Arch Resources Inc (ARCH) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2022 Arch Resources Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Arch Resources 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Deck Slone, Vice President of Strategy. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給戰略副總裁 Deck Slone。請繼續。

Good morning from St. Louis, and thanks for joining us today.

來自聖路易斯的早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。

Before we begin, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call, including statements relating to our expected future business and financial performance, may be considered forward-looking statements according to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Forward-looking statements, by their nature, address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. These uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the annual and quarterly reports that we file with the SEC, may cause our actual future results to be materially different than those expressed in our forward-looking statements. We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by law.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，根據《私人證券訴訟改革法》，在本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述，包括與我們預期的未來業務和財務業績有關的陳述，可能被視為前瞻性陳述。就其性質而言，前瞻性陳述涉及不同程度的不確定性問題。這些不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告中有更詳細的描述，可能導致我們未來的實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。我們不承諾更新我們的前瞻性陳述，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因，法律可能要求的除外。

I'd also like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss this morning at the end of our press release, a copy of which we have posted in the Investors section of our website at archrsc.com.

我還想提醒您，您可以在我們今天上午的新聞稿末尾找到我們計劃討論的非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，我們已將其副本發佈在我們網站的投資者部分在 archrsc.com。

Also participating on this morning's call will be Paul Lang, our CEO; John Drexler, our COO; and Matt Giljum, our CFO. After our formal remarks, we'll be happy to take questions.

參加今天上午電話會議的還有我們的首席執行官 Paul Lang；我們的首席運營官 John Drexler；和我們的首席財務官 Matt Giljum。在正式發言後，我們很樂意回答問題。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Paul. Paul?

有了這個，我現在把電話轉給保羅。保羅？

Thanks, Deck, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Arch, and are glad you could join us on the call today.

謝謝，Deck，大家早上好。我們感謝您對 Arch 的興趣，很高興您今天能加入我們的電話會議。

I'm pleased to report that the Arch team delivered another strong operating and financial performance in Q4, with adjusted EBITDA of $256.5 million due in large part to our core metallurgical segment that had significantly improved sales volumes, unit costs and cash margins. In short, our Q4 results served as the capstone to an exceptional year for Arch Resources. During 2022, the Arch team achieved a record financial performance, delivering full year net income of more than $1.3 billion or $63.88 per diluted share, generating an adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion and reporting operating cash flows of more than $1.2 billion.

我很高興地報告，Arch 團隊在第四季度再次取得了強勁的運營和財務業績，調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.565 億美元，這在很大程度上歸功於我們的核心冶金部門，該部門的銷量、單位成本和現金利潤率都有顯著提高。簡而言之，我們第四季度的業績為 Arch Resources 非凡的一年奠定了基礎。 2022 年，Arch 團隊實現了創紀錄的財務業績，全年淨收入超過 13 億美元或每股攤薄收益 63.88 美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 13 億美元，報告的運營現金流量超過 12 億美元。

We also strengthened the balance sheet, repaying more than 70% of our indebtedness, returning us to a net cash positive position, less than 1 year after completing our Leer South growth project and increasing the balance in our industry-first thermal mine reclamation fund to the initial target level of $136 million. Finally, we relaunched our capital return program, deploying nearly $900 million over the last year, which included almost $515 million in quarterly dividends and avoiding the dilution of approximately 2.9 million shares through buybacks and the settlement of more than 90% of our convertible debt.

我們還加強了資產負債表，償還了超過 70% 的債務，使我們在完成 Leer South 增長項目不到一年後恢復了淨現金正數，並將我們行業首個熱礦復墾基金的餘額增加到1.36 億美元的初始目標水平。最後，我們重新啟動了我們的資本回報計劃，在去年部署了近 9 億美元，其中包括近 5.15 億美元的季度股息，並通過回購和清償我們 90% 以上的可轉換債務避免了約 290 萬股的稀釋。

I'm pleased to report that the team continued to extend its long-standing industry leadership in environmental, social and governance performance during 2022. Setting the standard for ESG excellence, in my view, is one of the keys for our success and part of our social contract. Noting just a few highlights in this arena, we achieved the best safety record in the history of the company, which is approximately 4x better than the industry average. We received just one SMCRA violation across our operating portfolio versus an average of 12 by our peers. And we received the 2022 Excellence and Reclamation Award, the State of Wyoming's highest reclamation honor for the extensive and exemplary work conducted at Coal Creek, where we've now completed roughly 75% of the final reclamation work at that operation in less than 2 years.

我很高興地報告，該團隊在 2022 年繼續擴大其在環境、社會和治理績效方面長期以來的行業領先地位。在我看來，為卓越的 ESG 設定標準是我們成功的關鍵之一，也是我們的一部分我們的社會契約。僅注意到這一領域的一些亮點，我們就取得了公司歷史上最好的安全記錄，比行業平均水平高出約 4 倍。在我們的運營組合中，我們僅收到一次 SMCRA 違規行為，而我們的同行平均為 12 次。我們還獲得了 2022 年卓越填海獎，這是懷俄明州授予的最高填海榮譽，以表彰我們在 Coal Creek 開展的廣泛而堪稱典範的工作，現在我們在不到 2 年的時間內完成了該作業大約 75% 的最終填海工作.

While these are significant list of accomplishments, the work the team did in 2022 to lay the foundation for continued success in 2023 and beyond is equally important. As evidence of that progress, we're guiding to markedly higher sales volumes in our core coking coal franchise in 2023 as well as markedly lower unit costs for the segment. We added 7 world-class Asian steelmaking customers in 2022 for 2023 shipments, thus setting the stage for long-term success in that fast-growing region. We've now contracted about 75% of our projected 2023 coking coal output, inclusive of recent sales and at the midpoint of our guidance. And we further augmented the sales book for our legacy thermal franchise and are now entering into the year in an effectively sold-out position with a significant contract book in the outer years as well.

雖然這些都是重要的成就清單，但團隊在 2022 年為 2023 年及以後的持續成功奠定基礎所做的工作同樣重要。作為這一進展的證據，我們正在指導 2023 年我們核心焦煤特許經營的銷量顯著增加，以及該部門的單位成本顯著降低。我們在 2022 年增加了 7 個世界級的亞洲煉鋼客戶，2023 年出貨量，從而為在這個快速增長的地區取得長期成功奠定了基礎。我們現在已經收縮了我們預計的 2023 年煉焦煤產量的 75%，包括最近的銷售和我們指導的中點。我們進一步增加了我們傳統的熱力特許經營權的銷售賬簿，現在進入這一年時處於有效售罄的狀態，在外部年份也有大量合同賬簿。

Before I move on, I'd like to take a moment to discuss our capital return program, which we relaunched in February 2022. As indicated, we've already used that program to reward shareholders in a very significant manner, deploying almost $900 million over the last year. As a reminder, under the program's allocation model, we target the return of 50% of the prior quarter's discretionary cash flow via dividends and the use of the second 50% of discretionary cash flow on a menu of other value-driving options, including share buybacks. In our view, both the capital return program and the allocation model remain appropriate, durable and well aligned with shareholder interest and preferences. Given this, we fully expect these programs to remain the centerpiece of our value proposition as well as our efforts to maximize value for our shareholders.

在我繼續之前，我想花點時間討論一下我們於 2022 年 2 月重新啟動的資本回報計劃。如前所述，我們已經使用該計劃以非常重要的方式獎勵股東，部署了近 9 億美元在過去的一年裡。提醒一下，根據該計劃的分配模型，我們的目標是通過股息返還上一季度 50% 的可自由支配現金流，並將後 50% 的可自由支配現金流用於一系列其他價值驅動選項，包括股票回購。我們認為，資本回報計劃和分配模式仍然是適當的、持久的，並且與股東的利益和偏好保持一致。鑑於此，我們完全希望這些計劃仍然是我們價值主張的核心，也是我們為股東實現價值最大化的努力。

Now let me take a few minutes to comment on the coal markets before turning the call over to John to provide some additional color on the operations, starting with the seaborne and metallurgical markets. In the past, global hot metal production has acted as a primary driver for coking coal markets, which makes sense. Higher hot metal output means increased demand for coking coal. And that's what makes the current market conditions so interesting. At present, coking coal prices appear well supported even though global hot metal production, excluding China, was down 8.8% in 2022, coupled with the fact that roughly 20% of the global blast furnace capacity, excluding China, is idle. Today, the price for premium coking coal, FOB the vessel in Queensland now stands at $385 per metric ton and the price of High-Vol A coking coal off the U.S. East Coast is being assessed at $325 per metric ton.

現在讓我花幾分鐘時間對煤炭市場發表評論，然後將電話轉給約翰，從海運和冶金市場開始，為運營提供一些額外的色彩。過去，全球鐵水生產一直是焦煤市場的主要驅動力，這是有道理的。更高的鐵水產量意味著對煉焦煤的需求增加。這就是當前市場狀況如此有趣的原因。目前，儘管不包括中國在內的全球鐵水產量在 2022 年下降了 8.8%，而且全球約 20% 的高爐產能（不包括中國）處於閒置狀態，但目前煉焦煤價格似乎受到了良好支撐。如今，優質煉焦煤的價格，昆士蘭船上離岸價現在為每公噸 385 美元，而美國東海岸外的 High-Vol A 煉焦煤的價格估計為每公噸 325 美元。

Moreover, steel market dynamics are starting to show signs of improvement, with hot-rolled coil prices up around 25% in the world's major steel markets just since November. At the same time, the world's idle blast furnace capacity is starting to turn back on in the face of gradually rebounding steel demand, which is also providing additional support for coking coal markets.

此外，鋼鐵市場動態開始出現好轉跡象，僅自11月以來，全球主要鋼鐵市場的熱軋卷價格就上漲了約25%。與此同時，全球閒置高爐產能在鋼材需求逐步回升的情況下開始回暖，也為焦煤市場提供額外支撐。

Arch continues to view under investment in new and replacement coal supplies as the single most compelling support mechanism for the current constructive coal market dynamics. In 2022, Australian coking coal exports were down 5% or more than 9 million metric tons when compared to the already weak levels of 2021. Meanwhile, the second and third largest global suppliers of high-quality coking coal, the United States and Canada, were up only modestly versus 2021 despite strong pricing throughout the course of last year. And both countries continue to significantly undershoot their pre-pandemic production levels.

Arch 繼續將對新的和替代煤炭供應的投資視為當前建設性煤炭市場動態的唯一最引人注目的支持機制。與 2021 年本已疲軟的水平相比，2022 年澳大利亞煉焦煤出口量下降了 5% 或超過 900 萬噸。與此同時，全球第二和第三大優質煉焦煤供應商美國和加拿大，儘管去年全年定價強勁，但與 2021 年相比僅小幅上漲。而且這兩個國家的生產水平繼續大大低於大流行前的水平。

On top of these fundamentals, the war in Ukraine continues to constrain Russian products in the broader market, while injecting greater uncertainty into overall global coal supplies. Added to this, we view the apparent reopening of the Chinese market to Australian coals after 2 years of lockout is a generally positive development. While this change in position by the Chinese will surely trigger some reorganizing of seaborne trade flows back to their natural markets, it does seem to be part of a larger rebalancing of the global coking coal supply-demand equation.

除了這些基本面之外，烏克蘭戰爭繼續制約俄羅斯產品在更廣泛市場的銷售，同時給全球整體煤炭供應帶來更大的不確定性。除此之外，我們認為中國市場在 2 年停產後明顯重新向澳大利亞煤炭開放是一個總體上積極的發展。雖然中國的這種立場變化肯定會引發一些海運貿易流向其自然市場的重組，但這似乎確實是全球煉焦煤供需方程式更大規模再平衡的一部分。

On the thermal side of the business, global markets have corrected significantly in recent weeks with Asian pricing continuing to hold up better than European indices on a relative basis. We believe much of this decline in Europe is attributable to moderating demand for thermal coal in the face of a mild winter, weak economic activity, widespread energy conservation efforts and the increasing availability of LNG imports. At the same time, Asian demand remained strong, and the Newcastle Index is currently trading at $220 per metric ton, which is well above the historical average.

在熱業務方面，最近幾周全球市場出現了顯著調整，亞洲定價相對而言繼續優於歐洲指數。我們認為，歐洲的這種下降在很大程度上歸因於溫和的冬季、疲軟的經濟活動、廣泛的節能工作以及液化天然氣進口供應的增加對動力煤的需求放緩。與此同時，亞洲需求依然強勁，紐卡斯爾指數目前交易價格為每公噸 220 美元，遠高於歷史平均水平。

In summary, with the steps we took last year, Arch is prepared to manage through a period of market weakness should world economic conditions deteriorate further. But just as importantly, we're also exceptionally well positioned to capitalize on the situation when the macro environment strengthens, global growth accelerates and steel markets rebound. In addition, we continue to view the intermediate to longer-term coal market dynamics as constructive given the ongoing underinvestment in the space.

總而言之，根據我們去年採取的措施，如果世界經濟狀況進一步惡化，Arch 已準備好度過一段市場疲軟期。但同樣重要的是，我們也處於非常有利的地位，可以利用宏觀環境增強、全球增長加速和鋼鐵市場反彈的形勢。此外，鑑於該領域的持續投資不足，我們繼續認為中長期煤炭市場動態具有建設性。

Heading into 2023, we plan to keep our eyes squarely on a clear, concise and actionable plan for value creation. We intend to leverage our competitive coking coal portfolio with its expanding customer base in Asia, along with the benefit of our cash-generating legacy thermal assets to again provide significant amounts of discretionary cash through 2023 and beyond. With this, we plan to use that cash to continue to reward stockholders through the clearly articulated tenets of our capital return program.

進入 2023 年，我們計劃將目光投向一個清晰、簡潔和可操作的價值創造計劃。我們打算利用我們具有競爭力的煉焦煤組合及其在亞洲不斷擴大的客戶群，以及我們產生現金的傳統熱資產的優勢，在 2023 年及以後再次提供大量可自由支配的現金。有了這個，我們計劃使用這筆現金通過我們的資本回報計劃明確闡述的原則繼續獎勵股東。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to John Drexler. John?

有了這個，我現在將電話轉給 John Drexler。約翰？

Thanks, Paul, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，保羅，大家早上好。

As Paul just discussed, the Arch team capped off the year in impressive fashion, delivering strong operating results, exceptional progress on our strategic plan and industry-leading execution on our key ESG metrics. Moreover, the team set the stage for further value creation in 2023 by driving significant productivity gains in our core metallurgical segment, managing costs effectively in the face of significant inflationary pressures and expanding our contract book in a strategic and advantageous way.

正如 Paul 剛剛討論的那樣，Arch 團隊以令人印象深刻的方式結束了這一年，帶來了強勁的經營業績，我們的戰略計劃取得了非凡的進展，並且我們在關鍵 ESG 指標上的執行處於行業領先地位。此外，該團隊通過推動我們核心冶金部門的生產力顯著提高、在面臨巨大通脹壓力的情況下有效管理成本以及以戰略性和有利的方式擴大我們的合同書，為 2023 年進一步創造價值奠定了基礎。

And there could be nothing more important than our safety and environmental performance. Our teams use an employee-driven safety process, the cornerstone of which is peer-to-peer observations, and we are set to achieve a critical milestone when we record our 2 millionth observation sometime in the first quarter. Those 2 million observations achieved over the program's 16 years are a true testament to the hard work of the entire Arch team. I couldn't be prouder of the focus, passion and dedication our workforce gives to safety and environmental stewardship. On behalf of the entire management team, I want to thank the Arch workforce for their great and ongoing contributions to the company's performance and success.

沒有什麼比我們的安全和環境績效更重要的了。我們的團隊使用員工驅動的安全流程，其基石是點對點觀察，當我們在第一季度的某個時候記錄我們的第 200 萬次觀察時，我們將實現一個關鍵的里程碑。在該計劃的 16 年中獲得的 200 萬次觀察是對整個 Arch 團隊辛勤工作的真實證明。我為我們的員工對安全和環境管理的專注、熱情和奉獻感到無比自豪。我代表整個管理團隊，感謝 Arch 員工為公司的業績和成功做出的巨大而持續的貢獻。

Let's turn now to a discussion of the key drivers in our fourth quarter operating performance, starting with our core metallurgical segment. As anticipated, the metallurgical segment operated at a much improved productivity level in Q4, driving a 16% sequential increase in shipping volumes and just as importantly, a 13% sequential reduction in average unit costs. Of course, the continued maturation of Leer South factored significantly into these improvements. During Q4, Leer South achieved materially higher longwall advance rates when compared to Q3, capitalizing on much improved geologic conditions and making steady systematic improvements in overall execution across a wide range of fronts. The team is sharply focused on maintaining the strong upward momentum in 2023 and through the first half of Q1, that is exactly what we're seeing from the Leer South team.

現在讓我們從我們的核心冶金部門開始討論第四季度經營業績的主要驅動因素。正如預期的那樣，冶金部門在第四季度的生產率水平有了很大提高，推動運輸量環比增長 16%，同樣重要的是，平均單位成本環比下降了 13%。當然，Leer South 的持續成熟是這些改進的重要因素。在第四季度，與第三季度相比，Leer South 的長壁開採率大幅提高，充分利用了大幅改善的地質條件，並在廣泛的戰線整體執行方面取得了穩步的系統改進。該團隊非常專注於在 2023 年和第一季度上半年保持強勁的上升勢頭，這正是我們從 Leer South 團隊看到的。

As you will have noted, our 2023 guidance reflects coking coal production levels of 9.3 million tons at the midpoint, due in large part to the continued advances at Leer South. As we have indicated in the past, we believe the ultimate normalized run rate for our coking coal portfolio will be around 10 million tons, which we expect to achieve starting in 2024. We are also guiding to per ton coking coal costs of $84 at the midpoint versus the $86.83 per ton we reported for Q4 and $93.61 per ton for the full year of 2022. While this is a significant improvement, we expect these cost figures to continue to trend lower in 2024 as well in keeping with the projected higher production levels. As indicated in the release, we expect our metallurgical shipping volumes to approximate fourth quarter shipping levels before increasing incrementally during 2023's remaining quarters.

正如您所注意到的，我們的 2023 年指引反映了中點 930 萬噸的煉焦煤產量水平，這在很大程度上是由於 Leer South 的持續進步。正如我們過去所指出的，我們認為我們煉焦煤組合的最終標準化運行率將在 1000 萬噸左右，我們預計從 2024 年開始實現。我們還指導每噸煉焦煤成本為 84 美元中點與我們報告的第四季度每噸 86.83 美元和 2022 年全年每噸 93.61 美元相比。雖然這是一個顯著的改善，但我們預計這些成本數字將在 2024 年繼續呈下降趨勢，並與預計的更高生產水平保持一致.正如新聞稿中所指出的，我們預計我們的冶金裝運量將接近第四季度的裝運量水平，然後在 2023 年的剩餘季度逐步增加。

Our legacy thermal segment also made a significant contribution to our Q4 results, although that segment's results were dampened considerably by further deterioration in Western rail service during the quarter. As a result of that poor rail performance, sales volumes declined 2.3 million tons on a sequential basis and undershot our customers' nominations for rail movements still further. Those reduced volume levels also served to pressure unit costs higher, which increased nearly $1 per ton in Q4 relative to Q3. Even with these headwinds, the segment still generated segment level EBITDA of $63.2 million for the quarter, reflecting both the strength of our contract book and the hard work the team has done to enhance our operational flexibility in the face of volume changes.

我們遺留的熱力部門也對我們第四季度的業績做出了重大貢獻，儘管該部門的業績因本季度西部鐵路服務的進一步惡化而大大減弱。由於鐵路表現不佳，銷量環比下降了 230 萬噸，進一步低於客戶對鐵路運輸的提名。這些減少的數量水平也推高了單位成本，與第三季度相比，第四季度每噸成本增加了近 1 美元。即使存在這些不利因素，該部門本季度仍產生了 6320 萬美元的部門級 EBITDA，這既反映了我們的合同簿實力，也反映了團隊為提高我們面對數量變化的運營靈活性所做的辛勤工作。

As a reminder, the legacy thermal segment has now generated a total of nearly $1.3 billion in segment level EBITDA over the course of the past 25 quarters, while expending just $138.6 million in capital, underscoring yet again the power and effectiveness of our harvest strategy. As you are aware, the coal industry is dependent on rail service to execute on our plans, the poor rail performance over the last year in the West has been an extreme disappointment and dampened our results. We've continued to work with the railroads closely, and it will be important that they succeed in addressing their challenges in order for us to fully execute on our plan for our thermal segment in 2023.

提醒一下，在過去的 25 個季度中，傳統的熱力部門現在在部門級 EBITDA 中產生了總計近 13 億美元的 EBITDA，而資本支出僅為 1.386 億美元，再次強調了我們收穫戰略的力量和有效性。如您所知，煤炭行業依賴於鐵路服務來執行我們的計劃，西部地區過去一年糟糕的鐵路表現令人極度失望，並影響了我們的業績。我們繼續與鐵路密切合作，重要的是他們成功應對挑戰，以便我們在 2023 年全面執行我們的熱能部門計劃。

Turning to our contract book. In addition to the strong operational execution, the Arch team made further advances in expanding and strengthening both our metallurgical and thermal contract book during Q4. First, our metallurgical book, inclusive of new contracts signed during the first several weeks of this year, we have now entered into commitments for nearly 75% of our expected 2023 coking coal production at the midpoint of guidance via an advantageous mix of index-based and fixed price contracts.

轉向我們的合同書。除了強大的運營執行力外，Arch 團隊在第四季度進一步擴大和加強了我們的冶金和熱力合同簿。首先，我們的冶金賬簿，包括今年前幾週簽署的新合同，我們現在已經通過基於指數的有利組合，在指導的中點承諾了我們預計 2023 年煉焦煤產量的近 75%和固定價格合同。

Importantly, and as Paul noted, the coking coal books Asian waiting continues to increase as well. During the course of 2023, we signed first-time commitments with 7 leading steel producers in Asia that we could easily foresee becoming stalwarts in our contract book long term. That's important, of course, because Asia is almost certain to be the primary growth driver for steel production over the next several decades. By becoming part of these steel producers coke-making blends and demonstrating the tremendous value and use of our high-quality coking coal products, we are building a strong, durable and beneficial outlet for our future metallurgical output.

重要的是，正如保羅指出的那樣，亞洲等待的煉焦煤書籍也在繼續增加。在 2023 年期間，我們與亞洲 7 家領先的鋼鐵生產商簽署了首次承諾，我們可以很容易地預見到它們將成為我們長期合同簿中的堅定支持者。當然，這很重要，因為亞洲幾乎肯定會成為未來幾十年鋼鐵生產的主要增長動力。通過成為這些鋼鐵生產商煉焦混合物的一部分，並展示我們優質煉焦煤產品的巨大價值和用途，我們正在為我們未來的冶金產量建立一個強大、持久和有益的出口。

The marketing team made great strides in continuing to build out the thermal contract book as well. As a result, we ended the year in an effectively sold-out position for 2023 with our Western operations. Importantly, we already have a significant book of thermal business signed for 2024 and a solid start to contracting in the out years. While we are facing some headwinds in the thermal segment from still weak real service, weak natural gas pricing and the recent pullback in international prices, we believe we are still positioned for another strong year of EBITDA generation from our thermal assets.

營銷團隊在繼續構建熱合同書方面也取得了長足進步。結果，我們的西部業務在 2023 年結束時處於有效售罄狀態。重要的是，我們已經為 2024 年簽署了一份重要的熱力業務書，並在未來幾年開始承包。雖然我們在熱力領域面臨一些不利因素，包括實際服務仍然疲軟、天然氣定價疲軟以及近期國際價格回落，但我們相信我們仍然有能力迎接熱力資產 EBITDA 產生的又一個強勁年份。

As noted in our guidance table for the year, we have already locked in an attractive margin for our thermal segment and would expect that margin to expand further as we lock in pricing on incremental export volumes. However, it's important to point out that the Western rail service remains a significant question mark and is likely to constrain our total export opportunity for the year.

正如我們在今年的指導表中指出的那樣，我們已經為我們的熱能部門鎖定了一個有吸引力的利潤率，並且隨著我們鎖定增量出口量的定價，預計該利潤率將進一步擴大。然而，重要的是要指出西部鐵路服務仍然是一個重要的問號，並且可能會限制我們今年的總出口機會。

Our existing guidance includes 750,000 tons of priced exports from West Elk. As we sit here today, we are reasonably confident that we will export an incremental 500,000 tons of West Elk coal that is not currently reflected in the guidance table and hope that there is meaningful upside to that number. Based on today's market prices, we would anticipate that those 500,000 tons alone would add another $1 per ton to the projected average margin for the segment as a whole. Of course, if the rails can facilitate additional export volumes beyond that level, the margin expansion for the segment would be greater still.

我們現有的指導包括 West Elk 的 750,000 噸定價出口。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們有理由相信我們將出口 500,000 噸目前未反映在指導表中的增量 West Elk 煤，並希望這個數字有有意義的上升空間。根據今天的市場價格，我們預計僅這 500,000 噸就會使整個部門的預計平均利潤每噸增加 1 美元。當然，如果鐵路能夠促進超過該水平的額外出口量，則該部門的利潤率擴張會更大。

In summary, while we are pleased with the success achieved over the course of 2022, we are squarely focused on the future and on the opportunity ahead. We fully intend to leverage our platform of low-cost operations and our portfolio of committed sales to again generate significant value and cash flow in 2023 and beyond.

總而言之，雖然我們對 2022 年取得的成功感到高興，但我們正專注於未來和未來的機遇。我們完全打算利用我們的低成本運營平台和我們承諾的銷售組合，在 2023 年及以後再次產生可觀的價值和現金流。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Matt for further discussion on our financial performance and results. Matt?

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給馬特，以進一步討論我們的財務業績和結果。馬特？

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。

I'll begin with a few comments on the fourth quarter financial results, which were a strong end to an outstanding year. EBITDA for the period totaled $256.5 million, an improvement of more than 15% from Q3 levels. Net income for the quarter was $470 million and included an income tax benefit of $253 million from the release of the valuation allowance on our federal net operating losses. As we discussed previously, the release of the valuation allowance is a noncash item and was due to the significant improvement in our income levels and expectations for fully utilizing the federal NOLs.

我將首先對第四季度的財務業績發表一些評論，這是對出色的一年的有力結束。該期間的 EBITDA 總計 2.565 億美元，比第三季度的水平提高了 15% 以上。本季度的淨收入為 4.7 億美元，其中包括 2.53 億美元的所得稅收益，這些收益來自對我們聯邦淨營業虧損的估值津貼的釋放。正如我們之前所討論的，估值津貼的發放是一項非現金項目，是由於我們的收入水平顯著提高以及對充分利用聯邦 NOL 的預期所致。

From a cash flow perspective, operating cash flows for the quarter totaled $194 million, which, despite the improvement in earnings, was our lowest quarterly total for the year. We had an increase in working capital during the quarter, a trend that we expected and discussed in detail on last quarter's call. Included in the operating cash flows is a nearly $6 million contribution to the thermal mine reclamation fund, including interest that was earned on the funds. We completed the planned accelerated funding earlier in the year and would now anticipate only modest contributions, inclusive of earned interest as we target keeping the fund in line with the Black Thunder ARO liability.

從現金流的角度來看，本季度的運營現金流總計 1.94 億美元，儘管收益有所改善，但這是我們全年最低的季度總額。本季度我們的營運資金有所增加，這是我們在上一季度的電話會議上預期並詳細討論的趨勢。運營現金流中包括對熱礦復墾基金的近 600 萬美元捐款，包括從基金中賺取的利息。我們在今年早些時候完成了計劃的加速融資，現在預計只有少量捐款，包括賺取的利息，因為我們的目標是使基金與 Black Thunder ARO 負債保持一致。

Capital spending for the quarter totaled $78 million. This was the highest quarterly total for the year and resulted from the delivery of several items that had been delayed by supply chain issues. As we move into 2023, we would expect the quarterly run rate to revert to a more ratable cadence.

本季度的資本支出總計 7800 萬美元。這是今年最高的季度總數，原因是一些物品的交付因供應鏈問題而延遲。隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們預計季度運行率將恢復到更穩定的節奏。

I'll discuss the capital return activities for the year in more detail shortly, but discretionary cash flow for the fourth quarter was $116 million. And consistent with the capital return formula, our Board has declared a dividend of 50% of that amount or $3.11 per share. The dividend will be paid on March 15 to stockholders of record on February 28.

我將在稍後更詳細地討論今年的資本回報活動，但第四季度的可自由支配現金流為 1.16 億美元。根據資本回報公式，我們的董事會已宣布派發該金額的 50% 或每股 3.11 美元的股息。股息將於 3 月 15 日支付給 2 月 28 日登記在冊的股東。

We ended the year with cash on hand of $273 million and total liquidity of $401 million, including availability under our credit facilities. Cash and liquidity at year end were essentially at target levels.

年底，我們手頭現金為 2.73 億美元，流動資金總額為 4.01 億美元，包括我們信貸額度下的可用資金。年底的現金和流動資金基本處於目標水平。

Turning now to the capital return program. As we previewed in October, we came into the fourth quarter with cash levels that were well above our targets and an expectation to use that excess cash to ramp up capital returns. As you can see, we clearly followed through on those expectations, deploying nearly $352 million during the quarter. That breaks down as follows: $192 million of dividends paid; $101 million to repurchase nearly 690,000 shares; and finally, $59 million to retire convertible bonds.

現在轉向資本回報計劃。正如我們在 10 月份預測的那樣，我們進入第四季度時的現金水平遠高於我們的目標，並期望使用多餘的現金來提高資本回報。如您所見，我們顯然實現了這些預期，在本季度部署了近 3.52 億美元。細分如下： 支付的股息為 1.92 億美元； 1.01億美元回購近69萬股；最後，5900 萬美元用於收回可轉換債券。

Paul has already mentioned the full year dividend, but I wanted to provide some additional detail on the second 50% of the program, including the reduction in the diluted share count that he mentioned. For the full year, we deployed approximately $367 million on stock and convertible bond repurchases with $208 million used to retire convertible bonds and the remainder for share buybacks. Prior to launching the capital return program, our fully diluted share count was approximately 21.6 million shares.

保羅已經提到了全年股息，但我想提供一些關於該計劃第二個 50% 的額外細節，包括他提到的減少稀釋後的股份數量。全年，我們部署了大約 3.67 億美元用於股票和可轉換債券回購，其中 2.08 億美元用於退回可轉換債券，其餘用於股票回購。在啟動資本回報計劃之前，我們的完全攤薄股份數量約為 2160 萬股。

Notably, had we not bought back shares or settled convertible bonds during the year, that number would actually have increased by 1.2 million shares to almost 22.8 million shares by year end. That's principally because absent the steps we took to settle the bonds, we would have incurred additional dilution stemming from the 2022 dividend payments because those payments result in an increase to the conversion rate for the convertible bondholders. That's why, in a nutshell, we prioritized the settlement of the convertible bonds rather than share buybacks at the launch of the return program. We knew that in doing so, we would not only reduce the diluted share count at the time of the bond repurchases, but that we would also avoid the additional dilution resulting from the dividend payments throughout the course of the year. And that's exactly what happened.

值得注意的是，如果我們在年內沒有回購股票或結算可轉換債券，到年底，這個數字實際上會增加 120 萬股，達到近 2280 萬股。這主要是因為如果我們不採取措施來結算債券，我們將因 2022 年的股息支付而招致額外的稀釋，因為這些支付會導致可轉換債券持有人的轉換率提高。這就是為什麼簡而言之，我們在啟動回報計劃時優先考慮可轉換債券的結算而不是股票回購。我們知道，這樣做不僅可以減少債券回購時的攤薄股份數量，還可以避免全年因股息支付而導致的額外攤薄。而這正是發生的事情。

In sum, the $367 million we used for stock and bond repurchases translated into a reduction in the year-end diluted share count of more than 2.9 million shares with a reduction of 1.1 million shares from buybacks -- share buybacks and the remainder attributable to the bond repurchases. On a per share basis, that is effectively an average price of $125 per share. In comparison, had we focused our efforts solely on share repurchases, that same amount of capital would have bought back less than 2.4 million shares at more than $154 per share. So while the amount of capital returned in 2022 is impressive on its own, the way in which the capital was deployed and the sequency of that deployment has also significantly benefited shareholders.

總而言之，我們用於股票和債券回購的 3.67 億美元轉化為年末攤薄後股票數量減少超過 290 萬股，回購減少了 110 萬股——股票回購，其餘歸因於債券回購。按每股計算，這實際上是每股 125 美元的平均價格。相比之下，如果我們僅將精力集中在股票回購上，那麼同樣數量的資本只能以每股 154 美元以上的價格回購不到 240 萬股。因此，儘管 2022 年返還的資本數量本身就令人印象深刻，但資本部署的方式和部署的順序也使股東受益匪淺。

Before moving on, I wanted to touch on 2 final points related to the convertible bonds. First, with the repurchases that we completed in the fourth quarter, we now have just $13 million of principal that remain outstanding. That represents just 8.5% of the original issuance. Second, the capped call that we purchased at the time the bonds were issued remains outstanding in full and has an intrinsic value of $62 million, representing approximately 425,000 shares at yesterday's closing stock price.

在繼續之前，我想談談與可轉換債券相關的最後兩點。首先，通過我們在第四季度完成的回購，我們現在只有 1300 萬美元的未償還本金。這僅佔原始發行量的 8.5%。其次，我們在發行債券時購買的上限認購期權仍全部未償付，內在價值為 6200 萬美元，按昨日收盤價計算約有 425,000 股。

Turning now to 2023 and starting with the first quarter, we are clearly encouraged by what we're seeing in the met markets so far this year, with higher index pricing quarter-to-date relative to Q4. While we expect to capture that benefit in our first quarter earnings, the cash flow timing is likely to be delayed. We expect a significant build in accounts receivable this quarter as many of our Asian shipments are initially billed at a provisional price from last quarter with the final true-up ultimately to be received in Q2. Additionally, aside from these pricing dynamics, we typically see an investment in working capital in the first quarter, and we expect that to be the case again this year.

現在轉向 2023 年，從第一季度開始，我們顯然對今年迄今為止在大都會市場上看到的情況感到鼓舞，與第四季度相比，本季度迄今的指數定價更高。雖然我們希望在第一季度收益中獲得這一收益，但現金流時間可能會延遲。我們預計本季度應收賬款將大量增加，因為我們的許多亞洲貨物最初都是按上一季度的臨時價格計費的，最終調整最終將在第二季度收到。此外，除了這些定價動態之外，我們通常會在第一季度看到對營運資金的投資，我們預計今年會再次出現這種情況。

Before turning the call over for questions, I wanted to provide some brief comments on a few of the financial guidance items in the release. First, our capital spending this year will be in the range of $150 million to $160 million and consists entirely of maintenance capital, with over 80% of that related to the core metallurgical segment. Despite the inflationary environment, we have maintained the capital guidance in line year-over-year. Second, you'll note that we expect net interest expense of less than $5 million, reflecting our tremendous progress in reducing indebtedness during 2022. Notably, interest income on our cash and short-term investments will largely offset the interest on our remaining debt.

在轉交問題電話之前，我想就新聞稿中的一些財務指導項目提供一些簡短的評論。首先，我們今年的資本支出將在 1.5 億至 1.6 億美元之間，並且完全由維護資本組成，其中 80% 以上與核心冶金板塊相關。儘管存在通貨膨脹環境，我們仍保持資本指導與去年同期一致。其次，您會注意到我們預計淨利息支出將低於 500 萬美元，這反映了我們在 2022 年減少債務方面取得的巨大進展。值得注意的是，我們現金和短期投資的利息收入將在很大程度上抵消我們剩餘債務的利息。

Finally, with respect to income taxes, now that we have released the valuation allowance, we expect to have a more normal tax provision on the income statement with a range of 10% to 15% of pretax income. For 2023, we expect that cash tax payments will be less than 5% of pretax income as we continue to benefit from net operating loss carryforwards. As you model years beyond 2023, we would expect the tax provision and tax payments to be more closely aligned in that 10% to 15% range as we will have utilized most of the NOLs.

最後，關於所得稅，既然我們已經釋放了估值津貼，我們預計損益表上會有一個更正常的稅收撥備，範圍為稅前收入的 10% 至 15%。到 2023 年，我們預計現金稅款將低於稅前收入的 5%，因為我們將繼續受益於淨經營虧損結轉。當您為 2023 年以後的年份建模時，我們預計稅收撥備和納稅將在 10% 至 15% 的範圍內更加緊密地保持一致，因為我們將利用大部分 NOL。

With that, we are ready to take questions. Operator, I will turn the call back over to you.

有了這個，我們準備好接受提問了。接線員，我會把電話轉給你。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。

I want to add good job on the progress at Leer and Leer South on the cost side, that's really impressive. I want to spend my first question here on the met side and just get a little bit more sense for the cadence of shipments throughout the year. Is it pretty ratable? Do we expect maybe a little bit more here in the beginning? Or is it back-end weighted? If you could provide some color on that, I would appreciate it.

我想在成本方面為 Leer 和 Leer South 的進展添加良好的工作，這真的令人印象深刻。我想在這裡提出我的第一個問題，只是對全年的出貨節奏有更多的了解。它很受歡迎嗎？一開始我們是否期望在這裡多一點？還是後端加權？如果你能提供一些顏色，我將不勝感激。

Lucas, John Drexler. As far as the cadence on the volumes, as we indicated in the release, as we sit here today, we're looking like we're going to be flat from Q4 to Q1. And then if you take the midpoint of the guidance and kind of distribute that with the difference of what we ship in the first quarter, right now, the expected cadence would be kind of ratable for the back 3 quarters of the year. So we're happy with the progress that we've been able to make at Leer and Leer South and thrilled with the increase in the volumes that we expect to achieve over the course of '23. So that's kind of our view on the cadence right now.

盧卡斯，約翰德雷克斯勒。至於交易量的節奏，正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，就像我們今天坐在這裡一樣，我們看起來從第四季度到第一季度持平。然後，如果你採用指導的中點，並將其與我們在第一季度出貨量的差異進行分配，那麼現在，今年後三個季度的預期節奏將是相當的。因此，我們對我們在 Leer 和 Leer South 取得的進展感到高興，並對我們預計在 23 年期間實現的銷量增長感到興奮。這就是我們現在對節奏的看法。

That's helpful. And then switching to the thermal side. John, you made some comments in the prepared remarks. I think it was 500,000 tons could move the total margin in the thermal business by $1. If you could just remind us what the dynamics are there. And then the sales guidance for the year, I think from the low end to the high end, about 8 million tons. What are the key drivers there? I would appreciate that color. And then as you look out to 2024, how is the thermal sales book positioned today? And what's your outlook in light of the weaker gas price environment?

這很有幫助。然後切換到熱側。約翰，你在準備好的發言稿中發表了一些評論。我認為 500,000 噸可以使熱力業務的總利潤增加 1 美元。如果你能提醒我們那裡的動態是什麼。然後是今年的銷售指導，我認為從低端到高端，大約 800 萬噸。那裡的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？我會很欣賞那種顏色。然後，當您展望 2024 年時，今天的熱銷書定位如何？鑑於天然氣價格環境疲軟，您的前景如何？

Yes. Thanks, Lucas. As we sit here today -- and we talked about it throughout the course of the prepared remarks, the challenges that we've had really have been rail over the course of 2022. It significantly limited our opportunity to liberate coal into the export market. As we sit here today, that coal going into the export market, even with some of the pressure that we've seen on some of those international pricing still nets back to a very healthy margin for us. And so those 500,000 tons that we're looking at right now, we're fairly confident we're going to be able to get those exported. They're not priced right now. Clearly, though, at today's market price, those will be leveraging and would add $1 per ton to the margin. More importantly, though, we think there's a larger upside on the exports as well. If the rails perform, we could continue to enhance that thermal margin significantly if we have the opportunity to get more coal off the coast.

是的。謝謝，盧卡斯。當我們今天坐在這裡時——我們在準備好的發言過程中一直在討論這個問題，我們在 2022 年期間真正遇到的挑戰已經過去了。這極大地限制了我們將煤炭釋放到出口市場的機會。正如我們今天坐在這裡，進入出口市場的煤炭，即使我們在一些國際定價上看到了一些壓力，仍然為我們帶來了非常健康的利潤率。因此，我們現在正在研究的那 500,000 噸，我們相當有信心能夠出口。他們現在沒有定價。但很明顯，按照今天的市場價格，這些將發揮槓桿作用，每噸利潤將增加 1 美元。不過，更重要的是，我們認為出口也有更大的上漲空間。如果鐵路運行良好，如果我們有機會從沿海獲得更多煤炭，我們可以繼續顯著提高熱利潤率。

Lucas, those volumes at stack, those volumes are principally off the West Coast, and so you're looking at a Newcastle price of $220 if you look at the spot. And so at those prices, that's what that would translate into given our expected costs at West Elk. So you can see that 500,000 tons is still quite leveraging. It's less than we'd like to ship. It's less than we hoped to ship, but it's the amount we feel confident about at this point. And still, it's a significant uplift in the average realization and then the average contribution and the total contribution for the thermal segment.

盧卡斯，那些堆積如山的捲，這些卷主要是在西海岸以外的地方，所以如果你看一下現貨，你會看到紐卡斯爾的價格是 220 美元。因此，按照這些價格，考慮到我們在 West Elk 的預期成本，這就是我們的預期成本。所以你看50萬噸還是挺槓桿的。它比我們想要運送的要少。這比我們希望的出貨量要少，但這是我們目前有信心的數量。而且，這仍然是平均實現的顯著提升，然後是熱部分的平均貢獻和總貢獻。

From a thermal perspective, at least as the wide range in the guidance that we provided, the 8 million tons, so much of that is driven by where the rails are going to perform. We are sold out essentially at the midpoint of the guidance. I want to go all the way back to the beginning of '22. But if you remember, as we work through the course of '22 because of the significant rail challenges we had, we ended up shipping less coal than we had committed over the course of the year. Right now, our guidance kind of aligns with what we were able to ship in '22. We're hopeful that the rails continue to improve, which would give us some additional opportunity, especially with the leveraging export tons that we just discussed.

從熱力的角度來看，至少在我們提供的指導範圍內，800 萬噸，其中很大一部分是由鐵軌的運行位置驅動的。我們基本上在指導的中點賣光了。我想一路回到 22 年初。但是，如果您還記得，由於我們遇到了重大的鐵路挑戰，我們在 22 年的整個過程中努力工作，最終我們運輸的煤炭比我們在這一年中承諾的要少。現在，我們的指導與我們在 22 年能夠發布的內容有點一致。我們希望鐵路繼續改善，這會給我們一些額外的機會，特別是我們剛剛討論過的槓桿出口噸數。

And look, it's again, Deck, it's -- for 2024, we're probably not ready to go there yet. It's premature for us to talk about the sales book and quantify that in a significant way. But we do have a very solid foundation we have built. We feel really good about where we are and the pricing we've achieved. So we would expect the strong pricing you've seen here or you expect to see in 2023 to roll into 2024 as well. But we're not ready to give precise volumes as yet. I would only say, again, it's a really quite solid foundation. We feel quite good about our position for '24 as well.

看，Deck，它又是——到 2024 年，我們可能還沒有準備好去那裡。我們現在談論銷售書並以重要的方式對其進行量化還為時過早。但我們確實擁有非常堅實的基礎。我們對我們所處的位置和我們實現的定價感到非常滿意。因此，我們預計您在這裡看到的強勁定價，或者您希望在 2023 年看到的強勁定價也將延續到 2024 年。但我們還沒有準備好提供精確的數量。我只想說，再一次，這是一個非常堅實的基礎。我們對我們在 24 年的位置也感覺很好。

The next question comes from David Gagliano with BMO.

下一個問題來自 BMO 的 David Gagliano。

I just have a couple of quick ones, I think. You kind of talked about it a little bit, but I was wondering if I could just ask directly. What's the split in the guide, the average price of $17.50 a ton for overall U.S. thermal? What's the split between PRB and West Elk embedded in that?

我想我只有幾個快速的。你稍微談了一下，但我想知道我是否可以直接問。指南中的分裂是什麼，美國整體熱能的平均價格為每噸 17.50 美元？嵌入其中的 PRB 和 West Elk 之間的分歧是什麼？

So Dave, it's about, call it, $15.25 or so as kind of the PRB price on the 65 million tons or so that John referenced. And then West Elk, obviously, provides the uplift from that level for the average committed pricing on, quite frankly, again, fairly modest export tons.

所以戴夫，大約是 15.25 美元左右，就像約翰提到的 6500 萬噸左右的 PRB 價格。很明顯，West Elk 為平均承諾定價提供了相對於該水平的提升，坦率地說，出口噸數相當適中。

And the volume split is about $65.5.

成交量拆分約為 65.5 美元。

Correct. Absolutely.

正確的。絕對地。

Okay. All right, helpful. And then just on -- there was a comment earlier about potential working capital build in the first quarter. I just wanted to ask if that could be quantified, obviously, just to help with the calibration of the estimate of the variable dividend.

好的。不錯，有幫助然後就在 - 早些時候有關於第一季度潛在營運資本建設的評論。我只是想問一下，這是否可以量化，顯然，只是為了幫助校準可變紅利的估計。

Yes, Dave, this is Matt. One of the things John highlighted in his discussion was the success we've had on the Asian customers. The good of that is that those are some great customers that hopefully will be long-term folks that we'll sell to and be in their book for a long time. The downside, if you want to look at it is in a rising price environment, we will hang up more of those receivables on the balance sheet. And so that's what we're expecting this quarter. As you see, the PLB price rise throughout the quarter, the way some of the pricing works there is a provisional price that we'll bill at and collect in the quarter, but that true-up to the higher pricing will come next quarter.

是的，戴夫，這是馬特。約翰在他的討論中強調的一件事是我們在亞洲客戶方面取得的成功。這樣做的好處是，那些是一些偉大的客戶，希望成為我們將長期銷售給他們的長期客戶，並長期留在他們的書中。不利的一面是，如果你想看它處於價格上漲的環境中，我們將在資產負債表上掛起更多的應收賬款。這就是我們對本季度的預期。如您所見，整個季度的 PLB 價格都在上漲，一些定價的運作方式是我們將在本季度開具賬單並收取的臨時價格，但下個季度將實現更高的定價。

So when you look at the receivables, I think we'll see a fairly significant build in receivables much more so than what we saw in Q4. And then there are some typical seasonal working capital items that we faced in Q1. Inventory build related to the Lake season business, typically, some of the payables will decline from year-end levels to the end of first quarter. As I look at it, I think we could see a working capital build this quarter of at least $100 million. And obviously, most of that will get back later in the year and a lot of it in Q2. But here in Q1, expect to see a pretty significant headwind.

因此，當您查看應收賬款時，我認為我們將看到比我們在第四季度看到的更多的應收賬款。然後是我們在第一季度面臨的一些典型的季節性營運資金項目。與湖季業務相關的庫存建設，通常，一些應付款將從年末水平下降到第一季度末。在我看來，我認為本季度我們可以看到至少 1 億美元的營運資金。顯然，其中大部分將在今年晚些時候恢復，其中大部分將在第二季度恢復。但在第一季度，預計會出現相當大的逆風。

David, this is Paul. I think I said last quarter, I think the biggest surprise of any of us is how lumpy the working capital can be. And my guess is we're going to see a corresponding impact on dividends in 2023, where they're just not going to be ratable. They're going to be up and down. But obviously, over the course of the year, it's going to even out, it'll all work out.

大衛，這是保羅。我想我上個季度說過，我認為我們任何人最大的驚喜是營運資金的波動性。我的猜測是，我們將在 2023 年看到對股息的相應影響，屆時它們將不會被評級。他們會起起落落。但很明顯，在這一年中，它會趨於平衡，一切都會好起來的。

Yes. Great. That's very helpful. And then sticking with the capital allocation, just on the buybacks, obviously, a nice number this quarter. And after adjusting for working capital, any reason to expect on a quarterly basis the sort of the 50-50 split to move that much in one direction or the other between specials and buybacks?

是的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後堅持資本配置，就回購而言，顯然，本季度是一個不錯的數字。在調整營運資金後，有什麼理由期望每季度 50-50 的比例在特價和回購之間朝一個方向或另一個方向移動那麼多？

I mean, right now, David, I think the way the program is set up in the allocation model, we're going to stick with it. The 50% of the discretionary cash flow to dividends, it's very simple. People understand it. Absent working capital changes, it's very simple. What's a little more lumpy is going to be the repurchases and what we do with the other 50%. But David, I think we believe the program is working well. It's been well received by our shareholders. And our plan right now is to stick with things.

我的意思是，現在，大衛，我認為程序在分配模型中的設置方式，我們將堅持下去。 50%的可支配現金流去分紅，很簡單。人們理解它。沒有營運資金的變化，這很簡單。更棘手的是回購以及我們對其他 50% 的處理。但是大衛，我認為我們相信該計劃運作良好。它受到了我們股東的好評。我們現在的計劃是堅持下去。

David, it's a fairly simple formula. But as Paul said, we're going to -- because we pay the dividend in arrears and the way we pay it, it's going to be lumpy, but our general view is 10 quarters from now, when you look back over what's been paid out for the first 50% the second 50%, they're going to be relatively equal because, again, it's just math. Having said that, we are going to see lumpiness quarter-to-quarter. So we try to provide guidance around that, not always possible to provide precision. But again, the 50-50 will hold, it just may not hold in any given quarter.

大衛，這是一個相當簡單的公式。但正如保羅所說，我們將——因為我們支付拖欠的股息和我們支付的方式，這將是不穩定的，但我們的總體看法是從現在開始的 10 個季度，當你回顧已支付的內容時對於前 50% 和第二個 50%，它們將相對相等，因為這又是數學問題。話雖如此，我們將看到每個季度的波動。因此，我們嘗試圍繞這一點提供指導，但並不總是能夠提供精確度。但同樣，50-50 將保持不變，只是可能不會在任何特定季度保持不變。

Perfect. It's very helpful. Last question, I know, I'm going to be quick, but not that quick. Really quickly now, last question. Can you talk a little bit about the customers on the U.S. thermal side? I know it's early days. The numbers haven't been good on the demand side. Can you just speak through potential as we get into the year for maybe deferrals? And how much is kind of open for reopenings and stuff like that, plus or minus, how much in the committed volumes for 2023?

完美的。這非常有幫助。最後一個問題，我知道，我會很快，但不會那麼快。現在真的很快，最後一個問題。您能談談美國熱力方面的客戶嗎？我知道現在還早。需求方面的數字並不理想。當我們進入可能延期的一年時，你能談談潛力嗎？重新開放和類似的事情有多少是開放的，加上或減去，2023 年的承諾數量是多少？

Yes. Good question, David. As we sit here today and we look at the book for '23, right, there are some headwinds. We referenced those. But at the same time, as we're talking and looking at customers and the inventories that they have, we continue to see that there's demand for rebuild that needs to occur from an inventory level that we believe will continue to play itself through over the course of the year. We'll continue to evaluate things as we move forward. But we have good confidence that for what our committed levels are that we expect to ship those over the course of the year.

是的。問得好，大衛。當我們今天坐在這裡看 23 年的書時，是的，有一些不利因素。我們參考了那些。但與此同時，在我們討論和查看客戶及其擁有的庫存時，我們繼續看到需要從庫存水平進行重建的需求，我們認為庫存水平將在未來繼續發揮作用年的課程。隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續評估事情。但我們很有信心，我們承諾的水平是我們希望在一年中交付的水平。

And Dave, I mean, if you recall, last year in 2022, there was an awful lot of coal conservation going on because of poor rail performance. And so generators would have been burning more coal. They just didn't have the inventory, they couldn't get the volumes. And so as a result, they are focused on rebuilding those inventories now. Now clearly, it's been a slow start to the winter in terms of weather and demand has been down, natural gas price is very low. So that will have an effect on burn. But so far, we're not hearing from any of our customers that they don't want to continue to receive the full amount, their full allocation. And quite frankly, they're still struggling to get kind of rail service that they expect. So if it's a mild summer as well, perhaps we'd start to see that pushback. But right now, we don't expect to see that. We think this is going to be a year of sort of rebuilding of these inventories and more to more normal levels.

戴夫，我的意思是，如果你還記得，去年 2022 年，由於鐵路表現不佳，正在進行大量的煤炭節約。所以發電機會燃燒更多的煤。他們只是沒有庫存，他們無法獲得數量。因此，他們現在專注於重建這些庫存。現在很明顯，就天氣和需求而言，冬季開始緩慢，天然氣價格非常低。所以這會對燃燒產生影響。但到目前為止，我們還沒有收到任何客戶的來信，他們不想繼續收到全部金額，他們的全部分配。坦率地說，他們仍在努力獲得他們期望的某種鐵路服務。因此，如果這也是一個溫和的夏天，也許我們會開始看到這種阻力。但現在，我們不希望看到這一點。我們認為今年將是這些庫存重建的一年，而且會更多地恢復到更正常的水平。

David, I think Deck touched on the frustration of some of our customers on rail service. And I think you stand back and look, the Eastern rails had the same issue that we hear about in the West. But Eastern rail services basically settled their problems in about 4 or 5 months. Frankly, the Western rail service has gotten worse in the fourth quarter. I mean it's extraordinarily disappointing what they're doing and their ability to bounce back. And that frustration has come through from our customers. And I think if they can get the rail service, I feel a little more optimistic this year about them taking what they contracted.

戴維，我認為戴克觸及了我們的一些客戶對鐵路服務的失望。而且我認為您退後一步看，東部鐵路遇到的問題與我們在西部聽到的問題相同。但東鐵服務基本上在四五個月內解決了他們的問題。坦率地說，西部鐵路服務在第四季度變得更糟。我的意思是他們正在做的事情和他們反彈的能力非常令人失望。這種挫敗感來自我們的客戶。而且我認為，如果他們能夠獲得鐵路服務，我今年對他們接受合同中的內容感到更加樂觀。

The next question comes from Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company.

下一個問題來自 The Benchmark Company 的 Nathan Martin。

I think most of them have been addressed at this point. But maybe just drilling down a little bit more on expected shipment cadence. I know John had some good comments there. But maybe on the met side, any planned longwall moves to be mindful of? Paul, you just said it sounds like Eastern rail service is moving along fairly well. But is Curtis Bay back up to running at 100% again? And then on the thermal side, again, rail service continues to be poor. It sounds like how do you expect that maybe to affect the cadence or timing of shipments on the thermal business?

我認為大多數問題此時已得到解決。但也許只是進一步深入了解預期的發貨節奏。我知道約翰在那裡有一些很好的評論。但也許在會面方面，任何計劃的長壁移動需要注意？保羅，你剛才說聽起來東部鐵路服務進展順利。但是 Curtis Bay 會再次恢復到 100% 的運行嗎？然後在熱方面，鐵路服務仍然很差。聽起來您如何期望這可能會影響熱業務的出貨節奏或時間？

So Nate, from a longwall move perspective, our operations have gotten exceptionally good and efficient at moving the walls from panel to panel. Leer South, just right at the beginning of January of this year, had a very successful move from Panel 2 to Panel 3. We've got several moves scheduled over the course of the year, depending on advance rates, something might get pulled into '23 or push out to '24. But all of that is incorporated into the guidance and our teams have high confidence on the ability to execute on the plan that's out there and don't see any significant impacts or variability to kind of the cadence of our production over the course of the year.

所以內特，從長壁移動的角度來看，我們的操作在將牆壁從一個面板移動到另一個面板方面變得非常好和高效。 Leer South 就在今年 1 月初，非常成功地從 Panel 2 轉移到 Panel 3。我們在這一年中安排了幾次搬遷，具體取決於預付款，可能會被拉入'23 或推到 '24。但所有這些都已納入指南中，我們的團隊對執行現有計劃的能力充滿信心，並且看不到一年中我們生產節奏的任何重大影響或變化.

Look -- sorry, Nate, it's been a slow start, obviously, on the rail side. I mean you do have typical seasonality. Q2 tends to be a lesser period because of weather in the PRB on the thermal side. Q3 tends to be a strong shipping quarter, so there certainly could be some level of lumpiness. But again, we started out Q1 at a fairly slow pace. So stay tuned.

看——抱歉，內特，顯然，在鐵路方面，這是一個緩慢的開始。我的意思是你確實有典型的季節性。由於 PRB 在熱方面的天氣，第二季度往往是一個較短的時期。第三季度往往是一個強勁的出貨季度，因此肯定會有一定程度的波動。但同樣，我們以相當緩慢的速度開始了第一季度。敬請期待。

I think if you look at the cadence, if you were just to make it ratable over the course of the year to that midpoint of 70 million tons, it'd be 17.5 million tons a quarter, as Deck indicated, there's typically some seasonality in a traditional year, but then when you've got the rail impacts and challenges, we do expect improvement from Q4, but probably not on a true ratable basis in Q1 for the full year at the 70 million ton midpoint of the guidance for the year, if that helps.

我認為如果你看一下節奏，如果你只是讓它在一年中達到 7000 萬噸的中點，那麼每季度將達到 1750 萬噸，正如 Deck 指出的那樣，通常會有一些季節性傳統的一年，但當你遇到鐵路影響和挑戰時，我們確實預計第四季度會有所改善，但可能不會在全年指導的 7000 萬噸中點的全年第一季度的真正評級基礎上，如果有幫助的話。

Yes. No, that's very helpful, guys. And just real quick, Curtis Bay, is that kind of back up to running normally at this point?

是的。不，這很有幫助，伙計們。很快，Curtis Bay，此時是否可以恢復正常運行？

Yes, Nate. We -- over the course of the year, things -- they address the issue that started in January of '22 and work to kind of repair the facility. The logistics team here did an outstanding job of managing that issue over the course of the year as Curtis Bay continued to make repairs, our opportunity to participate, continue to increase there at Curtis Bay. And as we rolled into the end of the year, we're not seeing any issues with Curtis Bay as we go forward.

是的，內特。我們——在這一年中，事情——他們解決了 22 年 1 月開始的問題，並努力修復設施。由於柯蒂斯灣繼續進行維修，我們參與的機會在柯蒂斯灣繼續增加，因此這裡的後勤團隊在這一年中出色地解決了這個問題。隨著我們進入年底，我們在前進的過程中沒有看到柯蒂斯灣有任何問題。

Okay. I'll just say, Nate, that CSX effectively did what they said. They delivered on the operating side. They got Curtis Bay back up and running. No complaints on the East.

好的。我只想說，內特，CSX 有效地做到了他們所說的。他們在運營方面交付。他們讓 Curtis Bay 重新啟動並運行。對東方無怨無悔。

Great to hear, guys. And then maybe as it relates to full year '23 net segment cost per ton guidance, what met price are you kind of embedding in your $79 to $89 ton range there?

很高興聽到，伙計們。然後也許因為它與全年每噸指導的 23 年淨分段成本有關，你在 79 美元到 89 美元的噸範圍內嵌入了什麼滿足價格？

So Nate, as part of the reason for that wide range is a lot of those different variables that are out there, including sales price. Remind everyone that given the ownership structure of the reserves that we have out in the East where we own the majority of those reserves, our sales-sensitive costs in relative terms are fairly modest kind of we guide to about a 7% range type sales-sensitive cost numbers. So we're not going to provide specific guidance on what the market range was. But once again, it's all incorporated into the guidance that we have out there.

所以 Nate，作為範圍廣泛的部分原因是存在很多不同的變量，包括銷售價格。提醒大家，考慮到我們在東部擁有大部分儲量的儲量的所有權結構，相對而言，我們對銷售敏感的成本相當適中，我們指導大約 7% 的範圍型銷售-敏感的成本數字。因此，我們不會就市場範圍提供具體指導。但再一次，這一切都融入了我們現有的指南中。

And Nate, just a reminder, that 7% -- 5% of that is severance tax we pay the state of West Virginia, which I think underscores further the strength of our position and the fact that we own the vast majority of our reserves and fees. So we really are in a quite a good position and feel very comfortable that while sure higher prices will have some effect on our cost, it's fairly modest and so not that difficult for us to encompass those sorts of increased prices within the range we provide.

Nate，提醒一下，其中 7% - 5% 是我們向西弗吉尼亞州支付的遣散稅，我認為這進一步強調了我們的地位以及我們擁有絕大部分儲備和費用。因此，我們確實處於一個非常有利的位置並且感到非常自在，雖然肯定更高的價格會對我們的成本產生一些影響，但它相當適度，因此我們並不難將這些價格上漲包含在我們提供的範圍內。

Got it. Appreciate that. And then maybe just finally, a bigger picture question. I guess timely the report is out this morning, Teck might be looking to announce the spinoff of its met coal business as early as next week according to Bloomberg. I know you guys obviously can't comment specifically on deals, but how would you maybe characterize the current coal M&A landscape? Would you have any interest in adding some high-quality met coal assets?

知道了。感謝。然後也許只是最後一個更大的問題。據彭博社報導，我猜今天早上報告發布的時間很及時，泰克資源可能會在下周宣布分拆其冶煉煤業務。我知道你們顯然不能具體評論交易，但您如何描述當前的煤炭併購格局？您是否有興趣增加一些優質的冶金煤資產？

Nate, as we've said in the past, we'll look at everything and consider about it anything. But it's a very difficult environment to do a deal. And you talk about what is the environment, well, it's effectively frozen. There's lots of reasons for that. And I think anybody or everybody should agree that if there is a deal out there that lowers costs and in our case, does not hurt us on a quality basis, we'd probably take a lot of interest in it. But absent that, it's hard to put a deal together right now. And we'll keep looking, we'll keep considering. But frankly, we're in a good position. We're on the low end of the cost curve. Frankly, we're well below the average cost curve over the rest of the U.S. And if our downside case is simply harvesting cash and turn it back to shareholders, that's fine.

內特，正如我們過去所說，我們會審視一切並考慮任何事情。但這是一個非常困難的環境來達成協議。你談論什麼是環境，好吧，它實際上被凍結了。這有很多原因。而且我認為任何人或每個人都應該同意，如果有一項可以降低成本的交易，並且在我們的情況下，不會在質量基礎上損害我們，我們可能會對它產生很大的興趣。但如果不這樣做，現在就很難達成協議。我們會繼續尋找，我們會繼續考慮。但坦率地說，我們處於有利地位。我們處於成本曲線的低端。坦率地說，我們遠低於美國其他地區的平均成本曲線。如果我們的不利情況只是收穫現金並將其返還給股東，那很好。

The next question comes from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Michael Dudas。

So adding those 7 Asian customers, you can put that in context relative to your comments in your prepared remarks of utilization starting to improve some hot metal coming back. Is that helping your product kind of get noticed in the marketplace? And with regard to looking at the best netback value for Arch long term, how important you think Asia will be going forward? Is that going to be a significant marketing of the tons that you have in the market for export customers? It sounds that's like what you'd like to do if the economics make sense.

因此，添加這 7 個亞洲客戶，您可以將其與您準備好的利用率評論中的評論相關聯，以開始改善一些鐵水回流。這是否有助於您的產品在市場上受到關注？關於從長遠來看 Arch 的最佳淨回值，您認為亞洲未來的發展有多重要？這將是您在市場上為出口客戶提供的噸數的重要營銷嗎？如果經濟學說得通，這聽起來就像您想做的那樣。

Yes, Mike, I'll start off broadly and see if Deck or John want to add in. Clearly, our thinking has been the last couple of years is to expand our customer base in Asia. And the logic is fairly simple. Both the U.S. and European blast furnaces are slowing down for a variety of reasons, starting to move away. And the real growth on the raw steel or the hot-rolled steel is in Asia. So we have purposely done this jump to the Asian markets and spend a lot of time and effort in there.

是的，邁克，我將從廣泛開始，看看戴克或約翰是否想加入。顯然，我們過去幾年的想法是擴大我們在亞洲的客戶群。而且邏輯相當簡單。由於各種原因，美國和歐洲的高爐都在放緩，開始搬離。而粗鋼或熱軋鋼的真正增長在亞洲。所以我們特意跳到了亞洲市場，並在那里花費了大量的時間和精力。

So Mike, I'd say, look, we've now crossed over 40% of our volumes moving into Asia. We think that's really important and strategic. That is where the growth is going to be. As Paul said, the Europeans are looking at some migration away from integrated steel production towards more EAF and maybe DRI with EAF. The Asian market is not. The Asian market is full speed ahead on new integrated steel capacity being added. And post-COVID, the projects that were put on pause have now started back and are moving forward with great momentum. As we look out between now and 2030, we could see 70 million tons of additional hot metal production manifest itself in Southeast Asia, including India. And that's a huge market opportunity for us. The vast majority of that will be served via the seaborne market. And so we absolutely believe it's strategic.

所以邁克，我想說，看，我們現在已經超過 40% 的銷量進入亞洲。我們認為這非常重要且具有戰略意義。這就是增長的方向。正如 Paul 所說，歐洲人正在考慮從綜合鋼鐵生產轉向更多的 EAF，也許還有 DRI 和 EAF。亞洲市場不是。亞洲市場正全速推進新的綜合鋼鐵產能的增加。而在 COVID 之後，暫停的項目現在又重新開始，並以強勁的勢頭向前發展。從現在到 2030 年，我們可能會看到東南亞（包括印度）的鐵水產量增加 7000 萬噸。這對我們來說是一個巨大的市場機會。其中絕大部分將通過海運市場提供服務。所以我們絕對相信這是戰略性的。

I would also add that, look, we think we've got the ideal product for that marketplace because we've got -- with our Leer and Leer South product, we've got the high CSR that Australia provides, the 70 CSR kind of product, along with the plastics properties that make it great for blending. And you're looking at steelmakers that are weighing their options and trying to find blends of multiple products while adding our High-Vol A product really makes those blends so much more effective because of those plastics properties, the temperature range, the fluidity. So we are -- we do believe we're getting traction there and a better understanding of the value of the product. And these 7 customers are indicative of that. But certainly, as we look forward, we expect Asia to represent an increasing percentage of our mix.

我還要補充一點，看，我們認為我們已經為該市場提供了理想的產品，因為我們已經 - 通過我們的 Leer 和 Leer South 產品，我們擁有澳大利亞提供的高 CSR，即 70 CSR 類型產品，以及使其非常適合混合的塑料特性。你看到的鋼鐵製造商正在權衡他們的選擇並試圖找到多種產品的混合物，同時添加我們的 High-Vol A 產品確實使這些混合物變得更加有效，因為這些塑料特性、溫度範圍和流動性。所以我們 - 我們確實相信我們在那裡獲得牽引力並且更好地了解產品的價值。這 7 位客戶就說明了這一點。但可以肯定的是，在我們展望未來時，我們預計亞洲在我們的產品組合中所佔的比例會越來越大。

And Michael, I'll add just to recognize the marketing team and the tremendous work that they've done to go out and to secure additional business in these Asian markets. We've talked about it for some time that Deck just alluded to, the qualities of the product that we're producing and wanting to get it introduced into a growing area like that. The marketing team has done an outstanding job of getting those relationships, getting opportunities to have the product tested and then executing on the ability to enter into contracts. So it's been a big win all around. And just to kind of wrap up that discussion, in addition to the growing demand there, and we've hinted on this a couple of different times. There's just a complete lack of investment globally in new production. And so we see a tremendous opportunity here as we move forward and think we're positioned very well.

邁克爾，我要補充一下，以表彰營銷團隊以及他們為走出去並在這些亞洲市場獲得更多業務所做的巨大工作。我們已經討論了一段時間，Deck 剛剛提到了我們正在生產的產品的質量，並希望將其引入這樣一個不斷增長的領域。營銷團隊在建立這些關係、獲得測試產品的機會以及執行簽訂合同的能力方面做得非常出色。所以這是一場巨大的勝利。只是為了結束討論，除了那裡不斷增長的需求之外，我們已經在不同的時間暗示過這一點。全球完全缺乏對新生產的投資。因此，我們在前進的過程中看到了巨大的機會，並認為我們的定位非常好。

No, that's very well said, gentlemen. And just a follow-up maybe on your last comment there, John. Do you think U.S. can contribute -- what do you think the U.S. can contribute to export met in 2023? And even in the next '24 and '25, is there the ability to kind of maintain those numbers or I would assume there's still going to be these struggles?

不，說得很好，先生們。約翰，也許只是對你最後一條評論的跟進。您認為美國可以做出什麼貢獻——您認為美國可以為 2023 年的出口做出什麼貢獻？甚至在接下來的 24 年和 25 年，是否有能力保持這些數字，或者我認為這些鬥爭仍然存在？

Yes, Mike, it's Deck. And look, we are comfortable with the fact that demand could slacken if the macro environment continues to slow and weaken, we're in a great position to sort of ride out any kind of trough. So I want to say that first. So we're not making this projection for the market for great market strength, unbroken in the end of the business cycle. We will say this. Right now, you're right, you've got steel production and hot metal production now starting to show signs of kicking back up after declining by nearly 9% last year in the world, excluding China. And yet, the supply side continues to be under a lot of pressure.

是的，邁克，是戴克。看，如果宏觀環境繼續放緩和疲軟，需求可能會放緩，我們對此感到滿意，我們處於一個很好的位置，可以渡過任何低谷。所以我想先說。因此，我們並沒有為市場做出這樣的預測，以期在商業周期結束時保持強大的市場實力。我們會這樣說。現在，你是對的，你的鋼鐵產量和鐵水產量在去年全球（不包括中國）下降近 9% 後開始出現回升跡象。然而，供應方繼續承受著很大的壓力。

So Australia was down nearly 9 million tons in terms of production in 2022, coking coal exports in 2022. They are the big horse in the seaborne market, as you know, but they are now down 30 million tons from the peak year of 2016. They ended the year at about 158 million tons versus the peak year of 188 million tons in 2016. So you continue to see that the underinvestment that John mentioned manifests itself in a very significant way.

因此，澳大利亞在 2022 年的產量和 2022 年的煉焦煤出口方面下降了近 900 萬噸。如您所知，它們是海運市場的一匹大馬，但現在比 2016 年的峰值下降了 3000 萬噸。他們今年年底的產量約為 1.58 億噸，而 2016 年的峰值年份為 1.88 億噸。因此，您繼續看到約翰提到的投資不足以非常重要的方式表現出來。

The U.S. is really the same story. You've got degradation and depletion of the reserve base. You've got relatively limited investment. And so despite the fact that last year, in 2022, average High-Vol A price was $350, U.S. exports increased by 1 million tons. Canadian exports increased by 2 million tons last year. And those are the 3 biggest suppliers in terms of high-quality coking coal. So we continue to see pressure on supply and believe that is going to continue in 2023, which suggests that the market could retain this strength for some period of time. Again, we don't need it to. We can do well in a market that is less robust than the one that persists right now, but the fundamentals do continue to look strong.

美國也是同樣的故事。儲備基地已經退化和枯竭。你的投資相對有限。因此，儘管去年，即 2022 年，High-Vol A 的平均價格為 350 美元，但美國的出口量增加了 100 萬噸。去年加拿大的出口量增加了 200 萬噸。這些是優質焦煤的三大供應商。因此，我們繼續看到供應壓力，並相信這種情況將在 2023 年繼續，這表明市場可能會在一段時間內保持這種勢頭。同樣，我們不需要它。我們可以在一個不如目前持續強勁的市場中做得很好，但基本面看起來仍然強勁。

Michael, the other thing related to this, we used to always talk about what we need is an average of about $150 East Coast price for the world to work. You think about that now and the guidance so that you're hearing from a lot of the U.S. producers, $150 is breakeven. That number has moved up dramatically. And as Deck said, look, we don't need it to be $200 or $300 to do well, but it is interesting where it's settling in at. Look, I don't think the $150 as a normal going forward price structure, our cost -- our price structure is going to be the norm going forward.

邁克爾，與此相關的另一件事，我們過去總是談論我們需要的東西是世界平均約 150 美元的東海岸價格。你現在想想這個和指導，所以你從很多美國生產商那裡聽到，150 美元是盈虧平衡點。這個數字急劇上升。正如 Deck 所說，看，我們不需要它達到 200 美元或 300 美元才能做得好，但它所處的位置很有趣。看，我不認為 150 美元是一個正常的未來價格結構，我們的成本——我們的價格結構將成為未來的常態。

Next question comes from Chris LaFemina with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Chris LaFemina。

I apologize. I mean, you touched on some of this already, but Deck, you were talking about kind of the structural supply problems in the seaborne coal market, which are not going to get solved easily. And we went through a year last year when Chinese demand for met coal at least was very, very weak and Chinese domestic coal production increased to us. So pretty astonishing when you consider how bad China was last year, how strong in the coal markets were anyway. So the debate now that we're hearing from a lot of investors is whether or not this China recovery will be steel intensive. And I think the overwhelming consensus view is that it's going to be consumer driven. It's not going to be about steel. But we're hearing from some of the big iron ore miners that they're already seeing evidence of a pickup in activity in real estate and construction. And there's been a lot of policy shifts in the China housing market that could drive potentially a pretty strong recovery in kind of steel for construction, which I think the market is probably not really expecting.

我道歉。我的意思是，你已經談到了其中的一些，但是 Deck，你在談論海運煤炭市場的結構性供應問題，這些問題不會輕易解決。去年我們經歷了一年，當時中國對冶煉煤的需求至少非常非常疲軟，而中國國內的煤炭產量增加了。當你考慮到去年中國的表現有多糟糕，煤炭市場的強勁表現時，你會感到非常驚訝。因此，現在我們從很多投資者那裡聽到的爭論是，中國的複蘇是否將是鋼鐵密集型的。我認為壓倒性的共識是它將由消費者驅動。這與鋼鐵無關。但我們從一些大型鐵礦石開採商那裡聽說，他們已經看到房地產和建築活動回升的證據。中國房地產市場出現了很多政策轉變，可能會推動建築用鋼材出現相當強勁的複蘇，我認為市場可能並沒有真正預期到這一點。

So my first question is, are you guys seeing any evidence yet of an increase in kind of demand in the Chinese steel markets? And then secondly, if that does indeed play out and you get a kind of stronger-than-expected recovery in Chinese steel demand, what does that do to the met coal market? I mean, again, coming off of a year where Chinese demand was horrific, what happens if that does a bit of a V-shaped recovery? How do we -- how does the world solve that problem for a lack of met coal?

所以我的第一個問題是，你們是否看到任何證據表明中國鋼鐵市場的需求有所增加？其次，如果這確實奏效並且中國鋼鐵需求出現強於預期的複蘇，那麼這對冶煉煤市場有何影響？我的意思是，再一次，在中國需求可怕的一年結束後，如果出現一點 V 型複蘇會怎樣？我們如何 - 世界如何解決缺乏冶煉煤的問題？

Chris, it's Deck. It's such a good question. And as indicated, look, last year, hot metal production was way down, and that's the key driver in coking coal markets. And yes, coking coal markets were very robust. And so if China continues to import 40 million tons of seaborne coking coal, that certainly supports the market we're in. If that does, in fact, ratchet up, you're right, that's additional pressure. We saw -- in November, you had 25 million tons or so of European steel mill capacity that was idle, 10 million tons of that has now come back. So again, we're seeing signs of pick up elsewhere as well. And so if China weighed back into this market in a significant way, it certainly could provide additional support. And so we agree.

克里斯，是戴克。這是一個很好的問題。正如所指出的那樣，看，去年，鐵水產量大幅下降，這是煉焦煤市場的主要驅動力。是的，煉焦煤市場非常強勁。因此，如果中國繼續進口 4000 萬噸海運煉焦煤，那肯定會支持我們所處的市場。如果確實如此，實際上會增加，你是對的，那是額外的壓力。我們看到 - 11 月，您有 2500 萬噸左右的歐洲鋼廠閒置產能，其中 1000 萬噸現在已經恢復。因此，我們再次看到其他地方也有回升的跡象。因此，如果中國以重要的方式重新進入這個市場，它肯定會提供額外的支持。所以我們同意。

The market continues -- supply side continues to look very tight. It's not entirely evident where the volumes are going to come from. There are a lot of variables. I mean, on the other side of the equation with thermal prices down, you're going to see less crossover tons, but that's relatively modest compared to the sort of the driver represented by increased hot metal production. So there are a lot of puts and takes here, but we also see a pretty constructive market environment as we sort of head into 2023.

市場繼續——供應方面繼續看起來非常緊張。這些數量的來源並不完全清楚。有很多變數。我的意思是，在等式的另一邊，熱金屬價格下降，你會看到交叉噸數減少，但與鐵水產量增加所代表的那種驅動因素相比，這是相對溫和的。所以這裡有很多看跌期權，但隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們也看到了一個非常有建設性的市場環境。

The next question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。

I first wanted to touch on the initial target being reached at the reclamation fund. Should we expect kind of minimal contributions this year or not? And if so, what could be maybe the contributions longer term?

我首先想談談填海基金達到的初步目標。我們是否應該期待今年的最低限度捐款？如果是這樣，那麼長期的貢獻可能是什麼？

Yes. Lucas, we essentially, as we noted, really completed the accelerated funding during 2022. And what we're really going to target now is just to make sure that as changes in that future obligation take place that we're continuing to try and match what the ultimate obligation will be with what's in the fund. So I think this year, you could see that fund grow by somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million. Some of that's going to be interest, that's just accruing on what's there. Some of it will be modest contributions that we'll make over the course of the year. And then look, as we look at it in the interest rate environment that we're in, after this year, I'm not sure we'll have to make much in the way of additional contributions as the interest accrues on that fund that we've already got in place. I think we're going to be in very good shape to have the obligation fully funded.

是的。盧卡斯，正如我們指出的那樣，我們基本上在 2022 年真正完成了加速資助。我們現在真正要瞄準的只是確保隨著未來義務發生變化，我們將繼續嘗試和匹配基金中的最終義務是什麼。所以我認為今年，你可以看到該基金增長了 2000 萬美元左右。其中一些會產生利息，這只是根據那裡的東西積累的。其中一些將是我們將在這一年中做出的微薄貢獻。然後看看，當我們在我們所處的利率環境中看待它時，今年之後，我不確定我們是否必須以額外捐款的方式做出很多貢獻，因為該基金的利息會增加我們已經到位了。我認為我們將處於非常好的狀態，以充分資助這項義務。

I think for modeling, though, Matt, the best way to look at it is about $5 million a quarter.

不過，我認為對於模特來說，馬特，最好的看待它的方式是每季度大約 500 萬美元。

Correct.

正確的。

Very helpful. And Matt, I do want to congratulate you on the share repurchases that was about $20 per share of better pricing, thanks to the convert acquisitions you did. So well done there. Matt, can you remind us what the share count is today?

很有幫助。 Matt，我確實要祝賀你以每股 20 美元的價格回購股票，這要歸功於你所做的轉換收購。那裡做得很好。馬特，你能提醒我們今天的股票數量嗎？

So the diluted share count today is, call it, just under 20 million shares. That includes all of what's underlying the remaining convertible bonds, the warrants that are outstanding in the employee shares. The basic shares today, call it, just around 17.5 million shares.

所以今天稀釋後的股票數量，可以稱之為，略低於 2000 萬股。這包括所有剩餘可轉換債券的基礎，即員工股份中已發行的認股權證。今天的基本股，大約是 1750 萬股。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Paul Lang, CEO and President, for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給首席執行官兼總裁 Paul Lang，聽取任何閉幕詞。

I want to thank you again for your interest in Arch.

我想再次感謝您對 Arch 的興趣。

2022 was a year of tremendous accomplishments for the company in terms of ESG execution, financial performance, shareholder returns and critically building the foundation for even a stronger future. With our clear strategic direction, low cost, strong book of business and talented team, I'm confident that we're poised for ongoing success as we move into 2023 and beyond.

2022 年是公司在 ESG 執行、財務業績、股東回報以及為更強大的未來奠定基礎方面取得巨大成就的一年。憑藉我們明確的戰略方向、低成本、強大的業務和才華橫溢的團隊，我相信我們將在進入 2023 年及以後取得持續的成功。

With that, operator, we'll conclude the call, and we look forward to reporting to the group in late April. Stay safe and healthy, everyone.

有了這個，接線員，我們將結束通話，我們期待在 4 月下旬向小組報告。每個人都保持安全和健康。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。