Andersons Inc (ANDE) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Andersons 2025 third-quarter earnings conference call. My name is Joe, and I will be your coordinator for today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I will now hand the presentation to your host for today, Mr. Mike Hoelter, Vice President, Corporate Controller and Investor Relations. Please proceed.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加安德森公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。我叫喬，我將擔任你們今天的協調員。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次會議將進行錄音，以便重播。現在我將把演講交給今天的主持人，公司副總裁兼財務總監和投資者關係負責人邁克·霍爾特先生。請繼續。

Thanks, Joe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for the Andersons third-quarter earnings call. We have provided a slide presentation that will enhance today's discussion. This webcast is being recorded, and the recording and the supporting slides will be made available on the investors page of our website shortly. Please direct your attention to the disclosure statement on slide 2 as well as the disclaimers in the press release related to forward-looking statements. Certain information discussed today constitutes forward-looking statements that reflect the company's current views with respect to future events, financial performance, and industry conditions.

謝謝喬。大家早安，感謝各位參加安德森公司第三季財報電話會議。我們準備了一份投影片簡報，希望能為今天的討論增添內容。本次網路直播正在錄製，錄影及相關投影片很快就會在本公司網站的投資人專頁上發布。請將注意力集中在第 2 頁的揭露聲明以及新聞稿中與前瞻性陳述相關的免責聲明。今天討論的某些資訊構成前瞻性陳述，反映了公司目前對未來事件、財務表現和行業狀況的看法。

These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially as a result of many factors, which are described in the company's reports on file with the SEC. We encourage you to review these factors. This presentation and today's prepared remarks contain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the GAAP to non-GAAP measures are included within the appendix of this presentation. On the call with me today are Bill Krueger, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Valentine, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. I will now turn the call over to Bill.

這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險和不確定因素的影響。實際結果可能因多種因素而與預期有重大差異，這些因素已在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中進行了描述。我們建議您仔細考慮這些因素。本次簡報和今日的發言稿包含非公認會計準則財務指標。本簡報的附錄中包含了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的調整表。今天和我一起通話的是總裁兼執行長比爾·克魯格，以及執行副總裁兼財務長布萊恩·瓦倫丁。在我們發言完畢後，我們將樂意回答各位的問題。現在我將把通話轉給比爾。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining this call to discuss our third-quarter results and outlook for the remainder of 2025. This quarter represents the first reporting period since we completed the purchase of the minority share in our ethanol plants at the end of July, supporting strategic growth in renewable fuels. In the third quarter, we recognized income for 45Z tax credits on our share of gallons produced and sold to date in 2025. As we move into 2026, we are continuing to make investments to further improve plant production efficiency for ethanol and co-products, lower carbon intensity, and to grow our renewable feedstocks merchandising, all of which are part of our stated strategy.

謝謝你，麥克，大家早安。感謝您參加本次電話會議，共同探討我們第三季的業績以及 2025 年剩餘時間的展望。本季是自 7 月底完成對乙醇工廠少數股權的收購以來的第一個報告期，此舉支持了我們在再生燃料領域的策略性成長。第三季度，我們確認了 2025 年迄今生產和銷售的加侖數中，我們應佔份額的 45Z 稅收抵免收入。展望 2026 年，我們將繼續投資，進一步提高乙醇和副產品的工廠生產效率，降低碳排放強度，並擴大再生原料的銷售，所有這些都是我們既定策略的一部分。

In Agribusiness, we are executing on our strategy to selectively invest in facility expansions and improvements to support our customer base. We have talked previously about two significant long-term construction projects that we expect to have fully operational in 2026. They include the addition of soybean meal export capacity and other operational improvements at our Port of Houston facility and the addition of a mineral processing plant at our Carlsbad, New Mexico transload facility.

在農業綜合企業方面，我們正在執行我們的策略，即選擇性地投資於設施擴建和改進，以支持我們的客戶群。我們之前討論過兩個重要的長期建設項目，預計將於 2026 年全面投入營運。其中包括在休士頓港設施增加豆粕出口能力和其他營運改進，以及在新墨西哥州卡爾斯巴德轉運設施增加一家礦物加工廠。

We are also investing additional growth capital in our premium ingredient business at our Mansfield, Illinois location to meet customer demand for cleaned corn being used in the chip, tortilla, and pet food markets. Once again, our renewables business had a solid quarter with higher production and yields supported by strong demand. However, corn and production costs were higher than the prior year. We expect to see a reduction in the price of corn as we move through harvest. In agribusiness, we had improved year-over-year fertilizer results with increased volume and margin.

為了滿足薯片、玉米餅和寵物食品市場對清潔玉米的需求，我們還在位於伊利諾伊州曼斯菲爾德的工廠對優質原料業務投入了額外的成長資金。我們的再生能源業務本季表現穩健，在強勁需求的支撐下，產量和收益均有所提高。然而，玉米和生產成本都高於前一年。我們預計隨著收割工作的進行，玉米價格將會下降。在農業綜合企業方面，我們的化肥銷售業績逐年提高，銷售量和利潤均有所成長。

The ag cycle remains in a trough due to abundant domestic supply and uncertainty around trade policy resulting in limited export trade flows for some commodities. We remain focused on supporting our customers in the current environment. We continue to evaluate potential growth opportunities within our strategy and expect that more M&A opportunities may come to market because of the current economic pressures. Next, Brian will discuss our quarterly results.

由於國內供應充足以及貿易政策的不確定性，導致部分商品出口貿易流量有限，農業週期仍處於低谷。在當前環境下，我們將繼續專注於為客戶提供支援。我們將繼續評估我們策略中的潛在成長機會，並預期由於當前的經濟壓力，市場上可能會出現更多併購機會。接下來，布萊恩將討論我們的季度業績。

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. We're now turning to our third-quarter results on slide number 5. In the third quarter of 2025, the company reported net income attributable to The Andersons of $20 million or $0.59 per diluted share and adjusted net income of $29 million or $0.84 per diluted share. This compares to adjusted net income of $25 million or $0.72 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2024. Revenues increased slightly with the addition of Skyland despite overall lower commodity prices. Gross profit declined due to challenging ag fundamentals, combined with higher input costs in renewables. Expenses also increased with the majority relating to the addition of Skyland.

謝謝你，比爾，大家早安。現在我們來看投影片5，內容是我們的第三季業績。2025 年第三季度，該公司報告歸屬於安德森家族的淨利潤為 2,000 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.59 美元；調整後淨利為 2,900 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.84 美元。相比之下，2024 年第三季調整後的淨收入為 2,500 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.72 美元。儘管大宗商品價格整體走低，但隨著 Skyland 的加入，收入略有增長。由於農業基本面充滿挑戰，加上再生能源投入成本上升，毛利下降。支出也有所增加，其中大部分與收購 Skyland 有關。

Adjusted pretax earnings were $31 million for the quarter compared to $35 million in 2024, with the decline coming from agribusiness. This was partially offset by the net company impact of 45Z tax credits of $9 million, which included a cumulative catch-up for various costs to achieve as well as incentives. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $78 million compared to $97 million in 2024. Our effective tax rate varies each quarter based primarily on tax credits earned and the amount of income or loss attributable to non-controlling interests. In addition, in the current quarter, we eliminated certain reserves against uncertain tax positions. We now expect our full-year adjusted effective tax rate to be in the range of 15% to 18%. Next, we'll move to slide 6 to discuss cash, liquidity, and debt. We generated cash flow from operations before changes in working capital of $68 million in the third quarter of 2025 compared to $86 million in the third quarter of 2024. This continues to demonstrate our ability to generate positive cash flows throughout the ag cycle. Our readily marketable grain inventories continue to be well in excess of our short-term debt, and we ended the quarter with a cash balance of $82 million. Next, we'll take a look at capital spending and long-term debt on slide number 7. Third-quarter capital spending was $67 million compared to $38 million in 2024, with the increased attributable to spending on long-term growth projects as well as normal maintenance capital on the addition of the Skyland Grain assets.

本季調整後稅前收益為 3,100 萬美元，而 2024 年預計為 3,500 萬美元，下降主要來自農業綜合企業。45Z 稅收抵免對公司淨影響為 900 萬美元，部分抵消了上述影響，其中包括為實現目標而累積的各種成本以及激勵措施。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 7,800 萬美元，而 2024 年預計為 9,700 萬美元。我們的實際稅率每季都會有所不同，主要取決於所獲得的稅收抵免以及歸屬於非控制權益的收入或虧損金額。此外，在本季度，我們取消了針對不確定稅務事項的某些準備金。我們現在預計全年調整後實際稅率將在 15% 至 18% 之間。接下來，我們將轉到第 6 張投影片，討論現金、流動性和債務。2025 年第三季度，我們在營運資本變動前產生的經營活動現金流為 6,800 萬美元，而 2024 年第三季為 8,600 萬美元。這持續證明了我們在整個農業週期中創造正現金流的能力。我們易於銷售的糧食庫存仍然遠遠超過我們的短期債務，本季末我們的現金餘額為 8,200 萬美元。接下來，我們將在第 7 張投影片中了解資本支出和長期債務。第三季資本支出為 6,700 萬美元，而 2024 年為 3,800 萬美元，成長主要歸因於長期成長項目的支出以及 Skyland Grain 資產新增後的正常維護資本。

We continue to take a disciplined, responsible approach to capital spending, which we expect will be approximately $200 million for the year, excluding acquisitions. Our long-term debt-to-EBITDA is approximately 2 times, which remains well below our stated target of less than 2.5 times. We continue to have a balance sheet with significant capacity to support further growth investments even after the $425 million in cash paid to acquire the full ownership of our ethanol plants during the third quarter. We are evaluating additional capital investments, including projects to improve efficiency and increase capacity at our existing facilities as well as further M&A opportunities that align with our growth strategy. Next, we'll move on to a review of each of our businesses, beginning with Agribusiness on slide 8. The Agribusiness segment reported adjusted pretax income attributable to the company of $2 million compared to $19 million in the third quarter of 2024. We completed wheat harvest during the quarter, and we're pleased with the volumes and quality in both the Eastern and Western grain belts. We earned wheat carry income in the third quarter and are positioned for continued space income. However, similar to the first half of the year, oversupplied grain markets and global trade uncertainty negatively impacted our grain asset locations for other commodities. Farmers remained hesitant to sell at current prices and corn harvest delays resulted in limited inventory builds in the third quarter. In addition, customers continue to make short-term purchasing decisions, reducing our merchandising opportunities.

我們將繼續採取嚴謹負責的資本支出方式，預計今年的資本支出約為 2 億美元，不包括收購支出。我們的長期債務與 EBITDA 比率約為 2 倍，遠低於我們設定的低於 2.5 倍的目標。即使在第三季支付了 4.25 億美元現金收購了我們乙醇工廠的全部所有權之後，我們的資產負債表仍然具有強大的能力來支持進一步的成長投資。我們正在評估額外的資本投資，包括提高現有設施效率和增加產能的項目，以及符合我們成長策略的進一步併購機會。接下來，我們將逐一回顧我們的各項業務，首先從第 8 頁的農業綜合企業開始。農業綜合企業部門報告稱，歸屬於公司的調整後稅前收入為 200 萬美元，而 2024 年第三季為 1,900 萬美元。本季我們完成了小麥收割，對東部和西部糧食產區的產量和品質都感到滿意。我們在第三季獲得了小麥倉儲收入，並有望繼續獲得倉儲收入。然而，與上半年類似，糧食市場供應過剩和全球貿易的不確定性對我們在其他商品上的糧食資產配置產生了負面影響。農民仍然不願以當前價格出售，玉米收割延遲導致第三季庫存增加有限。此外，顧客繼續做出短期購買決定，減少了我們的商品銷售機會。

Finally, our fertilizer business benefited from increased margins and volume in this typically quiet quarter as producers focus on grain harvest. We continue to evaluate opportunities to optimize our portfolio and integrate our former Trade and Nutrient business segments as well as Skyland. During the third quarter, we made the decision to exit a few underperforming businesses that no longer align with our strategy, which led to some additional write-downs. We continue to review our portfolio, which could result in further changes going forward. Agribusiness had adjusted EBITDA of $29 million in the third quarter compared to $45 million in 2024. Moving to slide 9. Renewables had another solid quarter, generating adjusted pretax income attributable of $46 million compared to $26 million in the third quarter of 2024. Included in the third-quarter segment results are year-to-date 45Z tax credits of $20 million.

最後，由於生產商專注於糧食收割，本季通常是淡季，而我們的化肥業務卻受益於利潤率和銷售的成長。我們將繼續評估優化產品組合、整合原始貿易和營養品業務部門以及 Skyland 的機會。第三季度，我們決定退出一些業績不佳、不再符合我們策略的業務，這導致了一些額外的資產減記。我們將繼續審查我們的投資組合，這可能會導致未來進一步的變化。第三季農業綜合企業的調整後 EBITDA 為 2,900 萬美元，而 2024 年預計為 4,500 萬美元。切換到第9張投影片。再生能源業務又迎來了一個穩健的季度，調整後的稅前收入為 4,600 萬美元，而 2024 年第三季為 2,600 萬美元。第三季分部業績中包含今年迄今的 45Z 稅收抵免 2,000 萬美元。

Our ethanol plants continue to perform well with increased yields for both ethanol and corn oil. Ethanol board crush was similar to last year, but higher Eastern corn basis and natural gas costs impacted profitability. Corn oil prices improved, while feed values remain challenged.

我們的乙醇工廠持續良好運轉，乙醇和玉米油的產量均增加。乙醇板壓榨量與去年相似，但東部玉米基差和天然氣成本上漲影響了獲利能力。玉米油價格回升，但飼料價格仍面臨挑戰。

As Bill mentioned, third-quarter results include two months of our full ownership of the ethanol plants, which added $12 million of pretax earnings, including the value of tax credits relating to August and September. Renewables had adjusted EBITDA of $67 million in the third quarter compared to $63 million last year. And with that, I'll turn things back over to Bill for some comments about our outlook.

正如比爾所提到的，第三季業績包括我們完全擁有乙醇工廠的兩個月，這增加了 1,200 萬美元的稅前利潤，其中包括與 8 月和 9 月相關的稅收抵免價值。第三季再生能源業務調整後 EBITDA 為 6,700 萬美元，去年同期為 6,300 萬美元。接下來，我將把發言權交還給比爾，讓他對我們的前景發表一些看法。

Thanks, Brian. In our Renewables segment, fourth quarter demand has remained consistent with 2025 exports expected to reach record volumes. The recent rally in corn futures has reduced board crush. However, corn basis has retreated to harvest values, and we are filling our space. With the fall maintenance shutdown safely behind us, our plants are set up well for strong fourth-quarter production. We have approved additional capital focused on further increasing yields for both ethanol and corn oil.

謝謝你，布萊恩。在我們的再生能源領域，第四季需求保持穩定，預計 2025 年出口量將達到創紀錄水準。近期玉米期貨價格上漲，減少了板材壓榨。然而，玉米基差已回落至收穫價，我們正在填補空缺。秋季檢修停產已順利完成，我們的工廠已做好充分準備，迎接強勁的第四季生產。我們已批准追加資金，用於進一步提高乙醇和玉米油的產量。

We will continue to invest in these well-maintained assets, looking for incremental opportunities to improve efficiency, increase capacity, and lower the carbon intensity of our ethanol. Our expected Q4 production should enable us to generate additional 45Z tax credits, resulting in $10 million to $15 million of EBITDA after accounting for the incremental qualification expenses. Looking ahead, the rate at which we generate 45Z tax credits is expected to increase based on the guidelines effective for 2026 through 2029. As we mentioned previously, we are preparing for the opportunity to sequester carbon on site at our Clymers, Indiana production facility. The Class VI well permit filed on our behalf continues to move through regulatory review processes. Once this project is approved and operational, we will further reduce the carbon intensity score of the ethanol, enabling us to generate additional tax credits.

我們將繼續投資這些維護良好的資產，尋找提升效率、增加產能和降低乙醇碳排放強度的增量機會。我們預計第四季度的產量將使我們能夠獲得額外的 45Z 稅收抵免，扣除新增的資格費用後，EBITDA 將達到 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元。展望未來，根據 2026 年至 2029 年生效的指導方針，我們產生 45Z 稅收抵免的速度預計將會增加。正如我們之前提到的，我們正在為在印第安納州克萊默斯生產設施現場封存碳的機會做準備。我們提交的 VI 類油井許可證申請仍在監管審查過程中。一旦該項目獲得批准並投入運營，我們將進一步降低乙醇的碳強度評分，從而獲得額外的稅收抵免。

Our Agribusiness segment is focused on wrapping up the harvest for 2025, with soybeans nearly completed, Western US corn harvest at an estimated 80% complete and the Eastern crop an estimated 70% completed, there are pockets of harvest that are behind these levels due to higher-than-normal rainfall. Corn yield expectations are coming down from late summer estimates due to less than ideal finishing conditions in some areas, but we still anticipate record production across the grain belt. Clarity on trade policy and tariffs will reduce market uncertainties and should provide merchandising and sales opportunities. This, combined with the larger corn and wheat crop providing elevation and space income, would allow for better results in the next few quarters. We welcome the positive direction of the trade discussions and we'll closely monitor details, which should emerge over the next few months. Without this clarity, markets are expected to remain challenged through the first half of 2026. Fertilizer activity in the fourth quarter is expected to be at higher margins, but volumes may be challenged if farmers delay purchases because of continued uncertainty. We remain very focused on integration activities in the Agribusiness segment as well as the completion of our previously announced growth projects. We will continue to invest in our safety practices and culture, particularly around assets newer to our portfolio. As mentioned earlier, with the near-term macro challenges in US agriculture markets, we will continue to optimize our portfolio of businesses and the enterprise organizations that support them to extract more value for the shareholder. We believe that the current environment is causing others to do the same, and we'll look at opportunities to achieve growth through acquisitions where we might be a better owner. I want to point out that cash generated through our operations and the variety of tax credits in our Renewables business is expected to provide us with additional dry powder for continued reinvestment in both Renewables and Agribusiness.

我們的農業綜合企業部門正專注於完成 2025 年的收割工作，大豆收割已接近完成，美國西部玉米收割預計已完成 80%，東部作物收割預計已完成 70%，但由於降雨量高於正常水平，部分地區的收割進度落後於這些地區。由於部分地區生長後期條件較不理想，玉米產量預期較夏末的估計值有所下調，但我們仍預期整個糧食帶將迎來創紀錄的產量。貿易政策和關稅的明朗化將減少市場的不確定性，並應提供商品銷售機會。這一點，再加上玉米和小麥產量增加帶來的地形和空間收入，將使未來幾季取得更好的結果。我們歡迎貿易談判朝著正面方向發展，並將密切關注未來幾個月內應該會公佈的細節。如果缺乏這種明確性，預計市場在 2026 年上半年仍將面臨挑戰。預計第四季度化肥業務的利潤率將更高，但如果農民因持續的不確定性而推遲購買，銷售可能會受到挑戰。我們將繼續高度重視農業綜合企業領域的整合活動，以及完成我們先前宣布的成長項目。我們將繼續加大對安全措施和文化的投入，尤其是在我們投資組合中較新的資產方面。如前所述，鑑於美國農業市場近期面臨的宏觀挑戰，我們將繼續優化我們的業務組合以及支持這些業務的企業組織，以為股東創造更多價值。我們認為，當前的環境正在促使其他人也這樣做，我們將尋找透過收購實現成長的機會，在那些我們可能成為更好所有者的情況下。我想指出，我們透過營運產生的現金以及再生能源業務中獲得的各種稅收抵免，預計將為我們提供額外的資金，用於繼續對再生能源和農業綜合企業進行再投資。

With the strength of our balance sheet and the desire to grow, we expect to evaluate opportunities within our existing facility footprint as well as acquisitions that fit our financial and strategic criteria. Last quarter, I shared with you a conversion of our run rate 2026 financial target to EPS of $4.30. We anticipate reaching that target with improved Agribusiness results, increased ethanol plant ownership, and the impact of tax credits. As I noted in the earnings release, we are hosting an Investor Day on December 9, where we will update our long-term targets through 2028 and provide additional details about our strategy and outlook. I am proud of our team's resilience in this dynamic and challenging environment. We will continue to make responsible decisions that benefit our customers and maximize shareholder value as we execute our strategy. And with that, we are happy to answer your questions.

憑藉我們雄厚的資產負債表和發展願望，我們計劃評估現有設施範圍內的機會，以及符合我們財務和策略標準的收購機會。上個季度，我與大家分享了我們將 2026 年的財務目標（按運行率計算）轉換為每股收益 4.30 美元。我們預計，隨著農業綜合企業業績的改善、乙醇工廠所有權的增加以及稅收抵免的影響，我們將實現這一目標。正如我在獲利報告中提到的，我們將於 12 月 9 日舉辦投資者日活動，屆時我們將更新至 2028 年的長期目標，並提供有關我們策略和展望的更多細節。我為我們團隊在這種充滿活力和挑戰的環境中展現出的韌性感到自豪。我們將繼續做出對客戶有利、對股東價值最大化的負責任的決策，以貫徹我們的策略。那麼，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Pooran Sharma, Stephens.

（操作說明）Pooran Sharma，Stephens。

Good morning. Thanks for the questions here, and congrats on posting the strong results. Just wanted to maybe focus on 45Z tax credits. You did mention that there's the potential -- or that we should expect to see an increase in contribution from these credits. And we're just doing some rough math. Do you think that increase gets to $0.10 per gallon for 4Q? And just wondering if you could maybe provide some details around how that gets monetized. In regards to 2026, do you think that your CI score -- with the CI score adjustments that you could get to around a $0.20 per gallon tax credit in 2026?

早安.感謝大家提出的問題，也恭喜你們取得如此優異的成績。我只是想重點談談 45Z 稅收抵免。您確實提到過，這些信貸額度有可能帶來貢獻增加——或者說，我們應該期待看到這些信貸額度的貢獻增加。我們只是做一些粗略的計算。你認為第四季油價會漲到每加侖 0.10 美元嗎？我想問一下，您能否詳細說明一下這項服務是如何獲利的？關於 2026 年，您認為您的 CI 分數（透過 CI 分數調整）能否在 2026 年獲得每加侖 0.20 美元左右的稅收抵免？

Morning, Pooran. Both are -- all three of those are really good questions. Let's start with Q4. As I mentioned in the script, we are expecting a $10 million to $15 million EBITDA benefit from 45Z tax credits on a net basis for 2024 -- for 2025 Q4. For 2026, as we mentioned at the -- in our Q2 call and again today, is we will give more guidance on 2026 forward at our Investor Day in December 9.

早安，普蘭。兩者都是——這三個問題都非常好。我們先來看第四季。正如我在劇本中提到的，我們預計 2024 年（即 2025 年第四季）45Z 稅收抵免將帶來 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的 EBITDA 淨收益。對於 2026 年，正如我們在第二季度電話會議上以及今天再次提到的那樣，我們將在 12 月 9 日的投資者日上提供更多關於 2026 年及以後的指導。

Great, great. I appreciate you pointing that out there for me. Maybe just shift into Agribusiness and understand that with the policy clarity, trade policy clarity, you can maybe start to see a little more improvement. And just wondering if you do get that and if you do get China to actually start to purchase on that 12 million metric tonnes this year, even just the 25 million metric tonnes annually, do you think that -- how quickly do you think you can get back to a more normalized earnings environment for Agribusiness if you do get those kind of two pieces for that business? And then how quickly can that change in the China trade policy have an impact on the sorghum market? And sorry, just lastly, just wanted to also understand how Skyland is faring if you could confirm your EBITDA contribution expectations for that business?

太好了，太好了。謝謝你指出這一點。或許可以轉型進入農業綜合企業領域，並意識到，隨著政策和貿易政策的明朗化，情況可能會有所改善。我想知道，如果您真的實現了這一點，並且如果您真的能讓中國今年開始購買那 1200 萬噸農產品，甚至只是每年 2500 萬噸，您認為——如果您真的為這項業務實現了這兩個目標，您認為農業綜合企業能夠多快恢復到更正常的盈利環境？那麼，中國貿易政策的這種變化會以多快的速度對高粱市場產生影響呢？最後，不好意思，我還想了解 Skyland 的經營狀況，能否確認一下您對該業務 EBITDA 貢獻的預期？

I will take the first two. So for The Andersons, we will benefit more from China purchasing sorghum than soybeans. The opportunity exists as soon as they buy US sorghum and soybeans, we're unable to provide guidance until we actually see them come into the market and purchase product. As we read the summaries of the meeting, the metric tonnes of soybeans need to be purchased by the end of the year, but don't need to ship by the end of the year. So we'll need to see clarity around those purchases. On sorghum, it would likely be a strong uplift pretty immediately for us. We -- our asset in Houston, our Western grain assets have seen very robust sorghum harvest. So we look forward to the opportunity to see any export business for sorghum. On the Skyland specific question, I'll let Brian handle that one.

我選前兩個。因此，對安德森家族來說，中國購買高粱比購買大豆更能讓我們受益。一旦他們購買美國高粱和大豆，機會就出現了。在我們實際看到他們進入市場併購買產品之前，我們無法提供指導。根據會議紀要，需要在年底前採購一定數量的大豆，但不需要在年底前出貨。所以我們需要了解這些採購的具體情況。對於高粱來說，這很可能很快就會為我們帶來顯著的提振。我們在休士頓的資產，以及我們在西部的糧食資產，都取得了非常強勁的高粱收成。因此，我們期待有機會看到高粱出口業務。關於 Skyland 的具體問題，我會讓 Brian 來處理。

Yes, sure. I mean, Pooran, when we originally talked about Skyland, our original EBITDA estimate was a run rate of about $30 million to $40 million a year. With the headwinds that we've seen this year, we probably will be closer to about half of that number for 2025. But to your point, and just following on Bill's comments, depending on what happens with sorghum exports, we should be able to get back to that run rate if things normalize from that perspective.

當然可以。我的意思是，Pooran，當我們最初討論 Skyland 時，我們最初的 EBITDA 估計是每年約 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元。考慮到今年我們所面臨的種種不利因素，到 2025 年，我們可能只能達到這個數字的一半左右。但正如你所說，也正如比爾所說，如果高粱出口情況正常化，我們應該能夠恢復到先前的運行速度。

Great, great. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

太好了，太好了。欣賞這種顏色。謝謝。

Ben Mayhew, BMO Capital Markets.

Ben Mayhew，BMO資本市場。

Hey, good morning, guys. First of all, congratulations on the really strong quarter. So my first question has to do with ethanol demand. And just kind of thinking about as we head deeper into fourth quarter, board crush is coming off from third quarter. How are you thinking about just kind of the run rate of margins? The outlook now that we have E15 approval in California, I mean what's the impact of that? Do we -- maybe do we expect lighter export volumes? Or do you expect export volumes to remain strong? And just trying to get a sense of how we exit the year with ethanol margins, which seem to be overall in a lot better place than historically.

嘿，各位早安。首先，恭喜你們取得了非常出色的季度業績。所以我的第一個問題與乙醇需求有關。隨著我們進入第四季度，我們開始思考，第三季以來的市場低迷局面正在逐漸消退。您如何看待利潤率的運行速度？現在加州已經批准了E15燃料，那麼前景如何呢？我的意思是，這會產生什麼影響？我們是否可以預期出口量會減少？或者您預計出口量將保持強勁？我們只是想了解今年乙醇利潤率的走勢，目前看來，乙醇利潤率總體上比歷史水準好得多。

Yeah, Ben, good questions. The start -- the first part of -- or I'm going to take the second part first. The approval in California is just that. It's approval, and they have to still work through some minor details with CARB that we think will be completed by year-end. So we do look at the E15 as a very positive move in California. Today, we believe that there's plenty of production capacity to handle the additional California barrels that will be consumed in 2026.

是的，本，問得好。開頭——或者說，我打算先看第二部分。加州的批准僅此而已。已經獲得批准，他們還需要與加州空氣資源委員會 (CARB) 處理一些小細節，我們認為這些細節將在年底前完成。因此，我們認為E15在加州是一個非常積極的舉措。目前，我們認為有足夠的產能來處理 2026 年加州將要消耗的額外桶裝原油。

We also think that as the US is priced today, that we expect demand in 2026 to be relatively flat on both exports and domestic with the potential of a slight uptick in California once the CARB regulations are finalized. In terms of the board crush coming off, that's -- you are correct, it has fallen off. But the corn basis levels have come down substantially as we're entering into the final parts of this 2025 harvest. So if you look at a net effect, I'm not so sure that you can just make the broad assumption that overall ethanol margins are down. You should likely want to take into play the various regions and the reduction of corn basis driving the corn values down lower.

我們也認為，以美國目前的定價來看，我們預計 2026 年出口和國內需求將相對平穩，但一旦加州 CARB 法規最終確定，加州的需求可能會略有上升。至於電路板脫落的情況，你說得對，它已經脫落了。但隨著 2025 年玉米收割季進入最後階段，玉米基差水準已大幅下降。所以，如果從淨效應來看，我不太確定能否就此做出乙醇整體利潤率下降的普遍假設。你可能需要考慮各個地區的情況，以及玉米基差的降低導致玉米價格走低。

Got it. That makes sense. My second question has to do with your comments on your financial position and just kind of getting back into the M&A search, if you will. So it sounds like you think this environment is to the point where things are -- fundamentals are poor enough in certain areas where assets will likely come to sale. So I'm just wondering like what are some examples of these asset types that we could think about? And maybe you can't answer this, maybe this is an Investor Day thing, but when you think about the sheer amount of cash flow, you're just going to get from these 45Z tax credits, I mean, assuming it all plays out as we think it's going to in the moment. Over time, I mean, how do you think about that cash accumulation and what you want to spend it on? What like -- and so maybe you can't fully go into that until the Investor Day, but can you give us a teaser or a hint as to what you're thinking in the near term?

知道了。這很有道理。我的第二個問題與您先前對財務狀況的評論有關，以及您重新開始進行併購搜尋的計劃。聽起來你認為目前的情況已經到了這樣的地步——某些領域的基本面非常糟糕，資產很可能會被出售。所以我想知道，我們可以考慮哪些類型的資產？也許你無法回答這個問題，也許這是投資者日的問題，但當你想到這些 45Z 稅收抵免能為你帶來多少現金流時，我的意思是，假設一切都像我們目前認為的那樣發展。我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，你會如何看待這些現金累積以及你想用它們做什麼？例如——所以也許在投資者日之前你無法完全透露這一點，但你能給我們一些預告或暗示，說說你最近的想法嗎？

Yeah. You are correct. That is the plan for the Investor Day in just a little over a month. But the one thing I do want to remind everyone is over the last several years, we've been very disciplined with our capital allocation. So we don't plan to deviate from that mindset. We think it's rewarded our shareholders well. And we do believe there will be opportunities. I don't feel that it's appropriate to be commenting on what we're going to be spending the money on today. As I did state in my script, though, we like our core area of operations, and we're going to continue to be focused on our core strengths as a company and looking for opportunities to deploy capital in those areas.

是的。你說得對。這是一個月後舉行的投資者日的計畫。但我確實想提醒大家，在過去的幾年裡，我們在資本配置方面一直非常自律。所以我們並不打算改變這種思路。我們認為這為股東帶來了豐厚的回報。我們相信機會總是有的。我覺得現在評論我們要把錢花在哪裡並不合適。正如我在演講稿中所述，我們喜歡我們的核心業務領域，我們將繼續專注於公司的核心優勢，並尋找機會在這些領域部署資本。

Got it, thanks. I’ll hop back in the queue.

明白了，謝謝。我重新排隊。

(Operator Instructions) Jaeson Schmidt, Lake Street.

（操作員說明）Jaeson Schmidt，湖街。

Hi, guys, I appreciate you taking my questions. Just given the current backdrop, do you think the Agribusiness margins have troughed here in Q3?

大家好，感謝你們回答我的問題。就目前的情況來看，您認為農業綜合企業的利潤率在第三季是否已經觸底？

That's an excellent question. As we look towards Q4 with the size of the wheat harvest that got completed and the corn crop that we're finishing up right now, I think it's fair to assume knowing what we know today that Q4 '25 results should be trending back closer to a Q4 2024 results, obviously, stating that we still have a ways to go to get through Q4, but we do feel like the market dynamics are set up as long as we have clarity on trade policy that 2026 should provide more opportunities than 2025. And Jaeson, back to the comment that I made in the script, is our assumptions come from increased Agribusiness results. Our fertilizer business is going to have a decent 2025. We need to focus on the grains and grains products side of that business, and that's kind of where we're looking at 2026 today.

這是一個很好的問題。展望第四季度，鑑於小麥收割已經完成，玉米收割也即將結束，我認為根據我們目前掌握的信息，可以合理推斷 2025 年第四季度的業績應該會逐漸接近 2024 年第四季度的水平。當然，我們距離第四季結束還有一段路要走，但只要貿易政策明朗，我們認為市場動態已經成熟，2026 年的機會應該會比 2025 年更多。傑森，回到我在劇本中提到的那句話，我們的假設源自於農業綜合企業績效的提升。我們的化肥業務在2025年將會有不錯的表現。我們需要專注於穀物和穀物製品業務，而這正是我們目前對 2026 年的展望。

Got you. That's really helpful. And then can you remind us what the remaining CapEx requirements are for the two large construction projects?

抓到你了。這真的很有幫助。那麼，您能否提醒我們這兩個大型建設項目還剩下多少資本支出需求？

Yeah. I would say, look, we expect our full-year CapEx this year, we expect to be in the range of $200 million, probably 60%-ish of that is growth capital. And so I would say with regard to those projects, there's probably another $30 million to $50 million.

是的。我想說，我們預計今年的全年資本支出將在 2 億美元左右，其中約 60% 是成長資本。因此，就這些項目而言，我認為可能還需要 3,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元。

Okay. Perfect. And then just the last one for me, and I'll jump back into queue. Just going off some of the previous questions, I know you mentioned your discipline with your capital allocation strategy. But just kind of reconciling that with this excess cash flow that will be coming into the tax credits, does that change the size and scope of things you'd look at in the future?

好的。完美的。然後就輪到我了，最後一個，我就要重新排隊了。根據之前的一些問題，我知道您提到了您在資本配置策略方面的自律性。但是，考慮到稅收抵免帶來的額外現金流，這是否會改變您未來關注的規模和範圍？

That's a fair question. And I think if you look back, Jaeson, over the last two years, our size and scope have altered with the $425 million capital deployment for the ethanol plants, the $75 million for Houston. I really do think that we've looked -- we've started to look at larger opportunities that maybe have more scale. Simultaneously, if we see an easy bolt-on that fits right down the fairway for us, we're likely going to continue to look at those. But I do think that you make a good observation that our expected cash flows in the future will allow us to look at larger M&A projects.

這是一個很合理的問題。傑森，我認為回顧過去兩年，我們的規模和範圍已經發生了變化，我們為乙醇工廠投入了 4.25 億美元的資本，為休士頓投入了 7500 萬美元。我真的認為我們已經開始尋找——我們已經開始尋找規模更大的機會。同時，如果我們發現有一款易於安裝且非常適合我們需求的配件，我們可能會繼續關注它。但我認為你的觀點很有道理，我們未來預期的現金流將使我們能夠考慮更大的併購專案。

Okay. Makes sense. Appreciate the color, guys. Thanks a lot.

好的。有道理。夥計們，欣賞一下這色彩吧。多謝。

Ben Mayhew. BMO Capital Markets.

本·梅休。BMO資本市場。

Hey, guys, I'm back for one more. Just a question on the fertilizer business. And you noted in third quarter, which is typically a weaker quarter for this business, volumes and margins were up. So what does that indicate to you ahead of the next planting season? And I guess attached to that question is an update on the US farmer. Now versus maybe a month or two ago, what are you hearing from the farmers in terms of level of optimism and willingness to spend on inputs for the next marketing year?

嘿，各位，我又回來了。關於化肥產業，我有個問題想請教一下。您也注意到，在一般業務較為疲軟的第三季度，銷量和利潤率均有所上升。那麼，這對你來說意味著下一個播種季節會是什麼樣的呢？我想這個問題也與美國農民的最新情況有關。與一兩個月前相比，現在您從農民那裡了解到，他們對下一個銷售年度的樂觀程度以及在投入方面的意願如何？

I will start with the sentiment portion of that. I don't know that you could have had a much lower farmer sentiment 60 days ago, we have had a nice rally in soybeans, I think, don't quote me on this, but somewhere around 15-month highs. So with the recent rallies in the futures market, the optimism that there will be funds coming out of Washington, DC once the government reopens, I think has raised the sentiment of the US producer. And so in comparing -- in looking at our fertilizer business in a silo, comparing Q4 -- or excuse me, Q3 of 2025 to Q3 of 2024 is where the uptick was coming. I do think that the producer is going to be cautious. They're making a lot of their fall application decisions as we speak. And you could see, as I mentioned in the script, is if there's uncertainty, they could delay those decisions until the spring. And that's what we are -- we plan to figure out over the next 30 days, just to be quite honest with you.

我先從情感部分談起。我不認為60天前農民信心會更低，大豆價格出現了一波不錯的反彈，我認為（別引用我的話），價格達到了15個月以來的最高點左右。因此，隨著期貨市場近期的上漲，以及人們對政府重新開放後華盛頓特區將有資金注入的樂觀情緒，我認為這提振了美國生產商的信心。因此，在比較——單獨來看我們的化肥業務，比較 2025 年第四季（或更準確地說，是 2024 年第三季）與 2025 年第三季時，成長就出現了。我認為製片人會比較謹慎。他們現在正在做出秋季入學申請的大部分決定。正如我在劇本中提到的，如果存在不確定性，他們可能會將這些決定推遲到春季。坦白說，這就是我們目前的情況——我們計劃在接下來的 30 天內解決這個問題。

Thanks again.

再次感謝。

And with that, we will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mike Hoelter for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給麥克·霍爾特，請他作總結發言。

Thanks, Joe. We want to thank you all for joining us this morning. Our next earnings conference call is scheduled for Wednesday, February 18, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time when we will review our fourth quarter results. As always, thank you for your interest in The Andersons, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.

謝謝你，喬。感謝各位今天早上的到來。我們下次財報電話會議定於2026年2月18日星期三美國東部時間上午8:30舉行，屆時我們將回顧第四季業績。一如既往，感謝您對安德森家族的關注，我們期待盡快再次與您聯繫。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。現在您可以斷開線路了。