ATI Inc. (ATI) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the ATI second quarter 2026 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand the conference over to Rob Rengel, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    感謝各位加入,歡迎參加 ATI 2026 年第二季業績電話會議。(接線員指示) 現在我將把會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Rob Rengel。請開始。

  • Rob Rengel - Vice President - Investor Contact

    Rob Rengel - Vice President - Investor Contact

  • Good morning, and welcome to ATI's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. I'm excited to step into this role, and I want to begin by recognizing Dave Weston and the significant contributions he made to ATI before his retirement. Today's discussion is being webcast at atimaterials.com. Joining me are Kim Fields, Board Chair, President and CEO; and Rob Foster, Senior Vice President and CFO.

    各位早安,歡迎參加 ATI 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。我很高興接任這個職務,並想先表彰 Dave Weston 在退休前對 ATI 所做出的重大貢獻。今天的討論將於 atimaterials.com 進行網路直播。與我一同出席的有董事會主席、總裁暨執行長 Kim Fields,以及資深副總裁暨財務長 Rob Foster。

  • Before starting our prepared remarks, I would like to draw your attention to the supplemental presentation that accompanies this call. Those slides provide additional color and details on our results, capabilities and outlook and can also be found on our website.

    在開始我們預先準備的發言之前,我想請各位注意本次電話會議隨附的補充簡報。這些投影片提供了我們業績、能力與展望的更多背景與細節,也可在我們的網站上找到。

  • As a reminder, all forward-looking statements are subject to various assumptions and caveats. These are noted in the earnings release and in the accompanying presentation.

    提醒各位,所有前瞻性陳述均受各種假設與保留條款所限制。相關內容已在財報新聞稿及隨附簡報中註明。

  • After our prepared remarks, we'll open the line for questions. Now I'll turn the call over to Kim.

    在我們的準備發言結束後,我們將開放提問。現在我把電話交給 Kim。

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Rob, and welcome to the team, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Turning to Slide 3. ATI delivered another strong quarter, demonstrating the increasing earnings power of our business. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $284 million, $29 million above the high end of our prior guidance.

    謝謝你,Rob,歡迎加入團隊,也向各位道早安。感謝各位參與。請看投影片 3。ATI 再次交出強勁的一季,展現我們業務日益提升的獲利能力。第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.84 億美元,較我們先前指引上緣高出 2,900 萬美元。

  • Excluding a $10 million asset sale gain, underlying performance still exceeded the high end of our guidance by $19 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 37% year-over-year, making this ATI's strongest quarterly EBITDA performance since 2007.

    若排除 1,000 萬美元的資產出售利益,基礎表現仍較指引上緣高出 1,900 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 年增 37%,為 ATI 自 2007 年以來最強的單季 EBITDA 表現。

  • Second quarter adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 440 basis points year-over-year to 22.6%, reflecting stronger commercial terms, favorable mix, disciplined execution and operational improvements through Elevation.

    第二季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率年增 440 個基點至 22.6%,反映更佳的商業條款、有利的產品組合、嚴謹的執行,以及透過 Elevation 推動的營運改善。

  • Revenue this quarter increased 11% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, an annualized run rate of more than $5 billion. That expanding revenue was supported by another record backlog of $4.4 billion, up 18% from a year ago and 7% sequentially. Importantly, that backlog increasingly reflects long-term agreements, sole-source positions and strategic programs that provide meaningful multiyear visibility into future shipments and earnings.

    本季營收年增 11% 至 13 億美元,年化運行率超過 50 億美元。營收擴張由另一個創紀錄的在手訂單 44 億美元所支撐,較一年前增加 18%,較前一季增加 7%。重要的是,這些在手訂單愈來愈多反映長期協議、單一來源供應地位與策略性專案,為未來出貨與獲利提供具意義的多年能見度。

  • Adjusted free cash flow in the quarter was $69 million, bringing first half free cash flow to $143 million, an improvement of $193 million versus the first half of last year.

    本季調整後自由現金流為 6,900 萬美元,使上半年自由現金流達 1.43 億美元,較去年上半年改善 1.93 億美元。

  • Cash generation will accelerate meaningfully in the second half, putting us on track to generate positive free cash flow in every quarter of 2026. Our second quarter performance was led by our AA&S segment, and it's one of the most important stories from the quarter.

    下半年現金創造將明顯加速,使我們有望在 2026 年每一季都產生正的自由現金流。第二季表現由我們的 AA&S 事業部帶動,這也是本季最重要的故事之一。

  • Over the last several years, we've transformed AA&S. What was once viewed as a more cyclical, lower-margin business has become a second durable earnings engine for ATI. We've improved the portfolio, strengthened our commercial discipline and focused our investments where ATI's differentiated capabilities create the greatest value.

    過去幾年,我們已改造 AA&S。過去被視為較具循環性、低利潤率的業務,如今已成為 ATI 第二個具韌性的獲利引擎。我們改善了產品組合、強化商業紀律,並將投資聚焦在 ATI 具差異化能力、能創造最大價值的領域。

  • The result is a fundamentally different business. Excluding the asset sale gain, AA&S generated an underlying EBITDA margin of approximately 22% compared with 14% a year ago. That's not simply the result of stronger markets. It's the result of better mix, better pricing and better execution.

    結果是一個本質上截然不同的業務。若排除資產出售利益,AA&S 的基礎 EBITDA 利潤率約為 22%,高於一年前的 14%。這不僅僅是市場更強所致。而是更佳的產品組合、更佳的定價與更佳的執行所帶來的成果。

  • We built the transformation on 3 key priorities. First, we've optimized the portfolio, shifting AA&S toward higher-value aerospace, defense and specialty energy applications, while at the same time, exiting lower-value products.

    我們以 3 項關鍵優先事項打造這項轉型。第一,我們已優化產品組合,將 AA&S 轉向更高價值的航太、國防與特殊能源應用,同時退出較低價值的產品。

  • Today, aerospace and defense accounts for approximately 44% of AA&S revenue, more than double their share 5 years ago. Second, we've leveraged ATI's unique technical capabilities in high-purity hafnium and zirconium.

    目前,航太與國防約占 AA&S 營收的 44%,較 5 年前的占比增加一倍以上。第二,我們運用 ATI 在高純度鉿與鋯方面的獨特技術能力。

  • ATI is 1 of 3 qualified producers in the Western world capable of manufacturing these materials to the purity standards required for aerospace and nuclear energy applications. With China limiting exports to these markets, our capabilities have become even more valuable.

    ATI 是西方世界 3 家合格生產商之一,能夠將這些材料製造成符合航太與核能應用所需純度標準的產品。在中國限制對這些市場的出口之際,我們的能力變得更具價值。

  • And third, we've translated that scarcity into stronger commercial performance. Improved pricing for high-purity hafnium and zirconium benefits our defense and specialty energy businesses and also flows through to our jet engine alloy materials, where hafnium and zirconium are critical alloy additions.

    第三,我們將這種稀缺性轉化為更強的商業表現。高純度鉿與鋯的定價改善,有利於我們的國防與特殊能源業務,並且也傳導至我們的噴射引擎合金材料,因為鉿與鋯是關鍵的合金添加元素。

  • Combined with better product mix and disciplined commercial execution, that has materially increased the earnings power of AA&S.

    再加上更佳的產品組合與嚴謹的商業執行,已實質提升 AA&S 的獲利能力。

  • Now let me be equally clear about HPMC. Nothing about this quarter changes our long-term strategy. HPMC remains ATI's largest long-term growth platform and the foundation of our aerospace strategy. For HPMC, performance in the quarter was within our expectations, although qualification timing at both our new facility in Mexico and our new titanium electron-beam furnace or EB2, shifted some shipments into future periods. The important point is that our confidence in HPMC's growth trajectory remains intact.

    現在我也要同樣清楚地談 HPMC。本季沒有任何事情改變我們的長期策略。HPMC 仍是 ATI 最大的長期成長平台,也是我們航太策略的基礎。就 HPMC 而言,本季表現符合我們的預期,儘管墨西哥新廠與新鈦電子束熔爐(EB2)的認證時程,使部分出貨遞延至未來期間。重點是,我們對 HPMC 的成長軌跡仍然充滿信心。

  • Commercial terms and operational productivity are improving, and we're systemically increasing the productive output of the manufacturing system through Elevation and targeted investments. Those improvements support sequentially stronger performance through the second half and position HPMC for additional growth into 2027.

    商業條款與營運生產力正在改善,我們也透過 Elevation 與精準投資,系統性地提升製造系統的有效產出。這些改善將支撐下半年逐季走強的表現,並使 HPMC 在 2027 年持續具備進一步成長的定位。

  • Taken together, these results show a stronger, more balanced ATI. We are not benefiting from just one favorable market or one strong quarter. We now have 2 businesses capable of generating durable earnings growth supported by differentiated products, stronger commercial performance, operational excellence and a record backlog that provides meaningful multiyear visibility into the future.

    綜合來看,這些結果顯示 ATI 更強健、也更均衡。我們受惠的不只是單一有利市場或單一強勁季度。我們現在擁有兩個能夠帶來具韌性獲利成長的業務,並由差異化產品、更強的商業表現、卓越營運,以及提供具意義多年能見度的創紀錄在手訂單所支撐。

  • Turning to Slide 4. Based on our first half performance and improved visibility into the balance of the year, today, we are meaningfully raising our full year outlook across every key financial metric.

    請看投影片 4。基於上半年表現以及對今年剩餘期間能見度的提升,我們今天將在每一項關鍵財務指標上,大幅上調全年展望。

  • As a result, our updated outlook now includes an adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $1.160 billion, representing 35% year-over-year growth, and adjusted EPS midpoint of $5.04, an increase of 56% year-over-year and an adjusted free cash flow midpoint of $575 million, an increase of 51% year-over-year.

    因此,我們更新後的展望包括:調整後 EBITDA 中位數為 11.60 億美元,代表年增 35%;調整後 EPS 中位數為 5.04 美元,年增 56%;以及調整後自由現金流中位數為 5.75 億美元,年增 51%。

  • Importantly, these increases reflect a sustainable step change in AA&S performance and our ongoing confidence in the HPMC ramp.

    重要的是,這些上調反映 AA&S 表現的可持續性躍升,以及我們對 HPMC 產能爬坡的持續信心。

  • Turning to Slide 5. ATI's operating model is helping convert strong demand, improved commercial terms and targeted investments into higher earnings, margins and cash flow. Elevation is the foundation of that operating system. Let me give you some insight into how we operate.

    請看投影片 5。ATI 的營運模式正協助我們把強勁需求、改善的商業條款與精準投資,轉化為更高的獲利、利潤率與現金流。Elevation 是該營運系統的基礎。我來分享一些我們如何運作的洞見。

  • First, we increase the productivity of the assets we own. Second, we make targeted investments where ATI has differentiated technology, committed customer demand and the highest returns. And third, we embed our operating system to make those improvements repeatable across the enterprise. That combination is increasing ATI's earning power, strengthening cash generation and creating long-term shareholder value.

    首先,我們提升我們所擁有資產的生產力。第二,我們在ATI具備差異化技術、客戶需求承諾且回報最高的領域進行精準投資。第三,我們嵌入我們的營運系統,使這些改善能在全企業範圍內可重複、可複製地推行。這樣的組合正在提升ATI的獲利能力、強化現金創造,並創造長期股東價值。

  • Most importantly, we're seeing measurable results through Elevation. We've increased year-over-year throughput by 30% in ultrasonic inspection, 15% in isothermal forgings and 15% in primary nickel melt. Those aren't isolated improvements.

    最重要的是,我們正透過Elevation看到可衡量的成果。我們在超音波檢測的年對年吞吐量提升30%,在等溫鍛造提升15%,在一次鎳熔煉提升15%。這些並非孤立的改善。

  • When combined with our targeted capacity investments, we'll realize higher productive output from our manufacturing network. Every major investment we're making supports existing customer demand and expands ATI's differentiated capabilities.

    結合我們的精準產能投資後,我們將從製造網路中實現更高的有效產出。我們所進行的每一項重大投資,都在支援既有客戶需求,並擴大ATI的差異化能力。

  • Moving to Slide 6. Let me remind you about our capacity investments. Our new Chihuahua, Mexico facility supports next-generation aerospace engine testing and inspection, and our EB2 furnace expands premium quality titanium capability and capacity.

    接著看第6頁投影片。我提醒各位我們的產能投資。我們在墨西哥奇瓦瓦的新廠支援下一代航太引擎測試與檢測,而我們的EB2爐則擴增高品質鈦材的能力與產能。

  • Our nickel re-melt expansion remains on schedule with our new VIM furnace coming online by the end of 2027. Together, these investments are targeted to increase nickel capacity by approximately 15% to 20% by early 2028 compared with year-end 2025.

    我們的鎳再熔煉擴產仍按計畫推進,新的VIM爐預計於2027年底上線。合計而言,這些投資目標是在2028年初相較於2025年底,將鎳產能提高約15%至20%。

  • Across these combined nickel investments, we will deliver approximately $350 million of incremental annual revenue by 2028. The important point is that these investments, combined with Elevation, progressively increase the productive output of the manufacturing system.

    在這些合併的鎳相關投資下,我們將於2028年前帶來約3.5億美元的年度增量營收。重點在於,這些投資結合Elevation,將逐步提升整個製造系統的有效產出。

  • Turning to Slide 7. Across all of our end markets, we're seeing the same underlying dynamics. Customers have increasing need for qualified capacity, differentiated technology and certainty of supply. Those are areas where ATI has built durable competitive advantages through proprietary materials, unique manufacturing capabilities and decades-long customer qualifications.

    接著看第7頁投影片。在我們所有終端市場中,我們看到相同的底層動態。客戶對合格產能、差異化技術與供應確定性的需求日益增加。這些正是ATI透過專有材料、獨特製造能力以及數十年的客戶認證所建立的持久競爭優勢所在。

  • That competitive position supports stronger commercial terms, long-term agreements and attractive growth opportunities across our portfolio.

    這樣的競爭地位支撐更強的商業條款、長期協議,以及我們產品組合中具吸引力的成長機會。

  • Jet engines remains ATI's largest and most important growth market. Revenue increased 13% year-over-year and 8% sequentially, reflecting ongoing strength across both OEM production and aftermarket.

    噴射引擎仍是ATI最大且最重要的成長市場。營收年對年成長13%、季對季成長8%,反映OEM生產與售後市場皆持續強勁。

  • The industry is transitioning toward next-generation engine platforms, and ATI is exceptionally well positioned to benefit. Our content on these engines is more than double that of legacy platforms, reflecting our differentiated materials in the hottest, most demanding section of the engine.

    產業正轉向下一代引擎平台,而ATI具備極佳的受益位置。我們在這些引擎上的供應內容(content)是傳統平台的兩倍以上,反映我們在引擎最熱、要求最高的區段提供差異化材料。

  • Industry forecasts project next-generation engines will grow from about 35% today to over 50% of the installed fleet by 2030. Currently, we support every major next-generation commercial engine platform and produce 6 of the 7 most advanced nickel-based super alloys, including 5 where we are the sole source supplier.

    產業預測顯示,下一代引擎將從目前約35%成長至2030年裝機機隊的50%以上。目前我們支援所有主要的下一代商用引擎平台,並生產7種最先進鎳基超合金中的6種,其中5種我們是唯一來源供應商。

  • That differentiation translates into stronger pricing, richer product mix and long-term growth opportunities. Market conditions are developing largely as we anticipated. We continue to see high teens jet engine revenue growth for the full year.

    這種差異化帶來更強的定價能力、更優的產品組合,以及長期成長機會。市場狀況的發展大致符合我們的預期。我們仍預期全年噴射引擎營收將維持高十位數(high teens)成長。

  • In airframe, supply chain inventories have largely normalized and customer order patterns are now aligning with announced OEM build rates.

    在機身(airframe)方面,供應鏈庫存已大致正常化,客戶下單模式也正與已公布的OEM增產率一致。

  • Our planned production for the balance of the year is supported by firm customer orders. Landing gear alloys remain our strongest airframe product category, while plate demand is improving. As a result, we continue to see mid- to high single-digit full year airframe revenue growth weighted towards the second half.

    我們今年剩餘期間的計畫產量有確定的客戶訂單支撐。起落架合金仍是我們最強的機身產品類別,而板材需求正在改善。因此,我們仍預期全年機身營收將呈現中到高個位數成長,且成長將偏重於下半年。

  • Defense delivered another outstanding quarter as one of our fastest-growing markets. Revenue increased 36% year-over-year, reaching an all-time high as demand accelerated across naval nuclear, missile and missile defense applications.

    國防業務再度交出亮眼的一季,為我們成長最快的市場之一。營收年對年成長36%,在海軍核能、飛彈與飛彈防禦應用需求加速下,創下歷史新高。

  • Our recently announced naval nuclear renewal extends through 2030 with improved pricing and product mix. It more than doubles annual revenue compared to the prior contract. We're also seeing strength build across titanium, nickel and niobium products, supporting strategic missile platforms, including Tomahawk, THAAD and PAC-3. We've already begun receiving orders in support of the Tomahawk program.

    我們近期宣布的海軍核能續約合約延長至2030年,並改善定價與產品組合。相較於先前合約,其年度營收增加逾一倍。我們也看到鈦、鎳與鈮產品的動能增強,支援包括戰斧(Tomahawk)、THAAD與PAC-3在內的策略性飛彈平台。我們已開始收到支援戰斧計畫的訂單。

  • As a result, we've increased our expectation for full year defense growth to the high teens, reflecting growing momentum across the portfolio. Specialty Energy declined in the quarter as we prioritize production toward defense orders with more immediate delivery requirements.

    因此,我們將全年國防成長預期上調至高十位數(high teens),反映整體產品組合動能持續增強。本季Specialty Energy下滑,因我們優先將產能配置至交期更迫切的國防訂單。

  • That mix will rebalance in the second half, supported by nuclear shipments and durable industrial gas turbine demand. We continue to see mid-teens Specialty Energy revenue growth for the full year. In closing, we're building the ATI of the next decade, a stronger company with durable demand, better execution, expanding margins and greater cash generation.

    在核能出貨與穩健的工業燃氣渦輪需求支撐下,這樣的產品組合將於下半年重新平衡。我們仍預期全年Specialty Energy營收將呈現中十位數(mid-teens)成長。最後,我們正在打造未來十年的ATI——一家更強健的公司,具備持久需求、更佳執行力、擴張中的利潤率與更強的現金創造能力。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Rob.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給Rob。

  • James Robert Foster - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Robert Foster - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Thanks, Kim. I'll start with the second quarter performance, explain the different profiles of HPMC and AA&S and close with the supporting details for our updated guidance.

    謝謝,Kim。我將先從第二季表現談起,說明HPMC與AA&S不同的業務輪廓,最後補充我們更新後財測指引的支撐細節。

  • As shown on Slide 8, we delivered strong overall results. Adjusted EBITDA and EPS exceeded the high end of our guidance, while we expanded our consolidated margins and generated strong cash flow. These results demonstrate the strength of ATI's differentiated portfolio and the earnings power of our business model.

    如第8頁投影片所示,我們交出整體強勁的成果。調整後EBITDA與EPS均超越指引區間上緣,同時我們擴大合併利潤率並創造強勁現金流。這些結果展現ATI差異化產品組合的實力,以及我們商業模式的獲利能力。

  • Second quarter revenue was $1.3 billion, up 11% year-over-year, driven by 13% growth in aerospace and defense. Within that market segment, jet engine sales increased by 13%, reflecting increasing strength in high-temperature nickel alloys and favorable pricing.

    第二季營收為13億美元,年對年成長11%,主要由航太與國防成長13%所帶動。在該市場區隔中,噴射引擎銷售成長13%,反映高溫鎳合金需求走強以及有利的定價。

  • Airframe revenue declined slightly, consistent with our expectations with growth accelerating in the second half of the year. Defense-related revenue grew by 36% compared with the prior year, driven by robust demand and meaningful price gains supported by new long-term contracts.

    機身營收小幅下滑,符合我們的預期,且成長將在下半年加速。國防相關營收較去年成長36%,由強勁需求與顯著的價格提升所驅動,而價格提升受到新的長期合約支撐。

  • Specialty energy revenue declined 6%, reflecting our decision to prioritize available production capacity toward higher-value naval nuclear demand during the quarter. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $284 million, up 37% year-over-year.

    Specialty Energy營收下滑6%,反映我們在本季決定優先將可用產能配置至價值更高的海軍核能需求。第二季調整後EBITDA為2.84億美元,年對年成長37%。

  • This was $34 million above the midpoint and $29 million or 11% above the high end of our guidance excluding a $10 million asset sale gain in AA&S, underlying operating performance still exceeded the high end of our guidance by nearly $20 million, reflecting stronger pricing and mix.

    此數字較指引中點高出3,400萬美元,且在排除AA&S中1,000萬美元資產出售收益後,仍較指引上緣高出2,900萬美元或11%;若看基礎營運表現,仍較指引上緣高出近2,000萬美元,反映更強的定價與產品組合。

  • Second quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin was 22.6%, up 440 basis points year-over-year. First half free cash flow improved significantly to $143 million compared with a use of $50 million in the first half of 2025. Managed working capital as a percentage of sales at the end of Q2 was 34%.

    第二季合併調整後EBITDA利潤率為22.6%,年對年提升440個基點。上半年自由現金流大幅改善至1.43億美元,相較於2025年上半年為使用5,000萬美元。截至第二季末,管理後營運資金占銷售額比例為34%。

  • We see further opportunities to improve inventory performance. For example, we are implementing a customer consignment strategy for forging input material to improve working capital efficiency.

    我們看到仍有進一步改善存貨績效的機會。例如,我們正在對鍛造投入材料實施客戶寄售策略,以提升營運資金效率。

  • Capital expenditures were $69 million, including $23 million funded directly by customers. All key growth projects remain on schedule and on budget.

    資本支出為6,900萬美元,其中2,300萬美元由客戶直接出資。所有關鍵成長專案仍按進度且在預算內。

  • Now on Slide 9, I'll review segment performance. HPMC sales increased 5% year-over-year to $637 million, primarily driven by growth in nickel products for jet engines. Segment margins expanded 40 basis points from the same period last year to 24.1%.

    現在看第9頁投影片,我將回顧各事業部門的表現。HPMC銷售額年增5%至6.37億美元,主要由噴射引擎用鎳產品的成長所帶動。事業部門利潤率較去年同期擴張40個基點至24.1%。

  • Demand remains strong, while the timing of customer qualifications related to our new facility in Mexico and the EB2 titanium furnace shifted certain deliveries into future periods. These are timing effects and were partially offset in Q2 by higher volume and pricing on rotating jet engine nickel alloys. We see the deferred demand converting in the second half.

    需求仍然強勁,但與我們墨西哥新廠及EB2鈦熔爐相關的客戶認證時程,將部分交付遞延至未來期間。這些屬於時點影響,並在第二季部分被旋轉件噴射引擎鎳合金較高的出貨量與價格所抵銷。我們預期遞延的需求將在下半年轉為實際出貨。

  • In AA&S, sales increased 17% year-over-year to $624 million. Growth reflected multiple drivers, including pricing, mix and defense performance. Segment margin expanded 930 basis points to an all-time high of 23.7%, reflecting stronger pricing, execution and a more favorable mix.

    在AA&S方面,銷售額年增17%至6.24億美元。成長反映多項驅動因素,包括價格、產品組合以及國防業務表現。事業部門利潤率擴張930個基點至23.7%的歷史新高,反映更強的定價、執行力以及更有利的產品組合。

  • As Kim mentioned, AA&S is a fundamentally different business today. Through portfolio optimization, including 80/20, we have shifted this segment toward higher-value applications.

    如Kim所提到,AA&S如今在本質上已是截然不同的業務。透過投資組合最佳化(包括80/20法則),我們已將此事業部門轉向更高價值的應用。

  • We've been building an integrated interconnected business as our unique alloys are used across both HPMC and AA&S. Looking ahead, we see AA&S EBITDA margins consistently above 20%. This improvement in AA&S means both segments will now contribute to durable profitable growth.

    我們一直在打造一個整合且相互連結的業務,因為我們的獨特合金同時應用於HPMC與AA&S。展望未來,我們預期AA&S的EBITDA利潤率將穩定維持在20%以上。AA&S的改善意味著兩個事業部門現在都將為可持續的獲利成長做出貢獻。

  • We are raising our full year outlook across every key financial measure. Our confidence is supported by contracted pricing, committed customer schedules, a higher structural earnings base in our AA&S segment and HPMC shipments that moved from Q2 to the second half.

    我們上調全年在每一項關鍵財務指標上的展望。我們的信心來自已簽約的定價、客戶承諾的排程、AA&S事業部門更高的結構性獲利基礎,以及HPMC原本在第二季、現已移至下半年的出貨。

  • In AA&S, our renewed nuclear agreements, accelerated defense deliveries and shipments and improved hafnium and zirconium pricing provides support for sustained performance through the balance of the year.

    在AA&S方面,我們重新簽訂的核能協議、加速的國防交付與出貨,以及鉿與鋯價格的改善,為今年剩餘期間的持續表現提供支撐。

  • In HPMC, completed contract renewals are providing improved pricing and mix for jet engine materials. While customer qualification timing affected the second quarter, the associated demand remains a strong element in our second half production plan.

    在HPMC方面,已完成的合約續約為噴射引擎材料帶來更佳的定價與產品組合。雖然客戶認證時程影響了第二季,但相關需求仍是我們下半年生產計畫中的強勁要素。

  • Momentum will build in the third quarter carrying into the fourth quarter and next year. Our improved outlook reflects not only supportive end markets, but a stronger and more balanced ATI.

    動能將在第三季開始累積,延續至第四季並進入明年。我們上調展望不僅反映終端市場的支持,也反映ATI更強且更均衡的體質。

  • As shown on Slide #10, in the third quarter of 2026, we anticipate adjusted EBITDA of $305 million to $315 million, translating to adjusted EPS of $1.31 to $1.37. At the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA would increase 38% compared with the third quarter of 2025 and 9% sequentially.

    如第10頁投影片所示,在2026年第三季,我們預期調整後EBITDA為3.05億至3.15億美元,對應調整後每股盈餘(EPS)為1.31至1.37美元。以區間中點計算,調整後EBITDA較2025年第三季增加38%,並較前一季增加9%。

  • We anticipate sequential profit improvement driven by AA&S pricing and mix strength, particularly in aerospace and defense. HPMC performance will strengthen as deliveries build through the second half with momentum starting in the third quarter and building into the fourth quarter. We see consolidated adjusted EBITDA margins expanding in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of 2026.

    我們預期獲利將逐季改善,主要由AA&S的定價與產品組合優勢所帶動,尤其是在航太與國防領域。隨著下半年交付量逐步增加,HPMC表現將轉強,動能自第三季開始並延續至第四季。我們預期2026年第三季合併調整後EBITDA利潤率將較第二季擴張。

  • Turning to Slide 11. Our higher full year outlook reflects the second quarter outperformance in AA&S and a better second half baseline. The increase versus our prior outlook is primarily supported by stronger AA&S pricing, mix and defense performance.

    接著看第11頁投影片。我們較高的全年展望反映AA&S在第二季的超預期表現,以及更佳的下半年基準。相較於先前展望的上調,主要由更強的AA&S定價、產品組合與國防業務表現所支撐。

  • Our full year HPMC outlook continues to reflect sequential improvement in performance as we previously anticipated. Specifically, we have committed contracts in place. This is not speculative. In addition, we will capture the second quarter timing effects during the second half.

    我們對HPMC的全年展望仍反映如先前預期的逐季改善。具體而言,我們已有承諾合約在手。這並非推測。此外,我們將在下半年消化第二季的時點影響。

  • We are raising our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance to the range of $1.135 billion to $1.185 billion. The midpoint of the range represents 35% increase over prior year. This outlook translates to full year adjusted EPS range of $4.90 to $5.18.

    我們將全年調整後EBITDA指引上調至11.35億至11.85億美元。區間中點代表較去年增加35%。此展望對應全年調整後EPS區間為4.90至5.18美元。

  • We see margin expansion in 2026 with full year consolidated adjusted EBITDA margins now projected in the low 20% range. We now expect full year consolidated incremental margins in the range of 50%. This is an improvement over the 40% we previously communicated, driven by additional strength in our AA&S segment.

    我們預期2026年利潤率將擴張,全年合併調整後EBITDA利潤率目前預估在20%出頭的區間。我們現在預期全年合併增量利潤率約為50%。這較我們先前溝通的40%有所改善,主要由AA&S事業部門的額外強勁表現所帶動。

  • We anticipate second half performance to build sequentially. In the third quarter, the primary drivers are continued pricing and mix strength in aerospace and defense for both segments.

    我們預期下半年表現將逐季走強。在第三季,主要驅動因素是兩個事業部門在航太與國防領域持續的定價與產品組合優勢。

  • We see the fourth quarter as our strongest quarter of 2026 for sales and profit. Our midpoint guidance implies approximately $335 million of EBITDA in Q4. That translates to roughly $1.350 billion annualized exit rate.

    我們認為第四季將是2026年在銷售與獲利方面最強的一季。我們的中點指引意味著第四季EBITDA約為3.35億美元。這相當於約13.50億美元的年化期末退出水準。

  • While we are not providing 2027 guidance today, the commercial and operational drivers supporting that performance extend into next year. At a segment level, we see full year EBITDA margin for HPMC in the mid-20% range, consistent with our outlook from previous quarters.

    雖然我們今天不提供2027年指引,但支撐該表現的商業與營運驅動因素將延續至明年。以事業部門層級來看,我們預期HPMC全年EBITDA利潤率在20%中段,與我們前幾季的展望一致。

  • AA&S full year EBITDA margin will be in the low 20% range, an improvement over the upper teens level we communicated last quarter. The uplift is supported by stronger pricing and mix shifting towards aerospace and defense, as we've discussed. Note that the performance of our segments is increasingly driven by similar market dynamics.

    AA&S全年EBITDA利潤率將在20%出頭的區間,較我們上季所溝通的10%高段水準有所提升。如我們所討論,這項上調由更強的定價以及產品組合轉向航太與國防所支撐。請注意,我們各事業部門的表現正日益受到相似的市場動態所驅動。

  • Turning to adjusted free cash flow. We are raising the midpoint of our range by $80 million, setting the range between $550 million and $600 million. The $575 million midpoint is $195 million higher than the 2025 free cash flow, a 51% increase year-over-year.

    接著談調整後自由現金流。我們將區間中點上調8,000萬美元,將區間設定為5.50億至6.00億美元。5.75億美元的中點較2025年自由現金流高出1.95億美元,年增51%。

  • This implies adjusted free cash flow generation of $430 million in the second half, driven by higher earnings, inventory conversion associated with scheduled shipments and customer-funded capital. Our capital deployment strategy is unchanged. Our gross CapEx range remains consistent with prior guidance at $280 million to $300 million.

    這意味著下半年調整後自由現金流將達4.30億美元,主要由更高的獲利、與排定出貨相關的存貨轉換,以及客戶出資的資本支出所帶動。我們的資本配置策略維持不變。我們的資本支出(CapEx)總額區間仍與先前指引一致,為2.80億至3.00億美元。

  • This includes the greenfield expansion facility in Mexico, which Kim mentioned. Customer-funded CapEx of $55 million to $65 million will be a partial offset. Share repurchases remains a priority for deploying incremental free cash flow.

    其中包括Kim提到的墨西哥綠地擴建設施。客戶出資的資本支出5,500萬至6,500萬美元將形成部分抵銷。股票回購仍是運用新增自由現金流的優先事項。

  • We view them as the most efficient way to return capital to shareholders. As of today, after our $50 million repurchase in Q2, we have $495 million remaining under our current repurchase authorization.

    我們認為這是向股東返還資本最有效率的方式。截至今日,在我們於第二季回購5,000萬美元之後,依據目前的回購授權,我們仍有4.95億美元的剩餘額度。

  • Overall, we delivered a strong first half and expect even better second half. Our increased outlook is supported by contracted pricing, a record backlog, committed customer schedules and planned shipment timing.

    整體而言,我們上半年表現強勁,並預期下半年將更佳。我們上調展望的支撐因素包括已簽約的定價、創紀錄的在手訂單、客戶已承諾的排程以及計畫中的出貨時點。

  • Kim, back to you.

    Kim,交給你。

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Rob. As we look ahead, our priorities remain clear: continue improving execution through Elevation, bring differentiated capacity online and allocate capital where returns are highest.

    謝謝,Rob。展望未來,我們的優先事項依然明確:持續透過 Elevation 改善執行力、讓具差異化的產能上線,並將資本配置在報酬最高之處。

  • We are confident in our ability to convert strong demand into sustained growth, higher earnings and cash flow. Now let's open the line for questions.

    我們有信心將強勁需求轉化為可持續的成長、更高的獲利與現金流。現在我們開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Richard Safran, Seaport Research Partners.

    (接線員指示) Seaport Research Partners 的 Richard Safran。

  • Richard Safran - Analyst

    Richard Safran - Analyst

  • I have one question and one quick follow-up. On the guidance raise, if I did the math right, you did -- at the midpoint, you took EBITDA up by $125 million, but you took up your free cash flow guide by $80 million.

    我有一個問題,外加一個簡短追問。關於上調指引,如果我算得沒錯,在中位數,你們把 EBITDA 上調了 1.25 億美元,但自由現金流指引只上調了 8,000 萬美元。

  • So I just wanted to know if you could go over what drove that and how we should be thinking about cash and cash conversion going forward?

    所以我想請你們說明一下是什麼因素造成這個差異,以及我們未來應如何看待現金與現金轉換率?

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Rich. It's -- I appreciate the question. So yes, I'll start -- I'll share a little bit on the guide, and then I'll hand it over to Rob.

    謝謝,Rich。我很感謝這個問題。所以是的,我先從指引談起、分享一些內容,然後再交給 Rob。

  • He can talk a little bit about the free cash flow and the outlook. I'll say our guide and our raise is really based on the strong performance we've had this quarter, and it's based on things that are already in place.

    他可以再談談自由現金流與展望。我想說,我們的指引以及這次上調,確實是基於本季的強勁表現,也基於已經到位的事項。

  • So this is the contracted pricing improvements that we're seeing flow through, recently committed long-term agreements and customer orders that are already committed.

    也就是我們看到的合約定價改善開始反映出來、近期已承諾的長期協議,以及已經承諾的客戶訂單。

  • And so we have high confidence that this is based on all those things I just mentioned, committed orders and a stronger business and the structural improvement that I shared in the prepared remarks around AA&S.

    因此,我們非常有信心,這是建立在我剛提到的所有因素之上:已承諾的訂單、更強的業務,以及我在事先準備的講稿中就 AA&S 所分享的結構性改善。

  • You add in there some of the timing changes for HPMC, and that's what drives our confidence as far as our outlook. And to your point around cash flow, typically, we start the first half off -- we started from $143 million this year.

    再加上 HPMC 的一些時點變動,這些共同推動了我們對展望的信心。至於你提到的現金流,通常我們上半年起步——今年我們從 1.43 億美元開始。

  • It typically accelerates as we go through the year, and we anticipate that continuing as we go forward. But Rob, do you want to add any more color on that?

    一般會隨著年度推進而加速,我們也預期未來會延續這個趨勢。不過 Rob,你要不要再補充一些說明?

  • James Robert Foster - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Robert Foster - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes, Rich, when I think about the cash flow, if you think about the increase in the EBITDA really, we're talking about higher shipments in the second half.

    是的,Rich,談到現金流時,如果你看 EBITDA 的上調,本質上我們談的是下半年出貨量更高。

  • And essentially, the reason why that's not all going to convert is really 2 things. One, it's the timing of conversion through accounts receivable.

    而之所以不會全部轉換成現金,主要有兩個原因。第一,是透過應收帳款轉換的時點。

  • So we'll expect some of that higher volume with those late Q4 shipments to be in receivables. And the second piece is we do plan on a little bit more inventory as we prepare for the early part of 2027.

    因此,我們預期部分較高的出貨量,尤其是第四季末的出貨,會反映在應收帳款上。第二個部分是,為了因應 2027 年初,我們確實計畫準備多一些庫存。

  • So I think it's important to call out that when you look at our full year cash flow and the guide of the midpoint of $575 million, that represents an increase of over 51% from the full year 2025.

    所以我認為重要的是要指出,當你看我們全年現金流以及中位數 5.75 億美元的指引時,這代表相較於 2025 全年增加超過 51%。

  • And when I think about the free cash flow conversion, that assumes a high 80%, and as we've stated several times, our goal is to drive well over 90% free cash flow conversion. So I think we're trending in the right direction.

    再談自由現金流轉換率,這個假設是接近 80% 後段(high 80%),而且如同我們多次提到的,我們的目標是把自由現金流轉換率推升到遠高於 90%。所以我認為我們正朝正確方向前進。

  • And as I think about going forward into 2027, I'm not going to give updated guidance here today on 2027, but the free cash flow conversion at 90% or greater is where we're thinking about the target.

    至於展望 2027 年,我今天不會在此提供更新的 2027 指引,但我們所思考的目標是自由現金流轉換率達到 90% 或更高。

  • Richard Safran - Analyst

    Richard Safran - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just a quick follow-up on AA&S and at the risk of pressing you on something. So given your remarks about transforming the business, your comments about 20% EBITDA margins, would you be willing to talk a bit more about the EBITDA margin potential at AA&S, how we should be thinking about it if growth and mix continues to improve? Would you be willing to give out a bit more specific on that?

    好的。接著就 AA&S 做個簡短追問,冒昧再追問你們一下。鑑於你們提到正在轉型業務、也談到 20% 的 EBITDA 利潤率,你們是否願意再多談一些 AA&S 的 EBITDA 利潤率潛力?如果成長與產品組合持續改善,我們應該如何看待?你們是否願意提供更具體一些的說法?

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Yes, from -- as you said, fantastic performance in the quarter by AA&S in the segment, and it's a transformation that we've been working on for several years.

    當然。是的,正如你所說,AA&S 事業部本季表現非常出色,這也是我們多年來一直在推動的轉型。

  • You've heard me talking about it. As we look out, we anticipate we can see AA&S in the mid-20% range going forward. And really because this is based on structural changes that we've been making in this segment for, as I said, the last few years.

    你也聽我談過這件事。往前看,我們預期 AA&S 未來可達到 20% 中段(mid-20%)的水準。主要原因在於,這是基於我們在該事業部過去幾年(如我所說)所做的結構性變革。

  • One, it started with the transformation in our Flat Rolled business, exiting the standard stainless and focusing our resources on that highest value products through 80/20.

    第一,起點是我們在平軋(Flat Rolled)業務的轉型:退出標準不鏽鋼,並透過 80/20 將資源聚焦於最高價值的產品。

  • And here most recently, we've strengthened our commercial model and restructured long-term agreements, improved pricing and mix. And now we're benefiting from the acceleration around defense and nuclear demand as we look forward.

    而在最近,我們強化了商業模式並重整長期協議,改善定價與產品組合。同時,展望未來,我們也正受惠於國防與核能需求的加速成長。

  • I mentioned in my prepared remarks that A&D is more than double where we were 5 years ago at 44%. And maybe even more impressive, if I look year-over-year at the AA&S segment, A&D is up 34% year-over-year.

    我在事先準備的講稿中提到,航太與國防(A&D)占比為 44%,較 5 年前增加一倍以上。也許更令人印象深刻的是,若以 AA&S 事業部年對年來看,A&D 年增 34%。

  • And so as you said, really focused on structural change, both from a market mix, pricing and contractual agreements. I think the last thing just to mention here that we're also benefiting from is that our business, SA&C on the West Coast is 1 of 3 qualified Western producers of high-purity hafnium and zirconium.

    因此,如你所說,我們確實聚焦於結構性變革,涵蓋市場組合、定價與合約協議。最後還要補充的是,我們也正受惠於西岸的 SA&C 業務——它是西方僅有三家合格的高純度鉿與鋯生產商之一。

  • And that provides another durable competitive advantage, especially given, as I mentioned in my remarks, supply chain continue to tighten and trade continues to change and create more demand, which allows us to capture that value.

    這也帶來另一項持久的競爭優勢,尤其是在我提到的供應鏈持續收緊、貿易格局持續變化並創造更多需求的背景下,使我們得以掌握這些價值。

  • So as we think about it and look at AA&S today, we're talking about a business that's fundamentally different from an earnings profile than it was a year ago. And that gives me the confidence to say that we're going to be in that mid-20% range going forward.

    因此,當我們思考並看待今日的 AA&S,我們談的是一個在獲利輪廓上與一年前根本不同的業務。這也讓我有信心表示,未來我們將維持在 20% 中段(mid-20%)的區間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

    JPMorgan 的 Seth Seifman。

  • Seth Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Seifman - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the outlook in HPMC in the second half. You talked about catching up on some of the revenue.

    我想詢問 HPMC 下半年的展望。你們提到要把部分營收補回來。

  • And to the extent that you also see margin expansion, I think the first half margin is kind of in the range -- mid-20s type of range that you've talked about, but had also been thinking about some LTA rollovers and mix improvement driving second half margin expansion there and if that's still part of the outlook?

    另外,如果你們也看到利潤率擴張的話,我認為上半年利潤率大致落在你們提過的 20% 中段區間;但我原本也在想,下半年是否會因部分長期協議(LTA)續約到期(rollover)以及產品組合改善而推動利潤率擴張,而這是否仍是展望的一部分?

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Seth, so as I think about it and we look at HPMC, we've been talking about through this year, we had a step-up coming in the back half of the year, so here in third quarter.

    是的。Seth,當我思考這件事並檢視 HPMC 時,我們今年一直在談到下半年會有一個躍升,所以就在這裡的第三季。

  • And it is based on a couple of things. Some I talked about. One is the work we're doing through Elevation and the improvements around productivity and taking cost out of our operation.

    而這是基於幾個因素。其中一些我已經提過。其一是我們透過 Elevation 所做的工作,以及在生產力提升與從營運中降低成本方面的改善。

  • But more importantly, as you mentioned, we've got contractual renewals that are kicking in and step up in pricing, and we are still expecting to see that. In addition, as you said, we had some timing changes with our 2 new facilities that we are in qualifications, one in Mexico and then the EB premium quality titanium. So those are also moving out.

    但更重要的是,如你所提到的,我們有合約續約開始生效並帶來價格上調,我們仍然預期會看到這點。此外,如你所說,我們的兩座新設施在時程上也有一些變動,目前正處於認證階段,一座在墨西哥,另一個是 EB 高階品質鈦材。所以這些也都往後遞延了。

  • As I look at the quarter, we had probably around $30 million to $40 million of revenue that moved from the first half into the second half, where the margins were maybe 40% to 50% shifting into the future periods. And that will accelerate as those facilities continue to ramp and come online.

    就本季來看,大約有 3,000 萬到 4,000 萬美元的營收從上半年移到下半年,而其毛利率大概是 40% 到 50%,因此移轉到未來期間。而隨著這些設施持續爬坡並上線,這個速度會加快。

  • But we do continue to see sequential improvements through the balance of the year based on those new contract pricing. And these are the same drivers that underpin our confidence in that stronger half outlook and the improvement in our HPMC outlook as well.

    但我們確實仍預期在今年剩餘期間,會因為這些新合約定價而看到逐季改善。而這些也是支撐我們對下半年更強展望、以及對 HPMC 展望改善之信心的相同驅動因素。

  • Seth Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Seifman - Analyst

  • And just one clarification, that 40% to 50%, that's kind of an incremental margin cadence that we're discussing there.

    再澄清一下,那個 40% 到 50% 指的是我們在討論的增量利潤率節奏。

  • James Robert Foster - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Robert Foster - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Strauss, Wells.

    David Strauss,Wells。

  • David Strauss - Equity Analyst

    David Strauss - Equity Analyst

  • Rob, you touched on kind of the implied Q4 EBITDA as an exit rate into next year. I guess, is there anything unusual in that number? Is there anything -- any reason as to why we wouldn't kind of -- or you guys wouldn't kind of grow off of that level as we head into '27?

    Rob,你提到第四季隱含的 EBITDA 作為進入明年的退出水準。我想問,那個數字裡有什麼不尋常的地方嗎?是否有任何原因,讓我們不該——或你們不該——在邁向 2027 年時,以那個水準為基礎繼續成長?

  • And kind of within that, are you thinking as we look at '27 is 50% incrementals for the overall business with what you're talking about for AA&S now? Is that a sustainable kind of run rate to use for incrementals from here?

    另外,在這之中,當我們看 2027 年時,針對整體業務,你們是否認為增量利潤率是 50%,就像你們現在對 AA&S 所談的那樣?從現在起,這會是一個可持續、可用來估算增量的運行水準嗎?

  • James Robert Foster - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Robert Foster - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes. Thanks, David. Well, when I look at Q4 and you think about what that implies for the exit rate for the full year, it implies $1.350 billion of EBITDA.

    是的。謝謝你,David。嗯,當我看第四季並思考這對全年退出水準的意涵時,意味著 EBITDA 為 13.50 億美元。

  • And while I'm not going to give 2027 guidance today, I think I can say that it kind of directionally makes sense. And when you look at those incrementals, we have increased our incrementals from 40% to 50%.

    雖然我今天不會提供 2027 年的指引,但我想我可以說,方向上是合理的。而當你看那些增量時,我們已將增量利潤率從 40% 提高到 50%。

  • So I think it's fair to think about this business from all the structural changes that we've made to be a business that can deliver margins in that 40% to 50% incremental range. But again, we're not going to put a fine point on the 2027 today, but we do expect to give some additional guidance here coming forward.

    所以我認為,考量我們所做的所有結構性變革,把這門業務視為能夠在 40% 到 50% 的增量範圍內交付利潤率,是合理的。但同樣地,我們今天不會對 2027 年下定論,不過我們確實預期接下來會提供一些額外指引。

  • David Strauss - Equity Analyst

    David Strauss - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And a quick follow-up. Kim, you talked about kind of mid-20s EBITDA margin for AA&S. What are you assuming kind of on a go-forward basis, the mix of A&D is within total AA&S sales? I think you're at 44% now. What do you assume going forward?

    好的。再追問一個。Kim,你提到 AA&S 的 EBITDA 利潤率大約在 20% 中段。就往後來看,你對 AA&S 總銷售中 A&D 的組合占比是怎麼假設的?我想你們現在是 44%。你們往後假設是多少?

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So as I look forward, we're assuming that mix of A&D continues to stay at that level and it will continue to rise as we renegotiate contracts.

    是的。所以往前看,我們假設 A&D 的組合占比會維持在這個水準,並且會在我們重新談判合約時持續上升。

  • I do believe that the tightness in the hafnium and zirconium markets that go into both defense and specialty energy are going to continue to become tight, especially given some of the trade restrictions we're seeing out of China.

    我確實認為,進入國防與特種能源的鉿與鋯市場的緊俏狀況將會持續,尤其考量我們看到中國方面的一些貿易限制。

  • So I could see that percentage continue to increase as we look across the segment, and that will help support that mid-20s percent from a structural standpoint.

    因此,當我們檢視整個事業部時,我可以預見這個百分比會持續提高,而這將在結構面上有助於支撐 20% 中段的水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Myles Walton, Wolfe.

    Myles Walton,Wolfe。

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • Could you touch on the still high -- mid- to high single-digit outlook for airframe that you talked about? Obviously, the first half of the year down and implying you need to get to something closer to mid-teens to get to the back half of the year.

    你能談談你提到的機身(airframe)仍然偏高——中到高個位數的展望嗎?顯然上半年是下滑的,這意味著你需要在下半年達到更接近中十位數的水準。

  • Is that predicated on the facilities coming online or any risk to that?

    這是以設施上線為前提嗎?或是其中有任何風險?

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think you were asking about airframe and our guide and outlook there. From our perspective, as I look at the airframe market, the inventories have largely normalized now, and that's consistent with what we've been expecting and what we've been seeing in our customer order patterns.

    我想你是在問機身以及我們在那裡的指引與展望。從我們的角度來看,當我檢視機身市場時,庫存現在大致已正常化,這與我們一直以來的預期一致,也與我們在客戶訂單模式中所看到的情況一致。

  • And so as we look into the second half, as we shared in the last quarter, we anticipate acceleration as we go through this year, and that does seem to be what is lining up.

    因此,當我們看向下半年,如同我們在上一季分享的,我們預期今年會逐步加速,而目前看起來確實正在朝這個方向發展。

  • It's important to remember, our orders don't directly align one-for-one with that aircraft build rate, but we're encouraged to hear about the step rate changes in build rates and both airframers are doing well. Our material is getting ordered well ahead of that assembly.

    需要記住的是,我們的訂單不會與飛機的生產速率一對一直接對齊,但我們很受鼓舞地聽到生產速率的階梯式調整,而且兩家機身製造商的表現都不錯。我們的材料會在組裝之前很早就被下單。

  • And so that confidence for that mid- to high single-digit range is really based on a couple of things. One is our fully committed order book is in place, and we've got order books now extending into 2027.

    因此,對於中到高個位數區間的信心,主要是基於幾個因素。其一是我們已具備完全承諾的訂單簿,而且目前訂單簿已延伸到 2027 年。

  • We are seeing, from both airframers, emergent demand in addition to that starting to come in as we go into the fourth quarter here.

    我們也看到,來自兩家機身製造商,除了既有需求之外,還有新出現的需求開始在第四季陸續進來。

  • And we're seeing some pull around widebody as they're starting to prepare for those programs as well. So from where I sit, the inventory normalization is largely behind us.

    而且我們看到一些對廣體機的拉動,因為他們也開始為那些專案做準備。所以就我所見,庫存正常化大致已經在我們身後了。

  • The business is increasing as we expected and we shared with you early in the year, and the underlying production demand is now aligned with their order rates.

    業務如我們所預期地在成長,也如同我們在年初就與各位分享的,而底層的生產需求現在已與他們的訂單速率對齊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

    Scott Deuschle,德意志銀行。

  • Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

  • Kim, can you share an update on the lead times you're now seeing across the different product lines the business has? And then also share what drove the sequential backlog growth in the quarter?

    Kim,你能更新一下你們目前在不同產品線所看到的交期(lead times)嗎?另外,也請分享本季積壓訂單(backlog)連續成長的驅動因素是什麼?

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, sure. So as we think about lead times, I think it's best to look at both backlog and lead time together because they tell the same story and they work together.

    當然,當然。所以談到交期時,我認為最好把積壓訂單與交期一起看,因為它們講的是同一個故事,而且彼此相互作用。

  • On the backlog side, I shared in the remarks, we finished the quarter at another record $4.4 billion. That's up 18% year-over-year and 7% sequentially. About 70% of that backlog we expect to convert into revenue over the next 12 months. So we have good visibility into the business.

    在積壓訂單方面,我在談話中分享過,我們本季結束時再創新高,達到 44 億美元。年增 18%,季增 7%。其中約 70% 的積壓訂單,我們預期會在未來 12 個月內轉為營收。因此我們對業務有良好的能見度。

  • As you look at lead times, and that's where we see those lead times starting to extend for our most differentiated proprietary products.

    當你觀察交期時,我們看到在我們最具差異化的自有專有產品上,這些交期開始拉長。

  • Right now, we're at about 12 months on nickel alloys. We've moved out to 20 months on the premium quality titanium as that tightness continues to expand.

    目前,鎳合金的交期大約是 12 個月。隨著供應緊俏持續擴大,我們已將高端品質鈦材的交期延長至 20 個月。

  • And we've been running above 24 months on isothermal forgings here for a little while. So taking together, those are both a really good indicator that demand continues to exceed the available capacity to support these programs and these differentiated materials.

    而等溫鍛造件方面,我們已經有一段時間維持在 24 個月以上。綜合來看,這些都是非常好的指標,顯示需求仍持續超過可用產能,難以支撐這些專案與這些差異化材料。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andre Madrid, US Bancorp.

    Andre Madrid,美國合眾銀行(US Bancorp)。

  • Andre Madrid - Equity Analyst

    Andre Madrid - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to see if you could break down the margin impact specifically in the quarter related to the recently signed naval nuclear agreement.

    我想請你們拆解一下,本季與近期簽署的海軍核能協議相關的毛利率影響,具體是哪些部分造成的。

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I'll let Rob take that one and share a little bit more color on it.

    好的。我讓 Rob 來回答,並補充一些更具體的說明。

  • James Robert Foster - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

    James Robert Foster - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance

  • Yes. So the naval nuclear contract is essentially a contract and a relationship that we've had for many decades. And essentially, the new contract that just recently began here effective in the second quarter is essentially a $1 billion revenue contract over 5 years.

    好的。海軍核能合約本質上是我們已維持數十年的一份合約與合作關係。而這份近期剛開始生效的新合約,於第二季起正式生效,基本上是一份 5 年、總營收約 10 億美元的合約。

  • And that is essentially kind of double what the previous 5-year contract was. And so a majority of that increase is price mix with some smaller, I'll call it, 2/3 price mix, 1/3 volume in that contract.

    這大致上是前一份 5 年合約的兩倍。因此,這次增加的主要來源是價格/產品組合,另有較小部分來自量的增加;我會說大約 2/3 來自價格/組合,1/3 來自出貨量。

  • And essentially, we saw some of that volume and price recognized in our AA&S segment financials a bit earlier than we were anticipating.

    而且,我們在 AA&S 事業部的財務表現中,比原先預期更早認列了部分出貨量與價格。

  • So while it wasn't a full quarter of shipments under the new contract, it was a majority of the second quarter was shipping under that new contract. So those are some of the dimensions.

    因此,雖然在新合約下並非整個季度的出貨,但第二季大部分時間的出貨都是依照新合約進行。以上是一些面向的說明。

  • Rob Rengel - Vice President - Investor Contact

    Rob Rengel - Vice President - Investor Contact

  • Operator, we're ready for our final question.

    接線員,我們準備好進行最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

    Seth Seifman,摩根大通(JPMorgan)。

  • Seth Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Seifman - Analyst

  • I like the slide that you added with the various capacity additions and kind of how they come online. It feels like as we progress through the quarters, we hear more about incremental demand, whether that's in the defense area.

    我很喜歡你們新增的那張投影片,列出各項產能擴增以及它們上線的時間點。感覺隨著季度推進,我們聽到更多增量需求,不論是在國防領域。

  • We got the missile frameworks this year and now people talking about lots of low-cost cruise missiles and CCAs. IGT market remains pretty hot. How are you thinking about -- or how are you evaluating -- I assume there are demands for incremental capacity increases beyond what you have on Slide 6. How are you kind of approaching those decisions now?

    今年我們看到飛彈框架,現在又有人在談大量低成本巡弋飛彈與 CCA。IGT 市場仍然非常火熱。你們如何思考——或如何評估——我猜除了第 6 張投影片所列之外,還有對進一步增加產能的需求。你們目前大致上是如何做這些決策的?

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, that list -- as you said, there's demand coming from all of our core markets, and it just continues to ramp, as you mentioned, missiles is another great one. That revenue is up 4x in the quarter. And so yes, we're seeing continued demand.

    是的,正如你所說,那份清單——需求來自我們所有核心市場,而且持續爬升;如你提到的,飛彈也是另一個很好的例子。該項營收在本季成長了 4 倍。所以是的,我們看到需求持續存在。

  • One of the things that we shared was more details around Elevation, our operating system. And so the way we approach this is Elevation is really about making sure that we get as much out of the assets that we already own before we invest in new capacity.

    我們也分享了更多關於 Elevation(我們的營運系統)的細節。因此,我們的做法是:Elevation 的核心在於確保在投資新產能之前,先把我們既有資產的產出最大化。

  • And so that is a continuous improvement activity that the teams continue to work on at improving throughput, increasing yields, shortening those cycle times to create that additional capacity and expand margin and generate cash.

    因此,這是一項持續改善的工作,各團隊持續提升產出吞吐量、提高良率、縮短週期時間,以創造額外產能、擴大利潤率並產生現金。

  • So once we've captured those and as we start to look out -- and again, our long-term contracts I've shared this in the past, provide a lot of visibility and sharing with our customers, especially around those hot section alloys, where we are producing 6 of 7 and 5 of them, we're the sole source supplier.

    當我們把這些都做到位後,並開始往外看——而且我過去也分享過,我們的長期合約提供了很高的能見度,並與客戶共享資訊,特別是在熱段合金方面;我們生產 7 種中的 6 種,其中 5 種我們是唯一來源供應商。

  • We have a lot of discussions around that long-term demand and outlook. And we take that then into account as we start to prioritize where do we make investments, where -- what is the timing.

    我們就長期需求與展望進行了大量討論。接著,我們把這些納入考量,開始排定投資優先順序:投資在哪裡、以及時程為何。

  • And of course, all of these projects have to meet our 30% return thresholds internally. You mentioned our newest facility in Mexico. That is really an important part of our downstream growth strategy.

    當然,所有這些專案在內部都必須達到我們 30% 的報酬率門檻。你提到我們在墨西哥最新的廠房。那確實是我們下游成長策略中非常重要的一環。

  • So we've talked a lot about the upstream with melt capacities in titanium and in nickel. But downstream, we've talked about from a bottleneck standpoint, is where the industry continues to have tightness as increasing requirements around quality and testing come into play.

    我們談了很多上游,例如鈦與鎳的熔煉產能。但在下游方面,從瓶頸的角度來看,隨著品質與測試要求提高,產業仍持續處於緊俏狀態。

  • And so that facility is going to be a key part of strengthening our ability to support the increased production rates, enhance our position in those programs for the next-generation engine. So there is, as you said, a lot of demand coming in.

    因此,該廠將成為強化我們支援更高生產速率能力的關鍵,並提升我們在下一代引擎相關專案中的地位。所以如你所說,確實有大量需求湧入。

  • We are aligning and using Elevation to help us maximize the asset portfolio we have today and then working closely with our customers to align on their future demands on those investments.

    我們正對齊並運用 Elevation,協助我們把現有資產組合的效益最大化,並與客戶密切合作,就其未來需求與相關投資進行對齊。

  • A great example just to end with is the customer funding that we continue to receive as they support not just the new asset investments, but also those qualifications, which can be very, very long and very involved to get to that qualified product.

    最後舉一個很好的例子:客戶持續提供資金支持,不僅用於新資產投資,也用於那些認證(qualification)工作;這些流程可能非常、非常漫長且繁複,才能達到合格產品。

  • So a lot of great new assets coming online this quarter and in the back half of the year. We see continued growth and confidence in the outlook, not just for 2026, but as we go into '27 and beyond. So you'll continue to hear from us as we share those results and the great work from the team.

    因此,本季以及下半年將有許多很棒的新資產上線。我們對展望持續成長並充滿信心,不僅是 2026 年,還包括邁向 2027 年及更長期。因此,當我們分享這些成果以及團隊的出色工作時,你們將會持續聽到我們的更新。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Kim Fields for closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。我現在把電話交回 Kim Fields 作結語。

  • Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Kimberly Fields - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining today. ATI is significantly transformed from a company that it was 5 years ago.

    謝謝你,接線員,也謝謝各位今天的參與。ATI 相較於 5 年前已經有了顯著的轉型。

  • We're more differentiated, more concentrated in attractive markets and capable of stronger margins and cash generation. We are building the ATI of the next decade, and we are only beginning to capture that opportunity in the results you saw in Q2. We look forward to sharing more at our Investor Day later this year.

    我們更具差異化、更聚焦於具吸引力的市場,並具備更強的利潤率與現金創造能力。我們正在打造未來十年的 ATI,而你們在第二季看到的成果,只是我們開始捕捉這個機會的起點。我們期待在今年稍晚的投資人日分享更多內容。

  • Thank you for joining us, and have a great day.

    感謝各位加入,祝大家有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。您現在可以掛線。