Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. 2021 年第三季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）提醒各位，本次會議將被錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Brian Cantrell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很榮幸介紹資深副總裁兼財務長 Brian Cantrell。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Thank you, Daryl, and welcome, everyone. Earlier this morning, Alliance Resource Partners released its third quarter 2021 financial and operating results, and we'll now discuss these results as well as our perspective on market conditions and outlook. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call to your questions.

謝謝你，Daryl，也歡迎各位。今天稍早，Alliance Resource Partners 已公布 2021 年第三季的財務與營運結果；接下來我們將討論這些結果，以及我們對市場狀況與展望的看法。在我們的準備發言之後，我們將開放各位提問。

Before beginning, a reminder that some of our remarks today may include forward-looking statements subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are contained in our filings from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are also reflected in this morning's press release. While these forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us, if one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or if our underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we projected or expected.

在開始之前，提醒各位，我們今天的部分發言可能包含前瞻性陳述，並受多項風險、不確定性與假設影響；相關內容不時載於我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，也反映於今天早上的新聞稿。雖然這些前瞻性陳述係基於我們目前可得之資訊，但若一項或多項風險或不確定性成真，或我們的基本假設被證明不正確，實際結果可能與我們所預測或預期者有重大差異。

In providing these remarks, the partnership has no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by law to do so. Finally, we'll also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. Definitions and reconciliations of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are contained at the end of ARLP's press release, which has been posted on our website and furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K.

在提供上述發言時，除非法律要求，本合夥企業並無義務因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而公開更新或修正任何前瞻性陳述。最後，我們也將討論若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與最直接可比較之 GAAP 財務衡量指標之差異定義與調節表，載於 ARLP 新聞稿末尾；該新聞稿已張貼於我們網站，並以 Form 8-K 提供給 SEC。

With the required preliminaries out of the way, I'll begin with a review of our results for the quarter and then turn the call over to Joe Craft, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, for his comments.

在完成必要的開場說明後，我將先回顧本季的業績，接著把電話交給我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Joe Craft，請他發表評論。

The exceptional performance delivered by Alliance through the first half of the year continued into the 2021 quarter. As we reported earlier this morning, ARLP again posted sequential increases to total revenues, net income, EBITDA and free cash flow. Strong performance from both our coal operations and our royalty segments led total revenues higher by $53 million to $414.4 million, with net increase -- income increasing $13.5 million to $57.5 million or $0.44 per unit and EBITDA climbing $17.3 million to $135.9 million.

Alliance 在今年上半年所展現的卓越表現延續至 2021 年第三季。如同我們今天稍早所報告，ARLP 的總營收、淨利、EBITDA 與自由現金流再度呈現季增。煤炭營運與權利金事業兩大部門的強勁表現，帶動總營收增加 5,300 萬美元至 4.144 億美元；淨利增加 1,350 萬美元至 5,750 萬美元，或每單位 0.44 美元；EBITDA 則增加 1,730 萬美元至 1.359 億美元。

Free cash flow also rose during the 2021 quarter, increasing $40.3 million to $119.7 million. ARLP's strong cash flow performance during the '21 quarter allowed us to return $12.7 million to unitholders through the quarterly distribution we paid in August and further improve our balance sheet as total leverage fell to 0.95x, a 12% reduction from the sequential quarter and liquidity increased $102.1 million to $602.6 million.

自由現金流在 2021 年第三季亦上升，增加 4,030 萬美元至 1.197 億美元。ARLP 在 2021 年第三季的強勁現金流表現，使我們得以透過 8 月支付的季度配息向單位持有人返還 1,270 萬美元，並進一步改善資產負債表：總槓桿降至 0.95 倍，較前一季下降 12%，流動性則增加 1.021 億美元至 6.026 億美元。

ARLP's financial and operating results for the 2021 quarter and the first 9 months of 2021 were also much improved compared to the 2020 quarter end period. Compared to the 2020 quarter, total revenues increased 16.8% as a result of higher coal sales volumes and significantly higher oil and gas prices, while net income jumped 111.4% and EBITDA climbed 14.4%.

ARLP 在 2021 年第三季以及 2021 年前 9 個月的財務與營運結果，相較於 2020 年同期也大幅改善。與 2020 年第三季相比，總營收因煤炭銷售量增加以及油氣價格顯著上升而成長 16.8%；淨利躍升 111.4%，EBITDA 成長 14.4%。

Compared to the 2020 period, coal sales volumes increased 15% during the 2021 period, driving total revenues higher by 14% to $1.1 billion. Coal production volumes also increased during the 2021 period, jumping 20.1% to 23.5 million tons, compared to 20.1 million tons during the 2020 period. Increased coal production and the benefits of ongoing cost control and efficiency initiatives at our mining operations, drove segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold lower by 11.1% to $28.82 per ton during the 2021 period, compared to $32.43 per ton for the 2020 period.

與 2020 年同期相比，2021 年期間煤炭銷售量增加 15%，帶動總營收成長 14% 至 11 億美元。煤炭產量在 2021 年期間亦增加，躍升 20.1% 至 2,350 萬噸；而 2020 年期間為 2,010 萬噸。煤炭產量提升，加上我們礦場持續推動成本控管與效率提升措施的效益，使得煤炭部門每售出一噸的部門調整後 EBITDA 成本下降 11.1% 至 2021 年期間的每噸 28.82 美元；相較之下，2020 年期間為每噸 32.43 美元。

Net income increased $290.5 million to $126.3 million, reflecting higher revenues and lower depreciation in the 2021 period and $157 million of noncash impairment charges in the 2020 period. Excluding these impairment charges, net income of $126.3 million for the 2021 period compares to an adjusted net loss of $7.2 million for the pandemic impacted 2020 period. EBITDA for the 2021 period increased 31.5% to $348.9 million compared to adjusted EBITDA of $265.3 million in the 2020 period.

淨利增加 2.905 億美元至 1.263 億美元，反映 2021 年期間營收較高、折舊較低，以及 2020 年期間認列 1.57 億美元的非現金減損費用。排除這些減損費用後，2021 年期間的淨利 1.263 億美元，對比受疫情影響的 2020 年期間調整後淨損 720 萬美元。2021 年期間的 EBITDA 增加 31.5% 至 3.489 億美元，相較於 2020 年期間的調整後 EBITDA 2.653 億美元。

Turning from our consolidated results, let's now take a closer look at the performance of ARLP's business segments, reflecting strong coal demand, which led to higher sales tons and price realizations at our coal operations. Coal sales revenues rose 11.1% to $362.3 million during the 2021 quarter compared to the sequential quarter. Segment adjusted EBITDA expense increased modestly to $28.95 per ton sold as inflationary pressures are beginning to impact our coal operations. Increased revenues more than offset higher per ton operating expenses, driving segment adjusted EBITDA for our coal operations up by 10.9% to $126.3 million.

從合併結果轉向各事業部門，讓我們更深入檢視 ARLP 各業務區塊的表現。強勁的煤炭需求帶動我們煤炭營運的銷售噸數與實現價格上升。2021 年第三季煤炭銷售營收較前一季增加 11.1% 至 3.623 億美元。由於通膨壓力開始影響我們的煤炭營運，部門調整後 EBITDA 成本小幅上升至每售出一噸 28.95 美元。營收增加幅度超過每噸營運費用上升，帶動煤炭營運的部門調整後 EBITDA 成長 10.9% 至 1.263 億美元。

ARLP's royalty businesses also performed well during the 2021 quarter. For our oil and gas royalties, segment adjusted EBITDA during the 2021 quarter rose 24.1% to $19.1 million as sales volumes and price realizations improved compared to the sequential quarter, benefiting from increased revenues and royalty tons sold during the 2021 quarter. ARLP's coal business -- coal royalties business delivered $9.2 million of segment adjusted EBITDA, an increase of 35.6% compared to the sequential quarter. The strong performance of both of these businesses resulted in ARLP's total royalty segment posting a record $28.3 million of segment adjusted EBITDA during the 2021 quarter.

ARLP 的權利金業務在 2021 年第三季同樣表現良好。在油氣權利金方面，2021 年第三季部門調整後 EBITDA 成長 24.1% 至 1,910 萬美元，因銷售量與實現價格較前一季改善；並受惠於 2021 年第三季營收增加與權利金噸數銷售提升。ARLP 的煤炭權利金業務貢獻部門調整後 EBITDA 920 萬美元，較前一季增加 35.6%。兩項業務的強勁表現，使 ARLP 的整體權利金部門在 2021 年第三季創下部門調整後 EBITDA 2,830 萬美元的歷史新高。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Joe for his comments. Joe?

以上就是我的報告。接下來我把電話交給 Joe，請他發表評論。Joe？

Thank you, Brian, and welcome, everyone. Since our last earnings call, fossil fuel prices have increased dramatically around the world as supply has fallen woefully short of demand. Since the beginning of this year, worldwide LNG prices have escalated fourfold in Asia and Europe. The API 2 index for thermal coal prices has more than doubled as weather-impacted, unreliable, renewable power generation did not show up at expected levels and utilities increasingly turned to coal in response to high natural gas prices.

謝謝你，Brian，也歡迎各位。自上次財報電話會議以來，全球化石燃料價格大幅上漲，因供給遠遠無法滿足需求。自今年年初以來，亞洲與歐洲的全球 LNG 價格已飆升至原來的四倍。由於受天候影響且不穩定的再生能源發電未能如預期供應，公用事業在高天然氣價格下愈發轉向煤炭，熱煤價格的 API 2 指數已上漲逾一倍。

In the United States, natural gas prices have nearly doubled, causing coal-fired generation and ARLP's primary markets to jump 23% year-over-year. Coal generation could have been even higher. However, supply has been limited due to numerous issues, almost none of which should be attributed to the producers of America's most abundant low-cost fuel coal.

在美國，天然氣價格幾乎翻倍，導致燃煤發電量以及 ARLP 的主要市場年增 23%。燃煤發電量原本可能更高；然而，由於多項問題導致供給受限，而其中幾乎沒有任何一項應歸因於美國最充足、低成本燃料——煤炭——的生產商。

Looking forward, the Biden administration's domestic energy policy agenda, combined with ESG obsessions in Europe and the United States, will most likely continue to restrict growth in fossil fuel production. Absent any significant global demand destruction, we expect fossil fuel prices will remain at elevated levels through next year and into 2023.

展望未來，拜登政府的國內能源政策議程，加上歐洲與美國對 ESG 的執念，極可能持續限制化石燃料產量的成長。在沒有任何顯著的全球需求破壞情況下，我們預期化石燃料價格將在明年並延續至 2023 年維持在高檔水準。

We have benefited from the market uplift this year as reflected in our updated full year 2021 coal sales guidance. Assuming no delivery delays through the end of this year, coal sales volumes will be 15% higher than the pandemic impacted 2020 levels. As natural gas prices are projected to remain favorable for cogeneration next year and coal stocks for our customers are at critically low levels, we are currently targeting a 6% to 12% increase in coal sales volumes in 2022 over 2021 levels to help meet the needs of the marketplace.

我們今年受惠於市場上行，這也反映在我們更新後的 2021 全年煤炭銷售指引中。假設今年年底前不發生交付延遲，煤炭銷售量將較受疫情影響的 2020 年水準高出 15%。由於預期明年天然氣價格仍有利於燃煤發電，且客戶的煤炭庫存處於極低水位，我們目前目標是在 2022 年將煤炭銷售量較 2021 年提高 6% 至 12%，以協助滿足市場需求。

ARLP has responded to rising coal demand. Our employees are working extra hours to increase current production and our mining operations are focused on retaining ARLP's exceptional workforce and attracting new employees to further increase coal production. ARLP's customers are rewarding us for our efforts to meet their needs during this critical time, providing new commitments during the 2021 quarter for the delivery of 2.1 million tons over the balance of this year. ARLP is now sold out for 2021 and as a result of recent contract pricing, we are increasing our estimated full year coal price realization by $1.10 per ton sold for this year.

ARLP 已對煤炭需求上升作出回應。我們的員工加班以提高目前產量，而我們的礦場營運則著重於留任 ARLP 卓越的勞動力並招募新員工，以進一步提升煤炭產量。ARLP 的客戶也在這個關鍵時期回饋我們滿足其需求的努力，於 2021 年第三季新增承諾，將在今年剩餘期間交付 210 萬噸。ARLP 目前 2021 年已全數售罄；且由於近期合約定價，我們將今年每售出一噸的全年煤炭估計實現價格上調 1.10 美元。

During the 2021 quarter, we also strengthened our long-term coal contract book, entering into new contracts for the delivery of another 13.2 million tons over the 2022 through 2024 time frame. And since the end of the 2021 quarter, securing new agreements for the delivery of an additional 10.7 million tons over the same 3-year period. As of today, we have 29.9 million tons committed and priced for 2022, of which 2.4 million tons are committed to the thermal export market for delivery next year.

在 2021 年該季度期間，我們也強化了長期煤炭合約組合，簽訂新合約以於 2022 年至 2024 年期間再交付 1,320 萬噸。此外，自 2021 年該季度結束以來，我們又取得新協議，於同一 3 年期間額外交付 1,070 萬噸。截至今日，我們已就 2022 年承諾並定價 2,990 萬噸，其中 240 萬噸承諾供應熱能煤出口市場，於明年交付。

ARLP has secured commitments for approximately 4 million tons of export sales in 2021, including 440,000 tons of metallurgical coal. We expect strong international demand for both thermal and metallurgical coal will continue into 2022, providing ARLP with the opportunity to place similar volumes, if not more, in the excellent markets at attractive prices next year. In 2023, we have price commitments for 15.8 million tons, all in the domestic market.

ARLP 已取得 2021 年約 400 萬噸的出口銷售承諾，其中包含 44 萬噸冶金煤。我們預期國際市場對熱能煤與冶金煤的強勁需求將延續至 2022 年，為 ARLP 提供機會在明年以具吸引力的價格於極佳市場中配置相近、甚至更多的銷售量。至於 2023 年，我們已有 1,580 萬噸的價格承諾，且全部在國內市場。

Market fundamentals for ARLP's royalty segment are also favorable. For our oil and gas royalties business, commodity prices have increased significantly since the beginning of the year, and the forward price curve for oil, natural gas and gas liquids remains very favorable. Production from our existing acreage continues to improve from pandemic lows. We expect that trend to continue as E&P operators modestly increased drilling and completion activity, and we anticipate the contribution from oil and gas royalties to ARLP's consolidated results will also increase as a result of our recent acquisition of approximately 1,500 net royalty acres in the Delaware portion of the Permian Basin.

ARLP 權利金（royalty）部門的市場基本面同樣有利。就我們的油氣權利金業務而言，自年初以來商品價格大幅上升，而原油、天然氣與天然氣液體的遠期價格曲線仍然非常有利。我們既有礦權/租地（acreage）的產量持續自疫情低點回升。我們預期，隨著勘探與生產（E&P）業者小幅增加鑽井與完井活動，該趨勢將持續；同時，因我們近期收購了約 1,500 淨權利金英畝，位於二疊紀盆地（Permian Basin）德拉瓦（Delaware）區域，預期油氣權利金對 ARLP 合併業績的貢獻也將隨之增加。

With the active development already underway and a significant inventory of wells to be ultimately completed on the acquired acreage, this transaction should provide a long-term uplift to the performance of our oil and gas royalties business. We also anticipate steady growth from our coal royalties business as increased coal sales volumes and prices from ARLP's mining operation should benefit this part of our business as well. As a result, we expect the contribution of our total royalty segment to ARLP's consolidated results will continue to increase in the future.

由於收購礦權/租地上已在進行積極開發，且未來最終將完成完井的井位庫存相當可觀，這筆交易應可為我們的油氣權利金業務表現帶來長期提升。我們也預期煤炭權利金業務將穩健成長，因 ARLP 採礦營運的煤炭銷售量與價格上升，亦將使此業務受益。因此，我們預期未來權利金部門整體對 ARLP 合併業績的貢獻將持續增加。

In closing, I want to address our thoughts on setting unitholder distributions. After suspending unitholder distributions in response to the challenges and uncertainties created by the pandemic. ARLP's performance and outlook had improved to the point that we were pleased to reinstate unitholder distributions earlier this year, targeting an annualized distribution level at approximately 30% of anticipated full year free cash flow at the time. ARLP's performance since then has obviously been exceptional, well above our expectations and the positive future outlook for energy market fundamentals contributed to the Board's decision this quarter to double the distribution to our unitholders compared to the sequential quarter.

最後，我想談談我們對單位持有人（unitholder）配息設定的看法。在因應疫情帶來的挑戰與不確定性而暫停單位持有人配息之後，ARLP 的表現與展望已改善到一個程度，使我們很高興能在今年稍早恢復配息，並以當時預期的全年自由現金流約 30% 作為年化配息水準的目標。此後 ARLP 的表現顯然極為出色，遠高於我們的預期；同時，能源市場基本面的正向前景也促使董事會在本季度決議，將對單位持有人的配息較前一季度加倍。

As I just mentioned, coal, oil and natural gas market fundamentals appear to be extremely favorable for the next several years. And with our long-lived low-cost strategically located assets, ARLP is well positioned to deliver solid results for the foreseeable future. We continue to believe we are well positioned to provide attractive cash returns to our unitholders and provide ARLP with the flexibility to pursue long-term growth opportunities, while maintaining a conservative balance sheet.

如我剛才所提，煤炭、原油與天然氣的市場基本面在未來數年看來極為有利。憑藉我們壽命長、低成本且具策略性區位的資產，ARLP 已做好準備，在可預見的未來交出穩健成果。我們仍相信，我們具備良好條件為單位持有人提供具吸引力的現金回報，同時在維持保守資產負債表的前提下，讓 ARLP 保有追求長期成長機會的彈性。

While ARLP is aggressively pursuing opportunities to benefit from current market conditions, we are also aware that significant uncertainties remain. The same market environment that is so favorable to ARLP's business today should also serve as a wake-up call to politicians, regulators, financial institutions, utilities and customers or consumers, as they contemplate the future. Policy is favoring a rapid movement away from reliable baseload generating capacity to an ever-increasing premature reliance on intermittent power sources have already resulted in power disruptions in the United States and energy crisis in Europe and power shortages in China and India.

儘管 ARLP 正積極把握機會以受惠於當前市場狀況，我們也清楚仍存在重大不確定性。當前對 ARLP 業務極為有利的同一市場環境，也應成為政治人物、監管機構、金融機構、公用事業以及客戶或消費者在思考未來時的警訊。政策偏向快速遠離可靠的基載發電能力，轉而日益過早依賴間歇性電力來源，已在美國造成停電/供電中斷，在歐洲引發能源危機，並在中國與印度造成電力短缺。

We are hopeful that as the energy transition continues to evolve, it will do so in a way that not only continues to push new technologies and innovation, but also with an honest recognition of the pace at which this can be deployed. This requires an acknowledgment by these policymakers of the importance of coal-fired power generation in order to maintain access to low-cost reliable power until the transition is completed sometime over the next several decades. As the future of energy continues to evolve, ARLP intends to be there for our customers, provide fuel essential to meeting their needs today and profitably investing in opportunities that will help them keep the lights on in the future.

我們希望，隨著能源轉型持續演進，它能以一種方式推動新技術與創新，同時也能誠實地認知其可部署的速度。這需要這些政策制定者承認燃煤發電的重要性，以在未來數十年某個時間點完成轉型之前，維持取得低成本且可靠電力的能力。隨著能源未來持續演變，ARLP 打算持續服務我們的客戶，提供滿足其當前需求所必需的燃料，並以獲利方式投資於能協助他們在未來維持供電的機會。

That concludes our prepared comments, and I'll now ask the operator to open the call for questions.

以上為我們事先準備的發言，接下來我將請接線員開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 The Benchmark Company 的 Nathan Martin。

Joe, Brian, congrats on the quarter.

Joe、Brian，恭喜本季表現。

Thanks, Nate. Appreciate it.

謝謝，Nate。感謝你。

Coal production, I'd say, came in a little lighter than expected. I'm guessing that's driven the decrease in full year shipment guidance. Given the strong market we're seeing, as you guys pointed out, you most probably weren't expecting a downward revision. Obviously, even the revised guidance looks like it would imply a very strong fourth quarter on both the production and shipment side. Could you guys maybe talk about factors leading to that change? Is the labor factor at all there? You also mentioned some issues maybe with delivery delays affecting that, maybe a little color there? And then kind of looking ahead to 2022, I think I caught you guys said that the shipments should be up about 6% to 12% year-over-year. Can you give us an idea how you plan to increase tons there?

煤炭產量我認為略低於預期。我猜這也導致你們下調全年出貨指引。鑑於你們指出目前市場很強勁，你們大概原本不預期會下修。當然，即便是修正後的指引，看起來也意味著第四季在產量與出貨兩方面都會非常強勁。你們能否談談導致這項變動的因素？是否與勞動力因素有關？你們也提到可能有一些交付延遲的問題影響到這點，能否補充一些細節？另外展望 2022 年，我想我聽到你們說出貨量年增約 6% 到 12%。你們能否讓我們了解你們計畫如何增加噸數？

Sure. Yes, we have had -- shipments were definitely impacted by some supply chain issues from the transportation sector to where we had some planned shipments that did not occur because of the unavailability of transportation equipment. We continue to see that as a challenge going forward. We do expect to hit our guidance with fourth quarter shipments, assuming the transportation shows up. This time, we have commitments that, that will happen, but we'll have to wait and see on that.

當然。是的，我們的出貨確實受到一些供應鏈問題影響，主要來自運輸部門；由於運輸設備無法取得，導致部分原本規劃的出貨未能發生。我們預期這仍將是未來的一項挑戰。只要運輸到位，我們確實預期第四季出貨可達成指引。這次我們已取得承諾表示會發生，但仍需拭目以待。

As far as our production, COVID still has impacted our operations. So we did have quite a few employees that were off this past quarter that impacted production somewhat, not significantly, but it did account for some of that shortfall. We are working extra time this quarter to try to make sure that we can achieve our objectives for the year. So we are working out extra days on the weekends to try to meet that objective.

至於我們的產量，COVID 仍對營運造成影響。因此，上季確實有相當多員工缺勤，對產量造成一些影響，雖不算重大，但確實解釋了部分落差。本季我們正加班以確保能達成年度目標。因此我們在週末也安排額外工作日，力求達成該目標。

In addition, starting next week, we've added a unit of production at our MC Mining operation in Appalachia that will be fully staffed and producing some additional tons in the fourth quarter going into next year. So we are looking at adding some production next year. That will be driven primarily by, again, working extra hours and extra days, as well as maybe adding a few units. So that 6% to 12% will be largely dependent on labor force and supply chain. We feel good about having the equipment based on what we have within our operations. That's going to be an availability issue for most people, but not for us as far as the equipment availability, I'm speaking of.

此外，從下週開始，我們在阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）的 MC Mining 營運新增了一個生產單位，將配置完整人力，並在第四季增加一些額外噸數，延續到明年。因此我們正著眼於明年增加部分產量。這主要將由再次加班、增加工時與工作日所帶動，並可能再增加少數單位。因此，6% 到 12% 的增幅將在很大程度上取決於勞動力與供應鏈。我們對設備方面感到有信心，基於我們營運內部現有的設備。對多數人而言這會是可用性問題，但就設備可用性而言，我指的是對我們不是問題。

Labor, we are feeling good about our ability to track labor since we have commitments that are starting to grow over the next 3 years and strong support from our domestic customers that have given us sufficient signals to provide the confidence to try to bring on a unit or two. That growth right now is probably 2/3, mostly in the Illinois Basin, is basically where the growth is, except for the MC Mining that I spoke of earlier. I think that answers your questions, unless there's a follow-up.

在勞動力方面，我們對追蹤與確保人力的能力感到樂觀，因為未來 3 年我們的承諾量正在增加，且國內客戶給予強力支持，提供了足夠訊號，使我們有信心嘗試再啟用一到兩個單位。目前的成長大約有 2/3、主要在伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin），基本上成長就在那裡，除了我先前提到的 MC Mining 之外。我想這回答了你的問題，除非你還有追問。

Yes, Joe. No, I appreciate the color there. Absolutely. If I may, kind of shifting over to the pricing side of the equation, it looks like here -- in this year, in 2021, you guys layered on nearly 1 million tons, pretty strong pricing levels. Obviously, your full year guidance moved up by -- it's like about $1.60 at the midpoint. If we look at 2022, it looks like you basically doubled your committed and priced tons there. Now that you guys have such a significant portion of 2022 locked in, can you give us any idea how pricing looks like for '22?

是的，Joe。不，我很感謝你補充的細節，確實如此。如果可以的話，我想把話題轉到定價面向。看起來今年、也就是 2021 年，你們新增了接近 100 萬噸，且定價水準相當不錯。顯然你們的全年指引在中位數上調了——大約是每噸 1.60 美元左右。若看 2022 年，看起來你們基本上把已承諾且已定價的噸數加倍了。既然你們已鎖定 2022 年相當大一部分，你們能否讓我們了解一下 2022 年的定價大概會是什麼樣子？

Well, given the new high we have, it's hard to give you a price target, say, that there's still uncertainties there. Prices are continued to be strong, we are booking some at very attractive prices relative to what this year's prices are. At the same time, there was quite a bit of tonnage that we booked that was earlier in the cycle, so we didn't -- we haven't been able to time everything at the top of the market, but it's safe to say that we expect revenues to be higher next year. I can't give you a precise number right now, but we feel like next year 2022 is going to be a very attractive year, relative to what we've seen in the last 2 or 3 years.

嗯，鑑於我們目前創下的新高，要給你一個價格目標其實很難，因為那裡仍然存在不確定性。價格持續強勁，我們也以相對於今年價格而言非常具吸引力的價格簽下了一些合約。同時，我們也在週期較早階段就預訂了相當多的噸數，所以我們並沒有——我們無法把所有時點都抓在市場頂部，但可以肯定的是，我們預期明年的營收會更高。我現在無法給你一個精確數字，但我們覺得明年、也就是2022年，相較於過去2到3年，將會是非常具吸引力的一年。

Got it. I appreciate that, Joe. And then just maybe one final question. I know I asked you last quarter for your thoughts on free cash flow allocation. I think you said you'd be better positioned to answer that on the next call. Obviously, you guys felt strongly enough about what you're seeing in the markets to increase double the distribution really. You also added some acreage on the oil and gas side.

了解。謝謝你，Joe。然後也許最後一個問題。我知道我上季問過你對自由現金流配置的看法。我記得你說你會在下一次電話會議上更有條件回答。顯然，你們對市場所見的情況信心很強，才會把配息幾乎加倍。你們也在油氣端新增了一些土地/礦權面積。

I understand there's some uncertainty out there still, as you mentioned in your prepared remarks, but maybe any other color you can provide on what your priorities are from a capital allocation standpoint or with the potential step-up in free cash flow you guys could see next year?

我理解如你在準備稿中提到的，外部仍有一些不確定性，但就資本配置的角度，或是你們明年可能看到自由現金流上台階式提升的情況，是否還能提供一些額外的說明，你們的優先順序會是什麼？

Nate, one of the uncertainties or a headwind that we're looking at, is just what the Biden administration is going to do. They promoted these infrastructure bills, which on the one hand tries to encourage workers with what we call true infrastructure, and then they've got a social infrastructure bill that tends to ask peoples not -- people not to work.

Nate，我們正在關注的不確定性或逆風之一，就是拜登政府接下來會怎麼做。他們推動這些基礎建設法案，一方面試圖透過我們所稱的真正基礎建設來鼓勵勞工；另一方面，他們又有一個社會基礎建設法案，傾向於要求人們——不——讓人們不要工作。

I don't know what's going to happen there. It's just amazing to me that for 2 or 3 months, they stick with one particular type bill and then all of a sudden, everything is changing and nobody really knows what it's going to be in the bill or what the impact is going to be. I think the positive news for the people in the coal business, it looks like Senator Manchin has been successful in keeping out some of the draconian measures that were in the earlier bills. But we really need to see what in the world comes out of the Biden administration this quarter heading into next year and what their reaction is going to be, relative to whether it be legislation, incentivizing alternatives, more importantly, what position are they going to take towards our financial institutions and access to capital because there have been signs recently that the Federal Reserve has been encouraging the banks not to lend the coal industry. So we need to really assess how the Biden administration handles the rest of the year as we think about how we allocate capital going into 2022 and beyond.

我不知道那會怎麼發展。對我來說很不可思議的是，他們在2到3個月內一直堅持某一種特定法案，然後突然之間一切都在改變，沒有人真正知道法案裡會是什麼，或影響會是什麼。我認為對煤炭產業的人來說，正面的消息是，看起來Manchin參議員成功把早期法案中的一些嚴苛措施擋在外面。但我們真的需要看看本季拜登政府在邁向明年之際到底會推出什麼，以及他們的反應會是什麼——不論是立法、鼓勵替代方案，更重要的是，他們對金融機構與資本取得會採取什麼立場，因為最近有跡象顯示聯準會一直在鼓勵銀行不要放貸給煤炭產業。因此，當我們思考在2022年及之後如何配置資本時，我們需要真正評估拜登政府在今年剩餘時間的作法。

I think the fundamentals are very strong. We're seeing a lot of opportunities in the oil and gas sector. We're continuing to evaluate things in the transition. Most of those things appear to have a little longer lead time instead of immediate type acquisitions, but we're continuing to spend quite a bit of time looking in that area. So our challenges, like most people, now are supply chain shortages, transportation shortages, weather, the economy, buying regulations, inflation is a big one so -- and COVID, I mean. What's with the pandemic going to do? Is it going to subside? Or are we going to see another wave.

我認為基本面非常強勁。我們在油氣領域看到很多機會。我們也持續評估能源轉型相關的事項。這些事情大多看起來需要更長的前置時間，而不是立即型的收購，但我們仍投入相當多時間在那個領域。因此，我們的挑戰跟大多數人一樣，現在是供應鏈短缺、運輸短缺、天氣、經濟、採購法規、通膨——這是很大的一項——還有COVID。也就是說，疫情會怎麼發展？會趨緩嗎？還是我們會看到另一波。

So there's just a lot of different issues in front of us, but we feel like we're well positioned to manage those going forward and we had better clarity. But like I said, assistance on trying to pass this legislation at a time when there's already a worker shortage. I don't know how that's going to shake out.

所以我們面前有很多不同的議題，但我們覺得自己處於良好位置，能在未來持續管理這些問題，而且我們也會有更清晰的能見度。但就像我說的，在已經存在勞工短缺的時候還要推動通過這些立法的協助，我不知道最後會怎麼收場。

Got it. Joe, I appreciate those comments and obviously all the variables there. Just real quick, just to follow-on, on the labor side of things and then the inflation as you just pointed out as well as you guys are seeing. Any thoughts on what that might add on the cost side going into next year?

了解。Joe，謝謝你的評論，顯然那裡有很多變數。很快追問一下，關於勞動力面以及你剛提到的通膨、你們也正在看到的情況。你對明年成本端可能增加多少，有什麼想法嗎？

We're hoping that our productivity improvements will offset those increases, but there's definitely inflationary pressure with steel prices, natural gas prices, oil prices, labor components, small relative to some of the others that are double digit in prices, but we think our margins will expand next year based on the benefit of higher revenues that will more than offset any cost increases.

我們希望生產力改善能抵消這些增加，但鋼材價格、天然氣價格、油價、勞動成本等確實存在通膨壓力。相較於其他一些價格呈現兩位數上漲的項目，勞動成本的比重較小，但我們認為明年在更高營收帶來的效益下，我們的利潤率將會擴大，且足以抵消任何成本上升。

Our next questions come from the line of Lin Shen with Hite.

下一位提問者是來自Hite的Lin Shen。

That's a great quarter. And I'm just wondering some of your peers talk about that they set a target to reduce their direct operating greenhouse gas emission target. And I'm just wondering for Alliance, is there such a approach? Or is there anything you kind of working on? You think some low-hanging fruit you can do for maybe improve your ESG?

這是一個很棒的季度。我想請教的是，你們一些同業提到他們設定了降低直接營運溫室氣體排放的目標。我想問對Alliance來說，是否也有類似做法？或你們是否正在推動一些事情？你覺得有沒有一些比較容易做到的項目，可以用來改善你們的ESG？

Not sure. It didn't come very clear to me what your question, could you repeat the question?

不太確定。我沒有很清楚理解你的問題，你可以再重複一次嗎？

I'm just like -- some company, coal companies talk about, they can -- they're working on to reduce their greenhouse gas emission for their operations. I'm just wondering, is Alliance also working on some approach to reduce your greenhouse gas emission for your operations or some other like -- work like that?

我的意思是——有些公司、煤炭公司提到，他們正在努力降低其營運的溫室氣體排放。我想問的是，Alliance是否也在推動一些方法來降低你們營運的溫室氣體排放，或其他類似的工作？

We're constantly looking at efficiency opportunities. We've also made some small investments in some offsets, carbon offsets on methane emissions from closed operations, which we're continuing to look at. We're looking at other credits also potentially in the forest areas -- timber area. So that would be my response to that. Brian, do you have anything more?

我們一直在尋找效率提升的機會。我們也在一些抵換上做了小額投資，例如針對已關閉作業的甲烷排放所做的碳抵換，我們也持續在看。我們也在看其他的額度，可能是在森林——木材領域。所以我的回覆大概是這樣。Brian，你還有要補充的嗎？

No. Nothing to add.

沒有。沒有要補充的。

So you don't see any near-term big opportunity for you to invest something like carbon capture? You see that as quite or -- you don't foresee any near-term opportunities being there?

所以你們不認為短期內會有很大的機會讓你們投資像碳捕捉這樣的項目？你覺得那相當——或——你不預期短期內會有相關機會？

I think the carbon capture will be more on the consumption side, not on the operating side at the utility level, which I don't really see anything in the near-term on that from our existing customer base.

我認為碳捕捉會更多發生在使用端，而不是營運端，也就是在公用事業端的層級；就我們現有客戶基礎而言，我短期內並沒有看到那方面會有什麼。

Got it. And also want to follow-up, when you look at 2022, do you think about you probably will export more than 2021? Or what do you think about export market in 2022?

了解。另外想追問，當你們看2022年時，你們認為出口量可能會比2021年更多嗎？或者你對2022年的出口市場有什麼看法？

We do believe the export market is going to be constructive, it's going to be robust. It will be there for us. I think what we have to balance is what are the demands for our domestic customers. And so it's going to be a matter of communication and commitment. We -- have a long time -- for the longest time, really rely on our domestic base. And I think if we're asking our customers that for new commitments to commit for 3 years. And if they would commit for 3 years, I think our preference would be to serve that market as opposed to be in the export market on a short-term basis. If on the other hand, we've got some export customers that are willing to contract or commit multiple years also, so we're looking for long-term supply so that we can support bringing on the additional people to meet those needs. It could be higher, it could be lower depending on what the domestic market brings.

我們確實相信出口市場會是建設性的，會很強勁，對我們而言會存在。我認為我們需要平衡的是國內客戶的需求是什麼。因此，這將取決於溝通與承諾。我們——長期以來——一直以國內客戶基礎為依靠。我想如果我們要求客戶做新的承諾、承諾3年；如果他們願意承諾3年，我們的偏好會是服務那個市場，而不是以短期方式參與出口市場。另一方面，如果我們有一些出口客戶也願意簽約或承諾多年，我們也在尋求長期供應，這樣我們才能支持增聘人員以滿足需求。出口量可能更高，也可能更低，取決於國內市場的情況。

Our next questions come from the line of Shelly McNulty with Loomis.

下一位提問者是來自Loomis的Shelly McNulty。

I just want to go back to your comments about kind of leading on Biden administration and kind of concerning comments from the Fed in regards to advising banks not to lend to coal. Is that kind of, at this point, prohibiting you from being able to come to refinance your bonds that are callable? Is that -- would you characterize as stopping you from doing it at this point? Or if you wanted to refi some bonds, do you have banks that would be willing to act as your agents?

我想回到你先前提到拜登政府的相關評論，以及聯準會就建議銀行不要放貸給煤炭產業所發表的令人擔憂的言論。就目前而言，這是否正在阻礙你們為那些可提前贖回的債券進行再融資？你會把它描述為目前正在阻止你們這麼做嗎？或者如果你們想要為部分債券再融資，你們是否有願意擔任你們承銷/代理的銀行？

We think the markets are open today. It's not a today issue. It's trying to think through what our access to capital be from the banks, in particular, when our revolver renews in a couple of years. So that's the primary concern right now. I think the bonds where interest rates are and where the strength of our balance sheet is, we've gotten some favorable responses currently. But there's just an uncertainty there that just puts a premium on us to have a strong balance sheet.

我們認為目前市場是開放的。這不是今天的問題。問題在於要思考未來我們從銀行取得資本的可得性，特別是當我們的循環信貸在幾年後需要續約時。所以這是目前的主要擔憂。我認為就債券而言，考量利率水準以及我們資產負債表的強度，我們目前已獲得一些正面的回饋。但仍存在不確定性，這也使得我們必須更重視維持強健的資產負債表。

We just feel like that there's -- it's hard to know 3 years from now where the markets are going to be, given how fast they've gone up. Will there be a balance or not, I mean, I'm a believer that we're going to have the supply chain disruption for a while. I just don't see anything changing that, especially if the Biden administration passes this second slug of $2 trillion that puts money in people's pockets and encourage them not to work. So if people don't show up to drive trucks, at the ports or anywhere throughout the supply chain of our economy, I'm just very concerned that we're going to continue to have a lot of disruption in the supply side of the business. And it could go to anything and everything.

我們只是覺得——很難知道三年後市場會走向哪裡，因為它們上漲得太快了。會不會回到平衡，我的意思是，我相信供應鏈中斷還會持續一段時間。我看不出有任何事情會改變這一點，尤其是如果拜登政府通過第二筆 2 兆美元的方案，把錢放進人們口袋裡並鼓勵他們不去工作。所以如果人們不出來開卡車、在港口工作，或在我們經濟供應鏈的任何環節出現缺工，我非常擔心我們會在商業供給端持續出現大量中斷。而且這可能影響到任何事情、所有事情。

Yes. I mean that's an area that we're not immune to having just products coming to the coal mine as an example. I mean, it affects everything throughout the economic food chain here. So I think the policies really need to be focused on what's good for the economy as opposed to the 2022 election, which is my opinion, is what's driving their urgency to try to get something passed. It has nothing to do what's right for America, in my opinion, but we just have to wait and see. I can't. Yes.

是的。我的意思是，那是一個我們也無法免疫的領域——例如產品運到煤礦這件事。我是說，它會影響這裡整個經濟食物鏈的每一個環節。所以我認為政策真的需要聚焦在什麼對經濟有利，而不是 2022 年選舉；在我看來，正是選舉在驅動他們急著想讓某些東西通過。依我看，這跟什麼對美國是正確的無關，但我們只能等著看。我不能。是的。

Okay. Got it. And then for your exported tons, what is the major market that you're exporting to at this point?

好的。了解。那麼就你們的出口噸數而言，目前主要出口市場是哪裡？

So, we have markets to India and some to Europe, and some on the Middle East, a little bit to the Far East, not a lot.

所以，我們有出口到印度的市場，也有一些到歐洲，還有一些到中東，少量到遠東，但不多。

And what's the kind of breakeven that you need to see takes to make the margin more attractive on the export side, get a better return on?

那在出口端，要讓利潤率更具吸引力、取得更好的回報，你們需要看到的損益兩平大概是什麼水準？

The price is there. I mean the price markers are there. It's just a matter of whether we should be selling into the export market or the domestic market. And we're further challenged by the fact that we really have no supply to sell for the next 2 quarters and maybe 3. So when we're looking at what participation we would have in the export market, unless we can bring on these additional tons, we're looking at second half of next year. A lot can happen in that price curve compared to where we are today. But I still believe that there's definitely going to be an opportunity from a price standpoint for us to sell into that market. It's really just a matter of where the domestic customers, would they prefer to have the tons stay in America, are they not willing to commit longer term, and if they don't, then we'll probably end up turning to the export market.

價格是到位的。我的意思是，價格指標都在那裡。只是問題在於我們應該賣到出口市場還是國內市場。而且我們還面臨更大的挑戰：接下來 2 個季度、甚至可能 3 個季度，我們其實沒有供應可以賣。所以當我們在看我們會以什麼程度參與出口市場時，除非我們能把這些額外的噸數帶上來，否則我們看到的是明年下半年。相較於今天的位置，那條價格曲線在那之前可能會發生很多變化。但我仍然相信，從價格角度來看，我們肯定會有機會把產品賣到那個市場。真正的問題只是國內客戶——他們是否希望這些噸數留在美國、他們是否不願意做更長期的承諾；如果他們不願意，那我們很可能就會轉向出口市場。

But on the shipments that got impacted by logistical issues that, I would assume, mostly just impacted the domestic shipments, not your exported shipments. So if you can't move the tons because of the domestic freight or whatnot, can you kind of move them into the export market quickly on a spot basis just to kind of get those tons out? Or how does that work?

但在那些因物流問題而受影響的出貨上，我猜主要影響的是國內出貨，而不是你們的出口出貨。所以如果因為國內運輸或其他原因而無法把噸數運走，你們能不能在現貨基礎上很快把它們轉到出口市場，讓這些噸數先出去？還是說實務上是怎麼運作的？

Yes, the transportation is going to be impacting both domestic and exports at the same time. So it's not -- there's only so many train crews. They're having employee work issues also, trying to fill their seats on their train. So most of it is a labor issue for the railroads. You've got the vessels on the seas, just a -- it's a logistics timing issue. So again, our challenge in America is most producers are all sold out. So it's hard to take full advantage of these high prices that you see in the near-term.

是的，運輸會同時影響國內與出口。所以不是——列車乘務人員就那麼多。他們也有員工出勤的問題，想把火車上的座位補滿。所以對鐵路公司來說，大部分是勞動力問題。海上又有船舶——這就是一個物流時點的問題。所以再說一次，我們在美國的挑戰是，多數生產商都已經全數售罄。因此很難充分利用你在短期內看到的這些高價格。

Okay. And the ability to restock inventory for next year is kind of limited in the sense that some of the capacity that closed during the pandemic, is it able to quickly restart? Or has there been too much domestic coal capacity permanently shut because of the rhetoric of you don't want the coal anymore? How do you -- is it ever going to be possible for the utilities to restock inventory levels to a point where we have a good cushion? And dependent on the -- I know that's dependent on the policy, too, but are they wanting to restock? Are they comfortable with operating at these levels of inventory? Have they have a...

好的。那明年補庫存的能力在某種程度上是受限的，因為疫情期間關閉的一些產能，能否快速重啟？還是說因為「你們不再需要煤」這種言論，太多國內煤炭產能已經被永久關停了？你怎麼看——公用事業公司是否還有可能把庫存補到我們有一個良好緩衝的水準？而且這也取決於政策——我知道這也取決於政策，但他們想補庫存嗎？他們對以目前這種庫存水準運作感到安心嗎？他們有沒有……

Utilities would love to be restocking right now. But they're more focused on just maintaining their -- getting the coal that they got under contract so that they're prepared for the winter without having to run out coal. I mean they're very low, the lowest I've seen in a long time. And so everybody is focused on trying to make sure we meet the commitments that they've made.

公用事業公司現在很想補庫存。但他們更專注於維持——把合約下已經簽的煤拿到手，這樣他們就能為冬季做好準備，而不至於把煤燒到用完。我是說，他們的庫存非常低，是我很久以來見過最低的。所以大家都在專注於確保我們能履行他們已做出的承諾。

I think as far as restocking from a producer standpoint, yes, the pandemic did impact coal production by 20%. And once you close those operations, it is tough to bring them back. I think that thinking of new operations, I know there's a couple of people out there trying to do it, but most of what we see of new production is all metallurgical coal. There's just been an abandonment by most producers of the thermal business. I mean we're one of the very few that's committed to the thermal business for the life of the power plants through 2035, 2040, 2045. So it's hard for people to get financing to open new thermal mines. I just don't see it happening.

我認為就生產商補庫存而言，是的，疫情確實讓煤炭產量下降了 20%。而一旦關閉那些作業，要把它們再拉回來是很困難的。我認為如果是想開新作業，我知道外面有少數人正在嘗試，但我們看到的新產量大多都是冶金煤。多數生產商基本上已經放棄了動力煤業務。我是說，我們是少數仍承諾在電廠壽命期間持續做動力煤的公司之一，一直到 2035、2040、2045。所以要取得融資去開新的動力煤礦很難。我就是看不到它會發生。

But there is excess capacity because of the pandemic for people like us to where we don't have to make large investments. We just have to hire people to get the full capacity. And I think that's what most other people would be doing. Most other people that are in the thermal business are doing it the way we're doing it, and that's really just working extra hours and trying to increase their production that way as opposed to thinking about making capital investments that would bring on supply that would have an overhang in the future.

但因為疫情的關係，像我們這樣的公司其實有閒置產能，所以不需要做大額投資。我們只需要雇人，就能把產能拉到滿載。我認為大多數其他人也會這麼做。大多數仍在動力煤業務中的公司都跟我們一樣做法，也就是加班、並試著用這種方式提高產量，而不是去考慮做資本投資、把供給拉上來，結果未來又形成供給壓力。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew Fields with Bank of America.

接下來的問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Matthew Fields。

I just wanted to ask about kind of the strong balance sheet that you sort of highlighted that, that's sort of a continuing priority for you. Pre-pandemic, you had always kind of talked about 1 turn of leverage as that kind of comfortable level. And now as we get sort of into a more favorable environment for you and you're starting to increase the distribution, we're kind of at that 1 turn of leverage, and I just wanted to get a sense of where you are at this inflection point of balancing the balance sheet versus shareholder interest and kind of where you want to see the balance sheet maintained as you kind of try to address shareholders that haven't had their distribution in a while.

我想問一下你們所強調的強健資產負債表——這似乎一直是你們的優先事項。疫情前，你們一直談到把槓桿維持在 1 倍左右是比較舒適的水準。現在隨著環境對你們更有利、你們也開始提高分配，我們大概就在 1 倍槓桿附近。我想了解在這個拐點上，你們如何在維持資產負債表與股東利益之間取得平衡，以及當你們試著回應那些一段時間沒有拿到分配的股東時，你們希望資產負債表維持在什麼樣的水準。

I think the objective is the same. I think our next year, probably because EBITDA is going to be higher, you're going to see that drop below that. Our concern is 2023, there's a lot of plants that are scheduled to close in the coal space. We need to see again what the Biden policies do, not, only legislatively, but from a regulatory standpoint as to whether or not these coal plants will stay up longer or whether they'll close faster.

我認為目標是一樣的。我認為明年可能因為 EBITDA 會更高，你會看到那個數字降到更低。我們擔心的是 2023 年，煤炭領域有很多電廠計畫要關閉。我們需要再看看拜登政策會怎麼做——不只是立法面，還有監管面——以判斷這些燃煤電廠是會撐得更久，還是會更快關閉。

And so when we're trying to think about the transition, we need to be able to continue to make acquisitions so that our EBITDA will grow from things other than coal. So that as we look to 2030, 2035 that our company has strong growth for the long term instead of trying to think that the coal business is going to be around for the next 50 years, which would allow us to return to coverage ratios like we've had when we had more security, that we had a longer runway.

因此當我們在思考轉型時，我們需要能夠持續進行併購，讓我們的 EBITDA 能從煤炭以外的業務成長。這樣當我們看向 2030、2035 時，我們的公司能有長期的強勁成長，而不是去假設煤炭業務還會存在未來 50 年——那種假設才會讓我們能回到以前那種覆蓋比率，因為那時我們更有把握、跑道更長。

So that -- I think both the access to capital and the future demand for our product are two major issues that influence what our reserves have to be so that we can have the ability to have a strong balance sheet, so that we can survive in no matter what environment is presented to us, but at the same time, still be able to return sufficient amount of cash to the shareholders, which I support strongly as a major shareholder. But we have to be prudent in looking not only for the short term, but for the intermediate term and the challenges our industry faces. And I'm hopeful that -- as I said in my prepared remarks, I'm hopeful that our policymakers would accept the fact that you can't replace fossil fuels overnight.

所以——我認為資本取得與我們產品的未來需求，是兩個影響我們必須保留多少準備金的主要議題，讓我們能有能力維持強健的資產負債表，無論面對什麼環境都能生存下來；但同時也仍能把足夠的現金回饋給股東——作為大股東，我非常支持這一點。但我們必須審慎，不只看短期，也要看中期，以及我們產業所面臨的挑戰。我也希望——正如我在事先準備的發言中所說——我希望我們的政策制定者能接受一個事實：你不可能一夜之間取代化石燃料。

And I don't know why the financial community thinks that we can. I don't know why they can't see the need to finance fossil fuels through the transition as opposed to saying, "Well, I know the transition is going to occur until 2035, 2040, but I'm not -- I'm going to stop lending to you tomorrow." That just doesn't make sense to me. But unfortunately, there are banks out there that are taking that position. And so it influences how we can think about our balance sheet, and therefore, we can't use leverage like most other industries can. So when you look at our balance sheet, it is conservative relative to others because we do have lenders that are shying away from the coal world, unfortunately.

而我不知道為什麼金融界會認為我們做得到。我不知道為什麼他們看不出在轉型期間仍需要為化石燃料提供融資，而不是說：「好吧，我知道轉型會一直持續到2035年、2040年，但我不——我明天就停止借錢給你。」這對我來說完全說不通。但不幸的是，確實有一些銀行採取了那樣的立場。因此這會影響我們如何思考資產負債表，也因此我們無法像大多數其他產業那樣使用槓桿。所以當你看我們的資產負債表時，相較於其他公司是偏保守的，因為不幸地，我們確實有放款人正在迴避煤炭領域。

So not at the risk of oversimplifying, it sounds like trying to play some offense and defense, with offense being the royalty business and then defense being kind of your strong balance sheet to -- in the absence of information on what the regulatory and legislative policy is going to be, maybe that 1 turn of leverage, which was a pre-pandemic level is -- are you saying is that -- I don't want to put words in your mouth, so is $450 million of debt too much right now? Or...

所以如果不過度簡化的話，聽起來像是在同時打進攻與防守：進攻是權利金業務，防守則是你們強健的資產負債表——在缺乏對監管與立法政策將如何發展的資訊下，也許那1倍的槓桿（疫情前的水準）——你是在說那個——我不想把話塞到你嘴裡，所以現在4.5億美元的債務太多了嗎？還是……

No.

不。

No.

不。

No. We think that that's very doable and we could even take on some more. But what I'm trying to say is we look at different scenarios. And we feel very good about the next 4 or 5 years. If markets were working, we would be having a totally different conversation. But unfortunately, we've got government interference in markets, and it goes through everything we do, whether it's a FERC, whether it's the Fed, whether it's the regulatory, I mean, there's constantly, whether it's the legislative giving when and so are all these tax credits when they don't need them. I mean, they say they don't need them and yet the government keeps going, they want to throw the $300 billion at them according to the last thing I read. And some people tell me that it's really going up to $600 billion over 20 years.

不。我們認為那非常可行，甚至還可以再多承擔一些。但我想表達的是，我們會看不同的情境。我們對未來4到5年非常有信心。如果市場運作正常，我們會有一場完全不同的對話。但不幸的是，政府對市場的干預存在，而且貫穿我們所做的一切——不論是FERC，不論是聯準會（Fed），不論是監管——我的意思是，總是有各種因素，不論是立法端在給予、以及這些稅收抵免到底何時、為何要給，明明他們不需要。我是說，他們說自己不需要，但政府仍持續推進；根據我最後看到的內容，他們想要砸3000億美元在上面。也有人告訴我，20年下來實際上會上升到6000億美元。

I mean, when it was a year to a year to a year, now all of a sudden, they think that they need to do it for 10 years, what's that all about? So yes, so we feel like we can sustain $500 million, $600 million of debt. But at the same time, we need to see how these policies impact other people's behavior towards -- it's not what we can support, it's what we can borrow at a reasonable price.

我的意思是，原本是一年一年一年地延，結果現在突然覺得需要做10年，這到底是怎麼回事？所以是的，我們覺得我們可以承受5億、6億美元的債務。但同時，我們需要看這些政策如何影響其他人的行為——重點不是我們能承受多少，而是我們能以合理的價格借到多少。

What the financial institutions will allow us to do.

金融機構會允許我們做什麼。

Yes, if that makes, yes.

是的，如果這樣說得通的話，是的。

So practically speaking, does that mean that you're going to have to hold more cash on your balance sheet and depend less on the revolver, which may or may not be as available to you after 2023?

所以就實務上而言，這是否意味著你們必須在資產負債表上持有更多現金，並且較少依賴循環信貸額度（revolver），而該額度在2023年之後可能會、也可能不會像現在這麼容易取得？

Yes, or we're in the process of looking at alternative markets. And there are some, there are people out there that see the strong credit and realize that yes, we're going to be there for the next 20 years and that we're a solid credit. But so there are alternatives that we're looking at. We just don't have a good idea what the pricing is going to be 2 years from now as opposed to the pricing today. I mean, it's attractive today, but we don't need the money today, and we need it a couple of years from now.

是的，或者我們正在評估替代市場。外面確實有人看得到我們強勁的信用狀況，也明白是的，我們未來20年都會在，而且我們是穩健的信用體質。所以我們正在看一些替代方案。只是我們對兩年後的定價會是什麼樣子，沒有很好的把握，相較之下今天的定價——我的意思是，今天很有吸引力，但我們今天不需要這筆錢，而是兩年後才需要。

Are you talking about going into the private debt market or sort of a private revolver with a nonbank institution?

你是在說進入私募債市場，或是與非銀行機構做某種私募的循環信貸（private revolver）嗎？

Yes, the latter.

是的，後者。

Our next questions come from the line of Scott Ferguson with Pacific Value.

下一個問題來自Pacific Value的Scott Ferguson。

Just a couple of questions. I'll just rattle them off and I'll let you go. But I know you guys touched on this in an earlier question, but just ballpark, the amount of tonnage you guys have booked for next year. How much was booked before this recent price run-up? And then secondly, you guys in the past have mentioned investments that you guys were close to pulling the trigger or were looking at that were outside of oil and gas. Are those still on the table and potential timing? So, Thats it.

我只有幾個問題。我就快速問一問，然後就不耽誤你們了。我知道你們在前面一個問題有提到，但大概估一下，你們明年已經簽下（booked）的噸數是多少？其中有多少是在這一波近期價格上漲之前就已經簽下的？第二，你們過去提過一些投資，你們差不多要扣扳機、或正在看的，且是在油氣以外的領域。那些還在考慮範圍內嗎？可能的時程是什麼？就這些。

Yes. As far as the booking of business, I'd say that most of this was really pretty ratable ever since our last call. So we book some in August, September, October. So I'd say it's probably 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. I don't know, maybe it's a little -- maybe it's something in that neighborhood to be what I would guess. I haven't really looked at it that way. But I would say that that's probably in that ZIP code of 1/3, 1/3, 1/3, maybe -- yes, I don't know right now.

是的。就業務簽約（booking）而言，我會說自從我們上一次電話會議以來，大多數其實是相當平均、按部就班地進行。我們在8月、9月、10月都有簽一些。所以我會說大概是1/3、1/3、1/3。我不知道，可能有一點——可能大概就是那個區間，是我會猜的。我沒有真的用那種方式去看。但我會說大概就在那個「郵遞區號」的範圍：1/3、1/3、1/3，可能——是的，我現在也不確定。

No, that's about right. I mean, I think if you look at our committed tons at the end of the second -- third quarter compared to the end of the second quarter, we about doubled it this quarter. And then as we mentioned in the call, since the end of the third quarter, we booked another 10.7 million tons of volume. So tough to time to market Obviously, I think those characterization of we are constantly in the market, we're constantly booking agreements at pricing that's attractive at that time. So we definitely caught some of the uplift. I mean the fact that we were able to increase our full year sales price realizations by $1.10 in 1 quarter, speaks to that, but it has been occurring on a more ratable basis.

不，那差不多是對的。我的意思是，我想如果你看我們在第二——第三季末的承諾噸數，和第二季末相比，我們這一季大概翻倍了。然後如同我們在電話會議中提到的，自第三季末以來，我們又簽下了另外1,070萬噸的量。所以很難去踩準市場時點。顯然，我認為那種描述——我們一直都在市場上、一直在以當時具吸引力的價格簽訂協議——是正確的。所以我們確實抓到了一部分上行。我的意思是，我們能在一個季度內把全年銷售實現價格提高1.10美元，就說明了這點，但它其實是以更平均的節奏發生的。

And we increased last quarter, also in anticipation of some of that. So we've got -- I mean, our revenue is up, we're $150 million, I think, for the year. So we were able to capture some of that before the July call, and then we add some after.

而且我們上個季度也提高了，是為了預先反映其中一部分。所以我們已經——我的意思是，我們的營收上升了，我想今年增加了1.5億美元。所以我們在7月那次電話會議之前就抓到了一些，之後也再加了一些。

As far as the acquisitions, nonfossil, what we're -- we've looked at in some of the transition-type investments. We're seeing significant inflation in some of the fundamental elements to go into different aspects of the various different alternatives that we've been looking at. We still have most of the products are actually supplied from overseas from China. So there's still been some issues on what the tariffs are going to be and not be. So as we see the economics of what has driven the growth in some of those renewable spaces, looking forward, it appears to us that the costs are going to be higher, but we haven't seen a desire on PPAs as an example of adjusting to that.

至於收購、非化石燃料方面——我們在看一些轉型類型的投資。我們看到我們所評估的各種替代方案中，某些基礎要素的成本出現顯著通膨。我們仍然有多數產品其實是從海外、從中國供應。所以關於關稅會是什麼、不會是什麼，仍然存在一些問題。因此，當我們觀察推動某些再生能源領域成長的經濟性因素，往前看，在我們看來成本會更高，但我們還沒有看到例如PPA（購電協議）有相應調整的意願。

We've also sort of formed a view that if there's going to be a fast acceleration towards wind, solar batteries, then we think that prices are going to be better than a little later than they are today, and it may be prudent to wait a while before jumping into that space, especially if there's 10-year tax credits instead of 1-year tax credits. So much of what was driving a 1-year deal was -- or trying to do something sooner than later was because tax credits were expiring, it sounds like they're going to get extended. So for me, that takes some of the urgency off and allow us for participation at a better entry point than trying to do something sooner compared to later.

我們也形成了一個看法：如果風電、太陽能與電池要快速加速，我們認為價格在稍晚一點會比今天更好，因此在跳進那個領域之前，等待一段時間可能更審慎，尤其是如果是10年期的稅收抵免，而不是1年期的稅收抵免。過去很多推動一年期交易——或想要早做而不是晚做——的原因，是因為稅收抵免即將到期；但聽起來它們會被延長。對我而言，這就降低了一些急迫性，讓我們可以在更好的進場點參與，而不是急著現在做、相較於晚點做。

Our next question comes from the line of Arthur Calavritinos with ANC Capital.

下一個問題來自ANC Capital的Arthur Calavritinos。

It's great to see these numbers in black and white, so good for you and good for us. Question I have Joe, I'm reading all the stuff in India, 3 days worth of supply. Spain is a disaster. England had to turn on a coal plant, which they basically don't blow up, but they've realized the wind doesn't blow and all this other stuff. And I was wondering if those guys have to -- they have to take their inventories up worldwide. You're realizing it now. What does that mean?

很高興看到這些數字白紙黑字呈現，所以對你們好、對我們也好。Joe，我的問題是：我在看印度那邊的各種報導，只有3天的供應量。西班牙是一場災難。英格蘭不得不重啟一座燃煤電廠——他們基本上沒有把它炸掉，但他們已經意識到風不會一直吹，還有其他這些問題。我在想，那些國家是否必須——他們必須在全球範圍內把庫存拉高。你們現在也看到了。那代表什麼？

I mean, for you, because you made a statement earlier, which caught my attention when you said you'd rather keep the coal domestically because you want 3-year contracts, and I get that. And at some point, I get I think the guys in India, pick a country are going to be like, we're going to play, and we're going to do the 3-year contracts or something like that. And I'm sure you're probably getting phone calls from those guys. So how does this play out, because I just got to think your phone is going to be ringing off the hook with guys are finally saying, "Okay, I'm not going to do 1 year or less than a year contract. I want to go longer for a certain price," because if you run out of electricity in like India, I mean, the guy running the utility is going to get killed, right? I mean in all these countries. I mean, I don't think the guys -- people would get what's going on out there. So just -- if you could just expand on that.

我的意思是，對你而言，因為你先前提到的一段話引起了我的注意：你說你寧可把煤留在國內，因為你想要3年期合約，我理解。而且在某個時間點，我想印度那邊（隨便挑個國家）的人會說：我們要進場，我們要做3年期合約之類的。我也確定你大概正在接到那些人的電話。所以這會怎麼發展？因為我不得不認為，你的電話會被打爆，因為終於有人說：『好，我不做1年或不到1年的合約了。我想在某個價格下拉長期限。』因為如果像印度那樣的地方缺電，我是說，負責公用事業的那個人會被『弄死』，對吧？我是說在這些國家都是如此。我是說，我不覺得那些人——大家會理解外面正在發生什麼。所以——如果你能就這點多談一些。

Yes. So a couple of things. We -- as I mentioned earlier, we are having conversation with some export customers that are willing to commit longer term, back to your point. Second...

是的。所以有幾點。我們——如我先前提到的，我們正在與一些願意承諾較長期的出口客戶對話，呼應你剛才的重點。第二……

Is that news to them? Is that like do they finally acquiesce and -- okay, is that the new paradigm?

這對他們來說是新聞嗎？他們是不是終於讓步了——好吧，這就是新的典範嗎？

Yes. This year, we actually had a customer that committed for a full year. Normally, they're quarter-to-quarter, vessel-by-vessel is what we participated in. So this year, we've had actually 2 customers that have committed for longer term within a year. Now we're talking about even longer.

是的。今年我們其實有一位客戶承諾了整整一年。通常他們是按季、按船一船一船地做，我們參與的也是那種模式。所以今年我們其實有2位客戶在一年期內做了較長期的承諾。現在我們正在談更長的期限。

I think when you look at Europe, I mean one of the -- you're exactly right. I mean, it's sort of -- should be a wake-up call. But what we're seeing is now you've got oil being -- replacing natural gas even. These guys are trying to scramble around to try to make sure that people have enough gas for the winter. So it's -- I've never seen anything like it, is all I can say. And...

我想當你看歐洲時，我是說其中一個——你完全說得對。我的意思是，這某種程度上——應該是一記警鐘。但我們看到的是，現在甚至出現用石油——來替代天然氣。這些人正四處奔走，試圖確保冬天大家有足夠的天然氣。所以——我只能說，我從沒見過這種情況。而且……

Go ahead. Sorry, go ahead. I'm sorry. Go ahead.

你繼續。抱歉，你繼續。對不起。你繼續。

Yes. But we're very focused on trying to take full benefit of what the markets give us. But we feel that our best policy is to really think longer term than short term, given the headwinds facing our coal industry. I mean politically, like I've mentioned before.

是的。但我們非常專注於盡可能充分把握市場給我們的機會。不過我們認為，鑑於煤炭產業面臨的逆風，我們最好的策略是真正以較長期而非短期來思考。我是說在政治層面，就像我之前提過的。

No, look, I mean, I don't know what industry would have been like if you took the pro forma closures for '23 and you had them this year, right? And then those electrons got substituted by nat gas, I mean I'm in Boston, nat gas in Maine is like at the pat terminus, there's like $20, right? We're at [$5.50] on Cushing. And guys still don't get this, because they look at gasoline in terms of what energy costs are rather than electricity until it hits, which is going to start hitting in about 2 or 3 months.

不，你看，我是說，如果你把2023年的那些按備考（pro forma）計算的關停量提前到今年發生，我不知道這個產業會變成什麼樣，對吧？然後那些電量被天然氣替代——我是說我人在波士頓，緬因州的天然氣價格在管線末端大概是20美元，對吧？而我們在庫欣（Cushing）是[5.50美元]。但大家還是不明白，因為他們用汽油的角度去看能源成本，而不是電力，直到它真正打到帳單上——而這大概會在2到3個月後開始發生。

And can you get work -- I've talked to guys, energy guys, and one of the things that's come back from some utility guys. Well, what they worry about is the ability you guys being able to get workers an extra shift, restart a mine, because I'm sure there's a lot of guys that even though the pay would be greater, probably wouldn't want to go back because they're like, I can make more money for a year, but then the administration and all the talk that coal is going away, other than make less money and have more certainty in what I'm doing than just go to a coal -- I mean, mine coal for a year. I'm just wondering how tough it is.

那你們能不能——我跟一些能源圈的人聊過，其中一些公用事業的人回饋的一點是：他們擔心你們是否有能力找回工人、加開一個班次、重啟一座礦，因為我確定有很多人即使薪資更高，可能也不想回去，因為他們會想：我可以多賺一年錢，但接著政府與各種『煤炭要被淘汰』的說法——與其少賺一點但工作更確定，我何必只回煤礦——我是說，只挖一年煤。我只是想知道這有多難。

That's why it's important to get long-term contracts so that we can not only talk about it, but reinforce it with commitment. There's potential that we could have some even longer-term contracts that we're in conversations with right now. But one of the things I may have mentioned this, I had so many calls, I don't know which call, whether it's last quarter or not, but we have one customer that actually came to our coal mines and talked to our men saying, we need you for 15 years. That's how long at a minimum. That's how long our plants are going to run, so we appreciate what you do and even though we can't commit for 15 years contractually because of company policy, but we're here to tell you that we need you. And that was very impactful.

這就是為什麼取得長期合約很重要，這樣我們不只是口頭說說，而是用承諾來強化。現在我們正在對話中，確實有可能拿到更長期的合約。不過有件事我可能提過——我接了太多通電話，我也不確定是哪一通、是不是上季——但我們有一位客戶實際到我們的煤礦，對我們的礦工說：我們需要你們15年，至少要15年。我們的電廠至少會運轉那麼久，所以我們感謝你們所做的一切。即使因為公司政策，我們無法在合約上承諾15年，但我們來這裡就是要告訴你們：我們需要你們。那件事非常有影響力。

And so what we've seen is with the fortunes that have turned and with the price signals that we have and the opportunity to reposition our pay policies without in a way to make it more attractive. People have had a taste of going to a manufacturing job that is the same thing every day, whereas they come to coal mine, it's different every day. Every day they work, they're working in a different place. And so we've had great success. We've hired over 150 people in the last quarter that had left us earlier in the year because they see the opportunity over the next several years. And as I mentioned, we were just able to recruit 2 shifts in Eastern Kentucky, which is amazing given the fact that we're competing against metallurgical coal guys that are trying to hire the same folks.

所以我們看到的是，隨著情勢好轉、價格訊號出現，以及我們有機會重新調整薪酬政策、讓工作更具吸引力——人們嘗試過製造業工作，那種每天做一樣的事；但來煤礦，每天都不一樣。他們每天上班都在不同的地方工作。因此我們非常成功。我們在上一季雇用了超過150人——這些人年初曾離開我們——因為他們看到了未來幾年的機會。而且如我提到的，我們剛在肯塔基州東部成功招募到2個班次，這很驚人，因為我們正與冶金煤業者競爭，他們也在招募同一批人。

So we've got great benefits, we've got great culture, we've got great people. We feel if anybody can hire employees, it's us. So we feel that -- I'm sure there's other of our competitors feel the same way. But I mean we've -- like I said, we've been able to hire that many people just in the last quarter, given the strength of these 3-year contracts that we've been able to secure during that time. So we're -- yes. Now at the same time, if Biden comes out, decides to pay people more money to stay at home.

所以我們有很好的福利、很好的文化、很棒的人。我們覺得如果有人能招到員工，那就是我們。我們也覺得——我相信其他競爭對手也會這麼想。但我是說，我們——如我所說，光是上一季我們就能招到那麼多人，原因在於我們在那段期間成功簽下這些3年期合約的強度。所以我們——是的。不過同時，如果拜登出來，決定付更多錢讓人待在家裡。

Yes. Not everybody became -- not everybody became a computer coder, like the Trump administration ago, said, the coal miners are going to become computer programmers. So yes. Right. And let me ask you one other thing. You said something too, when the utilities -- if they mothball a coal plant and to restart it, it doesn't happen overnight. You made a statement like that earlier on the remarks. I mean...

是的。不是每個人都變成——不是每個人都變成電腦寫程式的，就像川普政府以前說的：煤礦工人會變成電腦程式設計師。所以是的。對。那我再問你一件事。你也提到過，當公用事業把燃煤電廠封存（mothball）後，要重啟不是一夜之間就能做到。你在前面的發言中有那樣的說法。我是說……

That was a coal mine, not the utility.

那是指煤礦，不是公用事業。

Okay. Got it. It's the mines.

好，了解。是礦場。

Not the utility. I think once a coal plant is offline, it's very, very -- it's very unlikely that it will start back up. Now having said that, there is a plant in the U.K. that they went back and brought out of...

不是公用事業。我認為一旦燃煤電廠下線，就非常、非常——非常不可能再重新啟動。話雖如此，英國有一座電廠，他們確實把它從……

Out of mothball.

從封存狀態。

Yes. But it's unlikely that you'll see any coal plant that's been closed brought back into service until the policies change. Unless the government says, we need you, like they did in 1970s when we had an energy crisis here.

是的。但在政策改變之前，你不太可能看到任何已關閉的燃煤電廠被重新投入運轉。除非政府說：我們需要你們，就像1970年代我們這裡發生能源危機時他們做的那樣。

Do you think in -- last one and then I'll take it with you guys offline. I got to think there's got to be a price of nat gas electricity eventually that gets people to get off your back and realize what's going on and plus like I think with the Uri super storm, the cold storm and the events in Texas and Houston. I mean to me, that would have been a wake-up call, but it seems like we've forgotten about it.

你覺得——最後一個問題，然後我就不在線上占用你們時間了。我不得不想，天然氣發電的電價終究會到某個程度，讓人們不再找你們麻煩、並意識到正在發生什麼；再加上像Uri超級風暴、寒潮，以及德州與休士頓的事件。我是說，對我來說，那本該是一記警鐘，但看起來我們好像已經忘了。

As I think about it and you think about it, is there like a price where people, the electricity bills, like I said, they haven't been reset yet for the rates, they're starting to, but they haven't fully and plus we were in a seasonal low. That's the wake-up call. I mean, because I think that eventually price drives all regulations.

當我這樣想、你也這樣想時，有沒有一個價格門檻，讓人們——電費帳單——就像我說的，費率還沒完全重設，雖然開始在調了，但還沒有完全；而且我們還處在季節性低點。那才是警鐘。我是說，因為我認為最終價格會驅動所有監管。

Do you think so? When you look at fossil fuels, mostly oil, and some natural gas, what it does and permeates through any and all products this morning. I think it was Wall Street Journal had a deal on baby diapers and showing the increase in cost of baby diapers and traced it back to lumber and oil. And that's true with so many products that we use. So I think that's the one thing that most people in America don't understand is all the byproducts that we use day to day that are a derivative of oil. And -- but back to your question, I think it's going to take more than price. I think it's going to take blackouts before the politicians start to say, "Wow, I didn't know my policies were going to impact people's lives like they did in Texas, where you had over 50 people die." I'm afraid that that's what it's going to take to get the policymakers and CEOs of banks and blackouts (inaudible) to realize. That the policies we're advocating here, and they're going to China and investing over there, but they won't say a word. China is 70% coal-fired generation. They got more power plants being built today than we have in existence, and they say nothing. You think that would wake up America. But...

你覺得是這樣嗎？當你看化石燃料，主要是石油，還有一些天然氣，它在今天早上幾乎滲透到任何與所有產品之中。我想是《華爾街日報》有一篇談到嬰兒尿布的報導，展示嬰兒尿布成本的上升，並追溯到木材和石油。這在我們使用的許多產品上都是真的。所以我認為美國大多數人不了解的一件事，就是我們日常使用的所有副產品，其實都是石油的衍生物。然後——回到你的問題，我認為光靠價格還不夠。我認為在政治人物開始說：「哇，我不知道我的政策會像德州那樣影響人們的生活，當時有超過50人死亡。」之前，恐怕得先發生停電。我擔心這就是讓政策制定者、銀行的CEO，以及停電（聽不清）去意識到的代價：我們在這裡倡議的政策，卻跑去中國投資，但他們一句話也不說。中國70%的發電是燃煤。他們今天正在建的電廠，比我們現有的還多，但他們什麼也不說。你會以為那會喚醒美國。但……

Yes. No, you're right. Unfortunately, I agree it's going to have to take blackouts, like -- I'm in the Boston area, like in January or February, when it's cold and well, you shut down electricity to manufacturing plants when I was a kid in the '70s, that's -- I think that's what happened. They just shut stuff down. And even FERC sent a notice out to the grid operators in this region, And you just said you got to store more nat gas and it's like, thanks for the warning, but people don't get it yet. You're going to need the blackouts and in the winter time or something -- unfortunately, something like that. Okay. unfortunately.

是的。不，你說得對。不幸的是，我同意，恐怕得靠停電才行。像——我在波士頓地區，比如一月或二月，天氣很冷的時候。嗯，我小時候在70年代，他們會把電力供應切給製造工廠——我想那就是當時發生的事。他們就把一些東西直接關掉。甚至FERC也向本地區的電網營運商發出通知。而你剛才說你得儲存更多天然氣，這就像是：謝謝提醒，但人們還沒意識到。你會需要在冬天之類的時候出現停電——不幸的是，得發生那樣的事。好吧。不幸的是。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Cosgrove with Bloomberg.

我們的下一個問題來自彭博（Bloomberg）的Andrew Cosgrove。

Just one, if you could just give us an idea of where current ILB prices are today. And then, I guess, along the same lines would be assuming if you could expound it's like the new kind of range for gas, obviously, prop month is [$5]. But if we were to settle somewhere closer to [350], what do you think the right price for ILB coal is in that environment?

只有一個問題，如果你能給我們一個概念，說明目前ILB價格今天大概在哪裡。然後，我想同樣脈絡下，如果你能延伸談談天然氣新的區間，顯然近月大概是[$5]。但如果我們結算在更接近[350]的地方，在那樣的環境下，你認為ILB煤的合理價格會是多少？

Yes. I think most of the publications you see out there are showing prices in the $80 to $90 range for Illinois Basin pricing today. I think that anything above $4 can support prices at if you're just looking at coal versus gas competition. At the same time, if you start thinking about coal on coal, it would drop the price down to some other price level, which we just don't see happening in 2022. That may happen towards the end of the year, may not. I just feel like that it's really difficult to bring on enough volume to meet the demand.

是的。我想你在外面看到的大多數刊物，今天顯示伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin）的價格大約在80到90美元區間。我認為只要天然氣高於4美元，若你只是看煤與氣的競爭，就能支撐那樣的價格。同時，如果你開始思考煤對煤的競爭，價格會降到另一個水準，但我們在2022年並不認為會發生。那可能在年底前後發生，也可能不會。我只是覺得要增加足夠的產量來滿足需求真的很困難。

I mean, as I said in my prepared remarks, if there had been enough coal supply, we would have seen more coal consumed in the fourth quarter than what we're going to see. And so right now, as far as trying to get coal mined now, you can get Powder River Basin in the market easier than you can the underground mines in the East. And then you're also facing the competition in the export market, like an earlier caller talked about that there are some folks that are looking more to just sell in the export market in the short term. But I can't give you an exact price on the [350]. We don't see it going to 350 . It's possible it could, but will be definitely booked up in 2022 before that happens.

我的意思是，正如我在事先準備的發言中所說，如果煤炭供應足夠，我們在第四季看到的煤炭消耗會比我們將要看到的更多。所以就目前而言，若要現在把煤挖出來，你要把粉河盆地（Powder River Basin）的煤推向市場，比起東部的地下礦更容易。然後你也面臨出口市場的競爭，就像先前一位來電者提到的，有些人短期內更傾向只在出口市場銷售。但我無法給你[350]的確切價格。我們不認為它會到350。它有可能會，但在那發生之前，2022年的產能肯定會先被預訂滿。

All right. Okay. I mean I think the color as far as what you just said with anything over $4 supporting somewhere near spot is pretty telling in of itself, so I appreciate that. I guess the other one would be if you could maybe expand on any inflation on the rail side or the barge side? And maybe if you could just refresh my memory as far as how you guys move coal down to the Gulf Coast?

好。好的。我的意思是，我認為你剛才說的「只要高於4美元就能支撐接近現貨」這點本身就很能說明問題，所以我很感謝。另一個問題是，你能否談談鐵路端或駁船端是否有任何通膨？另外也請你幫我回憶一下，你們是如何把煤運到墨西哥灣沿岸的？

And then, yes, anything as far as what that cost today versus where it was and where it might be going because I know on the nat side for rail specifically, I guess the rules prior to what's coming up next year was around $20 a ton. And obviously, I know we're talking about different geographies, but that's going to double next year. So I was just curious what that looks like in your guys' neck of the woods.

然後，是的，關於那個成本今天是多少、以前是多少、以及可能往哪裡走，因為我知道在天然氣那邊，特別是鐵路，我想在明年即將上路的規則之前，大概是每噸20美元左右。而且很明顯，我知道我們談的是不同地理區域，但明年那會翻倍。所以我只是好奇在你們那一帶看起來是什麼情況。

I think on the transportation side, I don't consider it really inflation as a cost push to their pricing. I think it's more it's all really supply and demand is who can pay the -- who's going to pay what price and what movement.

我認為在運輸端，我不太把它視為通膨造成的成本推升來影響他們的定價。我認為更多是供需問題：誰能付——誰願意付什麼價格、以及要怎麼運。

If we will commit.

如果我們會承諾的話。

Yes. So on the domestic side, on the rail side, that's usually determined by our customers, and then they usually have long-term contracts. They have pricing associated with that. So when we think about pricing for domestic shipments in large part, the customers are able to maintain those prices maybe back to your inflationary type levels. Then when you get into the spot market, it's just based on total supply and demand at the time you're shipping.

是的。所以在國內端、鐵路端，通常是由我們的客戶決定，而他們通常有長期合約，並有相應的定價。因此當我們思考國內出貨的定價時，很大一部分客戶能維持那些價格——也許回到你提到的通膨水準。然後當你進入現貨市場時，就完全取決於你出貨當下的總供需。

And earlier right now or the last 60 days, both rail and barge pricing was up quite a bit to get their fair share as I would say, the economic rent of the higher prices. But going forward, I think that we factored all those in as to how we look at what our cash flows would be. And yes, we're going to have a very strong 2022, unless the bottom falls out of the economy.

而在更早之前、或說過去60天，鐵路與駁船的價格都上漲不少，以取得我所說的——在高價格環境下的經濟租（economic rent）的合理份額。但往前看，我們已把這些都納入我們對現金流的評估。是的，除非經濟突然崩盤，否則2022年會非常強勁。

Okay. And then just the last one would just be around, can you just remind mean where the bookings were for 2023 before 3Q? So where you exited 2Q at on 2023? And I think you said you were at 15.8 million tons right now?

好的。最後一個問題是，能否提醒我一下，3Q之前你們2023年的預訂量是多少？也就是你們在2Q結束時，2023年大概到哪裡？我想你說你們現在是1,580萬噸？

Right. Brian is looking that up, if you got another question or if anybody else has one.

對。Brian正在查，如果你還有另一個問題，或是其他人有問題的話。

Yes. I guess the other one, I think you kind of answered before, but the willingness from utilities to want to keep more coal on the ground from an inventory standpoint. I guess you guys kind of said that it's -- they're just really just trying to focus on what they've contracted out so far and what they're just focusing on those deliveries versus building up some what strategic stockpiles right?

是的。我想另一個問題，你之前有點回答過，但就是公用事業在庫存角度，是否願意在地面上保留更多煤。我想你們剛才有說——他們其實只是專注在目前已簽約的部分，以及專注於那些交付，而不是建立一些策略性庫存，對嗎？

Right. Yes, that's what's happening.

對。是的，現在就是這樣。

And since the second quarter, we've booked about 8.2 million tons into 2023.

而自第二季以來，我們已為2023年新增預訂約820萬噸。

Thank you. There are no further questions after this come. I'd like to turn the call back over to Brian Cantrell for any closing remarks.

謝謝。之後沒有其他問題了。我想把電話交回給Brian Cantrell，請他做結語。

Thank you, Daryl. Good discussion this morning, and we appreciate everybody's time as well as your continued support and interest in Alliance. Our next call to discuss our fourth quarter and your full year 2021 financial and operating results is currently expected to occur in late January, and we hope you will all join us again at that time.

謝謝你，Daryl。今天早上的討論很精彩，我們也感謝各位撥冗參與，以及持續對Alliance的支持與關注。我們下一次電話會議將討論第四季以及2021年全年財務與營運結果，目前預計在一月下旬舉行，希望到時各位能再次加入。

This concludes our call for today. Thanks to everyone for your participation and continued support of ARLP.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與，以及持續支持ARLP。

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Have a great day.

感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議至此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線。祝您有美好的一天。