Ares Management Corp (ARES) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Ares Management Corporation's fourth-quarter and year-end 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded on Wednesday, February 5, 2025.

大家早安。歡迎參加 Ares Management Corporation 2024 年第四季和年終收益電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議於 2025 年 2 月 5 日星期三錄製。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Mason, Co-Head of Public Markets Investor Relations for Ares Management. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我將電話轉交給 Ares Management 公開市場投資者關係聯席主管 Greg Mason 先生。先生，請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for our fourth-quarter and year-end 2024 conference call. I'm joined today by Michael Arougheti, our Chief Executive Officer; and Jarrod Phillips, our Chief Financial Officer. We also have a number of executives with us today who will be available during Q&A.

早安，感謝您今天參加我們的 2024 年第四季和年終電話會議。今天與我一起參加的是我們的執行長 Michael Arougheti；以及我們的財務長 Jarrod Phillips。今天我們還有幾位主管出席，他們將參與問答環節。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that comments made during this call contain forward-looking statements and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those identified in our risk factors in our SEC filings. Our actual results could differ materially and we undertake no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. Please also note that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and nothing on this call constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in Ares or any Ares fund.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議中所發表的評論包含前瞻性陳述，並受風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們在美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件中確定的風險因素中所述的風險和不確定性。我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異，我們不承擔更新任何此類前瞻性陳述的義務。另外請注意，過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成出售要約或購買 Ares 或任何 Ares 基金的權益的要約邀請。

During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. Please refer to our fourth-quarter earnings presentation available on the Investor Resources section of our website for reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Note that we plan to file our Form 10-K later this month.

在本次電話會議中，我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標不應孤立地考慮或取代根據公認會計原則編制的指標。請參閱我們網站投資者資源部分提供的第四季度收益報告，以了解這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表。請注意，我們計劃在本月稍後提交 10-K 表格。

This morning, we announced that we declared a higher level of quarterly dividends, starting with our first-quarter common dividend of $1.12 per share on the company's Class A and non-voting common stock, representing an increase of 20% over our dividend for the same quarter a year ago. The dividend will be paid on March 31, 2025, to holders of record on March 17. Jarrod will provide additional color on the drivers of this increase later in the call.

今天上午，我們宣布提高季度股息，第一季公司 A 類無投票權普通股每股普通股股息為 1.12 美元，較去年同期成長 20%。股利將於 2025 年 3 月 31 日支付給 3 月 17 日登記在冊的持有人。賈羅德 (Jarrod) 稍後將在電話會議中進一步闡述推動這一成長的因素。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Mike, who will start with some fourth-quarter and year-end business highlights and our outlook for 2025.

現在，我將電話轉給麥克，他將首先介紹第四季和年終的一些業務亮點以及我們對 2025 年的展望。

Great. Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I hope you're all doing well.

偉大的。謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。我希望你們一切都好。

I'd like to start off with some really exciting news regarding enhancements to our executive management team. This morning, we announced that Kipp deVeer and Blair Jacobson will be taking on newly created positions as co-presidents effective immediately. In these new roles, Kipp and Blair will be responsible for helping drive firm-wide strategic and operational initiatives and support critical investor and counterparty relationships. In addition, a key responsibility in their new role is to help develop the next generation of leaders across the platform.

首先，我想宣布一些有關我們執行管理團隊增強的令人興奮的消息。今天上午，我們宣布 Kipp deVeer 和 Blair Jacobson 將立即擔任新設立的聯合總裁職位。在這些新職位上，基普和布萊爾將負責幫助推動全公司的策略和營運計劃，並支持關鍵的投資者和交易對手關係。此外，他們在新職位上的一項關鍵職責是幫助培養整個平台的下一代領導者。

I had the good fortune of being friends with Kipp and Blair for over 30 years. I've had the pleasure of working with them over the past 20 as they've helped build and lead a tremendous credit franchise here at Ares with Kipp leading the global credit group and Blair co-heading the European credit business. Their experience and capabilities will be incredibly valuable as they expand their impact even further across the firm. This will also be a big benefit to me as they'll take significant operational responsibilities off my plate, which will enable me to spend more time on our most important and impactful strategic priorities.

我很榮幸能與 Kipp 和 Blair 成為朋友超過 30 年。在過去的 20 年裡，我很榮幸與他們合作，他們幫助 Ares 建立並領導了龐大的信貸特許經營權，其中 Kipp 領導全球信貸集團，Blair 共同領導歐洲信貸業務。隨著他們進一步擴大對整個公司的影響力，他們的經驗和能力將變得非常寶貴。這對我來說也是一個很大的好處，因為他們將承擔我身上的重大營運責任，讓我能夠花更多時間在我們最重要、最有影響力的策略重點上。

To be clear, this move is about expanding our executive management team to more effectively lead our business, which has grown tremendously over the past several years. I want to congratulate Kipp and Blair on their promotions, and I look forward to working with them in their new roles for many years to come.

需要明確的是，此舉是為了擴大我們的執行管理團隊，以更有效地領導我們的業務，我們的業務在過去幾年中得到了巨大的成長。我要祝賀基普和布萊爾的晉升，並期待在未來的許多年裡與他們一起在新的職位上共事。

And now, let me begin with some high-level comments on the year. 2024 was a very good year for Ares, both financially and strategically. We celebrated the 10-year anniversary of our IPO and the 20-year anniversary of the IPO of our publicly traded BDC, Ares Capital, which is the largest of its kind in the industry. We held Investor Days for both companies where we laid out our vision and strategy for continued success.

現在，讓我先對今年做一些總體評論。 2024 年對 Ares 來說都是非常好的一年，無論從財務角度或策略角度而言。我們慶祝了公司首次公開募股 (IPO) 十週年以及我們上市公司 BDC Ares Capital 首次公開募股 (IPO) 二十週年，該公司是業內規模最大的同類公司。我們為兩家公司舉辦了投資者日，闡述了我們持續成功的願景和策略。

We also made substantial organic and inorganic investments to bolster our growth outlook for the years ahead. Ares set many new financial records last year, including AUM, fee-paying AUM, annual fundraising and deployment, management fees, FRE, and realized income. On a full-year basis, management fees and FRE increased 15% and 17%, respectively, driven by FP AUM growth and improved FRE margins.

我們也進行了大量有機和無機投資，以增強未來幾年的成長前景。Ares 去年創下了許多新的財務記錄，包括 AUM、付費 AUM、年度籌款和部署、管理費、FRE 和已實現收入。從全年來看，受FP AUM成長和FRE利潤率提高的推動，管理費和FRE分別成長了15%和17%。

We expect our strong growth to continue. We operate in vast addressable markets, and although we're one of the largest alternative managers, we believe that we're still in the early innings of our global expansion. We believe that retail and institutional investors remain meaningfully under-allocated to the private assets that we source and invest in. We also expect the trend of increasing alternative allocations going to fewer scaled managers will continue to drive further inflows to the largest industry players such as ourselves.

我們預計強勁成長勢頭將持續下去。我們經營的業務遍佈廣闊的潛在市場，儘管我們是最大的另類投資管理人之一，但我們相信，我們仍處於全球擴張的早期階段。我們認為，散戶和機構投資者對於我們尋找和投資的私募資產的配置仍然嚴重不足。我們也預計，越來越多另類資產配置流向規模較小的管理人的趨勢將繼續推動更多資金流入像我們這樣的最大產業參與者。

To sustain our long-term growth potential, it's imperative that we continue deepening our ability to source differentiated high-quality assets with attractive return profiles that we believe will enable us to maintain our long-term performance through cycles. To that end, we continue to invest in our origination capabilities around the globe, adding more than 100 investment professionals last year. We now have one of the largest teams in the industry with over 1,100 Ares investment professionals sourcing thousands of investments across the risk return spectrum in our 35-plus global offices. Adding new strategies in new markets, as evidenced by the GCP International acquisition will only further expand and enhance our capabilities.

為了保持我們的長期成長潛力，我們必須繼續深化我們尋找具有吸引力回報特徵的差異化優質資產的能力，我們相信這將使我們能夠在周期中保持長期業績。為此，我們繼續在全球投資發起能力，去年增加了 100 多名投資專業人士。現在，我們擁有業內最大的團隊之一，在全球 35 多個辦事處擁有超過 1,100 名 Ares 投資專業人士，他們在各個風險回報範圍內尋找數千種投資機會。在新的市場中增加新的策略，正如收購 GCP International 所證明的那樣，只會進一步擴大和增強我們的能力。

Despite a more subdued transaction environment in 2024, we were very active using our relationships, incumbency advantages, and breadth of strategies to invest a record $106.7 billion, up more than 50% over 2023. Throughout the year, we saw our investing activities increase each quarter, finishing with over $32 billion invested during the fourth quarter. Our Q4 investment activity represented a 34% increase from the prior year period, driven by meaningful increases in US private credit, real estate debt and equity, and secondary solutions.

儘管 2024 年的交易環境較為低迷，但我們仍非常積極地利用我們的關係、在職優勢和廣泛的策略，投資達到創紀錄的 1067 億美元，比 2023 年增長 50% 以上。全年我們的投資活動每季都在增加，第四季的投資額超過 320 億美元。我們第四季的投資活動較去年同期成長了 34%，這得益於美國私人信貸、房地產債務和股權以及二級解決方案的大幅成長。

With respect to the year ahead, the current market environment is dynamic, and we're optimistic that a gradual improvement in the overall transaction environment will translate into growing net investment activity in 2025, subject to normal market seasonality. We believe that there is a meaningful amount of pent-up demand to transact driven by the need for PE exits. As an illustration, there's over $3 trillion of unrealized value across 28,000 unsold companies in global buyout portfolios, and more than 40% of these investments are four years or older.

展望未來一年，當前的市場環境是動態的，我們樂觀地認為，整體交易環境的逐步改善將轉化為 2025 年淨投資活動的成長，但要受到正常市場季節性的影響。我們相信，受 PE 退出需求的推動，存在著大量被壓抑的交易需求。舉例來說，全球收購投資組合中 28,000 家未出售公司的未實現價值超過 3 兆美元，其中 40% 以上的投資已持續四年或更長時間。

There are also other market forces that we expect, should help unlock transaction activity, including increased business confidence, the potential for less regulation, more active financing markets, improving asset values, narrowing bid-ask spreads, the return of strategic buyers, and hopefully, a more constructive IPO market. We believe that our business is well positioned with market-leading platforms in several of the fastest-growing private market segments.

我們預計，還有其他市場力量也將有助於釋放交易活動，包括企業信心增強、監管減少的可能性、融資市場更加活躍、資產價值提高、買賣價差縮小、戰略買家的回歸，以及預計會有更多建設性的 IPO 市場。我們相信，我們的業務在幾個成長最快的私人市場領域中擁有市場領先的平台，處於有利地位。

As we demonstrated over the last two years, we can be a supportive provider of liquidity to our many clients even if new transaction volumes don't accelerate. In addition, once the GCP International acquisition closes, we'll have enhanced our capabilities to invest in real assets for the new economy, particularly in vertically integrated industrial real estate and digital infrastructure. The growth in the primary markets for these assets is also driving a need for greater secondary solutions.

正如我們過去兩年所展示的那樣，即使新的交易量沒有加速，我們也可以為我們的眾多客戶提供流動性支援。此外，一旦 GCP International 收購完成，我們將增強投資新經濟實體資產的能力，特別是垂直整合的工業房地產和數位基礎設施。這些資產的一級市場的成長也推動了對更大二級解決方案的需求。

We're entering 2025 in an even stronger position to take advantage of a more active market with a record $133 billion of dry powder and the strongest array of investment strategies in our firm's history. The $81 billion of AUM raised but that is not yet paying fees provides us with approximately 30% embedded gross base management fee growth upon deployment. And when you combine this with our visibility around our European style performance income, we believe that we have high visibility on our long-term growth.

我們將以更強大的實力邁入 2025 年，利用更活躍的市場優勢，擁有創紀錄的 1,330 億美元的現金儲備和公司歷史上最強大的投資策略陣容。籌集的 810 億美元 AUM 尚未支付費用，為我們部署後提供了約 30% 的嵌入式總基本管理費成長。當您將此與我們圍繞歐洲風格業績收入的可見性結合起來時，我們相信我們的長期成長具有很高的可見性。

Our ability to generate differentiated performance across an expanding array of investment solutions through various distribution channels continues to drive our fundraising capability. In the fourth quarter, we raised a quarterly record of $28.3 billion in new capital commitments, and we set a full-year fundraising record of $92.7 billion in 2024. This full-year amount exceeded our previous annual fundraising record by more than $15 billion and showcases the depth and diversity of our fundraising platform.

我們透過各種分銷管道在不斷擴大的投資解決方案中創造差異化績效的能力繼續推動我們的籌資能力。第四季度，我們籌集了 283 億美元的新資本承諾，創下了季度紀錄，並在 2024 年創下了 927 億美元的全年籌資紀錄。這項全年募款金額超出我們先前的年度募款記錄 150 多億美元，彰顯了我們募款平台的深度和多樣性。

This fundraising momentum helped our assets under management grow by 16% year over year to over $484 billion. Importantly, this greater depth and diversification is raising our fundraising floor. In 2024, nearly 65% of our total fundraising was outside of our campaign funds, and this comprised 20% from wealth, 16% from institutional SMAs, 7% from our insurance affiliate, Aspida, and the remaining 22% from a mix of institutional open-end funds, public entities, CLOs and other vehicles.

這項籌資動能幫助我們管理的資產年增 16%，達到超過 4,840 億美元。重要的是，更大的深度和多樣化正在提高我們的籌款底線。2024 年，我們籌集的總資金中近 65% 來自競選資金之外，其中 20% 來自財富，16% 來自機構 SMA，7% 來自我們的保險附屬公司 Aspida，其餘 22% 來自機構開放式基金、公共實體、CLO 和其他工具的組合。

Now, I'd like to provide a few highlights from our strong Q4 fundraising results. During the fourth quarter, ACE VI accepted LP equity commitments of EUR2.8 billion, which brought total LP commitments for this fund to EUR17 billion. We believe that ACE VI is the largest institutional private credit fund ever raised globally based on LP equity commitments. This represents a more than 50% increase from the predecessor fund and ACE VI received broad support from over 250 global investors, including 85 that are new to the Ares platform.

現在，我想介紹一下我們第四季融資業績的幾個亮點。第四季度，ACE VI 接受了 28 億歐元的 LP 股權承諾，這使得該基金的 LP 總承諾達到 170 億歐元。我們認為，ACE VI 是有史以來全球範圍內基於 LP 股權承諾籌集的最大的機構私募信貸基金。這比前基金增加了 50% 以上，ACE VI 獲得了超過 250 名全球投資者的廣泛支持，其中包括 85 名新加入 Ares 平台的投資者。

Including related vehicles and anticipated leverage, the total available investment capital for the Ares European direct lending strategy is expected to be approximately EUR30 billion. When combined with SDL III, which had its final close last quarter of approximately $34 billion in total investment capital, including related vehicles and anticipated fund leverage, we've generated approximately $65 billion of institutional drawdown capital in our direct lending strategies over the past 24 months. We're also seeing very strong demand for our open-ended European Direct Lending Fund in the wealth channel, after raising nearly $1.5 billion in equity commitments in 2024 and crossing its one-year anniversary last month, the fund now has AUM exceeding $2.2 billion.

包括相關工具和預期槓桿，Ares 歐洲直接貸款策略的可用總投資資本預計約為 300 億歐元。加上 SDL III（上個季度最終收盤時總投資資本約為 340 億美元，包括相關工具和預期基金槓桿），我們在過去 24 個月的直接貸款策略中產生了約 650 億美元的機構提取資本。我們也看到財富管道對開放式歐洲直接貸款基金的需求非常強勁，該基金在 2024 年籌集了近 15 億美元的股權承諾並於上個月迎來一周年，目前其資產管理規模已超過 22 億美元。

Continuing credit, we raised more than $15.7 billion of equity in debt across our non-traded BDC and public BDC for the full year, and we issued a record 12 CLOs totaling nearly $7 billion. Our recently launched third opportunistic credit fund began taking in capital in the fourth quarter, and we expect a significant amount of additional capital to be raised by the end of Q1. We also held $1 billion first close for our second sports, media and entertainment fund, and we expect to raise significant capital in this strategy across multiple vehicles this year.

在持續信貸方面，我們全年在非交易 BDC 和公共 BDC 中籌集了超過 157 億美元的債務股權，並創紀錄地發行了 12 個 CLO，總額接近 70 億美元。我們最近推出的第三個機會信貸基金在第四季度開始吸收資本，我們預計到第一季末將籌集大量額外資本。我們也為第二隻體育、媒體和娛樂基金進行了 10 億美元的首次募集，我們預計今年將透過多種投資工具為這項策略籌集大量資金。

Within our real assets group, the improving real estate market sentiment has already begun to materialize in our fundraising. During the fourth quarter, we continued to see strong investor demand for our real estate debt strategies, which raised $2.4 billion in the quarter, and we're in the market with the latest vintages of both our European and US value-add real estate campaign funds.

在我們的實體資產集團中，房地產市場情緒的改善已經開始在我們的融資中體現。在第四季度，我們繼續看到投資者對我們的房地產債務策略的強勁需求，該策略在本季度籌集了 24 億美元，並且我們以最新一批歐洲和美國增值房地產活動基金進入市場。

With respect to Ares' sixth infrastructure debt fund in the market, we expect to reach nearly $1.5 billion in total capital shortly, and we continue to see increasing demand from investors. We also expect the final close in our second climate infrastructure fund in the first half of 2025. For the year, we raised $11.5 billion across our real assets business, and we're optimistic about the continued recovery in these markets throughout the course of 2025.

對於 Ares 上市的第六支基礎設施債務基金，我們預計不久將達到近 15 億美元的總資本，並且我們看到投資者的需求持續增加。我們也預計我們的第二個氣候基礎設施基金將在 2025 年上半年最終關閉。今年，我們透過實體資產業務籌集了 115 億美元，我們對 2025 年這些市場的持續復甦充滿樂觀。

In secondaries, strong fundraising across private equity, infrastructure and credit drove the group's AUM up nearly 18% year over year. During the fourth quarter, our new private equity structured solutions fund raised over $500 million in its initial closing, and we raised an additional $630 million in our third infrastructure secondaries fund, including related vehicles. APMF continues to see strong fundraising momentum and exceeded $2 billion in total AUM at the end of the year.

在二級市場，私募股權、基礎設施和信貸領域的強勁融資推動該集團的資產管理規模年增近 18%。在第四季度，我們的新私募股權結構化解決方案基金在首次募集時籌集了超過 5 億美元，並且我們在第三個基礎設施二級基金（包括相關工具）中額外籌集了 6.3 億美元。APMF 繼續保持強勁的籌資勢頭，年底的總 AUM 超過 20 億美元。

Institutional investor equity commitments and related capital totaled over $56 billion in 2024 with strong support across our platform. While we saw another strong year for credit, we were pleased to see year-over-year increasing commitments in both real assets and secondaries. We continue to deepen our relationships with our current investors who accounted for 85% of our institutional channel fundraising. And we also welcomed more than 300 new institutional investors to the platform in 2024.

在我們平台的大力支持下，機構投資者的股權承諾和相關資本在 2024 年總額超過 560 億美元。雖然我們又看到了信貸強勁的一年，但我們很高興看到實體資產和二級市場的承諾逐年增加。我們繼續深化與現有投資者的關係，他們占我們機構通路融資的 85%。2024年，我們也迎來了300多家新的機構投資者加入平台。

Now turning to the wealth channel, we continue to see significant opportunities to expand our business. Last year, demand for our products exceeded our ambitious expectations for the year. For the full year, we raised over $10 billion in equity and over $18 billion of total AUM, including fund leverage. Each quarter brought increased momentum, and this culminated in our highest quarterly inflows in Q4 raising $3.1 billion in equity and $6.9 billion in total AUM, including leverage.

現在轉向財富管道，我們繼續看到擴展業務的巨大機會。去年，我們產品的需求超出了我們對這一年的雄心勃勃的預期。全年，我們籌集了超過 100 億美元的股本資金和超過 180 億美元的總資產管理規模（包括基金槓桿）。每個季度都帶來了成長勢頭，最終在第四季度達到了最高的季度流入量，籌集了 31 億美元的股權和 69 億美元的總 AUM（包括槓桿）。

Our inflows approximately tripled year over year, and we estimate our market share increased to nearly 10%, placing us as a top three manager among our listed peers according to third-party industry data. Our momentum has continued in January with over $1 billion in equity inflows. Industry-wide, alternative capital raised in the wealth channel doubled last year, yet we believe that we're still in the early stages of growth.

我們的資金流入量年增了約兩倍，我們估計我們的市佔率增加到了近 10%，根據第三方行業數據，我們在上市同業中位列前三名。我們的勢頭在一月份持續維持，股權流入超過 10 億美元。就整個產業而言，財富管道籌集的另類資本去年翻了一番，但我們認為我們仍處於成長的早期階段。

High net worth individuals' investable assets experienced strong growth last year, in large part due to overweight public market exposure. However, their average allocation to alternatives remained at just 3% to 4%. And we believe that this allocation will continue to increase through education, product innovation, and expanding distribution segments like model portfolios and 401(k) plans.

去年，高淨值人士的可投資資產強勁成長，很大程度上得益於超重的公開市場投資。然而，他們對另類投資的平均分配比例仍僅為 3% 至 4%。我們相信，透過教育、產品創新以及擴大模型投資組合和 401（k）計劃等分銷管道，這種分配將繼續增加。

We also expect the mass affluent market and new geographies such as Japan, Canada, and Latin America to play a key role in growing the addressable universe for wealth. The competitive landscape is intensifying but we're confident in our competitive moat, which is supported by our products, platform, performance track record, distribution scale, and key relationships.

我們也預期大眾富裕市場和日本、加拿大和拉丁美洲等新興地區將在擴大財富目標範圍方面發揮關鍵作用。競爭格局正在加劇，但我們對我們的競爭優勢充滿信心，這得益於我們的產品、平台、業績記錄、分銷規模和關鍵關係。

Our near-term priorities in the channel include expanding our existing funds across our current partnerships, establishing new strategic partnerships across the RIA, family office, and IBD channels and further broadening our distribution footprint internationally. In 2025, our objective is to add each of our wealth products to new key distribution platforms, including wirehouses and global private banks. Notably, in the RIA and single-family office channel, we raised $1.3 billion last year, representing 2.8x growth from the year prior, and we expect this momentum to continue throughout 2025.

我們在該管道的近期重點包括透過現有合作夥伴關係擴大現有基金，透過 RIA、家族辦公室和 IBD 管道建立新的策略合作夥伴關係，並進一步擴大我們的國際分銷範圍。2025 年，我們的目標是將我們的每款財富產品添加到新的關鍵分銷平台，包括大型證券公司和全球私人銀行。值得注意的是，在 RIA 和單一家族辦公室管道，我們去年籌集了 13 億美元，比前一年增長了 2.8 倍，我們預計這一勢頭將持續到 2025 年。

Our international business remains a significant and sustainable driver of growth with 36% of last year's capital flows coming from Europe and Asia as compared to just 7% in 2023. In the first half of 2025, we anticipate taking in monthly subscriptions for our newest semi-liquid solution, a core infrastructure vehicle, and a sports, media and entertainment vehicle which would be intended to broaden investor access to the significant and growing market opportunity.

我們的國際業務仍然是重要且永續的成長動力，去年 36% 的資本流動來自歐洲和亞洲，而 2023 年這一比例僅為 7%。2025 年上半年，我們預計將吸收最新的半流動性解決方案、核心基礎設施工具以及體育、媒體和娛樂工具的月度訂閱，旨在擴大投資者獲得巨大且不斷增長的市場機會的管道。

We plan to continue delivering a suite of purpose-built solutions that showcase the best of Ares' private market capabilities. We now have over $39 billion in AUM across eight semi-liquid products, and we are well on our way to the $100 billion target that we outlined at our Investor Day last year. Including our publicly traded and other vehicles in the retail channel, we're already approaching $100 billion of AUM.

我們計劃繼續提供一套專用解決方案，以展示 Ares 的最佳私人市場能力。我們目前擁有 8 種半流動性產品的資產管理規模超過 390 億美元，並且正在順利實現去年投資者日提出的 1,000 億美元的目標。包括我們的上市公司和零售通路中的其他投資工具在內，我們的資產管理規模已接近 1,000 億美元。

We also achieved a significant milestone for our affiliated insurance platform. Aspida recently announced raising over $2.3 billion in equity commitments with more than 75% coming from third-party investors. Aspida has over $20 billion in total assets and we believe that it has the capital required to reach $50 billion in assets by the end of 2028, which is the target that we outlined at our Investor Day.

我們的附屬保險平台也取得了重要的里程碑。Aspida 最近宣布籌集超過 23 億美元的股權承諾，其中 75% 以上來自第三方投資者。Aspida 的總資產超過 200 億美元，我們相信它擁有在 2028 年底達到 500 億美元資產所需的資本，這是我們在投資者日提出的目標。

In 2024, Aspida's primary fixed annuity volumes nearly doubled to more than $3.8 billion, significantly outpacing the 7% growth in fixed annuity sales for the industry. Including reinsurance flows, Aspida originated over $6 billion in new premiums for the year. With strong business momentum, a robust capital base and reinvested earnings, Aspida is well positioned to meet the growing demand for retirement products and related reinsurance solutions.

2024 年，Aspida 的主要固定年金金額幾乎翻了一番，達到 38 億美元以上，大大超過該行業固定年金銷售額 7% 的成長率。如果算上再保險流，Aspida 今年的新保費收入超過 60 億美元。憑藉強勁的業務發展勢頭、雄厚的資本基礎和再投資收益，Aspida 完全有能力滿足日益增長的退休產品和相關再保險解決方案的需求。

Turning to our fundraising goals for the year ahead, we expect another good fundraising year in 2025. While we will not have our two largest campaign funds in the market, we expect fundraising could be only modestly lower than our record in 2024. We expect to have 19 institutional commingled funds plus another 18 continuously offered institutional and retail products actively raising capital throughout the year, excluding new funds from the GCP International acquisition.

談到我們未來一年的募款目標，我們預計 2025 年將是另一個籌款旺年。雖然我們不會擁有市場上最大的兩個競選基金，但我們預計籌款額可能僅略低於 2024 年的紀錄。我們預計，全年將有 19 檔機構混合基金和另外 18 檔持續發行的機構和零售產品積極籌募資金（不包括收購 GCP International 而產生的新基金）。

Regarding GCP International, we expect that the transaction will close in the current quarter, and we remain on track with our previously communicated financial plans for the transaction. Once we close, we believe that we will be in a favorable fundraising position with several funds in Japan, the US, and Europe coming to market. For example, this year, we expect to launch the fifth vintage of the logistics development fund in Japan, which raised approximately $2.7 billion converted at current exchange rates in the previous vintage, and the second US self-storage fund, which raised $1.5 billion in a previous vintage.

關於 GCP International，我們預計交易將在本季度完成，並且我們仍按先前傳達的交易財務計劃進行。一旦完成，我們相信我們將處於有利的籌資地位，日本、美國和歐洲的多支基金將進入市場。例如，今年我們預計將推出日本物流發展基金的第五期，該基金在上一期按當前匯率折算籌集了約 27 億美元，以及美國自助倉儲基金的第二期，該基金在上一期籌集了 15 億美元。

In addition, GCP's data center business is seeing significant momentum, and we expect the first closings for its first Japanese data center development vehicle and the first European data center development vehicle to occur during the first half of this year as both are experiencing strong demand. We anticipate the total final equity commitments across these two funds to be approximately $4 billion at current exchange rates. I'm excited about the great people we're adding to our team and the combined power of our two platforms.

此外，GCP 的資料中心業務發展勢頭強勁，我們預計其首個日本資料中心開發平台和首個歐洲資料中心開發平台將在今年上半年首次關閉，因為這兩個平台的需求都很強勁。我們預計，以當前匯率計算，這兩個基金的最終股權承諾總額約為 40 億美元。我對我們團隊中優秀人才的加入以及我們兩個平台的綜合實力感到非常興奮。

And lastly, before I turn the call over to Jarrod, I just wanted to acknowledge the devastating wildfires that impacted the Los Angeles community, including the loss and disruption for many of our employees and families in our L.A. office. We're providing significant support and resources to our Ares team members who've been most significantly impacted. We're supporting local relief efforts through an employee giving campaign with matching contributions, and we're providing long-term support for the region through the Ares Charitable Foundation. Our thoughts are with our colleagues and the people of L.A., and we'll continue to support those affected as the situation evolves.

最後，在我將電話轉給賈羅德之前，我想先說一下毀滅性的山火給洛杉磯社區帶來的影響，包括我們洛杉磯辦事處的許多員工和家庭所遭受的損失和困擾。我們正在為受影響最嚴重的 Ares 團隊成員提供重要支援和資源。我們透過員工捐贈活動和等額捐款來支持當地的救援工作，並透過阿瑞斯慈善基金會為該地區提供長期支持。我們與我們的同事和洛杉磯人民同在，隨著事態的發展，我們將繼續為受影響的人們提供支持。

And now I'm going to turn the call over to Jarrod for his comments on our financial results and outlook. Jarrod, over to you.

現在我將把電話轉給賈羅德，請他對我們的財務表現和前景發表評論。賈羅德，交給你了。

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝，麥克。大家早安。

As Mike stated, 2024 was a very good year for Ares. We generated record levels of gross fundraising and deployment, which led to continued double-digit growth in our key metrics of AUM, dry powder, fee-related earnings, realized income and many others. We also enhanced our future growth prospects by expanding our investment strategies and capabilities, both organically through targeted staffing additions to our origination teams, and inorganically with the pending acquisition of GCP International and completed acquisition of Walton Street Mexico.

正如 Mike 所說，2024 年對 Ares 來說是非常好的一年。我們的總籌款和部署達到了創紀錄的水平，這使得我們的 AUM、乾火藥、費用相關收益、已實現收入等許多關鍵指標繼續實現兩位數增長。我們也透過擴大投資策略和能力來增強未來的成長前景，方式包括透過有針對性地增加我們的發起團隊的員工，以及透過即將收購 GCP International 和完成對 Walton Street Mexico 的收購來非自然地擴大我們的投資策略和能力。

We entered 2025 with a great deal of optimism about the continued success of our business. We are entering an economic and market environment that we expect will be more active and one that we believe will be more conducive to deployment activity for more of our investment strategies.

我們對 2025 年的業務持續成功充滿信心。我們正在進入一個預期更加活躍的經濟和市場環境，我們相信這將更有利於我們更多投資策略的部署活動。

Turning to our quarterly results. Our management fees were a record $781 million. Fourth-quarter fee-related performance revenues totaled $162 million, in line with our quarterly targeted range. For the full year, FRPR increased 28% versus the prior period as we saw increased contributions from our alternative credit and secondaries products.

談談我們的季度業績。我們的管理費達到了創紀錄的7.81億美元。第四季費用相關業績收入總計 1.62 億美元，與我們的季度目標範圍一致。就全年而言，由於我們看到替代信貸和二級市場的貢獻增加，FRPR 較上期增加了 28%。

In 2025, we expect additional growth in AUM from our direct lending, alternative credit, and secondary funds to generate higher overall FRPR, yet growth could be modest as we factor in a full-year run rate of lower base interest rates in our direct lending SMAs. We are currently not estimating any FRPR from our real estate group in 2025, but 2026 could be in play assuming a continued recovery in the real estate market.

到 2025 年，我們預計直接貸款、替代信貸和二級市場基金的 AUM 將進一步增長，從而產生更高的整體 FRPR，但由於我們考慮到直接貸款 SMA 中全年較低的基準利率，因此增長可能會比較溫和。目前，我們尚未估計 2025 年我們房地產集團的 FRPR 水平，但假設房地產市場持續復甦，2026 年我們可能會達到 FRPR 水平。

Fee-related earnings for the full year increased 17% over the prior period with record FRE in Q4 of $396 million. For the quarter, both compensation and G&A expenses came in slightly below our initial expectations, resulting in FRE margin of 40.9%, which was ahead of our 40% target from last quarter's call. Supplemental distribution expenses associated with our wealth management products totaled $13.6 million.

全年費用相關收益較上期成長 17%，第四季費用相關收益創下 3.96 億美元的新高。本季度，薪資和一般及行政費用均略低於我們最初的預期，導致 FRE 利潤率為 40.9%，高於我們上一季預測的 40% 的目標。與我們的理財產品相關的補充分銷費用總計 1,360 萬美元。

Although our full-year FRE margin increased by 60 basis points to 41.5%, the increase in supplemental distribution fees from $16.7 million in 2023 to $51.2 million in 2024 created a drag on our year-over-year margin growth. However, these fees are associated with our significant momentum, raising long-dated perpetual capital in the wealth channel that will generate meaningful base management fees and Part I fees in the years to come.

儘管我們的全年 FRE 利潤率增加了 60 個基點至 41.5%，但補充分銷費用從 2023 年的 1,670 萬美元增加到 2024 年的 5,120 萬美元，拖累了我們的同比利潤率增長。然而，這些費用與我們龐大的發展勢頭相關，在財富管道中增加長期永久資本，這將在未來幾年產生有意義的基礎管理費和第一部分費用。

With $39 billion in AUM across our wealth management products and increasing fundraising momentum into 2025, we expect total management fees from these funds to increase more than 65% year over year to a range of $500 million to $550 million. While we expect distribution expenses to increase this year, given our momentum, these expenses are expected to become less impactful to our results against a growing level of management fees from wealth products in 2025 and beyond.

我們的財富管理產品的資產管理規模達到 390 億美元，到 2025 年融資勢頭強勁，我們預計這些基金的總管理費將年增 65% 以上，達到 5 億至 5.5 億美元。儘管我們預計今年分銷費用會增加，但考慮到我們的發展勢頭，與 2025 年及以後財富產品的管理費水平不斷增長相比，這些費用預計對我們的業績的影響會減小。

Our realization activity increased in the fourth quarter with net realized performance income totaling $89.3 million. For the full year, we realized $148.9 million of net performance income, of which $94.5 million or 63% came from our European style funds. Even with the realizations recognized during the year, our net accrued performance income on an unconsolidated basis rose by approximately $86 million or 10% to $1 billion at year-end, with approximately $856 million or 85% in European style funds.

我們的實現活動在第四季有所增加，淨實現業績收入總計 8,930 萬美元。全年我們實現淨業績收入1.489億美元，其中9,450萬美元（63%）來自我們的歐式風格基金。即使考慮到年內確認的變現金額，我們在非合併基礎上的淨應計業績收入在年底仍增加了約 8,600 萬美元或 10%，達到 10 億美元，其中約 8.56 億美元或 85% 為歐式風格基金。

We continue to be very excited about a meaningful ramp in our net realized performance income as our growing amount of European style funds reach their maturities and as initial vintages of certain US credit campaign funds enter their waterfall payments. As we've outlined in the past, we look at our European style net realized performance income across a two-year window, where we have a higher degree of visibility of realized income in these funds.

隨著我們越來越多的歐式基金達到其到期日以及某些美國信貸活動基金的首批年份開始其瀑布式支付，我們繼續對我們的淨實現業績收入的有意義增長感到非常興奮。正如我們過去所概述的，我們考察的是兩年期間的歐式淨實現業績收入，這些基金的實現收入具有更高的可見度。

The amount that we could receive over both the longer term and the next two years is essentially unchanged from the applicable amounts we outlined at our Investor Day presentation last year. For 2025, we continue to expect our European style net realized performance income to more than double to a range of $225 million to $275 million, and we expect to considerably grow these amounts again in 2026. We plan to keep you updated as we progress throughout the year.

我們在長期和未來兩年內可以獲得的金額與我們去年投資者日演示中概述的適用金額基本沒有變化。到 2025 年，我們繼續預計我們的歐式淨實現業績收入將增長一倍以上，達到 2.25 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間，並且我們預計 2026 年這一數額將再次大幅增長。我們計劃在全年進度中向您通報最新進展。

Realized income for the fourth quarter totaled a record $476 million, and for the full year, it exceeded $1.4 billion, a 16% increase from 2023. For the full year 2024, our effective tax rate on our realized income was 11.7%. Our tax rate was higher in the fourth quarter due to a greater amount of net realized performance income, which generally has fewer deductions associated with it than our FRE. For 2025, we anticipated an effective tax rate on our realized income to be in the range of 11% to 15%.

第四季實現營收總計創紀錄的 4.76 億美元，全年營收超過 14 億美元，較 2023 年成長 16%。2024 年全年，我們實現收入的有效稅率為 11.7%。我們第四季的稅率較高，是因為淨實現業績收入較多，而淨實現業績收入相關的扣除額通常比我們的常規業績收入要少。到 2025 年，我們預計實現收入的實際稅率將在 11% 至 15% 之間。

As of year-end, our AUM totaled over $484 billion, up over 15% compared to the previous year and was driven almost entirely by organic growth. Our fee-paying AUM totaled nearly $293 billion at year-end, an increase of nearly 12% from year-end 2023. As you can see in the presentation that accompanies our earnings release, our portfolio has continued to perform very well. For the full year, we experienced double-digit returns in our US and Europe Direct Lending strategies as well as in our alternative credit, opportunistic credit, and APAC credit strategies.

截至年底，我們的 AUM 總額超過 4,840 億美元，比上年增長超過 15%，幾乎完全由有機成長推動。截至年底，我們的付費 AUM 總額接近 2,930 億美元，較 2023 年底成長近 12%。正如您在我們的收益報告中所看到的，我們的投資組合繼續表現良好。全年而言，我們的美國和歐洲直接貸款策略以及替代信貸、機會性信貸和亞太信貸策略均實現了兩位數的回報。

Credit quality underlying our US and European direct lending portfolios remained strong and stable. In our US direct lending portfolio, our company has generated year-over-year EBITDA growth of 10.6% and interest coverage continues to improve. ARCC reported non-accruals this morning of 1.7%, which remains well below our long-term average of 2.8% since the GFC.

我們在美國和歐洲直接貸款組合中的信用品質依然強勁而穩定。在我們的美國直接貸款組合中，我們公司的 EBITDA 年成長 10.6%，利息覆蓋率持續改善。ARCC 今早報告的未計利息為 1.7%，仍遠低於全球金融危機以來的長期平均 2.8%。

In real estate, the recovery of many asset class values is clearly underway. Our North American real estate equity composites had a fourth consecutive quarter of positive performance and ended the year up nearly 8% on a gross basis. Our European real estate equity composite posted the second quarter in a row of positive performance. Our infrastructure debt composite returns also continue to perform very well, up 11.7% on a gross basis for the full year.

在房地產領域，許多資產類別的價值顯然正在復甦。我們的北美房地產股票綜合指數連續第四個季度表現良好，年底整體上漲近 8%。我們的歐洲房地產股票綜合指數連續第二季表現良好。我們的基礎設施債務綜合回報率也持續表現良好，全年總回報率上漲了 11.7%。

Within Private Equity, our most recent vintage fund, ACOF VI is a top quartile fund in its vintage, and it generated a strong time-weighted gross return of 18.9% in 2024. Our ACOF composite portfolio companies experienced nearly 14% year-over-year organic growth in EBITDA in the fourth quarter. As I outlined at the beginning of my remarks, we're well positioned for strong growth in 2025. It is in line with the financial targets we highlighted at our Investor Day. This does not account for any impact from the GCP International acquisition, which we anticipate will be an exciting addition to the long-term growth of our business.

在我們最新的私募股權基金中，ACOF VI 是同類基金中排名前四分位的基金，並且在 2024 年實現了 18.9% 的強勁時間加權總回報。我們的 ACOF 綜合投資組合公司第四季的 EBITDA 年比有機成長近 14%。正如我在演講開頭所概述的那樣，我們已為 2025 年實現強勁增長做好了準備。這與我們在投資者日強調的財務目標一致。這還沒有考慮到 GCP International 收購的影響，我們預計這將對我們業務的長期成長產生令人興奮的促進作用。

Finally, at the beginning of each year, we aim to set a fixed quarterly dividend for the coming year. Based on the significant visibility we have towards our FRE growth, we've elected to increase our dividend to $1.12, up 20% from last year. High-quality AUM across the business underpins our stable and growing FRE base, which continues to support our dividend. Our confidence in our European style net realized performance income also enhances our ability to grow our annual dividend 20%-plus each year.

最後，在每年年初，我們都計劃為來年設定固定的季度股利。基於我們對 FRE 成長的顯著預期，我們決定將股息提高至 1.12 美元，比去年增長 20%。整個業務的高品質 AUM 支撐了我們穩定且不斷增長的 FRE 基礎，並繼續支持我們的股息。我們對歐式淨實現業績收入的信心也增強了我們每年增加20%以上的年度股利的能力。

I'll now turn the call back over to Mike for his concluding remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給麥克，請他作最後發言。

Great. Thanks, Jarrod.

偉大的。謝謝，賈羅德。

We're excited about the opportunities ahead for 2025. We're entering the year with a record amount of dry powder and an enhanced set of capabilities and solutions to address the diverse needs of our global client base. We expect transaction activity to expand year over year, and the new administration could provide some tailwinds for deployment, especially if an improved regulatory and antitrust environment enables more business growth and M&A activity in the market.

我們對 2025 年未來的機會感到興奮。進入新的一年，我們擁有創紀錄的庫存量以及增強的能力和解決方案，可以滿足全球客戶群的不同需求。我們預計交易活動將逐年擴大，新政府可能會為部署提供一些推動力，特別是如果監管和反壟斷環境的改善能夠促進市場上的業務成長和併購活動。

Our growth is underpinned by generating differentiated fund performance for our investors, which is driven by our broad direct origination capability, people, institutional processes, and our strong culture. And to that end, I'm just so proud and grateful for the hard work and dedication of our employees around the globe. I'm also deeply appreciative of our investors' continuing support for our company.

我們的成長以給投資者創造差異化的基金績效為基礎，而這得益於我們廣泛的直接發起能力、人才、機構流程和強大的文化。為此，我為我們全球員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神感到非常自豪和感激。我也非常感謝我們的投資者對我們公司的持續支持。

And with that, operator, I think we can now open up the line for questions.

接線員，我想我們現在可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Craig Siegenthaler, Bank of America.

（操作員指示） Craig Siegenthaler，美國銀行。

Kipp and Blair, if you're on the call, congrats on the promotions.

基普和布萊爾，如果你們在通話中，恭喜你們晉升。

They're here, and thank you.

他們來了，謝謝你們。

So I have a long-term expense question. G&A expenses rose by more than 20% in 2024, and I know there's some noise in there like Crescent Point in 4Q '23 that actually helped the comp but also you had a new, New York City lease coming in this year. So we wanted your high-level thoughts on the go-forward core growth rate of G&A. And also how are supplemental distribution fees in the wealth channel a factor? And then you're also closing GCP, I think this quarter, as you said. So what will be the near-term lift from that?

所以我有一個長期開支問題。2024 年，一般及行政費用增加了 20% 以上，我知道其中存在一些噪音，例如 23 年第四季的 Crescent Point，這實際上對公司有幫助，但今年你還有一份新的紐約市租約。因此，我們希望了解您對未來 G&A 核心成長率的整體看法。財富管道中的補充分配費用又是如何運作的？正如您所說，我認為您也將在本季度關閉 GCP。那麼短期內能帶來什麼提升呢？

Sure. Thanks, Craig.

當然。謝謝，克雷格。

I would say that first off, going through the story of G&A this year, supplemental distribution fees are really the major driver of the changes year over year as those increased pretty dramatically up to about $50 million for the full year or about 50 basis points of what we raised during the year of that $10.8 billion that we raised in that channel. Now we do expect to continue to raise more in that channel and for those amounts to increase, so I would expect that those expenses would increase as well.

我想說，首先，回顧今年的一般及行政費用情況，補充分銷費用確實是逐年變化的主要驅動力，因為這些費用全年大幅增加至約 5,000 萬美元，或占我們全年透過該管道籌集的 108 億美元資金的約 50 個基點。現在我們確實希望繼續透過該管道籌集更多資金，並且資金金額也會增加，因此我預計這些費用也會增加。

However, the one thing I'd point out is as we open new channels of distribution, we're less reliant on those channels that charge these upfront or rev share fees. So if you look at that 50 basis points for the full year, it was actually only 43 basis points of the capital raised in the fourth quarter. So we will still see some growth in that, and that's growth that's highly correlated to fundraising.

然而，我想指出的一點是，當我們開闢新的分銷管道時，我們對收取預付費用或收入分成費用的管道的依賴就會減少。因此，如果您看全年的 50 個基點，實際上只有第四季度籌集的資本為 43 個基點。因此，我們仍會看到一些成長，而且這種成長與籌款高度相關。

We also have marketing events and other sales events from the institutional channel, which you'll also see correlated more to our fundraising than you will towards anything else. The remaining part of that is the occupancy expenses that you mentioned, which are probably the largest driver of our G&A expenses. As you noted, we did just bring online a couple of new floors here in New York due to the expansion of our headcount. We also have our new headquarters in Los Angeles, and we're still carrying some of our old headquarters, so that will eventually roll off towards either the end of next year or early in 2027, meaning that you'll see L.A. expenses go down while New York will increase over the next -- that five-year period.

我們也透過機構管道舉辦行銷活動和其他銷售活動，您會發現這些活動與我們的籌款活動比其他任何事情都更相關。剩下的部分就是您提到的入住費用，這可能是我們一般行政費用 (G&A) 費用最大的驅動因素。正如您所說，由於員工人數的增加，我們剛剛在紐約開設了幾層新樓層。我們在洛杉磯也有新的總部，而且還保留了部分舊總部，所以這些總部最終將在明年年底或 2027 年初遷出，這意味著在接下來的五年裡，洛杉磯的開支會下降，而紐約的開支會增加。

Those expenses, along with expenses like technology and items of that nature are much more correlated to our headcount. So as you see our headcount grow, you will see that G&A expense grow. Now as we've been able to show scale, we would look to revenues growing at a higher percentage than our both headcount and, therefore, those G&A expenses.

這些費用以及技術和類似項目的費用與我們的員工人數更相關。因此，當您看到我們的員工人數成長時，您會看到 G&A 費用也在增加。現在我們已經能夠展示規模，我們希望收入成長率高於我們的員工人數成長率，因此，一般及行政費用成長率也高於這些費用。

And then maybe the last point to bring in is the GCP acquisition, which will bring in some new expenses in G&A. However, we talked about it in our call when we announced the acquisition that their margins were relatively similar to the margins that we see in our current real estate business, excluding the impact of data centers, which right now is we mapped out at about $20 million FRE drag as we wait for funds to launch out of that space, which we expect will be in the near term, but we'll carry that essentially expense load until you start to see those data centers launched off the platform.

也許最後一點是 GCP 收購，這將帶來一些新的 G&A 費用。然而，我們在宣布收購時在電話會議上談到了這一點，他們的利潤率與我們目前房地產業務的利潤率相對相似，不包括數據中心的影響，目前我們預計數據中心的 FRE 拖累約為 2000 萬美元，因為我們正在等待資金從該領域啟動，我們預計這將在短期內發生，但我們將承擔這筆基本費用，直到您開始看到這些數據中心。

Just as my follow-up for Mike. Mike, given your change in responsibilities now with the elevation of Kipp and Blair, it sounds like you're going to be more focused. So curious, what are the two or three biggest strategic initiatives that you plan to focus on now?

正如我對麥克的跟進。麥克，隨著基普和布萊爾的升職，你的職責也發生了變化，聽起來你會更專注。很好奇，您現在計劃重點關注的兩三個最大的策略舉措是什麼？

Sure. Thanks, Craig. So let me maybe rephrase your question in two ways.

當然。謝謝，克雷格。因此，讓我以兩種方式重新表達你的問題。

I am not changing my responsibilities. Kipp has been my friend and partner for 35 years. Blair, same, almost 30 years. I view this as an expansion of the management capacity and strategic capacity of the enterprise. And I think we're really blessed and privileged that we have such a deep bench of people that we can do things like this while we're all still young and energized and focused.

我不會改變我的職責。基普 (Kipp) 是我的朋友和夥伴，已經 35 年了。布萊爾，同樣，快 30 年了。我把這看作是企業管理能力和策略能力的擴展。我認為我們真的很幸運，很榮幸能有如此強大的人才隊伍，讓我們能夠在我們還年輕、精力充沛、注意力集中的時候做這樣的事情。

So really, I've asked Kipp and Blair to work with me on the highest impact growth opportunities, which right now are get the integration of GCP right and position it for growth. As we've talked about, there's a significant opportunity to bring together our infrastructure and real assets platform to capitalize on the opportunity in digital infra and new economy real estate. We have the opportunity, given our leadership position in corporate credit, to continue to expand our market share in real estate and infrastructure lending.

所以實際上，我已經要求 Kipp 和 Blair 與我一起努力尋找最具影響力的成長機會，目前這些機會就是正確整合 GCP 並為其成長做好準備。正如我們所討論的，這是一個重大機遇，可以將我們的基礎設施和實體資產平台結合起來，以利用數位基礎設施和新經濟房地產領域的機會。鑑於我們在企業信貸領域的領導地位，我們有機會繼續擴大我們在房地產和基礎設施貸款領域的市場份額。

And obviously, Kipp and Blair have a significant amount of experience and credibility in the private credit market to lend their expertise as we continue to scale into those market opportunities. As you know, Craig, we have a differentiated approach to insurance but our insurance capability continues to grow, our insurance partnerships continue to grow.

顯然，基普和布萊爾在私人信貸市場擁有豐富的經驗和信譽，在我們繼續擴大這些市場機會的過程中可以發揮他們的專業知識。正如克雷格您所知，我們對保險採取了差異化的方法，但我們的保險能力不斷增長，我們的保險合作夥伴關係也在增長。

I think there's a big opportunity to continue to look at ways to exploit our credit capabilities alongside Aspida. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we have about 255 partners here at Ares out of 3,200 employees. This is a very, very deep bench and one of the things that we've always been focused on. And I just think about my own journey here as we are constantly working on mentoring and developing the next generation of leaders.

我認為，我們有很大機會繼續尋找方法與 Aspida 一起充分發揮我們的信貸能力。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，Ares 擁有 3,200 名員工，其中約有 255 名合夥人。這是一個非常非常深厚的人才隊伍，也是我們一直在關注的事情之一。我只是想想我自己在這裡的旅程，因為我們一直致力於指導和培養下一代領導者。

And I can't think of two better people to help me do that than Blair and Kipp. So I've always been focused, Craig, and I'm not changing my priorities, but I think given the amount of opportunity that we have around the globe, it's now time to kind of fill those seats and just extend our capacity.

我想不出還有誰比布萊爾和基普更能幫助我做到這一點。所以克雷格，我一直很專注，我不會改變我的優先事項，但我認為，考慮到我們在全球範圍內擁有的機會，現在是時候填補這些席位並擴大我們的容量了。

Kyle Voigt, KBW.

凱爾·沃格特（Kyle Voigt），KBW。

Maybe I could just get an update regarding M&A appetite with the GCP deal now set to close in the first quarter. Just wondering if we can get an update on how you feel about the state of your pro forma business mix, where you sit strategically from an asset class in geographical perspective? And do you still feel like there's potential gaps to fill in the product offering or internationally?

也許我可以了解一下有關併購意願的最新消息，GCP 交易目前定於第一季完成。只是想知道我們是否可以了解您對您的預期業務組合狀況的看法，從地理角度來看，您在資產類別中的策略位置如何？您是否仍覺得在產品供應或國際方面有待填補的潛在空白？

Yes, thanks for the question. As we've said in the past, with each successive acquisition that we've made, I think the bar for making acquisitions gets higher and higher. And that's really just a function of broadening out of our capability set and the organizational capacity that we have to launch and support organic growth initiatives.

是的，謝謝你的提問。正如我們過去所說的那樣，我認為，隨著我們每次收購的進行，收購的門檻會越來越高。這實際上只是擴大我們的能力集和組織能力的一個功能，我們必須啟動和支持有機成長計劃。

We have laid out as a strategic objective for the company to have full capital structure capabilities, meaning everything from control equity through traded debt securities in each of corporate, real estate, and infrastructure and in each of the US, Europe, and Asia. So if you were to kind of fill out that game board, there are very few capabilities of consequence in the global alternative space that we don't already have here. So I don't want to say that we're not going to do M&A because it's been a really nice driver of growth here. It's represented probably 20% to 25% of our growth.

我們為公司製定的策略目標是擁有全面的資本結構能力，包括從控制股權到美國、歐洲和亞洲的企業、房地產和基礎設施領域的交易債務證券等一切。因此，如果你要填寫遊戲板，你會發現在全球替代空間中，我們尚未具備的重要能力非常少。所以我不想說我們不會進行併購，因為它確實是一個推動我們成長的良好動力。這可能占我們成長的20%到25%。

And as you've seen with things like Black Creek and the growth in Wealth or the recent acceleration of growth in the secondaries platform, I think we have a really good playbook for accretive acquisitions and then strategic acceleration of revenue synergies post-acquisition. So we're constantly looking and thinking, and we're being both opportunistic and reactive to what the market shows us, but we have lots of organic growth ahead of us, and I think the near-term focus is going to be to exploit those opportunities versus M&A.

正如您所看到的，Black Creek 和 Wealth 的成長，或二級平台近期的成長加速，我認為我們有一個非常好的劇本，可以進行增值收購，然後在收購後策略性地加速收入協同效應。因此，我們一直在觀察和思考，我們對市場展示給我們的東西既抓住機會又做出反應，但我們面前有大量的有機增長，我認為近期的重點是利用這些機會，而不是併購。

I appreciate that. And just for my follow-up, just a question on the sequential growth in credit fee-paying AUM. I know you've noted on prior calls that that gross to net deployment ratio and expecting that to improve. I think you noted maybe an expected gradual improvement in the environment. I guess anything that you can give us in terms of helping us out with the pipeline that you're seeing, how that's going to progress in terms of that gross to net deployment ratio into the first half of the year, and how you expect it to kind of unfold through 2025 versus where you're at in 4Q?

我很感激。我的後續問題是關於信貸付費 AUM 的連續成長。我知道您在先前的電話會議中已經注意到了總部署與淨部署的比率，並預計這一比率將會提高。我想您可能已經注意到了預期的環境將逐步改善。我想您可以為我們提供任何幫助，以幫助我們了解您所看到的管道，就今年上半年的總部署與淨部署比率而言，它將如何發展，以及您預計到 2025 年它將如何發展，與第四季度的情況相比如何？

Yes, it's still early. Obviously, we had a very strong deployment quarter in Q4. January is seasonally slow. I think we've talked about this before, we generally see lower deployment in Q1 and Q3 and stronger deployment in Q2 and Q4 just based on the rhythms of the business.

是的，還早。顯然，我們在第四季的部署非常強勁。一月是季節性淡季。我想我們之前已經談論過這個問題，根據業務節奏，我們通常會看到第一季和第三季的部署較低，而第二季和第四季的部署較強。

But the private credit portfolio is generally, across the board, I would say, are increasing in activity. I think that's just again a function of the market backdrop, particularly in the US markets, I think, that there's a lot of pent-up demand to transact. And even though we believe that rates are going to be higher for longer, I think we now have stability in rates that's bringing capital off the sidelines in private credit and real estate in a way that we didn't see particularly in the first half of last year.

但我認為私人信貸組合的活躍度總體上都在增加。我認為這只是市場背景的一個作用，特別是在美國市場，我認為存在著大量被壓抑的交易需求。儘管我們認為利率將在較長時間內維持高位，但我認為現在利率已經穩定，這將吸引資本進入私人信貸和房地產領域，而這種情況在去年上半年尤其罕見。

I do want to reiterate what we said in the prepared remarks, which is that we are uniquely positioned. When you look at our deployment relative to the transaction volumes in the market, if you look at our year-over-year deployment, we were up close to 60%, $107 billion compared to $68 billion. Global M&A volumes are only up 10%. And so I think it speaks volumes to, a, the diversity of the strategies that we have and the solutions that we can bring into the different markets, but it also speaks to the value of the incumbent relationships that exist within the portfolio.

我確實想重申我們在準備好的發言中所說的話，那就是我們的地位是獨一無二的。當您查看我們相對於市場交易量的部署時，如果您查看我們的同比部署，我們會發現我們的部署增長了近 60%，即 1070 億美元，而去年同期為 680 億美元。全球併購量僅成長10%。所以我認為這不僅充分說明了我們所擁有的策略和我們可以帶入不同市場的解決方案的多樣性，也說明了投資組合中現有關係的價值。

And as we've talked about before, depending on the period that we're looking at in our private credit book, roughly two-thirds of our deployment last year was coming from incumbent sponsor relationships, and roughly half was coming from incumbent portfolio company relationships. So while we obviously are beneficiaries when the M&A activity picks up, I do want to highlight that deployment to keep pace with our FRE growth is not dependent on M&A and, in some circumstances, slower transaction volumes actually increases the attractiveness of some of the liquidity solutions that we're able to provide.

正如我們之前所討論的，根據我們在私人信用帳簿中查看的時期，去年大約三分之二的部署來自現任贊助商關係，大約一半來自現任投資組合公司關係。因此，雖然我們顯然是併購活動回升的受益者，但我想強調的是，與我們的 FRE 成長保持同步的部署並不依賴併購，而且在某些情況下，交易量的放緩實際上增加了我們能夠提供的一些流動性解決方案的吸引力。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

So maybe just to start off with a question on fundraising. The momentum was quite strong to close out the year. Given the tough fundraising comp in '24, much lower expected contribution from flagships in '25, the modest year-on-year decline was admittedly better than we were anticipating that you alluded to, Mike. So I was hoping you could drill down into the drivers of their non-flagship fundraising in '25. And what contribution you're contemplating from flagships this year that's supporting that more resilient fundraising outcome?

因此也許我們先來問一個關於募款的問題。今年年末的勢頭相當強勁。考慮到 24 年融資困難，25 年旗艦店的預期貢獻要低得多，同比小幅下降無疑比您提到的我們預期的要好，邁克。所以我希望你能深入了解他們在'25年非旗艦籌款的驅動因素。您考慮今年從旗艦店中做出哪些貢獻來支持更具彈性的籌款結果？

Yes. Again, it's early, but as we said, we have 18 or so commingled funds that are in the market in 2025 and a similar number in open-ended and perpetual continuous offer funds. So as we tried to articulate in the prepared remarks, what we would call the floor for fundraising continues to elevate. And while the campaign funds are still a meaningful contributor to our fundraising growth, we now have so many other levers to pull that are more consistent in the way that capital flows into the platform.

是的。再說一次，現在還為時過早，但正如我們所說，到 2025 年，我們將有 18 只左右的混合基金進入市場，開放式和永久性連續報價基金的數量也將類似。因此，正如我們在準備好的發言中試圖表達的那樣，我們所謂的籌款底線正在不斷提高。雖然競選資金仍然對我們的籌款成長具有重大貢獻，但我們現在有許多其他槓桿可以利用，這些槓桿可以讓資金更一致地流入平台。

When you look at some of the meaningful flagship campaign funds, we're in the market with our opportunistic credit fund, which has very significant momentum. We are in the market with our second sports, media, and entertainment vehicle, which we talked about. We are very active on a number of our core real estate equity and debt strategies. And given the falling out of that market, we're seeing good momentum there. We're in the market with our infrastructure debt strategies and so on and so forth.

當你看到一些有意義的旗艦競選基金時，你會發現我們正透過機會信貸基金進入市場，該基金具有非常顯著的發展勢頭。我們正向市場推出第二款體育、媒體和娛樂產品，正如我們之前討論過的。我們非常積極地推行一些核心房地產股權和債務策略。考慮到該市場的下滑，我們看到了良好的發展勢頭。我們透過基礎設施債務策略等進入該市場。

So while we don't have the magnitude of campaign funds like in European Direct Lending or US Direct Lending, we do have a significant number of funds that are represented across the platform. And then as you saw, places like insurance and wealth are continuing to accelerate above the trend growth, and so I would expect those to continue to be meaningful contributors as well.

因此，雖然我們的競選資金規模不如歐洲直接貸款或美國直接貸款，但我們在整個平台上確實擁有大量資金。正如您所看到的，保險和財富等領域的成長速度繼續高於趨勢成長，因此我預計它們也將繼續成為有意義的貢獻者。

So I can't say in January exactly where we'll be. But as we said in the prepared remarks, I think that we will likely be modestly lower than we were this year just because it was such a significant year, but I still think it's going to be an incredibly strong year for us.

因此我無法準確預測一月的情況。但正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我認為我們的業績可能會比今年略低，因為這是非常重要的一年，但我仍然認為這對我們來說將是非常強勁的一年。

That's really helpful color. And for my follow-up, I did want to ask on the Aspida-T. Rowe partnership. So T. Rowe, on its recent earnings call, discussed the partnership. They cited opportunities for co-developing investment offerings potentially in both insurance and private assets. I'm just curious how you think this partnership could evolve over time, where this can also serve as a potential stepping stone to eventually break into the 401(k) space.

這確實是很有用的顏色。為了後續跟進，我確實想問 Aspida-T。羅威合夥企業。因此，T. Rowe 在最近的收益電話會議上討論了此次合作關係。他們列舉了在保險和私人資產領域共同開發投資產品的潛在機會。我只是好奇，您認為這種合作關係隨著時間的推移會如何發展，這也可以成為最終打入 401（k）領域的潛在墊腳石。

Sure. So reiterating what Rob said on the call, we could not be more excited about the partnership. I think there is a long relationship between our two firms. I think there's a deep mutual respect. T. Rowe is just one of the great financial services companies in the market, and we're thrilled to be their partner. The team at Oak Hill are long-standing partners and counterparties of ours and close friends, and so we're thrilled to be deepening that relationship as well.

當然。因此，我們重申 Rob 在電話中所說的話，我們對這項合作感到非常興奮。我認為我們兩家公司之間有著長期的合作關係。我認為我們之間存在著深深的相互尊重。T. Rowe 只是市場上眾多優秀金融服務公司之一，我們很高興能成為他們的合作夥伴。Oak Hill 的團隊是我們長期的合作夥伴、交易對手和親密朋友，因此我們也很高興能夠加深這種關係。

The way that I would describe it, and it's still early days, is we are obviously in a position to leverage the fixed income capabilities at T. Rowe to the benefit of Aspida. There are things that Oak Hill does within the private market space that complement some of the capabilities that we have here that will add value to Aspida as well as some of our third-party insurance clients. I think that T. Rowe gets to demonstrate its capability and capacity to create insurance solutions, which I think is accretive to their business long term.

我的描述是，雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們顯然能夠利用 T. Rowe 的固定收益能力來使 Aspida 受益。Oak Hill 在私人市場領域所做的事情可以補充我們在這裡擁有的一些能力，並將為 Aspida 以及我們的一些第三方保險客戶增加價值。我認為 T. Rowe 展示了其創造保險解決方案的能力和實力，我認為這對他們的長期業務有益。

And then as you mentioned, it's still early days in figuring out exactly how and on what time frame alts will find their way into the 401(k) market. But there are early discussions just around product development and a path forward to work together on various retirement product. And obviously, that would be super exciting if it came to fruition.

然後正如你所提到的，現在還處於早期階段，無法確定替代產品究竟如何​​以及在什麼時間範圍內進入 401（k）市場。但早期的討論僅圍繞著產品開發和在各種退休產品上合作的前景。顯然，如果它能夠實現，那將會非常令人興奮。

Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

Mike, I was hoping we could start with a question with a point you made earlier regarding institutional investors continuing to expand their allocations to private credit and obviously been an important theme for years. But as you think about the evolution into the investment-grade private credit part of the market, can you talk a little bit about the changes you're seeing in that LP base? Are you seeing other type of insurance companies that are looking at the space? Historically, has been largely life so curious if you've seen more movement on the P&C side, other types of institutions as well, where those allocations could ultimately go? I mean right now, they're still quite low, and then ultimately, Ares' origination capabilities to satisfy that need.

麥克，我希望我們可以從一個問題開始，你之前提到過，機構投資者繼續擴大對私人信貸的配置，這顯然多年來一直是一個重要主題。但是，當您考慮向投資等級私人信貸市場部分演變時，您能否談談您在 LP 基礎中看到的變化？您是否看到其他類型的保險公司也在關注這個領域？從歷史上看，這在很大程度上是生活，因此，如果您看到財產和意外事故保險方面以及其他類型機構的更多動向，那麼這些分配最終會流向何處？我的意思是現在，它們仍然很低，最終，Ares 的發起能力可以滿足這項需求。

Sure. So we do have the capability to manage high-grade fixed income exposures for our clients. That largely takes place within our Alternative Credit group. We are now finding that as we continue to extend our vertical integration within our real estate and infrastructure businesses, that we're able to create high-grade exposures for our clients there as well.

當然。因此，我們確實有能力為客戶管理高等級固定收益風險。這主要發生在我們的另類信貸小組內。我們現在發現，隨著我們繼續擴大房地產和基礎設施業務的垂直整合，我們也能夠為我們的客戶創造高水準的曝光機會。

To this point, given the risk-return profile of those assets, it is predominantly insurance-focused. We have had some success on bank partnerships within that space. We have seen some modest demand from some of the large global sovereigns for those exposures. But those are largely just swapping out of traded high-grade fixed income into non-traded high-grade fixed income to try to pick up some excess return. So while it's a huge TAM, I view that slightly differently than some of the organic expansion that we're seeing across the sub-investment grade portion of the private credit market.

到目前為止，考慮到這些資產的風險回報狀況，它主要以保險為重點。我們在該領域的銀行合作方面取得了一些成功。我們看到一些全球大型主權國家對這些風險敞口有適度的需求。但這些基本上只是將交易的高等級固定收益轉換為非交易的高等級固定收益，以試圖獲得一些超額回報。因此，雖然 TAM 非常巨大，但我認為它與我們在私人信貸市場投資等級以下部分看到的一些有機擴張略有不同。

Got you, great. And then another one related to GCP, with the deal getting closer to completion here, I guess, in the first quarter. Can you guys just level set and remind us what their 2024 full-year management fee base is? How you guys expect that to grow over the next couple of years? And once the deal closes, what kind of products, particularly on the retail side should we be thinking about you guys expanding into?

明白了，太好了。還有一個與 GCP 相關的，我猜這筆交易在第一季會越來越接近完成。你們能否設定並提醒我們他們的 2024 年全年管理費基數是多少？你們預計未來幾年它會如何成長？一旦交易完成，我們應該考慮拓展哪些產品，特別是在零售方面？

Sure. What we had gone over in the call after we made the announcement, it was we expected that 2025's full year -- or the first 12 months after closing, so not the full year 2025 but the first 12 months after closing, would be about $200 million of FRE, not inclusive of synergies and costs. So there's probably about $10 million of synergies that may take longer than those 12 months to recognize, and there's probably about $10 million of costs as part of the integration that we may see as onetime costs going into there.

當然。我們在宣布這一消息後的電話會議上討論過，我們預計 2025 年全年（或交易完成後的前 12 個月，不是 2025 年全年而是交易完成後的前 12 個月）的 FRE 將約為 2 億美元，不包括協同效應和成本。因此，大約有 1000 萬美元的協同效應可能需要超過 12 個月的時間才能實現，並且作為整合的一部分，大約有 1000 萬美元的成本我們可能會將其視為一次性成本。

And then we modeled out that we thought it would be about $245 million in 2026. The overall AUM is about $44 billion of AUM and the lion's share of that is coming out of Japan. It's almost half of it is in Japan with the remainder spread across the globe. The main retail product that they have there is in Japan with the J-REIT product that they have. That does do periodic capital raising depending on the current NAV and traded price, and that did do quite a bit of capital raising from 2013 to 2023. 2024 with the interest rate environment not being as conducive, it didn't have as many raises, but we would expect that in the future that will continue to raise.

然後我們透過模型得出，到 2026 年這個數字將達到約 2.45 億美元。整體 AUM 約為 440 億美元，其中最大份額來自日本。其中近一半在日本，其餘分佈在全球各地。他們的主要零售產品是日本的 J-REIT 產品。根據目前的資產淨值和交易價格，它確實會定期籌集資金，並且在 2013 年至 2023 年期間確實進行了相當多的融資。

But that is a closed-end product, not an open-end like some of our non-tradeds. Overall, we mapped out that we thought that their growth profile including the data center opportunity would match the targets that we laid out at our Investor Day. And overall, it's not really large enough to shift our targets one way or another that we laid out at Investor Day in terms of our growth.

但這是一種封閉式產品，而不是像我們的一些非交易產品那樣的開放式產品。總體而言，我們認為他們的成長前景（包括資料中心機會）將與我們在投資者日制定的目標相符。整體而言，這個規模還不足以讓我們以某種方式改變投資人日所設定的成長目標。

One thing I would just add on top of that, as we talked about in the prepared remarks is, we will hit the ground running post-closing with a number of capital raises that are already in flight. When you look at the data center pipeline and the funds that we're raising in Japan and the UK, that's going to approach about $4 billion. And then when you look at the self-storage and Japan real estate business, that's probably likely another $4 billion on top of that, currency adjusted. So I think there's a high confidence just based on the fundraising pipeline and deployment there that that trajectory from '25 into '26 is intact.

我還要補充一點，正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，我們將在交易結束後立即開始進行已經在進行的一系列融資。當你查看資料中心管道和我們在日本和英國籌集的資金時，這個數字將接近 40 億美元。然後，當您看看自助倉儲和日本房地產業務時，根據貨幣調整後，這個數字可能還要再增加 40 億美元。因此我認為，僅基於籌款管道和部署情況，我們就有很高的信心認為，從 25 年到 26 年的發展軌跡是完整的。

Mike Brown, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克布朗。

So in light of the news with Co-Presidents, Kipp and Blair, I wanted to ask about Blair's side of the credit business and focus on the Europe direct lending side. I wanted to just hear about how is the health of the market there? Does the Trump administration impact some of the growth potential for the region? And how does that impact perhaps the deployment opportunities there? And just overall, how is the competitive landscape in Europe currently?

因此，鑑於聯合總裁基普 (Kipp) 和布萊爾 (Blair) 的消息，我想詢問布萊爾在信貸業務方面的情況，並專注於歐洲直接貸款方面。我只是想聽聽那裡的市場狀況如何？川普政府是否會影響該地區的一些成長潛力？這對那裡的部署機會有何影響？整體而言，目前歐洲的競爭格局如何？

Yes, sure, and thanks for the question. A couple of things to unpack there. First, on the macro side, 2024 actually turned out better than we thought. Coming into the year, there were concerns around inflation, high rates, potential recession. And as the year progressed, obviously, high rates did their job, inflation came down, rates came down, the economies kept moving forward.

是的，當然，感謝您的提問。有幾件事情需要解決。首先，從宏觀角度來看，2024 年的情況其實比我們想像的還要好。進入今年，人們開始擔心通貨膨脹、高利率和潛在的經濟衰退。隨著時間的推移，高利率顯然發揮了作用，通貨膨脹率下降，利率下降，經濟繼續向前發展。

And with respect to the portfolio itself, we don't have many loans to very GDP-sensitive sectors. We tend to favor sectors that are more resilient and have strong organic growth attached. So overall portfolio is doing well. Now your second question around politics, that's obviously quite topical as well. It's early days with respect to the Trump administration.

就投資組合本身而言，我們對 GDP 敏感度較高的行業的貸款並不多。我們傾向於看好那些更具彈性且具有強勁有機成長的產業。因此整體投資組合表現良好。現在您的第二個問題涉及政治，這顯然也相當具有現實意義。對川普政府而言，現在還為時過早。

But from our analysis, again, we don't have a lot of exposures to sectors that are exposed to significant trade flows. Therefore, it's hard to draw a straight line from potential tariffs to our portfolio companies, which again, tend to be of a size where they're more locally focused on individual European markets and countries. I think the other thing that's been talked about is potential impacts on defense spend. But again, that's not a significant end market that we're focused on.

但從我們的分析來看，我們對受到大量貿易流動影響的產業的風險敞口並不大。因此，很難直接將潛在關稅與我們的投資組合公司聯繫起來，這些公司的規模往往比較大，更專注於歐洲各個市場和國家。我認為討論的另一件事是對國防開支的潛在影響。但再次強調，這不是我們關注的重要終端市場。

So overall, I think from an economic perspective, portfolio is doing well, and we are also seeing, and Michael alluded to this as well, pickups in investment activity given the European dry powder available, given European private equity assets that need to be realized. And certainly, cost of capital is importance of slightly lower rates is helping. And that's again why deployment picked up throughout last year and looks good coming into '25.

因此總體而言，我認為從經濟角度來看，投資組合表現良好，而且我們也看到，鑑於歐洲可用的資金量以及需要實現的歐洲私募股權資產，投資活動有所回升，邁克爾也提到了這一點。當然，資本成本的重要性在於略低的利率是有幫助的。這就是為什麼去年部署有所回升並且在進入25年時前景看好的原因。

Okay, great. And then maybe just wanted to ask on the banks as they become more formidable competitors again, how should we think about that interplay between the broadly syndicated bond market and the private credit market? And any color on how we should think about some of the competitive landscape for indirect lending, how that can impact spreads and leverage multiples, deal structures, et cetera?

好的，太好了。然後也許只是想問一下，當銀行再次成為更強大的競爭對手時，我們應該如何看待廣泛銀團債券市場和私人信貸市場之間的相互作用？您能談談我們應該如何看待間接貸款的競爭格局，以及這將如何影響利差和槓桿倍數、交易結構等等嗎？

Yes, sure. We've always said, and I want to make sure that we say maybe louder this time, the banks are more important partners of ours than they are competitors. And I think that the narrative of fierce competition between direct lending and banks is overblown. If you look at how we fund ourselves and how banks access these markets, there's a great symbiotic relationship between their lending operations and their client franchises and our capital base and our origination and portfolio management capabilities.

是的，當然。我們一直在說，而且我想確保這次我們會說得更大聲，銀行是我們更重要的合作夥伴，而不是競爭對手。我認為直接貸款和銀行之間激烈競爭的說法被誇大了。如果你觀察我們如何為自己籌集資金以及銀行如何進入這些市場，你會發現他們的貸款業務和客戶特許經營權與我們的資本基礎以及我們的發起和投資組合管理能力之間存在著良好的共生關係。

When the banks are risk-on, meaning having a greater willingness to originate and distribute into the capital markets and the CLO machine is turned on, you will see at the upper end of the private credit market, large market, predominantly sponsored unitranches, there is competition between the banks and some of the larger direct lenders. In that instance, as you saw last year, our CLO machine turns on, in earnest, from one of the longest-standing, I think, best performing CLO managers in the market. And so last year, as the syndicated loan market was starting to thaw and activity picked up, you saw record CLO issuance for us.

當銀行承擔風險時，意味著有更大的意願發起和分配資金到資本市場，並且 CLO 機器啟動時，你會看到在私人信貸市場的高端，大型市場，主要是讚助的單一合同，銀行和一些較大的直接貸款人之間存在競爭。在這種情況下，正如您去年看到的那樣，我們的 CLO 機器認真地啟動了，由我認為是市場上歷史最悠久、表現最好的 CLO 經理之一負責。因此，去年，隨著銀團貸款市場開始解凍、活動回暖，我們看到了創紀錄的 CLO 發行量。

So at least in that part of the market, I feel like we're hedged. Where we are meaningfully differentiated in our Private Credit platform, and I don't know that we talk about this enough, is that we cover the entire spectrum of sizes, sponsors, non-sponsors, direct-to industry coverage, corporates, real assets, asset-backed, et cetera. And so there are platforms that we compete against that are significantly more exposed to competition at the upper end of the market.

因此，至少在那個部分市場，我覺得我們已經做好了對沖準備。我們的私人信貸平台的顯著差異在於，我們涵蓋了整個規模範圍，包括贊助商、非贊助商、直接面向行業的覆蓋範圍、企業、實物資產、資產支持等等，我不知道我們是否對此進行足夠的討論。因此，我們的競爭平台在高端市場面臨的競爭明顯更為激烈。

As it should be in that part of the market, if you're competing against the liquid loan or high-yield market, you will be more prone to pricing relative to those markets. That's one of the reasons why we have been so focused on building competitive edge in the core middle market part of the business, where we can not only continue to grow and expand those relationships so we think that there is a more consistent excess return and pricing opportunity.

正如在該市場部分中那樣，如果您與流動性貸款或高收益市場競爭，那麼您將更傾向於相對於這些市場進行定價。這就是我們如此專注於在業務的核心中端市場部分打造競爭優勢的原因之一，我們不僅可以繼續發展和擴大這些關係，而且我們認為存在更一致的超額回報和定價機會。

The other thing that I think is also important to think about is this idea that less bank regulation is forthcoming and that somehow the banks are going to wake up and become meaningful competitors. I think there's a misunderstanding as to why banks aren't in these businesses. If you look at the creation of the private credit markets, it's largely been a function of consolidation in the banks over the last 30 years. Very well-entrenched regulatory capital frameworks within the banking and insurance markets and a move to scale, just to name a few, in the liquid markets. It's very, very difficult for that to unwind and to see banks being meaningful competitors in the core parts of the market that we play in.

我認為另一件同樣重要的事情是，銀行監管將會減少，銀行將會以某種方式覺醒並成為有意義的競爭對手。我認為人們對銀行為什麼不涉足這些業務有誤解。如果你觀察私人信貸市場的創建，你會發現它很大程度上是過去 30 年銀行整合的結果。僅舉幾例，銀行業和保險業市場內非常根深蒂固的監理資本框架，以及流動性市場的規模化措施。這種狀況很難消除，而且很難看到銀行成為我們所處的市場核心部分中有意義的競爭對手。

As an example, last week, we announced that we purchased a $1.3 billion loan portfolio from ABN AMRO. It was predominantly a digital assets, digital infrastructure portfolio. And that was just an example of how we're working together with them to bring capital to support their business and for them to optimize their balance sheet and grow their customer franchise. So interestingly, post-election, we probably saw more SRT, CRT, and bank portfolio activity in Q4 than we had seen in any quarter prior, and so I would expect that to continue.

例如，上週我們宣布從荷蘭銀行購買了 13 億美元的貸款組合。它主要是數位資產和數位基礎設施組合。這只是一個例子，說明我們如何與他們合作，為他們的業務提供資金支持，並幫助他們優化資產負債表並擴大客戶特許經營權。有趣的是，選舉後，我們在第四季度看到的 SRT、CRT 和銀行投資組合活動可能比之前任何一個季度都要多，所以我預計這種情況會持續下去。

So I don't want to -- that's a long answer, but the simple answer is as the banks get more active, that's usually good for our CLO and liquid franchise. It means that M&A activity is picking up and our experience has been that's a net benefit to the platform, given the way that we're structured.

所以我不想——這是一個很長的答案，但簡單的答案是，隨著銀行變得更加活躍，這通常對我們的 CLO 和流動性特許經營有利。這意味著併購活動正在升溫，根據我們的經驗，考慮到我們的結構，這對平台來說是一筆淨收益。

Okay, great. Yes, a very comprehensive answer.

好的，太好了。是的，非常全面的答案。

Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

TD Cowen 公司的 Bill Katz。

Congrats, guys, on the promotions. Just coming back to OHA, I'd like to come at this at a slightly different angle. Does this give you an opportunity to rethink the mass affluent marketplace without compromising fee rates? I know when the KKR and the Capital Group initiative came out, there was a lot of skepticism about what the economics might look like, and I know you fiercely want to protect that base management fee. But does this give you an opportunity to potentially expand the wealth management opportunity without that compromise?

大家好，恭喜你們晉升。回到 OHA，我想從稍微不同的角度來談談這個問題。這是否讓您有機會在不影響費率的情況下重新考慮大眾富裕市場？我知道，當 KKR 和 Capital Group 的計劃出台時，很多人對其經濟效益持懷疑態度，我也知道你非常想保護那筆基本管理費。但這是否為您提供了在不妥協的情況下擴大財富管理機會的機會？

It's too early to tell, Bill. I would say, I think what I said last quarter, which is our view on any partnership, whether it's between us and a traditional manager or us and a bank or us and someone in wealth, it has to be customer-led and client-led. We need to convince ourselves, putting the fees aside. The first question has to be, does this create an investment outcome or a product for the client that adds value to them?

現在說還太早，比爾。我想說，我認為我上個季度說過，這是我們對任何合作關係的看法，無論是我們與傳統經理人之間，還是我們與銀行之間，或者我們與富人之間的合作關係，都必須以客戶為主導。我們需要說服自己，把費用放在一邊。第一個問題是，這是否會為客戶創造投資成果或加值產品？

The idea of just taking alternative assets and traditional assets, mushing them together and offering the package, people can do that today, right? There's open architecture in the markets that if somebody wants to access Ares' private product, they can do it through our traded products. They can do it through our non-traded products. They can do it through investing in the management company and so on and so forth. So in our view, if we are going to introduce a product through partnership, it has to create something in the market that is truly differentiated, first and foremost, and then we'll worry about the economics of the product.

將另類資產和傳統資產混合在一起並提供一攬子服務，人們今天就可以做到這一點，對嗎？市場具有開放式架構，如果有人想訪問 Ares 的私人產品，他們可以透過我們的交易產品來實現。他們可以透過我們的非交易產品來實現這一點。他們可以透過投資管理公司等方式來實現這一目標。因此，我們認為，如果我們要透過合作推出一款產品，那麼首先它必須在市場上創造出真正差異化的產品，然後我們才會考慮該產品的經濟性。

And then two, I also want to remind everybody, and we talked about it in the prepared remarks, that the binding constraint to growth and profitability in our business is to be able to create differentiated assets to then deliver differentiated performance to our clients. And there's not an infinite amount of differentiated product in the world. And so I think good business builders will focus on making sure that they're satisfying client need but also making sure that their capital base is optimized for the investable opportunity. And that's the way that we've built Ares and we'll continue to focus on it.

其次，我還想提醒大家，我們在準備好的發言中也談到了這一點，我們業務增長和盈利能力的約束條件是能夠創造差異化的資產，然後為我們的客戶提供差異化的表現。世界上的差異化產品並不是無限的。因此，我認為優秀的企業建設者不僅會注重滿足客戶需求，還會確保其資本基礎將針對可投資機會進行最佳化。這就是我們打造 Ares 的方式，我們將繼續專注於此。

I do think that there's a lot of complementarity that their business and our business, going back to T. Rowe and OHA, they have distribution capability in parts of the market that we don't as -- and we have distribution in certain parts of the market that they don't, so there's a real potential synergy there. And I think that as the partnership grows and strengthens, we'll obviously explore those things, but definitely still too early to tell.

我確實認為他們的業務和我們的業務有很多互補性，回顧 T. Rowe 和 OHA，他們在我們沒有的某些市場領域擁有分銷能力——而我們在某些​​市場領域擁有他們沒有的分銷能力，因此存在著真正的潛在協同效應。我認為，隨著夥伴關係的發展和加強，我們顯然會探索這些事情，但現在還為時過早。

And then one quick one for Jarrod. Just thinking through the ins and outs for the FRE margin outlook. How should we be thinking about compensation? And the reason I'm asking is, if you have the European waterfall sort of poised to sort of accelerate rather dramatically, is there an opportunity to sort of reroute some of the compensation against that? I know you sort of provided a net number relative to the comp you're paying either on sort of the base business or even against FRPR looking ahead.

然後賈羅德 (Jarrod) 也快速說一句話。只是仔細思考 FRE 利潤率前景的來龍去脈。我們該如何考慮賠償？我問這個問題的原因是，如果歐洲瀑布即將急劇加速，是否有機會重新安排部分補償？我知道您提供了一個相對於您所支付的薪酬的淨數字，無論是基於基礎業務還是基於未來的 FRPR。

Sure, and thanks, Bill. I do think it does give you more flexibility. But the key to it is much like how we've used our Part I fees and our more recurring FRPR in the past, you have to wait until it's established and kind of and part of what people expect from their compensation. So it's not a right on day one as you harvest that it's going to create this meaningful change.

當然，謝謝，比爾。我確實認為它確實給了你更多的靈活性。但它的關鍵很像我們過去使用第一部分費用和更經常性的 FRPR 的方式，你必須等到它建立起來，並且成為人們對其薪酬期望的一部分。因此，這並不是第一天收穫就一定會實現的有意義的改變。

It does again provide flexibility and especially as those amounts grow and there's unallocated amounts that you're able to then use to supplement, it is helpful. But it's more something I'd say after year one or two of the full kick-in of the waterfall where it starts to grant you more and more flexibility because of the high level of predictability of those European waterfalls and the growth of those year over year.

它確實再次提供了靈活性，特別是當這些金額增長並且有未分配的金額可以用來補充時，這是很有幫助的。但我更想說的是，在瀑布全面啟動的第一年或第二年之後，它會開始賦予你越來越多的靈活性，因為歐洲瀑布具有很高的可預測性，而且逐年增長。

Ken Worthington, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。

Just one for me in credit. So fundraising deployment continues to be quite strong, fee-paying AUM growth less so. Can you talk about gross deployment versus net deployment and the trends there? Ultimately, what the refinance market looked like in 4Q relative to earlier in the year? And how competitive did Ares choose to be in the refinance market versus what you saw in the BSL market again this quarter?

對我來說只有一個信用。因此，籌款部署持續保持強勁，而付費 AUM 成長則較不強勁。您能談談總部署與淨部署以及其中的趨勢嗎？最終，第四季的再融資市場相對於今年稍早情況如何？與本季 BSL 市場的情況相比，Ares 在再融資市場的競爭力如何？

Yes. So obviously, it's been -- the last couple of years have been difficult, I would say, from a gross to net standpoint just because as I mentioned earlier, the M&A market has been incredibly slow and global volumes have been down. And I feel really good about our ability to defend positions within the existing portfolios and find ways to bring liquidity into the market in non-control transactions to maintain some pretty high levels of quality deployment.

是的。顯然，從總額到淨額的角度來看，過去幾年都是艱難的，因為正如我之前提到的，併購市場發展極其緩慢，全球交易量也在下降。我對我們捍衛現有投資組合中的地位以及透過非控制交易為市場帶來流動性的方法的能力感到非常滿意，從而保持相當高的品質部署水準。

But if you look at the gross to net in 2024 versus prior periods, it was one of our lower deployment periods in the last four years. I would expect that 2025 will be a meaningful improvement and that's going to be largely a function of the M&A volumes turning back on, a more meaningful deployment opportunity within real estate, which was very slow for a number of years.

但如果您比較一下 2024 年的毛利潤與淨利潤，您會發現這是我們過去四年部署較低的時期之一。我預計 2025 年將會有一個有意義的改善，這在很大程度上取決於併購量的回升，這是房地產領域更有意義的部署機會，而房地產領域多年來一直非常緩慢。

And then just what I would call the weight of money that is in the ground today in the private equity and institutional real assets market that needs to get resolved. And so there's a lot of things happening kind of in the market backdrop that we expect will crank up the transaction volumes this year, and that should begin to see the gross to net return to normal levels.

然後，我認為目前私募股權和機構實體資產市場中存在的資金壓力需要解決。因此，我們預計市場背景下發生了很多事情，這將導致今年的交易量增加，並且總交易量和淨交易量將開始恢復到正常水平。

Was 4Q all that different than 1Q?

第四季與第一季有何不同？

So if you look at 4Q gross to net across the platform, it was 42%. And if you look at Q1, it was 22%, so you did see a move. But if you look at it across the entire year, it was 37% versus 46% in 2023. So there's still significant deployment opportunity but it was definitely a four-year low in terms of the gross to net.

因此，如果你查看第四季度整個平台的毛利率與淨利率之比，該比率為 42%。如果你看一下第一季度，這個數字是 22%，所以你確實看到了變化。但如果從全年來看，這一比例為 37%，而 2023 年則為 46%。因此，仍然存在巨大的部署機會，但從毛利潤到淨利潤的比例來看，這肯定是四年來的最低水準。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

瑞銀的布倫南‧霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。

Most of my questions have been asked and answered so I'll just keep it to one. Last quarter, you spoke to an expectation for improving FRE margin in 2025. Is there a decent -- you spoke a little earlier on G&A, which is helpful. But how should we think about the potential magnitude for that and what are the primary factors driving it?

我的大部分問題都已經被問過並得到回答了，所以我只保留一個。上個季度，您談到了對 2025 年 FRE 利潤率提高的預期。有沒有什麼不錯的——你早些時候談到了 G&A，這很有幫助。但是，我們應該如何看待這種現象的潛在規模，以及推動這種現象的主要因素是什麼？

I'd say that it's not too different than what we talked about at our Investor Day. We expect that 0 to 150 basis points expansion. Of course, in the past, we have gone above that. When we go above that, it generally is a result of a very active macro backdrop, which allows for deployment to go up higher than maybe we would expect. So this pace of deployment really dictates the speed at which margin expands in many cases.

我想說的是，這與我們在投資者日談論的內容沒有太大不同。我們預期擴張幅度為0至150個基點。當然，在過去我們已經超越了這個目標。當我們超過這個水平時，通常是由於非常活躍的宏觀背景，這使得部署水平可能比我們預期的更高。因此，在許多情況下，部署速度實際上決定了利潤擴大的速度。

Because I'd just remind everybody, as a credit-predominated business, we're paid on deployment, meaning that we are paying people prior to us earning fees from some of the effort that will be put in. So as dollars are put into the ground and put to work, that enables us to expand our margin at a faster rate. So really, a lot of it comes from how fast will we be able to have that net deployment number increase, and that's what drives a lot of that expansion.

因為我只是想提醒大家，作為一家以信貸為主的企業，我們在部署時獲得報酬，這意味著我們會向在我們之前付出努力的人支付費用。因此，隨著美元投入使用，我們能夠以更快的速度擴大利潤。所以實際上，很大程度上取決於我們能夠以多快的速度增加淨部署數量，而這正是推動擴張的動力。

Further, as we start to see things like A-REIT and AI-REIT return to positive fundraising on the common side, they've been net flat with the common and the 1031 Exchange for the year. So as we see that move back to positive and we've seen a lot of positive signs, that will be something that continues to drive positive economics into the real estate business and allow us to expand margins there as well.

此外，當我們開始看到 A-REIT 和 AI-REIT 等在普通股方面恢復正向融資時，它們今年的淨收益與普通股和 1031 交易所持平。因此，當我們看到這種趨勢恢復正向，並且看到許多積極跡象時，這將繼續推動房地產業的積極經濟發展，並使我們能夠擴大其利潤率。

And overall, we talked a lot this year about our distribution fees. Now that we raised the $10.8 billion in AUM in that retail space, that we had that $50 million distribution fees, now we'll get a full year of revenue off of those as opposed to just that partial year that you get throughout. So really, that was a flat to net negative to our margin for the year. Next year, we'll get the benefit of now having a full year of that in the ground. Of course, there'll be more that we raise and there'll be more expense there, but it begins to create long-term tailwinds to that margin expansion. So there's a number of different areas.

總的來說，今年我們討論了許多有關分銷費用的問題。現在，我們在零售領域的 AUM 已經達到了 108 億美元，而且我們已經獲得了 5,000 萬美元的分銷費，所以我們可以從中獲得全年的收入，而不是全年只獲得部分收入。所以實際上，這對我們今年的利潤率來說是持平或淨負的。明年，我們將受益於現在在地面上種植一整年的作物。當然，我們會籌集更多資金，也會花費更多資金，但這將開始為利潤率的擴大創造長期的順風。因此存在多個不同的領域。

And like I highlighted earlier, we continue to seek scale and we continue to look to do more with what we have, and as we build out more product, more fundraising capability and more origination capability with what we have in the ground today, that enables us to show scale and grow those expenses at a slower rate than we grow our revenues.

正如我之前強調的那樣，我們將繼續尋求規模，並繼續利用現有資源做更多的事情，並且隨著我們利用現有資源打造更多產品、更多籌資能力和更多發起能力，我們能夠展現規模，並且費用增長速度要低於收入增長速度。

Ben Budish, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的本‧布迪什 (Ben Budish)。

Maybe one last sort of follow-up. The last few questions have sort of been around the FRE outlook. Just curious, anything you can share with us in terms of how we might think about management fee growth in 2025? You talked about the sort of gross to net dynamics. I'm curious, is there anything to do with the sort of deployment out of perpetual versus drawdown vehicles, that sort of thing?

或許這是最後一種後續行動。最後幾個問題與 FRE 前景有關。只是好奇，您能與我們分享一下我們對 2025 年管理費成長的看法嗎？您談到了從總量到淨量的動態。我很好奇，這與永久車輛和縮減車輛的部署有什麼關係嗎？

We've obviously got your longer-term FRE guide, and clearly, there's a kind of wide range depending on the pace of deployment. But it just seems like folks are sort of wondering like, how do we sort of think about the top line growth, which will clearly be the driver of FRE margin expansion?

我們顯然已經獲得了您的長期 FRE 指南，並且顯然，根據部署速度，存在很大的範圍。但人們似乎只是有點疑惑，我們如何看待營業收入成長，這顯然會成為 FRE 利潤率擴大的驅動力？

Sure. You have to think of it in a few different ways. The drawdown funds, as you mentioned, that's really where the deployment is driving your expansion of management fees, and that's where you look at that gross to net. In terms of what happens in your retail product, well, that's fundraising-driven because the minute that you raise that dollar, it begins to pay fees. However, you do have to model out the fact that there is an expense with that, or in the case of some of our European dollars, there's been fee waivers in the past.

當然。你必須從幾種不同的方式來思考這個問題。正如您所提到的，提取資金實際上是部署推動管理費擴大的地方，也是您查看毛利與淨利比率的地方。就你的零售產品而言，這是由籌款驅動的，因為你籌集到那美元的那一刻，它就開始支付費用。然而，你確實必須考慮到這樣一個事實，即這會產生費用，或者就我們的一些歐元而言，過去曾有過費用減免。

So out of our European platform, as we move out of the fee waivers, you'll see benefit from that and then you'll see the benefit of fundraising dollars come to your top line or your management fees. Then when you look at our equity style funds, those are also driven more on your fundraising.

因此，在我們的歐洲平台之外，隨著我們取消費用減免，您將看到從中受益，然後您將看到籌集的資金為您的營業收入或管理費用帶來的好處。然後當你看到我們的股票型基金時，你會發現這些基金也更多地受到融資的驅動。

However, a large number of those have a benefit where you get paid on committed but your management fee essentially doubles. It might go from 75 basis points to 150 basis points upon deployment. So you get some benefit of deploying what you had raised in prior years, plus you get the benefit of raising new dollars in the current year.

然而，其中許多都有一項福利，就是你可以按承諾獲得報酬，但管理費實際上會翻倍。一旦部署，它可能會從 75 個基點上升到 150 個基點。因此，您可以利用前幾年籌集的資金獲得一些好處，另外還可以獲得當年籌集新資金的好處。

So across the board, you do have to factor in both that deployment, like you mentioned, but also the fundraising on the equity side and the fundraising on the retail side to make sure you're kind of matching it to that. All of those, we come up with what we believe will think will happen for the year. And ultimately, if we're able to beat that or exceed those amounts, then that will drive further management fee growth above what we project.

因此，從總體上看，你確實必須同時考慮你所提到的部署，以及股權方面的融資和零售方面的融資，以確保與之相匹配。所有這些，我們都認為今年將發生。最終，如果我們能夠超過這個數字，那麼管理費的成長將進一步超出我們的預期。

Understood. Appreciate all that. Maybe one last sort of like nitty-gritty modeling detail. Jarrod, you talked about the sort of range of tax rate outcomes for the year depending on the pace of utilizations. I'm just curious, as the platform gets bigger, as the European waterfall style realization starts to come in, like your after-tax net income is getting bigger and bigger.

明白了。感謝這一切。也許是最後一種類似細節的建模細節。賈羅德，您談到了根據利用速度確定的年度稅率結果範圍。我只是好奇，隨著平台越來越大，隨著歐洲瀑布式實現開始出現，你的稅後淨收入會越來越大。

I'm curious like how should we think about the tax rate as you'll start to be at the -- at some point, you'll be at the corporate alternative minimum tax rate, I believe. And should we start to expect the overall rate to sort of go up? How do we think about that in the context of the sort of timing of realizations? And I realize this is probably somewhat farther out because I think that applies after like several years of over $1 billion in after-tax income. But just curious about how we might think about those pieces.

我很好奇，我們應該如何考慮稅率，因為你將開始處於——在某個時候，我相信你將處於企業替代最低稅率。我們是否應該開始預期整體利率會上升？在實現時間的背景下，我們如何思考這個問題？我意識到這可能有些遙遠，因為我認為這適用於稅後收入超過 10 億美元的幾年之後。但我只是好奇我們如何看待這些作品。

And I think that that is why you saw our range go from 11% to 15%. Last year coming into the year, we mapped out 12% to 15%, and we came in a little bit underneath that amount. Looking at this year, AMT is something that we're aware of. It would require certain things under GAAP to occur that would be relatively large changes mainly based on your unrealized portfolio.

我想這就是我們的範圍從 11% 上升到 15% 的原因。去年進入新年度時，我們規劃的成長目標是 12% 到 15%，但實際成長略低於這個數字。回顧今年，我們已經意識到了 AMT。這需要根據 GAAP 發生某些事情，這些事情將是相對較大的變化，主要基於您的未實現投資組合。

So to your point, you're probably still a year or two away from reaching that 15% AMT tax. And you are correct that as we see more realizations, typically, that drives our tax rate higher. However, with the GCP acquisition, as we close that that will create a lot of taxable goodwill, which that will amortize over 15 years and that will essentially drive your tax rate down. So that's why that range is 11% to 15%. 15% really represents that AMT.

所以就您的觀點而言，您可能還需要一兩年的時間才能達到 15% 的 AMT 稅。您說得對，隨著我們看到更多的實現，通常會導致我們的稅率上升。然而，隨著 GCP 收購的完成，我們將創造大量應稅商譽，這些商譽將在 15 年內攤銷，實質上降低您的稅率。所以這就是為什麼這個範圍是 11% 到 15%。 15% 實際上代表的是 AMT。

But like I said, we thought it would be 12% to 15% this year, came in slightly lower. That should give you an idea of just what a regular year might look like.

但就像我說的，我們認為今年的成長率將是 12% 到 15%，但實際成長率略低一些。這應該可以讓你大致了解正常年份的情況。

Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的麥可‧賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Just with the GCP transaction, you guys are going to be in the market with a number of development vehicles for data centers. So just curious how you're thinking about the investment opportunity with data centers there, just given post the DeepSeek development that suggests that AI models may be a bit less capital energy intensive. Just curious how you're thinking about that and how your views are on evolving around CapEx across the industry.

僅透過 GCP 交易，你們就會進入市場並擁有多種資料中心開發工具。所以我很好奇你是如何看待那裡的數據中心的投資機會的，鑑於 DeepSeek 的發展表明人工智能模型的資本能源密集程度可能會低一些。只是好奇您是如何看待這個問題的，以及您對整個行業資本支出發展的看法。

Yes. Look, I think the markets are still trying to digest what DeepSeek actually means. And there's maybe conflicting views as to what exactly the cost and investments to train those models actually was. From my perspective, at a very high level, the move has always been to lower cost and increase efficiency in the data center business and the cost of compute. And what we have seen with technological advancement and greater efficiency, we will typically see increased demand.

是的。看，我認為市場仍在試圖消化 DeepSeek 的真正意義。但對於訓練這些模型的實際成本和投資究竟是多少，人們可能會有爭議。從我的角度來看，在很高的層面上，這項措施一直是為了降低成本並提高資料中心業務和運算成本的效率。隨著技術進步和效率的提高，我們通常會看到需求的增加。

And so my long-term view is that the demand for compute will continue, which will not change the opportunity to build data centers with good counterparties in good locations. And maybe to that point, if you look at the market today, a significant preponderance of data centers are still going to just support cloud computing with the large cloud companies.

因此，我的長期觀點是，對計算的需求將持續下去，這不會改變在優越地理位置與優良交易對手建立資料中心的機會。也許到了那個時候，如果你看看今天的市場，絕大多數資料中心仍然只是支援大型雲端運算公司的雲端運算。

And obviously, the AI transition is important. Most of the sites and plans for development that we have are catered towards data centers and cloud migration with what I would call upside for AI, meaning that the client can elect to have that optionality in the way that we've built the data center for them.

顯然，人工智慧轉型非常重要。我們的大多數網站和開發計劃都是針對資料中心和雲端遷移的，我稱之為人工智慧的優勢，這意味著客戶可以選擇我們為他們建立資料中心的方式。

I think the good news is, at least in terms of our business, the sites that we are developing with GCP are generally in major metropolitan areas, so London, Tokyo, Osaka, Sao Paulo, where there's real benefit from the proximity to the end user. Latency considerations are obviously also important.

我認為好消息是，至少就我們的業務而言，我們與 GCP 合作開發的站點一般位於大都市地區，例如倫敦、東京、大阪、聖保羅，這些地方距離最終用戶較近，因此具有真正的優勢。顯然，延遲考慮也很重要。

So we're not speculatively building data centers. And I think most people that are similarly situated will tell you that if you are building high-quality data centers in the right places with the right customers, there's still a very significant opportunity to generate meaningful return. And the pipeline that we have, and we talked about this when we announced the transaction, we have the land. It's entitled, it's powered, and we are under LOI for the leasing and the financing, so the near-term pipeline that we've underwritten, in our view, is not at risk.

因此我們不會推測性地建造資料中心。我認為大多數處於類似情況的人都會告訴你，如果你在正確的地方為合適的客戶建立高品質的資料中心，那麼仍然有很大的機會獲得有意義的回報。我們擁有管道，我們在宣布交易時就談到了這一點，我們擁有土地。它有權利，有動力，而且我們已簽署租賃和融資意向書，因此，在我們看來，我們承保的近期管道沒有風險。

And then lastly, I would just highlight the magnitude of the opportunity relative to the amount of capital is so significant that even if you saw a pushing out of that pipeline, it's still undercapitalized relative to the amount of money that is in the market on the debt and equity side to fund it. Estimates, depending on the source, would tell you that's a $4 trillion to $7 trillion annual opportunity. And so needless to say that if we and other peers want to participate in that growth, we don't see $4 trillion to $7 trillion of capital activity to have it be a meaningful growth lever for us.

最後，我只想強調一下，相對於資本數量而言，機會的數量是如此巨大，以至於即使你看到這個管道被推出，但相對於市場上債務和股權方面為其提供資金的資金量而言，它仍然資本不足。根據來源估計，這是一個每年 4 兆到 7 兆美元的機會。因此，毋庸置疑，如果我們和其他同業希望參與這項成長，我們不會認為 4 兆到 7 兆美元的資本活動能夠成為我們有意義的成長槓桿。

So there's a lot to unpack, obviously, in all of that. But I think at least our core investment thesis remains intact, and we're still extremely enthusiastic about the opportunity.

因此，顯然，還有很多問題需要解決。但我認為至少我們的核心投資論點仍然完好無損，而且我們仍然對這個機會非常熱情。

And then just for a follow-up question on private wealth, I was hoping maybe you could just dig in a little bit around the traction you're seeing overseas. If you could maybe elaborate a bit on the success and maybe talk about some of the differences in the approach to distribution that's needed to drive success overseas versus in the US.

然後是關於私人財富的後續問題，我希望您可以稍微深入了解您在海外看到的趨勢。您能否詳細闡述成功之處，並談談在海外和美國取得成功所需的分銷方式上的一些差異。

Yes. Look, we were pleased. Over 35% of our capital raise was coming from our European and APAC positioning. The general difference is really just in terms of market structure. So if you think about the US market, the wirehouses play a pretty significant part and the growth opportunity there, at least the scale opportunity. And then the RIAs are rapidly catching up and probably growing faster right now than the wirehouses, albeit on a smaller number.

是的。瞧，我們很高興。我們籌集的資金中超過 35% 來自歐洲和亞太地區。整體差異實際上僅僅在於市場結構方面。因此，如果你考慮美國市場，大型證券公司扮演相當重要的角色，並且在那裡擁有成長機會，至少是規模機會。然後，RIA 正在迅速趕上，儘管數量較少，但目前的成長速度可能比大型證券公司更快。

When you start to move towards Europe and Asia, the market structure is just fundamentally different. There's more bank partnerships, more wealth partnerships just because the wires are not as prevalent. So you have to build meaningful infrastructure to service the client base differently. I do think that's been a big differentiator for us when you look at the percentage of capital that we're raising.

當你開始轉向歐洲和亞洲時，市場結構根本不同。由於電信不再那麼普遍，因此出現了更多的銀行合作夥伴關係和財富合作夥伴關係。因此，您必須建立有意義的基礎設施，以不同的方式為客戶提供服務。我確實認為，當你查看我們籌集的資本百分比時，這對我們來說是一個很大的區別。

And then also just to highlight, when you look at our -- the success that we've had with our European direct lending product, I think it was kind of the perfect marriage of capability on the investing side and capability on the fundraising side. And we cracked the code that I think very few people have been able to crack.

然後還要強調的是，當你看到我們的歐洲直接貸款產品所取得的成功時，我認為這是投資能力和籌資能力的完美結合。我們破解了我認為很少人能夠破解的密碼。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions today, so that will bring us to the conclusion of today's call.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天我們回答問題的時間就到此為止，今天的電話會議就到此結束。

If you missed any part of today's call, an archived replay of this conference call will be available through March 5, 2025, to domestic callers by calling (1-800) 839-2475 and to international callers by dialing (402) 220-7220. An archived replay will also be available on a webcast link located on the homepage of the Investor Resources section of our website.

如果您錯過了今天電話會議的任何部分，您可於 2025 年 3 月 5 日之前撥打 (1-800) 839-2475 或國際電話 (402) 220-7220 獲取本次電話會議的存檔重播。存檔重播也將在我們網站投資者資源部分主頁上的網路廣播連結上提供。

Again, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us today, and we wish you all a great remainder of your day. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，再次感謝你們今天的到來，我們祝福大家今天過得愉快。再見。