Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

I'd like to remind everyone that today's call and webcast are being recorded. Please note that they are the property of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. and that any unauthorized broadcast in any form is strictly prohibited. Information about the audio replay of this call is available in our earnings press release.

我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議與網路直播將被錄音。請注意，該等內容為 Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. 之財產，任何形式之未經授權播送均嚴格禁止。關於本次電話會議音訊重播的資訊，已載於我們的盈餘新聞稿中。

I'd also like to call your attention to the customary Safe Harbor disclosure in our press release regarding forward-looking statements. Today's conference call and webcast may include forward-looking statements and projections, and we ask that you refer to our most recent filings with the SEC for important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements and projections.

我也想提醒各位注意我們新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述的慣常「安全港」揭露。今天的電話會議與網路直播可能包含前瞻性陳述與預測；我們請各位參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件，其中載有可能導致實際結果與該等陳述及預測存在重大差異的重要因素。

In addition, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call, which management believes are relevant to assessing the company's financial performance. These measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in our earnings presentation, which is available in the Stockholders section of our website. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements or projections unless required by law. To obtain copies of our latest SEC filings, please visit our website at www.apollocref.com or call us at (212) 515-3200.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議中討論若干非 GAAP 指標，管理層認為這些指標與評估公司財務表現相關。這些指標已在我們的盈餘簡報中與 GAAP 數據進行調節，該簡報可於我們網站的股東專區取得。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述或預測之義務。如需取得我們最新的 SEC 申報文件副本，請造訪 www.apollocref.com，或致電 (212) 515-3200 與我們聯繫。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to the company's Chief Executive Officer, Stuart Rothstein.

現在，我想把電話會議交給公司執行長 Stuart Rothstein。

Thank you, operator. Good morning and thank you for joining us on the Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance second-quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm joined today, as usual, by Scott Weiner, our Chief Investment Officer; and Anastasia Mironova, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，接線員。各位早安，感謝各位參加 Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天如往常一樣與我一同出席的有：我們的投資長 Scott Weiner，以及我們的財務長 Anastasia Mironova。

ARI delivered strong performance in the second quarter of 2025, marked by significant progress across originations, portfolio management, and balance sheet optimization. Velocity in loan originations increased as we committed to $1.4 billion of new loans during the quarter, quickly redeploying capital we have received back from both repayments and ARI's focus assets. Year-to-date, ARI has committed $2 billion to new loans. Repayments in the portfolio continue to track expectations with borrowers making progress on their business loans having multiple options for refinancing.

ARI 在 2025 年第二季交出強勁表現，在放款承作、投資組合管理與資產負債表優化方面均取得顯著進展。放款承作速度加快，本季我們承諾新增貸款 14 億美元，迅速將從還款以及 ARI 重點資產回收的資金重新部署。年初至今，ARI 已承諾新增貸款 20 億美元。投資組合的還款持續符合預期；借款人於其商業計畫上取得進展，並擁有多種再融資選項。

As evidenced by the second-quarter activity, we are confident in our ability to redeploy this capital into newly originated loans and continue to identify attractive opportunities across both the United States and Western Europe. ARI continues to benefit from the breadth of Apollo's real estate credit platform and the team's robust originations pipeline to access transaction flow that matches capital received from repayments, eliminating cash drag and enabling ARI to build a diversified loan portfolio. Three of the loans closed in the second quarter were secured by residential properties, continuing ARI's thematic overweight to a sector benefiting from strong secular tailwinds. Loans on residential properties now comprise approximately 25% of ARI's portfolio, representing ARI's largest property's type concentration.

從第二季的活動可見，我們對於將該等資金重新部署至新承作貸款的能力充滿信心，並持續在美國與西歐兩地辨識具吸引力的機會。ARI 持續受惠於 Apollo 不動產信貸平台的廣度，以及團隊強勁的承作管線，得以取得與還款回收資金相匹配的交易流量，消除現金拖累，並使 ARI 能建立多元化的貸款投資組合。第二季完成交割的貸款中，有三筆以住宅不動產作為擔保，延續 ARI 對於受惠於強勁長期結構性利多之產業的主題性加碼配置。目前住宅不動產貸款約占 ARI 投資組合的 25%，為 ARI 最大的物業類型集中度。

Importantly, approximately 2/3 of the residential loans in ARI's portfolio have originated over the past 24 months, benefiting from a valuation reset and enhanced credit quality. In Europe, which represents approximately 50% of ARI's portfolio and 18% of originations year to date, the market is gaining momentum, benefiting from recent interest rate cuts that have re-energized acquisition activity. Our local team is capitalizing on this resurgence with a healthy pipeline across property types, and we continue to believe ARI's international diversification remains a strategic advantage.

重要的是，ARI 投資組合中的住宅貸款約有 2/3 係於過去 24 個月內承作，受惠於估值重置與信用品質提升。在歐洲方面，其約占 ARI 投資組合的 50%，且年初至今承作量占比為 18%；在近期降息帶動下，市場動能正在增強，並重新活絡收購活動。我們的在地團隊正把握此一復甦趨勢，在各類物業上均有健康的案源管線；我們仍相信 ARI 的國際多元化配置是策略性優勢。

Turning now to the loan portfolio and a progress update on our focus assets. At quarter end, the carrying value of ARI's portfolio had increased 12% from the prior quarter and was comprised of 53 loans totaling approximately $8.6 billion. No additional asset-specific CECL allowances were recorded during the quarter. We saw continued sales momentum at 111 West 57th Street with nine units closed during the quarter, generating $170 million in proceeds, $141 million of which reduced ARI's basis following the full repayment of the senior loan in April.

接下來談貸款投資組合，以及我們重點資產的進度更新。截至季末，ARI 投資組合的帳面價值較前一季增加 12%，由 53 筆貸款構成，總額約 86 億美元。本季未新增任何特定資產的 CECL 備抵。111 West 57th Street 的銷售動能持續，本季完成交割 9 個單位，產生 1.70 億美元收入，其中 1.41 億美元在 4 月資深貸款全數償還後用以降低 ARI 的成本基礎。

ARI is now senior in the capital stack, and all future proceeds will go directly to repaying its exposure. At the Brook, ARI's multifamily development in Brooklyn, the leasing office opened in June and tenant move-ins began this month, marking an important milestone in the asset's progress.

ARI 現已位於資本結構中的資深順位，未來所有收入將直接用於償還其曝險。在布魯克林的 The Brook（ARI 的多戶住宅開發案）方面，租賃辦公室已於 6 月開放，本月開始有租戶入住，這是該資產進展的重要里程碑。

Lastly, in Cincinnati, the marketing process for Liberty Center has commenced as we pursue exiting the asset. We remain intensely focused on executing our value maximization plans for our focus assets, which is integral to our strategy of converting underperforming capital into higher-yielding reinvestment opportunities. We expect this capital rotation will continue to have a positive impact on ARI's earnings in the latter half of 2025 and throughout 2026. Before I turn the call over to Anastasia, I want to highlight the strong execution we had in connection with our -- with the refinancing of our outstanding Term Loan B facilities in the past quarter.

最後，在辛辛那提，Liberty Center 的行銷出售流程已啟動，我們正尋求退出該資產。我們仍高度專注於執行重點資產的價值極大化計畫，這是我們將表現不佳的資本轉換為更高收益再投資機會之策略的關鍵一環。我們預期此一資本輪動將在 2025 年下半年及整個 2026 年持續對 ARI 的盈餘帶來正面影響。在我把電話會議交給 Anastasia 之前，我想強調我們在過去一季就我們——就我們現有 Term Loan B 融資工具的再融資所展現的強勁執行力。

In June, we completed a new five-year floating rate $750 million Term Loan B, which repaid our existing two Term Loan Bs, which had pending maturities in 2026 and 2028, respectively. The new loan bears interest at SOFR plus 3.25% and enabled ARI to term out liabilities at attractive pricing with a well-diversified roster of high-quality investors, highlighting the market's confidence in ARI. Following the refinancing, ARI's next corporate debt maturity is now not until June of 2029.

6 月，我們完成一筆新的五年期浮動利率 7.50 億美元 Term Loan B，用以償還我們現有的兩筆 Term Loan B，該兩筆貸款分別於 2026 年與 2028 年到期。新貸款利率為 SOFR 加 3.25%，使 ARI 得以在具吸引力的定價下延長負債期限，且投資人結構多元、品質優良，凸顯市場對 ARI 的信心。完成再融資後，ARI 下一筆公司層級債務到期日已延後至 2029 年 6 月。

With that, I will turn the call over to Anastasia to review ARI's financial results for the year.

接下來，我把電話會議交給 Anastasia，請她回顧 ARI 本年度的財務結果。

Thank you, Stuart, and good morning, everyone. ARI reported distributable earnings of $36 million or $0.26 per share of common stock for the first quarter with GAAP net income of $18 million or $0.12 per diluted share of common stock. Distributable earnings for the second quarter of 2025 represent an 8% increase over the first quarter and provide dividend coverage of about 1.04 times. Our loan portfolio ended the quarter with a carrying value of $8.6 billion, up from $7.7 billion at the end of Q1. The weighted average unlevered yield of our portfolio was 7.8%.

謝謝你，Stuart，各位早安。ARI 第一季可分配盈餘為 3,600 萬美元，或每股普通股 0.26 美元；GAAP 淨利為 1,800 萬美元，或每股稀釋普通股 0.12 美元。2025 年第二季可分配盈餘較第一季增加 8%，股利覆蓋倍數約為 1.04 倍。我們的貸款投資組合於季末帳面價值為 86 億美元，高於第一季末的 77 億美元。投資組合的加權平均未槓桿化收益率為 7.8%。

As Stuart mentioned, we had a strong quarter of loan originations totaling $1.4 billion in commitments. We also completed an additional $394 million in add-on fundings for previously closed loans. Year to date, ARI has originated over $2 billion of new commitments and completed a total of $467 million of add-on fundings for previously closed loans. Repayments and sales totaled $631 million during the quarter. Importantly, with the continued redeployment, 41% of our loan portfolio as of quarter end was originated post the 2022 rapid rise in interest rates and subsequent reset in property valuations.

如 Stuart 所提及，我們本季放款承作表現強勁，承諾金額合計 14 億美元。我們亦就先前已完成交割的貸款，額外完成 3.94 億美元的追加撥款。年初至今，ARI 已承作超過 20 億美元的新承諾額，並就先前已完成交割的貸款合計完成 4.67 億美元的追加撥款。本季還款與出售合計 6.31 億美元。重要的是，隨著持續重新部署資金，截至季末，我們貸款投資組合中有 41% 係於 2022 年利率快速上升及其後物業估值重置之後承作。

With respect to risk ratings, the weighted average risk rating of the portfolio at quarter end was 3.0, unchanged from the previous quarter end. There were no asset-specific CECL allowances recorded during the quarter, and no downgrades in risk ratings across the portfolio.

就風險評等而言，季末投資組合的加權平均風險評等為 3.0，與前一季季末持平。本季未針對任何特定資產計提 CECL 備抵，且整體投資組合的風險評等亦無任何下調。

Our general CECL allowance increased this quarter by $3.1 million, reflecting growth of the loan portfolio from the previous quarter end. Total CECL allowance and percentage points of the loan portfolio amortized cost basis is down slightly quarter over quarter from 475 basis points to 429 basis points. Subsequent to quarter end, Apollo and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts reached a settlement agreement in which the Commonwealth agreed to pay us and other Apollo co-lenders an additional $44 million as compensation for the previous taking of the hospital by eminent domain. ARI's share of these proceeds is approximately $18 million. The payment is expected to be received before the end of August, and the lawsuit will be dismissed with prejudice with all related claims released.

本季我們的一般性 CECL 備抵增加 310 萬美元，反映貸款投資組合較前一季季末成長。CECL 備抵總額占貸款投資組合攤銷後成本基礎的比率，較上季略降，從 475 個基點降至 429 個基點。季末之後，Apollo 與麻薩諸塞州政府達成和解協議，州政府同意支付我們及其他 Apollo 共同放款人額外 4,400 萬美元，以補償先前該醫院遭以徵收（eminent domain）方式取得所致之損失。ARI 可分得之款項約為 1,800 萬美元。預期該筆款項將於 8 月底前收取，且訴訟將以不得再行起訴（with prejudice）方式撤回，並解除所有相關請求權。

These proceeds will result in book value per share pickup for ARI in the following quarter and will be recycled into new loan originations, leading to further upside to earnings.

這些款項將使 ARI 在下一季的每股帳面價值有所提升，並將再投入新的貸款承作，進一步帶動盈餘上行空間。

Moving on to the right-hand side of the balance sheet. During the quarter, we were very active with optimizing our liabilities. In addition to the refinancing of our term loans that Stuart mentioned, we closed three new secured credit facilities and upsized an existing credit facility, which provided an additional $1.4 billion of aggregate borrowing capacity. Liquidity in the secured borrowing market continues to be plentiful as lenders get favorable capital treatment for these facilities and in many instances, prefer them over directly lending to properties. The company ended the quarter with $208 million of total liquidity comprised of cash on hand, committed undrawn credit capacity on existing facilities, and loan proceeds held by the servicer.

接著談資產負債表右側。本季我們在負債最佳化方面非常積極。除 Stuart 提到的定期貸款再融資外，我們完成三項新的擔保信貸融資，並擴增一項既有信貸融資，合計新增 14 億美元的總借款額度。擔保借款市場的流動性仍然充裕，因放款人對此類融資可獲得有利的資本待遇，且在許多情況下，相較於直接對不動產放款，更偏好此類融資。公司季末總流動性為 2.08 億美元，包含手上現金、既有融資項下已承諾但未動用的額度，以及由服務機構持有的貸款款項。

Our book value per share, excluding general CECL allowance and depreciation, was $12.59, a slight decrease from last quarter.

我們的每股帳面價值（不含一般性 CECL 備抵與折舊）為 12.59 美元，較上季小幅下降。

With that, I would like to turn the call back to Stuart Rothstein.

接下來，我想把電話會議交回給 Stuart Rothstein。

Thank you, Anastasia. Before we turn the call back to the operator to start with questions, I just want to highlight that from those of us at Apollo, our thoughts and prayers are with our friends and colleagues at Blackstone after the senseless tragedy that took place there this past Monday. We have heavy hearts, and I'm sure many of you on the call do as well.

謝謝你，Anastasia。在我們把電話會議交回接線員開始提問之前，我只想強調：我們 Apollo 的同仁對 Blackstone 的朋友與同事，針對本週一在那裡發生的無謂悲劇，致上我們的思念與祈禱。我們心情沉重，我相信在電話會議上的許多人也是如此。

With that, I will turn the call over to the operator.

那麼，我把電話會議交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Harter, UBS.

(接線員指示) UBS 的 Doug Harter。

Just hoping we could get a little bit into more of the theme of being able to recycle your capital. It seems like 111 57th is progressing. How do you think about the Brook now that you're starting to lease? What could be a timeframe of, A, I guess, starting to get some cash flow from that asset and, B, being able to move on from that and move it into targeted assets?

希望我們能更深入談談資本回收再運用的主題。看起來 111 57th 正在推進。你們如何看待 Brook，現在開始出租了？就時間表而言，A，我想是何時能開始從該資產產生一些現金流；以及 B，何時能從該案抽身並把資本轉投入目標資產？

Yeah. Look, I think at a high level, and I'll just sort of refresh for everybody's memory, the Brook is roughly 500-plus units, of which 70% are market rate, 30% are affordable. We have started leasing on the market rate side of things as the affordable needs to go through a process vis-a-vis a lottery and qualifications, et cetera. I think the hope for us, Doug, is that we make meaningful progress on the leasing side between now and the end of the year.

是的。我先從高層次說明，也順便幫大家回顧一下：Brook 約有 500 多個單位，其中 70% 為市價租賃、30% 為可負擔住宅。我們已開始進行市價單位的出租；可負擔住宅部分則需要依規定走一套流程，例如抽籤與資格審查等。Doug，我們的期望是在現在到年底之間，在出租進度上取得實質進展。

I think at this point in just the first month, we're sort of approaching 15% leased on the market rate side of things. I think with progress made on the leasing side, the asset will turn modestly cash flow positive in the early part of next year. And then the real capital event is whether we decide to bring in a partner or sell the asset outright sometime probably between first and second quarter of next year. And as a reminder, it's roughly just shy of $300 million worth of capital today that is effectively earning 0 from our perspective.

就目前第一個月而言，市價單位的出租率大約接近 15%。隨著出租進度推進，該資產預計在明年初轉為小幅正現金流。而真正的資本事件在於：我們是否決定引入合作夥伴，或在明年第一季到第二季之間某個時間點直接出售該資產。提醒一下，目前約略接近 3 億美元的資本，從我們的角度來看基本上是賺取 0 的報酬。

Got it. And in your answer, when you kind of said the decision of selling it outright or bringing in a partner, is it a consideration to kind of retain the asset and have kind of a long-duration cash flows? Or is the ultimate plan to monetize and move on?

了解。在你的回答中，你提到可能直接出售或引入合作夥伴的決策；那是否也會考慮保留該資產，以取得較長期間的現金流？還是最終計畫就是變現後往前走？

The ultimate plan is to monetize and move on. I think the halfway step of bringing in a partner would only be relevant to the extent we thought the market fully wasn't providing value to us while we continue to lease up and stabilize.

最終計畫是變現後往前走。引入合作夥伴這個中間步驟，只有在我們認為市場在我們持續出租、使其穩定化的過程中，尚未能充分反映其價值時，才會有意義。

Jade Rahmani, KBW.

KBW 的 Jade Rahmani。

A follow-on to Doug's question on the Brook. I believe that there's some land parcels that are also either owned and controlled or there's some optionality around that. Can you give some color and if this could be material upside for shareholders?

延續 Doug 對 Brook 的問題。我相信還有一些土地地塊是你們擁有並控制的，或是對此存在某些選擇權。你能否補充一些細節，以及這是否可能為股東帶來顯著上行空間？

Yes. There is one small parcel that we refer to for now as the Western parcel, if I've got my geography correctly. And in between the Brook and the Western parcel, there's actually a building that we don't know in between us that sits on two parcels. We are in discussion too early to know what will happen with the ownership of those parcels, Jade, around either acquiring air rights or the assets outright that we could potentially greatly increase the density of what can be done on the Western parcel. And if we're able to figure it out, I think there's definitely upside to the ARI shareholders, but I would say too early to predict the likelihood of that right now, but discussions are ongoing.

可以。有一小塊地，我們暫時稱之為西側地塊（Western parcel），如果我對方位理解無誤的話。而在 Brook 與西側地塊之間，實際上有一棟我們不擁有的建物，該建物坐落在兩個地塊上。Jade，我們目前仍在討論階段，還太早無法確定這些地塊的權屬最終會如何處理；可能的方向包括取得空中權（air rights）或直接收購資產本身，從而有機會大幅提高西側地塊可開發的密度。若能釐清並落實，我認為 ARI 股東確實有上行空間；但就目前而言仍太早預測其成案機率，不過討論仍在進行中。

On 111 West 57th, where do you expect the basis amortized cost in the loan to be at year-end or maybe early, say, 1Q of next year?

關於 111 West 57th，你們預期該筆貸款的基礎（basis）攤銷後成本在年底，或明年第一季初，大概會到什麼水準？

Look, I think it's a bit of a timing question as you think about when units get sold. At this point, there's 11 units left. So there's definitely activity going on with various potential buyers. Our net basis today from a carrying value perspective is about $270 million. We think we will chip away at that between now and the end of the year, given dialogue taking place, but I don't want to sort of give you a specific number per se.

我認為這在某種程度上取決於單位出售的時間點。目前還剩 11 個單位。因此，確實有多位潛在買方在洽談中。以帳面列示價值的角度來看，我們目前的淨基礎約為 2.70 億美元。考量目前的對話進展，我們認為從現在到年底會逐步降低該數字，但我不想給出一個特定的數字。

Okay. And one overarching question has to do with the capital structure and leverage of the company. Your leverage is around 4 times today, but that includes significant non-earning assets. So do you plan to maintain leverage at the current level and therefore, convert these assets into earning assets and drive dividend growth? Or in that process, do you anticipate reducing leverage?

好的。有一個更宏觀的問題，關於公司的資本結構與槓桿。你們目前的槓桿大約是 4 倍，但其中包含相當多的非生息資產。所以你們是否計畫將槓桿維持在目前水準，並因此把這些資產轉為生息資產、推動股利成長？或者在這個過程中，你們是否預期會降低槓桿？

I think, look, I think where we're running leverage is in the ballpark of where we'd expect to run it in the future. Keep in mind that even though the Brook is a non-earning asset, it does have a construction loan against it. So that is an asset that we can get capital back and put to work pretty meaningfully without dramatically changing leverage levels. But I think our view is there's enough capacity in the company to get back the capital we get back and redeploy it all at leveraged ROEs that are very consistent with where we've been deploying capital to date and drive, as you've seen various estimates from us of meaningful earnings growth, somewhere in the neighborhood of 30% to 40% on where we are, if you assume it all comes back and we're able to redeploy it effectively.

我想，嗯，我認為我們目前運行的槓桿大致就在我們未來預期會維持的區間。請記住，即使 Brook 是非生息資產，它也有一筆建築貸款作為對應融資。因此，這是一項我們可以把資本收回並相當有意義地重新投入運用的資產，而不需要大幅改變槓桿水準。但我認為我們的看法是，公司有足夠的容量，能把收回的資本再部署，以帶槓桿的 ROE 投入，且與我們迄今部署資本的方式非常一致；並且如你所見我們給出的各種估算，若假設資本都能收回且我們能有效再部署，將可帶動相當可觀的獲利成長，大約在目前水準的 30% 到 40% 左右。

Harsh Hemnani, Green Street.

Harsh Hemnani，Green Street。

Maybe one on portfolio size, right? Of course, it's grown. Can we expect it to continue to grow? How are you thinking through that in the near to medium term?

也許問一個關於投資組合規模的問題，對吧？當然，它已經成長了。我們是否可以預期它會持續成長？你們在短中期是如何思考這件事的？

Look, we never predict the actual size. But I think if you assume we are able to continue to work on focus assets, pull capital back, which effectively is equity and then redeploy the equity at three to four turns of leverage, you're going to see continued growth in the portfolio size, right? Just for reference, at one point, with effectively the same capital base, the portfolio was north of $10 billion. I'm not saying that's the number, but for each dollar of capital I'm able to bring back from a focus asset or under-earning asset, I could put it into a new loan that headline-wise will be three to four turns levered when we get it done.

你看，我們從不預測實際規模。但我認為，如果你假設我們能持續處理重點資產、把資本收回（本質上是股權），然後再以 3 到 4 轉的槓桿把這些股權重新部署，那你會看到投資組合規模持續成長，對吧？僅供參考，曾經在幾乎相同的資本基礎下，投資組合規模超過 100 億美元。我不是說那就是目標數字，但對於我能從一項重點資產或低於應有收益的資產中收回的每 1 美元資本，我都可以把它投入到一筆新貸款中；從表面上看，等我們完成後，該貸款會是 3 到 4 轉槓桿。

Got it. That's helpful. And so then that sort of brings up the question of maybe funding some of this growth, and you touched on it a little bit. But it seems like a lot of the equity that is coming back to your point, is already somewhat levered even from the REO assets. So is it probably fair to assume that incremental growth from here will continue to be driven by leverage?

了解。這很有幫助。那這也帶出一個問題：也許要如何為部分成長提供資金，你剛才也稍微提到。但看起來，依你所說，回收回來的很多股權，即使來自 REO 資產，也已經在某種程度上帶槓桿。所以，是否可以合理地假設，從現在起的增量成長仍將主要由槓桿所驅動？

Look, I think it will be -- not all of the assets are levered today. Certainly, 111 West 57th is not levered today. Liberty Center is underlevered relative to what a loan asset would be. So I think it will be both a redeployment of equity and then sort of typical leverage against that equity relative to what we do when we even get repayments back.

你看，我認為會是——並非所有資產今天都有槓桿。當然，111 West 57th 目前沒有槓桿。Liberty Center 的槓桿相對於一項貸款資產應有的水準而言偏低。所以我認為會同時包含股權的再部署，以及針對該股權配置我們通常會做的槓桿；這也類似於我們收到還款回收時的做法。

John Nickodemus, BTIG.

John Nickodemus，BTIG。

We've seen more activity in the CRE transaction market in recent weeks, something I'm sure your team has been pleased to see. What are your expectations for the commercial real estate transaction market through the end of this year? And how is that affecting your plans for ARI looking forward?

最近幾週我們看到 CRE 交易市場更活躍，我相信你們團隊也很樂見。你們對今年年底前的商用不動產交易市場有何預期？這又將如何影響你們對 ARI 未來的規劃？

I mean, look, we agree with the premise of your question, whereas activity has definitely picked up, and we are seeing it both on the credit side of our real estate business as well as the areas where we're active on the equity side of our real estate business. Good news is there's more capital, more deal flow, more things to look at, like the challenge like anything is there's no dearth of capital in the world right now. I think a lot of confidence in our team, both here in the US and in Europe to continuing to find things that work for ARI and what ARI is attempting to achieve from a levered ROE perspective.

我的意思是，你看，我們同意你問題的前提：活動確實明顯回升；我們在不動產業務的信貸端，以及我們在不動產業務股權端活躍的領域，都看到了這點。好消息是有更多資本、更多案源、更多可以看的標的；但挑戰也一樣——現在全球並不缺資本。我對我們團隊很有信心，無論是在美國還是在歐洲，都能持續找到適合 ARI、並符合 ARI 從帶槓桿 ROE 角度所要達成目標的機會。

I think we are confident that the market will continue to offer us enough to look at that we will be able to find things that fit nicely with both return as well as other considerations for ARI, whether it be geography, property type, et cetera. But we expect the market to be pretty robust between now and the end of the year, just given what we're seeing in terms of deal flow pipeline and level of activity to date.

我認為我們有信心，市場將持續提供足夠多的標的讓我們評估，使我們能找到在報酬以及 ARI 的其他考量（例如地理區域、物業類型等）上都很契合的機會。但就我們目前看到的案源管線與迄今的活躍程度而言，我們預期從現在到年底市場會相當強勁。

Great. Really appreciate that Stuart. And the other one for me. We've seen some of your peers move to extend the duration of their portfolios, whether that's through investing in triple net real estate or adding securities to their portfolio. I was just curious if that's something that your team at ARI is monitoring or looking to add in the near to medium term.

很好。非常感謝，Stuart。我還有另一個問題。我們看到你們一些同業開始延長其投資組合的存續期間，不論是透過投資三網（triple net）不動產，或是在投資組合中增加證券。我只是好奇，這是否是 ARI 團隊在監測或考慮在短中期納入的方向。

Yes. I would describe it as best as monitoring or it's a constant source of dialogue. As a firm, we've got capabilities, both in the net lease space and in the securities side. I think this is now a 16-year debate between Scott and I. I think the challenge we always face is if we are going to do something that "broadens the strategy. I think there's a desire to do it in a scale and size such that it's meaningful and that we're not just talking about sort of a one-off deal.

是的。我會把它描述為「監測中」，或者說這是一個持續的討論來源。以公司層面來看，我們在淨租賃領域以及證券端都具備能力。我想這已經是我和 Scott 之間長達 16 年的辯論了。我認為我們一直面臨的挑戰是：如果我們要做一些「擴大策略範圍」的事情，我們希望能以具有規模與體量的方式來做，讓它是有意義的，而不是只是在談某種一次性的單筆交易。

Obviously, life would be easier in some respects if you could extend duration, but it needs to make sense from a credit and return perspective. So on the radar screen, given existing capabilities inside of Apollo, definitely something that we talk about episodically. But I would say sitting here today, no meaningful shift in strategy expected.

顯然，在某些方面，如果能延長存續期間，生活會更容易一些，但它必須在信用與報酬的角度都說得通。因此，考量到 Apollo 內部既有能力，這確實在我們的雷達上，也會不時拿出來討論。但我會說，就今天此刻而言，預期不會有任何重大的策略轉變。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

Rick Shane，JPMorgan。

I apologize if I -- this is redundant. We're bouncing around between a lot of calls this morning. From a detailed perspective, the way we look at the provision expense this quarter is it appears to be entirely growth driven related to the increase in earning assets, and it looks like it's probably the general reserve was probably put on in the mid-30s to low 40s in terms of basis points on a reserve rate. Is that correct? And is that the way we should be modeling any further expansion of earning assets in terms of growth going forward?

如果我——這有點重複的話我先道歉。我們今天早上在很多通話之間來回切換。從更細節的角度看，我們對本季提列備抵費用（provision expense）的解讀是：它看起來完全是由成長所驅動、與生息資產增加相關；而且看起來一般性準備（general reserve）的提列，準備率大概落在 30 多個基點到 40 出頭個基點之間。這樣理解正確嗎？而且在未來生息資產進一步擴張、帶動成長時，我們是否也應該用同樣方式來建模？

Rick, this is Anastasia. Yes, this is correct. So you're correct in saying that the growth in general CECL quarter-over-quarter is largely driven by the growth in the loan portfolio.

Rick，我是Anastasia。是的，這是正確的。所以你說得沒錯，整體CECL季對季的成長，主要是由貸款組合的成長所帶動。

And no changes to your macro assumptions?

那你們的總體宏觀假設沒有任何變動嗎？

No.

沒有。

Great. Okay. And then just a broader question, which is a theme we're exploring with everybody this quarter. The market is -- the commercial real estate market is kind of at cross currents right now, and it's probably -- there are geographies, there are loan types that are improving. There are some that remain challenged.

很好。好的。接著是一個更廣泛的問題，這也是我們本季和每位公司都在探討的主題。市場——商用不動產市場目前有點處在相互拉扯的交叉力量之中，而且可能——有些地區、有些貸款類型正在改善。也有一些仍然面臨挑戰。

I'm curious as you sort of approach the same cross currents of moving from being purely defensive to putting a foot forward, how you're looking at those opportunities where you're going to continue to be defensive? Are there categories that have been out of favor you want to wade back into? Where do you see the best opportunities?

我很好奇，當你們面對同樣這種交叉力量、從純粹防守轉向開始更積極一些時，你們如何看待那些機會、以及哪些地方你們會繼續保持防守？是否有一些先前不受青睞的類別，你們想再重新涉入？你們認為最佳機會在哪裡？

Yes, it's Scott. Look, I'll say, look, we continue to be very constructive on all forms of housing. And so for us, that would include senior housing private pay, where we've been active in the UK and also have a few deals in the US we're working on.

是的，我是Scott。你看，我會說，我們仍然對各種形式的住宅都非常正向。對我們而言，這包括自費型的高齡住宅（senior housing private pay），我們在英國一直很活躍，在美國也有幾筆交易正在推進。

Student housing, hotels have kind of always been a part of our portfolio, but there's times we've been more active than not. And I think this is a time that certain types of hotels we are finding interesting. On the office front, certainly, transaction activity has picked up, and we're starting to see stuff. I think for now, not really looking to do that in ARI. We're doing that elsewhere in the platform.

學生住宅、飯店一直都是我們投資組合的一部分，只是有些時候我們會更積極、有些時候則不那麼積極。而我認為現在是我們覺得某些類型的飯店相當有意思的時點。至於辦公室方面，交易活動確實已經回升，我們也開始看到一些案子。但我想就目前而言，我們不太會在ARI做這類交易。我們會在平台的其他地方做。

I think there still continues to be a very large focus on the percentage of office in our portfolio. And based on our long-term lease deal in London, it doesn't seem that people differentiate different quality of office deals.

我認為市場仍然非常關注我們投資組合中辦公室資產的占比。而基於我們在倫敦那筆長期租約的交易，看起來市場並不會去區分不同品質的辦公室交易。

So I think for that, we'll probably not be -- we won't be seeing ARI doing office deals. And then look, we continue to find deals in both UK, Europe, and US of interest. So it's really just continuing -- continue what we've been doing. I don't see us really doing ground-up development ex long-term lease data centers.

所以我想在這方面，我們大概不會——我們不會看到ARI去做辦公室交易。另外，你看，我們在英國、歐洲以及美國仍然持續找到一些有興趣的交易。所以基本上就是持續——延續我們一直在做的事情。我不認為我們會去做從零開始的開發案（ground-up development），長期租約的資料中心除外。

I think the construction -- there are interesting deals, but it's challenging to leverage and also put the money out, whereas I think some of the hyperscale deals that we've done are interesting, and we're able to work with our bank partners and put on accretive financing. So I think that's the only area where you'll see us doing construction in ARI.

我認為施工——確實有一些有趣的案子，但在槓桿操作以及資金投放上都很具挑戰；相較之下，我們做過的一些超大規模（hyperscale）交易很有意思，而且我們能與銀行夥伴合作，安排具增益性的融資。所以我想這是你們會看到我們在ARI進行施工/建設的唯一領域。

Thank you for the insights and really sort of swinging that pitch for us, we appreciate it.

謝謝你的見解，也謝謝你替我們把這球打得很漂亮，我們很感激。

Jade Rahmani, KBW.

Jade Rahmani，KBW。

Would prevent the dividend from being increased? And do you also expect any change to the long-standing policy -- dividend policy of the company to generally pay out the lion's share of earnings as dividend?

有哪些因素會阻止股利被提高？另外，你們是否也預期公司長期以來的政策——股利政策（通常將大部分盈餘以股利形式配發）會有任何改變？

I mean, look, the short answer, Jade, is there's nothing material from an NOL perspective that would give us tax protection to rising earnings. And I think the short answer to the second part of your question is that, yes, the expectation is the goal continues to be to give our investors as much of earnings as possible in the form of a dividend. Like always, we'll look at things on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

我的意思是，你看，Jade，簡短的回答是：從NOL（淨營運虧損結轉扣抵）的角度來看，沒有任何重大的項目能在盈餘上升時提供稅務上的保護。而對你問題第二部分的簡短回答是：是的，我們的目標仍然是盡可能以股利的形式，把更多盈餘回饋給投資人。一如既往，我們會以每季為單位來檢視。

We'll also try and take a somewhat forward-looking approach as I think our desire is to avoid paying special dividends, try and keep things somewhat stable from a quarterly perspective, not lose a lot of sleep if things bounce around $0.01 or $0.02 higher or $0.01 or $0.02 low in any given quarter. And we'll always review policy with the Board on a quarterly basis. So I think your question is a good one. And I think we expect to handle things going forward the way we've handled them in the past.

我們也會嘗試採取較具前瞻性的做法，因為我想我們希望避免發放特別股利，並盡量讓每季的配發維持相對穩定；如果某一季上下波動0.01或0.02美元，或高0.01或0.02美元、或低0.01或0.02美元，我們也不會太過擔心。我們也會每季與董事會一起檢視政策。所以我認為你的問題問得很好。而我想我們預期未來會以過去一貫的方式來處理。

And lastly, I wanted to ask about seniors housing. It seems to be an area of focus of the company. And is there a broader thesis you can talk to in that space? I know the demographic trends are particularly favorable in that asset class.

最後，我想問一下高齡住宅（seniors housing）。這似乎是公司聚焦的領域。在那個領域，你們是否有更宏觀的投資論點可以分享？我知道就該資產類別而言，人口結構趨勢特別有利。

Yes. No, I think that's exactly it. I mean I think certainly not every market, but most markets and certainly in the US and UK, I think, have a supply-demand imbalance. Clearly, the demographic, as you said, continues to grow. We're very much focused on private pay. So these are people who can afford and are choosing to live here.

是的。不，我想你說的正是重點。我的意思是，當然不是每個市場都如此，但多數市場——尤其在美國與英國——我認為都存在供需失衡。顯然，如你所說，人口結構仍在持續成長。我們非常聚焦在自費型（private pay）。也就是這些人有能力負擔，並且選擇住在這裡。

I would say it's also from an acuity basis, much more focused on the independent living, maybe a little bit of assisted living, but really not -- this is not skilled nursing or memory care. These are just older people who want to enjoy their golden years, if you will, and be with other people. And we're doing it generally more newer developed properties and stuff that have all the amenities and things. So again, we think it's an extension of our housing thesis.

我會說，從照護需求程度（acuity）的角度來看，我們更聚焦在獨立生活（independent living），可能少量是輔助生活（assisted living），但真的不是——這不是專業護理（skilled nursing）或失智照護（memory care）。這些只是年長者，如果你願意這麼說，他們想享受黃金歲月，並與其他人相處。而我們通常會做較新開發的物件，以及具備各種設施與配套的案子。所以再一次，我們認為這是我們住宅投資論點的延伸。

I would now like to turn the call back over to Stuart Rothstein for any closing remarks.

我現在想把電話交回給Stuart Rothstein，請他做結語。

Thank you all for participating today. As always, myself, Anastasia, Hilary are available if people have follow-up questions after the call. And I hope everybody enjoys the rest of the summer. Thank you.

感謝各位今天的參與。一如往常，如果大家在會後有後續問題，我本人、Anastasia、Hilary都可以聯繫。也希望大家享受接下來的夏日時光。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes the conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。