Apple Hospitality REIT Inc (APLE) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Apple Hospitality REIT First Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Apple Hospitality REIT 2019 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kelly Clarke, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、投資者關係副總裁凱利克拉克 (Kelly Clarke)。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning. We welcome you to Apple Hospitality REIT's First Quarter 2019 Earnings Call on this the 9th day of May 2019.

謝謝，早安。歡迎您參加 2019 年 5 月 9 日舉行的 Apple Hospitality REIT 2019 年第一季財報電話會議。

Today's call will be based on the first quarter 2019 earnings release, which was distributed yesterday afternoon. As a reminder, today's call will contain forward-looking statements as defined by federal securities laws, including statements regarding future operating results. These statements involve known and unknown risks and other factors, which may cause actual results, performance or achievements of Apple Hospitality to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

今天的電話會議將基於昨天下午發布的 2019 年第一季財報。提醒一下，今天的電話會議將包含聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述，包括有關未來營運績效的陳述。這些聲明涉及已知和未知的風險和其他因素，可能導致 Apple Hospitality 的實際結果、業績或成就與此類前瞻性聲明表達或暗示的未來結果、業績或成就有重大差異。

Participants should carefully review our financial statements and the notes thereto as well as the risk factors described in Apple Hospitality's 2018 Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that Apple Hospitality makes speaks only as of today, and the company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

參與者應仔細審查我們的財務報表及其附註以及 Apple Hospitality 2018 年 10-K 表格和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中所述的風險因素。Apple Hospitality 所做的任何前瞻性陳述僅代表今日的觀點，除非法律要求，否則本公司不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

In addition, certain non-GAAP measures of performance, such as EBITDA, EBITDAre, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted hotel EBITDA, FFO, modified FFO will be discussed during this call. We encourage participants to review reconciliations of those measures to GAAP measures as included in yesterday's earnings release and other filings with the SEC. For a copy of the earnings release or additional information about the company, please visit applehospitalityreit.com.

此外，本次電話會議也將討論某些非 GAAP 績效指標，例如 EBITDA、EBITDAre、調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的飯店 EBITDA、FFO、修改後的 FFO。我們鼓勵參與者審查昨天的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中包含的這些指標與 GAAP 指標的對帳。如需查看收益報告副本或有關該公司的更多信息，請訪問 applehospitalityreit.com。

This morning, Justin Knight, our Chief Executive Officer; Krissy Gathright, our Chief Operating Officer; and Bryan Peery, our Chief Financial Officer, will provide an overview of our results for the first quarter 2019 and an outlook for the sector and for the company. Following the overview, we will open the call for Q&A.

今天上午，我們的執行長賈斯汀奈特 (Justin Knight)； Krissy Gathright，我們的營運長；我們的財務長 Bryan Peery 將概述我們 2019 年第一季度的業績以及該行業和公司的前景。概述之後，我們將開始問答環節。

At this time, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to our CEO, Justin Knight.

現在，我很高興將電話轉給我們的執行長賈斯汀奈特 (Justin Knight)。

Thank you, Kelly. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Performance across our portfolio of hotels during the first quarter was steady and generally in line with our expectations. Comparable hotels RevPAR increased by 0.1% in the quarter, driven by 1.2% increase in average daily rates, and adjusted EBITDA grew approximately 0.5% for the quarter.

謝謝你，凱利。早安，感謝您今天加入我們。第一季度，我們旗下飯店的表現穩定，基本上符合我們的預期。本季可比飯店 RevPAR 成長 0.1%，受平均每日房價成長 1.2% 的推動，本季調整後 EBITDA 成長約 0.5%。

Our asset management and on-site management teams have done an exceptional job during this period of moderate top line growth to maximize profitability through strategic revenue management and effective cost control measures. With that in mind, we are pleased to report a strong comparable hotels adjusted hotel EBITDA margin of 36% for the quarter. Our 2019 guidance was updated to reflect our performance to date and adoption of a new lease accounting standard, which Bryan will discuss in greater detail.

我們的資產管理和現場管理團隊在這一適度收入成長期間表現出色，透過策略性收入管理和有效的成本控制措施實現了獲利能力最大化。考慮到這一點，我們很高興地報告本季可比飯店調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率強勁，達到 36%。我們對 2019 年的指導進行了更新，以反映我們迄今為止的業績和新租賃會計準則的採用，Bryan 將對此進行更詳細的討論。

We continue to anticipate demand growth will remain healthy, new supply will continue to impact property level performance in several of our markets and there will be continued cost and wage pressures during the year. Given the size, quality, diversification and effective age of our portfolio of rooms-focused hotels and the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet, we remain confident we are well positioned to maximize operating results and pursue opportunities in the marketplace as they arise.

我們繼續預計需求成長將保持健康，新供應將繼續影響我們多個市場的房地產水平表現，並且今年仍將存在成本和薪資壓力。鑑於我們以客房為中心的酒店組合的規模、品質、多樣化和有效年限，以及我們資產負債表的實力和靈活性，我們仍然相信，我們完全有能力最大化經營業績，並在市場出現機會時抓住機會。

We're pleased to have completed the sale of 9 hotels, totaling just over 1,000 guest rooms during the quarter, for $95 million. We achieved attractive pricing for the portfolio and through the transactions, we reduced our exposure to certain lower RevPAR markets, which we believe will enhance the long-term strength and stability of our remaining hospitality platform. We acquired 2 hotels during the quarter, the existing Hampton Inn & Suites in St. Paul, Minnesota, and the newly constructed Home2 Suites in Orlando, Florida, for a combined total of $52 million.

我們很高興在本季完成了 9 家飯店的銷售，總計超過 1,000 間客房，售價為 9,500 萬美元。我們為投資組合實現了有吸引力的定價，並且透過交易，我們減少了對某些較低 RevPAR 市場的曝險，我們相信這將增強我們剩餘酒店平台的長期實力和穩定性。我們在本季收購了 2 家飯店，即現有的聖路易斯漢普頓套房飯店。明尼蘇達州聖保羅的 Home2 Suites 酒店以及佛羅裡達州奧蘭多新建的 Home2 Suites 酒店，總價值 5,200 萬美元。

Currently, we have 5 hotels under contract for acquisition, all of which are under development for an aggregate expected purchase price of $159 million. We have highlighted 4 of the hotels under contract on previous calls and they include: the Hyatt Place and Hyatt House in Tempe, Arizona; and the Hampton Inn & Suites and Home2 Suites in Cape Canaveral, Florida. We anticipate construction of these 4 hotels will be completed in 2020.

目前，我們有 5 家酒店簽訂了收購合同，所有酒店均在開發中，預計總收購價為 1.59 億美元。我們在先前的電話中重點介紹了 4 家簽約的酒店，包括：亞利桑那州坦佩的凱悅嘉軒酒店和凱悅嘉寓酒店；以及位於佛羅裡達州卡納維拉爾角的漢普頓酒店及套房 (Hampton Inn & Suites) 和 Home2 Suites。我們預計這 4 間飯店將於 2020 年完工。

Most recently, we entered into a purchase contract for a Courtyard to be built in Downtown Denver, Colorado with an expected completion date of 2021. The hotel is planned for the Union Station LoDo neighborhood in Downtown Denver. The vibrant location with an abundance of demand drivers is within walking distance of Union Station and Coors Field among many other attractions and businesses. We believe that through these transactions, we will be able to continue to enhance our market mix and the value of our overall portfolio.

最近，我們簽訂了一份購買合同，將在科羅拉多州丹佛市中心建造一座庭院，預計竣工日期為 2021 年。該酒店計劃建於丹佛市中心的聯合車站 LoDo 街區。該地充滿活力，擁有豐富的需求驅動因素，步行即可到達聯合車站、庫爾斯球場以及許多其他景點和企業。我們相信，透過這些交易，我們將能夠繼續增強我們的市場組合和整體投資組合的價值。

Although the strength of the broader economy continues to drive demand for travel, new supply remains a headwind for our portfolio in many of our markets. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 66.2% of our properties had one or more upper midscale, upscale or upper upscale new construction projects within a 5-mile radius, which represents an uptick from what we reported at the end of the fourth quarter.

儘管整體經濟的強勁勢頭繼續推動旅遊需求，但新的供應仍然是我們在許多市場的投資組合面臨的阻力。截至第一季末，我們約有 66.2% 的物業在 5 英里半徑範圍內擁有一個或多個中高檔、高檔或超高檔新建項目，這比我們第四季度末報告的數字有所上升。

As construction costs continue to rise, we remain optimistic that new supply will begin to peak over the next year to 1.5 years and begin to represent less of a headwind for us.

隨著建築成本持續上升，我們仍然樂觀地認為，未來一年到一年半內，新供應量將開始達到峰值，並開始減輕我們的阻力。

With the strength of our brands, our consistent reinvestment, our locations within markets and the quality of our on-site management teams, we are confident that our portfolio is uniquely positioned to remain competitive over the long term despite near-term increased competition from newly opened hotels.

憑藉我們品牌的實力、我們持續的再投資、我們在市場中的位置以及我們現場管理團隊的素質，我們相信，儘管近期新開業酒店的競爭加劇，我們的投資組合仍具有獨特的優勢，能夠在長期內保持競爭力。

Consistent reinvestment in our hotels enables us to maintain competitive positioning within our markets and helps to mitigate the impact of competing new supply. In addition to cyclical renovations at our hotels, we continually seek opportunities to implement environmental efficiency enhancements, including equipment upgrades and replacements that reduce energy and water consumption and improve waste management.

持續對飯店進行再投資使我們能夠在市場中保持競爭地位，並有助於減輕新供應競爭的影響。除了對飯店進行週期性翻新外，我們還不斷尋找機會實施環境效率增強措施，包括設備升級和更換，以減少能源和水的消耗並改善廢棄物管理。

By investing in proven sustainability practices, we are able to enhance operating performance at our hotels, while reducing the negative impact of our business on the environment. Our team is also continually evaluating opportunities to enhance the competitive position of our properties and drive incremental return on our investments.

透過投資經過驗證的可持續發展實踐，我們能夠提高酒店的營運業績，同時減少我們的業務對環境的負面影響。我們的團隊也在不斷評估機會，以增強我們物業的競爭地位並推動投資的增量回報。

During the first quarter, the company invested approximately $19 million in renovations, and we plan to spend an additional $60 million to $70 million during the remainder of 2019, which includes the beginning of the renovation at our pool service, Marriott in Richmond, Virginia.

在第一季度，該公司投資了約 1,900 萬美元用於翻新工程，我們計劃在 2019 年剩餘時間內再投資 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元，其中包括開始對我們位於維吉尼亞州里士滿的泳池服務萬豪酒店進行翻新。

Also of note, we have property improvement plans that will be completed in the second quarter for our recently purchased Atlanta and Memphis Hampton Inn & Suites. These hotels are well located and strong performers and despite the short-term disruption, we'll benefit from the reinvestment as each of their markets continue to drive increased demand from demographic shifts and city investments and amenities and attractions. Our portfolio of 234 hotels is broadly diversified across 87 U.S. markets to reduce volatility and provide exposure to a variety of industries and demand generators.

另外值得注意的是，我們最近收購的亞特蘭大和孟菲斯漢普頓酒店及套房的物業改善計劃將於第二季完成。這些飯店地理位置優越、業績強勁，儘管短期幹擾，但我們將受益於再投資，因為每個飯店市場都將繼續推動人口結構變化、城市投資、便利設施和景點的需求成長。我們的 234 家飯店組合廣泛分佈於美國 87 個市場，以降低波動性並接觸各種行業和需求產生器。

I will now hand the call over to Krissy to provide additional detail regarding performance across our markets during the first quarter of 2019.

現在我將把電話交給克莉絲，讓她提供有關 2019 年第一季各個市場表現的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Justin. We are very pleased with our solid start to the year. With a relatively steady supply and demand trends, we reported flat RevPAR growth at the midpoint of our full year range. Staying strong increases in parking and late cancellation revenue more than offset a modest decline in food and beverage revenue. Optimal revenue mix management and impressive cost control enabled us to maintain the strong growth operating profit margin.

謝謝你，賈斯汀。我們對今年的良好開局感到非常高興。由於供需趨勢相對穩定，我們報告全年中期每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長持平。停車和延遲取消收入的強勁增長足以抵消食品和飲料收入的輕微下降。最佳的收入組合管理和出色的成本控制使我們能夠保持強勁增長的營業利潤率。

Same-store payroll increased 3.5% per occupied room compared to an increase of approximately 4% factored into our guidance. Partially offsetting the payroll increase, we continue to benefit from energy efficiency initiatives and lower loyalty program charges.

同店每間入住客房的薪資成長了 3.5%，而我們的預期增幅約為 4%。部分抵銷了薪資成長的影響，我們繼續受益於能源效率舉措和較低的忠誠度計劃費用。

Comparable hotel EBITDA margin declined only 10 basis points, with a 50 basis point benefit from the ground lease reclassification offset by a 60 basis point impact from increase insurance and property taxes.

可比飯店 EBITDA 利潤率僅下降 10 個基點，其中土地租賃重新分類帶來的 50 個基點收益被保險和財產稅增加帶來的 60 個基點的影響所抵消。

On the revenue side, we were pleased to see continued increases in our corporate-negotiated and highest-rated retail segments. Government and group mix declined modestly, mainly attributable to the partial government shutdown, non-repeat projects in certain markets and weather-related sports group cancellations.

在收入方面，我們很高興看到公司協商的零售部門和最高評級的零售部門持續成長。政府和團體組合略有下降，主要原因是部分政府關閉、某些市場的非重複項目以及與天氣有關的體育團體取消。

As for individual market performance, with expanding economic and abundant recreational opportunities year-round, several markets in the Sun Belt remain strong performers, including Atlanta, Birmingham, Raleigh, Durham, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Huntsville, Montgomery, Phoenix and Tucson.

至於個別市場的表現，隨著全年經濟的不斷擴大和豐富的娛樂機會，陽光地帶的幾個市場仍然表現強勁，包括亞特蘭大、伯明罕、羅利、達勒姆、格林斯伯勒、溫斯頓塞勒姆、亨茨維爾、蒙哥馬利、菲尼克斯和圖森。

Our North Carolina East and Panama City markets benefited from hurricane recovery business, which will likely dissipate for the former by the end of the second quarter, but should continue for the latter through the remainder of the year.

我們的北卡羅來納東部和巴拿馬城市場受益於颶風恢復業務，前者的這種業務可能在第二季末消失，但後者的這種業務應該會在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。

Our markets with softer hotel performance included Houston, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Austin, Richmond, Oklahoma City and Dallas. Several Florida and Texas markets were impacted by decreased demand related to hurricane recovery business in the previous year as well as the ramping of new supply. Additionally, in Austin, 3 of our hotels were undergoing renovations during the first quarter.

飯店業績較差的市場包括休士頓、邁阿密、勞德代爾堡、奧蘭多、奧斯汀、里士滿、俄克拉荷馬城和達拉斯。佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的幾個市場受到了去年颶風恢復業務相關需求下降以及新供應增加的影響。此外，在奧斯汀，我們的三家酒店在第一季正在進行裝修。

While the Oklahoma City market saw healthy demand increases, absorption of new supply is temporarily impacting RevPAR growth. The Oklahoma City market is eagerly awaiting the opening of brand-new 275,000 square foot convention center scheduled to debut in 2020. Another eagerly awaited opening, the new Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge theme area in Walt Disney World and Disneyland will benefit the Orlando as well as the Anaheim market later this year.

儘管俄克拉荷馬城市場的需求健康成長，但新供應的吸收暫時影響了 RevPAR 的成長。俄克拉荷馬城市場正熱切期待計劃於 2020 年開幕的全新 275,000 平方英尺會議中心。另一個備受期待的開幕項目是華特迪士尼世界和迪士尼樂園的全新星球大戰：銀河邊緣主題區，它將在今年晚些時候為奧蘭多和阿納海姆市場帶來好處。

As discussed, in certain markets, there was a headwind from non-repeat natural disaster business, while in other markets there was a tailwind from continuing recovery business. We estimate that the natural disasters in Alaska, North Carolina, Florida and Texas had a slightly net negative impact for the quarter, which was offset by the Atlanta Super Bowl benefit.

如上所述，在某些市場，非重​​複性自然災害業務帶來了阻力，而在其他市場，持續的復原業務帶來了順風。我們估計，阿拉斯加、北卡羅來納州、佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的自然災害對本季度產生了輕微的淨負面影響，但被亞特蘭大超級碗的收益所抵消。

As per outlook, incorporating calendar shifts and renovation timing, we anticipate that RevPAR growth for the second quarter will be at the low end to the midpoint of our full year outlook with a pickup in the third quarter.

根據展望，結合日曆變化和裝修時間，我們預計第二季的 RevPAR 成長將處於全年預期的低端到中點，第三季將有所回升。

Our asset management team and our operators are working diligently to manage expenses with the goal of continued minimization of margin loss, while still providing a quality guest experience.

我們的資產管理團隊和營運商正在努力管理費用，目標是繼續減少利潤損失，同時仍提供優質的客戶體驗。

We feel strongly that aligning management company compensation with achievement of our balance scorecard metrics has and will continue to drive better results versus more traditional management compensation arrangement.

我們強烈感覺到，與更傳統的管理薪酬安排相比，將管理公司的薪酬與平衡記分卡指標的實現相結合，已經並將繼續帶來更好的結果。

I will now turn the call over to Bryan to provide additional detail on our financial results.

現在我將把電話轉給布萊恩，讓他提供更多關於我們財務表現的細節。

Thanks, Krissy, and good morning. Summarizing some of our results for the quarter. Total revenue was $304 million, an increase of 2% from the first quarter of 2018. Adjusted EBITDA was $101 million compared to $100 million in the same period of 2018, and modified FFO per share was $0.38 flat -- per share flat compared to last year.

謝謝，克麗西，早安。總結本季的一些業績。總營收為 3.04 億美元，較 2018 年第一季成長 2%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.01 億美元，而 2018 年同期為 1 億美元，調整後每股 FFO 為 0.38 美元，與去年同期持平。

G&A expense for the quarter of -- first quarter of 2019 was $8.1 million, an increase of $1.3 million primarily due to year-to-date improvement under the company's performance-based incentive plan came to -- compared to the same period of 2018 and management transition costs. With the ongoing management transition and assuming performance under the incentive plan continues similar to the first quarter, we would expect similar increases for the remainder of the year in these costs.

2019 年第一季的一般及行政費用為 810 萬美元，較 2018 年同期增加 130 萬美元，主要原因是公司基於績效的激勵計劃今年迄今有所改善，且管理層過渡成本有所下降。隨著管理層的持續過渡，並假設激勵計劃下的業績繼續與第一季相似，我們預計今年剩餘時間內這些成本將出現類似的成長。

We finished the quarter with $1.4 billion in outstanding debt and $235 million of availability on our credit facilities. The weighted average maturity of our outstanding debt was 5.1 years with a current average rate of 3.8%. 77% of our debt was effectively fixed rate with the weighted average rate of 4% and an average remaining term of 4.1 years.

本季末，我們的未償債務為 14 億美元，可用信貸額度為 2.35 億美元。我們未償還債務的加權平均期限為 5.1 年，目前平均利率為 3.8%。我們的債務中有 77% 實際上是固定利率，加權平均利率為 4%，平均剩餘期限為 4.1 年。

Justin mentioned we adopted the new accounting lease standard on January 1 of this year. This resulted in an increase of roughly $147 million in assets and $152 million in liabilities on our balance sheet at the end of the quarter related to ground and other leases, with the difference as a cumulative adjustment to shareholders' equity.

Justin 提到我們在今年 1 月 1 日採用了新的會計租賃準則。這導致本季末我們的資產負債表上與土地和其他租賃相關的資產增加約 1.47 億美元，負債增加 1.52 億美元，差額作為股東權益的累積調整。

This includes reclassifying 4 ground leases from operating to financing leases based on the new definition of financing -- finance leases, which results in a couple of reclassifications effective in 2019 on the income statement side. During the first quarter, we recognized $1.8 million of interest expense and $1 million of amortization expense related to the 4 financed leases.

其中包括根據融資的新定義——融資租賃，將 4 項土地租賃從經營租賃重新分類為融資租賃，這導致 2019 年損益表方面出現了幾項重新分類。在第一季度，我們確認了與 4 項融資租賃相關的 180 萬美元的利息費用和 100 萬美元的攤銷費用。

As the leases continue to be classified as operating leases, we would have instead recognized $1.6 million in cash operating ground lease expense and $1 million in noncash straight-line rent expense and amortization of intangible lease expense. For the full year of 2019, the effect of this accounting change is a roughly $7 million increase to adjusted EBITDA and a decreased modified FFO of $1.2 million.

由於租賃繼續被歸類為營業租賃，我們將確認 160 萬美元的現金經營場地租賃費用和 100 萬美元的非現金直線租金費用和無形租賃費用攤銷。對於 2019 年全年而言，這項會計變更的影響是調整後的 EBITDA 增加約 700 萬美元，調整後的 FFO 減少 120 萬美元。

Based on our operating performance to date, the completion of the sale of the portfolio of 9 hotels and acquisition of 2 hotels in March and the lease accounting change, we have increased our estimated results for 2019 for comparable hotels, adjusted EBITDA margin percent and adjusted EBITDA and maintained our estimated comparable hotels RevPAR change from the guidance we provided in February.

根據我們迄今為止的經營業績、3 月份完成的 9 家酒店組合出售和 2 家酒店的收購以及租賃會計變更，我們提高了 2019 年可比酒店的預計業績、調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率百分比和調整後的 EBITDA，並維持了可比酒店 RevPAR 變化的預計，與我們 2 月份提供的指引一致。

Our current guidance for 2019 is: Net income between $167 million and $192 million; comparable hotels RevPAR change between negative 1% and plus 1%; comparable hotels adjusted hotel EBITDA margin between 36.2% and 37.2%; and adjusted EBITDA between $425 million and $445 million.

我們目前對 2019 年的預期是：淨收入在 1.67 億美元至 1.92 億美元之間；可比酒店 RevPAR 變化在 -1% 和 +1% 之間；可比酒店調整後酒店 EBITDA 利潤率在 36.2% 至 37.2% 之間；調整後的EBITDA 4.25億美元至4.25億美元之間。

During the quarter, the company paid distributions of $0.30 per share or a total of approximately $67 million. The annualized $1.20 per common share represents an annual 7.3% yield based on our May 6 closing price of $16.55. This month is the fourth anniversary of our listing on the New York Stock Exchange and during that period, our shareholders have earned over $1 billion in dividends.

本季度，該公司支付了每股 0.30 美元的分配，總計約 6,700 萬美元。根據我們 5 月 6 日 16.55 美元的收盤價計算，每股普通股年化收益 1.20 美元，相當於年收益率 7.3%。本月是我們在紐約證券交易所上市四週年，在此期間，我們的股東獲得了超過 10 億美元的股息。

I believe we can continue to operate effectively against our strategy and over the long term, we are well positioned to meaningfully increase shareholder value. Thank you for joining us this morning.

我相信我們可以繼續按照我們的策略有效地運作，並且從長遠來看，我們有能力顯著提高股東價值。感謝您今天上午加入我們。

We will now open up the call for questions.

我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt。

Justin, just curious if the uptick in the new supply you referenced is really concentrated in markets that you'd characterize as already supply challenged? Or are you seeing new markets being impacted?

賈斯汀，我只是好奇，您提到的新供應量的增加是否真的集中在您認為已經面臨供應挑戰的市場？或者您看到新市場受到影響？

The number we quoted highlights the fact that we have an increase in the number of markets in total that are being impacted by new supply. If you look at supply as a percentage increase across our portfolio, we continue to be roughly in line with national averages. However -- and I have highlighted this in past calls and in our conversations, supply is coming to the markets that have the strongest performance, so markets that are producing the highest RevPAR and have over the past several years produced the best growth are those markets that are seeing new supply. But the uptick from last quarter is the -- and the number that I quoted shows that we have more markets now and is not indicative of increased supply levels in markets where we're already seeing it.

我們引用的數字突顯了這樣一個事實：受新供應影響的市場總數增加。如果將供應量視為我們投資組合的百分比成長，我們仍然大致與全國平均水平保持一致。然而——我在過去的電話會議和談話中都強調過這一點，供應正在流向表現最強勁的市場，因此，那些產生最高 RevPAR 並在過去幾年中產生最佳增長的市場是那些出現新供應的市場。但與上一季相比有所上升——我引用的數字表明我們現在擁有更多的市場，但並不代表我們已經看到的市場供應水平有所增加。

The other factor that's playing into that is -- and we've talked about this in the past, it's taking longer for projects, once they're in the ground, to actually be completed and delivered. So a portion of the uptick, we believe, is driven not by an absolute increase in the supply picture. But because we're tracking projects that are under construction, the longer those projects take to be completed, the longer they're reflected in that number.

影響這一問題的另一個因素是——我們過去曾討論過這個問題，專案一旦開工，就需要更長的時間才能真正完成和交付。因此，我們認為，部分上漲並非由供應狀況的絕對增加所推動。但因為我們追蹤的是正在建造的項目，所以這些項目完成的時間越長，反映在數字中的時間就越長。

All right. Got it. And then with the 9 assets that have now been sold, are you actively marketing the remaining 7 that were originally under contract or still negotiating, I guess, with the original buyer about a sale potentially down the road?

好的。知道了。那麼，對於現在已經售出的 9 項資產，您是否正在積極行銷剩餘的 7 項原先簽訂合約的資產，或者我猜，您是否仍在與原始買家就未來可能的銷售進行談判？

That's a good question. We actually are continually looking at the entirety of our portfolio and looking for opportunities to monetize or to realize value through sale transactions. We're continuing to explore options for the assets that were part of the original portfolio, but not exclusively. And because the market continues to appear to be relatively strong at least relative to the past several years in terms of transaction volume, we're optimistic that we'll continue to find opportunities to prune from our portfolio and to replace with assets that we think, based on our total portfolio, have greater value.

這是個好問題。實際上，我們一直在關注我們的整個投資組合，尋找透過銷售交易實現貨幣化或價值的機會。我們將繼續探索原始投資組合中資產的選擇，但不限於此。而且由於市場在交易量方面至少相對於過去幾年繼續表現得相對強勁，我們樂觀地認為，我們將繼續尋找機會從我們的投資組合中精簡，並用我們認為基於我們的總投資組合具有更高價值的資產進行替換。

So as we think about as potential sales materialize, how should we think about reinvestment? I mean, you've talked about wanting to gain scale to the Hyatt brand over time. Is there anything on the horizon that could help you grow your exposure to that brand in the near term?

那麼，當我們考慮潛在銷售實現時，我們應該如何考慮再投資？我的意思是，您曾談到希望隨著時間的推移擴大凱悅品牌的規模。近期內有什麼措施可以幫助您擴大品牌的知名度？

Well, we have the 2 assets that are under construction that will be delivered in 2020. We continue to underwrite a number of Hyatt assets, but not exclusively. We continue to see opportunity as well within the Marriott and Hilton brand families.

嗯，我們有 2 項資產正在建設中，將於 2020 年交付。我們繼續承保凱悅的多項資產，但並非獨家承保。我們繼續在萬豪和希爾頓品牌系列中看到機會。

Our next question comes from Bryan Meher with B. Riley FBR.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley FBR 的 Bryan Meher。

Couple of quick questions. What sources -- you've noted the construction hotels, and we've understood that for a while. But what sources are you using to identify acquisition targets, which are yielding kind of the best results? And it doesn't seem like you're doing a ton of acquisitions just buying from others.

幾個簡單的問題。哪些消息來源——您已經注意到酒店建設，並且我們已經了解了一段時間了。但是您使用什麼來源來確定收購目標，哪些目標可以產生最好的結果？而且看起來你並沒有進行大量收購，只是從別人那裡購買。

Well -- I mean, the reality is we're not doing a ton of acquisitions in total. From a pay standpoint, I think the read-through should be that we're being incredibly selective and acting on acquisitions in today's environment only where we feel there is meaningful value to be added to our portfolio.

嗯——我的意思是，事實上我們總共並沒有進行大量的收購。從薪酬角度來看，我認為應該這樣解讀：在當今環境下，我們非常謹慎地進行收購，只有當我們認為收購能夠為我們的投資組合增加有意義的價值時，我們才會採取行動。

If you look at the deals, the existing deals that we're acquiring, the sources are mixed. A portion of them have been brokered and a portion that comes to us directly through longstanding relationships. We're fortunate, in that we've been active players from an acquisition standpoint for nearly 2 decades now within the select service space, and have over that period of time developed strong relationships with a number of developers and operators. And we continue to use those in addition to the relationships that we have with the brokerage community to source deals, existing deals.

如果你看一下這些交易，你會發現我們正在收購的現有交易的來源是混合的。其中一部分是透過經紀人獲得的，一部分是透過長期合作關係直接獲得的。我們很幸運，從收購的角度來看，我們在精選服務領域已經活躍了近 20 年，並且在此期間與許多開發商和營運商建立了牢固的關係。除了我們與經紀界的關係之外，我們還會繼續利用這些關係來尋找交易和現有交易。

How much can you typically say or has your experience been -- how much better is the cap rate, let's say, on an acquisition for a non-broker deal versus a broker deal?

您通常能說多少或您的經驗是——比方說，非經紀交易的收購與經紀交易的收購相比，資本化率要好多少？

A lot of it depends. So I'd say just because the deal is brokered, it doesn't mean that the process is more competitive. And we have, where we've acquired assets that have been brokered, realized, in many instances, substantial value. But our preference is generally to work directly with sellers with whom we have longstanding relationships. We found that there's payoff there. And you're seeing that a lot actually in our development pipeline. Looking specifically at the assets we have under contract in Cape Canaveral, for example, and the per keys that we're paying there versus the brokerage of Residence Inn that traded recently. We bought the Cape Canaveral Homewood Suites for about $165,000 a key and have under contract the Hampton Inn & Suites and Home2 for $208,000 a key. The Residence Inn recently treated in that market, and it's an older property with an anticipated PIP in the $30,000 a key neighborhood, the asset traded for just under $250,000 a key. And so I think where we've really been able to leverage our relationships into meaningful value is on the development side.

這在很大程度上取決於情況。所以我想說，僅僅因為交易是促成的，並不代表這個過程更具競爭力。而且，我們收購的資產在許多情況下都實現了巨大的價值。但我們通常傾向於直接與我們有長期合作關係的賣家合作。我們發現這是有回報的。事實上，您在我們的開發流程中經常會看到這種情況。例如，具體看一下我們在卡納維拉爾角簽訂的合約資產，以及我們在那裡支付的每間套房的費用與最近交易的 Residence Inn 經紀費用相比。我們以每把鑰匙約 165,000 美元的價格購買了卡納維拉爾角 Homewood Suites 酒店，並以每把鑰匙 208,000 美元的價格簽訂了漢普頓酒店及套房和 Home2 酒店的合約。Residence Inn 酒店最近在該市場開展業務，這是一處較老的酒店，預計每間客房的價格為 30,000 美元，該物業的交易價格略低於每間客房 250,000 美元。因此我認為我們真正能夠利用我們的關係創造有意義的價值的地方是在開發方面。

And just shifting gears, I think you made a comment in your prepared comments on decline, a modest decline in F&B, which is a little bit different than what we've heard from some of the other companies that have reported so far. Admittedly, many of those are full-service lodging REITs, but can you talk about what you are seeing there, because our experience has been this quarter we're seeing an uptick in out-of-room spend?

換個話題，我想您在準備好的評論中提到了餐飲業的下滑，適度下滑，這與我們從其他一些公司迄今為止的報告中所聽到的略有不同。不可否認，其中許多都是全方位服務的住宿房地產投資信託基金，但您能否談談您在那裡看到的情況，因為根據我們的經驗，本季度我們看到客房外支出有所上升？

Yes, Bryan. Actually, the decline in F&B, the majority of it was attributable to our full-service Marriott in Richmond, Virginia. And part of their challenge was that they had fewer citywide, so less room nights -- excuse me, less group room nights in the first quarter as well as there was -- in the market, some of their competitors had rooms that were under renovation in the previous year. So there was more in inventory to compete with. So the majority of that decline was related to that particular hotel. But also as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we did have some group cancellations that were related to the partial government shutdown as well as in certain markets, the increased rainy weather impacted some of our early season sports group. So with that, a little bit of a change in mix, there was a little bit less F&B revenue. We did not expect that to be -- continue at that decline for the rest of the year.

是的，布萊恩。實際上，餐飲業務的下滑，主要原因是我們位於弗吉尼亞州里士滿的全方位服務萬豪酒店。他們面臨的挑戰之一是，他們在全市範圍內的酒店數量減少，因此房間晚數也減少了——對不起，第一季度的團體房間晚數也減少了——市場上，他們的一些競爭對手的客房在前一年正在進行裝修。因此有更多的庫存可供競爭。因此，大部分的下降都與那家特定的旅館有關。但正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們確實有一些團體取消了活動，這與部分政府關閉有關，並且在某些市場，降雨天氣的增加影響了我們賽季初的一些運動團體。因此，隨著業務組合的一點變化，餐飲收入就會減少一點。我們沒想到今年剩餘時間還會持續出現這種下滑趨勢。

And can use to remind us lastly what your group business typically is as a percentage of your total business? And kind of how that's shaping up on a year-over-year basis for '19 over '18?

最後可以提醒我們，您的集團業務通常佔總業務的百分比是多少？那麼，2019 年與 2018 年相比，年比情況如何呢？

So it's typically between 14% and to 15% of room night mix. In the first quarter, it was down. We would expect that to pick up in the second and third quarter to be fairly flat year-over-year.

因此，它通常佔客房住宿費的 14% 至 15% 之間。第一季度，該數字有所下降。我們預計第二季和第三季的成長速度將與去年同期持平。

Our next question comes from Anthony Powell from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼·鮑威爾。

Just question on your underwriting for your new development deals. How has that changed over the past couple of years, given kind of the more moderate RevPAR growth environment? Are you sort of getting higher yields? Are you kind of being more conservative in kind of ramp up expectations? Just how has that changed recently?

只是詢問一下您對新開發交易的承保情況。鑑於 RevPAR 成長環境較為溫和，過去幾年的情況有何變化？您是否獲得了更高的收益？您是否在提高預期方面持更保守的態度？最近情況有何變化？

In reality, our methodology hasn't changed. As you highlight, specific market dynamics have changed somewhat. And in markets, where we anticipate slower growth just as in times past, we continue to underwrite that as part of our overall process. But as we look at new development deals, our underwriting anticipates that the deals will be accretive to EBITDA and to NAV upon stabilization. And if you look at how those deals have performed relative to our acquisition of existing assets, they're in line to better from a performance standpoint.

事實上，我們的方法並沒有改變。正如您所強調的，特定的市場動態已經發生了一些變化。在我們預計市場成長將像過去一樣放緩的情況下，我們將繼續將其作為我們整體流程的一部分進行承保。但當我們審視新的開發交易時，我們的承銷商預計這些交易在穩定後將增加 EBITDA 和 NAV。如果你看一下這些交易相對於我們收購現有資產的表現，從業績效角度來看，它們是更好的。

Got it. Okay. And so there's a lot of talk this quarter about market share shifts between -- tension between some of the larger brand families here in the U.S. I think some of that was centered on group, but did you see any of that in your portfolio?

知道了。好的。因此，本季有很多關於美國一些較大品牌家族之間市場份額轉移的討論——它們之間的緊張關係。我認為其中一些討論集中在集團上，但您在您的投資組合中看到過這種情況嗎？

So in terms of market share shifts, overall, for our portfolio, we saw that our portfolio grew the majority of -- over half of our hotels -- slightly more than half of our hotels actually grew market share, which is a pretty consistent trend when we have a largely geographic -- a large geographically diversified portfolio.

因此，就市場份額變化而言，總體而言，對於我們的投資組合而言，我們發現我們的投資組合中大部分酒店（超過一半的酒店）的市場份額都有所增長，略多於一半的酒店實際上增加了市場份額，當我們擁有一個地域多元化的大型投資組合時，這是一個相當一致的趨勢。

If we break it down between Hilton and Marriott, we saw -- for the most part, it was fairly consistent, we would say, we did see our Hilton hotels, there was a slightly larger percentage of our Hilton hotel that gained share versus our Marriott hotels. But I will caveat that there are a lot of dynamics that goes into market share gains and individual markets and individual hotels. So we didn't see anything that was overly alarming in terms of trends relative to market share between the individual brands, but we do continue to monitor that.

如果我們將希爾頓和萬豪進行比較，我們會發現 - 在大多數情況下，它是相當一致的，我們會說，我們確實看到了我們的希爾頓酒店，與萬豪酒店相比，希爾頓酒店的市場份額增長比例略大。但我要提醒的是，市佔率的成長、個別市場和個別飯店的動態因素很多。因此，就各個品牌之間的市場份額趨勢而言，我們並沒有發現任何過於令人擔憂的情況，但我們會繼續對此進行監控。

Our next question comes from Amanda Sweitzer with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德的阿曼達·斯威策。

You mentioned some higher parking fees this quarter. Can you talk about any other revenue management initiatives that you expect to drive growth this year?

您提到本季停車費有所上漲。您能談談今年預計能推動成長的其他營收管理措施嗎？

So we're continue to -- we're continually focusing on additional parking, and we should continue to see that benefit for the rest of the year because there were some markets where we found that we weren't charging for parking before and as part of our updated regular market surveys, we found there was opportunity to do so. We are also continuing to work on collection of late cancellation fees. We started that initiative very early last year and had a lot of great success and especially considering that it is still a very manual process for a portion of our hotels. So we would expect that to moderate some as we go throughout the year because of our early efforts last year, but we're still seeing above average growth there.

因此，我們將繼續進行——我們將繼續專注於增加停車位，並且我們應該在今年剩餘時間內繼續看到這一好處，因為我們發現在某些市場我們之前沒有收取停車費，並且作為我們更新的定期市場調查的一部分，我們發現有機會這樣做。我們還在繼續努力收取延遲取消費用。我們從去年年初就開始了這項計劃，並取得了很大的成功，尤其是考慮到對於我們的部分酒店來說，這仍然是一個非常手動的過程。因此，由於我們去年年初的努力，我們預計全年的成長速度會有所緩和，但我們仍然看到高於平均水平的成長。

In terms of other revenue management initiatives, we did recently hire a new Director of Revenue Strategy, that is the key focus area for us. And he is doing some deep dives with all of our management partners and identifying opportunities to make sure that, first, on the rooms revenue that we are -- that we have the right mix and we're driving business to the highest profit channels and we're actually seeing really good success there. But in combination with the brand's efforts around really promoting direct business and strategically taking OTA business when we need it, and then yielding it on this higher demand nights when we don't need it, we're actually seeing increased -- 80 -- for our portfolio 80 basis points in channel shifts from OTA business to brand.com contribution. So that also helps on our commissions and which then plays into our improvement in margins.

在其他收入管理舉措方面，我們最近確實聘請了一位新的收入策略總監，這是我們關注的重點領域。他正在與我們所有的管理合作夥伴進行深入探討，尋找機會，以確保首先在客房收入方面，我們擁有正確的組合，並將業務推向利潤最高的渠道，並且我們確實在那裡看到了非常好的成功。但是，結合品牌在真正推動直接業務和在需要時策略性地開展 OTA 業務方面的努力，然後在我們不需要的時候在需求較高的夜晚放棄它，我們實際上看到我們的投資組合在從 OTA 業務到 brand.com 貢獻的渠道轉變中增加了 80 個基點。這也有助於我們的佣金，進而有助於提高我們的利潤率。

So those are some of the areas that we're working on. We're always looking for additional opportunities. We are implementing in some of our hotels as part of our renovation some upgrades to, what you would call, our sweet shops, or pantries, or market, and we are finding some success in that and being able to increase the revenues that we're actually being able to generate by having a better product offering and improvement to the margin. So those are few of the things that we're working on.

這些就是我們正在努力的一些領域。我們一直在尋找更多機會。作為翻修工程的一部分，我們正在部分酒店實施升級改造，升級我們的糖果店、食品儲藏室或市場，並且取得了一些成功，透過提供更好的產品和提高利潤率，我們實際上能夠增加收入。這些就是我們正在努力的部分工作。

That's helpful. And then you mentioned some success in the labor management front this quarter. Is that still a result of some of your labor management initiatives that you guys have been doing? Or is there anything else driving that? And do you think you can -- that level of cost containment is sustainable for the rest of the year?

這很有幫助。然後您提到本季在勞工管理方面取得了一些成功。這是否仍然是你們一直在採取的一些勞動力管理措施的結果？或者還有其他因素在推動這現象？您認為這種成本控製水準能夠在今年剩餘時間內持續下去嗎？

So absolutely, it's still a result of our teams, our asset management teams and our operators working incredibly hard to be efficient. So it -- we will see that level off as we move throughout the year, we had indicated that previously because a lot of the upfront savings becomes from the initial implementation. What we're really focused on right now with our operators is better utilization of the system and continued -- we are seeing continued reduction in hours, we are seeing some better -- some reduction in contract labor, and when we see reductions in contract labor, that provides a lot of benefits in terms of efficiency. We are seeing continued reductions in overtime. If you look at the average hourly wages and star -- put this metric out that they actually get from government statistics, leisure and hospitality accommodation average hourly earnings year-end, the increase was 3.2%. As of -- in February, it was 3.8% and in March, the projection was -- for the projected number, a 3.9% increase in average hourly wages. So wages are continuing to increase as the economies continues to do well. But we are very pleased with our operators' ability to mitigate some of those increases with some of those efficiency programs. We're continuing also to work and having really good success in a lot of markets. The Green Choice-type programs are being able to offer our guest choice in their loyalty points or charitable donation or a light touch housekeeping service versus the full housekeeping service. So we're going to continue to work on that initiative as well.

所以絕對的，這仍然是我們的團隊、資產管理團隊和營運商努力提高效率的結果。因此，隨著全年的推進，我們將看到這一水平趨於平穩，我們之前曾指出，因為許多前期節省都來自於最初的實施。我們現在真正關注的是我們的操作員更好地利用系統並持續——我們看到工作時間持續減少，我們看到更好的——合約工減少，當我們看到合約工減少時，這在效率方面帶來很多好處。我們看到加班時間持續減少。如果你看一下平均每小時工資和星級——把這個指標拿出來，實際上是從政府統計數據中得到的，休閒和酒店住宿平均每小時收入年底增長了 3.2%。截至 2 月份，預計平均時薪將增加 3.8%，而 3 月份的預測數字為平均時薪將增加 3.9%。因此，隨著經濟持續向好，薪資也持續上漲。但我們對我們的營運商利用一些效率計劃來緩解部分成長的能力感到非常滿意。我們將繼續努力，並在許多市場取得了良好的成功。綠色選擇類型的計劃可以讓我們的客人選擇忠誠度積分或慈善捐贈或輕度客房清潔服務或全套客房清潔服務。因此我們也將繼續致力於這項措施。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Jeff Donnelly with Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的傑夫唐納利。

I guess, this is a question for you, Krissy, revisiting your comments on the RevPAR index by brand, if I could revisit that. I'm just curious, I mean, there has been a lot of focus, but maybe Marriott's integration has presented a little bit of a headwind for some owners out there in different forms, for some hotels on the group side, others on loyalty. I'm curious if in some way you think that might be creating a little bit of a headwind you've seen on market share growth for some of your Marriott products? And I guess, the follow-up to that is, do you think that's something that could reverse to your benefit in the coming 12 months, what's your sense?

我想，這是給你提的一個問題，Krissy，重新檢視你對各品牌 RevPAR 指數的評論，如果我可以重新檢視一下的話。我只是好奇，我的意思是，人們已經關注了很多，但萬豪的整合可能以不同的形式給一些業主帶來了一點阻力，對於集團方面的一些酒店和其他忠誠度方面的酒店來說。我很好奇，您是否認為這可能會對萬豪部分產品的市佔率成長造成一些阻力？我想，接下來的問題是，您是否認為這會在未來 12 個月內對您有利，您的看法是什麼？

So Jeff, I think that's a great question. And we spend a lot of time with our brands analyzing the data. And I would go with the second part of what you said, obviously when you have an integration of that scale, there is a lot of resources put towards that. And spending time just this week with the Marriott folks was very encouraged, we had great conversations. There is a very much sense of a lot of the heavy lifting that's been done, there's still work to be done, but there is very much a sense of that now is the opportunity to really focus on leveraging the power of the platform and in terms of scale, in terms of all the partnership opportunities, in terms of just early stats that they've been able to give us in terms of starting to be able to see some crossover from the former Starwood guests into our legacy Marriott hotels. There's definitely some green shoots there. And we are going to continue to monitor that, but we are encouraged by some of the early results as we moved into the year and looked forward. We do think that there's an opportunity. The Starwood guests were very, very loyal, especially they're elite. So quite often in markets, they would travel 15 miles, 20 miles to be able to find a Starwood property to get their loyalty points. And now that the -- they have the option of going to a Marriott, we are seeing that in terms of -- at least on the redemption stats, that we are seeing some really good growth in terms of Starwood members coming over to legacy Marriott hotels. So -- and especially with that from a select service side, they're just wasn't as much Starwood product. So I prefer to not dwell too much on the past and I -- we are very encouraged about the opportunity for the future.

傑夫，我認為這是一個很好的問題。我們花費大量時間與我們的品牌一起分析數據。我會同意你所說的第二部分，顯然，當你進行如此規模的整合時，就會投入大量的資源。本週與萬豪員工一起度過的時光非常令人鼓舞，我們進行了非常愉快的交談。我們感覺已經完成了很多繁重的工作，但仍有工作要做，但現在我們感覺有機會真正專注於利用平台的力量，在規模方面，在所有合作機會方面，在他們能夠給我們的早期統計數據方面，開始能夠看到一些前喜達屋客人轉而入住我們傳統的萬豪酒店。那裡肯定已經出現了一些復甦的跡象。我們將繼續監測這一點，但隨著我們進入新的一年並展望未來，我們對一些早期成果感到鼓舞。我們確實認為有機會。喜達屋的客人非常非常忠誠，尤其是菁英人士。因此，在市場上，他們經常會行駛 15 英里、20 英里，以便找到一家喜達屋酒店來獲取忠誠度積分。現在，他們可以選擇入住萬豪酒店，從兌換統計數據來看，我們看到喜達屋會員入住傳統萬豪酒店的數量確實出現了良好的增長。所以——尤其是從精選服務來看，他們並不像喜達屋那樣提供那麼多產品。因此我不想過度沉湎於過去，我們對未來的機會感到非常鼓舞。

It's useful. And maybe one for Justin on the construction side. I guess, the simple way of putting it is, what allows it to continue because when you look at construction costs, they've probably been outstripping, I guess, what I would call, hotel cash flows, if you will, for the last 2 years, at least, and implicitly you would think that the development yields continue to edge lower and financing has got more elusive and more costly to get -- construction starts still remain pretty robust. I guess, if you had put on your hat and looking at development, what are the economics for a developer that allow that construction starts to continue? Or we just sort of seeing the last few projects shake out of the pipeline? Or do you really think we could see a meaningful decline in starts in the industry in the next 2 years or so?

它很有用。也許在建築方面賈斯汀也該得到一份。我想，簡單來說就是，是什麼讓它繼續下去，因為當你看建築成本時，它們可能已經超過了我所說的酒店現金流，如果你願意的話，至少在過去的兩年裡，你會隱含地認為開發收益率繼續下降，融資變得更加難以捉摸和昂貴——但建築開工仍然保持相當強勁。我想，如果你戴上帽子並觀察開發情況，那麼對於開發商來說，允許繼續進行建設的經濟效益是什麼？或者我們只是看到最後幾個項目脫離了正軌？或者您真的認為我們可能會在未來兩年左右看到該行業開工數量大幅下降？

Our expectation, again, assuming consistent economic dynamics is that we do begin to see a slowdown. Interestingly, as we look at the brand pipeline and as we look at the supply number that I highlighted earlier in my remarks, to some extent they're being inflated by longer construction times than lead times for new development, meaning that projects stay in the total pipeline longer than they did earlier in the cycle. And I think in part that's because of the challenges associated with financing. We continue to see, and I think part of the shift this time and it began early in the cycle is that we saw an increased number of select service or rooms-focused development deals in more urban settings where they had less of an existing [pipeline]. Those markets continue to generate sufficiently strong RevPARs or to justify incremental investment. And if you look at where we are able to make development deals pencil, they're generally in those urban or higher density suburban markets. But that said, as we talk to developers, they continue to be challenged. Some of the offset as well though has come from the development by the brands, Marriott and Hilton leading the way of more cost efficient models. So as we look at pipeline within the Hilton brand family, for example, Home2, which is much more efficient box than Homewood is seeing significant new growth. And given that there were fewer of those assets existing, that's obviously a leading brand for Hilton, and then you've Tru, which likewise is one of their less expensive boxes. So I think, 2 things, you're continuing to see new development in urban markets for select service where it didn't exist historically. And then outside of the urban markets and higher RevPAR markets, really what seems to be driving the development numbers right now in terms of new product deliveries are these less expensive brands to develop. Over time, that saturates as well. And absent the brands continuing to move downscale and developing cheaper and cheaper product, assuming current dynamics, our expectation is within the next 12 to 24 months, we'll begin to see the supply picture improve dramatically.

再次，我們的預期是，假設經濟動態保持一致，我們確實會開始看到經濟放緩。有趣的是，當我們查看品牌管道和我之前在發言中強調的供應數量時，我們發現它們在某種程度上被更長的建設時間誇大了，而新開發項目的交付週期則更長，這意味著項目在總體渠道中停留的時間比在周期早期更長。我認為部分原因是融資方面的挑戰。我們繼續看到，我認為這次轉變的部分原因在於它開始於週期的早期，我們看到在更多的城市環境中，精選服務或以房間為重點的開發交易數量有所增加，而這些環境中現有的[管道]較少。這些市場繼續產生足夠強勁的 RevPAR 或證明增量投資是合理的。如果你看看我們能夠達成開發交易的地方，你會發現它們通常在城市或人口密度較高的郊區市場。但話雖如此，當我們與開發人員交談時，他們仍然面臨挑戰。不過，部分抵銷作用也來自於品牌的開發，萬豪和希爾頓引領了更具成本效益的模式。因此，當我們觀察希爾頓品牌家族中的管道時，例如 Home2，它比 Homewood 效率更高，並且正在經歷顯著的新增長。鑑於現有的此類資產較少，這顯然是希爾頓的領先品牌，然後還有 Tru，它同樣是希爾頓較便宜的包廂之一。所以我認為，有兩件事，你會繼續看到城市精選服務市場的新發展，而這種發展在歷史上並不存在。然後，在城市市場和更高 RevPAR 市場之外，就新產品交付而言，目前真正推動發展數據的似乎是這些開發成本較低的品牌。隨著時間的推移，它也會飽和。並且，如果品牌不繼續降低規模並開發越來越便宜的產品，那麼按照目前的動態，我們預計在未來 12 到 24 個月內，我們將開始看到供應狀況大幅改善。

There are no further questions. I would like to turn the floor over to Justin for closing comments.

沒有其他問題了。我想把發言權交給賈斯汀來做最後評論。

Thank you. We'd like to thank everybody who joined us this morning. Overall, we're pleased with the steady performance of our portfolio during the quarter, and remain confident that we're well positioned to maximize shareholder value over the long term. We hope that as you travel, you'll take the opportunity to stay with us at one of our hotels, and look forward to talking to you again soon.

謝謝。我們要感謝今天上午與我們一起的所有人。整體而言，我們對本季投資組合的穩定表現感到滿意，並堅信我們有能力長期實現股東價值最大化。我們希望您在旅行期間能有機會入住我們的酒店，並期待很快再次與您交談。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。