Arch Resources Inc (ARCH) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Arch Resources, Inc. Second quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Deck Slone. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 Arch Resources, Inc. 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想把會議交給 Deck Slone。請繼續。

Good morning from St. Louis, and thanks for joining us today. Before we begin, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call, including statements relating to our expected future business and financial performance, may be considered forward-looking statements according to the Private Security Litigation Reform Act.

聖路易斯早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒您，根據《私人安全訴訟改革法》，本次電話會議期間所做的某些陳述，包括與我們預期的未來業務和財務業績相關的陳述，可能被視為前瞻性陳述。

Forward- looking statements by their nature address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. These uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the annual and quarterly reports we file with the SEC, may cause our actual future results to be materially different from those expressed in our forward-looking statements.

前瞻性陳述本質上涉及不同程度的不確定性問題。這些不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告中進行了更詳細的描述，可能會導致我們未來的實際結果與我們的前瞻性聲明中表達的結果有重大差異。

We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as may be required by law. I'd also like to remind you that you can find the reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss this morning at the end of our press release, a copy of which we have posted in the investor section of our website at archrsc.com.

我們不承諾更新我們的前瞻性陳述，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因，除非法律要求。我還想提醒您，您可以在我們今天早上計劃在新聞稿末尾討論的非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表，我們已將其副本發佈在我們網站的投資者部分在 archrsc.com。

Also participating on this morning's call will be Paul Lang, our CEO; John Drexler, our President; and Matt Giljum, our CFO. After our formal remarks, we'll be happy to take questions.

我們的執行長 Paul Lang 也將參加今天早上的電話會議。約翰‧德雷克斯勒，我們的總裁；和我們的財務長馬特·吉爾朱姆（Matt Giljum）。在我們正式發言後，我們將很樂意回答問題。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Paul.

現在，我將把電話轉給保羅。

Thanks, Deck, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Arch, and are glad you could join us on the call this morning. I'm pleased to report that during the second quarter, Arch continued to drive forward with our clear and consistent plan for long-term value creation growth. During the quarter just ending, the team achieved adjusted EBITDA of $60 million, set a quarterly production record in our coal metallurgical segment, while grinding ahead with the development of a second long-haul district in the First South, where we expect substantially more savings contributions.

謝謝，Deck，大家早安。我們感謝您對 Arch 的興趣，並且很高興您今天早上能夠加入我們的電話會議。我很高興地向大家報告，在第二季度，Arch 繼續推進我們明確且一致的長期價值創造成長計畫。在剛結束的季度中，該團隊實現了6000 萬美元的調整後EBITDA，創下了煤炭冶金部門的季度產量記錄，同時努力推進第一南部第二個長途運輸區的開發，我們預計該地區將大幅節省成本貢獻。

Ships 2 million tons of coking coal to fight significant logistical challenges stemming from the tragic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. Paid down an incremental $13 million in debt, giving us a net cash positive position of $46 million. And worked to right-size the operating activities in our thermal segment, setting the stage for cash generation at these operations in the back half of the year.

運送 200 萬噸煉焦煤，應對弗朗西斯斯科特基大橋悲劇性倒塌帶來的重大物流挑戰。償還了 1300 萬美元的增量債務，使我們的淨現金頭寸達到 4600 萬美元。並努力調整熱力部門的經營活動規模，為下半年這些業務的現金產生奠定基礎。

In addition, on a particular note, we deployed an incremental $19.6 million in our capital return program during the second quarter, even in the face of the just-discussed logistical challenges in a subdued, near-term market environment. We returned this capital through the repurchase of an additional 94,000 shares in common stock with an investment of $15 million and a declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable in September with a total projected payment of $4.6 million to shareholders.

此外，特別值得注意的是，即使在近期市場環境低迷的情況下面臨剛才討論的後勤挑戰，我們在第二季的資本回報計劃中還是增加了 1,960 萬美元。我們透過回購額外 94,000 股普通股、投資 1500 萬美元以及宣布每股 0.25 美元的季度現金股息（將於 9 月支付）的方式返還了這筆資本，預計向股東支付的總額為 460 萬美元。

In aggregate, we've now deployed well over $1.3 billion in our capital return program since its relaunch in February 2022, which, we hope you'll agree, represents a substantial amount of value generation in a relatively brief period of time. This total includes $732 million, or $38.78 per share in dividend payments, and the repurchase of $615 million in common stock, as well as the repurchase and retirement of our convertible notes.

自 2022 年 2 月重新啟動以來，我們的資本回報計畫總計已投入超過 13 億美元，我們希望您會同意，這代表在相對較短的時間內創造了大量價值。該總額包括 7.32 億美元，即每股 38.78 美元的股息支付，回購 6.15 億美元的普通股，以及回購和註銷我們的可轉換票據。

It's worth pointing out that, including the Q2 repurchases, we've now reduced our diluted share count by well over 3.5 million shares, or more than 16% when compared to the level of May 2022. Looking ahead, we remain sharply focused on driving that share count down even further.

值得指出的是，包括第二季的回購在內，我們現在已將稀釋後股票數量減少了超過 350 萬股，與 2022 年 5 月的水平相比，減少了 16% 以上。展望未來，我們仍將重點放在進一步減少該份額。

As you know, the central tenet of our value proposition is to return 100% of the company's discretionary cash flow to shareholders, with a strong emphasis on share repurchases. We believe that this framework has created substantial value for our shareholders in the past, and we fully expect it to continue to do so in the future.

如您所知，我們價值主張的核心宗旨是將公司可自由支配的現金流量 100% 返還給股東，其中特別強調股票回購。我們相信，這個框架過去為我們的股東創造了巨大的價值，我們完全期望它在未來繼續這樣做。

Let's now switch to some brief commentary on the steel and coking coal markets, before turning the call over to John for additional color on our operating performance during Q2. As you're now aware, steel, and coking coal demand remains tethered, due principally, in our estimation, to a challenging global macroeconomic environment, related in part to weak infrastructure and property market spending in China.

現在讓我們對鋼鐵和煉焦煤市場進行一些簡短的評論，然後再將電話轉給約翰，以獲取有關我們第二季度營運業績的更多資訊。正如您現在所知，鋼鐵和焦煤需求仍然受到限制，據我們估計，這主要是由於全球宏觀經濟環境充滿挑戰，部分原因是中國基礎設施和房地產市場支出疲軟。

The predictable, but nonetheless consequential effects of the monsoon season in India, and the slow climb out from [multiple] quarters of economic stagnation in Europe. These factors have coalesced to weigh our global steel demand, as evidenced by the recent erosion of steel prices. Hot rolled coil prices in major steel-producing regions are down approximately 50% versus the peak seen in 2021.

印度季風季節的影響是可以預見的，但仍然是重大的影響，以及歐洲經濟從多個季度的停滯中緩慢復甦。這些因素綜合起來影響了我們的全球鋼鐵需求，最近鋼鐵價格的下跌就證明了這一點。主要產鋼地區的熱軋捲價格較 2021 年的高峰下降約 50%。

As part of this, European steel markets are under pressure, with the average capacity factor of blast furnaces standing around 65% according to our estimates. This steel market weakness has had the predictable, knock-on effect on global coking coal markets. Even with these pressures, however, customer interest that arches high-quality coking coal products, particularly in Asia, continues to climb.

受此影響，歐洲鋼鐵市場面臨壓力，根據我們的估計，高爐平均產能係數約為 65%。鋼鐵市場的疲軟對全球煉焦煤市場產生了可預見的連鎖反應。然而，儘管面臨這些壓力，客戶（尤其是亞洲客戶）對優質焦煤產品的興趣仍在持續攀升。

Asian steel makers appear increasingly focused on identifying strong, consistent, and long-lived sources for their long-term coking coal requirements, given their own expansion plans, in order to buffer themselves from a lack of new investment in the coking coal supply chain.

考慮到自己的擴張計劃，亞洲鋼鐵製造商似乎越來越注重為其長期煉焦煤需求尋找強大、一致和長期的來源，以緩衝煉焦煤供應鏈缺乏新投資的影響。

Given the number of customer inquiries over the last couple of months, we expect to have ample opportunity to continue to build on our global customer base, with a strong Asian-Ethnic emphasis that represents a good strategic fit with our high-quality assets.

鑑於過去幾個月的客戶諮詢數量，我們預計將有充足的機會繼續發展我們的全球客戶群，並專注於亞洲族裔，這與我們的優質資產具有良好的策略契合度。

Meanwhile, the coking coal supply side of the story remains muted, reflecting degradation and depletion of a resource base in major supply regions, only modest investment in new and replacement mine capacities, recent mine outages that have removed 2% to 3% of supply from the global seaborne market, and an increasingly fragile supply chain.

同時，煉焦煤供應方面仍然低迷，反映出主要供應地區資源基礎的退化和枯竭，對新建和替代礦山產能的投資有限，最近的礦山停駛導致煤炭供應減少了 2% 至 3%。海運市場和日益脆弱的供應鏈。

Moreover, we believe that the current coking coal prices are below the marginal cost of production on a global basis, which, if accurate, will take a predictable toll on production models over time, assuming such prices persist. As a result of these various factors, we expect seaborne coking coal markets to balance quickly once the global economy begins to straighten, and global steel demand starts to reassert itself.

此外，我們認為，目前的煉焦煤價格低於全球範圍內的邊際生產成本，如果準確的話，假設這種價格持續下去，隨著時間的推移，將對生產模型產生可預測的影響。由於這些多種因素，我們預期一旦全球經濟開始復甦，全球鋼鐵需求開始復甦，海運焦煤市場將迅速平衡。

Looking ahead, we remain sharply focused on driving continuous improvement and execution across our entire operating platform in support of strong, value-generating capital returns for our stockholders, even in today's soft market environment. With our cost-competitive coking coal portfolio, high-quality products with rapid rate spans and presence in Asian markets, and recognized sustainability leadership, we believe we are exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize as global steel demand stabilizes and then returns to its anticipated upward growth.

展望未來，即使在當今疲軟的市場環境下，我們仍然專注於推動整個營運平台的持續改進和執行，以支持為股東帶來強勁的、創造價值的資本回報。憑藉我們具有成本競爭力的煉焦煤產品組合、快速跨度的高品質產品和在亞洲市場的佔有率，以及公認的可持續發展領導力，我們相信，隨著全球鋼鐵需求穩定並恢復到預期的上升水平，我們處於有利地位。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John for further discussion on our operational performance in Q2. John?

這樣，我將把電話轉給約翰，進一步討論我們第二季的營運績效。約翰？

Thanks, Paul, and good morning, everyone. As Paul just discussed, the Arch team navigated through the extreme disruptions to the logistics chain in an effective manner in Q2, shipping more than 2 million tons of coking coal, even as we were forced to direct virtually all our seaborne volumes to an already busy DTA during April and May.

謝謝保羅，大家早安。正如 Paul 剛才所討論的，Arch 團隊在第二季度以有效的方式應對了物流鏈的極端中斷，運輸了超過 200 萬噸焦煤，儘管我們被迫將幾乎所有海運量運往本已繁忙的港口。月和五月期間的DTA。

I want to commend the Arch team for that excellent work, and I also want to extend our appreciation to our rail and other logistics providers for their great support during that challenging time. I would also point out that we had two additional vessels representing more than 160,000 tons that just flipped into Q3 due to the extremely busy June shipping schedule at both East Coast Terminals.

我要讚揚 Arch 團隊的出色工作，也要感謝我們的鐵路和其他物流提供者在這個充滿挑戰的時期給予的大力支持。我還想指出的是，由於東海岸兩個碼頭 6 月的船期極其繁忙，我們還有兩艘超過 16 萬噸的船舶剛剛進入第三季。

While we were disappointed that those vessels fell out of Q2, those early July loadings provide a jumpstart to the year's back half when we anticipate moving substantially more volumes. Given the strong performance of the overall logistics chain in the face of Q2's difficulties, as well as our positive operating momentum, we are confident we can achieve the step-up necessary to deliver on our full-year sales guidance of between 8.6 million and 9 million tons.

雖然我們對這些船舶在第二季度的表現感到失望，但 7 月初的裝載量為今年下半年提供了一個良好的開端，當時我們預計運輸量將大幅增加。鑑於整個物流鏈在第二季度的困難面前表現強勁，以及我們積極的營運勢頭，我們有信心能夠實現必要的提升，以實現全年 860 萬至 9 輛的銷售目標萬噸。

Bolstering that confidence further is our continuing operational progress. As Paul indicated, the Metallurgical team delivered a record performance during Q2, producing more than 2.5 million tons in total for the first time.

我們持續的營運進展進一步增強了這種信心。正如 Paul 所言，冶金團隊在第二季創造了創紀錄的業績，總產量首次超過 250 萬噸。

Just as importantly, Leer South progressed into the final panel in District 1 in early July and is achieving strong advance rates there even as the mine prepares for the transition to District 2 in late September or early October. As you will recall, our data shows that the coal seam is 15% to 20% thicker in District 2 and that the overall mining profile is more advantageous, which should drive a step-up in production levels in future periods.

同樣重要的是，Leer South 於 7 月初進入了 1 區的最終小組，並且在礦場準備在 9 月底或 10 月初過渡到 2 區的同時，也取得了強勁的進展率。您可能還記得，我們​​的數據顯示，二區煤層厚度增加了 15% 至 20%，整體開採剖面更加有利，這應該會推動未來時期生產水準的提升。

Now let's spend a few minutes on the Metallurgical segment's operating markets, which were compressed in Q2 due to the challenging logistical environment. In total, logistical disruptions had an estimated impact of greater than $12 million in Q2 related to vessel demerge, retimed vessel movement, increased rail fees, and mid-streaming activities, which in aggregate acted to lower our average sale net back attrition.

現在讓我們花幾分鐘時間了解冶金部門的營運市場，由於物流環境充滿挑戰，該市場在第二季受到壓縮。總體而言，物流中斷對第二季的影響預計超過 1,200 萬美元，原因包括船舶拆解、船舶調動時間調整、鐵路費用增加以及中游活動，這些活動總體上降低了我們的平均銷售淨回減率。

As an aside, it may also be worth noting that we had a higher-than-radical percentage of high-volume shipments during Q2, which also actively dampened the average net cost. The Metallurgical segment's cash costs were also pressured due to the difficult logistical environment during Q2 as we directed every possible loading spot to coking coal rust.

順便說一句，還值得注意的是，我們在第二季度的大批量出貨量百分比高於激進水平，這也積極抑制了平均淨成本。由於第二季物流環境困難，冶金部門的現金成本也受到壓力，因為我們將所有可能的裝貨點集中在焦煤銹上。

As a result, we deferred the shipment of nearly 150,000 tons of thermal byproducts during the course. Given that the thermal byproduct inventory value is immaterial, the reduced shipping schedule for this product served to increase the Metallurgical segment's unit cost by an estimated $6 per ton.

因此，我們在此期間推遲了近15萬噸熱副產品的裝運。鑑於熱副產品庫存價值並不重要，該產品運輸計劃的縮短導致冶金部門的單位成本增加了每噸約 6 美元。

We expect these unit costs to reverse in the year's second half. We are also expecting an appreciably stronger performance from the thermal segment in the year's back half. That positive outlook is driven principally by the expectation of an improving contribution from our Powder River Basin operation in Q3 and Q4.

我們預計這些單位成本將在今年下半年扭轉。我們也預期今年下半年熱力領域的表現將明顯增強。這種積極的前景主要是由於預計我們的粉河盆地業務在第三季和第四季的貢獻將有所改善。

As you will recall, we entered 2024 at an annual production rate of close to 55 million tons. Based on the expectation that we would ship 50 million tons of already submitted volumes and an incremental 5 million tons or so related to intra-year sales.

您可能還記得，進入 2024 年時，我們的年產量接近 5500 萬噸。預計我們將運送 5000 萬噸已提交的數量以及與年內銷售相關的增量約 500 萬噸。

Unfortunately, muted power demand coupled with depressed natural gas prices quelled virtually all new buying activity while spurring an influx of requests for the product. As a result, we spent the first six months of the year realigning operating activities and stripping rates with the much-reduced shipping portals.

不幸的是，電力需求疲軟加上天然氣價格低迷幾乎抑制了所有新的購買活動，同時刺激了對該產品的大量需求。因此，我們在今年的前六個月根據大幅減少的運輸門戶重新調整了營運活動和剝離率。

On a more positive note, the excess stripping that we completed during Q1 and Q2 resulted in a significant build in pit inventory in the year's first half of our [PRB] month. As most of you are aware, pit inventory is filled and is still sitting in the pit post the removal of the overbloom, a step that constitutes the lion's share of the production cost.

從更積極的角度來看，我們在第一季和第二季完成的超額剝離導致今年 [PRB] 月上半月礦坑庫存大幅增加。正如你們大多數人所知，礦坑庫存已被填滿，並且在去除過度開花後仍留在礦坑中，這一步驟構成了生產成本的大部分。

Consequently, these tons, when they do ship, will have a positive impact on our per ton cash margin since most of the operating cost has already been incurred. We are currently sitting on more than 8 million tons of pit inventory in Wyoming, which is twice as much as we would typically kill.

因此，當這些噸裝運時，將對我們的每噸現金利潤產生積極影響，因為大部分營運成本已經發生。目前，我們在懷俄明州擁有超過 800 萬噸礦坑庫存，是我們通常屠宰量的兩倍。

During the year's back half, we expect shipments to exceed production, which will allow us to monetize some of this pit inventory value. Meanwhile, West Elk again operated efficiently and generated solid adjusted EBITDA, even as it continued to ship under several legacy contracts and dampened nest access.

今年下半年，我們預計出貨量將超過產量，這將使我們能夠將部分坑內庫存價值貨幣化。同時，West Elk 再次高效運營，並產生了穩定的調整後 EBITDA，儘管它繼續根據幾項遺留合約進行運輸，並且巢穴訪問受到抑制。

More importantly, the longer-term outlook at West Elk remains compelling. During Q2, the marketing team continued to build out West Elk's book of industrial business in the outer years at fixed prices in excess of $70 per ton, $25 to $35 per ton above the legacy contracts that are expiring.

更重要的是，West Elk 的長期前景仍然引人注目。在第二季度，行銷團隊繼續以超過每噸 70 美元的固定價格建立 West Elk 的工業業務，比即將到期的傳統合約高出每噸 25 至 35 美元。

At the same time, the mine continued to drive ahead with the development of the BC, where the coal is significantly thicker, the quality is markedly better, and the per ton cash costs should be substantially lower. Those factors in aggregate should translate into a step change in profitability for West Elk across a wide range of market conditions once the long haul transitions to BC in mid-2025.

同時，該礦持續推動BC省的開發，煤炭厚度明顯增加，品質明顯改善，噸現金成本應大幅降低。一旦長程航線在 2025 年中期過渡到 BC 省，這些因素總的來說應該會轉化為 West Elk 在各種市場條件下獲利能力的階梯性變化。

Before passing the baton to Matt, let's spend a few minutes discussing the team's exemplary achievements in the sustainability arena. As you know, we firmly believe that a culture of safety and environmental stewardship is essential for long-term success in our business.

在將接力棒交給馬特之前，讓我們花幾分鐘討論團隊在永續發展領域的典範成就。如您所知，我們堅信安全和環境管理文化對於我們業務的長期成功至關重要。

During the first half of 2024, Arch's subsidiary operations achieved an aggregate total lost time incident rate of 0.47 incidents for 200,000 employee hours worked, or more than 4 times better than the industry average. On the environmental front, the company recorded zero environmental violations under [SMCRA] as a result, as well as zero water quality exceedances across all our subsidiary operations.

2024 年上半年，Arch 子公司在 20 萬名員工工作時間內，總共實現了 0.47 起誤工事故，比行業平均高出 4 倍多。在環境方面，公司根據 [SMCRA] 實現了零環境違規，並且我們所有子公司的水質超標為零。

Further highlighting the team's excellent work, the state of Colorado recognized West Elk in Q2 with an outstanding safety award, an excellence in innovative safety technology award, and an excellence in mining reclamation award. And the state of Wyoming honored Coal Creek with a surface mine safety award. On behalf of the board and the senior management team, I want to once again commend the entire workforce for their deep commitment to excellence in these essential areas of performance.

科羅拉多州在第二季度向 West Elk 頒發了傑出安全獎、卓越創新安全技術獎和卓越採礦復墾獎，進一步凸顯了團隊的出色工作。懷俄明州向 Coal Creek 授予露天礦山安全獎。我謹代表董事會和高階管理團隊，再次讚揚全體員工在這些重要績效領域對卓越的堅定承諾。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Matt for some additional comments on our financial results. Matt?

現在，我將把電話轉給馬特，請他對我們的財務表現提出一些補充意見。馬特？

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin with a discussion of second quarter cash flows and liquidity. Operating cash flow totaled $59 million in Q2, which was negatively impacted by a working capital increase of $15 million.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。讓我們先討論第二季的現金流和流動性。第二季營運現金流量總計 5,900 萬美元，受到營運資本增加 1,500 萬美元的負面影響。

In April, we had discussed the likelihood of a significant working capital increase in the quarter in light of the tragic bridge collapse in Baltimore and the impact it would have on shipment time. But the ability to quickly pivot to alternative shipping methods resulted in a much smaller-than-anticipated bill. Capital spending for the quarter totaled $47 million, and discretionary cash flow was $12 million.

四月份，我們討論了鑑於巴爾的摩橋樑倒塌的悲劇及其對發貨時間的影響，本季度營運資金大幅增加的可能性。但快速轉向替代運輸方式的能力導致費用遠低於預期。本季資本支出總計 4,700 萬美元，可自由支配現金流為 1,200 萬美元。

According to the balance sheet, we ended June with cash and short-term investments of $279 million. We reduced debt levels by $13 million during the quarter, ending June with total debt of $133 million, a net cash position of $146 million, and liquidity of $366 million.

根據資產負債表，截至 6 月份，我們的現金和短期投資為 2.79 億美元。我們在本季減少了 1,300 萬美元的債務水平，截至 6 月份，總債務為 1.33 億美元，淨現金部位為 1.46 億美元，流動性為 3.66 億美元。

Turning now to the capital return program, as Paul detailed, we remained active in the program in the second quarter, despite the challenging logistical and soft market environment. While cash flows for the quarter did not support a variable dividend, our goal is to create a fixed dividend of $0.25 per share, available on September 13, to stockholders of record on August 30.

現在轉向資本返還計劃，正如保羅詳細介紹的那樣，儘管物流和市場環境疲軟，但我們在第二季度仍然積極參與該計劃。雖然本季的現金流不支持可變股息，但我們的目標是在 9 月 13 日向 8 月 30 日登記在冊的股東派發每股 0.25 美元的固定股息。

I'll discuss our guidance in more detail shortly, but with the expectation of increased volumes in both segments in the back half of the year, we would anticipate cash flows to support our significant returns in Q3 and Q4, if we would expect share and purchases to be the primary vehicle for those returns.

我將很快更詳細地討論我們的指導，但由於預計下半年這兩個領域的銷量都會增加，如果我們期望份額和份額，我們預計現金流將支持我們在第三季度和第四季度的顯著回報。

Next, I want to spend a few minutes expanding on the severance tax rebate that we received from the state of West Virginia in the quarter. The rebate stems from visionary legislation put in place by the state to encourage co-related investment and employment.

接下來，我想花幾分鐘時間詳細介紹本季我們從西維吉尼亞州收到的遣散費退稅。該退稅源於國家為鼓勵相關投資和就業而製定的富有遠見的立法。

If you may recall, the incentives that the state created in that legislation were an important consideration in our ultimate decision to move forward with the $400 million build-out of Leer South. We're now pleased to report that the legislation has proved highly beneficial to both parties. On the art side of the equation, we have a new world-class coking coal mine that we expect to remain centerpiece of our operations for decades.

如果你還記得，州政府在該立法中製定的激勵措施是我們最終決定推進耗資 4 億美元擴建 Leer South 的一個重要考慮因素。我們現在很高興地報告，事實證明該立法對雙方都非常有利。在藝術方面，我們擁有一個新的世界級焦煤礦，我們預計它將在未來幾十年內繼續成為我們營運的核心。

For the state, that investment has translated into 600 well-paying direct jobs, a significantly higher number of indirect jobs, and substantial incremental severance tax receipts, as well as a host of other state and local tax revenues. The rebate earned in the second quarter was the result of a long process required under the law, not only documenting the investments that were made, but also demonstrating the benefits to the state from increases in coal production, employment, and severance tax payments over a baseline period.

對該州來說，這項投資已轉化為 600 個高薪直接就業、數量顯著增加的間接就業崗位、大量增量遣散費收入以及大量其他州和地方稅收收入。第二季度獲得的退稅是法律要求的長期程序的結果，不僅記錄了所進行的投資，而且還證明了煤炭產量、就業和遣散費的增加給國家帶來的好處基線期。

Looking ahead, we expect to qualify for additional rebates in the future, although the extent and timing of those potential future recoveries will be driven by a host of factors, including market dynamics. Finally, I'll conclude my remarks with some comments on our guidance for the rest of the year.

展望未來，我們預計未來有資格獲得額外回扣，儘管未來潛在復甦的程度和時間將受到包括市場動態在內的一系列因素的驅動。最後，我將以對今年剩餘時間的指導意見進行一些評論來結束我的發言。

In the metallurgical segment, we have maintained our full-year guidance for coking coal sales volumes and gas costs. While volumes for the first half of the year were less than [rent], particularly in April, shipments in May and June were at an annual pace of more than 9 million tons. For cash costs, our guidance excludes the Q2 benefit and any potential future incremental benefits of a severance tax rebate, while anticipating a meaningful reduction in the thermal byproduct inventory by year-end.

在冶金領域，我們維持對煉焦煤銷售和天然氣成本的全年指引。雖然上半年的出貨量低於[租金]，特別是 4 月份，但 5 月和 6 月的出貨量年均超過 900 萬噸。對於現金成本，我們的指導不包括第二季的收益以及遣散費退稅的任何潛在的未來增量收益，同時預計到年底熱副產品庫存將大幅減少。

Additionally, we have adjusted several other items in line with the weaker operating results thus far this year. Capital spending is now expected to be in the range of $155 million to $165 million, a reduction of $10 million at the midpoint. Total SG&A guidance is now approximately $92 million at the midpoint, including both cash and non-cash expense, representing a reduction of $5 million. Finally, we now expect that we will not pay any cash taxes in 2024 and will carry federal NOL carry forward totaling approximately $250 million in 2025.

此外，我們還根據今年迄今較弱的經營業績調整了其他幾個項目。目前預計資本支出在 1.55 億美元至 1.65 億美元之間，中間減少 1,000 萬美元。目前，SG&A 指導總額中位數約為 9,200 萬美元，包括現金和非現金費用，減少了 500 萬美元。最後，我們現在預計 2024 年將不繳納任何現金稅，並將在 2025 年結轉聯邦 NOL 結轉總額約為 2.5 億美元。

With that, we are ready to take questions. Operator, I will turn the call back over to you.

至此，我們準備好回答問題了。接線員，我會將電話轉回給您。

(operator instructions) Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）Lucas Pipes，B. Riley Securities。

Thank you very much, Operator. Good morning, everyone. My first question is kind of on the margin outlook for the Metallurgical business. There were a few moving pieces on the cost side in Q2, and I wondered if you could maybe speak to Q3. I assume there's a $6 benefit from the thermal byproduct, but then there's not the severance rebate, and I would anticipate much higher volume.

非常感謝您，接線生。大家早安。我的第一個問題是關於冶金業務的利潤前景。第二季的成本方面有一些變化，我想知道您是否可以談談第三季。我認為熱副產品可以帶來 6 美元的收益，但沒有遣散費回扣，而且我預計銷量會更高。

And then on the realization front, you spoke to a somewhat higher contribution from high vol B in Q2, so wondering how that, as well as maybe lower rail rates, might impact realization. So, broadly, kind of coking coal margins in Q3 versus Q2. Thank you very much.

然後在實現方面，您談到了第二季度高波動率 B 的貢獻略高，因此想知道這以及可能較低的鐵路費率可能會如何影響實現。因此，整體而言，第三季與第二季的煉焦煤利潤率有所不同。非常感謝。

Hey, Lucas. I'll start off here, and I think you hit on a couple of the key themes. Obviously, the second quarter was impacted significantly with what happened at the Port of Baltimore and the bridge collapse, and as a reminder -- 50% of our metallurgical exports go under that bridge on an annual basis, so the logistics team did a fantastic job of managing that.

嘿，盧卡斯。我將從這裡開始，我認為您觸及了幾個關鍵主題。顯然，第二季度受到了巴爾的摩港發生的事件和橋樑倒塌的嚴重影響，提醒一下——我們每年 50% 的冶金出口都通過這座橋進行，因此物流團隊做得非常出色地管理那個。

We talked through the impact of the reduced margins there. There was a component of us having to redirect a lot of rail transportation. It was a longer transport to our DTA facility as a result, so there's rail surcharge impacts, but the team did a fantastic job of working to get that coal flow redirected. We got creative, as well. We talked a little bit about it on the first quarter call, as well, where we had an opportunity to midstream, so when there was an opportunity to load some margins and get them through some lower draft openings of that bridge early in the -- recovery process, we took advantage of that and loaded several vessels that way, as well.

我們討論了利潤率下降的影響。我們的一個組成部分必須改變許多鐵路運輸的方向。因此，到 DTA 設施的運輸時間較長，因此會產生鐵路附加費的影響，但團隊在改變煤流方向方面做得非常出色。我們也有創意。我們在第一季度的電話會議上也對此進行了一些討論，我們有機會進入中游，所以當有機會加載一些利潤並讓他們在早期通過該橋的一些較低的草案開口時——回收過程中，我們利用了這一點，也以這種方式裝載了幾艘船。

Once again, though, some incremental charges coming through there, also. Again, you've also got the merge. You've got vessels that are getting tied up, getting delayed, so we had all of those costs coming through, so about $12 million of impact and reduced margin as a result of that.

不過，這裡也再次產生了一些增量費用。同樣，您還獲得了合併。有些船隻被困、延誤，所以我們承擔了所有這些成本，因此產生了約 1200 萬美元的影響並減少了利潤。

On the cost side, you hit on it, as well. The typical byproduct that we produce and have forever in the MET segment is the Midlands project, the thermal byproduct. It's about 10% of our production. Typically, that's on a standard cadence of shipments. As we indicated in our remarks, the inventory value of that product is extremely low, so as a result of reduced shipments from what we had planned, there's a pretty significant impact in the unit cost.

在成本方面，你也注意到了這一點。我們在 MET 領域生產並永遠擁有的典型副產品是 Midlands 項目，即熱力副產品。大約占我們產量的 10%。通常，這是按照標準的發貨節奏進行的。正如我們在評論中指出的那樣，該產品的庫存價值極低，因此由於我們計劃的發貨量減少，因此對單位成本產生了相當大的影響。

The opportunity, though, is those are going to be recovered in the back half of the year as we ship that middling product, and so -- we've got a lot of confidence here. We came operationally through a quarter where the MET segment produced at a record level. We expect more going forward, but with Leer South continuing its progress and ongoing improvement into District 2, we feel good about our ability to continue to produce at those higher levels, and then we'll work very hard and have confidence we can achieve the shipment levels that we've projected as well.

不過，機會是，隨著我們推出中等產品，這些將在今年下半年恢復，因此，我們對此充滿信心。我們在營運中度過了一個季度，MET 部門的產量達到了創紀錄的水平。我們期望未來會有更多進展，但隨著Leer South 繼續取得進展並不斷改進第2 區，我們對繼續在更高水平上生產的能力感到滿意，然後我們將非常努力地工作，並有信心我們能夠實現我們也預測了出貨量。

Lucas, it's Deck. I might just add, look -- we wouldn't expect, you know, that $6 sort of, pressure on netbacks that we incurred in Q2 as a result of the bridge collapse for all the reasons that John just articulated, but also, -- look, the pricing today on the US East Coast, down around $10. I think the positive side of that is that if you look at the average price in Q2, which was around $218 for HVA, you know, that implies a rail rate that might be $10 lower as well.

盧卡斯，我是德克。我可能會補充一點，你知道，由於約翰剛才闡述的所有原因，橋樑倒塌導致我們在第二季度遭受了 6 美元的淨利潤壓力，而且，- - 看，今天美國東海岸的價格下降了10 美元左右。我認為積極的一面是，如果你看看第二季的平均價格，HVA 約為 218 美元，你知道，這意味著鐵路費率也可能會低 10 美元。

So you take those two pieces and you sort of -- they kind of net out right now, again, assuming prices hold up, but we don't have those additional costs that we're weighing, on netbacks. So I think that those are important components. Certainly suggest right now that we could see a step up in an expansion of margins where we are today.

所以你把這兩部分拿走，假設價格保持不變，它們現在就會再次淨值，但我們沒有在淨值上權衡那些額外成本。所以我認為這些都是重要的組成部分。當然，現在我們可以看到我們今天的利潤率會進一步擴大。

Certainly would add the fact that, as you point out, volumes are we would anticipate stronger volumes, which should also result in, a lower unit cost. So all those pieces in aggregate, really should deliver a stronger future

當然也要補充一個事實，正如您所指出的，我們預期銷量會增加，這也應該會導致單位成本降低。因此，所有這些部分加在一起，確實應該帶來更美好的未來

And maybe one of the details on your question, yes, about the impact of high-vol B, during Q2, our typical splits on shipments are 70% High-Vol-A, 15% High-Vol B, 15% low vol. You know, we were 20%-plus High-Vol B during Q2 on the shipment front. Overall of the quarters, that ends up evening out, it had a modest impact on the realization, but one we did want to note in our commentary.

也許是你問題的細節之一，是的，關於高波動率B 的影響，在第二季度，我們典型的出貨量劃分是70% 高波動率A、15% 高波動率B、15% 低波動率。您知道，第二季我們的 High-Vol B 出貨量成長了 20% 以上。總的來說，這個季度最終結束了，它對實現的影響不大，但我們確實想在評論中指出這一點。

I think -- as I look at this, standing back and taking a longer view, the bridge collapse affected Q2 in a lot of strange ways. But Q2 is messy for reasons outside the company. I think John pointed out very well on the team an outstanding job of reacting, considering what we were able to do to divert all those codes and bring them to market was amazing.

我認為，當我退後一步，以更長遠的眼光來看這一點時，橋樑倒塌以許多奇怪的方式影響了第二季度。但由於公司外部的原因，第二季的情況很混亂。我認為約翰很好地指出了團隊的出色反應工作，考慮到我們能夠做的事情來轉移所有這些代碼並將它們推向市場是令人驚嘆的。

Yeah, we touched on the very big issues, which were the netbacks were affected, costs were affected. But as I look at it, we were still able to do some capital returns, and I think probably the most important of all of this is it's behind us, it was outside of us, and we're moving on, and things should revert to normal. At the end of the day, that's why we're optimistic about the back half of the year.

是的，我們談到了非常大的問題，即淨利潤受到影響，成本受到影響。但正如我所看到的，我們仍然能夠獲得一些資本回報，我認為這一切中最重要的可能是它已經在我們身後，它在我們之外，我們正在繼續前進，事情應該恢復原樣至正常。歸根結底，這就是我們對今年下半年持樂觀態度的原因。

Thank you very much for all that detail. My second question is on West Elk, and you mentioned $70 in the prepared remarks, and I wondered, is that kind of a good number to use on the entire output of West Elk going forward, or is that maybe more specifically for export tons? And so if you could maybe comment on the opportunity from higher prices at West Elk, I would appreciate the additional detail. Thank you very much.

非常感謝您提供的所有細節。我的第二個問題是關於West Elk 的，您在準備好的演講中提到了70 美元，我想知道，這個數字對於West Elk 未來的總產量來說是一個很好的數字，還是更具體地說用於出口噸數？因此，如果您能評論一下 West Elk 更高價格帶來的機會，我將不勝感激。非常感謝。

Yeah, Luke, it's a great question. I'll start off on trailers. I'll have some thoughts as well. The opportunity at West Elk is that -- it produces at a relatively low cost, a great high-quality product sought after in the export thermal markets. It plays incredibly well in the industrial market as well. As we've been discussing, we are transitioning to the BC, from where we have been producing for some time and producing very successfully and at low cost.

是的，盧克，這是一個很好的問題。我將從拖車開始。我也會有一些想法。West Elk 的機會在於－它以相對較低的成本生產出在出口熱力市場上受到追捧的優質產品。它在工業市場上也表現得非常出色。正如我們一直在討論的那樣，我們正在向 BC 過渡，我們已經在那裡生產了一段時間，並且生產非常成功且成本低廉。

We're going to see an improvement in the quality of the coal, a higher BTU, a higher quality product that we think will be even more sought after. So, you know -- expansion on the top line. As we continue to build out at West Elk, we have deployed additional continuous miner units to get the BC developed. So as a result of that, we've seen a temporary step up in unit costs at West Elk here as we are finishing out the build-out.

我們將看到煤炭品質的提高、BTU 的提高、產品品質的提高，我們認為這些產品將更受追捧。所以，你知道－營收擴張。隨著我們繼續在 West Elk 進行建設，我們部署了額外的連續採礦機來開發 BC。因此，當我們完成擴建時，我們看到 West Elk 的單位成本暫時上升。

We expect to be producing from the long haul in the BC in mid-2025. At that time, we're going to see a step down in cost. So even as we sit here today, with a lower realization product, we indicated legacy products at $25 to $35 below on a carryover basis into this year from last year where we struggled a little bit, but we're still generating EBITDA there and feel very good about where West Elk is going as we move forward.

我們預計將於 2025 年中期在 BC 省進行長途製作。到那時，我們將看到成本下降。因此，即使我們今天坐在這裡，對於變現率較低的產品，我們表示傳統產品的價格比去年低25 至35 美元，從去年結轉到今年，我們在去年遇到了一點困難，但我們仍然在那裡產生EBITDA，並且感覺非常了解 West Elk 在我們前進過程中的發展方向。

And look at that, pricing really pertains to about 2 million tons of North American industrial business. And so as those legacy contracts roll off, and really they're averaging around $40, and as the new contracts sort of kick in and they're averaging above $70, that's a significant step up on that increment.

看看這個，定價確實涉及約 200 萬噸的北美工業業務。因此，隨著這些舊合約的到期，實際上它們的平均價格約為 40 美元，而隨著新合約的開始，它們的平均價格超過 70 美元，這是這一增量的顯著進步。

We do, of course, expect to have additional volumes that we'll move into the seaboard market, and, the netbacks there will be determined by where the seaboard market trends. But clearly that base of North American business is significant for West Elk. It provides visibility and obviously a great step up. So when you get into mid-2025, we'll get into the thicker coal in the BC, costs could come down $15 to $20.

當然，我們確實希望有更多的銷售進入沿海市場，那裡的淨值將取決於沿海市場的趨勢。但顯然，北美業務基地對 West Elk 來說意義重大。它提供了可見性，顯然是一個巨大的進步。因此，到 2025 年中期，我們將在 BC 省生產較厚的煤炭，成本可能會下降 15 至 20 美元。

We're talking about very substantial margin expansion, and West Elk really becomes a much greater contributor, as we progress into 2025 period, but certainly as we get into mid-2025 and we have that further step down in costs that comes with the much thicker coal in the BC and the 400 to 500 BTUs of higher quality. So West Elk is becoming, again, an increasingly site disoriented.

我們談論的是非常可觀的利潤率擴張，隨著我們進入2025 年期間，West Elk 確實成為了一個更大的貢獻者，但當然，隨著我們進入2025 年中期，我們的成本進一步下降，隨之而來的是BC 省的煤較厚，品質較高，為 400 至 500 BTU。因此，West Elk 再次變得越來越迷失方向。

This is very helpful. I appreciate all the color and detail and all the best of luck. Thank you.

這非常有幫助。我欣賞所有的顏色和細節，祝你好運。謝謝。

Chris LaFemina, Jefferies.

克里斯·拉費米納，杰弗里斯。

Hi. Thanks, operator. Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to ask about kind of the capital allocation framework. I mean, the balance sheet is obviously very strong. The outlook for the second half is that you should be highly cash generative, but let's assume we have some kind of nasty macro downturn.

你好。謝謝，接線生。嗨，大家好。感謝您提出我的問題。我只是想問一下資本配置框架。我的意思是，資產負債表顯然非常強勁。下半年的前景是，你應該能夠產生大量現金，但我們假設我們遇到了某種嚴重的宏觀經濟衰退。

Should we assume in that case that the accumulation of cash on the balance sheet would then be used for buybacks? Let's assume that you're in a situation where free cash flow is negative because coal prices have gone down a lot.

在這種情況下，我們是否應該假設資產負債表上累積的現金將用於回購？假設您處於自由現金流為負的情況，因為煤炭價格大幅下跌。

Is that -- would that be the strategy then to deploy that capital on the balance sheet to fund buybacks? Or in that scenario, do you want to maintain the very strong balance sheet because of the risks of further weakness in prices and weaker cash flow? I'm just trying to understand how you use that cash in a downturn.

那麼，這會是在資產負債表上部署這些資本來為回購提供資金的策略嗎？或者在這種情況下，由於價格進一步疲軟和現金流疲軟的風險，您是否希望維持非常強勁的資產負債表？我只是想了解在經濟低迷時期你如何使用這些現金。

I mean, obviously, in an upturn, the issue is your share price goes higher, which is a nice problem to have. But in a higher share price environment, it seems like the strategy is to not really aggressively buy back shares. So I'm trying to understand what happens in a downturn. Thanks.

我的意思是，顯然，在經濟好轉時，問題是你的股價會走高，這是一個很好的問題。但在股價較高的環境下，策略似乎不是真正積極回購股票。所以我試著去了解經濟低迷時期會發生什麼事。謝謝。

Hey, Chris. This is Paul. I'll give you my thoughts. Matt wants to answer the honors be up a little bit. I'll let you know. I'll start out. Several tenets of our capital growth program was to effectively return 100% of discretionary cash on shareholders. This hasn't changed.

嘿，克里斯。這是保羅。我會給你我的想法。馬特想回答一下榮譽問題。我會讓你知道的。我就開始吧。我們資本成長計畫的幾個原則是有效地將 100% 的可自由支配現金回饋給股東。這一點沒有改變。

Conversely, as we've said many times in the past, the allocation formula, which is to say the split between dividends and share repurchases, has always been as flexible and dynamic as it should be. As we look ahead, I think there's three reasons we've seen for heavier share repurchases going forward. First is the economic fundamentals, as you pointed out.

相反，正如我們過去多次說過的那樣，分配公式，即股息和股票回購之間的分配，一直是應有的靈活和動態。展望未來，我認為我們看到了未來加大股票回購力道的三個原因。正如您所指出的，首先是經濟基本面。

The metallurgical segment, especially on the supply side, remains supportive. And the global markets seem to be relatively in balance. And second, the ongoing improvement in operational execution in coming quarters gives us a lot of comfort knowing where we're headed. And I think part of the third piece of this is the current phase we are in the commodity cycle, which we argue is somewhat of a trough, which makes our stock a good buy.

冶金業，尤其是供應方面，仍然具有支撐性。全球市場似乎相對平衡。其次，未來幾季營運執行的持續改善讓我們更加放心，知道我們的發展方向。我認為第三部分的一部分是我們所處的大宗商品週期的當前階段，我們認為這在某種程度上是一個低谷，這使得我們的股票成為一個不錯的選擇。

So, as you would expect, the greater the pullback of equity, the more likely we'd be putting some of the cash we built on the balance sheet last year to work. That was the reason we did what you recall. We wanted to be set up for these kind of conditions. And actually, the board's thinking on this is dynamic, so I don't want to be too specific as to what we'd likely spend on different equity models. But I also want to reiterate that when we built that cash balance, we've always said our minimum cash level was about $200 million.

因此，正如您所期望的那樣，股本回檔幅度越大，我們就越有可能將去年在資產負債表上建立的部分現金投入使用。這就是我們做了你記得的事情的原因。我們希望能夠適應這種情況。事實上，董事會對此的想法是動態的，所以我不想太具體地說明我們可能在不同的股權模型上花費什麼。但我還想重申，當我們建立現金餘額時，我們總是說我們的最低現金水準約為 2 億美元。

That allowed us to keep a pretty robust [10 time b1 ] plan in place during blackouts. So, in the end, I think it's not quite as binary as you laid out. I think this is more of a continuum along which I'd say the use of cash as the equity goes down is probably more prevalent than equity goes up when you slow down. But I think the good news is, and what I'm very proud of, is we set ourselves up for this very item to occur. There's been a downturn in the market, but that's why we built the excess cash on the balance sheet.

這使我們能夠在停電期間保持相當穩健的 [10 次 b1 ] 計劃。所以，最後，我認為它並不像你所說的那麼二元。我認為這更像是一個連續體，沿著這個連續體，我想說，當股本下降時使用現金可能比當你放慢速度時股本上升時更普遍。但我認為好消息是，令我感到非常自豪的是，我們為這項計畫的發生做好了準備。市場低迷，但這就是我們在資產負債表上建立過剩現金的原因。

Matt, do you have --

馬特，你有嗎--

I guess the only thing I'd add, Chris, is you look at our cost position compared to our peers. In a situation where cash flows go negative for us, it's going to be extremely painful for others. So we would probably view that as something that can't really be sustained for very long.

克里斯，我想我唯一要補充的是，你看看我們與同行相比的成本狀況。當我們的現金流為負值時，對其他人來說將是極其痛苦的。因此，我們可能會認為這種情況無法真正持續很長時間。

And so, I think we still have room where we can deploy some of that cash that we built on the balance sheet last year and still maintain a very conservative profile, understanding that, the conditions that are leading to negative margins are probably going to be more short-term in nature.

因此，我認為我們仍然有空間可以部署我們去年在資產負債表上建立的一些現金，並且仍然保持非常保守的形象，因為我們明白，導致負利潤率的條件可能會是本質上更短期。

Yeah, and Chris, I just said, if we simply see a pullback in pricing, in coking coal prices, we aren't at that point where you said, that extreme point where you have negative margins, you just have some compression. But we continue to believe that $200 million is sufficient, right? If we're generating a margin, and a solid margin where prices are today, even with a little further weakness, really comfortable with the idea of $200 million, being sufficient amounts of cash, given very low debt levels, very low capital requirements, and CapEx requirements. So we feel really pretty positively about the fact that, dry powder really will be available to us.

是的，克里斯，我剛才說過，如果我們只是看到焦煤價格的定價回落，我們就沒有達到你所說的那種利潤率為負的極端點，你只是受到了一些壓縮。但我們仍然認為 2 億美元就足夠了，對嗎？如果我們能夠產生利潤，而且是目前價格的穩定利潤，即使進一步疲軟，我們對 2 億美元的想法感到非常滿意，因為債務水平非常低，資本要求非常低，因此擁有足夠的現金，和資本支出要求。因此，我們對我們確實可以獲得乾粉這一事實感到非常積極。

Yeah, I mean, there's no question, you guys are in a position of strength in a downturn with the balance sheet. And I would agree, maintaining a strong balance sheet is obviously critical. And, Deck, you made a point earlier about pricing being in the cost curve, right?

是的，我的意思是，毫無疑問，你們在資產負債表低迷時期處於有利地位。我同意，維持強勁的資產負債表顯然至關重要。而且，Deck，你之前說過定價是在成本曲線中的，對吧？

I mean, if you look at assets in Queensland today, some of these mines are significantly loss-making already. So hopefully as you alluded to, that we're somewhere near a bottom in pricing, in which case -- you guys could be sitting here generating cash flow through the cycle, and maintaining a strong balance sheet, and delivering capital returns, even in a weaker market, which is kind of the ideal setup on paper. And if you actually deliver on that, it probably works well for your stock. So thank you for all that, and best of luck.

我的意思是，如果你看看今天昆士蘭的資產，其中一些礦山已經大幅虧損。因此，希望正如您所提到的，我們的定價接近底部，在這種情況下，您可以坐在這裡在整個週期中產生現金流，保持強勁的資產負債表，並提供資本回報，即使在市場疲軟，這在紙面上是一種理想的設定。如果你真的做到了這一點，它可能對你的股票很有效。謝謝你所做的一切，祝你好運。

Thank you, Chris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

Nathan Martin, The Benchmark Company.

內森馬丁，基準公司。

Hey, thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to come back to the coking coal segment just for a second, maintain full-year shipment guidance there. By my math, it means you're going to need to ship roughly, call it 2.4 million tons a quarter in the second half, just to kind of reach the low end of that range.

嘿，謝謝，接線生。大家早安。我想暫時回到煉焦煤領域，維持全年出貨量指引。根據我的計算，這意味著下半年你將需要大約每季運輸 240 萬噸，才能達到範圍的低端。

First is that level achievable from a production perspective? Obviously, we just saw a record production quarter in 2Q. I don't know if that repeats or not. So there's a question there on the production side. I think you guys also mentioned maybe some inventory there -- I think 160,000 tons slipped in the third quarter that's already moved, but any inventory there that would help that as well.

首先，從生產角度來看，這個水準可以達到嗎？顯然，我們剛剛在第二季度看到了創紀錄的產量季度。不知道會不會重複。所以在製作方面有一個問題。我想你們也提到了那裡可能有一些庫存——我認為第三季減少了 16 萬噸已經轉移的庫存，但那裡的任何庫存也會有所幫助。

And then maybe secondly, just talk to your confidence again around the logistics chain, both the rail and port to handle that additional coal in the second half. And then finally, maybe really just cadence of shipments, 3Q versus 4Q. That'd be great. Thank you

其次，再次談談你對物流鏈的信心，包括鐵路和港口，以便在下半年處理額外的煤炭。最後，也許真的只是出貨節奏，第三季與第四季。那太好了。謝謝

Thanks, Nathan. Yeah, you hit on a lot of different items, so I'll touch on a few of them. Operationally, we've positioned the MET portfolio at that level where we delivered record production. We expect to be producing at those higher levels as we continue to move forward. We've talked a lot about the opportunity of Leer South transitioning and finishing the last long haul panel in District 1 and transitioning to District 2 where we're going to see an improvement in coal seam thickness of 15% to 20%. We expect to get there towards the beginning of the fourth quarter.

謝謝，內森。是的，您提到了很多不同的項目，所以我將討論其中的一些。在營運方面，我們將 MET 產品組合定位在我們實現創紀錄產量的水平。隨著我們繼續前進，我們期望能夠達到更高的產量水平。我們已經討論了很多關於 Leer South 過渡和完成 1 區最後一個長途面板以及過渡到 2 區的機會，在那裡我們將看到煤層厚度改善 15% 到 20%。我們預計將在第四季初實現這一目標。

That will have an impact and benefit for us as well. So as a result of the production we saw in Q2 and with the constrained shipments that we had given the Port of Baltimore collapse we did build inventory. I think we were around 350,000 or 400,000 tons of inventory built in the MET segment. We indicated that -- we just missed a couple of vessels at the end of Q2.

這也會對我們產生影響和好處。因此，由於我們在第二季度看到的生產以及巴爾的摩港崩潰造成的發貨受限，我們確實建立了庫存。我認為我們在 MET 領域的庫存量約為 350,000 或 400,000 噸。我們表示——我們在第二季末錯過了幾艘船。

So that gives us a jumpstart as we go into Q3 and beyond. But clearly we've got to work very closely with our rail providers and port providers. But we have confidence that we're going to be able to achieve the levels that we've seen are going to need in the back half of the year to get to the guidance level.

因此，當我們進入第三季及以後時，這為我們提供了一個快速啟動的機會。但顯然我們必須與鐵路提供者和港口提供者密切合作。但我們有信心，我們將能夠在今年下半年達到指導水準所需的水平。

And we've always envisioned that step up, right? This is not new. We've always envisioned the fact that we're going to need to step up as we get to sort of 9 million tons and perhaps beyond that 9 million ton level.

我們一直期待著這項進步，對吧？這並不新鮮。我們一直在設想，當我們達到 900 萬噸甚至超過 900 萬噸的水平時，我們需要加大力度。

And so, look, this is something we've been working on for a very long time. Like, frankly, rail service is looking good and solid and we're -- getting the train set. When you look at production so far in [Panel] 8, while we haven't quite made it to District 2 in the thicker coal, conditions in Panel 8 were stair-stepping towards District 2 and so far really progressing very well in terms of production at Leer South.

所以，看，這是我們長期以來一直在努力的事情。坦白說，鐵路服務看起來不錯而且穩定，我們正在準備火車。當您查看[面板] 8 迄今為止的生產情況時，雖然我們還沒有完全達到第 2 區的較厚煤層，但第 8 區的條件正在逐步向第 2 區邁進，並且到目前為止，在Le​​er South生產。

So lots of positives -- So we do feel confident that, A, the coal will be there and that, B, the rail will be there to sort of move it. And, of course, feeling very confident about the terminal side of the equation as well.

如此多的積極因素——所以我們確實有信心，A，煤炭將在那裡，B，鐵路將在那裡移動它。當然，我對等式的末端也非常有信心。

And, Nate, I'd like to hit on it. You know, we started panel 8 and he described stair-stepping to District 2. Panel 8 is close or relative proximity starting to be in the direction of where we're going for District 2. We started in that panel at the beginning of the quarter. The ramp was great in production here several weeks in in that panel at Leer South and has continued to be very positive.

而且，內特，我想談談它。你知道，我們開始第 8 小組，他描述了通往第 2 區的階梯。第 8 組很接近或相對接近，開始朝著我們前往第 2 區的方向。我們在本季初開始討論該小組。Leer South 的面板在幾週內的生產效果非常好，並且一直非常積極。

So once again, it's just giving us further confidence that if we get into District 2 in Q4, we're going to see that step up in the opportunity and production levels at Leer South as we go forward.

因此，這再次讓我們更有信心，如果我們在第四季度進入第 2 區，隨著我們的前進，我們將看到 Leer South 的機會和生產水平不斷提高。

Appreciate that, guys. Any thoughts on the cadence of shipments in 3Q versus 4Q? Any remnants of issues at the port that would slow things down in 3Q versus 4Q? Anything to consider there?

很欣賞這一點，夥計們。對第三季與第四季的出貨節奏有何想法？與第四季相比，港口是否有任何會導致第三季進度放緩的問題？那裡有什麼需要考慮的嗎？

Yeah, no, I think the recovery from the port has been good. I think there's no real significant or material remnant carryovers, if any. So I think that cadence at that 2.4 million ton level by quarter, would be a heavy focus for us as we go forward.

是的，不，我認為港口的恢復情況很好。我認為沒有真正重大或實質的殘留結轉（如果有的話）。因此，我認為每季 240 萬噸的節奏將是我們前進的重點。

Okay, thanks, John. And then, Matt, you made some comments in your prepared remarks on the severance rebate. Maybe we could just get a little more color there. What's kind of the potential dollar amount there over time? Maybe what time period do you expect those rebates to occur? And I think you said some of it will depend upon market conditions.

好的，謝謝，約翰。然後，馬特，你在準備好的言論中對遣散費回扣發表了一些評論。也許我們可以在那裡多一點顏色。隨著時間的推移，潛在的美元金額是多少？也許您預計這些回饋會在什麼時間段發生？我認為你說過其中一些將取決於市場狀況。

Yeah, Nate, in terms of the rebate, first, I think I want to reiterate a couple things I mentioned in my comments, about this being a win-win for both Arch and the state. Obviously, the benefits for us are pretty clear today with the rebate that we've gotten and with Leer South online. For the state, our severance tax levels, if you look at what we've paid since the time that Leer South came up, the loan wall came up there, we've paid nearly $200 million in severance taxes over that time.

是的，Nate，就回扣而言，首先，我想我想重申我在評論中提到的幾件事，這對 Arch 和國家來說是雙贏的。顯然，今天我們獲得的回扣和Leer South 線上服務為我們帶來的好處非常明顯。對於州政府來說，我們的遣散費水平，如果你看看自 Leer South 出現以來我們所支付的金額，貸款牆出現在那裡，我們在那段時間支付了近 2 億美元的遣散費。

That's about a for our mining portfolio today, that's about a 70% increase on an annual average compared to what we were paying back in 2019. So, clearly, we think this has been a good thing for both sides. There is a lot of work that goes into this, and I want to commend the folks at our operations and our tax department for what they've done to bring us to where we are today.

這相當於我們今天的採礦投資組合，與我們 2019 年的投資回報相比，年平均成長了約 70%。因此，顯然，我們認為這對雙方來說都是一件好事。這方面有很多工作要做，我想讚揚我們營運部門和稅務部門的工作人員，他們為我們取得今天的成就所做的一切。

So, with all of that said, as we look ahead, I think the good news is we've taken -- I think, the largest part of the benefit already. I mean, what we have coming in the future will likely end up being overall smaller than what we've gotten so far. Obviously, that makes some sense. We've had to qualify expenditures going back several years, so this first bite was going to be the biggest.

因此，儘管如此，當我們展望未來時，我認為好消息是我們已經獲得了——我認為，已經獲得了最大的收益。我的意思是，我們未來所取得的成果可能最終會比我們迄今為止所取得的成果還要小。顯然，這是有一定道理的。我們必須對幾年前的支出進行資格審查，所以這第一口將是最大的。

As we look at the rest of this year, we think there's probably an opportunity for something along the lines of roughly half of what we got in Q2. And then, as we look at next year, clearly, things like what the market price is and what the ultimate level of severance tax we pay is going to weigh into this.

當我們展望今年剩餘時間時，我們認為可能有機會實現大約第二季一半的機會。然後，當我們展望明年時，顯然，諸如市場價格是多少以及我們支付的遣散費的最終水平之類的事情將對此產生影響。

But, as we sit here today, looking like something in the call it $5 million to $10 million range for next year. And then, again, depending on how markets progress, there could be some additional amounts that trail into 2026 as well.

但是，當我們今天坐在這裡時，看起來明年的預算將達到 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。然後，根據市場進展情況，2026 年可能還會有一些額外的金額。

Okay, that's very helpful. And then, I also wanted to just ask about the CapEx reduction. Matt, what kind of drove that?

好的，這非常有幫助。然後，我還想問一下資本支出減少的情況。馬特，是什麼樣的動力？

Really, just looking at what we've experienced for the first half of the year, clearly from where we set our guidance at the beginning of the year, where pricing was at the beginning of the year, our results haven't been what we planned, quite frankly. And we're doing everything we can to defer costs and capital in order to right-size the cash flows as much as possible. So, really, just taking things that we thought we would be spending this year and trying to defer those to future periods wherever we can.

真的，只要看看我們上半年的經歷，顯然從我們年初設定的指導，年初的定價來看，我們的結果並沒有達到預期的效果。我們正在盡一切努力推遲成本和資本，以便盡可能調整現金流規模。所以，實際上，只是把我們認為今年會花的事情放在一邊，並盡可能將它們推遲到未來的時期。

Okay, got it. I appreciate that. I'll leave it there. Best of luck in the third quarter.

好的，明白了。我很欣賞這一點。我會把它留在那裡。祝第三季好運。

Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

Hi, thank you for taking my question. Maybe starting off on the thermal side, the expectation is that the contribution from the thermal side is going to improve in the second half versus the first half. Can you maybe provide a little more color how much of an improvement we could see?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。也許從熱力方面開始，預計熱力方面的貢獻將在下半場比上半場有所改善。您能否提供更多的顏色，我們可以看到多少改進？

Actually, I guess I'll let Katja start out here. We can have others weigh in as well. I guess we've already talked about West Elk and even in this challenged environment that they have, they're generating EPA and we've indicated that we see the lion's share in the improvement occurring with where we're at in the PRB.

事實上，我想我會讓 Katja 從這裡開始。我們也可以讓其他人參與。我想我們已經討論過 West Elk，即使在他們面臨的這個充滿挑戰的環境中，他們也在生成 EPA，我們已經表示，我們看到我們在 PRB 中所取得的最大進步。

We've done a lot of work over the first half of the year, really the first three, four months of the year where we saw the significant step down in demand. We came into the year kind of targeting 55 million tons of shipments.

今年上半年我們做了很多工作，實際上是今年的前三、四個月，我們看到需求大幅下降。我們今年的目標是出貨量 5500 萬噸。

We already had 50 million tons committed, but then with the challenging winter and low natural gas prices, and the rest of the basin, we've seen just a tremendous amount of pressure. The team at Black Thunder did a great job. They've done a great job of reducing the headcount aggressively. They're doing that through attrition and furloughs. They're parking equipment, optimizing maintenance with the parked equipment.

我們已經承諾了 5000 萬噸，但隨著冬季的挑戰和天然氣價格的走低，以及盆地的其他地區，我們看到了巨大的壓力。Black Thunder 團隊做得非常出色。他們在積極削減員工人數方面做得很好。他們透過自然減員和休假來做到這一點。它們是停車設備，優化停放設備的維護。

But what we did see is we had higher production and stripping than we had in shipments. And so we saw a build in pit inventory. That pit inventory, we've incurred the cost to uncover that coal. We have probably twice as much as we would typically have. We're at 8 million tons. We probably typically would run normally around 4 million tons.

但我們確實看到，我們的產量和剝離量高於發貨量。因此我們看到了礦坑庫存的增加。那個礦坑庫存，我們已經承擔了發現煤炭的成本。我們擁有的數量可能是通常情況下的兩倍。我們的產量是800萬噸。我們通常會正常運作 400 萬噸左右。

So as we get into the back half of the year, what we expect to see is an improvement in shipments compared to our production levels. And as a result, we're going to get the benefit of having incurred the cost to uncover that coal that we incurred in the first half of the year. We'll get that benefit and reduce costs in the back half of the year.

因此，當我們進入今年下半年時，我們預計出貨量將比我們的生產水準有所改善。因此，我們將受益於今年上半年產生的煤炭開採成本。我們將在今年下半年獲得這項好處並降低成本。

So with all that said, I think if you look at our thermal segment, we expected to recover all the losses it had and be modestly cash positive as we step into the back half of the year.

話雖如此，我認為如果你看看我們的熱力部門，我們預計將彌補所有損失，並在進入今年下半年時保持適度的現金正值。

Yeah, Katja, I mean, one of the things we've said is, look, at West Elk, the die is kind of cast. We kind of, for the most part, have good visibility there. And if you're looking at sort of high single digit EBITDA contributions from West Elk each quarter. That continues, but the very thing that was the headwind for the PRB, which was -- stripping and inducing or incurring more costs than we otherwise would have because we were stripping more times than we were actually shipping, becomes a tailwind in the back half.

是的，Katja，我的意思是，我們說的一件事是，看，在 West Elk，骰子是鑄成的。在大多數情況下，我們在那裡擁有良好的能見度。如果您查看 West Elk 每個季度的高單位數 EBITDA 貢獻。這種情況仍在繼續，但 PRB 的逆風，即剝離並導致或產生比我們原本會更多的成本，因為我們剝離的次數比實際運輸的次數多，在後半段成為順風。

So suddenly you've got high single digits coming from West Elk. And then on top of that, we should have a meaningfully positive contribution from the PRB. So while that's not a lot of clarity, I would say this, that it is a meaningful contribution in the back half.

突然之間，你就得到了來自西麋鹿的高個位數數據。除此之外，PRB 也應該為我們做出有意義的正面貢獻。因此，雖然這不是很清楚，但我想說的是，這是後半部分的有意義的貢獻。

The simple fact of shipping, 2 million to 4 million additional tons that we've incurred the lion's share of the cost in the back half will be very significant for PRB margins. So the two together means that once again, we'll be generating, some pretty meaningful cash contributions from the thermo cycle.

運輸的簡單事實是，我們在下半年承擔了大部分成本，增加了 200 萬到 400 萬噸，這對 PRB 的利潤率來說非常重要。因此，兩者結合在一起意味著我們將再次從熱循環中產生一些非常有意義的現金貢獻。

I mean, again, guys, I have a lot of faith and comfort in the (inaudible) and Wyoming. They've become very good at reacting to changes in the market on a very short-term basis. I think what they've done the last two months has set them up very well for the second half of the year.

我的意思是，夥計們，我對（聽不清楚）和懷俄明州充滿信心和安慰。他們非常擅長在短期內對市場變化做出反應。我認為他們過去兩個月所做的一切都為今年下半年做好了準備。

We'll have the mine right size. We'll have the effects of the tailwind from the inventory change. We'll do what we've done well, and that's adjust. Whether that means furloughing or whatever we have to do to cut costs, converting to reclamation or all those other things that we've done well the last couple of years, we'll do well again. So I still feel pretty good about what's going on and that the (inaudible) can fill it up

我們將擁有合適尺寸的礦井。我們將受到庫存變化的推動作用。我們會做我們已經做得很好的事情，那就是調整。無論這意味著休假還是我們必須採取的任何措施來削減成本、轉向填海或我們過去幾年做得很好的所有其他事情，我們都會再次做得很好。所以我仍然對正在發生的事情感覺很好並且（聽不清楚）可以填補它

And maybe quickly on Leer South with the mine entering District 2 and the production or the seams being thicker, heading into next year, is it fair to assume 3.5 million tons plus is where Leer South could shake up?

也許在 Leer South 很快就會進入第 2 區，產量或煤層會變得更厚，進入明年，假設 350 萬噸以上是 Leer South 可能會發生變化的情況是否公平？

Actually, I think we're not providing specific guidance, but once again, with a meaningful improvement in that crossing thickness, 15% to 20% improvement from what we've incurred in District 1, we have high expectations for Leer South and what you're describing absolutely, from my perspective, without having provided any formal guidance yet is absolutely within the range of expectations.

事實上，我認為我們沒有提供具體的指導，但再一次，隨著交叉口厚度的顯著改善，比我們在第1 區發生的情況改善15% 到20%，我們對Leer South 抱有很高的期望，以及什麼從我的角度來看，您的描述絕對是在沒有提供任何正式指導的情況下，但絕對在預期範圍內。

And the guidance we did provide, as you'll recall, is kind of 3 million tons this year, or at least a 3 million tons run rate. So, look, if we go from a 3 million ton run rate, so 750,000 tons per quarter, and we get the higher yields that we anticipate in District 2, then obviously it implies a meaningful step up from that 3 million ton level. But again, as John said, no formal guidance at this point.

正如您所記得的，我們確實提供的指導今年是 300 萬噸，或至少是 300 萬噸的運行速度。因此，看，如果我們以300 萬噸的運行速度（即每季度75 萬噸）為基礎，並且我們在第2 區獲得了預期的更高產量，那麼顯然這意味著從300 萬噸水平上取得了有意義的進步。但正如約翰所說，目前還沒有正式的指導。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Michael Dudas, Vertical Research.

邁克爾·杜達斯，垂直研究。

Good morning, gentlemen. John, maybe you could share a little bit how Baltimore and DTA, how operations are, how the activity's been. Is it back to a more normalized level? There's still fits and starts. How do you assess that, given all the tremendous work that's been done and all the logistical issues that everybody needs to overcome?

早安，先生們。約翰，也許你可以分享一下巴爾的摩和 DTA 的情況、營運情況以及活動情況。是否回到了更正常化的水平？仍然時斷時續。考慮到已經完成的所有巨大工作以及每個人都需要克服的所有後勤問題，您如何評估這一點？

Yeah, Michael. Good question. I think we commented a little bit on it, but to expand further, I think post that bridge collapse, post the closure of the Port of Baltimore, for all practical purposes, that was a significant event, clearly.

是的，邁克爾。好問題。我想我們對此發表了一些評論，但為了進一步擴展，我認為在橋樑倒塌之後，在巴爾的摩港關閉之後，出於所有實際目的，這顯然是一個重大事件。

We talked about it. The logistics team working with our logistics partners did a fabulous job of reacting and responding to that event, keeping the coal flowing, adjusting the coal flows. Our partner, DTA, with 35% ownership in that, stepped up well.

我們討論過。與我們的物流合作夥伴合作的物流團隊出色地應對了這一事件，保持了煤炭流動，並調整了煤炭流量。我們的合作夥伴 DTA 擁有該專案 35% 的所有權，進展順利。

The CSX stepped up well. And so we're real proud of what we were able to achieve in the second quarter, despite the significant challenges. With all that said, the port opened to flow without restriction, essentially, June 10 since that time, I would say everything has really kind of gone back to the traditional flows. And so I don't see any residual impact going forward.

CSX 表現出色。因此，儘管面臨重大挑戰，但我們對第二季的成就感到非常自豪。話雖如此，港口開放流動不受限制，本質上，從6月10日起，我想說一切都真的回到了傳統的流動。因此，我認為未來不會產生任何殘餘影響。

And so we'll work to optimize on the traditional flows. The experience that the team gained through the process, I think, makes them stronger going forward as well. And so, we'll take this, put it behind us, as Paul indicated in his discussion, and move forward and move forward positively. So no residual effect.

因此，我們將努力優化傳統流程。我認為，團隊在這個過程中獲得的經驗也使他們在未來變得更強大。因此，正如保羅在討論中指出的那樣，我們將接受這一點，將其拋在腦後，繼續前進，並積極前進。所以沒有後遺症。

I might maybe add to the fact that, look, DTA performed really well during those challenging times too. And in fact, probably, we have a different appreciation for what's achievable there in terms of throughput, that we can probably achieve higher levels than we thought we could, because again, there was really highly efficient movement out of DTA and an impressive performance by the team there. So we sorted a fair number of things and actually believe that there may be more throughput capacity at both facilities going forward.

我可能會補充這樣一個事實：看，DTA 在那些充滿挑戰的時期也表現得非常好。事實上，我們可能對吞吐量方面可實現的目標有不同的認識，我們可能會達到比我們想像的更高的水平，因為再次，DTA 的移動確實非常高效，並且性能令人印象深刻那裡的團隊。因此，我們對相當多的事情進行了分類，實際上相信這兩個設施未來可能會有更多的吞吐能力。

I mean, in the end, Michael, I don't normally say a lot of good things about (inaudible), but CSX did an amazing job. We ended up having to haul -- I don't know the exact numbers, but roughly 1 million tons from Baltimore down to DTA. Now that's an extra 300 miles of haulage that or us were not set up to do, and they reacted very quickly.

我的意思是，最後，邁克爾，我通常不會說很多好話（聽不清楚），但 CSX 做得非常出色。我們最終不得不將大約 100 萬噸的貨物從巴爾的摩運送到 DTA，我不知道確切的數字。現在，我們並沒有準備好進行額外 300 英里的運輸，但他們反應非常快。

They did an amazing job. So nothing but compliments for the people at Kurtz Bay, the Corps of Engineers that, resolved the problems and solved the tragedy, as well as and the people at DTA.

他們做得非常出色。因此，我只能向庫爾茨灣的人們、解決問題、化解悲劇的工程兵團以及 DTA 的人們表示讚揚。

I'm sure Joe Hendricks will appreciate that shout out from you, Paul. Thank you very much.

我確信喬·亨德里克斯會欣賞你的喊聲，保羅。非常感謝。

Alex Hacking, Citi.

亞歷克斯哈金，花旗銀行。

Yeah. Thanks, Morning. I just wanted to ask on the industry outages that we saw. Unfortunately, there were a couple of outages in the quarter due to fires. I think Grosvenor is fairly well understood,a but what's your perspective on the Longview fire? Like how much capacity has that taken out and for how long, and does that have any impact on your end market? Thank you.

是的。謝謝，早上。我只是想詢問我們所看到的行業中斷情況。不幸的是，該季度因火災發生了幾次停電。我認為格羅夫納很好理解，但是您對朗維尤火災有何看法？例如取消了多少容量以及持續了多長時間，這對您的終端市場有什麼影響嗎？謝謝。

Look, both those events are, very tough, and I feel for both the management teams and the employees. They are difficult places to go. I think you touched on the denominator. It's pretty well known. The issues that Longview or the mine, which is about 10 miles south -- near south, and they had a fire also.

看，這兩件事都非常艱難，我對管理團隊和員工都有同樣的感受。它們是很難去的地方。我認為你觸及了分母。這是眾所周知的。問題出在朗維尤礦場，位於以南約 10 英里處——靠近南方，他們也發生了火災。

As we understand it, the fire is still active. As you think about that mine, it's a long-haul mine somewhat in the size and capacity of our near and near south. So that mine, the long haul came on in December, and we were expecting it to do, call it a round number, 3 million tons in 2024.

據我們了解，火勢仍在持續。當你想到那個礦井時，你會發現它是一個長途礦井，其規模和容量與我們近南地區相當。因此，我的長距離運輸於 12 月開始，我們預計它將在 2024 年達到 300 萬噸。

Those tons are effectively out of the market for Grosvenor. I think as you look at my comments earlier, what we think we'll see is about a 2% to 3% reduction in seaboard metallurgical damages. And, look, it's hard to guess for either of these mines how long the damages will occur, but, my rule of thumb on a mine fire in the US, -- it's a minimum of 90 days, maybe 180 days, if they hit it back.

這些噸位實際上已經退出了格羅夫納的市場。我認為，當您查看我之前的評論時，我們認為我們將看到沿海冶金損失減少約 2% 至 3%。而且，你看，很難猜測這些地雷中的任何一個都會造成多長時間的損害，但是，我對美國礦井火災的經驗法則是，如果它們發生的話，至少需要 90 天，也許 180 天它回來了。

That's if there's no equipment damage or residual problems. Tough situation for those guys. I wish them all the best, but it's going to be, it's going to take some volume out of the market.

這是在沒有設備損壞或殘留問題的情況下。這些人的處境很艱難。我祝他們一切順利，但這將會從市場上奪走一些交易量。

And, Alex, to get back, hey, look, pulling back a little further, obviously, as Paul said, those damages are unfortunate. We talked a fair amount about kind of subdued venture of the market right now, but we would say this. And, look, the market doesn't feel, if it's imbalanced, it's not imbalanced by a significant amount.

而且，亞歷克斯，要回來，嘿，看，再退一步，顯然，正如保羅所說，這些損害是不幸的。我們談了很多關於目前市場風險低迷的問題，但我們會這麼說。而且，你看，市場並沒有感覺到，如果它不平衡，那麼它的不平衡程度也不是很大。

If you look at hot metal production year to date in the world, including China, which is what we tend to track, it's up 1.4%. That's obviously a positive. India continues to click along, despite the fact that they're in the middle of sort of monsoon right now, up 2.7% year to date. The Chinese seaboard imports are on track to be up 10 million tons.

如果你看看今年迄今為止世界各地的鐵水產量，包括我們傾向於追蹤的中國，你會發現它成長了 1.4%。這顯然是積極的。儘管印度目前正處於季風期，但今年迄今已成長 2.7%，但印度仍持續維持成長動能。中國沿海進口量可望增加1000萬噸。

And while a third of that or so is sort of lower quality, volume from Russia and they're being opportunistic, two-thirds of that is higher quality seaboard. So that's a positive. On the supply side, you've got Australia, the US, and Canada in aggregate, which is, of course where all the high quality coal comes from in the seaboard market, up only about 1 million tons.

雖然其中大約三分之一是來自俄羅斯的品質較低、數量較低的產品，而且他們是投機取巧的，但其中三分之二是品質較高的沿海產品。所以這是積極的。在供應方面，澳洲、美國和加拿大加在一起，當然所有優質煤炭都來自沿海市場，僅增加了約100萬噸。

So, again that's supportive. We talked about the mine outages of 2% to 3%, which are really going to hit more sort of back half of the year. So, look, the reality is that there are a lot of positives here. If, in fact, we start to see demand reassert itself, we could indeed see a pretty quick move in the markets.

所以，這又是支持性的。我們談到了 2% 到 3% 的礦場停電，這確實會在今年下半年發生。所以，看，現實是這裡有很多正面積極的一面。事實上，如果我們開始看到需求重新出現，我們確實可以看到市場出現相當快速的波動。

Now, if they stay down for longer, we're really sanguine about that, right? We've talked about where we are on the cost curve. A little pressure, a little rationalization of high-cost supply is good for any market environment. So that's great if it plays out that way. You know, but we are looking at an environment that feels relatively well kind of calibrated right now.

現在，如果他們停留的時間更長，我們對此真的很樂觀，對吧？我們已經討論了我們在成本曲線上的位置。高成本供應的一點壓力、一點合理化對於任何市場環境都是有利的。如果事情能這樣發展那就太好了。你知道，但我們現在正在尋找一個感覺相對良好的校準環境。

Would reiterate again that we have had great, -- interest, continue to have great interest from Asian buyers. We've talked a lot about Vietnam, Indonesia. We're now looking at a major buyer in Malaysia, and that is progressing well in addition. So, there are a lot of positives out there.

再次重申，亞洲買家對我們表現出極大的興趣，並將繼續表現出極大的興趣。我們談了很多關於越南、印尼的話題。我們現在正在馬來西亞尋找一個主要買家，而且進展順利。所以，有很多正面的一面。

And we'll finally say this, that while the market might be a bit subdued, we're getting no pushback on volume, which I think is always indicative of the fact the market is relatively well-balanced. It's really everyone wants their coal, is taking their coal. They're just not buying with urgency. So, feel pretty good about what we're seeing out there in the market for us.

最後我們要說的是，雖然市場可能有點低迷，但成交量沒有受到阻礙，我認為這總是顯示出市場相對平衡的事實。事實上，每個人都想要他們的煤炭，都在拿走他們的煤炭。他們只是不緊急購買。因此，對我們在市場上看到的東西感到非常滿意。

Thanks. And I guess just to follow-up on those comments, Deck, like the logical conclusion would be that the Asian mills are just destocking, right? Because China imports are up. India's steel production is running strong, growing us out. But the Met Coal price has, been falling, fairly consistently now for a few weeks. Are we effectively in a destocking moment?

謝謝。我想，為了跟進這些評論，Deck，邏輯結論是亞洲鋼廠只是在去庫存，對嗎？因為中國的進口量增加了。印度的鋼鐵生產強勁，使我們不斷壯大。但近幾週來，Met 煤炭價格一直持續下跌。我們是否正處於去庫存的時刻？

I do think that's right, Alex. And again, it doesn't mean that this can't persist for a while. Again, I think the Asian buyers aren't buying with great urgency because they see, what's transpiring elsewhere. Obviously, Europe has been, pretty slow and continues to be. Capacity factors there are low. Again, the level of interest from Asian buyers and new Asian buyers, they look longer term, continues to grow.

我確實認為這是對的，亞歷克斯。再說一次，這並不意味著這種情況不能持續一段時間。再說一次，我認為亞洲買家並沒有急於購買，因為他們看到了其他地方正在發生的事情。顯然，歐洲的發展速度一直相當緩慢，並將繼續如此。那裡的容量因素很低。同樣，從長遠來看，亞洲買家和新亞洲買家的興趣水平繼續增長。

And we talked about the three, -- the three Southeast Asian countries where we're seeing a lot of interest. But, in China as well, if you go back three years or so ago, we were mainly just selling to brokers there. Two years ago, we started to sell to sort of midsize producers on a spot basis.

我們談到了三個，我們看到了很多人對這三個東南亞國家感興趣。但是，在中國也是一樣，如果你回到三年前，我們主要只是向那裡的經紀人銷售。兩年前，我們開始向一些中型生產商現貨銷售。

A year ago, we started to do term business with those Chinese buyers. And now we're really talking to the largest steelmakers in the world in China who want, more volume than really we can agree to provide to them because we've got to balance out our customer base. So that does all feel positive. And I don't want to suggest that there's not this -- sort of subdued tone in the market there. It absolutely is. But it feels like if the market's oversupplied, it's oversupplied, very modestly. And I agree that destocking could be a component of that.

一年前，我們開始與這些中國買家開展定期業務。現在我們正在與中國世界上最大的鋼鐵製造商進行交談，他們想要的產量超出了我們實際同意提供的數量，因為我們必須平衡我們的客戶群。所以這一切都讓人感覺正面。我並不是說那裡的市場不存在這種低迷的基調。絕對是。但感覺就像市場供應過剩，供應過剩，非常適中。我同意去庫存可能是其中的一個組成部分。

Yeah, Alex, the one little piece of color I would add to what Deck said is, and it's something I worry about and watch very carefully. When prices are down and there's no question destocking is occurring, the one thing we're not seeing is pushback. Customers are taking their volume.

是的，亞歷克斯，我要為德克所說的內容添加一點點色彩，這是我擔心並非常仔細觀察的事情。當價格下跌並且毫無疑問正在發生去庫存時，我們沒有看到的一件事就是阻力。客戶正在獲取他們的數量。

And as long as customers take their volume, I don't like when prices are particularly low, at the same time I get nervous very quickly when customers start pushing back. We're not seeing that. So I think, as Deck said, I don't want to be overly optimistic, but I don't think what's going on is bad.

只要客戶接受他們的數量，我就不喜歡價格特別低的時候，同時當客戶開始拒絕時我很快就會感到緊張。我們沒有看到這一點。所以我認為，正如德克所說，我不想過於樂觀，但我不認為正在發生的事情是壞事。

Thanks. I appreciate the color.

謝謝。我很欣賞它的顏色。

Thank you, Alex.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。

(Operator Instructions) I would like to turn the conference back over to Paul Lang for any closing remarks.

（操作員指示）我想將會議轉回保羅·朗（Paul Lang）發表閉幕詞。

I want to thank you, again for your interest in Arch. I hope you will agree that the challenges in the past few months have served to underscore the key aspects of our value proposition, including our low-cost asset base, our exceptionally strong balance sheet, and our ability to act quickly and liberally for changing circumstances, particularly in the marketing and logistics arena.

我想再次感謝您對 Arch 的興趣。我希望您會同意，過去幾個月的挑戰凸顯了我們價值主張的關鍵方面，包括我們的低成本資產基礎、我們異常強勁的資產負債表以及我們針對不斷變化的情況快速、自由地採取行動的能力，特別是在行銷和物流領域。

I want to again commend the Arch team for rising to the challenge of Q2. So far, we plan to build on this positive momentum and maintain our focus on continuous improvement in the operation, while simultaneously driving costs on the entire platform. I have great faith in our team and fully expect that the current period of market softness will set the stage for an even stronger future.

我想再次讚揚 Arch 團隊迎接 Q2 的挑戰。到目前為止，我們計劃在這一積極勢頭的基礎上繼續關注營運的持續改進，同時降低整個平台的成本。我對我們的團隊充滿信心，並完全期望當前的市場疲軟時期將為更強勁的未來奠定基礎。

With that, operator, we'll conclude the call, and we look forward to reporting to the group in October. Stay safe and healthy, everyone.

接線員，我們就這樣結束通話，並期待在 10 月向該小組報告。大家保持安全和健康。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。