Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Excuse me, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience. The call will begin momentarily. Again, thank you for your patience. The call will begin momentarily.

各位女士、先生，請容許我再說一遍，感謝你們的耐心等待。通話即將開始。再次感謝您的耐心等待。通話即將開始。

Good morning. Thank you for attending the Aspen Aerogels Inc. Q3 2025 financial results call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.感謝您參加 Aspen Aerogels Inc. 2025 年第三季財務績效電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Neal Baranosky, Aspen's Senior Director, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy. Thank you. You may proceed, Mr. Baranosky.

現在，我謹將會議交給主持人尼爾·巴拉諾斯基，他是阿斯彭公司的高級總監、投資者關係和企業策略主管。謝謝。巴拉諾斯基先生，您可以繼續前進了。

Thank you, Micai. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for the Aspen Aerogels' third-quarter 2025 financial results conference call. With us today are Don Young, President and CEO; and Grant Thoele, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. The press release announcing Aspen's financial results and business developments and the slide deck that will accompany our conversation today are available on the Investors section of Aspen's website, www.aerogel.com.

謝謝你，米凱。早安，感謝各位參加 Aspen Aerogels 2025 年第三季財務業績電話會議。今天與我們在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官唐·楊，以及首席財務官兼財務主管格蘭特·索爾。公佈 Aspen 財務業績和業務發展的新聞稿以及今天我們將要討論的幻燈片可在 Aspen 網站 www.aerogel.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

During this call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures are included in the back of the slide presentation and earnings release. On today's call, management will make forward-looking statements about our expectations. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially.

在本次電話會議中，我們將提及非GAAP財務指標，包括調整後的EBITDA和調整後的淨收入。GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的調整表包含在投影片簡報和收益發布文件的背面。在今天的電話會議上，管理層將就我們的預期發表前瞻性聲明。這些聲明存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異。

These risks and uncertainties include the factors identified in our filings with the SEC. Please review the disclaimer statements on page 1 of the slide deck as the content of our call will be governed by this language. I'd also like to note that from time to time in connection with the vesting of restricted stock units and/or stock options issued under our long-term equity incentive program, we expect that our Section 16 officer will file Form 4 to report the sale and/or withholding of shares in order to cover the payment of taxes and/or the exercise price of options.

這些風險和不確定性包括我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中確定的因素。請仔細閱讀投影片第 1 頁的免責聲明，因為我們本次電話會議的內容將受其約束。我還想指出，根據我們的長期股權激勵計劃，在限制性股票單位和/或股票選擇權歸屬時，我們預計我們的第 16 條官員將不時提交 4 號表格，報告出售和/或扣留股份的情況，以便支付稅款和/或選擇權的行使價格。

Our CEO, Don Young, has established a prearranged Rule 10b5-1 plan to sell a limited number of shares for tax purposes in connection with a onetime personal real estate transaction.

我們的執行長唐楊制定了一項預先安排的 10b5-1 規則計劃，以出售有限數量的股份，用於一次性個人房地產交易的稅務目的。

I'll now turn the call over to Don. Don?

現在我將把電話交給唐。大學教師？

Thanks, Neal. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Q3 2025 earnings call. My comments will cover the introduction of two new members of the leadership team, the unsettled commercial environment for electric vehicles, an update on our energy industrial segment, a discussion of the versatility of our flexible aerogel blanket, as we target adjacent markets, the announcement of the design award from a major European automotive OEM and the beginning of the ramp for ACC, a lot to cover.

謝謝你，尼爾。各位早安。感謝您參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。我的演講將涵蓋以下內容：兩位新領導團隊成員的介紹、電動車不穩定的商業環境、我們能源工業部門的最新進展、我們面向鄰近市場時對柔性氣凝膠毯的多功能性的探討、宣布獲得一家歐洲主要汽車OEM廠商的設計獎以及ACC開始量產，內容很多。

Grant Bailey, our new CFO, will amplify these points with his comments. We look forward to your questions. At the time of our last earnings call, we announced that Grant would assume the role of CFO effective October 1. Grant joined Aspen in 2021 and has been a key architect of our corporate finance and strategy functions. He brings to the CFO position an important blend of operational depth and transactional experience.

我們的新任財務長格蘭特貝利將在他的評論中進一步闡述這些觀點。我們期待您的提問。在上次財報電話會議上，我們宣布 Grant 將於 10 月 1 日起擔任財務長一職。Grant 於 2021 年加入 Aspen，一直是公司財務和策略職能的關鍵架構師。他為財務長一職帶來了深厚的營運經驗和豐富的交易經驗。

After three years at KPMG, Grant gained experience in operations and business integration at Learfield Sports and in optimizing financial performance and capital structures during his time at Providence Equity Partners. His experience and disciplined approach will serve Aspen well as we execute the next phase of growth and value creation. I'm also pleased to welcome Glenn Deegan, our new Chief Administrative Officer. This new position for Aspen combined into a single role, the Chief Legal Officer and Chief Human Resource Officer responsibilities. Glenn brings more than 25 years of legal, HR and transactional leadership with deep experience guiding organizations through complex M&A, governance and integration initiatives.

在畢馬威會計師事務所工作三年後，格蘭特在 Learfield Sports 積累了營運和業務整合的經驗，並在 Providence Equity Partners 工作期間獲得了優化財務業績和資本結構方面的經驗。他的經驗和嚴謹的工作態度將對 Aspen 的發展大有裨益，幫助我們進入下一個成長和價值創造階段。我也很高興地歡迎格倫·迪根先生加入我們，擔任首席行政官。Aspen公司新設立的這個職位將首席法務官和首席人力資源官的職責合併為一個職位。Glenn 擁有超過 25 年的法律、人力資源和交易領導經驗，在指導組織完成複雜的併購、治理和整合計劃方面擁有豐富的經驗。

He joins Aspen from Ultra Industrial Motion Corporation, a $2 billion global leader in motion control and automation products, where he served as Chief Legal and Human Resources Officer. Glenn play a pivotal role in major strategic transactions, including Ultra's $4.95 billion acquisition by Regal Rexnord Corporation in 2023. His experience in successfully integrating companies and aligning people, culture and governance through transformational change will be invaluable. We welcome Grant and Glenn to their new positions.

他先前在 Ultra Industrial Motion Corporation 擔任首席法律和人力資源官，該公司是年營業額達 20 億美元的全球運動控制和自動化產品領導者。Glenn 在重大策略交易中發揮了關鍵作用，包括 Ultra 在 2023 年被 Regal Rexnord Corporation 以 49.5 億美元收購。他在成功整合公司、透過變革調整人員、文化和治理方面的經驗將是無價的。我們歡迎格蘭特和格倫履新。

Our core objective is to build a strong, profitable, capital-efficient business. The focus during the first three quarters of 2025 was to streamline and simplify the organization to optimize our cost structure, build resilience and drive profitability, and of course, to prepare for the rapidly changing North American EV environment. North American EV sales in Q3 were at record levels, powered by the pull forward of demand in response to pending changes to rebate incentives and regulatory standards.

我們的核心目標是打造一個強大、獲利、資本效率高的企業。2025 年前三個季度的重點是精簡組織架構，以優化成本結構，增強韌性，提高盈利能力，當然，還要為快速變化的北美電動車環境做好準備。受即將到來的退稅激勵措施和監管標準變化帶來的提前需求推動，北美電動車第三季銷售創下歷史新高。

GM grew US market share during the quarter to 16.5%, second only to Tesla. During October, however, GM shifted gears and significantly ramped down its EV production rates. We expect GM and other EV OEMs to align production rates according to consumer demand based on the new market conditions. GM has suggested that it will determine the natural demand for EVs early in 2026.

通用汽車本季在美國的市佔率成長至 16.5%，僅次於特斯拉。然而，10 月通用汽車改變了策略，大幅降低了電動車的產量。我們預計通用汽車和其他電動車製造商將根據新的市場狀況，調整生產速度以滿足消費者需求。通用汽車表示，將在 2026 年初確定電動車的自然需求。

We believe EV growth for GM and other OEMs will start again from that reset number. Despite these market headwinds, we do see brighter spots for our PyroThin thermal barrier segment. In October, we won a battery design award from a major European OEM, an account with great promise and the potential to ramp in 2027.

我們認為，通用汽車和其他汽車製造商的電動車成長將從這個重置數字開始重新。儘管面臨這些市場逆風，我們仍然看到 PyroThin 隔熱屏障領域存在一些亮點。10 月份，我們贏得了一家歐洲主要 OEM 廠商的電池設計獎，這是一個很有前途的客戶，並且有可能在 2027 年實現規模化成長。

We anticipate naming the company at the time of our next business update. In addition, we are seeing signs that another European customer, ACC, is preparing to wrap its battery cell production in 2026. As a reminder, ACC was created to serve the European EV market with high-volume, high-quality lithium-ion battery cells and is strategic to Aspen because it is owned in part by Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz, both companies important to Aspen as we seek to ramp our business in Europe in 2026 and 2027.

我們預計將在下次業務更新時公佈公司名稱。此外，我們看到有跡象表明，另一家歐洲客戶 ACC 正準備在 2026 年結束其電池生產。提醒一下，ACC 的成立是為了向歐洲電動車市場提供大批量、高品質的鋰離子電池，它對 Aspen 具有戰略意義，因為它的部分所有權歸 Stellantis 和梅賽德斯-奔馳所有，這兩家公司對 Aspen 都很重要，因為我們尋求在 2026 年和 2027 年擴大我們在歐洲的業務。

And one other brighter spot, on-shoring and near-shoring in response to shifting trade policy and geopolitics are creating advantages to companies such as Aspen who can provide high-performance, domestically produced solutions. Proximity enhances our ability to support new opportunities with our existing BEV and EI customers and is opening the door to adjacent market opportunities. An example of the latter is battery energy storage systems or BES, where two powerful shafts, one technical and one policy driven are converging to open a new opportunity for Aspen.

另一個亮點是，為了應對不斷變化的貿易政策和地緣政治，本土化和近岸化正在為像 Aspen 這樣的公司創造優勢，這些公司可以提供高性能的、國內生產的解決方案。地理位置的便利性增強了我們為現有電動車和電動車客戶提供新機會的能力，並為鄰近市場機會打開了大門。後者的一個例子是電池儲能係統（BES），其中兩個強大的支柱，一個技術支柱和一個政策支柱正在匯合，為 Aspen 開闢了一個新的機會。

To improve economics and pack more energy into the same footprint, best developers are moving to higher-density LFP designs, essentially applying EV style engineering to grid-scale storage. And by doing so, creating the same thermal propagation challenges that we have already helped the EV industry to solve. Our PyroThin thermal barrier technology with its extremely low thermal connectivity, excellent fire resistance and minimal thickness is exactly what developers need as they compress thousands of cells into a single rack or modular.

為了提高經濟效益並在相同的佔地面積內儲存更多能量，優秀的開發商正在轉向更高密度的磷酸鐵鋰電池設計，本質上是將電動汽車式的工程技術應用於電網級儲能。這樣做會造成與我們已經幫助電動車產業解決的熱傳播挑戰相同的問題。我們的 PyroThin 隔熱技術具有極低的熱連通性、優異的耐火性和最小的厚度，正是開發商在將數千個單元壓縮到單一機架或模組中時所需要的。

On the policy-driven side, domestic content rules are making local sourcing, both a supply chain preference and a financial incentive. We are working with two large advanced energy storage battery and system technology companies on near-term opportunities to supply PyroThin thermal barriers where the battery modules support the rising demand from data centers, grid infrastructure and other high reliability applications. We are also pursuing a range of high-impact electrification projects from carbon capture to pressure geothermal where asset owners are seeking low carbon solutions for site-specific power generation.

在政策驅動方面，國內含量規則使得本地採購既成為供應鏈的首選，也成為經濟誘因。我們正在與兩家大型先進儲能電池和系統技術公司合作，尋求近期供應 PyroThin 隔熱屏障的機會，以滿足資料中心、電網基礎設施和其他高可靠性應用領域日益增長的電池模組需求。我們也正在推動一系列具有重大影響的電氣化項目，從碳捕獲到壓力地熱，資產所有者正在尋求針對特定地點的低碳發電解決方案。

Again, we are well positioned to serve their thermal management needs with high-performance domestically produced solutions. Our Energy Industrial segment cannot make up for the volatile EV revenue in the near term, but we do see this segment stabilized and beginning to grow again. Our Energy Industrial revenue this year has largely consisted of baseload maintenance work. Project-oriented revenue has been lacking in 2025 after record performance in 2023 and 2024. We see activity levels, strengthening across the board and anticipate a healthy growth year for Energy Industrial in 2026.

再次強調，我們完全有能力透過國產高效能解決方案來滿足他們的散熱管理需求。短期內，我們的能源工業板塊無法彌補電動車收入的波動，但我們確實看到該板塊已經穩定下來，並開始再次成長。今年我們的能源工業收入主要來自基礎負載維護工作。繼 2023 年和 2024 年創紀錄的業績之後，2025 年專案導向收入有所下降。我們看到各領域的活動水準都在全面增強，預計 2026 年能源產業將迎來健康的成長年。

We see subsea opportunities in the backlogs of key customers that we expect will generate subsea project revenue for us in 2026. We are quoting subsea project work with potential revenue exceeding $80 million over the next three years, including $15 million to $20 million in 2026. And on the LNG side, we will supply Cryogel to the Venture Global CP2 LNG project in Cameron Parish, Louisiana during the first half of 2026.

我們看到主要客戶的積壓訂單中蘊藏著海底專案的機會，我們預計這些專案將在 2026 年為我們帶來海底專案收入。我們正在報價海底專案工作，未來三年潛在收入將超過 8,000 萬美元，其中 2026 年的收入將達到 1,500 萬至 2,000 萬美元。在液化天然氣方面，我們將於 2026 年上半年向位於路易斯安那州卡梅倫教區的 Venture Global CP2 液化天然氣項目供應 Cryogel。

Again, we anticipate a strong growth year in 2026 for the Energy Industrial segment and a return to a trajectory towards a robust $200 million Energy Industrial business in the years to come. As part of our long-term growth strategy, we are executing a disciplined initiative to diversify into markets adjacent to our Core Battery and Energy Industrial businesses.

我們再次預計，2026 年能源工業板塊將實現強勁成長，並在未來幾年內重回正軌，朝著 2 億美元的能源工業業務目標邁進。作為我們長期成長策略的一部分，我們正在執行一項有條不紊的計劃，以實現業務多元化，拓展到與我們的核心電池和能源工業業務相鄰的市場。

In addition to the battery energy storage systems and electrification opportunities described above, our team is focused on other potential adjacencies based on commercial potential, speed to market, product differentiation and the ability to leverage our existing manufacturing platform. We believe the diversify and broaden Aspen's addressable market and contribute revenue levels beginning in 2026. The initiative reinforces our commitment to innovation-driven growth and enduring shareholder value. Grant, over to you.

除了上述電池儲能係統和電氣化機會之外，我們的團隊還專注於其他潛在的相關領域，這些領域基於商業潛力、上市速度、產品差異化以及利用我們現有製造平台的能力。我們相信，從 2026 年開始，Aspen 將實現市場多元化和擴大，並貢獻收入水準。此舉措強化了我們對創新驅動成長和持久股東價值的承諾。格蘭特，接下來就交給你了。

Thanks, Don, and good morning to everyone joining us today. I plan to cover Q3 financial highlights, our Q4 and fiscal year 2025 outlook, along with the financial framework and long-term strategic positioning. Looking at slide 3. Q3 revenue landed at $73 million, a decline of $5 million or 6% quarter over quarter, driven by Thermal Barrier revenues softening 12% from Q2 to $48.7 million.

謝謝唐，也祝今天所有參加我們節目的朋友們早安。我計劃介紹第三季財務亮點、第四季和 2025 財年展望，以及財務框架和長期策略定位。請看幻燈片3。第三季營收為 7,300 萬美元，季減 500 萬美元或 6%，主要原因是隔熱材料營收較第二季下降 12% 至 4,870 萬美元。

This was partially offset by a 7% increase in Energy Industrial revenues to $24.3 million, representing a stabilization of our EI segment from the recent low in Q2.

能源工業收入成長 7% 至 2,430 萬美元，部分抵銷了上述損失，這代表著我們的 EI 部門從第二季的近期低點趨於穩定。

Gross profit of $20.8 million decreased by 18% quarter over quarter, predominantly driven by less volume to absorb fixed costs at our manufacturing facilities. Gross margin of 28.5% declined from 32.4% last quarter. We adjusted our production schedules in Q3. However, we won't see the benefit of more efficient manufacturing operation until Q4. Ultimately, lower EV volumes drove the majority of the decline in combination with increased scrap rates in preparation for ACC's volume ramp over the next few quarters. We saw this dynamic with our successful ramp of GM at the beginning of serial production.

毛利為 2,080 萬美元，較上季下降 18%，主要原因是產量減少，無法抵銷製造工廠的固定成本。毛利率從上季的32.4%下降至28.5%。我們在第三季調整了生產計劃。然而，要到第四季我們才能看到更有效率的生產營運帶來的好處。最終，電動車產量下降以及為迎接未來幾季ACC產量成長而提高的報廢率，是造成產量下降的主要原因。我們在批量生產初期成功提高通用汽車產量的過程中，就看到了這種動態。

Thermal Barrier segment gross margin was burdened by fixed costs and onetime scrap charges, resulting in 24% gross margin for the quarter down from 31% in Q2. Segment gross margin for Energy Industrial landed at 36%, in line with Q2 and above our company target of 35%. We lowered our OpEx rate, excluding onetime items from impairments and restructuring charges from $24.6 million in Q2 to $22.6 million in Q3.

隔熱材料業務的毛利率受到固定成本和一次性廢料費用的影響，導致本季毛利率為 24%，低於第二季的 31%。能源工業類股的毛利率為 36%，與第二季持平，高於該公司 35% 的目標。我們將營運支出率（不包括減損和重組費用等一次性項目）從第二季的 2,460 萬美元降至第三季的 2,260 萬美元。

We will continue to look for opportunities to streamline and simplify our operations to further reduce this run rate in the coming quarters. Adjusted EBITDA declined by $3.5 million quarter over quarter to $6.3 million in Q3. In terms of Q3 cash flow, we had a favorable working capital of $12 million due to supply chain and inventory optimization efforts, lowered CapEx spend below $10 million, opportunistically paid down $14.8 million on our revolver to lower interest expense and paid down quarterly amortization on our term loan for $6.5 million. We ended Q3 with $152.4 million in cash and equivalents.

我們將繼續尋找機會來精簡和簡化我們的運營，以便在接下來的幾季進一步降低這一運行率。第三季調整後 EBITDA 季減 350 萬美元，至 630 萬美元。就第三季現金流而言，由於供應鏈和庫存優化措施，我們擁有 1200 萬美元的有利營運資金，資本支出減少到 1000 萬美元以下，抓住機會償還了 1480 萬美元的循環貸款以降低利息支出，並償還了 650 萬美元的定期貸款季度攤銷款。第三季末，我們持有現金及現金等價物1.524億美元。

Next, let's turn to slide 4 to review our Q4 outlook. Over the past few months, the administration has removed CARB waivers and penalties for CAFE standards, and we expect similar actions regarding EPA rules. These regulatory shifts have occurred faster than originally anticipated. As a result, supply side incentives are no longer driving portions of EV production, leading consumer adoption and demand as the primary forces influencing how many vehicles reach dealer lots.

接下來，讓我們翻到第 4 張投影片，回顧一下我們第四季的展望。在過去的幾個月裡，政府取消了 CAFE 標準的 CARB 豁免和處罰，我們預計 EPA 規則也將採取類似行動。這些監管方面的轉變發生得比原先預期的要快。因此，供應側激勵措施不再是電動車生產的主要動力，消費者接受度和需求成為影響經銷商處車輛數量的主要因素。

GM and other OEMs are clearly taking decisive actions to align production with current consumer demand. workforce reductions, capacity adjustments and temporary plant closures underscore that the near-term environment remains uncertain and difficult to forecast. GM has indicated that it expects to determine the natural level of EV demand early in 2026 and is recalibrating production accordingly.

通用汽車和其他汽車製造商顯然正在採取果斷措施，使生產與當前的消費者需求保持一致。裁員、產能調整和工廠臨時關閉都表明，近期市場環境仍充滿不確定性，難以預測。通用汽車表示，預計在 2026 年初確定電動車的自然需求水平，並據此調整生產。

While this represents a meaningful step down from prior growth expectations, we believe EV volumes will begin to grow again from this lower base. For the fourth quarter, we currently expect total revenue between $40 million to $50 million. We anticipate the mix between our segments to be grounded in approximately $25 million for the Energy Industrial business with more variability in the Thermal Barrier segment. It's worth noting over the past few weeks, we've seen GM demand erode, leading to a higher degree of uncertainty.

雖然這比之前的成長預期大幅下降，但我們相信電動車銷量將從這個較低的基數開始再次成長。我們目前預計第四季總營收將在 4,000 萬美元至 5,000 萬美元之間。我們預計各業務板塊的綜合規模將以能源工業業務約 2,500 萬美元為基準，而隔熱屏障業務板塊的波動性更大。值得注意的是，在過去幾周里，我們看到通用汽車的需求下降，導致不確定性加劇。

Additionally, the mix between segments is important to overall profitability given different unit economics of each business. With $40 million to $50 million of revenues for Q4, we'd expect between negative $14 million to negative $6 million of adjusted EBITDA, respectively. Given our new Q4 outlook and the resulting impacts on liquidity, we are engaging with our lenders at MidCap for near-term covenant relief. It's worth noting we have over $150 million of cash as of September 30, representing a strong net cash position.

此外，考慮到各業務的單位經濟效益不同，各業務板塊之間的組合對整體獲利能力至關重要。預計第四季營收為 4,000 萬美元至 5,000 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 將分別為負 1,400 萬美元至負 600 萬美元。鑑於我們新的第四季度展望以及由此對流動性造成的影響，我們正在與 MidCap 的貸款方協商，以尋求近期契約豁免。值得注意的是，截至9月30日，我們擁有超過1.5億美元的現金，淨現金狀況良好。

When taking our year-to-date actuals and Q4 guide, revenue could range from $270 million to $280 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $7 million to $15 million for the year. In October, Q4 volumes declined below our previous guidance assumptions in August. It's clear that OEM reactions to a deregulated environment have accelerated beyond prior expectations. When bridging to our prior outlook, by far and above the driving factor and lower expected full year results is driven by EV market headwinds, combined with a less favorable product mix, which results in higher material costs on average for 2025.

根據我們今年迄今的實際數據和第四季指引，營收可能在 2.7 億美元至 2.8 億美元之間，全年調整後 EBITDA 為 700 萬美元至 1500 萬美元。10 月份，第四季銷量低於我們 8 月份的預期。很明顯，OEM廠商對放鬆管制環境的反應速度已經超出了先前的預期。回顧我們先前的展望，全年預期績效下降的最大驅動因素是電動車市場逆風，加上產品組合較不利，導致 2025 年平均材料成本上升。

We now believe that the fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA levels are representative of our go-forward cost structure. Several onetime items in this quarter have temporarily impacted profitability and actions have already been taken to improve our breakeven threshold. Material costs as a percentage of revenue in the second half of 2025 were slightly higher than our go-forward run rate due to shifting production between East Providence and our external manufacturing facility.

我們現在認為，第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 水準能夠代表我們未來的成本結構。本季的一些一次性項目暫時影響了獲利能力，我們已經採取措施來提高損益平衡點。由於東普羅維登斯和我們的外部製造工廠之間的生產轉移，2025 年下半年材料成本佔收入的百分比略高於我們未來的運行速度。

Projects tied to cost reductions at our manufacturing sites, primarily production optimization and yield improvements will begin to materialize in 2026 and 2027. We also expect our operating expense run rate to level out between $20 million and $22 million with additional savings opportunities tied to the implementation of our company-wide ERP system and synergies from integrating our Mexico facility. As a result, we believe we can achieve adjusted EBITDA breakeven approximately at $200 million of annual revenue with line of sight to further improvements as we move throughout 2026.

與降低我們製造基地的成本相關的項目，主要是生產優化和產量提高，將於 2026 年和 2027 年開始實現。我們還預計，隨著公司範圍內 ERP 系統的實施以及墨西哥工廠整合帶來的協同效應，我們的營運費用運行率將穩定在 2000 萬美元至 2200 萬美元之間，同時還將有額外的節省機會。因此，我們相信，在年收入達到約 2 億美元時，我們可以實現調整後 EBITDA 盈虧平衡，並且隨著我們逐步推進到 2026 年，有望取得進一步的改善。

We expect to end the year with $25 million of CapEx, excluding Plant 2 or approximately $5 million of spend in Q4. In regards to Plant 2, we continue to pursue buyers for the property and equipment. We expect equipment sales to begin trickling in within Q4 and over the next few quarters, while the building sale has a longer tail over the course of 2026.

我們預計年底資本支出將達到 2,500 萬美元，不包括 2 號工廠，即第四季支出約為 500 萬美元。關於 2 號工廠，我們仍在繼續尋找房產和設備的買家。我們預計設備銷售將在第四季及接下來的幾季開始逐步成長，而建築物銷售的尾聲將持續到 2026 年。

Turning to slide 5. As we look ahead to 2026, I'd like to outline how our financials could perform at various volume levels within our core business. It won't come as a surprise that there remains a wide range of potential outcomes on the EV thermal barrier segment. While we have stronger confidence that the Energy Industrial segment will return to growth next year. We continue to pull every operational and financial lever available to ensure the business remains stable and efficient.

翻到第5張投影片。展望 2026 年，我想概述我們核心業務在不同業務量水準下的財務表現。電動車隔熱層領域仍有多種潛在發展方向，這並不令人意外。我們更有信心認為能源工業板塊明年將恢復成長。我們將繼續運用一切可用的營運和財務手段，以確保業務保持穩定高效。

The EV landscape continues to evolve. And while we use IHS forecast and customer provided volumes as key inputs, we apply our own insights, scenario analysis and appropriate discounts to those forecasts to model and plan for various production scenarios. When we think about GM, their recent public statements suggest that the volumes we're seeing in Q4 likely represent a floor for production levels based on their current EV portfolio.

電動車市場格局仍在不斷演變。雖然我們使用 IHS 預測和客戶提供的產量作為關鍵輸入，但我們會應用我們自己的見解、情境分析和適當的折扣來對這些預測進行建模和規劃，以應對各種生產情境。當我們想到通用汽車時，他們最近的公開聲明表明，我們在第四季度看到的產量可能代表了基於其當前電動車產品組合的最低產量水平。

GM has been clear that the EV demand will be soft through early 2026 as the market resets to a more natural level of consumer demand following the end of incentives. Importantly, GM is better positioned than many OEMs. They've gained US market share, maintained pricing discipline with fewer incentives and remained highly committed to EVs as a strategic priority. From this lower base, we expect GM's production to rebuild as demand normalizes and the company continues to expand its EV portfolio.

通用汽車已經明確表示，隨著激勵措施的結束，市場將恢復到更自然的消費者需求水平，因此到 2026 年初，電動車的需求將保持疲軟。重要的是，通用汽車比許多汽車製造商更有優勢。他們獲得了美國市場份額，在減少激勵措施的情況下保持了價格紀律，並將電動車作為戰略重點，並始終高度致力於電動車的發展。我們預計，隨著需求恢復正常，通用汽車的產量將從目前的較低水平開始恢復，同時該公司也將繼續擴大其電動車產品組合。

The IHS current forecast for 2026 has GM delivering approximately 175,000 LTM vehicles. Assuming $10 million to $15 million of other OEM revenues, we could potentially generate approximately $135 million of revenue at full IHS volumes for the Thermal Barrier segment. However, given the degree of uncertainty that we see in the market today, it would be prudent to take a significant discount to IHS volumes. As a reminder, with our expected cost structure in 2026 and after crossing the breakeven adjusted EBITDA threshold at $200 million revenue, we expect to drop approximately $0.50 to $0.60 to the bottom line on every dollar of additional revenue.

IHS 目前對 2026 年的預測是，通用汽車將交付約 175,000 輛 LTM 汽車。假設其他 OEM 收入為 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元，那麼在 IHS 全面投產的情況下，熱障材料領域可能會產生約 1.35 億美元的收入。然而，鑑於目前市場的不確定性，對 IHS 的銷售給予大幅折扣是明智之舉。提醒一下，根據我們預計 2026 年的成本結構，在收入超過 2 億美元盈虧平衡調整後 EBITDA 門檻後，我們預計每增加 1 美元的收入，淨利潤將下降約 0.50 至 0.60 美元。

With operating cash flow tied to revenue and growth levels, we project a total of $45 million in cash outflows from investing and financing activities or approximately $10 million of CapEx and $35 million of debt payments in 2026. From where we sit today, we believe we can maintain over $100 million of cash on our balance sheet at the end of 2026 when assuming breakeven adjusted EBITDA. Looking even further out at our core markets, 2027 introduces European EV customers ramping up, along with continued healthy growth for the Energy Industrial business.

由於營運現金流與收入和成長水準掛鉤，我們預計 2026 年投資和融資活動將產生 4,500 萬美元的現金流出，其中約 1,000 萬美元為資本支出，3,500 萬美元為債務支付。就我們目前的情況來看，假設調整後的 EBITDA 達到損益平衡，我們相信到 2026 年底，我們的資產負債表上可以維持超過 1 億美元的現金。展望更遠的未來，展望我們的核心市場，2027 年歐洲電動車客戶數量將大幅成長，能源工業業務也將持續健康成長。

We believe we can return to growth in 2027, supported by awarded European EV customer forecast that have the potential to generate over $150 million of revenue in 2027 at full volumes. Along with GM growing off its 2026 EV reset, continued growth in Energy Industrial and untapped adjacency revenue.

我們相信，在獲得歐洲電動車客戶預測的支持下，我們可以在 2027 年恢復成長，這些客戶在 2027 年滿載生產的情況下，有可能產生超過 1.5 億美元的收入。隨著通用汽車在 2026 年電動車戰略調整的基礎上實現成長，能源工業領域持續成長，以及尚未開發的鄰近領域收入的成長。

Lastly, I'll build on Don's comments around our strategy going forward. As we look to Aspen today, our focus is on unlocking the full potential of our aerogel technology, the foundation of our differentiation. It's a platform that has high barriers to entry, a deep IP moat and strong sustainability tailwinds. Over the past few years, we've aggressively pursued capturing the EV opportunity, and in doing so, have greatly improved our technology, manufacturing capabilities and footprint.

最後，我將補充唐的評論，談談我們未來的策略。今天，當我們展望阿斯彭時，我們的重點是釋放我們氣凝膠技術的全部潛力，這是我們差異化的基礎。這是一個准入門檻高、智慧財產權護城河深厚、永續發展前景廣闊的平台。過去幾年，我們積極尋求抓住電動車發展機遇，並在此過程中大幅提高了我們的技術、製造能力和業務規模。

In addition to strengthening our core markets and optimizing our capital structure, we are laser-focused on expanding Aspen's strategic optionality to accelerate growth, unlocking new verticals and long-term value creation. Our aerogel products currently serve two core markets with a highly specialized value proposition, but we see a much larger opportunity ahead that helps drive our strategy, including expanding our aerogel technology platform into adjacent markets and enhancing aerogel performance with complementary specialty materials.

除了加強核心市場和優化資本結構外，我們還專注於擴大 Aspen 的策略選擇範圍，以加速成長、開拓新的垂直領域和創造長期價值。我們的氣凝膠產品目前服務於兩個核心市場，具有高度專業化的價值主張，但我們看到未來有更大的機會，這有助於推動我們的策略，包括將我們的氣凝膠技術平台擴展到相鄰市場，並透過互補的特種材料增強氣凝膠的性能。

In order to execute this strategy, we'll explore strategic partnerships, pursue organic and inorganic opportunities by canvassing the landscape of specialty materials companies and taken all of the above approach to broaden our portfolio offering with high-value products at accretive margins. We believe our aerogel technology platform provides a springboard into new addressable markets within Specialty Materials that share our focus on lightweight, thermal management and sustainability.

為了執行這項策略，我們將探索策略合作夥伴關係，透過考察特種材料公司市場，尋求有機和無機成長機會，並採取上述所有方法，以高價值產品和增值利潤來擴大我們的產品組合。我們相信，我們的氣凝膠技術平台能夠為我們進入特殊材料領域的新目標市場提供跳板，這些市場與我們一樣，都專注於輕量化、熱管理和永續性。

By broadening our capabilities with a specialty materials platform anchored on aerogel, we opened the door to solving mission-critical problems for our customers.

透過以氣凝膠為基礎的特種材料平台，我們拓展了自身能力，從而為客戶解決關鍵任務問題打開了大門。

Think energy storage materials, advanced composites and thermal interface and fire protection systems, all solutions that expand our relevance across diversified markets. As I step into the CFO role and look ahead, my focus is on ensuring that our strategy is matched by disciplined execution and thoughtful capital allocation. I'm challenging the organization to think boldly, act strategically and relentlessly pursue new opportunities that expand our impact and deliver long-term value for Aspen and its shareholders. Don, over to you.

想想儲能材料、先進複合材料、熱界面和防火系統，所有這些解決方案都能擴大我們在多元化市場的相關性。當我走馬上任財務長一職並展望未來時，我的重點是確保我們的策略能夠得到嚴謹的執行和周全的資本配置。我鼓勵組織大膽思考，採取策略行動，堅持不懈地追求新的機遇，以擴大我們的影響力，並為 Aspen 及其股東創造長期價值。唐，該你了。

Thank you, Grant. Before we move to Q&A, I would like to reinforce a couple of key points. These are clearly trying times for EV OEMs and companies such as Aspen. We have been forced to change our expectations after three years of significant revenue growth and margin expansion. We continue to believe that electric vehicles have a significant role to play and that EV demand will reset at a lower market share and then resume a growth trajectory.

謝謝你，格蘭特。在進入問答環節之前，我想再次強調幾個關鍵點。對於電動車原始設備製造商和像 Aspen 這樣的公司來說，這顯然是一個充滿挑戰的時期。經過三年顯著的營收成長和利潤率擴張，我們不得不改變預期。我們仍然相信電動車將發揮重要作用，電動車的需求將從較低的市場份額重新開始，然後恢復成長軌跡。

Our Energy Industrial business is well positioned for a policy approach in the United States that promotes an intensified focus on energy and power generation. We anticipate that the segment will have a strong revenue growth trajectory in 2026 and beyond. The work on adjacent markets leverages our valuable technology and products as we diversify and expand our end markets.

我們的能源工業業務已做好充分準備，迎接美國加強對能源和電力生產的政策方針。我們預計該業務板塊在 2026 年及以後將保持強勁的營收成長動能。在拓展和擴大終端市場的同時，我們在鄰近市場的工作也充分利用了我們寶貴的技術和產品。

Overall, we have designed Aspen with a lean operating cost structure in order to generate substantial profits from incremental growth.

總體而言，我們為 Aspen 設計了精簡的營運成本結構，以便從增量成長中獲得可觀的利潤。

Operator, let's turn to Q&A, please.

接線員，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Stine, Craig-Hallum.

（操作說明）埃里克·斯泰恩，克雷格-哈勒姆。

So first, I guess I just want to touch on the EBITDA breakeven the $200 million, the level that you are looking to get to. If I do the math there, it looks like you would be targeting kind of mid-20s gross margin, given where your OpEx -- you think your OpEx goes to and if you're expecting EV weakness likely, even though it will maybe improve, but weakness in the first half, I would think that the margins suffer a fair amount. And so I'm just trying to figure out how -- what are the puts and takes to get to that level where you can be breakeven at $50 million? I mean, are there additional steps to be had or maybe thoughts there would be great.

首先，我想談談 EBITDA 損益平衡點 2 億美元，也就是你們想要達到的水平。如果我以這個比例計算，考慮到你的營運支出情況，你的目標毛利率應該在 20% 左右——你認為你的營運支出會流向哪裡，而且如果你預計企業價值可能會疲軟，即使情況可能會有所改善，但上半年仍然疲軟，我認為利潤率會受到相當大的影響。所以，我只是想弄清楚──要達到5,000萬美元的損益平衡點，需要採取哪些措施？我的意思是，還有其他步驟可以採取嗎？或者大家有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, sure. I'll take that one, Eric. I think overall, we've taken decisive action over the course of 2025 and have significantly reduced our overall fixed cost run rate. I think that some of those changes are also materializing over the next few quarters. There's certain -- in terms of production capacity, production yield improvements that are planned projects that have a targeted kind of return that will happen within the first half of next year.

當然可以。我來做那個吧，艾瑞克。我認為總體而言，我們在 2025 年採取了果斷行動，並大幅降低了整體固定成本運作率。我認為其中一些變化也將在未來幾季逐步顯現。就生產能力和生產效率的提高而言，有一些計劃項目旨在實現預期的回報，這些項目將在明年上半年實現。

And overall, the mix is very important to that breakeven level. That is kind of a disclaimer on it. The more thermal barrier, the better in terms of achieving that breakeven EBITDA threshold sooner. But overall, we see your overall thought on the first half of the year, EV being soft is kind of directionally in line with we're thinking it is.

總的來說，這種組合對於達到損益平衡點非常重要。這算是對它的免責聲明吧。隔熱層越厚，就越有利於更快達到損益平衡點 EBITDA 閾值。但總的來說，我們認為您對今年上半年電動車市場疲軟的看法，與我們的預期方向基本一致。

So I mean it sounds like this is not -- I mean, you're not trying to communicate that this is a run rate you think you're at or a level you're at entering the year. It sounds like this is more of a second half level that you get to because some of the things that you had planned and that hopefully, we're going to have some impact here in late '25 or more now '26 events? .

所以我的意思是，聽起來這不像——我的意思是，你並不是想表達你認為你目前的勝率或是你年初的水平。聽起來這更像是下半年的計劃，因為你之前計劃的一些事情，希望我們能在 2025 年底或更晚的時候，在 2026 年的活動中產生一些影響？。

Yes. And I think that they will materialize in the beginning of 2026. There's just some of the -- more of the production kind of yield improvements and projects that are tied to the plant that will be kind of that mid 2026 time frame.

是的。我認為它們將在 2026 年初成為現實。還有一些——更多是生產方面的產量提升和與工廠相關的項目，這些項目將在 2026 年中期完成。

Sorry, Eric, I was just going to add. You know that we've taken actions through the year, including in the third quarter. And I think those will be more clearly reflected as we get into Q1 of next year as they filter their way through the income statement.

抱歉，艾瑞克，我正要補充。你知道我們今年採取了一系列行動，包括第三季。我認為，隨著這些影響逐步反映在損益表中，它們將在明年第一季得到更清晰的體現。

Okay. Got it. But no -- it's nothing -- you're not necessarily signaling additional steps. I suppose you could take those if needed, but not it's really kind of what's already in motion that gets you to that level.

好的。知道了。但並非如此——這沒什麼——你不一定意味著要採取進一步行動。我想如果需要的話，你可以採取那些措施，但真正讓你達到那個水平的是已經發生的事情。

Correct, correct.

正確，正確。

Maybe just Energy Industrial, I mean, clearly more optimistic on that. It's been, I think, a pretty weak first three quarters here. But when you're talking about a resumption of growth and back on the trajectory to $200 million, just curious based on what you see the LNG project for CP2, some of the other things? I mean, what -- any thoughts on magnitude of what that growth could be in '26 again to get back to those higher levels?

或許只有能源工業領域是這樣，我的意思是，顯然我對這個領域比較樂觀。我認為，前三個季度球隊的表現相當疲軟。但是，當您談到恢復成長並重回 2 億美元的軌道時，我很好奇，您如何看待 CP2 的液化天然氣項目以及其他一些項目？我的意思是，對於2026年能否再次實現如此大幅度的成長，從而恢復到之前的較高水平，大家有什麼想法嗎？

Well, we've been producing here in the mid-20s basically off of our baseload maintenance work and very, very little project work through the period. We do believe that we have an opportunity in the Subsea business to be in that $15 million range in 2026. Again, a big uptick from this year. But really, if you look out over the course of five-plus years, that's a fairly normal level for us. Of course, we had big record years, $25 million, $35 million in 2023 and 2024.

嗯，我們這段時間以來，產量基本上維持在 20 多萬英鎊，主要依靠基礎維護工作，專案工作非常少。我們相信，到 2026 年，我們在海底業務方面有機會達到 1,500 萬美元的營收水準。與今年相比，又出現了大幅成長。但實際上，如果你從五年多的時間跨度來看，這對我們來說是一個相當正常的水平。當然，我們也曾經有過創紀錄的年份，2023 年和 2024 年分別達到了 2,500 萬美元和 3,500 萬美元。

So that's definitely part of it. We also just -- we're seeing the LNG project that I referred to and other activities give us a nice little boost there. So I think you will see contribution from projects. I also think we have the ability to grow that baseload maintenance work.

所以這肯定是其中一部分原因。我們也看到——我提到的液化天然氣項目和其他活動也為我們帶來了不錯的推動作用。所以我認為你會看到來自各個項目的貢獻。我認為我們也有能力擴大這部分基礎維護工作量。

There have not been a lot of turnarounds in refineries this year to date. They're operating at pretty large spreads, and I think they've been reluctant to do some of the normal maintenance, but that is inevitable, and we think we'll see that as we enter into 2026. So a combination of our baseload maintenance growth and add some project activity on top of that, and we feel like as we call it a healthy growth year for 2026.

今年迄今為止，煉油廠的檢修並不多。他們的交易價差相當大，我認為他們一直不願意進行一些正常的維護工作，但這不可避免，我們認為進入 2026 年後就會看到這種情況。因此，結合我們的基本維護成長，再加上一些專案活動，我們認為 2026 年將是一個健康的成長年。

Okay. Maybe just last one for me. I mean so many questions to ask about the EV space. But maybe just clarity on, you mentioned as much as you can provide on the battery manufacturing coming out of Europe. Stellantis, Mercedes, what kind of contribution could that potentially make in '26?

好的。也許這是我的最後一個了。我的意思是，關於電動車領域，有太多問題需要問。但或許只是想澄清一下，您已經盡可能地介紹了歐洲電池製造的情況。Stellantis、Mercedes，這在 2026 年可能會做出什麼樣的貢獻？

Overall, we're seeing the European OEMs would be between that kind of $10 million to $15 million range in 2026. We're obviously taking a discount to the volumes that they have provided. And so that could fluctuate. We're bullish on the European EV market kind of compared to the North American market as of right now.

總體而言，我們看到歐洲汽車製造商在 2026 年的收入將在 1,000 萬美元到 1,500 萬美元之間。顯然，我們接受的折扣是低於他們提供的銷量。所以這種情況可能會波動。目前，我們比較看好歐洲電動車市場，相較之下，北美市場則相對遜色一些。

(Operator Instructions) Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.

（操作說明）Colin Rusch，奧本海默。

Do you have a sense of where channel inventories are at this point with the pull-through in the September quarter and kind of initial sales in October with GM. Does it still feel like you need to do some channel correction here? Or do you feel like the channel is fully cleaned out?

您能否大致了解一下，隨著9月季度的銷售成長以及10月通用汽車的初步銷售，目前通路庫存狀況如何？你仍然覺得需要對頻道進行一些校正嗎？或者你覺得這個通道已經完全清理乾淨了嗎？

We've made progress, Colin, for sure, and moving products through distribution. Again, it's not perfectly transparent for us. But we know that it has improved markedly from earlier this year.

科林，我們確實取得了進展，產品正在順利地透過分銷管道流通。再次強調，這對我們來說並不完全透明。但我們知道，與今年早些時候相比，情況已經有了顯著改善。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the stationary storage side, obviously, there's a very, very large pool of demand that's happening there and the duty cycles that those systems are going to engage in are intensifying and diversifying. I want to just get a sense of what you guys are seeing from a demand perspective and the design perspective on that because that looks like an opportunity that may emerge sooner than later to be honest.

好的。那很有幫助。而在固定儲存方面，顯然存在著非常非常大的需求，而這些系統將要參與的工作週期正在加劇和多樣化。我想了解你們從需求和設計角度看到的情況，因為說實話，這看起來可能是個很快就會出現的機會。

Colin, it's been an interesting push for us as we think about what we refer to as these adjacent kinds of markets a little off to the side of our core market, which we consider this to be exactly that. And what has been beneficial to us is not only the domestic supply incentive aspect of it. But at a technical level, we have seen the battery cells move to a higher-density LFP format. Again, as I said in my prepared comments, really using sort of EV engineering at grid level scale. And that feeds very neatly into our thermal barrier work.

科林，這對我們來說是一次有趣的推動，因為我們一直在思考我們所說的這些與我們的核心市場略有不同的鄰近市場，而我們認為這正是我們的核心市場。而對我們有利的不僅是國內供應激勵面。但從技術層面來看，我們已經看到電池單元朝向更高密度的磷酸鐵鋰電池形式發展。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，真正要在電網級規模上運用電動車工程技術。這與我們的隔熱材料研發工作非常契合。

And we have made substantial progress in working with two large companies to date. And we believe that we will have this part of our business contribute to our 2026 revenue in a notable way.

迄今為止，我們在與兩家大型公司的合作中取得了實質進展。我們相信，這部分業務將在 2026 年為我們的收入做出顯著貢獻。

Ryan Pfingst, B. Riley.

Ryan Pfingst，B. Riley。

I'm bouncing around Colin's apologies if this was already covered. But is the new European OEM award, is that a platform award? And could you give some sense of the potential volumes that we could see there in '27 or maybe '28 when it's more fully ramped.

我正在四處打聽科林的道歉，如果這個問題之前已經討論過了。但是，這個新的歐洲OEM獎項，是一個平台獎項嗎？能否大致估算一下，當產能全面提升後，我們在 2027 年或 2028 年可能會看到的潛在產量是多少？

Yes. I'll take that one, Ryan. I think that it's not necessarily a platform. I believe it's kind of a model approach. And it will be in 2027.

是的。我來做這個，瑞恩。我認為它未必是一個平台。我認為這是一種典範方法。那是在2027年。

And the magnitude is reflected and kind of that $150 million European OEM revenue that I said kind of in my script here, that is at full volumes, and it's inclusive of this award. And so the discount to that, even taking $50 million to $75 million of that would be really, really beneficial to our P&L, considering we already have the fixed cost and the manufacturing in place to achieve that revenue level.

而其規模也體現在我剛才在稿子裡提到的 1.5 億美元的歐洲 OEM 收入中，這是滿載運轉時的收入，並且包含了這項獎勵。因此，即使從中減去 5000 萬到 7500 萬美元，考慮到我們已經有了實現該收入水平所需的固定成本和生產能力，這對我們的損益表來說也將非常非常有利。

Appreciate that. And then shifting gears. Battery storage sounds like an exciting adjacent market opportunity. Curious what some of the other applications are that you're looking at? Is there anything in the data center world that could be interesting for your technology just given the insulation aspect?

謝謝。然後換檔。電池儲能聽起來像是令人興奮的鄰近市場機會。很好奇你還在關注哪些其他應用程式？考慮到絕緣方面，資料中心領域是否有任何技術對您的技術有吸引力？

Well, Ryan, these battery modules are supporting data centers that are coming out of it. These are site-specific energy storage systems. And so we are participating at it from that angle at this point. You asked about -- I believe you were asking a bit about other potential adjacencies. And look, we've got a team working on it.

瑞安，這些電池模組是為正在建造中的資料中心提供支援的。這些是針對特定地點的儲能係統。所以，目前我們是從這個角度參與其中的。你問到了——我相信你是在問一些關於其他潛在鄰近區域的問題。你看，我們已經安排了一個團隊負責這項工作。

You're very familiar with the building and construction market that we had pursued earlier. And that's one of the businesses that we want to have just the right partner for. And we believe that we can have that contribute to our revenue and again, diversify our markets. We built that into a multimillion dollar business back in the late teens, and we are planning to resume that as well, just as another example.

你對我們之前涉足的建築市場非常熟悉。而這正是我們希望找到最合適的合作夥伴的業務之一。我們相信這可以為我們的收入做出貢獻，並再次實現市場多元化。我們在20世紀10年代末期將其發展成為一項價值數百萬美元的業務，我們計劃恢復這項業務，這只是另一個例子。

David Anderson, Barclays.

大衛安德森，巴克萊銀行。

I was trying to get a little bit better handle on kind of where you see kind of overall GM to include bolt in there, kind of where the numbers look like they could bottom out in the first quarter just in terms of the overall volumes of vehicles. I'm looking at the IHS numbers, which just seen just completely wrong. I mean it doesn't make any sense to me of what they're showing. In fact, they actually raised their numbers on '26 this past quarter.

我當時想更了解通用汽車（包括Bolt）的整體情況，看看從整體銷售來看，這些數字是否會在第一季觸底反彈。我正在查看IHS的數據，但這些數據似乎完全錯誤。我的意思是，他們展示的內容我完全看不懂。事實上，他們上個季度比 26 歲那年提高了數字。

So I'm trying to understand, I almost have to kind of push that aside. Where do you think we kind of bottom? I know they're kind of guiding like 40,000 cars in kind of 4Q. But realistically, where do you think we've bottomed in the first quarter? And how much could you see that growth throughout the year?

所以，我試著理解這件事，但我幾乎不得不把它放在一邊。你覺得我們算是最底層嗎？我知道他們正在引導大約 4 萬輛汽車進入第四季度。但實際上，你認為我們在第一季觸底反彈到了哪裡？那麼，在這一年中，您能看到多少成長呢？

Look, it's definitely an uncertain moment in time. I mean I'm a little reluctant to try to give an exact number. We do discount the IHS numbers in our own planning. We take other inputs as well, including from our customers themselves. And we try to triangulate really around those kind of numbers.

你看，這的確是一個充滿不確定性的時期。我的意思是，我不太想給出一個確切的數字。我們在製定計劃時會忽略IHS的數據。我們也會採納其他意見，包括來自客戶本身的意見。我們試圖圍繞這些數字進行三角測量。

So Dave, I'm just reluctant to project at this point what we think GM is going to do in Q1.

所以戴夫，我現在不太願意預測通用汽車在第一季會做什麼。

And I think just to add to that, David, is it?

我想補充一點，大衛，是嗎？

Sorry, go ahead.

抱歉，請繼續。

No, no, no. I was going to say if you still think that first quarter would be the bottom, is that the right way directionally to think about it, at least? .

不，不，不。我本來想說，如果你仍然認為第一季是谷底，那麼至少從方向上看，這種思考方式是否正確？。

Well, we think somewhere here in Q4, Q1 will -- and GM has said this, that they expect to let me say now where they are from a demand point of view in this new environment in early 2026. And so that leads me to believe that Q4, Q1 is clearly the bottom, especially after the demand pull forward that people experienced in August and September, leading into the October 1 day.

我們認為，在第四季或第一季——通用汽車也說過——他們預計在 2026 年初，我就可以告訴我，在這種新環境下，他們的需求如何了。因此，我認為第四季度和第一季顯然是底部，尤其是在人們經歷了 8 月和 9 月的需求提前拉動之後，一直持續到 10 月 1 日。

That makes a lot of sense. I'm just curious, as you start building on the European side, the design of the batteries in terms of your Thermal Barrier and how that fits in there in terms of, say, revenue per unit. How does that look in Europe versus the US? Is it the same? Is it a little less, a little more?

這很有道理。我只是好奇，隨著你們開始在歐洲進行建設，電池的設計，特別是你們的熱障設計，以及它如何影響單位收入等等。這種情況在歐洲和美國有何不同？是一樣的嗎？是少一點，還是多一點？

How should we think about that as you build out that side of the business?

在您拓展這部分業務時，我們該如何考慮這個問題？

Yes. Most of the European OEMs are prismatic. And kind of the CPV on that has historically been between kind of that $250 to $350 million mark. So obviously, different than (inaudible).

是的。大多數歐洲OEM廠商都採用稜柱形設計。而該節目的每次觀看費用（CPV）歷來都在 2.5 億至 3.5 億美元之間。所以很明顯，與…不同（聽不清楚）

Okay. And then, Don, I want to go back to the battery storage. A few years ago, you guys were talking about getting the battery architecture side of using some of your technology and what you've used to build aerogels, look at some of the -- I believe it was on the cathode side that you were looking to add into. Is any -- the discussion you're having today, is any of that part of it? Or are you just talking about the thermal barrier part.

好的。然後，唐，我想回到電池儲存部分。幾年前，你們曾討論過將你們的一些技術，以及你們用來製造氣凝膠的技術，應用到電池架構方面，看看——我相信你們當時是想在陰極方面進行一些改進。你們今天討論的內容，是否包含其中的任何一部分？還是你只是在說隔熱層部分？

And I was wondering if you could also dig into that a little bit more on the battery surge. I've never heard of thermal runaway being an issue. In fact, I never heard about thermal runway to sort of talking to you. But I haven't heard that doing an issue in like the larger battery storage side because I always thought it was part of the cycle, cycling up and down, and maybe that's what's happening here. If you could kind of dig into that a little bit about kind of where you fit in there?

我還想請您再深入研究一下電池浪湧問題。我從未聽說過熱失控是個問題。事實上，我之前從未聽說過熱氣流跑道，所以我才跟你聊這個。但我沒聽說過這會對更大的電池儲存造成問題，因為我一直認為這是循環的一部分，上下循環，也許這就是這裡發生的事情。如果你能稍微深入探討一下你在其中扮演的角色就好了？

Because I was surprised to hear about that as sort of a new side of the story.

因為我聽到這件事時感到很驚訝，這算是故事的新一面。

Yes. These are akin to our PyroThin thermal barriers, Dave. And what is changing, I think, from a technology point of view, is that they are moving to higher density cells, and that is creating concern around thermal propagation or thermal runaway, which we address in slowing the propagation and controlling that. There's also some policy aspect to this as well, which these projects have incentives to have domestic supply. And again, we contribute to that as well.

是的。戴夫，這些和我們的 PyroThin 隔熱層類似。我認為，從技術角度來看，正在改變的是，他們正在轉向更高密度的電池，這引發了人們對熱傳播或熱失控的擔憂，而我們透過減緩傳播速度和控制熱失控來解決這個問題。這其中也存在一些政策因素，即這些項目有激勵措施來確保國內供應。而我們對此也負有責任。

So it's really a combination of our technology and that those policy changes or incentives, I guess, I would say, that are benefiting us in this space. So we're making these materials, we're really expert in helping them design around our materials, and there are -- they are trying to get as much density and as many cells into a limited amount of space as they can. And again, that suits us very well.

所以，這實際上是我們的技術與政策變化或激勵措施相結合的結果，我想，正是這些因素使我們在這個領域受益。所以我們正在製造這些材料，我們非常擅長幫助他們圍繞我們的材料進行設計，而且他們正在努力在有限的空間內獲得盡可能高的密度和盡可能多的單元格。而且，這正合我們心意。

I think the only thing I'd add to that is that we have -- we already have the infrastructure in place to deliver that for that entire opportunity, right? It's very -- it's like-for-like with our current thermal barriers. And so we already have the production, the capabilities and really it's kind of tooling to get that. So I think that's a key point that there's not a kind of capital investment required to kind of get to this opportunity.

我覺得我唯一要補充的是，我們已經具備了實現這一目標的全部基礎設施，對吧？它與我們目前的隔熱層非常相似。所以我們已經具備了生產能力，現在真正需要的只是實現這些目標的工具。所以我認為關鍵在於，獲得這個機會並不需要任何資本投資。

Leanne Hayden, Canaccord Genuity.

Leanne Hayden，Canaccord Genuity。

Just to start, I'm curious given lower just given lower EV demand levels, how do you think about leveraging capacity out of your Rhode Island facility versus outsourcing to your external manufacturing partner?

首先，我很好奇，鑑於電動車需求水平較低，您如何看待利用羅德島工廠的產能，而不是外包給外部製造合作夥伴？

That's a good question. I think that, really, this is on -- this comes down to a regional basis, right? We want to do what's best for allocating profits accordingly between the production facilities. As of right now, we have capacity we can use in both our East Providence plant and our external manufacturing partner. And it just comes down to whether it's domestic or international, we have the capabilities at both facilities to kind of deliver on the demand.

這是個好問題。我認為這實際上取決於地區因素，對吧？我們希望在各個生產設施之間合理分配利潤，做到最好。就目前而言，我們在東普羅維登斯工廠和外部製造合作夥伴處都有可用的產能。歸根究底，無論是國內還是國際市場，我們兩個工廠都具備滿足需求的能力。

Got it. Okay. And I noticed you're targeting decreasing CapEx into the fourth quarter and into next year. Curious how long you think you can maintain these lower levels?

知道了。好的。我注意到你們計劃在第四季和明年減少資本支出。我很想知道你認為自己能維持這些較低的水平多久？

I think that the one kind of caveat to that is there are certain programs that we are quoting right now that could require a little bit more capital investment, akin to kind of getting our -- kind of our automated equipment down in Mexico. But it's not -- we're not building a new plant right now. And so when we think about CapEx, it is maintaining our assets and making sure that there is efficient and run as efficient as possible. And so we're going to be very selective. Obviously, cash is king.

我認為需要注意的是，我們現在提到的某些項目可能需要更多的資金投入，類似於把我們的自動化設備運送到墨西哥。但事實並非如此——我們現在並沒有在建造新工廠。因此，當我們考慮資本支出時，就是維護我們的資產，並確保高效運轉，盡可能地提高效率。因此，我們會非常謹慎地進行篩選。顯然，現金為王。

And so we're going to have -- any capital investment is going to be tied to a return that is reviewed by myself and my team with a business case and make sure that we're allocating capital accordingly.

因此，任何資本投資都將與回報掛鉤，我和我的團隊將根據商業案例審查回報，並確保我們相應地分配資本。

At this time, I would like to pass the call back over to Mr. Baranowski for any further remarks.

此時，我想把電話轉回給巴拉諾夫斯基先生，請他再發表一些看法。

Actually, I will take it. Thank you, operator. This is Don. We appreciate your interest in Aspen Aerogels and look forward to reporting our fourth quarter results to you on February 12. Be well. Have a good day. Thank you.

實際上，我會接受的。謝謝接線生。這是唐。我們感謝您對 Aspen Aerogels 的關注，並期待在 2 月 12 日向您報告我們的第四季度業績。祝您健康。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

Thank you all. This now concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation, and you may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝大家。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開線路了。