Air Transport Services Group Inc (ATSG) 2006 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good morning and welcome the third quarter Conference Call for ABX Air. My name is Cherelle and I will serve as the moderator for today's call. Now I would like to introduce Joe Hete who is President and Chief Executive Officer of ABX Air. Mr. Hete, go ahead please.

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Thank you, Cherelle. I want to welcome our shareholders and other investors to our third quarter 2006 conference call. Quint Turner, our CFO is with me. He will cover our financial results and field some of your questions.

  • Today's call is to discuss our results for the third quarter ended September 30th and discuss events since our last call in August. We issued our third quarter news release and 10-Q yesterday. Both are available on our website at abxair.com.

  • Quint will cover our financial results for the quarter. Then I'll cover our operations and a few other matters. Finally, we will open the call to your questions.

  • Quint?

  • Quint Turner - CFO and PAO

  • Thanks, Joe. I need to begin by advising everyone that we may make projections or other forward-looking statements during the course of this call. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties, and our actual results and other future events may differ materially from those we describe here. I would like to refer to ABX Air's periodic reports that are filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission including our Form 10-K for the year-ended December '05 and the Form 10-Q for the quarter-ended September 30, 2006 which we filed yesterday.

  • These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from our projections. In addition during the course of the conference call we may describe certain non-GAAP financial measures which should be considered in addition to and not in place of the GAAP financial measures we included in our financial statements.

  • Now let's talk about our results. Overall our revenues and earnings for the third quarter of 2006 were in line with our expectations considering the changes in our business earlier this year. Revenues for the third quarter this year were 281.3 million with net earnings of 6.6 million or $0.11 per share. Revenues for the third quarter of 2005 were $369.9 million with net earnings of 7.4 million or $0.13 per share.

  • As we said in yesterday's news release the primary reason that our revenues and net earnings are lower than a year ago is DHL's decision which we announced last March to directly manage its line-haul business starting May 1st. Those operations contributed 74.8 million in revenues and 1.3 million in net earnings in the third quarter of 2005. In addition during the third quarter this year we took a $257,000 non-reimbursable impairment charge associated with certain aircraft we intended to sell which Joe will talk about shortly.

  • Excluding the effect of those two items from each year's results our third quarter earnings were 12% higher than 2005 third quarter earnings. It's also worth mentioning a couple other differences between our operations this year and last year that had an impact on quarterly and to some extent our full-year comparisons.

  • In the second half of 2005 in anticipation of the September integration of the Cincinnati and Wilmington Hubs we operated under a temporary revision to our Hub Services Agreement that reduced our base market potential while increasing our incremental market opportunities. On a net basis we did a little better under those terms in the third quarter of 2005 than we would have under the standard markets which were restored as of January 1st of this year. In addition through most of the third quarter of 2005 we continued to manage some third-party charter carriers on behalf of DHL that serviced some of their smaller markets. The management of these small charter aircraft were handed over to DHL late in the third quarter of 2005. Collectively the temporary Hub Services Amendment and the management of these small charter aircraft resulted in approximately $350,000 of earnings in the third quarter of 2005.

  • Year-to-date revenues through September were 954.1 million and net earnings at 21.1 million or $0.36 per share. This compares with 2005 revenues for the first nine months of 1.1 billion and net earnings of 21.2 million or $0.36 per share. Again the difference in revenues relates primary to line-haul. Lower earnings from our DHL operations were somewhat offset by strong results in our non-DHL charter operations and by a $2 million net increase in interest income from a combination of additional cash and higher yields.

  • Revenues generated from the company's two commercial contracts with DHL were 269.8 million representing 96% of total revenues for the third quarter. Net earnings of 3.6 million were 54.7% of our total earnings for the quarter. In the third quarter of 2005 DHL-generated revenues were 361 million with related net earnings of 5.2 million. Revenues for line-haul services declined approximately 74.7 million and 158.8 million during the third quarter and first nine months of 2006 compared to 2005. ABX did not have earnings from line-haul services in the second or third quarter of 2006, and earned 1.3 million during the first quarter of 2006.

  • Earnings from line-haul services were 1.3 million and 3.6 million during the third quarter and first nine months of 2005. As we previously explained ABX has two commercial agreements with DHL, in airport crew, maintenance and insurance or ACMI agreement and a Hub Services agreement. Under each agreement ABX Air earns a base mark up of 1.75% on eligible costs and has the opportunity to earn incremental mark ups from meeting certain quarterly cost goals as well as annual costs and service calls.

  • The third quarter results included 2.8 million in earnings from the base mark up and $781,000 from incremental mark ups. We earned approximately 78% of the maximum quarterly incremental mark up under the two agreements. ABX's net earnings from its ATMI and Hub Service agreements with DHL were 3.6 million in the third quarter of 2006 down from 5.2 million in the third quarter of '05. That was due primarily to the loss of DHL's line-haul business. It also reflects more base mark up revenue a year ago and the impairment charge this year. During the first nine months we earned $3 million in incremental mark ups under the two DHL agreements up from 2.4 million for the same period a year ago.

  • Under the ACMI agreement we flew greater than budgeted aircraft hours while incurring lower than budgeted aircraft maintenance expense. The higher incremental mark ups we have earned under Hub Service agreement through nine months was the result of processing more pieces than budgeted while minimizing additional cost during the quarter, especially the first quarter.

  • While our nine-month results are not necessarily indicative of our full-year performance at the end of the third quarter we were on pace to achieve near 100% of the maximum annual incremental cost-related performance mark up under the ACMI agreement but none under the Hub Services agreement. If that outlook proves to be correct for 2006 it would be the same result we achieve in 2005. The maximum amount of annual cost-related mark up available in both agreements is 81 basis points. On the same projected basis we are on pace to achieve annual mark up for performance against service goals equal to 80% of the maximum available under the ACMI agreement and 60% of the maximum under the Hub Service agreement. Last year we realized 60% of the maximum ACMI incremental but again none under the Hub Services agreement.

  • The maximum annual service mark up available is 25 basis points for ACMI and 75 basis points for Hub Services. During the third and fourth quarters of 2005 we incurred cost over-runs related to the Wilmington Hub integration. Recognizing the long-term nature of our relationship and our own impact on the fourth quarter of 2005 costs we elected not to pursue approximately 1.9 million in revenues for expenses related to that event.

  • This year the hub operation at Wilmington is running efficiently so we do not expect to forego any reimbursements we are otherwise eligible to receive. Once again our non-DHL business experienced rapid growth in the third quarter with continued strong expansion of our air charter operations. Revenues for the charter operations were 6.6 million for the quarter, up 62% over last year's third quarter, and 22% over this year's second quarter while maintaining a healthy 13% margin.

  • Other non-DHL earnings declined by 9% in the quarter mainly because we absorbed approximately $224,000 in start-up costs under new management contracts for the Postal Service's regional sorting centers in Memphis and Dallas. These contracts are volume-driven, not cost-driven. We expect each of them to generate approximately 5 million in annual revenue at full capacity with contribution to earnings beginning next year.

  • Cash flow generated from net earnings and depreciation and amortization was 55.2 million for the first nine months of 2006 compared to 51.6 million in the same period of 2005. Appreciation and amortization expenses increased 11.3% for the quarter to 11.6 million and 12% year-to-date to 34 million primarily from the two additional Boeing 767 aircraft that we have placed in service since June of last year.

  • We expect cash flow from depreciation and amortization to grow in the fourth quarter with the addition of a third 767 in September and perhaps a bit more from the fourth one which is due in late November. That will continue at least through 2008 as we add the eight additional 767s we acquired from Delta to our fleet. In September the Financial Accounting Standards Board issues a Statement of Financial Accounting Standard 158 requiring us to show our defined benefit plan liabilities on the balance sheet. The new requirement mandates that the defined benefit plan liabilities reflect projected benefit obligations including estimated benefits from expected salary levels in future years.

  • Like most other public companies ABX Air will adopt the requirement effective December 31st, 2006. As a result there will be a material impact on our 2007 balance sheet. For example if you were to apply the new requirements to our 2005 balance sheet our total liabilities would have been approximately 180.8 million higher and shareholders equity would have been approximately 187.2 million lower than reported. Additional explanation of the new rule appears in our 10-Q.

  • Now Joe Hete will review our operations for the quarter and our outlook for the rest of the year. Joe?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Thanks, Quint. Although I'm not unhappy with our financial results particularly given the loss of the line-haul business to me the more important news is that we had great service in 2006 and that will help our largest customer grow its share of the US market. At that same time the introduction of the ex-Delta 767 has gone extremely well.

  • Our on-time service in the DHL network continues to exceed 95% including any adverse weather or air traffic control delays and our performance against budgeted cost has been very good particularly in our ACMI operations. More important we're not the only one saying that. DHL's top executives were here in Wilmington last week to commend the ABX team and their other partners for our performance this year and celebrate the fact that an independent survey has shown that DHL service quality ranks right up there with the other major carriers in our business.

  • It's gratifying when an independent study confirms what you have known all along, that your people from the sorters to the mechanics and pilots are doing an outstanding job and meeting ever-higher performance requirements every month. This business is constantly in motion in more than one respect and our people just take it all in stride and get the job done.

  • As many of you know the third quarter of 2005 included the hub consolidation. That really drove up our costs for a month or so which meant that our third quarter revenues were that much higher as well. Those consolidation driven costs plus the migration of line-haul business this spring are the main reasons that our third quarter revenues this year are down from a year ago. On the earnings side we did much better.

  • Net income for the third quarter excluding the line-haul and the impairment charge was up about 12%. As Quint mentioned there were a number of other drivers of our revenues and earnings last year that we didn't benefit from this year. Even so a down quarter on the DHL side was substantially offset by good results on the non-DHL side of our business. Our ACMI work for DHL remains very solid. We are delivering exceptional service and while not as cost effective as I would like us to be we were still able to achieve $621,000 in incremental mark up on the ACMI side with a smaller operating fleet and fewer DHL block hours than we had a year ago.

  • I'm also pleased that through nine months we are again on track to potentially earn all of our annual cost-related ACMI mark up and 80% of our ACMI service target.

  • The fourth quarter is always a challenge, of course, but both of those indicators are ahead of where they were at this same point in time a year ago. We did earn some cost-related mark up in the third quarter on the Hub Services side primarily because package volumes were a bit higher than our forecast. As Quint mentioned it's a constant challenge to scale ever-higher hurdles for incremental mark up in Hub Services where labor and other costs continue to increase and volumes are difficult to predict.

  • For that reason we believe it is unlikely we will earn any cost-related mark up for Hub Services under our annual goal although we do expect to reach more than half of our target for service quality performance which would be a marked improvement from 2005. The DHL side of our business remains a consistent source of cash flow which we're reinvesting throughout our business and in new services as well.

  • We're always a bit anxious heading into the holiday season but I'm confident we can hit our own and DHL's targets barring any extreme weather. As we told you on our last conference call DHL exercised its option to remove 21 McDonald-Douglas DC-8 and 9s from our DHL dedicated fleet. And I also said that we will continue to cover depreciation on eight of those planes to keep their engines available as spares. That left us with a decision to make about the remaining 13 planes, 10 DC-8s and three DC-9s. We could keep them or put them to DHL at the lower of fair value or net book value.

  • After appraising them we decided the put option didn't make sense. We think we can do better by selling to other operators, parting them out or operating them for our ACMI customers. Those plans could change and we could face another impairment charge next year if the market shifts but we still think there's more economic value to be gained from those planes than by simply turning them over to DHL.

  • On the non-DHL side our results for the third quarter were very strong especially on the ACMI charter side. Three fully dedicated freighter 767 aircraft now are in our non-DHL fleet and a fourth is due before the end of the year. Charter block hours from Boeing 767s for the third quarter were up 68% versus the third quarter of 2005 continuing our success with the 767s. There is significant forward interest from new customers and DHL in the eight 767s we will add in 2007 and 2008 along with some opportunities for our DC-8s and 9s.

  • Earnings on our non-DHL business were up substantially but most of that came from the charter segment where our margin was 13% for the quarter and year-to-date. Earnings were a bit softer on our other segments mainly because of start-up costs at two additional sorting centers we are managing for the US Postal Service in Memphis and Dallas. We also booked less contract maintenance business from other airlines than we had in the past. As we have noted in previous conference calls our maintenance business can vary from quarter to quarter.

  • I told you on our last call that our focus would be to replace the earnings associated with the line-haul business as quickly as possible. That includes our new postal management contracts as they move toward capacity but it's mostly driven from the non-DHL ACMI side of our business. We truly expect the new planes to be very heavily subscribed as soon as they come into service. This strong customer demand has allowed us to look for those opportunities that provide the highest utilization of the planes and therefore the best revenue potential. A recent example is a flight from Los Angeles to Mexico and on to Central America six times a week. Over the 18-month term of the contract this flight would contribute approximately 14 million in revenues with our targeted returns. As of today our non-DHL ACMI business is scheduled into 13 different countries.

  • Our next 767 is anticipated to go in service in late November and is already committed to an existing customer. Eventually I'm also confident that we can continue to grow the rest of our non-DHL business as well with a combination of engineering and maintenance work along with sorting business for the US Postal Service.

  • With our partners we are continuing to pursue ways to leverage our expertise and the facilities in other ways as well. I know I've told you many times before that DHL's success in North America is our principal focus. You know and we know that there have been a lot of rumors about their commitment here. We don't question that commitment and we think that DHL's $150 million investment in Atlas last month further demonstrates their determination to lock up capacity between the US and Asia in anticipation of growing US market share.

  • Still we were pleased to see a column by John Mullen, Global CEO, DHL Express in a recent copy of DHL's employee publication. In that column he reconfirmed DHL's commitment to the US market. He told his employees that DHL has no intention of leaving North America. He explained that not only is DHL competitive with other major carriers and service quality, but that more than half of his top 100 customers worldwide are based in the United States.

  • If we cannot provide them with a competitive service in their home market how long do you think we can maintain their business elsewhere in the world? Success in the US, therefore, is of paramount importance. I know John well enough to know that he would never say to his employees if there was any question of that commitment, and I'm telling our employees at ABX Air that I have every confidence that we will be working with DHL and sharing in their success for some time to come.

  • Now, moderator, we are ready to take some questions.

  • Operator

  • Of course, thank you.

  • [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS].

  • The first question comes from the line of Monica Logani from Wall Street Access. You may proceed. Monica, your line is currently open.

  • Unidentified Participant

  • Yes hi guys. This is actually Mark from Wall Street Access.

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Mark.

  • Quint Turner - CFO and PAO

  • Hi Mark.

  • Unidentified Participant

  • I guess my first question is on the DHL hub side. Last quarter mark ups I guess were 0% which on less than expected packages. This quarter you're showing a 37% mark up. I guess given last quarter's bad estimate shouldn't the third quarter estimates been better I guess posting better than 37% mark up for the quarter?

  • Quint Turner - CFO and PAO

  • Well I think as Joe indicated the Hub Services environment I guess and contract in general is a little less predictable because volumes can vary and there are also the impacts of things like weather and so forth and they're more directly felt in the Hub Services environment. So that one tends to be a little more difficult to predict in general and certainly the goals we have are very aggressive.

  • As DHL continues to reduce its cost and we try to streamline our own efficiencies and so we felt that the 37% mark up that we earned certainly represented an improvement over what we had in the second quarter. As you may recall in the first quarter I think we got about 100% of what we could get in the Hub Services agreement. So if you kind of look at it on a year-to-date basis, Mark, we've done I would say pretty darn well on the Hub Services side. And as you know the ACMI mark up that we've realized has been consistently good.

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • And I think the good news in that though as well is the fact that the volumes were actually up from where they were the previous quarter which pretty much tracks with what DHL has reported. They're saying increased revenue in the third quarter versus second quarter for 2006.

  • Unidentified Participant

  • Okay I have one more question. I guess the third-party, ACMI, our estimates are showing the 280 charter block hours at about 3,300 a block rate hour, is that correct?

  • Quint Turner - CFO and PAO

  • Are you referring to how many, what the average block hours per aircraft was in the third quarter?

  • Unidentified Participant

  • Yes.

  • Quint Turner - CFO and PAO

  • Yes, that's pretty much on target. I mean in total for the third quarter we flew just under 1,700 block hours in total. Now keep in mind that also covers some aircraft that are not 767. We do a little bit of flying with a couple of DC-8s and then that third 767 as we mentioned earlier only came into service the latter part of September so effectively it was only out there for probably about ten working days out of the quarter.

  • Unidentified Participant

  • Okay.

  • Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of Helene Becker from Benchmark Company. You may proceed.

  • Helene Becker - Analyst

  • Thank you very much, Operator. Hi gentlemen.

  • Quint Turner - CFO and PAO

  • Hi Helene.

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Hi Helene.

  • Helene Becker - Analyst

  • So how many more postal service contracts are you bidding on and do you have an opportunity to get?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • There are no current bids that are out. Of course we're into the heavy part of the shipping season, Helene, so we don't anticipate that there will be more coming out until some time next year. I believe that out of what was originally supposed to have been bid this year, I think it was five in total, three of them have yet to be bid out.

  • At the same time we are looking at postal has asked us to look at operating a seasonal facility for them for the peak season during the month of December so we're putting some numbers together on that right now to see if we can make that work.

  • Helene Becker - Analyst

  • Oh okay, when will you hear?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Probably within the next couple of weeks.

  • Helene Becker - Analyst

  • Well obviously I guess now that I think about it. And then the other question I have there's been some discussion about, and I don't know that this will actually occur, but about allowing non-US entities to own more of US companies airlines than in the past. I mean I know Washington had been considering it and that may not come to pass with the change in Congress but is there a risk that DHL would want to own their own lift and get that lift -- start putting their own aircraft in the US market?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Well as I think from the standpoint of as you saw with their investment in [Polar] certainly where there's an opportunity for them to make an investment of that kind they would like to do that. As far as the foreign ownership rules go there really hasn't been much talk in terms of increasing the percentages. Most of that talk has centered on more control in regards to scheduling issues and things like that but not really changing the 25% voting and 49% actual ownership in those carriers. But if that does change I'm relatively confident that DHL would like to make an investment. I don't know that it would make sense to bring in a whole other operation per se but it would certainly give them an opportunity to make investments in [ABS] if they so desired.

  • Helene Becker - Analyst

  • Okay and then my last question is I know you explained this and I still don't quite understand why you're on track to receive no Hub Service this mark up. I don't understand that part of it.

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • In regards to the annual goals?

  • Helene Becker - Analyst

  • I guess yes because I though Quint said that you did well in the first quarter and then it said in the press release that you were on track to receive no mark up. And I guess you went through it but I guess I just don't understand the why of it.

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Okay keep in mind that on the annual goal the only parts that are the same with the quarterly goals is the first quarter. So in other words we do an annual plan based on the volumes we receive from DHL and put some cost to that. The first quarter of that annual plan is the same as our first quarter quarterly goal. From there on out each quarter that budget is refreshed with more current information so that the second quarter's budget for this year was nothing like what was in the annual plan. So you could conceivably hit a number of the quarters during the course of the year but not gain anything under the annual goals because they're two different metrics.

  • Helene Becker - Analyst

  • I see okay and then the volumes change every quarter and they get higher and higher as their volumes are increasing, right?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • That's correct.

  • Helene Becker - Analyst

  • Is that how to understand that, okay, thank you very much.

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • You're welcome.

  • Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of David Campbell from Thompson Davis & Company. You may proceed.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • Yes hi Joe and Quint. I don't know how much you can say about this but looking at the fourth quarter ACMI earnings you've been trending down in each quarter except for the first. Would you expect that to be down again in the fourth quarter compared to '05 fourth quarter?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Well I think compared to '05, David, there's certainly going to be a downward trend because of the number of aircraft that were moved from the fleet if for no other reason than that depreciation will no longer be part of the DHL network. Keep in mind last year when the hub consolidation occurred they were still trying to sort through what the optimum network was. So going into this year's fourth quarter I think one thing is for certain in that there will be less flying year-over-year basis fourth quarter of 2006 than what there was in '05. If there's less flying there's less expenses which would mean a lower mark up, lower net base mark up potential.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • Right, right and the incremental can't make up for that?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Well because of the performance where we did extremely well last year and the incremental was applied against the total cost base so if the total cost base is down and we maxed on both years then certainly it's still going to be down on a year-over-year basis.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • On the other hand in the Hub Services where you lost money a year ago in the fourth quarter that could be well in the profit power. I'm including, I gather I better go back on my notes, the incremental payments?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • As Quint mentioned earlier last year we agreed to absorb some of the cost to over-run in deference to the difficulties that we had with the hub consolidation. And we also agreed to give back 800,000 or 900,000 in service mark up which we had earned but elected not to collect. So certainly this year as we sit here today we're rapidly approaching halfway through the quarter and we don't anticipate having any similar situations this year.

  • Quint Turner - CFO and PAO

  • David, just a couple of things to add there is in terms of the ACMI expenses for the fourth quarter you would be better to look at the expenses in the third quarter and assume some increase due to the seasonal flying. But it's a better representation of what to expect for fourth quarter than you would get from looking at fourth quarter of 2005.

  • And as Joe mentioned on the ACMI contract as far as annual goals we are trending as good or slightly better I guess on the service goals, slightly better than we did in 2005. And as you mention on the Hub Services side last year we didn't receive anything in terms of cost or service on the Hub Services contract per annual incentive. This year as we mentioned in the release we're on track to achieve about 60% of the service mark up that we would be entitled to and on the cost side as Joe mentioned [inaudible] a minute ago we're not expecting to receive any of that annual mark up. We're also not expecting to have any non-reimbursed expenses such as we had last year related to the integration volumes. So all and all if you compare this fourth quarter of this year to next year we feel pretty good about how that comparison will work.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • I guess it would be better to go back to -- compared to the fourth quarter of '04 and reduce -- reduced revenues of course.

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Yes that's probably a better comparison.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • Okay and will there be charge, start-up costs for the [Paulson] service contracts in the fourth quarter?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Yes we anticipate that we'll still continue to as we ramp up the volumes and improve the efficiencies because essentially you're starting from scratch similar to what we did when we had the Indianapolis facility but we fully anticipate that they will be making positive contributions to the bottom line when we get to 2007.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • Right and the other thing I wanted to ask you about was the maintenance revenues. I think I heard you right, Joe, when you said that they were lower in the third quarter than a year ago, is that correct?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Yes sir.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • I don't have that -- I'm not at my office so I don't have the press release. Did you put in the exact revenues in the press release?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • We did not give any of the specific details related to the all Other category in the non-DHL side.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • Other than charter, charter you gave, right?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • That's a separate segment.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • Right. And so the other revenues for the quarter there were increases in some other categories I think if that's -- my numbers look right. Looks like there had to be some increases in the freight business or postal service business. Can you elaborate a little on that?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Well again we did have additional revenues in the third quarter because of the two new postal facilities. One opened the second week of September, and the last one, the Memphis facility opened in the last week of September. So you're talking a few hundred thousand dollars in revenue just from those additional postal facilities coming on line.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • Those aren't the ones that you're -- that's not Memphis and the other one, those are two others?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Those are Memphis and Dallas.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • Memphis and Dallas. Where are you incurring the start-up cost now and therefore not earning any money is that correct?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • That's correct.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • Okay so your outlook for 2007 in terms of ACMI revenues I would that would be -- continue to trend lower from the aircraft they took out of the fleet and then Hub Services revenues depends a lot on DHL's ground growth. Is that one way to look at it?

  • Quint Turner - CFO and PAO

  • Yes and then the other piece you have to factor in is that effective January 1st DHL will take over the operation of the Allentown hub facility so that would have to be backed out. But certainly the Hub Services is 99% driven by volume so as volume grows it's going to require more manpower within the hub operations to move that volume, but then there's going to a corresponding offset in the Allentown hub loss.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • That was about 10 million a year wasn't it?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • It's probably a little more than that, David. It's probably closer to 15.

  • David Campbell - Analyst

  • 20 million, okay. Okay thanks for your help.

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Thanks, David.

  • Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of [Matt Dautch] from First Capital Alliance. You may proceed.

  • Matt Dautch - Analyst

  • Hi how are you gentlemen?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Quite good.

  • Matt Dautch - Analyst

  • Thank you for a good quarter. We're excited about the non-DHL business. I'd like to get a better perception on the direction of DHL's business? It sounds like service and performance are improving. Are there any metrics that you can provide indicating customer satisfaction and then also as a follow up also is there any else from an infrastructure perspective at ABX Air that might not be obvious that might impact future quarter performance in terms of service and operations?

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Let me take the easiest one first which was the second question in terms of things that may impact future quarter performance. To date we have received no input from DHL that they plan to make any changes in the level of services that we provide for them today other than the prior reference and David's question in regards to the Allentown hub operation loss.

  • Going to your first question in terms of how's DHL performing and customer perception. As I mentioned in my opening remarks there was recently an independent study performed in terms of how DHL is performing against their two primary competitors Federal Express and UPS and I think the results pretty much speak for what the customer would be seeing in that DHL finished neck and neck with UPS in terms of providing service on time for 10:30 and then Federal Express was a little over two full percentage points behind those two. So that aside those are things we can look at. Other than that you'd have to go to industry publications etcetera or DHL folks themselves to find out what the market thinks of their service.

  • Matt Dautch - Analyst

  • Okay thank you.

  • Operator

  • There appears to be no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to our host Mr. Joe Hete for any closing remarks.

  • Joe Hete - President and CEO

  • Thank you Cherelle. A number of our stockholders have been calling to tell us that they are very disappointed in our stock price. I'm more than disappointed. I'm extremely unhappy about it. I think that ABX Air is a much better company and our prospects much brighter today when our stock is trading at about a 25% discount compared to a year ago when we were at $7.50. We are growing. We are very profitable. We are generating strong cash flow from operations and we have a very strong balance sheet. When more investors recognize the things we have achieved and see where we are headed I think that they will find that we represent and excellent investment. In the meantime we will continue to manage the company to make sure that your continued confidence in us is well-founded. Thank you for joining on this call today.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen thank you for your attendance in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.