Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

I'd like to remind everyone that today's call and webcast are being recorded. Please note that they are the property of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc and that any unauthorized broadcast in any form is strictly prohibited. Information about the audio replay of this call is available in our earnings press release.

我想提醒大家，今天的電話和網路直播都是錄音的。請注意，它們是阿波羅商業房地產金融公司的財產，嚴禁以任何形式進行未經授權的廣播。有關本次電話會議音訊重播的信息，請參閱我們的收益新聞稿。

I'd also like to call your attention to the customary Safe Harbor disclosure in our press release regarding forward-looking statements. Today's conference call and webcast may include forward-looking statements and projections, and we ask that you refer to our most recent filings with the SEC for important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements and projections.

我還想提請您注意我們新聞稿中有關前瞻性陳述的慣例安全港披露。今天的電話會議和網路廣播可能包括前瞻性陳述和預測，我們要求您參考我們向 SEC 提交的最新文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與這些陳述和預測有重大差異的重要因素。

In addition, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call, which management believes are relevant to assessing the company's financial performance. These measures are reconciled to the GAAP figures in our earnings presentation, which is available in the stockholders section of our website. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements or projections unless required by law. To obtain copies of our latest SEC filings, please visit our website, www.apollocref.com or call us at 212 515 3200.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上討論某些非公認會計原則措施，管理階層認為這些措施與評估公司的財務表現有關。這些指標與我們收益報告中的 GAAP 數據進行了核對，收益報告可在我們網站的股東部分查看。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性聲明或預測的義務。如需我們最新的 SEC 文件副本，請造訪我們的網站 www.apollocref.com 或致電 212 515 3200。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to the company's Chief Executive Officer, Stuart Rothstein.

現在，我想將電話轉給公司執行長 Stuart Rothstein。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, and thank you to those of us for joining us on the Apollo commercial real estate finance second quarter 2024 earnings call. As usual, I am joined today by Scott Weiner, our Chief Investment Officer; and Anastasia Mironova, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝營運商，早安，也感謝我們這些人參加 Apollo 商業房地產金融 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。和往常一樣，今天我們的首席投資長 Scott Weiner 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的財務長阿納斯塔西婭·米諾諾娃 (Anastasia Mironova)。

Before I speak about ARI's second quarter performance and portfolio updates, I would like to provide an update on the subsequent event disclosure in the 10-Q filed yesterday in March of 2022 ARI and other Apollo managed entities co-originated a 55% loan to cost first mortgage loan secured by eight hospitals in Massachusetts. At origination ARI's portion of the loan totaled $379 million.

在談論ARI 第二季度業績和投資組合更新之前，我想先介紹一下2022 年3 月昨天提交的10-Q 報告中後續事件披露的最新情況，ARI 和其他阿波羅管理實體共同發起了一筆55 % 的貸款由馬薩諸塞州八家醫院擔保的第一筆抵押貸款。最初，ARI 承擔的貸款總額為 3.79 億美元。

The loan was made in connection with the capitalization of the joint venture between two parties to own the hospitals that joint venture then leased the properties to Steward Health Care, who also served as the operator of the hospital. Apollo did not lead into steward and does not have any involvement in steward's operations of the hospitals or performance under the lease structure and covenants in the loan have provided for cash collateral and amortization.

該貸款與兩方合資企業的資本化有關，該合資企業擁有醫院，然後將這些財產出租給 Steward Health Care，後者也是該醫院的營運商。Apollo 沒有參與 Steward 的業務，也沒有參與 Steward 醫院的營運或租賃結構下的履行，且貸款契約規定了現金抵押品和攤銷。

Since origination that represents approximately 11% of the original loan balance and ARI.'s amortized cost was $342 million as of June 30, 2024. As of today, the loan remains current on all contractual interest payments. Steward filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May 2024. During the second quarter, the loans risk rated was downgraded from three to four. Subsequent to quarter end. Bids were received in the bid process and negotiations are continuing to evolve with multiple constituencies.

自發放以來，該貸款約佔原始貸款餘額的 11%，截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，ARI. 的攤餘成本為 3.42 億美元。截至今天，該貸款仍​​按合約規定的利息支付。Steward 於 2024 年 5 月根據美國破產法第 11 章申請破產。第二季度，貸款風險評級從三級下調至四級。季度末後。投標過程中已收到投標書，並且與多個選區的談判正在繼續進行。

While there is still a high degree of uncertainty, based upon the information available as of the 10-Q filing and taking into account stewards bankruptcy court documents made publicly available on July 30. We currently anticipate recording a specific CECL allowance in the subsequent quarter, which we currently estimate to be approximately $90 million. The actual specific CECL allowance may differ materially based on continuing development.

儘管仍存在高度不確定性，但根據截至 10-Q 備案的可用資訊並考慮到管理人破產法庭 7 月 30 日公開的文件。我們目前預計在下個季度記錄具體的 CECL 津貼，目前估計約為 9,000 萬美元。實際的具體 CECL 津貼可能會因持續開發而有重大差異。

Shifting to second quarter performance air, I continue to receive a healthy level of loan repayments, which totaled $759 million for the first six months of the year. During the quarter, ARI redeployed approximately $505 million of capital into four new transactions. And following quarter end, we completed two additional transactions in the United Kingdom totaling approximately $270 million. All of these new vintage transactions have lower attachment points and wider spreads than the legacy loans in our portfolio and are structured to enable ARI to earn attractive levered ROEs on newly deployed capital.

轉向第二季的業績表現，我繼續收到健康水準的貸款償還，今年前六個月的貸款償還總額為 7.59 億美元。本季度，ARI 將約 5.05 億美元的資本重新部署到四項新交易中。季度末後，我們在英國完成了另外兩筆交易，總金額約 2.7 億美元。所有這些新的老式交易都比我們投資組合中的傳統貸款具有更低的附著點和更大的利差，並且其結構使 ARI 能夠在新部署的資本上賺取有吸引力的槓桿 ROE。

As we continue to receive capital back, we benefit from the broader pipeline of Apollo's real estate credit platform, which continues to gain market share and fill the void in the market as traditional capital sources retrench. Turning now to the portfolio, at quarter end ARI's portfolio was comprised of 50 loans totaling $8.3 billion during the quarter. There was significant sales momentum at one 111 West 57 Street with six units closing totaling approximately $74 million of gross proceeds, which were used to pay down the senior mortgage that's is currently held by a third party.

隨著我們繼續收回資金，我們受益於阿波羅房地產信貸平台更廣泛的管道，該平台繼續獲得市場份額並填補傳統資本來源緊縮時的市場空白。現在轉向投資組合，截至季末，ARI 的投資組合由本季總計 83 億美元的 50 筆貸款組成。西 57 街 111 號一號樓的銷售勢頭強勁，六套公寓成交，總收益約為 7,400 萬美元，用於償還目前由第三方持有的高級抵押貸款。

Notably, subsequent to quarter end, an additional two units went into contract, including one of the penthouses. Following the paydown and inclusive of what is under contract with senior loan will have a balance of approximately $70 million once those units closed. There has been a renewed marketing efforts through the hiring of a new sales brokerage team are known for their global luxury market leadership. Their dedicated focus on this property, coupled with their international reach, has already proven successful, and we are confident this momentum will continue.

值得注意的是，季度末後，又有兩套公寓簽訂了合同，其中包括一套頂層公寓。一旦這些單位關閉，在還款後，包括高級貸款合約中的金額，餘額將約為 7000 萬美元。透過聘請新的銷售經紀團隊，我們重新開展了行銷工作，該團隊以其全球奢侈品市場的領導地位而聞名。他們對這一地產的專注，加上他們的國際影響力，已經證明是成功的，我們相信這種勢頭將繼續下去。

With that, I will turn the call over to Anastasia to review ARI's financial results for the quarter.

接下來，我將把電話轉給阿納斯塔西婭，以審查 ARI 本季的財務表現。

Thank you, Stuart, and good morning, everyone. ARI reported distributable earnings of $0.35 per share of common stock for the second quarter. GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $33 million, or $0.23 per diluted share of common stock. ARI portfolio ended the quarter with a carrying value of $8.3 billion and a weighted average unlevered yield of 8.9%. In addition to the new investments were discussed during the quarter, we completed $116 million of gross add-on fundings from previously closed loans bringing year to date gross add on fundings to $438 million.

謝謝斯圖爾特，大家早安。ARI 報告第二季普通股每股可分配收益為 0.35 美元。歸屬於普通股股東的 GAAP 淨利潤為 3,300 萬美元，即稀釋後每股普通股 0.23 美元。本季末，ARI 投資組合的帳面價值為 83 億美元，加權平均無槓桿收益率為 8.9%。除了本季討論的新投資外，我們還從先前已結束的貸款中完成了 1.16 億美元的總附加資金，使年初至今的總附加資金達到 4.38 億美元。

For the first six months of 2024 ARI received $759 million of proceeds from loan repayments and sales. Subsequent to quarter end, we received an additional $421 million from the repayments of three senior and one subordinate loans during the quarter ARI recorded $7.5 million specific CECL alone when the subordinate loan secured by our interest in the Class A office building in Troy, Michigan that had previously been risk-rated four in conjunction with recording a specific CECL allowance for this loan,we downgraded the risk-rating to a five. It is worth noting that this loan is current on all its contractual debt service payments.

2024 年前六個月，ARI 從貸款償還和銷售中獲得了 7.59 億美元的收益。季度末後，我們從本季償還的三筆高級貸款和一筆次級貸款中獲得了額外的4.21 億美元，僅特定CECL 就記錄了750 萬美元，當次級貸款由我們在密西根州特洛伊市A在等級辦公大樓的權益擔保時，ARI 記錄了750 萬美元的特定CECL。值得注意的是，這筆貸款是按其所有合約償債付款進行的。

The General CECL allowance stood at 47 basis points of the loan at amortized cost at June 30, as three basis point increase as compared to the end of Q1. This increase was primarily attributable to new loan originations as well as a more adverse outlook for certain property types. Our total CECL allowance was 440 basis points of the loan portfolio at amortized cost basis at June 30, which represents $2.47 per share of book value.

截至 6 月 30 日，普通 CECL 準備金以攤餘成本計算為貸款的 47 個基點，比第一季末增加了 3 個基點。這一增長主要歸因於新貸款發放以及某些房地產類型的前景更為不利。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的 CECL 準備金總額為以攤餘成本計算的貸款組合的 440 個基點，相當於每股帳面價值為 2.47 美元。

ARI book value per share, excluding general CECL reserves and depreciation was $13.62, up from $13.58 at the end of last quarter. We repurchased 38 million of our common stock during the quarter at a weighted average price of $10.16 per share, which was $0.11 accretive to book value and generated 15.3% ROE. Post quarter end, we acquired an additional $2 million of our common stock at a weighted average price of $9.92 a share. With respect to our borrowings, a rise in compliance with all covenants.

不包括一般 CECL 準備金和折舊的 ARI 每股帳面價值為 13.62 美元，高於上季末的 13.58 美元。本季我們以每股 10.16 美元的加權平均價格回購了 3,800 萬股普通股，帳面價值增加了 0.11 美元，淨資產收益率達到 15.3%。季度末後，我們以每股 9.92 美元的加權平均價格額外購買了 200 萬美元的普通股。就我們的借款而言，所有契約的遵守情況都有所提高。

The company ended the quarter with $193 million of total liquidity comprised of cash on hand, undrawn credit capacity on existing facilities and loan proceeds held by the servicer. At June 30, we also held $507 million of unencumbered assets during the quarter, a rise put in place, a $74 million, of accretive financing for the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, DC, enabling ARI to earn an enhanced leverage return on equity as we continue to monitor the market to determine the optimal time to sell the hotel.

該公司本季末的流動資金總額為 1.93 億美元，包括手頭現金、現有設施的未提取信貸能力以及服務商持有的貸款收益。截至6 月30 日，我們在本季度還持有5.07 億美元的未支配資產，為華盛頓特區的五月花酒店增加了7,400 萬美元的增值融資，使ARI 能夠在我們的投資過程中獲得更高的槓桿股本回報率。

We also upsized our unsecured credit facility with Barclays during the quarter providing ARI with an additional $300 million of additional capacity. Our debt to equity ratio at quarter end was 3.4 times. As a reminder, we have no corporate debt maturities until May 2026.

本季我們也擴大了與巴克萊銀行的無擔保信貸額度，為 ARI 提供了額外 3 億美元的額外產能。季度末我們的負債股本比率為 3.4 倍。提醒一下，我們在 2026 年 5 月之前沒有公司債務到期。

And with that, we would ask the operator to open the line for questions.

然後，我們會要求接線員開通提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Harter, UBS.

（操作員說明）Doug Harter，UBS。

Thanks, and good morning. On the hospital loan. Just wondering if you have any recourse or obligations to us that ultimate borrower and the operator of the hospitals?

謝謝，早安。醫院貸款。只是想知道您對我們這個最終借款人和醫院的經營者是否有任何追索權或義務？

No, we do not.

不，我們不這樣做。

Got it. So it's just in real estate?

知道了。那麼這只是房地產領域嗎？

I mean, it's a real estate loan from our perspective, Doug. and we'll do what we can to protect our rights as a lender.

我的意思是，從我們的角度來看，這是一筆房地產貸款，道格。我們將盡我們所能保護我們作為貸款人的權利。

Great. And I guess just as you think about that asset class, how do you think about recovery values or to the extent that that some of those property hospitals are ultimately closed.

偉大的。我想，就像您考慮該資產類別一樣，您如何考慮恢復價值或其中一些房地產醫院最終關閉的程度。

Look I think while we lent against it as a portfolio of eight hospitals, I would say we look at them each as a individual assets right now. And there's -- things are somewhat in flux. But I would say we're short of doing it is worth necessary to think about each piece of collateral individually and how we recover as much value while also keeping in mind the concerns of other constituents in the process as well.

我認為，雖然我們將其作為八家醫院的投資組合進行貸款，但我想說，我們現在將它們視為單獨的資產。而且事情在某種程度上處於不斷變化之中。但我想說的是，我們還沒有這樣做，有必要單獨考慮每一項抵押品，以及我們如何恢復盡可能多的價值，同時也牢記這一過程中其他成員的擔憂。

Great. Appreciate it. Thank you for that.

偉大的。欣賞它。謝謝你。

Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的里克·肖恩。

Thanks, everybody, for taking my question. Look, the world has evolved a great deal in the last month in terms of interest rate outlook. And I'm curious, I think over the next few years, we're going to operate on two time lines. One is the emergence of additional challenges within the portfolio. And the other is the resolution of existing problematic loans.

謝謝大家回答我的問題。看，上個月世界在利率前景方面發生了很大變化。我很好奇，我認為在接下來的幾年裡，我們將按照兩條時間線運作。一是產品組合中出現了額外的挑戰。二是解決現有問題貸款。

Can you just talk a little bit, do you feel like we are now reaching the end of the emergence period that you have a pretty good idea of where the risk is with within the portfolio and going forward, it's going to be about the resolution. Can you tell us what inning we're in in each of those?

你能簡單說一下嗎？能告訴我們每場比賽都在哪一局嗎？

Yeah. I think I agree with the general premise of your question, RICK, which I feel like we know what our focus list is or what our hotspots are. And I think at this point, we're focused on path towards resolution which could play out over some time. And I think we've all been around this sector long enough to know that just because there is a stated maturity day or a target resolution date sometimes things can go through an iterative process where it plays out over time.

是的。我想我同意你問題的整體前提，RICK，我覺得我們知道我們的焦點清單是什麼或我們的熱點是什麼。我認為目前我們的重點是解決問題，這可能需要一段時間才能解決。我認為我們已經在這個領域工作了足夠長的時間，知道僅僅因為有規定的到期日或目標解決日期，有時事情就會經歷一個迭代過程，隨著時間的推移而發揮作用。

I think we are encouraged by the fact that the market in general, there seems to be more activity, which I think that leads to some enhanced clarity around where value is, and where things can get resolved. But I would say, sitting here today, given where you started the question, I feel like we've got a -- good sense of what those things are that we need to focus on. And it's really a matter of getting to resolution on the things that are on our focus list while at the same time, making sure we're doing a good job of getting capital that comes back to us redeployed into transactions. We're excited about.

我認為我們對整個市場似乎有更多活動感到鼓舞，我認為這會導致價值在哪裡以及問題可以在哪裡得到解決的問題更加清晰。但我想說，今天坐在這裡，考慮到你提出這個問題的地方，我覺得我們對我們需要關注的事情有了很好的認識。這實際上是一個解決我們重點關注的問題的問題，同時確保我們在將資本重新部署到交易方面做得很好。我們很興奮。

And look, there's a concept of rational expectations and I'm curious how quickly you see the rate outlook impacting sentiment and behavior amongst your borrowers. I mean, again, we're just weeks into this in terms of a pretty seismic shift in terms of rate outlook, but you guys are in the market every day you're having conversations. Are you seeing the tenor of things change that quickly? Or what should we expect in terms of how you think borrowers are going to potentially become more aggressive about defending their positions, given the carrying costs are likely to go down over the next 12 to 24 months?

看，有一個理性預期的概念，我很好奇您看到利率前景對借款人情緒和行為的影響有多快。我的意思是，就利率前景而言，我們才剛剛幾週就發生了巨大的轉變，但你們每天都在市場上進行對話。您是否看到事情的進展變化得這麼快？或者，鑑於未來 12 至 24 個月內持有成本可能下降，您認為借款人可能會更加積極地捍衛自己的頭寸，對此我們應該有何期待？

I mean, I think it's -- I think you're asking the right question, and I see it is anecdotal at best right now because things are occurring fairly quickly. And it's also arguably a month where people, yes, somewhat gets attached for a period of time. But I can say certainly anecdotally, I would say both in terms of existing borrowers as well as potential new transaction in the market.

我的意思是，我認為你問的是正確的問題，我認為現在這充其量只是軼事，因為事情發生得相當快。是的，這也可以說是人們在一段時間內有些依戀的一個月。但我可以肯定地說，我會說，無論是現有借款人還是市場上潛在的新交易。

Anecdotally, it feels like on there's renewed interest on the equity side of the real estate business in general, for people feeling like they can step into assets today, they might end up in a fairly attractive financing market from a rate perspective sooner than they might have thought.

有趣的是，總體來說，人們對房地產業務的股權方面重新產生了興趣，對於那些感覺自己今天可以涉足資產的人來說，從利率角度來看，他們可能會更快地進入一個相當有吸引力的融資市場有想過。

Got it. Really appreciate it, Stuart. Thank you so much for.

知道了。真的很感激，史都華。非常感謝您。

Stephen Laws, Raymond James.

史蒂芬勞斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning, Stuart. Just first to follow up on Doug's question around the hospital any thoughts on how timing plays out or do you expect the loan to go nonperforming? I know you said it's current as of today.

早上好，史都華。首先跟進道格關於醫院的問題，您對時間安排有何想法，或者您是否預計貸款會出現不良貸款？我知道你說過它是從今天開始的。

And then will that specific reserve hit in Q 3 are there events that happen further out in the future that drive that way?

那麼，第三季的特定儲備是否會受到影響，未來是否會發生一些事件導致這種情況發生？

Best guess today is that the new reserve should be coming in the second half of the year. There's just a lot of moving pieces, a lot of constituents involved and we don't want to sound non-responsive, but it is playing out daily and it's tough to give any more clarity right now.

今天最好的猜測是新儲備應該會在今年下半年推出。有很多變化，涉及很多成分，我們不想聽起來沒有回應，但它每天都在上演，現在很難給出更多的清晰度。

Understood. Shifting gears to the investment pipeline, pretty active quarter there was a lot of new originations that's continued in July. I think it's coincidental, but Q2 had for US loans, July had two Europe loans. But can you talk about your pipeline what you expect as far as portfolio turning over with repayments coming in the back half and being recycled into new investments. And should we take this recent pace of the last four months and expect that to continue over the remainder of the year?

明白了。轉向投資管道，這是一個非常活躍的季度，有很多新的項目在 7 月繼續進行。我認為這是巧合，但第二季有美國貸款，七月有兩筆歐洲貸款。但是，您能否談談您對投資組合的預期，即後半段還款到位並回收到新投資中。我們是否應該按照過去四個月的最新步伐並期望在今年剩餘時間內繼續如此？

As I indicated in my response to the question somewhere, I mean, it's a pretty active market right now. I think both equity investors and lenders are finding ways to get transactions done. And I would say, if anything the volatility around the economy over the last week or so. And what that certainly implies certain key holidays, any rate movement for we only adds to the we call it a positive momentum for the next transaction activity.

正如我在回答某個問題時指出的那樣，我的意思是，現在這是一個非常活躍的市場。我認為股權投資者和貸款人正在尋找完成交易的方法。我想說的是，過去一週左右的經濟波動。這肯定意味著某些關鍵假期，我們的任何利率變動只會增加我們稱之為下一次交易活動的積極動機。

So broadly speaking, across the real estate credit business at Apollo the pipeline is robust and we're looking at a lot of things and we're going to have a pretty robust year in terms of overall deployment and I think we remain optimistic about AMI getting paid back on the things we anticipated repaying this year and as a result we think we're well-positioned to get that capital redeployed as capital comes back to us.

因此，從廣義上講，阿波羅的整個房地產信貸業務管道都很強勁，我們正在考慮很多事情，就整體部署而言，我們將迎來非常強勁的一年，我認為我們對 AMI 保持樂觀我們預計今年償還的費用得到了回報，因此，我們認為，隨著資本回流到我們手中，我們已經做好了重新部署資本的準備。

Great. And then finally, wanted to touch on the dividend. You know, the current dividend rate implies about a 10.5% ROE on book and then pro forma for the specific reserve coming on the hospital alone, it would be a little over 11% return on book. And do you view that as sustainable, given your outlook for portfolio returns and what you're seeing on the new investment side?

偉大的。最後，想談談股息。您知道，目前的股息率意味著帳面 ROE 約為 10.5%，然後僅考慮醫院的特定準備金，帳面回報率將略高於 11%。考慮到您對投資組合回報的展望以及您對新投資方面的看法，您認為這種情況是否可持續？

I mean, I think as I implied in my remarks, I mean, we're generating ROEs consistent with what we've done historically. So that feels good. As I Think OA, will handle the dividend through our quarterly earnings discussion with the Board which is plus or minus five weeks for now. I think for us, we just want to make sure we are being mindful of what the earnings trajectory looks like over time. Obviously, there's positive momentum for us as we bring back and hopefully some of the underperforming capital, but we might be facing a different interest rate curve environment, so a lot of factors will go into the dialogue overall, but just in terms of the ROEs we're generating on new transactions, they're pretty consistent with where they've been historical.

我的意思是，我認為正如我在演講中所暗示的那樣，我們正在產生與我們歷史上所做的一致的交戰回報率。所以感覺很好。我認為 OA 將透過與董事會的季度收益討論來處理股息，目前正負五週。我認為對我們來說，我們只是想確保我們專注於隨著時間的推移獲利軌蹟的情況。顯然，當我們帶回並希望一些表現不佳的資本時，我們有積極的動力，但我們可能面臨不同的利率曲線環境，因此整體對話中將考慮很多因素，但僅就股本回報率而言我們正在產生新的交易，它們與歷史記錄非常一致。

Great. Appreciate the comments this morning, Stuart. Thank you.

偉大的。感謝今天早上的評論，斯圖爾特。謝謝。

Steve Delaney, Citizens' JMP Securities.

Steve Delaney，公民 JMP 證券。

Thanks. Good morning, Stuart and team and congrats on your full dividend coverage in a challenging market for the second quarter. My question is, could piggyback, Stephen, just a bit looking back to the first half of the year, ironically or maybe it's by design, but your portfolio was $8.3 billion, including the subs and the seniors at year end '23. And it's right on the same number within $100 million, it rounded at June 30. If you look forward to the second half of this year, would you think the best approach from the analysts and modeling would be to maybe stick a flattish portfolio as we look for the rest of the year.

謝謝。早安，斯圖爾特和團隊，祝賀您在第二季度充滿挑戰的市場中獲得全額股息支付。我的問題是，史蒂芬，能否回顧一下今年上半年，諷刺的是，也許這是有意設計的，但你的投資組合在 23 年底的價值為 83 億美元，包括替補和高級球員。6 月 30 日四捨五入後，數字正好在 1 億美元以內。如果您期待今年下半年，您是否認為分析師和建模的最佳方法可能是在今年剩餘時間內保持持平的投資組合。

It sounds like you are seeing opportunities that would prevent like material shrinkage. But just curious about your thought, can you maintain the portfolio? And given that it feels the -- sorry for the long question, but I want you to just have to answer one question, not two. Given what appears to be more of a lender's market developing over the next one to two years beyond the second half of this year. Could 2025 be a pretty active and new equity coming into CRE. What's your expectation and hope for 2025 after we get through the end of this year? Thanks very much.

聽起來您似乎看到了可以防止材料收縮的機會。但只是好奇你的想法，你能維持這個投資組合嗎？考慮到這一點，我很抱歉問了這麼長的問題，但我希望你只需要回答一個問題，而不是兩個問題。考慮到今年下半年之後的未來一到兩年，貸款人市場似乎將更加發展。2025 年，CRE 可能會出現相當活躍的新股。度過今年年底後，您對2025年有什麼期待與希望？非常感謝。

So I'd say a few things on I think you're notion of 2024 moving sideways in terms of portfolio side is a reasonable assumption, we'll get capital back. We'll put capital out, but there's really not a catalyst for growth per se. So again, don't give me a hard time if we're talking $100 million bucks in either direction. But that feels and I'm pretty good I see sitting here today and I'm looking at it both through the lens of what we're seeing in our real estate business, but also what we and others are thinking about. These are the various pools of real estate equity capital.

因此，我想說幾句話，我認為 2024 年投資組合方面橫向移動的想法是合理的假設，我們將收回資本。我們會投入資本，但實際上並沒有成長本身的催化劑。再說一遍，如果我們正在談論任何方向的 1 億美元，請不要為難我。但這感覺很好，我今天坐在這裡，我既透過我們在房地產業務中看到的鏡頭，也透過我們和其他人正在思考的鏡頭來看待它。這些是各​​種房地產股權資本池。

I do think 2025 could be a pretty active year. Obviously, there's overall economic overlay around that. But if we achieve the hoped-for soft landing with some moderation of interest rates for the economy, hanging in there. I do think there's still a lot of capital looking to be active in 2025 could be pretty busy. I think the greatest opportunity for us to be growing and more active in 2025 is around on turning some of our more challenging Asset Management situations into resolutions, which give us back capital with which to deploy.

我確實認為 2025 年可能是非常活躍的一年。顯然，這與整體經濟重疊有關。但如果我們透過對經濟利率進行一定程度的適度調整來實現所希望的軟著陸，那就堅持下去。我確實認為仍有大量資本希望在 2025 年活躍起來，這可能會非常繁忙。我認為，我們在 2025 年實現成長和更積極的最大機會是將一些更具挑戰性的資產管理情況轉化為解決方案，從而為我們提供可用於部署的資本。

So if you go back to my comments, I'm harping on getting the senior paid back on one 111 West 57th, because once the seniors paid back every incremental dollar on the unit sales comes back to us directly, which provides capital to put to work on offensively. And then obviously, I think everybody's around some of the other situations we're involved in as well.

因此，如果您回到我的評論，我會一直在努力讓 111 West 57 號的高級人員償還，因為一旦高級人員償還了單位銷售中的每一美元，都會直接返還給我們，這提供了資本致力於進攻。顯然，我認為每個人也都遇到過我們所涉及的其他一些情況。

That's helpful. And of course, if we get something close to a 3% fed funds rate, I guess that doesn't do anything but help that scenario, right, for 2025

這很有幫助。當然，如果我們的聯邦基金利率接近 3%，我想這只會有助於 2025 年的情況，對吧

I think you're right. Yeah.

我認為你是對的。是的。

Yeah. All right. Thanks. Stay well.

是的。好的。謝謝。保持健康。

Jade Rahmani, KBW.

傑德·拉赫馬尼，KBW。

Thank you very much starting with one 111 West 57th. If we could just summarize the deal and ARI's position, could you give the remaining units left we sold at this stage?

非常感謝您從 111 West 57th 開始。如果我們能簡單總結一下這筆交易和 ARI 的立場，您能透露一下我們現階段出售的剩餘單位嗎？

I'd rather not be specific on the number of units. But to start the question, Jade, as I indicated in my remarks, we ended the first quarter with there being a $200 million senior loan in front of ARI's position that has been paid down to about a $140 million bucks, and there's roughly another 70 million of units under contract. So we think we are in short order down to [70 million] in front of us with confidence around continued sales on that.

我不想具體說明單位數量。但首先，Jade，正如我在發言中指出的那樣，我們在第一季度結束時，ARI 的頭寸之前有一筆 2 億美元的高級貸款，已償還至約 1.4 億美元，還有大約 70萬單位的合約.因此，我們認為我們很快就會減少到 [7000 萬]，並且對持續銷售充滿信心。

So the 70 million that's under contract, over what time frame will that close?

那麼，合約中的 7000 萬美元會在什麼時間範圍內結束？

It'll close during the second half of the year.

它將在今年下半年關閉。

Okay. And as of the second quarter, ARI's position included 261 million of senior man and $74 million or $28 million of junior meds for a total of $363 million.

好的。截至第二季度，ARI 的部位包括 2.61 億美元的高級醫療人員和 7,400 萬美元或 2,800 萬美元的初級醫療人員，總計 3.63 億美元。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. Just wanted to make sure that was clear. I'm turning to the health care situation. Can you say whether this will be an REO property because it's quite complicated, the owner of the real estate is in a joint venture 50/50. And there was an operator, there's media reports that the operator rejected the lease. There's reports that there weren't bids on at least two of the hospitals and also that the rent payments are too high complicated the situation. So I know there's ongoing negotiations with the state and such. But do you anticipate this will be an REO?

好的。只是想確保這一點清楚。我要談談醫療保健狀況。你能說一下這是否是 REO 房產嗎？還有一個運營商，有媒體報道稱運營商拒絕了租約。有報導稱，至少有兩家醫院沒有出價，而且租金過高，使情況變得複雜。所以我知道正在與政府等進行談判。但您預計這將是 REO 嗎？

I take I'll refer back to what I said to I think it was Doug's question, which is at this point. I think you need to think about is eight individual assets as opposed to one consolidated portfolio. And I think it is certainly possible that there will be differentiated outcomes for different hospital.

我想我會回顧我所說的話，我認為這是道格的問題，此時此刻。我認為你需要考慮的是八項單獨的資產，而不是一個綜合投資組合。我認為不同的醫院一定會有不同的結果。

Okay. And then the adequacy of the $90 million reserve, sorry to ask say it's about the industry, but mortgage rates don't tend to be overly conservative when it comes to reserves. Anything you could talk about as to how you got to the $90 million. I know it is about 26% of ARI's loan exposure, but any color on that?

好的。然後是 9000 萬美元準備金的充足性，抱歉，這與行業有關，但在準備金方面，抵押貸款利率往往不會過於保守。任何關於你如何獲得 9000 萬美元的事情都可以談論。我知道這大約佔 ARI 貸款風險的 26%，但這有意義嗎？

I think the process we went through for this reserve was consistent with the process we've been through for every other specific seasonal reserve we've taken.

我認為我們為該儲備所經歷的過程與我們為我們採取的其他每個特定季節性儲備所經歷的過程是一致的。

Okay. And then on the new origination front, I've always appreciated ARI's differentiated perspective on multi-family. And so now I see two multi-family loans, which are refinanced loans at quite a low LTV as well. So I'm not sure if that's in our future projected stabilized LTV or what the basis is, but how are you thinking about approaching the multi-family space something historically, ARI has not really played it?

好的。然後在新的起源方面，我一直很欣賞 ARI 對多戶住宅的差異化視角。現在我看到兩筆多戶家庭貸款，它們也是 LTV 相當低的再融資貸款。所以我不確定這是否是我們未來預計的穩定 LTV 或基礎是什麼，但您如何考慮進入歷史上 ARI 尚未真正發揮作用的多戶空間？

Look I think the perspective at the macro level is the long term, there is still need for and demand for high quality multifamily. So we like the space in general, our historic rate is reticence with respect to multifamily has been a combination of concerns over valuations, competition in certain situations from GSEs, et cetera. I think sitting here today, we've been in a window where by on the margin, there's been for a brief period of time, maybe less competition on certain transactions we've pursued. We like the long-term macro positioning of multifamily, and we found some situations that worked for us.

我認為從宏觀層面來看，從長遠來看，對高品質多戶住宅的需求和需求仍然存在。因此，我們總體上喜歡這個領域，我們對多戶住宅的歷史態度是沉默的，這是出於對估值、在某些情況下來自政府支持企業的競爭等方面的擔憂。我認為今天坐在這裡，我們已經處於一個窗口期，在很短的一段時間內，我們所追求的某些交易的競爭可能會減少。我們喜歡多戶住宅的長期宏觀定位，並且發現了一些適合我們的情況。

As always, we continue to run the portfolio on a bottoms up deal-by-deal basis. So I would not read into this any change in overall thesis or a desire to create something at a certain percentage will continue to look deal by deal. But for a moment in time, given the volatility in the marketplace the team was able to source some pretty interesting opportunities. And we've always had a positive macro thesis about this space. It's really been about valuations at a moment in time as to how we thought about the ROEs on a risk-adjusted basis for multifamily deals versus other opportunities.

一如既往，我們繼續以自下而上的逐筆交易的方式運行投資組合。因此，我不會解讀整體論文的任何變化，或者以一定比例創造某些東西的願望將繼續逐筆交易。但在一段時間內，考慮到市場的波動，團隊能夠找到一些非常有趣的機會。關於這個領域，我們一直有一個正面的宏觀論點。這實際上是關於我們如何在風險調整的基礎上考慮多戶住宅交易與其他機會的淨資產收益率的估值。

And the two deals in the slide pack are there's at least one of them in California. It looks like a newbuild in our Class A. and perhaps luxury. But what are you going after or these recently completed construction deals and you're doing the lease up financing or --

幻燈片包中的兩筆交易中至少有一筆在加州。它看起來像是我們 A 級的新建建築，也許還很豪華。但是你在追求什麼或這些最近完成的建築交易並且你正在做租賃融資或者--

It's new product lease up place

這是新產品租賃地

All right. Thanks a lot for taking the questions.

好的。非常感謝您提出問題。

I think, Jade, the one in DC was recently built, everything was like 2016.That was -- it's not a, I guess, lease up playing in the normal one. If you recall, DC had some pretty liberal laws in terms of -- with tenants with COVID and stuff like that. So it had some disruptions with tenants in terms of evictions and things like that, that the sponsor has been working through. So on that one, it was a refinance for the sponsor invested substantial equity paid down the loan and they're working on cleaning up the rent roll, if you will.

我想，Jade，華盛頓特區的那個是最近建成的，一切都像 2016 年一樣。如果你還記得的話，華盛頓特區有一些相當寬鬆的法律，涉及患有新冠肺炎的租戶等。因此，在驅逐等方面，租戶受到了一些幹擾，贊助商一直在努力解決這些問題。因此，就這一點而言，這是贊助商投資的大量股權償還貸款的再融資，如果你願意的話，他們正在努力清理租金。

Eric Gray, Bank of America.

艾瑞克‧格雷，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning. Jade covered most of my questions, but just one I guess is can you talk a little bit about the opportunity in Europe and what you're seeing over there in terms of the pipeline? And also was just curious about the office trends there. Most of the upcoming office maturities in your portfolio are in Europe. So any color you could give on that would be interesting as well. Thanks.

嗨，早安。傑德回答了我的大部分問題，但我想只有一個問題是你能談談歐洲的機會以及你在那裡看到的管道方面的情況嗎？我也只是對那裡的辦公室趨勢感到好奇。您的投資組合中大部分即將到期的辦公室都位於歐洲。所以你可以賦予它任何顏色也會很有趣。謝謝。

I'll start with the office question. I would say, look, similar to the US, every market and city is a little different. I would say, thankfully most of our exposure is in London, which continues to be one of the better, tighter markets, people going back to the office. I would say the other phenomenon, if you will, in London and Europe, much more so than here in the US is the importance of LEED and environmentally friendly offices. It's taken much more seriously by occupiers. And so you see a real need for tenants to be in new modern green space.

我將從辦公室問題開始。我想說，你看，跟美國類似，每個市場和城市都有點不同。我想說，值得慶幸的是，我們的大部分業務都在倫敦，倫敦仍然是更好、更緊張的市場之一，人們會回到辦公室。我想說的是，如果你願意的話，倫敦和歐洲的另一個現像比美國更重要的是 LEED 和環保辦公室的重要性。佔領者對此更加重視。因此，您會發現租戶確實需要入住新的現代綠色空間。

And at the same time, I think London is viewed as a safe place for capital. So you continue to see international capital going there. So I would say you're seeing in London in particular people being back in the office, occupiers, signing leases at the newer buildings. And you also see capital, both financing is available as well as acquisitions.

同時，我認為倫敦被視為資本的安全之地。所以你會繼續看到國際資本流向那裡。所以我想說，你在倫敦尤其看到人們回到辦公室，佔領者在新建築上簽租約。你還可以看到資本，融資和收購都是可用的。

Thankfully for us, our largest office exposure is in London. And it also is a long-term lease headquarters building. So we have a 20-year lease to a large financial institution as their headquarters. So that's our largest one, and that will continue to fund up over time. So that's why you're seeing our office exposure going up because that continues to fund. But obviously we're very comfortable on that deal. But I would say generally seeing positive trends in London and other markets in Europe.

值得慶幸的是，我們最大的辦公室位於倫敦。同時也是長期租賃的總部大樓。所以我們和一家大型金融機構簽訂了20年的租約，作為他們的總部。這是我們最大的一個，隨著時間的推移，資金將繼續增加。這就是為什麼你會看到我們的辦公室風險敞口上升，因為這繼續提供資金。但顯然我們對這筆交易非常滿意。但我想說的是，倫敦和歐洲其他市場總體上看到了積極的趨勢。

As far as deal opportunity, I would say, Europe, given solvency, for other reasons, really has never had a large CMBS market or capital market that way. They did have, I would say, a much more robust corporate bond market that the REITs over there took advantage of. But CMBS really never took root. So whereas in the US everything seems to be getting done by the SASB market, that doesn't really exist in Europe.

就交易機會而言，我想說，考慮到償付能力以及其他原因，歐洲確實從未有過這樣的大型 CMBS 市場或資本市場。我想說，他們確實擁有一個更強勁的公司債市場，那裡的房地產投資信託基金利用了這個市場。但 CMBS 確實從未紮根。因此，儘管在美國一切似乎都由 SASB 市場完成，但在歐洲卻並不存在。

And so for us, we've really seen opportunity where you're getting into pan-European deals because of having to go multi-jurisdictional. The banks there don't like as much. We have some good technology there, acquisition facilities, industrial, other property types. just larger deals where we can marry Apollo Capital across vehicles, right, and basically not have a bar and not take syndication risk. Those have all been things where we've had a competitive advantage.

因此，對我們來說，我們確實看到了因為必須跨司法管轄區而進行泛歐洲交易的機會。那裡的銀行不太喜歡。我們在那裡擁有一些良好的技術、收購設施、工業和其他財產類型。只是規模更大的交易，我們可以透過多種方式與阿波羅資本聯手，對吧，而且基本上沒有門檻，也不會承擔銀團風險。這些都是我們擁有競爭優勢的事情。

And I would say similar to the US, the loan-on-loan or warehouse financing business is very much alive in Europe. So we're able to get very attractive terms -- in terms of not market-to-market stuff, advanced rate spread, so we're able to create a -- attractive absolute return. And then I would say on the hedging basis, things obviously shift. I would say there's not much of a pickup right now from pound or any pickup really from pound to dollar. It does continue to be a little bit of a pickup from Europe's

我想說，與美國類似，貸款貸款或倉庫融資業務在歐洲非常活躍。因此，我們能夠獲得非常有吸引力的條款——就非市場對市場的東西而言，先進的利差，所以我們能夠創造——有吸引力的絕對回報。然後我想說，在對沖的基礎上，情況顯然已經改變了。我想說，目前英鎊兌美元的升值幅度並不大，英鎊兌美元的升值幅度也不大。它確實繼續比歐洲有所回升

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Rossi for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在想將電話轉回給羅西先生，請他發表結束語。

Thank you all for participating.

感謝大家的參與。

Thank you. This concludes the conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。