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Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by. My name is Amy and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time. I would like to welcome everyone to the Atmos Energy Corporation fiscal 2024 4th quarter earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad to enter the queue.
謝謝你的支持。我叫艾米,我將擔任今天的會議接線生。此時。我歡迎大家參加 Atmos Energy Corporation 2024 財年第四季財報電話會議。所有線路均已靜音,以防止任何背景噪音。演講者發言後,將進行問答環節。如果您想在此期間提問,只需按星號,然後按電話鍵盤上的數字 1 即可進入佇列。
If you would like to withdraw your question again, press the star and the number one, it is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Daniel M. Meziere Vice President, Investor Relations and treasurer. You may begin.
如果您想再次撤回問題,請按星號和數字一,現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 Daniel M. Meziere。你可以開始了。
Daniel M. Meziere - Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer
Daniel M. Meziere - Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer
Thank you, Amy.
謝謝你,艾米。
Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining us with me. Today are Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer and Chris Forsyth, senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings release and conference call slide presentation which we will reference in our prepared remarks are available at Atmos Energy dotcom under the Investor relations tab as we review our financial results and discuss future expectations please keep in mind that some of our discussion might contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Act and the Securities Exchange Act, forward-looking statements and could differ materially from actual results. The factors that could cause such material differences are outlined on slide 37 and are more fully described in our sec filings. I will now turn the call over to cabinet.
大家早安。感謝您與我一起加入我們。今天的嘉賓是總裁兼執行長 Kevin Akers 和高級副總裁兼財務長 Chris Forsyth。當我們審查我們的財務表現並討論未來預期時,我們將在準備好的講話中引用我們的收益發布和電話會議幻燈片演示,請在Atmos Energy dotcom 的“投資者關係”選項卡下查看,請記住,我們的一些討論可能包含前瞻性- 《證券法》和《證券交易法》所指的前瞻性陳述屬於前瞻性陳述,可能與實際結果有重大差異。投影片 37 概述了可能導致此類重大差異的因素,並在我們的 sec 檔案中進行了更全面的描述。我現在將把電話轉給內閣。
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Thank you, Dan and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Atmos Energy Monday. As Veterans Day, I would like to take this opportunity to thank those who have served in our armed forces.
謝謝丹,大家早安。感謝您週一對 Atmos Energy 的關注。在退伍軍人節之際,我想藉此機會感謝那些在我們武裝部隊服役的人們。
Approximately 300 of our Atmos Energy teammates are a part of the more than $18 million Americans who bravely served our country. Thank you for your service and thank you to those currently serving this great nation.
我們的 Atmos Energy 團隊中有大約 300 名同事是勇敢地為國家服務的價值超過 1800 萬美元的美國人的一部分。感謝你們的服務,也感謝那些目前為這個偉大國家服務的人們。
24 marked Atmos Energy's 40th anniversary as an independent company. ALL5,200 of us here at Atmos Energy proudly serve our customers and our communities as we continue to be guided by the simple values of our founding Chairman, Charles KVA, of H1sty, integrity, and good moral character.
24 日是 Atmos Energy 作為獨立公司成立 40 週年。Atmos Energy 的 5,200 名員工自豪地為我們的客戶和社區服務,因為我們繼續遵循創始主席 Charles KVA 的簡單價值觀,即 H1sty、正直和良好的道德品質。
Yesterday, we reported earnings per share of $6.83 which represents the 22nd consecutive year of earnings per share growth. Fiscal '24 also represents the 40th consecutive year of dividend growth.
昨天,我們報告每股收益為 6.83 美元,這代表每股收益連續 22 年增長。24 財年也是股利連續 40 年成長。
Our fiscal year results reflect the focus and dedication of the entire Atmos Energy team and their continued successful execution of our proven strategy of operating safely and reliably. While we modernize our natural gas distribution transmission and storage systems, our fiscal '24 capital investment of over $2.9 billion supported the modernization of our systems through the replacement of over 850 miles of distribution and transmission pipe and replacement of more than 55,000 service lines.
我們的財年表現反映了整個 Atmos Energy 團隊的專注和奉獻精神,以及他們持續成功執行我們行之有效的安全可靠營運策略。在我們對天然氣分配傳輸和儲存系統進行現代化改造的同時,我們的24 財年資本投資超過29 億美元,透過更換超過850 英里的分配和傳輸管道以及超過55,000 條服務線路,支持了我們系統的現代化。
Additionally, we continue to enhance the safety, reliability, versatility and supply diversification of AP T system by placing into service our line PC on the southern end of AP T system as well as phase one of the line W A loop to the west of Fort Worth and phase three or four for line S two to the east of the DFW Metroplex.
此外,我們透過將位於AP T系統南端的PC線以及沃斯堡以西的W A環路第一階段工程投入使用,繼續增強AP T系統的安全性、可靠性、多功能性和供應多元化DFW Metroplex 以東的S 2 號線第三期或第四期。
And we completed the well integrity inspections on our Bethel Salt Dome cavern. Number two, we expect base gas and working gas injection to be completed next month providing the availability of all three salt dome caverns for this winter season.
我們也完成了伯特利鹽穹洞穴的井完整性檢查。第二,我們預計基礎氣體和工作氣體注入將於下個月完成,為今年冬季提供所有三個鹽丘洞穴的可用性。
Capital investment also supported a natural gas service to fuel the strong economic development. We continue to see across our service territories.
資本投資也支持天然氣服務,推動經濟強勁發展。我們繼續關注我們的服務領域。
In F 24 we added over 59,000 new residential and commercial customers with over 46,000 of those new customers located in Texas, the housing market and the DFW metroplex remained strong for the 12 months ended September 30th new home closings set a record high with a nearly 1% increase over the prior 12 month period. Driven by the strength of the Texas economy.
在F 24 中,我們增加了超過59,000 名新住宅和商業客戶,其中超過46,000 名新客戶位於德克薩斯州,截至9 月30 日的12 個月內,房地產市場和DFW 大都會依然強勁,新屋成交量創下歷史新高,接近 1較前 12 個月增加 %。受德州經濟實力的推動。
And according to the Texas workforce commission, the state continued its streak of record employment for the 12 months ended September, the seasonally adjusted number of employed reached a new record high at over $14.3 million Texas again added jobs at a faster rate than the nation over the last 12 months. Adding nearly 327,000 jobs from September 2023 to September 2024.
根據德州勞動力委員會的數據,截至 9 月的 12 個月,該州繼續保持創紀錄的就業記錄,經季節性調整的就業人數創下新高,超過 1,430 萬美元。2023 年 9 月至 2024 年 9 月期間新增近 327,000 個就業機會。
In addition to this robust residential customer growth, we saw solid commercial and industrial growth in fiscal '24 we added nearly 3,500 new commercial customers, a 19% increase over the prior fiscal year.
除了住宅客戶的強勁成長之外,我們還看到了 24 財年商業和工業的強勁成長,我們增加了近 3,500 個新商業客戶,比上一財年成長了 19%。
And we added 39 industrial customers which when fully operational are anticipated to consume approximately 8.4 BC F of gas annually.
我們還增加了 39 個工業客戶,這些客戶在全面運作後預計每年消耗約 8.4 BC F 的天然氣。
This usage is equivalent to adding over 160,000 residential customers on a volumetric basis.
這項使用量相當於增加了超過 16 萬個住宅客戶。
Over the last five years, we added nearly 300,000 residential and commercial customers.
在過去五年中,我們增加了近 30 萬名住宅和商業客戶。
And over the last five years, we have added 225 industrial customers with an estimated annual load of 63 BC F when fully operational again on a volumetric basis. This is equivalent to adding nearly $1.2 million residential customers.
在過去的五年裡,我們增加了 225 個工業客戶,當再次全面運作時,預計年負荷為 63 BC F。這相當於增加了近 120 萬美元的住宅客戶。
This growing natural gas demand from all customer classes continues to demonstrate the vital role natural gas has in economic development across our service territories.
所有客戶類別不斷增長的天然氣需求繼續表明天然氣在我們服務領域的經濟發展中發揮著至關重要的作用。
Our customer support associates and service technicians continue to be at their best and inspire trust with our customers and in our communities through their exceptional customer service, they once again received a 98% satisfaction rating from our customers.
我們的客戶支援人員和服務技術人員繼續保持最佳狀態,透過卓越的客戶服務贏得了客戶和社區的信任,他們再次獲得了客戶 98% 的滿意度評價。
And during the fiscal year, our customer advocacy team assisted over 57,000 customers in receiving almost $23 million in energy assistance funding.
在本財年中,我們的客戶倡議團隊幫助超過 57,000 名客戶獲得了近 2,300 萬美元的能源援助資金。
I'm very proud of our atmos Energy team and their many accomplishments in fiscal '24. Their exceptional work has us well positioned for physical 25 and beyond.
我為我們的 atmos Energy 團隊及其在 24 財年取得的眾多成就感到非常自豪。他們的出色工作使我們在 25 歲及以上的身體素質方面處於有利地位。
As you know, we operate in a diversified and growing service territory that is supportive of natural gas and our investment in natural gas infrastructure to supply the growing economy and meet the growing energy demand. As a reminder, 96% of our rate base is located in six of our eight states that have passed legislation in support of energy choice to meet the expectations of our community, our customers, policymakers and regulators. Our five year plan contemplates $24 billion of capital investment that investment will support the continued modernization of our natural gas distribution transmission and storage systems as well as support the growing natural gas demand across our jurisdictions. With over 80% of that investment focused on safety and reliability.
如您所知,我們在多元化且不斷增長的服務領域開展業務,該領域支持天然氣以及我們對天然氣基礎設施的投資,以供應不斷增長的經濟並滿足不斷增長的能源需求。提醒一下,我們 96% 的費率基數位於我們八個州中的六個,這些州已通過立法支持能源選擇,以滿足我們社區、客戶、政策制定者和監管機構的期望。我們的五年計劃計劃進行 240 億美元的資本投資,該投資將支持我們的天然氣分配傳輸和儲存系統的持續現代化,並支持我們轄區不斷增長的天然氣需求。超過 80% 的投資集中在安全性和可靠性。
And at AP T, we will remain focused on safety, reliability, versatility, and supply diversification while fortifying our system to support the growth of the LD CS located behind our pipeline this includes the completion of the final phase of our line s two project to the east of the DFW Metroplex, continuation of the W A loop project to the west of the DFW Metro and adding capacity to move additional gas from our vessel salt dome facility towards central Texas.
在AP T,我們將繼續專注於安全性、可靠性、多功能性和供應多元化,同時強化我們的系統,以支援位於我們管道後面的LD CS 的發展,其中包括完成我們的兩個管道項目的最後階段DFW Metroplex 東部的 W A 環路項目在 DFW Metroplex 西部的延續,並增加了將額外天然氣從我們的船鹽穹頂設施輸送到德克薩斯州中部的能力。
The strength of our balance sheet available liquidity and regulatory mechanisms will continue to support the vital role we play in every community of safely delivering reliable and efficient natural gas to homes, businesses and industries to fuel our energy needs. Now and into the future, I will now turn the call over to Chris for some additional color around our physical 24 financial results. Our F 25 guidance and our updated five year plan through fiscal '29. And then we will open the call for questions, Chris Forsythe.
我們的資產負債表可用流動性和監管機制的實力將繼續支持我們在每個社區中發揮的重要作用,向家庭、企業和工業安全地提供可靠和高效的天然氣以滿足我們的能源需求。現在和將來,我現在將把電話轉給克里斯,以了解我們 24 日實際財務表現的更多資訊。我們的 F 25 指引和截至 29 財年更新的五年計畫。然後我們將開始提問,Chris Forsythe。
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thank you, Kevin Akers and good morning everyone. Our fiscal '24 earnings per share of $6.83 increased 12% over fiscal '23.
謝謝凱文·埃克斯,大家早安。我們 24 財年的每股盈餘為 6.83 美元,比 23 財年成長了 12%。
As a reminder, these results include 17¢ from the one time benefits. We have discussed previously an unplanned property tax reduction in Texas and lower than planned added expense in Mississippi, resulting from a regulatory change and how we recover uncollectible accounts excluding these one time items, earnings per share increased 9.2% in fiscal '24. Our performance continues to reflect the successful execution or operating regulatory and financing strategies.
提醒一下,這些結果包括 17 美分的一次性福利。我們之前討論過德克薩斯州計劃外的財產稅削減和密西西比州因監管變化而低於計劃的增加費用,以及我們如何收回不包括這些一次性項目的壞帳賬款,24 財年每股收益成長了9.2%。我們的業績繼續反映了監管和融資策略的成功執行或營運。
In fiscal '24 we implemented $376 million in annualized operating income increases.
在 24 財年,我們實現了 3.76 億美元的年化營業收入成長。
These outcomes combined with outcomes received in fiscal '23 increased operating income by over $300 million.
這些成果與 23 財年收到的成果結合,營業收入增加了 3 億多美元。
Strong customer growth combined with rising industrial load in our distribution segment, increase operating income, an additional $25 million and rising peak day demand requirements with AP T's L DC customers resulting in a $15 million increase in operating income.
強勁的客戶成長加上我們分銷部門不斷增長的工業負荷,增加了營業收入,額外增加了2500 萬美元,而AP T 的L DC 客戶的高峰日需求需求不斷增加,導致營業收入增加了1500 萬美元。
Finally, we saw a $39 million increase in AP TS system activities. About half of this increase is recognized during our fourth fiscal quarter during this time. While our pricing was negative for 63% of the trading days. These market commissions were primarily driven by unplanned maintenance on certain pipelines and delays in new takeaway capacity coming online. Both of which cause spreads to widen more than we had anticipated. These four core mark conditions were the primary reason why our fiscal '24 results exceeded the updated guidance range we provided in August consolidated O&M excluding bad debt expense increased $65 million.
最後,我們看到 AP TS 系統活動增加了 3900 萬美元。其中大約一半的成長是在我們第四財季這段時間內確認的。而我們的定價在 63% 的交易日為負值。這些市場佣金主要是由某些管道的計劃外維護以及新外賣能力上線的延遲所推動的。這兩者都會導致價差擴大超出我們的預期。這四個核心標記條件是我們 24 財年業績超過我們在 8 月份提供的更新指導範圍的主要原因,不包括壞帳費用的合併營運與維護增加了 6,500 萬美元。
This increase is largely driven by higher employee related costs due to additional head count is a court road and higher costs associated with increased line line locating activities, system monitoring training and administrative costs.
這一增長主要是由於法院道路的人員數量增加而導致員工相關成本增加,以及與線路定位活動、系統監控培訓和管理成本增加相關的成本增加。
Consolidated capital spending increased 5% or $131 million to 2.9 billion. With 83% dedicated to improving the safety and reliability of our system.
綜合資本支出成長 5%,即 1.31 億美元,達到 29 億美元。83% 致力於提高我們系統的安全性和可靠性。
This spending increase rate base by approximately 13% to an estimated $19 billion. As of September 30th capital spending in our distribution segment increased $322 million as a result of increased system modernization and customer growth spending capital spending in our pipeline and storage that decreased to about 100 and $91 million prime due due to the timing of cash payments for pipeline system and safety and reliability work in Texas that had been completed during the fiscal year.
這項支出使利率基數增加約 13%,達到估計 190 億美元。截至9 月30 日,我們的分銷部門的資本支出增加了3.22 億美元,這是由於系統現代化的增加和客戶增長支出,我們的管道和存儲的資本支出減少到約100 和9100 萬美元,因為管道現金支付的時間表德克薩斯州的系統和安全可靠性工作已在本財政年度完成。
Finally, we completed $1.2 billion of long term financing. We finished the fiscal year with an capitalization of 61% and approximately $4.8 billion of available liquidity, which means it's well positioned to support our future operations.
最終,我們完成了12億美元的長期融資。本財年結束時,我們的資本化率為 61%,可用流動資金約為 48 億美元,這意味著它有能力支持我們未來的營運。
Looking forward, we have initiated our fiscal '25 earnings for share guidance range of $7.05 to $7.25 assuming the midpoint of this guidance range. This implies 7.4% growth in fiscal '24 earnings per share excluding the previously mentioned one time item and we have initiated this was 25 capital spending guidance for approximately $3.7 billion.
展望未來,我們將 25 財年的每股獲利指引範圍定為 7.05 美元至 7.25 美元,假設該指引範圍的中點。這意味著不包括先前提到的一次性項目的 24 財年每股收益成長 7.4%,我們已啟動 25 財年資本支出指導,金額約為 37 億美元。
Additionally, atlas board directors approved a 164 quarterly cash dividend with an indicated fiscal '25 annual dividend of $3.48 818.1% increase over fiscal '24.
此外,Atlas 董事會批准了 164 季度現金股息,預計 25 財年年度股息為 3.48 美元,比 24 財年增加 818.1%。
Finally, we rolled forward our five year plan to fiscal '29.
最後,我們將五年計畫延後到 29 財年。
Our strategy remains unchanged. We continue to focus on system modernization through disciplined capital spending, take time and recovery of our costs through our various regulatory mechanisms and maintain a strong balance sheet by financing our operations using a balance of equity and long term debt.
我們的策略保持不變。我們繼續透過嚴格的資本支出專注於系統現代化,透過各種監管機制花時間和回收成本,並透過使用股本和長期債務餘額為我們的營運融資來維持強勁的資產負債表。
We anticipate the execution of this five year plan will continue to support 6 to 8% annual earnings per share growth and annual dividends per share growth. We anticipate earnings per share of 29 to be in the range of $9.15 $9.55.
我們預計該五年計畫的執行將繼續支持每年 6% 至 8% 的每股盈餘成長和每股年度股息成長。我們預計 29 的每股盈餘將在 9.15 美元至 9.55 美元之間。
As Kevin mentioned, we've included approximately $24 billion in our current five year plan. This level of spending is expected to support rate based growth of about 13 to 15% per year. By the end of fiscal '29 we anticipate rate base to increase from approximately $19 billion today to approximately $37 billion. In fiscal '29.
正如 Kevin 所提到的,我們已在目前的五年計畫中納入了約 240 億美元。這一支出水準預計將支持每年約 13% 至 15% 的成長率。到 29 財年末,我們預計利率基數將從目前的約 190 億美元增加到約 370 億美元。在 29 財年。
From a revenue perspective, we continue to execute our normal regulatory strategy of implementing approximately 20 rate filings per year. We have assumed no changes to our ROE S or regulatory mechanisms nor have we assumed the implementation of new cost recovery mechanisms in this five year plan.
從收入角度來看,我們繼續執行每年約 20 份費率申報的正常監管策略。我們假設我們的 ROE S 或監管機制不會發生變化,也沒有假設在本五年計畫中實施新的成本回收機制。
Since the beginning of the fiscal year, we have implemented $149 million of analyze operating income increases in our distribution segment.
自本財年開始以來,我們已在分銷部門實施了 1.49 億美元的分析營業收入成長。
$516 million related to the implementation of our two annual rate review mechanisms in Texas and $27 million related to the implementation of our two annual rate filings in Mississippi.
5.16 億美元與在德州實施兩項年度費率審查機制有關,2,700 萬美元與在密西西比州實施兩項年度費率申報有關。
Currently, we have three filings pending seeking about $77 million included in this filed form. Out is approximately $40 million led to a system wide general rate case on our West Texas distribution.
目前,我們有三份申請待決,尋求此提交表格中包含約 7700 萬美元的資金。大約 4000 萬美元導致了我們西德克薩斯州分銷系統範圍內的一般費率案例。
This is a required filing affecting all customers in our West Texas division based on a settlement we reached in 2020.
根據我們在 2020 年達成的和解協議,這是一份影響我們西德克薩斯分部所有客戶的必填文件。
Additionally, are required to refresh our rates following five years of filings for portions of our West Texas division.
此外,在我們西德州部分部門提交五年申請後,需要更新我們的費率。
We anticipate filing two similar cases in our mid tex division during our first quarter for just our cities will recover our costs through grip.
我們預計第一季在我們的中德州部門提起兩個類似的案件,僅針對我們的城市,將透過控制力收回我們的成本。
Additionally, we have filed a general rate case in Kentucky seeking approximately $34 million. We anticipate completing all of these general rape cases in late spring of 2025.
此外,我們還在肯塔基州提起了一般費率訴訟,尋求約 3,400 萬美元的賠償。我們預計在 2025 年春末完成所有這些一般強暴案件。
From a larger perspective, we've also assumed on the weather market conditions and modest customer growth in both our segments. In this five year plan, we have assumed a 6% decrease in the oil and gas costs included in the customer bill, primarily due to lower commodity costs, partially offset by higher storage and transportation costs.
從更大的角度來看,我們也假設了兩個細分市場的天氣市場狀況和適度的客戶成長。在這個五年計畫中,我們假設客戶帳單中包含的石油和天然氣成本下降 6%,這主要是由於商品成本下降,但部分被較高的儲存和運輸成本所抵消。
Finally, we had to assume the contribution from AP T's three system business to normalize with just with 24 levels.
最後,我們不得不假設AP T的三個系統業務的貢獻以24個層級進行歸一化。
Additional takeaway capacity is now in place which should moderate spreads and we will have the full year effect of the higher revenue benchmark and AP ts wider mechanism.
額外的外送能力現已到位,這應該會緩和利差,我們將受到更高收入基準和更廣泛機制的全年影響。
On the cost side, we have assumed 4% annual O&M inflation excluding bad debt expense.
在成本方面,我們假設年度營運和維護通膨率(不包括壞帳費用)為 4%。
This inflation assumption is driven by increased spending for compliance based activities to address the safety system monitoring and employee costs. As we've discussed before, we are not a just in time compliance company that we will look to accelerate compliance related work within the five year plan. As assistant conditions dictate or other opportunities arise for fiscal '25. We anticipate O&M excluding bad debt expense to range from 840 to $860 million. Approximately $20 million of the year over year increase relates to the amortization of AP TS system safety and integrity mechanism. As a reminder, this new mechanism was agreed in Apt's last general rate case and this flow through mechanism for cost and to address the federal and state safety regulated regulations. Meaning we recognize the revenue and related on end cost after review and approval by the Texas Royal Commission resulting in no impact to operating income.
這種通貨膨脹假設是由於基於合規性的活動支出增加所致,以解決安全系統監控和員工成本問題。正如我們之前討論的,我們不是一家及時合規公司,我們將尋求在五年計劃內加快合規相關工作。根據輔助條件的規定或 25 財年出現的其他機會。我們預計不計壞帳費用的營運和維護費用將在 8.4 至 8.6 億美元之間。年比成長中約 2000 萬美元與 AP TS 系統安全和完整性機制的攤銷有關。提醒一下,這個新機制是在 Apt 的最後一個一般費率案例中得到同意的,這個流程機制是為了成本和解決聯邦和州安全監管法規。這意味著我們在德州皇家委員會審查和批准後確認收入和相關的最終成本,不會對營業收入產生影響。
AP T made its first S si filing earlier this calendar year seeking recovery of approximately $19 million in eligible S si costs.
AP T 今年稍早首次提交了 S si 申請,尋求收回約 1,900 萬美元的合格 S si 成本。
This filing was approved in October and revenues in R&M were adjusted effective November 1st to recover these costs over a 12 month period.
該申請於 10 月獲得批准,R&M 的收入進行了調整,並於 11 月 1 日生效,以在 12 個月內收回這些成本。
Turning now to our financing plan, this five year plan includes approximately $15 billion of incremental long term financing to support our operations and cash needs including the expected impact of the corporate minimum income tax, corporate minimum tax. Beginning in fiscal '27 we will continue to use a combination of long term debt and equity to preserve the strength of our balance sheet and minimize the cost of financing for our customers and overall financing risk. As a reminder, this incremental financing is included in our earnings per share guide for fiscal '25 through fiscal '29.
現在談談我們的融資計劃,這個五年計劃包括約 150 億美元的增量長期融資,以支持我們的營運和現金需求,包括企業最低所得稅、企業最低稅的預期影響。從 27 財年開始,我們將繼續結合使用長期債務和股本來維持資產負債表的實力,並最大限度地降低客戶的融資成本和整體融資風險。提醒一下,這種增量融資已包含在我們 25 財年至 29 財年的每股盈餘指南中。
Following the completion of our $650 million long term debt issuances in October, our weighted average cost of debt is 4.1% and our weighted average maturity was 18.1 years with our next material refinancing not scheduled until June of 2027.
10 月完成 6.5 億美元長期債務發行後,我們的加權平均債務成本為 4.1%,加權平均期限為 18.1 年,下一次重大再融資預計要到 2027 年 6 月才會進行。
From an equity perspective, we anticipate meeting all of our needs through our ATM program. As of September 30th, we have priced $1.4 billion which fully satisfies our fiscal '25 equity needs and a significant portion of our anticipated fiscal '26 equity needs.
從公平的角度來看,我們預計透過 ATM 計劃來滿足我們的所有需求。截至 9 月 30 日,我們已定價 14 億美元,完全滿足我們 '25 財年的股權需求以及我們預期的 '26 財年股權需求的很大一部分。
This recent financing activity has substantially reduced our existing shelf registration statement and exhausted our ATM program. Once we receive the necessary regulatory approvals, we intend to file for a new three year $8 billion shelf agreement and a new $1.7 billion ATM program to support our anticipated financial needs.
最近的融資活動大大減少了我們現有的貨架註冊聲明並耗盡了我們的 ATM 計劃。一旦獲得必要的監管批准,我們打算申請一項新的三年期 80 億美元的擱置協議和一項新的 17 億美元的 ATM 計劃,以支持我們預期的財務需求。
In closing like Kevin, I am very excited for the long term outlook for ATMOS energy. Our operational and financial performance in fiscal '24 has laid the foundation for sustained success into fiscal '25. And beyond the successful execution of this plan will continue to support 6 to 8% only regulated earnings per share growth and commensurate dividends per share growth while maintaining a strong financial profile, all of which supports our ability to meet our customers' needs and expectations in our growing service territory.
最後,我和 Kevin 一樣,對 ATMOS 能源的長期前景感到非常興奮。我們在 24 財年的營運和財務表現為 25 財年的持續成功奠定了基礎。除了成功執行該計劃之外,我們還將繼續支持6% 至8% 的受監管每股收益增長和相應的每股股息增長,同時保持強勁的財務狀況,所有這些都支持我們滿足客戶需求和期望的能力我們不斷擴大的服務範圍。
We appreciate your time this morning and we will now open up the call for questions.
感謝您今天早上抽出時間,我們現在開始提問。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. So at this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, please press star and then the number one on your telephone keypad will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster.
謝謝。現在可以提問。所以這時候我想提醒大家,提問時,請按星號,然後電話鍵盤上的數字1會暫停一會兒,以整理問答名冊。
Your first question comes from the line of (say she) with Barclays. Your line is now open.
你的第一個問題來自(她說)與巴克萊銀行的對話。您的線路現已開通。
Unidentified_5
Unidentified_5
Hi, good morning team. Thanks very much for taking my questions and congrats on another strong year of execution.
嗨,早上好,團隊。非常感謝您回答我的問題,並祝賀又一年的執行力強勁。
Thank you. First. I just, yeah, first, I just wanted to quickly touch on financing. For some further clarity is that if I recall previously, you target 600 to $800 million a year through ATM to support your capital program. So now you have the $8 billion shelf registration you plan to file at 1.7 ATM, you're renewing first, I guess. How should we think about the run rate going forward? And I, and also, could you just discuss a little bit of a little bit about how should we think about financing this higher capital plan outside of ATM program? Thanks.
謝謝。第一的。我只是,是的,首先,我只是想快速談談融資問題。進一步明確的是,如果我之前記得的話,您的目標是每年透過 ATM 獲得 6 億至 8 億美元來支持您的資本計畫。現在,您計劃在 1.7 ATM 上提交價值 80 億美元的貨架註冊,我猜您首先要續訂。我們該如何考慮未來的運行率?我,還有,您能否稍微討論一下我們應該如何考慮在 ATM 計劃之外為這個更高的資本計劃提供資金?謝謝。
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Okay. Well, thank you. So again, we have an incremental $15 billion financing assumption in this five year plan. Again, we want to maintain the current strength of balance sheets. If you want to assume 50% is equity, 50% is is long term debt. And then you take that 50% assumption and generally rally over the next five years. That's about what the equity need will be, be a little bit lower. That's 25 it will ramp up a little bit in 26 and beyond.
好的。嗯,謝謝。因此,我們在這個五年計畫中假設增量融資為 150 億美元。再次,我們希望維持資產負債表目前的實力。如果你想假設 50% 是權益,那麼 50% 就是長期債務。然後你採取 50% 的假設,並在未來五年內普遍反彈。這就是股權需求的大小,稍微低一點。那是 25,到 26 及以後會增加。
But I think that's how you can think about it from a, from a modeling perspective and in terms of just broader, you know, financing this, this increased CapEx program, we do believe that we were able, we will be able to satisfy the the equity needs through the ATM program as well as the continued issuance of long term debt in order to preserve and maintain the strength of balance sheet.
但我認為這就是你可以從建模角度和更廣泛的角度來思考這個問題,你知道,為這個增加的資本支出計劃提供資金,我們確實相信我們能夠,我們將能夠滿足通過ATM 計劃以及持續發行長期債務來滿足股本需求,以維持和維持資產負債表的實力。
Unidentified_5
Unidentified_5
That's great, really helpful. And if I can, if I can quickly touch on just the funding financing side of the equation regarding interest cost as we roll forward to 25 obviously, you cover $300 million for for fiscal for that year. And I guess going forward and deeper into the plan, how should we think about doing more interest rate swaps and kind of maintaining the current debt, the debt to capitalization ratio in the in the five year plan?
這太棒了,真的很有幫助。如果可以的話,如果我能快速觸及有關利息成本的等式的融資融資方面,顯然,我們將在 25 年後為該年的財政支付 3 億美元。我想,展望未來,更深入地了解該計劃,我們應該如何考慮進行更多的利率互換,並在五年計劃中維持現有債務、債務與資本比率?
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah, so I'll take the second question first on the debt capitalization. We're very comfortable with where that debt capitalization is at this point. And we tend to maintain that going forward. And in terms of the interest rate hedging, it has proven to be very successful for us in the last several years, save our customers a lot of money. And Dan and his team will continue to look for opportunities to to lock in the hedges at a point in time where we think it's appropriate to lock in that cost to provide costability going forward in the five year plan and also for the benefit of customers. So it's something we'll consider doing. Just again as we as, as market conditions continue to evolve.
是的,所以我將首先回答關於債務資本化的第二個問題。我們對目前的債務資本狀況感到非常滿意。我們傾向於繼續保持這一點。在利率對沖方面,過去幾年證明我們非常成功,為我們的客戶節省了很多錢。丹和他的團隊將繼續尋找機會,在我們認為適當的時間點鎖定對沖,以提供五年計畫中未來的成本能力,並為客戶帶來利益。所以這是我們會考慮要做的事情。正如我們一樣,隨著市場條件的不斷發展。
Great. I appreciate.
偉大的。我很欣賞。
Unidentified_5
Unidentified_5
All the colors here and I'll leave it there. Thanks again.
這裡所有的顏色我都會把它留在那裡。再次感謝。
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from line of Richard Sunderland with JP Morgan. Your line is now open.
你的下一個問題來自理查桑德蘭與摩根大通的對話。您的線路現已開通。
Richard Sunderland
Richard Sunderland
Hi, good morning you're taking for the time today.
嗨,早上好,您今天抽出時間來。
Good morning.
早安.
So starting on the CapEx side, you know, given it's a pretty staggering raise here to your five year plan. Can you parse some of the factors underpinning the higher pace of system investment? I know you gave some color at a high level on sort of 80% for safety and reliability. What have you? But I'm curious if you could give a little bit more specificity around growth change in replacement rates. Anything else driving that higher level?
因此,從資本支出方面開始,您知道,考慮到您的五年計劃的增幅相當驚人。您能否分析一些支撐系統投資加速的因素?我知道您為安全性和可靠性提供了 80% 的高水準色彩。你有什麼?但我很好奇您是否可以對替代率的成長變化提供更多具體資訊。還有什麼因素可以推動更高水準的發展嗎?
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Yeah, I, I appreciate your question. I'll point you back to what we talked about earlier, particularly around the 60 almost 60,000 new customers. This past fiscal year, it's been pretty close over the last several fiscal years. So again, we're seeing robust growth on the residential, commercial and industrial side that continues to happen year in and year out. But we continue to look at the housing starts the market stability here in Texas as we talked about with the Texas workforce commission, highlighting the employment growth that continues to occur year in and year out here. That's all driving the demand on the system. So again, we need to be out in front of that growth, have it in place for the anticipated winter needs and fueling those commercial industrial demand as well. So those are part of what's driving that growth fortification. But the other part of it again is driven by what our risk models. Our risk factor tells us on a go forward with a pipe replacement program. So just as we've done in the previous years, we're going to look to those models to guide us to where and when that's what's rolled out through the five year plan there along with meeting the expectations of demand and growth, whether it's on distribution as well as on AP T system as well. You heard the, the two or three projects we talked about there of completing line S two W A loop. Bethel the growth back that we've talked about before, as well as some of the work we're doing on storage all in this capital investment plan that we laid out.
是的,我,我很感激你的問題。我將向您指出我們之前討論過的內容,特別是圍繞 60 個近 60,000 個新客戶。上個財年,與過去幾個財年相比,情況非常接近。因此,我們再次看到住宅、商業和工業的強勁成長,並且年復一年持續發生。但正如我們與德克薩斯州勞動力委員會討論的那樣,我們繼續關注德克薩斯州的房屋開工率和市場穩定性,並強調這裡年復一年持續出現的就業成長。這一切都推動了對系統的需求。因此,我們需要領先於這種成長,滿足預期的冬季需求,並刺激這些商業工業需求。因此,這些都是推動成長強化的部分原因。但它的另一部分又是由我們的風險模型所驅動的。我們的風險因素告訴我們要繼續實施管道更換計劃。因此,就像我們前幾年所做的那樣,我們將依靠這些模型來指導我們在哪裡、何時透過五年計畫推出這些內容,同時滿足需求和成長的預期,無論是分佈以及 AP T 系統。你聽說過我們在那裡談論的兩三個項目,即完成 S 線、W 線和 A 線循環。我們之前討論過伯特利的成長,以及我們在儲存方面所做的一些工作,所有這些都在我們制定的資本投資計劃中。
Richard Sunderland
Richard Sunderland
Great, very clear. Thank you. And then turning again to some of the numbers in this update, comparing the 13 to 15% rate based growth versus your 60% EPS growth guidance. You know, the numbers seem to imply you should be at or above the top end of the earnings range. I realize there's equity solution, but I'm curious what is keeping the keg or 6 to 8%? Is there any reason you should not be at the top end or higher?
太好了,非常清晰。謝謝。然後再次轉向本次更新中的一些數字,將 13% 至 15% 的成長率與 60% 的 EPS 成長指引進行比較。您知道,這些數字似乎意味著您應該達到或高於收入範圍的上限。我意識到有股權解決方案,但我很好奇是什麼保持了小桶或 6% 到 8%?有什麼理由讓你不應該處於頂端或更高的位置嗎?
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Well, again, we, we look at our plan with a very conservative eye. There's still a lot of things as you know, just coming out of an election, what's going on around the world that we'll continue to take in our decision and thinking as we move forward there. But again, we, we believe that's our comfortable range as we've executed upon over the last several years and given where we satat today, we think that's very comfortable on a go forward.
好吧,我們再次以非常保守的眼光看待我們的計劃。如你所知,還有很多事情剛剛結束,世界各地正在發生的事情,我們將在我們前進的過程中繼續在我們的決策和思考中考慮。但我們再次相信,這是我們在過去幾年中所執行的舒適範圍,並且考慮到我們今天所處的位置,我們認為這對於前進是非常舒適的。
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Basis for us.
我們的基礎。
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Yeah.
是的。
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
I, I'll also add that we've also, excuse me, increased the, the O and MK or if you will from 3.5% to 4%. That's also a kind of modifying effect on the, on the earnings per share growth vis a vis the rate base.
我還要補充一點,對不起,我們還增加了 O 和 MK,或者如果您願意的話,從 3.5% 增加到 4%。這也是對每股盈餘成長相對於利率基礎的修正效應。
Growth.
生長。
Got it understood.
明白了。
Richard Sunderland
Richard Sunderland
Thank you for the time.
謝謝你的時間。
Today.
今天。
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Christopher Jeffrey with Mizuho Securities. Your line is now open.
下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的克里斯多福‧傑弗瑞 (Christopher Jeffrey)。您的線路現已開通。
Christopher Jeffrey
Christopher Jeffrey
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just one for me on the 25 guide kind of off of 2024. You, you mentioned in your comments about the strong benefits from the Waha spread. Just kind of how you're thinking about that year over year and kind of versus this year's level. Thanks.
嗨,大家早安。感謝您提出問題。也許對我來說,2024 年的 25 指南中只有一個。您,您在評論中提到了娃哈哈傳播帶來的巨大好處。只是你如何看待去年的水平以及與今年的水平的比較。謝謝。
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Again, as Chris said in his comments, we we've got a new writer rep benchmark that's out there approximately $107 million going into this year. Spreads did mitigate somewhat coming out of the summer period. We'll continue to look and see how weather affects that. But on a go forward, we look for things to normalize to a certain extent from what we saw earlier this summer period and that's how we will approach it on a go forward is more on a normalized basis. You know, again, most of that or all of that demand on AP T is for the L DC customers behind the pipes that are out there. So anything we'll do will have to be on off peak within the summer period when maintenance isn't occurring out there. So we'll look to that again, back on a normalized.
再次,正如克里斯在評論中所說,我們有一個新的作家代表基準,今年的收入約為 1.07 億美元。夏季過後,利差確實有所緩解。我們將繼續觀察天氣如何影響這一點。但展望未來,我們希望事情能夠在一定程度上與今年夏季早些時候所看到的情況相比正常化,這就是我們在未來更加正常化的基礎上處理它的方式。您知道,AP T 的大部分或全部需求都是針對管道背後的 L DC 客戶。因此,我們要做的任何事情都必須在夏季非高峰時段進行,那時那裡不會進行維護。因此,我們將再次關注這一點,回到正常化的狀態。
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Basis.
基礎。
Christopher Jeffrey
Christopher Jeffrey
Got it. Thanks. And then Chris, you mentioned about taking the O&M from 3.5 to 4. Just curious, Maybe what you're seeing there is that related at all to the S si writer at AP T. And kind of, is there any maybe cadence if that's front loaded, backloaded or kind of consistent?
知道了。謝謝。然後 Chris,您提到將 O&M 從 3.5 提高到 4。只是好奇,也許你所看到的與 APT 的 S si 作家完全相關。
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah, certainly between 24 and 25 we'll have a step up because of the Ss Iri or we had roughly six or $7 million flow through that 24. We're looking for closer to 20 to 25 in 2025. Again, it's offset in the, in the margin line item. But, but we're also just, you know, planning for just increased compliance related spending, you know, system survey system monitoring, more real time monitoring into the system. You, you've heard us talk about our AM LD units. We have 16 now that on the system that we're using in all eight of our states to monitor our system. A lot more closely. And then just we have employee costs as our, as our population, our, our, our customer growth continues. We'll have the key to add, you know, service sechs and the like to make sure we're properly serving those growing needs.
是的,當然,在 24 到 25 之間,我們會因為 Ss Iri 而有所進步,或者我們在 24 號期間有大約 6 或 700 萬美元的流量。我們預計到 2025 年,數量將接近 20 到 25 個。同樣,它在保證金行項目中發生偏移。但是,但是我們也只是,你知道,計劃增加與合規性相關的支出,你知道,系統調查系統監控,對系統進行更即時的監控。您,您聽說過我們談論我們的 AM LD 裝置。現在我們在所有八個州使用的系統上有 16 個這樣的系統來監控我們的系統。更密切了。然後,隨著我們的人口、我們的客戶的不斷增長,我們的員工成本也隨之增加。您知道,我們將擁有添加服務等的關鍵,以確保我們能夠正確滿足這些不斷增長的需求。
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
The additional thing there is our line locates with this growing base, particularly here in the Texas region. We continue to grow the number of line locates that we continue to do as well as the rest of the infrastructure is driving that locate. And what I mean by that is you have water infrastructure being put in with the growing population and all of those drive needs for us to go out and locate and protect our assets as well.
另外,我們的生產線位於這個不斷成長的基地,特別是在德州地區。我們繼續增加我們繼續做的線路定位數量,以及其他基礎設施正在推動該定位。我的意思是,隨著人口的增長,我們正在建立水利基礎設施,所有這些都推動了我們走出去、定位和保護我們的資產的需求。
Great, appreciate it. Congrats on the update.
太好了,欣賞一下。恭喜更新。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo with Jeffrey. Your line is now open.
你的下一個問題來自保羅·津巴多和傑弗裡的對話。您的線路現已開通。
Paul Zimbardo
Paul Zimbardo
Hi, good morning to him.
嗨,他早安。
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Good morning.
早安.
Paul Zimbardo
Paul Zimbardo
I had a couple of questions. One big, one small. The first I'll start with the bigger one.
我有幾個問題。一大一小。第一個我將從較大的開始。
There's a new very large potential natural gas customer that energys talked about like 2.3 gigawatts of combined cycle in northern Louisiana. It, it looks like you're the local gas utility there. Just any way you could frame potential whether it's kind of the local or broader capital needs relates to that and just how you're thinking about some of these lumpier economic development activities you're tracking across your footprint would be helpful.
路易斯安那州北部有一個新的非常大的潛在天然氣客戶,能源界談論的就是 2.3 吉瓦的聯合循環。看起來你是當地的瓦斯公司。無論您以任何方式建立潛力,無論是當地的還是更廣泛的資本需求,以及您如何思考您在您的足跡中追蹤的一些不穩定的經濟發展活動,都會有所幫助。
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
I don't have any specifics that we could share at this point on the Louisiana customer. But, but in general, as we talked about large industrial loads over a period of time, we work with both our state economic development group chambers of commerce and local communities on sourcing, insighting of these particular customers. What is best for them, what may benefit you know, their energy demand for natural gas, how it's located to either our distribution or transmission assets. And then we'll work with the customer on timing over over a period of years when they anticipate ramping up their usage that way. But we continue to see steady inquiries as you've heard quarter after quarter as described various aspects of the industrial sector, whether it's metals, whether it's health care, whether it's distilling, various factors continue to to drive the growth on the industrial side.
目前我沒有任何關於路易斯安那州客戶的具體資訊可以分享。但是,但總的來說,當我們談論一段時間內的大型工業負荷時,我們與我們的國家經濟發展集團商會和當地社區合作,進行採購,並洞察這些特定客戶。什麼對他們最有利,什麼可能讓你知道,他們對天然氣的能源需求,以及天然氣如何定位到我們的配電或傳輸資產。然後,我們將在幾年內與客戶合作,確定他們預計會以這種方式增加使用量的時間。但我們仍然看到穩定的詢問,正如您每個季度聽到的那樣,描述工業部門的各個方面,無論是金屬,無論是醫療保健,還是蒸餾,各種因素繼續推動工業方面的成長。
Okay, great.
好的,太好了。
Paul Zimbardo
Paul Zimbardo
So that potential customer in Northern Louisiana, is that something that could be upside to the plan? Or we should kind of think about that within the scope of your capital guidance you put out.
那麼路易斯安那州北部的潛在客戶對這個計畫有什麼好處嗎?或者我們應該在您提出的資本指導範圍內考慮這一點。
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Again, we, we have a lot of customers across our territory looking and siding on on a daily basis. We generally don't talk about those until we have certainty around contractual obligations, ready to serve, needs those sorts of things. And right now, at this point, we're not at a point where we can discuss any particulars that aren't at that that state of process.
再說一次,我們在我們的領土上有很多客戶每天都在尋找並支持我們。在我們確定合約義務、準備好服務、需要這些事情之前,我們通常不會談論這些。現在,在這一點上,我們還不能討論任何未達到該流程狀態的細節。
Paul Zimbardo
Paul Zimbardo
Okay. Understood. And then the, the smaller one just in terms of 2025 guidance and interest, it looks like it ticks down a little bit versus the, the balance is up. The weighted cost of debt is up just is that a function of lower term rates on commercial paper? Just any other dynamics that we should be cognizant of? Thank you.
好的。明白了。然後,就 2025 年指導和興趣而言,規模較小的一個,看起來比餘額上升了一點。債務的加權成本上升只是商業票據期限利率較低的函數嗎?我們還應該了解其他任何動態嗎?謝謝。
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
That's really the influence of a SE DC or capitalized interest. You know, as our spending goes up, you know, we do have a higher portion of capitalized interest. And again, with an all in weighted average cost of 4.1 ticked up very slightly, I mean, less than five or 10 basis for each year over year, it's relatively flat. And then you've got the increased capitalized interest component which is driving the net interest expense down a bit.
這實際上是 SE DC 或資本化利息的影響。你知道,隨著我們支出的增加,我們的資本化利息的比例確實更高。再說一次,由於 4.1 的總加權平均成本略有上升,我的意思是,每年的漲幅不到 5 或 10 個基點,相對持平。然後資本化利息部分增加,這使得淨利息支出略有下降。
Paul Zimbardo
Paul Zimbardo
Okay. Excellent. Makes perfect sense. Thank you, team.
好的。出色的。很有道理。謝謝你,團隊。
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Kevin Akers - president and chief executive officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
And just as a reminder before we take our last couple of questions, the prompt to enter the queue is pressing star and the number one on your telephone keypad, your next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine with Citigroup. Your line is now open.
在我們回答最後幾個問題之前提醒一下,進入隊列的提示是按星號和電話鍵盤上的數字 1,您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ryan Levine。您的線路現已開通。
And good morning and thanks for taking my questions.
早上好,感謝您回答我的問題。
What's your assumption? Good morning. What's your assumption for bad debt expense? And how does that impact the outlook look like that was excluded from the 4% 0 and M guide. And is there any lumpiness to that with some of the changes to how that's being accounted for?
你的假設是什麼?早安.您對壞帳費用的假設是什麼?這對前景有何影響,就像被排除在 4% 0 和 M 指南之外一樣。計算方式發生一些變化是否會造成混亂?
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Christopher Forsythe - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
No, really, no, no changes anticipated. It was a little bit skewed this year, obviously, with the, the change in how we record our, collect our Unible accounts in Mississippi. You know, we're kind of beginning to normalize into more of a pre pandemic state in terms of that, that debt expense, it's always going to rise a bit as a function of revenue going up a bit a bit. But as we continue to work, our, our comprehensive a collection strategy of not only just working with customers around energy assistance, offering them installment plans, levelized billing and the and the like, you know, we, we anticipate that to be fairly flat year over year in the five year plan.
不,真的,不,預計不會有任何變化。顯然,今年有點傾斜,因為我們在密西西比州記錄、收集 Unible 帳戶的方式發生了變化。你知道,我們正開始正常化為疫情前的狀態,就債務支出而言,它總是會隨著收入的增加而略有增加。但是,隨著我們繼續努力,我們的全面收款策略不僅與客戶圍繞能源援助合作,為他們提供分期付款計劃、平準化計費等,你知道,我們預計將相當平穩五年計劃中的逐年增長。
Okay. And then what are you assuming for population growth or customer count growth in the Texas market in particular?
好的。那麼您對德州市場的人口成長或客戶數量成長有何假設?
And, and how sensitive is your outlook to, to that forecast?
您對該預測的看法有多敏感?
Yeah, I would say, you know, we've assumed a growth rate that is in line with what we've experienced here over the last couple of years. You know, you heard Kevin talk earlier in the call about just continue to grow from a residential perspective. But certainly, and then on the knock on commercial impact. So we've just assumed that basically recent trends that will continue going forward in this five year plan.
是的,我想說,你知道,我們假設的成長率與過去幾年我們在這裡經歷的情況一致。你知道,你在電話會議的早些時候聽到凱文談到從住宅的角度繼續發展。但當然,還有對商業的衝擊。因此,我們只是假設基本上最近的趨勢將在這個五年計劃中繼續向前發展。
And then last question, in terms of the 4% 0 and M guidance. How lumpy is that throughout the forecast time period? Are there periods that are higher than that and others that are lower than that or any color you could share?
最後一個問題是關於 4% 0 和 M 的指導。在整個預測期間的波動程度如何?是否有比該值更高的周期,或比該值更低的周期,或者您可以分享任何顏色?
Now, I think year over year, it's going to be, I would say fairly gradual, 4% every year, you might have a little, little bit of luckiness within quarters as we move, work around to address the system needs operational constraints, so on so forth. So year over year, we expect that to be fairly level at 4% per year.
現在,我認為年復一年,這將是相當漸進的,每年 4%,當我們移動、解決系統需求運營限制時,你可能會在幾個季度內有一點點幸運,等等。因此,我們預計每年的成長率將保持在 4% 的相當水平。
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time, Mr Mazir, I turn the call back over to you.
Mazir 先生,目前沒有其他問題,我將電話轉回給您。
Daniel M. Meziere - Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer
Daniel M. Meziere - Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer
We appreciate your interest in Atmos energy and thank you again for joining us this morning. The recording of this call is available for replay on our website through December 31st. Have a great day.
我們感謝您對 Atmos 能源的興趣,並再次感謝您今天早上加入我們。本次通話的錄音可在 12 月 31 日之前在我們的網站上重播。祝你有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。