Armour 住宅房產信托 (ARR) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day. Welcome to the ARMOUR Residential REIT's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Scott Ulm, CEO. Please go ahead.

大家好。歡迎參加 ARMOUR Residential REIT 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，本活動將被錄音。現在我想把電話會議交給執行長 Scott Ulm。請開始。

Good morning, and welcome to ARMOUR Residential REIT's fourth-quarter 2025 conference call. This morning, I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Gordon Harper; as well as our Co-Chief Investment Officers, Sergey Losyev and Desmond Macauley.

各位早安，歡迎參加 ARMOUR Residential REIT 2025 年第四季電話會議。今天早上與我一同出席的有我們的財務長 Gordon Harper，以及我們的共同投資長 Sergey Losyev 與 Desmond Macauley。

I'll now turn the call over to Gordon to run through the financial results.

我現在把電話會議交給 Gordon，請他說明財務結果。

Thank you, Scott. By now, everyone has access to ARMOUR's earnings release, which can be found on ARMOUR's website, www.armourreit.com. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, which are intended to be subject to the Safe Harbor protection provided by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

謝謝你，Scott。目前各位應該都已取得 ARMOUR 的財報新聞稿，可在 ARMOUR 官網 www.armourreit.com 查閱。本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，旨在適用 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》所提供的「安全港」保護。

The risk factors section of ARMOUR's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, described certain factors beyond ARMOUR's control that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these forward-looking statements. Those periodic filings can be found on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.

ARMOUR 向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的定期報告中的風險因素章節，說明了若干超出 ARMOUR 控制範圍的因素，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述所明示或暗示者存在重大差異。這些定期申報文件可在 SEC 官網 www.sec.gov 查閱。

All in today's forward-looking statements are subject to change without notice. We disclaim any obligation to update them unless required by law. Also, today's discussion refers to certain non-GAAP measures. These measures are reconciled with comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release. An online replay of this conference call will be available on ARMOUR's website shortly and will continue for one year.

今天所有前瞻性陳述均可能在未經通知的情況下變更。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔更新之義務。此外，今天的討論提及若干非 GAAP 衡量指標。這些指標已在我們的財報新聞稿中與可比的 GAAP 指標進行調節。本次電話會議的線上重播將於稍後在 ARMOUR 官網提供，並將持續一年。

Q4 was a strong quarter for ARMOUR with a total economic return of 10.63% for the quarter as we benefited from MBS spreads tightening, lower MBS volatility and a lower interest rate environment. The market momentum we saw in Q4 has continued so far into Q1. ARMOUR's Q4 GAAP net income available to common stockholders was $208.7 million or $1.86 per share. Net interest income was $50.4 million. Distributable earnings available to common stockholders was $79.8 million or $0.71 per common share.

第四季對 ARMOUR 而言表現強勁，本季總經濟報酬率為 10.63%，受惠於 MBS 利差收斂、MBS 波動度下降以及較低的利率環境。我們在第四季看到的市場動能，至今在第一季仍在延續。ARMOUR 第四季可供普通股股東分配的 GAAP 淨利為 2.087 億美元，或每股 1.86 美元。淨利息收入為 5,040 萬美元。可供普通股股東分配的可分配盈餘為 7,980 萬美元，或每股普通股 0.71 美元。

This non-GAAP measure is defined as net interest income plus TBA drop income, adjusted for interest income or expense on our interest rate swaps and futures contracts, minus net operating expenses. Quarter end book value was $18.63 per common share, up 6.5% from September 30. Our most recent current available estimate of book value as of Tuesday, February 17 was $18.37 per common share, which reflects the payment of our January dividend of $0.24 and the accrual of the entire February common dividend payable on February 27, 2026, again, up $0.24 per common share.

此一非 GAAP 指標定義為：淨利息收入加上 TBA drop 收入，並就利率交換與期貨合約的利息收入或費用進行調整，再扣除淨營運費用。季末每股帳面價值為 18.63 美元，較 9 月 30 日上升 6.5%。我們最新的目前可得帳面價值估計（截至 2 月 17 日週二）為每股普通股 18.37 美元，反映已支付 1 月股利每股 0.24 美元，以及已全額計提 2026 年 2 月普通股股利（將於 2026 年 2 月 27 日支付），同樣為每股普通股 0.24 美元。

During Q4, ARMOUR raised approximately $3.8 million of capital by issuing approximately 183,000 shares of preferred stock through an at the market offering program. Through February 11, 2026, we raised approximately $138 million of capital under our common at the market program by issuing approximately 7.5 million shares of common stock, which is mildly dilutive.

在第四季期間，ARMOUR 透過「隨行就市」（ATM）發行計畫發行約 18.3 萬股優先股，募集約 380 萬美元資本。截至 2026 年 2 月 11 日，我們透過普通股 ATM 計畫發行約 750 萬股普通股，募集約 1.38 億美元資本，對每股數據有輕微稀釋。

We also issued $4.8 million of capital from the issuance of 230,000 shares of preferred stock under our preferred at the market program. Our repaid monthly common dividends per share of $0.24 per common share per month for a total of $0.72 for the quarter. As we have stated previously, we aim to pay an attractive dividend that is appropriate in the context of stable over the medium term.

我們也透過優先股 ATM 計畫發行 23 萬股優先股，募集 480 萬美元資本。我們每月支付普通股股利每股 0.24 美元，本季合計每股 0.72 美元。如我們先前所述，我們的目標是在中期穩定的前提下，支付具吸引力且適切的股利。

On January 29, we paid a cash dividend of $0.24 per outstanding common share to the holders of record of January 15, 2026. We have also declared cash dividends of $0.24 per outstanding common share, payable on February 27, 2026, and March 30, 2026 to holders of record on February 17 and March 16, respectively.

1 月 29 日，我們向 2026 年 1 月 15 日登記在冊的股東，就每股流通普通股支付 0.24 美元現金股利。我們也已宣告每股流通普通股 0.24 美元的現金股利，將於 2026 年 2 月 27 日與 2026 年 3 月 30 日支付，分別支付給 2 月 17 日與 3 月 16 日登記在冊的股東。

I will now turn the call back over to CEO, Scott Ulm, to discuss ARMOUR's portfolio position and current strategy.

我現在把電話會議交回給執行長 Scott Ulm，請他說明 ARMOUR 的投資組合部位與目前策略。

Thank you, Gordon. ARMOUR REIT delivered a robust fourth quarter, marking a 6.5% increase in book value in the fourth quarter. The strong growth extended to our balance sheet. The portfolio grew for a second consecutive quarter, increasing by more than 10% from the end of the third quarter of 2025, driven by roughly 22 basis points of spread tightening while maintaining moderate leverage throughout the quarter. ARMOUR's mortgage assets now total over $20 billion, supported by a strong capital liquidity position of approximately 54% of total shareholders' equity as of the end of January.

謝謝你，Gordon。ARMOUR REIT 第四季表現強勁，第四季帳面價值成長 6.5%。強勁成長也延伸至我們的資產負債表。投資組合連續第二季擴張，較 2025 年第三季末成長逾 10%，主要受約 22 個基點的利差收斂所帶動，同時在整個季度維持適度槓桿。截至 1 月底，ARMOUR 的抵押資產總額現已超過 200 億美元，並由強勁的資本流動性部位支撐，約占股東權益總額的 54%。

We viewed Agency MBS as a high conviction opportunity from the onset of the Fed's easing cycle in the third quarter of 2024, and the backdrop for 2026 has now turned materially more supportive. Despite spreads tightening meaningfully so far in 2026, the market's appeal remains anchored in declining rate volatility and easing funding costs, supported by the Fed's efforts to lower rates and maintain ample banking liquidity.

自聯準會於 2024 年第三季啟動寬鬆循環之初，我們即將機構 MBS 視為高度確信的投資機會，而 2026 年的環境如今已明顯更為有利。儘管 2026 年迄今利差已顯著收斂，市場吸引力仍建立在利率波動度下降與融資成本走低之上，並受聯準會降息及維持充裕銀行體系流動性的努力所支撐。

While prepayments have moved off their cyclical lows of recent years, they remain contained with primary mortgage rates still anchored around 6%. Adding a steeper yield curve and the result is a market that we expect to continue to favor MBS with compelling returns relative to returns in corporate credit where spreads are trading at historically tight valuations.

雖然提前還款已自近年週期低點回升，但在主要房貸利率仍大致維持在 6% 左右的情況下，整體仍受控。再加上殖利率曲線更為陡峭，我們預期市場將持續偏好 MBS，因其相對於公司信用的報酬更具吸引力；而公司信用利差目前正處於歷史性偏緊的估值水準。

Technical supply and demand dynamics are now working with us, not against us. The administration's focus on lowering mortgage spreads reinforces a clear North Star for a stable mortgage market an objective, we expect Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to support through [FIFA's] $200 billion MBS purchase mandate.

技術面的供需動態如今正與我們同向，而非逆風。政府致力於降低房貸利差的重點，強化了穩定房貸市場的明確「北極星」目標；我們預期房利美（Fannie Mae）與房地美（Freddie Mac）將透過 [FIFA's] 2,000 億美元的 MBS 購買授權來支持此目標。

The GSEs have posted strong monthly purchases of mortgage assets throughout last year while net issuance of conventional MBS remained negative in the fourth quarter. The imbalance has reminded attractive returns in the TBA roll market, creating a liquid carry environment and expanding the buyer base for Agency MBS.

GSE 去年全年每月均大量買入抵押資產，而傳統 MBS 的淨發行量在第四季仍為負值。此一失衡使 TBA 展期（roll）市場的報酬更具吸引力，形成流動性充裕的套息環境，並擴大機構 MBS 的買方基礎。

I'll now turn it over to Desmond for more detail on our portfolio.

我現在把時間交給 Desmond，請他更詳細說明我們的投資組合。

Thanks, Scott. ARMOUR's most recent net balance sheet duration stands at 0.14 years with a modest positive bias to the front end of the curve, consistent with easing monetary policy. Implied leverage, excluding treasury loans is 7.9 turns, a balanced posture that reflects tighter spreads and a lower volatility backdrop versus the prior year. The portfolio remains nearly 100% Agency MBS, Agency CMBS or DUS, and US treasuries to target specific yield curve exposures.

謝謝你，Scott。ARMOUR 最新的資產負債表淨久期為 0.14 年，曲線前端略偏多，與貨幣政策寬鬆一致。隱含槓桿（不含國庫券借貸）為 7.9 倍，這是一種較為均衡的姿態，反映相較去年利差更緊、波動率環境更低。投資組合仍幾乎 100% 配置於機構 MBS、機構 CMBS 或 DUS，以及美國國庫券，以鎖定特定的殖利率曲線曝險。

Consistent with our balance sheet growth, we added over 3 billion of MBS pools and DUS across the fourth quarter and early first quarter. And our purchase mix has evolved as recent spreads have moved. Early in the fourth quarter, we determined it was most attractive to overweight premium dollar MBS, which offer the most attractive spreads and yields. Anticipating that GSE purchases would most likely concentrate in (inaudible) coupons where the impact on primary mortgage rates is most direct, we added over 1 billion of 4.5 and 5 coupon MBS ahead of Trump's GSE announcement in early January.

配合我們的資產負債表成長，我們在第四季及第一季初新增了超過 30 億美元的 MBS 池與 DUS。而我們的買入組合也隨近期利差變動而演進。在第四季初，我們判斷最具吸引力的是加碼溢價美元 MBS，因其提供最具吸引力的利差與殖利率。預期 GSE 的買盤很可能集中在（聽不清）票息、其對主要房貸利率的影響最為直接，因此在川普於一月初發布 GSE 公告之前，我們已提前加碼超過 10 億美元的 4.5 與 5 票息 MBS。

As [belly] coupons titled to historically rich levels to near single-digit OES, we shifted towards lower coupons and seasoned collateral, where affordability initiatives aim that on freezing the housing market could drive higher turnover speeds whilst reserving higher yields in deeper discount MBS. Within premium bonds, we focus more on call protection in higher-tier maximum non-sized pools, while keeping payoff targets at 24 ticks or lower.

隨著「腹部」票息升至歷史偏貴水準、OES 接近個位數，我們轉向較低票息與較成熟的抵押品；在可負擔性措施的目標下，對於凍結房市的影響可能推動更高的周轉速度，同時在更深折價的 MBS 中保留較高殖利率。在溢價債券方面，我們更聚焦於較高等級、最大且非指定（non-sized）池的提前償付保護，同時將償付目標維持在 24 ticks 或以下。

In Agency CMBS, our -year DUS position experienced extreme spread tightening. On a relative value basis, 10-year DUS bonds now screen more attractive, particularly when hedged with longer-dated super swaps with pay fixed rates still cheaper than treasury hedges.

在機構 CMBS 方面，我們的 -年期 DUS 部位經歷了極端的利差收斂。以相對價值來看，10 年期 DUS 債券目前看起來更具吸引力，特別是在以較長天期的超級交換（super swaps）進行避險時，支付固定利率仍比用國庫券避險更便宜。

Roughly 86% of our hedges are in OIS and SOFR pay fixed swaps with the balance in treasury futures. The benchmark 10-year SOFR swap spread has normalized back to its pre-liberation day average of approximately negative 37 basis points and we anticipate further gains will likely hinge on the path of policy debate around the Fed's desired balance sheet size and banking deregulation.

我們約 86% 的避險部位為 OIS 與 SOFR 支付固定利率的交換，剩餘則為國庫券期貨。基準 10 年期 SOFR 交換利差已回到「解放日」前的平均水準，約為負 37 個基點；我們預期後續的進一步改善，可能取決於政策辯論的走向，包括聯準會期望的資產負債表規模以及銀行業去監管。

Aggregate portfolio prepayments averaged 11.1 CPR through Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to date, versus 8.1 CPR in Q3 2025, stable, but running at a somewhat higher level versus the prior year. Despite tighter mortgage spreads, the 30-year mortgage rate has remained in a tight 6% to 6.3% band, though it has recently shifted towards the low end of that range. The administration's push for affordability without sacrificing home price appreciation, leaves mortgage rates and spreads as the two primary levers to accomplish that.

整體投資組合的提前償付率在 2025 年第四季及截至目前的 2026 年第一季平均為 11.1 CPR，相較 2025 年第三季的 8.1 CPR，仍算穩定，但較前一年略高。儘管房貸利差收斂，30 年期房貸利率仍維持在 6% 至 6.3% 的狹幅區間內，不過近期已偏向該區間的低端。政府在不犧牲房價上漲的前提下推動可負擔性，使得房貸利率與利差成為達成目標的兩個主要槓桿。

However, the easy work has already been done, the mortgage rate spread for the 10-year treasury is now below its 15-year average. Further declines in mortgage rates will therefore require lower long-end treasury yields, which have not declined in sync with front-end rate cuts since the start of the easing cycle in 2024.

然而，最容易的部分已經完成；房貸利率相對 10 年期國庫券的利差如今已低於其 15 年平均。因此，房貸利率若要進一步下行，將需要長端國庫券殖利率走低；自 2024 年寬鬆循環開始以來，長端殖利率並未與前端降息同步下滑。

Still, we remain mindful that many originators have built significant capacity to ramp up refinancing, which could be triggered by a sustained move below 6% and may accelerate speed in part and premium coupons in coming quarters. Refi activity has proven to be highly sensitive to marginal mortgage rate declines keeping prepayment risk in TBAs and the generic premium MBS elevated. Coupon selection and specified collateral remained the key to containing the prepayment risk.

即便如此，我們仍留意到許多放款機構已建立可大幅提升再融資的產能；若房貸利率持續跌破 6%，可能觸發再融資並在未來幾季加速部分與溢價票息的速度。再融資活動已證明對房貸利率的邊際下滑高度敏感，使得 TBA 與一般溢價 MBS 的提前償付風險仍然偏高。票息選擇與指定抵押品仍是控制提前償付風險的關鍵。

We are positioned accordingly. Nearly 30% of assets are in prepayment protected agency CMBS pools and discount MBS, while specified MBS pools with some form of prepayment protection, comprise over 92% of ARMOUR's portfolio.

我們也據此進行配置。近 30% 的資產配置於具提前償付保護的機構 CMBS 池與折價 MBS；而具有某種形式提前償付保護的指定 MBS 池，占 ARMOUR 投資組合超過 92%。

Funding markets have also turned the corner. 2026 REPO conditions have improved materially versus last year. Markets are liquid and financing levels have eased with REPO rates averaging roughly SOFR plus 15 basis points. The SOFR to Fed funds spread has also normalized to near flat. As REPO rate back (inaudible) in late 2025, the Fed moved quickly to contain intra-month funding pressures tied to falling reserves and elevated T-bill supply.

資金市場也已出現轉折。2026 年的 REPO 條件相較去年明顯改善。市場流動性充裕、融資水準已趨於寬鬆，REPO 利率平均約為 SOFR 加 15 個基點。SOFR 與聯邦基金利率的利差也已回到接近持平。當 2025 年底 REPO 利率回升（聽不清）時，聯準會迅速採取行動，以抑制與準備金下降及國庫券供給偏高相關的月內資金壓力。

First, the Fed continues to implement a policy of easing the overnight Fed funds rate. Second, it has shifted its reinvestment by directing paydowns of its treasury and MBS Holdings back into the treasury market. Third, it initiated outright purchases of up to $40 billion per month in treasury bills and other short-dated treasuries to stabilize reserve balances and maintain ample system liquidity.

第一，聯準會持續實施下調隔夜聯邦基金利率的政策。第二，它調整再投資方式，將其國庫券與 MBS 持有部位的本金回收（paydowns）導回國庫券市場。第三，它啟動每月最多 400 億美元的國庫券及其他短天期國庫券的直接買入，以穩定準備金餘額並維持系統流動性充裕。

This response reinforces the systemic importance of REPO markets as the foundation for liquid financial conditions and underscores the Fed's low tolerance for a repeat of the September 2019 episode well reserved scarcity and balance sheet frictions contributed to a sharp dislocation in secured funding.

此一回應強化了 REPO 市場作為流動金融環境基礎的系統性重要性，也凸顯聯準會對重演 2019 年 9 月事件的低容忍度；當時準備金稀缺與資產負債表摩擦導致擔保融資市場出現劇烈失衡。

While the incoming share has signaled an appetite for a smaller Fed footprint and a reduced balance sheet over time, we expect the Central Bank's focus on orderly funding markets to remain the highest priority with the willingness to respond preemptively ahead of any emerging stress.

儘管新一屆政府已釋出訊號，傾向讓聯準會的影響力更小、並隨時間縮減資產負債表，我們預期央行對有序資金市場的關注仍將是最高優先事項，並願意在任何新興壓力出現之前先行預防性回應。

As of today, we financed the portfolio across 23 active REPO counterparties, approximately 80% of our repo principle is financed at a 3% haircut or lower, and the weighted average haircut across the REPO book is approximately 2.75%. BUCKLER Securities accounts for roughly 40% to 60% of our REPO financing.

截至今日，我們透過 23 家活躍的 REPO 交易對手為投資組合融資；約 80% 的回購本金以 3% 或更低的折扣率（haircut）融資，而整體 REPO 帳簿的加權平均折扣率約為 2.75%。BUCKLER Securities 約占我們 REPO 融資的 40% 至 60%。

Back to you, Scott.

交回給你，Scott。

Thanks, Desmond. We continue to set our dividend with a medium-term outlook. While acknowledging relatively tighter spreads versus the prior year, we expect the backdrop of a steeper yield curve and lower volatility remains supportive for a consistent and predictable return profile for our assets.

謝謝你，Desmond。我們仍以中期展望來設定股利。在認知到相較前一年利差較為收斂的同時，我們預期殖利率曲線更陡、波動率更低的環境，仍將有利於我們資產維持一致且可預期的報酬輪廓。

Our approach remains unchanged: stress test their liquidity, apply systematic hedging, and deploy capital when opportunities present themselves. Overall, we're confident in our positioning, our strategy, and our ability to deliver value for shareholders in 2026.

我們的方法維持不變：對流動性進行壓力測試、採用系統化避險，並在機會出現時部署資本。整體而言，我們對自身的配置、策略，以及在 2026 年為股東創造價值的能力充滿信心。

Before we open the line for questions, we'd also like to highlight that we've launched a new investor presentation, now available on ARMOUR's website. It provides additional insight for investors, including how our portfolio is transformed over time. Thank you for joining today's call and for your continued interest in ARMOUR.

在我們開放提問之前，我們也想強調，我們已推出一份新的投資人簡報，目前已可在 ARMOUR 的網站上取得。該簡報為投資人提供更多洞見，包括我們的投資組合如何隨時間推移而轉型。感謝您參加今天的電話會議，並持續關注 ARMOUR。

(Operator Instructions) Timothy D'Agostino, B. Riley Securities.

(接線員指示) Timothy D'Agostino，B. Riley Securities。

Thanks for taking the question. I was wondering on the portfolio interest-bearing assets. By my estimates, it increased year over year around like 49%. I was wondering the outlook in '26, do you see potential for similar growth or maybe a little bit less given the increase in 2025?

感謝讓我提問。我想請教關於投資組合中的計息資產。依我的估算，年增大約 49%。我想問對 2026 年的展望，您是否看到類似的成長潛力，或是考量 2025 年的增幅，可能會略低一些？

I think there are a couple of elements there, but certainly, one of the most important is capital raising. And we are -- when we see an opportunity to raise capital, combined with investment opportunities we like, we'll execute on that. But we are -- we discriminate a fair amount in terms of what we -- what is going to be attractive or not.

我認為這裡有幾個因素，但當然其中最重要之一是資本募集。當我們看到募集資本的機會，並且同時有我們喜歡的投資機會時，我們就會執行。但我們——在判斷什麼會有吸引力、什麼不會方面——會相當有選擇性。

So I'm afraid I got to tell you, it depends on how the market behaves, both on the investment side and the equity side of whether we will be similar or smaller or in some other relationship to what we're able to do last year.

所以恐怕我得告訴你，這取決於市場如何表現——無論是投資端還是股權端——我們在 2026 年的規模會與去年相近、更小，或是呈現其他關係，都要看市場狀況以及我們能做到什麼。

Okay. Great. Thank you so much. And then just to confirm, book value as of Tuesday was $18.37 per share?

好的。很好。非常感謝。另外確認一下，截至週二的每股帳面價值是 18.37 美元？

Correct. And that's after the accrual of our full February dividend and the payment of our January dividend.

正確。而且這是在計入我們 2 月股利全額應計，以及支付 1 月股利之後的數字。

All right. Perfect. Thank you so much.

好的。完美。非常感謝。

Trevor Cranston, Citizens.

Trevor Cranston，Citizens。

Can you guys talk about where you're seeing incremental returns on new investments today given the spread tightening that's occurred and how you view the incremental level of return compared to the dividend you're currently paid?

你們能談談在利差收斂的情況下，今天你們在新投資上看到的增量報酬在哪裡，以及你們如何看待這個增量報酬水準相對於目前支付的股利？

Hi, Trevor. This is Desmond Macauley. So on a carry basis, the levered yield on [305], which are currently production coupon is around the mid-teens, let's say, about 15%. This assumes eight turns of leverage, hedged to 0.5 duration using swap hedges. And it's a static framework over a period of just about three months. It doesn't assume any more spread tightening.

嗨，Trevor。我是 Desmond Macauley。以 carry（持有收益）角度來看，[305]（目前為發行中票息）的槓桿後殖利率大約在十幾%的中段，姑且說約 15%。這是假設 8 倍槓桿，並使用利率交換（swap）避險將存續期間對沖到 0.5。而且這是一個約三個月期間的靜態框架。它不假設利差會進一步收斂。

Now we think, at least in the medium term, we could see a bit more spread tightening. So let's say we get another 10 basis points of OAS tightening. That adds about 4% to that return. And also the curve would steepen some more. So if we have another -- if we see another 50 basis points in curve steepening, particularly made by the front end through more Fed cuts, which is we anticipate that can also add about another 1% or so. So those are all parts of the full to return framework, some of that would accrue to our book value.

不過我們認為，至少在中期，我們可能還會看到一些利差進一步收斂。所以假設 OAS 再收斂 10 個基點。這會讓該報酬增加約 4%。此外，殖利率曲線也會再變陡一些。因此如果曲線再變陡 50 個基點，尤其是前端因聯準會進一步降息而帶動——這也是我們的預期——那也能再增加約 1% 左右。所以這些都是完整總報酬框架的一部分，其中一部分會反映在我們的帳面價值上。

Now in terms of marginal capital raise, we see that, that hurdle rate is about 16%. So that would be dividend used to common and the management fee is just 75 basis points on new equity. So you add that together, that's roughly about 16%. So if you see that for production coupon, the base case returns are close to that level already. And with just a little bit steeper and if we see more tightening, it would surpass that by a couple of more points.

至於邊際增資（marginal capital raise），我們看到的門檻報酬率大約是 16%。也就是支付給普通股的股利，加上新股權僅 75 個基點的管理費。把這些加總起來，大約就是 16%。所以你可以看到，對於發行中票息而言，基準情境的報酬已經接近這個水準。若曲線再稍微變陡、且利差再收斂一些，報酬就會再高出幾個百分點。

Does that answer your question?

這樣有回答到你的問題嗎？

Yeah, that's very helpful. Thank you. And then I guess, in general, can you guys talk about how you're thinking about the likelihood of further actions driven by the government to attempt to lower mortgage rates, things such as increasing the GSE portfolio limits further or potentially doing other things like lowering GPs, et cetera?

有的，這非常有幫助。謝謝。另外我想更一般性地問一下，你們如何看待政府未來可能採取更多行動來嘗試降低房貸利率的可能性，例如進一步提高 GSE 投資組合上限，或可能採取其他措施如調降 G-fees 等等？

Hey, Trevor. This is Sergey. Yes. So around the week in Dallas, we were expecting maybe a few more announcements on the affordability push that the administration has announced with the GSE purchases. We haven't gotten anything. It feels to us that maybe the lowest hanging fruit has been picked in terms of pressuring spreads and mortgage rates lower, but without affecting home prices.

嗨，Trevor。我是 Sergey。是的。大約在達拉斯那一週，我們原本預期政府在其宣布的、透過 GSE 購買來推動可負擔性的政策上，可能還會有更多公告。但我們沒有看到任何新消息。我們的感覺是，在不影響房價的前提下、用來壓低利差與房貸利率的「最容易摘的果實」可能已經摘完了。

I think the next steps kind of have both positives and negatives for that push in terms of GSE, the G-fee cuts for the GSEs, take away some of the profitability, make them less of a private enterprise, profitable enterprise and more of a policy tool. It will introduce negative complexity to investors who may demand wider spreads.

我認為接下來的步驟，在推動方向上對 GSE 來說同時有正面與負面影響；例如對 GSE 調降 G-fee，會拿走一部分獲利能力，使其更不像一家私營、以獲利為目的的企業，而更像一個政策工具。這會為投資人帶來負面的複雜性，投資人可能因此要求更寬的利差。

So some of the further steps may work counter to what administration has called the North Star in terms of keeping mortgage spreads nice and stable. We do expect more announcements. Obviously, there have been announcements on portability, assumability of mortgage loans, 50-year loans have been taken off the table.

因此，某些後續措施可能會與政府所稱的「北極星」（North Star）——也就是讓房貸利差保持良好且穩定——背道而馳。我們確實預期會有更多公告。顯然，先前已經有關於可攜性（portability）、房貸可承接性（assumability）的公告，而 50 年期貸款也已被排除在外。

So there's a lot of announcements that we made. But once you get to the implementation stage of it, things have been quite slow. Having said that, we definitely expect in the mid-term year for these announcements to be quite active.

所以我們已經看到很多公告。但一旦進入落地執行階段，進度一直相當緩慢。話雖如此，我們確實預期在中期內，這些公告會相當活躍。

Okay. Appreciate the comments. Thank you.

好的。感謝你的評論。謝謝。

Dave Storms, Stonegate Capital.

Dave Storms，Stonegate Capital。

Thank you for taking myquestions. I wanted to start with just asking for a little more thoughts on your current liquidity. It looks like quarter over where you put a little more work than it looks like it's back up as of last month end. I guess how do you think about this in the near term?

謝謝讓我提問。我想先請你們多談一點對目前流動性的看法。看起來在季度期間你們多做了一些配置，但截至上個月月底似乎又回升了。我想問你們短期內如何看待這件事？

So yeah, I think our liquidity, we mentioned is about 54% of the total equity at the month end. It's a really good spot, reflects our moderate leverage kind of where we have been steady in terms of liquidity. So we don't foresee any sharp changes given our current position in the portfolio.

是的，我想我們的流動性——如我們提到的——在月底約占總股東權益的 54%。這是個非常好的水位，反映了我們適度的槓桿，以及我們在流動性方面一直維持穩定。因此，基於我們目前在投資組合中的部位，我們不預期會出現任何劇烈變化。

Understood. Thank you. And then I also know you mentioned in the prepared remarks that about maybe 30% of your portfolio is payment protected with mortgage rates hovering around to 6%. Do you -- I know the market like nice round numbers. Do you see any risk of a tipping point or it's more maybe a linear situation as mortgage rates may continue to take lower?

了解。謝謝。另外我也知道您在事先準備的發言中提到，大約有 30% 的投資組合具備付款保護，而房貸利率目前徘徊在約 6%。您是否——我知道市場喜歡整數。您是否看到任何「臨界點」風險，還是說在房貸利率可能持續走低的情況下，這比較像是線性的變化？

Yeah. I mean, look, prepayments have increased from Q4. So far in Q1, we noted in our script. We're definitely towards the lower range of the mortgage rates that we have been over the last couple of years. February prevailing mortgage rate will be lower after the GSE announcements as well.

是的。我的意思是，你看，提前償還率自第四季以來已經上升。到目前為止在第一季，我們也在講稿中提到。我們確實正處於過去幾年房貸利率區間的較低端。在 GSE 公告之後，2 月的主流房貸利率也會更低。

So the risk of faster prepayments has increased, right? And I think in sync with that, our portfolio has morphed over the last couple of quarters to protect us more from lower mortgage rates, 30% in discounts and thus, specified pools make up 92%. Within the 92%, almost 40% is in the loan balance stories, others, credit and geo stories. So we feel like there's -- there are faster refinances are in the future but we've built our portfolio to -- for that environment.

所以提前償還加速的風險已經提高了，對吧？而且我認為與此同步，我們的投資組合在過去幾個季度已經調整，以在房貸利率走低時更能保護我們——30% 配置在折價券種，因此，指定池（specified pools）占比達到 92%。在這 92% 裡，將近 40% 是貸款餘額（loan balance）題材，其他則是信用與地理區域題材。所以我們覺得未來會出現更快的再融資，但我們已經把投資組合建構成能因應那樣的環境。

Understood. Thank you.

了解。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Hagen, BTIG.

(接線員指示) Eric Hagen，BTIG。

I think you guys mentioned in the opening remarks, haircuts for MBS have come down as kind of an interesting comment. Can you maybe frame kind of where that level is relative to like the historical levels? And then if the GSEs are helping reduce volatility in the market, could we see that haircut level come down even further potentially?

我想你們在開場發言中提到，MBS 的折扣率（haircuts）已經下降，這點評論蠻有意思。你能否說明一下目前的水準相對於歷史水準大概在哪個位置？另外，如果 GSE 正在幫助降低市場波動，我們是否可能看到折扣率進一步下降？

We would hope so. I mean, a lot of the guidance on haircuts comes from FICC. But in terms of our bilateral counterparty REPO haircuts, we have worked with a lot of our counterparts to bring down the maximum haircuts closer to our weighted average of 2.75%. I think a lot of -- almost 80% of our repo book is closer to a 3%.

我們希望如此。我的意思是，關於折扣率的很多指引來自 FICC。但就我們雙邊交易對手的回購（REPO）折扣率而言，我們已與許多對手方合作，把最高折扣率下調到更接近我們 2.75% 的加權平均水準。我想我們回購融資部位中有很大一部分——將近 80%——更接近 3%。

Okay. Following up on the conversation around just where you are in the coupon stack. I mean, you mentioned originators have been really able to leverage some of their tools to be aggressive on refi. I mean, how does that drive the appetite for the current coupon specifically? And like the OAS that's in the current coupon, how do you compare that to some of the lower coupons and just where you feel comfortable taking prepayment risk?

好的。接著追問一下關於你們在票息結構（coupon stack）中所處位置的討論。你提到發起機構（originators）確實能運用一些工具，在再融資（refi）上更具侵略性。這會如何影響對「當期票息」（current coupon）的需求，特別是？以及當期票息所隱含的 OAS，你如何把它與較低票息相比，並說明你們在哪些位置會覺得承擔提前償還風險較為舒適？

Yeah. We've been looking away from current coupon because that's kind of where the biggest impact from the announcement has been really all throughout the Q4. We did add in Q4, a little over [1 billion and 4.5 and 5]. But since then, probably are more looking at the wings, deeper discount coupons where we can see some of the housing activity perhaps reignites with any of these affordability measures. In terms of premium coupons, they're still our core holding.

是的。我們一直在避開當期票息，因為公告帶來的最大影響其實在整個第四季都集中在那裡。我們在第四季確實有加碼，略高於[10 億，4.5 和 5]。但從那之後，我們可能更在看兩端：更深折價的票息，因為若有這些可負擔性措施，住房活動可能會再度被點燃。至於溢價票息，它們仍然是我們的核心持倉。

If you look at the OAS spread difference between 102 price and current coupon MBS we're at close to two centers deviations and not spread historically speaking, right? So a lot of the fares and prepayments and G-fee cuts have already been priced into the premiums. So it's really looking at kind of barbelled approach in the coupon stack at this point. But even within the belly at the coupon stack, you can find stories which pick OAS versus TBA, specifically, maybe like season collateral, things like that.

如果你看 102 價格與當期票息 MBS 之間的 OAS 利差差異，我們接近兩個標準差，而不是從歷史角度看利差本身，對吧？所以很多關於費用與提前償還，以及 G-fee 下調的因素，都已經反映在溢價券種的價格裡了。因此目前更像是在票息結構上採取一種「槓鈴式」（barbelled）的配置方式。但即便在票息結構的中段，你仍然可以找到一些題材能相對 TBA 提升 OAS，例如特定的季節性抵押品（seasoned collateral）之類。

How many Fed cuts do you feel like are currently priced into the mortgage basis?

你覺得目前房貸基差（mortgage basis）已經反映了聯準會降息幾次？

How many Fed cuts?

降息幾次？

Yeah, how many Fed cuts for the rest of this year, do you think are priced into the mortgage basis?

是的，你覺得今年剩下時間，房貸基差已經反映了聯準會降息幾次？

The market is expecting by the end of December, a little bit over two cuts. And from our perspective, we think it's reasonable. We think that normalization will continue this year. It looks like when we get to around June, the probability is about 100%, getting close to 100%. And that will be a very good environment for the MBS market and mortgage spreads, we think that the curve is already steepened.

市場預期到 12 月底，會略多於兩次降息。從我們的角度看，我們認為這是合理的。我們認為今年正常化會持續。看起來到大約 6 月時，機率大概是 100%，接近 100%。我們認為那將是 MBS 市場與房貸利差非常好的環境，而且我們認為殖利率曲線已經變得更陡。

If we do see more cuts, then funding costs will come down, the curve would stiffen even more. And that makes the entire space more attractive and it adds to overall total return.

如果我們確實看到更多次降息，那麼資金成本會下降，曲線會變得更陡一些。這會讓整個領域更具吸引力，並提升整體總報酬。

Great. Thank you, guys, so much. Appreciate your comments.

很好。非常感謝各位。感謝你們的意見。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Scott Ulm for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Scott Ulm，請他做任何結語。

Thank you very much for your interest in ARMOUR REIT. If there are follow-up questions, don't hesitate to call the office, and we will get back to you soon as we can. Thanks so much, and good morning to you.

非常感謝各位對 ARMOUR REIT 的關注。如果有後續問題，請隨時致電辦公室，我們會在可行的最短時間內回覆您。非常感謝，祝各位早安。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。