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Operator
Greetings and welcome to the Atmos Energy Fiscal 2010 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator instructions)
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Susan Giles, VP Investor Relations for Atmos Energy Corporation. Thank you. Ms. Giles, you may begin.
Susan Giles - VP, IR
Thank you, Stacy. And good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. This call is open to the general public and media but designed for financial analysts. It is being webcast live over the Internet. We have placed both a comprehensive and a condensed version of slides on our website to summarize our financial results. We will refer to page numbers from the condensed deck during this live call, but we will be happy to take questions on either presentation at the end of our prepared remarks. If you would like to access the webcast or slides please visit our website at AtmosEnergy.com and click on the conference call link.
Our speakers today are Bob Best, Executive Chairman; Kim Cocklin, President and CEO; and Fred Meisenheimer, Senior Vice President, CFO, and Treasurer. There are also other members of our leadership team here to assist with questions as needed.
As we review these financial results and discuss future expectations, please keep in mind that some of our discussions might contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Act and the Securities Exchange Act. Any forward-looking statements are intended to fall within the Safe Harbor rules of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Now I'll turn the call over to Mr. Bob Best. Bob?
Bob Best - Executive Chairman
Thank you, Susan. And good morning, everyone. And as always, we appreciate you joining us and appreciate your interest in Atmos Energy.
Yesterday we were pleased to report earnings of $2.20 per diluted share for fiscal 2010. We were also pleased to achieve our financial commitment to our shareholders of growing annual earnings per share between 4% and 6% a year on average. Our regulated operations contributed 81% of our net income number and the non-regulated businesses added a remaining 19%.
The balance sheet continued to strengthen as we ended fiscal 2010 with a debt capitalization ratio of 51.3%. Short-term debt was $126 million and is utilized this time of the year to finance the bulk of our natural gas purchases for the upcoming heating season. Yesterday, our Board of Directors declared the 108th consecutive quarterly cash dividend and raised the dividend $0.02, increasing the indicated annual dividend rate for fiscal 2011 to $1.36.
While we had a very successful year financially, we also made some very important leadership changes. We announced on October 1 that Kim Cocklin had been appointed as our new President and CEO of Atmos Energy. This was a carefully planned succession process that began when Kim join the Company in 2006. It has always been my goal to leave Atmos Energy with a solid financial base and with leadership in place who are dedicated to preserving the Company's vision and values. Kim will make a great leader for this Company and will continue our focus on financial performance, safety, customer and community service, and nurturing our culture.
I will continue to oversee the Company's Board of Directors to ensure that the Company's leadership and Board are closely aligned with our long-term strategy and goals. Kim will talk about his strategy and operational focus for the Company in just a minute. But before he does that, I'll ask our Chief Financial Officer, Fred Meisenheimer to review our financial results in greater detail. Fred?
Fred Meisenheimer - SVP, CFO
Thanks, Bob. And good morning, everyone.
Since the quarter is really a shoulder period for us, my remarks will focus on the fiscal year and earnings guidance for next year. As Bob said, our reported GAAP earnings for the year were $2.20 per diluted share. Excluding the negative impact from the mark-to-market accounting treatment required by GAAP, earnings were $2.25 per diluted share. That's at the high end of our 2010 guidance range, which also excluded the mark.
We exclude both the negative mark of $0.05 and eliminate the one-time positive $0.05 impact from the sales tax refund, our adjusted earnings were also $2.20 for fiscal 2010, which compares favorably to adjusted earnings of $2.11 per diluted share for fiscal 2009. You can see this detail on slide five in the condensed slide deck.
The real driver of our success this year has been on the regulated side of the business. Our regulated operations have continued to improve and provide stable and predictable earnings for the enterprise. Earlier adjusted earnings almost 16% year over year. Once again, our rates and regulatory strategy provided the foundation for this growth. Great relief for distribution in Atmos Pipeline-Texas combined generated $43 million of incremental margin in fiscal 2010.
In our distribution business, rate increases drove margins by about $34 million with minimal impact to average customer bills. Additionally, we benefited from an $11 million increase in consolidated throughput, primarily associated with higher residential and commercial consumption and colder weather. In spite of both rate increases and colder weather, the average customer bill remained relatively flat year over year due to the diligent management of our gas supply and lower domestic natural gas prices.
Atmos Pipeline-Texas also benefitted from an interim rate adjustment via the GRIP mechanism and higher consumption from our Mid-Tex Division. As you know, the pipeline is not weather normalized and benefited from weather in Texas that was 36% colder than last year, which increased deliveries to its [city gate] distribution customers. However, the increased demand from the utility customers could not overcome the 19% decline in producer and marketer demand for transportation capacity and increased competition.
This reduced demand, coupled with lower per unit transportation fees, which were largely a product of narrower basis spreads primarily caused year-over-year through system revenues to drop by $16 million. $39 million of through system transportation revenue was collected through fixed charges, which are associated with demand-based contracts we negotiated with producers and marketers when basis differentials were more robust. The bulk of these arrangements run through fiscal 2011.
Even though basis differentials have contracted considerably this fiscal year and negatively impacted our per unit transportation margins, we experienced a small increase in average spreads between the Waha and Katy hubs in the fourth quarter due to a pipeline outage. Spreads averaged about $0.23 compared to spreads of about $0.05 one year ago.
Turning now to the non-regulated operations, at the macro level our non-regulated operations had to navigate to negative headwinds from the sluggish economy and bearish gas market fundamentals, specifically reduced gas price volatility, historically high storage levels, a collapse in basis differentials. All of these factors contributed to a $13 million decrease or 23% decline in year-over-year adjusted earnings as seen on slide number five.
Now you may want to turn to slide seven. Atmos Energy marketing experienced a decline in delivered gas margins of almost $16 million year over year from a $0.03 drop in per unit margins, primarily due to narrowing basis spreads and a 5% decrease in overall sales volumes, primarily due to reduced demand from the constant contraction in the economy and elevated competition in our market areas.
However, our industrial volumes stabilized as the year progressed and actually grew 5% year over year. Asset optimization margins were basically flat year over year. As we discussed last quarter, during the current year spot to forward spread values narrowed throughout the year due to unfavorable natural gas fundamentals. As a result, for the last several months, AEM has maintained short-term trading positions to generate incremental realized gains from rolling positions throughout the back half of the year.
As a result of continued weak market fundamentals, cash prices have remained low and have forced spot to forward spread values to remain narrow. Consequently we have had limited opportunities to capture economic value. We anticipate spot to forward spread values to widen in the near term and we expect to be able to roll positions and capture greater economic value than what we can capture currently.
However, the short dated nature of AEM's trading portfolio, combined with the current short-term forward prices that were lower than the cost of gas that was injected into storage in prior periods, resulted in very negative economic value on September 30, 2010 of almost $8 million, as seen on slide number eight.
Operation and maintenance expense declined $26 million year over year, mainly from a continued focus on expense management and a $14 million decrease in contract labor at Atmos Pipeline-Texas, as well as a one-time $7 million state sales tax refund received earlier in the year. And net expense was virtually flat year-over-year and remains well within our control at just under a 0.25% in distribution revenues.
Operating cash flow for fiscal 2010 was about $726 million, down about $193 million from last year, mainly due to lower gas cost. 2009 operating cash flow was favorably influenced by the recovery of higher gas costs during a period of falling prices.
Moving now to our earnings guidance for fiscal 2011, we have announced our fiscal 2011 earnings per share guidance from $2.25 to $2.35 per diluted share, assuming no material mark to market impact at September 30, 2011.
Let me draw your attention to slides nine through 16, where we have outlined our budget assumptions and net income by segment for 2011. These exclude continued successful execution of our rate strategy and collection efforts, with projected operating income increases of about $50 million to $60 million annually from our rate outcomes over the next three years.
Distribution of projections were slightly lower than fiscal 2010, assuming a return to normal weather. Atmos Pipeline-Texas projections also include a return to normal demand for City Gate services. We continue to negotiate with producers and marketers whose demand based contracts begin to expire this summer as well as adding new customers. As a result, we're projecting about $37 million from these demand charges in fiscal 2011, a $2 million decline from fiscal (technical difficulty) levels of $39 million.
Incrementally, we project an additional $8 million in margins for a total of $45 million in through system revenues, primarily from a combination of transporters actually using -- utilizing 100% of their contracted capacity over and above (inaudible) demand fee. And our ability to maximize deliverability to the Katy and Howard delivery points by marketing excess capacity on a daily basis, albeit at reduced rates from last year.
Marketing margins are -- seem to be between $90 million and $100 million, again with no material impact from mark to market of our fiscal storage and offsetting financial edges. We've projected delivered gas margins to return to the fiscal 2009 levels of between 435 to 445 BcF and margins to range from $0.14 to $0.16 per MCL. The goal in AEM is to grow volume for credit worthy customers.
In fiscal 2010, the marketing team was successful in adding 167 new customers, renewing 577 customer contracts, and lost just 59 customers. All are realizing only $38,000 in write offs from bankruptcies. We expect this success to continue.
We're projecting asset optimization margins of $29 million to $33 million, assuming gas price spreads of about $1.50 per decatherm, storage demand fees of about $12 million to $13 million, and index minus fees of between $2 million and $3 million on about 18 to 20 BcF of storage.
Currently the January 2011 contracts are in the $0.55 to $0.70 range and the January 2012 contracts are around $1.60 per decatherm. However, we expect to extract incremental value by rolling the positions to short-dated months.
We have assumed average distribution gas cost purchases ranging from $4.00 to $6.00 per MCM. Short-term interest rates at the level of about 1% is a result of stronger credit ratings and a stabilized credit market.
Net issuance of 500,000 common shares for incentive plans. The positive impact of the purchased shares in fiscal 2011 through the accelerated share repurchase agreement, executed in July of 2012, of between $0.06 and $0.08 per diluted share, no material acquisitions and limiting our bad debt expense to no more than $9 million. We are projecting between $580 million and $595 million in capital expenditures in fiscal 2011. Of that, regulated CapEx is projected to be between $570 million and $582 million, and is largely driven by expenditures on steel service line replacements in our Mid-Tex Division. Non-regulated CapEx is projected to range between $10 million to $13 million.
Thank you for your time and now I'll hand the call over to Kim Cocklin. Kim?
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Thank you very much, Fred. Good morning, everyone. I'm very grateful and excited about the opportunity to begin this new role for Atmos. Our focus will continue to be on enhancing shareholder value by growing earnings and providing a total shareholder return in the range of 8% to 11% per year on average.
Continuing our financial success will require controlling those things within our ability. Managing expenses, spending precisely, choosing where to spend how to spend, when to spend, and what to spend. We'll continue to execute a very deliberate rate strategy built upon relationships with our customers and regulators, which emphasize collaboration, communication, and win-win outcomes, designed to reduce slag, improve returns, and increase margins for the country's largest pure natural gas utility that's grown through 10 acquisitions, from about 270,000 customers to over 3.1 million today. We will continue to seek growth opportunities on a very measured, conscientious and value added basis.
We excel at managing utility distribution assets and have developed a very good niche with our intrastate pipeline asset. Our non-regulated marketing business will continue to complement the earnings generated from the regulated assets through asset management arrangements and saturating the market behind the regulated utility footprint. Growth in this business will be targeted by increasing market share and improving margins.
Our balance sheet has continued to strengthen and we have been rewarded with improved ratings and outlooks from the credit rating agencies. The strength of our balance sheet and interest rates, which are very attractive, support continued emphasis on seeking opportunities to acquire assets to grow our existing footprint.
We're entering fiscal 2011 cautiously and somewhat conservatively with an eye on what's going on in Washington, DC. The uncertainly there that exists is obviously impacting short-term decisions by corporate America around capital investment, hiring practices, and benefit costs. But we're charged with managing during uncertain times and we will continue to take steps, which seek to minimize risks to the successful execution of our business and financial plans.
Finally, over the last five years we have invested over $1.3 billion in capital toward making our safe system even safer and we will continue to emphasize and invest significant capital into system integrity improvements.
Thank you for your interest in Atmos and I do look forward to sharing our story with each of you in the coming months. We'll now take your questions.
Operator
(Operator instructions) Our first question comes from Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs.
Ted Durbin - Analyst
Thanks and good morning. First question, just start it off with the Texas Pipeline case you've got -- you've filed now. Can you just tell us how you're accounting for the fact that you've got a historic test here but yet you've got some contracts where you have some basis differentials that you'd locked down that were fairly high and they'll be rolling off. In other words, it seems like the normalized earnings power is lower, yet you're showing in your tests you're probably a little higher earnings.
And then how should we think about the ROE there relative to what you're earning on your utility business in Texas, say in Mid-Tex?
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Ted, this is Kim. Good morning. Good to hear from you. The APT rate case, we filed that in September 17. It's requesting an increase of about $38.9 million and included in that increase request is a request for a return on equity of 12.75%. We're assuming a -- we're proposing a 50/50 capital structure. Current rates have a 10% ROE in it, a little lower cap structure. The -- going forward, I mean I don't know if the credit that you're talking about in terms of the third party transportation. We do have a revenue currently in the rates, which is about $32 million, I think. And we have proposed a revenue credit of about $78 million. So, I mean I think on an apples-to-apples basis we've kind of adjusted for what the experience has been during the test period.
Ted Durbin - Analyst
I see. So your credit now is lower than what you're asking for in the case? Is that --?
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Yes, the current rates have a credit of about $32 million.
Ted Durbin - Analyst
Okay. I think I understand that, but maybe I can follow up. The other question was on -- just on the marketing business. We've obviously got gas price volatility that's been pretty low and yet you're showing your guidance, you'll be up year over year in terms of what kind of earnings you think you're going to be at. I think you said you're assuming $1.50 prime [CF time] spread. Maybe just talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in the market and why you think the earnings were a little -- going to be better even though volatility's lower.
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
For the marketing business?
Ted Durbin - Analyst
Uh-huh.
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Well, I mean obviously we are -- I mean we've been a little bit more conservative we think, going into the 2011 fiscal year. Fortunately we had the experience of lower volatility, a lower basis as we put that budget together and we think that that's reflected in the budget itself. Last year we had a $2.00 spread assumption. This year we have a $1.50 spread assumption.
And I think if you look on slide 11 of the condensed deck, you see what we've anticipated in terms of gross profit contributions from each of those segments and the primary margin we're anticipating coming from the delivery GAAP side, which really growth in the marketing business is much less focused on volatility or optimization and spreads, and it's much more focused now on improving our margins and increasing our market share.
As you can -- the other I think slide 12 shows you that we're going to end 2010 with throughput of about 420 BcF and we anticipate pushing that up into the range of 435 to 445.
Ted Durbin - Analyst
Okay. So more on the physical side.
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Yes, I think we've factored into the budget the lack of volatility and the lack of basis spreads that are out there. Now that being -- we did experience last year a little up tick. You can make money interim by resetting contracts, and I think all of the marketing companies are doing that. They're picking up the $0.05 to $0.15 spreads that are out there on an interim month basis first of all.
And second of all, we did see spreads widen a little bit, either due to weather patterns that existed in the summer or winter or some of the maintenance that occurred on some of the interstate pipelines when there were capacities that were not available, which required or caused dislocations in the market, which we saw spreads widen between Waha and Katy and Carthage later in the summer during the power generation period.
Ted Durbin - Analyst
Sure, okay. Makes sense. And if I could just -- just one more actually for Bob. And this is, I guess first of all congratulations on your career here and best of luck in the future. Maybe you could just comment on given -- how your perspective on you've been in the industry for a long time, where it's been, where you see it going. Is there things that need to change in terms of consolidation, rate design, or the regulatory complex -- compact, thinking about diversification in other businesses. Just love your perspective on that.
Bob Best - Executive Chairman
Well, thank you, Ted. Well, I think for our product, first of all natural gas you know is we're not talking as an industry anymore about not having enough, which is to me a very positive thing, just really on a -- at a 50,000 level.
I think secondly, I think consolidation will continue, but we're different than most industries because being regulated it continues at a very slow place and probably a very uneven pace. I think that there'll be opportunities in the marketplace, but I look at all the acquisitions we've made in the last 13 years that I've been here and it came up at very unpredictable times, but our goal, at least as a Company has always been to keep our balance sheet in order, our credit ratings in order, our liquidity in order, continue to grow our earnings 4% to 6% a year. And wait for those opportunities.
I think sometimes regulators -- companies can continue to exist a long time, even if their rates are very high, if regulators allow that to happen. So I -- we think there'll be opportunities, but they do come at very unpredictable times.
I think for us, I mean I've watched this industry a long time. E&P, midstream, distribution, pipeline, MLPs, et cetera, and we still feel that for us our best strategy is to stay the course and stay in the business that we know. I mean I've watched this since the 1970s and it just seems like companies that have veered off into other things, be it -- I know when I started we were in barging and trucking and other things, and it never seemed to pay off from really a shareholder perspective. And companies in our space have also tried other things. And there's a few that have been successful, I give them credit, that have actually gone into E&P from a regulated, but most have not been successful.
So, I mean I view it from our perspective that we're going to -- we've said very clearly we're going to be in the natural gas business, we're not going to be in the electric business, we're not big enough to go foreign. We're -- if we can do gathering, we would continue to look at that and the pipeline business is a very good business. But we're not going to go into E&P into things that we don't feel like we have the skill sets to do.
I mean I think -- I mean this is really a commentary, but I think my own personal opinion is a lot of times ego and just people thinking that well, I've done this well, I can do anything well has led companies down primrose paths. So, we're not going to go down those primrose paths. We know who we are and we know what our mission is here and that's to grow our earnings and provide our shareholders, as Kim said, with 8% to 11% total return, counting stock appreciation and dividends.
So, that's kind of an overview, but the industry's in great shape because we have deregulation at the well head, we have no shortages, we have fairly predictable gas prices and I really predict that that's going to allow industries to make investments, they can see gas prices as far as the eye can see are going to be fairly stable and predictable. So, I think it's a great -- I mean I personally feel like it's a great time for our industry and for our Company.
Ted Durbin - Analyst
I really appreciate the perspective, Bob. Thanks, and again congratulations. That's all for me.
Bob Best - Executive Chairman
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Mike Hahn with Bryn Mawr Capital. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
Hi, good morning. Thank for taking my call. A few questions. I wanted to follow up on Ted's question. The slide 11, the delivered gas and asset optimization gross profit breakdown, what would be -- I don't see, and maybe in the slide deck I'm just missing it, but what would the comps have been for 2010?
So it seems like you're saying delivered gas growing to 435 BcF, so that's going to grow and some spread improvement and asset optimization, but maybe you're not calling -- your guidance isn't reflecting a lot of that. But I just want to kind of see what the comps were. And then I have follow-ups.
Fred Meisenheimer - SVP, CFO
Our delivered gas in 2010 was a consolidated basis volume wise was 354 [Bs], and we had a margin of $0.142. Our gross margins that we had for the year for total delivered gas was $60 million and then asset optimization was $37 million for a total of $97 million.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
Okay. So you are giving -- although you said you have seen some recent spread improvement, it does sound like you're being conservative on the asset optimization side.
Fred Meisenheimer - SVP, CFO
Yes, we believe we are using the $1.50 spread. We believe that we are very realistic on our assumptions.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
And then on the delivered gas, remind me. A lot of that is contracted and then it just depends on what volume demand is, or weather and that sort of thing?
Fred Meisenheimer - SVP, CFO
Yes.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
So --
Fred Meisenheimer - SVP, CFO
Yes.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
So that's pretty -- in term -- beyond the weather swing. That's -- you've got a pretty good view into what that's going to be like.
Fred Meisenheimer - SVP, CFO
Yes, we have a good track record there of continually increasing our volumes year over year. There we have something on the order of about 9% or a compound annual growth rate on the volumes from prior years. And our margins have decreased somewhat on the per unit, but some years if we get a weather event, those margins expand dramatically. If you go back and look in the years '05, '06, back when we had weather events, you'll see that the margins were -- per unit were quite dramatic. But we continue to increase the delivery gas volumes and retain a good customer base there.
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
We have 900 to 1,000 customers and that's really been our focus -- or I mean that is our focus with the marketing group right now, which as I can't emphasize enough, growth in the marketing business is going to be focused on increasing market share and improving our margins. And we've kind of committed to that.
We've added folks -- sales folks in the Kansas City area as well as in the Virginia area to expand into some of those markets as well. So, there's less of a reliance on optimization efforts and more on the delivered gas. And as Fred said, we've had many customers with us for 20 years or more, so we do have a good track record. And those revenues are more reliable and more stable.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
And what's the differentiation in that business? Because when I listen to other calls or commentary from other gas distribution companies, it -- there are some companies where asset optimization and summer/winter spreads are a very, very large part of their revenue. And they seem to be trying to move into more of this delivered gas approach, especially in some of the shale areas and that sort of thing.
What's the competition like in the areas that you serve? And you said that you had customers for quite a long time. Is it the type of situation where the margins are low enough that it's not really always worth it to switch? Like what are the barriers to switching and how long are the contracts?
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Our contracts are normally a year in length. And there is competition and there's becoming more and more competition in that business. There's no question people are moving away from the asset optimization because of the lack of volatility and the narrowness of the spread, so they're trying to move in.
But again, it's a function of relationships we think. We pride ourselves on bringing value added services to the table and we're reflected in that -- the [Mass GEO], the [National Mass GEO] Survey that's conducted. We were the number two gas marketer in that rating.
So, and it -- there was times this winter when it was colder than normal and this summer when it was warmer than normal when interruptible customers were having trouble getting supplies into their gate and we stepped up and were able to provide them service when others were unable to do that. So it's -- being in the business a long time, having the reputation and also having the Atmos name behind your business, we think is all very, very good.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
Okay. And then I was a little bit confused. The part of the business where the contracts begin to run off at the end of '11, that's the regulated transmission and storage. And so Ted's question about the rate case there, so basically what's happening is that your realized pricing, I mean the pricing -- it's regulated so the pricing should be pretty set. Somehow the volumes are lower? Or I just don't understand. I know you said -- and maybe I'm thinking about the wrong part of the business, but you said that you've got contracts, but some of the uncontracted business is starting to fall off. Is that regulated transmission and storage business?
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Well, it's not really falling off as much as it's being -- it's reacting to the economic conditions that are out there right now. We do have contracts in place through 2011 and we are continuing. I mean we have a very deliberate, conscientious focus on taking any capacities that will be expiring in 2011 and recontracting those capacities for whatever the market is prepared to give us.
I mean as far as the rate case goes, you build your case on a snapshot that ends March 31 of 2010 and you look at that. I mean we had that -- we've got rates that are about five years old right now, so the current revenue credit from those activities associated with those contracts is about $32 million, $33 million.
And what we have experienced and what we are proposing is to increase that credit to $78 million to reflect the activity that has occurred out there and what we expect will occur. So, it's all part of the requirements of filing the rate case and putting it together. But I mean we're not anticipating that all those revenues are just going to go away at the end of 2011.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
Okay, so basically you get a certain rate and because of the economy the volumes have fallen off. You still have some contracts that give you the amount of revenue that you expected to receive, so the credit would be to just compensate for lower volumes?
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
The credit is just to compensate for whatever revenues are -- you anticipate generating from that business.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
Okay. And then you also mentioned a $13 million impact from weather. I think that was for the year. How would that breakdown between the regulated utility and the regulated transmission and storage?
Fred Meisenheimer - SVP, CFO
Just --
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
I think we got an up tick in weather on the regulated side of the business.
Fred Meisenheimer - SVP, CFO
Yes, the $13 million is all on the pipeline Texas. And in the distribution business we had about an $11 million increase because of throughput due to the cold weather.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
Okay. So we have $11 million and then $13 million. So you really got benefits on both sides of that. And that's -- last question, thanks for your patience. What percentage of your revenues are decoupled now?
Fred Meisenheimer - SVP, CFO
Well, we have 94% are weather normalized. 86% are covered by annual rate mechanisms that provide us the opportunity to adjust rates every year without having to file a rate case. So, we have about 4% of our capital is lagged for over 12 months, which is about, I think $20 million of the investment on the regulated side of the business. Right? So we don't really talk about it in terms of what is decoupled. We do talk about a lot of the measures that we've taken to de-risk the regulated side of the business and to make the margins on that side of the business much more stable, predictable, reliable, and easier to model.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
So, is that a big difference from a few years ago? So basically what you're saying is if the economy turns down again, that there's a very small part of your business that -- that 13 -- $11 million, the one you're talking about, occurred on a very small piece of your business.
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
The $11 million that you're talking about, it was only attributable to the colder than normal weather that we experienced this winter. So you go back to assumptions on normal weather, you don't normally assume anything other than normal weather. So that was why the $11 million showed up on the regulated side of the business.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
Okay. And then in terms of you've talked about de-risking. Do you have any comparison to what that looked like five years ago or four years ago?
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Yes, if you look at the net income for the regulated utility, it's a heck of a difference. I think -- I don't know if we have the -- yes, we have the -- do we have the numbers somewhere in there?
Susan Giles - VP, IR
On slide 10.
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Okay, yes. Slide 10, you look. The natural gas distribution business, you're growing that business for $73 million, net income to $126 million in 2010. That identifies the measures that have taken place in the regulatory arena to de-risk the business. And to provide an opportunity to recover more of your fixed costs in a charge that decouples or uncouples it from throughput.
Mike Hahn - Analyst
Okay. Thanks for all your time.
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Thank you.
Operator
There are no further questions at this time.
Susan Giles - VP, IR
Great.
Kim Cocklin - President, CEO
Great.
Susan Giles - VP, IR
Well, thank you all for calling. And a recording of this call is available for replay on the website through February 8th. Additionally, we will be hosting a live webcast on Thursday, November 18 beginning at 12:15 Eastern to provide a more in-depth view of our fiscal financial projections in 2011 and key synergies for maximizing shareholder value. You will be able to access the webcast from our website at atmosenergy.com.