使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions)
女士們、先生們,感謝你們的支持。此時,所有參與者都處於只聽模式。(操作員指示)
I would now like to turn the conference over to Tahmin Clarke. Please go ahead, sir.
現在我想將會議交給塔赫明克拉克 (Tahmin Clarke)。先生,請繼續。
Tahmin Clarke - Investor Relations
Tahmin Clarke - Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Arlo Technologies' third-quarter 2024 financial results conference call. Joining us from the company are Mr. Matthew McRae, CEO; and Mr. Kurt Binder, COO and CFO. The format of the call will start with an introduction and commentary on the business provided by Matt, followed by a review of the financials for the third quarter along with guidance for the fourth quarter provided by Kurt. We will then take questions. If you have not received a copy of today's release, please visit Arlo's Investor Relations website at investor.arlo.com.
謝謝您,接線生。下午好,歡迎參加 Arlo Technologies 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。與我們一起參加會議的公司有執行長 Matthew McRae 先生;以及營運長兼財務長 Kurt Binder 先生。電話會議的形式將以 Matt 提供的業務介紹和評論開始,然後是第三季度的財務狀況回顧以及 Kurt 提供的第四季度指導。然後我們將回答問題。如果您尚未收到今天發布的副本,請造訪 Arlo 的投資者關係網站 investor.arlo.com。
Before we begin the formal remarks, we advise you that today's conference call contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding our potential future business, operating results and financial condition, including descriptions of our revenue, gross margins, operating margins, earnings per share, expenses, cash outlook, free cash flow and free cash flow margin, guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024, the long-range plan targets, the rate and timing of paid subscriber growth, the transition to our services-first business model, the commercial launch and momentum of new products and services, strategic objectives and initiatives, market expansion and future growth, partnerships with various market leaders and strategic collaborators, continued new product and service differentiation and the impact of general macroeconomic conditions on our business, operating results and financial condition.
在我們開始正式發言之前,我們提醒您,今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述包括有關我們潛在未來業務、經營業績和財務狀況的陳述,包括對我們的收入、毛利率、營業利潤率、每股收益、費用、現金前景、自由現金流和自由現金流利潤率的描述、2024年第四季指引、長期計畫目標、付費用戶成長的速度和時間、向服務優先業務模式的過渡、新產品和服務的商業發布和發展勢頭、戰略目標和計劃、市場擴張和未來增長、與各種市場領導者和戰略合作夥伴的伙伴關係、持續的新產品和服務差異化以及一般宏觀經濟條件對我們的業務、經營業績和財務狀況的影響。
Actual results or trends could differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in Arlo's periodic filings with the SEC, including the most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today, and Arlo undertakes no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. In addition, several non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this call. A reconciliation of the GAAP to non-GAAP measures can be found in today's press release on our Investor Relations website.
實際結果或趨勢可能與這些前瞻性陳述所預期的結果或趨勢有重大差異。欲了解更多信息,請參閱 Arlo 向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期文件中討論的風險因素,包括最新的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告。我們在本次電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於今天的假設,Arlo 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些陳述的義務。此外,本次電話會議也將討論幾個非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們投資者關係網站上今天的新聞稿中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的對帳表。
At this time, I would now like to turn the call over to Matt.
現在,我想將電話轉給馬特。
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Tahmin, and thank you everyone for joining us today on Arlo's third quarter 2024 earnings call. The team at Arlo delivered another strong quarter with total revenue reaching $137.7 million, up 6% from the same period last year, which was elevated due to the Q3 2023 stock in from our Essential 2 product launch across channels. This performance propelled non-GAAP gross profit to nearly $50 million in the quarter and generated $0.11 of earnings per share. The driving force behind the success continues to be our services business, which broke several records in Q3.
謝謝你,塔赫明,也謝謝大家今天參加 Arlo 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。Arlo 團隊又一個季度表現強勁,總營收達到 1.377 億美元,較去年同期成長 6%,這一成長得益於我們在各通路推出 Essential 2 產品後 2023 年第三季的庫存。這項業績推動本季非公認會計準則毛利達到近 5,000 萬美元,每股收益為 0.11 美元。成功背後的驅動力仍然是我們的服務業務,該業務在第三季度打破了多項記錄。
Paid subscribers grew by 255,000, an increase of 70% year over year to reach 4.2 million, and service revenue grew 21% to a record $62 million while total service gross margin rose to over 77%, also a new record for Arlo. And the continuing upward mix across our plans lifted our retail and direct ARPU to a new high of $12.24 per month. In addition to these strong trends in our service business, we launched our latest offering, Arlo Secure 5 right at the end of Q3.
付費用戶成長了 255,000 人,年增 70%,達到 420 萬人;服務收入成長了 21%,達到創紀錄的 6,200 萬美元;總服務毛利率上升至 77% 以上,這也創下了 Arlo 的新紀錄。我們各項計畫的持續上漲使我們的零售和直接 ARPU 升至每月 12.24 美元的新高度。除了我們服務業務的這些強勁趨勢之外,我們還在第三季末推出了最新產品 Arlo Secure 5。
And despite being very early in the rollout, I want to provide an overview of the launch and a sneak peek at the performance we are seeing over the first six weeks. Arlo Secure 5 has innovative new features including person recognition, vehicle recognition, and widgets for iOS and Android that makes controlling the Arlo ecosystem so much more convenient. It also includes our groundbreaking custom detection capability that enables users to create private AI micro models which detect nearly any type of event, dramatically expanding the power of our service.
儘管推出的時間還很早,我還是想對發布情況做一個概述,並讓我們先睹為快前六週的表現。Arlo Secure 5 具有創新的新功能,包括人員識別、車輛識別以及適用於 iOS 和 Android 的小部件,使控制 Arlo 生態系統變得更加方便。它還包括我們突破性的自訂檢測功能,使用戶能夠創建可檢測幾乎任何類型事件的私有 AI 微模型,從而極大地擴展了我們服務的功能。
Arlo Secure 5 also includes in-app purchasing of our services for the first time, creating a purchase path that substantially reduces friction to become an Arlo subscriber, and this release has allowed us to commence internal testing of an advertising model inside our user experience as we previously communicated. Early results from our Arlo Secure 5 launch are impressive. Historically, less than 20% of our paid users sign up for our premium plans which cost more than our single cam and unlimited cam basic plans.
Arlo Secure 5 也首次包含應用程式內購買我們的服務,創建了一條購買途徑,大大減少了成為 Arlo 用戶的阻力,而此版本使我們能夠開始在用戶體驗中對廣告模型進行內部測試,正如我們之前溝通的那樣。我們推出的 Arlo Secure 5 的早期成果令人印象深刻。從歷史上看,只有不到 20% 的付費用戶註冊了我們的高級計劃,而這些計劃的費用高於我們的單攝像頭和無限攝像頭基本計劃。
With Arlo Secure 5, we are witnessing more than 40% sign up for our more premium plan, which is more than two times the historical rate. This is accelerating ARPU on the new subscribers to over $14. We have also seen a doubling of users signing up for annual plans versus month to month. While still early, we expect Arlo Secure 5 to contribute to an increasing retail and direct ARPU heading into 2025 and illustrate opportunities for additional service revenue growth as we explore options to migrate existing users to Arlo Secure 5. We have never seen a service launch have such an immediate impact on key service metrics.
透過 Arlo Secure 5,我們看到超過 40% 的人註冊了我們的更高級計劃,這一比例是歷史水平的兩倍多。這使得新用戶的 ARPU 加速上升至 14 美元以上。我們還發現,與每月訂閱相比,訂閱年度訂閱的用戶數量增加了一倍。雖然還處於早期階段,但我們預計到 2025 年,Arlo Secure 5 將為零售和直接 ARPU 的成長做出貢獻,並在我們探索將現有用戶遷移到 Arlo Secure 5 的選項時,展現額外服務收入成長的機會。我們從未見過一項服務的推出對關鍵服務指標產生如此直接的影響。
As discussed previously, when we look ahead across our channels, the market remains softer in general terms. Some retailers and partners are showing surprising strength, while others are underperforming due to a variety of factors including customer sentiment, hurricane disruptions, and lower foot traffic. Similar to last year, Arlo has decided to be more aggressive in our promotional calendar and pricing as we focused on units sold, which leads to future household subscriptions, and this allows us to test new price points like we did last year ahead of our annual operating plan. Reaching into these lower price points will lower our near-term hardware revenue but propel sales across our partners and drive additional household formation.
正如之前所討論的,當我們展望未來時,我們發現市場總體上仍然較為疲軟。一些零售商和合作夥伴表現出令人驚訝的實力,而其他零售商和合作夥伴則由於顧客情緒、颶風幹擾和客流量減少等多種因素而表現不佳。與去年類似,Arlo 決定在促銷日程和定價方面採取更積極的措施,因為我們專注於銷售單位,這將帶來未來的家庭訂閱,這使我們能夠像去年一樣在年度營運計劃之前測試新的價格點。達到這些較低的價格點將降低我們近期的硬體收入,但將推動我們合作夥伴的銷售並推動更多家庭的形成。
In fact, we are targeting Q4 unit POS in North America retail to nearly double sequentially from Q3 to Q4, which would also represent a nearly 20% increase year over year, comping against our huge launch of Essential 2 in 2023. With our service gross margins for retail and direct paid accounts at nearly 90%, coupled with the positive ARPU trends I mentioned earlier, we expect service revenue to exceed our full year guidance and be on track for strong growth in 2025.
事實上,我們的目標是,第四季度北美零售業的 POS 單位數量將比第三季度環比增長近一倍,這也將意味著同比增長近 20%,與我們在 2023 年大規模推出 Essential 2 的情況相比較而言。我們的零售和直接付費帳戶服務毛利率接近 90%,再加上我之前提到的積極的 ARPU 趨勢,我們預計服務收入將超過我們的全年預期,並有望在 2025 年實現強勁增長。
In addition to this growth, we are seeing continued progress in our pursuit of various strategic partner opportunities. The revenue growth in Europe shows the Verisure partnership remains strong in our last year of the initial term. And as a reminder, this partnership has been renewed for another five years as we look forward to innovating and growing together. Earlier this week phase two of our Allstate partnership was announced with Arlo Security Solutions now being marketed and sold to Allstate's 6 million home insurance customers in the United States and there are several other strategic partners that we hope to announce and provide more information on over the next several quarters.
除了這種成長之外,我們在尋求各種策略合作夥伴機會方面也取得了持續進展。歐洲的收入成長表明,在我們最初任期的最後一年,Verisure 合作夥伴關係依然強勁。值得一提的是,我們期待共同創新與成長,此次合作將續簽五年。本週早些時候,我們宣布了與 Allstate 合作的第二階段,Arlo Security Solutions 目前正在向 Allstate 在美國的 600 萬個家庭保險客戶進行行銷和銷售,並且還有其他幾個戰略合作夥伴,我們希望在接下來的幾個季度內宣布並提供更多資訊。
And finally, I would like to provide an update on our capital allocation plan. Our organic investment is already paying dividends with the successful Arlo Secure 5 launch and our technology investment continues as we begin development on Arlo Secure 6 and plan a large product launch for the second half of 2025 with continued innovation in 2026. Arlo also continues to review possible acquisition or investment options similar to what was conveyed before but will only move forward if we feel it is right for the business and propels us towards our stated long-range target of 10 million paid accounts, $700 million in ARR, and over 25% non-GAAP operating margin. Recently Arlo announced a share buyback program of $50 million which covers the third pillar of our capital allocation plan. A plan will be enabled this quarter, and it is likely that you will see Arlo active in the market in the short-term.
最後,我想介紹一下我們的資本配置計畫的最新情況。隨著 Arlo Secure 5 的成功推出,我們的有機投資已開始獲得回報,隨著我們開始開發 Arlo Secure 6,併計劃在 2025 年下半年推出一款大型產品並在 2026 年繼續創新,我們的技術投資將繼續進行。Arlo 也將繼續審查與先前類似的可能的收購或投資選擇,但只有當我們認為這對業務有利並推動我們實現既定的長期目標(即 1000 萬個付費帳戶、7 億美元的 ARR 和超過 25% 的非 GAAP 營業利潤率)時,我們才會繼續推進。最近,Arlo 宣布了一項 5000 萬美元的股票回購計劃,這涵蓋了我們資本配置計劃的第三支柱。本季將啟用一項計劃,您很可能會在短期內看到 Arlo 在市場上活躍。
And now I'll turn it over to Kurt for a more in-depth review of our Q3 results.
現在我將把時間交給 Kurt,讓他更深入地回顧我們的第三季業績。
Kurtis Binder - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Kurtis Binder - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Matt, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I will start by sharing some financial details and provide an overview of the business for Q3 2024. Total revenue for the third quarter of 2024 came in at $137.7 million, up 6% over the prior year period. In the quarter, service revenue represented about 45% of total revenue, up from 39% in the same period last year as we continue the progression towards the 50% threshold. This shift in our recurring revenue base reflects the continued momentum that we have gained in our transformation to a services-first business and the results are showing the power of the business model.
謝謝你,馬特,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我將首先分享一些財務細節,並概述 2024 年第三季的業務。2024 年第三季總營收為 1.377 億美元,比去年同期成長 6%。本季度,服務收入約佔總營收的 45%,高於去年同期的 39%,我們繼續朝 50% 的門檻邁進。我們經常性收入基礎的轉變反映了我們在向服務優先業務轉型過程中獲得的持續動力,而結果也顯示了該商業模式的力量。
Our installed base of subscribers continued its strong growth path, coming in at 4.2 million paid accounts at the end of Q3, an increase of approximately 255,000 paid accounts in the quarter. Paid accounts reflected a small catch up of Verisure subscribers and, as we have previously mentioned, this quarter concluded substantially all of the Verisure catch up related to firmware upgrades. Going forward, we remain committed to generating 170,000 to 190,000 new paid subscribers on a quarterly basis. Service revenue for Q3 was another record at $61.9 million or a 21% increase over the same period last year. The strong service revenue performance was driven in part by the growth in the overall paid subscriber base, but additionally a mix shift of subscribers to higher price rate plans resulting in ARPU expansion to $12.24 for our retail and direct paid accounts.
我們的用戶安裝群持續保持強勁成長勢頭,第三季末付費帳戶數達到 420 萬個,本季增加了約 25.5 萬個付費帳戶。付費帳戶反映了 Verisure 用戶的小幅追趕,正如我們之前提到的,本季度基本上完成了與韌體升級相關的所有 Verisure 追趕。展望未來,我們仍致力於每季新增 17 萬至 19 萬名付費用戶。第三季的服務收入再創紀錄,達到 6,190 萬美元,比去年同期成長 21%。強勁的服務收入表現部分得益於整體付費用戶群的成長,此外,用戶轉向更高價格套餐的混合推動力導致我們的零售和直接付費帳戶的 ARPU 擴大至 12.24 美元。
Our annual recurring revenue at September 30, was $242 million, up more than 21% over the same period last year. I want to highlight the strength of our services revenue and ARR which helped deliver strong topline revenue performance and contributed to Arlo's improving profitability with Q3 non-GAAP operating income up 28% and free cash flow up a robust 150% when compared to the same period last year. Product revenue for Q3 was $75.8 million, higher than our second-quarter level but down about 4% when compared to product revenue generated in the same period last year.
截至 9 月 30 日,我們的年度經常性收入為 2.42 億美元,比去年同期成長 21% 以上。我想強調我們服務收入和 ARR 的強勁表現,這有助於實現強勁的營收表現,並有助於 Arlo 盈利能力的提高,與去年同期相比,第三季度非 GAAP 營業收入增長 28%,自由現金流增長 150%。第三季的產品收入為 7,580 萬美元,高於第二季的水平,但與去年同期的產品收入相比下降了約 4%。
As Matt discussed earlier, consumer purchase decisions as we enter into the mass market segment of DIY security have shifted to lower price points. This market dynamic is resulting in a significant reduction in ASPs for product hardware across the industry. Based on these conditions, we are focused on driving incremental POS volume to deliver on our services strategy. And so far, this approach is working as we shipped a total of 1.5 million devices worldwide compared to 1.3 million in the prior period. We will participate at these lower price points in the upcoming holiday season, and we continue to believe that paid subscriptions are paramount to creating the best returns for our business. And with the current market dynamics, leveraging product pricing is our best opportunity to drive paid account additions.
正如馬特之前所討論的,隨著我們進入 DIY 安全大眾市場,消費者的購買決策已經轉向較低的價格點。這種市場動態導致整個產業產品硬體的平均售價大幅下降。基於這些條件,我們專注於推動 POS 銷售成長以實現我們的服務策略。到目前為止,這種方法是有效的,因為我們在全球範圍內總共出貨了 150 萬台設備,而上一期為 130 萬台。我們將在即將到來的假期以這些較低的價格參與其中,我們仍然相信付費訂閱對於為我們的業務創造最佳回報至關重要。鑑於目前的市場動態,利用產品定價是我們推動付費帳戶增加的最佳機會。
Last year's launch of our low-cost Essential 2 camera has been critical to our success in the market, benefiting us in two distinctive ways. First, as the market has become more value conscious, having a product that is both attractive in price and quality that appeals to this customer segment enables Arlo to remain competitive. Second, we are able to explore the characteristics of these customers by participating in these lower price segments. We now understand that while they might need inducement through discounted upfront pricing on the device, the propensity to sign up for recurring service has continued to trend favorably and in some cases the metrics that these customers generate are better than we previously anticipated.
去年我們推出的低成本 Essential 2 相機對於我們在市場上的成功至關重要,它以兩種獨特的方式為我們帶來了好處。首先,隨著市場對價值的意識越來越強,擁有價格和品質都具有吸引力的、能夠吸引這一客戶群的產品使 Arlo 能夠保持競爭力。其次,透過參與這些較低價格的細分市場,我們能夠探索這些客戶的特徵。我們現在明白,雖然他們可能需要透過設備的折扣預付價格來吸引他們,但註冊定期服務的傾向仍然呈現良好趨勢,在某些情況下,這些客戶產生的指標比我們之前預期的要好。
Looking to the holiday season, we expect product gross margins to trend downward as we partner with major retailers like Walmart to meet the market dynamics head on and deliver additional paid subscriber growth. As we participate in the mass market adoption of smart security, we will continue to use our product ASPs as a lever to ensure the continued growth trajectory of our services business. In the quarter, approximately $66 million, or 48%, of our total revenue was generated by our international customers. On a year-over-year basis, international revenue was up from the $50 million level or 39% of total revenue in the prior period. Verisure continues to be the driver of this international revenue growth and an outstanding partner for us, delivering strong results in the EMEA region.
展望假期,我們預計產品毛利率將呈下降趨勢,因為我們與沃爾瑪等主要零售商合作,以應對市場動態並實現額外的付費用戶成長。隨著我們參與大眾市場對智慧安全的採用,我們將繼續利用我們的產品 ASP 作為槓桿,確保我們的服務業務持續成長。本季度,我們約有 6,600 萬美元(佔總營收的 48%)來自國際客戶。與去年同期相比,國際收入從 5,000 萬美元或佔總收入的 39% 有所增長。Verisure 繼續成為國際收入成長的驅動力和我們的傑出合作夥伴,在歐洲、中東和非洲地區取得了強勁的業績。
From this point on, my discussion will focus on non-GAAP numbers. The reconciliation from GAAP to non-GAAP figures is detailed in our earnings release, which was distributed earlier today. Our non-GAAP gross profit for the third quarter was $49.5 million, a 12% increase year over year. This resulted in a non-GAAP gross margin of 36% in the quarter. The year-over-year increase in non-GAAP gross profit was attributable to the continued expansion of our services business and improvement in service gross margin, which was offset by a lower product gross margin. Non-GAAP service gross margin for the quarter was 77%, up over 300 basis points from 74% in the same period last year.
從現在開始,我的討論將集中在非 GAAP 數據。我們今天稍早發布的收益報告中詳細說明了從 GAAP 數據到非 GAAP 數據的調整。我們第三季的非公認會計準則毛利為 4,950 萬美元,年增 12%。這使得本季非公認會計準則毛利率達到 36%。非公認會計準則毛利的同比增長歸因於我們服務業務的持續擴張和服務毛利率的提高,但產品毛利率的下降抵消了這一增長。本季非公認會計準則服務毛利率為 77%,較去年同期的 74% 上升 300 多個基點。
The improvement in non-GAAP service gross profit was driven by growth in our total paid subscriptions and improvement in ARPU. Non-GAAP product gross margin for the three- and nine-month periods ended September 2024 was 2.2% and 4.4% respectively, which is generally in line with the guidance that we provided earlier in the year. Total non-GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter were $38.7 million, up from $35.7 million in the same period last year. The year-over-year increase is primarily related to increased marketing spend and investment in Arlo Secure 5. Additionally, as mentioned on our previous earnings call, we plan to increase operating expenses in the back half of the year by a nominal amount, focusing on customer experience and other areas of innovation as part of the organic investment as described in our capital allocation plan.
非公認會計準則服務毛利的成長得益於我們的總付費用戶數的成長和 ARPU 的提高。截至 2024 年 9 月的三個月和九個月的非 GAAP 產品毛利率分別為 2.2% 和 4.4%,這與我們今年稍早提供的指引基本一致。第三季非公認會計準則總營運費用為 3,870 萬美元,高於去年同期的 3,570 萬美元。年比成長主要與增加行銷支出和對 Arlo Secure 5 的投資有關。此外,正如我們上次財報電話會議上提到的,我們計劃在下半年名義上增加營運費用,重點關注客戶體驗和其他創新領域,作為我們資本配置計劃中描述的有機投資的一部分。
In Q3, it is noteworthy that we set a record with $10.8 million in non-GAAP operating profit, or 8% operating margin. Additionally, our operating profit for the year-to-date period of 2024 was $28.6 million, up a remarkable 90% over the same period last year. Further, we posted non-GAAP net income of $11.8 million, which translates into non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $0.11. Our non-GAAP net income year to date for 2024 was $31.8 million, also up about 90% over the same period last year, illustrating the tremendous operating leverage in our model driven by our services business.
值得注意的是,第三季我們的非公認會計準則營業利潤創下了 1,080 萬美元的紀錄,營業利潤率為 8%。此外,我們 2024 年年初至今的營業利潤為 2,860 萬美元,比去年同期成長了 90%。此外,我們公佈的非公認會計準則淨收入為 1,180 萬美元,相當於每股非公認會計準則淨收入為 0.11 美元。我們 2024 年迄今的非 GAAP 淨收入為 3,180 萬美元,比去年同期成長了約 90%,這表明我們的服務業務推動了我們模式中巨大的營運槓桿。
Regarding our balance sheet and liquidity position, we ended the quarter with $146.6 million in available cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. This balance is up more than $20 million since September of 2023. Even more exciting is that we generated free cash flow of $17.4 million during the quarter, which represents a free cash flow margin of over 12% and up more than $10 million over the same period last year. This is driven by increased profitability and enhanced working capital management.
關於我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況,本季末我們擁有 1.466 億美元的可用現金、現金等價物和短期投資。自 2023 年 9 月以來,這一餘額增加了 2,000 多萬美元。更令人興奮的是,我們在本季產生了 1,740 萬美元的自由現金流,這意味著自由現金流利潤率超過 12%,比去年同期增加了 1,000 多萬美元。這是由獲利能力的提高和營運資本管理的加強所推動的。
Free cash flow is the true measure of the successful trajectory of our business, and year to date, we have generated $43 million in free cash flow, which is up 54% when compared to the same period last year. This level of free cash flow growth is tremendous, especially given the general market conditions and shows the resiliency of our business model. Our Q3 accounts receivable balance was $68.6 million at quarter end with DSOs at 45 days, down from 49 days last year. Our Q3 inventory balance was $52 million in line with the levels last year. Inventory turns remained at 5.8 times and in line with our expectations as we continue to optimize our inventory levels in an effort to minimize our spend on freight costs.
自由現金流是我們業務成功軌蹟的真正衡量標準,今年迄今為止,我們已產生 4,300 萬美元的自由現金流,與去年同期相比成長了 54%。這種水準的自由現金流成長是巨大的,尤其是在整體市場條件下,並顯示了我們商業模式的彈性。截至季末,我們的第三季應收帳款餘額為 6,860 萬美元,應收帳款週轉天數為 45 天,低於去年的 49 天。我們第三季的庫存餘額為 5,200 萬美元,與去年水準一致。庫存週轉率保持在 5.8 次,符合我們的預期,因為我們繼續優化庫存水平,並努力最大限度地減少運費支出。
Now, turning to our outlook. The consumer market remains highly promotional, and we plan to be aggressive with our product pricing during the holiday season to drive additional POS volume and in turn paid subscriber growth. As a result of the shift in consumer purchase decisions to the lower price segments, we expect ASPs to continue to decline, resulting in lower product revenue and product gross margins for Q4. Given this trend, we expect fourth-quarter total revenue to be in the range of $116 million to $126 million. While we expect to come in at the lower end of our total revenue guidance for the full year, it is important to note that we expect to exceed our full-year guidance for our services business of $240 million and at a healthier gross margin target of around 80% accident year.
現在,談談我們的展望。消費市場仍然高度促銷,我們計劃在假期期間積極調整產品定價,以推動 POS 銷售增加,進而推動付費用戶成長。由於消費者購買決策轉向較低價格部分,我們預計平均售價將繼續下降,導致第四季度產品收入和產品毛利率下降。鑑於這一趨勢,我們預計第四季度總收入將在 1.16 億美元至 1.26 億美元之間。雖然我們預計全年總收入將處於預期的低端,但值得注意的是,我們預計服務業務的全年收入將超過預期的 2.4 億美元,毛利率將達到更健康的 80% 左右。
While product gross margin may be down, service gross margin will remain strong, and we expect combined non-GAAP gross margins to be higher in the fourth quarter as a result of the mix of revenue shifting more towards services. The key driver of this improvement is the fact that our services gross margin on retail and direct paid accounts is approaching 90%. We expect that our non-GAAP net income per diluted share to be between $0.07 and $0.13 per share, which translates to the midpoint of our EPS guidance for the full year.
雖然產品毛利率可能會下降,但服務毛利率仍將保持強勁,我們預計第四季度綜合非 GAAP 毛利率將會更高,因為收入結構將更多地轉向服務。這項改善的關鍵驅動因素是我們零售和直接付費帳戶的服務毛利率接近 90%。我們預計非公認會計準則每股攤薄淨利潤將在 0.07 美元至 0.13 美元之間,相當於全年每股收益預期的中點。
And now, I'll open it up for questions.
現在,我開始回答問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指示)
Jacob Stephan, Lake Street.
雅各‧史蒂芬 (Jacob Stephan),湖街。
Jacob Stephan - Analyst
Jacob Stephan - Analyst
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Matt, Kurt, you guys made some comments on the call talking about kind of Q4 POS nearly doubling sequentially. And I think you guys said you had 1.5 million devices shipped in Q3. Does that -- help me clarify this. Does that essentially assume that you guys will kind of ship 3 million in Q4? Maybe just some clarification there.
嗨,大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。馬特、庫爾特,你們在電話會議上發表了一些評論,談到第四季度 POS 幾乎環比翻倍。我認為你們說過第三季的設備出貨量為 150 萬台。這能幫我澄清一下嗎?這是否基本上假設你們將在第四季出貨 300 萬輛?也許只是一些澄清。
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, it's -- POS doubling from Q3 to Q4 is a measurement on cameras, and that's what actually drives the subscribers on the backend. So we're not including accessories into that. Those may grow as well. But when we look at what's driving subscriptions, we're looking at how many cameras did we sell through meaning at POS in Q3 versus what we think is going to happen in Q4 based on the promotional activity and what we're hearing from the retailers as things are starting to ramp up in the quarter. So we're expecting the POS in North America retail only cameras at nearly double what we did in Q3, which in turn would obviously drive subscribers. So it doesn't really equate to the 1.5 million because that's across very various regions and includes accessories.
是的,從第三季度到第四季度,POS 數量翻了一番,這是對攝影機的衡量,這實際上是推動後端訂閱者的動力。所以我們不包括配件。這些也可能會成長。但是,當我們研究推動訂閱量的因素時,我們會關注第三季度透過 POS 銷售了多少台相機,以及根據促銷活動和我們從零售商那裡聽到的消息,我們認為第四季度的銷量會是多少,因為本季度銷量開始回升。因此,我們預計北美零售 POS 相機的數量將幾乎是第三季的兩倍,這顯然會推動用戶數量的成長。所以它實際上並不等於 150 萬,因為這涉及不同的地區,並且包括配件。
Jacob Stephan - Analyst
Jacob Stephan - Analyst
Okay, got it. That's clear. And then maybe just talk about Secure 5 a little bit here. Obviously, you guys are seeing some nice uptake. 40% are subscribing to the premium plan. But maybe could you help us understand how much of the customer base is currently on Secure 5? Is this broadly rolled out to all retail accounts or any color there?
好的,明白了。這很清楚。然後也許我們在這裡稍微討論一下 Secure 5。顯然,你們看到了一些不錯的進展。 40% 的人訂閱了高級方案。但也許您能幫助我們了解目前有多少客戶群使用 Secure 5?這是否廣泛推廣至所有零售帳戶或任何顏色?
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, no, great question. So we've had a couple great things happened in the last quarter. One is, like we said, the planning for Q4 and looking forward to a significant uptick in POS, which will lead to share gains in the market, which we're excited about. And as you know, we've been talking about that all year. But the second one is exactly what you talked about, Arlo Secure 5 launch really been in the market about six weeks as I mentioned in the prepared remarks. Like I said, it is the largest impact or biggest difference I've ever seen from just a service rollout on the key metrics.
是的,不,很好的問題。上個季度我們發生了幾件大事。一是,正如我們所說,第四季度的規劃以及對 POS 的大幅上漲的期待,將帶來市場份額的成長,我們對此感到興奮。正如你所知,我們整年都在談論這個問題。但第二個正是您談到的,正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣,Arlo Secure 5 實際上已經上市大約六週了。正如我所說的,這是我所見過的僅透過服務推出就對關鍵指標產生的最大影響或最大變化。
Right now. it's available to all new subscribers. So we haven't done anything with our installed base. Although we already have some of our installed base, current paid accounts starting to cancel and actually buy the new plan because they're excited and they've seen the announcement, but mostly those are holding still at this point. It's really just being offered for new signups as of the last six weeks. I would say there's probably, you know, a certain number, maybe 80,000 to 100,000, just as an estimate, that are on the new account. So the data is a little bit early. But like you said when we look at our top two tier accounts, our premium accounts, used to be 20% or less, now it's 40% or more, so more than doubling.
現在。所有新訂戶均可使用。因此,我們還沒有對已安裝的基礎採取任何措施。儘管我們已經擁有一些安裝基礎,但目前的付費帳戶開始取消並實際購買新計劃,因為他們很興奮並且已經看到了公告,但大多數人目前仍保持原樣。事實上,該服務只是在過去六週內為新註冊用戶提供的。我想說,新帳戶上可能有一定數量的用戶,大概 8 萬到 10 萬,這只是估計。所以數據有點早。但就像您所說的那樣,當我們查看我們的頂級兩級帳戶時,我們的高級帳戶過去是 20% 或更少,現在是 40% 或更多,因此增加了一倍多。
And that's driving the ARPU, which was already growing in kind of $12 -- to kind of $12 -- a little higher than $12. I think it's $12.24 in the quarter. We're now seeing well over $14 on those new subscribers. So to your point, that's what we're seeing on new subscribers. And what we're looking at as we go through this quarter and we start to look at Q1 next year is how do we migrate and actually bring all of our users onto Arlo Secure 5 and make that an exciting and potentially accretive event.
這推動了 ARPU 的成長,ARPU 已經從 12 美元左右增加到了 12 美元左右,略高於 12 美元。我認為本季是 12.24 美元。我們現在看到這些新訂戶的收入遠遠超過 14 美元。正如您所說,這就是我們在新訂戶身上看到的。而當我們度過這個季度並開始展望明年第一季時,我們正在關注的是如何遷移並真正將所有用戶帶到 Arlo Secure 5 上,並使其成為一個令人興奮且具有潛在增值的事件。
Exciting for the users because all the new feature sets they are getting and we're able to see how people are using Arlo Secure 5 and what to lean into. But obviously, driving that higher ARPU through the entire installed base would be something that is not being accounted for. So those are two of, I would say, the big pieces of news that we're really excited about. Share gain POS lift as we get into Q4, which we've been planning all year, and actually a surprise to the upside in how successful Arlo Secure 5 has been in the early weeks of its rollout.
這對使用者來說是令人興奮的,因為他們可以獲得所有新功能集,並且我們能夠看到人們如何使用 Arlo Secure 5 以及應該依靠什麼。但顯然,透過整個安裝基礎推動更高的 ARPU 是沒有考慮到的。所以我想說,這是兩則讓我們真正興奮的重大消息。隨著我們進入第四季度,POS 市場份額將有所提升,這是我們全年都在計劃的,事實上,Arlo Secure 5 在推出後的最初幾週內取得的成功也令人驚訝。
Jacob Stephan - Analyst
Jacob Stephan - Analyst
Okay. And have you seen a decent uptick in kind of the overall attach rate associated with Secure 5? I know in the past it's been about 65% but any uptake there?
好的。您是否看到與 Secure 5 相關的整體附加率有明顯的上升?我知道過去這個比例大約是 65%,但現在有上升嗎?
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
We're seeing -- so one of the things I mentioned in the call is we've done -- we've enabled in some areas in-app purchases, which is new for us. And on the in-app purchase side, we are seeing an increase in conversion. It's small on a relative basis because we're only testing that in a couple of areas because we want to see how those customers progress through the entire lifespan. But that suggests there is a path to potentially lift conversion. Other than that, it seems really consistent with what we've seen over the last years and across the different cohorts.
我們看到——我在電話會議中提到的一件事就是我們已經做到了——我們在某些領域啟用了應用程式內購買功能,這對我們來說是新鮮事。在應用程式內購買方面,我們看到轉換率有所提高。相對而言,規模較小,因為我們只在幾個領域進行測試,因為我們想了解這些客戶在整個生命週期中的進展。但這顯示存在一條可能提高轉換率的途徑。除此之外,它似乎與我們過去幾年在不同群體中看到的情況一致。
Jacob Stephan - Analyst
Jacob Stephan - Analyst
Okay, got it. Thanks for taking the questions.
好的,明白了。感謝您回答這些問題。
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Yes, you're welcome.
是的,別客氣。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
Mark Cash, Raymond James.
馬克卡許、雷蒙詹姆斯。
Mark Cash - Analyst
Mark Cash - Analyst
Yeah, thanks. This is Mark on for Adam. Good afternoon, guys. Matt, maybe just starting with you on phase two with the new Arlo total security bundle for Allstate, so nicely building upon their relationship, 140 million Allstate Protection Plan customers or 16 million US households are customers of them. So, really big numbers. I'm just wondering how you're thinking about the go-to-market mechanisms for Arlo and penetrating that base. And it might be helpful to maybe put that in context and compare it with the kind of the line of sight you have with Verisure when embarking on that relationship and how successful that's become now.
是的,謝謝。這是馬克為亞當所做的。大家下午好。馬特,也許您剛開始談論 Allstate 推出的全新 Arlo 全面安全套裝的第二階段,因此很好地建立了他們的關係,1.4 億 Allstate Protection Plan 客戶或 1600 萬美國家庭都是他們的客戶。所以,這個數字真的很大。我只是想知道您如何看待 Arlo 的市場進入機制以及如何打入該市場。將其放在上下文中並與你在開始與 Verisure 建立合作關係時的視線以及現在取得的成功進行比較可能會有所幫助。
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, no, great question. So Verisure, as you know, we're five years in -- almost at the end of the fifth year with Verisure and that's been obviously strong partnership. Took a while to grow, although I would say it came out of the gate pretty fast because we were able to implement some things pretty quickly into their systems but definitely grew over those years. I think we'll see something similar to Allstate as far as it'll start slow, but the access to us -- an available TAM for us to address is sizable. As you know, phase one was really us selling Allstate products through arlo.com and starting to figure out how that attaches and how the brands work together in our user base. And what you're seeing in phase two is the opposite, is Allstate starting to leverage emails, in-app messaging, and their own vehicles to their large user base, selling Arlo hardware and service, the ATS bundle through there
是的,不,很好的問題。所以,正如你所知,我們與 Verisure 合作已經五年了——幾乎已經是第五年了,顯然我們之間的合作關係非常牢固。花了一段時間才成長起來,但我想說它起步相當快,因為我們能夠很快地將一些東西實現到他們的系統中,但這些年來它確實成長了。我認為我們會看到與 Allstate 類似的東西,雖然起步緩慢,但對我們的訪問——可供我們解決的 TAM 是相當大的。如您所知,第一階段實際上是我們透過 arlo.com 銷售 Allstate 產品,並開始弄清楚如何將其聯繫起來以及品牌如何在我們的用戶群中協同工作。而你在第二階段看到的是相反的,Allstate 開始利用電子郵件、應用程式內訊息和自己的車輛向其龐大的用戶群銷售 Arlo 硬體和服務,以及 ATS 套裝
Again, I think we're modest in our expectations in phase two. What I would suggest is both phase one and phase two is where you're seeing both parties start to understand how the brands resonate to the different user bases, how the products link together, where the value is being seen, and collecting a lot of data.
我再說一次,我認為我們對第二階段的期望比較適中。我的建議是,在第一階段和第二階段,雙方都應開始了解品牌如何與不同的用戶群產生共鳴、產品如何連結在一起、價值體現在哪裡,並收集大量數據。
And I will tell you there will be future phases, and you can expect things to kind of scale from here. But we're excited now to get the reciprocal that Arlo products and service to Allstate customers because that kind of closes the loop for us to gain some insight over the next couple quarters and plan what's coming next. The overall TAM and available for Allstate in particular is large, and we think what we're seeing through the initial data is we're reaching people that are not buying security through retail and may not have security at this point. So they look like new households or net new addressable households for Arlo, which is exciting.
我會告訴你未來還會有各個階段,你可以期待事情從現在開始擴大規模。但現在我們很高興能夠將 Arlo 產品和服務提供給 Allstate 客戶,因為這為我們在接下來的幾季中獲得一些見解並規劃下一步奠定了基礎。尤其是 Allstate 的整體 TAM 和可用規模非常大,我們認為,透過初始數據我們看到,我們正在接觸那些沒有透過零售購買安全產品並且目前可能沒有安全產品的人。因此,它們看起來像是 Arlo 的新家庭或淨新增可尋址家庭,這令人興奮。
Mark Cash - Analyst
Mark Cash - Analyst
Interesting. Okay, good. Thanks for that. And maybe that kind of ties into a question I had on geos and what you're seeing. So America is down year over year for two quarters in a row. Maybe Allstate is the answer to that. But then you have Europe with some countries ramping really quickly like we see with Sweden, while others are kind of destocking with some scale like we see with Spain. I guess what is causing that divergence, like domestically versus internationally? And I guess if you could kind of talk about what's going on regionally within Europe, that'd be helpful to understand.
有趣的。好的,很好。謝謝。也許這與我對地理位置和您所看到的內容的疑問有關。因此,美國經濟已連續兩季年減。也許 Allstate 就是這個問題的答案。但歐洲的一些國家正在快速增產,就像瑞典一樣,而其他國家則大規模地去庫存,就像西班牙一樣。我猜是什麼導致了這種差異,例如國內與國際的差異?我想,如果您能談談歐洲地區正在發生的事情,那將有助於理解。
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we have to be careful we don't get too detailed in what's happening in Europe. There is some regional stuff there. I would say it's better to kind of look at it on a blended basis. And it depends where Verisure is actually deploying their resources or not given local market dynamics. There are some macroeconomic things that are happening in Europe that are different than the US. That impacts it as well. But overall, I would say, Verisure is strong, as you can see in the quarter, and we expect them to remain strong actually in Q4.
是的,我們必須小心,不要太詳細地了解歐洲正在發生的事情。那裡有一些地區性的東西。我想說最好從混合的角度來看這個問題。這取決於 Verisure 實際部署資源的位置,是否考慮當地市場動態。歐洲正在發生的一些宏觀經濟事件與美國不同。這也對其產生了影響。但總體而言,我想說,正如您在本季看到的那樣,Verisure 表現強勁,我們預計他們在第四季度仍將保持強勁勢頭。
One comment is, in prior years, you'll remember that Verisure ended up destocking sometimes in Q4 leading into the following year for various reasons that we've talked about. We're not sure that's going to happen this year. We think their ordering may remain relatively strong and this is for local regulatory reasons. Chinese New Year for manufacturing ends up earlier. There's a lot of reasons for that. But we think Verisure will remain a pretty strong partner in Q4.
一則評論是,在前幾年,您會記得 Verisure 有時會在第四季度到第二年第四季期間去庫存,原因我們已經討論過了。我們不確定今年是否會發生這種情況。我們認為他們的訂單可能保持相對強勁,這是出於當地監管的原因。製造業的農曆新年提前結束。這其中有很多原因。但我們認為 Verisure 在第四季仍將是我們相當強大的合作夥伴。
When you look at domestic retail versus that, some of that is timing, shipments going into holiday where Verisure get some earlier than we get them here as an example. So we had a pretty strong Q4 from a shipments' perspective, but then POS will be stronger in Q4. And some of that is -- in Q4 or Q3 for us, we didn't lean as hard into Prime Day and a couple of the areas, and we watched some of the price points that are being hit. And so we may have lost a little bit of share in Q3, even though we had a great quarter. What you're seeing is us adjusting to those price points with our retail partners and all of our channel partners going into Q4 and why we're -- we're feeling we're going to see nearly double the POS on camera systems going into Q4. So some of it's timing, some of it's market dynamics, and some of it is kind of relative strategy on where -- when and where you want to stock in.
當您將國內零售與國內零售進行比較時,您會發現其中有些是時間問題,例如假期期間的發貨量,Verisure 會比我們在這裡收到的要早。因此,從出貨量的角度來看,我們的第四季表現相當強勁,但 POS 在第四季的表現將會更加強勁。其中之一是 - 對我們來說,在第四季度或第三季度,我們並沒有那麼重視 Prime Day 和一些其他領域,而且我們關注了一些受到衝擊的價格點。因此,儘管我們第三季的業績表現很好,但我們的市佔率可能還是有所下降。您所看到的是,我們在進入第四季度時與零售合作夥伴和所有通路合作夥伴一起調整這些價格點,這也是我們感覺在進入第四季度時,攝影機系統的 POS 數量將幾乎翻一番的原因。因此,其中一些是時機,有些是市場動態,有些是關於何時何地入股的相對策略。
Kurtis Binder - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Kurtis Binder - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. I'll just highlight something in addition to that and why we shared some commentary regarding the POS is just last year, if you recall, Q3 and Q4 for us were the transition periods where we were going from the Essential 1 to the Essential 2 platform. And the Essential 2 resulted in a fair amount of stock-in in both Q3 as well as in Q4. So you have to factor that into play, which is why we wanted to kind of normalize that factor and really talk about POS, because we think that's the factor or metric that helps us get a clear indication or line of sight to household formation.
是的。除此之外,我只想強調為什麼我們去年分享了一些關於 POS 的評論,如果你還記得的話,第三季和第四季對我們來說是我們從 Essential 1 平台轉向 Essential 2 平台的過渡時期。Essential 2 在第三季和第四季都帶來了相當數量的庫存。所以你必須把這個因素考慮進去,這就是為什麼我們想要規範這個因素並真正談論 POS,因為我們認為這個因素或指標可以幫助我們清楚地了解或了解家庭的形成。
Mark Cash - Analyst
Mark Cash - Analyst
Okay, great. Matt, just kind of going back to your comments on Prime Day and leaning in and -- or maybe not as much there. And I think in your prepared remarks you talked about the customer sentiment kind of being a headwind. You have hurricane disruptions which we know very well about down here. Lower foot traffic.
好的,太好了。馬特,回到你對 Prime Day 的評論,也許沒有那麼多。我認為您在準備好的發言中談到了客戶情緒是一種逆風。我們這裡非常了解颶風造成的破壞。減少人流量。
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
是的。
Mark Cash - Analyst
Mark Cash - Analyst
I'm just wondering how these factors do play into your process of thinking about where to be more aggressive holiday season, because Walmart is obviously an important partner as you go mainstream and broad with your product. But can you lean more into Amazon or Arlo with those disruptions happening?
我只是想知道這些因素如何影響您考慮在假期季節採取更積極舉措的過程,因為沃爾瑪顯然是您產品走向主流和廣泛市場的重要合作夥伴。但是,面對這些中斷,您是否可以更依賴亞馬遜或 Arlo 呢?
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, no, that's exactly it. So when you look at both the price points, but more importantly, especially recently as we plan for Q4 in the final stages, is seeing where things are strong and where weak, and we are seeing strength. So we have certain retailers -- you mentioned one, Walmart -- where we're seeing actually strength and good foot traffic and we see other ones where we don't. And we double -- double clicking in and start to look at the details of that, what's going on and what you're seeing us is adjust some price points and length of certain promotions in some areas and shifting in some areas of the country online when there maybe foot traffic is low. So that could be arlo.com, it could be Amazon as an example, could be a retail.com with one of the retail partners that is seeing less foot traffic but still decent online traffic.
是的,不,就是這樣。因此,當你查看價格點時,但更重要的是,特別是最近,當我們計劃進入最後階段的第四季度時,你會看到哪些方面表現強勁,哪些方面表現疲軟,而我們看到的是強勢。因此,我們看到某些零售商——您提到的沃爾瑪——實際上實力雄厚,客流量良好,而其他零售商則沒有。我們雙擊並開始查看其中的細節,看看發生了什麼,您會看到我們調整了某些地區某些促銷活動的價格點和時長,並在客流量較低時將該國某些地區的活動轉移到線上。因此,這可能是 arlo.com,也可能是亞馬遜,也可能是與某個零售合作夥伴合作的 Retail.com,雖然客流量較少,但線上流量仍然可觀。
So we're making those adjustments. Those are the last adjustments you can really make. You can't change the product you are promoting because those are already shipped in. But what you can do is you can tweak price points, tweak offers, tweak length of offers to then maximize what we're looking for, which is unit POS in Q4 that leads to then future subscribers. And we think we've done a great job optimizing that and we're seeing some real strength from the planning of what we think is going to happen as we get into Q4 and execute through Q4 starting 2025.
因此我們正在做出這些調整。這些是你真正能夠做的最後調整。您無法更改所推銷的產品,因為這些產品已經發貨了。但您可以做的是調整價格點、調整優惠、調整優惠時長,然後最大化我們所尋求的目標,即第四季度的單位 POS,從而帶來未來的訂閱者。我們認為我們在優化這一點上做得很好,而且我們從進入第四季度以及從 2025 年開始執行第四季的規劃中看到了真正的優勢。
Mark Cash - Analyst
Mark Cash - Analyst
Okay, thank you. If I could just ask one more for Kurt. I appreciate the commentary you gave around the Essential 1 to 2 and then stock-in. But how are you thinking about with this promotional on the holiday season, the POS growth? And so how are you thinking about inventory levels throughout the fourth quarter and kind of how that flows into what you're expecting for cash flow to close out the year?
好的,謝謝。如果我可以為庫爾特再問一個問題。我很欣賞您對基本 1 到 2 以及入庫部分所給出的評論。但是您如何看待假期季節促銷活動對 POS 成長的影響?那麼您如何看待整個第四季度的庫存水準以及它如何影響您預期的年底現金流?
Kurtis Binder - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Kurtis Binder - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, a couple of questions embedded in that question. I'll start by saying that first off, as you look at what's happening in the space, we have seen ASPs declining. And so we're prepared for that obviously with Essential 2. And that's allowing us to be very, very promotional in the fourth quarter. So we're prepared to kind of play at price points that we may not have been in that position to play at in the past. And I think that's a good situation to be in. As we look at what's happening at the retailers, we do believe for the North American retail that we will be more into a destocking position this year in Q4 relative to where we were last year again last year because of the load in that occurred over two quarters for Essential 2, that phenomenon doesn't exist. This year we believe the retailers will be more into a destocking position. But all that being said, what we're prepared to do is be very aggressive with the promotional activity ultimately to get those units out into new consumer hands and ultimately convert them into subs in the Q1 and Q2 of 2025.
是的,這個問題中隱藏著幾個問題。首先我要說的是,當你觀察這個領域正在發生的事情時,我們發現 ASP 正在下降。因此,我們顯然已經透過 Essential 2 做好了準備。這使得我們在第四季能夠進行非常有效的促銷。因此,我們準備好以過去可能無法達到的價格點進行競爭。我認為這是一個很好的情況。當我們觀察零售商的情況時,我們確實相信,對於北美零售業來說,今年第四季度我們將處於比去年更多的去庫存狀態,因為 Essential 2 的兩個季度內都出現了庫存增加,這種現象並不存在。我們相信,今年零售商將更傾向去庫存化。但話雖如此,我們準備要做的是積極開展促銷活動,最終將這些產品送到新消費者手中,並最終在 2025 年第一季和第二季將其轉化為訂閱。
Mark Cash - Analyst
Mark Cash - Analyst
Got it. Well, thank you so much, guys, for taking the questions.
知道了。好吧,非常感謝你們回答這些問題。
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions)
謝謝。(操作員指示)
Hamed Khorsand, BWS Financial.
Hamed Khorsand,BWS Financial。
Hamed Khorsand - Analyst
Hamed Khorsand - Analyst
Hi. So my question was really about how you're trying to plan this out. If ASPs are declining, are you going to get the same amount of traction from your -- getting new subscribers on paid accounts?
你好。所以我的問題實際上是關於你如何計劃這件事。如果平均售價下降,您是否還能從付費帳戶的新用戶那裡獲得相同的吸引力?
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we -- obviously at certain price points we don't know. Some of the price points we'll be hitting are ones we've hit on promotion before and we've seen very consistent performance. Early indication is we'll see similar performance as well that it's -- they're really independent decisions by the consumer, but we won't be able to really report that data until we get into Q1.
是的,我們——顯然我們不知道某些價格點。我們將要達到的一些價格點是我們之前在促銷中達到的,我們看到了非常一致的表現。早期跡象表明,我們也將看到類似的表現 - 它們實際上是消費者獨立做出的決定,但直到進入第一季我們才能真正報告該數據。
Hamed Khorsand - Analyst
Hamed Khorsand - Analyst
Okay. And my other question was -- how are you going to basically partner with more of these insurance companies if there is a lot of competition already in your field?
好的。我的另一個問題是——如果您所在的領域已經存在很多競爭,那麼您將如何與更多的保險公司合作?
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Well, what we've noticed is there's actually less competition in the partnership space. And it's one of the reasons Kurt and I have emphasized the strategic accounts being a big part of how Arlo is going to get to where it is today to our long-range plan.
嗯,我們注意到合作領域的競爭實際上較少。這也是庫爾特和我強調戰略帳戶是 Arlo 如何在我們的長期計劃中達到今天的地位的重要組成部分的原因之一。
Partners worry about security. They worry about data privacy. They're looking for somebody who is concentrated in the space and innovating in the space and not this product line or services being more of a side hustle or a small part of a very large company. So what we've seen is there's partners in the insurance space are looking for a trustworthy company, an American company, to be very clear, where they can trust what's happening, where the development is happening and everything, and a company that's really focused on the space and treats people's data correctly and somebody that can they actually innovate with over time. So we're actually seeing less competition in the strategic account area than we are in just physical retail.
合作夥伴擔心安全問題。他們擔心資料隱私。他們正在尋找專注於該領域並不斷創新的人,而不是將該產品線或服務視為副業或大型公司的一小部分。因此,我們看到保險領域的合作夥伴正在尋找一家值得信賴的公司,一家美國公司,非常明確地說,他們可以信任那裡正在發生的事情、正在開發的一切,以及一家真正專注於該領域並正確處理人們數據的公司,一家可以隨著時間的推移與他們一起創新的公司。因此,我們在策略客戶領域的競爭實際上比實體零售領域的競爭要少。
Hamed Khorsand - Analyst
Hamed Khorsand - Analyst
Got it. All right, thank you.
知道了。好的,謝謝。
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
Matthew McRae - Chief Executive Officer
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. There are no further questions. So that concludes today's call. Thank you for joining, everyone. You may now disconnect your lines.
謝謝。沒有其他問題了。今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。