使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the ANSYS Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. With us today are Ajei Gopal, President and Chief Executive Officer; Nicole Anasenes, Chief Financial Officer; and Kelsey DeBriyn, Vice President, Investor Relations. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this event is being recorded.
女士們、先生們,感謝大家的支持,並歡迎參加 ANSYS 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Ajei Gopal; Nicole Anasenes,財務長;凱爾西‧德布萊恩 (Kelsey DeBriyn),投資人關係副總裁。 (操作員說明)。請注意,此事件正在被記錄。
At this time, I would like now to turn the conference over to Ms. DeBriyn for opening remarks. Please go ahead.
現在,我想請德布萊恩女士致開幕詞。請繼續。
Kelsey DeBriyn - VP of IR
Kelsey DeBriyn - VP of IR
Good morning, everyone. Our earnings release, the related prepared remarks document and the link to our third quarter 2023 Form 10-Q have all been posted on the homepage of our Investor Relations website. They contain the key financial information and supporting data relative to our third quarter financial results and business update as well as our Q4 and fiscal year 2023 outlook and the key underlying quantitative and qualitative assumptions.
大家,早安。我們的收益發布、相關準備好的備註文件以及 2023 年第三季 10-Q 表格的連結均已發佈在我們投資者關係網站的主頁上。它們包含與我們第三季財務業績和業務更新相關的關鍵財務資訊和支援數據,以及我們第四季度和 2023 財年的展望以及關鍵的基本定量和定性假設。
Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Important factors that may affect our future results are discussed in our public filings. Forward-looking statements are based upon our view of the business as of today, and ANSYS undertakes no obligation to update any such information.
今天的演示包含前瞻性資訊。我們的公開文件中討論了可能影響我們未來業績的重要因素。前瞻性陳述基於我們對當前業務的看法,ANSYS 不承擔更新任何此類資訊的義務。
During this call, we will be referring to non-GAAP financial measures unless otherwise stated. A discussion of the various items that are excluded and the reconciliations of GAAP to the comparable non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release materials.
在本次電話會議中,除非另有說明,我們將指的是非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益發布資料中包含了排除在外的各種項目的討論以及 GAAP 與可比較的非 GAAP 財務指標的調整。
I would now like to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Ajei Gopal, for his opening remarks. Ajei?
現在我想將電話轉交給我們的總裁兼執行長 Ajei Gopal,他將致開幕詞。阿傑?
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. In Q3, ANSYS was on track to deliver against our third quarter guidance commitments when we were notified by the U.S. Department of Commerce of additional restrictions on sales to certain Chinese entities as well as incremental approval processes and export restrictions on the sale of some ANSYS products and services to entities located in China.
大家早安,感謝您今天加入我們。在第三季度,當我們收到美國商務部關於對某些中國實體的銷售的額外限制以及對某些ANSYS 產品銷售的增量審批流程和出口限制的通知時,ANSYS 預計將兌現我們的第三季度指導承諾以及為位於中國的實體提供的服務。
These incremental approval processes take the form of additional vetting of prospects located in China. They introduced delays in transacting certain orders for prospects in China, resulting in the potential loss or deferral of some business that was scheduled to be closed in Q3.
這些增量審批流程採取對中國潛在客戶進行額外審查的形式。他們延遲了中國潛在客戶的某些訂單交易,導致原定於第三季關閉的一些業務可能損失或推遲。
As a result, we came in below our expectations in both ACV and revenue for the quarter. Despite these developments, ANSYS delivered a strong quarter marked by double-digit growth in ACV. These updated export restrictions and incremental processes will mute ANSYS' growth in China in 2023 and 2024, after which we expect our business in China to return to steady-state growth. Nicole will give the specifics in a few minutes.
因此,本季的 ACV 和營收都低於我們的預期。儘管取得了這些進展,ANSYS 仍實現了強勁的季度業績,ACV 實現了兩位數的成長。這些更新的出口限制和增量流程將抑制 ANSYS 在 2023 年和 2024 年在中國的成長,之後我們預計在中國的業務將恢復穩定成長。妮可將在幾分鐘內給出具體細節。
It is important to remember that China represents only a small portion of our overall business. Given the strength of our business worldwide, I am confident in our ability to execute on our short- and long-term objectives. Looking back on Q3, high-tech and semiconductor, aerospace and defense and automotive and ground transportation were our top contributing industries. We saw strength in Q3 for ACV across all customer types, and our geographical performance was as expected with the exception of China, as I already mentioned. Our largest contract in the quarter with a 3-year 8-figure agreement with a North American aerospace and defense company that has used our solutions for years.
重要的是要記住,中國祇占我們整體業務的一小部分。鑑於我們在全球的業務實力,我對我們執行短期和長期目標的能力充滿信心。回顧第三季度,高科技和半導體、航空航天和國防以及汽車和地面交通是我們貢獻最大的產業。我們在第三季看到了 ACV 在所有客戶類型中的強勁表現,正如我已經提到的,除中國以外,我們的地理表現符合預期。我們本季最大的合約是與一家北美航空航太和國防公司簽訂了為期 3 年的 8 位數協議,該公司多年來一直使用我們的解決方案。
The new agreement with this customer increases the number of users of ANSYS technology. Thanks in part to ANSYS technology, the customer has secured a key contract to the U.S. government. On our calls, I typically highlight a specific aspect of our business. I have discussed the critical role that ANSYS Solutions play in sustainability initiatives as well as in the development of next-generation semiconductors and how ANSYS simulation is driving fundamental changes in the commercial aerospace industry.
與該客戶的新協議增加了 ANSYS 技術的用戶數量。部分得益於 ANSYS 技術,該客戶已獲得美國政府的重要合約。在我們的電話中,我通常會強調我們業務的一個特定方面。我討論了 ANSYS 解決方案在永續發展計畫以及下一代半導體開發中發揮的關鍵作用,以及 ANSYS 模擬如何推動商業航空航太業的根本性變革。
A similar simulation power transformation is taking place in the automotive industry, which is where I'd like to focus today's discussion. As you are aware, automotive and ground transportation is our third largest industry, and ANSYS is already working with over 50 of the top transportation OEMs around the world and 93 of the top 100 global automotive suppliers. Yet with all the innovation taking place within the sector, there is still significant room for ANSYS to grow through more users, more products and more computations. ANSYS simulation is helping to usher in a new era of mobility through 3 key areas: electrification, autonomy and driver systems and software-defined vehicles. And of course, we are also driving continued innovation in vehicle development.
汽車產業正在發生類似的模擬電源轉型,這也是我今天討論的重點。如您所知,汽車和地面交通是我們的第三大產業,ANSYS 已與全球 50 多家頂級交通 OEM 廠商以及全球 100 強汽車供應商中的 93 家合作。然而,隨著該行業內發生的所有創新,ANSYS 仍有巨大的發展空間,可以透過更多用戶、更多產品和更多計算來實現成長。 ANSYS 模擬正在透過 3 個關鍵領域幫助開創移動出行的新時代:電氣化、自動駕駛、駕駛系統以及軟體定義車輛。當然,我們也在推動車輛開發的持續創新。
I'll walk through each with some pertinent examples. The first area of profound change in the industry is around electrification. From battery management systems to fuel cells to integrated electrified powertrain systems. ANSYS solutions are enabling rapid electric vehicle innovation from the components to the system levels.
我將透過一些相關範例來詳細介紹每個內容。該行業第一個發生深刻變化的領域是電氣化。從電池管理系統到燃料電池再到整合電氣化動力總成系統。 ANSYS 解決方案正在實現從組件到系統層級的快速電動車創新。
For example, our multiphysics battery simulation solutions provide interdisciplinary expertise at different scales. ANSYS' solutions for powertrain electrification provide a complete development flow from the system level to the software level, including system simulation, modern-based development and functional safety analysis.
例如,我們的多物理場電池模擬解決方案提供不同規模的跨學科專業知識。 ANSYS 動力總成電氣化解決方案提供了從系統級到軟體級的完整開發流程,包括系統模擬、基於現代的開發和功能安全分析。
Using ANSYS, customers have reduced battery project costs by up to 30% and design cycle times by up to 50%. Porsche Motor Sports turns to ANSYS simulation to speed up development time for its electric racecar. With ANSYS, the engineers from the TAG Heuer Porsche Formula E team optimize their cars inverter and e-motor efficiency and then test it on a virtual racetrack.
使用 ANSYS,客戶將電池專案成本降低了高達 30%,設計週期時間縮短了高達 50%。 Porsche Motor Sports 採用 ANSYS 模擬來加快其電動賽車的開發速度。泰格豪雅保時捷電動方程式團隊的工程師利用 ANSYS 優化了汽車逆變器和電動馬達效率,然後在虛擬賽道上進行測試。
Simulation has proved to be pivotal for managing the battery temperature and maximizing the car's performance within these demanding driving conditions.
事實證明,模擬對於在這些苛刻的駕駛條件下管理電池溫度和最大限度地提高汽車性能至關重要。
The next area I'd like to discuss is autonomy and driver-assisted systems. While the road to truly autonomous vehicles may be a long one, the simulation-driven advances required to bring this technology to market are leading to safer driving experiences today. Using ANSYS customers are improving advanced driver assistance systems, also known as ADAS. For example, sensors play a critical role in providing human drivers as well as autonomous systems, the data they need to make intelligent and safe decisions. ANSYS solutions for LiDAR, radar and cameras enable engineers to improve sensor performance to determine optimal vehicle integration configurations and to examine their behavior across a range of operational scenarios. ANSYS Customer Continental is using ANSYS simulation for optical integration analysis and corner case studies that are integral to the development and validation of new sensors and computer vision algorithms. ANSYS simulation is helping Continental to flash development time and physical testing, while reducing cost and freeing up engineering resources.
我想討論的下一個領域是自動駕駛和駕駛員輔助系統。雖然實現真正的自動駕駛汽車的道路可能很漫長,但將這項技術推向市場所需的模擬驅動的進步正在帶來當今更安全的駕駛體驗。使用 ANSYS 客戶正在改進高級駕駛輔助系統,也稱為 ADAS。例如,感測器在為人類駕駛員和自動系統提供做出智慧和安全決策所需的數據方面發揮關鍵作用。 ANSYS 針對 LiDAR、雷達和攝影機的解決方案使工程師能夠提高感測器效能,以確定最佳車輛整合配置並檢查其在一系列操作場景中的行為。 ANSYS 客戶大陸集團正在使用 ANSYS 模擬進行光學整合分析和角落案例研究,這是新感測器和電腦視覺演算法的開發和驗證不可或缺的一部分。 ANSYS 模擬正在幫助大陸集團縮短開發時間和實體測試,同時降低成本並釋放工程資源。
The next area I would like to discuss is the development of software-defined vehicles. These automobiles have features that are primarily enabled through software and can be remotely upgraded over the car's lifetime. The market for software-defined vehicles is expected to grow from about $35 billion today to over $200 billion early in the next decade, thanks to software-driven features for safety, infotainment and efficiency.
我想討論的下一個領域是軟體定義車輛的開發。這些汽車的功能主要透過軟體啟用,並且可以在汽車的使用壽命內進行遠端升級。由於採用軟體驅動的安全、資訊娛樂和效率功能,軟體定義汽車的市場預計將從目前的約 350 億美元增長到下一個十年初期的超過 2000 億美元。
ANSYS solutions enable these feature-rich functions through model-based certified embedded software and cogeneration, electronics reliability, and connectivity systems. These advances enable engineers to meet industry safety requirements faster than manual approaches and at lower costs.
ANSYS 解決方案透過基於模型的經過認證的嵌入式軟體和熱電聯產、電子可靠性和連接系統來實現這些功能豐富的功能。這些進步使工程師能夠比手動方法更快、成本更低地滿足產業安全要求。
Long-time ANSYS customer, ZF Group is using our solutions to reduce the complexity of analysis for embedded systems. These embedded systems must be capable of operating reliably and safely on a challenging environmental conditions. In the past, ZF used different tools for failure modes and effects analysis and faultry analysis. By standardizing on ANSYS, the company reports saving hundreds of hours on each of the many analysis projects they run.
ZF 集團是 ANSYS 的長期客戶,正在使用我們的解決方案來降低嵌入式系統分析的複雜性。這些嵌入式系統必須能夠在具有挑戰性的環境條件下可靠、安全地運作。過去,採埃孚使用不同的工具進行故障模式和影響分析以及故障分析。該公司報告稱,透過 ANSYS 標準化,他們運行的眾多分析項目中的每個項目都節省了數百個小時。
The final area I would like to mention is in vehicle development. This is a space in which ANSYS has a long history as we play a key role in such critical areas as aerodynamics, lighting, crash safety analysis and material management for sustainability initiatives. For example, ANSYS LS-DYNA diner simulates crash scenarios and accurately predicts the impact on the vehicle as well as the driver and passengers, thanks to human body models.
我想提到的最後一個領域是車輛開發。 ANSYS 在這個領域擁有悠久的歷史,因為我們在空氣動力學、照明、碰撞安全分析和永續發展計劃的材料管理等關鍵領域發揮關鍵作用。例如,ANSYS LS-DYNA diner 可以模擬碰撞場景,並藉助人體模型準確預測對車輛以及駕駛和乘客的影響。
Our Materials Intelligence Solutions enable vehicle lightweighting efforts while assessing the environmental impact of materials throughout their life cycle. With the growth of lighting technologies and headlamps and tail lamps, ANSYS Lighting Solutions have reduced the need for prototypes.
我們的材料智慧解決方案支援車輛輕量化工作,同時評估材料在其整個生命週期中對環境的影響。隨著照明技術以及頭燈和尾燈的發展,ANSYS 照明解決方案減少了對原型的需求。
One of our key contracts in the quarter was with a global automotive OEM based in Europe that is standardized on ANSYS for virtual crash testing and impact analysis replacing a competitive product. The company is leveraging ANSYS simulations to help meet its goal of reducing engineering lead time by 30% and cutting the cost of physical testing by 50%.
本季我們的一項重要合約是與一家總部位於歐洲的全球汽車 OEM 簽訂的合同,該合約採用 ANSYS 進行標準化,用於虛擬碰撞測試和影響分析,以取代競爭產品。該公司正在利用 ANSYS 模擬來幫助實現將工程交付時間縮短 30% 並將實體測試成本降低 50% 的目標。
In Q3, we also signed a contract with a leading provider of automotive seating products. This long-time customer has expanded its use of ANSYS multiphysics solutions from explicit dynamics, electromagnetics and functional safety to include mechanical, fluids and high-performance computing.
第三季度,我們也與一家領先的汽車座椅產品供應商簽訂了合約。該長期客戶已將 ANSYS 多物理場解決方案的使用範圍從顯式動力學、電磁學和功能安全擴展到機械、流體和高效能運算。
This expanded ANSYS footprint benefits a number of projects for example, enabling the company to simulate the fan noise from its ventilated seats. With ANSYS technology, this automotive leader has dramatically cut development costs, reduced simulation time from days to hours and enabled the company to respond faster and more accurately to customer requests for quotes.
ANSYS 佔地面積的擴大使許多專案受益,例如,使該公司能夠模擬通風座椅的風扇噪音。借助 ANSYS 技術,這家汽車行業領導者大幅降低了開發成本,將模擬時間從幾天縮短到幾小時,並使公司能夠更快、更準確地回應客戶的報價請求。
I'd also like to mention a different kind of customer win. I'm excited to congratulate ANSYS customer, Oracle, Red Bull racing on an amazing season, which culminated in capturing the 2023 Formula 1 world constructors and world drivers championships.
我還想提一下另一種贏得客戶的方式。我很高興祝賀 ANSYS 客戶、甲骨文、紅牛賽車度過了一個精彩的賽季,並最終贏得了 2023 年一級方程式世界車隊和世界車手錦標賽。
Using ANSYS solutions, the team simulated airflow interactions with differing shapes of the car surface while also analyzing engine cooling intakes.
使用 ANSYS 解決方案,團隊模擬了氣流與汽車表面不同形狀的相互作用,同時也分析了引擎冷卻入口。
As a result, the team drove away with the championship.
結果,球隊帶走了冠軍。
Moving beyond the automotive industry. I'm excited to announce that we have enrolled our 2,000th company as a member of the ANSYS startup program. As I've said in the past, while members of our startup program represent a small piece of our overall business, they are amongst the most innovative users of our products. And with the program's strong graduation rates, more and more expand their use of ANSYS technology and become larger ANSYS customers.
超越汽車產業。我很高興地宣布,我們已將第 2,000 家公司註冊為 ANSYS 啟動計劃的成員。正如我過去所說,雖然我們的新創計畫成員只占我們整體業務的一小部分,但他們是我們產品最具創新性的用戶之一。隨著該計劃的強勁畢業率,越來越多的人擴展了 ANSYS 技術的使用並成為更大的 ANSYS 客戶。
I'm also proud that ANSYS has received a number of awards this quarter related to employee engagement and satisfaction from organizations such as Newsweek, Best Workplaces in Europe and U.S. News and Wall report. These recognitions are a testament to our supportive, diverse and inclusive culture as well as the quality of our team around the world.
我還感到自豪的是,ANSYS 本季獲得了《新聞周刊》、《歐洲最佳工作場所》、《美國新聞》和《華爾街報道》等組織頒發的多項與員工敬業度和滿意度相關的獎項。這些認可證明了我們的支持性、多元化和包容性文化以及我們全球團隊的品質。
In summary, Q3 was marked by an external challenge that impacted our ability to process certain transactions. Our global business remains strong, and the demand for ANSYS technology is robust. That's because companies across industries rely on ANSYS to solve the most challenging problems that they are facing.
總之,第三季的特點是外部挑戰影響了我們處理某些交易的能力。我們的全球業務依然強勁,對 ANSYS 技術的需求也很強勁。這是因為各行業的公司都依賴 ANSYS 來解決他們面臨的最具挑戰性的問題。
These global organizations understand that ANSYS' expertise and deep and broad portfolio of multiphysics solutions can help them solve their key product and business challenges. That combined with our best-in-class product portfolio, our deep customer relationships and the ongoing strength of our pipeline give me confidence in our ability to meet our commitments.
這些全球組織明白 ANSYS 的專業知識和深入廣泛的多實體場解決方案組合可以幫助他們解決關鍵的產品和業務挑戰。再加上我們一流的產品組合、深厚的客戶關係以及我們管道的持續實力,讓我對我們履行承諾的能力充滿信心。
And with that, I will turn the call over to Nicole.
這樣,我會將電話轉給妮可。
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Thank you, Ajei. Good morning, everyone. Let me take a few minutes to add some perspective on our third quarter financial performance and provide context for our outlook and assumptions for Q4 and full year 2023. Our ability to deliver double-digit ACV constant currency growth in Q3 despite the disruption from the changes required for export compliance in China is a testament to the resilience of our business model.
謝謝你,阿傑。大家,早安。讓我花幾分鐘時間對我們第三季度的財務業績提出一些看法,並為我們對第四季度和2023 年全年的前景和假設提供背景。儘管變化造成了乾擾,但我們有能力在第三季度實現兩位數的ACV 恆定貨幣成長中國出口合規要求證明了我們業務模式的彈性。
Our highly recurring business model, significant base of renewals, market-leading simulation portfolio and deep customer relationships, create a strong financial foundation and contribute to unwavering demand for our product. As a result, we are raising our full year ACV and revenue guidance for operational momentum in the business. This momentum is offset by impacts of incremental approval processes and export restrictions in China and foreign exchange headwinds.
我們高度重複的業務模式、重要的續訂基礎、市場領先的模擬產品組合和深厚的客戶關係,創造了強大的財務基礎,並有助於對我們產品的堅定需求。因此,我們提高了全年 ACV 和收入指引,以推動業務營運動能。這一勢頭被中國增量審批程序和出口限制以及外匯不利因素的影響所抵消。
I'll provide additional details on our guidance in a few minutes.
我將在幾分鐘內提供有關我們指南的更多詳細資訊。
Now let me discuss some of our Q3 financial highlights. Beginning with ACV we delivered $457.5 million in Q3, which grew 12% year-over-year or 10% in constant currency. Our growth was broad-based across customer types, geographic regions and most industries. ACV from recurring sources grew 13% or 16% in constant currency on a trailing 12-month basis and represented 83% of the total.
現在讓我討論一下我們第三季的一些財務亮點。從 ACV 開始,我們在第三季交付了 4.575 億美元,年增 12%,以固定匯率計算成長 10%。我們的成長廣泛涉及客戶類型、地理區域和大多數行業。來自經常性來源的 ACV 在過去 12 個月的基礎上成長了 13% 或以固定匯率計算 16%,佔總數的 83%。
This momentum in recurring ACV growth is driven by the strong annuity created by our ongoing shift towards subscription lease licenses. This annuity creates resiliency and durability in our business model. It provides a robust foundation for near and long-term growth, which enables us to navigate the impact of business disruptions that can occur from time to time, like the impact of the changes to export compliance that we saw in Q3.
ACV 經常性成長的勢頭是由我們持續轉向訂閱租賃許可證所產生的強勁年金所推動的。這種年金為我們的商業模式創造了彈性和持久性。它為近期和長期成長奠定了堅實的基礎,使我們能夠應對不時發生的業務中斷的影響,例如我們在第三季度看到的出口合規性變化的影響。
Q3 total revenue was $458.8 million and was down 3% or down 4% in constant currency, primarily due to ASC 606 dynamics given the quarterly mix of license types that generate upfront revenue recognition, which we previously discussed on our August earnings call and detailed in our Q2 prepared remarks document.
第三季總收入為4.588 億美元,下降了3%,以固定匯率計算下降了4%,這主要是由於ASC 606 的動態,考慮到產生預先收入確認的許可證類型的季度組合,我們之前在8 月的財報電話會議上討論過這一點,並在我們第二季度準備了備註文件。
During the third quarter both ACV and revenue were below expectations. As incremental approval processes and exports restrictions on certain prospects in China created a $20 million headwind. when we set our guidance range, we guide based on the pipeline and book of business that we see in front of us. During the third quarter, we saw an impact on the contracts we expected to sign due to incremental approval processes and export restrictions that were not contemplated in our Q3 guidance provided in August. As a result, our Q3 ACV and revenue results were below our guidance.
第三季 ACV 和營收均低於預期。由於審批流程的增加以及對中國某些前景的出口限製造成了 2000 萬美元的阻力。當我們設定指導範圍時,我們會根據眼前看到的管道和業務手冊進行指導。在第三季度,由於增量審批流程和出口限制,我們預計簽署的合約受到了影響,而這些在我們 8 月提供的第三季度指導中並未考慮到。因此,我們第三季的 ACV 和收入結果低於我們的指引。
Without this impact, we would have landed near the high end of our third quarter guidance on ACV and above the high end of our revenue guidance. We have a very strong track record of achieving our guidance and it was unfortunate that we were not able to achieve our guidance for ACV and revenue this quarter.
如果沒有這種影響,我們將接近第三季 ACV 指引的上限,並高於我們收入指引的上限。我們在實現我們的指導方面擁有非常出色的記錄,但不幸的是,我們本季未能實現 ACV 和收入的指導。
We continue to have a broad and diverse business model and a strong financial foundation with significant recurring ACV. We remain optimistic on our future growth.
我們繼續擁有廣泛而多樣化的業務模式和強大的財務基礎以及顯著的經常性 ACV。我們對未來的成長保持樂觀。
Despite the disruption in Q3, our year-to-date ACV performance was robust with ACV growing double digit in constant currency at 12% and broad-based growth across geographies and customer types. We closed the quarter with a total balance of a GAAP deferred revenue and backlog of $1.2 billion, which grew 9% year-over-year.
儘管第三季出現了中斷,但我們今年迄今的 ACV 表現依然強勁,以固定匯率計算,ACV 實現了兩位數增長 12%,並且在各個地區和客戶類型上都有廣泛的增長。本季末,我們的 GAAP 遞延收入和積壓訂單總額為 12 億美元,年增 9%。
During the quarter, we continued to deliver a business model with strong operating leverage. This yielded a solid third quarter gross margin of 91% and an operating margin of 34.1%, which was better than our guidance. Operating margin was positively impacted by lower expenses and the timing of some investments.
本季度,我們繼續提供具有強大營運槓桿的業務模式。這使得第三季毛利率達到 91%,營業利潤率為 34.1%,優於我們的指導。營業利潤率受到較低費用和一些投資時機的正面影響。
The result was third quarter EPS of $1.41, which was also better than our guidance. Similar to operating margin, EPS benefited from lower expenses and the timing of some investments. Our effective tax rate in the third quarter was 17.5%, which is the rate that we expect for the remainder of 2023.
結果是第三季每股收益為 1.41 美元,也好於我們的指引。與營業利益率類似,每股盈餘受益於較低的費用和一些投資的時機。我們第三季的有效稅率為 17.5%,這是我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的預期稅率。
Our unlevered operating cash flow in the third quarter totaled $170.6 million and was in line with expectations and continues to be supported by strong cash collections. We ended the quarter with $640 million of cash in short-term investments on the balance sheet.
第三季我們的無槓桿營運現金流總計 1.706 億美元,符合預期,並持續受到強勁現金回籠的支持。本季結束時,我們資產負債表上的短期投資現金為 6.4 億美元。
Now let me turn to the topic of guidance. Looking to the remainder of the year, the business continues to show momentum, which bolsters our confidence in achieving our 2023 and long-term outlook.
現在讓我談談指導的話題。展望今年剩餘時間,業務繼續呈現成長勢頭,這增強了我們實現 2023 年和長期前景的信心。
Let me start with our full year 2023 guidance. We are updating our full year ACV outlook to a range of $2.243 billion to $2.188 billion which represents growth of 10.4% to 12.6% or 11% to 13.3% in constant currency. We continue to see our ACV growth driven by our broad-based customer demand for our product. And as a result, we are operationally increasing our full year ACV by $11 million relative to our August guidance. This momentum was offset by $25 million of the impact from additional export restrictions and approval processes for certain prospects in China, and $28 million of additional foreign exchange headwinds.
讓我從我們的 2023 年全年指導開始。我們將全年 ACV 展望更新為 22.43 億美元至 21.88 億美元,這意味著以固定匯率計算成長 10.4% 至 12.6% 或 11% 至 13.3%。我們繼續看到 ACV 的成長是由我們產品的廣泛客戶需求所推動的。因此,我們的全年 ACV 相對於 8 月的指引增加了 1,100 萬美元。這一勢頭被中國某些前景的額外出口限制和審批程序的影響以及 2800 萬美元的額外外匯不利因素所抵消。
This $25 million China export restriction and process headwind will mute ANSYS' growth in China in 2023. And includes some timing and loss of business impact. Despite the impact from China, our ACV growth outlook for the full year is 12% constant currency growth at the midpoint which is on our financial model of 12% ACV growth, including tuck-in M&A.
中國這一價值 2,500 萬美元的出口限制和流程阻力將削弱 ANSYS 在 2023 年在中國的成長。並包括一些時間安排和業務損失的影響。儘管受到中國的影響,我們對全年 ACV 成長的預期是按中點計算 12% 的恆定貨幣成長,這是基於我們 12% ACV 成長(包括併購)的財務模型。
We are updating our revenue outlook to a range of $2.234 billion to $2.284 billion, which is growth of 7.8% to 10.2% or 8.4% to 10.9% in constant currency. We are operationally increasing our full year revenue by $15 million relative to our August guidance. This momentum was offset by $25 million of impact from additional export restrictions and approval processes for certain prospects in China and $23 million of additional foreign exchange headwinds.
我們將營收預期更新為 22.34 億美元至 22.84 億美元,成長 7.8% 至 10.2%,以固定匯率計算成長 8.4% 至 10.9%。相對於 8 月的指導,我們的全年收入在營運上增加了 1500 萬美元。這一勢頭被中國某些前景的額外出口限制和審批程序帶來的 2500 萬美元的影響以及 2300 萬美元的額外外匯不利因素所抵消。
We expect our full year EPS to be in the range of $8.34 to $8.75. Relative to our August guidance, our updated full year EPS contemplates $0.25 of operational improvement, which was offset by $0.21 of impact from additional export restrictions and approval processes for certain prospects in China, and $0.13 of additional foreign exchange headwinds.
我們預計全年每股收益將在 8.34 美元至 8.75 美元之間。相對於我們8 月的指引,我們更新後的全年每股收益預計營運改善0.25 美元,但被額外的出口限制和中國某些前景的審批流程帶來的0.21 美元的影響以及0.13 美元的額外外匯不利因素所抵消。
Now let me turn to our full year unlevered operating cash flow guidance. As a reminder, we now provide guidance for unlevered operating cash flow as it aligns to the long-term cumulative $3 billion cash flow outlook we provided at our 2022 investor update. Our 2023 guidance is a range of $705 million to $735 million and relative to our August guidance includes a $10 million increase from operational improvement, which was offset by $7 million of impact from additional export restrictions and approval processes for certain prospects in China and $7 million of additional foreign exchange headwind.
現在讓我談談我們的全年無槓桿經營現金流指引。提醒一下,我們現在為無槓桿經營現金流提供指導,因為它與我們在 2022 年投資者更新中提供的長期累計 30 億美元現金流前景保持一致。我們的2023 年指導範圍為7.05 億至7.35 億美元,相對於我們8 月份的指導,包括營運改善增加1,000 萬美元,但被中國某些前景的額外出口限制和審批流程帶來的700 萬美元影響和700 萬美元所抵消額外的外匯逆風。
The underlying operating leverage in our business remains robust. Further details on the reconciliation of GAAP operating cash flow to the comparable non-GAAP unlevered operating cash flow are contained in our prepared remarks document. Although we experienced an unexpected impact in Q3 from changes in export compliance, our underlying model remains strong. This is driven by robust market growth, a best-in-class portfolio, deep customer relationships and a highly recurring business model with strong operating leverage.
我們業務的基本營運槓桿仍然強勁。有關 GAAP 營運現金流量與可比較的非 GAAP 無槓桿經營現金流量調整的更多詳細信息,請參閱我們準備的備註文件。儘管我們在第三季經歷了出口合規變化的意外影響,但我們的基礎模型仍然強勁。這是由強勁的市場成長、一流的產品組合、深厚的客戶關係以及具有強大營運槓桿的高重複性業務模式所推動的。
Our current full year 2023 guidance midpoint implies a 2-year unlevered operating cash flow CAGR of 14% since 2021. This reflects the strong top line momentum and operating leverage where unlevered operating cash flow growth outpaces ACV growth.
我們目前的2023 年全年指導中點意味著自2021 年以來的2 年無槓桿營運現金流複合年增長率為14%。這反映了強勁的營收動能和營運槓桿,其中無槓桿營運現金流成長超過了ACV 成長。
Now let me turn to guidance for Q4. For the fourth quarter, we expect ACV in the range of $897.8 million to $942.8 million. Turning to the P&L. We expect Q4 revenue in the range of $769.2 million to $819.2 million. We expect Q4 operating margin in the range of 48.9% to 51.2% and EPS in the range of $3.48 to $3.89.
現在讓我談談第四季的指導。我們預計第四季的 ACV 在 8.978 億美元至 9.428 億美元之間。轉向損益表。我們預計第四季營收在 7.692 億美元至 8.192 億美元之間。我們預計第四季營業利潤率為 48.9% 至 51.2%,每股收益為 3.48 美元至 3.89 美元。
Given the robust renewal business in our fourth quarter, we are confident in achieving our Q4 guidance. Our core simulation market is strong and diversified with consistent demand from our customers as they encounter increasingly complex product development challenges. Despite the headwinds we expect to see from the impact of additional export restrictions and approval processes for certain prospects in China, we have confidence in our long-term model.
鑑於第四季強勁的續訂業務,我們有信心實現第四季的指導。我們的核心模擬市場強大且多元化,隨著客戶面臨日益複雜的產品開發挑戰,他們的需求始終如一。儘管我們預計中國某些前景的額外出口限制和審批程序的影響會帶來阻力,但我們對我們的長期模式充滿信心。
As a result, in February, we expect to initiate full year 2024 guidance with ACV of around 10% constant currency growth, excluding tuck-in M&A, which is consistent with our model. Within this outlook, we are absorbing the impact of the updated export restrictions and incremental processes related to certain prospects located in China, which will mute ANSYS' ACV and revenue growth in China in 2024.
因此,我們預計在 2 月啟動 2024 年全年指引,ACV 維持 10% 左右的恆定匯率成長(不包括合併併購),這與我們的模型一致。在這項展望中,我們正在吸收更新的出口限制和與中國某些前景相關的增量流程的影響,這將削弱 ANSYS 2024 年在中國的 ACV 和收入成長。
We continue to focus our efforts on areas of opportunity and innovation to ensure continued growth.
我們繼續將精力集中在機會和創新領域,以確保持續成長。
As a result, we also reaffirm our long-term outlook from 2022 to 2025 of 12% constant currency ACV growth, including tuck-in M&A and $3 billion of cumulative unlevered operating cash flow. Further details around specific currency rates and other assumptions that have been factored into our outlook for 2023 and Q4 are contained in the prepared remarks document.
因此,我們也重申了 2022 年至 2025 年 ACV 恆定貨幣成長率為 12% 的長期前景,其中包括併購和累積 30 億美元的無槓桿營運現金流。我們對 2023 年和第四季度展望中考慮的具體貨幣匯率和其他假設的更多詳細資訊包含在準備好的評論文件中。
ANSYS' business is highly resilient with a diverse and broad customer base, market-leading portfolio, deep customer relationships and recurring financial model. To the entire ANSYS team, thank you for your dedication and hard work in supporting our customers and delivering world-class innovation. We saw some complexity during the quarter, and we executed well in a challenging environment.
ANSYS 的業務具有高度彈性,擁有多元化且廣泛的客戶群、市場領先的產品組合、深厚的客戶關係和經常性財務模型。對於整個 ANSYS 團隊,感謝你們在支持我們的客戶和提供世界級創新方面的奉獻和辛勤工作。我們在本季度看到了一些複雜性,但我們在充滿挑戰的環境中表現良好。
I remain confident in our ability to deliver our 2023 and long-term outlook while working alongside the best team in the industry.
我對我們在與業內最優秀的團隊合作的同時實現 2023 年和長期前景的能力仍然充滿信心。
Operator, we will now open the phone lines to take questions.
接線員,我們現在打開電話線路接受提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jay Vleeschhouwer of Griffin Securities.
(操作員指示)我們的第一個問題來自 Griffin 證券公司的 Jay Vleeschhouwer。
Jay Vleeschhouwer - MD of Software Research
Jay Vleeschhouwer - MD of Software Research
Let's start with China. With respect to the enhanced processes that you referred to in the prepared remarks and the 10-Q, could you elaborate on what that means, what was ANSYS not doing perhaps efficiently internally to vet the customers? And would it be fair to say that the ANSYS products in question were not solely EDA products. In other words, this isn't just a product that we're going to Chinese semis, but other non-EDA products as well to perhaps other end customers in China. Then my follow-up.
讓我們從中國開始。關於您在準備好的評論和 10-Q 中提到的增強流程,您能否詳細說明這意味著什麼?ANSYS 內部可能沒有有效地審查客戶哪些方面?可以公平地說,所討論的 ANSYS 產品不僅僅是 EDA 產品嗎?換句話說,這不僅僅是我們要提供給中國半成品的產品,還包括其他非 EDA 產品以及可能提供給中國其他最終客戶的產品。然後是我的後續。
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Jay. So let me take that. And so there's clearly a bit of a misunderstanding in your question. So let me just try to sort of lay this out so that you have more clarity on the context here. So as you know, in the context of the broader U.S. foreign policy shifts, the Department of Commerce is engaging both privately and publicly with companies to apply export controls to China of certain technologies. And of course, elite high-tech companies are facing new restrictions. And given the capabilities of ANSYS products and their broad applicability across industries and across use cases, we have implemented an additional layer of vetting for prospects located in China to comply with the incremental requirements from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
傑伊.那麼就讓我接受吧。所以你的問題顯然存在一些誤解。因此,讓我嘗試對此進行闡述,以便您更清楚地了解這裡的上下文。如您所知,在美國外交政策更廣泛轉變的背景下,商務部正在私下和公開地與企業接觸,以對中國的某些技術實施出口管制。當然,精英高科技公司也面臨新的限制。鑑於 ANSYS 產品的功能及其跨行業和跨用例的廣泛適用性,我們對中國的潛在客戶實施了額外的審查,以符合美國商務部的增量要求。
So let me just sort of walk through how the quarter unfolded. So we were on track to delivering against our third quarter guidance commitments when the Commerce Department informed us of these additional restrictions as well as incremental approval processes on the sale of certain ANSYS' products to entities located in China. And so we immediately complied. We suspended processing orders from those affected prospects that were located in China pending the resolution of some ambiguities that were related to the process.
讓我簡單介紹一下本季的情況。因此,當商務部通知我們這些額外限制以及向中國實體銷售某些 ANSYS 產品的增量審批流程時,我們正有望兌現第三季指導承諾。於是我們立即答應了。我們暫停處理來自中國受影響潛在客戶的訂單,等待解決與流程相關的一些模糊問題。
And we work with the Commerce Department, but unfortunately, by the time we received clarity on the incremental vetting that was required above and beyond our existing compliance program, it was the last business day of Q3, and that made it too late to complete our vetting process within the quarter.
我們與商務部合作,但不幸的是,當我們明確了解超出現有合規計劃所需的增量審查時,已經是第三季度的最後一個工作日了,這使得完成我們的工作為時已晚。季度內的審查過程。
Now moving forward, we have internally aligned our business operations to adjust to these new vetting requirements and the result is an increase in the time that it takes us to process transactions with certain prospects that are located in China. But as I said in the call, despite these developments related to prospects in China, the ANSYS business overall is performing well. We delivered a strong quarter, marked by double-digit growth in ACV, and we continue to see robust and broad-based demand for our technologies and the products.
現在,我們已經在內部調整了我們的業務運營,以適應這些新的審查要求,結果是我們處理與位於中國的某些潛在客戶的交易所需的時間增加。但正如我在電話中所說,儘管這些發展與中國的前景有關,但 ANSYS 業務總體表現良好。我們交付了一個強勁的季度,以 ACV 兩位數的成長為標誌,我們繼續看到對我們的技術和產品的強勁和廣泛的需求。
And given the critical role that our solutions play in our customers' product development initiatives, and the strength of the underlying foundations of our global business, we're confident in our ability to execute against our short and our long-term objective.
鑑於我們的解決方案在客戶的產品開發計劃中發揮的關鍵作用,以及我們全球業務的基礎實力,我們對執行短期和長期目標的能力充滿信心。
Jay Vleeschhouwer - MD of Software Research
Jay Vleeschhouwer - MD of Software Research
Okay. With respect to guidance for Q4 and the initial thoughts on next year, was the operational raise for Q4, both renewals business, in other words, you're expecting some higher ACV in the renewals and new, new business, perhaps from new logos. And then for the 10% for next year, how are you thinking about the contribution from the new AIML enhanced products that you're beginning to deploy as per the schedule you gave back in July.
好的。關於第四季度的指導和明年的初步想法,是第四季度的營運成長,包括續訂業務,換句話說,您預計續訂和新的新業務(可能來自新商標)會出現更高的ACV 。然後,對於明年的 10%,您如何看待您按照 7 月給出的時間表開始部署的新 AIML 增強產品的貢獻。
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
So Jay, maybe I'll just take the Q4 guidance question, and then we can add some more color on your last part of your question. So although we experienced an unexpected impact from changes in export compliance in China, the underlying model remains strong, as Ajei said. And as a testament to this year-to-date, we achieved 12% ACV growth in constant currency, which is, of course, on our model.
所以傑伊,也許我會回答第四季度的指導問題,然後我們可以為您問題的最後部分添加更多色彩。因此,儘管我們經歷了中國出口合規變化的意外影響,但正如 Ajei 所說,基本模式仍然強勁。作為今年迄今為止的證明,以固定匯率計算,我們實現了 12% 的 ACV 成長,這當然是在我們的模型中實現的。
Our business is very resilient. As you know, 80% of it comes from recurring sources. And as we look to Q4, the robust renewal business that we see in the fourth quarter gives us confidence in achieving our guidance. And maybe just to add an additional data point to add some color as to where we stand as of October, as of the end of October, we have just under half the business in our Q4 outlook already committed, so despite the disruption from changes required for export or compliance in China, we're continuing to see the operational momentum in the rest of our business. That's what gave us the confidence in raising the full year ACV by $11 million compared to the August guidance, which, of course, was offset by the $25 million of impact from additional restrictions and processes in our business in China and of course, the foreign exchange impact of $28 million. But outside of this impact, we continue to see momentum across the business, and we haven't seen any notable changes in customer activity.
我們的業務非常有彈性。如您所知,其中 80% 來自重複來源。當我們展望第四季時,我們在第四季度看到的強勁續訂業務讓我們有信心實現我們的指導。也許只是添加一個額外的數據點來為我們截至 10 月份的情況增添一些色彩,截至 10 月底,我們已經承諾了第四季度展望中不到一半的業務,因此儘管所需的變化造成了乾擾對於中國的出口或合規性,我們繼續看到我們其他業務的營運勢頭。這讓我們有信心將全年 ACV 比 8 月份的指引提高 1100 萬美元,當然,這被我們在中國業務以及外國業務的額外限制和流程帶來的 2500 萬美元的影響所抵消。2800 萬美元的匯率影響。但除了這種影響之外,我們繼續看到整個業務的發展勢頭,並且我們沒有看到客戶活動發生任何顯著變化。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Joe Vruwink from Baird.
下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的喬·弗魯溫克 (Joe Vruwink)。
Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst
Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst
I also want to start on the 10% growth outlook for 2024. I'm wondering how did you go about ring-fencing the potential risk from China export controls into next year? Is it just kind of run rating the 2023 experience? Or are you layering on incremental assumptions?
我還想從 2024 年 10% 的成長前景開始。我想知道您是如何將中國出口管制的潛在風險隔離到明年的?這只是 2023 年體驗的運行評級嗎?或者你是在增量假設的基礎上分層的嗎?
And then I was hoping you could maybe be a bit more explicit on just total ACV exposure from China and then a sense of maybe how much business has assumed not to transact within the 2024 initial outlook?
然後我希望您能更明確地說明來自中國的蘋果醋總敞口,然後了解有多少企業假設在 2024 年初步展望內不會進行交易?
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Sure. Happy to do that. So why don't I kind of take you through -- why don't I take you through the kind of the Q3 impact, how we -- kind of how that -- we think that impacts 2023 and what the flow-through impact to '24 in the long term will be to kind of try to holistically answer some of your questions. But just to kind of give some overall context going into that in terms of your question around China exposure overall.
當然。很高興這樣做。那麼,為什麼我不帶您了解一下 - 為什麼我不帶您了解一下第三季度的影響,我們如何 - 怎麼樣 - 我們認為這會影響 2023 年以及流動影響從長遠來看,《24》將嘗試全面回答您的一些問題。但只是為了就您關於中國整體風險敞口的問題提供一些總體背景。
Our business is broad and diverse. And as you know, we're diversified across many industries and geographies and customer types. And our business in China is around 5% of ACV, both on a trailing 12-month basis and full year 2022. So it's a relatively a smaller portion of the portfolio.
我們的業務廣泛且多樣化。如您所知,我們在許多行業、地區和客戶類型中實現多元化。無論是過去 12 個月還是 2022 年全年,我們在中國的業務約佔 ACV 的 5%。因此,它在投資組合中所佔的比例相對較小。
Now in the third quarter, again, our ability to deliver that double-digit constant currency growth in the quarter despite the disruptions we saw is really a testament to the resilience of our business model, which as we talk about 2024 is what gives us the confidence in our outlook. Now the third quarter results were impacted by those incremental vetting processes and restrictions to the certain prospects in China that created about a $20 million headwind to ACV and revenue, which was not contemplated in our third quarter guidance.
現在,在第三季度,儘管我們看到了乾擾,但我們仍然有能力在本季度實現兩位數的恆定貨幣增長,這確實證明了我們業務模式的彈性,正如我們所談論的2024 年,這給了我們對我們的前景充滿信心。現在,第三季的業績受到了這些增量審查流程和對中國某些前景的限制的影響,這對ACV 和收入造成了約2000 萬美元的阻力,而我們的第三季指導中沒有考慮到這一點。
But without this impact, we would have landed near the high end of our third quarter guidance range on ACV and above the high end of our revenue guidance. Now we expect that the majority of the $20 million to be a timing shift with a small portion of being lost in business.
但如果沒有這種影響,我們的 ACV 業務將接近第三季指引範圍的上限,並高於我們收入指引的上限。現在我們預計 2000 萬美元中的大部分將是時間上的轉變,其中一小部分將損失在業務上。
So as you extend into our 2023 outlook -- embedded in the 2023 outlook, it does reflect that incremental operational performance and the momentum that we've seen in the business overall, which is, of course, offset by the impact from the export compliance changes, but for the full year in 2023, we expect the impact from incremental export restrictions in the vetting processes in China to have a $25 million impact on ACV and revenue, and we believe just to kind of give a rough sizing, about 1/3 of that is loss of business and 2/3 of that would be an expected timing shift from the elongated transaction cycle. So the effect of this will mute 2023 growth in China.
因此,當您延伸到我們的2023 年展望時——嵌入2023 年展望中,它確實反映了我們在整體業務中看到的增量營運績效和勢頭,當然,這被出口合規性的影響所抵銷變化,但就 2023 年全年而言,我們預計中國審批流程中增加的出口限制將對 ACV 和收入產生 2500 萬美元的影響,我們認為只是粗略估計一下,大約是 1/其中3 是業務損失,其中2/3 是交易週期延長的預期時間變動。因此,這將削弱中國 2023 年的成長。
Now as we look to the future, the incremental export restrictions and vetting processes, we also believe will mute ANSYS' ACV and revenue growth in China in 2024 and we expect that impact just -- since you asked about sizing, we expect it to be about $10 million to $30 million on both ACV and revenue in the full year in '24. And as the majority of that headwind will be loss of business, we would expect the '24 cash impact to be similar in that range as well.
現在,當我們展望未來時,不斷增加的出口限制和審查流程,我們還相信2024 年將抑制ANSYS 在中國的ACV 和收入增長,我們預計這種影響只是——既然你問到了規模問題,我們預計它將2024 年全年的 ACV 和收入約為 1,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元。由於大部分不利因素將是業務損失,我們預計 24 年的現金影響也將在該範圍內類似。
Now despite these headwinds, in February, we still expect to initiate full year 2024 guidance on our model with ACV around 10% constant currency growth, excluding tuck-in M&A. And really, the double-digit performance we saw year-to-date the strong pipeline and momentum in our business, all of these really give us the confidence not only in our '24 outlook, but in our ability to achieve our long-term outlook which, of course, was a 12% constant currency ACV growth, including tuck-in M&A and $3 billion of cumulative unlevered operating cash flows from 2022 to 2025.
現在,儘管存在這些不利因素,我們仍預計在 2 月啟動對我們模型的 2024 年全年指導,其中 ACV 保持約 10% 的恆定貨幣增長率(不包括合併併購)。事實上,我們今年迄今看到的兩位數業績、強勁的產品線和業務勢頭,所有這些確實讓我們不僅對 24 年的前景充滿信心,而且對我們實現長期目標的能力充滿信心當然,我們的展望是12% 的恆定貨幣ACV 成長,包括2022 年至2025 年的併購和30 億美元的累計無槓桿營運現金流。
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
And if I could just jump in a little bit, just to talk -- to give you some color about the broader environment that we're working with. I have an opportunity as part of my job to talk to customers around the world to talk to channel partners around the world and the demand for our products and our services continues to be as strong as ever or stronger. And just given the nature of our technology, we feel very confident in our ability to solve some of our customers' most challenging problems. So we feel very good about our business. Obviously, Nicole walked through the impact of the China additional approval processes that we just went through.
如果我能插話一下,只是談談——讓你們了解我們正在合作的更廣泛的環境。作為工作的一部分,我有機會與世界各地的客戶交談,與世界各地的通路合作夥伴交談,對我們產品和服務的需求一如既往地強勁,甚至更強。鑑於我們技術的性質,我們對解決客戶一些最具挑戰性的問題的能力非常有信心。所以我們對我們的業務感覺非常好。顯然,妮可講述了我們剛剛經歷的中國額外審批流程的影響。
Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst
Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst
And just on that point, Ajei, and that was great, Nicole. Organic growth, and I'll say ex China, it was better than your formal framework in 2022, it's been better year-to-date. I guess, how do you think about the recent drivers of outperformance relative to your midterm plan and whether those maybe factor positively in 2024?
就在這一點上,Ajei,那太好了,Nicole。有機成長,我想說的是,除了中國,它比 2022 年的正式框架要好,今年迄今為止更好。我想,您如何看待近期相對於您的中期計畫表現優異的驅動因素,以及這些因素是否可能對 2024 年產生正面影響?
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Well, I think one of the key things that we've been doing very clearly and explicitly in our strategy is to be focusing on some important technologies that continue to improve our product capabilities and as well as being very explicit about going after some of these high-growth or next-generation use cases like electrification. So if you look at the nature of our technology, we can support those use cases. We're in a position to support our customers as they're thinking about these next-generation use cases. And that's -- those are the investments that we've been making in our product portfolio. And I talked about last time I talked about these 5 broad areas that we're investing in, the numerics of our business, HPC capabilities, AI capabilities, of course, cloud as well as digital engineering. And all of those are broad techniques that we use across our portfolio and advantage of our portfolio. So the investments that we're making are paying off as we support our customers.
嗯,我認為我們在策略中一直非常明確和明確地做的關鍵事情之一就是專注於一些重要的技術,這些技術將繼續提高我們的產品能力,並且非常明確地追求其中的一些技術高成長或下一代用例,例如電氣化。因此,如果您了解我們技術的本質,我們可以支援這些用例。當客戶考慮這些下一代用例時,我們能夠為他們提供支援。這就是我們一直在產品組合中進行的投資。我上次談到了我們正在投資的這 5 個廣泛領域,我們的業務數字、HPC 能力、AI 能力,當然還有雲端以及數位工程。所有這些都是我們在我們的投資組合中使用的廣泛技術和我們的投資組合的優勢。因此,當我們為客戶提供支援時,我們所做的投資正在得到回報。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Jason Celino of KeyBanc Capital Market.
下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Market 的 Jason Celino。
Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst
Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst
On the news, optically, I think is we're all a little surprised because it appears others may not be affected. Do you know if other companies were approached as well?
從表面上看,我認為我們都對這個消息感到有點驚訝,因為其他人可能不會受到影響。您知道是否也與其他公司接洽過?
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
So obviously, we don't know who else has been approached privately because these conversations are taking place between the Commerce Department board privately as well as publicly. So I can't really comment on who else has been approached. But the reality, as I said before, is you're seeing out there elite high-tech companies facing these new restrictions. And I would imagine that anyone who has products like ANSYS, which are highly capable products, which are broad-based and applicable across industries and across use cases might have similar discussions. But I obviously, I'm not in a position to comment about those. I don't know.
顯然,我們不知道還有誰私下接觸過,因為這些對話是在商務部董事會之間私下和公開地進行的。所以我無法真正評論還接觸過誰。但現實是,正如我之前所說,你會看到精英高科技公司面臨這些新的限制。我想,任何擁有像 ANSYS 這樣的產品的人都可能會有類似的討論,這些產品是功能強大的產品,基礎廣泛,適用於跨行業和用例。但顯然,我無法對這些發表評論。我不知道。
Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst
Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. And then just a quick one for Nicole. On the types of revenue that was affected, was it more perpetual or lease. Sorry, just a modeling that question.
好的。然後是妮可的快速介紹。關於受影響的收入類型,是永久收入還是租賃收入。抱歉,只是對這個問題進行建模。
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Sure. It was a combination of both. So as you know, our business model has been shifting to subscription lease over the long term. And this year in particular, you've seen just generally outside of this quarter. A faster shift to lease and so there was a mix of both that were impacted in the quarter.
當然。這是兩者的結合。如您所知,從長遠來看,我們的業務模式已經轉向訂閱租賃。尤其是今年,您通常會在本季之外看到這種情況。更快地轉向租賃,因此本季度兩者都受到了影響。
Kelsey DeBriyn - VP of IR
Kelsey DeBriyn - VP of IR
Operator, we can take the next question.
接線員,我們可以回答下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Ken Wong of Oppenheimer & Co.
我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的 Ken Wong。
Hoi-Fung Wong - Research Analyst
Hoi-Fung Wong - Research Analyst
Maybe first off for you, Ajei, maybe change gears a little bit. Just wanted to ask about the auto industry. There has been some concern that maybe with the strike that, that could have caused some deal slippage or anything like that. Just wondering if you saw any erosion in your auto business at all?
也許首先對你來說,Ajei,也許要稍微改變一下。只是想問一下汽車業的狀況。有人擔心罷工可能會導致一些交易下滑或類似的情況。只是想知道您的汽車業務是否受到任何侵蝕?
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Thanks for the question, Ken. So with auto -- the broad-based -- and I've said this multiple times, and I'll say it again, I mean, we're tied to the overall R&D cycle. And the broad-based conversations that are taking place with our automotive customers are around electrification around autonomy and those continue -- those conversations and those design imperatives continue unabated as far as our customers are concerned.
謝謝你的提問,肯。因此,對於汽車產業——基礎廣泛——我已經說過多次了,我會再說一遍,我的意思是,我們與整個研發週期息息相關。與我們的汽車客戶進行的廣泛對話是圍繞自動化和電氣化進行的,而且這些對話和設計需求仍在繼續,就我們的客戶而言,這些對話和設計要求仍然有增無減。
So that's really driving our business. And then, of course, we -- as I mentioned in the script, we also have the traditional business crash testing, external airflow, things like that, which we've been doing for a number of years. So all of that continues. It's really design-driven, not manufacturing-driven.
所以這確實推動了我們的業務。當然,正如我在腳本中提到的,我們還有傳統的業務碰撞測試、外部氣流等,我們多年來一直在做這些事情。所以這一切仍在繼續。它實際上是設計驅動的,而不是製造驅動的。
The other important thing to consider and realize is that car companies and automotive companies -- frankly, all industries, everyone is looking at reducing cycle time. And so as you start to reduce cycle time, what's really happening is many of our customers are recognizing that using digital techniques such as simulation allows them to achieve that reduction in cycle time. It allows them to effectively shift left.
另一個需要考慮和認識到的重要事情是汽車公司和汽車公司——坦白說,所有行業、每個人都在考慮縮短週期時間。因此,當您開始縮短週期時間時,真正發生的情況是,我們的許多客戶都認識到,使用類比等數位技術可以讓他們實現週期時間的縮短。它使他們能夠有效地向左移動。
And that shift left reduces the time that it takes to bring innovation to market faster and in a highly competitive world like automotive, for example, where you have multiple new entrances coming in as well that design cycle is of paramount importance. And that's really where we are seeing the opportunity, and that's reflected in the conversations we're having with our customers.
這種左移縮短了將創新更快推向市場所需的時間,例如,在汽車如此競爭激烈的世界中,有多個新的進入,設計週期也至關重要。這確實是我們看到機會的地方,這也反映在我們與客戶的對話中。
Hoi-Fung Wong - Research Analyst
Hoi-Fung Wong - Research Analyst
Got it. And then, Nicole, just because I don't want to be excluded from the China party. It sounds like the -- like what you guys have baked into the expectation is that these deals do come back into the pipeline as we think about '24. Is it assumed that the '23 deals fall into '24? Or should we assume that both '23, '24 don't return until fiscal '25 in terms of how you guys are embedding into your outlook?
知道了。然後,妮可,只是因為我不想被排除在中國派對之外。聽起來就像你們所期待的那樣,當我們考慮 24 世紀時,這些交易確實會重新回到管道中。是否假設「23」交易屬於「24」?或者我們應該假設「23」和「24」直到「25」財年才會回歸,就你們如何融入你們的前景而言?
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Yes. So my reference to the 2023 impact of about 2/3 timing shift and 1/3 loss of business translates to 2024 as well, right? So the nature of this process is really just kind of in extension of that sell cycle which in the current outlook we're seeing is kind of a shift of that business kind of to the right if you will. But the $10 million to $30 million of headwind that we're expecting to see next year related to this specifically, is our best estimate as to what would be the net loss in 2024.
是的。因此,我提到的 2023 年約 2/3 時間偏移和 1/3 業務損失的影響也適用於 2024 年,對嗎?因此,這個過程的本質實際上只是銷售週期的延伸,在當前的前景中,我們看到的是該業務的某種向右轉變,如果你願意的話。但我們預計明年將看到與此相關的 1000 萬至 3000 萬美元的逆風,這是我們對 2024 年淨虧損的最佳估計。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂芬·圖薩。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Can you just talk about what kind of -- is this a customer type issue in China? Or is it more general than that?
您能談談這在中國是什麼樣的客戶類型問題嗎?或者它比這更普遍?
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Well, it's -- this issue affects prospects are located in China. So that's the nature of the conversation. It's the sale of prospects who are located in China. And it's to people who are performing things like R&D and some other activities in China. So it's specifically restricted to those kinds of customers or prospects.
嗯,這個問題影響了中國的前景。這就是談話的本質。這是對位於中國的潛在客戶的銷售。是針對那些在中國從事研發和其他一些活動的人。因此,它專門限於此類客戶或潛在客戶。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
I guess so on your ACV, it looked like electronics was kind of weaker than expected. We assumed that it was kind of focused in that piece of the pie?
我猜你的 ACV 上的電子設備看起來比預期的要弱一些。我們假設它有點專注於那一塊派?
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Sorry, are you talking about the industrial -- the industry mix chart? I just want to make sure this is what you are talking or referring to?
抱歉,您是在談論工業——產業組合圖嗎?我只是想確定這就是您所說或指的內容嗎?
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Exactly, like what type of industry? Is it what I'm like trying to just wrap my head around here a little bit.
具體來說,像是什麼類型的行業?這就是我想嘗試的想法嗎?
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Yes. I would say -- so it is -- industry -- the processes, the incremental vetting processes apply to essentially prospects in China that are regardless of industry, right? And so there's additional restrictions that may be specific, but the incremental processes are agnostic across the industry. The dynamics that you're referring to, just to kind of answer that particular question.
是的。我想說——事實確實如此——行業流程、漸進式審查流程基本上適用於中國的前景,與行業無關,對嗎?因此,可能存在特定的額外限制,但增量流程在整個產業中是不可知的。您所指的動態只是為了回答該特定問題。
So when you look at those industry mix charts, those -- that relative -- those kind of sizing of the of representation by industry are all relative. So really, relative growth is more of what's driving the mix shift in those countries. And so all of our largest industries have grown but given the strong 12-month performance in automotive, that kind of drove the overall mix shift. So it's really about relative strength in automotive than any particular weakness in any other place.
因此,當你查看這些行業組合圖表時,那些相對的、按行業劃分的代表性規模都是相對的。因此,實際上,相對成長更多地推動了這些國家的結構轉變。因此,我們所有最大的行業都在成長,但考慮到汽車產業 12 個月的強勁表現,這推動了整體結構的轉變。因此,這實際上是汽車領域的相對優勢,而不是其他領域的任何特定弱點。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Right. That makes sense. And is this like ANSYS specific or is it something that they kind of cast a bit wider of a net. Obviously, there's a lot going on out there between our two countries, Rockwell had some issue, I believe. Is this really ANSYS specific?
正確的。這就說得通了。這是否像 ANSYS 特有的,或者是他們撒的網更廣泛的東西。顯然,我們兩國之間發生了很多事情,我相信羅克韋爾有一些問題。這真的是 ANSYS 特有的嗎?
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Again, I can't -- we don't know who the commerce department has engaged with because some of these conversations are private and some of these are public. So we don't really know who they're engaged with. But as I said, it -- we can see what's in front of us. And I believe it just has to do with the fact that our products are very capable and are broadly applicable across industries and use cases.
再說一遍,我不能——我們不知道商務部與誰進行了接觸,因為其中一些對話是私人的,而另一些則是公開的。所以我們真的不知道他們和誰訂婚了。但正如我所說,我們可以看到我們面前的情況。我相信這與我們的產品功能非常強大並且廣泛適用於各個行業和用例有關。
And specifically to follow on, on that point, so the incremental vetting that we're putting in place is really that. It's an incremental vetting process that just adds a certain amount of latency to the approval process. So that's really what's happening in this context.
具體來說,在這一點上,我們正在實施的增量審查確實是如此。這是一個增量審核過程,只會為審核過程增加一定的延遲。這確實是在這種情況下發生的事情。
And obviously, we're just taking what we had before, which was industry standard vetting, and we've added some additional -- an additional layer above that.
顯然,我們只是採用了先前的行業標準審查,並且我們在其之上添加了一些額外的內容。
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Charles Stephen Tusa - MD
Right. And that's why it's not -- it's 1% of ACV or whatever you want to call it right now as opposed to it being like across the board, 5% of ACV, which would be a real impairment in the ability to kind of do business over in China. Right?
正確的。這就是為什麼它不是——它是 ACV 的 1% 或者你現在想怎麼稱呼它,而不是全面的 ACV 的 5%,這對做生意的能力來說是一個真正的損害在中國。正確的?
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Correct.
正確的。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Adam Borg with Stifel.
下一個問題來自 Adam Borg 和 Stifel。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
This is Mike Richards on for Adam Borg. Maybe just on the AI innovations announced last week between semi-AI and AI Plus and then even ANSYS GPT. Maybe you guys could discuss how you guys are thinking about planning on pricing these and what kind of pricing uplift that will drive in the long term?
我是麥克理查茲 (Mike Richards) 替補亞當博格 (Adam Borg)。也許只是上週宣布的半 AI 和 AI Plus 甚至 ANSYS GPT 之間的人工智慧創新。也許你們可以討論一下你們如何考慮規劃這些產品的定價以及從長遠來看將推動什麼樣的定價上漲?
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
So let me sort of just -- since you asked the question, let me sort of explain what those are. And -- but to get to your question about pricing, some of this is still being worked out in terms of how we would -- exactly what we would price them, but I can give you some philosophy as we go through this.
既然你問了這個問題,讓我解釋一下這些是什麼。而且——但為了回答你關於定價的問題,其中一些問題仍在我們如何定價——確切地說是我們會給它們定價的問題上解決,但在我們討論這個問題時,我可以給你一些哲學。
So obviously, AIML is one of our critical pillars that we are focused on across our portfolio. In Q2, we released a beta version of our support technology called ANSYS GPT that's based on GPT4. And that's a virtual multilingual support tool that can answer customers' technical questions by retrieving and summarizing ANSYS' information. And we believe that, that will provide answers to the most frequently asked questions that customers have in a matter of seconds and obviously, it's going to be available 24/7. So that's the first area.
顯然,AIML 是我們在整個產品組合中重點關注的關鍵支柱之一。在第二季度,我們發布了支援技術的測試版,稱為 ANSYS GPT,它基於 GPT4。這是一個虛擬的多語言支援工具,可以透過檢索和總結 ANSYS 資訊來回答客戶的技術問題。我們相信,這將在幾秒鐘內為客戶最常見的問題提供答案,顯然,它將 24/7 提供服務。這是第一個區域。
The second thing that we announced last week is this new generation of products called the AI Plus products. And those are building on the AI capabilities that we have available today. So these are new products that will be packaged and priced accordingly. And these new AIs products include things like ANSYS, Granta, AI Plus, optiSLang AI Plus and these new products will incorporate and extend some of the AI features that we already have within these products.
我們上週宣布的第二件事是新一代產品,稱為AI Plus產品。這些都是建立在我們今天可用的人工智慧功能的基礎上的。因此,這些都是新產品,將進行相應的包裝和定價。這些新的人工智慧產品包括 ANSYS、Granta、AI Plus、optiSLang AI Plus 等,這些新產品將整合並擴展一些我們在這些產品中擁有的人工智慧功能。
The semi-AI technology that we talked about, this is a brand-new offering that is a cloud -- it's a cloud native AI platform that will augment our 3D physics simulation capabilities. And it's essentially one where our customers will be able to do things like design analysis optimization by using simulation results to train an AI model to predict new design configurations using deep learning techniques.
我們談到的半人工智慧技術,這是一個全新的雲端產品——它是一個雲端原生人工智慧平台,將增強我們的 3D 實體模擬能力。從本質上講,我們的客戶將能夠透過使用模擬結果訓練人工智慧模型來使用深度學習技術預測新的設計配置來執行設計分析最佳化等操作。
And so this can predict performance across design changes, geometry changes and so forth, it's really a physics-neutral technology. It applies across industry segments. And we can leverage simulation data, whether it originates from ANSYS or from anyone else for the matter. So this is, again, a new product that will be priced accordingly. The actual pricing has not been announced yet.
因此,這可以預測設計變化、幾何變化等方面的性能,這確實是一種物理中立的技術。它適用於各個行業領域。我們可以利用模擬數據,無論它來自 ANSYS 還是其他任何人。因此,這又是一款新產品,將會相應定價。實際定價尚未公佈。
Kelsey DeBriyn - VP of IR
Kelsey DeBriyn - VP of IR
Operator, we have time for one more question.
接線員,我們還有時間再問一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Our last question comes from Tyler Radke from Citi.
我們的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的泰勒拉德克 (Tyler Radke)。
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
Just wanted to follow up on the international performance. It looks like Germany, in particular, was a bit weaker. It sounded like you are seeing pretty resilient trends in autos, but wasn't sure if that was a tougher compare or just anything to call out in Europe?
只是想跟進國際表現。看起來尤其是德國隊有點弱。聽起來你看到了汽車行業相當有彈性的趨勢,但不確定這是否是一個更艱難的比較,或者只是在歐洲需要指出的事情?
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Sure. So as just one reminder on the overall revenue results that you see in the results. We saw a lot of impact from the ASC 606 accounting change and so I'm going to answer to your question specifically related to that, but also kind of try to give some broader context around ACV because, as you will recall, this quarter, ACV and revenue are highly disconnected and their Germany answer -- your Germany question is actually a prime example of the lease accounting dynamics that played out creating that year-over-year headwind.
當然。這只是您在結果中看到的整體收入結果的一個提醒。我們看到了 ASC 606 會計變更帶來的很大影響,因此我將回答您與此具體相關的問題,但也會嘗試提供有關 ACV 的更廣泛背景,因為您可能還記得,本季度, ACV 和收入高度脫節,而他們在德國的回答——你的德國問題實際上是租賃會計動態的一個典型例子,這種動態造成了逐年的逆風。
So just to use that as an example, in Q3 '22, Germany saw exceptionally robust revenue growth. Revenue growth in Germany was 102% at constant currency. Now the growth last year was a function of both strong ACV growth, but also the underlying accounting associated with the nature of the mix of transactions in that quarter. And so I think that just gives you kind of a Microcosm in Germany being a relatively larger portion of Europe. That was a dynamic that affected overall revenue growth.
舉個例子,在 22 年第三季度,德國的營收成長異常強勁。以固定匯率計算,德國營收成長 102%。現在,去年的成長既是 ACV 強勁成長的函數,也是與該季度交易組合性質相關的基礎會計的函數。所以我認為這只是給你一個德國的縮影,德國是歐洲相對較大的一部分。這是影響整體營收成長的動態。
But when you zoom out and although we don't give -- we don't typically provide ACV by geography, but EMEA had good growth in ACV in Q3 and -- which was really reflective of the region's operational stability. And just to give some kind of color to the dynamics and the underlying industry performance there, high-tech, aerospace and defense, industrial equipment industries all were strong in EMEA.
但是,當您縮小範圍時,儘管我們不提供 - 我們通常不會按地理位置提供 ACV,但 EMEA 在第三季度的 ACV 方面取得了良好的增長 - 這確實反映了該地區的運營穩定性。為了為那裡的動態和基礎產業表現增添一些色彩,高科技、航空航太和國防、工業設備產業在歐洲、中東和非洲地區都表現強勁。
The quarter was highlighted by sales to a global semiconductor manufacturer and supplier. We also saw a multiyear deal with a research and development company in the A&D industry. They provided more users within its growing simulation team to access our solutions. And then we also had a multiyear deal with the European pump manufacturer that added more global users, more products, more physics and HPC capacity, some more computation.
該季度的亮點是對全球半導體製造商和供應商的銷售。我們也看到與 A&D 行業的一家研發公司達成了多年協議。他們在不斷成長的模擬團隊中為更多用戶提供了存取我們的解決方案的機會。然後我們還與歐洲泵浦製造商達成了多年協議,增加了更多的全球用戶、更多的產品、更多的實體和 HPC 能力以及更多的運算能力。
So the revenue results are really emblematic of the dynamics that we talked about and expected in August, but the underlying ACV performance in the region is quite strong.
因此,收入結果確實象徵著我們在 8 月討論和預期的動態,但該地區的基本 ACV 表現相當強勁。
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. And just a follow-up on the long term...
好的。這很有幫助。這只是長期的後續行動......
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Yes, just to add to what Nicole was saying. I mean, I think that we would -- when we talk about -- when I talk about my own experiences with customers sort of anecdotally, as I said before, I have an option usually to talk to customers and channel partners and we're really seeing strength, as Nicole said, across multiple industries and across also the different market segments. And in particular, when I talk to channel partners who focus more at the lower end, we're seeing a lot of activity. And obviously, at our enterprise customers where we directly engage, we're seeing a lot of activity.
是的,只是為了補充妮可所說的話。我的意思是,我認為當我們談論時,當我以軼事的方式談論我自己與客戶的經歷時,正如我之前所說,我通常可以選擇與客戶和通路合作夥伴交談,我們正如妮可所說,真正看到了跨多個行業和不同細分市場的優勢。特別是,當我與更多關注低端市場的通路合作夥伴交談時,我們看到了很多活動。顯然,在我們直接參與的企業客戶中,我們看到了許多活動。
So there's a lot of design work and R&D efforts that are taking place across these industries across the world. And we believe -- and we're excited about our ability to support our customers in those spaces.
因此,世界各地的這些產業正在進行大量的設計工作和研發工作。我們相信,並且我們對我們在這些領域為客戶提供支援的能力感到興奮。
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Tyler. You had a follow-up question?
泰勒.您還有後續問題嗎?
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
Yes. I did. So just as I think about the 2024 comments and your helpful breakout of the China impact in terms of, I think, 2/3 being just delayed business. Should we think about that all happening in 2024? And then as I think about your reiteration of your long-term targets, I guess, if you could just kind of unpack the puts and takes? And do you assume the kind of have the China business normalize and get that full 2/3 through the long-term targets.
是的。我做到了。因此,正如我思考 2024 年的評論以及您對中國影響的有益突破一樣,我認為 2/3 只是延遲的業務。我們是否應該考慮一下 2024 年發生的這一切?然後,當我想到您重申的長期目標時,我想,您是否可以解開看跌期權和看跌期權?您是否認為中國業務正常化並透過長期目標實現全部 2/3?
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Nicole Anasenes - CFO & Senior VP of Finance
Yes. Yes. I mean I'd say that when you look underneath -- so as we said, we expect to initiate in 2024 -- in February in 2024 at on the model. So 10% constant currency growth excluding tuck-in M&A. Now the impact of what we're estimating to be drop out, that we are kind of overcoming in that underlying model is the $10 million to $30 million of ACV in revenue.
是的。是的。我的意思是,當你仔細觀察時,我會說,正如我們所說,我們預計在 2024 年 2 月在模型上啟動。因此,不包括併購在內,貨幣成長率為 10%。現在,我們估計會退出的影響,我們在該基礎模型中正在克服的影響是 ACV 收入 1000 萬至 3000 萬美元。
Now throughout the year, there's some shift in timing from this year to next year and next year to the year after. But kind of that just is like the permanent shift that we would expect underneath the covers. But in terms of the kind of the peer headwind, which is that we'd be wrapping on coming out of '24, it would be that $10 million to $30 million.
現在全年,從今年到明年、明年到後年,時間安排上都會有一些轉變。但這有點像是我們所期望的永久轉變。但就同行逆風而言,也就是我們在 24 年結束時所面臨的阻力,這將是 1000 萬到 3000 萬美元。
Kelsey DeBriyn - VP of IR
Kelsey DeBriyn - VP of IR
That's all the time we have today. I will turn it over to Ajei for some closing remarks.
這就是我們今天的全部時間。我將把它交給 Ajei 做一些結束語。
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Ajei S. Gopal - President, CEO & Director
Thank you, Kelsey. With our market-leading product portfolio and strong pipeline, ANSYS is well positioned to meet our commitments. I want to thank my colleagues around the world for their continued dedication to ANSYS. I want to thank our channel partners, and I want to thank, of course, our global customer base. Thank you for your time today, and have a great day.
謝謝你,凱爾西。憑藉我們市場領先的產品組合和強大的產品線,ANSYS 完全有能力履行我們的承諾。我要感謝世界各地的同事對 ANSYS 的持續奉獻。我要感謝我們的通路夥伴,當然也要感謝我們的全球客戶群。感謝您今天抽出時間,祝您有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。