ATN International Inc (ATNI) 2012 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Atlantic Tele-Network fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Benincasa, please begin.

Thank you, Janine. Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us on our call to review our fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results.

With me here is Michael Prior, ATN's President and Chief Executive Officer. During the call, I will be covering the relevant financial information and certain operational data, and Michael will be providing an update on the business.

Before I turn the call over to Michael for his comments, I'd like to point out that this call and our press release contain forward-looking statements concerning our current expectations, objectives, and underlying assumptions regarding our future operating results, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those described.

Also, in an effort to provide useful information to investors, our comments today include non-GAAP financial measures. For details on these measures and reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures and for further information regarding these factors that may affect our future operating results, please refer to our earnings release and our website at ATNI.com or to the 8-K filing provided to the SEC. So with that, I will turn the call over Michael.

Thank you, Justin. Good morning everybody.

Before I get into the details, I will comment first on the overall results for the quarter and the year. The results and trends for the fourth quarter are fairly consistent with what we saw for the year, particularly the prior two to three quarters, strong operating cash flows and profitability improvements over the comparable period of 2011. These improvements were not unexpected, having seen them in the past few quarters, but we're glad to see them nonetheless.

Driving the improvement this quarter were the same primary factors -- elimination of duplicate expenses and cost reductions in US wireless, revenue growth in a number of island markets, and margin improvements in Bermuda following the integration of two businesses in that market. While we are pleased by these improvements, our US wireless operation continued to experience revenue declines due to erosion of our postpaid subscriber base.

So with that, let me just turn to some specifics, starting with US wireless. First, I just wanted to mention that despite the strategic realities as we see them, and the recent agreement to sell that unit, I wanted to mention that we are proud of a lot of what our team at Alltel has achieved. We were able to stabilize the overall subscriber base through steady gains in the prepaid market, and we were also able to dramatically improve the post-conversion customer experience overall.

So with that, let me get into some of the usual details. For the quarter, we had nearly 40,000 prepaid subscriber gross additions and approximately 9,500 prepaid net adds, both of which were down from the third quarter, but up significantly over the prior year. Postpaid gross additions came in just shy of 30,000 for the quarter, resulting in a decline in the postpaid subscriber base of a little more than 7,000.

Gross additions rose, as expected, because of the holiday selling season but not by enough to counter still high churn. So that churn, postpay subscriber churn, first, was approximately 2.9%, up from 2.7% in the third quarter and down (sic -- see Press Release -- up) from 2.6% a year ago. Part of this was due to high contract expirations, but we were still somewhat disappointed by the results and continue to struggle to overcome our unique operating circumstances.

Blended subscriber churn for the fourth quarter was 3.8%. That's up from 3.7% in the third quarter and 3.4% a year ago. Postpaid ARPU was $55.16, and that compares to $54.52 in the third quarter and $54.43 a year ago. And that's due mainly to increased data revenue and customers trading up from smaller usage plans to our unlimited plan.

Overall, subscriber ARPU was $46.79, compared to $46.87 in the third quarter and $48.56 a year ago. The decline in overall ARPU year on year was primarily driven by the shift in mix to a higher concentration of prepaid subscribers in 2012 and, to a lesser extent, by a reduction in ETC funds received in the second half of the year.

On smartphone adoption, we ended the quarter with nearly 41% of our postpaid base on smartphones. About 64% of total postpaid device sales in the quarter were smartphones, and that compares to 49% a year ago and 55% in the third quarter, so similar trends to what you've seen elsewhere in the industry. And a little over 8% of the postpaid subscriber base upgraded in the quarter.

Turning to wholesale and US wireless, wholesale roaming revenues were basically flat year on year and down, as expected, from the third quarter due to typical seasonality. Voice and data volumes declined approximately 10% to 20% in most areas from the busy third quarter.

As noted in our release, we did see an increase in overbuild activity in 2012, particularly in the Alltel markets, although for this period that was largely offset by rising data volumes. For 2013, we expect that sort of overbuild activity to continue, although it is difficult to predict the rate or level of impact. On the positive side, we expect to build or upgrade more wholesale-driven sites in the western United States in 2013, which should begin to have a positive effect on wholesale revenue by the end of this year and into 2014.

In our international operations, international wireless revenue showed solid gains due to subscriber growth and some improved economic activity in a number of our island markets. In Guyana, wireless subscribers increased slightly from the third quarter on a year ago, with subscriber ARPU increasing modestly as well.

In wireline, as reported, total wireline revenue was flat, but it's probably worth getting into a little of the details because there are a number of differing trends beneath that number. In the US wholesale wireline revenues, such as carrier backhaul, showed solid growth, and this is before completion of our major stimulus funded fiber builds.

As to those builds, they are proceeding well with over 700 miles completed and the balance of approximately 500 miles on track to be completed in the second half of this year. It's important to note, when we say completed, that means fiber is up; in a lot of cases, it's lit; but we have not turned on customers, in most cases, until the entire network is finished. And so, we're looking forward to the benefit to the revenues. It will be relatively small for ATN, but it will be positive, when that's all lit up by the end of this year.

And towards that end, we signed up a number of customers, including schools and government agencies, for service when the sites and routes go operational.

Sticking to US wireline for a moment, the traditional enterprise CLEC business is enduring some of the challenges reported nationally with enterprise unit access line equivalent pricing falling faster than volume growth. We also see pressure on the traditional copper-based services by higher capacity services, including pressure we're providing ourselves as we cannibalize that with new fiber.

Churn, churn, while up slightly, remains very low, thanks to strong customer service and network quality. But again, it's the pricing pressure in the SME market is shifting a lot of our focus to larger accounts.

Internationally, wireline voice revenue declined. International long distance in Guyana has suffered from increased bypass activities, which we believe the authorities need to do more to combat as it is plainly unlicensed and it also deprives the country of critical tax revenue.

On the other hand, broadband subscribers and total data revenue in that market continue to grow rapidly, and we are proud of the pace of growth and the availability and quality of the broadband infrastructure in Guyana which our team has brought about. In future periods, we look forward to contributing to that country's driving economic growth and efficiencies in the commercial and education sector.

So in summary, this was another strong quarter and year in the areas that ultimately matter most to us and to shareholders, which is profitability and cash flow. I should add, related to that, that we did not lightly come to the conclusion that the time was right to sell a very important operating unit. That is a relatively rare occurrence at ATN as we like to operate businesses for the long term and to deploy operating cash flow to continue to grow the Company overall.

But our charge from investors is pretty clear. We have to make those strategic decisions based on an objective analysis of the prospects of the business, not our hopes or personal preferences. And I am proud of our team's track record in putting the stockholders first and delivering steady and strong returns over time. If we invest according to our overall plan and approach, those events should remain infrequent, but they will undoubtedly continue to occur from time to time as markets and industries shift.

So with that, I will turn the call over to Justin for a more detailed financial review.

Thank you, Michael.

Revenues for the quarter totaled $184.4 million, a slight increase over the same quarter in 2011, but down 2% sequentially as the third quarter is typically our highest revenue quarter due to the seasonality of our US wholesale roaming business.

As Michael noted, US retail wireless revenues declined year over year in the third quarter, primarily as a result of the postpaid subscriber attrition over the last 12 months. However, we did see a slight sequential upturn in revenues as the overall base has grown in 2012. Total wireless revenues for the quarter were $153.1 million, or 83% of total revenues, and our US wireless service revenues were $131.8 million, or 71% of total revenues.

Adjusted EBITDA was $47 million, up $6.3 million, or 15% over the same quarter last year, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 26%.

Included in this quarter's operating expenses of $155.8 million was a non-cash stock-based compensation expense of $800,000. The quarter also included an $11.6 million gain on the previous announced sale of spectrum and related assets in our US wholesale wireless business. That transaction closed late in the fourth quarter, and for 2012 we generated revenues at an annual rate of approximately $15 million.

Also in the quarter, we recorded a $3.4 million non-cash impairment charge in the island wireless segment.

Our US wireless segment accounted for 79% of adjusted EBITDA, and interest expense in the fourth quarter declined by $1.9 million over the same period last year as a result of our amended credit facility pricing and our continued deleveraging.

While looking at net income, earnings for the quarter were $13.1 million, or $0.84 per share, compared to $4.1 million, or $0.27 per share, reported in the fourth quarter of last year.

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 50%, compared to 57% a year ago. Although down from the previous year, the rate this quarter was negatively impacted by approximately 10% due to the impairment charge I just mentioned and other discrete items. For the year, however, our effective tax rate was 42%, which we believe is a sustainable rate for the near term.

Looking at the balance sheet, as of December 31 we had cash balances of $136.6 million and total debt outstanding of $272 million, which leaves us with a net debt leverage multiple of less than one times. Net cash provided by operating activities was $50 million in the quarter and a record $187.5 million for the year.

Capital expenditures totaled $26.9 million in the quarter and $77.4 million for the year. For the quarter, approximately $15.6 million was incurred by our US wireless segment, $7 million by our international telephony segment, and $3.2 million at our US wireless segment in conjunction with the fiber builds Michael was speaking about earlier.

For the full-year 2013, we expect capital expenditures to be between $95 million and $105 million. The US wireless segment is expected to account for $50 million to $60 million of that total. Included within the US wireless estimate is approximately $20 million to $25 million of anticipated capital expenditures associated with new wholesale network expansion opportunities that we see in the western United States in 2013. This amount also includes the reinvestment of the $15.8 million of sale proceeds that I mentioned earlier.

Some additional data for the quarter, we ended the quarter with 697 base stations in our traditional wholesale territories, down from the 787 reported at the end of the third quarter, and again that was related to the sale. In our wholesale business, consistent with industry trends, MOUs were down 18% from last quarter and 22% from Q4 in 2011. Conversely, data traffic was up 28% from last year; however, down 7% from the seasonally high third quarter.

In our US wireless segment, business lines increased 31% from a year ago and 12% from last quarter, ending the quarter at approximately 74,000 lines. And internationally, access lines remained flat at approximately 150,000 lines.

So to recap the year, we achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27%; produced net earnings of $3.15 per share; paid $18.5 million in dividends, which included five payments this year; and grew cash by approximately $88 million to over $136 million, while deleveraging the Company to less than 1 times, which we feel leaves us well positioned as we move into next -- to 2013.

And with that, Operator, I'd like to open the call up for questions.

(Operator Instructions). Barry McCarver, Stephens Inc.

I guess, first off, as it relates to the CapEx, I think we can probably back into this number, but can you break out CapEx you're expecting in 2013 that would be related specifically to the assets that are going to be sold?

And then, my second question is, in terms of the $20 million to $25 million you expect to invest towards the wholesale business, can you give us an idea of the timing of those projects and when we might be seeing revenue generation begin?

I'll take the first part of that. The sale CapEx, if you will, is probably in the $20 million range.

And on the timing of the wholesale, I think the timing would be middle to late year, most of the significant capital. It's possible that could accelerate. And the revenue from that should follow more or less a quarter later in terms of significance. And keep in mind, Barry, of course, that we also have the sale of the Midwest market impacting that number from this quarter on.

Right, okay. So probably -- is it fair to say any significant revenue from the new projects in 2013, does that mostly fall to next year?

I think it could be significant by the end of the year. So I don't -- it's too hard to say at this point whether it would be adequate to fill in the gap from the sale, but I think it could start to be significant by the end of the year.

Okay. And then, my second line of questioning, just around churn in the US wireless business, you commented again in the press release that a higher number of contracts coming up for renewal could see a little more volatility in churn in 1Q. We saw a little bit of it this quarter, not anything too out of control.

Just in general, given the pending sale of the assets, does that feel like that's going to be a challenge over the course of the next two or three quarters? And as it relates to that, are you seeing any unusual advertising activities by the other large carrier in the market, as I'm sure they know that this transaction is coming down?

It's possible. On the latter point, it's possible, but I am not personally aware of that at the moment, so I'm not sure, but I'm not aware of any unusual activity yet.

I think if you look at the history of these deals, it's impossible to say that there isn't some effect. I think we have a lot of hard-charging, talented people, and I think they're pretty professional and will remain focused. And I think these markets are important to the buyer. So I think we want to show what we can do.

So I think there's some factors both ways, but it's a little more complex, a little more challenging, certainly.

Great. Okay, thanks a lot, guys.

(Operator Instructions). Ric Prentiss, Raymond James.

A couple questions. First on the Midwest markets that you sold, can you walk us through what the timeline was from the announcement, I think it was July, through when you turned it into the regulators, and then how quick it got out of the regulatory approval process?

You know, I don't know off the top of my head the answer to that, Ric, and I'm just looking at Justin (multiple speakers) -- I don't think it does.

I think it was -- I think it was three months or so, it might've been a little longer, but I don't think the regulatory process was complicated there. So I think the difference between announcement and close was mainly other, more operational details, transfers and tower (multiple speakers) paperwork and that kind of thing. So I think that was much more the driver, both on the buyer and our side as seller than the regulatory process.

And so, you can probably see where I'm headed with this. So as you think through the Alltel sale, what are your thoughts? Is it a six-month? Is it nine to 12 months? Obviously, a lot more complicated transaction, given these were assets that Verizon has divested previously that AT&T did not buy. What's your thoughts on the timeline for the Alltel transaction?

If I could predict Washington, I would be a well sought after person.

But -- so I don't think one is really a proxy for the other, Ric. It's a very different transaction, much larger. Subscribers are involved, more spectrum is involved. And so, I just think it's different. So I'll stick with what we said earlier, which is we kind of think it's a third quarter, could be later than that, kind of second half of the year or late part of the year event. It just takes time.

Sure. Probably best case, six months; most likely, maybe nine-plus months. Is that a fair assessment?

That's a fair range.

Okay. Then looking at the spending of the $20 million to $25 million in the remaining wholesale markets, that's for new base stations. What about deploying LTE? Every conference call so far on US wireless, a lot of focus on LTE, a lot of focus on the customer seemingly demanding more smartphones and 4G becoming in there, but what are your thoughts on 4G LTE and the remaining, then, continent markets?

From a wholesale standpoint, part of what we are doing this year is we are upgrading a lot of areas that were 2G still to 3G.

We do look at 4G, but I think in the areas where there is not significant subscribers, which defines these roam-only things, relatively remote areas, I think it trails in technologies by quite a bit. So it's not a terrible experience for people who are transiting through remote areas to get a 3G experience.

And so, for us, we will build 4G as soon as our customers want us to, pretty much. But I don't see that happening very soon.

If you think about spending on upgrade from 2G to 3G, how much more is it to buy something that has both 3G and 4G? Look at Sprint's vision project and T-Mobile kind of upgrading their network. What's the extra cost involved in doing it once, and what's the extra cost if you say, well, let's delay it a couple years, putting in the extra capacity or the extra capabilities of 4G?

It depends. We run multiple technologies there, and where we can, we are building up flexibility and a path to 4G to make it cheaper.

But part of what we do in those areas is we try to keep the cost as low as we can for -- so we can keep the pricing as low as we can, and these are very rural areas with small volumes. So we don't do as much anticipatory spending as you would do in other areas.

And then, lastly, you have to take into account spectrum. To go to 4G and certainly to go 4G while being 2G and 3G really -- spectrum availability and cost might be a bigger factor than capital equipment.

Hamed Khorsand, BWS Financial.

Just want to figure out, what drove the decision this year to put so much effort into the roaming business compared to prior years? In prior years, it sounded like you were just letting it roll off.

You know, it's entirely customer-driven. It's that simple.

So if our customers want us to increase technologies or increase coverage, we will build it. There's not a lot of build it and they will come in that business for us. So that's really it. I think -- the carriers need to have a 3G experience for their customer in some of these areas and they need to have better coverage in certain areas, this has kind of come together, happen to come together this year.

All right. Has there been any improvement at all as far as the data rates go? In wholesale?

Improvement from whose -- with whose perspective?

From your perspective. From generating increased revenue (multiple speakers)

Oh, data volumes. Our data volumes, you're talking about in the wholesale business?

Yes.

Okay. So in the western areas, in the sort of legacy roam-only areas, the data growth has not been nearly as much as you've seen elsewhere because we've had the slower speed technology in a lot of areas. So 2G in some and 3G in some.

As we add the 3G in particular, I think you'll see that grow. But it's also -- it's going to probably always trail a bit because of the remote nature of these places. It's not a lot of residential areas with people sitting around on data. So it's just a different factor.

And in the Alltel areas, we have seen data volume grow, as we talked about in our comments, to kind of offset the voice decline and the overbuild activity.

But Hamed, just to kind of go back to your question on the rate, as volumes go up, the pressure on rates is to go down.

I understand that. I'm just trying to figure out ROI here. As far as you're putting in $25 million, what kind of return are you expecting to get from this?

We don't -- we're expecting reasonable returns. I wouldn't say spectacular, but I think they're equity returns, they're reasonable returns, above our cost of capital.

Okay. The last topic I want to bring up is your balance sheet. You guys have pretty good cash at this quarter. And you've been talking about acquisitions. Are you going to hold off the sale to AT&T so you have a lot more cash, or are you going to have to start looking for smaller acquisitions now with the cash you have?

I think we're always looking, and there's -- certainly, there's a different prospect list or potential, at least, post-close. But I think we have a fair amount of capacity on our balance sheet today. So we are out there looking for new investment opportunities.

Okay, thank you.

(Operator Instructions). Sergey Dluzhevskiy, Gabelli & Co.

Given potential significant profits from the Alltel transaction, could you talk a little bit about your M&A philosophy, the primary criteria that you have in evaluating acquisitions? I guess Cable & Wireless Communications have been divesting [solid] separations around the world and they have meaningful presence on various islands in the Caribbean and in Panama. So would those type of businesses be of interest to you, post the AT&T transaction close?

Yes, so let me go first into overall philosophy. And as with any company, we're not going to comment on specific -- very specific opportunities.

But we've invested in the rural United States, primarily. We've invested in the Caribbean, so geographically those are areas we feel comfortable with, so we are more likely to look at prospects in those areas than elsewhere.

But if we think about philosophy, we are very cash flow driven. We will start with a [DCF] and end with one when we evaluate prospects. And so, the normal review of that and returns, and then we look at the competitive environment critically. We're a smaller player in telecom. So we look at what the competitive environment is, and is it reasonable for an infrastructure-based business. So we're very sensitive to that.

So that's our overall philosophy. And we are -- we have done a lot more in wireless. We like a lot of the fundamentals of wireless, but there are things we like in wireline. We've been looking at fiber and other broadband plays, and we are certainly interested in that as well.

Right. Could you talk a little bit about the [measure] POP number for AT&T and transaction and things? There was a question on the last call, and I was wondering if you have the exact number in terms of measuring POPs.

No, I don't have that number handy right now. Sorry.

Thank you, guys.

Ric Prentiss, Raymond James.

Thanks, a follow-up on the M&A philosophy. We've seen some other operators in Latin America move into Europe, looking at valuations there, looking at landline opportunities there. As you guys look around the regions of the world, obviously US and Caribbean -- rural US and Caribbean have been very interesting to you, but if you kind of handicap the other regions of the world, is there anything else that makes sense from a standpoint of going afield?

I think if we went to some place like Europe, for example, or Latin America or Africa, Asia is even farther afield, I think it would require something fairly big and partners, including operating partners or a management team that we had a lot of comfort and confidence in.

So we wouldn't do it lightly in any of those areas because we are not that familiar with them. But we would consider it.

As to Europe, Europe is interesting. It's got a strong rule of law going for it, which is a risk you face in emerging markets. The negative is there is a lot of competition from big players, and there is a fair amount of regulatory uncertainty in terms of spectrum policy and other policies there. So it's not for the faint of heart.

I know that -- I think it was America Movil you're referring to, Carlos Slim going into Europe, and I think that's interesting, but he operates at a very different scale than us. And so, I think there's a lot easier done for that entity than us.

Makes sense. You also obviously mentioned spectrum, back my earlier question, as far as you have enough for 2G, 3G, 4G, maybe tight. As you think about your balance sheet and potential spending, where does spectrum fall on the list, and also maybe from a timing standpoint?

I think spectrum has some interest to us. The trick, you've got to be careful. It has to be spectrum. You don't want to win an auction against people who can put it to use with great synergies immediately because you're probably paying more than you should.

So you have to be selective as a company our size and look for where we really can marry it with an operating opportunity we see. Or use it to build strategically over time an operating opportunity. So, certainly spectrum is on our radar screen with those kind of parameters.

Makes sense. And the final question I've got for you guys is on LTE again. When you think about your history, you've been able to build those multiple technologies in areas where it doesn't make sense for other people to build a standalone. As we look at 4G, it seems like LTE is a unifying technology. What are your thoughts as far as the overbuild threat in an LTE environment, or network sharing, or is it that you can still bring a competitive advantage in a 4G world and those type markets?

That's a good question, Ric. I think that's down the line a ways, but it's a fair question.

I think that it is -- it provides in many areas opportunity because it provides opportunity for us to provide an even more cost effective shared infrastructure solution. There may be some areas where there is -- there's existing technologies from other players, and I guess to some extent that could provide a threat with convergence.

But I think we've delivered -- we deliver well for our customers there. We're very responsive and we're trusted. We've been doing it for a long time. So I think we have some decent competitive advantages, even in those areas.

But what we have to do always is as those costs come down and we are -- we have to pass along that to customers and continue to make it attractive to them as really an outsourced solution.

And I guess side question I should've thrown in there, any opportunities with the whole FirstNet public safety project moving forward?

I think it's too soon to tell. I think there is some interest. We're certainly aware of it. We operate in a lot of pretty broad geographic area that we might be able to help, in some of the smaller communities, help provide a solution. So we're interested in it. I don't think there's anything specific at this point.

Great. Thanks, guys.

I'm showing no further questions in the queue. I would like to turn the conference back to management for any further remarks.

We have no further remarks. Thank you, everybody, and we'll see you sometime in the next couple of months when we are rolling out the first quarter. Appreciate it. Take care.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's program. This does conclude the conference, and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.