艾睿電子 (ARW) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Arrow Electronics Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Rick Seidlitz, you may begin your conference.

大家好。我是羅伯，今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線生。現在，我謹代表艾睿電子歡迎各位參加2022年第四季財報電話會議。 （接線生提示）謝謝。里克·塞德利茨，您可以開始會議了。

Thanks, Rob. Good day, and welcome to the Arrow Electronics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. With us on the call today are Sean Kerins, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Raj Agrawal, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝羅伯。大家好，歡迎參加艾睿電子2022年第四季及全年財報電話會議。今天出席會議的有總裁兼執行長肖恩·克林斯，以及高級副總裁兼財務長拉傑·阿格拉瓦爾。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements, including statements about our business outlook, strategies and future financial results, which are based on predictions and our expectations as of today. Our actual results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including the risk factors in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings with the SEC. We undertake no obligation to update publicly or revise any of the forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出一些前瞻性陳述，包括關於我們業務展望、策略和未來財務表現的陳述，這些陳述均基於我們截至目前的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-K和10-Q文件中列明的風險因素，我們的實際業績可能與這些陳述有重大差異。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而公開更新或修訂任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

As a reminder, some of the figures we will discuss on today's call are non-GAAP measures. We have reconciled those to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results. You can access our earnings release at arrow. -- investor.arrow.com, along with our CFO commentary, the non-GAAP earnings reconciliation and a replay of this call. Following our prepared remarks today, we will be available to take your questions.

再次提醒，我們今天電話會議中將討論的部分數據為非GAAP指標。我們在獲利報告中已將這些非GAAP指標與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標進行了核對。這些非GAAP指標並非旨在取代我們的GAAP績效。您可造訪arrow.--investor.arrow.com查看我們的獲利報告，其中包含財務長的評論、非GAAP獲利核對錶以及本次電話會議的錄音。今天的發言結束後，我們將回答您的問題。

I will now hand the call to our President and CEO, Sean Kerins.

現在我將把電話交給我們的總裁兼執行長肖恩克林斯。

Thank you, Rick, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Before I talk about our most recent results, I wanted to reflect a bit on the past year in total, which continue to present Arrow with unique market conditions and challenges. It was truly special to lead this great company and our 22,000 dedicated employees as we met those challenges head on and help both our customers and suppliers succeed in this environment.

謝謝里克，也謝謝各位今天蒞臨。在談到我們最新的業績之前，我想先回顧過去一年，這一年裡，Arrow 持續面臨著獨特的市場環境和挑戰。能夠領導這家偉大的公司和我們 22,000 名敬業的員工，共同迎難而上，幫助我們的客戶和供應商在這樣的環境中取得成功，我深感榮幸。

In turn, we have delivered the strongest financial results of any year in the history of the company. And while I'm extremely proud of what we've accomplished, I know that the market conditions continue to evolve as we enter 2023, we'll be faced with new challenges and opportunities through which Arrow will continue to differentiate itself in the markets we serve, reflecting the commitment, strengths and aspirations of our entire global team.

反過來，我們也取得了公司史上最強勁的年度財務表現。雖然我為我們所取得的成就感到無比自豪，但我知道，隨著我們進入2023年，市場環境仍在不斷變化，我們將面臨新的挑戰和機會。 Arrow將繼續在所服務的市場中脫穎而出，這體現了我們整個全球團隊的承諾、實力和抱負。

Now turning to our results. I'm delighted to report that the fourth quarter was in line with our expectations and 1 of our best quarters ever, despite some challenging conditions. Our sales grew by 8% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, fueled by both growth in our global components and our global enterprise computing solutions businesses.

現在來看我們的業績。我很高興地報告，儘管面臨一些挑戰，第四季度業績仍符合預期，並且是我們有史以來業績最好的季度之一。以固定匯率計算，我們的銷售額年增8%，這主要得益於全球零件業務和全球企業運算解決方案業務的成長。

In our Global Components segment, sales grew 6% as compared to last year on a constant currency basis. While demand for electronic components and associated design, engineering and supply chain services generally remained healthy in the West. We did experience softer demand in Asia relative to our sales guidance, especially in China.

在全球元件業務板塊，以固定匯率計算，銷售額年增6%。儘管西方市場對電子元件及相關設計、工程和供應鏈服務的需求總體保持良好，但亞洲市場的需求低於預期，尤其是在中國市場。

It's important to remember that we are not too concentrated in any 1 area. We're proud to service a variety of industries and provide products from a diverse group of suppliers to a diverse group of customers around the world. Additionally, design and engineering capabilities remain a key part of our strategy and our ongoing investments continue to contribute to our success in all 3 regions.

值得注意的是，我們並未過度集中於任何單一領域。我們為能夠服務眾多行業，並為全球各地多元化的客戶提供來自不同供應商的產品而感到自豪。此外，設計和工程能力仍然是我們策略的關鍵組成部分，我們持續的投資也為我們在所有三個地區的成功做出了貢獻。

As we discussed last quarter, supply and demand conditions have been moderating somewhat. However, we are comfortable with our near-term outlook based on the quality of both our inventory and our backlog. While conditions may continue to moderate as we enter 2023, we remain focused on helping our customers secure the products they most need.

正如我們上季度所討論的，供需狀況已有所緩和。然而，基於我們庫存和積壓訂單的質量，我們對近期前景感到樂觀。儘管進入2023年後，供需狀況可能會繼續緩和，但我們仍將專注於幫助客戶獲得他們最需要的產品。

Both the Americas and European regions produced strong year-over-year growth as both regions experienced healthy demand across several major end markets and industries, particularly industrial, transportation, aerospace and communications. In the Americas, we are continuing to see normalization in our shortage market services as supply continues to improve, this contributed to the sequential sales decline in the Americas and was the primary driver for margin compression in our global components business overall.

美洲和歐洲地區均實現了強勁的同比增長，這得益於這兩個地區多個主要終端市場和行業的強勁需求，尤其是工業、交通運輸、航空航天和通訊領域。在美洲，隨著供應持續改善，我們的短缺市場服務正逐步恢復正常，這導緻美洲地區的銷售額環比下降，也是我們全球零件業務整體利潤率下降的主要原因。

Sales in our Asia region declined due to weakening demand in most end markets. We believe demand will likely remain soft in the near term as the region recovers from COVID-related disruptions and market headwinds. Despite the sales decline in the fourth quarter, design activity was quite robust and will no doubt contribute to our longer-term prospects in the region. With our diverse portfolio of customers and suppliers, along with our differentiated services offerings, we believe we are well positioned for when the market in this region eventually recovers.

由於大多數終端市場需求疲軟，我們在亞洲地區的銷售額有所下降。我們認為，隨著該地區從新冠疫情相關的干擾和市場逆風中復甦，短期內需求可能仍將保持疲軟。儘管第四季銷售額有所下降，但設計活動依然十分強勁，無疑將有助於提升我們在該地區的長期發展前景。憑藉我們多元化的客戶和供應商組合，以及我們差異化的服務產品，我們相信，當該地區市場最終復甦時，我們已做好充分準備。

In the enterprise computing solutions business, we delivered year-over-year sales growth for the third consecutive quarter. Sales for the fourth quarter grew 12% year-over-year on a constant currency basis and finished above the high end of our guidance.

在企業運算解決方案業務方面，我們連續第三個季度實現了同比增長。第四季銷售額以固定匯率計算年增12%，超出我們先前預期的上限。

Hardware supply constraints are easing somewhat, and demand remains strong for most of our key technology categories, we continue to see strength in cloud, software and enterprise IT content and are well positioned for the transition to IT-as-a-Service.

硬體供應限制有所緩解，我們大多數關鍵技術類別的需求仍然強勁，我們繼續看到雲端、軟體和企業 IT 內容的強勁勢頭，並且我們已做好充分準備向 IT 即服務轉型。

In Europe, we experienced strong growth in all of our markets and technologies. In the Americas, our growth came primarily from strength in security, compute and infrastructure software. We continue to measure this business on operating profit growth, and we are pleased to report full year growth of 4% year-over-year.

在歐洲，我們所有市場和技術領域均實現了強勁成長。在美洲，我們的成長主要得益於安全、運算和基礎設施軟體業務的強勁表現。我們繼續以營業利潤成長來衡量這項業務，並欣喜地宣布全年同比增長4%。

Before handing over the call, I want to reiterate my confidence in our ability to help our customers and suppliers meet the challenges that lie ahead. While supply and demand conditions may continue to moderate over the coming quarters, we believe that we'll retain much of what we achieved over the past few years in terms of scale, capabilities and an improved margin profile. We'll continue to help our customers and suppliers and in doing so, we are confident that we will continue to generate attractive returns.

在結束通話前，我想重申我對我們幫助客戶和供應商應對未來挑戰的能力充滿信心。儘管未來幾季供需狀況可能會持續趨於緩和，但我們相信，在規模、能力和利潤率方面，我們仍將維持過去幾年所取得的大部分成就。我們將繼續為客戶和供應商提供協助，並有信心在過程中繼續創造可觀的回報。

With that, I'll now hand the call over to Raj to provide more details on our results and our expectations moving forward.

接下來，我將把電話交給 Raj，讓他詳細介紹我們的表現以及我們對未來的展望。

Thanks, Sean. Fourth quarter sales grew by 3% versus prior year or 8% on a constant currency basis. Changes in foreign currencies impacted sales growth by approximately $357 million year-over-year, which was less than our expectation of $420 million. Sequentially, the business grew by 1%, and currency impacts were minimal. The average euro-dollar exchange rate for the quarter was $1.02 to EUR 1 compared to a previous expectation of $0.98 to EUR 1.

謝謝肖恩。第四季銷售額年增3%，以固定匯率計算成長8%。外匯匯率波動導致銷售額年減約3.57億美元，低於我們先前預期的4.2億美元。環比來看，業務成長1%，匯率影響微乎其微。本季歐元兌美元平均匯率為1.02美元兌1歐元，高於先前預期的1美元兌1歐元0.98美元兌1歐元。

Fourth quarter gross margin of 12.9% was down 40 basis points year-over-year, driven mostly by the normalization of shortage market activities we began to see in the third quarter. Sequentially, our margins improved by 10 basis points due to favorable product mix in the enterprise computing solutions business.

第四季毛利率為12.9%，年減40個基點，主要原因是自第三季以來短缺市場活動的正常化趨勢。環比來看，由於企業運算解決方案業務的產品組合最佳化，我們的毛利率提高了10個基點。

Operating expenses as a percent of sales were 7.2%, down 20 basis points year-over-year and 10 basis points sequentially. Interest and other expense of $62 million has significantly increased year-over-year and sequentially due to higher rates on floating rate debt and higher borrowings, but was in line with our prior expectations. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 24.8%. This was slightly higher than our prior expectation of 23.5% due to timing of certain items within the year.

營業費用佔銷售額的7.2%，較去年同期下降20個基點，較上季下降10個基點。利息及其他費用為6,200萬美元，年比及季均顯著成長，主要原因是浮動利率債務利率上升以及借款額增加，但符合我們先前的預期。本季實際稅率為24.8%，略高於我們先前預期的23.5%，主要原因是年內某些項目的發生時間不同。

For the full year, our effective tax rate was 23.8%. Both the fourth quarter and full year rates are within our long-term range of 23% to 25%, which we continue to see as our appropriate target range going forward.

全年實際稅率為23.8%。第四季和全年稅率均在我們23%至25%的長期目標範圍內，我們仍然認為這是我們未來合適的稅率目標範圍。

Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet. Our fourth quarter operating cash flow was $109 million. Our cash cycle of approximately 66 days increased 3 days from the third quarter and 12 days year-over-year primarily due to inventory increases, which are largely related to pricing. As a reminder, our inventory investments allow us to support customer demand, and we have continued to generate strong returns in the process.

接下來談談現金流和資產負債表。我們第四季的經營現金流為1.09億美元。現金週轉週期約66天，較第三季增加3天，較去年同期增加12天，主要原因是庫存增加，而庫存增加又與價格密切相關。需要指出的是，我們的庫存投資能夠滿足客戶需求，並且在此過程中，我們持續獲得了豐厚的回報。

Our return on invested capital and return on working capital remain well above pre-pandemic levels. At the end of the quarter, net debt totaled $3.6 billion, and our liquidity remains very strong at approximately $2.3 billion, including cash of $177 million. Our strong financial position and flexible balance sheet positioned us to repurchase $300 million of shares during the quarter. At the end of the fourth quarter, our repurchase -- remaining repurchase authorization stood at $329 million.

我們的投資資本報酬率和營運資本報酬率仍遠高於疫情前水準。截至本季末，淨債務總額為36億美元，流動性依然非常強勁，約23億美元，其中包括1.77億美元的現金。我們穩健的財務狀況和靈活的資產負債表使我們能夠在本季回購3億美元的股票。截至第四季末，我們的剩餘回購授權額度為3.29億美元。

We are also pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has approved an additional $1 billion to our share repurchase authorization. Returning cash to shareholders through our stock repurchase plan remains 1 of our priorities, and this authorization reflects that commitment.

我們很高興地宣布，董事會已批准追加10億美元的股票回購授權。透過股票回購計畫向股東返還現金仍然是我們的首要任務之一，而此次授權也反映了我們對股東的承諾。

Please keep in mind that the information I've shared during the call today is a high-level summary of our financial results. For more detail regarding the business segment results, please refer to the CFO commentary, which we published on our website this morning. Also note that the CFO commentary includes information on our fiscal calendar closing dates.

請注意，我今天在電話會議上分享的資訊是我們財務表現的概要概述。有關各業務部門業績的更多詳情，請參閱我們今天早上在網站上發布的財務長評論。另請注意，財務長評論中包含有關我們財政年度結算日期的資訊。

Now turning to guidance. Midpoint sales and EPS guidance reflect a continuation of current market conditions, which we have discussed, particularly the impacts of normalizing shortage market activities. Midpoint global component sales reflects an expected decline of 7% compared to prior year and 5% on a constant currency basis.

現在來看業績指引。銷售額和每股盈餘的中位數指引反映了我們之前討論過的當前市場狀況的延續，特別是短缺市場活動正常化帶來的影響。全球零件銷售額的中位數指引預計將年減7%，以固定匯率計算下降5%。

Our forecast suggests enterprise computing solutions will grow 3% year-over-year and 6% on a constant currency basis. We estimate that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar compared principally to the euro will result in a reduction to sales growth of $182 million and EPS growth of $0.13 compared to prior year. Compared to the prior quarter, we estimate that the impact will be a positive $175 million to sales and $0.11 to EPS.

我們的預測顯示，企業運算解決方案業務將年增3%，以固定匯率計算成長6%。我們預計，美元兌歐元走強將導致銷售額年減1.82億美元，每股收益將年減0.13美元。與上一季相比，我們預計美元走強將使銷售額增加1.75億美元，每股收益增加0.11美元。

I will now turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

現在我將把電話轉交給接線生進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Ruplu Bhattacharya from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ruplu Bhattacharya 的一條線。

Sean, I wanted to start with a high-level question. I mean when you look at end market demand today versus 90 days ago, I mean, how would you say -- I mean, are things materially weaker? Or are they the same? Or -- and how do you see that trending over the next quarter?

肖恩，我想先問一個比較宏觀的問題。我的意思是，如果你比較一下現在的終端市場需求和90天前相比，你會怎麼評價──我的意思是，需求是否明顯減弱了？還是基本持平？或者——你認為未來一個季度市場需求會如何改變？

And then specifically on the components side, I think you said bookings were below parity in all regions. Is that concerning? And do you think backlog will continue to decline? Or do you think that, that can also grow over the next couple of quarters?

然後，具體到零件方面，我記得您說過所有地區的預訂量都低於預期。這是否令人擔憂？您認為積壓訂單會繼續下降嗎？還是說，您認為未來幾季積壓訂單也會有所成長？

Sure, Ruplu. Let's start with just our feelings about the market overall. And I would say it's sort of mix. If you look at our guide for the first quarter, we're basically at or above normal seasonality in all of our Western markets.

當然，Ruplu。我們先從對整體市場的看法說起。我覺得情況比較複雜。如果你看我們第一季的業績指引，你會發現我們在所有西方市場的業績基本上都達到了或超過了正常的季節性水平。

So maybe not quite as broad-based in the West as it was maybe 90 days ago, but we're still seeing activity levels in things like transportation, industrial, aerospace and defense and medical device sectors holding up and certainly, other sectors like compute, communications, consumer and things like lighting slowing down.

所以，雖然在西方可能不像 90 天前那麼普遍，但我們仍然看到交通運輸、工業、航空航天和國防以及醫療器械等領域的活動水平保持穩定，當然，計算、通信、消費品和照明等其他領域的活動水平正在放緩。

Obviously, demand trends in Asia, specifically China, have been impacted by market headwinds and COVID disruption. It obviously was initially all about consumer and PC, but that's now bled into other key verticals as well. But by and large, we still see enough activity in the West to feel good about our outlook in the first quarter.

顯然，亞洲，尤其是中國的需求趨勢受到了市場逆風和新冠疫情的影響。最初，需求主要集中在消費品和個人電腦領域，但現在這種影響已經蔓延到其他關鍵垂直領域。不過總的來說，我們仍然看到西方市場有足夠的活躍度，因此對第一季的前景持樂觀態度。

And to that point, your question about backlog, look, our backlog is down from its all-time high, but it's still well, well, well beyond historical levels. Our teams do a pretty good and active job throughout the world to continue to validate that backlog. And we believe the majority of it is still firm versus forecasted. And that work yields or has yielded certainly more reschedules and pushouts than cancellations. So we feel pretty good about the backlog. And as we said earlier, the quality of our inventory to support the guidance we've shared.

關於您提到的積壓訂單問題，我們的積壓訂單雖然比歷史最高水準下降，但仍遠高於歷史平均值。我們全球各地的團隊都在積極有效地核實積壓訂單。我們相信，大部分訂單的進度仍與預期相符。而且，這些工作產生的重新安排和延期訂單肯定比取消訂單要多。所以我們對目前的積壓訂單狀況相當滿意。正如我們之前所說，我們庫存的品質足以支撐我們先前發布的業績指引。

Okay. Maybe I can ask Raj, a couple of quick questions. On the -- on the inventory, it looks like sequentially, it was up 5%. I know you're guiding -- there's some seasonality in the March quarter. But can you just talk about like what drove the increase? And -- and as you think about this year and free cash flow and working capital days, how should we think about that? Do you think inventory remains high for a while? Or do you think that we're at the point now where it's peaked and it can actually come down and free cash flow can be better?

好的。我可以問Raj幾個問題。關於庫存，看起來比去年同期成長了5%。我知道你們預計三月的季度會有一些季節性因素。但您能談談是什麼因素導致了庫存成長嗎？還有，您認為今年的自由現金流和營運資本週轉天數該如何看待？您認為庫存會在一段時間內保持高位嗎？還是您認為現在已經達到峰值，庫存可以下降，自由現金流也會有所改善？

Yes, Ruplu, I would say that the majority of the increased inventory, whether it's quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year is driven by pricing environment that we've been in. And so actually, what's driving it.

是的，Ruplu，我認為庫存增加的大部分原因，無論是環比還是同比，都是由我們所處的定價環境所驅動的。所以，究竟是什麼因素在驅動庫存增加呢？

We do -- as Sean said earlier, we have a good, strong backlog. We think we can sell through most of the inventory. And it's hard for me to say what the peak level is going to be, but we continue to have good demand in the West, and that's really what we're looking at.

正如肖恩之前所說，我們確實有充足的訂單儲備。我們認為大部分庫存都能售出。我很難預測高峰會是多少，但西部地區的需求依然強勁，這正是我們目前關注的重點。

And from a cash flow standpoint, I think we're going to -- we'll generate some cash flow this year just given the market dynamics. But overall, we feel good about where we sit.

從現金流的角度來看，鑑於目前的市場狀況，我認為我們今年應該能夠產生一些現金流。但總的來說，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。

And Ruplu, I would just add some color to that, which is, look, I look at inventory as a function of customer service especially in this environment. So we really spend as much time as we can to help our customers deliver on their production schedules even as they change. And as you might imagine, there's a fair bit of change in this environment. But I look at the increase in Q4, for example, I would call it, for the most part, modest. But I think a healthy inventory investment now will set us up for attractive returns in the future.

魯普魯，我再補充一點，我認為庫存是客戶服務的一個組成部分，尤其是在當前環境下。因此，我們會盡一切努力幫助客戶按時完成生產計劃，即使他們的計劃有所變動。正如您所想，當前的環境變化相當大。但就第四季而言，我認為增幅總體上比較溫和。不過，我認為現在進行合理的庫存投資將為我們未來帶來可觀的回報。

Okay. That makes sense. And finally, if I could just ask. I think 1 concern that many investors have is our margins at their peak I mean, as suppliers lower their prices, I mean, when you see ASP pressure. And how you think about margins. And in that context, if you can give any of your views on how you think margins can trend.

好的，明白了。最後，如果可以的話，我想問一下，很多投資人都擔心我們的利潤率在高位時會如何變化，例如供應商降價，也就是平均售價面臨壓力的時候。您是如何看待利潤率的？在這種情況下，您能否談談您對利潤率趨勢的看法？

But also, do you have cost levers and -- and I guess my question is on general risk management. Like if we go into a recession or a slowdown, do you think OpEx as a percent of sales or as a percent of gross profit still has -- you have levers to lower that, meaning you can take more cost out. So just your thoughts on your ability to manage your costs and how you think margins will trend maybe in a deflationary environment or in a recessionary environment?

此外，你們是否有成本控製手段？ ——我想問的是關於整體風險管理的問題。例如，如果經濟衰退或成長放緩，您認為營運支出佔銷售額或毛利的百分比是否還有降低的空間？也就是說，你們是否還有辦法進一步削減成本？所以，您如何看待您們的成本控制能力，以及在通貨緊縮或經濟衰退的環境下，利潤率會如何改變？

Sure, Ruplu. So of course, I always like to talk more about growth and cost, but I'll start with the second part of your question, we feel like our OpEx is fairly well managed. As you can see, we landed at historical lows on both a percent of sales and a percent of gross profit basis.

當然，Ruplu。我當然很樂意多談談成長和成本，​​但我想先回答你問題的第二部分，我們覺得我們的營運支出控制得相當不錯。正如你所看到的，無論從銷售額百分比或毛利百分比來看，我們的營運支出都達到了歷史新低。

We've got all kinds of levers in place to make sure that we're protecting our investment priorities and continuing to work on structural cost over time. You were obviously going to be very surgical in this environment. If things were to slow more dramatically, I think we know where to go. And remember that variable cost in a more recessionary environment would come down substantially.

我們已經採取了各種措施，確保保護我們的投資重​​點，並持續降低結構性成本。顯然，在這種環境下，你們的策略必須非常精準。如果經濟成長大幅放緩，我想我們知道該如何應對。而且要記住，在經濟衰退時期，變動成本會大幅下降。

I think to the first part of your question, and it's the right one, we spend a lot of time looking at how the complexion of our business has changed over the past couple, 3 years, and as the supply/demand market continues to normalize, I can tell you that we feel pretty confident about our ability to retain some of the structural benefits that we built into our model. So I can't sit here today and say exactly when the market will fully normalize, but it will, and we'll reach something that we might call a steady state.

我認為，對於您問題的第一部分（也是最關鍵的一點），我們花了很多時間研究過去兩三年公司業務格局的變化。隨著供需市場逐漸恢復正常，我可以告訴您，我們對保持我們商業模式中一些結構性優勢的能力相當有信心。因此，我今天無法準確預測市場何時會完全恢復正常，但它終將恢復正常，我們會達到可以稱之為穩定狀態的局面。

When we do, I'm confident that operating margins in our Components business are going to land well north of the last long-term target we set for that business. And for those of you that maybe weren't as involved, that was 5% at the time. I think now we're looking at something in the range of 5.5%, all the way to maybe 6 points.

我相信，屆時我們零件業務的營業利潤率將遠高於我們先前為該業務設定的長期目標。可能有些人不太了解狀況，當時的目標是5%。我認為現在我們有望達到5.5%，甚至可能達到6%。

So the reason we have conviction around that is because of the structural investments we've made over time. And I can talk a lot about engineering resources that help us capture design win margin potential. We think there's still runway there. I can talk about supply chain capabilities and what that's doing to help us serve our customers in different and value-adding ways.

我們之所以對此充滿信心，是因為我們長期以來所進行的結構性投資。我可以詳細談談工程資源如何幫助我們抓住設計訂單的商機。我們認為這方面仍有提升空間。我還可以談談供應鏈能力，以及它如何幫助我們以不同的增值方式服務客戶。

I can talk about design services, which are especially interesting to some of our larger OEM customers for which we enjoy really accretive returns. So there's a real thought behind that statement. And I think while you might want to ask me when, and we won't commit to a time frame, again, the market's got to normalize, but we feel really good about the next target range for that business.

我可以談談設計服務，這項服務對我們的一些大型OEM客戶來說尤其有吸引力，因為我們能從中獲得豐厚的回報。所以，我這麼說是有實際意義的。我想，您可能想問我具體時間，我們目前無法給出確切的時間表，畢竟市場需要時間恢復正常，但我們對這項業務的下一個目標區間充滿信心。

Okay. I appreciate it. That's helpful.

好的，謝謝。這很有幫助。

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Sheerin from Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Matt Sheerin。

Yes. Just a little bit more color in terms of what you're seeing kind of like the Western markets are holding up better. Your big competitor last night is seeing below seasonal demand in all regions, although like you calling out Asia as the weakest area, and they're seeing an inventory correction start to play out across their business. It doesn't sound like you're seeing in that yet? Are there any -- other than your commentary about some pushouts and no cancellations. Anything else you're seeing there or your book-to-bills are going negative in those markets?

是的。我想更詳細地描述您觀察到的情況，例如西方市場似乎表現得更好。昨晚您的主要競爭對手在所有地區都出現了低於季節性需求的情況，儘管正如您所指出的，亞洲是表現最疲軟的地區，而且他們正在經歷庫存調整，這種情況似乎已經開始顯現。您目前似乎還沒有看到這方面的改變？除了您提到的部分訂單延期和沒有取消訂單之外，您還有其他觀察到的情況嗎？或者說，您在這些市場是否看到了訂單出貨比為負值的情況？

Well, as I think maybe the CFO commentary or some much suggested, book-to-bills are below parity in all 3 of our regions. But Matt, I'll go back to what I shared about the guide, again, in most of our Western markets, we're at or above normal seasonality in our Q1 outlook. China really is the only place where we're subseasonal here.

嗯，正如財務長的評論或許多人提到的那樣，我們三個地區的訂單出貨比都低於正常水平。不過，馬特，我還是要重申我之前提到的業績指引，在我們的大部分西方市場，第一季的業績預期都達到了或超過了正常的季節性水平。只有中國市場目前處於非季節性水準。

From an inventory perspective, as I mentioned, I never like to see it creep up, but I have confidence in what it will help us deliver. Our Asia Pac team funny enough kept inventory flat sequentially quarter-over-quarter. So we are managing that as well as we can under the circumstances, especially while we try and juggle the balance between working capital and customer service. I think we're in pretty good shape on that front moving forward.

從庫存角度來看，正如我之前提到的，我當然不希望看到庫存增加，但我對它能幫助我們交付產品充滿信心。有趣的是，我們亞太團隊的庫存環比保持穩定。因此，在目前的情況下，我們已經盡力做到最好，尤其是在努力平衡營運資金和客戶服務的同時。我認為，就目前而言，我們在這方面進展順利。

Okay. And in components, you talked about weakness in that shortage market in North America, which makes sense. Do you think that's bottomed in terms of fundamentals there? Or is that going to get weaker before it bottoms?

好的。關於零件方面，您提到了北美零件短缺市場的疲軟，這很有道理。您認為從基本面來看，北美零件市場已經觸底了嗎？還是說在觸底前還會進一步走弱？

Matt, I think we're getting closer. I think we'll still see some of that pressure in Q1, but then I think we'll see that become less impactful over the balance of this year, assuming all else remains equal.

馬特，我覺得我們越來越接近目標了。我認為第一季我們仍然會看到一些壓力，但之後，假設其他條件不變，這種壓力在今年剩餘的時間裡會逐漸減弱。

Okay. Great. And just a question on ECS where it looks like you've had nice strong results, still good demand drivers. But we are hearing some concern about the backlog and as that build as component shortages get easier, the backlog working on and forward. Are you seeing that in any of your businesses? Or do you have any kind of outlook in terms of IT spending for the year as you're talking to your customers?

好的，太好了。關於ECS，我有個問題。你們的業績看起來很不錯，需求依然強勁。但我們聽說你們對積壓訂單有些擔憂，隨著零件短缺情況的緩解，積壓訂單可能會增加，需要處理和推進。你們的業務中是否也出現了這種情況？或者，在與客戶溝通的過程中，你們對今年的IT支出有什麼展望嗎？

Sure. Maybe I'll start with your question about backlog. I think in my opening comments, I talked about the fact that the hardware supply chains are easing somewhat. It hasn't completely flushed and our backlogs are still close to all-time highs in that business. So there's still a ways to go, but it was nice to see some relief in the fourth quarter. And I think we'll see some relief throughout the year.

當然。或許我可以先回答你關於積壓訂單的問題。我想我在開場白中提到過，硬體供應鏈的壓力有所緩解。雖然還沒有完全消除，我們這方面的積壓訂單仍然接近歷史最高水平，所以還有很長的路要走。不過，很高興看到第四季情況有所改善。我認為今年全年都會持續好轉。

I think the broader market, while it was rebounding from the pandemic, I think, has maybe moderated somewhat at at least call it mix. We talked about supply chains, cloud adoption is slowing somewhat at least from its pandemic levels, given some recessionary concerns, we have seen some evidence of slowing sales cycles surrounding enterprise IT more generally.

我認為，儘管整體市場正從疫情中復甦，但至少可以說，其成長速度已經放緩，市場格局也趨於多元化。我們之前討論過供應鏈問題，鑑於對經濟衰退的擔憂，雲端運算的採用速度至少比疫情期間的水平有所放緩，我們也看到一些跡象表明，企業IT領域的銷售週期普遍放緩。

But at the same time, pipelines related to cybersecurity, infrastructure software, things like digital automation, they're all still pretty active and healthy. So while we're not super bullish about the growth outlook for the year, by no means, do we see it going south.

但同時，與網路安全、基礎設施軟體、數位自動化等領域相關的業務線仍相當活躍且發展良好。因此，雖然我們對今年的成長前景並非十分樂觀，但也絕不認為成長會下滑。

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Suva from Citigroup.

你的下一個問題來自花旗集團的吉姆·蘇瓦。

Sean, before you were at Arrow and before COVID, there were some supplier consolidation, some supplier changes about using distribution, not using distribution, giving more value-added demand creation, giving less value-added creation to the distributors. I'm just wondering now that hopefully, if we exit COVID and hopefully get to more normalized supply chain, are you seeing or having discussions with suppliers for any changes? And are they positive, negative or no changes. I'm wondering if there's actually more opportunity. Or is there like more consolidation? Or kind of what's going on because the past 3 years have been challenging for everybody.

肖恩，在你加入Arrow之前，也就是新冠疫情之前，供應商之間進行了一些整合，一些供應商在分銷渠道的使用上有所調整，有的供應商更注重創造高附加價值需求，有的則減少了對分銷商的增值貢獻。我現在想知道，如果疫情過去，供應鏈恢復正常，你是否正在與供應商討論任何變化？這些變化是正面的、負面的還是沒有改變？我想知道這是否意味著更多的機遇，還是加劇整合？或者說，目前的情況究竟如何？因為過去三年對每個人來說都充滿挑戰。

They certainly have. Thanks, Jim. So maybe take your question in a couple of pieces. I mean, first, from a consolidation perspective, that's a little tough for us to call. Consolidation will likely continue in the industry, but we don't have any specific knowledge of anything in play.

他們確實有。謝謝，吉姆。那麼，或許你可以分成幾個部分來回答你的問題。首先，從整合的角度來看，我們很難預測。行業整合可能會持續，但我們目前沒有任何具體資訊。

We've tended to benefit from some of that and at times, maybe get heard from some of that. So that 1 is a little bit tough to call. But from a program perspective, look, we're always having conversations with our suppliers. Our suppliers are always looking at ways in which they can work with us to rely on more of our capabilities I would say, in general, not less.

我們往往能從中受益，有時也能聽到一些聲音。所以，這個問題很難說。但從專案角度來看，我們一直在與供應商溝通。我們的供應商也一直在尋找與我們合作的方式，以便更多地利用我們的能力，而不是減少。

I do believe there's more demand creation potential in the overall semiconductor supplier market in total. We saw our demand creation mix improved year-over-year. We look at design activity every quarter pretty closely throughout the world, and we see design registrations, design wins still going up. So while you might from time to time catch wind of a supplier that's looking to trim the margin profile in their channels, I'm comfortable that there's plenty that still place a lot of value on the engineering investments we make for demand creation and give us a chance to be rewarded accordingly. So I think the outlook for that particular piece of the question is still very valid and very promising.

我相信整個半導體供應商市場仍有更大的需求成長潛力。我們看到需求成長結構較去年同期有所改善。我們每季都會密切關注全球的設計活動，設計註冊量和得標數量仍在持續成長。因此，儘管您可能偶爾會聽到一些供應商試圖降低通路利潤率，但我相信仍有許多供應商非常重視我們為創造需求所做的工程投入，並給予我們相應的回報。所以我認為，關於這個問題的前景仍然非常樂觀。

Thank you so much for your details. Congratulations on good results in such a challenging time.

非常感謝您提供的詳細資訊。恭喜您在如此充滿挑戰的時期取得如此好的結果。

Your next question comes from the line of William Stein from Truist Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

Great. First, I'd like to ask about the trend in lead times broadly. I think it's clear that they're coming down, but I wonder where you think we are in that normalization process. Are we somewhere in the middle innings? Or are we still in the beginning of that process. Would you expect that to continue throughout the year? And then I have a follow-up.

好的。首先，我想問一下交貨週期的整體趨勢。我認為很明顯交貨週期正在縮短，但我想知道您認為我們目前處於這個正常化過程的哪個階段？我們正處於中期嗎？還是還處於初期？您預計這種趨勢會持續到年底嗎？然後我還有一個後續問題。

So it's funny because I think you read some headlines specific to certain components of the technology mix and people broadly assume the supply constraints have gone away. But we still see it as very mixed.

所以挺有趣的，因為我覺得你看一些專門針對特定技術組合的新聞標題，人們普遍認為供應限制已經消失了。但我們仍然認為情況非常複雜。

I mean, lead times have come in, in certain cases. But on average, the lead times we see across our whole electronic components business is twice the pre-pandemic average. Now that's down from some of the higher levels at one set at, but it's still not sufficient to satisfy the backlog that we still see. So I call it mix on a technology basis.

我的意思是，某些情況下交貨週期確實有所縮短。但平均而言，我們整個電子元件業務的交貨週期是疫情前平均的兩倍。雖然這比之前某些階段的較高水準有所下降，但仍不足以滿足我們目前面臨的積壓訂單。所以我稱之為基於技術的混合模式。

Hard to say when it all fully normalizes, I don't see that happening probably anytime soon. Maybe it will gradually improve throughout the year. Don't know. We really don't want to speculate too far ahead of the quarter in front of us and maybe just a little bit more.

很難說一切何時才能完全恢復正常，我覺得短期內不太可能。或許情況會在今年逐漸改善。誰也說不準。我們真的不想對即將到來的季度，甚至在更長一段時間之前的情況妄加猜測。

Remember, all the capacity investments that we read about over the past couple of years, that takes time to materialize and really change the structural in a supply formula for the industry in total. So I think it's still going to be kind of mixed and it's going to be a little bit of an ebb and flow here over the course of the year. But we're going to focus mainly on what we can see over the next 90-plus days.

請記住，過去幾年我們看到的那些產能投資，都需要時間才能真正落實，並徹底改變整個產業的供應結構。所以我認為，今年的情況還是會比較複雜，會出現一些波動。但我們將主要關注未來90多天的市場動態。

Okay. As a follow-up, Arrow has a well-known significant supplier that went through a consolidation process with distribution partners, I think, a couple of years ago now. But they've been pretty aggressively deploying some features in their sort of supply chain, if you will, for example, a new distribution center in Europe, where they're doing same-day delivery. They've developed these APIs for customers to hook directly into their website.

好的。補充一點，Arrow 有一家知名的重要供應商，這家供應商大約在幾年前與分銷合作夥伴進行了整合。但他們一直在積極推動供應鏈的各項改進，例如在歐洲新建了一個配送中心，提供當日送達服務。他們還開發了 API，方便客戶直接接觸他們的網站。

I wonder, it seems relatively clear that this is targeted at the types of services that you have provided to their customers and to your customers over the years. I wonder if you see this as a threat that's sort of materializing to that portion of your revenue today or if it's something in the future? Or if you just don't think that this is going to have a meaningful impact on your business?

我覺得，很明顯，這針對的是你們多年來向他們的客戶以及你們的客戶提供的那類服務。我想知道，你們是否認為這會對你們目前的收入構成威脅，還是說這只是未來的問題？或者你們根本不認為這會對你們的業務產生實質的影響？

Yes. Well, look, I'm not going to claim makers here. But I think you can appreciate, we would never talk about any of our suppliers in particular. So I can't really help you a whole lot with that one. I can say that overwhelmingly, as I said earlier, most of our conversations with most of our suppliers are all about how we can help them do more. So I feel pretty good about what that means for us, not just now but into the future.

是的。嗯，你看，我不會在這裡透露任何資訊。但我想你應該能理解，我們絕對不會特別提及任何供應商。所以在這方面我真的幫不上忙。但我可以肯定的是，正如我之前所說，我們與大多數供應商的溝通主要圍繞著如何幫助他們做得更好。所以我對這對我們來說意義重大，不僅是現在，也包括未來。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·夸特羅奇。

In the past, you guys have talked about kind of a customer survey on the number of customers that don't have enough inventory or have too much inventory. Is there any color you can provide on where we stand in the kind of results of that survey?

過去你們曾提到一項關於庫存不足或庫存過剩的客戶調查。能否透露一下我們目前在調查結果方面的情況？

Sure, Joe. I guess the short answer is mixed. We continue to perform the survey of late, it's been really hard to see any consistent patterns. You'll see the numbers move around a little bit 1 quarter to the next for those that say they have too much versus those they have -- say they have too little. And then you'll see it move again in the other direction in Q4.

當然，喬。我想簡單來說，情況比較複雜。我們最近一直在進行這項調查，但很難看出任何一致的規律。你會發現，在認為自己擁有太多資源的人和認為自己擁有太少資源的人之間，每季的數據都會略有波動。然後在第四季度，你會看到數據又朝著相反的方向變化。

So I would not place a whole lot of stock in what that's telling us in this environment because this is such an abnormal supply environment. So it's a little less predictable for us. We're relying on lots of other vectors that we have access to, including our backlog and including our inventory turns, et cetera.

所以，在目前這種供應環境非常不正常的情況下，我不會過度依賴這些數據所反映的資訊。因此，情況對我們來說更難以預測。我們依賴許多其他可取得的指標，包括我們的積壓訂單、庫存週轉率等等。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the share repurchase program that you guys announced. Is there an expiration to that authorization? And then how do you think about balancing that activity relative to your working capital need just given the increase in short-term borrowing rates that we've seen kind of flow through your interest expense line?

好的，這很有幫助。關於你們宣布的股票回購計劃，這項授權有截止日期嗎？考慮到短期借貸利率的上升，以及由此帶來的利息支出增加，你們打算如何平衡這項活動與營運資金需求之間的關係？

Joe, this is Raj. There is no expiration to that share buyback authorization, which is similar to what we've done in the past. So no change there. And our capital priorities continue to be the same. And so if we have a need to invest in the business, that will be our first priority. And then we always are looking for the right kind of M&A opportunity at good returns. And then -- to the extent we have excess capacity, we'll buy back our stock, and that's really what we've been doing.

喬，我是拉傑。股票回購授權沒有到期日，這和我們過去的做法類似。所以這方面沒有任何變化。我們的資本優先事項也保持不變。如果我們需要投資業務，那將是我們的首要任務。同時，我們一直在尋找回報豐厚的併購機會。此外，如果產能過剩，我們會回購股票，而這正是我們一直在做的事情。

And in terms of short-term rates, we've taken that into account. That's certainly driven up interest expense in the fourth quarter, but the things that we're doing more than pay for that incremental cost. So I think we're positioned well.

至於短期利率，我們已經考慮到了這一點。這無疑地推高了第四季的利息支出，但我們採取的措施足以彌補這部分額外成本。所以我認為我們目前處境良好。

And there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Rick Seidlitz, I'll turn the call back over to you for some final closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題了。里克·塞德利茨先生，我把電話交還給您，請您做最後的總結發言。

All right. Thank you, Rob. I just want to thank everyone for your interest in Arrow Electronics, and wish you have a nice day. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你，羅伯。我只想感謝大家對艾睿電子的關注，祝大家今天愉快。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。