Ashland Inc. (ASH) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Hermione, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Ashland Incorporated fourth-quarter 2024 earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您稍候。我叫 Hermione，今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻，我謹代表主辦方歡迎各位參加 Ashland Incorporated 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn the call over to William Whitaker. Please go ahead

現在我想把電話交給 William Whitaker。請開始。

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ashland's fourth-quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call Webcast. My name is William Whitaker, Vice President of Finance and Director of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today are Guillermo Novo, Ashland's Chair and Chief Executive Officer and Kevin Willis, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

各位好，歡迎收看 Ashland 2024 會計年度第四季財報電話會議網路直播。我叫 William Whitaker，財務副總裁兼投資人關係總監。今天與我一同出席的有 Ashland 董事長兼執行長 Guillermo Novo，以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Kevin Willis。

In addition, I want to welcome our three general managers, which will cover the performance of their respective business units. Alessandra Faccin, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Life Sciences and Intermediates, Jim Minicucci, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Personal Care, Dago Caceres, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Specialty Additives.

此外，我也要歡迎我們三位事業部總經理，他們將說明各自事業單位的表現。生命科學與中間體資深副總裁兼總經理 Alessandra Faccin、個人護理資深副總裁兼總經理 Jim Minicucci、特用添加劑資深副總裁兼總經理 Dago Caceres。

Ashland released results for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, at approximately 5:00 PM Eastern Time yesterday, November 6. The news release issued last night was furnished to the SEC on a Form 8-K. During today's call, we will reference slides that are currently being webcast on our website, ashland.com, under the Investor Relations section. We encourage you to follow along with the webcast during the call.

Ashland 於昨日 11 月 6 日（美東時間）約下午 5:00 公布截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日止季度的業績。昨晚發布的新聞稿已以 Form 8-K 形式提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）。在今天的電話會議中，我們將引用目前於公司網站 ashland.com「投資人關係」專區同步網路直播的簡報投影片。我們鼓勵您在通話期間跟隨網路直播一同觀看。

Please turn to Slide 2. As a reminder, during today's call, we'll be making forward-looking statements on several matters, including our financial outlook for full year fiscal 2025. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause future results or events to differ materially from today's projections. We believe any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions that cannot assure that expectations will be achieved. Please refer to Slide 2 of the presentation for an explanation of those risks and uncertainties and the limits applicable to forward-looking statements.

請翻到投影片第 2 頁。提醒各位，在今天的電話會議中，我們將就多項事項發表前瞻性陳述，包括 2025 會計年度全年的財務展望。這些前瞻性陳述受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致未來結果或事件與今日預測存在重大差異。我們相信此類陳述係基於合理假設，但無法保證預期一定能達成。請參閱簡報投影片第 2 頁，了解相關風險與不確定性的說明，以及前瞻性陳述所適用的限制。

You can also review our most recent Form 10-K under Item 1A for a comprehensive discussion of the risk factors impacting our business.

您也可以查閱我們最新的 Form 10-K，在第 1A 項中有關於影響本公司業務之風險因素的完整討論。

Please also note that we'll be referring to certain actual and projected financial metrics of Ashland on an adjusted basis, which are non-GAAP financial measures. We will refer to these measures as adjusted and present them to supplement your understanding and assessment of the financial performance of our ongoing business. Non-GAAP measures should not be considered a substitute for or superior to financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. The most directly comparable GAAP measures as well as reconciliation of those non-GAAP measures to those GAAP measures are available on our website and in the appendix of today's slide presentation.

另請注意，我們將以調整後（adjusted）基礎引用 Ashland 的部分實際與預估財務指標，這些屬於非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們將這些衡量指標稱為「調整後」，用以補充您對我們持續經營業務財務表現的理解與評估。非 GAAP 指標不應被視為 GAAP 計算之財務指標的替代或更優指標。與之最直接可比的 GAAP 指標，以及非 GAAP 指標與 GAAP 指標之間的調節表，均可於我們網站及今日簡報投影片附錄中取得。

Please turn to Slide 4. Guillermo will begin the call this morning with an overview of Ashland's performance for the quarter and year. Next, Kevin and the general managers will provide a more detailed review of financial results for the quarter followed by a portfolio optimization update. Guillermo will then provide an update on Ashland's financial outlook and priorities for the years ahead. We will then open the line for your questions.

請翻到投影片第 4 頁。Guillermo 將於今天早上先就 Ashland 本季與本年度的表現做概述。接著，Kevin 與各事業部總經理將更詳細回顧本季財務結果，並提供投資組合最佳化的最新進展。之後 Guillermo 將更新 Ashland 的財務展望以及未來幾年的優先事項。最後我們將開放提問。

I will now turn the call over to Guillermo for his opening comments. Guillermo?

現在我把電話交給 Guillermo 進行開場致詞。Guillermo？

Thank you, William, and hello, everyone. Thank you for your interest in Ashland and for your participation today. For today, I'd like to focus my update on three topics. First, provide an overview of our Q4 performance. As you will see, market dynamics and business performance was generally in line with expectations.

謝謝你，William，各位好。感謝各位對 Ashland 的關注以及今天的參與。今天我想把更新重點放在三個主題上。第一，概述我們第四季的表現。如各位將看到的，市場動態與業務表現整體上大致符合預期。

The EBITDA performance gap for the quarter was driven by some operational challenges in one of our US. plants that impacted production and difficult market conditions for Specialty Additives in China.

本季 EBITDA 表現差距主要來自我們美國其中一座工廠的部分營運挑戰，影響了產量，以及中國特用添加劑面臨艱困的市場狀況。

Second, as we planned, Ashland has gone through a lot of portfolio changes through the year. We downsized CMC and MT industrial businesses and sold our nutraceutical business. We will share the underlying performance of our core portfolio in fiscal '24. We'll also see the impact of the portfolio reset and the actions we're taking to offset the associated earnings impact.

第二，如同我們的規劃，Ashland 在本年度經歷了許多投資組合變動。我們縮減了 CMC 與 MT 工業業務，並出售了我們的營養保健品（nutraceutical）業務。我們將分享 2024 會計年度核心投資組合的基本面表現。我們也將說明投資組合重置的影響，以及我們為抵銷相關獲利影響所採取的行動。

Third, we will provide an update on our guidance for fiscal '25. You will see known bridging items that will impact our fiscal '25 performance baseline. This includes items like improved absorption, price erosion carryover, the planned exit of our Avoca business, compensation resets and our planned restructuring and productivity actions. From this baseline, we will build our fiscal '25 outlook. As you will see, we are taking a more cautious view of developments in China.

第三，我們將更新 2025 會計年度的指引。您將看到會影響 2025 會計年度表現基準的已知銜接項目（bridging items）。這包括例如吸收率改善、價格侵蝕的遞延影響、規劃退出 Avoca 業務、薪酬重置，以及我們規劃中的重整與生產力提升行動。在此基準之上，我們將建立 2025 會計年度展望。如各位將看到的，我們對中國的發展採取更為審慎的看法。

Please turn to Slide 6. Let's start with Q4 performance. For the quarter, customer demand was generally consistent with our expectations. Our Q4 sales were up 1% from the prior year at $522 million. Inclusive of portfolio improvement actions and partial ownership of nutraceuticals, adjusted for the full quarter impact of the nutraceutical business and portfolio optimization actions, revenue increased 8%.

請翻到投影片第 6 頁。我們先從第四季表現開始。本季客戶需求整體上與我們的預期大致一致。第四季銷售額較去年同期成長 1%，達 5.22 億美元。若納入投資組合改善行動與營養保健品的部分持股，並就營養保健品業務整季影響及投資組合最佳化行動進行調整後，營收成長 8%。

Sales volume increased for the third quarter in a row, up 4% versus last year. Pricing was generally stable sequentially and down low single digits versus prior year when excluding the impact of our Intermediates business, which was down high single digits. The resulting overall outcome was sales in line with our outlook range, adjusting for nutraceuticals.

銷售量連續第三季成長，較去年增加 4%。價格按季大致持平；若排除我們中間體（Intermediates）業務的影響（該業務價格年減高個位數），整體價格較去年下降低個位數。因此，在就營養保健品調整後，銷售表現符合我們的展望區間。

Production volumes were up significantly versus last year as we compare against last year's inventory reduction actions. Overall, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased to $124 million, up 68% versus prior year. As I indicated, our major headwind for the quarter was generally isolated to our Specialty Additives business unit where manufacturing challenges related to the start-up of our HEC productivity investments resulted in under-absorption versus expectations. The investments were part of an HEC optimization strategy, and other production units at the site were not impacted.

由於與去年同期的去庫存行動相比，生產量較去年顯著增加。整體而言，本季調整後 EBITDA 提升至 1.24 億美元，較去年同期成長 68%。如我所提及，本季主要逆風大致集中在特用添加劑事業單位；與 HEC 生產力投資啟動相關的製造挑戰，導致吸收不足（under-absorption）高於預期。這些投資是 HEC 最佳化策略的一部分，該廠區其他生產單元未受影響。

Adjusted EBITDA margins increased 950 basis points, highlighting a strong margin recovery from last year. From a portfolio perspective, we completed the sale of the nutraceuticals business at the end of August, and we have also started the process of exiting our Avoca business. We repurchased shares in Q4 that will neutralize the EPS impact of a complete Pharmachem exit.

調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提升 950 個基點，顯示相較去年利潤率強勁回升。就投資組合而言，我們已於 8 月底完成營養保健品業務的出售，並已開始退出 Avoca 業務的流程。我們在第四季回購股份，將可抵銷完全退出 Pharmachem 對 EPS 的影響。

Please turn to Slide 7. Sales volumes, excluding the portfolio optimization actions, was up high single to low double digits in Life Sciences, Personal Care and Specialty Additives. Improved organic volumes were partially offset with the portfolio optimization and lower pricing in some product lines.

請翻到投影片第 7 頁。若排除投資組合最佳化行動，生命科學、個人護理與特用添加劑的銷售量均呈現高個位數至低雙位數成長。有機銷量改善部分被投資組合最佳化以及部分產品線較低的價格所抵銷。

All businesses generated strong margin recoveries versus the prior year. The largest improvements were in Specialty Additives and Intermediates, which had the biggest inventory control actions during Q4 last year. Three of our four business units delivered adjusted EBITDA margins in the high 20s with an overall margin of 24%.

所有業務相較去年均實現強勁的利潤率回升。改善幅度最大的是特用添加劑與中間體，因為這兩個業務在去年第四季採取了最大幅度的庫存控管行動。我們四個事業單位中有三個的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達到接近 20% 後段（high 20s），整體利潤率為 24%。

Looking at the businesses, Life Science, pharma business inflected positive with sales up 6%. The year-over-year headwinds from the share shift in VP&D moderated and demand for our cellulosic excipients was robust. For VP&D, we started to reestablish our share positions in Asia and Latin America. The nutraceuticals divestiture supported margins during the quarter, and we will see the full benefit in fiscal 25.

從各業務來看，生命科學業務中，製藥業務出現正向拐點，銷售成長6%。VP&D市占移轉帶來的年對年逆風已趨緩，而我們的纖維素賦形劑需求強勁。就VP&D而言，我們開始在亞洲與拉丁美洲重新建立市占地位。營養保健品業務的剝離在本季支撐了利潤率，我們將在2025財年看到完整效益。

Personal Care had another strong quarter across most markets and regions as double-digit sales growth continued. Strong demand continued in our largest Personal Care end markets, skin and hair care. Personal Care continued to generate high-quality EBITDA margins at 29% for the quarter.

個人護理在多數市場與地區再度繳出強勁的一季，雙位數銷售成長持續。我們最大的個人護理終端市場——肌膚與護髮——需求依然強勁。個人護理本季持續創造高品質的EBITDA利潤率，達29%。

For Specialty Additives, overall sales volumes continued to recover versus last year, up 5%. Demand was generally in line with expectations in most regions with some demand softening in China. Excluding low-margin portfolio optimization actions, the underlying performance of the core was strong, with sales growing mid-single digits. The regional recovery continues to be very mixed with pockets of increased price competition partially offsetting the volume recovery. Please turn to Slide 8.

在特用添加劑方面，整體銷售量相較去年持續復甦，成長5%。多數地區需求大致符合預期，但中國需求略有轉弱。若排除低利潤的產品組合優化行動，核心業務的基本表現強勁，銷售成長中個位數。各地區復甦仍相當分歧，部分區域價格競爭加劇，部分抵銷了銷量回升。請翻到第8頁。

Next, I'd like to briefly review our financial results for fiscal year '24. Organic sales volumes were up for the year, characterized by a slower start with -- a second half recovery. Portfolio optimization actions reduced lower margins, more volatile sales. There was softer pricing overall with the largest decrease in intermediates and disciplined price versus volume management in the core businesses.

接下來，我想簡要回顧我們2024財年的財務結果。全年有機銷售量上升，呈現年初較慢、下半年復甦的特徵。產品組合優化行動降低了較低利潤、波動性較高的銷售。整體定價較為疲弱，其中中間體降幅最大；而核心業務則採取嚴謹的價格與銷量管理。

Normalization of VP&D supply chains in pharma and related share shift weighted on Life Science results with the trough impact in Q2 and Q3. The overall result for the year was a sales decline of 4%.

製藥VP&D供應鏈正常化及相關市占移轉對生命科學業績造成壓力，影響低點出現在第二季與第三季。全年整體結果為銷售下滑4%。

Now shifting to profitability. Normalized production levels during the second half and raw material deflation improved overall cost position. Product mix continues to improve as we focus our strategy on high-value business lines. Last year saw an increase driven by the reset of incentive compensation after a challenging fiscal 23.

現在轉到獲利能力。下半年生產水準正常化以及原料價格下跌，改善了整體成本結構。隨著我們將策略聚焦於高價值業務線，產品組合持續改善。去年在經歷艱難的2023財年後，因獎酬激勵重設而帶動費用增加。

First half inventory control and softer pricing were offsetting headwinds, resulting in a flat year-over-year adjusted EBITDA of $459 million. Our team stayed focused on managing their business in a more intense competitive environment. We used the year to enhance our business portfolio while advancing our innovate and globalized strategy.

上半年庫存控管與較疲弱的定價形成相互抵銷的逆風，使調整後EBITDA年對年持平，為4.59億美元。在競爭更為激烈的環境中，我們的團隊仍專注於經營管理各自的業務。我們利用這一年強化業務組合，同時推進我們的創新與全球化策略。

We are also moving forward with our plans to exit the Avoca business, the last piece of the Pharmachem acquisition. In summary, the overall recovery trends remain positive, but more moderate than expected. Looking ahead, we're forecasting challenging market conditions in fiscal 25 and are executing accordingly.

我們也在推進退出Avoca業務的計畫，這是Pharmachem收購案的最後一塊。總結而言，整體復甦趨勢仍為正向，但較預期溫和。展望未來，我們預測2025財年市場環境具挑戰性，並據此執行相關措施。

We are increasingly concerned about the Chinese economy and the spillover effect into other export markets, which I will cover in more detail in our outlook. During the year, we developed plans to reduce our cost, improve productivity and strengthen our competitive position. Kevin will discuss in more detail, but ultimately, the actions will improve our competitive position in core technologies and offset the remaining portfolio optimization EBITDA impact.

我們對中國經濟以及其對其他出口市場的外溢效應日益擔憂，我將在展望中更詳細說明。在本年度，我們制定了降低成本、提升生產力並強化競爭地位的計畫。Kevin將進一步說明，但最終這些行動將提升我們在核心技術上的競爭地位，並抵銷剩餘的產品組合優化對EBITDA的影響。

And now let me turn over the call to Kevin to review our Q4 in more detail. Kevin?

接下來我把電話交給Kevin，請他更詳細回顧我們第四季的表現。Kevin？

Thank you, Guillermo, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 10.

謝謝你，Guillermo，各位早安。請翻到第10頁。

Total Ashland sales in the quarter were $522 million, up 1% compared to prior year. Year-over-year quarterly volumes increased 4% as demand recovered within the Personal Care and Specialty Additives segments. These volume gains were partially offset by unfavorable Life Sciences volumes. Sales volume in Life Sciences was lower due to the CMC and nutraceuticals optimization initiatives. Overall, portfolio optimization initiatives reduced sales by approximately $24 million or 5% during the fourth quarter, including a partial quarter of nutraceuticals.

本季Ashland總銷售額為5.22億美元，較去年同期成長1%。在個人護理與特用添加劑事業部需求復甦帶動下，季度銷量年對年增加4%。這些銷量成長部分被生命科學銷量不利所抵銷。生命科學銷量較低，主要因CMC與營養保健品的優化計畫所致。整體而言，產品組合優化計畫在第四季使銷售減少約2,400萬美元或5%，其中包含營養保健品的部分季度影響。

Regional results continue to be mixed. When compared to last year, sales trends in North America are improving. Absolute weakness in Latin America and Middle East, Africa linger, but with moderation on sequential improvement and an easing prior year. Demand was stable in Europe, but off a lower base in the prior year. Overall demand in Asia was generally stronger with a specific weakness in China coatings.

各地區表現仍然分歧。與去年相比，北美的銷售趨勢正在改善。拉丁美洲以及中東、非洲仍呈現明顯疲弱，但隨著環比改善與去年基期趨於緩和，壓力有所減輕。歐洲需求穩定，但係建立在去年較低的基期之上。亞洲整體需求普遍較強，但中國塗料市場有特定疲弱。

Gross profit margin increased 940 basis points to 34.3% in the quarter. Several factors contributed to this improvement, primarily a sales and production volume recovery as well as better mix. This was partially offset by unfavorable pricing versus raws, primarily in pharma as well as coatings.

本季毛利率上升940個基點至34.3%。多項因素促成此改善，主要包括銷售與生產量回升，以及更佳的產品組合。但部分被定價相對原料的不利所抵銷，主要出現在製藥以及塗料領域。

SG&A, R&D and intangible amortization costs were $111 million, down $5 million from the prior year, primarily reflecting reduced amortization. In total, Ashland's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $124 million, up 68% from the prior year. Ashland's adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 23.8%, up from 14.3% in the prior year. Adjusted EPS, excluding acquisition amortization for the quarter, was $1.26 per share, up 207% from the prior year quarter.

SG&A、研發以及無形資產攤銷費用為1.11億美元，較去年減少500萬美元，主要反映攤銷降低。合計而言，Ashland本季調整後EBITDA為1.24億美元，較去年同期成長68%。Ashland本季調整後EBITDA利潤率為23.8%，高於去年同期的14.3%。本季調整後每股盈餘（不含併購攤銷）為每股1.26美元，較去年同期成長207%。

Now I will turn the call over to our general managers to review the results of each of our 4 operating segments. Alessandra?

現在我將把電話交給各事業部總經理，回顧我們4個營運事業部各自的業績。Alessandra？

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Kevin。各位早安。

Please turn to Slide 11 for Life Sciences. Pharma reached an important inflection in the quarter by returning to growth. Pharma demand was resilient for our market-leading cellulosics excipients, where share gains have more than offset softer market conditions throughout the year. Our VP&D pharma business was down versus the prior year, but improved sequentially as the team executes on share gains opportunities.

生命科學部分請翻到第11頁。製藥業務在本季回到成長，達成重要的拐點。在我們具市場領先地位的纖維素賦形劑方面，製藥需求展現韌性；市占提升已足以抵銷全年較疲弱的市場環境。我們的VP&D製藥業務較去年同期下滑，但隨著團隊執行市占提升機會，環比有所改善。

Crop care demand recovered in the quarter and the comps are easing going forward. In crop care, we accelerated the rollout of our new super-wetting technology platform, launching a biodegradable, silicon-free multifunctional wetting agent for crop care formulations in September.

作物護理需求在本季回升，且未來比較基期將趨於有利。在作物護理方面，我們加速推出新的超潤濕技術平台，並於9月推出一款可生物分解、無矽的多功能潤濕劑，用於作物護理配方。

Life Sciences globalized business lines, injectables and OSD coatings both grew at double digits in the quarter. For injectables, our investments in people, production and technology continue to accelerate our growth in this highly attractive end market. As Guillermo mentioned, we divested the nutraceuticals business, which was down double digits prior to the sale. We also executed our exposure to low-margin nutrition business in the quarter.

生命科學的全球化業務線中，注射劑與口服固體劑型（OSD）包衣在本季皆呈雙位數成長。就注射劑而言，我們在人員、產能與技術上的投資持續加速我們在此高度具吸引力的終端市場的成長。如Guillermo所提，我們已剝離營養保健品業務，該業務在出售前呈雙位數下滑。本季我們也降低了對低利潤營養業務的曝險。

Overall, Life Sciences sales declined by 5% to $192 million. The portfolio optimization initiative reduced Life Sciences sales by approximately $15 million or 7% during the fourth quarter. Adjusting for the full quarter impact of nutraceuticals and portfolio optimization, sales volume grew by 13%. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 17% to $56 million, primarily reflecting higher production volumes, improved mix, partially offset by lower pricing and the nutraceutical divestiture. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 560 basis points to 29.2%.

整體而言，生命科學銷售下滑5%至1.92億美元。產品組合優化計畫在第四季使生命科學銷售減少約1,500萬美元或7%。若調整營養保健品的完整季度影響及產品組合優化因素，銷量成長13%。調整後EBITDA成長17%至5,600萬美元，主要反映生產量提高與產品組合改善，但部分被較低定價與營養保健品剝離所抵銷。調整後EBITDA利潤率上升560個基點至29.2%。

Please turn to Slide 12 for Intermediates. Total merchant and captive sales were $36 million, down 3% from the prior year quarter. Merchant sales totaled $24 million, down from $25 million in the prior year quarter, driven primarily by increased merchant BDO volumes more than offset by lower NMP pricing. Lower NMP results are primarily due to weaker demand in the electric vehicle battery end markets and delayed battery plant start-up.

請翻到投影片12，查看中間體業務。商業（merchant）與自用（captive）銷售合計為3,600萬美元，較去年同期季度下降3%。商業銷售合計為2,400萬美元，低於去年同期季度的2,500萬美元，主要因商業BDO銷量增加所帶動的成長，被較低的NMP定價所抵銷。NMP表現較弱主要是因電動車電池終端市場需求疲軟，以及電池工廠啟動延後。

Captive internal BDO sales were $12 million, flat compared to the prior year quarter. Intermediates generated adjusted EBITDA of $10 million or a 27.8% adjusted EBITDA margin compared to $3 million in the prior year. The profit increase reflects significant higher production volumes and improved mix, partially offset by lower pricing.

自用內部BDO銷售為1,200萬美元，與去年同期季度持平。中間體業務產生調整後EBITDA為1,000萬美元，或調整後EBITDA利潤率27.8%，相較去年同期為300萬美元。獲利增加反映產量顯著提高及產品組合改善，但部分被較低的定價所抵銷。

I will now turn the call over to Jim to review the results of our personal care business, Jim?

接下來我把電話交給Jim，請他回顧我們個人護理業務的結果。Jim？

Thank you, Alessandra. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Alessandra。各位早安。

Please turn to Slide 13 for Personal Care. Nearly all end markets experienced improved demand, marking the second consecutive quarter with double-digit sales growth. Skin Care and Hair Care generated the highest growth as compared to the prior year with regional strength in both Asia and North America. Asia delivered strong revenue growth driven by share gains and our positioning with local customers amidst a softer market backdrop. In addition, North America performed well versus prior year, driven by robust consumer demand.

請翻到投影片13，查看個人護理業務。幾乎所有終端市場的需求都有所改善，這是連續第二個季度實現兩位數的銷售成長。相較去年同期，肌膚護理與髮品護理成長最高，且在亞洲與北美兩地皆展現區域優勢。在較為疲弱的市場環境下，亞洲受惠於市占提升以及我們與在地客戶的布局，帶動營收強勁成長。此外，北美相較去年表現良好，主要由強勁的消費者需求所驅動。

As we shared in the last earnings call, oral care sales in the quarter were negatively impacted by key customer order patterns. For the full year, oral care sales were up mid-single digits, and we expect to lap the order timing dynamics by the second quarter of fiscal '25.

如同我們在上次法說會分享的，本季度口腔護理銷售受到主要客戶下單節奏的負面影響。就全年而言，口腔護理銷售成長中個位數百分比，我們預期到2025財年第二季將可消化（lap）訂單時點差異的影響。

The performance impact from Avoca moderated, reflecting the start of our actions to sell or exit the business. Personal Care's globalized business lines, biofunctionals and microbial protection, both grew at double digits in the quarter and delivered outsized mix impact. Microbial protection accelerated the regional asset network program and biofunctionals continued to make good progress on customer expansion efforts. Pricing was stable in the quarter with modestly favorable raw materials.

Avoca帶來的績效影響已趨於緩和，反映我們開始採取出售或退出該業務的行動。個人護理的全球化業務線——生物功能性（biofunctionals）與微生物防護（microbial protection）——本季度皆以兩位數成長，並對產品組合帶來顯著的正面影響。微生物防護加速推進區域資產網絡計畫，而生物功能性持續在客戶拓展方面取得良好進展。本季度定價保持穩定，原物料略為有利。

Personal Care sales increased by 11% to $162 million. The portfolio optimization initiatives reduced Personal Care sales by approximately $3 million or 2% during the fourth quarter. The team executed very well, delivering an adjusted EBITDA of $47 million, up 31% versus prior year, primarily reflecting the impact of higher sales and improved mix. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 430 basis points to 29%.

個人護理銷售成長11%至1.62億美元。投資組合優化措施在第四季使個人護理銷售減少約300萬美元（約2%）。團隊執行表現非常出色，調整後EBITDA達4,700萬美元，較去年同期成長31%，主要反映較高銷售與更佳產品組合的影響。調整後EBITDA利潤率提升430個基點至29%。

I will now turn the call over to Dago to review the results of our Specialty Additives business. Dago?

接下來我把電話交給Dago，請他回顧我們特用添加劑業務的結果。Dago？

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，Jim。

Please turn to Slide 14 for Specialty Additives. Overall, sales volumes were up 5% versus the prior year, led by a continued recovery in coatings and performance specialties. Low-margin construction exits and moderating energy weakness partially offset our overall sales volume growth.

請翻到投影片14，查看特用添加劑業務。整體而言，銷售量較去年同期成長5%，主要由塗料與性能特種品持續復甦所帶動。低毛利的建築業務退出，以及能源相關疲弱趨緩，部分抵銷了整體銷售量的成長。

Performance specialties demand has broadly recovered very well versus the prior year. We are seeing strength in areas such as adhesives, instant printing as well as emission control and catalysts. Our regional coatings recovery continues to be mixed with improving sales in rest of Asia and stability in North America and Europe. Overall, pricing for coatings was lower with the largest impact in China.

性能特種品的需求相較去年同期已廣泛且明顯復甦。我們在黏著劑、即時印刷，以及排放控制與觸媒等領域看到強勁表現。我們的區域塗料復甦仍呈現分化：亞洲其他地區銷售改善，而北美與歐洲維持穩定。整體而言，塗料定價較低，其中以中國的影響最大。

For the quarter, Specialty Additives sales were in line with the prior year at $144 million. The portfolio optimization initiatives reduced Specialty Additives sales by $6 million or 4% during the fourth quarter. Adjusted for portfolio optimization, sales volumes were up 9% versus the prior year.

本季度特用添加劑銷售為1.44億美元，與去年同期持平。投資組合優化措施在第四季使特用添加劑銷售減少600萬美元（約4%）。若排除投資組合優化影響，銷售量較去年同期成長9%。

Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $29 million, primarily reflecting the impact of significantly higher production volumes, partially offset by lower pricing. As Guillermo mentioned, our results were lower than expected on HEC operating issues of approximately $5 million while commissioning productivity investments. HEC production at the site has normalized starting in early October. Adjusted EBITDA margins improved nearly 1,500 basis points versus the prior year to 20.1%, including a 350 basis point headwind versus expectations from the discrete operating issues.

調整後EBITDA超過翻倍至2,900萬美元，主要反映產量顯著提高的影響，但部分被較低的定價所抵銷。如Guillermo所提及，在導入投產（commissioning）生產力投資期間，HEC營運問題造成約500萬美元的影響，使我們的結果低於預期。該據點的HEC產量自10月初起已恢復正常。調整後EBITDA利潤率較去年同期提升近1,500個基點至20.1%，其中包含因上述一次性營運問題而較預期不利的350個基點。

I will now turn the call back to Kevin. Kevin?

接下來我把電話交回給Kevin。Kevin？

Thanks, Dago. Please turn to Slide 15. Ashland continues to have a strong financial position. As of the end of September, we had cash on hand of $300 million with total available liquidity of $896 million. Our net debt was just over $1 billion and about 2.3 turns of leverage.

謝謝你，Dago。請翻到投影片15。Ashland持續維持強健的財務狀況。截至9月底，我們手上現金為3億美元，可用總流動性為8.96億美元。我們的淨負債略高於10億美元，槓桿倍數約為2.3倍。

We have no floating rate debt outstanding, no long-term debt maturities for the next two years, and all of our outstanding debt is subject to investment-grade style credit terms.

我們沒有任何浮動利率債務未償餘額，未來兩年也沒有長期債務到期，且我們所有未償債務均適用投資級風格的信用條款。

As Guillermo noted, we continue to believe Ashland's stock is an attractive use of capital and deployed $150 million in the quarter to repurchase 1.7 million shares. Our balanced and disciplined capital allocation approach has deployed roughly $1.3 billion to share repurchases during the last 4 fiscal years. We have $620 million remaining under the current share repurchase authorization.

如Guillermo所指出，我們仍認為Ashland的股票是具吸引力的資本運用方式，本季度投入1.5億美元回購170萬股。我們平衡且嚴謹的資本配置方式，在過去4個財政年度已累計投入約13億美元進行股票回購。在目前的股票回購授權下，尚餘6.2億美元可用額度。

As we've demonstrated, we will not hesitate to act when we see value in share repurchase activity. We are continuing to invest in our existing businesses and technology platforms to grow organically while pursuing our strategy of targeted bolt-on M&A opportunities focused on pharma, Personal Care and coatings.

如同我們所展現的，當我們在回購活動中看到價值時，將毫不猶豫採取行動。我們持續投資於既有業務與技術平台以推動有機成長，同時依循策略尋求聚焦於製藥、個人護理與塗料的目標型補強式併購（bolt-on M&A）機會。

Please turn to Slide 16. Ashland prudently managed production and inventory levels throughout the quarter. Our actions should better position us for more resilient performance going forward. Overall, ongoing free cash flow was healthy for the quarter and the year at $88 million and $270 million, respectively. Ongoing free cash flow for the full year grew by 24% with an ongoing free cash flow conversion of 59%, up from 47%.

請翻到投影片16。Ashland在整個季度審慎管理產量與庫存水位。我們的行動應能讓我們在未來具備更具韌性的表現基礎。整體而言，本季度與全年持續性自由現金流（ongoing free cash flow）表現健康，分別為8,800萬美元與2.7億美元。全年持續性自由現金流成長24%，持續性自由現金流轉換率為59%，高於47%。

Our progressive dividend policy remains an important part of our capital allocation strategy and is reflective of our confidence in the company's long-term profitable growth and cash flow generation outlook.

我們的漸進式股利政策仍是資本配置策略的重要一環，也反映我們對公司長期獲利成長與現金流創造前景的信心。

With that, I will now provide an update on the execute pillar of our strategic priorities and the business portfolio reset of fiscal '24 performance. Please turn to Slide 17. First, we committed to 4 portfolio actions to start the year. CMC and MC industrial optimization and consolidation, divesting nutraceuticals and rebalancing our global HEC production network. We completed 3 of the 4 and made significant progress on the fourth.

接下來，我將就我們策略優先事項中的「執行」支柱，以及2024財年績效的業務組合重置，提供最新進展。請翻到投影片17。首先，我們在年初承諾推動4項投資組合行動：CMC與MC工業端的優化與整併、出售營養保健品（nutraceuticals）、以及重新平衡我們全球HEC生產網絡。我們已完成其中3項，並在第4項上取得顯著進展。

CMC and MC industrial optimization and consolidation is complete with carryover volume impact into fiscal year 2025.

CMC與MC工業端的優化與整併已完成，其產量遞延影響將延續至2025財年。

Our latest advancement is the sale of our Nutraceuticals business to Turnspire Capital Partners. The total expected value, including net proceeds and cash tax benefits is approximately $130 million. Our actions improved margins, RONA and consistency of earnings. Adjusting fiscal 2024 for the full year impact of our actions to date reduces revenue and adjusted EBITDA by approximately $164 million and $30 million, respectively.

我們最新的進展是將營養保健品業務出售給Turnspire Capital Partners。包含淨收益與現金稅務利益在內的預期總價值約為1.3億美元。我們的行動改善了利潤率、RONA（淨資產報酬率）以及獲利的一致性。若以目前為止的行動對2024財年進行全年影響調整，營收與調整後EBITDA將分別減少約1.64億美元與3,000萬美元。

Most of the EBITDA impact is due to the lost gross profit of nutraceuticals and associated stranded costs. In summary, as we look at our 2025 planning, our starting point, which adjusts for completed portfolio changes is approximately $429 million of EBITDA.

EBITDA 的影響大多來自營養保健品業務流失的毛利以及相關的閒置成本。總結而言，在我們進行 2025 年規劃時，我們的起點（已調整已完成的投資組合變動）約為 4.29 億美元的 EBITDA。

Starting last quarter, we added another portfolio action of selling or exiting our Avoca business. Our share repurchases in Q4 offsets the full year adjusted EPS impact of our nutraceuticals divestiture and the future exit of Avoca. We have eliminated approximately $50 million in stranded costs to date and will offset the remaining $30 million EBITDA impact.

從上一季開始，我們新增了另一項投資組合行動，即出售或退出我們的 Avoca 業務。我們在第四季的庫藏股回購，抵銷了營養保健品剝離以及未來退出 Avoca 對全年調整後 EPS 的完整影響。截至目前，我們已消除約 5,000 萬美元的閒置成本，並將抵銷剩餘 3,000 萬美元的 EBITDA 影響。

Please turn to Slide 18. To this end, we are initiating a $30 million restructuring plan with an expected impact of $15 million in fiscal '25. We are also advancing a significant manufacturing productivity initiative within our HEC and VP&D networks. Our target is $60 million of annual savings with $5 million in fiscal '25, ramping significantly in fiscal '26 and beyond. Overall, we continue to expect our portfolio optimization efforts to be EBITDA neutral, and these initiatives go well beyond that to improve our overall performance.

請翻到第 18 頁投影片。為此，我們啟動一項 3,000 萬美元的重整計畫，預期在 2025 財年帶來 1,500 萬美元的影響。我們也正在 HEC 與 VP&D 網路內推進一項重要的製造生產力提升計畫。我們的目標是每年節省 6,000 萬美元，其中 2025 財年為 500 萬美元，並在 2026 財年及之後大幅加速。整體而言，我們仍預期投資組合最佳化的努力對 EBITDA 為中性，而這些舉措更進一步提升整體表現。

I'll now turn the call back over to Guillermo to discuss fiscal '25 outlook and priorities. Guillermo?

接下來我把電話交回給 Guillermo，請他說明 2025 財年的展望與優先事項。Guillermo？

Thanks, Kevin, and please turn to Slide 20. As we look out to fiscal '25, overall uncertainty remains high with changing -- macro dynamics potentially having very different impacts on our industry and markets. While changes always create opportunities and risks, given the high level of uncertainty, we feel it's prudent to take a more conservative outlook and focus on building resilience to minimize risk and capitalize on opportunities.

謝謝你，Kevin，請翻到第 20 頁投影片。展望 2025 財年，整體不確定性仍然很高，變動中的宏觀動態可能對我們的產業與市場造成非常不同的影響。雖然變化總是帶來機會與風險，但鑑於高度不確定性，我們認為採取較保守的展望並聚焦於建立韌性，以降低風險並把握機會，是較為審慎的作法。

Some of the known dynamics impacting the global economy include elevated but moderating inflation, mixed demand recovery and uncertain policy transitions. As a result, we have very different regional expectations. In the US., we expect consumer segments to remain strong and see potential upside from a strengthening construction and real estate market.

影響全球經濟的一些已知動態包括：通膨仍高但正在趨緩、需求復甦不一，以及政策轉換的不確定性。因此，我們對各地區的預期差異很大。在美國，我們預期消費者相關的終端市場仍將強勁，並看見建築與房地產市場走強所帶來的潛在上行空間。

We expect Europe to remain stable off a low base. Risk in the region stems from geopolitical dynamics, structural manufacturing challenges and lower consumer confidence. We are assuming a meaningful downturn in China. Uncertainty remains very high due to the oversupply, a distressed property market and waning consumer confidence. These factors impact our view of supply-demand balances locally and in other export markets.

我們預期歐洲將在低基期上維持穩定。該地區的風險來自地緣政治動態、製造業結構性挑戰以及較低的消費者信心。我們假設中國將出現明顯下行。由於供給過剩、房地產市場承壓以及消費者信心走弱，不確定性仍然非常高。這些因素影響我們對當地以及其他出口市場供需平衡的看法。

As a result, our assessment of the overall macroeconomic environment suggests muted demand and increased competitive intensity. We recognize that this view may be cautious, but we feel that it's a prudent perspective for our planning. We have taken actions to position Ashland to perform in a more uncertain environment. We have a strong balance sheet and cash flow, which will afford a disciplined, balanced approach to capital allocation.

因此，我們對整體宏觀經濟環境的評估顯示需求偏弱、競爭強度上升。我們理解這樣的觀點可能偏保守，但我們認為這是規劃時較為審慎的視角。我們已採取行動，使 Ashland 能在更不確定的環境中仍有良好表現。我們擁有強健的資產負債表與現金流，將支持我們在資本配置上採取有紀律且均衡的方法。

Our core markets are focused on serving resilient customer-focused end markets. The recent portfolio actions will reduce our business volatility. We are taking actions to drive several high-impact self-help opportunities to improve our cost position, strengthen our competitive position and drive results. We are well positioned to manage through a prolonged slowdown in China.

我們的核心市場聚焦於服務具韌性、以客戶為導向的終端市場。近期的投資組合行動將降低我們業務的波動性。我們正採取行動推動多項高影響力的自助式機會，以改善成本結構、強化競爭地位並帶動成果。我們已做好準備，能在中國長期放緩的情況下有效因應。

Sales in China represent 10% of the company. Our largest exposure is in the coatings business line. Most of our coatings activities in China are driven by local supply from our Nanjing HEC plant and local towing operations. Our HEC improvement activities are globally focused and will enable us to rebalance our global supply network as needed.

中國的銷售額約占公司 10%。我們最大的曝險在塗料業務線。我們在中國的大多數塗料相關活動由南京 HEC 工廠的在地供應以及本地牽引作業所驅動。我們的 HEC 改善活動以全球為重點，並將使我們能在需要時重新平衡全球供應網路。

Please turn to Slide 21. In line with my earlier comments, we are taking a more cautious position on our financial outlook for fiscal '25. Given our portfolio optimization actions, our starting point for the year is our portfolio reset for 2024 and known bridging items that will impact our fiscal '25 baseline. The math for our fiscal '25 baseline is as follows.

請翻到第 21 頁投影片。呼應我先前的評論，我們對 2025 財年的財務展望採取更審慎的立場。鑑於我們的投資組合最佳化行動，我們年度的起點是 2024 年的投資組合重置，以及將影響 2025 財年基準的已知銜接項目。我們 2025 財年基準的計算如下。

First, we start with the fiscal '24 EBITDA business portfolio reset of $429 million. For Kevin's comments, this is based on our fiscal '24 actual results of $459 million, less $30 million impact from the nutraceutical loss gross profit and portfolio optimization stranded costs.

第一，我們以 2024 財年 EBITDA 的業務投資組合重置 4.29 億美元為起點。依 Kevin 的說明，這是以 2024 財年實際結果 4.59 億美元為基礎，扣除營養保健品流失毛利及投資組合最佳化閒置成本所造成的 3,000 萬美元影響。

Second, we adjust for known changes impacting our fiscal '25 performance. We add back about $45 million of fixed cost absorption and add about $20 million of expected restructuring and productivity improvement realization. We then adjust for $20 million of negative price carryover and $15 million of EBITDA erosion from the Avoca business. Lastly, we expect $10 million of reset variable incentive compensation. This puts our fiscal '25 baseline at $449 million.

第二，我們針對已知變動調整其對 2025 財年表現的影響。我們加回約 4,500 萬美元的固定成本吸收，並加回約 2,000 萬美元的預期重整與生產力改善落地效益。接著，我們調整 2,000 萬美元的負面價格結轉，以及 Avoca 業務造成的 1,500 萬美元 EBITDA 侵蝕。最後，我們預期變動獎酬（獎金）重置 1,000 萬美元。這使我們的 2025 財年基準為 4.49 億美元。

From this number, we then build our outlook for fiscal '24. Factors impacting our outlook include, we're starting the year in a stable position. Our outlook does not reflect potential changes to the current economic policy. Overall volumes are expected to increase mid-single digits. Our portfolio optimization actions should reduce the volatility and support continued mix and margin improvement throughout the year.

以此數字為基礎，我們再建立 2024 財年的展望。影響我們展望的因素包括：我們以穩定的狀態進入新年度。我們的展望未反映當前經濟政策可能的變動。整體銷量預期將以中個位數百分比成長。我們的投資組合最佳化行動應可降低波動性，並在全年支持產品組合與毛利率的持續改善。

Raw materials are expected to remain stable. Momentum in our globalized and innovate strategies are expected to be maintained.

原物料預期將維持穩定。我們在全球化與創新策略上的動能預期將得以維持。

Our outlook assumes more negative developments in China coatings. Overall results will be driven by the balance of performance in China versus our performance in other regions. In light of the elections, some of the above assumptions may change, and we will update our outlook accordingly. Taking these factors into account, our outlook for 2025 is sales of $1.9 billion to $2.05 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $430 million to $470 million.

我們的展望假設中國塗料業務出現更負面的發展。整體結果將取決於中國的表現與其他地區表現之間的平衡。鑑於選舉因素，上述部分假設可能改變，我們將相應更新展望。綜合考量這些因素，我們對 2025 年的展望為：銷售額 19 億至 20.5 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 4.30 億至 4.70 億美元。

Please turn to Slide 22. Although there's a high level of uncertainty, we have clarity on the issues we need to focus on while delivering controllables and staying on strategy. Our priorities for the next year follow our strategic pillars of execute, globalize and innovate to enable profitable growth in the coming years. If we look at execute, we have a unique set of internal opportunities to strengthen our core businesses and improve performance. Maintaining disciplined price volume management is also critical.

請翻到第 22 頁投影片。儘管不確定性很高，我們仍清楚知道在交付可控項目並堅守策略的同時，需要聚焦的議題。我們明年的優先事項將依循策略支柱：執行、全球化與創新，以在未來幾年實現獲利成長。若看「執行」，我們有一組獨特的內部機會，可強化核心業務並改善績效。維持有紀律的價格與銷量管理同樣至關重要。

As we address the challenges of today, we will continue to invest in our globalize and innovate strategy, which are critical long-term growth catalysts. We will continue to improve our operating and planning processes and systems to enable our business teams to better navigate and manage our business portfolio.

在因應當前挑戰的同時，我們將持續投資於全球化與創新策略，這些是關鍵的長期成長催化劑。我們也將持續改善營運與規劃流程及系統，使各業務團隊能更好地掌舵並管理我們的業務投資組合。

Please turn to Slide 24. As you may have noticed in our earnings release, our Investor Day in December was rebranded to a strategy update. We recognize in the challenging market conditions, improving near-term performance and focused execution and controllables is critical. To that end, we are preparing a focused agenda for this event with an emphasis on fiscal '25. The date has not changed, December 10, beginning at 9:00 PM Eastern Time in New York.

請翻到第 24 頁投影片。如你們在我們的財報新聞稿中可能已注意到，我們原定於 12 月的投資人日已重新定位為策略更新。我們認知到在充滿挑戰的市場環境下，提升短期表現、聚焦執行與可控項目至關重要。因此，我們正為此次活動準備一個聚焦的議程，重點放在 2025 財年。日期不變：12 月 10 日，於紐約東部時間晚上 9:00 開始。

We are looking forward to sharing the details of our execution-focused initiatives and 2025 commitments. You'll have the opportunity to hear directly from Kevin, our GMs and me with a moderated Q&A session. We will also host a live breakout discussion on key business lines and technology platforms so you have opportunity to interact with Ashland leaders driving these efforts.

我們期待與各位分享我們以執行為導向的各項倡議細節，以及對2025年的承諾。您將有機會在主持人引導的問答環節中，直接聽取Kevin、我們的各事業部總經理（GM）以及我本人的分享。我們也將就關鍵業務線與技術平台舉辦現場分組討論，讓您有機會與推動這些工作的Ashland領導團隊互動。

In closing, I want to restate the key takeaways. From a market perspective, Q4 was generally in line with our expectations. We are finalizing our portfolio transformation. We have a healthy and well-positioned portfolio focused on high-quality markets. We expect fiscal year '25 to be another challenging year, and the focus will be on maintaining a balanced management of our business, especially around share and price, delivering on our self-help actions and building resilience to drive performance in a challenging environment while maintaining capital allocation discipline.

最後，我想重申幾項關鍵重點。從市場角度來看，第四季整體大致符合我們的預期。我們正在完成投資組合轉型。我們擁有健康且定位良好的投資組合，聚焦於高品質市場。我們預期2025會計年度仍將是充滿挑戰的一年，重點將放在維持業務的均衡管理，特別是在市占與價格方面；落實我們的自助措施；並在充滿挑戰的環境中建立韌性以推動績效，同時維持資本配置紀律。

Despite the near-term challenges, we remain very excited about the long-term potential of our business portfolio. We continue to invest and advance our long-term growth catalysts. I want to thank the Ashland team once again for their leadership and proactive ownership of their businesses in a dynamic environment.

儘管短期面臨挑戰，我們仍對公司投資組合的長期潛力感到非常振奮。我們持續投資並推進長期成長催化劑。我也要再次感謝Ashland團隊在動態環境中展現的領導力，以及對各自業務的主動承擔與主人翁精神。

For now, operator, if we can go to Q&A.

現在，接線員，我們可以進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Michael Sison, Wells Fargo

Michael Sison，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）

Hey, good morning. In terms of your outlook for fiscal '25, I think there was a little bit more negative than we had thought versus sort of the walk to the positive. So I guess, can you maybe give us a little bit of thoughts on where the upside could be? And then longer term, what type of EBITDA do you think Ashland should get to? We've sort of been stuck here below $500 million for a little bit. So just maybe a longer-term view on that as well, Guillermo.

嗨，早安。就你們對2025會計年度的展望而言，我覺得相較於我們原先預期、以及原本走向正面的路徑，你們的說法似乎稍微更偏負面一些。所以我想請教，你們能否談談上行空間可能來自哪些地方？另外，從更長期來看，你認為Ashland的EBITDA應該能達到什麼水準？我們似乎在低於5億美元的區間卡了一段時間。所以也請你談談對此的長期看法，Guillermo。

Yes. Mike, thanks for the question. First, if we look at the year, I mean, we've shared more data and more modeling points than we've done in the past. Obviously, we recognize there's a lot of changes within Ashland of all the portfolio changes. And also, I think there's a lot of just structural global changes that are happening, especially around Europe with just manufacturing competitiveness and some shifts there and now more importantly, in China.

好的。Mike，謝謝你的問題。首先，如果我們看整個年度，我們分享了比過去更多的數據與模型假設點。顯然，我們也認知到Ashland因投資組合調整而出現許多變化。此外，我認為全球也正在發生許多結構性變化，特別是歐洲在製造競爭力方面的一些變動與轉移，而現在更重要的是中國。

So that baseline where we're starting at $450 million sort of takes everything into account and then we can start moving forward.

因此，我們以4.5億美元作為起點的基準，已把所有因素納入考量，接著我們就可以在此基礎上往前推進。

If you look at the range that we've looked at, our model has not changed. We believe the portfolio can deliver mid-single-digit growth, the margins that we've been talking about. So if you just do some scenarios, if you take the midpoint that we're giving and put 5% growth or 3% to 6% growth, that will take you to the higher end of our portfolio.

如果你看我們所提出的區間，我們的模型並沒有改變。我們相信投資組合可以帶來中個位數的成長，以及我們一直在談的利潤率水準。所以如果你做一些情境分析，把我們給的中位數套用5%的成長，或3%到6%的成長，就會把你帶到我們投資組合的較高端表現。

Most of our businesses and most of the regions are performing in that range. What we're bringing back down is we think that China is going to go through a prolonged period, and this is not something that's going to change overnight and that we need to factor in that it's going to become a more hypercompetitive market. There's going to be a lot of oversupply and that we should be prudent on that. If we're wrong, there's more upside. If we're right, we're prepared.

我們大多數業務與大多數地區的表現都落在那個區間。我們之所以把預期往下調，是因為我們認為中國將經歷一段較長的調整期，這不是一夕之間會改變的；我們必須把它納入考量，因為它將成為一個更高度競爭的市場。供給過剩會很明顯，因此我們應該保持審慎。如果我們判斷錯了，上行空間就更大。如果我們判斷正確，我們也已做好準備。

So that's what's bringing it down to us.

所以，這就是讓我們把預期往下拉的原因。

What would take it to the downside is that the global economy doesn't perform as well and then the growth isn't as high, but you get the negative side in China. That's the part how -- we've laid it out. And I think it's more about being more prudent about our outlook. So we would expect -- if you think of all the cost savings, right now, one of the headwinds is the portfolio optimization. We sold the nutraceutical business in August. That impacted gross profit loss and some stranded costs.

至於可能導致下行的因素，是全球經濟表現不如預期，成長沒有那麼高，同時又承受中國的負面影響。這就是我們如何把它拆解說明的。我認為這更多是關於對展望採取更審慎的態度。因此我們會預期——如果你把所有成本節省都納入考量，目前其中一個逆風是投資組合最佳化。我們在8月出售了營養保健（nutraceutical）業務。這對毛利造成影響，並產生一些閒置成本（stranded costs）。

We have taken action from an EPS perspective to neutralize it through share buybacks, but we are committed to trying to get our EBITDA back to a good portfolio range. If you look, the last two years, the sales drop versus the EBITDA drop, the EBITDA has been flat, and we have had a significant reduction as we shed some of these businesses. So I think we're managing through that well, but we have to recognize,, we have almost $30 million that we're committed to take off, but it's a timing issue. And we'll get about $10 million next year and then the rest in '26.

從每股盈餘（EPS）的角度，我們已透過庫藏股回購採取行動來中和其影響，但我們承諾會努力讓EBITDA回到投資組合應有的良好區間。如果你看過去兩年，營收下滑相較於EBITDA下滑，EBITDA其實是持平的；而在我們剝離部分業務的同時，營收有顯著下降。所以我認為我們在這方面管理得不錯，但我們也必須認知到，我們承諾要削減的金額接近3,000萬美元，只是時間點的問題。明年我們大約會實現1,000萬美元，其餘會在2026年實現。

So as you look at '26, you're going to get full offset of all the portfolio actions and then all these productivity actions, which we were hoping would be upside to our plan. I think given some of the pricing dynamics, they will hold us in the range of performance that we want and we'll move from there moving forward. So we expect '26 to really get back into the ranges that we have been talking about, back over $500 million.

因此當你看2026年時，你將會看到所有投資組合動作的完整抵銷效果，以及所有這些生產力提升措施；我們原本希望這些能成為計畫的上行因素。我認為考量到一些定價動態，它們將使我們維持在我們希望的績效區間，然後我們再從那裡往前推進。所以我們預期2026年將真正回到我們一直在談的區間，重新回到5億美元以上。

And Mike, I think it's also important to note that in terms of the optimization items that we've talked about, this $90 million, we have very clear visibility into the vast majority of that $90 million today. It's about timing and execution around the activities that have to happen. And some of these are fairly complex, and they do involve our manufacturing footprint and how we're managing through all of that. But again, we do have very clear visibility into the vast majority of the $90 million that we're talking about.

Mike，我也認為很重要的一點是，就我們談到的最佳化項目而言，這9,000萬美元中絕大多數的部分，我們今天已具有非常清楚的可視性。關鍵在於相關活動的時間安排與執行。其中有些相當複雜，且涉及我們的製造據點布局，以及我們如何管理整體過程。但再次強調，對於我們所談的這9,000萬美元中的絕大多數，我們確實有非常清楚的可視性。

Great. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

Josh Spector, UBS.

Josh Spector，瑞銀（UBS）。

This is James Cannon on for Josh. I just wanted to follow up on -- I think in the release, you talked about some incremental pricing pressure offsetting volumes versus, I think, in the outlook that Guillermo just gave, he talked about mid-single volume growth. Are you expecting further pricing pressure to offset that? Or does that volume growth comment imply like organic growth overall?

我是代Josh提問的James Cannon。我想追問一下——我記得在新聞稿中，你們提到一些額外的定價壓力抵銷了銷量；但在Guillermo剛才給的展望中，他談到中個位數的銷量成長。你們是否預期會有進一步的定價壓力來抵銷那個成長？還是說，這個銷量成長的說法其實是在指整體的有機成長？

So overall, we are expecting organic growth. I would break it down into 2 separate issues. Put China aside. In the overall portfolio, we expect overall growth. Outlook seems strong to us across most of the regions. We do see some pressures on pricing around the world, more specifically for our call in the fourth quarter. There's still a lot of negotiations in the VP&D business in pharma as an example.

整體而言，我們預期會有有機成長。我會把它拆成兩個不同的議題。先把中國放一邊。就整體投資組合而言，我們預期整體會成長。在大多數地區，我們看到的展望對我們來說相當強勁。我們確實看到全球有一些定價壓力，尤其是針對我們對第四季的判斷。例如在製藥領域的VP&D業務，仍有許多談判在進行中。

We've been able to reposition in Asia and Latin America. The price is already reflective and the volumes are coming back. We're in the middle of negotiations in Europe, which is another big market for us. I don't want to comment about that too much because they are in progress, but that should all work out through now through January, we should have most of those negotiations down. So we expect it's going to be a trade-off of price versus volume, and we're managing through that.

我們已在亞洲與拉丁美洲完成重新定位。價格已反映到位，銷量也正在回升。我們正在歐洲進行談判，而歐洲也是我們另一個重要市場。由於談判仍在進行中，我不想對此評論太多，但從現在到1月之間，我們應該能完成大部分談判。因此我們預期這會是價格與銷量之間的取捨，而我們正在加以管理。

I think if you look at the China side, there's two dimensions to it. One is what's happening in China. And although it's been stable from a volume perspective for us, we have seen price erosion there. I think the part that we're looking at, and it has not happened. This is more of our outlook is saying, look, if you look at China, and maybe I'll ask Dago to make some comments here, but most of the business in China in coatings specifically is 40% is repaint, 60%, 70% is new construction.

我認為如果你看中國這一端，有兩個面向。一個是中國正在發生什麼。雖然從我們的出貨量角度來看一直相對穩定，但我們確實看到那邊有價格侵蝕。我認為我們正在關注的那一部分，而且目前還沒有發生。這更多是我們的展望在說：你看中國——也許我請 Dago 在這裡補充一些評論——但在中國，特別是在塗料業務中，大部分業務是 40% 來自重塗，60%、70% 來自新建案。

In the US and other parts of the world, it's the other way around. Majority of the market is repaint versus new construction. So if you step back and you look at China, the repaint market will probably remain stable. The question is going to be, if there's a significant downturn in the property market and in construction, how much is that market contracting and how fast will it recover?

在美國和世界其他地區則相反。市場的大多數是重塗，而不是新建案。所以如果你退一步看中國，重塗市場可能會維持穩定。問題將在於：如果房地產市場與建築業出現顯著下滑，那個市場會收縮多少、以及復甦速度會有多快？

Our view right now is to reignite the property market is going to require two things: one, restructuring all the debt; and two, consumer confidence. If there's too much wealth of individuals in property, property is not moving up. So to convince people to buy, it's also going to be -- so those two things aren't going to happen overnight. The stimuluses that can come, I think it will help Personal Care, will help other things in normal spending. These are bigger spending items.

我們目前的看法是，要重新點燃房地產市場需要兩件事：第一，重整所有債務；第二，消費者信心。如果個人財富有太大一部分在房地產上，而房價又不上漲，那要說服人們去買，也將會是——所以這兩件事不可能一夕之間發生。可能推出的刺激措施，我認為會有助於個人護理，也會有助於其他一般性支出。但房地產這些屬於更大額的支出項目。

So we're assuming that the next two years probably will be a transition.

因此我們假設未來兩年很可能會是一個過渡期。

And this is where we expect some changes happening. And they're not clear to us how they're going to play, but we're looking at both price and volume adjustments in that market, and that's what we are sort of factoring into our outlook at this point in time.

而這也是我們預期會出現一些變化的地方。這些變化會如何發展，我們目前還不清楚，但我們正在觀察該市場的價格與出貨量調整，並把這些因素納入我們此刻的展望之中。

These are bigger spending items. So we're assuming that the next two years probably will be a transition and this is where we expect some changes happening. And they're not clear to us how they're going to play. But we're looking at both price and volume adjustments in, in that market and that's what we are sort of factoring into, into our outlook at this point in time.

這些屬於更大額的支出項目。因此我們假設未來兩年很可能會是一個過渡期，而這也是我們預期會出現一些變化的地方。這些變化會如何發展，我們目前還不清楚。但我們正在觀察該市場的價格與出貨量調整，而這就是我們此刻在展望中所納入考量的。

Okay. So, and then just Dago, if you could comment a little bit on what you're seeing on the dynamics in China from home supply.

好的。那麼，Dago，如果你能就你從住宅供給端所看到的中國動態稍微評論一下。

Thank you, Guillermo. Yes, what I would say is that definitely new construction drives the coatings market in China more than repaint and remodel. That's clear. And from that perspective, as long as the property sector remains depressed, well, we're going to see soft demand, and that's what we're seeing today. Of course, with soft demand, you have oversupply and then you have pricing pressures.

謝謝你，Guillermo。是的，我想說的是，在中國，新建案對塗料市場的帶動確實比重塗與翻修更大。這很明顯。從這個角度來看，只要房地產部門仍然低迷，我們就會看到疲弱的需求，而這正是我們今天所看到的。當然，需求疲弱就會出現供給過剩，進而帶來價格壓力。

I think to Guillermo's point, I actually was in the region a couple of months ago, and the stimulus package was welcomed. I think it's a step in the right direction, but we don't believe it's going to have an effect in 2025. I think it's going to be more 2026 and 2027. Why? Because these are really structural issues that China is dealing with.

我認同 Guillermo 的觀點；其實我幾個月前才在那個地區，刺激方案受到歡迎。我認為這是朝正確方向邁出的一步，但我們不認為它會在 2025 年產生效果。我認為更可能是在 2026 年和 2027 年。為什麼？因為這些確實是中國正在面對的結構性問題。

So we're taking a conservative approach. We've talked to customers. We do see demand softness, and that's why we are forecasting the way we are.

因此我們採取較保守的做法。我們已與客戶交流。我們確實看到需求偏弱，這也是我們做出目前預測方式的原因。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

John Roberts, Mizuho

John Roberts，瑞穗（Mizuho）

Thank you. We're about halfway through the December quarter. Is there anything you can talk about in terms of bridging December quarter EBITDA to September quarter results?

謝謝。我們現在大約走完 12 月季度的一半。就 12 月季度 EBITDA 與 9 月季度結果之間的銜接（bridge）而言，有沒有什麼你們可以談的？

I think right now, the quarter -- and we'll see what the recent elections do to some of the demand behaviors from customers. We are seeing the quarter starting a little bit softer, some of our customers, especially in Europe, indicating that they're taking more inventory control actions. So I think this will be more -- is some of the volumes going to shift in December to January, depending on the actions they take.

我認為目前這個季度——我們也會看看最近的選舉會如何影響客戶的一些需求行為。我們看到本季開局稍微偏弱，一些客戶，特別是在歐洲，表示他們正在採取更多庫存控管措施。所以我認為這將更多是——視他們採取的行動而定，部分出貨量是否會從 12 月移到 1 月。

So that's the one signal. Most of where we're hearing it is in Europe. We're not seeing a lot of changes in the rest of the world. And China is the one that we are looking at. And I think depending on some of the dynamics right now, I would expect starting end of this quarter and most likely, more heavily into Q2, that's when we're going to start seeing some of the bigger changes.

所以這是一個訊號。我們聽到的主要是在歐洲。在世界其他地區我們沒有看到太多變化。而中國是我們正在關注的一個。我認為依目前的一些動態，我預期從本季末開始、而且很可能在第二季更明顯，我們將開始看到一些較大的變化。

And then is there a dollar amount of buyback that we should think about for 2025? Or how should we think about that?

那麼，對於 2025 年，我們應該預期的庫藏股回購金額有沒有一個數字？或者我們應該如何看待這件事？

I think let me comment and Kevin, you might want to comment more. I think we've shown that we have a strong balance sheet. We have the capability, we are very bullish on the long term, as you heard. I mean, our globalized segments are growing at double digits. We have a lot of innovation so nothing has really changed in the long term.

我先評論一下，Kevin 你也許可以補充更多。我認為我們已經展現出我們有很強的資產負債表。我們有能力，而且如你所聽到的，我們對長期非常看多。我的意思是，我們全球化的事業部門正以兩位數成長。我們有很多創新，所以長期而言其實沒有什麼改變。

It's -- we have to go through this transition of the Ashland changes of our portfolio in a dynamic of structural changes in Europe and China, and we'll work through that. That does not change our long-term perspective. So if valuations create opportunities, we've shown that we will take action, and I don't think that has changed.

只是——我們必須度過這段過渡期：Ashland 對我們產品組合的調整，以及歐洲與中國的結構性變化所帶來的動態，我們會把它處理好。這不會改變我們的長期觀點。因此如果估值帶來機會，我們已經證明我們會採取行動，我不認為這點有改變。

But Kevin, can you comment a little bit?

不過 Kevin，你能稍微評論一下嗎？

Sure. I mean I think we demonstrated in fiscal '24 that we're very bullish on the company and on the stock. We repurchased nearly 4.3 million shares, spent approximately $380 million to do that. Very comfortable with what we've done there from an execution perspective.

當然。我的意思是，我認為我們在 2024 財年已經證明，我們對公司與股價都非常看多。我們回購了將近 430 萬股，為此花了約 3.8 億美元。從執行角度來看，我們對所做的事情非常滿意。

The beauty of maintaining a strong balance sheet is that we have the flexibility to do a lot of different things. We can invest in the business. We can continue to repurchase shares. We can support a strong and growing dividend. And you should expect us to do in the future, the things that we have been doing in that regard.

維持強健資產負債表的好處在於，我們有彈性去做很多不同的事情。我們可以投資於業務。我們可以持續回購股票。我們可以支持強勁且成長中的股利。而你們應該預期我們未來會繼續做我們一直以來在這方面所做的事情。

So we do have the flexibility to do that.

所以我們確實有彈性可以這麼做。

As we look at fiscal '25, there's no reason that the company shouldn't generate north of 50% free cash flow conversion to EBITDA. And that will help support the activities that we've been doing and that we will continue to do.

展望 2025 財年，公司沒有理由不能達到 EBITDA 轉換為自由現金流超過 50%（north of 50%）的水準。而這將有助於支撐我們一直在做、以及將持續進行的各項活動。

Thank you. Your last question comes from the line of Mike Harrison, Seaport Research Partners.

謝謝。你們的最後一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mike Harrison。

Hi, good morning. Dago, I was wondering if you could give us a regional breakout of what the coatings business looks like. I just think it would be helpful if we understood how big the China coatings business is. And maybe also talk a little bit about your expectations for other regions, particularly North America, if we're seeing some relief on mortgage rates.

嗨，早安。Dago，我想請問你是否可以提供塗料業務按地區的拆分概況。我覺得如果我們能了解中國塗料業務的規模有多大，會很有幫助。另外也請談談你對其他地區的預期，特別是北美，如果我們看到房貸利率有一些緩解的話。

Yes. Thank you for the question. So what we're seeing today, I would say the market in North America, it's pretty stable. Now with the interest rates coming down and some of the predictions that we see out there, we expect the growth rates in the 3% to 4%. That's what the American Coatings Association is saying.

是的。謝謝你的提問。所以就我們今天看到的情況來說，我會說北美市場相當穩定。現在隨著利率下調，以及我們看到的一些預測，我們預期成長率約在3%到4%。這也是美國塗料協會（American Coatings Association）的看法。

Europe has its challenges, but Europe is growing well for us, I would say. So I would say Europe, looking into 2025, I will also consider it a stable market. There are some interesting pockets of growth for us last year. So Middle East, Africa and India, that's a very interesting one. India is a country that continues to grow, and we feel optimistic about that one.

歐洲有其挑戰，但我會說歐洲對我們而言成長得不錯。因此我會說，展望2025年，歐洲我也會把它視為一個穩定的市場。去年我們也看到一些有趣的成長區塊。像是中東、非洲和印度，這些都非常有意思。印度是一個持續成長的國家，我們對此感到樂觀。

Rest of Asia, I would say it's also stable for us, slightly growing. I think really the issue keeps going back to China, where we have this structural fundamental issue, and that's what we have to deal with in 2025. But overall, the rest of the market, I would say, are stable. We are producing ahead of the paint season. we don't expect anything other than really dealing with the China issue.

亞洲其他地區，我會說對我們而言也很穩定，且略有成長。我認為真正的問題還是回到中國，我們在那裡面臨結構性的基本面問題，而這就是我們在2025年必須處理的。但整體而言，其餘市場我會說都很穩定。我們在塗料旺季前就提前生產。我們不預期會有其他狀況，除了確實要處理中國的問題。

And Mike, to your question, China is about 25% of the coatings business. So if you look at our footprint, we have a very well-balanced footprint, plants in Europe, in the US and China. So until now, most -- all of our production in China stayed in China. So part of our options, obviously, as we rebalance, and this is all the work we've been doing on our HEC network is that we can rebalance and change where we export, what we ship from where.

另外，Mike，回到你的問題，中國約占塗料業務的25%。所以如果你看我們的布局，我們的足跡非常均衡，在歐洲、美國和中國都有工廠。到目前為止，我們在中國的生產幾乎——全部都留在中國。因此，當我們重新平衡時，我們的選項之一，當然也是我們一直在做的HEC網路相關工作的一部分，就是我們可以重新平衡並改變出口方向、以及從哪裡出貨。

But we're going to wait and some of these comments that we're seeing have not happened yet. These are our expectations. We're looking forward, and we're taking this more conservative view. But we have flexibility to respond depending on what happens.

但我們會先觀望，因為我們看到的一些評論所提到的情況還沒有發生。這些是我們的預期。我們是在往前看，並採取較為保守的觀點。不過我們有彈性，可以視情況發展做出回應。

I think the bigger question right now is going to be with the recent elections, what does that do to trade policies? -- for us, the one business that probably sees a lot more impact because of some of these dynamics.

我認為目前更大的問題會是，最近的選舉結果會如何影響貿易政策？——對我們而言，有一個業務可能會因為這些動態而受到更大的影響。

All right. And then just making sure that I understand what was going on with the operational issues that you incurred during the fourth quarter, it sounds like that was related to fixed cost absorption within Specialty Additives. And I guess my question is, if we're going to see some prolonged weakness in China coatings in particular, could we potentially see some lower utilization rates and some weaker fixed cost absorption in the first part of fiscal '25? Is that something that's potentially baked into your guidance?

好的。另外我想確認我是否理解你們在第四季遇到的營運問題，聽起來那與特用添加劑（Specialty Additives）的固定成本吸收有關。我想問的是，如果我們將看到中國塗料，尤其是塗料領域，出現較長時間的疲弱，我們是否可能在2025財年上半年看到較低的產能利用率，以及較弱的固定成本吸收？這是否已經可能反映在你們的指引之中？

First, what happened in the US it's a plant. We're investing to making some changes for future productivity so that we have more flexibility on what we make where as we move forward. We had issues in the start-up, and -- it's an absorption issue. The plant did not run as expected during the month -- during the quarter.

首先，美國發生的是一座工廠的問題。我們正在投資並進行一些調整，以提升未來的生產力，讓我們在往前走時，對於在哪裡生產哪些產品有更大的彈性。我們在啟動初期遇到一些問題——這是一個吸收（absorption）問題。該工廠在那個月——在該季度的運轉未如預期。

And then not related, we had another issue, just an equipment failure as we were starting up. So it just prolonged a little bit longer the delay. So it is an absorption issue and the plant is running and we'll run to the normal production plans that we have. So the expectation is we'll recover some of this into the year.

另外，與此無關的是，我們在啟動時又遇到另一個問題，就是設備故障。因此延遲時間就稍微拉長了一點。所以這確實是吸收問題，而工廠目前已在運轉，並將依照我們既定的正常生產計畫運行。因此我們的預期是，今年內會回收其中一部分影響。

The issue in China is all our production in China is for China. So depending on what happens there, that's the one area that we will adjust, and that is factored into our guidance range upside, downside. It has not happened, but we are factoring if we needed to do that in the scenarios that guide this range.

中國的問題在於，我們在中國的所有生產都是供應中國市場。因此視那邊的情況而定，那是我們會調整的唯一領域，而這也已納入我們指引區間的上行、下行情境之中。目前尚未發生，但我們在推導這個區間的情境中，已把若有需要進行調整的可能性納入考量。

Alright, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

There are no other questions, I will now turn the call back over to Guillermo for closing remarks.

如果沒有其他問題，我現在把電話會議交回給Guillermo做結語。

Well, thank you, everyone, for your participation. I know that there's a lot of data and a lot of outlook comments that we have. We look forward in a few weeks that we'll see everybody in New York and also calls in the coming days. So I'm sure that we'll have a chance to go in more detail and give you a little bit more color.

好的，謝謝各位的參與。我知道我們提供了很多數據，也分享了很多展望方面的評論。我們期待在幾週後於紐約與大家見面，接下來幾天也會有電話會議。所以我相信我們會有機會更深入地討論，並提供更多細節與補充說明。

I do want to end to say -- although we're taking a conservative view on one region of the world and specifically one business that gets impacted the most, the majority of the portfolio, we're very excited where we're going. Everything that we have been executing has been working for our plans. And the future really is now about staying focused.

我也想在最後說——雖然我們對全球某一個地區、尤其是受影響最大的某一項業務採取較保守的看法，但就投資組合的大多數而言，我們對未來的方向感到非常振奮。我們一直在執行的各項工作，都在按計畫發揮成效。而未來真正要做的，就是保持專注。

We've got to deal with the reality of the current situation in terms of the business. But we need to perform both in the long term, stay focused, we're investing, we're growing and manage the near term, and that's what we'll do. Look forward to talking to you in a few weeks. Thank you.

我們必須面對目前業務情勢的現實。但我們需要在長期上持續表現、保持專注；我們正在投資、正在成長，同時也要管理短期狀況——這就是我們會做的。期待幾週後再與各位交流。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that completes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。