艾睿電子 (ARW) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Arrow Electronics Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Steve O'Brien. Please go ahead.

大家好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加艾睿電子2021財年第四季及全年財報電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。 （操作說明）現在我將會議交給今天的發言人史蒂夫·奧布萊恩先生。請開始發言。

Thanks, April. And with us on the call today are Mike Long, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Sean Kerins, Chief Operating Officer; and Chris Stansbury, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，艾普麗爾。今天和我們一起參加電話會議的還有：董事長、總裁兼首席執行官邁克·朗；首席營運官肖恩·克林斯；以及高級副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯·斯坦斯伯里。

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, including statements about our business outlook, strategies and future financial results, which are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Our actual results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including the risk factors in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings with the SEC. We undertake no obligation to update publicly or revise any of the forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出一些前瞻性陳述，包括關於我們業務展望、策略和未來財務表現的陳述，這些陳述均基於我們截至目前的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-K和10-Q文件中列明的風險因素，我們的實際業績可能與這些陳述有重大差異。我們不承擔公開更新或修訂任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

As a reminder, some of the figures we will discuss today on today's call are non-GAAP. We have reconciled those to the most directly comparable GAAP figures -- measures in our financial statements and earnings release. These are non-GAAP measures and are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results.

再次提醒，我們今天電話會議上將討論的部分資料為非GAAP資料。我們已將這些數據與最直接可比較的GAAP數據（即財務報表和盈利報告中的指標）進行了核對。這些是非GAAP指標，並非旨在取代我們的GAAP績效。

You can access our earnings release at investor.arrow.com, along with the CFO commentary, the non-GAAP earnings reconciliation and a replay of this call. We will begin with a few minutes of prepared remarks, which will then be followed by a question-and-answer period.

您可以透過 investor.arrow.com 查看我們的獲利報告，以及財務長的評論、非GAAP獲利調整表和本次電話會議的錄音回放。我們將首先進行幾分鐘的發言，隨後是問答環節。

I will now hand the call to our Chairman, President and CEO, Mike Long.

現在我將把電話交給我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長麥克朗。

Thanks, Steve. Thanks to all of you for joining us today. Before I get into our most recent results, I would like to take a minute to reflect on the past year at Arrow.

謝謝史蒂夫。感謝各位今天蒞臨。在介紹我們最新的業績之前，我想先花一點時間回顧一下Arrow過去一年的發展歷程。

In today's environment, our focus on constantly evolving our business to better serve our customers is more important than ever. Our team has long recognized that the future of business will not look like the past. And in order to win, we must both maximize our current business and embrace new avenues and sources of profitability.

在當今環境下，我們比以往任何時候都更需要專注於不斷發展業務，以便更好地服務客戶。我們的團隊早已認識到，未來的商業模式將與過去截然不同。為了取得成功，我們既要最大限度地發揮現有業務的優勢，也要積極開拓新的獲利途徑和來源。

At Arrow, we continue to enhance the solutions and services we provide as the markets we serve change at an increasingly rapid pace. And it's clear that our work is paying off. Our strong results demonstrate that we remain ahead of the curve, supported by the best team in the industry.

在Arrow，隨著我們所服務的市場日新月異，我們不斷提升解決方案和服務。顯然，我們的努力正在發揮成效。我們卓越的業績表明，在業界頂尖團隊的支持下，我們始終保持領先地位。

This year, our colleagues worked tirelessly to overcome the many challenges caused by the lack of supply in the face of an acute need for components and IT solutions. While our sales, gross profit and operating income set all-time absolute records, our team's efficiency was also unmatched.

今年，面對零件和IT解決方案的迫切需求，由於供應短缺，我們的同事們不懈地努力，克服了許多挑戰。雖然我們的銷售額、毛利和營業收入都創歷史新高，但團隊效率也同樣空前高漲。

We reached new benchmark levels on an individual employee basis for all 3 metrics. This increased efficiency was a direct result of our work over the last several years to assemble the most capable workforce possible, leveraging diverse skills, experiences and backgrounds to best serve our customers across the different regions and industries.

我們所有三個指標都達到了新的員工個人績效標竿水準。效率的提升直接得益於我們過去幾年致力於組建最優秀員工隊伍的努力，充分利用多元化的技能、經驗和背景，以便更好地服務於不同地區和行業的客戶。

Credibility and transparency continue to be the hallmarks of our business. Instances of severe supply chain bottlenecks have resulted in production slowdowns. But they also have enabled Arrow to showcase our unmatched experience, industry knowledge, products and services to customers, new and old.

信譽和透明度始終是我們業務的基石。嚴重的供應鏈瓶頸導致生產放緩，但也使Arrow能夠向新舊客戶充分展示我們無可比擬的經驗、行業知識、產品和服務。

We understand the demand dynamics and are uniquely positioned to help our customers navigate today's challenges. This includes companies and industries who may be unaccustomed to shortages or supply restrictions. By helping to mitigate production risks and ensure a continuous stream of products to the market, Arrow deepens customer relationships and solidifies our position as a trusted partner.

我們深諳市場需​​求動態，並擁有獨特的優勢，能夠幫助客戶應對當今的挑戰。這包括那些可能不習慣短缺或供應限制的公司和行業。透過幫助客戶降低生產風險，確保產品持續供應市場，Arrow 能夠加深客戶關係，並鞏固我們作為值得信賴的合作夥伴的地位。

Moving to the most recent results. We continue to believe our investments in design, engineering and supply chain services are bearing fruit. However, there is certainly an element of favorable pricing that is beneficial to our margins. We have reason to believe that the overall industry pricing environment has structurally improved and could be better from cycle to cycle.

接下來談談最新業績。我們仍然相信，我們在設計、工程和供應鏈服務方面的投資正在取得成效。當然，有利的價格因素也對我們的利潤率有所好處。我們有理由相信，整個行業的定價環境已經從結構上得到改善，並且未來可能會更加有利。

From a structural perspective, consolidation is a key factor in pricing. In addition, we see only modest capacity additions coming online within the next couple of quarters compared to the overwhelming demand. Longer-term, we recognize that there will be more challenging demand conditions. At some point in the future, this will test the thesis.

從結構角度來看，整合是影響定價的關鍵因素。此外，與龐大的市場需求相比，我們預計未來幾季新增產能將十分有限。從長遠來看，我們意識到未來需求情勢將更加嚴峻。未來某個時候，這將考驗我們的理論。

In this shortage environment, it's paramount that we rethink the way business in our industry is done in order to manage the dynamic nature of demand. Arrow has been working to address, from our own perspective, the potential for rising inventory levels in the electronics component industry despite claims of unmet demand in the channel. Stocking higher-value inventory with greater design and engineering components contributed to record margins and returns on working capital and invested capital.

在當前供應短缺的環境下，我們必須重新思考產業的經營模式，以因應不斷變化的需求。儘管通路需求未被滿足，但艾睿電子一直致力於從自身角度應對電子元件產業庫存水準上升的潛在風險。儲備更多高價值的設計和工程元件，有助於實現創紀錄的利潤率以及營運資本和投資資本回報率。

That said, we know we must balance the competing near-term priority of keeping our cash cycle short with our long-term goal of maximizing economic returns. We're monitoring the quantities, types and turns of our inventory closely and believe we're well positioned to sell through our inventory and collect future cash on our working capital investments.

儘管如此，我們也深知必須平衡短期內保持現金週轉週期短這一優先事項與長期實現經濟效益最大化的目標。我們正在密切監控庫存的數量、類型和周轉率，並相信我們已做好充分準備，能夠售罄庫存，並收回營運資本投資的未來收益。

Turning to enterprise computing solutions. Close followers of our story recognize that sales and profit growth have become disassociated due to the accounting treatment of software services and cloud. We're pleased to deliver on our main focus, operating income growth for the full year.

轉向企業運算解決方案。密切關注我們發展動態的讀者會發現，由於軟體服務和雲端運算的會計處理方式，銷售額和利潤成長已經脫節。我們很高興能夠實現全年營業收入成長這一主要目標。

While supply chain issues continue to limit our ability to capitalize on strong demand, we saw postponed or realigned projects turn into available cloud-based resources. The flexibility of our business model has made us, in either case, well positioned to remain engaged with customers and tailor our solutions to their needs.

儘管供應鏈問題持續限制了我們充分利用強勁需求的能力，但我們看到一些被推遲或調整的項目已轉化為可用的雲端資源。我們靈活的商業模式使我們能夠始終與客戶保持密切聯繫，並根據他們的需求量身定制解決方案。

With enterprise computing solutions' operating income on solid footing, we enter 2022 with excitement to serve our customers. Now more than ever, Arrow is unmatched in its services and support when compared to the competition. We're providing much needed stability and experience to value-added resellers and managed service providers without distraction.

企業運算解決方案的營業收入穩定成長，我們滿懷熱情地邁入2022年，並持續為客戶提供優質服務。如今，與競爭對手相比，Arrow在服務和支援方面更勝一籌。我們致力於為加值經銷商和主機服務供應商提供亟需的穩定性和豐富的經驗，確保他們能夠專注於業務發展。

In closing, I would like to congratulate our team for delivering strong financial results and economic returns that we have been striving towards. In 2021, we have turned each potential challenge that came our way, from consolidation to tariffs, to cloud and to shortages, into opportunities, in turn successes.

最後，我要祝賀我們的團隊取得了我們一直努力追求的強勁財務表現和經濟回報。 2021年，我們把遇到的每一個潛在挑戰，從產業整合到關稅，從雲端運算到資源短缺，都轉化為機遇，最終取得了成功。

While our industry continues to change over time, the fact remains that Arrow continues to improve and expand our business to the benefit of our customers, suppliers and team. We look forward to continuing to build on this momentum.

儘管我們所處的行業瞬息萬變，但艾睿始終致力於改進和拓展業務，從而惠及我們的客戶、供應商和團隊。我們期待繼續保持這一發展勢頭。

With that, I'll now hand the call over to Chris to provide more details on results and our expectations.

接下來，我將把電話交給克里斯，讓他詳細介紹結果和我們的預期。

Thanks, Mike. Fourth quarter sales increased 8% year-over-year on a non-GAAP basis. The average euro-dollar exchange rate for the quarter was $1.14 to EUR 1, below our forecast and expectation of $1.15 and below the $1.19 in the fourth quarter of 2020. Changes in foreign currencies understated sales growth by approximately $73 million year-over-year and had an approximately $58 million larger negative impact than we originally forecasted.

謝謝，麥克。第四季銷售額以非GAAP準則計算年增8%。本季歐元兌美元平均匯率為1歐元兌1.14美元，低於我們先前預測的1.15美元，也低於2020年第四季的1.19美元。外幣匯率變動導致銷售額年減約7,300萬美元，其負面影響比我們最初預測的約5,800萬美元。

Fourth quarter gross margin of 13.3% returned to its highest level since Q1 of 2017. Gross margin improved year-over-year in global components in each of our operating regions and enterprise computing solutions in both regions. Operating expense increased slightly as a percentage of sales during the fourth quarter but decreased as a percentage of gross profit.

第四季毛利率為13.3%，重回2017年第一季以來的最高水準。全球零件業務在各營運區域的毛利率以及企業運算解決方案業務在兩個區域的毛利率均較去年同期成長。第四季營業費用佔銷售額的比例略有上升，但佔毛利潤的比例下降。

As a reminder, many of our value-added services and solutions can be independent to the sale of electronic components and therefore contribute more meaningfully to profit than to sales.

需要提醒的是，我們的許多加值服務和解決方案可以獨立於電子元件的銷售，因此對利潤的貢獻比對銷售額的貢獻更有意義。

Interest expense was slightly above our prior expectation. This was mainly attributable to higher interest rates on floating rate debt but also due to the issuance of $500 million of 2.95% 10-year notes. The proceeds were mainly used to meet the recent maturity of $350 million of 3.5% 7-year notes.

利息支出略高於預期。這主要歸因於浮動利率債務利率上升，以及發行了5億美元2.95%的10年期票據。所得款項主要用於償還近期到期的3.5億美元3.5%的7年票據。

Fourth quarter tax rate was slightly below our expectations. This was primarily due to the timing of discrete tax items, and we also saw some favorability in regional profit mix. Our long-term target effective tax rate remains 23% to 25%.

第四季實際稅率略低於預期。這主要是由於個別稅項的課稅時間安排，以及區域利潤結構的一些有利因素。我們的長期目標實際稅率仍為23%至25%。

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. Fourth quarter operating cash flow was $28 million. Compared to the third quarter, DSOs and inventory days lengthened but were naturally offset by an increase in our payable days. As a result, our cash cycle of approximately 54 days was 3 days longer than the third quarter.

接下來看一下資產負債表和現金流量表。第四季經營現金流量為2800萬美元。與第三季相比，應收帳款週轉天數和存貨週轉天數有所延長，但應付帳款週轉天數的增加自然抵消了這些影響。因此，我們的現金週轉週期約為54天，比第三季延長了3天。

As Mike mentioned earlier, with returns metrics such as return on invested capital and return on working capital at the highest level in our modern history, we are being mindful of incremental working capital investments but also want to capitalize on the strong demand environment. Our liquidity position is the best in the history of our company and continues to improve.

正如麥克先前所提到的，鑑於投資回報率和營運資本回報率等指標均處於公司近代史上的最高水平，我們既謹慎控制營運資本的增量投資，也希望充分利用強勁的需求環境。我們目前的流動性狀況為公司歷史上最佳，並且還在持續改善中。

Leverage, as measured by total or net debt to EBITDA, is at its lowest level in over 10 years and was slightly lower than the third quarter. We returned approximately $250 million to shareholders for the third quarter in a row through our share repurchase plan. These are the largest single quarter share repurchases in Arrow's history, enabled by our strong profits and proactive working capital management.

以總負債或淨負債與 EBITDA 的比率衡量的槓桿率已降至十多年來的最低水平，略低於第三季。我們透過股票回購計畫連續第三個季度向股東返還了約 2.5 億美元。這是 Arrow 公司史上單季規模最大的股票回購，得益於我們強勁的獲利能力和積極的營運資本管理。

We repurchased $900 million worth of shares in 2021, by far the largest single year of repurchases in our history. We reduced diluted shares by approximately 8% over the course of the year. We remain committed to returning cash to shareholders by adding an additional $600 million to our authorization during the month of December. And as of right now, we have approximately $763 million remaining on our share repurchase authorization plan.

2021年，我們回購了價值9億美元的股票，這是公司史上單年回購規模最大的一次。年內，我們的稀釋股份減少了約8%。我們將繼續致力於向股東返還現金，並在12月追加了6億美元的回購授權。截至目前，我們的股票回購授權計畫中還剩餘約7.63億美元。

We're confident that we are repurchasing shares below their intrinsic value based on increasing return on invested capital and return on working capital.

我們有信心，我們以低於其內在價值的價格回購股票，這是基於不斷提高投資資本回報率和營運資本回報率的結果。

Please keep in mind that the information I shared during this call is a high-level summary of our financial results. For more detail regarding the business segment results, please refer to the CFO commentary published on our website this morning.

請注意，我在本次電話會議中分享的資訊是我們財務表現的概要概述。有關各業務部門業績的更多詳情，請參閱今天上午發佈在我們網站上的財務長評論。

Now turning to guidance. Midpoint of sales and EPS guidance imply all-time first quarter records. Midpoint global component sales guidance would be an all-time record for any core. Our guidance reflects continued strong operating leverage for global components on a year-over-year basis, with profit growing several times faster than sales.

現在來看業績指引。銷售額和每股收益指引的中位數意味著第一季將創歷史新高。全球零件銷售額指引的中位數也將創下任何核心業務的歷史新高。我們的指引反映了全球零件業務持續強勁的營運槓桿作用，利潤成長率將遠超銷售成長。

Our forecast suggests enterprise computing solutions profits grow slightly year-over-year as reported and at a somewhat higher rate year-over-year, adjusted for currency. We estimate an approximately $160 million headwind to sales and $0.10 headwind to EPS growth due to the strengthening U.S. dollar, principally compared to the euro.

我們的預測顯示，企業計算解決方案業務的利潤按報告數據將略微同比增長，經匯率調整後，同比增長幅度將略高。我們預計，美元走強（主要相對於歐元）將對銷售額造成約1.6億美元的不利影響，並對每股盈餘成長造成0.10美元的不利影響。

Finally, please note that the CFO commentary includes information on our fiscal calendar closing dates. Our 2022 quarter closing dates are mostly aligned to those of 2021.

最後，請注意，財務長的評論中包含有關我們財政年度結算日期的資訊。我們2022年的季度結算日期與2021年基本一致。

With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

接下來，我將把電話轉交給接線生進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自花旗集團的吉姆·蘇瓦。

It's a high-profile job and just a great opportunity. So this is a career thing, and that's why people on my team, just hush-hush, yes, we're meeting with Bruno Mars for dinner.

這是一份備受矚目的工作，也是一個絕佳的機會。這關係到我的職業生涯，所以我們團隊的人都守口如瓶，沒錯，我們要和布魯諾馬爾斯共進晚餐。

We have -- Jim -- I think Jim is doing something else.

我們有——吉姆——我想吉姆在做別的事情。

Yes. Your next question is from Nikolay Todorov with Longbow Research.

是的。您的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 Nikolay Todorov。

And congrats on great results. Mike, first, I want to start with a comment that you see reasons to believe that the overhead pricing is going to be better cycle-over-cycle. Do you have any type of framework that you have -- you've been thinking? Obviously, it's -- how should -- how do you think prices will evolve? Traditionally, obviously, they've been coming down cycle-over-cycle. But what do you see different? And how do you see them evolving going forward?

恭喜你取得如此佳績。麥克，首先，我想先談談你認為管理費用定價會逐年下降的看法。你有沒有什麼思路或框架？顯然，你認為價格會如何變動？傳統上，價格一直在逐年下降。但你認為有哪些不同？你認為未來價格會如何變動？

Well, if you take this cycle compared to past cycles, past cycles were purely demand, and then there was the expectation that you could get more efficient, thereby getting more product in. This cycle is a little different because you've got inflation hitting, too. And that's raw material prices, and prices for raw products of building semiconductors has gone up.

如果將本輪週期與以往週期進行比較，以往週期主要受需求驅動，且預期生產效率會提高，從而增加產量。而本輪週期則略有不同，因為通貨膨脹也隨之而來。原物料價格上漲，半導體製造所需的原物料價格也隨之上漲。

So there's a structural change there that's not expected to have those raw materials come down anytime soon. The same thing you've seen now in transportation of those products all around the world, those prices are up at the same time and again, not expected to come down. And some of that would come down with fuel cost rate, but you don't see any limiting factor there right now other than that's likely to go up again before it comes down.

因此，這裡存在一種結構性變化，預計這些原材料價格不會很快下降。正如您現在看到的，這些產品在全球的運輸價格也在上漲，而且預計不會下降。雖然燃油成本可能會有所下降，但目前除了燃油成本可能在下降之前再次上漲之外，您看不到任何其他限制因素。

So you have that, which means the price of the component itself is higher, where the cost to manufacture is higher. And I don't see that changing in the near term. And I certainly don't see that changing, going from cycle to cycle here.

所以，這意味著零件本身的價格更高，因為製造成本也更高。而且我認為這種情況短期內不會改變。當然，我也不認為這種情況會隨著週期的變化而改變。

Okay. That's helpful. As a follow-up, I think you guys do a survey of your customers. Obviously, you're doing your due diligence. And sometimes, you've shared findings of that survey on the calls regarding customer inventory. And I think you touched on the call that you're monitoring the situation carefully. And despite that there are some shortages, I might have heard that you said that there is some signs that inventory is uneven. I don't know.

好的，這很有幫助。作為後續，我想你們應該會進行客戶調查。顯然，你們在盡職調查。而且，你們有時會在電話會議中分享關於客戶庫存的調查結果。我想你們在電話會議中也提到過，你們正在密切注意情況。儘管目前存在一些缺貨，但我好像聽到你們說過，庫存分佈有些不均衡。我不太確定。

How would you characterize inventory downstream at your customers? And maybe what's the feedback on the survey that you guys do each quarter on your customers?

您如何描述客戶下游的庫存狀況？另外，你們每季都會進行客戶調查，客戶回饋如何？

Yes. Yes, that's -- this is a highly interesting question because prices have gone up significantly in semiconductors, and it really started to hit in the fourth quarter and going into the first quarter. So customers' inventory values are going up. So whatever they had traditionally in stock, they've probably gone up by somewhere between 10% and 20% now. And so they probably are reacting to the fact that they have more inventory dollars than they've ever had.

是的。這的確是一個非常有趣的問題，因為半導體價格大幅上漲，尤其是在第四季和第一季開始上漲。因此，客戶的庫存價值也在增加。他們以往的庫存量，現在可能增加了10%到20%。他們之所以採取這樣的措施，很可能是因為他們的庫存金額比以往任何時候都高。

Now in our situation here, our actual units that we're getting from the manufacturers have gone down quarter-on-quarter, which is another reason to believe that the demand situation isn't going to fix itself anytime soon. So what you have is customers that have a mix of product that may be out of the SKU a bit, which is slowing their manufacturing time, but still, there's a lot of hand to mouth.

就我們目前的情況而言，我們從製造商實際收到的產品數量環比下降，這也進一步印證了需求狀況短期內不會好轉。因此，客戶的產品組合中可能存在一些缺貨的情況，這導致他們的生產週期延長，但即便如此，仍然面臨著供不應求的局面。

But again, inventory levels are up. Just like they're up here, you'll see that, you'll eventually ask us, but that inventory value is up, units are actually down.

但是，庫存水準又上升了。就像這裡一樣，你最終會看到，你會問我們的，庫存價值上升了，但實際數量卻下降了。

Okay. Helpful. Last question for me, and I'll go back in the queue. On the ECS side, I think in the CFO commentary, there was a note that you're showing -- you're seeing increased customer engagement and I think, order activity. What else can you share in terms of are you seeing upticks in activities on the hardware side, and it's a matter of supply chain improvements?

好的，很有幫助。這是我的最後一個問題，問完我就重新排隊了。關於ECS方面，我記得財務長的評論裡提到過，你們看到了客戶參與度和訂單量的提升。關於硬體方面的業務成長，以及供應鏈的改善，你們還能分享些什麼嗎？

Or is that activity more so like you talked how -- because of the supply chain constraints, more projects are moving to the cloud? And how would that reflect on your ECS top line over the next couple of quarters?

或者，正如您所說，由於供應鏈的限制，越來越多的專案正在遷移到雲端？這又將如何影響您未來幾季的ECS營收？

I'll be happy to take that question. Actually, if you look at our progress in ECS, I'll take you back to something Mike said about the way we treat reported sales. We've been pivoting our focus to the market for hybrid and multi-cloud for some time. And that really is all about all things IT as a Service. And that implies more software, more cloud and more services. And that's going to not look as good in the reported sales line, but it's really going to show up nicely when we get to the operating margin line.

我很樂意回答這個問題。實際上，如果你看看我們在ECS領域的進展，我會提到Mike之前說過的關於我們如何處理已公佈銷售額的問題。我們已經將重心轉向混​​合雲和多雲市場一段時間了。而這其實就是IT即服務（ITaaS）的核心。這意味著更多的軟體、更多的雲端服務以及更多的業務。這在已公佈的銷售額中可能看起來不太好，但當我們計算營業利潤率時，就會看到非常明顯的成效。

And I think you saw some of that in our Q4 results. We think it validates that we're in the right market space for our value-based selling motion, and frankly, we just need more scale. And I think the -- some of the underlying indicators we're seeing from that business are encouraging.

我認為您已經從我們第四季度的業績中看到了一些端倪。我們認為這驗證了我們以價值為導向的銷售模式在市場中定位正確，坦白說，我們只是需要擴大規模。而且我認為，我們從該業務中看到的一些潛在指標令人鼓舞。

We might be a quarter or 2 away from seeing even more momentum. But if you look at the market headwinds, either supply chain or pandemic-related restrictions, I think they're ultimately transitory. So we're expecting to see even more improvement from that business across the course of 2022.

我們或許還需要一到兩個季度才能看到更大的成長動能。但如果你檢視市場逆風，無論是供應鏈問題還是疫情相關的限制，我認為它們最終都是暫時的。因此，我們預計該業務在2022年將有更大的改善。

Your next question is from Melissa Fairbanks with Raymond James & Associates.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James & Associates 的 Melissa Fairbanks。

Just wondering if you could highlight any hotspots where maybe supply constraints worsened in the quarter. You did mention that unit volumes were down in terms of your inventory. Just wondering if there was one area in particular that was worse than the other. Or if you're -- what we've heard is that some of the suppliers are kind of playing whack-a-mole, chasing constraints in one area from the other.

我想問一下，您能否重點指出本季哪些地區的供應緊張可能加劇？您提到庫存量有所下降。我想知道是否有某個地區的情況尤其糟糕。或者，我們聽說一些供應商似乎在疲於奔命，疲於應對一個地區的供應緊張。

So I like your analogy there, and unfortunately, that fits. We don't have a lot of suppliers that we could say are up-to-date on everything. And again, the -- I think the golden group piece that you're talking about is different for every customer.

所以，我很喜歡你剛才的比喻，很遺憾，確實很貼切。我們沒有很多供應商能做到面面俱到、掌握最新資訊。而且，你提到的關鍵要素——我認為每個客戶的情況都不一樣。

So every customer has a shortage of product that is keeping them from producing something, and it may or may not have overlap with other customers. So the moral of the story is we're doing more expediting here than we've ever done.

所以，每個顧客都面臨產品短缺的問題，導致他們無法生產某些產品，這種情況可能與其他顧客的情況重疊，也可能不重疊。因此，關鍵在於，我們現在比以往任何時候都更需要加快生產進度。

We are on the phone with suppliers more than we ever have been. And delinquencies continue, I even hate to say continue to rise, but our demand curves are very strong right now. And we don't see catching up all of 2022, I can tell you that, because anything coming online is very modest compared to what's out there right now.

我們現在與供應商的通話量比以往任何時候都多。拖欠貨款的情況仍在持續，我甚至不願承認，拖欠情況還在繼續上升，但我們目前的需求曲線非常強勁。我可以肯定地告訴大家，我們預計到2022年全年都無法彌補先前的缺口，因為任何即將上線的訂單量與目前的市場規模相比都非常有限。

Okay. Great. Yes. That's -- we're kind of hearing the same thing across the board from your suppliers as well. Just wondering, so your -- what you said was that supply is not going to ease meaningfully or you're going to be in delinquencies through 2022. Is there any sort of baseline assumption that we should use for how much that's constraining your revenue upside? Or are there just too many moving parts to call that?

好的。太好了。是的。我們從你們的供應商也聽到了類似的說法。我想問一下，你們之前說過供應不會有明顯緩解，否則你們的貨款拖欠問題會持續到2022年。那麼，對於這種情況對你們收入成長的限製程度，我們是否可以設定一個基準假設？或者說，影響因素太多，難以做出準確判斷？

I think it's a lot of moving parts. And the reason is, for example, you might have seen a bit of a drop in Asia in the fourth quarter, which is typical seasonality for Asia. However, more product went into North America and Europe. So product is moving around based on demand, based on where the suppliers have constraints and really attempting to keep everybody moving as far as their production goes. So there's a lot of hand to mouth. There's a lot of work being done on behalf of the customers to make sure that they can continue to produce their products.

我認為這其中涉及很多方面。例如，您可能已經看到第四季度亞洲地區的銷售量略有下降，這在亞洲屬於典型的季節性波動。然而，更多的產品流向了北美和歐洲。因此，產品供應會根據需求、供應商的限制以及各方努力維持生產的需要而有所調整。所以，目前的情況比較捉襟見肘。為了確保客戶能夠繼續生產產品，各方都在做大量的工作。

Yes, our -- we are constrained right now due to supply. And you see our first quarter forecast, and what that is, that's purely a supply forecast still compared to a demand forecast. That's what we think. We're going to get in enough supply to be able to deliver those sales [to you] in the first quarter. And when we start to see it free up, we obviously will acknowledge that, and we'll go to more inventory control, but we're not seeing that at this point.

是的，我們目前確實受到供應限制。您可以看到我們第一季的預測，那隻是供應預測，與需求預測相比，我們目前的想法是，我們能夠獲得足夠的供應，在第一季滿足您的訂單需求。一旦供應開始緩解，我們當然會採取相應的措施，加強庫存控制，但目前我們還沒有看到這種情況。

The other thing I might highlight for our first quarter, the reason that we could come out as strong as we did, is that our inventories were up a little bit in some of the products that we were delinquent on, and we're going to be able to fulfill those needs. So we have more confidence in our first quarter number forecast as being more accurate than I could say we have been for the last 3 or 4.

關於第一季業績，我想重點強調一點，也是我們能夠取得如此強勁業績的原因，是我們部分之前拖欠貨款的產品庫存有所增加，我們能夠滿足這些需求。因此，我們對第一季的業績預測比過去三、四個季度更有信心，也更加準確。

Your next question is from Matt Sheerin with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Matt Sheerin。

I wanted just to ask regarding the strength in the gross margin you're seeing on the component side. A multiyear record, it looked like operating margin was the best number in 20-plus years. And obviously, as you said, you're benefiting from favorable pricing, also mix, [where they go down, the other] regions up.

我想問一下關於零件業務方面強勁的毛利率。多年來一直保持著最高紀錄，營業利潤率似乎也達到了20多年來的最佳水準。顯然，正如您所說，您受益於有利的定價策略以及產品組合調整，即某些地區利潤下降，而其他地區利潤上升。

So my question is, how sustainable do you see that over the next 2 to 3 quarters? Mike, you're saying, basically, it sounds like you're pretty much booked, and you sound confident in the next couple of quarters. So should we expect elevated margins here for the near term?

所以我的問題是，您認為這種情況在未來兩到三個季度內能持續多久？麥克，你基本上是說，聽起來你們的訂單已經基本上排滿了，而且你們對未來幾季充滿信心。那麼我們是否可以預期短期內利潤率會很高？

I think what you'll see is some hovering around and changes based on customer mix and product mix, Matt. I expect our gross margins to come down slightly in the first quarter just because of some mix issues. Fourth quarter was highly engineering -- a high level of engineered products that we were able to get back into the marketplace. And we expect that to subside some for the first quarter and have a more level mix, not only across the regions, but also with product and with customer base.

馬特，我認為你會看到一些波動，並會根據客戶和產品組合的變化而有所調整。我預計第一季的毛利率會略有下降，這主要是由於一些產品組合問題。第四季我們主要專注於工程產品—我們成功地將大量工程產品重新推出市場。我們預計第一季這種情況會有所緩解，產品組合會更加均衡，不僅在各個地區之間，而且在產品和客戶群方面也是如此。

We didn't have a lot of phone activity or high-level computing activity customers in the fourth quarter, and some of those have demand again going into the first quarter. But very little fluctuation over the next couple of quarters, Matt.

第四季我們的電話業務量和高階運算業務量都不大，其中一些客戶在第一季又恢復了需求。但未來幾季波動應該很小，馬特。

Okay. Great. And just regarding the outlook for computing, it sounds like component constraints is an issue there. But in terms of outlook, what you're hearing from your reseller customers in terms of backlog projects that need to be done at customers, what's the outlook as you look through the rest of the year?

好的，太好了。關於電腦產業的展望，聽起來組件供應不足確實是個問題。但就前景而言，您從經銷商客戶那裡了解到的待辦事項狀況如何？您對今年剩餘時間的展望是什麼？

Yes. I'll let Sean go into more detail. But in general, we're seeing higher demand now and higher demand for the services that we're providing. And a lot of the slowdown is on the hardware side, which pushes those out. Sean, I'll let you add some more color to that.

是的。我請肖恩詳細解釋一下。但總的來說，我們現在看到需求更高，對我們提供的服務的需求也更高。而許多放緩的情況都發生在硬體方面，這導致硬體交付延遲。肖恩，你再補充一些細節吧。

So that's right, Matt. I think Mike captured it. I would just add that since sort of mid last year, we've seen lead times for most of our hardware businesses nearly double. That probably will be the case for a couple or 3 quarters until the whole semiconductor supply situation starts to normalize.

沒錯，馬特。我覺得麥克說得很到位。我還要補充一點，從去年年中開始，我們大部分硬體業務的交貨週期幾乎翻了一番。這種情況可能會持續兩到三個季度，直到整個半導體供應情況開始恢復正常。

But the good news is our visibility to the pipeline for our channel partners and users is only improving because they're giving us backlog with visibility much further out. So that gives us pretty good confidence that demand remains strong. And again, I think as some of the limitations to traditional data center business continue to abate, things will ultimately look up even more nicely.

但好消息是，我們通路合作夥伴和用戶對銷售管道的可見度正在不斷提高，因為他們提供的積壓訂單資訊更加清晰，也更能反映未來的發展趨勢。這讓我們對市場需求的強勁表現充滿信心。而且，我認為隨著傳統資料中心業務的一些限制逐漸消除，最終前景會更加光明。

Your next question is from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·夸特羅奇。

I'm curious, your leverage remains at an all-time low. And I guess, given your commentary is very positive on the forward demand, how do we think about what the right level for leverage is in the context of where your shares are trading today and then your working capital needs and just the expectations of interest rates increasing this year?

我很好奇，你們的槓桿率仍然處於歷史低點。鑑於你們對未來需求的預測非常樂觀，我想，考慮到你們目前的股價、營運資金需求以及今年利率可能上升的預期，我們應該如何看待合適的槓桿水平？

Well, I think if you look at the working capital since the beginning of this uptick, if you will, or this demand cycle, we've had to put less working capital in per dollar sale than we ever have in the past. So there's a -- and if you would think any time you've had growth rates, like we've had over the last 2 years, in the past, we wouldn't have been able to cash-flow, and this time, we're cash-flowing on a higher basis than we have.

我認為，如果你觀察一下自從這波成長（或說這輪需求週期）開始以來的營運資本，你會發現我們每銷售一美元所需的營運資本比以往任何時候都少。所以，如果你認為過去任何時候出現像過去兩年這樣的成長率，我們都無法維持現金流，那麼這一次，我們的現金流水準反而更高了。

I'm going to say expect more of the same of what you've seen because there is no physical way to get a whole ahead of the inventory demand and get enough inventory in here to catch up with that demand. So just the market itself keeps us from spending the money on inventory, where, frankly, I would love to have it.

我想說的是，情況還會和之前差不多，因為實際上我們根本無法提前囤貨，也無法保證庫存能滿足需求。所以，市場本身就限制了我們把錢花在庫存上，說實話，我非常希望能夠做到這一點。

But I know if all the inventory shortages come in, in one time, this cycle is over. And we're just not going to see it. I don't think it's a concern, nor do I think it's going to be an increase at least for this year, 2022. Chris, do you want to add something there?

但我知道，如果所有庫存短缺同時出現，這輪週期就結束了。而我們根本不會看到這種情況。我不認為這會是個問題，至少在2022年不會出現成長。克里斯，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I would just add, given that, Joe, I mean, we've been very aggressive obviously with the buybacks, $900 million last year. At current valuations, safe to say, that does not slow down.

我還要補充一點，喬，有鑑於此，我的意思是，我們顯然在股票回購方面非常積極，去年就回購了9億美元。以目前的估值來看，可以肯定地說，回購步伐不會放緩。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just a question, we're starting to see the component shortages actually impact the guys who make the equipment to increase semiconductor capacity. So how do you maybe prioritize your customers? Because it seems like you're at a position where you could help kind of alleviate some of the supply issues by advocating for certain components to go to customers that could help increase semiconductor supply.

明白了，這很有幫助。還有一個問題，我們開始看到元件短缺實際上影響了那些生產用於提升半導體產能設備的廠商。那麼，您是如何安排客戶優先順序的呢？因為您似乎可以利用自身優勢，爭取將某些元件優先提供給那些能夠幫助提升半導體供應的客戶，從而緩解部分供應問題。

Yes. What I'm going to say is everybody is getting what they can, hand to mouth, to produce their equipment. But do I stop giving semiconductors to people that are making heart machines for people that are doing transplants? Do I stop giving semiconductors to other industries that are helping people? Do I shut down automotive? No. The answer is everybody has to manage their inventory effectively in a cycle.

是的。我想說的是，每個人都在盡力而為，勉強維持生產設備。但我會停止向那些製造心臟移植手術設備的廠商提供半導體嗎？我會停止向其他造福人類的產業提供半導體嗎？我會關閉汽車產業嗎？當然不會。答案是，每個人都必須有效管理庫存，使其循環運作。

And as long as those people have put their orders in, in a first-in, first-out basis, that's how they're being supported largely by the semiconductor manufacturers. And we're not talking about one product here. We're talking about thousands of products and in the case of the broader market, millions of products.

只要這些人按照先到先得的原則下了訂單，半導體製造商就能主要透過這種方式為他們提供支援。而且我們說的不是單一產品，而是成千上萬種產品，就整個市場而言，更是數百萬種產品。

So no, you just can't start taking at your own whim and cutting people out of what's rightly theirs to give to another industry. And that doesn't say we don't lean in and try to get extra product for that type of a situation. But everybody is feeling the pain equally here.

所以，不行，你不能隨心所欲地拿走別人應得的東西，然後轉手給其他行業。當然，這並不意味著我們在這種情況下不會積極爭取額外的產品。但現在的情況是，每個人都同樣承受著損失。

And I don't know. You can say they're building the equipment, but we -- what fab is it going into, and what's the end result going to be as a result of them getting more product right now? I don't know that answer, and I don't know that that's a proven statement.

我不知道。你可以說他們在製造設備，但是──這些設備最終會送到哪個工廠生產？他們現在獲得更多產品後，最終結果會是什麼？我不知道答案，我也不知道這是否是一個已被證實的說法。

Your next question is from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs & Company.

下一個問題來自高盛公司的 Toshiya Hari。

And congrats on the very strong results. I had one clarification question and then a follow-up. As my clarification question, just on inventory, I think, Mike, you mentioned that value was up, but -- I'm sorry, value was up, but volume was down on your balance sheet. Was that a Q-over-Q statement or a year-over-year? Or was that both? And do you think you can build inventory in the current quarter?

恭喜你們取得了非常優異的業績。我有一個疑問需要澄清，還有一個後續問題。關於庫存，我想問的是，Mike，你提到價值上升了，但——抱歉，是價值上升了，但資產負債表上的數量下降了。這是季度環比還是年比數據？還是兩者都有？你認為本季可以增加庫存嗎？

That's a statement for both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Our forecast is not anticipating us building inventory units.

這是對季度環比和年度同比數據的說法。我們的預測並未包含增加庫存單元的預期。

Got it. Okay.

明白了。好的。

And no, I don't think we can over the next couple of quarters, just to finish that thought for you.

不，我認為在接下來的幾個季度裡我們無法做到這一點，我再補充一下我的想法。

Got it. Okay. Very clear. And then my question, I just wanted to get your thoughts on sort of the competitive landscape. Obviously, in the near term, the higher tide, I suppose, is lifting all boats, and you guys are performing really well. As you think about your business longer-term, the competitive dynamics between, I guess, distri and direct is something that I wanted to ask about.

明白了。好的，非常清楚。接下來我想問的是，您對目前的競爭格局有什麼看法。顯然，短期來看，整體市場行情不錯，大家都受益，你們的表現也確實非常出色。但從長遠來看，我想了解的是，分銷和直銷之間的競爭動態。

TI, in particular, they continue to talk about the advantages they see in going direct to their customers. They hosted a call earlier this morning and talked about ti.com and those kind of things. I think your other suppliers are taking a much more balanced approach.

尤其是德州儀器（TI），他們一直在強調直接面對客戶的優勢。今天早上他們召開了一次電話會議，討論了ti.com網站以及其他相關事宜。我認為你們的其他供應商採取了更平衡的策略。

But just curious, from your perspective, how are you thinking about that dynamic between distri and direct? And I guess, more importantly, within the distri industry, what have you done, I guess, over the past couple of years during the pandemic to better position the company as you come out of the pandemic?

但我很好奇，從您的角度來看，您如何看待分銷和直銷之間的這種動態關係？更重要的是，在分銷行業內部，在過去幾年疫情期間，您採取了哪些措施來更好地幫助公司在疫情結束後佔據有利地位？

Well, if you -- there's a lot of questions in there, first off, and I'll try to hit them all and be as concise as I can. First off, on the changing dynamics of distribution, I haven't really seen a lot at this point with those changing dynamics. Individually, with different manufacturers, sure, they have changed their dynamics, but yet some have increased their participation in distribution.

嗯，首先，這裡有很多問題，我會盡量一一解答，並儘可能簡潔明了。首先，關於分銷格局的變化，目前我還沒有看到太多這方面的變化。當然，就個別製造商而言，他們的分銷模式肯定有所改變，但有些製造商也增加了在分銷管道的參與度。

So as you said, I think there's a balance out there, and there's a balance that will be out there for a long time. Also, we've seen huge increases in our engineering business over the last 2 years now. And in fact, we're seeing a marketable change in customers looking to redesign some old products to make sure that they can still manufacture with many types of products as they can. So we're seeing that come into play.

正如您所說，我認為市場存在一種平衡，而且這種平衡將長期存在。此外，過去兩年我們的工程業務也實現了大幅成長。事實上，我們看到客戶正在尋求重新設計一些舊產品，以確保他們能夠繼續生產盡可能多的不同類型的產品，這在市場上引起了積極的影響。因此，我們正在見證這種趨勢的發生。

Also, our supply chain business is really way up, and that is some of the arrangements we have with customers to either ship their products directly to them, handle freight only or do handling of their inventory, those types of activities are up, too. But the one activity that is way up right now is going out there and finding shortage components for customers. And I expect that, that business will always be there for us, but it's heightened activity right now.

此外，我們的供應鏈業務也大幅成長，包括我們與客戶達成的一些協議，例如直接向他們發貨、僅負責貨運或庫存管理等等，這些業務量都在增長。但目前成長最快的業務是為客戶尋找缺貨零件。我預計這項業務會一直存在，但目前確實更加活躍。

Then you just think more broad with the digital changes we've made in the business for customers to come online and do some of their own designs, to setting up supply chain over the web, to the cloud business in ERP and the ECS business. So we've done an awful lot, if I have to highlight that, over the last couple of years. And those businesses are just starting to come online and expect to be high producers in the future. So it's not all about products.

然後，你就可以更廣泛地思考我們在業務中所做的數位化變革，例如讓客戶能夠在線上完成一些自己的設計，建立基於網路的供應鏈，以及ERP和ECS業務中的雲端業務。所以，如果非要強調的話，過去幾年我們做了很多工作。這些業務才剛開始上線，並期望在未來成為高產企業。因此，一切不僅僅關乎產品。

And congrats again.

再次恭喜。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is from William Stein with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

Mike, I'm hoping you can talk about the timing of impact of price increases from suppliers, whether, when they announce that, does that affect your backlog and does it affect your customers' backlog onto you at the same time. Or is there a timing difference that might allow you to capture a better margin today?

麥克，我希望你能談談供應商提價的時間影響，例如他們宣布提價時，是否會影響你的訂單積壓，以及是否也會同時影響你的客戶向你提出的訂單積壓。或者是否存在時間上的差異，讓你能夠現在就獲得更高的利潤？

So far, what we've seen is sort of immediate price increases. And those immediate price increases affect everything. And really, that is due to the nature of increases that the suppliers have received in making their product. And that has to be passed on because they're not going to take losses, of course, on what they're selling to get more product in the market.

目前來看，我們看到的是價格的快速上漲。而這種快速上漲影響到方方面面。這實際上是由於供應商生產成本的增加所致。他們當然不會為了增加市場供應而虧本銷售產品，所以這些成本最終必須轉嫁給消費者。

So really, there's an immediacy of this that I've never seen before, ever. Usually, they say we're going to do it over the next couple of quarters, and we're going to hit this family or that family. It's the first time we've seen it. And by the way, the price increases are still coming by some of the manufacturers that are getting a late start on it. So it's not over, and it's not going to go away. I guess that would be the answer, and it's more immediate than it's ever been.

所以，這次的情況確實非常緊迫，我以前從未見過。通常，他們會說我們會在接下來的幾季逐步推進，我們會針對某個家庭或某個家庭。這是我們第一次看到這種情況。順便說一句，一些反應遲緩的製造商也開始提價了。所以，這件事還沒結束，也不會消失。我想這就是答案，而且它比以往任何時候都更加迫在眉睫。

So no, the opportunity to really raise your margin because of price increases, it's not the activity that's on your mind right now. This is a supply activity market.

所以，價格上漲帶來的利潤空間並非你現在關注的重點。這是一個供應型市場。

I appreciate that. I wonder also, you touched on this for a moment earlier, you said there's a business where you just chase shortages. I'm not sure if I'm -- I'm sure I'm not capturing all of the work that goes on there with that small explanation, but it was an interesting dynamic that you call out as a specific business.

我很感激。另外，您之前也簡單提到過，有些產業專門追逐短缺。我不確定我是否——我肯定我剛才的解釋無法涵蓋其中所有的運作方式，但您提到的這種特定行業的運作模式確實很有意思。

But what I'm hoping you might address is the portion of revenue that you're doing in the components business that relates to sort of these established franchise agreements, where there's price protection, which is not -- is probably not super relevant in this cycle. But those sorts of agreements versus more arm's length transactions, where you might be able to eke out better margins, can you remind us what the split is between those 2 types of businesses and whether it's changed in the last year?

但我希望您能談談零件業務中與現有特許經營協議相關的收入部分，這些協議通常包含價格保護條款，而這在當前的經濟週期中可能並不十分重要。這類協議與更公平的交易（您或許能從中獲得更高的利潤）相比，您能否提醒我們這兩種業務類型的佔比是多少，以及過去一年中是否發生了變化？

Yes. And I probably misspoke. It is an activity we're doing, not a specific business. So that's one way to put it, is that we have groups of people that are doing nothing but trying to chase down product of maybe where we sold something before, and that customer isn't using it anymore. And we can divert that product to another customer, and then the transaction comes through us. But the selling company sets the price, and the buying company decides whether they want it or not. So that does exist.

是的。我可能說錯了。這只是我們正在做的一項活動，而不是一項具體的業務。這麼說吧，我們有一些團隊專門負責追蹤之前售出的產品，像是某個客戶不再使用的產品。我們可以把這些產品轉售給其他客戶，交易仍然透過我們完成。但價格由售貨公司設定，購買公司再決定是否購買。所以，這種模式確實存在。

And as far as putting a cost on it, I think what you're seeing is the business is the business right now, the mix is the mix. If, for example, demand starts to get fulfilled, then that activity I just talked about will go down, too. But it will probably stay the same percentage of the business even when the demand goes the other way because there's always shortages out there.

至於成本估算，我認為目前的情況是，業務就是業務，產品組合就是產品組合。例如，如果需求開始被滿足，那麼我剛才提到的那項業務活動也會減少。但即使需求反過來，它佔業務的比例可能保持不變，因為市場上總是存在短缺。

And so that activity still goes. So I don't see a structural change in that in the future. It just happens to be more because there's more shortages right now. But also, sales are elevated, right? So you've got both things going on at the same time.

所以這種活動仍在繼續。因此，我認為未來不會出現結構性變化。只是目前供應短缺加劇了這種情況。但同時，銷售額也上升了，對吧？所以這兩種情況同時發生。

I think what you see right now in our margins is mix between U.S., Asia, Europe, same mix issues we've had before. And the same thing goes for mix issues on the type of product that goes out the door. And other than that, we shouldn't have any other changes that take place over the next year.

我認為目前我們利潤率的構成問題主要體現在美國、亞洲和歐洲市場之間的組成上，這和我們之前遇到的情況一樣。出貨產品的類型構成也存在同樣的問題。除此之外，未來一年內應該不會有其他變化。

Your next question is from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的吉姆·蘇瓦。

I have a long-term kind of strategy question. We've been through the China trade wars, COVID, power outages, tsunamis, all these type of things. I was just wondering, Chris and Mike, are you having discussions with your suppliers or maybe even your customers about adjusting the model less from just in time and more inventory and housing stuff longer-term and even if it's like a price to carry or a consignment inventory.

我有一個關於長期戰略的問題。我們經歷了中美貿易戰、新冠疫情、停電、海嘯等等。克里斯和麥克，我想問你們是否在和供應商甚至客戶討論過調整業務模式，減少即時生產，增加庫存，並進行更長期的倉儲，例如採用持有價格或寄售庫存模式。

I'm just kind of wondering what's the next risk thing that they can navigate now that there some active discussions. And anything coming out of it? Or is it just discussions that maybe is different than last cycles?

我只是有點好奇，既然現在已經有一些正面的討論，他們接下來可以處理的風險是什麼？會有什麼結果嗎？還是這只是和以往週期不同的討論？

I think it's a great question, Jim. That's stuff that we think about here every day. And the answer to your question is, yes, of course, we're looking at housing situations for customers that possibly you would pay by the month or pay by the quarter or something like that. Then you have to get into the carrying costs and the working capital that goes into whose inventory is it.

吉姆，我覺得你問得很好。這些都是我們每天都在思考的問題。答案是肯定的，我們當然會考慮客戶的住房情況，例如按月或按季度付款之類的。然後，你還得考慮庫存持有成本和營運資金。

But yes, those kinds of models will start to materialize in the future. Although, what I can tell you with a high degree of confidence, nobody would have carried as much enough inventory to solve this problem. They might have had a quarter's worth of inventory, which would have protected them for 1 more quarter because nobody is going to put a year of inventory in across the board of everything that they need.

沒錯，這類模式未來一定會出現。不過，我可以非常肯定地說，沒有人會囤積那麼多庫存來解決這個問題。他們或許會儲備一個季度的庫存，但這只能勉強維持一個季度，因為沒人會囤積一年所需的所有庫存。

And typically, our lead times aren't that. What you're into now is you actually have to build fabs to get more product out the door. And that's just waiting out there because the demand is so high. And what is it? I heard 10 million less cars being built over the next year or 2. That's an awful lot of components, and that's an awful lot to catch up on.

通常情況下，我們的交貨週期不會這麼長。現在的問題是，你必須建廠才能提高產品出貨率。而這一切都是因為市場需求太高，所以只能等。具體情況是？我聽說未來一兩年內汽車產量將減少1000萬輛。這相當於大量的零件需求，需要補足的缺口非常巨大。

But the answer to your question is, yes, Jim, that is it. That's nirvana. We're working on those models right now. Those will be introduced. But first and foremost is just getting more supply for our current customers and getting them out of this problem so they can live another day for that problem you just talked about.

但你的問題的答案是肯定的，吉姆，就是這樣。那就是理想狀態。我們目前正在研究這些模型，它們將會推出。但首要任務是為現有客戶提供更多供應，幫助他們擺脫困境，這樣他們才能繼續應對你剛才提到的問題。

And I would now like to turn the call back over to Steve O'Brien for closing remarks.

現在我想把電話交還給史蒂夫·奧布萊恩，讓他做總結發言。

Thank you for -- everyone, for joining us today. If you have any questions, you can reach out to me. We appreciate your interest in Arrow Electronics, and have a nice day.

感謝各位今天蒞臨。如有任何疑問，歡迎隨時與我聯絡。感謝您對艾睿電子的關注，祝您愉快！

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。