Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 營收達 13 億美元,年增 7%,創歷史新高,EPS 為 2.36 美元,優於預期;毛利率 62.5%,營業利潤率 12%,均處於指引高端
    • 全年營收成長指引收斂至 6-7%,靠近區間上緣,Q4 營收預期年增 4-6%;全年營業利潤率預估 13-13.5%
    • 公司持續回購股票,Q3 回購 1 億美元,全年預計回購 4.5 億美元;盤後或同業對比未提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Hollister 品牌 Q3 銷售年增 16%,連續第十季成長,AUR 持續提升,庫存緊縮、促銷減少
      • Abercrombie 品牌 Women’s 類別帶動季節性改善,推動新品類如牛仔、外套、針織等
      • 美洲與 EMEA 地區持續成長,分別年增 7%,英國表現尤佳,受益於在地行銷與合作
      • 積極投資數位、AI、門市擴張(全年預計新開 60 間門市、40 間改裝),提升客戶體驗與營運效率
    • 風險:
      • APAC 地區銷售下滑,Q3 年減 6%,同店銷售減 12%,品牌滲透率與知名度仍待提升
      • 關稅壓力持續,Q3 毛利率受 210 bps 關稅影響,Q4 預計關稅影響 360 bps,2025 年全年約 170 bps
      • Abercrombie 品牌 Q3 銷售下滑 2%,同店銷售減 7%,AUR 雖改善但仍低於去年,轉正需觀察
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 總營收:Q3 年增 7% 至 13 億美元,創新高
    • 總同店銷售:Q3 年增 3%
    • Hollister 品牌:Q3 銷售年增 16%,同店銷售年增 15%,AUR 提升
    • Abercrombie 品牌:Q3 銷售年減 2%,同店銷售年減 7%,AUR 連續改善
    • 美洲地區:Q3 銷售年增 7%,同店銷售年增 4%
    • EMEA 地區:Q3 銷售年增 7%,同店銷售年增 2%
    • APAC 地區:Q3 銷售年減 6%,同店銷售年減 12%
    • 庫存:Q3 期末庫存成本年增 5%,單位數年增 1%,庫存結構健康
  4. 財務預測
    • 2025 全年營收預估成長 6-7%,達 49.5 億美元基礎上
    • 全年營業利潤率預估 13-13.5%,含 70 bps 訴訟收益與 170 bps 關稅成本
    • 全年 CapEx 預估約 2.25 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Abercrombie 品牌在男女品類、通路表現如何?國際市場有何觀察?
      A: Abercrombie 品牌流量正向、客戶檔案持續成長,數位與門市皆有良好參與度。國際方面,EMEA 以英國最強,德國及其他歐洲市場仍在早期階段,APAC 仍在建立品牌認知,短期波動屬預期範圍。
    • Q: Hollister 動能強勁,如何延續至 2026?
      A: Hollister 連續十季成長,男女品類與各類別均衡,AUR 持續提升、庫存緊縮,促銷減少。品牌合作(如 Taco Bell)帶動話題,進入假期動能強。
    • Q: 假期期間流量與票價(ticket)趨勢?對明年有何啟示?
      A: 假期票價維持穩定,AUR 持續改善,流量正向成長。假期後將針對春季新品進行部分提價。
    • Q: Abercrombie 品牌 Q3 男性品類表現?
      A: Women’s 帶動季節性改善,Men’s 也有明顯進步,庫存結構健康,針對牛仔、針織、外套等品類布局,對 Q4 樂觀。
    • Q: 關稅影響 Q4 與明年展望?提價與成本緩解進度?
      A: Q4 關稅影響約 6000 萬美元(360 bps),2025 年全年約 1.7 個百分點。明年春季新品將開始提價,供應鏈多元化與議價持續進行,預期 2026 年起緩解效果顯現。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Abercrombie & Fitch's third quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mo Gupta. Please go ahead.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Abercrombie & Fitch 2025 財年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)今天的會議正在錄音。此時,我謹將會議交給莫‧古普塔先生。請繼續。

  • Mohit Gupta - Investor Relations

    Mohit Gupta - Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me today on the call are Fran Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer; Scott Lipesky, Chief Operating Officer; and Robert Ball, Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we issued our third quarter earnings release, which is available on our website at corporate.abercrombie.com under the Investors section. Also available on our website is an investor presentation.

    謝謝。早安,歡迎參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有:執行長弗蘭·霍洛維茨;首席營運長史考特·利佩斯基;以及財務長羅伯特·鮑爾。今天早些時候,我們發布了第三季收益報告,該報告可在我們網站 corporate.abercrombie.com 的「投資者」專欄下查閱。我們的網站上也提供投資者簡報。

  • Please keep in mind that we will make certain forward-looking statements on the call. These statements are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations and assumptions we mentioned today. These factors and uncertainties are discussed in our reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    請注意,我們將在電話會議上發表一些前瞻性聲明。這些聲明受 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款的約束,並存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與我們今天提到的預期和假設有重大差異。這些因素和不確定因素已在我們的報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了討論。

  • In addition, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Additional details and reconciliations of GAAP to adjusted non-GAAP financial measures are included in the release and in the investor presentation issued earlier this morning.

    此外,我們將在電話會議中提及某些非GAAP財務指標。新聞稿和今天早上發布的投資者簡報中包含了更多詳細資訊以及 GAAP 與調整後的非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Fran.

    接下來,我將把電話交給弗蘭。

  • Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Mo, and thanks, everyone, for joining as we head into the important holiday season. I am happy to report our 12th consecutive quarter of growth, with sales up 7% to a record of $1.3 billion. We again delivered on the goals we outlined for the quarter, with net sales and operating margin, both at the high end of our outlook, earnings per share above our expectations and inventory levels aligned with trend.

    謝謝莫,也謝謝大家,謝謝你們與我們一起迎接這個重要的節慶季。我很高興地宣布,我們連續第 12 個季度實現成長,銷售額成長 7%,達到創紀錄的 13 億美元。我們再次實現了本季設定的目標,淨銷售額和營業利潤率均達到預期上限,每股收益高於預期,庫存水準與趨勢相符。

  • Along with these strong financial results, we repurchased $100 million worth of shares in the quarter, bringing our total to $350 million, or 9% of shares outstanding as of the beginning of the year. Our team continues to stay close to our customers while reading and reacting to the current environment. In the quarter, we made further progress on key brand, regional and foundational investments.

    除了這些強勁的財務表現外,我們本季還回購了價值 1 億美元的股票,使我們的回購總額達到 3.5 億美元,佔年初已發行股票總數的 9%。我們的團隊始終與客戶保持密切聯繫,同時密切注意並應對當前情況。本季度,我們在關鍵品牌、區域和基礎投資方面取得了進一步進展。

  • Based on third quarter momentum and our fourth quarter outlook, we are narrowing our full year sales outlook towards the top end of the range we provided in August, targeting a strong finish to 2025 on top of a record 2024. Financially, in addition to record net sales, we delivered a gross margin of 62.5% and a 12% operating margin for the quarter, both of which include an adverse tariff impact of around 210 basis points. We exceeded our outlook range on earnings per share, delivering $2.36 for the third quarter. On the regions, we saw continued growth in the Americas with net sales up 7% on balanced traffic gains across channels.

    根據第三季的成長動能和我們對第四季的展望,我們將全年銷售預期收窄至我們在 8 月給出的範圍的上限,目標是在 2024 年創紀錄的基礎上,在 2025 年取得強勁的收官。財務方面,除了創紀錄的淨銷售額外,我們本季的毛利率為 62.5%,營業利潤率為 12%,這兩項數據均包含約 210 個基點的不利關稅影響。第三季每股收益達 2.36 美元,超出預期範圍。從區域來看,美洲地區持續成長,淨銷售額成長了 7%,這得益於各通路流量的均衡成長。

  • In EMEA, total sales increased 7% with comparable sales higher by 2%. Similar to last quarter, strong sales performance in the UK, our largest country in the region, continued to be fueled by localized marketing, inventory distortions and strategic partnerships. Strength in the UK was partially offset by softness in Germany and the remainder of European markets. In APAC, net sales were down 6% with comparable sales down 12%.

    在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,總銷售額成長了 7%,可比銷售額成長了 2%。與上個季度類似,英國(該地區最大的國家)的強勁銷售業績繼續得益於在地化行銷、庫存扭曲和策略合作夥伴關係。英國市場的強勁表現部分被德國和歐洲其他市場的疲軟所抵消。在亞太地區,淨銷售額下降了 6%,同店銷售額下降了 12%。

  • Across regions, we remain excited about the significant long-term global growth opportunity for our brands through a blend of go-to-market strategies, including owned and operated, franchise, wholesale and licensing.

    我們對旗下品牌在各個地區透過自營、特許經營、批發和授權等多種市場進入策略所帶來的巨大長期全球成長機會感到興奮。

  • Turning to the brands. In line with our expectations, we made sequential improvement in Abercrombie brands. Net sales were down 2% on comparable sales down 7%. We continued to see positive cross-channel traffic to the brand and we managed inventory tightly, enabling improved AUR trends compared to the first half. The sequential improvement was led by Women's, where we had a good seasonal transition to cold weather categories across tops, bottoms and outerwear.

    接下來我們來看看各個品牌。正如我們所預期的,Abercrombie 品牌實現了穩步提升。淨銷售額下降 2%,同店銷售額下降 7%。我們持續看到品牌跨通路流量的正面成長,我們嚴格管理庫存,與上半年相比,平均銷售率趨勢有所改善。女裝引領了整體的改善,我們在上衣、褲子和外套等寒冷天氣類別中實現了良好的季節性過渡。

  • In Abercrombie, we continue to remain active in marketing, building on early fall denim and NFL campaigns with our recently announced collaboration with luxury retailer Kemo Sabe. Putting these two brands together was a great way to connect with new and existing customers offering authentically crafted leather apparel and accessories, highlighting the Western trend. Abercrombie Brands has inventory in the right place and a strong marketing plan heading into holiday.

    在 Abercrombie,我們繼續積極進行行銷活動,繼早秋牛仔系列和 NFL 推廣活動之後,我們最近宣布與奢侈品零售商 Kemo Sabe 合作。將這兩個品牌結合起來,是與新舊客戶建立聯繫的好方法,提供正宗的手工皮革服裝和配飾,突顯西部潮流。Abercrombie Brands 庫存充足,並制定了強而有力的假期行銷計劃。

  • We've opened 30 new stores through the third quarter, aiming for a total of 36 this year. We remain focused on bringing the brand back to growth by diligently executing the playbook that has delivered a double-digit CAGR on sales from 2019 on strong double-digit AUR improvement over that time.

    第三季我們新開了 30 家門市,今年的目標是總共開設 36 家。我們將繼續專注於透過認真執行既定策略,使品牌重回成長軌道。該策略自 2019 年以來實現了兩位數的銷售額複合年增長率,同時平均使用率也實現了兩位數的強勁增長。

  • This holiday, you'll see a lot of what Abercrombie is known for globally, fashion, comfort and authenticity, and you'll continue to see it expressed through newness across categories. With this combination of investment across product, voice and experience, we are aiming for Abercrombie brands to be approximately flat in the fourth quarter on net sales against a record in Q4 last year. We're excited to see that milestone within reach.

    今年假期,你會看到 Abercrombie 在全球範圍內聞名遐邇的時尚、舒適和真實性,你也會繼續看到這些特質透過各個品類的創新得以體現。透過在產品、品牌和體驗方面的投資,我們的目標是使 Abercrombie 品牌在第四季度的淨銷售額與去年第四季的創紀錄銷售額基本持平。我們很高興看到這一里程碑即將實現。

  • In Hollister, we saw exceptional growth trends continue with 16% net sales growth in the third quarter. Comparable sales were up 15% on continued strong cross-channel traffic. Both Men's and Women's contributed to growth in the quarter, and we saw balance across categories. Consistent with our Read & React model, we've been keeping inventory tight while continuing to flow in newness allowing for AUR improvement on lower promotions.

    Hollister 的業績持續保持強勁成長勢頭,第三季淨銷售額成長 16%。受持續強勁的跨通路流量影響,同店銷售額成長了 15%。本季男裝和女裝均對成長做出了貢獻,各品類之間實現了平衡。秉承我們的「閱讀與反應」模式,我們一直保持庫存緊張,同時不斷引入新品,從而在促銷力度較小的情況下提高平均售價 (AUR)。

  • Coming off a very strong back-to-school season, I was proud how the team transition to fall and into holiday. Speaking of holiday, Hollister has some exciting campaigns and collaborations planned that will highlight some must-haves for the season. We kicked off a couple of weeks ago with six college athletes co-designing special items in our Collegiate collection for football rivalry week. And you might have seen yesterday's announcement with Taco Bell wherethe brands collaborated on 90s and Y2K styles across graphics and fleece.

    經歷了非常成功的開學季後,我對團隊順利過渡到秋季和假期感到自豪。說到節日,Hollister 計劃推出一些令人興奮的宣傳活動和合作項目,重點介紹本季的一些必備單品。幾週前,我們邀請了六位大學運動員共同設計大學系列中專為橄欖球對抗週準備的特別產品。你可能已經看到了昨天 Taco Bell 發布的公告,這兩個品牌合作推出了 90 年代和 Y2K 風格的圖案和抓絨面料。

  • We are just getting started. And importantly, our team has been reading and reacting and has the right product to support sales throughout the season. We're also enhancing the Hollister brand with investments in physical retail. We are on track to open 25 new stores this year while refreshing more than 35 stores.

    我們才剛起步。更重要的是,我們的團隊一直在關注市場動態並做出反應,我們擁有合適的產品來支援整個銷售季的銷售。我們也透過投資實體零售店來提升 Hollister 品牌。我們今年計劃開設 25 家新店,同時翻新 35 多家門市。

  • The theme across our brand portfolio and company is consistent. We remain on offense. From both a brand and regional perspective, we are investing in marketing, stores and talent to support sustainable long-term growth. We also continue to make opportunistic investments in digital, technology and our infrastructure to improve the agility and speed needed to support our growing global business. These tech investments have the power to enhance the entire customer journey, especially when paired with AI.

    我們整個品牌組合和公司的主題是一致的。我們將繼續保持進攻態勢。從品牌和區域角度來看,我們正在投資行銷、門市和人才,以支持可持續的長期成長。我們也將繼續抓住機遇,在數位化、技術和基礎設施方面進行投資,以提高我們不斷成長的全球業務所需的敏捷性和速度。這些技術投資能夠提升整個客戶體驗,尤其是在與人工智慧結合使用時。

  • We recently deployed AI agents in customer service to improve the experience while driving scale and efficiency. And we're very excited about a new partnership we're kicking off this week with PayPal and Cymbio, one of our technology partners in marketplace sales, that will enable agentic commerce in AI answer engines like Perplexity, where customers can seamlessly complete transactions directly within their AI conversation without leaving the chat.

    我們最近在客戶服務中部署了人工智慧代理,以改善客戶體驗,同時提高規模和效率。我們非常高興本週將與 PayPal 和 Cymbio(我們在市場銷售領域的技術合作夥伴之一)啟動一項新的合作關係,這將使 Perplexity 等 AI 回答引擎能夠實現代理商務,客戶無需離開聊天即可直接在 AI 對話中無縫完成交易。

  • As our business continues to evolve, we're making future focused investments to deliver for customers and strengthen our operating model. And for us, that's really the story of 2025. More than three quarters in, I am proud of how the team has worked through this year, responding to the dynamic tariff environment and evolving with our customers. We are fully prepared for the holiday season having used these past months and quarters to test and learn and build confidence in our assortment and brand positioning. We've also continued to keep inventory tight with the goal of reducing promotions and clearance selling to mitigate some portion of the tariff cost. With our holiday plans in place, we expect to deliver top-tier profitability and earnings per share, reflecting the consistency of our model.

    隨著業務的不斷發展,我們正在進行著眼於未來的投資,以更好地服務客戶並加強我們的營運模式。對我們來說,這就是 2025 年的故事。在過去四分之三的時間裡,我為團隊在這一年的表現感到自豪,他們積極應對不斷變化的關稅環境,並與客戶一起成長。我們已為假期季節做好了充分準備,利用過去的幾個月和幾個季度對我們的產品系列和品牌定位進行了測試和學習,並建立了信心。我們也持續保持庫存緊縮,目標是減少促銷和清倉銷售,以減輕部分關稅成本。鑑於我們的假期計劃已經就緒,我們預計將實現一流的盈利能力和每股收益,這反映了我們模式的穩定性。

  • And with that, I'll hand it over to Robert.

    然後,我就把它交給羅伯特了。

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thanks, Fran, and good morning, everyone. Recapping Q3, we delivered record net sales of $1.3 billion, up 7% to last year on a reported basis at the high end of the range we provided in August. Comparable sales for the quarter were up 3%, and we saw a benefit of approximately 50 basis points from foreign currency.

    謝謝你,弗蘭,大家早安。回顧第三季度,我們實現了創紀錄的淨銷售額 13 億美元,按報告數據計算,比去年同期增長 7%,處於我們 8 月份給出的預期範圍的高端。本季同店銷售額成長了 3%,外匯匯率帶來了約 50 個基點的收益。

  • By region, net sales increased 7% in the Americas, 7% in EMEA, partially offset by a 6% decline in APAC. On a comparable sales basis, Americas was up 4%, EMEA was up 2% and APAC was down 12%. Across regions, the spread from net sales to comparable sales was driven by net new store openings and third-party channel performance. EMEA also benefited from favorable foreign currency.

    按地區劃分,美洲淨銷售額增長 7%,歐洲、中東和非洲地區淨銷售額增長 7%,但亞太地區淨銷售額下降 6%,部分抵消了這一增長。以可比較銷售額計算,美洲地區成長 4%,歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長 2%,亞太地區下降 12%。從各地區來看,淨銷售額與同店銷售額之間的差距主要受新店開業數量及第三方通路業績的影響。歐洲、中東和非洲地區也受惠於有利的匯率。

  • On the brands, Abercrombie Brands net sales declined 2% with comparable sales down 7%. Consistent with our third quarter outlook, the sales decline was primarily due to lower AUR, but the AUR decline was less than the first half of the year. Hollister Brands net sales grew 16% on comparable sales growth of 15% with both unit growth and AUR improvement from lower promotions. The comp to net sales spread for Abercrombie brands in the quarter was driven by third-party channel performance, along with net store openings. I'll cover the rest of our results on an adjusted non-GAAP basis.

    各品牌方面,Abercrombie Brands 的淨銷售額下降了 2%,同店銷售額下降了 7%。與我們對第三季的預期一致,銷售額下降主要是由於平均使用率下降,但平均使用率的下降幅度小於上半年。Hollister Brands 淨銷售額成長 16%,同店銷售額成長 15%,這得益於銷售成長和平均營業額 (AUR) 的提高,而促銷活動減少也帶來了改善。本季 Abercrombie 旗下品牌的同店銷售額與淨銷售額之間的差距主要受第三方通路業績以及新店開幕數量的影響。我將以調整後的非GAAP準則為基礎,介紹我們剩餘的績效。

  • Operating margin of 12% of sales was at the top end of the outlook range we provided in August, delivering operating income of $155 million, compared to $179 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 15% of sales on adjusted EBITDA of $194 million compared to $219 million last year. The 280 basis point decline in operating margin from Q3 2024 was driven primarily by 210 basis points of tariff expense included in cost of sales.

    營業利益率為銷售額的 12%,處於我們 8 月給出的預期範圍的上限,營業收入為 1.55 億美元,而去年同期為 1.79 億美元。本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為銷售額的 15%,調整後 EBITDA 為 1.94 億美元,而去年同期為 2.19 億美元。2024 年第三季營業利潤率下降 280 個基點,主要是因為銷售成本中包含了 210 個基點的關稅支出。

  • In addition, as we forecasted in August, third quarter marketing was up 100 basis points from the prior year. This was partially offset by leverage in general and administrative expense on lower payroll and incentive compensation. The tax rate for the quarter was below our outlook at 29% driven by outperformance to expectations in EMEA. Net income per diluted share was above our outlook at $2.36, compared to $2.50 last year.

    此外,正如我們在 8 月預測的那樣,第三季行銷支出比上年同期增加了 100 個基點。工資和激勵性薪酬的降低,部分抵銷了一般及行政費用的減少。由於 EMEA 地區的業績超出預期,本季稅率低於我們預期的 29%。每股攤薄淨收益為 2.36 美元,高於我們先前的預期,而去年同期為 2.50 美元。

  • Moving to the balance sheet. We exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $606 million and liquidity of approximately $1.06 billion. We also ended the quarter with marketable securities of approximately $25 million. For the quarter, we repurchased $100 million worth of shares, ending the quarter with $950 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization.

    接下來查看資產負債表。本季末,我們持有現金及現金等價物 6.06 億美元,流動資金約 10.6 億美元。本季末,我們持有的有價證券約為 2,500 萬美元。本季度,我們回購了價值 1 億美元的股票,季度末我們目前的股票回購授權額度還剩 9.5 億美元。

  • Year-to-date, we repurchased $350 million in shares totaling 9% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the year. We ended the third quarter in a clean current inventory position with cost up 5% and units up around 1% and have seen freight and other unit cost mix normalize.

    今年迄今為止,我們已回購了價值 3.5 億美元的股票,佔年初已發行股票總數的 9%。第三季末,我們的庫存狀況良好,成本上漲了 5%,銷量上漲了約 1%,運費和其他單位成本組成已趨於正常化。

  • Shifting to the outlook. We entered the fourth quarter with momentum, and we are narrowing to the upper end of the full year sales expectations we provided in August. We continue to reflect tariffs and mitigation consistent with our second quarter call commentary and the team continues to find cost efficiencies through vendor discussions as we plan 2026.

    轉向展望。我們帶著強勁勢頭進入了第四季度,並且正在逐步接近我們在 8 月給出的全年銷售預期上限。我們繼續按照第二季電話會議評論中所述的關稅和緩解措施進行調整,團隊繼續透過與供應商的討論來提高成本效益,為 2026 年制定計劃。

  • For the full year, we now expect net sales growth to be in the range of 6% to 7% from $4.95 billion in 2024. We've narrowed the range to reflect third quarter performance and for expected fourth quarter sales. We currently anticipate 60 basis points of favorable foreign currency in the outlook. We continue to expect full year GAAP operating margin in the range of 13% to 13.5%. As a reminder, this range includes the impact of the $38.6 million benefit from litigation settlement or around 70 basis points of sales. Also, the assumed tariffs included in the operating margin carry a cost impact of around $90 million for 2025, or 170 basis points of sales.

    我們現在預計,全年淨銷售額將成長 6% 至 7%,從 2024 年的 49.5 億美元成長至 2024 年的 49.5 億美元。我們縮小了範圍,以反映第三季的業績和對第四季度銷售額的預期。我們目前預計外匯市場將有 60 個基點的利多因素。我們繼續預計全年GAAP營業利潤率在13%至13.5%之間。提醒一下,該範圍包括訴訟和解帶來的 3,860 萬美元收益,相當於銷售額的 70 個基點左右。此外,計入營業利潤率的假定關稅對 2025 年的成本影響約為 9,000 萬美元,相當於銷售額的 170 個基點。

  • We are forecasting a tax rate around 30%. For earnings per share, we expect diluted weighted average shares of around $48 million, which incorporates the anticipated impact of 2025 share repurchases. Combined with the tax rate, we expect net income per diluted share in the range of $10.20 to $10.50. For clarity, the $38.6 million benefit included in our outlook carries a favorable impact of $0.59 per share. For capital allocation, we continue to expect capital expenditures of approximately $225 million.

    我們預測稅率約為30%。對於每股收益,我們預計稀釋加權平均股數約為 4,800 萬美元,其中包括 2025 年股票回購的預期影響。結合稅率,我們預計稀釋後每股淨收益將在 10.20 美元至 10.50 美元之間。為便於理解,我們預期中包含的 3,860 萬美元收益將帶來每股 0.59 美元的有利影響。在資本配置方面,我們仍然預期資本支出約為 2.25 億美元。

  • On stores, we continue to expect to deliver around 100 new experiences, including 60 new stores and 40 right sizes or remodels. We also expect to be net store openers with our 60 new stores outpacing around 20 anticipated closures. At the current sales and operating margin outlook, we are targeting around $450 million in share repurchases for the year, subject to business performance, share price and market conditions.

    在門市方面,我們預計仍將推出約 100 種全新體驗,包括 60 家新店和 40 家規模合適的門市或改造門市。我們預計新開店數量將淨增加 60 家,超過預計關閉的 20 家左右。根據目前的銷售額和營業利潤率預期,我們計劃今年回購約 4.5 億美元的股票,具體金額將視業務表現、股價和市場狀況而定。

  • For the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect net sales to be up 4% to 6% to Q4 2024 level of $1.6 billion. We expect operating margin to be around 14%. We continue to expect lower cost of goods sold from freight at around 150 basis points of sales for the quarter. We also continue to expect $60 million of tariff impact net of mitigation efforts or around 360 basis points.

    我們預計 2025 年第四季淨銷售額將比 2024 年第四季的 16 億美元成長 4% 至 6%。我們預計營業利潤率約為 14%。我們預計本季因運費造成的銷售成本將下降約 150 個基點。我們也繼續預計,扣除緩解措施後,關稅影響淨額將達到 6,000 萬美元,約 360 個基點。

  • Operating expense will be around last year as a percentage of sales. We see opportunities to incrementally invest in marketing, but this will be largely offset by leverage in other areas. We expect a Q4 tax rate around 30%. We expect net income per diluted share in the range of $3.40 to $3.70 with diluted weighted average shares expected to be around $47 million, including the anticipated impact of around $100 million in share repurchases for the quarter.

    營業費用佔銷售額的比例將與去年大致相同。我們看到了逐步加大行銷投入的機會,但這很大程度上將被其他領域的槓桿作用所抵消。我們預計第四季稅率在30%左右。我們預計每股攤薄淨收益在 3.40 美元至 3.70 美元之間,攤薄加權平均股數預計約為 4,700 萬美元,其中包括預計本季約 1 億美元的股票回購影響。

  • To close things out, we entered the fourth quarter ready to compete with inventory aligned with trend and the right composition. We have great momentum having delivered against expectations these past three quarters on both top and bottom lines. Our brands are in great shape with Abercrombie brands making sequential improvement and Hollister brands taking share with impressive growth. We remain on offense, investing in marketing through key brand collaborations and partnerships and with store expansion and digital enhancements that enable us to win in the long term. We look forward to a great holiday selling season. And we thank our teams around the globe for putting us in reach of record sales for fiscal 2025.

    最後,我們以符合趨勢和正確結構的庫存進入第四季度,並做好了參與競爭的準備。過去三個季度,我們在營收和利潤方面均超越預期,發展勢頭強勁。我們的品牌發展勢頭良好,Abercrombie 品牌持續進步,Hollister 品牌也以令人矚目的成長迅速搶佔市場份額。我們將繼續保持進攻態勢,透過關鍵品牌合作與夥伴關係、門市擴張和數位化提升等方式加大行銷投入,從而確保長期成功。我們期待假日銷售旺季的到來。我們要感謝全球各地的團隊,正是他們的努力使我們有望在 2025 財年實現創紀錄的銷售額。

  • And with that, operator, we are ready for questions.

    好了,操作員,我們準備好回答您的問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group.

    Dana Telsey,Telsey顧問集團。

  • Dana Telsey - Analyst

    Dana Telsey - Analyst

  • So nice to see the sequential progress. Congratulations. Fran, as you think about the Abercrombie brand and the plan it's tracking to, what did you see by category, Men's and Women's? Does it differ by channel? How are you seeing the progress of the brand? And then just overall, international, any puts and takes on the different regions and countries?

    很高興看到循序漸進的進展。恭喜。Fran,當你思考 Abercrombie 品牌及其發展計畫時,你從男裝和女裝兩個類別分別看到了什麼?不同頻道之間有差別嗎?您如何看待該品牌的進展?然後,從整體來看,從國際角度來看,大家對不同地區和國家有什麼看法和見解嗎?

  • Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Dana, so super excited about the results we just put up for the third quarter. I mean total company 12th consecutive quarter of growth, top line is 7%, comps at 3%. So the Abercrombie brand specifically continues to be strong. This is evidenced by a few things. Our traffic is positive. Our customer file continues to grow. We're seeing nice engagement in our digital and our stores channels, excited about where we're headed for the fourth quarter.

    達娜,我對我們剛剛公佈的第三季業績感到非常興奮。我的意思是,公司整體連續第 12 季成長,營收成長 7%,同店銷售額成長 3%。因此,Abercrombie品牌依然保持強勁勢頭。這一點可以從以下幾點得到證實。我們的客流量是正面的。我們的客戶檔案持續成長。我們在數位通路和實體店通路都看到了良好的互動,對第四季的發展前景感到興奮。

  • The team has been busy at work all year testing and learning and really reacting to what's happening, heading into the fourth quarter, well inventoried indenim, fleece and sweaters very strong categories for us. As I mentioned, also 30 new stores to date, six more opening up this quarter. So we're fully prepared to compete for the fourth quarter.

    團隊全年都在忙於測試、學習,並對正在發生的事情做出積極反應。進入第四季度,庫存充足的牛仔布、抓絨衫和毛衣是我們非常強勁的類別。正如我之前提到的,目前已有 30 家新店開業,本季還將再開設 6 家。所以我們已經做好充分準備,迎接第四季的挑戰。

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. Dana, I'll jump in here on the international side. So obviously, we continue to be really excited about the opportunities that we see for EMEA. We have invested in this region. We've got the infrastructure in place to take our brands to the market.

    是的。達娜,我來從國際方面發表一下看法。顯然,我們對 EMEA 地區的機會依然感到非常興奮。我們已在該地區進行投資。我們已經具備了將我們的品牌推向市場的必要基礎設施。

  • This quarter, when you think about puts and takes, UK results were really strong. That's where we've been investing most to improve awareness and service our customers there. We're still in pretty early innings here in Germany and more broadly in the other European countries. We don't really have much of a presence or awareness. So we would anticipate seeing some shorter-term fluctuations here as we ramp those brands. But obviously, we see that as opportunity to go after.

    本季度,從買賣雙方的角度來看,英國的業績非常強勁。我們一直在那裡投入最多資金,以提高人們對我們當地客戶的認知度和服務水準。在德國,乃至更廣泛的其他歐洲國家,我們仍處於疫情的早期階段。我們幾乎沒有任何存在感或知名度。因此,隨著我們逐步擴大這些品牌的規模,我們預計會出現一些短期波動。但很顯然,我們認為這是一個值得追求的機會。

  • On the APAC side of the house, very similar dynamics here. The market is huge. Our business is relatively small. We're focused on building our brand awareness there and building a stronger presence. So again, not surprising for us to see some shorter-term fluctuations.

    亞太地區的情況也非常相似。市場規模龐大。我們公司規模相對較小。我們正致力於提升我們在當地的品牌知名度,並建立更強大的市場影響力。所以,出現一些短期波動並不令人意外。

  • But overall, really confident in the global opportunities that we see for our brands. Obviously committed to getting closer to those customers, deploying our playbook and ultimately taking these brands to market and growing this business longer term.

    但總的來說,我們對旗下品牌在全球的發展機會充滿信心。顯然,我們致力於拉近與這些客戶的距離,運用我們的策略,最終將這些品牌推向市場,並實現業務的長期成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Corey Tarlowe, Jefferies.

    科里·塔洛,傑富瑞。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Analyst

  • Fran, the Hollister momentum has been really impressive and it seemed like the back-to-school momentum is continuing into holiday based on what we're seeing in stores. So just curious on how you expect to continue to build on that momentum as we look ahead into 2026.

    Fran,Hollister 的發展勢頭非常強勁,根據我們在商店裡看到的情況來看,返校季的銷售勢頭似乎會延續到假期季節。所以,我很好奇您打算如何延續這種發展勢頭,並展望2026年。

  • Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Corey, yes, wow, what a year we're having with Hollister. Congrats to that entire team, super excited to grow the business another 16% on last year's 14%, the tenth consecutive quarter of growth. We are seeing balanced growth, Corey, across genders, across categories. We're seeing our AUR growing on lower discounts.

    Corey,是啊,哇,我們和 Hollister 一起度過了多麼精彩的一年啊!恭喜整個團隊,非常興奮地看到公司業務在去年的 14% 的基礎上又成長了 16%,這是連續第十個季度實現成長。科里,我們看到的是均衡成長,這種成長體現在各個性別和各個品類上。我們發現,在折扣力道降低的情況下,我們的平均使用率(AUR)反而成長了。

  • The customer file is growing. Our traffic is strong. Most importantly, we're holding our inventory tight, so we can really Read & React to the business. We've got great momentum heading into holiday seasons. Honestly, there's almost every category is working, which is super, super excited. I'm sure you saw the announcement yesterday, this Taco Bell partnership for Cyber Monday, we're excited about. So lots of good things happening as we head into the fourth quarter.

    客戶檔案正在不斷成長。我們的流量很大。最重要的是,我們嚴格控制庫存,以便能夠真正了解業務動態並做出反應。我們正朝著假日季邁進,勢頭強勁。說實話,幾乎每個類別都在運行,這真的太令人興奮了。我相信你們昨天都看到了公告,我們非常興奮地宣布塔可鐘將在網路星期一推出合作項目。所以,進入第四季度,有很多好事正在發生。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Analyst

  • That's great. And then just a follow-up for Robert. How best to think about traffic versus ticket as we head into holiday? And then any comments on what that could mean for next year as well?

    那太棒了。然後,再給羅伯特一個後續問題。假期將至,我們該如何看待交通擁擠和罰單之間的關係?那麼,對於明年而言,這又意味著什麼呢?您對此有何看法?

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. I mean, Corey, so across our brands, when we think about tickets, I guess touching on tickets real quick, haven't taken any sort of meaningful tickets. We've been talking about this for a couple of quarters now through the holiday season, it's a nice interplay as you think about this holiday season, the best way to drive traffic and to engage with that consumer is going to be through promotions and pricing. So our tickets are pretty stable. We have started to think through and take tickets here post-holiday.

    是的。我的意思是,Corey,就我們旗下所有品牌而言,當我們想到門票時,我想快速談談門票,我們還沒有獲得任何有意義的門票。在過去的幾個季度裡,我們一直在討論這個問題,尤其是在假期季節期間。考慮到這個假期季節,吸引客流和與消費者互動的最佳方式是透過促銷和定價。所以我們的票務系統相當穩定。我們已經開始考慮假期後在這裡購票。

  • So you'll start to see some ticket increases across the assortment here with spring deliveries. But the good news is the AURs are growing. We made sequential improvement from spring into fall across actually both brands, Hollister and A&F and we're seeing nice positive traffic. So traffic is growing across both Hollister and A&F and across channels, which is great to see, and AURs are headed in the right direction. So customer files are growing, customers are engaged. Our teams are locked in with those customer bases. We've got the right inventory here in our stores to compete for the holiday. So we're excited to push through into Q4.

    因此,隨著春季到貨,您會看到這裡各種商品的價格開始上漲。但好消息是,AUR 正在成長。從春季到秋季,Hollister 和 A&F 這兩個品牌都實現了持續成長,我們看到了良好的客流量。因此,Hollister 和 A&F 的流量以及各個管道的流量都在增長,這令人欣喜,平均銷售比率 (AUR) 也朝著正確的方向發展。因此,客戶檔案不斷成長,客戶參與度也很高。我們的團隊與這些客戶群緊密合作。我們門市備足了庫存,足以應付假日購物季的競爭。所以我們很高興能夠順利進入第四季。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

    馬修‧博斯,摩根大通。

  • Matthew Boss - Analyst

    Matthew Boss - Analyst

  • So Fran, at the Abercrombie brand, could you speak to the cadence of trends that you saw over the course of the third quarter and elaborate on trends that you're seeing so far in November? And then Robert, could you speak to the composition of inventory across both brands and gross margin puts and takes to consider for the fourth quarter?

    那麼,Abercrombie 品牌的 Fran,您能否談談您在第三季度觀察到的趨勢節奏,並詳細說明您在 11 月至今觀察到的趨勢?羅伯特,您能否談談這兩個品牌的庫存組成以及第四季度需要考慮的毛利率波動?

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So, I'll jump in here. So we obviously had a really strong third quarter, delivering our 12th consecutive quarter of growth, reaching the top end of our guide. Abercrombie, obviously, sequential improvement here. Hollister continues to grab share with that customer. We're excited about the momentum that we're carrying into Q4.

    是的。那麼,我就插一句了。顯然,我們第三季業績非常強勁,實現了連續第 12 季的成長,達到了我們預期目標的上限。顯然,Abercrombie 在這方面有了循序漸進的改進。Hollister 持續贏得該類顧客的青睞。我們對進入第四季的這股勢頭感到非常興奮。

  • In terms of the outlook, I think we're being reasonable, responsible here. We're happy with how the quarter has started. But as you know, Matt, all the volumes ahead of us here, and we're ready to compete. As it relates to the inventory side of the house, inventory is in good shape, up 5% year-over-year at cost with tariffs being about 3% of that. Units are pretty clean here and in control at up 1%, you know how we operate.

    就前景而言,我認為我們這樣做是合理且負責任的。我們對本季開局的情況感到滿意。但正如你所知,馬特,我們面前還有很多工作要做,我們已經準備好迎接挑戰。就庫存方面而言,庫存狀況良好,以成本計算年增 5%,關稅約佔其中的 3%。這裡的設備都很乾淨,控制率保持在 1% 以內,你知道我們的運作方式。

  • We're going to keep units tight here and aligned with our forward growth expectations by brand. We didn't provide a brand breakout, but as you'd expect, Hollister units are up more than the A&F units. And again, both brands are positioned to chase to close out the year. So we feel good about where we sit from an inventory standpoint.

    我們將維持產能穩定,並根據各品牌的未來成長預期進行調整。我們沒有提供品牌細分數據,但正如你所預料的那樣,Hollister 的銷量成長幅度大於 A&F。再次強調,這兩個品牌都已做好準備,爭取在年底前取得佳績。所以從庫存角度來看,我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。

  • On the margin front, gross margin puts and takes here, down about 260 basis points year-over-year in Q3. 210 basis points of that is tariffs. We did see a benefit from freight. It was a smallish benefit from freight and AUR. And then we had a couple of offsets from third-party channels and some inventory reserves to keep ourselves clean headed into holiday.

    在利潤率方面,毛利率的波動導致第三季年減約 260 個基點。其中 210 個基點是關稅。我們確實從貨運中獲益。這是從貨運和AUR中獲得的微薄收益。然後,我們還透過第三方管道獲得了一些抵消額度,並儲備了一些庫存,以確保我們在假期來臨之際保持良好的庫存狀態。

  • So that's Q3. And then Q4, we'll see some of those themes continue, Matt. You'll see about 200 -- or about 360 basis points of impact from tariffs from that roughly $60 million. And then the freight tailwind, as we've been talking about for the past couple of quarters will continue here, and you'll see about 150 basis points of tailwind here for Q4.

    這就是第三季。馬特,到了第四季度,我們會看到其中一些主題繼續發展。你會看到,這大約 6000 萬美元的關稅將產生大約 200 到 360 個基點的影響。然後,正如我們過去幾個季度一直在談論的那樣,貨運順風將繼續,您將在第四季度看到大約 150 個基點的順風。

  • And then you know how we operate from an AUR standpoint. We've been on this great multiyear journey of AUR growth here. We had a great holiday last season, so we're going to come into the fourth quarter assuming AURs hold. So assuming AUR is flat here as we think about the go forward.

    這樣你就能了解我們從 AUR 的角度是如何運作的了。我們已經經歷了多年AUR快速成長的偉大歷程。我們上個季度假期過得很愉快,所以我們假設平均使用率(AUR)能夠維持下去,進入第四季。因此,假設 AUR 保持平穩,我們展望未來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Marni Shapiro, Retail Tracker.

    Marni Shapiro,零售追蹤器。

  • Marni Shapiro - Analyst

    Marni Shapiro - Analyst

  • Congratulations on another great quarter, best of luck for the holidays in case I forget. Can you talk a little bit about the collaborations you've been doing, the NFL, the NCAA, but you also have Kemo Sabe you did crocs. I'm curious, are these all global collaborations? Or are these specific to the US? And if they're not global, will you do global? And as we think about the brands going forward into '26, I think these pops of excitement are fun. Are they bringing new customers into your store? And should we see an increase or similar cadence into '26?

    恭喜你們又一個季度取得佳績,也祝你們假期一切順利,如果我忘了說的話。可以談談你最近參與的合作計畫嗎?例如 NFL、NCAA,還有你和 Kemo Sabe 合作的 Crocs。我很好奇,這些都是全球合作計畫嗎?還是這些情況僅限於美國?如果他們不是全球性的,你會做全球性的嗎?當我們展望 2026 年的品牌發展時,我認為這些令人興奮的小插曲很有趣。他們是否為你的店家帶來了新顧客?那麼,到 2026 年,我們是否會看到成長或類似的節奏?

  • Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Marni, the clubs are interesting. Our goal with our collaborations, honestly, is a real authentic branding moment. You know we talked about this a lot. We stay close to our customer and we listen to them, what's important to them, what's happening in their life moments. That's how we make these decisions to do these collaborations, so they are planned accordingly.

    瑪尼,這些俱樂部很有意思。坦白說,我們合作的目標是打造一個真正意義上的品牌形象時刻。你知道我們之前多次討論過這個問題。我們與客戶保持密切聯繫,傾聽他們的心聲,了解對他們來說重要的事情,以及他們生活中正在發生的事情。我們就是這樣決定開展這些合作的,所以都會相應地進行計劃。

  • The NFL has been very exciting. Yes, it's definitely bringing in new customers. Our goal with that with the partnership was about brand awareness and customer acquisition. There's a big crossover with their fandom and our customer base, and we listened to the customer. They told us several years ago how important football fandom was to them, and we took that and tested our way into it and have seen a nice success with it.

    NFL聯賽一直都非常精彩。是的,它確實帶來了新客戶。我們此次合作的目標是提高品牌知名度和獲取客戶。他們的粉絲群和我們的客戶群有很大的重合度,我們聽取了客戶的意見。幾年前他們告訴我們,足球迷文化對他們來說有多重要,我們採納了他們的意見,並嘗試進入這個領域,結果取得了不錯的成功。

  • Kemo Sabe is another great example. Western was happening. Our consumer was responding to it. We went to an authority in the business and made a terrific collaboration. The Taco Bell, we're super excited about for Cyber Monday. So as far as 2026 goes, we will continue to listen to our customer. We'll look for authentic moments to make sure that we stay close to them, and we'll continue on this journey.

    Kemo Sabe是另一個很好的例子。西方正在發生。我們的消費者對此做出了積極回應。我們找到了一位業內權威人士,並進行了非常棒的合作。我們對塔可鐘在網路星期一的促銷活動感到非常興奮。所以,展望2026年,我們將繼續傾聽客戶的意見。我們會尋找那些真實的瞬間,確保我們與他們保持親密關係,我們將繼續這段旅程。

  • Scott Lipesky - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Scott Lipesky - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Marni, it's Scott. Just to add on here. It really speaks to where the brands are today. Each brand is in such a strong position, which is enabling us to partner with other strong and great brands. So like Fran said, it's a great way to authentically connect to our customers and lots more ahead and it's been fun for the brands.

    瑪尼,我是史考特。補充一點。這充分反映了這些品牌如今的現狀。每個品牌都處於非常強大的地位,這使我們能夠與其他強大而優秀的品牌建立合作關係。正如弗蘭所說,這是與我們的客戶建立真正聯繫的好方法,未來還有更多可能,而且對品牌來說也很有趣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alex Straton, Morgan Stanley.

    Alex Straton,摩根士丹利。

  • Katy Delahunt - Analyst

    Katy Delahunt - Analyst

  • This is Katy Delahunt on for Alex Straton. Just thinking about the Abercrombie banner, I know you've all talked about sales growth being about flat for the fourth quarter. But what is the time line you're thinking about for return to sales growth and then even comp as well?

    這裡是 Katy Delahunt 代 Alex Straton 為您報道。說到 Abercrombie 品牌,我知道你們都討論過第四季的銷售成長基本上持平。但您預計何時才能恢復銷售成長,甚至實現同店銷售成長?

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So Katy, it's Robert. So obviously, delivering sequential improvement here in Q3, that's important for us. The team has been focused on that customer. We're seeing improved product execution. Inventory is clean. And as Fran mentioned, we're placing our bets here for the holiday here in sweaters, fleece, denim. So we're happy about where the brand sits, heading into holiday.

    是的。凱蒂,我是羅伯特。顯然,在第三季度實現持續改進對我們來說非常重要。團隊一直專注於這位客戶。我們看到產品執行力有所提升。庫存已清理乾淨。正如弗蘭提到的那樣,我們預計假期流行毛衣、抓絨衫和牛仔服。所以,我們對品牌在即將到來的假期季節所處的地位感到滿意。

  • Marketing is resonating new collaborations that we just talked about with Marni here earlier. Those are great brand moments. They're driving traffic. Our customer file is growing. We've got strong engagement across both stores and DTC platforms here. So we're excited about this holiday season. We're aiming to continue to progress here, hold that brand flat against last year's record, which sets us up well for next year.

    行銷正在推動我們剛才和瑪尼討論的全新合作。這些都是很棒的品牌時刻。它們正在吸引車流。我們的客戶檔案正在不斷成長。我們在實體店和DTC平台都獲得了很高的用戶參與度。所以我們對這個假期充滿期待。我們的目標是繼續取得進步,保持品牌與去年持平,這將為明年奠定良好的基礎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mauricio Serna, UBS.

    Mauricio Serna,瑞銀集團。

  • Mauricio Serna - Analyst

    Mauricio Serna - Analyst

  • Great. First, on the marketing front, could you elaborate a little bit more about what you're doing across each brand, the plans for marketing this quarter, as you mentioned in the guidance for Q4 that assumes that there's more investment happening. And then maybe on the Abercrombie brand performance in Q3, could you break down like how the comps reflected AUR versus units or total sales? That would be very helpful.

    偉大的。首先,在行銷方面,您能否詳細說明您在每個品牌上正在採取的措施,以及本季的行銷計劃?正如您在第四季度業績指引中所提到的,該季度預計將會有更多投資。那麼,關於 Abercrombie 品牌在第三季的表現,您能否詳細分析同店銷售額與平均單價、銷售量或總銷售額之間的關係?那將非常有幫助。

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes, Mauricio, let me jump in here real quick. Obviously, I'm not going to share a ton in terms of our specific marketing plans. We've got some exciting collaborations that we have either have announced in terms of like Taco Bell and you'll see the campaigns kind of continue as we move through the holiday time period. It's been effective. Our traffic is up, as we've mentioned a couple of times.

    是的,毛里西奧,讓我插一句。顯然,我不會透露太多關於我們具體行銷計劃的資訊。我們有一些令人興奮的合作項目,例如與 Taco Bell 的合作,我們已經宣布了這些合作項目,隨著假期的臨近,你會看到這些推廣活動繼續進行。它很有效。正如我們之前多次提到的,我們的流量增加了。

  • We're pretty intentional with our marketing here. We're obviously focused on our brand building, driving customer engagement and ultimately supporting both near term and long term. So it's not all just what are we going to see this quarter, but we're really building these brands for the long-term growth.

    我們在行銷方面非常注重策略。我們顯然專注於品牌建立、提升客戶參與度,並最終支持近期和長期發展。所以,我們關注的不僅是本季的業績,而是真正著眼於品牌的長期發展。

  • Obviously, looking at performance as we work to optimize that spend and where we see value, we're going to lean in. And we have two strong healthy brands, both exactly where we want them to be, and so we're going to keep our foot on the gas here. As it relates to A&F, Q3 performance, you heard us talk about comps there, the down 7%. AUR was sequentially improved. So we did see improvement there. So if you think about the KPIs and the puts and takes, we've seen traffic on the positive side. AUR was still down, but sequentially improved here from the first half into the third quarter.

    顯然,在努力優化支出並尋找價值所在時,我們會專注於績效,並加大投入。我們擁有兩個強大的健康品牌,它們都達到了我們預期的目標,所以我們將繼續加強發展它們。關於 A&F 第三季業績,你們也聽到了我們談到同店銷售額下降 7% 的情況。AUR逐步改善。所以,我們確實看到了這方面的進步。所以,如果你考慮關鍵績效指標和投入產出比,我們已經看到流量方面出現了正面的變化。AUR 仍然偏低,但從上半場到第三節逐漸有所改善。

  • And then we had a little bit of pressure here on conversion as well, but conversion also headed in the right direction. So nice to see improvements in conversion, improvements in AUR and continued engagement from our customers with positive traffic.

    然後我們在轉換率方面也面臨一些壓力,但轉換率也朝著正確的方向發展。很高興看到轉換率、平均用戶訪問量 (AUR) 和客戶參與度持續提升,流量也持續成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rick Patel, Raymond James.

    Rick Patel,Raymond James。

  • Rick Patel - Equity Analyst

    Rick Patel - Equity Analyst

  • Congrats on the progress. I was hoping you could double-click on the expectations around SG&A. I know marketing is going to increase, but you touched on being able to mitigate some of that pressure through other areas. So if you can expand on that, that would be great. And then second, just on comps, wondering if there's any variability performance to flag in the US due to the weather or any regional differences.

    恭喜你取得進展。我希望您能雙擊查看有關銷售、一般及行政費用的預期。我知道行銷投入將會增加,但你也提到了可以透過其他途徑來緩解這部分壓力。如果你能詳細闡述一下,那就太好了。其次,就比賽而言,我想知道美國是否存在因天氣或任何地區差異而導致的比賽表現差異。

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So quick on the SG&A side of things, yes, we'll see a little bit of increased marketing investment year-over-year. We've obviously been leaning into this throughout the first three quarters of the year. That will continue, but at a slightly slower clip here in Q4. Q4, obviously, with the sales growth, you're going to see some expense leverage on the G&A side of the house. We've been delivering that throughout the entire year.

    是的。所以,就銷售、一般及行政費用而言,是的,我們會看到行銷投入比前一年略有增加。顯然,在今年前三個季度裡,我們一直在推動這項工作。這種情況還會持續,但第四季增速會稍慢一些。顯然,隨著第四季銷售額的成長,一般及行政費用方面將會出現一些支出槓桿效應。我們全年都在這樣做。

  • And given the midpoint of our guide, we wouldn't expect a ton of leverage or deleverage in total at the midpoint of that 4% to 6%. We'll see as we have the rest of the -- as we have all year, as we outperform on the top line, you might see some leverage roll through.

    鑑於我們指南的中點,我們預期在 4% 到 6% 的中點,槓桿或去槓桿的總量不會很大。我們會看看接下來的情況——就像我們今年以來一直在做的那樣,隨著營收表現優異,你可能會看到一些槓桿效應顯現出來。

  • But again, we're going to be balanced in our investment approach and where we see opportunities to continue to invest in this business for the longer term, we will. Nothing really to call out from a regional standpoint. We've got a really broad store fleet. So weather in one area, it kind of offsets across the board. Might there be a day or a week here in there that you start to see little blips based on weather events, when you think about the broader quarter, it kind of all works itself out, and it's been pretty consistent for us across the regions.

    但是,我們仍然會採取平衡的投資方式,如果我們看到有機會對這項業務進行長期投資,我們就會繼續投資。從區域角度來看,沒有特別值得一提的事。我們擁有非常廣泛的門市網路。所以一個地區的天氣狀況會對其他地區產生一定的影響。或許在某一天或某一周,由於天氣原因,會出現一些小波動,但從整個季度來看,一切都會好起來的,而且我們各個地區的情況都相當穩定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Janine Stichter, BTIG.

    Janine Stichter,BTIG。

  • Janine Stitcher - Analyst

    Janine Stitcher - Analyst

  • Congrats on the progress. One more question about Abercrombie. It sounds like a lot of the improvement sequentially was led by Women. Can you just elaborate on what's going on in the Men's side. If I recall, the comparisons there maybe weren't as challenging as what you had in the first half with Abercrombie. So just help us understand what's going on with that side of the business?

    恭喜你取得進展。關於Abercrombie還有一個問題。聽起來,這些進步很大程度上是由女性推動的。能詳細說明一下男子組的狀況嗎?如果我沒記錯的話,那裡的比較可能沒有你上半場和 Abercrombie 的比較那麼具有挑戰性。所以請您幫我們了解一下公司那邊的業務狀況?

  • Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Janine, it's Fran. Yes, led by Women's but also seeing nice sequential improvement in Men's as well. Again, inventories are clean, super excited about where we are for the fourth quarter. Team has been busy at work, testing and learning all season, so -- or all year pardon me, heading into the fourth quarter to make sure our inventories are where we want them to be, focused on categories like denim, fleece, and sweaters. So we feel good about the fourth quarter, heading into a big week, right, excited for seeing all the excitement out there for Black Friday and ready to compete.

    珍妮,我是弗蘭。是的,女子組的進步最為顯著,但男子組的進步也相當可觀。庫存狀況良好,我們對第四季的前景感到非常興奮。球隊整個賽季(或更準確地說,是全年)都在忙於工作、測試和學習,進入第四季度,以確保我們的庫存達到我們想要的水平,重點關注牛仔布、抓絨和毛衣等類別。所以我們對第四季度充滿信心,即將迎來重要的一周,對吧?我們很興奮地看到黑色星期五的火爆場面,並準備好迎接競爭。

  • Janine Stitcher - Analyst

    Janine Stitcher - Analyst

  • And then maybe one for Robert, just on the tariffs, I think you said $60 million in Q4 net of mitigation. Any initial thoughts on just how to think about that in the first half of next year as you proceed with more mitigation efforts?

    然後也許可以問羅伯特一個問題,關於關稅,我想你說過第四季度扣除緩解措施後淨額為 6000 萬美元。對於明年上半年如何應對這個問題,以及在推進更多緩解措施的過程中,您有什麼初步想法嗎?

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So we've talked quite a while, Janine, around our sourcing footprint. We've been obviously at work at this for quite a long time, starting way back in tariffs, 1.0. We've got a really well diversified sourcing footprint here. We source from over a dozen countries, which obviously gives us a benefit both from a cost negotiation standpoint as well as speed to market, which is obviously core to our model here. I think it's important for us to take a step back real quick and think about how we're entering this next chapter of tariffs.

    是的。珍妮,我們已經就我們的採購佈局進行了相當長時間的討論。顯然,我們在這方面已經努力了很長時間,從關稅1.0時代就開始了。我們在這裡擁有非常多元化的採購佈局。我們從十幾個國家採購,這顯然為我們帶來了成本談判和上市速度的優勢,而上市速度顯然是我們模式的核心。我認為我們有必要迅速退後一步,思考我們將如何進入關稅的下一個階段。

  • We're coming at this from a position of strength. We're coming off of 15% operating margins last year to go along with record net sales. The teams have obviously been active. We've got a proven playbook here. So they're leveraging the playbook.

    我們佔據了優勢地位。去年我們的營業利益率為 15%,同時淨銷售額也創下歷史新高。各隊顯然都很活躍。我們有一套行之有效的方案。所以他們正在運用既定策略。

  • They're looking at country of origin footprint as well as finding expense efficiencies. And we've touched on this earlier. But while we haven't moved tickets broadly, through the holiday we are taking targeted price increases here for the spring. So that inventory will start delivering here post-holiday. We've done all of that as we've kind of been navigating 2025, and we've delivered record sales for the first three quarters of the year. We're positioned to do the same for the fourth quarter. And we've continued to invest in this business and return cash to shareholders.

    他們不僅關注原產國足跡,還尋求提高成本效益的方法。我們之前也提到過這一點。雖然我們沒有大範圍地調整票價,但透過假期,我們將針對春季票價進行有針對性的漲價。因此,這批庫存將在節日後開始運抵這裡。我們在應對 2025 年挑戰的過程中完成了所有這些工作,並在今年前三個季度實現了創紀錄的銷售額。我們已做好準備,在第四季也做到這一點。我們持續投資這項業務,並向股東返還現金。

  • So bought back 350 million shares year-to-date, on track to do another 100 million here in the fourth quarter. So we're doing all this, all while delivering 13% to 13.5% operating margins despite this 170 basis points of tariff impact. So the company is strong. We feel like we're operating and executing at a high level. We'll detail a lot of the components out and the magnitude of some of the stuff for 2026 when we get into our next call. But suffice it to say that we're confident in our ability to navigate this environment. And obviously, our goal is to meaningfully offset these tariff headwinds longer term.

    今年迄今已回購 3.5 億股,預計第四季將再回購 1 億股。因此,儘管受到 170 個基點的關稅影響,我們仍然實現了 13% 至 13.5% 的營業利潤率。所以這家公司實力雄厚。我們感覺我們的營運和執行水準都很高。我們將在下次電話會議上詳細介紹許多組成部分以及 2026 年一些事項的規模。但總而言之,我們對自身應對這種環境的能力充滿信心。顯然,我們的目標是從長遠角度切實抵消這些關稅不利因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Janet Joseph Kloppenburg, JJK Research Associates.

    珍妮特‧約瑟夫‧克洛彭堡 (Janet Joseph Kloppenburg),JJK 研究助理。

  • Janet Kloppenburg Joseph - Analyst

    Janet Kloppenburg Joseph - Analyst

  • Congratulations on the upside. I wanted to ask a few questions. I'll give them to you right now. The tariff impact will be greater in the first quarter than the fourth quarter, Robert? I'm not sure on that. And the price increases, when do you expect those to be complete, like what we see a big bump in the first quarter and then you'll be done. Maybe you could talk to that cadence.

    恭喜你取得好成績。我想問幾個問題。我現在就給你。羅伯特,關稅的影響在第一季會比第四季更大嗎?我不太確定。價格上漲方面,您預計何時完成?例如我們預期第一季會大幅上漲,然後就結束了。或許你可以跟上那種節奏。

  • And on cadence plan, I thought that the assortments that Abercrombie started to get better in mid-October and continued. And I'm wondering if you saw some response from the consumer on that unless I'm wrong. And then the fourth question is just on promo levels. What you saw in the third quarter year-over-year, what you experienced in the third quarter? And what's your thinking about for the fourth quarter?

    至於節奏計劃,我認為 Abercrombie 的產品系列從 10 月中旬開始變得更好,並且一直保持著這種勢頭。我想知道你是否收到了消費者對此的任何回饋,除非我弄錯了。第四個問題是關於晉升等級的。與去年同期相比,您在第三季看到了什麼?您在第三季經歷了什麼?那你對第四季有什麼計畫?

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • All right, Janet.

    好的,珍妮特。

  • Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Where do you want to start, Robert? Do you want to start to take the tariff one?

    羅伯特,你想從哪裡開始?你想開始學習關稅相關知識嗎?

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes, let's just keep the tariff conversation going here a little bit. So haven't quantified anything related to 2026. But as you think about how this is going to cadence out Janet, we would expect that a lot of our mitigation tactics, which we've been working at for the last nine months here. Those will start to take hold heading into 2026. So the hope here and our confidence level and obviously, the pricing adjustments that we've made, which I guess is your second question. Those will start to show up here with spring deliveries. So think late December and into January, you'll start to see those tickets go up.

    是的,我們不妨繼續討論一下關稅問題。所以還沒有對 2026 年相關的任何事情進行量化。但當你思考這將如何逐步淘汰 Janet 時,我們預計我們過去九個月一直在努力實施的許多緩解策略將會奏效。這些趨勢將在2026年開始顯現。所以,我們在這裡抱持著希望,也充滿信心,當然,我們也做了價格調整,我想這就是你的第二個問題。這些商品會隨著春季的到來而陸續到貨。所以,預計從12月下旬到1月,票價就會開始上漲。

  • And that will just kind of work through as the assortments and the newness flows through into the quarter. As you think about vendor negotiations and all those pieces and parts, that will also start to impact the first quarter here in 2026. So expectation would be that we would see some relief off of that Q4 tariff headwind of 360 basis points.

    隨著各種新品陸續上市,這種情況會逐漸改善。當你考慮到供應商談判以及所有這些細節時,這些也會在 2026 年第一季開始產生影響。因此,我們預計第四季 360 個基點的關稅不利因素將有所緩解。

  • Janet Kloppenburg Joseph - Analyst

    Janet Kloppenburg Joseph - Analyst

  • (multiple speakers) Yes, promos, and then Fran can talk to the A&F assortment. Go ahead,

    (多人發言)是的,促銷,然後弗蘭可以和 A&F 的產品系列談談。前進,

  • Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Robert Ball - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So from a promo standpoint, we feel good about the cadence that we've been operating under. We've obviously got a track record here of pulling back on promotions and improving AURs here wherever we can. AURs did see sequential improvements from front half into back half across the brands. Hollister is continuing to grow units on lower discounting with higher AURs.

    是的。所以從推廣的角度來看,我們對目前的推廣節奏感到滿意。顯然,我們一直以來都有減少晉升和盡可能提高平均工作效率(AUR)的記錄。各品牌的平均使用率(AUR)均呈現從上半年到下半年的連續改善趨勢。Hollister在折扣力道降低、平均售價提高的情況下,銷售量持續成長。

  • So headed into the fourth quarter, we're confident in our promotional plans. We've got the flexibility, and we've got the reactivity to adjust to demand as we see it come through. We're looking to hold those AURs flat for Q4.

    因此,進入第四季度,我們對我們的促銷計劃充滿信心。我們具備靈活性和反應能力,能夠根據不斷變化的需求進行調整。我們希望第四季AUR保持不變。

  • And like we do always, we'll come in every day. We'll see if we can pull back on a day of promos here, go a little bit shallower there. But it's been a nice formula for us with this multiyear AUR growth, and we're just going to keep -- we're going to keep executing that playbook.

    像往常一樣,我們每天都會來。我們來看看能不能減少一天的促銷活動,稍微降低一下力道。但多年來,這套方法一直很適合我們,實現了平均用戶訪問量的成長,我們將繼續進行——我們將繼續執行這套策略。

  • Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And then just real quick on the last piece of that question. So I'm very excited to have announced that we made the progress that we committed to at the beginning of the year that we're seeing sequential improvement in Abercrombie, and that's really across the board in categories.

    然後,就這個問題的最後一部分,我快速回答。因此,我非常高興地宣布,我們實現了年初做出的承諾,Abercrombie 的業績正在穩步提升,而且各個類別都取得了顯著進步。

  • So we're heading into the fourth quarter. We've committed to having clean inventories, and that's where we are. We feel really well positioned, Janet, for the fourth quarter. We are expecting to be -- our goal is to be approximately flat for the fourth quarter. That's on top of a record fourth quarter for last year. So we're happy with the start. The customer is resilient. Our file is growing, as I've said before, our traffic is positive, and we're ready to compete for the fourth quarter.

    現在我們即將進入第四季。我們致力於保持庫存清潔,而我們也確實做到了。珍妮特,我們感覺自己為第四季做好了非常充分的準備。我們預計—我們的目標是第四季基本上保持穩定。這還是在去年第四季創紀錄業績的基礎上取得的。所以我們對這個開局很滿意。顧客適應力很強。正如我之前所說,我們的文件正在成長,我們的流量是正面的,我們已經準備好在第四季競爭。

  • Janet Kloppenburg Joseph - Analyst

    Janet Kloppenburg Joseph - Analyst

  • You're talking about A&F, Fran.

    弗蘭,你說的是A&F公司。

  • Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Janet, I'm talking total company, but yes, with A&F specifically, we committed to sequential improvement, and that's what we have delivered with a goal of approximately being flat for the fourth quarter.

    Janet,我指的是整個公司,但沒錯,就 A&F 部門而言,我們致力於持續改進,而我們也實現了這一目標,目標是在第四季度保持大致持平。

  • Janet Kloppenburg Joseph - Analyst

    Janet Kloppenburg Joseph - Analyst

  • Do you feel like the challenges that you faced in merchandising in the first half at A&F are now behind you?

    你是否覺得在A&F公司上半年遇到的商品銷售方面的挑戰現在已經過去了?

  • Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. We committed to getting clean. The opportunities in the first half, which we talked about on both of those calls are really the opportunity that the inventory was much more balanced between sale clearance and regular price. That was something that we didn't really have in 2024. And that's what drove the reduced AUR. As Robert mentioned, we've made sequential improvement in the AUR as we continue to see the customer responding to the newer product.

    是的。我們決心改掉壞習慣。我們在上半年的兩次電話會議中都談到了機會,那就是清倉甩賣和正價商品的庫存更加平衡。那是我們在2024年所不具備的。這就是導致 AUR 下降的原因。正如羅伯特所提到的,隨著客戶對新產品的持續回饋,我們對 AUR 進行了持續改進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Fran for any closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題了。我想把電話交還給弗蘭,請她做總結發言。

  • Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Fran Horowitz - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right. Thanks, everyone. Just wishing you all a happy holiday season, and we look forward to updating you soon.

    好的。謝謝大家。祝大家節日快樂,我們期待盡快與大家分享最新消息。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

    感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。祝大家今天過得愉快。