Astronics Corp (ATRO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Astronics Corporation Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Results. (Operator Instructions)

問候。歡迎閱讀 Astronics Corporation 2022 財年第四季度財務業績。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Craig Mychajluk, Investor Relations. You may begin.

我現在將會議轉交給您的主持人 Craig Mychajluk，投資者關係部。你可以開始了。

Yes. Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. We certainly appreciate your time today and your interest in Astronics. On the call here with me are Pete Gundermann, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Burney, our Chief Financial Officer.

是的。謝謝，大家下午好。我們非常感謝您今天的時間以及您對 Astronics 的興趣。和我一起來的是我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官皮特·岡德曼 (Pete Gundermann)；和我們的首席財務官 Dave Burney。

You should have a copy of our fourth quarter and full-year 2022 financial results, which we released just after the market closed today. If you do not have the release, you can find it on our website, astronics.com.

您應該有一份我們今天收市後發布的第四季度和 2022 年全年財務業績的副本。如果您沒有該版本，您可以在我們的網站 astronics.com 上找到它。

As you are aware, we may make some forward-looking statements during the formal discussion and the Q&A session of this conference call. These statements apply to future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties as well as other factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from what is stated here today. These risks and uncertainties and other factors are provided in the earnings release and with other documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. You can find those documents on our website or at sec.gov.

如您所知，我們可能會在本次電話會議的正式討論和問答環節中做出一些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述適用於受風險和不確定性以及可能導致實際結果與今天此處陳述的內容大不相同的其他因素影響的未來事件。這些風險和不確定性以及其他因素在收益發布以及提交給美國證券交易委員會的其他文件中提供。您可以在我們的網站或 sec.gov 上找到這些文件。

During today's call, we will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures. We believe these will be useful in evaluating our performance. You should not consider the presentation of this additional information in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. We have provided reconciliations of non-GAAP measures with comparable GAAP measures in the tables that accompany today's release.

在今天的電話會議中，我們還將討論一些非 GAAP 財務指標。我們相信這些將有助於評估我們的表現。您不應孤立地考慮此附加信息的呈現或作為根據 GAAP 編制的結果的替代。我們在今天發布的表格中提供了非 GAAP 措施與可比較的 GAAP 措施的調節。

With that, let me turn it over to Pete to begin. Pete?

有了這個，讓我把它交給皮特開始。皮特？

Thanks, Craig, and good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for tuning in for our fourth quarter conference call. As usual, or as is often the case, I've tried to simplify the headlines for the quarter and the things that I would broadly categorize and is good news, things that I think will be well received by our investor base and some other things that are less good, maybe bad challenges that we want to also give equal time to. And we will kind of close with -- turning our attention away from 2022 and turning towards 2023 and talking about what we expect to happen in the current year and how we think it's going to play out, recognizing that it's pretty early and a lot can happen.

謝謝，克雷格，大家下午好。感謝您收聽我們的第四季度電話會議。像往常一樣，或者像往常一樣，我試圖簡化本季度的頭條新聞和我將大致分類的事情，這是個好消息，我認為我們的投資者群體會很好地接受的事情和其他一些事情那些不太好的，也許是壞的挑戰，我們也想給予同樣的時間。我們將有點接近 - 將我們的注意力從 2022 年轉向 2023 年，並討論我們預計今年會發生什麼以及我們認為它會如何發揮作用，認識到現在還為時過早而且很多可以發生。

So the good news headlines, strong demand continues as evidenced by our bookings, $182 million in bookings is a very solid performance, our second highest since COVID came in and a very good close for the year. We'll talk in detail about bookings and how that's translated into a record backlog and how that sets us up for a solid opening frame for 2023. We'll also talk about some reasons why we think that strong bookings level is very likely to continue based on how our market is evolving and how some of our programs are playing out.

因此，好消息頭條，我們的預訂量證明需求持續強勁，1.82 億美元的預訂量是非常穩健的表現，是我們自 COVID 進來以來的第二高，也是今年的一個非常好的收盤價。我們將詳細討論預訂以及預訂如何轉化為創紀錄的積壓，以及這如何為 2023 年的堅實開放框架做好準備。我們還將討論為什麼我們認為強勁的預訂水平很可能會持續下去的一些原因基於我們的市場如何發展以及我們的一些計劃如何發揮作用。

Second positive good news headline is that the revenue ramp that we've been looking for, we believe, has begun. We have since COVID struck -- been stuck in a quarterly revenue band of about USD105 million to USD130 million and just seem to have a really hard time getting beyond that level until the fourth quarter, $159 million, frankly, was higher than we thought we would be as we started the quarter, we think it's a positive indicator. Again, as we head into 2023, and it gives us more confidence that our supply chain is pulling out of the (inaudible) that it was in for most of the second half of 2021 and the first half or 2/3 of 2022. Not to say it's perfect, but we think it's getting better, not getting worse.

第二個好消息是我們一直在尋找的收入增長，我們相信，已經開始了。自從 COVID 來襲以來，我們一直處於大約 1.05 億美元至 1.3 億美元的季度收入區間，而且似乎很難超過這一水平，直到第四季度，坦率地說，1.59 億美元高於我們的預期當我們開始本季度時，我們認為這是一個積極的指標。同樣，隨著我們進入 2023 年，這讓我們更有信心，我們的供應鏈正在擺脫 2021 年下半年大部分時間和 2022 年上半年或 2/3 的（聽不清）狀態。不是要說它是完美的，但我們認為它正在變得更好，而不是變得更糟。

Third good news headline is that we got our refinance completed that was technically a January event, not a fourth quarter event, but there was a lot happening behind the scenes in the fourth quarter to bring that about, and we want to talk that over in adequate detail when we get to it.

第三個好消息是，我們完成了再融資，從技術上講，這是一月份的事件，而不是第四季度的事件，但第四季度的幕後發生了很多事情，我們想在當我們到達它時有足夠的細節。

If I flip over to the other side of the coin kind of the bad news things that you might pick up on or might be concerned about, margins were under pressure, primarily due to inflation that we've incurred and some special charges that we have paid to compensate for supply chain, that was apparent if you look at our cost structure, our margins for the quarter. Dave will talk through that in some detail. And also during the quarter, it became apparent that a couple of programs that we think overall long term, are going to be very positive contributors to our success, are going to be delayed over what we thought they would be. I'm talking specifically about a major test program that we've talked about before for the Army of 4549/T (inaudible) it's a radio test program.

如果我翻到硬幣的另一面，你可能會注意到或可能擔心的壞消息，利潤率面臨壓力，這主要是由於我們已經發生的通貨膨脹和我們有一些特殊費用支付補償供應鏈，如果你看看我們的成本結構，我們本季度的利潤率，這是顯而易見的。戴夫將詳細討論這一點。而且在本季度，很明顯，我們認為總體上長期來看的幾個計劃將對我們的成功做出非常積極的貢獻，但將比我們認為的要推遲。我說的是我們之前針對陸軍 4549/T（聽不清）的一個主要測試程序，它是一個無線電測試程序。

And four, good news, bad news, good news is that we're on the Bell team and Bell was selected by Army -- for the U.S. Army for that program. Bad news is, as everybody probably knows, it's under protest. And that means that we're kind of at a standing stop, whereas we were hoping by now to be underway.

第四，好消息，壞消息，好消息是我們加入了貝爾團隊，貝爾被陸軍選中——為美國陸軍參加那個項目。壞消息是，正如每個人可能知道的那樣，它正在受到抗議。這意味著我們有點停滯不前，而我們現在希望能夠繼續進行。

We'll turn our attention at the end of 2023 preview. We are maintaining earlier guidance of USD640 million to USD680 million. That's a big step up from 2022 we realized, but we believe we have some pretty solid reasons to think that that's achievable. Supply chain, of course, will be critical. And we'll tell you what we know about our supply chain, but it's early. We think that USD640 million to USD680 million range has upside potential and downside risk, depending on how the supply chain performs as we get into the first half of 2023.

我們將在 2023 年底預覽時轉移注意力。我們維持之前 6.4 億美元至 6.8 億美元的指引。這是我們意識到的 2022 年的一大進步，但我們相信我們有一些非常充分的理由認為這是可以實現的。當然，供應鏈至關重要。我們會告訴你我們對供應鏈的了解，但現在還為時過早。我們認為 6.4 億美元至 6.8 億美元的範圍具有上行潛力和下行風險，這取決於我們進入 2023 年上半年時供應鏈的表現。

So taking those topics in the range I just discussed, demand continues to be very strong. Fourth quarter bookings of $182 million, as I mentioned, second highest booking result since COVID, only behind the previous quarter, the third quarter of 2022. Bookings for all of '22 were $690 million, that's a book-to-bill of 1.29 for the year and sets us up with a record backlog of $571 million as we began 2023. You might be interested to know that our previous record backlog pre-COVID was $416 million in late 2018. That was a year when we did about $800 million in revenue. So $416 million was our previous high. Today, we're at $571 million or as we entered the first quarter, we were at $571 million. It's a big step up.

因此，考慮到我剛才討論的範圍內的這些主題，需求仍然非常強勁。正如我提到的，第四季度的預訂量為 1.82 億美元，這是自 COVID 以來的第二高預訂結果，僅次於上一季度，即 2022 年第三季度。22 年全年的預訂量為 6.9 億美元，訂單出貨比為 1.29這一年，我們在 2023 年開始時創造了 5.71 億美元的積壓記錄。您可能有興趣知道，我們之前在 COVID 之前的積壓記錄是 2018 年底的 4.16 億美元。那一年我們做了大約 8 億美元收入。所以 4.16 億美元是我們之前的高點。今天，我們的收入為 5.71 億美元，或者當我們進入第一季度時，我們的收入為 5.71 億美元。這是一個很大的進步。

Of that $571 million, $451 million is scheduled for delivery in 2023. Given the range we talked about for 2023, that leaves a couple of hundred million of what we might call book and ship over the course of the year in the normal course, that's a pretty achievable number. That's pretty low. Our supply chain gives us reason to be a little bit cautious about, it's one thing to get the order, it's another thing to turn on to ship it. But $200 million over the course of 12 months, book and ship is pretty modest compared to what we then used to.

在這 5.71 億美元中，有 4.51 億美元計劃在 2023 年交付。考慮到我們談到的 2023 年的範圍，在正常情況下，我們可能會在一年中稱之為預訂和發貨的數億美元，那就是一個相當可實現的數字。這很低。我們的供應鏈讓我們有理由保持謹慎，獲得訂單是一回事，開始發貨又是另一回事。但在 12 個月的時間裡，預訂和發貨的 2 億美元與我們當時使用的相比是相當低的。

We'd expect to see a strong demand continue for a couple of reasons. Our recovery so far has largely been based on the narrow-body regional market for the commercial transport industry. But now it appears wide-body long-haul is coming back pretty strongly. Pre-COVID, we were approximately 50-50 narrow-body, wide body. Wide-bodies have spent most of the COVID parked in the desert; narrow-bodies are where the action has been as regional travel barriers have come down. But now with wide-body coming back, we have reason to believe that we're going to see another kind of source of strength from demand in the market, and we're looking forward to that.

由於幾個原因，我們預計會看到強勁的需求。到目前為止，我們的複蘇主要基於商業運輸行業的窄體區域市場。但現在看來，寬體長途航班正在強勢回歸。在 COVID 之前，我們大約有 50-50 個窄體、寬體。寬體機已將大部分 COVID 停在沙漠中；隨著區域旅行障礙的減少，窄體飛機成為了行動的方向。但現在隨著寬體機的回歸，我們有理由相信，我們將從市場需求中看到另一種力量來源，我們對此充滿期待。

You probably read the headlines. They're all over the place. Airlines are pulling wide-body airplanes out of storage and pressing them back into service that not too long ago, most experts in the industry were predicting would never fly again, A380s, A340s, even some 747s, but demand has come back strong enough that airlines are taking the expense of resurrecting these airplanes, and that's good for us. Airplane's flying is good for us. Similarly, we're also along the way, production rates for the prominent wide-body airplanes today, specifically 787 at Boeing and A350, they're talking about upward revisions for plans there. Now there are challenges, there are capacity issues to come across. But I guess my point is that as we look at what's been driving our demand, it's primarily the narrow-body. Now we think wide-body is -- and we've seen this happening over the last few quarters, we think wide-body is going to be more and more of a contributor as we go forward. And that's good for a company like us.

你可能讀過頭條新聞。他們到處都是。航空公司正在將寬體飛機從倉庫中取出並重新投入使用，不久前，業內大多數專家預測，A380、A340，甚至一些 747 將永遠不會再飛，但需求已經恢復到足夠強勁的水平航空公司正在承擔恢復這些飛機的費用，這對我們有好處。飛機的飛行對我們有好處。同樣，我們也在前進，今天著名的寬體飛機的生產率，特別是波音公司的 787 和 A350，他們正在談論那裡的計劃向上修訂。現在有挑戰，有能力問題。但我想我的觀點是，當我們審視推動需求的因素時，主要是窄體機。現在我們認為寬體是——我們在過去幾個季度看到了這種情況，我們認為隨著我們前進，寬體將成為越來越多的貢獻者。這對像我們這樣的公司來說是件好事。

Also, along these lines, the opening up of China from travel restrictions is a very positive sign. Geographically, the recovery in the commercial airline industry has been driven by the U.S. and by Europe. Asia has lagged. China is obviously a very popular location. In Asia, it's hard for the industry worldwide to recover without China recovering. And China opening up 2 less strenuous travel restrictions as they did in early December, we think it's going to have a very positive impact on our industry overall.

此外，按照這些思路，中國從旅行限制中開放是一個非常積極的跡象。從地域上看，商業航空業的複蘇是由美國和歐洲推動的。亞洲落後了。中國顯然是一個非常受歡迎的地方。在亞洲，沒有中國的複蘇，全球的產業就很難復蘇。與 12 月初一樣，中國開放了 2 個不那麼嚴格的旅行限制，我們認為這將對我們整個行業產生非常積極的影響。

The second issue I wanted to call attention to, reason why we think demand is going to continue to be pretty strong is that, while we have talked about a number of pretty major program wins over the last year, those program wins are not really reflected in our booking level to date. We think these programs collectively are going to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. But today, if I were to add them up in backlog, they're probably less than $20 million cumulative. And I'm talking about programs that we've announced -- Southwest win that we announced probably 1.5 years ago now, an antenna program that we're doing with Safran, the 4549/T program, some activity that we have going in the electric airplane market and also FLRAA.

我想提請注意的第二個問題，我們認為需求將繼續非常強勁的原因是，雖然我們在去年談到了一些非常重要的項目勝利，但這些項目勝利並沒有真正反映出來在我們迄今為止的預訂水平。我們認為這些項目的總價值將達到數億美元。但是今天，如果我將它們加到積壓訂單中，它們可能累計不到 2000 萬美元。我說的是我們已經宣布的計劃——我們大概在 1.5 年前宣布的西南勝利，我們正在與賽峰集團合作的天線計劃，4549/T 計劃，我們正在進行的一些活動電動飛機市場和 FLRAA。

I guess we haven't talked at a conference call since the Bell decision came down. I think most people who follow our company know this, but we are on the Bell team. We're doing the most of the electrical system right after generation to end-use system and of course, assuming the protest doesn't disrupt things, we expect this program will be a real significant program, hard to overstate its significance for our company over the long haul. We're under a little bit of a gag order. I can't say much more than that. And we certainly don't know what the inner workings are of the protest that's going on currently. But that is one that we think is a major driver.

我想自從 Bell 的決定下來後，我們還沒有在電話會議上談過話。我想大多數關注我們公司的人都知道這一點，但我們是貝爾團隊的。我們正在做大部分的電氣系統，在生成後立即到最終使用系統，當然，假設抗議不會破壞事物，我們預計這個項目將是一個真正重要的項目，很難誇大它對我們公司的重要性從長遠來看。我們收到了一些禁言令。我不能說更多。我們當然不知道當前正在進行的抗議活動的內部運作方式。但我們認為這是一個主要驅動因素。

And again, there are a couple of other programs that we're not at liberty to talk about that are similarly significant, and all of these we expect to start contributing to bookings and to demand in the coming quarters. But as of today or as of the end of the fourth quarter, I think it was less than $20 million all of these things cumulatively.

再一次，我們不能隨意談論其他幾個同樣重要的項目，我們希望所有這些項目在未來幾個季度開始為預訂和需求做出貢獻。但截至今天或截至第四季度末，我認為所有這些加起來還不到 2000 萬美元。

So I want to switch from bookings and demand to the revenue ramp, as I mentioned, since COVID hit, we've really been stuck in a band of USD105 million to USD130 million in bookings or -- excuse me, in quarterly revenue, even though bookings have been much higher, our quarter 4 revenue of $159 million is a significant step-up towards where we need to be in 2023 to meet our goals and to satisfy customer demand. The limiting factor through 2022 has been first supply chain and second people, much more of a supply chain issue than a people issue. And when all is said and done, we're going to look back on 2022 as a year of really strong demand and really disrupted supply chains, where we had 20% growth and usually, we would expect 20% growth to be the cause for celebration. But frankly, we were aiming a lot higher when the year started.

所以我想從預訂和需求轉向收入增長，正如我提到的，自從 COVID 爆發以來，我們的預訂確實一直停留在 1.05 億美元到 1.3 億美元的範圍內，或者——對不起，季度收入，甚至儘管預訂量要高得多，但我們第 4 季度 1.59 億美元的收入是朝著我們在 2023 年實現目標和滿足客戶需求所需達到的目標邁出的重要一步。到 2022 年的限制因素首先是供應鏈，其次是人員，更多的是供應鏈問題而不是人員問題。歸根結底，我們將回顧 2022 年，這是需求非常強勁且供應鏈真正中斷的一年，我們實現了 20% 的增長，通常我們預計 20% 的增長將成為慶典。但坦率地說，年初時我們的目標要高得多。

We saw the demand coming back. Our original plans for 2022 anticipated growth well beyond 20%. We ended up at 20% because we were constrained by supply chains. And while our supply chain is not perfect, as I mentioned earlier, we do feel it is improving. A year ago, we saw regular negative surprise disruptions coming across the line. Today, there are more and more positive surprises and fewer and fewer negative surprises. The hiccups still happen, but they are fewer and we're better at responding to them, frankly. A year ago, we weren't used to dealing with a level of detail and climbing down our supply chain to our suppliers, suppliers as well as effectively as we can and do today. So while the hiccups happen, they're fewer and fewer, and we're better and better at responding to them.

我們看到需求回來了。我們最初的 2022 年計劃預計增長將遠遠超過 20%。由於我們受到供應鏈的限制，我們最終達到了 20%。雖然我們的供應鏈並不完美，正如我之前提到的，但我們確實感到它正在改善。一年前，我們看到生產線經常出現負面意外中斷。今天，積極的驚喜越來越多，消極的驚喜越來越少。問題仍然存在，但坦率地說，它們變少了，而且我們更善於應對。一年前，我們不習慣處理一定程度的細節，也不習慣像今天這樣有效地沿著我們的供應鏈向下爬到我們的供應商、供應商。因此，當出現問題時，它們會越來越少，而我們對它們的反應也越來越好。

Our refi-refinance, it was a complicated and drawn-out process. We finally completed it on January 19th, as most of you undoubtedly know, it's a deal that we feel is adequate, get us through the rest of the coverage recovery and frankly, it reflects the reality of our macroeconomic environment and the position that the company is in at this point in the cycle. We need to perform. But if we can do what we think we can do, it should be an adequate facility for us for the time being, and Dave will cover some of those details in just a minute.

我們的再融資，這是一個複雜而漫長的過程。我們終於在 1 月 19 日完成了它，正如你們大多數人無疑知道的那樣，這是我們認為足夠的交易，幫助我們完成其餘的覆蓋範圍恢復，坦率地說，它反映了我們宏觀經濟環境的現實和公司的立場正處於循環中的這一點。我們需要表現。但是，如果我們能做我們認為我們能做的事，那麼暫時對我們來說應該是一個足夠的設施，Dave 將在一分鐘內介紹其中的一些細節。

The bad news headlines, 2 of them I talked about, margins under pressure. We had elevated input costs, and those costs are going to take some time to sort out. We have portions of our business where we can react pretty quickly. The order cycles are short. Frankly, a lot of the strong bookings that we've been taking are very helpful because we've been able to work in pricing that reflects the current cost structure. It's the longer-term older contracts that, in any case is tend to poses problems.

壞消息頭條，我談到了其中的兩個，利潤率面臨壓力。我們增加了投入成本，這些成本需要一些時間才能解決。我們的部分業務可以很快做出反應。訂貨週期短。坦率地說，我們一直在接受的許多強有力的預訂都非常有幫助，因為我們已經能夠在反映當前成本結構的定價中工作。無論如何，長期的舊合同往往會帶來問題。

We also tend to run into troubles when supply chain has a hiccup and we have to make what we call spot buys or expedite fees, those activities are getting fewer and fewer. They are winding down and we expect them to continue to wind down, but they were a pretty major source of margin pressure or erosion in the fourth quarter. As we move through 2023, we expect that position to improve.

當供應鏈出現問題時，我們也往往會遇到麻煩，我們不得不進行所謂的現貨購買或加快費用，這些活動越來越少。它們正在逐漸減少，我們預計它們將繼續減少，但它們是第四季度利潤率壓力或侵蝕的一個相當主要的來源。隨著 2023 年的到來，我們預計這一狀況會有所改善。

A couple of program delays that I mentioned earlier, 4549/T, the Army radio test program. As a reminder, we were identified or named back in August as the winner of a technical evaluation of the Army ran between a product we provided and a couple -- and those are the couple of competitors. The next step at that point was to negotiate and develop a sole source production contract or a direct to procurement. Going forward, we expected that direct to procurement would be in place probably by now, if not by the end of the year.

我之前提到的幾個程序延遲，4549/T，陸軍無線電測試程序。提醒一下，我們在 8 月份被確定或命名為陸軍技術評估的獲勝者，該評估在我們提供的產品和一對產品之間運行——而這些是一對競爭對手。此時的下一步是談判和製定單一來源生產合同或直接採購。展望未來，我們預計直接採購可能到現在就到位，如果不是到今年年底的話。

It's become apparent now that it's going to be much later than that. We're now thinking as we understand on these processes that this could last until middle of the year or even a little bit later before we get under contract and before that program starts seriously contributing. And depending on long lead funding and a couple of other things that are to be determined. It's unclear at this point when that program is going to contribute. But we believe that, that order will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $150 million to a couple of hundred million in revenue. We expect that will run over 2 to 3 years, and we're eager to get added, but we just can't get going until the army wants us to.

現在很明顯，它會比那晚得多。根據我們對這些流程的理解，我們現在正在考慮，這可能會持續到今年年中，甚至更晚一點，然後我們才能簽訂合同，並且在該計劃開始認真做出貢獻之前。並取決於長期領先的資金和其他一些有待確定的事情。目前尚不清楚該計劃何時會做出貢獻。但我們相信，該訂單的收入將在 1.5 億美元到數億美元之間。我們預計這將持續 2 到 3 年，並且我們渴望加入，但在軍隊希望我們這樣做之前我們無法開始。

The other program that is stretching out because of the protest is the FLRAA program that I talked about earlier. We thought that we would be underway by now and now it appears a protest period will last at least to April 6th or 7th I believe it is. And so we will not be under contract. We've basically down the water at this point. So that will be a second quarter start, we believe, rather than a first quarter start.

另一個因抗議而延期的計劃是我之前談到的 FLRAA 計劃。我們原以為我們現在會開始，現在看來抗議期至少會持續到 4 月 6 日或 7 日，我相信是這樣。所以我們不會簽訂合同。在這一點上，我們基本上已經失敗了。因此，我們相信這將是第二季度的開始，而不是第一季度的開始。

With that amount of coverage, I think I'll turn it over to Dave at this point. He's got some Q4 specifics to talk through and also a summary of our refinance. Dave?

有了這麼多的報導，我想我現在會把它交給戴夫。他有一些第四季度的細節要談，還有我們再融資的總結。戴夫？

Okay. Thanks, Pete. Following on to some of the points Pete made with regard to our sales and bookings, they continue to improve through the fourth quarter. The primary driver for both bookings and sales increase was the commercial transport market. Sales to this market were up 76% to about $103 million, which was an increase of a little over $44 million from last year's fourth quarter and up just over $24 million sequentially from the third quarter. Globally air travel continues to improve, driving demand for the aircraft retrofit spend and increasing OEM build rates.

好的。謝謝，皮特。繼皮特就我們的銷售和預訂提出的一些觀點之後，他們在第四季度繼續改善。預訂量和銷售額增長的主要驅動力是商業運輸市場。該市場的銷售額增長了 76%，達到約 1.03 億美元，比去年第四季度增加了 4400 萬美元多一點，比第三季度增加了 2400 萬多美元。全球航空旅行持續改善，推動了對飛機改裝支出的需求，並提高了 OEM 製造率。

Now there are a lot of puts and takes to compare last year's P&L to this year's, but the main driver was the increased margin on the sales ramp, partially offset by higher input costs. And additionally, the 2021 fourth quarter had the benefit of $7.5 million from the AMGP grant program and a $5 million gain from the building that we sold in that quarter. This was partially offset in that quarter by a full-year's accrual for our 401(k) cost, as we reinstated the company contribution in the fourth quarter of last year and higher legal fees.

現在有很多看跌期權可以將去年的損益與今年的進行比較，但主要驅動因素是銷售量增加的利潤率，部分被更高的投入成本所抵消。此外，2021 年第四季度從 AMGP 贈款計劃中獲得了 750 萬美元的收益，並從我們在該季度出售的建築物中獲得了 500 萬美元的收益。這在該季度被我們 401(k) 成本的全年應計費用部分抵消，因為我們在去年第四季度恢復了公司供款和更高的法律費用。

The 2022 fourth quarter, on the other hand, had the benefit of a $1.5 million gain relating to the litigation settlement. Contribution margin on incremental sales is running at about 40% right now. This is somewhat lower than our pre-pandemic contribution margins, which were typically closer to 45% to 50%. These are being impacted by input costs on labor and materials. The margins continue to face headwinds, primarily from supply chain predictability, which impacts shop floor efficiency as well as increased input costs that eventually will gradually be mitigated as we pass on these costs through new contracts.

另一方面，2022 年第四季度受益於與訴訟和解相關的 150 萬美元收益。增量銷售的邊際收益目前約為 40%。這略低於我們在大流行前的邊際貢獻率，後者通常接近 45% 至 50%。這些受到勞動力和材料投入成本的影響。利潤率繼續面臨阻力，主要來自供應鏈的可預測性，這會影響車間效率以及增加的投入成本，隨著我們通過新合同轉嫁這些成本，這些成本最終將逐漸減輕。

It does appear that the trajectory of the inflation that we experienced through 2021 and early '22, has slowed significantly. Additionally, we continue to source hard-to-find parts on the spot market, which is a significant impact to our margins. In the fourth quarter, these spot buys were roughly $2 million above our standard cost for these parts. We are expecting the impact of these spot buys to reduce as we move through this year.

看起來我們在 2021 年和 22 年初經歷的通貨膨脹軌跡已經顯著放緩。此外，我們繼續在現貨市場上採購難以找到的零件，這對我們的利潤率產生了重大影響。在第四季度，這些現貨採購比我們這些零件的標準成本高出大約 200 萬美元。我們預計這些現貨購買的影響會隨著今年的推移而減少。

Switching to the balance sheet and cash flow for the company. Cash flow from operations for the fourth quarter improved and was a positive $10.8 million as our net loss improved as compared with the prior quarters this year. Net working capital remained flat with the third quarter and inventory growth was minimal during the quarter, which was a significant improvement over the last 3 quarters where inventory levels increased roughly $34 million during the first 3 quarters of 2022. Increased receivables were offset by lower prepaid expenses and increased accounts payable. We are forecasting our inventory levels to drop as we move through the year as supply chain stabilizes and the shop floor becomes more efficient.

切換到公司的資產負債表和現金流。與今年前幾個季度相比，我們的淨虧損有所改善，因此第四季度的運營現金流有所改善，為正值 1,080 萬美元。淨營運資金與第三季度持平，本季度庫存增長微乎其微，這比過去三個季度有了顯著改善，過去三個季度的庫存水平在 2022 年前三個季度增加了約 3400 萬美元。應收賬款的增加被預付款項的減少所抵消支出和應付賬款增加。隨著供應鏈的穩定和車間效率的提高，我們預測我們的庫存水平將隨著今年的推移而下降。

CapEx for the quarter was $3.4 million, a little below our forecast. We're forecasting CapEx for 2023 to be in the range of USD17 million to USD20 million, which is back in line with our typical spending levels after the last couple of years of cash conservation. At the end of the year, our net debt was $150.2 million, which is down from $156 million at the end of the third quarter. We're forecasting to be cash flow positive for the year and the positive cash flow will be used to reduce debt.

本季度的資本支出為 340 萬美元，略低於我們的預期。我們預測 2023 年的資本支出將在 1700 萬美元至 2000 萬美元之間，這與我們在過去幾年的現金儲備後的典型支出水平一致。到年底，我們的淨債務為 1.502 億美元，低於第三季度末的 1.56 億美元。我們預測今年的現金流為正，正現金流將用於減少債務。

We're expecting cash outflow relating to our 2022 taxes that will be paid in 2023 to be about $6 million during the year. And this all relates to the new tax treatment for R&D costs, where we're now required to put them on the balance sheet and capitalize them and expense them over 5 years.

我們預計與 2022 年將在 2023 年支付的稅款相關的現金流出量約為 600 萬美元。而這一切都與研發成本的新稅收處理有關，我們現在需要將它們放在資產負債表上並將它們資本化並在 5 年內支出。

To the credit facility update, on January 19, we announced that we had closed on our new debt financing, which we have been working on for the better part of the year. The new financing structure replaces the cash flow-based revolving credit facility that was set to expire in November 2023 with 2 asset-based credit facilities. The 2 pieces to the new debt structure are a $4 million -- a 4-year $90 million term loan and a 3-year $115 million revolving credit facility. The term loan will bear interest at SOFR plus 8.75% and the revolving credit facility will bear interest at SOFR plus 2.25% to 2.75%, depending on the available balance.

關於信貸安排更新，我們在 1 月 19 日宣布我們已經結束了我們今年大部分時間一直在努力的新債務融資。新的融資結構用 2 項基於資產的信貸安排取代了原定於 2023 年 11 月到期的基於現金流的循環信貸安排。新債務結構的兩部分是 400 萬美元——4 年期 9000 萬美元的定期貸款和 3 年期 1.15 億美元的循環信貸額度。定期貸款的利率為 SOFR 加 8.75%，循環信貸額度的利率為 SOFR 加 2.25% 至 2.75%，具體取決於可用餘額。

Scheduled principal payments on the term note will begin in the second quarter. Scheduled principal payments are $788,000 in the second quarter, $1.5 million in the third quarter and $2.25 million each quarter thereafter. The term note is not callable in the first year. And in the second year, there's a 4% prepayment penalty and in the third year, there's a 1.5% prepayment penalty. Based on a SOFR rate of 5%, we're forecasting weighted average cash interest rate in 2023 to be between 10% and 12%. 2023 quarterly cash interest expense is expected to be approximately $4.5 million per quarter. GAAP interest expense on the income statement will include amortization of upfront costs and will be higher by about $700,000 per quarter. Total upfront fees and closing costs were approximately $8.6 million that will be amortized over the life of the loans.

定期票據的預定本金支付將於第二季度開始。第二季度的計劃本金支付為 788,000 美元，第三季度為 150 萬美元，此後每個季度為 225 萬美元。期限票據在第一年不可贖回。第二年有 4% 的預付款罰款，第三年有 1.5% 的預付款罰款。基於 5% 的 SOFR 利率，我們預測 2023 年的加權平均現金利率將在 10% 至 12% 之間。 2023 年季度現金利息支出預計約為每季度 450 萬美元。損益表中的 GAAP 利息支出將包括前期成本的攤銷，每季度將增加約 700,000 美元。前期費用和關閉成本總額約為 860 萬美元，將在貸款期限內攤銷。

Important financial covenants are minimum adjusted EBITDA covenant, a minimum excess availability and a maximum CapEx covenant, all of which are outlined in the lending agreement that was filed back in January '19. We feel comfortable with being able to remain compliant with these covenants given our current forecast.

重要的財務契約是最低調整後 EBITDA 契約、最低超額可用性和最高資本支出契約，所有這些都在 19 年 1 月提交的貸款協議中進行了概述。鑑於我們目前的預測，我們對能夠繼續遵守這些契約感到滿意。

Just a quick note on the tax rate, I expect we'll get a question on that. The effective tax rate is basically meaningless for this year as it has been for the past year. The more important number to focus on is our cash taxes, and we expect our cash taxes that we will pay in 2023 will be about USD6 million to USD7 million, primarily for the tax year of 2022. And this all relates to the new tax treatment for the research and development accounting, recognizing the income statement impact for the deferred tax assets that are being created by this timing difference.

只是關於稅率的快速說明，我希望我們會就此提出問題。與去年一樣，今年的有效稅率基本上沒有意義。更重要的數字是我們的現金稅，我們預計我們將在 2023 年繳納的現金稅約為 600 萬美元至 700 萬美元，主要針對 2022 年的納稅年度。這都與新的稅收待遇有關對於研發會計，確認由該時間差異產生的遞延所得稅資產對損益表的影響。

That's all I had.

這就是我的全部。

Okay. Turning to 2023, we are maintaining our initial 2023 revenue guide of USD640 million to USD680 million. That may seem like a pretty big jump from 2022's $535 million, but there are a couple of things to think about at the midpoint of that 2023 range, we would be seeing something like 23% growth over 2022. That's actually just slightly more than what we did in 2022 over 2021. We saw 20% growth in 2022. That initial range anticipates 23% growth in 2023. So it's certainly a step, but it's a step we've already done once, and we have the backlog to do it.

好的。展望 2023 年，我們維持 2023 年 6.4 億美元至 6.8 億美元的初始收入指引。與 2022 年的 5.35 億美元相比，這似乎是一個相當大的飛躍，但在 2023 年範圍的中點有幾件事需要考慮，我們將看到比 2022 年增長 23% 左右。這實際上只是略高於我們在 2022 年比 2021 年做到了。我們在 2022 年看到了 20% 的增長。最初的範圍預計 2023 年將增長 23%。所以這當然是一個步驟，但這是我們已經做過一次的步驟，而且我們有積壓的工作要做.

Another piece of data supportive of that range, again, USD640 million to USD680 million is that our last 4 quarters bookings were 690 and 4 of our last 5 quarters were right up around $180 million. So if you annualize that, you get to $720 million. So the orders are coming in. We've demonstrated 20% to 23% growth. And the big assumptions beyond that are that COVID continues to moderate around the world that seems to be happening, people are traveling. Travel restrictions are coming down. We've talked about China. Certainly, I assume a majority of people on the call have been on commercial airplanes over the last couple of months. They are packed and loaded and it doesn't seem to matter where you are or where you're going. So people want to travel. And as long as COVID seems pain and with China opening up, we expect solid growth in our markets or solid demand in our markets.

支持該範圍的另一項數據，同樣是 6.4 億美元至 6.8 億美元，是我們過去 4 個季度的預訂量為 690，過去 5 個季度中有 4 個季度的預訂量正好在 1.8 億美元左右。因此，如果將其年化，您將獲得 7.2 億美元。所以訂單進來了。我們已經證明了 20% 到 23% 的增長。除此之外的重要假設是 COVID 繼續在世界範圍內緩和，這似乎正在發生，人們正在旅行。旅行限制正在放鬆。我們談到了中國。當然，我假設大多數接聽電話的人在過去幾個月裡都乘坐過商用飛機。它們已打包並裝載，您身在何處或要去哪裡似乎並不重要。所以人們想去旅行。只要 COVID 看起來很痛苦並且隨著中國的開放，我們預計我們的市場將穩步增長或市場需求穩固。

The other big assumption, of course, is the supply chain. We need to continue to see -- and we expect to see a cautious but steady improvement. Again, problems still exist, but we're better at recognizing them and resolving them when they do occur. And we're recognizing that we think we're going to continue to get more positive surprises, which means lead times are going to come down or availability is going to increase and fewer negative surprises.

當然，另一個重要假設是供應鏈。我們需要繼續觀察——我們希望看到謹慎但穩步的改善。同樣，問題仍然存在，但我們更善於識別它們並在它們確實發生時解決它們。而且我們認識到，我們認為我們將繼續獲得更多積極的驚喜，這意味著交貨時間將縮短或可用性將增加，而負面驚喜將減少。

Now the cadence of 2023, we're actually expecting first quarter revenues to be a little bit lighter than what the fourth quarter was. That's a function of just demand scheduling and some of these program slides that I was talking about earlier. And even though we're within a month of the end of the first quarter, it's a little difficult to know exactly what our supply chain performance is going to be like. So there's a relatively wide range on our revenue guidance for the first quarter, we're saying USD140 million to USD150 million. Of course, that's what we said in the fourth quarter, we ended up $159 million. So we're doing our best.

現在是 2023 年的節奏，我們實際上預計第一季度的收入會比第四季度略低一些。這只是需求調度和我之前談到的其中一些程序幻燈片的功能。儘管我們距離第一季度末還有一個月的時間，但要確切了解我們的供應鍊錶現會是什麼樣子還是有點困難。因此，我們第一季度的收入指引範圍相對較廣，我們說的是 1.4 億美元到 1.5 億美元。當然，這就是我們在第四季度所說的，我們最終達到了 1.59 億美元。所以我們正在盡力而為。

We do think that we're going to see a positive mix change in the first quarter with respect to margins. So model makers out there, you can't just knock off, say, USD10 million and USD12 million off of our fourth quarter results and due to the simple exercise of knocking on a 40% contribution margin or something like you might in normal times. We think the mix change is going to get more positive and we think that will help our first quarter results. And of course, we're thinking that our production volume will ramp as the year progresses. We're thinking quarters 2 through 4 will be each in the range of USD160 million to USD185 million, starting at the lower end of that ramp and ending at the higher end and we will, of course, update this next time --

我們確實認為，我們將在第一季度看到利潤率方面的積極組合變化。因此，在那裡的模型製造商，你不能僅僅從我們第四季度的業績中扣除 1000 萬美元和 1200 萬美元，並且由於簡單的練習，即敲定 40% 的邊際收益或類似你在正常時期可能會做的事情。我們認為組合變化將變得更加積極，我們認為這將有助於我們第一季度的業績。當然，我們認為我們的產量會隨著時間的推移而增加。我們認為第 2 至第 4 季度將分別在 1.6 億美元至 1.85 億美元之間，從該斜坡的低端開始到高端結束，當然，我們下次會更新 -

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Jon Tanwanteng with CJS Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 CJS 證券公司的 Jon Tanwanteng。

Obviously, nice to see the supply improve. Just to double check, the timing is what's going on in Q1, if not the use of FLRAA constricting again, whether that maybe you had some that pushed out from Q3 into Q4, and you just caught up to that. Just help me understand the supply chain improved into Q1 from Q4 is the question really?

顯然，很高興看到供應有所改善。只是仔細檢查一下，時間是 Q1 發生的事情，如果不是再次使用 FLRAA 收縮，那是否可能你有一些從 Q3 推出到 Q4，你剛剛趕上了。只是幫助我了解從 Q4 改進到 Q1 的供應鏈真的是問題嗎？

Yes. It's a good question, and it is not an easy answer. I think the way to answer it is that the top line is going to move a little bit by program slides. We did pull a couple of things that we were able to pull into the fourth quarter out of the first quarter, which left the first quarter a little bit late. And I think the way to think about supply chain is that, a year ago, we would place an order for a part and where we might normally expect it to come in, in 10 weeks or 15 weeks, all of a sudden, we were getting quotes for 52 weeks. And the difference now is that in many cases, 52 is coming down, but it's still not 10% to 15%. And it's -- but the suppliers are more capable of hitting their -- hitting whatever they commit to, which is an improvement.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，也不是一個簡單的答案。我認為回答這個問題的方法是頂線會隨著程序幻燈片移動一點點。我們確實從第一季度中提取了一些我們能夠進入第四季度的東西，這讓第一季度有點晚了。我認為考慮供應鏈的方式是，一年前，我們會下一個零件訂單，我們通常會在 10 週或 15 週內收到零件，突然之間，我們獲得 52 週的報價。而現在不同的是，在很多情況下，52在下降，但仍然不是10%到15%。而且它——但供應商更有能力實現——實現他們承諾的任何目標，這是一種改進。

But it's not an improvement to the point where we can accelerate things very easily. Given our backlog, given the orders that we have in queue, if we had a supply chain that was cooperative were functioning like it used to, first, we have no trouble filling this hole in the first quarter. But given the way the supply chain is performing, while it's getting better, it's not getting better to the point where we can push and yank and pull all the levers that we are used to operating with. So it's kind of a combination of all that. It's just a little bit of a clumsier process. Lead times are still a little bit longer. And we do have the occasional hiccup. I hear about them fairly regularly. And so it just limits our ability, we think, to respond in the short term to the first quarter the way it's looking.

但這並不是我們可以很容易地加速事情的程度的改進。考慮到我們的積壓訂單，考慮到我們排隊的訂單，如果我們有一個合作的供應鏈像以前一樣運作，首先，我們可以毫不費力地在第一季度填補這個漏洞。但是考慮到供應鏈的運行方式，雖然它正在變得更好，但並沒有好到我們可以推拉拉動我們習慣使用的所有槓桿的程度。所以這是所有這些的結合。這只是一個有點笨拙的過程。交貨時間仍然有點長。我們確實偶爾會打嗝。我經常聽說他們。因此，我們認為，這只會限制我們在短期內對第一季度做出回應的能力。

Dave, I don't know if you'd add anything to that?

戴夫，我不知道你是否願意補充什麼？

No, I think that covers it. It's -- a lot of it is, as you said, we -- pre-COVID we were able to respond really quickly to customer requests if they wanted something in 6 weeks or 8 weeks, and it puts a damper on your ability to do that. But I think, generally speaking, what we're seeing is a little bit -- a lot more consistency than what we saw in supply chain 6 months ago or 8 months ago, 9 months ago. We're also seeing a flattening out of kind of the inflation that we saw as we went through last year. Prices aren't going down or costs aren't going down, but the trajectory certainly has flattened out on a lot of the materials that we're buying.

不，我認為這涵蓋了它。正如您所說，其中很多是我們 - 在 COVID 之前，如果客戶在 6 週或 8 週內想要一些東西，我們能夠非常快速地響應他們的請求，這會削弱你的能力那。但我認為，總的來說，我們所看到的是 - 比我們在 6 個月前或 8 個月前、9 個月前在供應鏈中看到的一致性要高得多。我們還看到去年經歷的通貨膨脹趨於平緩。價格沒有下降或成本沒有下降，但我們購買的許多材料的軌跡肯定已經趨於平緩。

Got it. Dave, just a question for you. You mentioned the contribution margin is closer to 40%. Obviously, you spoken of the spot buys, but you mentioned improving mix in Q1. How should we think of that contribution margin going through the year? Should it be improving towards that 45% even 50% as the spot buy goes down? Just help us understand when you hit that USD150 million or USD180 million, what does that incremental margin actually look like?

知道了。戴夫，只是問你一個問題。你提到邊際貢獻率接近 40%。顯然，你談到了現貨購買，但你提到了第一季度的改善組合。我們應該如何看待全年的邊際貢獻？隨著現貨購買量的下降，它是否應該提高到 45% 甚至 50%？請幫助我們了解當您達到 1.5 億美元或 1.8 億美元時，增量利潤實際上是什麼樣的？

Yes. The way we're forecasting in particular with regard to the spot buys, which, as I pointed out, are not insignificant on a quarterly basis as they will gradually -- we're expecting them to phase out as there's more normalization in the supply chain. We don't expect this to happen until we move into the second half of the year. So that by the fourth quarter, we're expecting the spot buy cost to decrease.

是的。我們特別預測現貨購買的方式，正如我所指出的那樣，按季度計算並不是微不足道的，因為它們會逐漸——我們預計它們會隨著供應更加正常化而逐步停止鏈。在我們進入今年下半年之前，我們預計這種情況不會發生。因此，到第四季度，我們預計現貨購買成本會下降。

The other thing that we're expecting to see, as we mentioned earlier, as we roll into new contracts where our quotes have reflected higher costs and a higher selling price, those will start to become more meaningful as we move through the year and into next year as well. The 40% contribution margin, I think the way we're forecasting is expecting that to gradually improve as we move through the year as well.

正如我們之前提到的，我們期望看到的另一件事是，當我們簽訂新合同時，我們的報價反映了更高的成本和更高的售價，隨著我們度過這一年並進入新的一年，這些將開始變得更有意義明年也是。 40% 的邊際收益，我認為我們預測的方式是希望隨著我們在今年的發展而逐漸改善。

And then last one for me. Did you say that your cash tax burden will be $67 million this year? Or is that a non-cash number?

然後最後一個給我。你是說你今年的現金稅負是 6700 萬美元嗎？或者這是一個非現金號碼？

What I intended to say was USD6 million to USD7 million.

我想說的是 600 萬美元到 700 萬美元。

USD6 million to USD7 million. Okay, understood. That caught me off guard. I apologize.

600萬美元至700萬美元。好的，明白了。這讓我措手不及。我道歉。

Oh, did you hear 60?

哦，你聽說過60嗎？

(inaudible) and maybe that was just my phone.

（聽不清）也許那隻是我的電話。

No, no, no, USD6 million to USD7 million, yes.

不，不，不，600 萬美元到 700 萬美元，是的。

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

Maybe Peter or Dave, just to stay on that margin kind of the contribution margin and just thinking about aerospace margins, I mean, given the volumes, you put up, I think it was, what [3.8%] in the quarter. Should we expect a kind of steady increase in those aerospace margins as we move through the year and presumably knock on wood, nothing kind of gets (inaudible) with supply chain, but we continue to see the demand flow through. Is that a reasonable expectation that the margins build off this level.

也許是彼得或戴夫，只是為了保持貢獻率的那種保證金，只是考慮航空航天的利潤率，我的意思是，考慮到數量，你提出的，我認為是，本季度的 [3.8%]。我們是否應該期待這些航空航天利潤率在我們度過這一年並可能敲木頭時穩步增長，供應鏈沒有任何東西（聽不清），但我們繼續看到需求流動。這是一個合理的預期，利潤率建立在這個水平之上。

Yes, I think the -- when I speak to that 40%, I'm speaking to the incremental contribution margin. But what will happen also as the top line growth is better absorption of the fixed costs. So yes, we would expect, as aerospace continues to have top line growth that we will see, those margins continue to improve.

是的，我認為——當我談到那 40% 時，我說的是增量邊際貢獻。但隨著營收增長，固定成本將得到更好吸收。所以是的，我們預計，隨著航空航天繼續實現我們將看到的收入增長，這些利潤率將繼續提高。

Okay. And then I mean, Pete, you talked a little bit about pricing. I mean, would you be able to kind of elaborate or kind of give us more detail in terms of what you think or what you're trying to push through for price increases and what that's kind of adding to the equation this year?

好的。然後我的意思是，皮特，你談到了一些關於定價的問題。我的意思是，您能否就您的想法或您試圖推動價格上漲的內容以及今年增加的內容進行詳細說明或向我們提供更多詳細信息？

It's a little hard to quantify, I guess, I would say that for the most part, I think we're in pretty good shape in part because we've had a lot of heavy demand, heavy bookings recently. And quite a bit of our revenue base turns over on a pretty frequent basis. We certainly have long-term contracts on major programs. And in some of those cases, we're able to increase prices. In some cases, we got to wait for the contract to renew. But I guess I feel that assuming that inflation doesn't pop along at ridiculously high rates for another 2 or 3 years, I think we're going to ride it out and I think it'll adjust in due course.

這有點難以量化，我想，我想說的是，在大多數情況下，我認為我們的狀態非常好，部分原因是我們最近有很多大量的需求和大量預訂。而且我們的收入基礎中有相當一部分經常發生變化。我們當然有重大項目的長期合同。在某些情況下，我們能夠提高價格。在某些情況下，我們必須等待合同續簽。但我想我覺得假設通貨膨脹在接下來的 2 或 3 年內不會以高得離譜的速度突然出現，我認為我們將渡過難關，我認為它會在適當的時候進行調整。

I'm not considering it at this point, a major issue. That's not to say we are at our stress points, we get some parts of our business that are adjusting clearly better than other parts of our business, and we've got to fix that on an operational basis. But for the most part, I don't think we're going to, long term, be sitting here complaining about inflation as a reason why we can achieve good margins.

我現在不考慮它，這是一個主要問題。這並不是說我們處於壓力點，我們業務的某些部分比我們業務的其他部分進行了明顯更好的調整，我們必須在運營基礎上解決這個問題。但在大多數情況下，我認為從長遠來看，我們不會坐在這裡抱怨通貨膨脹，以此作為我們能夠獲得良好利潤率的原因。

Okay. I mean it sounds like are you getting real pricing? I mean, are you pricing above inflation or just trying to keep pace with it or?

好的。我的意思是聽起來你們得到的是真實價格嗎？我的意思是，你的定價是高於通貨膨脹率還是只是想跟上它的步伐？

For the most part, we're adjusting where we think it's going based on when we think we're going to have to execute certain programs. We're also making some use of surcharges and we're going to our customers and saying this thing that you want to buy is costing us a lot more than we expected. And in many cases, customers are agreeing to pay that surcharge. In some cases, that's being reworked into the base price. In some cases, it's a temporary arrangement that will go away later. We'll have to deal with it on. But for the most part, I feel like we're staying on top of it and the relatively recent ramp in bookings works to our favor.

在大多數情況下，我們正在根據我們認為必須執行某些程序的時間來調整我們認為它的發展方向。我們也在使用一些附加費，我們會向我們的客戶說你想買的東西比我們預期的要多得多。在許多情況下，客戶同意支付該附加費。在某些情況下，這會被重新計算為基本價格。在某些情況下，這是一種臨時安排，稍後會消失。我們將不得不處理它。但在大多數情況下，我覺得我們一直處於領先地位，而且最近的預訂量增加對我們有利。

Got it. And then just one more. I mean, you talked about wide-bodies. Can you kind of just remind us what your shipset content there is? And then it seems like you called out some older platforms. So it seems like some of these older ones are seeing retrofit opportunities. I mean, we know where the A350 and the 87 are going right now. But -- and so I guess I'm asking is seemingly maybe more sort of retrofit demand right now? And then just maybe if you can give some color on the content.

知道了。然後還有一個。我的意思是，你談到了寬體機。你能提醒我們一下你的船組內容嗎？然後你似乎調用了一些舊平台。因此，其中一些較舊的似乎看到了改造機會。我的意思是，我們知道 A350 和 87 現在的發展方向。但是——所以我想我現在問的似乎是更多的改造需求？然後也許你可以給內容一些顏色。

Sure. We do a number of things in wide-body airplanes. The most prominent though are IFE related, right? So most every wide-body airplane that comes off a production line gets a seatback display in every seat [nose to tail]. And for quite a few years now, we have been the prominent provider of power, for example, to those systems, the major system manufacturers. So when somebody buys an 87 or an A350, they check the boxes, they want provider A, B or C and whichever one they pick, when they get Astronics is a power system.

當然。我們在寬體飛機上做了很多事情。最突出的是 IFE 相關，對吧？因此，大多數從生產線上下來的寬體飛機的每個座位（從頭到尾）都有一個靠背顯示器。多年來，我們一直是重要的電力供應商，例如，為那些系統、主要的系統製造商提供電力。因此，當有人購買 87 或 A350 時，他們會勾選方框，他們想要供應商 A、B 或 C，無論他們選擇哪個，當他們獲得 Astronics 時，他們就是一個動力系統。

Additionally, we -- depending on whether they pick A, B or C, we might do other parts of the system, theoretically, file servers, wireless access points, data loaders, things like that. And then we also do live fit work. So it's not uncommon for a wide-body airplane on the production line to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $250,000 in revenue. I mean, in theory, it could be $0.5 million or more. But the aftermarket is important too. The aftermarket is important because this IFE product line, when you think about it, it's kind of where consumer electronics meets the aerospace industry.

此外，我們——根據他們選擇 A、B 還是 C，我們可能會做系統的其他部分，理論上，文件服務器、無線接入點、數據加載器等。然後我們也做現場健身工作。因此，生產線上的一架寬體飛機的收入在 250,000 美元左右並不罕見。我的意思是，理論上，它可能是 50 萬美元或更多。但售後市場也很重要。售後市場很重要，因為這個 IFE 產品線，當你想到它時，它有點像消費電子產品與航空航天工業相遇的地方。

The aerospace industry has very long life cycles, for most of the airplane. Consumer electronics does not, right? It turns over in 2 or 3 years, what you do today is obsolete 2 or 3 years from now, power is -- even power is something is basic is that or what people think of as basic is undergoing a lot of changes. I mean, the world spent a lot of money and time equipping their hotel rooms and restaurants and seating areas and airplanes with USB power type A, now type C is prominent. And they're not compatible, they're completely different.

對於大多數飛機而言，航空航天業的生命週期非常長。消費電子產品沒有，對吧？它會在 2 或 3 年內轉變，你今天所做的事情在 2 或 3 年後就會過時，權力是——甚至權力是基本的東西，或者人們認為是基本的東西正在經歷很多變化。我的意思是，全世界花費了大量的金錢和時間來為他們的酒店房間、餐廳、休息區和飛機配備 A 型 USB 電源，現在 C 型很突出。而且它們不兼容，它們完全不同。

So one of the things that's great for just having airplanes flying is that lifecycle effect takes place, and the systems need to be upgraded, if they're sitting in the desert, they don't need to be upgraded to be blunt. So that's all helpful. We like airplanes flying. It doesn't matter if they're new or old, but we just like them flying.

因此，讓飛機飛行的好處之一是會產生生命週期效應，並且系統需要升級，如果它們位於沙漠中，則不需要升級到鈍器。所以這一切都是有幫助的。我們喜歡飛機飛行。不管它們是新的還是舊的，但我們就是喜歡它們飛翔。

Our next question comes from the line of Jon Tanwanteng with CJS Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 CJS 證券的 Jon Tanwanteng。

I just wanted to follow up actually on the wide-body topic. How much wide-body revenue do you have in the forecast this year? Or how much was in the revenue last year? And kind of what was the prior peak, I guess? And do you think you get back there if ever or is it 50% or 75% of where it used to be? And does it take 2 or 3 years to get there may be?

我只是想跟進關於寬體主題的實際情況。您預測今年的寬體機收入有多少？或者去年的收入是多少？我猜之前的高峰是什麼？你認為你會回到那裡嗎？或者它是以前的 50% 或 75%？是否需要 2 或 3 年才能到達那裡？

It's a very good question. Those are numbers that are really hard to -- and we have some products and product lines, which are used exclusively on wide-body and we have some that are used exclusively on narrow-body. We have some that are used on both. So it's really hard to kind of figure out definitively where they're going. But I can tell you that, I would say, just from what I understand of the business that wide-body revenue last year was probably running in the neighborhood of 10% or 15% of where it used to be. And we're probably going to move closer to 30% or 40% this year from what I can tell. We're just -- we're taking a lot of orders that are wide-body specific.

這是一個很好的問題。這些數字真的很難——我們有一些產品和產品線專門用於寬體，我們有一些專門用於窄體。我們有一些用於兩者。所以很難確切地弄清楚他們要去哪裡。但我可以告訴你，根據我對這項業務的了解，去年的寬體飛機收入可能只有過去的 10% 或 15% 左右。據我所知，今年我們可能會接近 30% 或 40%。我們只是 - 我們正在接受很多特定於寬體的訂單。

And I think what's interesting to me is you follow the experts in the industry and whereas 6 months or a year ago, they were all predicting wide-body return and global airline traffic getting back to 2019 levels, sometime in the 2024-2025 time frame, more and more voices are now expecting or predicting that, that's going to happen in mid-2023 or late 2023. Again, a lot of that depends on what happens in China, I suppose. But we would expect demand for our wide-body products roughly to track with what demand is like for air travel in those kinds of airplanes. So if we see a recovery midyear, I think that's probably a little optimistic, but midyear or second half of 2023, I guess I'd expect our ordering patterns to be pretty much back to normal by that also.

我認為對我來說有趣的是，你關注行業專家，而 6 個月或一年前，他們都預測寬體機返回和全球航空公司客運量將在 2024-2025 年的某個時候回到 2019 年的水平，現在越來越多的聲音期待或預測，這將在 2023 年年中或 2023 年末發生。同樣，我想這在很大程度上取決於中國發生的事情。但我們預計對我們的寬體產品的需求大致會與乘坐此類飛機的航空旅行需求保持一致。因此，如果我們在年中看到復蘇，我認為這可能有點樂觀，但到 2023 年年中或下半年，我想我預計我們的訂購模式也將基本恢復正常。

And by the way, we're not that far off. I mean, we did $780 million, $770 million in 2019. We just booked $690 million in 2022. So it's not that far from here to there before we're kind of back at pre-COVID levels of ordering anyway. And then it's up to the supply chain to allow us to execute on it.

順便說一下，我們並不遙遠。我的意思是，我們在 2019 年完成了 7.8 億美元、7.7 億美元。我們剛剛在 2022 年預訂了 6.9 億美元。因此，在我們回到 COVID 之前的訂購水平之前，距離這裡並不遠。然後由供應鏈允許我們執行它。

Could you just give us a little more color on the expectations for FLRAA and the Army radio test program. When they do actually start up and get going, what are the run rates you expect out of there? Is it consistent or is it lumpy? Just help us understand what the contributions are going to look like?

您能否再多介紹一下對 FLRAA 和陸軍無線電測試計劃的期望。當他們真正啟動並開始運行時，您期望的運行率是多少？它是一致的還是塊狀的？只是幫助我們了解貢獻會是什麼樣子？

Sure. Recognize that we know not much at this point. The 4549, the radio test program, we expect the initial award to be in -- I would say between USD150 million to USD200 million. We think it's going to be towards the high end of that. The timing on it is a little bit of a wild card at this point. There's going to be a low rate initial production. There's going to be some qual testing involved. And then eventually, there's going to be a production turn on. But if all that happens sequentially, then the major impact in our production theoretically, depending on lead times, may not happen until late 2024.

當然。認識到我們目前所知不多。 4549，無線電測試項目，我們預計最初的獎勵是——我會說在 1.5 億美元到 2 億美元之間。我們認為它將朝著高端方向發展。在這一點上，它的時機有點不確定。初始生產率較低。將涉及一些質量測試。然後最終，將開始生產。但如果所有這一切都按順序發生，那麼理論上，根據交貨時間，對我們生產的重大影響可能要到 2024 年底才會發生。

If we can stack those things or do them concurrently, then I think it becomes probably not a late 2023 thing, but probably in early 2024 thing. So -- and we think that, that initial order is just the beginning. This is going to be a standard for the U.S. Army. They have a lot of radios and a lot of units and families that we will -- that our product will be testing, we think, could be a decade. So, more on that as it develops.

如果我們可以堆疊這些事情或同時進行，那麼我認為這可能不會成為 2023 年末的事情，而是可能在 2024 年初發生的事情。所以 - 我們認為，最初的訂單只是一個開始。這將成為美國陸軍的標準。他們有很多收音機和很多單位和家庭，我們將 - 我們的產品將進行測試，我們認為可能需要十年。因此，隨著它的發展，更多關於它。

FLRAA, I've used this analogy to describe the importance of this program for us. And you're following us for a while, Jon. We have this electrical -- flight-critical electrical power franchise that we've been building. And it's been pretty successful in terms of becoming a high-end standard in small aircraft and both in rotary-wing, fixed-wing, jets, turboprops, and we are expanding it now into the electric EV follow area. But the FLRAA opportunity is kind of a night and day kind of difference in tenor from those other programs.

FLRAA，我用這個類比來描述這個項目對我們的重要性。你跟著我們有一段時間了，喬恩。我們擁有我們一直在建設的對飛行至關重要的電力特許經營權。它在成為小型飛機以及旋翼、固定翼、噴氣式飛機、渦輪螺旋槳飛機的高端標準方面非常成功，我們現在正在將其擴展到電動 EV 後續領域。但是 FLRAA 的機會與其他項目的期限有點不同。

And again, we have a little bit of a gag order, but I've used this analogy I said, imagine a wide-body airplane where we put absolutely everything that we might possibly put on that airplane that's in our toolkit. And this is a little different than how I answered Michael's question earlier because this is a theoretical airplane that's never really existed. But if it comes down the production line, and we put power on it, we put a full suite of IFE equipment on it. We put an antenna on the roof. We put a ratio, I mean, we put a full cockpit lighting suite, a full exterior lighting suite, a full interior lighting suite in terms of passenger service units, et cetera, et cetera.

再一次，我們有一些禁言令，但我用了我說過的這個類比，想像一架寬體飛機，我們把我們可能放在飛機上的所有東西都放在我們的工具包裡。這與我之前回答邁克爾問題的方式略有不同，因為這是一架從未真正存在過的理論飛機。但如果它從生產線上下來，我們給它通電，我們就會在上面放上一整套 IFE 設備。我們在屋頂上放了一個天線。我們放了一個比例，我的意思是，我們放了一個完整的駕駛艙照明套件，一個完整的外部照明套件，一個完整的內部照明套件，就乘客服務單元而言，等等。

If you add all that up, you probably get to somewhere in the neighborhood of a $700,000, $750,000 airplane. And while we aren't under contract, and there's movement in the shipset and things that are going to change, we expect that our FLRAA content will be well north of that. So -- and then you ask, well, how many aircraft are they going to build? And that's a whole another kind of guessing game at this point. So the placements for the Black Hawk, there are 4,000 Black Hawks out there and nobody expects a 1-for-1 replacement, but what you expect a little bit of a guessing game. But even if you guess conservatively for a company like us, it's a real significant overtime game changer of a program.

如果你把所有這些加起來，你可能會得到價值 700,000 美元、750,000 美元的飛機附近的某個地方。雖然我們沒有簽訂合同，並且艦船組發生了變化並且事情將會發生變化，但我們預計我們的 FLRAA 內容將遠不止於此。那麼 - 然後你問，他們要建造多少架飛機？這完全是另一種猜謎遊戲。所以黑鷹隊的安置，那裡有 4,000 名黑鷹隊，沒有人期望一對一的替換，但你所期望的有點猜謎遊戲。但即使您保守地猜測像我們這樣的公司，它也是一個真正重要的加班遊戲規則改變者。

No, that helps to put it in perspective. I assume that doesn't go into production until much later though in the second, right? So the initial development revenue is what we're thinking about, which would be.

不，這有助於正確看待它。我假設直到很晚才投入生產，雖然在第二個，對吧？所以最初的開發收入就是我們正在考慮的，這將是。

Well, I think I'm older than you are, Jon, but we might -- both would be retired before we know how far this program is going to go and get real volumes. But if it's anything like -- well, the Black Hawk has been in production now for 50 years.

好吧，我想我比你大，喬恩，但我們可能——在我們知道這個項目要走多遠並獲得實際數量之前，我們都可能會退休。但如果它是——好吧，黑鷹已經生產了 50 年了。

Last question for me, just on the labor issue, let's assume your supply chain cooperates and you get all these wide-body orders that you have to facilitate. Can you reach that $180 million run rate with the workforce that you have now? Or is it going to take more work just to get those people in the door and supplying that?

我的最後一個問題，關於勞工問題，假設您的供應鏈合作並且您獲得了所有這些您必須促進的寬體訂單。你能用你現在擁有的勞動力達到 1.8 億美元的運行率嗎？或者是否需要做更多的工作才能讓這些人進來並提供這些東西？

Yes. For the most part, I would -- I guess my feeling is that labor is certainly not our biggest problem. Supply chain has been our biggest problem. Your question is insightful. If all of a sudden the supply chain snapped to attention and the trucks pulled up fuller parts, then yes, we would be short labor to turn them as that quickly. But for the most part, in most places of our business, the labor side of it is a little bit better than what it was, say, 1.5 years ago at the highly COVID, we wanted to come out of their houses to work. That's changing a little bit.

是的。在大多數情況下，我會——我想我的感覺是勞動力肯定不是我們最大的問題。供應鏈一直是我們最大的問題。你的問題很有見地。如果突然間供應鏈開始受到關注並且卡車拉動了更完整的零件，那麼是的，我們將缺少勞動力來快速轉動它們。但在大多數情況下，在我們業務的大多數地方，它的勞動力方面比 1.5 年前在高度 COVID 的情況下好一點，我們想走出他們的房子去工作。這有點改變了。

We certainly have parts of our business that are struggling for labor. But for the most part, kind of across the board, I think that we have a general feeling that we're okay and that we can adjust our headcount and our capacity to the scheduling of the major programs as they happen. Dave, I don't know if you'd answer that any differently?

我們當然有部分業務正在為勞動力而苦苦掙扎。但在大多數情況下，我認為我們有一種普遍的感覺，我們很好，我們可以調整我們的員工人數和我們的能力，以適應主要項目的安排。戴夫，我不知道你是否會有不同的回答？

No.

不。

And obviously, congrats on giving all the stuff done over the finish line over the last couple of months.

顯然，祝賀您在過去幾個月中完成了所有完成的工作。

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

Jon, jump picked up my labor question there. But just on FLRAA too, Pete, is there anything assumed in the current year outlook for FLRAA revenue contribution from the development program?

Jon，jump 在那裡回答了我的勞工問題。但就 FLRAA 而言，Pete，在今年的前景中是否有任何假設來自開發計劃的 FLRAA 收入貢獻？

We do have some -- yes, we have some NRE built in -- as you might imagine, it's probably a couple year engineering effort. It's a little unclear how that's going to play out at this point. We originally thought that it would be somewhere north of $30 million, south of $50 million over 2.5 years. It's delayed, so it's nothing in the first quarter. That hurts us a little bit. If it gets delayed for, let's say, something crazy happens and the whole thing gets thrown up in the air with -- by the GAO and they recompete it or whatever and the whole year is lost. And that would be a significant downgrade to our internal forecast.

我們確實有一些——是的，我們有一些內置的 NRE——正如你想像的那樣，這可能需要幾年的工程努力。目前尚不清楚這將如何發揮作用。我們最初認為它會在 2.5 年內超過 3000 萬美元，低於 5000 萬美元。延遲了，所以第一季度沒什麼。這讓我們有點心疼。如果它被延遲，比方說，一些瘋狂的事情發生了，整個事情被 GAO 拋在空中，他們重新競爭它或其他什麼，整年都丟失了。這將大大降低我們的內部預測。

But at this point, we feel that we've got enough demand and enough excess demand, but over the course of the year, while it's going to change the shape of our first quarter a little bit, it's not at this point, material to the whole year. Again, we're expecting the protest to be resolved early April. That's what we're hoping, and we expect to be kind of hit the starting blocks, [right then] or pretty close to right then.

但在這一點上，我們覺得我們有足夠的需求和足夠的超額需求，但在這一年中，雖然它會稍微改變我們第一季度的形狀，但在這一點上並不重要全年。同樣，我們預計抗議活動將在 4 月初得到解決。這就是我們所希望的，我們希望能夠在 [right then] 或非常接近 right then 的情況下起步。

Does that -- I mean, I think Lockheed filed the second complaint, which is that there's a deadline on that for May 17. So I know the first decision is, I mean, does that have any implications given their additional complaint that they filed?

是嗎 - 我的意思是，我認為洛克希德提出了第二項投訴，即 5 月 17 日的最後期限。所以我知道第一個決定是，我的意思是，考慮到他們提出的額外投訴，這是否有任何影響？

Not that I know. But again, I don't know any inside knowledge about what the deliberations are on the protest. I can just say that the longer it goes, the more it becomes a material detractor to our plans.

不是我知道的。但同樣，我不知道關於抗議的審議內容的任何內部消息。我只能說，它持續的時間越長，它就越會成為我們計劃的實質性破壞者。

And it looks like we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

看來我們的問答環節已經結束了。我現在將電話轉回給管理層以作結束語。

Okay. No closing remarks. Thank you again for your attention. We feel like the fourth quarter was a step-up to close 2022, and we're optimistic for 2023. We look forward to talking to you again next time. Have a good night.

好的。沒有結束語。再次感謝您的關注。我們覺得第四季度是接近 2022 年的一個進步，我們對 2023 年持樂觀態度。我們期待下次與您再次交談。祝你晚安。

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，此時你們可以掛斷電話。感謝您的參與。