Atkore Inc (ATKR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Mark, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Atkore's third quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Matt Kline, best Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin, sir.

早安.我叫馬克，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 Atkore 2024 財年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。謝謝。現在我想將會議交給東道主馬特·克萊恩（Matt Kline），他是財政部和投資者關係部的最佳副總裁。謝謝。您可以開始了，先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined today by Bill Waltz, President and CEO, as well as David Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Bill and David. I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we may make projections or forward-looking statements regarding future events or financial performance of the company. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties such that actual results may differ materially.

謝謝大家，大家早安。今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長比爾‧沃爾茲 (Bill Waltz) 以及財務長大衛‧約翰遜 (David Johnson)。我們將在比爾和大衛發表評論後回答您的問題。我想提醒大家，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會對公司未來事件或財務表現做出預測或前瞻性陳述。此類陳述涉及風險和不確定性，因此實際結果可能存在重大差異。

Please refer to our SEC filings and today's press release which identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. In addition, any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA and any reference to EPS or adjusted EPS mean adjusted diluted earnings per share.

請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件和今天的新聞稿，其中確定了可能導致實際結果與我們的預測或前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異的重要因素。此外，我們今天討論中提及的任何 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA，任何提及 EPS 或調整後的 EPS 均指調整後的稀釋每股收益。

Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted earnings per share are non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures and a presentation of the most comparable GAAP measures are available in the appendix to today's presentation.

調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的稀釋每股盈餘是非公認會計準則衡量標準。今天簡報的附錄中提供了非公認會計準則衡量標準的調節表以及最具可比性的公認會計準則衡量標準的介紹。

With that, I'll turn it over to Bill.

有了這個，我會把它交給比爾。

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 3, in the third quarter, organic volume was essentially flat year-over-year. We saw strength in our construction services business due to large mega projects and from solar due to increased production in our Hobart, Indiana facility. These gains were offset by broad pricing softness across most of the Electrical business. We did not see a noticeable summer construction uptick in demand as is generally the case.

謝謝馬特，大家早安。從幻燈片 3 開始，第三季的有機銷售量與去年同期基本持平。由於大型專案和印第安納州霍巴特工廠產量的增加，我們看到了建築服務業務的實力。這些收益被大多數電氣業務的普遍定價疲軟所抵消。我們沒有看到夏季建築需求像通常情況那樣明顯上升。

Pricing was softer than expected due to the slower end markets, particularly for our PVC conduit business and higher concentration of large projects where pricing tends to be more competitive. Overall, selling prices were also down 4% sequentially from the second quarter.

由於終端市場放緩，特別是我們的 PVC 導管業務以及大型專案的集中度較高（價格往往更具競爭力），定價低於預期。整體而言，銷售價格也較第二季季減了 4%。

Volume grew 8% sequentially and 4% year-to-date. The third quarter proved to be more challenging than we initially projected, while our net sales were within the range of the outlook we presented back in May. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS were both off the midpoint by 4%.

銷量較上月成長 8%，今年迄今成長 4%。事實證明，第三季比我們最初預期的更具挑戰性，而我們的淨銷售額仍在我們五月提出的前景範圍內。調整後 EBITDA 和調整後稀釋每股盈餘均較中點下降 4%。

Our lower-than-projected EBITDA was due to overall softer-than-expected market conditions. We believe the current market is flat to slightly lower than last year. However, this trend varies by major business. Another challenge we are facing is an increasing amount of imported steel conduit coming primarily from Mexico. There are currently provisions in place between both countries that are meant to limit the amount of steel conduit imports. However, the statistics reveal the amount of conduit shipped from Mexico into the United States far exceeds these negotiated limits.

我們低於預期的 EBITDA 是由於整體市場狀況弱於預期。我們認為當前市場與去年持平或略有下降。然而，這種趨勢因主要業務而異。我們面臨的另一個挑戰是主要來自墨西哥的進口鋼管數量不斷增加。目前兩國之間已製定了旨在限製鋼管進口數量的規定。然而，統計數據顯示，從墨西哥運往美國的管道數量遠遠超過了這些談判的限制。

This reality has been acknowledged by others within the industry, prompting a call to action. These increased amounts of foreign steel conduit natively impact our volume year-over-year, while the overall market inclusive of imports has grown year-over-year.

這一現實已得到業內其他人的認可，促使人們呼籲採取行動。外國鋼管數量的增加本身就影響了我們的銷售量，而包括進口在內的整體市場也逐年成長。

We also continue to experience softness in the telecom and the utility markets. Despite the challenges we are facing in the market, we are progressing well in our own operations and are confident in our long-term opportunities.

我們也繼續經歷電信和公用事業市場的疲軟。儘管我們在市場上面臨挑戰，但我們自身的營運進展順利，並對我們的長期機會充滿信心。

We are pleased to share that our production and shipments of solar torque tubes at our Hobart, Indiana facility improved meaningfully from the second quarter to the third quarter. We continue executing our capital deployment strategy during the quarter by repurchasing $125 million in shares, bringing our year-to-date total for share repurchased to more than $280 million.

我們很高興地與大家分享，我們印第安納州霍巴特工廠的太陽能扭矩管的生產和發貨量從第二季度到第三季度有了顯著改善。我們本季繼續執行資本部署策略，回購了 1.25 億美元的股票，使我們年初至今的股票回購總額超過 2.8 億美元。

On that note, I want to remind everyone that as we near the end of our previously approved multiyear $1.3 billion share repurchase authorization, our Board of Directors authorized a new $500 million buyback program in May, which will be available upon the completion of our existing plan. This new authorization is consistent with our commitment to returning capital to shareholders and reflects the Board's continued confidence in the compelling value of Atkore shares.

在這一點上，我想提醒大家，隨著我們之前批准的13 億美元的多年期股票回購授權即將結束，我們的董事會於5 月份批准了一項新的5 億美元的回購計劃，該計劃將在我們現有的回購計劃完成後實施。這項新授權符合我們向股東返還資本的承諾，並反映了董事會對 Atkore 股票令人信服的價值的持續信心。

In light of the challenging market environment, we are adjusting the midpoint of our fourth quarter EBITDA outlook. However, we remain confident in the long-term opportunities for our diversified product portfolio. Overall, our broad product portfolio provides essential elements for nearly all types of construction, especially those that support secular trends, including solar power, data centers, artificial intelligence, infrastructure digitization, grid hardening and support for the energy transition.

鑑於充滿挑戰的市場環境，我們正在調整第四季 EBITDA 展望的中點。然而，我們對多元化產品組合的長期機會仍然充滿信心。總體而言，我們廣泛的產品組合為幾乎所有類型的建築提供了基本要素，特別是那些支持長期趨勢的建築，包括太陽能、資料中心、人工智慧、基礎設施數位化、電網強化和對能源轉型的支持。

The breadth of our product portfolio enables Atkore to be resilient to changing end market demand while remaining a supplier of choice across our channel partners.

我們產品組合的廣泛性使 Atkore 能夠適應不斷變化的終端市場需求，同時仍是我們通路合作夥伴的首選供應商。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David to talk through the results from this quarter.

這樣，我將把電話轉給大衛，討論本季的結果。

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Moving to our consolidated results on slide 4. In the third quarter, net sales were $822 million and our adjusted EBITDA was $206 million. We delivered a strong adjusted EBITDA margin of over 25%. Our tax rate in the quarter was just under 22%.

謝謝你，比爾，大家早安。前往投影片 4 上的綜合結果。第三季淨銷售額為 8.22 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.06 億美元。我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率超過 25%。我們本季的稅率略低於 22%。

As a reminder regarding the year-over-year comparison of our tax rate and adjusted diluted EPS, the change in our accounting treatment for the solar credits associated with the IRA in the third quarter of fiscal 2023 drove a tax benefit that lowered our effective tax rate to less than 9%, as we recognized three quarters of the expected benefits in Q3 of 2023.

關於我們的稅率和調整後攤薄每股收益的同比比較，我們在 2023 財年第三季度對與 IRA 相關的太陽能積分進行會計處理的變化帶來了稅收優惠，從而降低了我們的有效稅收由於我們在2023 年第三季確認了預期效益的四分之三，因此成長率降至9% 以下。

During the third quarter last year, we changed the accounting treatment from what we had recorded in the first two quarters. This change reflected the benefit of the credit as a reduction of tax provision rather than a reduction in cost of sales. This lower tax rate also helped contribute $0.50 to our higher-than-expected adjusted EPS of $5.72 last year.

去年第三季度，我們改變了前兩個季度記錄的會計處理方式。這項變更反映了稅收抵免的好處是減少了稅收準備金，而不是減少了銷售成本。較低的稅率也為我們去年高於預期的調整後每股收益 5.72 美元貢獻了 0.50 美元。

Turning to slide 5 in our consolidated bridges. Our volume in the quarter was essentially flat compared to the prior year, while net sales were at the midpoint of our guide. Our third quarter results were below expectations. While we saw sequential growth in net sales during the quarter, we did not see a lift from the seasonal construction demand.

轉向我們的綜合橋樑中的幻燈片 5。與前一年相比，我們本季的銷售量基本上持平，而淨銷售額處於我們指引值的中點。我們第三季的業績低於預期。雖然我們看到本季淨銷售額連續成長，但我們沒有看到季節性建築需求的成長。

Typically, our third quarter benefits from the seasonality and we see sequential profit growth. The net impact from solar credits was a reduction in EPS of $0.37 year-over-year. As mentioned in my comments on the previous slide, our change in accounting a year ago added $0.50 to EPS.

通常，我們的第三季受益於季節性，我們看到利潤連續成長。太陽能積分的淨影響是 EPS 年減 0.37 美元。正如我在上一張投影片的評論中提到的，我們一年前的會計變更使每股收益增加了 0.50 美元。

Moving to slide 6. Our year-to-date volume increased 4% compared to the prior year, with contributions across the portfolio. We continue to see growth in our overall PVC products category. Our metal framing products also contributed to growth as they benefit from data center expansion. Our year-to-date performance has been impacted by continued softness in the telecom market.

轉到投影片 6。與前一年相比，我們今年迄今的交易量成長了 4%，整個投資組合都做出了貢獻。我們的整體 PVC 產品類別持續成長。我們的金屬框架產品受益於資料中心的擴張，也促進了成長。我們今年迄今的業績受到電信市場持續疲軟的影響。

As Bill outlined earlier, our steel conduit business has met resistance from a significant increase in imported conduit. Our year-to-date volume has been negatively impacted by this surge in imports. That said, we remain confident in the long-term potential of our diversified portfolio. We expect that our portfolio of value-added products, along with our resilient business model. We continue to provide us with sustainable growth opportunities as our markets stabilize.

正如比爾之前概述的那樣，我們的鋼導管業務遇到了進口導管大幅增加的阻力。我們今年迄今的銷量受到進口激增的負面影響。儘管如此，我們對多元化投資組合的長期潛力仍然充滿信心。我們期望我們的增值產品組合以及我們富有彈性的業務模式。隨著市場穩定，我們將繼續為我們提供可持續成長的機會。

Turning to slide 7, both segments had strong EBITDA margin performance in the third quarter. Our Electrical segment achieved 30% margins. Price versus cost continues to be unfavorable on a year-over-year basis. Last quarter, we acknowledged that in addition to PVC price compression, we also experienced year-over-year declines from our HCP business, which continued this quarter.

轉向幻燈片 7，這兩個部門在第三季的 EBITDA 利潤率表現強勁。我們的電氣部門實現了 30% 的利潤率。與去年同期相比，價格與成本仍不利。上季度，我們承認，除了 PVC 價格壓縮外，我們的 HCP 業務也出現了同比下降，本季這種情況仍在繼續。

Our S&I segment EBITDA margins continued the trend of sequential improvement since the first quarter, achieving just under 14% in the third quarter. This improvement is due in part to better operational performance at our Hobart, Indiana facility.

自第一季以來，我們的 S&I 部門 EBITDA 利潤率延續了連續改善的趨勢，第三季達到略低於 14%。這項改進部分歸功於我們印第安納州霍巴特工廠更好的營運績效。

Turning to slide 8, we continue to execute our capital deployment model, supported by robust cash flow generation. The strength of our balance sheet allows us to be flexible in the way we deploy capital to deliver value for our shareholders.

轉向幻燈片 8，我們在強勁的現金流產生的支持下繼續執行我們的資本部署模型。我們的資產負債表實力使我們能夠靈活地部署資本，為股東創造價值。

With that, I'll turn it back to Bill to talk through some updates relating to our FY 2024 outlook as well as our views on FY 2025.

接下來，我將把話題轉回比爾，談談有關我們 2024 財年展望以及我們對 2025 財年的看法的一些最新情況。

Thank you, David. Turning to slide 9. While we achieved three consecutive quarters of adjusted EBITDA over $200 million in fiscal 2024, we currently believe that Q4 will be lower than this trend due to ongoing softness in the overall market which has led to a more challenging pricing environment.

謝謝你，大衛。轉到投影片 9。雖然我們在 2024 財年連續三個季度調整後 EBITDA 超過 2 億美元，但我們目前認為，由於整體市場持續疲軟，導致定價環境更具挑戰性，第四季度將低於這一趨勢。

As we look forward to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, we are amending the midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA outlook to $145 million. Our fourth quarter outlook reflects a continuation of -- or an acceleration of several factors that have impacted us, most notably, the pricing dynamics in PVC and import issues in steel conduit, in addition to the overall soft markets diminishing volume growth.

在展望 2024 財年第四季時，我們將調整後 EBITDA 前景的中點修改為 1.45 億美元。我們對第四季度的展望反映了影響我們的幾個因素的持續或加速，最值得注意的是，除了整體市場疲軟導致銷售成長減少之外，PVC 的定價動態和鋼管的進口問題。

As I've discussed at the start of the call, we expect the softness in overall market to continue into the fourth quarter which impacts both volume and price. Further, domestic manufacturers of steel conduit are likely to face continued pricing pressures come with these elevated and increasing steel conduit imports.

正如我在電話會議開始時所討論的那樣，我們預計整體市場的疲軟將持續到第四季度，這會影響銷售和價格。此外，隨著鋼管進口的增加和增加，國內鋼管製造商可能面臨持續的價格壓力。

Turning to slide 10, we have updated our key bridging assumptions for the full year which is reflective of the items mentioned earlier which are likely to impact our fourth quarter performance. We are currently in our annual planning process. As we look beyond fiscal year 2024, we now believe that FY25 will be our new earnings base.

轉向投影片 10，我們更新了全年的關鍵過渡假設，這反映了前面提到的可能影響我們第四季業績的項目。我們目前正在進行年度規劃過程。當我們展望 2024 財年之後，我們現在相信 25 財年將成為我們新的獲利基礎。

We expect to see EBITDA improvements from some of our growth initiatives related to solar, HDPE, water, construction and our regional service centers. Some of these initiatives are still significantly below our original expectations and where we expect these businesses to operate in the midterm but we do anticipate them to contribute positively year-over-year.

我們預計，我們與太陽能、HDPE、水務、建築和區域服務中心相關的一些成長計劃將帶來 EBITDA 的改善。其中一些舉措仍大大低於我們最初的預期，我們預計這些業務將在中期運營，但我們確實預計它們將同比做出積極貢獻。

For the remainder of the business, we expect to see continued productivity improvements and overall modest volume growth in the low single digits with a possibility of higher growth as new switchgear capacity comes on board and further supported by the prospect of a lower interest rate environment.

對於其餘業務，我們預計生產率將持續提高，整體銷量將保持在低個位數的溫和增長，並且隨著新開關設備產能的投入以及較低利率環境前景的進一步支持，可能會出現更高的增長。

The larger question that remains is what the pricing environment will be as we progress through FY25. We expect the environment to remain challenged through the remainder of this year and into FY25. Although there are many uncertainties at this time, we will have a more important perspective in November, our initial EBITDA estimate for FY25 would be around $650 million given the market environment. However, this estimate could go higher construction activity in areas such as residential and utility starts to improve.

剩下的更大問題是，隨著 2025 財年的進展，定價環境將會如何。我們預計今年剩餘時間和 2025 財年環境仍將面臨挑戰。儘管目前存在許多不確定性，但我們將在 11 月有更重要的視角，考慮到市場環境，我們對 2025 財年 EBITDA 的初步估計將在 6.5 億美元左右。然而，這一估計可能會導致住宅和公用事業等領域的建築活動開始改善。

We anticipate having strong free cash flow and will continue to be investor-centric in our capital deployment strategy. We remain focused on preserving our history of transparency and we'll continue to provide updates on key topics that impact our business.

我們預計將擁有強勁的自由現金流，並將繼續在我們的資本部署策略中以投資者為中心。我們仍然致力於保持透明度的歷史，並將繼續提供影響我們業務的關鍵主題的最新資訊。

Before we go into Q&A, I also want to address the announcement we made relative to David's departure. Atkore has been extremely fortunate to have David's leadership over the past six years. Under his leadership, Atkore has created a balanced capital deployment model, enabling acquisitions, internal investments, stock repurchases and quarterly dividends to drive value creation for our shareholders. David will be missed both as a colleague and an Atkore teammate and we truly wish him the best in his next chapter. Thank you, David.

在我們進行問答之前，我還想談談我們發布的有關大衛離職的公告。在過去的六年裡，Atkore 非常幸運能夠得到 David 的領導。在他的領導下，Atkore 創建了平衡的資本配置模式，支持收購、內部投資、股票回購和季度股息，以推動為股東創造價值。作為同事和 Atkore 隊友，我們都會懷念 David，我們衷心祝福他在下一個篇章中一切順利。謝謝你，大衛。

Looking ahead, Atkore has a strong model for organizational leadership succession planning which enables a smooth transition. We're fortunate to have two incredibly strong leaders in John Deitzer and James Albe, who will assume the role of Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer, respectively, as of August 9.

展望未來，Atkore 擁有強大的組織領導繼任計畫模型，可實現平穩過渡。我們很幸運擁有兩位極其強大的領導者 John Deitzer 和 James Albe，他們將於 8 月 9 日起分別擔任財務長和首席會計官。

We look forward to all that is to come with this new phase in Atkore leadership. John and James are working closely with David to ensure a seamless transition and we are fortunate to have a deep and talented financial team that will help support John and James as they get up and running in their new roles.

我們期待 Atkore 領導力新階段所帶來的一切。約翰和詹姆斯正在與大衛密切合作，以確保無縫過渡，我們很幸運擁有一支深厚且才華橫溢的財務團隊，將幫助支持約翰和詹姆斯在新職位上的起步和運作。

With that, we'll turn the call over to the operator to open the line for your questions.

這樣，我們會將電話轉給接線員，以解答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Andy Kaplowitz, Citi Group.

（操作員說明）Andy Kaplowitz，花旗集團。

Good morning, everyone. David, thanks for your help.

大家早安。大衛，謝謝你的幫忙。

Thanks, Andy. I appreciate it.

謝謝，安迪。我很感激。

So obviously, you revised higher the amount of price versus cost normalization to $325 million this year versus the initial $250 million. But could you give us your latest thoughts on what the overall price cost normalization could end up being versus that initial estimate you gave us of $585 million. And then I think you said, Bill, $650 million is your initial estimate of EBITDA for '25. When we think about the exit rate in Q4 of [$1.45], can you give us some color what would be the puts and takes versus that run rate in '25? Anything to quantify would be helpful.

顯然，今年您將價格與成本正常化的金額從最初的 2.5 億美元修正為 3.25 億美元。但您能否告訴我們您對整體價格成本正常化最終可能與您最初估計的 5.85 億美元相比的最新想法。然後我想你說過，比爾，6.5 億美元是你對 25 年 EBITDA 的初步估計。當我們考慮第 4 季的退出率 [1.45 美元] 時，您能否給我們一些解釋，與 25 年的運行率相比，看跌期權和持倉期權是多少？任何可以量化的東西都會有幫助。

Sorry, Andy. Obviously, two very important questions. I think when you look at the $325 million this year, I will remind everyone that a portion of that does include HDPE, which would not have been in our original estimate of the $585 million. So if you assume somewhere around $35-plus million or so of that price cost is in the $325 million, we would have been just under $300 million this year. So yeah, that to the $250 million last year, you're at $550 million or so against the $585 million.

對不起，安迪。顯然，這是兩個非常重要的問題。我想，當你看到今年的 3.25 億美元時，我會提醒大家，其中一部分確實包括 HDPE，這並不在我們最初估計的 5.85 億美元中。因此，如果您假設 3.25 億美元的價格成本約為 35 億美元左右，那麼我們今年的成本將略低於 3 億美元。所以，是的，去年的 2.5 億美元是 5.5 億美元左右，而去年的 5.85 億美元是 5.85 億美元。

Given where we are right now, what we saw last quarter and what's built into our Q4 forecast, you would expect next year to be over 200 -- [$200 million], [$250 million] type of range. And then you will see some benefits from our initiatives coming up. Obviously, you'll see some from solar year-over-year, our global mega projects so on and so forth, Andy. Very modest kind of volume built into that $650 million number, which is what Bill mentioned. So hopefully, that helps out.

考慮到我們現在所處的位置、我們上季度看到的情況以及我們第四季度預測中的內容，您預計明年將超過 200 - [2 億美元]、[2.5 億美元]類型的範圍。然後您將看到我們即將推出的舉措帶來的一些好處。顯然，安迪，你會看到一些來自太陽能、我們的全球大型計畫等等的年復一年。比爾提到的 6.5 億美元的數量非常有限。希望這能有所幫助。

It does. And then Bill, maybe you could elaborate a little more on what changed in the environment between last quarter and this quarter. I think last quarter, you did talk about a weaker start to the construction season, but it seems like conditions on the ground got a fair amount worse.

確實如此。然後，比爾，也許您可以詳細說明上季度和本季之間環境發生的變化。我認為上個季度，您確實談到了建築季節的開局疲軟，但似乎當地的情況變得相當糟糕。

Did you see any more project delays than you thought? Did your customers start destocking? And then you do have pretty severe decrementals in Q4 versus Q3. Is that just all prices? Is there something else going on?

您是否發現專案延遲比您想像的要多？您的客戶開始減少庫存了嗎？然後，與第三季相比，第四季確實出現了相當嚴重的下降。這只是所有價格嗎？還有其他事情嗎？

Yeah, Andy. I'll say yes, all of the above. So in other words, you have to remember kind of either our products or our markets. So we serve all markets and we're proud of that. And things like data centers are really strong and moving ahead and so forth, as David just spoke about, as we go into next year in solar and so forth.

是的，安迪。我會說是的，以上都是。換句話說，您必須記住我們的產品或我們的市場。因此，我們為所有市場提供服務，我們為此感到自豪。正如大衛剛才談到的，數據中心之類的東西非常強大並且正在向前發展等等，隨著我們進入明年的太陽能等領域。

But obviously, markets, whether it's commercial construction, I assume from you or other shareholders and so forth, the utility markets are weak right now. Again, that should bounce back hopefully, as we get in the second half and all the other long-term secular trends.

但顯然，市場，無論是商業建築，我認為你或其他股東等等，公用事業市場目前都很疲軟。同樣，正如我們在下半年和所有其他長期長期趨勢中所看到的那樣，這應該會有望反彈。

But right now, for most of our markets and essentially, we called out on the one page, the deck where we showed the percent, the one or two key markets. So that's where like, okay, we serve everything. But if you're PVC, hey, it's utility and residential and there's just not subdevelopment being built at this stage and, obviously, multifamily home is down. So the specific markets that drive us most are much quieter.

但現在，對於我們的大多數市場，本質上，我們在一頁上大聲喊出，我們在其中顯示百分比，一兩個關鍵市場。所以這就是我們提供一切服務的地方。但如果你是PVC，嘿，它是公用事業和住宅，而且現階段還沒有進行次級開發，顯然，多戶住宅正在下降。因此，對我們影響最大的特定市場要安靜得多。

I do think there's job delays. I would have to start speculating on how much when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, but that should pick up even into next year, but the markets and -- whether you look at public companies, whether a distributor or others that have commented in our markets, but I can tell you from talking without naming them, these two of the top 10 largest distributors that are private are seeing the same thing we're seeing, quite frankly, I think, worse than we're seeing. So there is a little bit of us using our RSCs and so forth that -- it's a down market and the market -- the end market and the markets we serve right now.

我確實認為工作有延誤。我將不得不開始猜測聯準會何時開始降息，但降息幅度甚至會持續到明年，但市場——無論你看看上市公司，無論是分銷商還是其他在我們的評論中發表評論的人市場，但我可以透過談論而不點名告訴你，這兩家最大的10 家私人分銷商也看到了我們所看到的同樣的情況，坦白說，我認為比我們所看到的更糟。因此，我們中有一些人使用我們的 RSC 等人——這是一個低迷的市場和市場——終端市場和我們現在服務的市場。

So and that is driving more price competition Andy, than we thought that, again, I can't control, obviously, what our competitors do is they try to fill factories or listen to somebody else saying here's the price you need and reacting to that. David did call that out, I think, in our prepared earnings as we looked at this quarter -- here he say, hey, if the markets are weaker and they are, and as -- obviously, it's a crystal ball.

因此，這推動了更多的價格競爭，安迪，比我們想像的還要明顯，我無法控制，顯然，我們的競爭對手所做的是他們試圖填充工廠或聽別人說這是你需要的價格並對此做出反應。我認為，大衛在我們準備的本季收益報告中確實指出了這一點，他在這裡說，嘿，如果市場走弱，而事實確實如此，顯然，這是一個水晶球。

But as we go into next quarter, I'd rather get out in front of it now and pick numbers that, obviously, it's a forecast, but we expect to hit or exceed probably like every quarter and then just focus on our fundamentals, which I'm absolutely so convinced of our people and the long-term strategies.

但當我們進入下個季度時，我寧願現在就走出去，選擇一些數字，顯然，這是一個預測，但我們預計每個季度都會達到或超過，然後只關注我們的基本面，這我對我們的員工和長期策略非常有信心。

So one just -- one more quick one for me. You mentioned increased import pressure in steel conduit. Can you give us a little more perspective on how much of an impact that is happening on the business. We know Metal conduit is 20% of your business, but since you called it out, is it having an even bigger impact on your business than that? And I think you are seeing increased competition within Core PVC but is it really the steel stuff that hits you more this quarter?

所以，對我來說，再快一點。您提到鋼管進口壓力增加。您能否讓我們更了解這對業務的影響有多大。我們知道金屬導管佔您業務的 20%，但既然您指出了這一點，它對您業務的影響是否比這更大？我認為您會看到 Core PVC 內部的競爭加劇，但本季對您打擊更大的真的是鋼鐵材料嗎？

Yeah, Andy, you did. That's where, again, I assume every company has but trying to be transparent. As we go from our fiscal Q3 to Q4, I don't want to rank, but I'll just say it's in the top two of challenges in the following way, just give more color here. There's always almost for every product when customers ask, is there an import. Well, yeah, there's a little bit of like cable, I'm making up a number but on low single digits, 1% or something coming from Canada.

是的，安迪，你做到了。我再次認為這就是每個公司都有的地方，但試圖保持透明。當我們從第三財季進入第四財季時，我不想排名，但我只想說它是按以下方式排在前兩個挑戰中的，只是在這裡給出更多的顏色。當顧客問起幾乎每一種產品是否進口時，都會有這樣的答案。嗯，是的，有一點像電纜，我正在編造一個數字，但是低個位數，1% 或來自加拿大的東西。

Steel conduit has been that way and it's grown over 10 years or so from 3% to 5% out quite frankly, somewhere around 20%. And there still -- there still is a preference for made in the USA, the quality of the products, everything else we're doing electro contractors here, better appreciate our brands and support American made.

鋼管一直都是這樣，並且在大約 10 年的時間裡從 3% 增長到 5%，坦白說，大約在 20% 左右。儘管如此，人們仍然偏愛美國製造，產品質量，我們在這裡做的電子承包商的其他一切，更好地欣賞我們的品牌並支持美國製造。

But it's grown to the point that whether I move first or my domestic competitors have moved to the point that you just can't tolerate a 15% price decline in that product. And these are all rough numbers, it's on the quote job. So as we factor that back into our business here to respond. At some point, you can ignore 5% market share. You can't, at some point you just can't ignore competition coming in and undercutting the market.

但事情已經發展到這樣的地步：無論是我先行動還是我的國內競爭對手已經行動到了你無法容忍該產品價格下降 15% 的地步。這些都是粗略的數字，這是在報價工作中。因此，當我們將其納入我們的業務中以做出回應時。在某些時候，你可以忽略 5% 的市佔率。你不能，在某些時候你不能忽視競爭的到來並削弱市場。

(multiple speakers)

（多個發言者）

Yeah, thank you, sir.

是的，謝謝你，先生。

David Tarantino, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

大衛‧塔倫提諾 (David Tarantino)，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Maybe just to start out to put a little bit of finer point on the price normalization. Can you give us some color on kind of the incremental $50 million of headwind in the outlook? Just kind of how you would think the breakdown is by the incremental headwinds. Like how much is kind of the import headwind versus incremental PVC and HDPE pressures?

嘿，大家早安。也許只是為了開始對價格正常化提出一些更明確的觀點。您能為我們介紹一下前景中 5000 萬美元增量逆風的情況嗎？就像你認為的崩潰是由不斷增加的逆風造成的。例如進口逆風與 PVC 和 HDPE 增量壓力相比有多大？

Yes. So I'll try to -- and then David can give me more color or whatever or ask more color. But I do think it's probably split. If I had to like cradle it, I'd give a little bit more to metal conduit that Andy just asked about, I mean and that is the -- it's a trend that I mentioned to Andy, that it's not like these guys came out of nowhere but it's just the reflection even in last quarter, the guy, hey, we have to start reacting to this and we are and customers see.

是的。所以我會嘗試 - 然後大衛可以給我更多的顏色或其他什麼或要求更多的顏色。但我確實認為這可能是分裂的。如果我必須喜歡搖籃，我會給安迪剛才問到的金屬導管多一點，我的意思是，這就是我向安迪提到的一種趨勢，這不像這些人出來的那樣沒有任何地方，但這只是上個季度的反映，嘿，我們必須開始對此做出反應，我們和客戶都看到了。

So that's probably first then it's probably PVC and HDPE. Again, I want to emphasize a little bit beyond, is there other products dropping 5% like year-over-year, yes but there's also products going up 5%. So almost a long-term normalization a bunch of our products do move around small sign and wave and when I referenced all those David's comment from last quarter, volumes pick up into next year as a lot of people expect, I'm assuming a stronger market and we actually could get price. But right now, going into the year or even next fiscal year in this quarter, it's tougher than we expected at the moment.

所以這可能是第一個，然後可能是 PVC 和 HDPE。再次，我想強調一點，是否還有其他產品年減 5%，是的，但也有產品上漲 5%。因此，幾乎長期正常化，我們的一堆產品確實圍繞著小標誌和波浪移動，當我引用上個季度大衛的所有評論時，正如很多人預期的那樣，明年的銷量會有所回升，我假設會有更強勁的成長市場，我們實際上可以獲得價格。但現在，進入本季甚至下一個財年，情況比我們目前預期的還要困難。

Okay, great. And then, maybe could you give us an update on the ramp of the solar torque two facility? How has it progressed versus expectations from last quarter? I know it's early but maybe could you frame how you're thinking about this into next year?

好的，太好了。然後，也許您能給我們介紹一下太陽能扭力二號設施的最新情況嗎？與上季的預期相比，進展如何？我知道現在還為時過早，但也許你能談談明年你是如何考慮這個問題的嗎？

Yeah. It's positive. I'll do this and that the challenge first. The only challenge which is not a new thing is we expected to be here pick a time nine months ago. But from the standpoint of and don't hold exactly what quarter and so forth. But we're ramping up at double-digit percent. Our customers are still out there. I think some of the customers, I don't want to speak for them.

是的。這是積極的。我將首先完成這個和那個挑戰。唯一的挑戰（這並不是什麼新鮮事）是我們預計會選擇九個月前的時間來到這裡。但從角度來看，並不確切地認為是哪個季度等等。但我們正在以兩位數的百分比成長。我們的客戶仍然在那裡。我認為有些客戶，我不想為他們說話。

Have a little bit of challenges on getting utility hook-up with solar and stuff like that. But there's enough opportunity out there. We're watching those things but there's enough opportunity for us that we're growing. I'm really proud of the team. I mean, albeit that we should have been here before. But at this stage, we're ramping up in every facet as expected.

在將公用事業與太陽能等連接起來時遇到一些挑戰。但那裡有足夠的機會。我們正在關注這些事情，但我們有足夠的機會來成長。我真的為這個團隊感到自豪。我的意思是，儘管我們以前就應該來過這裡。但現階段，我們正如預期在各方面加大力度。

And then David, to your kind of follow-on question is -- our David CFO referenced as we look into next year, yes, we may have pricing headwinds. But we do have a lot of these growth initiatives. I should add, it's not in the prepared remarks but at least $50 million if not more, incremental EBITDA going into next year.

然後大衛，你的後續問題是——我們的財務長大衛在展望明年時提到，是的，我們可能會遇到定價逆風。但我們確實有許多這樣的成長舉措。我應該補充一點，這不在準備好的發言中，但明年的 EBITDA 增量至少為 5000 萬美元（如果不是更多的話）。

So we are on track out of the team. And obviously, there's still pressure to continue to pick up on that number. But things are going well, if I look at quarter-over-quarter for the last couple of quarters.

所以我們正在脫離團隊的軌道上。顯然，繼續增加這個數字仍然存在壓力。但如果我看看過去幾季的季度環比情況，一切進展順利。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Alex Rygiel, B. Riley.

亞歷克斯·里吉爾，B.萊利。

Yeah, good morning. You referenced a softness in the telecom and utility market. I suspect that was year-over-year but my question is, how are these markets are performing sequentially?

是的，早安。您提到了電信和公用事業市場的疲軟。我懷疑這是同比情況，但我的問題是，這些市場的連續表現如何？

Really flat. Lastly, Alex. I mean, minor little bits of increasing in quotes which I think maybe is a precursor for a better volume kind of going into maybe next quarter, next year. But as we sit here today, I would say not a meaningful sequentially.

真的很平。最後，亞歷克斯.我的意思是，報價略有增加，我認為這可能是明年下個季度、更好的成交量的先兆。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，我想說的是，這並沒有什麼意義。

And then I don't know, Alex. David, just answered for us, that's what's most important but just to triangulate it without obviously, any other companies, there are distributors and so forth. They mentioned the weakness in this market. If you looked at Dodge, they're predicting utility be down 6% this year.

然後我就不知道了，亞歷克斯。大衛，剛剛為我們回答，這是最重要的，但只是對它進行三角測量，顯然沒有其他公司、分銷商等等。他們提到了這個市場的弱點。如果你看看道奇，他們預測今年的效用將下降 6%。

So yeah. I don't think anyone is going to question the long-term secular trend of electrical and heavy utilities and solar and everything else that just right. Right now and as we go into next fiscal year, it's a little bit more challenging than what we probably expected a year ago.

所以是的。我認為沒有人會質疑電力、重型公用事業、太陽能以及其他一切恰到好處的長期趨勢。現在，當我們進入下一個財年時，這比我們一年前的預期更具挑戰性。

And then can you talk a bit about inventory on hand or in the channel and where that stands? Is some of the price weakness due to excessive inventory, is it all sort of demand driven based upon competition in imports?

然後您能否談談現有或通路中的庫存及其現狀？價格疲軟的部分原因是庫存過多，還是進口競爭驅動的需求？

I'll start. Here's where I would say the following. I'll almost right back to the utilities because one of again, well. Two of the top largest customers just talking to customers all the time is with specifically utility, they actually figure, again, lots of things hooking up to the grid, weather putting in trenches that, contractors are backed up and that's what's even slowing down distributors.

我開始吧。在此我要說以下內容。我幾乎馬上就會回到公用事業公司，因為再一次，好吧。兩個最大的客戶一直在與客戶交談，特別是實用程序，他們實際上再次想到，有很多東西連接到電網，天氣因素導致承包商得到支持，這甚至會減慢分銷商的速度。

But overall, my sense is that if you were to look back, let's say, two years or three years ago or whenever normal was before COVID, the actual inventories out there are about in line. Now that said, with pricing pressure, no distributors like the worst thing they can do is buy and devalue stock. They just don't make enough money to have that happen.

但總的來說，我的感覺是，如果你回顧一下，比方說，兩年前或三年前，或者在新冠疫情之前的任何正常時期，實際庫存大約是一致的。話雖如此，在定價壓力下，沒有任何經銷商喜歡他們能做的最糟糕的事情就是購買股票並使其貶值。他們只是沒有賺到足夠的錢來實現這一目標。

So I think distributors in general are trying to wait and even cut below normal levels. So I wouldn't say there is extra inventory but I would say if you could round off a week right now, distributors. And again, we're delivering well but frankly, so is our competition delivering well that you just don't need to have quite the level of stock.

因此，我認為經銷商總體上都在努力等待，甚至將價格降到低於正常水平。所以我不會說有額外的庫存，但我會說經銷商們，如果你現在可以結束一周。再說一遍，我們的交付很好，但坦白說，我們的競爭對手也交付得很好，您只是不需要擁有相當水平的庫存。

And Alex, I would say that going into the quarter, I think everyone felt like their inventory levels were somewhat normal under their sense. But I just feel like their activity going out the door is less than expected and therefore, I do think that they have a little bit more inventory than they did.

亞歷克斯，我想說，進入本季度，我認為每個人都覺得他們的庫存水平在他們看來是正常的。但我只是覺得他們的外出活動少於預期，因此，我確實認為他們的庫存比以前多了一點。

So I think they felt like they were kind of in the middle of that right now and they're probably want to leak a little bit of that out.

所以我認為他們覺得自己現在正處於其中，他們可能想洩露一些資訊。

Helpful. Thank you.

有幫助。謝謝。

Thanks, Alex.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。

Deane Dray, RBC.

迪恩·德雷，加拿大皇家銀行。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I also add my congrats to David. That sounds like a fabulous opportunity. And then congrats to John and James.

謝謝。大家早安。我也向大衛表示祝賀。這聽起來是一個絕佳的機會。然後祝賀約翰和詹姆斯。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Yeah, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

I want to circle back on the situation on the Mexican steel conduit. I guess that constitutes dumping. And just to make sure I heard the number correctly, Bill, you said it now represents 20% of the market. Is that the right number? And if the --

我想回顧一下墨西哥鋼管的情況。我想這已經構成了傾銷。為了確保我聽到的數字正確，比爾，你說它現在代表了 20% 的市場。這個數字正確嗎？如果--

Yeah, it's correct.

是的，這是正確的。

Okay. But if the tariffs were enforced, what would that number be?

好的。但如果關稅得到執行，這個數字會是多少？

So let me go without getting too geeky here because I could go for hours on this one. It's around 20%. Obviously, you can go up from there down, is it Mexico versus a little from some other country, all those other factors.

所以讓我先別在這裡變得太極客了，因為我可以在這個問題上花上幾個小時。大約是20%。顯然，你可以從那裡往上走，是墨西哥還是其他國家的一點，以及所有其他因素。

In two minutes or less, what happened when NAFTA switched to USMC, they took down the 25% tariff that was part of NAFTA and they agreed to not have award any surge in occurring. And over since that was done in -- the baseline 2015 to 2017, we're up around and again, depends on what year and things fold since then. So it's grown 50% a year but it's compounded to the point of being significant.

在兩分鐘或更短的時間內，當北美自由貿易協定轉向美國海軍陸戰隊時，他們取消了北美自由貿易協定一部分的 25% 關稅，並同意不會出現任何激增的情況。自從2015年到2017年的基線完成以來，我們一次又一次地上升，這取決於從那時起的年份和情況。所以它每年增長 50%，但複合程度已經達到了相當可觀的地步。

So if you go forward, Deane and say that hypothetically, the current administration or a new or a different administration was to implement back to what USMCA requires already written into contracts or to put a tariff in, that number could drop substantially. And that's why it's hard to gauge next year with pricing. We don't have that built into our -- where we did mention the $650 million. So again, that's where in November, we'll have a little bit more clear buoyancy on administration, interest rates and things like that, it's a little tougher to predict a forecast right now.

因此，如果迪恩繼續假設，現任政府或新的或不同的政府將執行已寫入合約的 USMCA 要求或徵收關稅，那麼這個數字可能會大幅下降。這就是為什麼很難透過定價來衡量明年的原因。我們沒有將其納入我們的計劃中——我們確實提到了 6.5 億美元。因此，在 11 月份，我們將在行政、利率和類似問題上有更明顯的樂觀情緒，但現在預測會有點困難。

Got it. But still, I know you've got a lot of moving parts between PVC and the steel situation, the previous expectation was price normalization might be reached towards the end of calendar '24 that now feels like that's being pushed out based upon what you know today, where do you see the best case price normalization that would happen? Look, I know it's a fair question, Mexico. From what you know today, where would normalization happen?

知道了。但是，我知道 PVC 和鋼鐵之間存在很多變化，之前的預期是價格正常化可能會在 24 日曆年末實現，但現在感覺根據您所知，這一點正在被推遲今天，您認為價格正常化的最佳情況會發生在哪裡？聽著，我知道這是一個公平的問題，墨西哥。據您今天所知，正常化會在哪裡發生？

Here's how I would answer, Deane, with the first, the caveat but I'll get to your question, is I and David have mentioned for years now on calls. We live in a world with two weeks or less backlog and pricing changes every day. But with the fine print there of a forecast, one of the comments I made in my prepared remarks is that we think next year would be the baseline.

迪恩，我的回答是這樣的，首先是警告，但我會回答你的問題，我和大衛多年來在電話中已經提到過。我們生活在一個積壓兩週或更少的世界，而且每天的價格都會改變。但隨著預測的細則，我在準備好的發言中發表的評論之一是，我們認為明年將是基準。

So to say, could some pricing drag on up, down, maybe. But I think as you look forward and say organic growth and of the things we didn't call out as much as productivity that's actually strong, higher than budget, even with slightly more inflation. We have strong net productivity and you look at our growth initiatives that will -- the gentleman earlier, David asked like about Hobart that are kicking in place in our global mega projects that I think next year is the baseline.

也就是說，某些定價可能會上漲或下跌。但我認為，當你展望未來並談到有機成長以及我們沒有提到的生產力時，生產力實際上很強勁，高於預算，即使通膨略有上升。我們擁有強大的淨生產力，你看看我們的成長計劃，大衛先生早些時候問過有關霍巴特的問題，這些計劃正在我們的全球大型項目中啟動，我認為明年是基線。

So I'm not going to put in pricing but I think it will become de minimis enough that the other things will drive ahead and we get back on track of growing earnings which obviously will be a strong reflection point for our stock that goes with every other fundamental of our company.

因此，我不打算定價，但我認為這將變得足夠微不足道，其他事情將繼續向前發展，我們將回到盈利增長的軌道，這顯然將成為我們股票的一個強烈反映點，每個股票都會出現這種情況。

All right. I appreciate that. And just last question. What -- do you have any comments on some of the noise we're hearing about pricing in PVC? I hate to use that word collusion but really trying to figure out is this -- can this be substantiated, maybe if you could just start with some comments there.

好的。我很欣賞這一點。最後一個問題。您對我們聽到的有關 PVC 定價的一些噪音有何評論？我討厭使用勾結這個詞，但真正想弄清楚的是——這是否可以得到證實，也許你可以從那裡開始一些評論。

Yeah. So I'm going to tell you, first is if you saw some of this stuff going around, it's from a short seller says they're a short seller. Indeed, to your question you've asked over the decade, I am so proud of our internal pricing mechanisms weekly call, scatter diagrams, apps that tell us pricing that, we drive our business and I'm going to claim that report is unsubstantiated from the conclusions it tries to make.

是的。所以我要告訴你，首先，如果你看到一些這樣的東西在流傳，那是來自賣空者說他們是賣空者。事實上，對於您在過去十年中提出的問題，我對我們的內部定價機制感到非常自豪，每週電話會議、散點圖、告訴我們定價的應用程序，我們推動我們的業務，我要聲稱該報告是未經證實的從它試圖得出的結論來看。

We would agree. Thank you.

我們會同意的。謝謝。

Chris Moore, CJS Securities.

克里斯摩爾，CJS 證券。

Hey, good morning. Congratulations as well to David. Most have been answered but maybe just one more on pricing. Certainly, seems like on a relative basis since the pandemic began pricing on PVC has increased more than any other product. Obviously, it's come down significantly. When you look at relative price risk for fiscal '25, is it still fair to think that PVC pricing still represents kind of the biggest pricing risk moving forward?

嘿，早安。也祝賀大衛。大多數問題已經得到解答，但也許只有一個關於定價的問題。當然，自大流行開始以來，相對而言，PVC 的定價漲幅似乎比其他產品都要高。顯然，它已經大幅下降。當您考慮 25 財年的相對價格風險時，認為 PVC 定價仍代表未來最大的定價風險是否仍然公平？

Yeah. I'll give you a little bit more color but the answer is yes, Chris. And again, if you go back to COVID time, with supply demand constraints which drives our business, this has been a constant theme since we -- Atkore existed.

是的。我會給你更多的色彩，但答案是肯定的，克里斯。再說一遍，如果你回到新冠疫情時代，供應需求的限制推動了我們的業務，這一直是我們 Atkore 存在以來的一個不變主題。

All of our products that I can think of all went up in margin. So did both our competitors and other industries, maybe not as much. But then with PVC, if you go back around COVID, you also had a hurricane hit and that my timing could be a little off here but four or six months later, you had the freeze in Texas that we just had an abnormal thing that therefore allowed more opportunity for someone to say, hey, drop your price pick it 3%, 5%, try to fill my factory, then if you're up 10%, there isn't as much opportunity for somebody to try to drop their price. So a long way to reason. That's the dramatic thing that's happened in PVC.

我能想到的所有產品的利潤率都上升了。我們的競爭對手和其他行業也是如此，但也許沒有那麼多。但是對於聚氯乙烯，如果你回到新冠病毒周圍，你也遇到了颶風，我的時間可能有點偏離，但四六個月後，你在德克薩斯州遇到了凍結，我們只是發生了異常的事情，因此給某人更多的機會說，嘿，降價，選擇 3%、5%，嘗試填滿我的工廠，然後，如果你上漲 10%，那麼有人嘗試降價的機會就沒有那麼多了價格。所以推理還有很長的路要走。這就是 PVC 中發生的戲劇性的事情。

But yes, I do think it's PVC and then we'll see how conduit plays out. But at least in this quarter, I think we appropriately scope that. And to Deane's earlier question or the words in Deane's mouth, administration's focus on the future and just enforcing a contract that's already been there that, quite frankly, some of our very large corporate competitor CEOs have called out in their earnings.

但是，是的，我確實認為它是 PVC，然後我們將看看導管如何發揮作用。但至少在本季度，我認為我們適當地確定了範圍。對於迪恩之前的問題或迪恩口中的話，政府的重點是未來，只是執行已經存在的合同，坦率地說，我們的一些非常大的公司競爭對手的首席執行官已經在他們的收益中呼籲。

And Chris, one other thing to remember during that COVID times, not only was there a supply chain disruption but there was a very strong demand. For me, I think that's -- we don't talk enough about the end aspect of pricing. If we had that type of demand right now, I don't think we'd be talking about pricing like we're talking about today. So I think in that regard, the reason why we would say PVC for next year is probably just more uncertainty around the PVC market for next year as it goes and it affects pricing.

克里斯，在新冠疫情期間需要記住的另一件事是，不僅供應鏈中斷，而且需求非常強勁。對我來說，我認為我們對定價的最終方面討論得還不夠。如果我們現在有這種需求，我認為我們不會像今天這樣談論定價。因此，我認為在這方面，我們之所以說明年的 PVC 可能只是明年 PVC 市場的不確定性更大，因為它會影響定價。

Yes, David and I don't have the number in front of me but just to echo that. And again, everybody, these are public stuff but to go single-family homes, it's an average market if you look at some of the information but no sub developments are being built. And I'm winning a number here but you get back to 1.2 million a year, starts versus 900,000 starts. All this stuff, people unfortunately look at how are they doing on volume, what did they estimate, who are their bosses and stuff above them.

是的，大衛和我面前沒有電話號碼，只是為了呼應這一點。再說一次，大家，這些都是公共物品，但對於單戶住宅來說，如果你查看一些信息，但沒有正在建設的子開發項目，這是一個平均市場。我在這裡贏得了一個數字，但你每年會回到 120 萬個首發，而不是 900,000 個首發。不幸的是，所有這些東西，人們都會關注他們在數量上的表現如何，他們的估計是什麼，誰是他們的老闆以及他們之上的人。

And you start getting the Fed dropping rates, the residential picking up some ifs there that why we didn't pay these into a forecast for next year. But pricing could easily go up. But at this stage, I want to still stay around what we just said at the [$650] stage.

你開始看到聯準會降息，住宅市場出現了一些假設，這就是為什麼我們沒有將這些納入明年的預測。但價格很容易上漲。但在這個階段，我想仍然停留在我們剛才所說的[650 美元]階段。

And Chris, one other aspect in Bill referenced this a little bit as opening comments. So when you look at the market right now, kind of the overall construction market, it is made up of large projects becoming a larger piece of the overall activity. And when that happens, two things happen.

克里斯，比爾的另一方面在開場評論中提到了這一點。因此，當你看看現在的市場時，整個建築市場，它是由大型專案組成，成為整體活動的較大組成部分。當這種情況發生時，會發生兩件事。

One, typically, the larger projects are a little bit more price competitive to begin with. But when there's not all these other opportunities kind of broad construction activity it gives you less opportunity to do your pricing by location and so on and so forth. So I think that element right now, we're feeling that in Q3 and going into Q4.

其一，通常情況下，較大的專案一開始的價格更具競爭力。但是，當沒有所有這些其他機會進行廣泛的建築活動時，您就很少有機會按位置等進行定價。所以我認為現在我們在第三季和第四季感受到了這一點。

Extremely helpful, guys. Maybe just a last one for me. So $650 million is obviously a target could come up could come down. Any kind of EBITDA margin range that accompanies that.

非常有幫助，夥計們。也許對我來說只是最後一次。因此，6.5 億美元顯然是一個可上可下的目標。任何與之相伴的 EBITDA 利潤率範圍。

David, do you want to --

大衛，你想嗎--

I think basically the way that we try to approach the $650 million is we feel like that's kind of the minimum base, Chris, going into next year. So I think that's our viewpoint as we sit right now. I do believe that going into November, we'll know a lot more. The team here will do a lot more going into November with the uncertainties exist right now.

我認為基本上我們試圖接近 6.5 億美元的方式是我們覺得這是進入明年的最低基數，克里斯。所以我認為這就是我們現在的觀點。我相信進入十一月，我們會知道更多。由於目前存在不確定性，這裡的團隊將在 11 月做更多的事情。

Yeah. But I think to the margin thing, we focus more on year-over-year and quarter collections that we answered earlier versus trying to do a margin depending on. Obviously, margins somewhat depend on as could help us on what our revenue is. And things like steel costs.

是的。但我認為，就利潤而言，我們更關注我們之前回答過的同比和季度收集，而不是嘗試根據利潤進行調整。顯然，利潤率在某種程度上取決於我們的收入。還有鋼鐵之類的成本。

Again, I want to emphasize cost is the least factor of things of market demand, competitor actions and our value prop but like steel costs are dropping, so one could think our revenue could be down if we make even the same price per ton. But again, Chris, the specifics will get into --

再次，我想強調成本是市場需求、競爭對手行為和我們的價值支柱中最不重要的因素，但就像鋼鐵成本正在下降一樣，所以人們可能會認為，如果我們每噸的價格相同，我們的收入可能會下降。但克里斯，具體細節將進入--

Broadly speaking, not too far out.

從廣義上講，並不算太遠。

No, I'm not -- correct?

不，我不是——對嗎？

I appreciate the answer.

我很欣賞你的回答。

I mean one thing we couldn't -- I mean S&I is starting to get up into that mid-teens again which I think is certainly helpful also for the enterprise.

我的意思是有一件事我們不能——我的意思是 S&I 又開始回到十幾歲左右，我認為這對企業來說肯定也有幫助。

Got it. I Appreciate it. I will leave it there.

知道了。我很欣賞它。我會把它留在那裡。

Thank you, Chris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

Chris Dankert, Loop Capital.

克里斯·丹克特，Loop Capital。

Hey, thank you. Just again, congratulations, David and thanks for all your help here. I guess, first off and sorry for specifics but I guess as far as the Hobart ramp goes, any sense that you can give us for kind of what the utilization rate is today? Obviously, you said you were hoping to get there sooner but are we at 50% utilization today and that continues to ramp fully into '25?

嘿，謝謝你。再次恭喜你，大衛，感謝你在這裡提供的所有幫助。我想，首先對具體細節感到抱歉，但我想就霍巴特坡道而言，您能給我們提供一下今天的利用率嗎？顯然，您說過您希望早點達到目標，但我們今天的利用率是否達到 50%，並且在 25 年繼續全面提升？

Yeah. No, it's higher than that, Chris, without getting into a precise number. And then you got two things going. So definitely north of 50%. But plus remind some we give you a wide range here but I like to use the 70%. So yes but I don't want to lock because Chris, there's a little bit with almost like my answer to the Mexico with Deane and so forth is. We get in this thing called OEE.

是的。不，克里斯，這個數字比這個還要高，但我沒有透露具體的數字。然後有兩件事發生。所以絕對超過 50%。但也要提醒一些人，我們在這裡為您提供了一個廣泛的範圍，但我喜歡使用 70%。所以是的，但我不想鎖定，因為克里斯，有一點幾乎就像我對墨西哥迪恩的回答等等。我們進入了稱為 OEE 的領域。

Do you account the fact that preventive maintenance in that number? Do you the account that we're not working, just starting a third shift but we're not working four shifts year round on the clock weekends, submitted how quick we change over and so forth. So we're ramping up. It's definitely above your 50% number. But as we go into next year, there's still growth, again, not locking numbers but could we grow 20%, 30%? And the answer is absolutely, that volume.

您是否考慮了預防性維護這一數字？您是否知道我們沒有工作，剛開始第三班制，但我們不是在周末全年四班制工作，提交了我們換班的速度等等。所以我們正在加速。這絕對高於你的 50% 數字。但當我們進入明年時，仍然會成長，但不會鎖定數字，但我們能成長 20%、30% 嗎？答案是絕對的，就是那個體積。

Got it. That's extremely helpful. And then just finally for me, I guess, any update on kind of [be] program funding timing? I know New York and California have finally got some stuff stood up. Any anecdotal commentary there or kind of how that could impact HDPE volumes into next year?

知道了。這非常有幫助。最後對我來說，我想，關於專案資助時間的任何更新嗎？我知道紐約和加州終於有了一些東西。有什麼軼事評論嗎？

Yeah. So great question, Chris. All the questions are great but I can't imagine if we would have went through the sell-side questions to not hit that. I think cautious optimism. I'm going to put it -- which we've always said in '25, I'm going to put it -- because it all gets on when -- what's the ramp that you call it success.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，克里斯。所有的問題都很好，但我無法想像我們是否會透過賣方問題來解決這個問題。我認為謹慎樂觀。我要這麼說——我們在 25 年總是這麼說，我要這麼說——因為一切都會發生——你稱之為成功的坡道是什麼。

I'm going to put it more into calendar '25 than fiscal '25. But to your point, two states have approved it, other states are closed, whether it's the people making the fiber optic or one of our very large competitors in that segment are all saying the end of this calendar year and so forth. So I think we've been cautiously optimistic in our guide. We're going to expect to see profit pickups from next year. But I will say, it's definitely going to be a ramp through '25 and '26.

我將把它更多地放在 25 年曆中，而不是 25 財年中。但就你而言，兩個州已經批准了它，其他州已經關閉，無論是製造光纖的人還是我們在該領域的一個非常大的競爭對手之一都在說今年年底等等。所以我認為我們在指南中一直持謹慎樂觀的態度。我們預計明年利潤將會回升。但我要說的是，這肯定會是 25 年和 26 年的一個斜坡。

Got it. Thanks so much for the color.

知道了。非常感謝你的顏色。

Yeah, thank you, Chris.

是的，謝謝你，克里斯。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Bill Waltz for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回給比爾·沃爾茲（Bill Waltz）發表結束語。

We shared today our perspective on several challenges that are currently impacting us and that may continue to impact us in the mid-term. Despite these challenges, we have conviction in our people, our strategy and our processes which are the three fundamentals of our business system and enable us to remain resilient and focused on the future. With that, thank you for your support and interest in our company. We look forward to speaking with you during the fourth quarter call in November. This concludes the call for today.

今天，我們分享了對當前影響我們並可能在中期繼續影響我們的幾個挑戰的看法。儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們對我們的員工、我們的策略和我們的流程充滿信心，它們是我們業務系統的三大基礎，使我們能夠保持彈性並專注於未來。在此，感謝您對我們公司的支持與關注。我們期待在 11 月的第四季度電話會議上與您交談。今天的電話會議到此結束。

This concludes this conference call. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。