Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) 2011 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the ASUR's Fourth Quarter 2011 Results Conference Call. My name is [Juanita] and I will be your operator for today. At this time, al participants are in listen-only mode. We will conduct a question-and-answer session towards the end of this conference.

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn this call over to Mr. Adolfo Castro, chief executive officer. Please proceed.

Thank you, Juanita, and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us today for the conference call for the fourth quarter 2011 results.

Allow me to remind you that certain statements made here in the course of our discussion today may constitute forward-looking statements, which are made on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including those that may be beyond our company's control. For explanation of these risks, please refer to ASUR's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Mexican Stock Exchange.

On today's calls, I will provide an update on the key events that took place during the quarter and the different projects we have been discussing this year. Afterwards, I will comment on passenger traffic performance and the environment and results for the quarter.

As you know, on January the 4th, 2012 Fernando Chico Pardo sold 49% of ITA, ASUR's strategic partner, and almost half of its B shares to Grupo ADO. Fernando Chico Pardo remains chairman of ASUR and our strategy remains the same.

ADO operates a bus transport logistics business and already operates bus terminals at several of our airports, including Cancun, Merida and Villahermosa. ADO has been in business for 70 years, and last year transported approximately 160 million passengers.

In terms of our international expansion strategy, earlier this month we participated together with Advent International in the auction of a 51% equity stake for the Guarulhos Airport. Our bid, however, did not qualify among the three highest ones for the first phase of the auction. This basically reflects our idea that our business objective is not just to win a bidding process, but also to preserve return to shareholders.

Just to give you an idea, our bid for the Guarulhos Airport came in 100% below the winning bid, or almost 4.8 times the minimum requirement by the state government. We are not -- we do not believe that someone that can -- that someone can provide the right service to customers and return to shareholders with that number.

With respect to the privatization of San Juan, Puerto Rico International Airport, as you know, we are on the short listed for the bidding process and the process continues on track. The next step is to present an indicative bid on March 15th.

Before moving on to results, let me comment on a new development that we announced yesterday -- on yesterday's release. We have just been notified by the Ministry of Finance that they disagree with amortization rate we use for the concession in Cancun, which was agreed by the Ministry of Communications and Transport at the time of the bidding of the shares of the Mexican airport groups.

In fact, the Ministry of Communications and Transport use this basic principle as the key selling point when they sold the shares of the three airport groups. We believe someone in the Ministry of Finance is reading this wrong and we will go to the court to overturn this determination. But although we believe we have a strong legal position, a ruling has been given to reflect that we are right. We cannot assure that our appeal will prevail. If we were to lose the appeal, we estimate that this will result in a charge of MXN334.2 million.

Turning now to the results, this was a very good quarter. Passenger traffic increased 11.66% year-on-year, reflecting easy comparisons mainly in terms of the domestic traffic, which was up by 17%.

Total traffic was rose by 10.6% in October, 8.3% in November, and 15.3% in December. Despite the strong traffic performance, traffic is still remains below previous levels as a result of the lack of domestic airlines seat capacity following the disruption of Mexicana's operation and the suspension of Aviacsa in 2010.

Nevertheless, from September 2011 through January 2012, this has been the highest passenger traffic numbers for similar periods in ASUR's history. The share of international passenger traffic fell to 52.8% of the total traffic from the [slight] 55% in the fourth quarter 2010. Passenger traffic between Mexico, Canada and the United States represented 88.7% of total traffic compared with the 88.9% a year ago.

Consolidated revenues were up 14.58% this quarter, driven by revenue growth across the board. Excluding construction services, total revenue moves have increased 21%. Commercial revenues for passenger were up to MXN72.38, the highest quarter ever.

Remember that this quarter also includes revenues from the direct operation of 14 convenience stores that we open in fourth quarter -- in the fourth quarter 2010 were operated by a third party. As a result, we now include the total revenue from that operation instead of the corresponding concession fee, as was the case before.

Operating costs and expenses rose 6.58% year-on-year, mainly due to the higher cost of services, in addition to higher energy costs. Here again we are including the additional cost of operating these 14 convenience stores.

EBITDA was up 26.47% this quarter, with EBITDA margin increasing to 43.2% from the 39.1% achieved in the fourth quarter 2010. This quarter we invested MXN452.6 million and we continue with the terminal expansions in Veracruz, Villahermosa, Merida and Oaxaca Airports begun in the first quarter 2010.

Finally, our balance sheet remains strong, with cash and cash equivalents up 6% to MXN1.5 billion, and bank debt of MXN697 million. Now let me open the floor for questions. Please, Juanita, go ahead.

Thank you, Adolfo. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Eduardo Couto from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning, Adolfo, and congratulations on the strong fourth quarter results. Adolfo, I have basically two questions. The first one, I lost the beginning of the call when you were saying about the Puerto Rico Airport. Can you repeat? You said that the bid is going to be on March the 15th. Is that correct?

And I heard that the government in Puerto Rico was asking for maybe a higher payment, upfront payment for this concession or that they changed a little bit the terms for this auction. Do you know about that? Have they changed something or you still think that ASUR is pretty much on shape to bid for this airport? That's my first question.

Good morning. Thank you for your comments. What I have said is that we will have to present an indicative proposal on March 15th. Yes, it's true that the government has changed some of the procedures for the bidding process. You know that we have a confidentiality agreement, so I cannot share too much information with you. But basically the next step for us is to present an indicative proposal on March 15th.

But you still think that the airport and the concession, they are interesting, right?

For the moment, yes.

Okay. And just a second question, Adolfo, in relation to the traffic. The numbers in January of this year, they were quite strong. So I just would like to hear a little bit about you from what sort of expectations or any color that you can give for us in relation to traffic for this year, especially in Cancun. I think we have seen some recover out of the US and also the Caribbean region has been showing some good traffic numbers. So just wondering what are your thoughts on the -- on traffic for this year.

Okay. I agree with you, again, that the traffic numbers from first month of the year were strong. We are happy and we are surprised as well. What we are seeing is, apart from the growth that we were seeing last year from Latin America, from Europe, from Canada, now we're seeing some kind of growth from the United States, I would say since the month of September last year.

As I said during the initial remarks, the numbers for September, October, November, December and January have been the highest ever in the history of ASUR if we compare those with the same months of the previous years. What to expect for the future, well, hard to say. The situation in the world economics in general is not so attractive. But nevertheless, we are seeing this very nice passenger traffic figures.

Remember as well that the first quarter for us, it's a very important quarter because it's the highest in terms of absolute figures. So if this continues, it will have a lot on the results for the year. What I expect is that it's grown for this year. If this is going to be a good growth or a medium, moderate growth, that will depend on the next -- on the results for the next two months.

And, Adolfo, from the conversations that you had so far with the global carriers, are you expecting maybe a strong summer season or spring break? What's your view on the -- maybe the upcoming months? Can we expect the -- maybe not as strong as we saw, as you said, on the first -- on the last five months, but maybe high single digit numbers in terms of growth, does it make sense for you?

The most important part of the year for us is what we have today. It's from the second half of December, 15th of December until the end of the Holy Week, let's say, middle of April. That's the most important part of the traffic for us, and that's the high season, and this high season is coming basically from the United States and Canada. And that's what we are reflecting today in the numbers of the month of January.

For the summer and the future, that will depend most on the domestic traffic. And as we have seen, domestic traffic, of course, is growing. But it's growing coming from the disruption of Mexicana and Aviacsa in the past. In the case of Cancun, domestic traffic has been growing in the very nice way, I would say, completely recuperated from these two effects.

Is not the case for the smaller airports. They will be able to recuperate in the future once the other airlines have more capacity to the system. But for the moment we are happy. We are expecting what is going to happen in this high season, and that will, as I said before, that will give the color for the entire year.

Okay. Thank you and congratulations on the results.

Thank you.

Next question comes from Vanesa Quiroga from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Hi, Adolfo. Thanks for the call. And my question is regarding your -- what your strategy would be if for a specific reason ASUR doesn't win the concession for the San Juan Airport. Would you still try to keep your balance sheet situation in (inaudible) [show piece] state is in order to bid for other airports, maybe other ones in Brazil or what other options are you looking for around the world? Or would you be ready to distribute extraordinary dividend?

Okay, too many questions in one. Let me tell you if we do not win Puerto Rico, we will try the next one. As I said during the initial remarks, the objective is not just to win the bidding process. The objective is to win a bidding process and to preserve shareholders value or shareholder return. And this basically creating value in the concessions we're entering.

We have hopes in the case of Puerto Rico, but if we are not able or if someone else pays more, we will try the next. If this is going to be Brazil or somewhere else, we don't know. We will have to wait until the next process is available.

You said that we will pay an extraordinary dividend. Let me say that if we see what we have paid in terms of dividends as of the last day of the year 2009, basically we have paid all of what we have generated. Remember, dividends is something related to profits. And as of today, our balance of retail earnings is -- the profit is almost the profit of the year.

With the exception of the year 2010, when we had a change in the accounting principle that basically returns some profit resulted from depreciation we have tendered in the past to the P&L. So I don't see where we can see an extraordinary dividend. We are basically paying what we have generated up to the year 2009.

We are in the process today to have [alert] where we are now with the result that we have, the result that we are publishing right now and with the project that we have in front to propose something for the shareholders assumption.

Okay. Thank you, Adolfo. And then my other question is how is the, let's say, integration of the new partner are they -- have progress so far? Are you -- is anything in your commercial strategy changed given their experience? Are there any updates on how they have contributed to new goals or strategies on that front?

Nothing has changed for the moment.

Okay. Thanks, Adolfo.

You're welcome.

Thank you for your question. Next question from -- comes from Augusto Ensiki from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning, Adolfo. Question regarding your -- the direct operations of your convenience stores. Is there any plans to expand what your -- or how much you are -- you have on the direct operations to increase what you're doing in commercial?

And the second quick question is if you could tell us how much of cash and how much of debt is in US dollars. Thank you.

Augusto, good morning. Expansion of commercial activities in terms of direct operation, no, we do not have any intention to expand this to other lines of business as of today. What we have in terms of the stores is just the convenience stores. We do not intend to do anything else.

And in terms of how much do we have in dollars, basically I think your question is what we have in dollars in terms of debt is nothing, and in terms of cash in hand, I don't have the exact figure right now. But it should be close to $10 million.

Perfect. Thank you very much, Adolfo.

You're welcome.

Thank you for your question. Next question comes from Vivian Salomon from Itau. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning, Adolfo. Congratulations on the results. I just have three quick questions. The first one is specifically Brazil. After what you mentioned, would there be any interest to continue in the region or would there be any preference to look for other -- for other countries that would have a different scheme, such as maybe Puerto Rico could have similar aspects as what we already have in Mexico?

My next question is if you have any update on the new tariffs for Veracruz and Villahermosa. And if you can just comment a little bit, you talked about the international traffic. But the trends that we have seen in domestic continue to be very strong. What is your view on that and do you have any comment on the (inaudible) that Mexicana could come back to the market? Thank you.

Hi. Good morning, Vivian. Thank you for your kind comments. Well, as of today, we have say, and this is not in writing and is not written in stone, but we have said we are looking for some places in Latin America. If we see what is going on today, probably Brazil could be different than what we see or what we can see in Spain. Spain is probably closer in terms of distance and closer in terms of language.

But for the moment we have said just some places in Latin America. So we will be waiting to see -- waiting what happen in Puerto Rico, and then to decide what will be the next step if we do not -- are not the winners there.

What has happened in Veracruz and Villahermosa, thank you for the question. Nothing has happened. The authorities have not giving any kind of response. This is almost 18 months after. You know that the CEO of the DGAC has resigned. Today we do not have one in the charge of the CEO of the DGAC. I really don't know what to say. We have been pushing and sending letters asking for a response there. But it's the same. No response.

In the case of the domestic, yes, you're saying that the traffic are strong, but it's true that the comparison is different because in the case of the domestic, you know when Mexicana dropped in August 26th, 2010, our traffic was affected for some months, and then the comparison that we have today is not exactly the same.

If we see our historical figures in the case of domestic, we're still below the historical peak, the historical peak in terms of the last 12 months was in June 2008. We are almost 4% or 5% below. And I hope that the -- in the future, in the short term future we will be able to go back again to our historical big figures once the capacity from the other airlines is increased.

Perfect. Thank you so much. And if I could just ask one more question. Regarding the investment that we have seen and that the government would be making for the five states in which you are exposed because of the Maya -- the change in Maya Riviera, do you expect any more investments if that's what you have in your master development plan or we should just use the numbers that have been -- that are in the master development plan. Do you expect anything else to come from there?

Well, I really -- I'm really having really bad time hearing your question. But I'm trying to imagine what your question was. Basically you are asking about the MDP and the amount that we have to invest, you have a number there. We published that on April the 2nd, 2009.

More or less the figure for this year, it's around MXN800 million. And remember that after the five years, we will have to comply with all the commitments we made with the government. So I don't know if I answered your question because I was not able to hear your question.

Yes, it was just -- if there was something additional to the -- because of the investment that the local government will be making to attract more tourism to the area. Do you plan anything additional to be investing in your airports just because of these Maya celebrations that will take place this year?

Okay. No, no, no, nothing in addition to that. Remember we have the -- we have enough capacity in both cases in Cancun and in Merida to receive more people of the one that we are receiving normally. So, we will be ready to receive all the people that want to come to this celebration at the end of the year.

Perfect. Thank you so much.

Thank you.

Thank you for your question. Next question comes from Luis Willard from GBM. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Adolfo, good morning and congratulations on the results. Just a quick question. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the rents coming from the retail spaces regarding the commercial revenues, you are dollar denominated, right?

The retail space?

The rents.

The rents? No, they are not in dollars. Remember that most of our rents are basically coming from a concession fee and the concession fee is a portion of the sales and the sales normally are not in US dollars. So they are in pesos. Probably with the exception of duty free that some of the sales can be done in dollars. No, it's a portion of the concession fee what we are receiving, basically.

So, just to make it clear, the 26% increase in commercial revenues is fully related to, well, the strategies you have developed and the opening of new spaces and all that, rather than favored by FX rate?

Well, a piece could be coming from the change in the FX rate. But let me ask you something. Will you get a 50% or 30% hamburger because of the peso devaluation? I don't think so. Probably you are going to buy one additional bottle of tequila, but in terms of food, even if you are wealthier or you receive more money from -- more pesos from your dollars, you're not going to eat 1.3 hamburgers.

So we cannot say that just because of the peso devaluation all the commercial revenue is linked to the US dollars. A piece of that could be, yes, in the case of stores or duty free.

Okay, perfect. More related to rents and that on the fees. Thank you.

You're welcome.

Thank you for your question. Next question comes from [Javier Santiago] from [Scotia Bank]. Please go ahead.

Hello this is [Anna Vena] from Scotia Bank too. Thanks for taking my call. I was wondering if you could comment (inaudible - microphone inaccessible) so is your traffic in Puerto Rico, how long will the government take to analyze indicative proposal? And when do we expect to find out results?

Okay, let me try to repeat your question and see if that's the right question. You asked about the traffic in Puerto Rico?

No, no. I was asking how long will the government take to analyze the proposal you're going to submit in March 15 and when can we expect to find out results from the process.

Okay. There's no clear indication in the document how many days they will use to award this. What we know is that today we have to submit the indicative bids on March the 15th. Apparently this will be converted into a short lease. So from the six participants we are today, probably they will reduce this to three participants. Then they will ask for final offer, and they probably will use one, two, three months to declare a winner.

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

You're welcome.

Thank you. Next question comes from [Jose Vasquez] from GMB. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, Adolfo. Congratulations for the results. My question comes from Mexicana's issue seems to be resolving in the near term. Do you expect that the routes -- well, to return the routes that are belong to them in the, well, by the end of this year or when do you expect to recover all those traffic figures that were left from Mexicana?

Well, in the case of Mexicana, if we divide this in pieces, let's say Cancun and the others, in the case of Cancun we are better than where we were before Mexicana. In the case of the other airports, we are not. We are still seeing some kind of effect of lack of capacity, and this lack of capacity is creating basically higher prices, (inaudible).

I hope, as I said during the initial remarks, that we will be recovering this capacity in the short term future. But until we recover this capacity, we can talk that the traffic has been normalized or that we will not have any impact from the Mexicana disruption. Of course, in the overall numbers of ASUR would be that this is nothing, this is very small.

Remember that the smaller airports that we have in comparison with Cancun is 100 times. And this 100 times is a very small effect in the overall domestic traffic. So, yes, it's true in some of the airports we are still having problems. But this does not imply a major problem for the overall numbers of ASUR.

Okay. Thank you very much.

You're welcome.

Thank you for your questions. Next question comes from Neal Dihora from Morningstar. Please go ahead.

Hey, thanks for answering the questions. I just have two questions. One is on the domestic traffic and capacity. I guess if you look annually, you guys had like 7.4 million or 7.5 million and only a couple hundred thousand from the peak in 2008. So here is my question is did a lot of airlines sort of start going -- making connections through Cancun or -- seems like you gained a lot of share because total traffic in terms of domestic isn't as high as your share is.

The second question is just on the circling around to Riviera Maya, where are we on that? Can we still get another bid in a year or two or is that just a complete cancellation? And those are my two questions.

Okay, the question -- the first one, domestic traffic in the case of Cancun. Again, domestic traffic is -- if you see the last 12 months, and that's how I like to see the traffic, if you see that today we have the highest ever in the case of Cancun for domestic traffic. In the case of the Riviera Maya, you're saying that -- you're asking about the airport. We don't have any information about it. Nothing has been said by the authorities.

Okay, thanks.

You're welcome.

Thank you for your question. Next question comes from Francisco Suarez from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, Adolfo. Congrats on your results. A question related with discretionary CapEx, if I may. How much do you think you might be spending? And more important, can you actually share with us your overall strategy to invest in convenience stores and those operations that are directly operated by you? And what might be the case for overall CapEx for this year on those activities?

Okay, so, your question is just CapEx for convenience stores?

Yes. And on that particular subject because it is paying off fantastically and also in other nondiscretionary -- sorry, in non-committed CapEx items that you may have for the year.

Well, I would say CapEx for convenience stores is really small. It's basically the shelves that we place in the stores and of course the equipment that we have to install, the cashier [that] development as an overall picture, it is very small in comparison with the amount that we are investing on the other side, the MXN800 million that we were mentioning as more or less a round number for CapEx this year. It's pretty small.

Got it. But any plans for expanding further your overall operations?

No, I don't --

-- other initiatives that you might be looking at the moment?

No, I don't think so. Probably will be the opposite. Probably some of the stores that we have taken is something that we will have to send back. I have information that two stores, basically Tapachula and Minatitlan, are not giving the results we are expecting. And probably we will hand this back to someone else.

Great. And what you can share with us about gross leasable area that you might have this year and what is the gross leasable area that you have at this moment, and any plans for expanding that for this year or the coming years?

You are talking about area, meaning square meters?

Yes, if possible.

No, we don't see that -- remember that our way to see the business is not just on a square meter basis. It's different. What we're going to have on square meters this year is what we are working in the expansion of Veracruz, Villahermosa, Oaxaca and Merida. But again, in the overall picture, this not represents something important.

So, I don't see the [bero] business should be square meters. My opinion is that we should be focusing in all [sense].

Got it. Okay. And if I may, any news on the new CFO? Have you had any potential candidates so far, when he might be joining ASUR?

Well, we're still working -- we are still working on that.

Okay. Thank you. Congrats, again, on your results.

Thank you.

Thank you for your question. Next question comes from Augusto Ensiki from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for taking my follow-up. Actually, I apologize because it's already been addressed. It's regarding the appeal on the amortization issue for Cancun. Do you -- did you mention an expected timeline of when that appeal -- when the ruling on the appeal might go through or actually anything related to when that -- the potential charge might come in for you guys?

Thank you for the question. Well, first place, it's important to say that we are really surprised at what we are seeing. As I said during the initial remarks, this was a key speech from the Minister of Communications and Transport when they saw shares of the three airport groups, after eight years or 10 years, it's really a surprise that someone from the Ministry of Finance is trying to say that this is not the right way to do it.

We've just been notified during the beginning of February and we are preparing today our case to present that to the court. How much time this is going to last, I don't know. It could last two, three years. That's normal procedures in Mexico. I have to say that we will ask support from the Minister of Communications and Transport to see if they can talk and discuss this with the Ministry of Finance to align the way of thinking.

And also I have to say that we are not the only case. This is also for some other airport groups. And I know that one of them has won -- or has received a final ruling in favor in one of their cases. But answering your question directly, I really don't know how much time it is going to last. Could last two, three years.

And of course, this could represent some additional cost for the Company because of the lawyers and because we will have to grant a guarantee for the amount that they're going to be claiming. Of course, this amount, if we win and if the judge says that we are right, this is something that we will have to collect from the authorities because they will be the responsibles of creating a case where there was not a case.

Understood. Great, that was very helpful. Thank you once again.

You're welcome.

(Operator Instructions). Next question comes from [Stacy Stanal] from [Time Reach]. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. I was reviewing some of the press that's been coming out of Brazil for the second round of airport bids. And I wanted to ask you if, A, you would be interested in the next round? B, if the bidding documents are out, and C, it seems that there's a suggestion, at least in the press, that the president is going to change the focus a bit so that anyone bidding on the next round of airports has to have more years of experience in the sector in actually running an airport, and would that, in fact, favor someone like you?

Well, for the moment, I'm not thinking about Brazil. It was enough for me for the moment. We will have to wait -- well, the documents have not been published. Once they are published, we will see if we go back or not. For the moment, the only thing that I can say to you is I wish the best luck for them because, as I said during my initial remarks, with the number that they have offered, I can assure that they cannot provide [30] plus return. So I hope that at least they will have this -- they will receive service. That's what I can say.

Thank you.

You're welcome.

Thank you for your question. Now I would like to hand it over to Adolfo to -- for closing remarks. Thank you.

Thank you, Juanita. And thank you for everybody to join us today on our conference call. As always, do not hesitate to contact me if you have any further questions. And thank you for being here and have a great weekend. Goodbye.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes your conference for today. You may now disconnect. Thank you for joining and have a great day. Thank you.