美國電塔 (AMT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

在 2022 年第四季度,American Tower Corp 預計其每股應佔 AFFO 將在報告基礎上減少 0.16 美元,同時與去年同期持平。主要原因是融資成本的影響,包括利率驅動的現金利息支出增加、少數股東權益和與其美國數據中心業務相關的優先分配的全年增量影響,以及 2022 年的普通股發行。預計這些影響將在 2023 年造成約 8% 的重大一次性增長阻力。但是,如果排除這些影響,他們的業務將顯示出約 9% 的穩健增長貢獻。

2023 年,American Tower Corp 計劃繼續通過增加股息為股東帶來回報。他們預計將分配約 30 億美元,相當於每股約 10% 的同比增長率。他們還預計將部署約 17 億美元的資本支出,其中 90% 將是可自由支配的。這將主要用於繼續他們在國際上取得成功的新建設計劃,該計劃假設在中點建設約 4,000 個站點。他們還預計數據中心資本將適度增加,因為他們尋求補充 2022 年售出的創紀錄容量並保持適當的可售容量水平。在過去的 5 年裡,American Tower 與美國的 T-Mobile、AT&T、DISH 和 Verizon 簽署了全面的主租賃協議。這些協議代表了 American Tower 與其客戶之間對互惠互利、可預測的增長路徑和戰略聯盟的承諾,同時也展示了 American Tower 在全國范圍內 43,000 多個站點組合對支持 4G、5G 和未來網絡世代的價值和重要性。此類協議還帶來了效率創新,旨在簡化租賃流程並加快運營商的上市時間。

為了擴大這些優勢,American Tower 已投資於技術以構建整體標準化數據集,繪製其絕大多數美國資產。可以利用此數據集將應用程序週期時間縮短到幾個小時。 American Tower 認為,在 5G 密集化週期的背景下,這種類型的功能將成為一種特別有吸引力的客戶價值主張,並且可以隨著時間的推移在其全球足跡中擴展。

印度的 Vodafone Idea (VIL) 一直在進行部分付款,印度政府最近將調整後的總收入利息餘額轉換為 VIL 的股權。儘管 VIL 已承諾在 2023 年全額付款,但他們表示將繼續支付部分款項。 American Tower 一直致力於逐步改善自身定位和應收賬款餘額,同時也展示了對 VIL 的一定程度的支持。 2022 年第四季度,American Tower Corp (ATC) 調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 11%,超過 66 億美元。這一增長得益於 Telxius 和 CoreSite 的貢獻,以及通過有效的成本管理實現的強勁收入增長。

在綜合基礎上,調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與 2021 年相比下降了約 190 個基點,這主要是由於美國 VIL 儲備和 Sprint 流失的影響、燃料成本上升導致的轉嫁收入增加以及利潤率下降新收購資產概況。

ATC 的應佔 AFFO 和每股應佔 AFFO 在第四季度分別增長了約 5.6% 和 3.5%,其中每股增長超過 11%。今年,這兩個指標都包含超過 2% 的與外匯相關的不利因素。每股 9.76 美元的權益 AFFO 比一年前最初設定的 2022 年展望中點高出 0.06 美元,儘管吸收了增量 VIL 儲備、利率驅動的利息成本和相對於 ATC 初始假設的外彙的負面影響。

展望 2023 年,ATC 預計在新業務加速的推動下,美國和加拿大的有機租戶賬單增長將顯著加快,並得到公司在過去幾年簽署的全面 MLA 的支持,以及連續改善簽約 Sprint 流失。在 American Tower Corp 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議上,該公司首席執行官 Jim Taiclet 討論了在未來 2-3 年內提高蜂窩塔緻密化的潛力。他還提到,運營商正在使用略高的頻段,這將需要更多的發射塔。來自 Wells Fargo 的 Eric Luebchow 詢問了該公司在拉丁美洲的業務,特別是 Telefónica 和 Oi 的客戶流失的影響。 Taiclet 回答說,他們對 2023 年以後的客戶流失情況有一些了解,屆時其中一些事件可能會得到解決。

公司首席財務官羅德·史密斯 (Rod Smith) 談到了資產負債表以及他們如何管理利息支出的增加。他說他們正在尋找不同的選擇來幫助降低這一點。

因此,這實際上是圍繞機會主義並確保我們為股東帶來最佳回報。

American Tower Corp 正在評估進入印度市場的機會。他們正在考慮市場的波動性,但認為存在上行潛力。他們目前尚未做出任何決定,但正在繼續評估情況。

在回答有關沃達丰印度有限公司 (VIL) 的問題時,American Tower Corp (ATC) 首席財務官 Thomas Bartlett 表示,ATC 已為 2023 年的 VIL 預留了 7500 萬美元,高於 2022 年為 VIL 預留的 1 億美元。巴特利特表示,VIL 是向 ATC 支付的費用比 2020 年底時多,ATC 預計 VIL 將在整個 2023 年繼續增加支付額。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Tower Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Adam Smith, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    女士們,先生們,謝謝你們的支持。歡迎來到 American Tower 第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。提醒一下,今天的電話會議正在錄製中。 (操作員說明)我現在想把電話轉給你的主持人,投資者關係高級副總裁亞當史密斯。請繼續,先生。

  • Adam Smith - SVP of IR

    Adam Smith - SVP of IR

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining American Tower's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. We have posted a presentation, which we will refer to throughout our prepared remarks, under the Investor Relations tab of our website, www.americantower.com. On this morning's call, Tom Bartlett, our President and CEO, will provide an update on our strategy; and then Rod Smith, our Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer, will discuss our 2022 results and 2023 outlook. After these comments, we will open up the call for your questions.

    早上好,感謝您參加 American Tower 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。我們已經在我們網站 www.americantower.com 的“投資者關係”選項卡下發布了一份演示文稿,我們將在整個準備好的評論中引用該演示文稿。在今天上午的電話會議上,我們的總裁兼首席執行官湯姆·巴特利特 (Tom Bartlett) 將提供有關我們戰略的最新信息;然後,我們的執行副總裁、首席財務官兼財務主管羅德·史密斯 (Rod Smith) 將討論我們 2022 年的業績和 2023 年的展望。在這些評論之後,我們將打開您的問題電話。

  • Before we begin, I'll remind you that our comments will contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Examples of these statements include our expectations regarding future growth, including our 2023 outlook, capital allocation and future operating performance. Our collections expectations associated with Vodafone Idea in India, and any other statements regarding matters that are not historical facts.

    在我們開始之前,我會提醒您,我們的評論將包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及許多風險和不確定性。這些陳述的示例包括我們對未來增長的預期,包括我們的 2023 年展望、資本配置和未來經營業績。我們對印度 Vodafone Idea 的收集期望,以及與非歷史事實相關的任何其他陳述。

  • You should be aware that certain factors may affect us in the future and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Such factors include the risk factors set forth in this morning's earnings press release, those that will be set forth in our upcoming Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and in other filings we make with the SEC. We urge you to consider these factors and remind you that we undertake no obligation to update the information contained in this call to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.

    您應該知道,某些因素可能會在未來影響我們,並可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。這些因素包括今天上午的收益新聞稿中規定的風險因素、我們即將發布的截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中規定的風險因素。我們敦促您考慮這些因素並提醒您,我們沒有義務更新本次電話中包含的信息以反映後續事件或情況。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給湯姆。

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Adam, and thanks to everyone for joining the call this morning. 5 years ago, when we rolled out the Stand and Deliver strategy that would guide us over the following decade, we emphasized driving the business forward through 4 key pillars: enhancing operational efficiency, growing our assets and capabilities, investing in innovation and platform extensions and augmenting industry leadership.

    謝謝亞當,感謝大家今天早上加入電話會議。 5 年前,當我們推出將在未來十年指導我們的 Stand and Deliver 戰略時,我們強調通過 4 個關鍵支柱推動業務向前發展:提高運營效率、增加我們的資產和能力、投資於創新和平台擴展以及增強行業領先地位。

  • Since that time, we've seen carriers across our global footprint invest over $300 billion in network assets and methodically deploy next-generation networks to support rapidly increasing data demand in their served markets. Our commitment to execute on each pillar of Stand and Deliver not only aligns with our customers' needs in this context, but it also enhances American Tower's position to serve as a strategic provider of critical infrastructure for the networks of the future.

    從那時起,我們已經看到全球運營商在網絡資產上投資超過 3000 億美元,並有條不紊地部署下一代網絡,以支持其服務市場中快速增長的數據需求。我們致力於執行 Stand and Deliver 的每個支柱,這不僅符合我們客戶在這種情況下的需求,而且還增強了 American Tower 作為未來網絡關鍵基礎設施戰略提供商的地位。

  • So before highlighting the key strategic objectives we'll focus on in 2023 and over the next several years, I'd like to spend a moment reviewing achievements from the past 5 years that have driven our success to date.

    因此,在強調我們將在 2023 年和未來幾年重點關注的關鍵戰略目標之前,我想花點時間回顧一下過去 5 年推動我們取得成功的成就。

  • On the operational front, we've signed comprehensive master lease agreements with T-Mobile, AT&T, DISH and most recently, Verizon in the United States. These agreements represent a commitment to a mutually beneficial, predictable growth path and strategic alignment between American Tower and its customers while also demonstrating the value and criticality of our nationwide 43,000-plus site portfolio to support 4G, 5G and future network generations. Such agreements also bring with them efficiency innovations designed to deliver simplicity in leasing processes and accelerated time to market for the carriers.

    在運營方面,我們與 T-Mobile、AT&T、DISH 以及最近與美國的 Verizon 簽署了全面的主租賃協議。這些協議代表了 American Tower 與其客戶之間對互惠互利、可預測的增長路徑和戰略聯盟的承諾,同時也展示了我們全國 43,000 多個站點組合對支持 4G、5G 和未來網絡世代的價值和重要性。此類協議還帶來了效率創新,旨在簡化租賃流程並加快運營商的上市時間。

  • To extend on these benefits, we've invested in technologies to build a holistic standardized data set, mapping the vast majority of our U.S. assets, which can be leveraged to eventually bring application cycle times down to a matter of hours. We believe this type of capability will be a particularly attractive customer value proposition in the context of a 5G densification cycle and one we believe can be scaled across our global footprint over time.

    為了擴大這些優勢,我們投資了技術來構建一個整體的標準化數據集,映射我們絕大多數的美國資產,可以利用這些數據最終將應用程序週期時間縮短到幾個小時。我們相信,在 5G 密集化週期的背景下,這種類型的能力將成為一種特別有吸引力的客戶價值主張,並且我們相信隨著時間的推移,這種能力可以擴展到我們的全球足跡。

  • Our focus on operational efficiency has extended throughout our international business as well. Notably, since the beginning of 2018, we've invested nearly $350 million, primarily in Africa, on improving site level performance through our Power as a Service program. This includes the installation of lithium-ion batteries and solar arrays for primary and backup power delivery, which has resulted in a sizable reduction in average fuel consumption per site across our African portfolio and has extended the replacement cycles of critical power sources all while providing over a 99.9% average uptime for our customers' networks.

    我們對運營效率的關注也延伸到我們的整個國際業務中。值得注意的是,自 2018 年初以來,我們已經投資了近 3.5 億美元,主要是在非洲,用於通過我們的 Power 即服務計劃提高站點級別的性能。這包括安裝用於主電源和備用電源的鋰離子電池和太陽能電池陣列,這大大降低了我們非洲產品組合中每個站點的平均燃料消耗,並延長了關鍵電源的更換週期,同時提供超過我們客戶網絡的平均正常運行時間為 99.9%。

  • At the same time, we've established a centralized procurement organization that aims to drive down material costs. And we've leveraged shared best practices and our scale as a multinational operator to strengthen our global vendor relationships. By streamlining these critical operational functions, we've been able to continue to drive solid investment returns on our capital deployments and efficiently meet the infrastructure needs of our customers, all against a challenging backdrop of price volatility and supply chain disruptions.

    同時,我們建立了集中採購組織,旨在降低材料成本。我們利用共享的最佳實踐和我們作為跨國運營商的規模來加強我們的全球供應商關係。通過精簡這些關鍵的運營職能,我們能夠繼續推動我們的資本部署獲得可觀的投資回報,並有效地滿足客戶的基礎設施需求,所有這些都是在價格波動和供應鏈中斷的挑戰背景下進行的。

  • In fact, since the start of 2018, we've added nearly 26,000 sites to our international portfolio through new builds, more than 2x the volume of the previous 5-year period. Today, these sites are contributing approximately $250 million in tower cash flow and an NOI yield of approximately 21%, demonstrating meaningful expansion from the already attractive low double-digit day 1 yields we typically see on these new build opportunities.

    事實上,自 2018 年初以來,我們已經通過新建將近 26,000 個站點添加到我們的國際產品組合中,數量是前 5 年的 2 倍多。如今,這些地點貢獻了大約 2.5 億美元的塔式現金流和大約 21% 的 NOI 收益率,這表明我們在這些新建機會中通常看到的已經很吸引人的低兩位數的第一天收益率已經有了有意義的擴張。

  • On the M&A front, we've executed a number of transactions that have been transformational in terms of delivering additional critical scale in existing and new markets ahead of major network investment cycle, the benefits of which we are seeing in our results and forward-looking expectations today. These include InSite in the United States, The Eaton portfolio in Africa as well as Telxius in Europe and Latin America, which augmented our scale in Germany and provided entry to Spain in a leadership position just as 5G investments were beginning to ramp up on the continent.

    在併購方面,我們已經執行了多項交易,這些交易在主要網絡投資週期之前在現有和新市場提供額外的關鍵規模方面具有變革性,我們在我們的結果和前瞻性中看到了這些好處今天的期望。其中包括美國的 InSite、非洲的伊頓投資組合以及歐洲和拉丁美洲的 Telxius,這擴大了我們在德國的規模,並在 5G 投資開始在歐洲大陸增加之際幫助我們進入西班牙市場處於領先地位.

  • More recently, through our efforts to selectively expand our platform and position American Tower as a market leader in the next generation of network architecture development, we entered the data center space through the acquisition of CoreSite. CoreSite delivers an interconnection and cloud on-ramp rich platform as well as exposure to a resilient high-demand communications infrastructure business, which we believe will deliver strong performance as demonstrated by a record signed new business in 2022 and provide accretive returns on a stand-alone basis over time. As importantly, we believe the combination of CoreSite and American Towers platform of distributed tower in real estate positions us to enhance the value of our existing assets as the edge proliferates.

    最近,通過我們努力有選擇地擴展我們的平台並將 American Tower 定位為下一代網絡架構開發的市場領導者,我們通過收購 CoreSite 進入了數據中心領域。 CoreSite 提供了一個互連和雲入口豐富的平台,並提供了一個有彈性的高需求通信基礎設施業務,我們相信這將提供強勁的性能,如 2022 年簽署的新業務記錄所證明的那樣,並提供穩定的增值回報隨著時間的推移單獨的基礎上。同樣重要的是,我們相信 CoreSite 和 American Towers 房地產分佈式塔平台的結合使我們能夠隨著邊緣的擴散而提升我們現有資產的價值。

  • Finally, I'm particularly proud of the steps we've made towards augmenting our leadership in several areas. Organizationally, we've made ESG core to our operations through initiatives such as our commitment to science-based targets, localized DE&I initiatives designed to facilitate an inclusive organization for our employees and stakeholders and through the growth of our digital communities program, which has now reached more than 400 communities and serves more than 335,000 people across 15 countries.

    最後,我對我們為加強我們在多個領域的領導地位所採取的步驟感到特別自豪。在組織上,我們通過以下舉措使 ESG 成為我們運營的核心,例如我們對基於科學的目標的承諾、旨在為我們的員工和利益相關者促進包容性組織的本地化 DE&I 舉措,以及通過我們的數字社區計劃的發展,該計劃現已覆蓋了 400 多個社區,為 15 個國家/地區的 335,000 多人提供服務。

  • As I mentioned on this call last year, we're also a member of the Edison Alliance 1 Billion Lives Challenge, which provides us the opportunity to contribute to the development of affordable and accessible digital health care, finance and education solutions for communities in need. Over the past year, we've developed partnerships with health care providers that have resulted in the launch of several telehealth locations that provide primary, preventative and specialty teleconsultation services in underserved areas.

    正如我在去年的電話會議上提到的那樣,我們也是愛迪生聯盟 10 億人的生命挑戰的成員,這使我們有機會為有需要的社區開發負擔得起且易於訪問的數字醫療保健、金融和教育解決方案做出貢獻.在過去的一年裡,我們與醫療保健提供者建立了合作夥伴關係,從而啟動了幾個遠程醫療站點,這些站點在服務欠缺的地區提供初級、預防性和專業遠程諮詢服務。

  • While this is just one positive first step, we believe that we've achieved over the last year clearly demonstrates the value we can create and the communities we serve through a commitment to multi-stakeholder collaboration and partnerships. And we hope more organizations will join us in efforts like these over the coming years, which brings us to today and our focus for 2023 and beyond.

    雖然這只是積極的第一步,但我們相信我們在過去一年中取得的成就清楚地表明了我們可以通過致力於多方利益相關者協作和夥伴關係創造的價值和我們服務的社區。我們希望在未來幾年有更多的組織加入我們的行列,這使我們走到了今天,並關注 2023 年及以後的發展。

  • We believe we're poised to build on and accelerate the successes of Stand and Deliver that we've achieved thus far. As I mentioned in the opening, our teams are focused on key strategic objectives that will continue to guide our operations and management teams in American Tower over the next several years.

    我們相信,我們已準備好鞏固並加速我們迄今取得的 Stand and Deliver 成功。正如我在開場白中提到的,我們的團隊專注於關鍵戰略目標,這些目標將在未來幾年繼續指導我們在 American Tower 的運營和管理團隊。

  • The first of these is to leverage our premier platform of assets to drive strong recurring growth, both organically and through our disciplined capital allocation framework and our investment-grade balance sheet as we seek to capture new business opportunities against the backdrop of secular demand trends that remain as strong as ever. We refer to this internally as scale the core.

    其中第一項是利用我們首要的資產平台,在我們尋求在長期需求趨勢的背景下捕捉新商機的過程中,通過有機地和通過我們嚴格的資本配置框架和我們的投資級資產負債表來推動強勁的經常性增長保持一如既往的強大。我們在內部將此稱為核心規模。

  • To this end, we expect an acceleration in organic growth in 2023, representing an improvement of around 100 basis points relative to our prior 5-year average. Beginning with our U.S. and Canada segment, the benefits of our comprehensive MLAs and ongoing 5G deployments are driving an expectation for organic tenant billings growth of approximately 5% in 2023, including approximately $220 million in year-over-year colocation and amendment growth, which would be a record year for American Tower by a significant margin.

    為此,我們預計 2023 年有機增長將加速,比我們之前 5 年的平均水平提高約 100 個基點。從我們的美國和加拿大分部開始,我們全面的 MLA 和正在進行的 5G 部署的好處正在推動對 2023 年有機租戶賬單增長約 5% 的預期,其中包括約 2.2 億美元的託管和修正增長,這對於 American Tower 來說,這將是創紀錄的一年。

  • We also see a path to solid organic growth in our international segment led by regions like Europe and Africa, where we're capturing activity from multiple network upgrade and densification cycles and are realizing the benefits of CPI-linked escalators on the vast majority of our leases.

    我們還看到了以歐洲和非洲等地區為首的國際部分實現穩健有機增長的途徑,我們正在從多個網絡升級和緻密化週期中捕捉活動,並在我們的絕大多數產品中實現與 CPI 相關的自動扶梯的好處租約。

  • This will be complemented by what we expect to be yet another year of solid new build activity primarily in international markets, where the current 4G and 5G network rollouts continue to drive strong demand for new infrastructure. And in our data centers business, where we're entering 2023 with record backlog, we'll continue to focus on driving increasing growth, both on an organic basis and through high-yield development opportunities that are ongoing today.

    這將得到我們預計又一年主要在國際市場的穩健新建活動的補充,目前 4G 和 5G 網絡的推出繼續推動對新基礎設施的強勁需求。在我們的數據中心業務中,我們將以創紀錄的積壓進入 2023 年,我們將繼續專注於推動增長,無論是在有機基礎上還是通過當今正在進行的高收益發展機會。

  • Operationally, our teams are working to continue to build on the many efficiency and growth initiatives we've developed in recent years, which hits on another key objective within the organization: being the most trusted strategic partner for our customers. The most concrete example of our efforts on this front, probably the long-term multimarket agreement we recently announced with Airtel in Africa, which includes a meaningful new build pipeline, a joint commitment to build in accordance with new low-carbon emissions guidelines which we're calling green sights and a partnership framework to enhance the impacts of both companies' digital communities and kiosks programs on the continent.

    在運營方面,我們的團隊正在努力繼續以我們近年來製定的許多效率和增長計劃為基礎,這些計劃實現了組織內的另一個關鍵目標:成為我們客戶最值得信賴的戰略合作夥伴。我們在這方面所做努力的最具體例子,可能是我們最近與非洲 Airtel 宣布的長期多市場協議,其中包括有意義的新建管道,共同承諾根據我們制定的新低碳排放準則進行建設'召集綠色景觀和合作框架,以增强两家公司的數字社區和信息亭計劃在非洲大陸的影響。

  • This agreement exemplifies the benefits of our scale, best-in-class operations and ability to deliver innovative solutions while advancing both American Tower and our customers' long-term sustainability and fossil fuel consumption reduction targets. Going forward, we'll continue to work on building alignments with our global customers to leverage our scale to execute on opportunities to drive growth and maximize shareholder returns in a sustainable and responsible way.

    該協議體現了我們的規模優勢、一流的運營以及提供創新解決方案的能力,同時推進了 American Tower 和我們客戶的長期可持續性和減少化石燃料消耗的目標。展望未來,我們將繼續致力於與我們的全球客戶建立聯盟,以利用我們的規模來抓住機會,以可持續和負責任的方式推動增長並最大化股東回報。

  • This includes an effort to accelerate our platform extensions. As I mentioned previously, demand trends in the data center space remain robust driven by digital platforms, leveraging distributed computing and by the early stages of a sustained enterprise migration from on-prem to hybrid IT and multi-cloud architectures.

    這包括努力加速我們的平台擴展。正如我之前提到的,數據中心領域的需求趨勢在數字平台、利用分佈式計算以及企業從內部部署到混合 IT 和多雲架構的持續遷移的早期階段仍然強勁。

  • As a result, we see a long runway of opportunity to drive strong returns by investing in the expansion of our existing CoreSite campuses and leveraging the open cloud exchange to extend their interconnection-rich ecosystem. At the same time, we're working to position our combined platforms for outsized success as demand for the workloads and compute functions are drawn closer to the end users at the mobile edge.

    因此,我們看到了通過投資擴展我們現有的 CoreSite 校園並利用開放雲交換來擴展其互連豐富的生態系統來推動豐厚回報的機會。與此同時,隨著對工作負載和計算功能的需求越來越接近移動邊緣的最終用戶,我們正在努力定位我們的組合平台以取得巨大成功。

  • And as we evaluate opportunities to accelerate growth through platform extensions going forward, we'll continue to focus on how we can leverage our core competencies in real estate, power provision and connectivity to drive incremental value to the ecosystem while delivering increasing shareholder returns. Meanwhile, as a management team, we're laser-focused on positioning our global teams for the future while growing and maintaining a healthy cultural foundation.

    在評估未來通過平台擴展加速增長的機會時,我們將繼續關注如何利用我們在房地產、電力供應和連接方面的核心競爭力來推動生態系統的增量價值,同時增加股東回報。與此同時,作為一個管理團隊,我們專注於為未來定位我們的全球團隊,同時發展和維護健康的文化基礎。

  • These together represent perhaps our most critical key objectives as our world-class team members are the most valuable asset in American Tower. As we position the company to be a market leader in an evolving landscape, we recognize that developing, empowering and retaining diverse and talented team members is fundamental to our success as a company.

    這些共同代表了我們最關鍵的關鍵目標,因為我們的世界級團隊成員是 American Tower 最寶貴的資產。當我們將公司定位為不斷變化的市場領導者時,我們認識到,發展、授權和留住多元化和有才華的團隊成員是我們公司成功的基礎。

  • Through this lens, we've renewed our focus on management development and institute region-specific programs designed to support a balanced life for our teams amongst many other initiatives. We also appreciate that facilitating a culture that is inclusive and equitable is not only shown to drive better decision-making in business outcomes, but more importantly, it's the right thing to do for the people who dedicate so much of their time to growing this business and delivering value to our customers and shareholders.

    通過這個視角,我們重新關注管理髮展,並製定了針對特定地區的計劃,旨在支持我們的團隊在許多其他計劃中實現平衡的生活。我們也明白,促進包容和公平的文化不僅被證明可以推動更好的業務成果決策,而且更重要的是,對於那些將大量時間投入到發展這項業務的人來說,這是正確的做法為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。

  • In summary, the long-term secular demand trends underpinning growth in our industry remain resilient. We believe we're optimally positioned to capitalize on the successes of our Stand and Deliver strategy to date. And we're more energized than ever as we look to execute on our initiatives in 2023 and deliver strong, sustainable returns for many years to come.

    總之,支撐我們行業增長的長期長期需求趨勢仍然具有彈性。我們相信,我們處於最佳位置,可以利用我們迄今為止取得的成功的 Stand and Deliver 戰略。我們比以往任何時候都更有活力,因為我們希望在 2023 年執行我們的計劃,並在未來許多年內提供強勁、可持續的回報。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Rod to discuss our 2022 results and expectations for 2023. Rod?

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給羅德來討論我們 2022 年的結果和對 2023 年的期望。羅德?

  • Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Thanks, Tom. Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call. Before I dive into our 2022 results and expectations for 2023, I would like to highlight a few key accomplishments from the past year and provide an update on several developments in India since our last earnings call.

    謝謝,湯姆。早上好,感謝您參加今天的電話會議。在我深入探討我們 2022 年的業績和對 2023 年的預期之前,我想強調一下過去一年的一些主要成就,並提供自我們上次財報電話會議以來印度的幾項發展的最新情況。

  • First, demand and operational performance across our global portfolio remain as solid as ever. We closed the year on a positive note with colocation and amendment tenant billings growth contributions of over 4% in Q4.

    首先,我們全球投資組合的需求和運營績效一如既往地穩健。我們以積極的態度結束了這一年,第四季度託管和修正租戶賬單增長貢獻超過 4%。

  • In particular, our U.S. and Canada property segment delivered its strongest quarter since Q1 of 2020, and we have a clear line of sight to continued acceleration into 2023, which I will discuss shortly. Organic growth was complemented by the construction of nearly 7,000 sites, an American Tower record, including over 2,300 sites built in Q4, our highest level over the past 8 quarters with an average day 1 NOI yield of over 12%.

    特別是,我們的美國和加拿大房地產部門創造了自 2020 年第一季度以來最強勁的季度業績,我們對繼續加速進入 2023 年有著明確的看法,我將在稍後討論這一點。有機增長得到了近 7,000 個站點的建設的補充,這是 American Tower 的記錄,其中包括在第四季度建造的 2,300 多個站點,這是我們過去 8 個季度的最高水平,平均第 1 天 NOI 收益率超過 12%。

  • Moreover, during its first full year of ownership by American Tower, CoreSite delivered record new business, selling nearly double the number of megawatts compared to the previous trailing 2-year average, demonstrating the value of the company's interconnection and cloud on-ramp rich ecosystem. This robust growth was driven by increased demand from high-quality new logos and expansions from existing customers driven by secular tailwinds of digital transformation and the demand for hybrid IT solutions.

    此外,在 American Tower 擁有的第一個完整年度中,CoreSite 交付了創紀錄的新業務,與之前連續 2 年的平均值相比,銷售兆瓦數幾乎翻了一番,展示了公司互連和雲入口豐富生態系統的價值.這種強勁的增長是由高質量新標識的需求增加以及數字化轉型的長期順風和對混合 IT 解決方案的需求推動的現有客戶的擴展所推動的。

  • Furthermore, since the announcement of CoreSite acquisition, we successfully executed on our permanent financing plan at attractive terms, including through the issuance of common equity and senior notes as well as our strategic partnership with Stonepeak. These financing activities reduced our leverage from 6.8x at the end of 2021 to 5.4x at the end of 2022 and moved us closer to our target range of 3 to 5x.

    此外,自宣布收購 CoreSite 以來,我們以極具吸引力的條款成功執行了我們的永久融資計劃,包括通過發行普通股和優先票據以及我們與 Stonepeak 的戰略合作夥伴關係。這些融資活動將我們的槓桿率從 2021 年底的 6.8 倍降低到 2022 年底的 5.4 倍,並使我們更接近 3 至 5 倍的目標範圍。

  • Next, I'd like to take a moment to cover the latest developments in India. As anticipated, Vodafone Idea or VIL continued making partial payments in Q4 of 2022, consistent with our outlook, resulting in total revenue reserves of approximately $38 million for the quarter and around $87 million for the year.

    接下來,我想花點時間介紹一下印度的最新動態。正如預期的那樣,Vodafone Idea 或 VIL 在 2022 年第四季度繼續支付部分款項,這與我們的預期一致,導致該季度的總收入儲備約為 3800 萬美元,全年約為 8700 萬美元。

  • Recently, we were pleased to see the completion of the Indian government's conversion of the adjusted gross revenue interest balances to equity in VIL. We view this as a reaffirmation of the government's commitment to support a 3-player private carrier telecommunications market and a critical first step towards the possibility of more stabilized collections from VIL.

    最近,我們很高興地看到印度政府完成了將調整後的總收入利息餘額轉換為 VIL 股權的工作。我們認為這是對政府支持 3 家私營運營商電信市場的承諾的重申,也是朝著從 VIL 收取更穩定的款項的可能性邁出的關鍵的第一步。

  • However, although VIL had committed to pay their billings in full in 2023 and make payments for outstanding balances from prior years in early 2023, they have communicated that they would continue to make partial payments. For that reason, we believe it is prudent to include revenue reserves against their annual billings and other contracted obligations in our 2023 outlook, which we've assumed at $75 million. We will, however, remain focused on collecting what we are contractually owed in full over the course of the year.

    然而,儘管 VIL 承諾在 2023 年全額支付賬單並在 2023 年初支付往年的未清餘額,但他們表示將繼續支付部分款項。出於這個原因,我們認為在我們的 2023 年展望中包括針對他們年度賬單和其他合同義務的收入儲備是謹慎的,我們假設其為 7500 萬美元。然而,我們將繼續專注於在這一年中全額收取合同欠款。

  • In the meantime, we have worked to incrementally better position American Tower and our receivables balance while also demonstrating a level of support for VIL in India's wireless market. This includes the expectation to convert approximately $200 million in existing VIL receivables into optionally convertible debentures pending Vodafone Idea shareholder approval.

    與此同時,我們努力逐步改善 American Tower 的定位和我們的應收賬款餘額,同時也展示了對 VIL 在印度無線市場的支持水平。這包括在 Vodafone Idea 股東批准之前將現有 VIL 應收賬款中約 2 億美元轉換為可選可轉換債券的預期。

  • Upon closing this agreement, we would have elevated the seniority of our pre-existing receivables balance and established an additional level of liquid collateral at American Tower's option. And finally, as we remain focused on stabilizing our India business, collecting our outstanding and future receivables in full and assessing the positioning of our global portfolio, we are currently exploring various strategic options, including the potential sale of an equity stake in our India business.

    完成該協議後,我們將提高現有應收賬款餘額的優先級,並根據 American Tower 的選擇建立額外的流動抵押品水平。最後,由於我們仍然專注於穩定我們的印度業務,全額收取未償還和未來的應收賬款並評估我們全球投資組合的定位,我們目前正在探索各種戰略選擇,包括可能出售我們印度業務的股權.

  • As always, any decision taken will include careful consideration of the growth opportunity and risk profile in the market going forward, valuation and the optimal portfolio and capital structure mix for American Tower and its stakeholders. We will certainly keep our investors informed of any developments as we move forward.

    與往常一樣,做出的任何決定都將包括仔細考慮未來市場的增長機會和風險狀況、估值以及 American Tower 及其利益相關者的最佳投資組合和資本結構組合。在我們前進的過程中,我們一定會讓我們的投資者了解任何發展情況。

  • With that, let's dive into the details of our full year 2022 results. Turning to Slide 6. Full year consolidated property revenue growth was nearly 15% and nearly 18% on an FX-neutral basis, which included a contribution of approximately 11% of growth from Telxius and CoreSite and negative impacts of approximately 2% and 1% from Sprint churn and revenue reserves taken associated with VIL in 2022, respectively.

    有了這個,讓我們深入了解我們 2022 年全年業績的細節。轉到幻燈片 6。在外匯中性基礎上,全年綜合房地產收入增長近 15% 和近 18%,其中包括 Telxius 和 CoreSite 約 11% 的增長貢獻以及約 2% 和 1% 的負面影響分別來自 2022 年與 VIL 相關的 Sprint 流失和收入儲備。

  • Organic tenant billings growth for the full year came in at 3.2%, in line with expectations, complemented by solid growth from new builds with actual volumes coming in at the upper end of our prior outlook range for the year. In the United States and Canada, property revenue growth was nearly 2% with organic tenant billings growth of just over 1%, in line with expectations, including approximately $150 million or 3.4% from colocations and amendments.

    全年的有機租戶賬單增長率為 3.2%,符合預期,並輔之以新建築的穩健增長,實際數量達到了我們先前預測範圍的上限。在美國和加拿大,房地產收入增長近 2%,有機租戶收入增長略高於 1%,符合預期,其中約 1.5 億美元或 3.4% 來自託管和改造。

  • Escalators added another 3%, consistent with historical trends. This growth was partially offset by churn of around 5%, which consisted of roughly 1% in normal course churn with the balance being driven by Sprint.

    自動扶梯又增加了 3%,與歷史趨勢一致。這一增長被約 5% 的流失率部分抵消,其中正常課程流失率約為 1%,其餘部分由 Sprint 驅動。

  • Our international property revenue grew by nearly 13%. International organic tenant billings growth was 6.6%, led by Europe at 8.4% and followed by Latin America at 7.9%, Africa at 7.7% and APAC at 2.6%. Overall, colocation and amendment growth for the full year was around 5% while 6% came from escalators, partially offset by just over 4.5% of churn, the result of decommissioning agreements in Latin America, carrier consolidation in Africa and customer-specific churn in APAC.

    我們的國際房地產收入增長了近 13%。國際有機租戶賬單增長 6.6%,歐洲以 8.4% 居首,其次是拉丁美洲 7.9%,非洲 7.7%,亞太地區 2.6%。總體而言,全年的託管和修改增長約為 5%,而 6% 來自自動扶梯,部分被略高於 4.5% 的客戶流失所抵消,這是拉丁美洲的退役協議、非洲的運營商整合和客戶特定客戶流失的結果亞太地區。

  • Finally, our data center segment contributed over $765 million to our total property revenue in 2022, including a record year of new business from CoreSite as I previously mentioned.

    最後,我們的數據中心部門在 2022 年為我們的財產總收入貢獻了超過 7.65 億美元,其中包括我之前提到的創紀錄的 CoreSite 新業務年。

  • Moving on, adjusted EBITDA grew around 11% to over $6.6 billion or around 13% on an FX-neutral basis for the year. Growth was supported by solid contributions from Telxius and CoreSite and strong flow-through of top line growth achieved through effective cost management.

    繼續前進,調整後的 EBITDA 增長了約 11%,達到 66 億美元以上,在外匯中性基礎上增長了約 13%。增長得到了 Telxius 和 CoreSite 的堅實貢獻以及通過有效的成本管理實現的強勁收入增長的支持。

  • On a consolidated basis, adjusted EBITDA margins were down around 190 basis points as compared to 2021 primarily due to the impacts of the VIL reserves and Sprint churn in the U.S., higher pass-through revenue due to rising fuel costs and the lower margin profile of newly acquired assets, which we believe are well positioned to drive meaningful margin expansion over time.

    在綜合基礎上,調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與 2021 年相比下降了約 190 個基點,這主要是由於美國 VIL 儲備和 Sprint 流失的影響、燃料成本上升導致的轉嫁收入增加以及利潤率下降新收購的資產,我們認為這些資產能夠隨著時間的推移推動有意義的利潤率增長。

  • Moving to the right side of the slide, attributable AFFO and attributable AFFO per share grew by approximately 5.6% and 3.5%, respectively, including over 11% growth on a per share basis in Q4. For the year, both metrics included over 2% in headwinds associated with FX. Attributable AFFO per share of $9.76 exceeded the original 2022 outlook midpoint laid out a year ago by $0.06 despite absorbing the negative impacts of incremental VIL reserves, rate-driven interest costs and FX relative to our initial assumptions.

    轉向幻燈片的右側,應佔 AFFO 和每股應佔 AFFO 分別增長約 5.6% 和 3.5%,其中第四季度每股增長超過 11%。今年,這兩個指標都包含超過 2% 的與外匯相關的不利因素。每股 9.76 美元的權益 AFFO 比一年前最初設定的 2022 年展望中點高出 0.06 美元,儘管吸收了增量 VIL 儲備、利率驅動的利息成本和相對於我們最初假設的外彙的負面影響。

  • Now before I discuss the details of our outlook for 2023, I will start by summarizing a few key highlights and assumptions. First, as we've previously communicated, we expect a meaningful step-up in U.S. and Canada organic tenant billings growth driven by an acceleration in new business backstopped by the comprehensive MLAs we have signed over the last few years together with the sequential improvement in contracted Sprint churn.

    現在,在我討論 2023 年展望的細節之前,我將首先總結一些關鍵亮點和假設。首先,正如我們之前所傳達的那樣,我們預計美國和加拿大的有機租戶賬單增長將出現有意義的增長,這將受到我們在過去幾年簽署的綜合 MLA 的支持下新業務加速的推動以及連續改進簽約 Sprint 流失。

  • Internationally, we expect a strong year of organic tenant billings growth across most of our regions driven by continued strength in organic leasing trends along with contributions from CPI-based escalators, particularly in Europe and Africa. As we've communicated over the past couple of quarters, growth in Latin America will be moderated by churn headwinds associated with a continuation of Telefónica churn in Mexico and Oi churn in Brazil, where we'll see some staggered impacts over the next several years.

    在國際上,我們預計在有機租賃趨勢持續強勁以及基於 CPI 的自動扶梯的貢獻的推動下,我們大部分地區的有機租戶賬單增長強勁,尤其是在歐洲和非洲。正如我們在過去幾個季度所傳達的那樣,拉丁美洲的增長將受到與墨西哥 Telefónica 流失和巴西 Oi 流失相關的流失逆風的影響,我們將在未來幾年看到一些交錯的影響.

  • Second, and as I mentioned earlier, we have factored into our guide an expectation for a continuation in VIL collections volatility, resulting in an assumption of $75 million in revenue reserves for the year.

    其次,正如我之前提到的,我們在指南中考慮了對 VIL 收款波動持續的預期,因此假設今年的收入儲備為 7500 萬美元。

  • Third, given the unprecedented rise in interest rates over the course of 2022, which saw the 1-month LIBOR increased by more than 400 basis points and 10-year treasuries increased by around 250 basis points from the beginning to the end of the year, we expect 2023 to have onetime outsized negative growth headwinds associated with financing costs.

    第三,鑑於 2022 年期間利率空前上升,從年初到年末,1 個月 LIBOR 增加了 400 多個基點,10 年期國債增加了約 250 個基點,我們預計 2023 年將出現與融資成本相關的巨大負增長逆風。

  • Key components driving this assumption include elevated costs on our floating rate debt and to a lesser extent, the refinancing of our 2023 senior note maturities as well as the full year impacts of our 2022 equity-related initiatives, including our common equity issuance and the incremental minority interest and preferred distributions associated with our partnership with Stonepeak. Taken together, we have assumed a roughly 8% headwind to attributable AFFO per share growth associated with financing costs in 2023.

    推動這一假設的關鍵因素包括我們浮動利率債務的成本上升,在較小程度上,我們 2023 年到期的優先票據的再融資以及我們 2022 年股票相關舉措的全年影響,包括我們的普通股發行和增量與我們與 Stonepeak 的合作關係相關的少數股東權益和優先分配。綜上所述,我們假設 2023 年與融資成本相關的 AFFO 每股收益增長將出現大約 8% 的逆風。

  • Next, our initial outlook reflects estimated negative translational FX impacts of approximately $151 million for property revenue, $64 million for adjusted EBITDA and $47 million for attributable AFFO as compared to 2022. And finally, looking beyond the challenges I mentioned associated with interest rates, VIL reserves and FX, our core business continues to demonstrate strong performance and resiliency, representing nearly double-digit year-over-year growth at the attributable AFFO level.

    接下來,我們的初步展望反映了與 2022 年相比,估計的負面轉化外匯影響對財產收入約 1.51 億美元,對調整後的 EBITDA 約 6400 萬美元,對應佔 AFFO 約 4700 萬美元。最後,除了我提到的與利率相關的挑戰外,VIL儲備和外匯,我們的核心業務繼續表現出強勁的表現和彈性,代表 AFFO 權益水平的同比增長近兩位數。

  • While this performance is fueled by the solid organic leasing trends we're seeing across our global portfolio, it's further amplified by exceptional conversion rates through AFFO, achieved through a keen focus on cost management across our business.

    雖然我們在全球投資組合中看到穩固的有機租賃趨勢推動了這一業績,但通過 AFFO 的卓越轉化率進一步放大了這一業績,這是通過高度關注我們業務的成本管理實現的。

  • With that, let's dive into the numbers. Moving on to the details of Slide 7. At the midpoint of our outlook, we expect total property revenues of nearly $10.8 billion, representing growth of approximately 3% or approximately 4% absent the incremental reserves assumed for VIL in 2023. Our guide includes expected cash revenue growth of around $230 million in the U.S. and Canada and $245 million of FX-neutral growth in our international regions, excluding the 2023 VIL reserves of $75 million. We also expect data centers to contribute roughly $55 million of growth in cash revenue to the property segment in 2023. Lastly, as I mentioned in my earlier remarks, we anticipate a modest FX headwind of just under 1.5% to consolidated growth.

    有了這個,讓我們深入研究這些數字。轉到幻燈片 7 的詳細信息。在我們展望的中點,我們預計財產總收入將近 108 億美元,如果不考慮 2023 年 VIL 的增量儲備金,則增長約 3% 或約 4%。我們的指南包括預期美國和加拿大的現金收入增長約 2.3 億美元,國際地區的外匯中性增長 2.45 億美元,不包括 2023 年 7500 萬美元的 VIL 儲備。我們還預計數據中心將在 2023 年為房地產部門貢獻大約 5500 萬美元的現金收入增長。最後,正如我在之前的發言中提到的,我們預計綜合增長將略低於 1.5% 的適度外匯逆風。

  • Turning to Slide 8. We expect organic growth to contribute meaningfully to our property revenue growth assumptions. Starting with the U.S. and Canada, we anticipate organic tenant billings growth of approximately 5% or greater than 6% excluding Sprint churn. This expectation includes record levels of year-over-year colocation and amendment growth of around $220 million, a nearly 50% increase over the levels achieved in 2022 and a 60% increase as compared to the trailing 3-year average. Of the $220 million, over 90% is locked in through MLA-driven use right fee commencements and carryover growth.

    轉到幻燈片 8。我們預計有機增長將對我們的房地產收入增長假設做出有意義的貢獻。從美國和加拿大開始,我們預計有機租戶賬單增長約 5% 或超過 6%(不包括 Sprint 流失)。這一預期包括創紀錄的同比託管和修正增長約 2.2 億美元,比 2022 年實現的水平增長近 50%,與過去 3 年的平均水平相比增長 60%。在 2.2 億美元中,超過 90% 是通過 MLA 驅動的使用權費用開始和結轉增長鎖定的。

  • On the churn side of the equation, after incurring the largest impact of Sprint churn last year, we expect churn of around 3% in 2023, including an approximate 1% impact associated with Sprint, which would represent a year-over-year improvement of over 200 basis points in the segment.

    在等式的流失方面,在去年受到 Sprint 流失的最大影響之後,我們預計 2023 年的流失率約為 3%,其中包括與 Sprint 相關的約 1% 的影響,這意味著同比改善該部分超過 200 個基點。

  • Moving to Latin America. We expect organic tenant billings growth of greater than 2% for the year driven by relatively consistent colocation and amendment activity and continued solid contributions from CPI-based escalators of approximately 8%. This escalator rate does represent a step down from 2022 levels as we saw inflation in markets like Brazil moderate in 2022 as compared to 2021.

    搬到拉丁美洲。我們預計,在相對一致的主機託管和改造活動以及基於 CPI 的自動扶梯約 8% 的持續穩定貢獻的推動下,今年的有機租戶賬單增長將超過 2%。這個自動扶梯利率確實代表了從 2022 年水平下降的一步,因為我們看到與 2021 年相比,2022 年巴西等市場的通貨膨脹率有所緩和。

  • As we've previously highlighted, higher churn of around 8% is partially offsetting gross growth due to the expected continuation of Telefónica churn in Mexico and the early part of what we expect to be staggered Oi churn in Brazil.

    正如我們之前強調的那樣,由於墨西哥 Telefónica 客戶流失的預期持續以及我們預計巴西 Oi 客戶流失的早期部分,約 8% 的較高客戶流失率部分抵消了毛增長。

  • Similar to last year, we do expect to receive some settlement payments from Telefónica over the course of the year, which will be captured outside of the organic tenant billings growth metric. We've assumed approximately $50 million in 2023 payments as compared to the over $80 million we received from Telefónica Mexico and Nextel Brazil in 2022.

    與去年類似,我們確實希望在這一年中從 Telefónica 收到一些結算付款,這將在有機租戶賬單增長指標之外獲得。我們假設 2023 年的付款約為 5000 萬美元,而 2022 年我們從 Telefónica Mexico 和 Nextel Brazil 收到的付款超過 8000 萬美元。

  • Turning to Asia Pacific. We are guiding to approximately 4% organic tenant billings growth in 2023, including churn of around 4%, which is around 70 basis points lower than the 2022 churn rate. We expect colocation and amendment growth contributions to ramp up compared to 2022, coming in around 6%, fueled by the rollout of 5G networks. However, it is important to note that the reserves we've assumed for VIL in our guide reside outside of this metric, consistent with past practices.

    轉向亞太地區。我們預計 2023 年有機租戶賬單增長率約為 4%,包括約 4% 的流失率,這比 2022 年的流失率低約 70 個基點。在 5G 網絡推出的推動下,我們預計與 2022 年相比,託管和修改增長的貢獻將增加,達到 6% 左右。但是,請務必注意,我們在指南中為 VIL 假設的儲備不在該指標範圍內,這與過去的做法一致。

  • Turning to Europe. 2023 organic tenant billings growth is expected to be 7% to 8%, which is slightly lower than 2022 due to the mathematical benefits realized last year, given Telxius was only in the prior year base for a partial year. However, this does suggest a solid acceleration off our Q4 2022 organic growth rate of around 6%, which represents a more normalized comparison.

    轉向歐洲。由於去年實現的數學收益,預計 2023 年有機租戶賬單增長將達到 7% 至 8%,略低於 2022 年,因為 Telxius 僅在前一年的部分年份處於基數。然而,這確實表明我們 2022 年第四季度的有機增長率將穩步加速,達到 6% 左右,這代表了一個更正常的比較。

  • On the colocation and amendment front, we anticipate 2% to 3% growth while growth from escalators stand at roughly 6%, reflecting the benefits of CPI-linked escalators across the majority of our European footprint. Churn is expected to decline to around 1%, reaping the benefits of the lower churn profile of our recently acquired Telxius portfolio.

    在託管和修正方面,我們預計增長 2% 至 3%,而自動扶梯的增長約為 6%,反映出與 CPI 相關的自動扶梯在我們大部分歐洲足跡中的優勢。預計流失率將下降至 1% 左右,這得益於我們最近收購的 Telxius 產品組合的較低流失率。

  • Finally, in Africa, we expect a solid acceleration off of 2022 with expected organic tenant billings growth of approximately 9%. This includes colocation and amendment contributions of around 6% along with escalators of around 10% and expected 450 basis point increase from 2022 levels. This will be partially offset by an expectation of elevated churn of greater than 6% as carrier consolidation continues to work its way through the financial metrics.

    最後,在非洲,我們預計到 2022 年將穩步加速,預計有機租戶收入增長約 9%。這包括約 6% 的託管和修正貢獻以及約 10% 的自動扶梯,預計比 2022 年的水平增加 450 個基點。隨著運營商整合繼續通過財務指標發揮作用,預計客戶流失率將超過 6%,這將部分抵消這一影響。

  • Moving on to Slide 9. At the midpoint of our outlook, we expect adjusted EBITDA growth of approximately 4% and around 5% absent the incremental reserves assumed for VIL in 2023 while absorbing approximately 1% in FX headwinds. We expect this growth to be achieved through solid cash conversion rates of 85% to 90%, the result of prudent cost controls across the business and the expectations for another strong year from our U.S. services business.

    轉到幻燈片 9。在我們展望的中點,我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 增長率約為 4% 和 5% 左右,不包括 2023 年 VIL 假設的增量準備金,同時吸收約 1% 的外匯逆風。我們預計這一增長將通過 85% 至 90% 的穩健現金轉換率實現,這是對整個業務進行審慎成本控制的結果,以及我們對美國服務業務又一個強勁表現的預期。

  • Turning to Slide 10. We expect attributable AFFO per share to decrease by $0.16 on a reported basis while remaining flat year-over-year absent the impacts of the 2023 VIL revenue reserves. As mentioned, we expect growth to be meaningfully impacted by financing costs, which include a rate-driven increase to cash interest expense along with the incremental full year impact of minority interest and preferred distributions associated with our U.S. data center business.

    轉到幻燈片 10。我們預計,在報告的基礎上,每股應佔 AFFO 將減少 0.16 美元,而在沒有 2023 年 VIL 收入儲備的影響的情況下,同比持平。如前所述,我們預計增長將受到融資成本的顯著影響,其中包括利率驅動的現金利息支出增加,以及與我們的美國數據中心業務相關的少數股東權益和優先分配的全年增量影響。

  • Together with the common equity share issuance in 2022, financing costs are expected to provide a significant onetime growth headwinds of approximately 8% in 2023. As I mentioned earlier, absent the impact of financing costs, FX and the 2023 VIL reserves, our business is demonstrating solid growth contributions of around 9%.

    連同 2022 年的普通股發行,預計融資成本將在 2023 年造成約 8% 的重大一次性增長阻力。正如我之前提到的,如果沒有融資成本、外彙和 2023 年 VIL 儲備的影響,我們的業務是顯示出約 9% 的穩健增長貢獻。

  • Moving on to Slide 11. I'll review our capital plans for 2023 and our balance sheet progress and priorities for the upcoming year. In 2023, we will continue to deliver returns to our shareholders through the growth of our dividend. In subject to Board approval, we expect to distribute approximately $3 billion, representing an approximately 10% year-on-year growth rate on a per share basis.

    轉到幻燈片 11。我將回顧我們 2023 年的資本計劃以及我們的資產負債表進展和來年的優先事項。 2023 年,我們將繼續通過增加股息回報股東。經董事會批准,我們預計將分配約 30 億美元,相當於每股約 10% 的同比增長率。

  • In addition, we expect to deploy around $1.7 billion in CapEx, of which 90% will be discretionary. This will largely be spent continuing the success of our new build program internationally, which assumes the construction of around 4,000 sites at the midpoint. We also expect data center capital to increase modestly as we seek to replenish the record capacity sold in 2022 and maintain appropriate levels of sellable capacity.

    此外,我們預計將部署約 17 億美元的資本支出,其中 90% 是可自由支配的。這將主要用於繼續我們在國際上取得成功的新建設計劃,該計劃假設在中點建設約 4,000 個站點。我們還預計數據中心資本將適度增加,因為我們尋求補充 2022 年售出的創紀錄容量並保持適當的可售容量水平。

  • Moving to the right side of the slide. As you can see, we made tremendous progress towards strengthening our balance sheet over the course of 2022, putting us ahead of the deleveraging path we committed to with the rating agencies, which actually afforded us the flexibility to repurchase a modest number of our shares in Q4.

    移動到幻燈片的右側。如您所見,我們在 2022 年期間在加強資產負債表方面取得了巨大進展,使我們領先於我們與評級機構承諾的去槓桿化道路,這實際上使我們能夠靈活地回購我們在Q4.

  • Throughout 2023, we will continue to be guided by our long-standing financial policies as we execute on our financing plans. This includes the refinancing of maturing debt while leveraging our strong liquidity position as needed to remain opportunistic as we access the capital markets.

    在整個 2023 年,我們在執行融資計劃時將繼續以我們的長期財務政策為指導。這包括對到期債務進行再融資,同時根據需要利用我們強大的流動性頭寸,在我們進入資本市場時保持機會主義。

  • Finally, we remain committed to our investment-grade credit rating. And our priorities over the course of 2023 and into 2024 remain on deleveraging our balance sheet back down to the 3 to 5x range. Consistent with our recent comments, at this time, we do not see any material M&A in our pipeline that would alter these areas of focus.

    最後,我們仍然致力於我們的投資級信用評級。我們在 2023 年和 2024 年期間的優先事項仍然是將我們的資產負債表去槓桿化,回到 3 到 5 倍的範圍。與我們最近的評論一致,目前,我們沒有看到任何會改變這些重點領域的重大併購。

  • Turning to Slide 12. And in summary, we delivered strong results in 2022, demonstrating the resiliency of our business model in the face of various macro-related and customer-specific challenges. Our global portfolio of assets and operational capabilities continue to prove critical in meeting the growing demands of our customers and the customers they serve.

    轉到幻燈片 12。總而言之,我們在 2022 年取得了強勁的成果,展示了我們的商業模式在面對各種宏觀相關和客戶特定挑戰時的彈性。我們的全球資產組合和運營能力繼續被證明對於滿足我們的客戶和他們所服務的客戶不斷增長的需求至關重要。

  • We saw record new build volumes internationally and record leasing within our CoreSite business and experienced a steady acceleration in colocation and amendment growth as we exited 2022, which we expect to continue into 2023. As we look ahead, we expect to further build on the successes of the recent years and leverage our portfolio to drive strong recurring growth on the back of consistent secular technology trends for many years to come.

    我們在國際上看到了創紀錄的新建建築量,在我們的 CoreSite 業務中創下了創紀錄的租賃量,並且在我們退出 2022 年時經歷了託管和修改增長的穩步加速,我們預計這將持續到 2023 年。展望未來,我們希望在成功的基礎上進一步發展近年來,並利用我們的產品組合在未來多年持續的長期技術趨勢的支持下推動強勁的經常性增長。

  • With that, operator, we can open up the line for questions.

    有了這個,接線員,我們可以打開問題熱線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Simon Flannery from Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Simon Flannery。

  • Simon William Flannery - MD

    Simon William Flannery - MD

  • Tom, you talked about scaling the core, and Rod just talked about no material M&A in the pipeline, thanks for that. Just give us a little bit more color, if you could, on how you see the portfolio today. And is this the mix of assets that you want? You've obviously talked about potentially monetizing some of India. But any kind of areas where you feel like you're overexposed or underexposed? And how long is this sort of approach of not doing large deals likely to last?

    湯姆,你談到了擴展核心,而羅德剛剛談到了管道中沒有實質性的併購,謝謝。如果可以的話,請給我們更多關於您如何看待今天的投資組合的顏色。這是您想要的資產組合嗎?你顯然已經談到了可能將印度的一些地區貨幣化。但是您覺得自己曝光過度或曝光不足的任何類型的區域?這種不做大筆交易的做法可能會持續多久?

  • And then you talked about the strong results in CoreSite. You did buy some land there. I've noticed your future development pipeline potential goes up quite significantly, probably as a result of that. Just give us some color as how you think about beyond just incremental capacity, something larger, given the opportunities you see there.

    然後你談到了 CoreSite 的強大結果。你確實在那裡買了一些土地。我注意到您未來的開發管道潛力顯著上升,可能是因為這個原因。鑑於您在那裡看到的機會,請給我們一些顏色,作為您對增量容量之外的思考方式,更大的東西。

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Sure, Simon. You got a lot going on in that question. But let me try to peel it back and then remind me if I left anything out.

    是的。當然,西蒙。你在那個問題上有很多事情要做。但是讓我試著把它剝開,然後提醒我是否遺漏了什麼。

  • With regards to scale of the core, it really comes down to really 3 pieces. One is to just do what we do every day, that's servicing our customers and driving that organic growth. And we've really been very focused on that in the U.S. as you saw our expectations for 2023 and beyond because those large-scale relationships that we put in place with our -- the critical carriers in the United States are long term in nature.

    關於核心的規模,實際上可以歸結為 3 塊。一是只做我們每天都在做的事情,即為我們的客戶提供服務並推動有機增長。正如您看到我們對 2023 年及以後的預期一樣,我們真的非常關注美國的這一點,因為我們與美國的關鍵航空公司建立的那些大規模關係本質上是長期的。

  • And so we now have a very predictable growth path in the U.S. And the U.S. is the foundation really of our entire business. And what I've always said is that we enjoy the benefits of diversification because there are going to be some markets that are going to grow significantly, others that are going to grow less so simply because the methodology that all of our customers use for build are different. And they all form those different signed waves as we've talked about in the past. And we can -- if you can layer on all those signed paths, you're able to get some predictable rates of growth.

    因此,我們現在在美國有一條非常可預測的增長路徑。美國是我們整個業務的真正基礎。我一直說的是,我們享受多元化帶來的好處,因為有些市場將顯著增長,而另一些市場將增長較少,這很簡單,因為我們所有客戶都使用構建的方法是不同的。正如我們過去談到的那樣,它們都形成了那些不同的符號波。我們可以——如果你能在所有這些有符號的路徑上分層,你就能獲得一些可預測的增長率。

  • And so we're excited about coming out of '22 strongly. We expect higher rates of growth in '23 and in particular, within the United States. From a total portfolio perspective, we're constantly looking at where we can maximize value. And we are in 26 countries today, and there could be certain markets there where it may just make sense for us from a number of different perspectives for us to peel back some of those assets. Don't have anything in mind as we speak. We're constantly evaluating it. That's kind of what we do.

    因此,我們很高興能強勢走出 22 年。我們預計 23 世紀會有更高的增長率,尤其是在美國。從整體投資組合的角度來看,我們一直在尋找可以最大化價值的地方。我們今天在 26 個國家/地區開展業務,那裡可能有某些市場,從許多不同的角度來看,我們剝離其中一些資產可能對我們來說是有意義的。我們說話的時候不要有任何想法。我們一直在評估它。這就是我們所做的。

  • And with regards to India, India is a market where they're going to have a higher population than China, if not now, very soon. They have huge penetration, huge data usage. And it's a market that we would like to be able to continue to keep our toe in because we continue to believe that there is significant growth there.

    至於印度,印度是一個人口將超過中國的市場,即使不是現在,也很快。他們有巨大的滲透率,巨大的數據使用量。這是一個我們希望能夠繼續保持警惕的市場,因為我們仍然相信那裡有顯著的增長。

  • To the extent that we can bring in a third-party player to monetize the particular part of the asset and reallocate some of that capital in some other parts of the market, we'll look at that. It's purely opportunistic, and we look at every kind of available opportunity as we speak.

    在某種程度上,我們可以引入第三方玩家來將資產的特定部分貨幣化,並將部分資本重新分配到市場的其他部分,我們將對此進行研究。這純粹是機會主義的,我們在說話時會考慮各種可用的機會。

  • With regards to our data center business, of course, I -- had a terrific 2022, record sales in '22. And they're replenishing capacity where they needed. We've added land in Denver and New Jersey, where we needed some additional runway. But we've got a good amount of capacity in the hopper. We're building out another 30 megawatts of capacity under construction. We actually got 1/3 of that already pre-leased, and we have 224 megawatts for future development.

    當然,關於我們的數據中心業務,我在 2022 年表現出色,在 22 年創下了銷售記錄。他們在需要的地方補充產能。我們在丹佛和新澤西增加了土地,我們需要一些額外的跑道。但是我們在料斗中有很大的容量。我們正在建設另外 30 兆瓦的容量。實際上,我們已經預租了其中的 1/3,並且我們有 224 兆瓦的電力用於未來的開發。

  • So there's an incredible demand, as you well know, as we've heard from other competitors in the market for interconnection hubs. And that's what I really refer to as core side. It's not a colocation facility. It's an interconnection hub creating opportunities for new logos. We added over 100 logos last year. And we're really excited about the opportunity and the demand that we see in the market for activity relative to our data center business in the United States. Did I miss anything, Simon?

    因此,如您所知,正如我們從互連集線器市場上的其他競爭對手那裡聽到的那樣,存在令人難以置信的需求。這就是我真正所說的核心方面。它不是託管設施。它是一個互連樞紐,為新標識創造了機會。去年我們添加了 100 多個徽標。我們對市場上與我們在美國的數據中心業務相關的活動的機會和需求感到非常興奮。我錯過了什麼嗎,西蒙?

  • Simon William Flannery - MD

    Simon William Flannery - MD

  • Well, I guess, just in terms of the scale M&A, you've obviously done a lot of deals over the years. If you get back down into that 3 to 5x leverage, is that when we think about you're potentially looking at larger deals again?

    好吧,我想,就併購規模而言,這些年來你們顯然已經完成了很多交易。如果你回到 3 到 5 倍的槓桿率,那是不是我們認為你可能會再次尋找更大的交易?

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • Interesting, Simon. We have a lot of different ways of being able to secure M&A. And we demonstrated that really with what we've done in Europe with our [private] capital, even in the United States with Stonepeak in terms of private capital. So I think the capital is there. For us, yes, it is a function that our objective is to delever. I really do want to get down to that 5x kind of leverage. And so that remains a top priority for the business. But on top of that, we want to continue to feed our build program. We had record build last year. We have a strong build program this year.

    有趣的是,西蒙。我們有很多不同的方式來確保併購。我們用我們在歐洲用我們的[私人]資本所做的事情證明了這一點,甚至在美國用私人資本方面的 Stonepeak 也證明了這一點。所以我認為資本在那裡。對我們來說,是的,我們的目標是去槓桿化。我真的很想降低到 5 倍的槓桿率。因此,這仍然是企業的首要任務。但最重要的是,我們希望繼續提供我們的構建程序。去年我們創造了記錄。今年我們有一個強大的建設計劃。

  • With regards to the M&A, there's just still a significant difference between the valuations, the bid and the ask. And there's nothing out there that's compelling as we see it today. And so our focus continues to be on, as I said, what we do every day, driving organic growth, driving efficiency. You see we expect margin improvement in '23 versus '22 and supporting our build program. Our customers are very active around the world from a build perspective. And I think in the last several years, we brought in like 25,000 -- we built like 25,000 sites. And so there's a significant opportunity there, and the returns are incredibly compelling on that new build program.

    關於併購,估值、出價和要價之間仍然存在顯著差異。沒有什麼像我們今天所看到的那樣引人注目。因此,正如我所說,我們的重點仍然放在我們每天所做的事情上,即推動有機增長,提高效率。你看,我們預計 23 年的利潤率會比 22 年有所改善,並支持我們的建設計劃。從構建的角度來看,我們的客戶在世界各地非常活躍。我認為在過去的幾年裡,我們引進了大約 25,000 個——我們建立了大約 25,000 個站點。所以那裡有一個重要的機會,而且這個新的構建項目的回報非常有吸引力。

  • So as I said, there's just nothing at this point in time that we see out there that's interesting really from an M&A perspective. And we continue to just keep our head down in terms of funding our build program and delevering our business.

    因此,正如我所說,從併購的角度來看,目前我們還沒有看到真正有趣的東西。我們繼續在為我們的建設計劃提供資金和去槓桿化我們的業務方面保持低調。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Rick Prentiss from Raymond James.

    你的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Rick Prentiss。

  • Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • A couple of questions. I'll give it to you part by part. First, as we think about the guidance, and thanks for all the color there, how should we think about in U.S., Canada the pacing throughout the year? Is it going to ramp through the year? Does it start high and come down? Is it kind of balanced? But opening question everybody is trying to figure out what is happening with the pacing in '23 in U.S., Canada.

    幾個問題。我會一部分一部分地給你。首先,當我們考慮指導並感謝那裡的所有顏色時,我們應該如何考慮美國和加拿大全年的節奏?它會在今年逐漸增加嗎?它會開始高漲嗎?它有點平衡嗎?但開放的問題是每個人都在試圖弄清楚 23 年美國和加拿大的節奏發生了什麼。

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • Actually, Rick, it's going to be very consistent, very linear throughout the year. And so largely, it's a function of the kind of relationships and the agreements that we have in place. But we would expect it to be very consistent in the U.S. throughout the year.

    事實上,里克,全年都會非常一致,非常線性。在很大程度上,它取決於我們現有的關係類型和協議。但我們希望它在美國全年都非常一致。

  • Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Okay. And the related question to extrapolate from that is last year at this time, you kind of laid out some thoughts on longer-term leasing activity in the U.S., Canada 2023 through '27 being above 5% and then [extent] being above -- equal or above 6%. How are you feeling about that exiting '23, looking at '24, '25, '26, '27, as you gave us a year ago?

    好的。從去年這個時候推斷的相關問題是,你對美國、加拿大的長期租賃活動提出了一些想法,2023 年到 27 年超過 5%,然後 [extent] 高於——等於或高於 6%。您對一年前給我們的 23 年退出、24 年、25 年、26 年、27 年感覺如何?

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, exactly the same. I mean, it's -- as we have said, as we have predicted, as we have thought, and again, it comes down to largely the relationships that we have with our customers. We see strong demand coming out. I still think we're in the early innings really with 5G. Our customers on average are probably on about half of our sites. So there is a significant amount of opportunity there. But it also comes down to the types of relationships and the arrangements that we have with regards to our MLAs. So we are underscoring really what we had said a year ago relative to growth coming out of '23 through '27.

    是的,完全一樣。我的意思是,正如我們所說,正如我們所預測的那樣,正如我們所想的那樣,這主要歸結為我們與客戶之間的關係。我們看到強勁的需求。我仍然認為我們真的處於 5G 的早期階段。我們的客戶平均可能在我們大約一半的網站上。所以那裡有很多機會。但這也歸結為關係的類型和我們在 MLA 方面的安排。因此,我們實際上是在強調我們一年前所說的與 23 年到 27 年的增長相關的內容。

  • Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Okay. And the last one for me, taking that to the bottom line, attributable AFFO per share last year at this time mentioned that '21 to '27 maybe above -- at or above 10%. We've had a couple of tough years here with Sprint churn. '23, we've got financing costs, still some Indian reserves. How do we think throw away '21 to '27 and just say, hey, as we look at '23 as a new base point, how are you feeling about that ability to grow attributable AFFO per share, dividend per share from this point onwards?

    好的。最後一個對我來說,把它作為底線,去年此時的每股 AFFO 權益提到'21 到'27 可能高於 - 等於或高於 10%。我們在 Sprint 客戶流失方面度過了艱難的幾年。 '23,我們有融資成本,還有一些印度儲備。我們如何看待從 21 年到 27 年,然後說,嘿,當我們將 23 年視為一個新的基點時,您如何看待從這一點開始增加每股應佔 AFFO 和每股股息的能力?

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, I mean, you've got a couple of questions in there. We're not going to -- we're not focused on rolling out a long-term guide at this point, as you would expect. But there have been some significant macro environment changes that happened around the world that we use to underwrite kind of that double-digit expectation, which I think is what you're referring to.

    嗯,我的意思是,你有幾個問題。我們不會 - 我們不會像您期望的那樣專注於在這一點上推出長期指南。但是世界各地發生了一些重大的宏觀環境變化,我們用這些變化來支持那種兩位數的期望,我認為這就是你所指的。

  • But I'm not letting the foot off the gas in the business, okay? We're not changing anything at this point in time. Our core growth, as Rod just walked through, really remains really, really strong. And we don't have any expectations for that kind of growth diminishing. We see kind of 4G, 5G being rolled out across all of our footprints, which really gives us a lot of comfort in terms of being able to suggest that, that growth is going to continue. Now also having the types of relationships that we do with our customers in the United States helps underpin a lot of that growth.

    但我不會在生意上鬆懈,好嗎?我們目前不會更改任何內容。正如 Rod 剛剛走過的那樣,我們的核心增長確實非常非常強勁。我們對這種增長減弱沒有任何期望。我們看到某種類型的 4G、5G 正在我們所有的足跡中推出,這確實給了我們很大的安慰,因為我們能夠表明,這種增長將繼續下去。現在,我們與美國客戶建立的那種關係也有助於鞏固這種增長。

  • The interest rates, Rod walked through the impact of rates. It's kind of a reset in '23. I believe it to be kind of more of a one-off, if you will, in '23. So we remain really bullish on going forward. As I said, I'm not going to talk about long-term guide, but I'm not letting the gas -- letting the foot off the gas at all within the business.

    利率,羅德經歷了利率的影響。這有點像 23 年的重置。我相信它更像是一次性的,如果你願意的話,在 23 年。因此,我們仍然非常看好未來。正如我所說,我不會談論長期指南,但我不會放氣——在業務中完全不放氣。

  • With regards to -- of our dividend program, as you all know, you're a REIT expert. Our policy is just followed our REIT TI. And it's been very consistent. We've been able to enjoy double-digit rates of growth on our dividend for the better part of the last 10 years actually, which has been very supportive. And we continue to be -- we continue to feel that our dividend is an important part of our total shareholder return. So we're looking at 10% dividend, as Rod talked about this year. It's difficult really to predict what that might be. It depends upon what we bring into the REIT, what's not in the REIT, obviously, what kind of M&A exists out there.

    關於我們的股息計劃,眾所周知,您是 REIT 專家。我們的政策只是遵循我們的 REIT TI。而且一直非常一致。實際上,在過去 10 年的大部分時間裡,我們的股息增長率一直保持兩位數,這非常有利。我們繼續 - 我們繼續認為我們的股息是我們股東總回報的重要組成部分。所以我們正在考慮 10% 的股息,正如羅德今年所說的那樣。真的很難預測那可能是什麼。這取決於我們將什麼帶入房地產投資信託基金,什麼不在房地產投資信託基金中,顯然,那裡存在什麼樣的併購。

  • It could drop a little bit to high single digits. But again, we continue to expect it to grow significantly. And as I said, it's an important piece of our overall total shareholder return.

    它可能會下降到高個位數。但同樣,我們繼續期望它會顯著增長。正如我所說,這是我們整體股東回報的重要組成部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins from Citi.

    你的下一個問題來自花旗的 Michael Rollins。

  • Michael Ian Rollins - MD & U.S. Telecoms Analyst

    Michael Ian Rollins - MD & U.S. Telecoms Analyst

  • Just a couple of follow-ups. So first, and maybe this is a slightly different question on the U.S. leasing environment. But you outlined the percentage of revenue tied to comprehensive deals. I'm just curious if you can unpack where the flex could be in U.S. performance, both in 2023 and maybe going forward as you think about the organic leasing growth potential of the U.S. business.

    只是一些後續行動。所以首先,也許這是一個關於美國租賃環境的稍微不同的問題。但是您概述了與綜合交易相關的收入百分比。我只是很好奇,您是否可以在 2023 年以及考慮美國企業的有機租賃增長潛力時,解開美國業績的彈性所在。

  • And then thinking a little bit more about the percent of revenue that you have tied to comprehensive deals. You shared a lot over the last couple of years on how the U.S. has been shaping up on that front. Can you share with us how other regions fit in terms of the percent of revenue tied to comprehensive deals? And as you work with your customers, are there aspirations that you have in different markets to get that to certain levels over time?

    然後再多考慮一下與綜合交易相關的收入百分比。在過去的幾年裡,你分享了很多關於美國在這方面的進展情況。您能否與我們分享一下其他地區與綜合交易相關的收入百分比如何?當您與客戶合作時,您是否希望在不同的市場中隨著時間的推移將其達到一定水平?

  • Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Michael, this is Rod. I'll start here, and Tom can certainly join in. So as I said in the U.S., the leasing activity is really strong. And most of our revenue in the U.S. is underpinned through what we refer to as the holistic agreements, which I think everyone is very familiar with. But we've seen contributions from colocations and amendments rise from about $150 million in '22, up to $220 million in '23. That drives about a 5% contribution to our organic tenant billings growth. And as Tom mentioned in his previous answer, we see about 90% of that locked in for 2023.

    邁克爾,這是羅德。我將從這裡開始,湯姆當然可以加入。正如我在美國所說,租賃活動非常強勁。我們在美國的大部分收入都是通過我們所說的整體協議來支撐的,我認為每個人都非常熟悉。但我們已經看到託管和修改的貢獻從 22 年的約 1.5 億美元增加到 23 年的 2.2 億美元。這為我們的有機租戶賬單增長帶來了約 5% 的貢獻。正如湯姆在他之前的回答中提到的那樣,我們看到大約 90% 的資金鎖定在 2023 年。

  • And the long-term guidance that Rick asked about, we are continuing to target equal to or greater than 5% between '23 out to '27. And a fair amount of that activity, both the underlying revenue and the revenue growth, is locked in as part of these holistic deals. Now of course, as we move beyond 2023, that 90% will come down maybe to about 2/3 or so by the time you get in the outer years. And that's just a function of getting closer to the end of some of the agreements, and chances are some agreements will be rewritten sort of along the way. So we feel really good about the visibility we have into the U.S. leasing market and the strength that we're seeing in the U.S. market, particularly because of our assets and the way that we drive these agreements.

    而里克詢問的長期指導,我們將繼續在 23 年到 27 年之間設定等於或大於 5% 的目標。作為這些整體交易的一部分,相當一部分活動,包括基礎收入和收入增長,都被鎖定了。現在當然,隨著我們超過 2023 年,當你進入外年時,這 90% 可能會下降到大約 2/3 左右。這只是一些協議接近尾聲的一個功能,而且一些協議很可能會在某種程度上被重寫。因此,我們對美國租賃市場的知名度以及我們在美國市場看到的實力感到非常滿意,特別是因為我們的資產和我們推動這些協議的方式。

  • Now your question kind of refers to flex. And I think what you mean there is where is the potential upside? And of course, there is a potential upside to the extent that there's faster uptake on 5G utilization in the U.S. And if that requires carriers to densify the networks a little bit quicker, and we see a faster conversion to more colocations and fewer amendments going forward, that could certainly provide some upside.

    現在你的問題是指 flex。我認為你的意思是潛在的上行空間在哪裡?當然,如果美國對 5G 的利用速度更快,那麼這有一個潛在的好處。如果這需要運營商更快地密集化網絡,我們會看到更快地轉換為更多的主機託管和更少的修改。 ,這肯定會提供一些好處。

  • And then depending on just the build of some of the carriers. And certainly, DISH comes to mind as they build a greenfield network to the extent that they go beyond their minimum commitments with us, that could certainly be some upside as well. So I would really kind of watch -- certainly watch DISH. I would watch the other carriers and see the 5G utilization. When some of these new applications come out for 5G, we'll see what kind of bandwidth constraints that puts on networks and when network densification may end up happening. But it's a pretty exciting time in the U.S. market, particularly when you look at the 5G networks and potential applications coming down the pike. So I think that kind of covers off the points around the U.S. leasing.

    然後僅取決於某些運營商的構建。當然,當他們建立一個綠地網絡時,他們會想到 DISH,超出他們對我們的最低承諾,這當然也有一些好處。所以我真的會看——當然是看 DISH。我會觀察其他運營商並查看 5G 利用率。當其中一些新應用針對 5G 推出時,我們將看到對網絡施加了什麼樣的帶寬限制,以及網絡緻密化何時可能最終發生。但在美國市場,這是一個非常激動人心的時刻,尤其是當你看到 5G 網絡和潛在應用即將到來時。所以我認為這種情況涵蓋了美國租賃的要點。

  • When you think about our international business, we don't have holistic deals in the same way in a material fashion outside the U.S. They are much more traditional green, more of an a la carte, kind of pay as you go around the globe. So that's what I would say about that point, Michael.

    當你想到我們的國際業務時,我們在美國以外的物質時尚方面沒有以同樣的方式進行整體交易。它們更傳統的綠色,更多的是點菜,在全球範圍內支付。這就是我要說的,邁克爾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of David Barden from Bank of America.

    你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 David Barden。

  • David William Barden - MD

    David William Barden - MD

  • So I guess the first one would be, Tom, thank you for your commentary around kind of the commitment to deleveraging. And I think you said, "there's nothing compelling out there", "significant differences between bid and ask" on the buy side of that equation.

    所以我想第一個是,湯姆,感謝你對去槓桿化承諾的評論。我想你說過,在等式的買方方面,“沒有什麼令人信服的”,“出價和要價之間存在顯著差異”。

  • So to the extent that is true, is that what's informing your openness now to looking at an equity sale of the India market? Meaning that if things are too expensive to buy, maybe now is the right time to sell. And is that exclusive to the India market? Or as you look across the portfolio, could you make the same argument that maybe it's an interesting time to monetize Latin America or other pieces of that?

    因此,就真實情況而言,這是否表明您現在對考慮印度市場的股權出售持開放態度?這意味著如果東西太貴而無法購買,也許現在是賣出的合適時機。那是印度市場獨有的嗎?或者,當您審視整個投資組合時,您能否提出同樣的論點,即現在是將拉丁美洲或其他地區貨幣化的有趣時機?

  • Part two of that would be is now the right time to think about this given the situation with VIL? Or should we wait until that situation maybe resolve itself and then we think about an equity sale?

    考慮到 VIL 的情況,第二部分是現在考慮這個問題的合適時機嗎?還是我們應該等到這種情況可能自行解決,然後再考慮出售股權?

  • And then, Rod, if I could. So you went out of your way to mention that the financing impact on the AFFO -- attributable AFFO per share calculation is going to be about 8% for the year. Absent that and absent the provisions for VIL, we might be seeing an underlying 8% to 9% AFFO growth per share. Is that our takeaway for how we think about 2024, that obviously, other things aside and the fundamentals across the world that our starting point for thinking about 2024 is an 8% to 9% AFFO growth business.

    然後,Rod,如果可以的話。所以你不厭其煩地提到融資對 AFFO 的影響——每股 AFFO 計算的應佔 AFFO 今年將達到 8% 左右。如果沒有這一點並且沒有 VIL 的規定,我們可能會看到 AFFO 每股潛在增長 8% 至 9%。這是我們對 2024 年的思考方式的收穫嗎?顯然,拋開其他事情和世界各地的基本面,我們思考 2024 年的起點是 AFFO 業務增長 8% 至 9%。

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • Okay. Dave, you got a bunch of stuff packed in there. Let me start to -- no. Relative to the M&A in India, there's not a direct connect between the 2. They are somewhat mutually exclusive types of decisions. And it really becomes, again, part of a broader portfolio kind of conversation relative to what we think may make sense for the portfolio in terms of driving further value over time.

    好的。戴夫,你那裡裝了一堆東西。讓我開始——不。相對於印度的併購,兩者之間沒有直接聯繫。它們在某種程度上是相互排斥的決策類型。它真的再次成為更廣泛的投資組合對話的一部分,相對於我們認為在隨著時間的推移推動進一步價值方面對投資組合可能有意義的內容。

  • India is really just kind of an opportunistic at this point in time. And really, it's -- we're in kind of the exploration mode at this point. A number of things going on there. And to the extent that there is, again, a value creation opportunity for us, we can continue to enjoy the growth of the market and utilize that capital in other parts of the world, including using it to further delever, perhaps more -- even more quickly than we would have otherwise thought is not a bad thing.

    在這個時候,印度真的只是一種機會主義。實際上,我們目前處於某種探索模式。那裡發生了很多事情。就我們再次創造價值的機會而言,我們可以繼續享受市場的增長並在世界其他地區利用這些資本,包括用它來進一步去槓桿化,也許更多 - 甚至比我們想像的更快並不是一件壞事。

  • So there -- I understand the kind of the connection that you're drawing there, but I'm not really looking them in that way. And I really do believe the paths are separate.

    所以那裡 - 我理解你在那裡畫的那種聯繫,但我並不是真的那樣看他們。我真的相信路徑是分開的。

  • Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • David, I'll take the next one here on the AFFO per share growth. So you can see in the chart that we laid out, we have AFFO per share going from $9.76 to really down to $9.60 on an attributable basis. As we mentioned, the financing costs, you can see on the chart there, the $315 million represents about $0.68 of that or about an 8% headwind.

    大衛,我將在下一個關於 AFFO 每股增長的問題上發言。所以你可以在我們列出的圖表中看到,我們的 AFFO 每股收益從 9.76 美元實際下降到 9.60 美元。正如我們提到的,融資成本,你可以在圖表上看到,3.15 億美元約佔其中的 0.68 美元或約 8% 的逆風。

  • The $405 million is what's coming from our regional businesses, including our corporate cost centers. And that $405 million represents about a 9% growth. So that's kind of a core growth rate that we're generating from our operating.

    4.05 億美元來自我們的區域業務,包括我們的企業成本中心。而這 4.05 億美元代表了大約 9% 的增長。所以這是我們從運營中產生的核心增長率。

  • And the FX headwind is about 1%. And then VIL represents about 2% headwind. And when you put it all together, you get to a negative 2% growth. But to the extent that the financing impacts here really are onetime, which we expect, we expect interest to kind of peak this year and then -- in the middle of this year and maybe trend down towards next year, assuming they stay flat or even decline and become a tailwind next year. That certainly would be a good fact.

    外匯逆風約為 1%。然後 VIL 代表大約 2% 的逆風。當你把它們放在一起時,你會得到 2% 的負增長。但就這裡的融資影響確實是一次性的而言,我們預計利率將在今年達到頂峰,然後 - 在今年年中,並可能在明年趨於下降,假設它們保持平穩甚至下降並成為明年的順風。這當然是一個好事實。

  • But that could remove that 8% headwind on us. FX and the VIL situation in India, both are somewhat unpredictable. But if you put those aside, we feel really good about our global operating business in that upper single-digit growth rate in this environment.

    但這可以消除我們身上的 8% 逆風。外彙和印度的 VIL 情況都有些難以預測。但如果你把這些放在一邊,我們對我們在這種環境下的高個位數增長率的全球運營業務感到非常滿意。

  • And of course, with these uncertainties around FX and maybe recessions in the U.S. and other places, we'll watch and see how that unfolds. But absent the volatility in India, absent the FX and the financing headwinds, we feel very good about an upper single-digit sort of a growth rate from our operating units. And that's all driven and underpinned by growth in mobile data consumption around the globe and the need for tower space. And our portfolio is just really well positioned to benefit from that.

    當然,由於圍繞外彙的這些不確定性以及美國和其他地方可能出現的衰退,我們將拭目以待這將如何展開。但是,如果沒有印度的動盪,沒有外彙和融資逆風,我們對我們運營部門的高個位數增長率感到非常滿意。而這一切都受到全球移動數據消費增長和塔空間需求的推動和支撐。我們的投資組合非常適合從中受益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Phil Cusick from JPMorgan.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Phil Cusick。

  • Yong Choe - VP in Equity Research

    Yong Choe - VP in Equity Research

  • This is Richard for Phil. Just wanted to follow-up on the builds. So what do you see as the most attractive markets right now internationally?

    這是菲爾的理查德。只是想跟進構建。那麼,您認為目前國際上最具吸引力的市場是什麼?

  • Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • When it comes to our build program, Richard, I mean, we're going to build about 4,000 sites this year. That's the expectation. The biggest chunks here really come from Africa and India in the range of 1,600, 1,700 sites each in those areas. In Europe, we're going to drive just over 400. In Latin America, maybe just under 300 sites. So there's an opportunity to build in all of these markets. And we get really good NOI yields in these markets kind of across the board. So it's not just about the volume of sites. Certainly, we like the idea of increasing our footprint Europe, in particular, driving more builds there with very highly credit quality customers in really attractive economies.

    關於我們的建設計劃,理查德,我的意思是,我們今年將建設大約 4,000 個站點。這就是期望。這裡最大的塊實際上來自非洲和印度,在這些地區各有 1,600 個和 1,700 個站點。在歐洲,我們將推動 400 多個站點。在拉丁美洲,可能只有不到 300 個站點。因此,有機會在所有這些市場中建立。我們在這些市場上獲得了非常好的 NOI 收益率。所以這不僅僅是關於站點的數量。當然,我們喜歡增加我們在歐洲的足蹟的想法,特別是在真正有吸引力的經濟體中以非常高信用質量的客戶推動更多建設。

  • So the 400 plus, 400 to 500 sites we'll build there are very attractive to us. But as Tom talked about with scaling the core, anywhere where we have management teams and assets and customers, to the extent we can add assets through an internal CapEx program with high NOI yields, it creates a lot of value for our shareholders' long term. It's good for our customers as well. So we think all of these markets are attractive in terms of our ability to build new assets.

    因此,我們將在那裡建立的 400 多個、400 到 500 個站點對我們非常有吸引力。但正如 Tom 所說,在我們擁有管理團隊、資產和客戶的任何地方擴展核心,只要我們可以通過具有高 NOI 收益率的內部資本支出計劃增加資產,它就會為我們股東的長期利益創造很多價值.這對我們的客戶也有好處。因此,我們認為所有這些市場在我們建立新資產的能力方面都具有吸引力。

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • Just adding on to that, one of the really interesting, I think, parts of the build is what we're doing in Africa, because we're really focused on building green sites in Africa with Airtel and really leveraging a lot of the power and fuel competencies that we've created in that market. We brought in solar to over 15,000 sites. We brought over lithium-ion in over 19,000 sites. We've reduced 5 million liters of diesel over the last several years.

    除此之外,我認為真正有趣的部分之一是我們在非洲所做的建設,因為我們真正專注於與 Airtel 在非洲建設綠色站點,並真正利用了很多力量以及我們在該市場創造的燃料能力。我們為 15,000 多個站點引入了太陽能。我們在 19,000 多個站點引入了鋰離子電池。在過去幾年裡,我們減少了 500 萬升柴油。

  • And so there is an incredible competency that we're building with regards to Power as a Service in that marketplace. And we're able to bring that then on to those green sites that we're building in conjunction with our -- with the agreement with Airtel. So that's a particular interest that we're really excited about over the next couple of years.

    因此,在該市場中,我們正在建立關於電力即服務的令人難以置信的能力。然後,我們能夠將其帶到我們正在與我們一起建設的那些綠色網站上 - 與 Airtel 達成協議。因此,在接下來的幾年裡,我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • Yong Choe - VP in Equity Research

    Yong Choe - VP in Equity Research

  • And coming back to the U.S., you said about the carriers are about 50% of your sites are 5G. When can we see, I guess, more densification activity? Do you think that's coming at the end of this year or into next year?

    回到美國,你說運營商大約有 50% 的站點是 5G。我猜我們什麼時候可以看到更多的緻密化活動?你認為這會在今年年底或明年到來嗎?

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • I'm certain that there are certain pockets of the United States where we're already seeing some densification going on in the marketplace. And so I would expect that to continue as penetration continues with 5G sets. Keep in mind, it's in the carrier's best interest to deploy out 5G because it's going to lower their overall cost of providing service. And so as activity continues to drive and as applications continue to develop and get deployed, you'll start to see that densification.

    我敢肯定,在美國的某些地區,我們已經看到市場上出現了一些緻密化。因此,我預計隨著 5G 設備的普及,這種情況會繼續下去。請記住,部署 5G 符合運營商的最大利益,因為這將降低他們提供服務的總體成本。因此,隨著活動的繼續推動以及應用程序的繼續開發和部署,您將開始看到這種緻密化。

  • But so as I said, I think it is already going on. And I would expect that over the next 2 to 3 years, we'll see an increase even in the densification within the market. Also keep in mind that carriers are using slightly higher spectrum bands. And so given the propagation characteristics, they're going to be requiring higher levels of densification as a result of that as well.

    但正如我所說,我認為它已經在進行了。我預計在未來 2 到 3 年內,我們甚至會看到市場內的緻密化有所增加。另請記住,運營商使用的頻段略高。因此,鑑於傳播特性,它們也將因此需要更高水平的緻密化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Eric Luebchow from Wells Fargo.

    你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Eric Luebchow。

  • Eric Thomas Luebchow - Associate Analyst

    Eric Thomas Luebchow - Associate Analyst

  • I just wanted to check in on the Lat Am business. Obviously, as you mentioned, some churn impacts this year. Maybe you could kind of break out the impact from Telefónica and Oi in your guide? And what type of visibility you have on churn beyond 2023 when some of these events may resolve and we could see organic growth go back to kind of historical upper single-digit ranges?

    我只是想檢查 Lat Am 業務。顯然,正如您所提到的,今年有一些客戶流失的影響。也許您可以在您的指南中詳細說明 Telefónica 和 Oi 的影響?當其中一些事件可能會解決並且我們可以看到有機增長回到歷史上的個位數範圍內時,您對 2023 年以後的客戶流失有什麼樣的可見性?

  • And then secondly, just a balance sheet question for Rod. Obviously, a big increase in interest expense. Maybe you can talk about how you're thinking about managing the balance sheet this year in terms of fixed floating mix, whether there's the possibility of terming out some additional floating rate debt given the inverted yield curve or accessing the secured market or anything else you're looking at to help drive that down?

    其次,只是 Rod 的資產負債表問題。顯然,利息支出大幅增加。也許你可以談談你是如何考慮今年在固定浮動組合方面管理資產負債表的,是否有可能在收益率曲線倒掛的情況下終止一些額外的浮動利率債務或進入有擔保市場或任何其他你正在尋找幫助降低它?

  • Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. Sounds good, Eric. So when it comes to Latin America, I guess what I would point to is our guide on organic tenant billings growth is a little bit higher than 2%. That comes in a few pieces. The gross new business is going to be in the mid-single digits, let's call it, around 3% or so. We're also seeing higher escalators at around 8%. And we do have a headwind of churn of about 8% as well. That's the bits and pieces in terms of getting into that growth rate. So you can see the churn number is fairly high. We do think it's temporary, and we do think it will work through it over the next couple of years and get back to a more compelling overall growth in the market.

    是的。聽起來不錯,埃里克。所以說到拉丁美洲,我想我要指出的是我們的有機租戶賬單增長指南略高於 2%。這有幾部分。新業務總額將保持在中等個位數,我們稱其為 3% 左右。我們還看到更高的自動扶梯在 8% 左右。我們確實也有大約 8% 的客戶流失率。這就是進入該增長率的點點滴滴。所以你可以看到流失率相當高。我們確實認為這是暫時的,我們確實認為它會在未來幾年內發揮作用,並恢復到更具吸引力的市場整體增長。

  • And when it comes to the churn pieces in our guide specifically, when you look out here in 2023, Telefónica is really the biggest piece. And I don't want to get too detailed in terms of customers. But I think everyone knows what's happening in Mexico with Telefónica and then joining AT&T as an MVNO there. So that's driving a fair amount of the churn. We're also seeing some churn remaining from American Movil really through the Nextel assets that were purchased down in Brazil. Those are the 2 things other than smaller churn, smaller customers kind of throughout the region. But it's really the Nextel and the Telefónica in the bigger piece.

    當具體談到我們指南中的流失部分時,當你在 2023 年看這裡時,Telefónica 確實是最大的一塊。而且我不想在客戶方面過於詳細。但我想每個人都知道 Telefónica 在墨西哥發生了什麼,然後加入 AT&T 成為那裡的 MVNO。所以這導致了相當大的流失。通過在巴西購買的 Nextel 資產,我們還看到 American Movil 仍然存在一些流失。這些是除了較小的客戶流失之外的兩件事,整個地區的客戶較少。但它實際上是 Nextel 和 Telefónica 在更大的一塊。

  • And then the Oi piece really is going to be out over time. So there's a couple of things that I would say about Oi. Oi in total is about $100 million of revenue for us. It represents about 1% of our overall business. About 1/3 of that is tied in with their landline business, which we fully expect that the landline business of Oi will keep those sites over time. The other 2/3, we have on average, 5 to 6 years remaining on the length there. So that will be -- kind of over time, we'll see Oi is not a significant impact today that we're seeing, but that may start unfolding this year and into next as we negotiate with the 3 players who kind of carved up the Oi. But it will probably extend into a multiyear period in terms of getting through Oi. So that's kind of what's happening in Latin America relative to the churn issues.

    然後 Oi 的作品真的會隨著時間的推移而消失。所以關於 Oi,我有幾件事要說。 Oi 總共為我們帶來了大約 1 億美元的收入。它約占我們整體業務的 1%。其中大約 1/3 與他們的固定電話業務有關,我們完全預計 Oi 的固定電話業務將隨著時間的推移保留這些站點。另外 2/3,我們平均還有 5 到 6 年的剩餘時間。所以這將是——隨著時間的推移,我們會看到 Oi 並沒有像我們所看到的那樣產生重大影響,但隨著我們與 3 名分道揚鑣的球員談判,這可能會在今年和明年開始展開愛。但就通過 Oi 而言,它可能會延長到多年的時間。這就是拉丁美洲正在發生的與流失問題相關的事情。

  • Eric Thomas Luebchow - Associate Analyst

    Eric Thomas Luebchow - Associate Analyst

  • (inaudible) Yes, sorry.

    (聽不清)是的,對不起。

  • Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes. On the balance sheet, a couple of things that I would say. I mean, we have long-standing percentage policies when it comes to fixed and floating. We run 80-20. We're pretty much there at the end of 2022. We expect to stay in and around that range. I mean, we can be opportunistic. I think you saw it at the very end of 2021 just before interest rates began to rise. We were fairly aggressive in terms of terming out floating rate balances. We got our floating rate percentage down to closer to 10%. With move -- about 90% or just over 90% on fixed, we did that very purposefully to take advantage of the low rates, both in the U.S. bond market and the euro market. And that was just ahead of purchasing the data center business on December 28, 2021. So we can be flexible there.

    是的。在資產負債表上,我想說幾件事。我的意思是,在固定和浮動方面,我們有長期的百分比政策。我們跑 80-20。到 2022 年底,我們就差不多到了。我們希望保持在這個範圍內或附近。我的意思是,我們可以投機取巧。我想你在 2021 年底利率開始上升之前就看到了。我們在終止浮動利率餘額方面相當激進。我們將浮動利率百分比降至接近 10%。通過移動——大約 90% 或略高於 90% 的固定利率,我們非常有目的地這樣做,以利用美國債券市場和歐元市場的低利率。那是在 2021 年 12 月 28 日購買數據中心業務之前。所以我們可以在那裡保持靈活性。

  • In terms of managing the balance sheet going forward, we have about $3 billion in bonds that we'll refinance this year. We'll look at a variety of opportunities to do that. That could come in the form of getting into the U.S. capital markets that we can do that or parts of that in the European markets. And of course, we'll be balancing short-term and long-term rates. We could stay on the shorter end of the curve and with the expectation that rates may come down in the next couple of years, and then we go out longer when the rates are more attractive. We can also secure some of the debt that's on the balance sheet to the extent we refinance it and maybe carve off some savings from that perspective as well. So there are a lot of opportunities in terms of looking at the market. There's a lot to consider in terms of where we expect rates to head.

    在管理未來的資產負債表方面,我們有大約 30 億美元的債券將在今年進行再融資。我們將尋找各種機會來做到這一點。這可能以進入美國資本市場的形式出現,我們可以在歐洲市場做到這一點或部分進入。當然,我們會平衡短期和長期利率。我們可以留在曲線的較短端,並期望利率在未來幾年內可能會下降,然後當利率更具吸引力時我們會延長期限。我們還可以在我們為其再融資的範圍內確保資產負債表上的一些債務,並可能從這個角度削減一些儲蓄。所以從市場的角度來看,有很多機會。就我們預期利率走向而言,有很多因素需要考慮。

  • But as I said earlier in one of my last comments, we do expect that rates will probably peak here in the U.S. this year, maybe even drift down later in the year. And we'll continue to watch the markets and interest rates and economy to see what we expect to be happening next year. But we'll be looking at the full curve and all the different capital opportunities that we have in front of us to make the very best decisions going forward.

    但正如我之前在最後一篇評論中所說,我們確實預計今年美國的利率可能會達到頂峰,甚至可能在今年晚些時候下降。我們將繼續關注市場、利率和經濟,以了解我們預計明年會發生什麼。但我們正在研究我們面前的完整曲線和所有不同的資本機會,以便做出最好的決定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Batya Levi from UBS.

    你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Batya Levi。

  • Batya Levi - Executive Director and Research Analyst

    Batya Levi - Executive Director and Research Analyst

  • Just following up on India and specifically for Vodafone. Can you size the partial payments that they're making right now, if there's been a change in the pacing? And if there are any adjustments to the pricing of their contract with you? And just going back to evaluating strategic options for India. It's been a challenging market, but potentially there is some improvement. How do you sort of underwrite what valuation you would take versus the -- your long-term growth assumptions in that region?

    只是跟進印度,特別是沃達丰。如果節奏發生變化,您能否調整他們現在進行的部分付款?如果他們與您簽訂的合同的定價有任何調整?回到評估印度的戰略選擇。這是一個充滿挑戰的市場,但可能會有一些改進。您如何對您將採取的估值與您在該地區的長期增長假設進行比較?

  • Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Batya, I'll take the India reserve question. So you can see in our outlook for 2023, we are calling out a specific reserve for VIL of about $75 million. That's up against on a revenue reserve basis from 2022, we reserved close to $100 million to -- for really the last 2 quarters in 2022. What I can tell you is the percentage -- I don't want to get into percentages of revenue that they're paying and those sorts of things. What I will highlight in January, they're paying us a little bit more than they were paying us in the end of 2022.

    Batya,我來回答印度儲備問題。因此,您可以在我們對 2023 年的展望中看到,我們正在為 VIL 撥出約 7500 萬美元的特定儲備金。這與從 2022 年開始的收入儲備相比,我們為 2022 年的最後兩個季度儲備了近 1 億美元。我可以告訴你的是百分比——我不想談及收入的百分比他們付錢和諸如此類的事情。我將在一月份強調的是,他們付給我們的錢比他們在 2022 年底付給我們的多一點。

  • So we are seeing some improvement in terms of the collections through VIL. And we do expect that, that improvement will kind of continue, and we'll collect even a little bit more from a variety of their commitments to us as we look out over the balance of 2023. We do expect them to be getting back closer to and increasing their payments to us towards the end of the year. So we do expect to see some improvements going in that direction. That's kind of what I would say.

    因此,我們看到通過 VIL 在收藏方面有所改善。我們確實希望,這種改進會繼續下去,並且在我們展望 2023 年的平衡時,我們會從他們對我們的各種承諾中收集到更多一點。我們確實希望他們會越來越近並在年底前增加對我們的付款。因此,我們確實希望看到朝這個方向發展的一些改進。這就是我要說的。

  • In terms of the contracts, we haven't really written any MLAs or leasing contracts with them. We have entered into the $200 million convertible debenture, which also have some terms and conditions embedded in it that call out specific time periods in terms of when payments are due. It also has some additional terms and conditions around staying current with leasing fees within the MLAs and those sorts of things. So there's that additional agreement, which gives us a few additional kind of safety nets or safety belts here.

    在合同方面,我們還沒有真正與他們簽訂任何 MLA 或租賃合同。我們已經購買了 2 億美元的可轉換債券,其中還包含一些條款和條件,規定了付款到期的具體時間段。它還有一些額外的條款和條件,圍繞在 MLA 和類似的事情中保持最新的租賃費用。所以有額外的協議,它為我們提供了一些額外的安全網或安全帶。

  • But the situation there is volatile. We're focused on trying to support VIL through this period. We were very encouraged by the government conversion. We think that could be the beginning of better things for VIL in terms of raising additional capital going forward. And we're focused on long-term value creation and having VIL as a partner in India over the long term. And maybe on your second question, can you remind me what it was?

    但那裡的局勢動盪不安。在此期間,我們專注於努力支持 VIL。我們對政府的轉變感到非常鼓舞。我們認為,就未來籌集額外資金而言,這可能是 VIL 更好的開始。我們專注於長期價值創造,並讓 VIL 成為印度的長期合作夥伴。也許關於你的第二個問題,你能提醒我那是什麼嗎?

  • Batya Levi - Executive Director and Research Analyst

    Batya Levi - Executive Director and Research Analyst

  • Yes. With improvement in India, why is this the right time to look for strategic options in the region?

    是的。隨著印度的進步,為什麼現在是在該地區尋找戰略選擇的合適時機?

  • Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • Yes, I would say it's really just being opportunistic kind of looking at the market. Certainly, India has been volatile over the last few years and maybe even a little bit longer than that. But as we said in the prepared remarks, we look at all of our portfolio assets around the globe kind of on a constant basis and evaluate growth opportunities, valuations and other things. So we are in the process of looking at strategic options in India.

    是的,我會說這真的只是一種看市場的機會主義。當然,印度在過去幾年一直動盪不定,甚至可能比這更長一點。但正如我們在準備好的評論中所說,我們會持續關注我們在全球的所有投資組合資產,並評估增長機會、估值和其他因素。因此,我們正在研究印度的戰略選擇。

  • We haven't made any decisions at this point, but we are kind of going through a process in evaluating things. And it's really around being opportunistic. We do believe that the Indian market is an interesting market and does hold some upside, but there's also a fair amount of volatility that we have experienced. So we'll be looking at a number of things. And when and if we conclude and make any decisions, we'll certainly let everybody know.

    目前我們還沒有做出任何決定,但我們正在經歷一個評估過程。這真的是圍繞著機會主義。我們確實相信印度市場是一個有趣的市場並且確實有一些上行空間,但我們也經歷過相當大的波動。所以我們會研究很多事情。何時以及如果我們得出結論並做出任何決定,我們肯定會讓每個人都知道。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Nick Del Deo from SVB MoffettNathanson.

    您的下一個問題來自 SVB MoffettNathanson 的 Nick Del Deo。

  • Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

    Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

  • First, just a follow-up on the India question. Tom, you've emphasized how important new site builds are to your growth outlook and the returns you get with them. Obviously, there's a step down in your build plan in '23 versus '22, and it looks like the driver is primarily India. So I guess, does that explicitly tie into your view that India is more volatile, potentially less appealing market than you once believed? Or is something else driving that downshift?

    首先,只是關於印度問題的後續行動。湯姆,您已經強調了新網站建設對您的增長前景和您從中獲得的回報的重要性。顯然,與 22 年相比,23 年你們的建設計劃有所下降,看起來驅動力主要來自印度。所以我想,這是否明確地與您認為印度比您曾經認為的更不穩定、可能更沒有吸引力的市場的觀點有關?還是其他因素導致了這種降檔?

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • No, it's really not. And as a matter of fact, if you saw the numbers coming in from the field in terms of what they expected to build, it's significantly higher, candidly. And what I -- what we do is we [bracket] that back and look at the opportunity and look at where we can drive the most value there.

    不,真的不是。事實上,如果你看到來自該領域的數字與他們期望建造的東西相比,坦率地說,它要高得多。而我 - 我們所做的是我們 [bracket] 回頭看看機會,看看我們可以在那裡創造最大價值的地方。

  • So there's nothing going on there with regards to the pullback on site. By the way, we will see different levels of site build in each one of the countries, just like we see different levels of colos, amendments depending upon what densification looks like and what the carriers are looking like. But now I wouldn't read in anything in terms of the pullback in on India of new builds for 2023.

    因此,關於現場撤回,那裡沒有任何進展。順便說一句,我們將在每個國家/地區看到不同級別的站點構建,就像我們看到不同級別的託管服務一樣,根據緻密化的情況和運營商的情況進行修改。但現在我不會讀到任何關於印度 2023 年新建築的回調。

  • Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

    Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe turning to CoreSite since you've had it for a little more than a year. It seems like things are going consistent with your underwriting, maybe even a bit better. I guess bigger picture, any key learnings you'd highlight now that you've had a chance to have deep discussions with CoreSite's customers and your tower customers about the vision for how you could integrate those assets or have them work together? And I guess, more generally, any adaptations or refinements to your plan versus a year ago that you'd want to highlight?

    好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後可能轉向 CoreSite,因為您已經使用它一年多了。事情似乎與您的承保情況一致,甚至可能更好一些。我想更大的圖景,您現在有機會與 CoreSite 的客戶和您的塔式客戶就如何整合這些資產或讓它們一起工作的願景進行深入討論,您會強調任何重要的學習嗎?而且我想,更一般地說,與一年前相比,你的計劃有什麼你想強調的調整或改進嗎?

  • Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas A. Bartlett - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. No, nothing specific. I mean, I -- we have a fair amount of history in the kind of in that particular part of the infrastructure business. We knew what the model was that CoreSite was delivering on with their customers and how significant interconnection was in terms of driving value for their customers as well as for the cloud and service operators. And that demand continues. And it's a significant barrier to entry for others to be able to compete against them. I'm continually incredibly impressed with the team and how they think about returns and how they think about the relationships with the customers. So -- but that wasn't surprise because I thought that candidly through the whole entire due diligence process. So I knew the quality of the group. We did enjoy significant growth in 2022, which I think just goes to the strength of the team and strength of the value proposition that they're offering their customers.

    是的。不,沒有什麼特別的。我的意思是,我 - 我們在基礎設施業務的特定部分擁有相當多的歷史。我們知道 CoreSite 為他們的客戶提供的模型是什麼,以及互連在為他們的客戶以及雲和服務運營商推動價值方面的重要性。而且這種需求還在繼續。這是其他人能夠與他們競爭的重要進入障礙。我一直對團隊以及他們如何看待回報以及他們如何看待與客戶的關係印象深刻。所以 - 但這並不奇怪,因為我在整個盡職調查過程中坦率地認為。所以我知道這個團隊的素質。我們在 2022 年確實取得了顯著增長,我認為這只是增強了團隊的力量以及他們為客戶提供的價值主張的力量。

  • And we believe that '23 is going to be another strong year. We still have, as you would expect, a significant amount of energy around what the edge will ultimately look like. We have created an advisory board. We have a lab set up. We have plans to start to look at building out some of that capacity. We've identified about 1,000 sites within the United States that can handle up to over a meg of capacity. And through the relationships that we've been able to develop really through CoreSite with the cloud, we remain really optimistic about what that opportunity is going to look like and how we're going to be able to drive incremental business to our tower site, which is in and of itself has a strong competitive barrier given the ownership that we have of the land and of the site.

    我們相信 23 年將是又一個強勁的一年。正如您所預料的那樣,我們仍然對邊緣的最終外觀充滿熱情。我們創建了一個諮詢委員會。我們建立了一個實驗室。我們計劃開始著眼於構建其中的一些能力。我們已經在美國確定了大約 1,000 個可以處理超過 1 兆容量的站點。通過我們已經能夠真正通過 CoreSite 與雲開發的關係,我們對這個機會將會是什麼樣子以及我們將如何能夠推動增量業務到我們的塔站點仍然非常樂觀,鑑於我們擁有土地和場地的所有權,這本身就具有強大的競爭壁壘。

  • And so we're very excited about it. There's nothing in our guide relative to performance coming from that activity. And as we've said, it's going to be a multiyear rollout. But we think that as a result of the CoreSite assets as well as our tower assets, we're really uniquely positioned to be a meaningful part of the puzzle as the edge continues to develop. So as I said, I think we would just continue to underscore what we originally had thought, and we're continually working very methodically in terms of trying to become that linchpin for rolling out that kind of capability.

    所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我們的指南中沒有與該活動的表現相關的內容。正如我們所說,這將是一個多年的推出。但我們認為,由於 CoreSite 資產以及我們的塔式資產,隨著邊緣技術的不斷發展,我們確實處於獨特的位置,可以成為難題中有意義的一部分。所以正如我所說,我認為我們會繼續強調我們最初的想法,並且我們一直在非常有條理地工作,試圖成為推出這種能力的關鍵。

  • Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

    Rodney M. Smith - Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer

  • And Nick, maybe I'll just add -- complement on to what Tom said here. As we wait for the edge or work for the edge to develop, the CoreSite business is performing exceptionally well and right in line with our expectations. You heard us talk earlier about the record new business that we achieved in 2022. We see strong demand from enterprise customers on those core data center assets that we have around the country. A few of the key metrics here. We are seeing escalations right around 3% on our rental space, which is right in our target range. We see cash mark-to-market adjustments for '23 go up beyond where they were in 2022. So they've gone from about 2% up to maybe 3% to 3.5%. So that's certainly a good factor.

    尼克,也許我會補充 - 補充湯姆在這裡所說的話。當我們等待邊緣或為邊緣發展而努力時,CoreSite 業務表現異常出色,符合我們的預期。你之前聽到我們談到了我們在 2022 年實現的創紀錄的新業務。我們看到企業客戶對我們在全國擁有的核心數據中心資產的強烈需求。這裡有一些關鍵指標。我們看到我們的租賃空間增加了 3% 左右,這正好在我們的目標範圍內。我們看到 23 年的現金按市值調整超過了 2022 年的水平。因此他們已經從大約 2% 上升到 3% 到 3.5%。所以這當然是一個好因素。

  • Churn continues to be in and around 6.5%, which is on the low end of our range. Interconnection growth we expect in 2023 to be in the 6% to 8% range, kind of right in line with where we would expect it to be. And our development CapEx is coming in at around $360 million for 2023. And much of that is to replace capacity that we sold in 2022 through those record new business numbers that we will be deploying in '23 and '24. Replacing that capacity is really where the CapEx is being deployed. So we're seeing very good results and really demand from that CoreSite business, again, as we look to work to develop the edge.

    流失率繼續保持在 6.5% 左右,處於我們範圍的低端。我們預計 2023 年的互連增長將在 6% 到 8% 的範圍內,與我們的預期相符。到 2023 年,我們的開發資本支出約為 3.6 億美元。其中大部分是通過我們將在 23 年和 24 年部署的創紀錄的新業務數量來取代我們在 2022 年銷售的產能。替換該容量實際上是部署資本支出的地方。因此,我們再次看到 CoreSite 業務的非常好的結果和真正的需求,因為我們希望努力開發優勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that's all the time we have for questions today. I would now like to turn the conference back to your speakers for any closing remarks.

    這就是我們今天所有的提問時間。我現在想把會議轉回給您的發言者,聽取任何閉幕詞。

  • Adam Smith - SVP of IR

    Adam Smith - SVP of IR

  • I appreciate everybody joining the call. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to myself or the Investor Relations team. Thanks, everyone.

    感謝大家加入電話會議。如果您有任何疑問,請隨時與我本人或投資者關係團隊聯繫。感謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

    女士們,先生們,今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。