Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to ASUR's first-quarter 2024 results conference call.

My name is Sherry, and I will be your operator.

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Adolfo Castro, Chief Executive Officer.

Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Sherry, and good morning, evedryone.

Before I begin discussing our results, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements, which are based on current management expectations and beliefs and are subject to several risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including factors that may be beyond our company's control.

As usual, additional details about our quarterly results can be found in our press release, which was issued yesterday after market closed, and is available on our website in the Investor Relations section.

Following my presentation, I will be available for Q&A.

Moving on to the review of ASUR's operational and financial performance for the quarter.

As usual, all comparison discussed will be year-on-year unless specified otherwise.

We saw record high passenger traffic in the quarter at 18.6 million travelers, up 4% year-on-year.

This good performance was mainly driven by increases of 4% in Mexico, 12% in Puerto Rico, which more than offset the low single-digit decline in Colombia.

By region, Puerto Rico again stood at the region with the strongest traffic growth, with traffic up nearly 12%, driven by double-digit increases in both domestic and international traffic.

Traffic in Mexico was up nearly 4%, as high-single-digit growth in international and passengers driven mainly by traffic to and from the United States and Canada, more than offset the low-single-digit decline in domestic travel.

In addition to the impact from the initial effects of the Pratt & Whitney engine problem we have experienced in the last quarters, domestic traffic was also affected by a reduction in air traffic movements at Mexico City Airport, starting January 8 this year.

Recall this airport accounted for 45% of ASUR's domestic traffic in 2023, and we expect this to continue negatively impacting domestic traffic this year.

Lastly, in Colombia, traffic has started to recover with year-on-year declines [not derailing], down only 2% in the quarter, driven by easier comps in domestic traffic following the suspension of two local airlines in February of last year that accounted 20% of all traffic in Colombia in 2022, and 19% increase in international travel.

We expect the recovery in traffic in Colombia to continue through the remaining of the year as Avianca and LATAM continue to recover some of the lost routes, which March already posting a 9% growth in total traffic in Colombia.

Now turning to the P&L.

As a reminder, all reference to revenues and costs exclude construction and cost of revenues.

Total revenues increased 14% to just over MXN7 billion in the first quarter.

Mexico and Colombia stood out with growth in the mid-teens, while Puerto Rico delivered low single-digit revenue growth impacted by stronger peso despite the double-digit traffic growth.

Mexico, which accounted for 76% of total revenues posted a 16% increase in its top line.

This was mainly explained by growth in aeronautical services in the mid-20s, while non-aeronautical revenues increased low single digit.

Revenues in Puerto Rico, which accounted for 14% of the total, increased nearly 2% at 10% growth in non-aeronautical revenues was partially offset by a 5% reduction in aeronautical revenues, reflecting the strong peso.

Lastly, Colombia, which represented 10% of the revenues posted a mid-teen increase in top line, reflecting a good performance in both aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues, which benefited from the international traffic growth and the strong Colombian peso.

Executing our strategy of expanding our commercial offering over the past 12 months, we opened 17 new commercial spaces in Mexico, 6 in Puerto Rico, 22 in Colombia.

Commercial revenues were up nearly 5%, slightly above passenger traffic growth, mainly driven by increases of 10% in Mexico while Puerto Rico and Colombia posted increases of 10% and 14%, respectively.

On a per passenger basis, commercial revenues increased 2% year-on-year to nearly MXN125.

This performance was mainly driven by growth in the high teens in Colombia, again, reflecting a strong FX, which more than offset low single digits in Mexico and Puerto Rico.

On the cost front, consolidated expenses increased nearly by 14%, generally in line with revenue growth in the quarter.

This was mainly driven by Mexico, which reported a higher concession fee due to increases by 80% established by the Mexican government and 20% increase in minimum wages, both effective January 1, partially offset by the 50% reduction in the technical assistance fee.

Consolidated EBITDA increased 13% year-on-year to MXN5.1 billion in the quarter, while the adjusted EBITDA margin which excludes construction was 71.4% compared with the 71.9% in the year ago quarter.

All regions contributed to EBITDA growth.

Mexico remains the main driver of profitability with EBITDA increasing 15%, followed by Colombia with an increase of nearly 11% and Puerto Rico just over 1%.

Moving on to the balance sheet.

We closed the quarter with a strong cash and cash equivalent position of nearly MXN17 billion, up 21% from the same quarter last year.

Total debt declined 4% from the year end 2023, reflecting the position of the Mexican and Colombian pesos and the payment of principal amount of outstanding debt in Mexico.

In turn, the leverage ratio was negative 0.3 times.

Tomorrow, April 24, the annual shareholders' meeting is being held for which we have proposed the distribution of an ordinary cash dividend of MXN10.926 per share payable in May and an extraordinary cash dividend of MXN10 per share payable this year.

Lastly, last week, we published our 2023 sustainability report, the 20th report, and Circular Unica and encourage you to read them, all of which can be found in our website.

Wrapping up, first quarter 2024, delivered solid results even as we face the ongoing issues with Pratt & Whitney engines and the capacity reduction at Mexico City Airport.

Our group performance reflects increased traffic through our airports along with improved passenger experience we are delivering.

These trends bode well for the remaining of the year.

We are committed to support our growth potential and enhancing the passenger experience through the investment in capacity in our commercial offerings.

Importantly, our financial position is healthy, and our capital allocation priorities are balanced between investing for growth and returning cash to shareholders.

This ends my prepared remarks.

Sherry, please open the floor for questions.

(Operator Instructions) Alejandro Fuchs, Itaú.

Yes. Hello, Adolfo. Thank you for the call and for taking the questions. And congratulations on the results.

Two quick questions from my end.

Firstly on Mexico.

I was a little bit surprised to see administrative costs and cost of service increasing 2% and 10%.

Can you walk us through some of the initiatives that explained and the company's stake in this cost control that you guys are having?

That's the first one.

And then the second one is very quickly on Punta Cana.

There was no mention in the release about the current situation with the government of the Dominican Republic.

I wanted to know if you can give us a brief update of where we are.

Or any color is appreciated.

Thank you.

Thank you, Alejandro.

Well, in terms of the cost control, the most important thing was the reduction of the 50% strategic

[partner fee].

That is basically offsetting the increase in the concession fee we saw for the quarter.

In terms of other costs, of course, as you are mentioning administrative cost is 2%.

This has to do mainly with some efforts we have done in terms of insurance cost.

And the other negative effect was the 20% increase in minimum wage, that affects basically security and cleaning.

That's what I can say for the moment.

In the case of Dominican Republic, we do not see any update.

So the last update was the decree issued by the President on January 5, canceling the previous decree issued by the previous President that approved the construction of the airport.

We have presented our legal procedures and those are ongoing.

And once we know something from them, we will let you know.

Okay.

Thank you.

Rodolfo Ramos, Bradesco BBI.

Thank you.

Good morning, Adolfo.

Two questions on my side.

Elaborating a bit on your comment about the headwinds that you're seeing in Mexico City with the slot reductions there.

I mean, how viable do you think it is for Filipe Ángeles and even Toluca, which we have seen picking up to absorb and develop some of the traffic?

I personally haven't had a good experience flying in and out of Felipe Ángeles, but would like to get your thoughts on how these metropolitan airports might help you out there?

And then I have a second question on CapEx.

Okay.

In the case of Mexico City Airport, as I have said in the initial remarks, there was a restriction in capacity.

So there was a reduction from 52 to 43 air traffic movements per hour.

That's a 17% decrease in terms of capacity.

Basically, this reduction has been applied to domestic carriers, not to international.

And I can say for the quarter, Mexico City Airport has lost more or less, compared with last year, almost 1 million passengers.

In terms of Santa Lucía, I would say that not all the passengers that are not able to fly from Mexico City due to the lack of operations are willing to go to Santa Lucía.

And in that sense, the system is losing a lot of passengers.

In terms of Toluca, Toluca is basically the same as it was last year.

So Toluca partly has been kept in terms of no more frequencies or no more operations, probably from the government.

Thank you.

And my second question was on your CapEx program.

I mean, as you embark on this historic CapEx program, do you expect any disruptions to your commercial revenues per passenger as you roll out some of these projects?

What could be the impact in between, if any?

I don't see any disruption in terms of the commercial revenues because of the construction or because of expansions.

In terms of the CapEx, basically, today, we are preparing the projects in order to make the bidding process to find a contractor.

So that's why you are seeing a very small amount during the first quarter.

But I don't see any disruption the two -- of the three main expansions we will have, are those related to Terminal 4, the expansion and reconstruction of Terminal 1 and expansion of the Terminal in Riohacha.

And all of them are outside the operating area.

So we will be able to construct without affecting the operation of the airport.

Okay.

Thank you.

Guilherme Mendes, JPMorgan.

Hello, Adolfo.

Good morning.

Thanks for taking my question.

First question is regarding the MDP tariffs.

I recall on the last conference call, you mentioned about starting the MDP tariff increase in April.

Just wondering if you were able to do so, and how you're tracking on this price increase?

And the second question, if you could please comment about the traffic outlook and especially think about the breakdown between international passengers and domestic.

Okay.

In the case of the MDP, as you know, there was an adjustment approved by the government at the end of last year.

It was December 13, when we disclosed that.

We immediately targeted our internal procedures to adjust our intrinsic rates, so the rates of the products.

And those are going to be adjusted as from April 1 this year.

So the first quarter does not reflect any increase in tariffs -- with the increase in tariffs so far.

In terms of the traffic outlook, well, you know the Pratt & Whitney situation and the restriction of Mexico City will impact in a significant way the domestic traffic.

Probably you can consider a small decrease by the year in the domestic traffic.

We are hoping to be supported by the international traffic as it has been for the first quarter, basically with US and Canada, of course.

A challenge normally, it's going to be the summer because Canada does not travel in summer.

So the only engine or the only support should have to come from the US.

Okay, that's clear.

Thank you.

Have a good day.

Alberto Valerio, UBS.

Hi.

Thanks for taking my question, Adolfo.

My question is more on the bottom line.

Against our projections and also year-over-year, we see a higher financial results.

I would like to know if you had any nonrecurring event on this line for ASUR.

Thank you.

Sorry, but your sound is really bad.

I cannot understand your question, Alberto.

I'll try again.

Just if you have any nonrecurring event on financial results?

I cannot hear you.

I believe it was, any more current events on the financial results.

Well, the exchange rate is going to be extremely important for us.

You have seen some adjustment during the last two weeks.

And that has to do with international traffic in our case, as you have seen for the first quarter.

If you see the growth in aeronautical revenues for the first quarter, that probably was a surprise for you, but that has to come with a difference between the 6.8 million and 6.2 million passengers in terms of international passengers in the first quarter.

So the exchange rate is crucial.

Gracias.

Anton Mortenkotter, GBM.

Hi, Adolfo.

Thank you for the call and congrats on the results.

I have two quick questions.

One is related to trade receivables.

Just wondering what the dynamics seen in this quarter and why did that increase so much?

And the second one is regarding capital allocation.

Understanding that even when accounting for the high CapEx commitments for this year and also for the already announced dividends, the net cash position seems to be set to continue increasing during the year.

Could we expect an additional announcement on the dividend?

Or is there anything that's being thought about on that front?

Thank you.

Hi.

In the case of a trade receivables for the quarter, you can see a very nice adjustments or a decrease in the case of Puerto Rico that has to come -- that has to do with the recuperation of the result of the trend we have there, the 2% of the fuel flowage.

In terms of Mexico, that has to do with the normal operation and the same in the case of Colombia.

In terms of capital allocation, we ended the quarter with MXN17 billion.

The dividends that are proposed for tomorrow's shareholders meeting will be, roughly speaking, MXN6.6, MXN6.7. So then we have to see the CapEx.

But as I said during the initial remarks, we're trying to be, on one side, very supportive on the growth.

As you know, we have a MXN29 billion CapEx for the next five years.

But on the other side, we are paying this extraordinary dividend this year, which is almost the same as it was last year.

Thank you.

Juan Macedo, GBM.

Hi.

Thanks for the call and congrats on the results.

My first question would be a follow-up on a previous question regarding tariffs.

You mentioned that the first quarter, there wasn't an adjustment for the new Max tariff.

Do you mean by this that there was only a partial adjustment or was there none at all?

There were no adjustments on the first quarter.

All right.

That's very clear.

Thank you.

And just an additional question.

You mentioned that on April 1, you would do this adjustment.

Is this for the 100% of the maximum tariff?

Or at what level would we -- should we expect this adjustment?

Well, of course, it's not 100%.

It would have to be less than that.

The most, again, critical point will be the situation of the exchange rate.

As I mentioned, more than 50% of the traffic is international and those pay in US dollars.

All right.

That's very clear.

Thank you, Adolfo.

Fernanda Recchia, BTG.

Thank you, Adolfo, and congrats on the results.

Two follow-up question on our side.

The first regarding traffic outlook.

You provided an outlook for Mexico, but could you comment a little bit more on Puerto Rico and Colombia?

As you spoke on your initial remarks, Colombia started to see a normalization, how should we expect the traffic for the year-end?

And Puerto Rico, do you expect a slowdown on the double-digit growth pace that they are posting?

And my second question is on commercial revenues.

As you mentioned on our initial remarks, it reached close to MXN125 on a consolidated basis.

How should we expect this indicator to move along the year?

Do you expect, as we deploy more CapEx in Mexico, to increase the Mexico ratio?

Thank you.

Well, in the case of the traffic for Puerto Rico and Colombia, both will be, in my opinion, normalized during the year.

One that has to do with the bankruptcy of the two airlines in February last year.

In that sense, we show the first quarter negative of 2%, but if we see on a monthly basis, we saw an increase of 9% for the month of March.

So I hope, what I'm expecting is this to continue throughout the end of the year, and then that we are able to recuperate what we have lost from these two airlines.

In the case of Puerto Rico, their normalization goes exactly the opposite.

Because last year, we had a very nice increase when the Frontier went into the island.

And that's why we saw a very high traffic last year, above 20%, which is not normal.

During the first quarter, you saw the 12% increase, which is reducing from this 20% that we saw last year.

The 2023 increase in Puerto Rico was 18%.

So the normalization will be towards the second and third quarter to see a more normal growth in the case of Puerto Rico.

In terms of commercial revenues, I have to say that today, we're still struggling in the case of Mexico, because two things.

One has to do with exchange rate, of course.

And the other one has to do with the lack of expansion.

So commercial revenues from an operational perspective will continue to suffer this situation in the case of Cancun, basically Terminal 2, until we are able to expand the area that should occur at the end of '25.

Perfect.

Thank you very much.

Jay Singh, Citi.

Thanks for taking my question.

Jay dialing in from Stephen Trent's team.

The first question I want to ask, was it only in January, you reduced the technical assistance fees, or do you sort of do it in the subsequent quarter?

You've said January what?

Where you reduced the technical assistance fee?

The technical assistance reduction is from January 1 this year and it will be 2.5% in the next five years.

All right.

Thanks.

And my next question is that I know you already spoke a bit about Mexico City Airport area, but do you have any further comments on competition from Tulum?

Well, in the case of Tulum, what we know, roughly speaking, the numbers that have been published by the government are around 40,000, 41,000, 42,000 for the months of December, January and February, versus more like 3 million in the case of Cancun.

Thanks a lot.

João Frizo, Goldman Sachs.

Hi, Adolfo.

Good morning.

Thanks for taking my questions.

I have two quick follow-ups.

The first one is on the tariff side, right?

So if you could please help us reconcile what drove the increase quarter on quarter on passenger revenues in the first quarter, right?

We saw a sharp increase.

As you mentioned, you did not adjust for the MDP until April.

So this is not the driver.

So maybe was this a function of reducing the discounts you guys offered in the fourth quarter last year?

Or maybe something else?

If you could just help us reconcile, that would be great.

And my second follow-up is on Cancun Airport.

Could you please just remind us what the expected capacity would be once expansion is completed?

Thank you very much.

Well, in the case of the tariffs, you mentioned one of the effects as we compare tariff from the fourth quarter with the first quarter this year.

Well, first of all, we didn't adjust the tariffs during the first quarter.

So we are charging exactly the same as we were during the fourth quarter last year.

Let me put that very clear.

Of course, as you have mentioned, during the months of November and December, we had to give a 10% discount on the passenger fee, both international and domestic.

But the other effect, and that's what I have mentioned in the initial remarks, is the proportion of domestic and international for this quarter, you can see the difference between 6.8 million in international versus 6.2 million last year.

International traffic pays more due to the additional space we have to provide for customs and migration.

And that is why you probably have seen an increase.

But in terms of the tariffs of the specific products, there was no increase for the quarter.

In terms of the capacity of Cancun, what we are going to increase is, as I have mentioned, we're going to reconstruct and expand Terminal 1.

Terminal 1 should be more likely to 4 million passengers on a yearly basis.

Of course, the capacity has to do with the level of service.

In the case of Terminal 4, we are in the process to expand four additional boarding gates that would be more or less MXN3-something million in addition.

And finally, towards the end of the five-year period, we will have another 8 to 10 aircraft stands, also in Terminal 4 and that should be more or less 5 million to 6 million additional passengers on a yearly basis capacity.

Super clear.

Thank you very much.

Pablo Ricalde, Santander.

Hi, Adolfo.

Maybe a follow-up in the Mexico

[airport revenues].

That international contribution within passengers, how should we think in that flow in terms of USD?

Did you increase that year-over-year in USD terms?

In terms of international traffic, well, first of all, maximum rates are stated in Mexican pesos.

So the effect of the international versus domestic at the end, we reached close to the 100, there is no difference.

But the point is, during the quarter, compared with the quarter last year, international pay more pesos in comparison with the domestics.

And that's why we were able to see a better regulated revenue per passenger.

Okay.

So but if we like to see in USD term, because we saw short Mexico revenue year-over-year, and despite that, revenues grew almost 20% in the country.

Well, in that sense, again, if we see a domestic traffic decrease during the year, that could be offset by international traffic, that will help, of course, from this perspective.

And that's why I was saying also the FX, the exchange rate in Mexico versus dollar will be extremely important for the year.

Okay.

Thanks.

Gabriel Himelfarb, Scotiabank.

Hi, Adolfo.

Congrats on the result.

Just a quick follow-up question.

In terms of new investments, are you seeing any new investments, perhaps outside Mexico, maybe in the US or in the Caribbean?

Thank you.

For the moment, we do not have any project in France.

Okay.

Thank you.

Congrats on the results.

Arthur Suelotto, APO Capital.

Thank you, Adolfo, and congratulations for the results.

Just a quick question on my side.

You announced at the end of last year, the new MDP that will develop from 2024 onwards.

Just to know if you have any particular adjustments to the value of our concession on the balance sheet regarding this particular change in the way that the MDP is calculated?

And if so, is this recognized in the balance sheet of the fourth quarter 2023 or in this -- the first quarter of 2024?

Thank you.

No.

The adjustments on the balance sheet are once we construct the MDP.

We do not have any adjustment because of the approval we received last year.

Thank you.

Very clear.

(Operator Instructions) Francisco Suarez, Scotiabank.

Hi, Adolfo.

Good morning and thanks for the call.

And congrats on the results.

The question I have is on your projects related with water security.

Just to confirm, the two airports that you're speaking about that are part of the MDP are Huatulco and Riohacha, I guess?

Is that correct?

In terms of use of water?

Yes, the water security improvements to water-related projects that are part of the MDP.

Yes.

We have some other projects in some airports related to water, but of course, the most critical are the ones that you have mentioned, Riohacha and Huatulco because of, I would say -- I don't want to say the lack of the water, but there are some restrictions in both, and that's why we are working in those as we speak.

Got it.

And on that regard, noticing that you have committed on your science-based targets, two questions on that front.

How far your ambition may go?

Are you aiming to 1.5 degrees?

Or is it well below 2 degrees?

And secondly, do you think that the current framework, the regulation framework, the MDP might be supportive to put investments that are consistent with these targets?

Well, of course, we are putting those.

Those should be consistent on this quarter, but let me go back again to the most important initiative we have, which was signed on December 2015. [The agreement] represented 100% of the energy we were consuming, and that contract was to receive energy from solar sources.

The company that was in charge of this project has not been able yet to deliver the energy.

The solar farm is ready or has been ready for the last two years, and they have not been able to be connected due to the government restrictions.

So on that front, we're talking about, roughly speaking, 80 million-megawatt hours yearly, that, today, could represent 80% of the energy we have, or we are consuming.

So that is the most critical thing we have, because if they are not able to be connected, we will have to find out how to solve this situation.

In the case of the current MDP, as you have mentioned, there are some focus on energy, but the most important focus now is also water.

Got it.

Thanks.

Congrats again.

That concludes the question and -- question-and-answer portion of today's call.

I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Castro for closing remarks.

Thank you, Sherry, and thank you, all of you, again, for joining us today in this first-quarter 2024 conference call.

On behalf of ASUR, we wish you a good day and goodbye.

Now you may disconnect.