AdvanSix Inc (ASIX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the AdvanSix Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎來到 AdvanSix 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Adam Kessel, VP, Investor Relations and Treasurer.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 Adam Kessel。

Thank you, Andrew. Good morning, and welcome to AdvanSix's fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. With me here today are President and CEO, Erin Kane; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Michael Preston. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at investors.advansix.com.

謝謝你，安德魯。早上好，歡迎來到 AdvanSix 的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官艾琳·凱恩 (Erin Kane)；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Michael Preston。此電話會議和網絡廣播，包括任何非 GAAP 對賬，可在我們的網站 investors.advansix.com 上獲取。

Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our business as we see it today. Those elements can change and the actual results could differ materially from those projected, and we ask that you consider them in that light. We refer you to the forward-looking statements included in our press release and earnings presentation. In addition, we identify the principle risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K as further updated in subsequent filings with the SEC.

請注意，本演示文稿的內容包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。這些要素可能會發生變化，實際結果可能與預期結果存在重大差異，我們請您從這個角度考慮它們。我們建議您參閱我們的新聞稿和收益報告中包含的前瞻性陳述。此外，我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中確定了影響我們業績的主要風險和不確定性，包括我們在隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進一步更新的 10-K 表格年度報告。

This morning we will review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022 and share our outlook for our key product lines and end markets. Finally, we'll leave time for your questions at the end.

今天上午，我們將回顧第四季度和 2022 年全年的財務業績，並分享我們對主要產品線和終端市場的展望。最後，我們將在最後留出時間回答您的問題。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to AdvanSix's President and CEO, Erin Kane.

因此，我將把電話轉給 AdvanSix 的總裁兼首席執行官 Erin Kane。

Thanks, Adam, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your continued interest in AdvanSix. As you saw in our press release, AdvanSix delivered record annual sales, earnings and cash flow performance in 2022, reflecting strong commercial execution. This builds on our track record of performance with earnings growth for the third consecutive year.

謝謝，亞當，大家早上好。感謝您加入我們，感謝您對 AdvanSix 的持續關注。正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，AdvanSix 在 2022 年實現了創紀錄的年度銷售額、收益和現金流表現，反映出強大的商業執行力。這建立在我們連續第三年盈利增長的業績記錄之上。

Now let me share a few highlights before Mike covers the details of our financials in a moment. We continue to benefit from our diversified portfolio and integrated, efficient and cost advantaged business model. In the fourth quarter, our strong commercial performance helped to offset pockets of soft end market demand, customer destocking and operational challenges. Cash flow generation continued to be robust to close out the year, supporting disciplined and value-accretive capital deployment.

在邁克稍後介紹我們的財務細節之前，讓我先分享一些要點。我們繼續受益於我們多元化的產品組合和集成、高效且具有成本優勢的商業模式。在第四季度，我們強勁的商業業績幫助抵消了軟終端市場需求、客戶去庫存和運營挑戰的影響。年末現金流產生繼續強勁，支持有紀律和增值的資本部署。

In 2022, we enhanced our capital deployment with the acquisition of U.S. Amines and an increase in return of cash to shareholders through share repurchases and an increased dividend, while further reducing debt. Our Board of Directors has approved an additional $75 million share repurchase authorization, reinforcing the flexibility we've built into our capital allocation strategy.

2022 年，我們通過收購 U.S. Amines 加強了資本配置，並通過股票回購和增加股息增加了對股東的現金回報，同時進一步減少了債務。我們的董事會已批准額外的 7500 萬美元股票回購授權，加強了我們在資本配置戰略中建立的靈活性。

We've also had several exciting recognitions recently. I am pleased to announce that we continued to be recognized for our strong corporate governance and focus on sustainability. AdvanSix was recently awarded its second consecutive Platinum Rating for Corporate Social Responsibility from Eco Vadis. This continues to rank us among the top 1% of all companies assessed. In addition, the National Association of Corporate Directors, New Jersey Chapter, has recognized AdvanSix as a Public Company Board of the Year. Leading with transparency and accountability enables us to deliver better results for our stakeholders, while driving our long-term strategies forward.

我們最近還獲得了一些令人興奮的認可。我很高興地宣布，我們繼續以強有力的公司治理和對可持續發展的關注而獲得認可。 AdvanSix 最近連續第二次獲得 Eco Vadis 頒發的企業社會責任白金評級。這繼續使我們躋身所有受評估公司的前 1%。此外，全國公司董事協會新澤西州分會已將 AdvanSix 評為年度上市公司董事會。以透明和問責制為主導，使我們能夠為利益相關者提供更好的結果，同時推動我們的長期戰略向前發展。

Now looking to 2023, we believe that we are well positioned for another year of differentiated performance supported by a diverse product portfolio, continued strong agricultural and fertilizer industry fundamentals and the resilience of our business model. Roughly 1/3 of our portfolio is in the agricultural sector, including ag chemicals. And our position in this attractive market has extended even further through our acquisitions of U.S. Amines as well as the packaged ammonium sulfate business, CIS, and organic investments to expand our high-valued granular ammonium sulfate.

現在展望 2023 年，我們相信，在多樣化的產品組合、持續強勁的農業和化肥行業基本面以及我們的商業模式的彈性的支持下，我們已經做好準備迎接又一年的差異化業績。我們大約 1/3 的投資組合屬於農業領域，包括農用化學品。通過收購 U.S. Amines 以及包裝硫酸銨業務、CIS 和有機投資以擴大我們的高價值顆粒硫酸銨，我們在這個有吸引力的市場中的地位進一步擴大。

While we do anticipate the challenges of an uncertain environment and expect demand weakness in several market segments within our nylon and chemical intermediate product lines, we remain confident in our demonstrated ability to execute and perform through various macroeconomic cycles. We have structurally improved the earnings power of this business and our competitive advantage will support us running disproportionately higher plant production rates in 2023 to complement our strong commercial performance. Our healthy balance sheet will also serve us well and continues to support our ability to deploy capital and maximize shareholder value.

雖然我們確實預見到不確定環境的挑戰，並預計我們的尼龍和化學中間產品線中的幾個細分市場需求疲軟，但我們仍然對我們在各種宏觀經濟周期中表現出的執行和執行能力充滿信心。我們已經從結構上提高了該業務的盈利能力，我們的競爭優勢將支持我們在 2023 年以不成比例的方式提高工廠生產率，以補充我們強勁的商業業績。我們健康的資產負債表也將為我們提供良好的服務，並繼續支持我們部署資本和最大化股東價值的能力。

With that, I'll turn it over to Mike to discuss the financial details of the quarter.

有了這個，我會把它交給邁克來討論本季度的財務細節。

Thanks, Erin, and good morning. I'm now on Slide 4 where I'll provide a summary of the full year 2022 financial results.

謝謝，艾琳，早上好。我現在在幻燈片 4 上，我將在其中提供 2022 年全年財務業績的摘要。

As Erin pointed out, it was terrific performance across the board as commercial -- strong commercial execution more than offset volume declines and raw material inflation, resulting in significant top and bottom line growth. Sales of $1.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $308 million, adjusted earnings per share of $6.28 and free cash flow of $184 million, all represented record annual performance. We've now increased earnings for three consecutive years and believe this represents differentiated performance versus our peers.

正如 Erin 指出的那樣，這是全面的出色商業表現——強大的商業執行力不僅抵消了銷量下降和原材料價格上漲，還導致了收入和利潤的顯著增長。銷售額為 19 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.08 億美元，調整後的每股收益為 6.28 美元，自由現金流為 1.84 億美元，年度業績均創歷史新高。我們現在已經連續三年增加收益，並且相信這代表了我們與同行的差異化表現。

Let's turn to Slide 5 to recap the fourth quarter results. Sales of $404 million decreased approximately 5% in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by a 15% decline in volume. Pockets of soft end market demand and customer destocking contributed to the volume decline. Pricing was favorable by 6%, comprised of an increase in market base pricing of 10%, primarily driven by higher ammonium sulfate pricing. This was partially offset by a 4% decline in raw material pass-through pricing following a net cost decrease in benzene and propylene. The acquisition of U.S. Amines added approximately 4% of sales as well.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 5 來回顧一下第四季度的結果。第四季度銷售額為 4.04 億美元，下降約 5%，主要原因是銷量下降 15%。軟終端市場需求和客戶去庫存導致銷量下降。定價有利 6%，其中市場基礎定價增加 10%，主要受硫酸銨定價上漲的推動。這部分被苯和丙烯淨成本下降後原材料轉嫁價格下降 4% 所抵消。收購 U.S. Amines 也增加了約 4% 的銷售額。

Adjusted EBITDA was $67 million. I will highlight the key year-over-year variances on the next slide. Adjusted earnings per share was $1.27, up 44% versus the prior year. And finally, free cash flow reached $41 million, up 194% versus the prior year. Cash flow from operations of $70 million increased $36 million, primarily due to higher net income. Capital expenditures of $28 million in the quarter increased $9 million versus the prior year.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 6700 萬美元。我將在下一張幻燈片中強調關鍵的同比差異。調整後每股收益為 1.27 美元，比上年增長 44%。最後，自由現金流達到 4100 萬美元，比上一年增長 194%。 7000 萬美元的運營現金流增加了 3600 萬美元，這主要是由於淨收入增加。本季度的資本支出為 2800 萬美元，比去年同期增加了 900 萬美元。

Let's turn to Slide 6. Here we highlight a few of the key drivers of our fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA performance year-over-year. Pricing of raw materials was a $44 million benefit. Tracking our key variable margin drivers, ammonium sulfate on a net price over natural gas and sulfur basis, remained positive year-over-year, reflecting the strong underlying ag environment as well as our ability to drive our sulfur nutrient value proposition.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 6。在這裡，我們重點介紹了我們第四季度調整後 EBITDA 業績同比增長的一些主要驅動因素。原材料定價帶來了 4400 萬美元的收益。跟踪我們的主要可變利潤率驅動因素，以天然氣和硫磺為基礎的淨價硫酸銨同比保持正值，反映出強大的潛在農業環境以及我們推動我們的硫營養價值主張的能力。

Chemical intermediates price of our raw spread was positive year-over-year as well, largely reflecting acetone margin over following propylene costs. Performance across our caprolactam and nylon portfolio over our key raws was roughly flat year-over-year. Volume was approximately $26 million unfavorable in the quarter, primarily due to customer destocking and soft end market demand across some of our portfolio. We saw the most impact across our nylon and chemical intermediates product lines, particularly products serving consumer durables and building and construction end markets.

我們原料價差的化學中間體價格也同比上漲，主要反映丙酮利潤率高於後續丙烯成本。我們主要原料的己內酰胺和尼龍產品組合的表現與去年同期大致持平。本季度銷量約為 2600 萬美元，這主要是由於我們某些產品組合的客戶去庫存和軟終端市場需求。我們看到我們的尼龍和化學中間體產品線受到的影響最大，尤其是服務於耐用消費品和建築終端市場的產品。

The impact of our planned plant turnarounds was a known tailwind to our year-over-year performance as we had no turnaround activities in the fourth quarter of '22 versus approximately $80 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. As you may recall, we completed our 2022 multi-site planned plant turnaround in the third quarter of 2022.

我們計劃的工廠周轉的影響是我們同比業績的一個眾所周知的順風，因為我們在 2021 年第四季度沒有進行周轉活動，而 2021 年第四季度約為 8000 萬美元。您可能還記得，我們完成了我們的 2022 年多站點計劃工廠周轉時間為 2022 年第三季度。

Finally, we saw approximately $21 million in higher cost and plant spend driven by an increase in gas utility prices and an increase in non-raw material inflation, primarily on transportation costs. Operational performance in December in particular was impacted by extremely cold temperatures across our integrated value chain. As a result, our quarterly utilization was roughly flat to the fourth quarter of 2021 and below historical run rates for a non-outage quarter.

最後，我們看到大約 2100 萬美元的成本和工廠支出增加，原因是天然氣公用事業價格上漲和非原材料通脹增加，主要是運輸成本。尤其是 12 月份的運營業績受到了我們綜合價值鏈中極寒氣溫的影響。因此，我們的季度利用率與 2021 年第四季度大致持平，低於非停電季度的歷史運行率。

Let's turn to the next slide. On the left side of Page 7, we've highlighted our robust 2022 cash flow generation, which was primarily driven by net income of 172 and $39 million favorable impact of net working capital, including approximately $32 million of ammonium sulfate pre-buy cash advances in the fourth quarter. CapEx was approximately $89 million for the year, driven by a planned increase in maintenance and health, safety and environmental projects. I would highlight that over the last 12 months, our free cash flow yield is roughly 17% and our free cash flow conversion is 107%, which reflects a healthy cash flow generation and quality of earnings our business model delivers.

讓我們翻到下一張幻燈片。在第 7 頁的左側，我們強調了 2022 年強勁的現金流產生，這主要是由 172 美元的淨收入和 3900 萬美元的淨營運資金的有利影響推動的，其中包括約 3200 萬美元的硫酸銨預購現金墊款在第四季度。這一年的資本支出約為 8900 萬美元，這是由於計劃增加維護以及健康、安全和環境項目。我要強調的是，在過去 12 個月中，我們的自由現金流收益率約為 17%，我們的自由現金流轉換率為 107%，這反映了健康的現金流產生和我們的商業模式提供的盈利質量。

On the right side of the page, we've depicted our capital allocation since 2017. As you can see, we've enhanced our capital deployment in 2022 with the acquisition of U.S. Amines and a meaningful step-up in cash return to shareholders, all while further reducing debt levels. In 2022, we returned a combined $49 million to shareholders by way of dividends and share repurchases. Our next quarterly dividend of $0.145 per share will be made payable on March 17th for shareholders as of record date March 3rd. We are in a favorable position with our healthy balance sheet, particularly as we enter a more uncertain macro environment in 2023.

在頁面右側，我們描繪了自 2017 年以來的資本配置。如您所見，我們在 2022 年加強了資本配置，收購了 U.S. Amines 並顯著提高了對股東的現金回報，同時進一步降低債務水平。 2022 年，我們通過股息和股票回購的方式向股東返還了 4900 萬美元。我們將於 3 月 17 日向 3 月 3 日記錄日的股東支付每股 0.145 美元的下一季度股息。我們的資產負債表健康，處於有利地位，尤其是在我們進入 2023 年更加不確定的宏觀環境之際。

Now let's turn to Slide 8. We remain disciplined in our approach to investing in the business for long-term sustainable returns. We generated strong returns on invested capital and have outperformed peers, which is a testament to the earnings power created from our investments along with our operational and commercial execution. We continue to focus on improving through-cycle profitability across the business with the goal of generating higher lows and higher highs.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 8。我們在投資業務以獲得長期可持續回報的方法上保持紀律。我們的投資資本回報率很高，表現優於同行，這證明了我們的投資以及我們的運營和商業執行所創造的盈利能力。我們繼續專注於提高整個業務的全週期盈利能力，目標是創造更高的低點和更高的高點。

We expect an increase in capital expenditures in 2023, which include -- which will include a mix of critical infrastructure, other maintenance and growth and cost savings projects as well. These projects are vital for safe, sustainable and consistent long-term performance. Our growth project pipeline, amongst others, includes projects to support our multi-year goal to double earnings of the U.S. Amines business and expand our granular ammonium sulfate conversion.

我們預計 2023 年資本支出將增加，其中包括關鍵基礎設施、其他維護和增長以及成本節約項目的組合。這些項目對於安全、可持續和一致的長期績效至關重要。我們的增長項目管道，除其他外，包括支持我們的多年目標的項目，即美國胺業務的收益翻倍，並擴大我們的顆粒硫酸銨轉化率。

So with that, let me turn the call back to Erin.

因此，讓我把電話轉回給艾琳。

Thanks, Mike. I'm now on Slide 9 to discuss each of our key product lines. Starting with nylon. The global composite price raw spread remained relatively flat sequentially and year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Asia spreads, however, declined more severely as COVID lockdowns in China led to weaker demand and excess supply moving to other regions at lower prices. Textile demand declines in Asia have impacted global nylon industry supply and demand conditions. While not the significant end use for AdvanSix sales directly, textiles represents the largest nylon end use globally and are impacted by greater consuming U.S. and Europe markets, which face increased uncertainty with respect to consumer spending on goods.

謝謝，邁克。我現在在幻燈片 9 上討論我們的每個關鍵產品線。從尼龍開始。第四季度全球綜合價格原始價差環比和同比保持相對平穩。然而，由於中國的 COVID 封鎖導致需求疲軟和過剩供應以較低的價格轉移到其他地區，因此亞洲價差下降得更為嚴重。亞洲紡織需求下降影響了全球尼龍行業的供需狀況。雖然不是 AdvanSix 直接銷售的重要最終用途，但紡織品代表了全球最大的尼龍最終用途，並受到美國和歐洲市場消費量增加的影響，這些市場在消費者商品支出方面面臨越來越大的不確定性。

Now from an end market perspective in North America, the situation is quite mixed. In the fiber and filament space, where we serve our carpet customers, we've seen a slowdown through the chain with continued inventory corrections, which we expect to continue in the first half of the year. In engineered plastics, while we are expecting sequential volume improvement from the fourth quarter into 2023, the price compression out of Asia is impacting global pricing.

現在從北美終端市場的角度來看，情況相當複雜。在我們為地毯客戶提供服務的纖維和長絲領域，我們已經看到整個供應鏈放緩，庫存持續調整，我們預計今年上半年這種情況將繼續。在工程塑料方面，雖然我們預計從第四季度到 2023 年的銷量會有所改善，但亞洲以外的價格壓縮正在影響全球定價。

Now as a reminder, roughly 30% of our nylon portfolio serves this space into applications such as auto, consumer and other industrial goods. And here, we are seeing resin pricing moving at a multiple lower than the change of raw material input costs. And then as a bright spot, packaging continues to be a stable end market, and despite some inventory drawdowns at year end, remains a resilient end application for our business. We continue to focus on being a reliable North American supplier. And we'll optimize our mix, as we have in the past, to meet customer demand and navigate through these dynamics.

現在提醒一下，我們大約 30% 的尼龍產品組合服務於這一領域，用於汽車、消費品和其他工業產品等應用。在這裡，我們看到樹脂價格的變動幅度低於原材料投入成本的變動幅度。然後作為一個亮點，包裝仍然是一個穩定的終端市場，儘管年底庫存有所減少，但對我們的業務來說仍然是一個有彈性的終端應用。我們繼續專注於成為可靠的北美供應商。我們將像過去一樣優化我們的組合，以滿足客戶需求並應對這些動態。

Moving to ammonium sulfate. We've witnessed nitrogen prices come down from significantly higher levels seen earlier in 2022. Nitrogen supply availability as well as lower energy costs, particularly in Europe, have supported a reduction in nutrient pricing. While it is not uncommon to see a seasonal low in demand exiting the year, we remain confident that the resilient underlying agricultural industry fundamentals, supported by crop prices, farmer profitability, fertilizer affordability, expected planted acres and stock-to-use ratios will continue to support strong nutrient demand. And so despite some cautious buying behavior ahead of the season, we remain well positioned to serve our key customers as we move into the heart of the domestic planting season.

轉向硫酸銨。我們目睹了氮的價格從 2022 年初的顯著較高水平回落。氮供應的可用性以及較低的能源成本（尤其是在歐洲）支持了養分價格的下降。儘管今年年底出現季節性需求低迷的情況並不少見，但我們仍然相信，在農作物價格、農民盈利能力、化肥負擔能力、預期種植面積和庫存使用比的支持下，具有彈性的農業基本面將繼續存在以支持強勁的營養需求。因此，儘管在季節前出現了一些謹慎的購買行為，但隨著我們進入國內種植季節的核心，我們仍然能夠為我們的主要客戶提供服務。

And lastly, turning to chemical intermediates. Industry realized acetone prices over refinery-grade propylene costs improved year-over-year and sequentially in the fourth quarter. Propylene costs have continued to trend lower on ample supply over the last few months. While acetone demand downstream has seen some softness into the large buyer applications, we see supply is balanced to tight, supported by stable acetone imports into the U.S. and lower phenol operating rates globally on reduced demand into building and construction and other industrial applications. I'll point out here that our integrated operating model serves us well in industry dynamics like these.

最後，轉向化學中間體。行業意識到煉油級丙烯成本的丙酮價格在第四季度同比和環比有所提高。過去幾個月，由於供應充足，丙烯成本繼續走低。雖然大型買家應用下游的丙酮需求有所疲軟，但我們認為供應平衡至緊張，這得益於美國穩定的丙酮進口以及全球較低的苯酚開工率，因為建築和其他工業應用的需求減少。我要在這裡指出，我們的綜合運營模式在這些行業動態中為我們提供了很好的服務。

Now let's turn to Slide 10 to discuss our outlook. We expect performance in 2023 to once again demonstrate the resilience of our business model and our ability to navigate through the challenges of an uncertain environment. We expect favorable underlying agricultural industry fundamentals to continue. We also expect the balanced supply and demand conditions for North American acetone given lower phenol industry operating rates globally. We'll also have the potential for some tightness, particularly in the first half of 2023. We do anticipate headwinds in consumer durables and building construction end markets across our nylon and other chemical intermediates product lines. And as I shared earlier, this will have implications for both volume and price.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 10 來討論我們的展望。我們預計 2023 年的業績將再次證明我們商業模式的彈性以及我們應對不確定環境挑戰的能力。我們預計有利的潛在農業基本面將繼續存在。鑑於全球苯酚行業開工率較低，我們還預計北美丙酮的供需狀況將保持平衡。我們也有可能出現一些緊縮，特別是在 2023 年上半年。我們確實預計我們的尼龍和其他化學中間產品線的耐用消費品和建築終端市場會遇到逆風。正如我之前分享的那樣，這將對數量和價格產生影響。

Now for reference, we've shared our sales by end market exposure on the left-hand side of the page. We are a diversified chemistry company. And the range of our end market exposure helps insulate the company from significant variability in any one product line, as demonstrated by our results in several environments. Operationally, we continue our focus on safe, stable and sustainable performance, while driving less variability in utilization rates, which in turn drives our improved customer experience and higher returns for the business. Our integrated value chain and competitive cost advantage enables us to target, running our plants at those disproportionately higher rates than the industry on average.

現在供參考，我們在頁面左側按終端市場曝光度分享了我們的銷售額。我們是一家多元化的化學公司。正如我們在多種環境中的結果所證明的那樣，我們的終端市場曝光範圍有助於使公司免受任何一條產品線的顯著變化的影響。在運營方面，我們繼續專注於安全、穩定和可持續的績效，同時減少利用率的可變性，這反過來又推動我們改善客戶體驗和提高業務回報。我們的集成價值鍊和競爭性成本優勢使我們能夠以遠高於行業平均水平的速度運行我們的工廠。

For the full year 2023, we are projecting CapEx spend to be approximately $110 million to $120 million. This range reflects higher spend to support critical infrastructure improvements, other maintenance as well as additional growth and cost savings projects. We expect the pre-tax impact of planned plant turnarounds to be in the range of $20 million to $33 million in 2023, a tailwind compared to approximately $50 million for the full year 2022. And lastly, we expect our effective tax rate for the year to be approximately 24% and anticipate cash pension contributions to be approximately $0 million to $5 million, following $20 million in contributions in 2022, bringing our defined benefit plan to a nearly fully funded status.

對於 2023 年全年，我們預計資本支出約為 1.1 億至 1.2 億美元。這一範圍反映了用於支持關鍵基礎設施改進、其他維護以及額外增長和成本節約項目的更高支出。我們預計到 2023 年，計劃中的工廠檢修的稅前影響將在 2000 萬至 3300 萬美元之間，與 2022 年全年的約 5000 萬美元相比，這是一個順風。最後，我們預計我們今年的有效稅率在 2022 年繳款 2000 萬美元之後，預計現金養老金繳款約為 24%，預計現金養老金繳款約為 000 萬至 500 萬美元，使我們的固定福利計劃幾乎達到資金充足的狀態。

Let's turn to Slide 11 to wrap up before moving to Q&A. As we've shared previously, we believe that AdvanSix offers a compelling investment thesis over the short, medium and long-term. Our leading North American position and advantaged asset base, coupled with our efficient and lean business model, provide inherent competitive advantages. And we're aligned to the diverse set of end market applications. As I pointed out and reiterate again, roughly 1/3 of our portfolio is supported by exposure to strong agricultural fundamentals. We also continue to invest for long-term growth across the broader portfolio into applications such as paints and coatings, electronics and other solvents.

在進行問答之前，讓我們轉到幻燈片 11 進行總結。正如我們之前分享的那樣，我們相信 AdvanSix 在短期、中期和長期內提供了一個引人注目的投資主題。我們在北美的領先地位和優勢資產基礎，加上我們高效、精益的商業模式，提供了內在的競爭優勢。我們與各種終端市場應用保持一致。正如我再次指出並重申的那樣，我們大約 1/3 的投資組合受到強勁農業基本面的支持。我們還繼續投資於油漆和塗料、電子產品和其他溶劑等更廣泛產品組合的長期增長。

Supplementing our exposure to these diverse end use applications, we seek to enhance our sales mix through our differentiated product portfolio, which are margins that are roughly twice our average base business gross margins and also continue to make smart and disciplined investments in our assets to sustain and improve throughput and profitability. We have substantially increased the earnings power of this business with our focus on through-cycle profitability. Lastly, our enhanced capital allocation framework provides upside and optionality for further value creation. So long, we feel very good about the strategies we've implemented, which continue to support expectations for AdvanSix's long-term sustainable performance.

為了補充我們對這些不同最終用途應用程序的曝光，我們尋求通過我們差異化的產品組合來增強我們的銷售組合，這些產品組合的利潤率大約是我們平均基礎業務毛利率的兩倍，並且還繼續對我們的資產進行明智和有紀律的投資以維持並提高吞吐量和盈利能力。通過專注於整個週期的盈利能力，我們大大提高了該業務的盈利能力。最後，我們增強的資本配置框架為進一步創造價值提供了上行空間和選擇權。長期以來，我們對我們實施的戰略感到非常滿意，這些戰略繼續支持對 AdvanSix 長期可持續業績的預期。

So with that, Adam, let's move to Q&A.

因此，亞當，讓我們進入問答環節。

Andrew, please open the line for questions.

安德魯，請打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Charles Neivert with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Charles Neivert 和 Piper Sandler。

I have a quick question. In terms of the CapEx, how do I look at that across the course of the year? Is it going to be fairly evenly spread out? Is there one or two quarters that are going to be heavier than others? And then in terms of the work getting done, does any of that bring sort of increased efficiencies that might lead to maybe a small tweak in capacity or anything of that nature that comes or is it just more of long-term maintenance that has to get done to improve the existing equipment, et cetera?

我有一個快速的問題。就資本支出而言，我如何看待全年的資本支出？它會相當均勻地分佈嗎？是否有一兩個季度會比其他季度重？然後就完成的工作而言，其中任何一項都會帶來效率的提高，這可能會導致容量的小幅調整或任何類似的性質，或者只是更多的長期維護必須得到改進現有設備，等等？

Yeah, Charlie, typically, the CapEx spend run rates are heavier in the second half than the first half as we sort of ramp up here from the $90 million levels in 2022 to roughly the $110 million to $120 million in 2023. And again, some of the increase in the spend is critical infrastructure work at our sites, other repair and maintenance projects, which we've demonstrated has an effect and improves our safe and stable operations, support safe and stable operations going forward here. So that's what I would expect. So probably in the sort of 60% range in the second half, 60% to 70% second half versus first half.

是的，查理，通常情況下，下半年的資本支出運行率比上半年更高，因為我們從 2022 年的 9000 萬美元水平上升到 2023 年的大約 1.1 億至 1.2 億美元。再一次，一些支出增加的一部分用於我們站點的關鍵基礎設施工作，以及其他維修和維護項目，我們已經證明這些項目有效並改善了我們的安全和穩定運營，支持這裡的安全和穩定運營。這就是我所期望的。所以下半場可能在 60% 的範圍內，下半場與上半場相比，60% 到 70%。

And then in terms of the movement of product that you guys are seeing, meaning, I'm assuming China is exporting where they typically haven't exported because they had some excess production and they want to keep running. I mean, do you see that -- has that the cadence of that product or has that changed at all over the last, let's say, a couple of months or is it maintaining the level -- the higher level? And looking at it, going forward, do you have any idea of when things are -- might come back to, let's say, their more normal state or pre-existing?

然後就你們看到的產品流動而言，意思是，我假設中國正在出口他們通常沒有出口的地方，因為他們有一些過剩的生產並且他們想繼續運轉。我的意思是，你是否看到 - 該產品的節奏是否在過去，比方說幾個月內發生了變化，或者它是否保持水平 - 更高水平？看著它，展望未來，你是否知道事情什麼時候 - 可能會回到，比方說，他們更正常的狀態或預先存在的狀態？

Certainly, we've seen this trend. Again, it's a components of factors, as you pointed out here over the last couple of months, probably starting late Q3 through Q4 coming into the start of the year. And it's the lower -- certainly, demand in the region now impacting those trade flows. So we're also seeing not just Chinese resin, but also certainly, resin from other countries being exported into the European Union. Obviously, that started in 2022, certainly with the higher cost considerations in Europe and the pullback on their operating rates moving into South America and Mexico as well. And we've also seen downstream products, including compounded resins, all out of the Asia moving into America and Mexico. Certainly, OEMs have global footprint. So there is this pressure of how do they compete and how -- what is the consideration against the collective set of overseas assets.

當然，我們已經看到了這種趨勢。同樣，正如你在過去幾個月在這裡指出的那樣，它是因素的組成部分，可能從第三季度末到第四季度開始進入今年年初。而且它是較低的 - 當然，該地區的需求現在正在影響這些貿易流量。因此，我們不僅看到中國樹脂，而且肯定還有其他國家的樹脂出口到歐盟。顯然，這是從 2022 年開始的，當然是出於對歐洲成本較高的考慮，以及他們在南美和墨西哥的開工率下降。我們還看到包括複合樹脂在內的下游產品全部從亞洲轉移到美國和墨西哥。當然，原始設備製造商的足跡遍布全球。因此，存在著他們如何競爭以及如何競爭的壓力 - 對集體海外資產的考慮是什麼。

So certainly, we're watching for the rebound, certainly a recovery in the region obviously to pull their volumes back up. You have low operating rates starting to be seen in -- outside of China. They're about 50%. So hopefully that will contribute as well. So I think it will certainly be a first half consideration how long it moves into that. Certainly, there's contracted volume here for us, but there's also freely negotiated and spot-oriented products as well. But again, we see this predominantly in that engineered plastic space. And certainly, freight as well just is another component of factors. Freight rates dropped dramatically in the back half of the year and sort of making transport, which may have been -- would have impacted sort of landed cost has moderated here as well.

所以當然，我們正在等待反彈，當然是該地區的複蘇顯然會拉動他們的交易量。在中國以外的地區開始出現低開工率。他們大約是50%。所以希望這也會有所貢獻。所以我認為上半年肯定會考慮它會持續多長時間。當然，這裡有我們的合同量，但也有自由談判和現貨導向的產品。但同樣，我們主要在工程塑料空間中看到這一點。當然，運費也是因素的另一個組成部分。運費在今年下半年急劇下降，某種程度上可能會影響到陸成本的運輸在這裡也有所緩和。

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Vincent Anderson with Stifel.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Vincent Anderson。

You made a point to come out and say a couple of times that you'll be running the plants very hard next year, harder than this year and that's kind of despite this demand outlook. In the past, that's involved things like spot export sales, but you've also mentioned, over the last couple of years, an improved U.S. market share in nylon specifically. And you also have a balance sheet that can handle greater inventory builds, if you needed to lean on that. So I'm just wondering how your commercial strategy may look different in this particular downturn versus what we observed in prior years?

你特意站出來說了幾次明年你會非常努力地經營這些工廠，比今年更努力，儘管有這種需求前景。過去，這涉及現貨出口銷售等事情，但你也提到，在過去幾年裡，美國尼龍市場份額有所提高。如果您需要依靠它，您還有一個資產負債表可以處理更多的庫存構建。所以我只是想知道，在這次特殊的經濟低迷時期，您的商業策略與我們前幾年觀察到的有何不同？

Certainly happy to sort of clarify and provide a little bit more color around the statement. Certainly, as we have discussed throughout sort of 2022, we didn't have as strong as an operational year as we normally would have. I mean, certainly, relative to all the strategies we have in place around, say, sustainable operations that it continues to be a core focus for us. The commentary around the returning of plant utilization rates is again ensuring that our strategies are delivering the outcomes we expect. Our integrated value chain allows us to run naturally higher rates to start.

當然很樂意澄清並為聲明提供更多色彩。當然，正如我們在整個 2022 年所討論的那樣，我們沒有像往常那樣強勁的運營年。我的意思是，當然，相對於我們圍繞可持續運營製定的所有戰略，它仍然是我們的核心重點。圍繞工廠利用率恢復的評論再次確保我們的戰略正在實現我們預期的結果。我們的綜合價值鏈使我們能夠自然地以更高的利率開始。

So let's kind of maybe break it down just quickly here. So our phenol plants are operating at least 15% higher rates than other North American players right now because of our integrated position on phenol in a market where phenol demand is off, right? So that again allows us to have the presence in the acetone market, which again, serves us well. In Hopewell, running caprolactam and ammonium sulfate, we have a (inaudible) and our confident in a strong spring season relative to demand for fertilizer. So again, it's important for us to get our performance back and to ensure that we are running to fulfill our customer demands there, obviously then -- and moving through for caprolactam and nylon.

因此，讓我們在這裡快速分解一下。因此，由於我們在苯酚需求下降的市場中對苯酚的整合地位，我們的苯酚工廠目前的運營率至少比其他北美企業高出 15%，對嗎？因此，這再次使我們能夠在丙酮市場上佔有一席之地，這再次為我們提供了良好的服務。在 Hopewell，運行己內酰胺和硫酸銨，我們有一個（聽不清）並且我們對相對於肥料需求的強勁春季有信心。因此，再次重申，重要的是我們要恢復我們的表現並確保我們正在運行以滿足客戶的需求，顯然然後 - 並通過己內酰胺和尼龍。

Here, we have two things going on. In some cases, it's a volume consideration, as I pointed out, mostly in fiber and filament. It's a pricing consideration associated with engineering plastics and packaging is remaining robust and resilient. So I think what you'll see us do is, yes, we have mix as a lever for this organization and for this enterprise. But up to and including, as you say, thinking about the right inventory builds against the right margin sales, those are all things that go into our calculus. And we have all those degrees of freedom of which to pull and operate through this market, which I think differentiates us and separates us from other competitors in the space.

在這裡，我們有兩件事正在發生。在某些情況下，正如我所指出的那樣，這是一個體積考慮因素，主要是在纖維和長絲中。這是與工程塑料和包裝相關的定價考慮因素，仍保持穩健和彈性。所以我認為你會看到我們所做的是，是的，我們將混合作為這個組織和這個企業的槓桿。但是，正如你所說，包括考慮正確的庫存建立與正確的利潤率銷售，這些都是我們計算的內容。我們擁有通過這個市場拉動和運營的所有自由度，我認為這使我們與眾不同，並將我們與該領域的其他競爭對手區分開來。

And if my math is correct, it's maybe a big if on a Friday, but it looks like your Amines' revenues were actually up sequentially in the fourth quarter. Do I have that right? And if so, can you talk about what was going on there?

如果我的計算是正確的，那麼在周五可能會很重要，但看起來您的 Amines 的收入實際上在第四季度連續增長。我有這個權利嗎？如果是這樣，你能談談那裡發生了什麼嗎？

Yeah. When you look at the third to fourth quarter sequential bridge here, you'll note that roughly a percentage point on total revenue was driven by M&A, and that's all U.S. Amines. And some of that is, they're serving -- when you look at the ag sector and the seasonality associated with that, that can impact the timing of revenues from quarter-to-quarter. So more of this was bit of a seasonal improvement and we would expect also the first half of the year to be strong as the season at a high level typically in the first half.

是的。當你在這裡查看第三季度到第四季度的連續橋樑時，你會注意到總收入的大約一個百分點是由併購驅動的，而這都是美國胺。其中一些是，他們正在服務——當你查看農業部門和與之相關的季節性時，這可能會影響每個季度的收入時間。因此，更多的是季節性改善，我們預計今年上半年也將表現強勁，因為通常在上半年處於高水平的季節。

And actually, a quick one in the similar vein. Your cash advances picked up quite a bit versus prior years, obviously, excluding last year. Can you speak to how much of that represented a higher percentage of your 2Q fertilizer volumes versus just price being higher in that dollar amount?

實際上，這是一個類似的快速方法。顯然，您的預付現金與前幾年相比有所增加，去年除外。你能說說其中有多少代表了你第二季度化肥產量的更高百分比，而只是價格更高嗎？

Sure. We can certainly provide some clarity there. So again, we did proceed with a pre-buy this year as it was in the interest of our customers and the desire to proceed with one. What we would say is that the volume for the pre-buy would be, on average, consistent with the pre-buys that we conducted in the years prior to last year. So let's call it, '19-'20 and '20-'21. The difference really being the market price being higher than that timeframe.

當然。我們當然可以在那裡提供一些清晰度。因此，我們今年確實進行了預購，因為這符合我們客戶的利益以及進行預購的願望。我們要說的是，預購的數量平均與我們在去年之前幾年進行的預購一致。所以讓我們稱之為'19-'20和'20-'21。區別實際上是市場價格高於該時間範圍。

The next question comes from David Silver with CL King.

下一個問題來自 CL King 的 David Silver。

I'm going to warn you in advance, I've had an unusual morning. So I joined the call late. So I'm going to make you repeat yourself on one or two things. But could we just start -- could you just summarize what the operational challenges were this quarter? Again, I wasn't able to listen to your opening remarks. But both in the -- if you could just characterize the source of it? And then if you quantified it at all, I'd appreciate you just summarize, including that comment as well.

我要提前警告你，我度過了一個不尋常的早晨。所以我很晚才加入電話會議。所以我要讓你重複一兩件事。但我們能否開始——您能否總結一下本季度的運營挑戰？同樣，我沒能聽清您的開場白。但兩者都在 - 如果你能描述它的來源？然後，如果您完全量化它，我將不勝感激您只是總結一下，包括該評論。

Yeah, sure, David. Happy to provide a little bit more color. Where we saw some more of the lower utilization rates relative to what we had planned was later in the quarter, particularly in December. You may recall, we hit a string of weather across the country that had some very frigid temperatures that impacted not only us, but also others in the industry. And that resulted in us running at lower rates than what we would have liked. And so that was the main driver in the quarter. And we're comfortable that we took all the necessary actions to get back up to plan here and we'll -- and do expect a better performance here as we get into the first quarter.

是的，當然，大衛。很高興提供更多顏色。與我們的計劃相比，我們看到更多的較低利用率是在本季度晚些時候，尤其是在 12 月。您可能還記得，我們在全國范圍內遭遇了一系列天氣，這些天氣的氣溫非常寒冷，不僅影響了我們，也影響了該行業的其他人。這導致我們以低於我們希望的速度運行。因此，這是本季度的主要驅動力。我們很高興我們採取了所有必要的行動來恢復這裡的計劃，並且我們會 - 並且確實希望在進入第一季度時在這裡有更好的表現。

I wanted to ask a question about U.S. Amines. So it's been -- you've owned it now for three full quarters. And I was just wondering if you could just talk about the integration, talk about the synergies you've been able to realize cost, but also revenue if there are some crossover benefits? And then with your CapEx spend for next year, the higher CapEx spend, how much, if anything, of that is really dedicated to executing on some comments you made in the past about there being some pretty straightforward expansion opportunities there?

我想問一個關於 U.S. Amines 的問題。所以它一直是——你現在已經擁有它整整三個季度了。我只是想知道你是否可以談談整合，談談你已經能夠實現成本的協同效應，如果有一些交叉收益，還有收入？然後隨著你明年的資本支出，更高的資本支出，其中有多少（如果有的話）真正用於執行你過去發表的關於那裡有一些非常直接的擴張機會的評論？

Sure, David. So yes, we're actually coming up on a year, which is terrific. And I would share that the integration has gone well. The functional integration is largely complete, which is great. It went into the plan as has sort of the last couple of quarters relative to our expectations in bringing the portfolio into our fold. So again, we're pleased with where we sit. We're on target to where we were expecting to be. And so that's important.

當然，大衛。所以是的，我們實際上即將迎來一年，這太棒了。我會分享整合進展順利。功能集成基本完成，很棒。相對於我們將投資組合納入我們的預期，它進入了計劃，就像過去幾個季度一樣。因此，我們再次對我們的坐姿感到滿意。我們的目標是我們預期的目標。所以這很重要。

One of the considerations when we announced the acquisition was really around that this was a asset or a set of assets in a business that landed itself for future growth, right? So our primary focus was to begin executing against those projects where we saw opportunity to take the multi-faceted assets that they possess, which are more pots and pans oriented to expand capability sets and begin to use them in new and expanded ways.

當我們宣布收購時，其中一個考慮因素實際上是圍繞著這是一項資產或一組資產，為未來的增長著陸，對吧？因此，我們的主要重點是開始執行那些我們看到有機會利用他們擁有的多方面資產的項目，這些資產更多的是面向擴展能力集的鍋碗瓢盆，並開始以新的和擴展的方式使用它們。

So again, the CapEx target -- again, CapEx here, the assets are not as CapEx-intensive as our other assets. So again, we have begun deploying against those projects to enable us to expand capability set. So there are number of amines that we can make, including cyclohexylamine, improving the production of isopropyl alcohol and things that are inside the views, other diamenes and we continue to have customers and potential customers reach out.

再次，資本支出目標——再次，這裡的資本支出，資產不像我們的其他資產那樣資本支出密集。因此，我們再次開始針對這些項目進行部署，以使我們能夠擴展功能集。因此，我們可以製造許多胺，包括環己胺，提高異丙醇的產量，以及其他二甲苯，我們繼續與客戶和潛在客戶接觸。

And so again, that is where we are headed to relative to the value creation of the acquisition rather than more traditional sales synergies, as you asked about. So again, on track. I think as we continue to progress, we will be able to speak more about those items. But we are where we expected to be and continue to work that plan.

因此，正如您所問的那樣，這就是我們相對於收購的價值創造而不是更傳統的銷售協同效應的發展方向。再次，走上正軌。我認為隨著我們繼續取得進展，我們將能夠更多地談論這些項目。但我們已經達到了預期的水平，並繼續執行該計劃。

And just a follow-up on that. In the past, you've talked about, I believe, $200 million or so of specialty, specialty intermediate and other specialty product revenues or differentiated revenues. Where do you think that run rate is now? And what are your -- when you think about 2023, is that going to comprise a growing percentage of your overall revenues or overall earnings power in your estimation? What is the -- what is budgeted kind of for that clutch of differentiated products?

只是對此的後續行動。過去，我相信你談到了 2 億美元左右的專業、專業中間體和其他專業產品收入或差異化收入。你認為現在的運行率在哪裡？你是什麼 - 當你想到 2023 年時，這是否會在你的估計中佔你的總收入或整體盈利能力的比例越來越大？那些差異化產品的預算是什麼？

Again, certainly, we have been proud of the growth that we have seen really over the last five years, as we pointed out in prior sessions, significant growth in our both high-purity intermediates and high-value intermediates that are going into areas of paints and coatings and electronics, expanding and continuing to grow our wire and cable and copolymer sales and nylon.

再次，當然，我們為過去五年真正看到的增長感到自豪，正如我們在前幾屆會議上指出的那樣，我們的高純度中間體和高價值中間體的顯著增長將進入以下領域油漆和塗料以及電子產品，擴大並繼續增長我們的電線電纜和共聚物銷售以及尼龍。

What I would say, David, is that while these are differentiated products, they're not necessarily immune per se to the global considerations and end market dynamics. So certainly, long-term trends for these applications are very positive. And it's why we've continued to invest and continue to think about our portfolios in these spaces. But they can have considerations for demand just like other applications. And so there's continued focus.

大衛，我要說的是，雖然這些是差異化產品，但它們本身不一定不受全球因素和終端市場動態的影響。因此，可以肯定的是，這些應用的長期趨勢是非常積極的。這就是為什麼我們繼續投資並繼續考慮我們在這些領域的投資組合。但是他們可以像其他應用程序一樣有需求的考慮。所以有持續的關注。

But for instance, semiconductors, as things kind of move down and people are thinking about purchase of goods in 2023, may perhaps be at a different rate of growth than we've seen in the past few years. Europe has also seen a slowdown in paints, coatings and sealants. So again, this is a long-term focus for us. And I think that the kind of the key takeaway is that it's not entirely immune. But again, we expect these things to recover and continue to have those long-term opportunities for us.

但是，例如，半導體，隨著情況有所下降，人們正在考慮在 2023 年購買商品，其增長率可能與我們過去幾年看到的不同。歐洲的油漆、塗料和密封劑也出現放緩。同樣，這對我們來說是一個長期的重點。我認為關鍵的一點是它並非完全免疫。但同樣，我們希望這些事情能夠恢復並繼續為我們提供這些長期機會。

I'm going to keep going if you don't mind. Everyone else had their first shot, so too bad for them. But I wanted to ask you a question about nylon, and in particular, I guess, the construction or related uses. And in North America, I guess, the residential construction side of things has slowed down a fair amount. And what do I know, but if the Fed is continuing to raise interest rates, I'm thinking that could have incremental negative effects, let's say, on mortgage rates and things like that. How do you think about marketing, I guess, or allocating your nylon capacity to different end markets? And what makes sense in a uncertain economic environment, but definitely one where residential construction seems to be on the downturn right now? I'll stop there.

如果你不介意，我會繼續下去。其他人都有他們的第一槍，對他們來說太糟糕了。但我想問你一個關於尼龍的問題，我想特別是關於建築或相關用途的問題。在北美，我猜，住宅建設方面的速度已經放緩了很多。我知道什麼，但如果美聯儲繼續提高利率，我認為這可能會對抵押貸款利率等產生越來越大的負面影響。我猜，您如何看待營銷或將您的尼龍產能分配到不同的終端市場？在一個不確定的經濟環境中，什麼是有意義的，但絕對是一個住宅建設現在似乎處於低迷時期的環境？我就到此為止吧。

No, as you said, certainly, residential construction is being hit more strongly than commercial. That said, nylon plays well into the commercial space. We would see that certainly areas like lodging, hospitality, these are areas where the consumer is still spending. We think about the latest reports, sales against leisure and hospitality and those types of services continue to be strong areas. It generates opportunities for continued remodeling and upgrades.

不，正如你所說，住宅建築受到的衝擊肯定比商業建築更大。也就是說，尼龍在商業領域發揮了很好的作用。我們會看到，住宿、招待等領域肯定是消費者仍在消費的領域。我們考慮最新的報告，休閒和酒店的銷售以及這些類型的服務仍然是強勁的領域。它為持續改造和升級創造了機會。

So there is a mix, but certainly, residential -- that can be a challenge and certainly will be most impacted by inflation, consumer confidence, interest rates. And we see that in remodeling activity coming down, as you say, housing starts and certainly in existing home sales. But again, nylon focusing on that commercial space is going to be important for us as we navigate through the collective set of dynamics for this.

因此，住宅是混合的，但肯定是混合的——這可能是一個挑戰，而且肯定會受到通貨膨脹、消費者信心和利率的最大影響。正如你所說，我們看到改造活動正在減少，房屋開工，當然還有現有房屋銷售。但同樣，專注於商業空間的尼龍對我們來說很重要，因為我們為此探索了一系列動態。

Again, our assets to produce nylon have some flexibility. So again, it's one of those degrees of freedom that we have to manage mix along the way. Customers are still buying. We want to make sure that we are supporting those key folks. Opportunities around in the space of sustainability are becoming important as well. And so interest in our post-industrial recycled grades and post consumer recycled grades are going to be important here as they are in other applications as well.

同樣，我們生產尼龍的資產具有一定的靈活性。同樣，這是我們必須一路管理混音的自由度之一。顧客還在買。我們要確保我們支持那些關鍵人物。可持續發展領域的機遇也變得越來越重要。因此，對我們的工業後回收等級和消費後回收等級的興趣在這裡將很重要，因為它們在其他應用中也是如此。

So again, at the end, we've got the flexibility of our assets. We've got sort of a mix of ensuring that we are capturing the commercial opportunities even as a smaller base residential impact on carpet may come into play. And then really ensuring that -- and we've proven this in the past that we can pull those levers and navigate through.

所以，最後，我們再次獲得了資產的靈活性。即使對地毯的基礎住宅影響較小可能會發揮作用，我們也會確保我們抓住商業機會。然後真正確保這一點——我們在過去已經證明了這一點，我們可以拉動這些槓桿並通過。

Probably nothing you haven't seen before, but interest rates have been so low recently. I don't know, I just wanted to hear you talk through that. One last question, and this has to do with Europe, and I guess, the impact of lower natural gas costs there on, I guess, global trade patterns. But I guess, natural gas has come well off of its spiking highs of the past year, year and a half. And I'm just wondering, since natural gas is used effectively for both fertilizers that could be produced in Europe as well as nylon and caprolactam, I mean, I'm just wondering, if you're seeing or anticipating any shift in trade patterns? In other words, import product that used to be exported to Europe imported into Europe may now get backed out. And just wondering, if you're seeing any of that on either nylon or in fertilizer to this point? And what might your expectations be going forward?

可能沒有什麼是你以前沒見過的，但最近利率一直很低。我不知道，我只是想听你談談。最後一個問題，這與歐洲有關，我想，那裡較低的天然氣成本對全球貿易模式的影響。但我猜想，天然氣已經從過去一年半的高點回落。我只是想知道，由於天然氣被有效地用於可在歐洲生產的肥料以及尼龍和己內酰胺，我的意思是，我只是想知道，如果你看到或預計貿易模式會發生任何變化？換句話說，以前出口到歐洲的進口產品現在進口到歐洲可能會被退回。只是想知道，到目前為止，您是否在尼龍或化肥上看到過這些？您的期望是什麼？

Certainly, as the general situation has improved in Europe, as you pointed out on the input cost improving the sentiment to produce in a number of chains, they still have sort of reduced demand in general and weakness that they're going to have to sort through in a number of end applications, as we've touched on. So it's one where -- yeah, there's -- when we think about production of nutrients, those rates have picked up primarily for certainly the regional demand there.

當然，隨著歐洲總體情況的改善，正如您所指出的投入成本改善了在許多鏈條中生產的情緒，他們總體上仍然有某種程度的需求減少和他們將不得不解決的弱點正如我們已經談到的，通過許多最終應用程序。所以這是一個地方 - 是的，當我們考慮營養素的生產時，這些比率已經回升主要是為了那裡的區域需求。

We'll see, like I said, it's -- Europe is probably 50% capacity utilization as we know it right now in caprolactam through the chain, but then this is a space where global trade is understood. And certainly, things moving in from Asia went in heavily last year as well and we'll resort themselves accordingly as we move forward. It's hard to say that there is a definitive move here one way or the other, but again, these are global markets on that sense, but certainly, they have their regional nuances as well.

我們會看到，就像我說的那樣——歐洲可能有 50% 的產能利用率，正如我們目前所知，通過鏈條在己內酰胺中，但這是一個了解全球貿易的空間。當然，去年從亞洲轉移的事情也很嚴重，我們將在前進的過程中相應地採取行動。很難說這裡有一個明確的舉動，但從這個意義上說，這些都是全球市場，但當然，它們也有區域差異。

So Europe is certainly a buyer's market for nylon. So there's going to be produced -- certainly, it's a pressure there just because you have a length of supply. And in fertilizer, you've got global buying just slowing down in general. And so again, nitrogen capacity there, we would put it at about 70%. So like anything else, this is what the world is going to have to navigate through both globally and regionally I think moving forward as we progress through the year.

因此，歐洲無疑是尼龍的買方市場。所以會有生產——當然，這是一種壓力，因為你有一定的供應時間。在肥料方面，全球購買總體上正在放緩。同樣，那裡的氮容量，我們會把它放在 70% 左右。因此，與其他任何事情一樣，這就是世界在全球和區域範圍內必須經歷的事情，我認為隨著我們在這一年的進展而前進。

Yeah. And even though natural gas prices have come down, there's still -- when you think of those prices relative to history and on a relative basis to like the U.S., they're still high, right? So that's just another consideration there, Dave.

是的。儘管天然氣價格已經下降，但仍然——當你考慮這些價格相對於歷史和相對於美國的價格時，它們仍然很高，對吧？所以這只是另一個考慮因素，戴夫。

No, there definitely still is that regional disparity, no question.

不，毫無疑問，地區差異肯定仍然存在。

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Erin Kane for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Erin Kane 作閉幕詞。

Thank you all again for your time and interest this morning. Despite the macro headwinds and operational challenges in the fourth quarter, our performance reflects the resilience of our business model and our ability to navigate and execute in a multitude of environment. Following the record performance in 2022, we look forward to continued execution of our strategic priorities in 2023 and are committed to delivering long-term value to our shareholders.

再次感謝大家今天早上的時間和興趣。儘管第四季度存在宏觀逆風和運營挑戰，但我們的業績反映了我們業務模式的彈性以及我們在多種環境中導航和執行的能力。繼 2022 年創紀錄的業績後，我們期待在 2023 年繼續執行我們的戰略重點，並致力於為股東創造長期價值。

With that, we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Stay safe and be well.

因此，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。保持安全並保持健康。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。