Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc (APAM) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Jason, and I will be your conference operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. At this time, I will turn the call over to Artisan Partners Asset Management.

您好，感謝您的支持。我叫傑森，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。此時，我會將電話轉給 Artisan Partners Asset Management。

Welcome to the Artisan Partners Asset Management business update and earnings call. Before we begin today, I would like to remind you that comments made during today's call, including responses to questions, may include forward-looking statements. These are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the factors set forth in our earnings release and detailed in our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the statements, and we assume no obligation to update or revise any of these statements following the presentation.

歡迎參加 Artisan Partners 資產管理業務更新和財報電話會議。在今天開始之前，我想提醒您，今天電話會議中發表的評論（包括對問題的答案）可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些都受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，包括但不限於我們的收益發布中列出的以及我們向 SEC 文件中詳細說明的因素。這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與聲明中討論的結果有重大差異，我們不承擔在演示後更新或修改任何這些聲明的義務。

During today's call, we will be discussing our Investor Day, which took place on September 27 in New York and online. Materials from the Investor Day and a replay of the presentation are available on our Investor Relations website. The Investor Day presentation also included forward-looking statements that were current as of the time they were made, but have not been updated to reflect any changes in circumstances.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論 9 月 27 日在紐約線上舉行的投資者日活動。投資者日的資料和簡報的重播可在我們的投資者關係網站上取得。投資者日簡報還包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述截至發佈時為最新狀態，但尚未更新以反映情況的任何變化。

In addition, some of our remarks today will include references to non-GAAP financial measures. You can find reconciliations of those measures to the most comparable GAAP measures in the earnings release and the supplemental materials, which could be found on our Investor Relations website. Also, please note that nothing on this call constitutes an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell an interest in any Artisan investment product or a recommendation for any investment service.

此外，我們今天的一些言論將包括提及非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在收益發布和補充資料中找到這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的調整表，這些資料可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。另請注意，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成購買或出售任何 Artisan 投資產品權益的要約或招攬，也不構成對任何投資服務的推薦。

I will now turn it over to Eric Colson, our CEO.

現在我將把它交給我們的執行長 Eric Colson。

Thank you for joining the call or reading the transcript. On September 27, we held our first Investor Day. After more than 10 years as a public company, we wanted to review who we are as an investment firm, describe how we have evolved our business and compounded wealth for clients and highlight the team and platform we have in place for future growth. The title of the Investor Day was The Power of Quality Compounding. We wanted to reinforce the power of compounding, the eighth wonder of the world and reinforce the power and potential of Artisan Partners, a firm designed and operated the compound wealth, careers and outcomes over long periods of time.

感謝您加入通話或閱讀文字記錄。 9 月 27 日，我們舉辦了第一個投資者日。在作為一家上市公司十多年後，我們希望回顧我們作為投資公司的定位，描述我們如何發展業務並為客戶增加財富，並強調我們為未來成長而建立的團隊和平台。投資者日的標題是品質複利的力量。我們希望增強複利這個世界第八大奇蹟的力量，並增強 Artisan Partners 的力量和潛力，Artisan Partners 是一家長期設計和經營複利財富、職業和成果的公司。

As an illustration, a hypothetical portfolio of $1 million invested at inception of each of Artisan's 28 strategies launched to clients would have grown to nearly $117 million net of fees as of September 30, 2023. This amount is nearly $43 million or 58% more than if the same amounts had been invested in the passive benchmarks most often used to assess our strategy's performance. That's a good example of the power of compounding and the long-term performance of Artisan Partners. Another goal of our Investor Day was to introduce more members of our business management team. We have a group of senior leaders who know the investment industry and are aligned with who we are as a high value-added investment firm. This group gives us the breadth and depth to continue our repeatable franchise development process, further expand our investment and business capabilities and keep the compounding process going long into the future. At the Investor Day, Jason Gottlieb, our President, led a detailed discussion of our franchise development process, the positioning and potential of our existing investment strategies and areas where we may expand in the future. Today, Jason is joining C.J. and me, and I have asked him to update you on the status of our credit-oriented business as well as opportunities we see in Emerging Markets.

舉例來說，截至2023 年9 月30 日，Artisan 向客戶推出的28 項策略中，每項策略在開始時投資100 萬美元的假設投資組合在扣除費用後將增至近1.17 億美元。這筆金額比去年同期高出近4,300 萬美元，即58%。如果將相同的金額投資於最常用於評估我們策略績效的被動基準。這是複利力量和 Artisan Partners 長期表現的一個很好的例子。我們投資者日的另一個目標是介紹更多我們的業務管理團隊成員。我們擁有一群了解投資行業並與我們作為高附加價值投資公司的定位一致的高階領導者。該團隊為我們提供了繼續可重複的特許經營開發流程的廣度和深度，進一步擴大我們的投資和業務能力，並使複合流程在未來持續發展。在投資者日上，我們的總裁傑森·戈特利布 (Jason Gottlieb) 詳細討論了我們的特許經營發展流程、我們現有投資策略的定位和潛力以及我們未來可能擴展的領域。今天，Jason 將加入 C.J. 和我的行列，我請他向您介紹我們以信貸為導向的業務的最新狀況以及我們在新興市場看到的機會。

Thank you, Eric. Our expansion into credit is a case study in our repeatable franchise development process. Slide 2 should look familiar. It shows the spaces we are focused on and our methodical build-out in these areas. As we discussed at the Investor Day, we pursue asset classes where we see the overlap of exceptional talent, large investment opportunity sets for differentiation and alpha generation, large addressable markets with long-term allocators and good fit with or strategic expansion of our business model and operating platform. 10 years ago, we did not have any of these capabilities shown on this slide. Today, we have an investment offering in each of these areas except private credit.

謝謝你，埃里克。我們向信貸領域的擴張是我們可重複的特許經營開發過程中的一個案例研究。投影片 2 看起來應該很熟悉。它展示了我們關注的空間以及我們在這些領域的有條不紊的建設。正如我們在投資者日討論的那樣，我們追求的資產類別中，我們看到了傑出人才的重疊、差異化和阿爾法生成的大量投資機會、具有長期分配者的大型潛在市場以及與我們的業務模式良好契合或策略擴張的資產類別。和操作平台。 10 年前，我們沒有這張投影片上顯示的任何這些功能。如今，除私人信貸外，我們在所有這些領域都提供投資服務。

Earlier this week, we completed the first close of the Artisan Dislocation Opportunities fund. The fund is a closed-end drawdown vehicle managed by Bryan Krug and the Credit team. Throughout his career, Bryan has exploited opportunities in dislocated markets. Dislocation Opportunities fund is designed to provide clients with targeted access to this core competency of the team. When I think about the lineup on this slide, what is most notable to me is that we have demonstrated that our philosophy and process works for clients and talent beyond public equities. In short, these strategies have performed. Since inception and after fees, the high-income strategy has delivered 193 basis points of average annual alpha. credit opportunities, 751 basis points; floating rate, 50 basis points; Global Unconstrained, 603 basis points; Emerging Market debt opportunities, 939 basis points; and Emerging Market local opportunities, 255 basis points.

本週早些時候，我們完成了 Artisan Dislocation Opportunities 基金的首次交割。該基金是一種封閉式提款工具，由 Bryan Krug 和信貸團隊管理。在他的整個職業生涯中，布萊恩一直在錯位的市場中挖掘機會。 Dislocation Opportunities基金旨在為客戶提供有針對性的機會來獲得團隊的這項核心能力。當我想到這張投影片上的陣容時，對我來說最值得注意的是，我們已經證明我們的理念和流程不僅適用於公共股票領域的客戶和人才。簡而言之，這些策略已經發揮了作用。自推出以來，扣除費用後，高收入策略已實現 193 個基點的平均年度阿爾法。信貸機會，751個基點；浮動利率，50個基點；全球無約束，603個基點；新興市場債權機會，939個基點；新興市場本地機會，255 個基點。

During the third quarter, we continued to capitalize on this success and grow these businesses. We onboarded a $425 million institutional account in Emerging Market local opportunities. We onboarded a $250 million institutional account in Global Unconstrained, and the high-income strategy had another strong quarter of flows, bringing year-to-date net inflows to over $1 billion for that strategy. Looking ahead at the near term, we are particularly focused on credit opportunities and Global Unconstrained strategies. Both have outstanding track records with differentiated portfolios. We will also continue to round out and further diversify the high-income business and execute on early opportunities for the EMsights Capital Group.

在第三季度，我們繼續利用這項成功並發展這些業務。我們在新興市場本地機會中開設了價值 4.25 億美元的機構帳戶。我們在 Global Unconstrained 中設立了 2.5 億美元的機構帳戶，高收入策略又迎來了強勁的季度流量，使該策略年初至今的淨流入超過 10 億美元。展望近期，我們特別關注信貸機會和全球無約束策略。兩者都擁有差異化投資組合的優秀業績記錄。我們也將繼續完善高收入業務並使其進一步多元化，並抓住 EMsights Capital Group 的早期機會。

While we have made significant progress in expanding our credit capabilities, we are still in the early innings. We have a tremendous opportunity with our 2 existing teams, and there is great potential to leverage our operational platform with additional fixed income talent. As we move forward, we expect to do more in high value-added credit, but we will remain patient for the right opportunities that are consistent with our repeatable process.

儘管我們在擴大信貸能力方面取得了重大進展，但仍處於初期階段。我們現有的 2 個團隊擁有巨大的機會，而且利用我們的營運平台與更多固定收益人才的潛力巨大。隨著我們的前進，我們期望在高附加價值信貸方面做更多的事情，但我們將保持耐心，尋找與我們的可重複流程一致的正確機會。

Turning to Slide 3. With the addition of the EMsights Capital Group, we now offer 5 Emerging Markets investment strategies, 3 refocused on equities and 2 focused on credit. We don't include Global Unconstrained as an EM strategy given its broad mandate to seek return and manage risk across developed and developing markets. It is no secret that Emerging Markets investing has been rough. Over the last decade, the MSCI EM equity index has returned 2.07% annually compared to 7.55% for the ACWI index and 11.91% for the S&P 500. Flows haven't been good either. In 2022, $90 billion flowed out of the EM debt strategies, and $4 billion flowed out of EM equity strategies. 2023 has seen a continuation of these trends in EM debt with EM equities seeing modest inflows.

轉向投影片 3。隨著 EMsights Capital Group 的加入，我們現在提供 5 種新興市場投資策略，其中 3 種重新專注於股票，2 種專注於信貸。鑑於全球不受約束在已開發市場和發展中市場尋求回報和管理風險的廣泛使命，我們不將其納入新興市場策略。新興市場的投資一直很艱難，這已不是什麼秘密。在過去十年中，MSCI 新興市場股票指數的年回報率為 2.07%，而 ACWI 指數的年回報率為 7.55%，標準普爾 500 指數的年回報率為 11.91%。資金流也不佳。 2022 年，900 億美元從新興市場債務策略流出，40 億美元從新興市場股票策略流出。 2023 年，新興市場債務的這些趨勢將持續下去，新興市場股票將出現適度的資金流入。

We take a long-term approach. Emerging Markets accounts for over 40% of global GDP and even greater share of global growth. Emerging Markets offers a large and growing investment opportunity set. There is ample opportunity for differentiation and alpha and clients want and need active risk management. Yes, allocators are dialing down EM allocations right now, especially to China. But long term, we believe that Emerging Markets will be an important source of return and diversification for our sophisticated allocators. While others are retrenching from Emerging Markets, we continue to move forward carefully and with discipline. We have long experience in Emerging Markets. We launched the Artisan Sustainable Emerging Markets strategy in 2006 and Artisan Developing World strategy in 2015. More recently, in addition to launching the EMsights Capital Group, we have built out our China Post venture team with 7 individuals operating out of Hong Kong office. Our Developing World team now has talent in Hong Kong as well, and we recently obtained regulatory approval to execute trades from Hong Kong and placed our first trades from there in October. We have no illusions about the challenges presented by geopolitics and China, in particular. These take judgment and patience to navigate, but we have never tried to time markets or short-term demand. We look for the overlap of talent, opportunity and business fit. When we find it, we move forward, we build, and we remain patient. Over the long term, we continue to believe that Emerging Markets will present opportunities that allocators want and need to access. We have today and will have in the future a compelling lineup of talent and strategies to fit those needs.

我們採取長期策略。新興市場佔全球GDP的40%以上，對全球經濟成長的貢獻更大。新興市場提供了大量且不斷成長的投資機會。有充足的差異化和阿爾法機會，客戶希望並需要積極的風險管理。是的，配置者現在正在減少新興市場的配置，尤其是對中國的配置。但從長遠來看，我們相信新興市場將成為我們成熟的配置者的重要回報和多元化來源。儘管其他公司正在削減新興市場的開支，但我們仍繼續謹慎而有紀律地前進。我們在新興市場擁有長期經驗。我們於2006 年推出了Artisan 永續新興市場策略，並於2015 年推出了Artisan 發展中國家策略。最近，除了成立EMsights Capital Group 之外，我們還組成了由7 名員工在香港辦事處營運的中國郵政創投團隊。我們的發展中國家團隊現在在香港也擁有人才，我們最近獲得了在香港執行交易的監管批准，並於 10 月在香港進行了第一筆交易。我們對地緣政治尤其是中國帶來的挑戰不抱任何幻想。這些需要判斷力和耐心來駕馭，但我們從未嘗試過掌握市場或短期需求的時機。我們尋找人才、機會和業務契合點的重疊部分。當我們找到它時，我們就會前進，我們建設，並保持耐心。從長遠來看，我們仍然相信新興市場將提供分配者想要和需要獲得的機會。我們現在和將來都擁有一系列引人注目的人才和策略來滿足這些需求。

Thank you, Jason. Slide 4 summarizes our growth since 1995. Our growth has been a function of compounding wealth for existing clients, adding new capabilities and assets over time and patience. As we've added investment capabilities and assets, we've invested in the distribution capabilities that support them. At the Investor Day, listeners heard from our Head of Global Distribution, Chris Krein. Our distribution model is a hybrid approach. Traditionally, our investment team specific business leaders have marketed and serviced institutional clients and consultants, while our centralized sales teams have marketed and serviced their own channels or geographies.

謝謝你，傑森。投影片 4 總結了我們自 1995 年以來的成長。我們的成長是為現有客戶增加財富、隨著時間的推移和耐心增加新的能力和資產的結果。隨著我們增加投資能力和資產，我們也投資了支持它們的分銷能力。在投資者日，聽眾聆聽了我們的全球分銷主管 Chris Krein 的發言。我們的分銷模式是一種混合方法。傳統上，我們的投資團隊特定業務領導者對機構客戶和顧問進行行銷和服務，而我們的集中銷售團隊則對自己的通路或地區進行行銷和服務。

We have hired excellent people, provided compelling incentives and sold and serviced across multiple channels and geographies with modest headcount and total spend. Over time, though, the number and complexity of our investment strategies has grown considerably. And historical distribution channels are converging, making distinctions like institutional and intermediary less relevant. But it takes to sell and service as a sophisticated asset allocator is increasingly similar whether it's a pension fund, institutional consultant, broker-dealer research department or family office. We are involving to increase intentionality and focus by improving alignment between our distribution professionals, content and marketing and data. We will continue to have high-caliber talent and compelling incentives, but we are creating more structure and coordination, more clearly delineating sales and service responsibilities. We are clarifying sales priorities, and we're producing more investment content and better coordinating that content with sales and service efforts. And we are collecting, generating and using more data to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of our sales and service groups.

我們聘請了優秀的人才，提供了令人信服的激勵措施，並以適度的員工人數和總支出跨多個管道和地區進行銷售和服務。然而，隨著時間的推移，我們的投資策略的數量和複雜性顯著增加。而歷史上的分銷管道正在趨同，使得機構和中介等區別不再那麼重要。但無論是退休基金、機構顧問、經紀自營商研究部門或家族辦公室，複雜的資產配置機構都越來越相似，因此銷售和服務變得越來越相似。我們致力於透過改善分銷專業人員、內容、行銷和數據之間的一致性來提高意向性和焦點。我們將繼續擁有高素質人才和引人注目的激勵措施，但我們正在創造更多的結構和協調，更明確地劃分銷售和服務職責。我們正在明確銷售優先事項，我們正在製作更多的投資內容，並更好地協調這些內容與銷售和服務工作。我們正在收集、產生和使用更多數據，以提高銷售和服務團隊的有效性和效率。

Let me give you 2 examples to illustrate this evolution. First, we recently hired our first individual to focus exclusively on marketing our alternative strategies. His near-term focus is on marketing the credit opportunity strategy as well as related co-investment style opportunities that are a derivative of what the Credit team does such as dislocation opportunities. Second, we are identifying specific strategies where we have compelling near and medium-term opportunities and aligning people, resources, content and data to increase our focus and improve our feedback loops. These more structured marketing efforts increased the probability of near and medium-term success and serve as a model for the future.

讓我舉兩個例子來說明這個演變。首先，我們最近聘請了第一個人專門專注於行銷我們的替代策略。他近期的重點是行銷信貸機會策略以及相關的聯合投資風格機會，這些機會是信貸團隊所做工作的衍生性商品，例如錯位機會。其次，我們正在確定具有引人注目的近期和中期機會的具體策略，並調整人員、資源、內容和數據，以增加我們的重點並改善我們的回饋循環。這些更結構化的行銷工作增加了近期和中期成功的可能性，並成為未來的典範。

All of this evolution is consistent with who we are and how we have historically evolved. We have always sought to align people, resources, incentives and opportunities. At the Investor Day, we also described why we are confident, we will continue to compound wealth for clients, scale our newer strategies, add additional capabilities and continue to generate high-quality outcomes for our clients, employees and shareholders. We have expanded across more investment teams, asset classes and geographies. We have a repeatable process for identifying, recruiting, onboarding and partnering with investment talent. Our operational platform has more capabilities than ever. We are evolving our distribution model, and we have in place a business management team with deep industry and Artisan-specific experience that is extremely well positioned to move us forward.

所有這些演變都與我們是誰以及我們歷史上的演變方式是一致的。我們始終尋求整合人員、資源、激勵措施和機會。在投資者日，我們也描述了為什麼我們有信心，我們將繼續為客戶增加財富，擴展我們的新策略，增加額外的能力，並繼續為我們的客戶、員工和股東創造高品質的成果。我們已經擴展到更多的投資團隊、資產類別和地區。我們有一個可重複的流程來識別、招募、入職和與投資人才合作。我們的營運平台擁有比以往更多的功能。我們正在發展我們的分銷模式，我們擁有一支具有深厚行業和工匠特定經驗的業務管理團隊，非常有能力推動我們前進。

I will now turn it over to C.J. to discuss our recent financial results.

現在我將把它交給 C.J. 來討論我們最近的財務表現。

Thanks, Eric. The decline in equity markets during the quarter drove our assets under management down to $136.5 billion as of September 30. That's a 5% decrease from the June 30 AUM and 7% higher than our AUM at the start of 2023. Declines in global market indices contributed meaningfully to the decline in our AUM. Net client outflows primarily in global equity mandates also contributed to the AUM declines. Average AUM was $142.2 billion for the quarter, up 2% compared to last quarter and up 7% compared to the prior year September quarter. Year-to-date average AUM was $139 billion, down 5% from last year.

謝謝，埃里克。截至 9 月 30 日，本季股市下跌導致我們管理的資產降至 1,365 億美元。這比 6 月 30 日的 AUM 下降了 5%，比 2023 年初的 AUM 高出 7%。全球市場指數下降對我們的資產管理規模下降做出了重大貢獻。主要是全球股票委託的客戶淨流出也導致了資產管理規模的下降。本季平均資產管理規模為 1,422 億美元，較上一季成長 2%，比去年 9 月季度成長 7%。年初至今平均資產管理規模為 1,390 億美元，比去年下降 5%。

Our complete GAAP and adjusted results are presented in our earnings release. Revenues in the quarter increased 2% compared to last quarter on higher average AUM. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, revenues were up 6% on higher average AUM. Performance fee revenue has been insignificant since 2021. We are on track to earn some performance fees in the fourth quarter although the amount remains relatively small as only 3% of our AUM have performance fee billing arrangements.

我們完整的公認會計準則和調整後的業績已在我們的收益報告中公佈。由於平均 AUM 較高，本季營收較上季成長 2%。與 2022 年第三季相比，營收成長了 6%，平均 AUM 更高。自 2021 年以來，績效費收入一直微不足道。我們預計在第四季度賺取一些績效費，儘管金額仍然相對較小，因為我們的 AUM 中只有 3% 有績效費計費安排。

Adjusted operating expenses for the quarter increased 1% sequentially due to an increase in incentive compensation expenses in line with higher revenues. Adjusted operating income increased 4% in comparison to the previous quarter and increased 5% compared to last year's third quarter. On a year-to-date basis, revenues were down 5% compared to 2022 on lower average AUM. Adjusted operating expenses were generally flat compared to the 2022 9-month period. The decrease in incentive compensation expenses on lower revenues was offset by an increase in fixed compensation costs related to annual merit increases and a 6% increase in our number of employees compared to September 2022. Our headcount increases continue to be in line with our strategic growth plans and were primarily targeted to investment, distribution and marketing teams to support our growth initiatives.

由於激勵補償費用隨收入增加而增加，本季調整後營運費用較上季增加 1%。調整後營業收入較上一季成長 4%，較去年第三季成長 5%。年初至今，由於平均資產管理規模較低，營收較 2022 年下降了 5%。與 2022 年 9 個月期間相比，調整後營運費用整體持平。收入下降導致的激勵薪酬費用減少被與年度績效成長相關的固定薪酬成本增加以及與 2022 年 9 月相比我們的員工人數增加 6% 所抵消。我們的員工人數成長繼續與我們的策略成長保持一致計劃，主要針對投資、分銷和行銷團隊，以支持我們的成長計劃。

Travel expenses remain around 35% higher than last year, driven by increased travel related to our global investment strategies and client activity and firm events such as the Investor Day we held in late September. As a result of lower revenues, year-to-date adjusted operating income and adjusted net income per adjusted share were both down 15% compared to the 2022 year-to-date period. Full year expense projections remain consistent with the guidance I provided on the February earnings call.

差旅費用仍然比去年高出 35% 左右，這是由於與我們的全球投資策略、客戶活動以及我們 9 月底舉辦的投資者日等公司活動相關的差旅增加。由於收入下降，年初至今調整後營業收入和調整後每股淨利潤均較 2022 年同期下降 15%。全年支出預測與我在二月份財報電話會議上提供的指導保持一致。

Turning to Slide 10. Our balance sheet continues to support our operations and seed capital needs and provides a healthy cash dividend. We currently have approximately $140 million of seed capital invested in sponsored investment products with significant amounts of realizable capacity. The ability to support all of these objectives is only possible because of the strong cash flows generated by our business. In addition, the $100 million revolving credit facility remains unused. Given the rise in interest rates, our excess working capital cash contributed an additional $3.5 million of interest income in 2023 compared to the 2022 year-to-date period. Consistent with our dividend policy, our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share with respect to the September 2023 quarter, which represents approximately 80% of the cash generated in the quarter and an 8% annual dividend yield based on our recent stock price before factoring in the special annual dividend, we intend to declare in January. Our Board will consider the declaration of an annual special dividend at our January 2024 Board meeting. We expect we will retain some cash from the special dividend as we have in the past several years to support our growth initiatives.

轉向幻燈片 10。我們的資產負債表繼續支持我們的營運和種子資本需求，並提供健康的現金股利。目前，我們擁有約 1.4 億美元的種子資本，投資於具有大量可變現能力的贊助投資產品。只有我們的業務產生強勁的現金流，才有可能支持所有這些目標。此外，1億美元的循環信用額度仍未使用。鑑於利率上升，與 2022 年迄今相比，我們的超額營運資金現金在 2023 年額外貢獻了 350 萬美元的利息收入。根據我們的股息政策，我們的董事會宣布 2023 年 9 月季度的季度股息為每股 0.65 美元，約佔該季度產生的現金的 80%，根據我們最近的股票，年度股息收益率為 8%考慮到特別年度股息之前的價格，我們打算在一月宣布。我們的董事會將在 2024 年 1 月的董事會會議上考慮宣布年度特別股利。我們預計我們將從特別股息中保留一些現金，就像過去幾年一樣，以支持我們的成長計劃。

In the fourth quarter, we expect the Artisan funds to complete their annual income and capital gains distributions. Based on our current estimates and assumptions, we expect fourth quarter distributions to result in approximately $400 million of net client cash outflows from investors who choose not to reinvest their distribution. As highlighted in our recent Investor Day, growth is not linear and takes time in patience, and we continue to demonstrate the patience and discipline to grow our business over time to produce durable and high-quality results.

在第四季度，我們預計 Artisan 基金將完成年度收入和資本利得分配。根據我們目前的估計和假設，我們預計第四季度的分配將導致選擇不對其分配進行再投資的投資者產生約 4 億美元的淨客戶現金流出。正如我們最近的投資者日所強調的那樣，成長不是線性的，需要耐心的時間，我們將繼續表現出耐心和紀律，隨著時間的推移發展我們的業務，以產生持久和高品質的結果。

Slide 12 illustrates the results of our business model and philosophy. We have delivered quality outcomes for our shareholders since our IPO 10 years ago. We are confident that our commitment to investing in our business will drive future growth, and we remain focused on returning capital to shareholders to generate quality outcomes over long time periods.

投影片 12 說明了我們的商業模式和理念的結果。自 10 年前首次公開募股以來，我們為股東創造了優質成果。我們相信，我們對業務投資的承諾將推動未來的成長，並且我們將繼續專注於向股東返還資本，以長期產生高品質的成果。

With that, I will turn the call back to the operator.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給接線生。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from John Dunn from Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Dunn。

Could you maybe spend a little time just kind of framing for us the puts and takes of the institutional side of the business right at this moment? And then maybe just a flavor of like the kind of consultant and institutional mindset and how conversations are going right now?

您能否花一點時間為我們框架此時機構業務方面的看跌期權和賣出期權？然後也許只是顧問和機構思維方式以及現在對話進行得如何？

Yes, sure, John. It's Eric. The -- just back and away even above the institutional marketplace, we've come off of a pretty big drawdown in '22 and then a lot of uncertainty here in '23. So we've seen, in general, muted flows compared to '20 and '21. So the bigger flows that are happening in the institutional side are sticking out a little bit more. Primarily, they've been non-U.S. clients in our larger global equity strategies that have been rebalancing or derisking or acknowledging that there's been regulatory change, which has occurred more in Australia. So you've seen more activity there. And as we look at the put and the take, the flip side is looking forward, and there's quite a bit of cash buildup that we've seen in money market funds. We're starting to see more people look at their targeted asset allocation and where to put that to work. So one of the areas we're looking at on a go forward is people rebalancing back to Emerging Markets and rebalancing into areas of interest, which is fixed income and alternatives. And more recently, you've seen a pickup in the dispersion of -- in individual securities within indexes showing an interest leaning towards active management. So I think the muted year so far with an expectation of money getting put to work next year back to targeted asset allocation.

是的，當然，約翰。是埃里克。 - 就在機構市場之上，我們已經擺脫了 22 年相當大的虧損，然後在 23 年出現了很多不確定性。因此，與 20 世紀和 21 世紀相比，我們總體上看到了流量的減弱。因此，機構方面發生的更大規模的資金流動更加突出。主要是，他們是我們更大的全球股票策略中的非美國客戶，這些策略一直在進行再平衡或降低風險，或承認監管發生了變化，這種情況在澳洲發生得更多。所以你已經看到那裡有更多的活動。當我們觀察看跌選擇權和賣出選擇權時，另一面是展望未來，我們在貨幣市場基金中看到了相當多的現金累積。我們開始看到越來越多的人專注於他們的目標資產配置以及將其運用到哪裡。因此，我們未來關注的領域之一是人們重新平衡回到新興市場，並重新平衡到感興趣的領域，即固定收益和另類投資。最近，您看到指數內個別證券的分散性增加，顯示出對主動管理的興趣。因此，我認為今年迄今表現平淡，預計明年資金將重新投入目標資產配置。

Got you. And then maybe just on the 3 new mandates that you got recently. Maybe just because it seems like they came together pretty quickly, like could you give us a flavor of how those came to be? And then also, is there more -- might we expect some more activity in those 3 areas in the medium term?

明白你了。然後也許只是您最近收到的 3 項新任務。也許只是因為他們似乎很快就走到了一起，你能給我們介紹一下它們是如何形成的嗎？然後，我們是否可以預期在中期內這三個領域會有更多活動？

Yes, certainly. We -- as everybody is aware, we brought on the EMsights Capital Group and focused on the EM debt as well as the Global Unconstrained, the type of investments in Emerging Market debt either requires a larger scale separate account or a pooled vehicle. The earlier investments have been in the larger separately mandated. We have a good interest in the institutional marketplace around these mandates. And we're starting to build a nice track record in the pooled vehicles and expect that we would have a forward lean in smaller allocations into the pooled vehicle is our expectation there. So we think it's -- the EMsights' team is going as expected. We spent the early months building out the foundation, bringing in the team and allowing the team to put the proper foundation to build a strong track record. The track record is looking as we expected, which was a high value-added Emerging Market debt and Global Unconstrained strategies. And now we're out in the marketplace seeking early investors, which we found in the separate accounts and now continuing to sell with the pooled vehicles.

是的，當然了。眾所周知，我們引入了 EMsights Capital Group，專注於新興市場債務以及全球不受約束的新興市場債務投資類型，要么需要更大規模的獨立帳戶，要么需要集合工具。早期的投資是單獨授權的較大投資。我們對圍繞這些任務的機構市場非常感興趣。我們開始在聯合車輛方面建立良好的記錄，並期望我們能夠向前傾斜對聯合車輛的較小分配，這是我們的期望。所以我們認為 EMsights 團隊正在按預期進行。我們在最初的幾個月裡打下了基礎，引入了團隊，並讓團隊打下了適當的基礎，以建立良好的業績記錄。往績記錄看起來正如我們預期的那樣，這是高附加價值的新興市場債務和全球不受約束的策略。現在我們在市場上尋找早期投資者，我們在單獨的帳戶中找到了這些投資者，現在繼續與集合工具一起出售。

Our next question comes from Alex Blostein from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

I was hoping we could build on the discussion around Emerging Markets, both in equities and debt. And the point you made around allocated is pulling back from Emerging Markets in the last year or so is, I guess, perhaps not too surprising. But when you talk to consultants and institutional allocators and distribution platforms, what do you see as the catalyst to perhaps reignite some of the interest in the asset class? And how are you positioning Artisan to ultimately capitalize if that trend reverses?

我希望我們能夠圍繞新興市場（股票和債務）進行討論。我想，你在去年左右從新興市場撤資的分配觀點也許並不令人意外。但是，當您與顧問、機構配置者和分銷平台交談時，您認為什麼是可能重新激發人們對該資產類別的興趣的催化劑？如果這種趨勢逆轉，您將如何定位 Artisan 以最終獲利？

Alex, it's Eric. What really interests us in this discussion is that change is going to occur here. Either people are going to pull back from Emerging Markets and reduce their allocation. They're -- or they're going to look at their target allocation and have to re-up to that target and put money to work. So there -- in our mind, there's going to be money in motion. And when there's money in motion, it gives us an incredible opportunity given the array of strategies we have. So we're not sure if there's going to be an uptick or a downtick. But we definitely know people are going to have to rethink about their Emerging Market allocation, look at how they're structuring it, using equity debt active, passive. And the marketplace is going through that right now, and it's a great time for us to get out and showcase the breadth of Emerging Market strategies we've built inside the firm. And on top of that, if they do reduce Emerging Markets, they're going to go to higher value-added international or global strategies that have a higher allocation to Emerging Markets to pick up that exposure, which you wouldn't see in a passive strategy. So again, it actually benefits, active international or global equity mandates, which we are very well positioned for. So we're just excited about that the topic is coming to market, and we're starting to see that topic come out with institutional clients and consultants.

亞歷克斯，這是埃里克。我們在這次討論中真正感興趣的是這裡將會發生變化。要么人們從新興市場撤資並減少配置。他們正在——或者他們將考慮他們的目標分配，並且必須重新達到該目標並投入資金。因此，在我們看來，將會有資金在流動。當資金流動時，考慮到我們擁有的一系列策略，它會給我們帶來難以置信的機會。因此，我們不確定是否會上漲或下跌。但我們肯定知道人們將不得不重新考慮他們的新興市場配置，看看他們如何建立它，使用主動或被動的股本債務。市場現在正在經歷這種情況，現在是我們走出去並展示我們在公司內部建立的新興市場策略廣度的好時機。最重要的是，如果他們確實減少了新興市場，他們將採取更高附加價值的國際或全球策略，這些策略對新興市場有更高的配置，以承擔這種風險，這是你在傳統市場中看不到的。被動策略。再說一次，它實際上有利於活躍的國際或全球股票指令，而我們對此做好了充分的準備。因此，我們對這個主題即將進入市場感到興奮，我們開始看到主題與機構客戶和顧問一起出現。

Interesting. C.J., a question for you maybe just around margins and expenses. A bit of a 2-parter. But I guess, one, I know it's -- you guys are probably going through the budgeting processes. But any early thoughts on 2024 expense outlook, particularly around the nonvariable portion of the expense base? But also bigger picture at the Investor Day, and I think in the slides today, you sort of alluded to the idea that over time, the margin of the business was much higher than what you guys have currently kind of in the mid-30s versus low 30s right now. In the last decade, we've all been operating in a much more favorable market backdrop with probably higher market beta maybe than what's on the come. But how do you think about ability to get back to that mid-30s percent margin if market tailwinds are less sort of robust than what we've seen in the past?

有趣的。 C.J.，你的問題可能只是關於利潤和費用。有點2人制。但我想，第一，我知道——你們可能正在經歷預算流程。但對 2024 年支出前景有什麼早期想法，特別是圍繞支出基礎的不變部分？但在投資者日也有更大的前景，我認為在今天的幻燈片中，您提到了這樣一個想法，即隨著時間的推移，業務的利潤率比你們目前在30 年代中期的利潤率要高得多現在還不到30歲。在過去的十年中，我們都在一個更有利的市場背景下運營，市場貝塔係數可能比未來更高。但是，如果市場順風不如我們過去看到的那麼強勁，您如何看待恢復 30% 左右利潤率的能力？

Yes. Sure, Alex. So first off, we've invested pretty heavily in sort of our new capabilities over the last couple of years. So I think we've seen a good amount of expense investment, which has obviously impacted our margin. And we shouldn't underscore the effects of inflation as well and just the increase of cost of doing business where employee costs are higher as a result of inflation. Many of our vendors, including mostly data, technology vendors are increasing prices to offset those inflationary pressures they have. Our fee rates remain stable. And so the offset then is margin. We do -- we are early in a budgeting process. I would expect us to continue to invest in distribution and marketing. I think a fair amount of the lift has been done, but there will be some more, and I can give you better clarity in January. But I would assume normal inflationary plus 1% or 2 expectations for cost increases next year. And then getting back to the margin, we're built to handle a much larger amount of AUM, and we have the capacity and the products to do it. The performance is there. And now it's just about giving ourselves the time and being patient to capture that growth opportunity. And if we do, our margins will respond accordingly.

是的。當然，亞歷克斯。首先，我們在過去幾年中對新功能進行了大量投資。因此，我認為我們已經看到了大量的費用投資，這顯然影響了我們的利潤率。我們不應該強調通貨膨脹的影響，也不應該強調通貨膨脹導致員工成本更高的業務成本的增加。我們的許多供應商，包括主要的數據、技術供應商，都在提高價格，以抵消他們所面臨的通膨壓力。我們的費率保持穩定。所以偏移量就是邊距。我們確實如此——我們正處於預算流程的早期階段。我希望我們繼續投資於分銷和行銷。我認為已經完成了相當多的提升，但還會有更多，我可以在一月份為您提供更清晰的資訊。但我會假設正常通膨加上明年成本增加 1% 或 2% 的預期。然後回到利潤率，我們的目的是處理更大量的資產管理規模，並且我們有能力和產品來做到這一點。表演就在那裡。現在我們需要的是給自己時間並耐心地抓住這個成長機會。如果我們這樣做，我們的利潤率將會做出相應的反應。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from Michael Brown from KBW.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Michael Brown。

Okay. Great. So I was just looking at Slide 2, and I guess the private credit bubble that's up at the top right there. Just it stands out. It's obviously a very hot asset class today in asset management land. So I just wanted to expand on maybe where you can lean in more? It sounds like you are certainly leaning in with Bryan Krug and the Credit team. And I wanted to hear a little bit more about what that opportunity looks like and how that could grow? And maybe if you could size it a little bit for me? And then is there any desire to be larger there? Would you consider bringing on a team to have a more true bigger capability in the private credit space and what kind of goes into that decision today given it is, of course, a pretty hot asset class?

好的。偉大的。所以我只是看第二張投影片，我猜私人信貸泡沫就在上面。只是它脫穎而出。這顯然是當今資產管理領域中非常熱門的資產類別。所以我只是想擴展一下您可以在哪些方面獲得更多幫助？聽起來您肯定會支持 Bryan Krug 和信貸團隊。我想更多地了解這個機會是什麼樣子以及它如何發展？也許你能為我調整一下尺寸？那麼是否有想要變得更大的願望呢？您是否會考慮組建一個團隊，在私人信貸領域擁有更強大的能力？考慮到它當然是一個非常熱門的資產類別，今天會做出什麼樣的決定？

Yes, certainly. It's Eric. The private credit space is built up substantially over the last few years. In our minds, it's clearly solidified a space and long-term asset allocation. So it then becomes an area of interest for us. And so with that category, we'll keep an eye on it and patiently wait for an opportunity to think about our existing teams or new teams to provide strategies and opportunities to invest. With regards to chasing a hot asset class and space, we have certainly not been well positioned to chase hot asset classes. Typically, it's very hard to find talent during this peak excitement, and you have to have a strong almost retail distribution to tap that in a very short-term period. So with regards to something happened in the near term around private credit. It would happen in our existing team as one-off investments in the high degree of freedom oriented strategies where we would see opportunities come. And we've been broadening out with Bryan Krug that you mentioned. And we have a fairly broad and robust credit platform. The credit opportunities and now the dislocation fund, both of those are really taking advantage of the smaller public credit markets that, I guess, have been somewhat forgotten and ignored in capturing an illiquid premium in that, which we think is an incredible opportunity. We also are expanding out with the EMsights and the Global Unconstrained, which is a macro aware go-anywhere strategy that is long short in design. So those are the areas that we're leaning into the alternative credit. I think we just list the private credit to keep an eye over the long term and which is no different than how we looked at Emerging Markets over the last 10 years. And it took us quite a while to find the right team, and we brought the EMsights site team in. So that's our thought on the upper end of the credit spectrum.

是的，當然了。是埃里克。過去幾年，私人信貸空間大幅增加。在我們看來，這顯然是鞏固了一個空間和長期的資產配置。所以它就成為我們感興趣的領域。因此，對於這個類別，我們將密切關注並耐心等待機會，考慮我們現有的團隊或新團隊，以提供投資策略和機會。在追逐熱門資產類別和空間方面，我們當然還沒有做好追逐熱門資產類別的準備。通常情況下，在這個興奮的高峰期很難找到人才，你必須擁有強大的幾乎零售的分銷管道才能在很短的時間內利用它。因此，關於近期圍繞私人信貸發生的事情。這將發生在我們現有的團隊中，作為高度自由導向策略的一次性投資，我們將看到機會到來。我們一直在與你提到的 Bryan Krug 一起拓展業務。我們擁有相當廣泛且強大的信貸平台。信貸機會和現在的錯位基金，這兩者都真正利用了較小的公共信貸市場，我想，在獲取非流動性溢價時，這些市場在某種程度上被遺忘和忽視了，我們認為這是一個令人難以置信的機會。我們也正在透過 EMsights 和 Global Unconstrained 進行擴展，這是一種具有宏觀意識的無處不在的策略，但在設計上卻存在長短。這些就是我們傾向於替代信貸的領域。我認為我們只是列出私人信貸來長期關注，這與我們過去十年對新興市場的看法沒有什麼不同。我們花了很長時間才找到合適的團隊，然後我們引入了 EMsights 網站團隊。這就是我們對信用範圍高端的想法。

Okay. Great. You've been making some shifts in your distribution capability and making investments there. You referenced the recent hire dedicated to the [alt] space. I guess what's next in terms of investing in that distribution channel, where would you be kind of focused either by channel, region or asset class?

好的。偉大的。您一直在對分銷能力進行一些轉變並進行投資。您提到了最近專門負責 [alt] 領域的招募。我想在投資該分銷管道方面下一步會做什麼，您會根據通路、地區或資產類別關注哪些方面？

Yes. The -- I think the important thing is we believe we have a very strong distribution team that's focused on who we are. And the highlights are less about increasing expenses to get more scale and broaden out and more about prioritizing and aligning resources to who we are today. And given the number of strategies and the complexity of those strategies, it's very hard for channels or geographies to sell and service. So most of the change we're talking about is how we're managing the business to align to who we are today. So there's a shift going on to get that focus and create more accountability into our sales effort and our service effort. And that's the big change that we're talking about.

是的。我認為重要的是我們相信我們擁有一支非常強大的發行團隊，專注於我們是誰。重點不是增加開支以擴大規模和擴大業務，而是更多地根據我們今天的情況確定資源的優先順序和調整資源。考慮到策略的數量和這些策略的複雜性，通路或地區很難進行銷售和服務。因此，我們談論的大部分變革是我們如何管理業務以適應我們今天的情況。因此，我們正在發生轉變，以集中註意力並為我們的銷售工作和服務工作創造更多的責任。這就是我們正在談論的重大變化。

There are no more questions in the queue. This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

隊列中沒有更多問題。我們的問答環節到此結束，會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。