Amyris Inc (AMRS) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Amyris Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results Conference Call. This call is being webcast live on the Events page of the Investors section of the Amyris website at amyris.com. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. You may listen to a webcast replay of this call by going to the Investors section of Amyris' website.

歡迎參加 Amyris 2021年第三季度財務業績電話會議。此電話會議正在 Amyris 網站 amyris.com 的投資者部分的活動頁面上進行網絡直播。提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。您可以訪問 Amyris 網站的“投資者”部分收聽此次電話會議的網絡廣播重播。

I would now like to turn the call over to Hermanus Kieftenbeld, Chief Financial Officer of Amyris. Please go ahead.

我現在想把電話轉給 Amyris 的首席財務官 Hermanus Kieftenbeld。請繼續。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. With me are John Melo, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Eduardo Alvarez, Chief Operating Officer. John will provide a business update, and Eduardo will share operational performance highlights, and I will finally review our final results for -- our financial results for the quarter. Please note that on this call, you will hear discussions of non-GAAP financial measures, including, but not limited to, underlying sales revenue, gross margin, cash operating expense and adjusted EBITDA.

大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。和我一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 John Melo；首席運營官愛德華多·阿爾瓦雷斯 (Eduardo Alvarez)。John 將提供業務更新，Eduardo 將分享運營績效亮點，最後我將回顧我們的最終結果——我們本季度的財務業績。請注意，在本次電話會議上，您將聽到有關非 GAAP 財務指標的討論，包括但不限於基礎銷售收入、毛利率、現金運營費用和調整後的 EBITDA。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are contained in the financial summary section slides of the accompanying presentation or the press release distributed today, which is available on our website. The current report on Form 8-K furnished with respect to our press release is also available on our website as well as on the SEC's website.

這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務措施的調節包含在隨附演示文稿或今天發布的新聞稿的財務摘要部分幻燈片中，可在我們的網站上獲取。與我們的新聞稿相關的當前 8-K 表格報告也可以在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上找到。

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about future events and circumstances, including Amyris' outlook for 2021 and beyond, Amyris' goals and strategic priorities, anticipated transactions and other future milestones as well as market opportunities and growth prospects. These statements are based on management's current expectations, and actual results and future events may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties, including those detailed from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our 10-K for full-year 2020.

在此次電話會議中，我們將對未來事件和情況做出前瞻性陳述，包括 Amyris 對 2021 年及以後的展望、Amyris 的目標和戰略重點、預期交易和其他未來里程碑以及市場機會和增長前景。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，實際結果和未來事件可能因風險和不確定性而存在重大差異，包括我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳述的那些，包括我們全年的 10-K 2020.

Amyris disclaims any obligation to update the information contained in these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Before we begin today, I'd like to note that included in our webcast is a slide presentation we will refer to. The slides will also be posted on the Investor Relations section of Amyris' website following the call.

Amyris 不承擔任何更新這些前瞻性陳述中包含的信息的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。在我們今天開始之前，我想指出我們的網絡廣播中包含我們將參考的幻燈片演示。這些幻燈片也將在電話會議後發佈在 Amyris 網站的投資者關係部分。

I'll now turn the call over to John. John?

我現在將電話轉給約翰。約翰？

Thanks, Han, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I'll cover our third quarter business performance and update on our strategy and the near-term outlook including our initial 2022 outlook.

謝謝，韓，大家下午好。今天，我將介紹我們第三季度的業務表現並更新我們的戰略和近期展望，包括我們最初的 2022 年展望。

Slide 4. With the third quarter, we delivered another quarter of very strong strategic execution amid challenging and very frustrating global supply chain conditions. These supply chain issues are impacting near-term performance. And as a result, our revenue in the third quarter was below our expectation. Shipping delays, along with major manufacturing disruptions in China, are global in nature and persisting into the fourth quarter. However, we believe that these are short-term in nature and have no impact on our long-term growth targets and the increasing consumer demand for high-quality, sustainable products. I will speak to these issues in more detail shortly.

幻燈片 4。在第三季度，我們在充滿挑戰和令人沮喪的全球供應鏈條件下又交付了一個非常強大的戰略執行力。這些供應鏈問題正在影響近期業績。因此，我們第三季度的收入低於我們的預期。運輸延誤以及中國的主要製造中斷具有全球性，並持續到第四季度。然而，我們認為這些都是短期的，不會對我們的長期增長目標和消費者對高質量、可持續產品日益增長的需求產生影響。稍後我將更詳細地討論這些問題。

In the third quarter, we once again realized record underlying revenue and record consumer revenue growth, demonstrating continued year-over-year and sequential growth. Our third quarter underlying revenue was up 40% versus the third quarter of 2020, and consumer revenue was up 89% versus the same quarter last year. Also, our multiyear consumer growth was very strong at 121% cumulative annual growth rate for the 3 quarters year-to-date of 2021 compared to 2018. 2021 will be the first year that our consumer revenue outsizes our ingredients revenue.

在第三季度，我們再次實現了創紀錄的基礎收入和創紀錄的消費者收入增長，展示了持續的同比增長和環比增長。我們第三季度的基礎收入比 2020 年第三季度增長了 40%，消費者收入比去年同期增長了 89%。此外，與 2018 年相比，我們的多年消費者增長非常強勁，2021 年至今的三個季度累計年增長率為 121%。2021 年將是我們的消費者收入超過原料收入的第一年。

We have been deliberate in our choice of clean beauty, personal care, health and wellness markets. These markets are high-growth, high-margin and capital-light. We believe that clean beauty will become the beauty industry, a segment for which we are viewed as leaders and which is growing at double the rate of the traditional personal care market.

我們在選擇清潔美容、個人護理、健康和保健市場時經過深思熟慮。這些市場是高增長、高利潤和輕資本的。我們相信清潔美容將成為美容行業，我們被視為領導者的細分市場，其增長速度是傳統個人護理市場的兩倍。

Turning to Slide 5 now. Our Consumer business continued to grow sharply during the quarter with very strong execution of the launch of our new brands. The response to our new brands and customer loyalty to our existing brands during the quarter strengthens our belief and conviction in our longer-term growth targets. We have grown our consumer business by over 8.4x over the last 24 months. This is exceptional growth and the best growth at scale that we are aware of in beauty, demonstrating the power of our strategy, our portfolio and our ability to effectively engage the consumer. The momentum in all of our brands gives us confidence to accelerate investment in our consumer business and continue to develop amazing, clean and sustainable platform molecules that enable us to deliver the best performing consumer products in the categories we participate in.

現在轉到幻燈片 5。我們的消費者業務在本季度繼續大幅增長，新品牌的推出執行力非常強。本季度對我們新品牌的反應和客戶對我們現有品牌的忠誠度加強了我們對長期增長目標的信念和信念。在過去的 24 個月裡，我們的消費者業務增長了 8.4 倍以上。這是我們所知道的美妝行業的非凡增長和最佳規模增長，展示了我們戰略的力量、我們的產品組合以及我們有效吸引消費者的能力。我們所有品牌的發展勢頭讓我們有信心加快對我們消費品業務的投資，並繼續開發令人驚嘆、清潔和可持續的平台分子，使我們能夠提供我們參與的類別中性能最好的消費品。

We launched 4 new consumer brands during the quarter; Rose Inc., JVN Clean Hair, Terasana Clinical, and Olika, further expanding our foothold in clean beauty and personal care end markets. We started late in the quarter with these new brands, and they have less than a full month of sales included in our third quarter results. That said, the new brands have exceeded our initial expectations, and their strong traction has accelerated into the fourth quarter. We expect JVN and Rose Inc., to deliver more than $20 million of revenue in their first 12 months. Additionally, we completed 3 acquisitions, including Olika, Beauty Labs and MG Empower, adding strategic digital online influencer and social selling capabilities as approximately 50% of our consumer revenue is being generated from e-commerce.

我們在本季度推出了 4 個新的消費品牌； Rose Inc.、JVN Clean Hair、Terasana Clinical 和 Olika，進一步擴大了我們在清潔美容和個人護理終端市場的立足點。我們在本季度末開始使用這些新品牌，而它們在我們第三季度業績中的銷售額還不到一個月。也就是說，新品牌超出了我們最初的預期，它們的強勁牽引力已加速進入第四季度。我們預計 JVN 和 Rose Inc. 將在頭 12 個月內實現超過 2000 萬美元的收入。此外，我們完成了 3 項收購，包括 Olika、Beauty Labs 和 MG Empower，增加了戰略性數字在線影響者和社交銷售能力，因為我們大約 50% 的消費者收入來自電子商務。

Our online business is the fastest-growing business in our portfolio, and also our most profitable, with most brands delivering over 80% gross margin for online sales. Rose Inc., clean color cosmetics; JVN clean haircare; and Terasana clean skincare are each formulated with 1 or a combination of our unique sustainable ingredients that we created and manufacture. Each of these brands has a hero ingredient that we invested and produced along with distinctive formulations that are disrupting their respective categories.

我們的在線業務是我們投資組合中增長最快的業務，也是我們最賺錢的業務，大多數品牌的在線銷售毛利率都超過 80%。Rose Inc.，清潔彩妝； JVN 清潔護髮；和 Terasana 清潔護膚品均採用我們創造和製造的一種或多種我們獨特的可持續成分的組合配製而成。這些品牌中的每一個都有我們投資和生產的主要成分，以及顛覆各自類別的獨特配方。

Our products have excellent consumer ratings and industry-leading repeat purchase. This gives us great confidence in the underlying demand to support continuing more than doubling our annual revenue for the next few years. We are delivering the best growth in our sector, and we expect to continue at this pace or better for the next few years. JVN is a great example of our portfolio connection with hemisqualane at the core of its formulation.

我們的產品具有出色的消費者評價和行業領先的重複購買。這使我們對支持未來幾年年收入繼續增加一倍以上的潛在需求充滿信心。我們正在實現我們行業中最好的增長，我們希望在未來幾年繼續以這種速度或更好的速度發展。JVN 是一個很好的例子，說明我們的產品組合以半鯊烷為核心的配方。

With hemisqualane, we invented new chemistry to remove the use of silicones in hair and body care. With this hero ingredient, we are truly revolutionizing hair care, and also making our planet safer and more sustainable for all. This ingredient, along with our exclusive formulations, an incredible brand partner is leading us to much better growth than Olaplex, our key competitor in this category. This is our lab-to-market platform at work. We targeted a major sustainability problem with the widespread use of harmful silicones. We invented new chemistry and are now a leading producer and supplier of the best-performing replacement for dirty silicones.

借助半鯊烷，我們發明了新的化學物質來消除頭髮和身體護理中有機矽的使用。憑藉這種英雄成分，我們真正徹底改變了頭髮護理，也讓我們的星球對所有人來說更安全、更可持續。這種成分，連同我們的獨家配方，一個令人難以置信的品牌合作夥伴正在帶領我們取得比我們在該類別中的主要競爭對手 Olaplex 更好的增長。這是我們工作中的實驗室到市場平台。我們針對廣泛使用有害有機矽的主要可持續性問題。我們發明了新的化學物質，現在是性能最佳的髒有機矽替代品的領先生產商和供應商。

Demand for hemisqualane is growing rapidly, both in relation to the JVN brand and as an ingredient for other brands and formulators. Rose Inc., another brand launched during the quarter is similar to the JVN story in the clean color cosmetics category, delivering comparable revenue to JVN in the third quarter. Biosilica is a key ingredient to this color cosmetic line. We have developed a process to derive Biosilica from the ashes of sugarcane that is used in our industrial applications and are in process of using this as the new default base for color cosmetics in the industry.

無論是與 JVN 品牌相關，還是作為其他品牌和配方設計師的成分，對半鯊烷的需求都在快速增長。本季度推出的另一個品牌 Rose Inc. 與 JVN 在清潔彩妝類別中的故事相似，第三季度的收入與 JVN 相當。生物二氧化矽是該彩妝系列的關鍵成分。我們已經開發出一種從工業應用中使用的甘蔗灰中提取生物二氧化矽的工藝，並且正在將其用作該行業彩妝的新默認基礎。

In addition to reusing residual products, Biosilica enables clean color to perform much better on the skin and last twice as long. The chain doesn't stop there. We then formulate our color products with our squalane. When squalene is incorporated with color cosmetic formulations, the product moisturizes the skin and makes the color feel softer on the skin, not a hard, dry paste, great applications, grounded in sustainability and powered by the performance of synthetic biology. Both Jonathan Van Ness and Rosie Huntington-Whiteley are great partners to help promote the message of clean beauty formulated with high-performing sustainable ingredients created and manufactured by Amyris.

除了重複使用殘留產品外，Biosilica 還能使乾淨的顏色在皮膚上表現得更好，並且持續時間延長一倍。連鎖店不止於此。然後我們用我們的角鯊烷配製我們的顏色產品。當角鯊烯與彩妝配方相結合時，該產品可滋潤皮膚，使皮膚感覺顏色更柔和，而不是堅硬、乾燥的糊狀物，應用廣泛，以可持續性為基礎，並由合成生物學的性能提供動力。Jonathan Van Ness 和 Rosie Huntington-Whiteley 都是很好的合作夥伴，可以幫助宣傳使用 Amyris 創造和製造的高性能可持續成分配製的清潔美容信息。

We are coupling our product leadership with amazing data science tools and digital marketing. We strategically added Beauty Labs and MG Empower to our portfolio in the third quarter. MG Empower is a leader in influencer marketing, which I believe is the future of digital marketing. MG Empower is the key enabler to our fastest-growing sales channel, live selling sessions hosted online by key micro-influencers directly to their followers. This is the equivalent of Home Shopping Network on the Internet with much deeper engagement and much better sales conversion. We believe accessing the right influencer talent and having deep data and learnings with this community is the key to thriving online. Direct-to-consumer is currently about 50% of our consumer revenue and delivering gross margins that are greater than 80% for most of our brands. We believe this revenue mix is sustainable, as we expand our portfolio.

我們正在將我們的產品領先地位與出色的數據科學工具和數字營銷相結合。我們在第三季度戰略性地將 Beauty Labs 和 MG Empower 添加到我們的產品組合中。MG Empower 是影響者營銷的領導者，我相信這是數字營銷的未來。MG Empower 是我們增長最快的銷售渠道的關鍵推動者，由主要的微型影響者直接向他們的追隨者在線舉辦現場銷售會議。這相當於互聯網上的家庭購物網絡，具有更深入的參與和更好的銷售轉化率。我們相信，獲得合適的影響力人才並在這個社區中獲得深入的數據和學習是在線繁榮的關鍵。目前，直接面向消費者的業務約占我們消費者收入的 50%，我們大多數品牌的毛利率都超過 80%。隨著我們擴大投資組合，我們相信這種收入組合是可持續的。

We now go to Slide 6. And let's talk about our challenging operational conditions during the quarter. As a growing global business, we rely on timely marine shipping to meet customer demand. During the quarter, we experienced delays at the Port of Savannah, Georgia related to a cargo that was scheduled to be unloaded in August, which was not unloaded until mid-September, causing a shortage of farnesene, which is critical for producing squalane. Bottlenecks like this negatively impacted our ingredients revenue by approximately $6 million in the third quarter and increased our cost by approximately $3 million to $4 million, negatively impacting our gross margin during the quarter.

我們現在轉到幻燈片 6。讓我們談談本季度我們具有挑戰性的運營條件。作為一家不斷發展的全球企業，我們依靠及時的海運來滿足客戶的需求。在本季度，我們在佐治亞州薩凡納港經歷了與原定於 8 月卸載的貨物有關的延誤，該貨物直到 9 月中旬才卸載，導致法呢烯短缺，這對生產角鯊烷至關重要。像這樣的瓶頸在第三季度對我們的配料收入產生了約 600 萬美元的負面影響，並使我們的成本增加了約 300 萬至 400 萬美元，對我們本季度的毛利率產生了負面影響。

Another major pinch point globally has been accessing materials from China, where critical packaging and other items for our brands are produced. Across the board, our consumer business was impacted by supply chain disruptions related to China, and we estimate a negative impact of between $6 million and $7 million during the quarter to our consumer business. As an example, Pipette, our fast-growing clean baby and mother care brand, experienced out-of-stock conditions in 4 of the top-selling products during critical sales and promotional periods in the third quarter. The shortfall lasted about 7 weeks. We are focused on removing our dependency on global supply chains and taking control of our manufacturing to avoid future surprises. We are very focused on completing construction of our Brazil ingredient plant and completing the build of our consumer products production facility in Reno, Nevada. Eduardo will update you on the progress of these projects in a moment.

全球的另一個主要關鍵點是從中國獲取材料，我們品牌的關鍵包裝和其他物品在中國生產。總體而言，我們的消費者業務受到與中國相關的供應鏈中斷的影響，我們估計本季度對我們消費者業務的負面影響在 600 萬至 700 萬美元之間。例如，我們快速增長的清潔母嬰護理品牌 Pipette 在第三季度的關鍵銷售和促銷期間出現了 4 種最暢銷產品的缺貨情況。缺口持續了大約 7 週。我們專注於消除對全球供應鏈的依賴並控制我們的製造以避免未來出現意外。我們非常專注於完成我們巴西配料廠的建設，並完成我們在內華達州里諾的消費品生產設施的建設。Eduardo 稍後會向您介紹這些項目的進展情況。

Brazil will start production early in 2022, and Reno will be full production in the first half of 2022. These facilities will not only provide us much more resilience on the supply chain, they will also reduce our operating costs significantly and improve our gross margin by about 1,000 basis points.

巴西2022年初投產，里諾2022年上半年全面投產。這些設施不僅會為我們提供更大的供應鏈彈性，還會顯著降低我們的運營成本，並將我們的毛利率提高約 1,000 個基點。

The challenges I just described are manageable. I can confirm that demand for our clean sustainable ingredients and for our industry-leading clean beauty brands is increasing beyond our expectations. These supply chain issues are global in nature, and we know they will have an impact during the fourth quarter as well. Anticipating this, during the third quarter, we prioritized and secured the supply needed for most of our expected demand in the fourth quarter, and we're now doing the same to ensure we have replenishment for the end of the year shipments to set up for the first quarter.

我剛才描述的挑戰是可以應對的。我可以確認，對我們的清潔可持續成分和我們行業領先的清潔美容品牌的需求增長超出了我們的預期。這些供應鏈問題本質上是全球性的，我們知道它們也會在第四季度產生影響。預計到這一點，在第三季度，我們優先考慮並確保了第四季度大部分預期需求所需的供應，我們現在也在做同樣的事情，以確保我們為年底的出貨量進行補貨第一季度。

Let me now turn to Slide 7. The JV partnership for next-generation COVID-19 RNA vaccine. As I've explained on multiple occasions, our lab-to-market platform is versatile. We have chosen to focus on certain verticals because of addressable market, growth and margin profile and the speed of technology adoption. We have the only proven business model in our industry. and the demand for our products is a great testament to the future of all chemistry. It will be clean and sustainable and mostly made from synthetic biology enabled through fermentation.

現在讓我轉到幻燈片 7。下一代 COVID-19 RNA 疫苗的合資夥伴關係。正如我在多個場合解釋過的那樣，我們的實驗室到市場平台是多功能的。由於可尋址市場、增長和利潤率狀況以及技術採用速度，我們選擇專注於某些垂直領域。我們擁有業內唯一經過驗證的商業模式。對我們產品的需求很好地證明了所有化學的未來。它將是清潔和可持續的，主要由通過發酵實現的合成生物學製成。

Flavor, fragrance and health ingredients was our first commercial vertical, including such a making ingredients as natural vanillin and sandalwood, where we are now the world's leading supplier. We have some of the best brands in the fastest-growing categories in beauty and personal care, and our business model is delivering the best growth in our sector.

香精香料和健康成分是我們第一個商業垂直領域，包括天然香蘭素和檀香等製造成分，我們現在是世界領先的供應商。我們在美容和個人護理領域擁有增長最快的類別中的一些最佳品牌，我們的商業模式正在為我們的行業帶來最佳增長。

Beauty is our second major vertical. Over the years, we have established strategic partnerships with the leading companies in each of these sectors. This is how we've built Amyris. Today, we announced the creation of our latest commercial platform with the creation of a new 50-50 joint venture with ImmunityBio, a leading late clinical stage immunotherapy company developing next-generation therapies that drive immunogenic mechanisms for the feeding cancers and infectious diseases.

美容是我們的第二大垂直領域。多年來，我們與各個領域的領先公司建立了戰略合作夥伴關係。這就是我們構建 Amyris 的方式。今天，我們宣布創建最新的商業平台，與 ImmunityBio 建立一個新的 50-50 合資企業，ImmunityBio 是一家領先的後期臨床階段免疫治療公司，開發下一代療法，驅動癌症和傳染病的免疫原性機制。

We are very excited with the expansion into our next vertical, biopharma. ImmunityBio's Executive Chairman, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong and I share a common vision to make the lowest cost, best performing, next-generation RNA-based COVID-19 vaccine that's available to all. ImmunityBio has invested significantly in developing world-leading DNA and RNA vaccine production capacity and will be responsible for the manufacturing of the vaccine once human trials are successfully completed in South Africa.

我們對擴展到我們的下一個垂直生物製藥領域感到非常興奮。ImmunityBio 的執行主席 Patrick Soon-Shiong 博士和我有著共同的願景，即製造成本最低、性能最佳的下一代 RNA 基礎 COVID-19 疫苗，供所有人使用。ImmunityBio 已投入大量資金開發世界領先的 DNA 和 RNA 疫苗生產能力，一旦在南非成功完成人體試驗，將負責疫苗的生產。

Partnering with ImmunityBio provides us the capability to complete human trials, and upon successful completion, quickly move into manufacturing with the objective to deliver 1 billion doses next year through our JV, addressing the unmet needs of access to vaccines in developing countries, cold chain and durability challenges facing the world today. We have visited ImmunityBio's manufacturing facilities and can't confirm they will be ready to produce over 1 billion doses in 2022, starting as early as the first quarter. The JV company is structured to minimize capital investment for both parties. We will each be leveraging what we already have. Immunity has excellent manufacturing assets and clinical trial capability. Amyris has capacity for billions of doses of squalene supply for the adjuvant, and is contributing our advanced RNA technology, specifically for COVID-19.

與 ImmunityBio 的合作使我們能夠完成人體試驗，並在成功完成後迅速進入生產階段，目標是明年通過我們的合資企業交付 10 億劑疫苗，解決發展中國家未滿足的疫苗獲取需求、冷鍊和當今世界面臨的耐久性挑戰。我們已經參觀了 ImmunityBio 的製造設施，但無法確認他們是否準備好在 2022 年第一季度開始生產超過 10 億劑疫苗。合資公司的結構旨在最大限度地減少雙方的資本投資。我們每個人都將利用我們已有的資源。Immunity 擁有卓越的製造資產和臨床試驗能力。Amyris 有能力為佐劑供應數十億劑量的角鯊烯，並正在貢獻我們先進的 RNA 技術，特別是針對 COVID-19。

We are in active discussions with several governments from the U.S. to Brazil, Portugal and South Africa. And with the successful completion of human trials can quickly scale distribution. The JV will be operated as a separate entity with its own management to not distract us from our core business. Before I hand off to Eduardo, let me make a few comments about the rest of this year and the outlook for 2022.

我們正在與美國、巴西、葡萄牙和南非等多個國家的政府進行積極討論。並且隨著人體試驗的順利完成可以迅速規模化佈局。合資企業將作為一個獨立的實體運營，擁有自己的管理層，以免分散我們對核心業務的注意力。在我交給 Eduardo 之前，讓我對今年剩餘時間和 2022 年的展望發表一些評論。

We have built the leading synthetic biology platform in the world. This could be measured in many ways, the number of products scaled, individual molecules from different pathways produced in fermentation and delivered at industrial scale to partners, not just farnesene derivatives. Thousands of tons of clean ingredients produced -- that are reducing the carbon footprint of many industries. We have the underlying assets, expertise, pipeline, growing brands to deliver $2 billion of revenue by the end of 2025. We are experiencing stronger demand than expected for our consumer brands and are super frustrated by the short-term challenges of global supply chains. We will quickly work through these issues.

我們建立了全球領先的合成生物學平台。這可以通過多種方式來衡量，如規模化的產品數量、來自不同途徑的單個分子在發酵中產生並以工業規模交付給合作夥伴，而不僅僅是法尼烯衍生物。生產了數千噸清潔原料——正在減少許多行業的碳足跡。我們擁有基礎資產、專業知識、渠道和成長中的品牌，到 2025 年底將實現 20 億美元的收入。我們對我們的消費品牌的需求比預期的要強，並且對全球供應鏈的短期挑戰感到非常沮喪。我們將快速解決這些問題。

We expect to end the year between $330 million and $370 million in revenue. We are changing our outlook out of prudence. We are adjusting to inventory that we have on hand. We have the potential for significant upside if we are able to access more components and ingredients. We are doing everything possible to ship material, but these external factors are directly impacting our revenue and margins. For 2022, we expect revenue to exceed $500 million. We have previously indicated an expected revenue of $1 billion for 2023. This performance is consistent with the guidance we've been providing of doubling recurring revenue annually.

我們預計今年年底的收入將在 3.3 億美元至 3.7 億美元之間。我們正在謹慎地改變我們的前景。我們正在調整手頭的庫存。如果我們能夠獲得更多的組件和成分，我們就有可能獲得顯著的優勢。我們正在盡一切可能運送材料，但這些外部因素直接影響我們的收入和利潤。到 2022 年，我們預計收入將超過 5 億美元。我們之前曾表示 2023 年的預期收入為 10 億美元。這一業績與我們一直提供的每年將經常性收入翻一番的指導意見一致。

Our 2022 revenue consists of around $200 million from our legacy brands, most of this from Biossance and Pipette, which are both accelerating in growth and delivering very strong performance into the fourth quarter. $50 million of this from brands launched in 2021, such as JVN and Rose Inc., $75 million from brands that we plan on launch and are purchasing in 2022. We have a strong pipeline of signed brands and are in the middle of purchasing 3 new assets for the portfolio. And then $100 million from the earn-out and technology collaboration payments, and over $100 million in ingredient sales. This is how we underpin over $500 million of '22 -- of 2022 revenue, which we have a lot of confidence in.

我們 2022 年的收入包括來自傳統品牌的約 2 億美元，其中大部分來自 Biossance 和 Pipette，這兩個品牌都在加速增長，並在第四季度實現了非常強勁的業績。其中 5000 萬美元來自 2021 年推出的品牌，例如 JVN 和 Rose Inc.，7500 萬美元來自我們計劃在 2022 年推出併購買的品牌。我們擁有強大的簽約品牌渠道，並且正在為投資組合購買 3 項新資產。然後是 1 億美元的收入和技術合作付款，以及超過 1 億美元的原料銷售額。這就是我們如何支撐 2022 年超過 5 億美元的收入，我們對此充滿信心。

We expect this to deliver gross margin in the 60% to 65% range and to be EBITDA positive for 2022. We've grown our consumer business by 8.4x during the global pandemic and expect to deliver over $325 million of profitable consumer revenue in 2022 from a business that delivered $17 million of revenue during 2019.

我們預計這將帶來 60% 至 65% 的毛利率，並在 2022 年實現 EBITDA 正增長。在全球大流行期間，我們的消費者業務增長了 8.4 倍，預計到 2022 年將從 2019 年實現 1700 萬美元收入的業務中獲得超過 3.25 億美元的盈利消費者收入。

We have not been able to keep up with this growth in our supply chain and back office. And we are really focused on investing and keeping up without slowing down this consumer demand for our products. We are very pleased with the underlying demand in our business and the growth in our recurring revenue. This is the best proof that synthetic biology is truly a critical component to a healthier planet. We are the only sustainable path to clean natural chemistry that is sustainable and that is what consumers throughout the world are demanding now.

我們無法跟上供應鍊和後台辦公室的這種增長。我們真正專注於投資和跟上發展，而不會減緩消費者對我們產品的需求。我們對業務的潛在需求和經常性收入的增長感到非常滿意。這是合成生物學真正成為更健康星球的關鍵組成部分的最好證明。我們是通往可持續的清潔天然化學的唯一可持續途徑，而這正是全世界消費者現在所要求的。

Eduardo will now cover our operational performance, and provide an update on our new projects for resilience and added capacity. Eduardo?

Eduardo 現在將介紹我們的運營績效，並提供有關我們新的彈性和增加容量項目的最新信息。愛德華多？

Thank you, John. In addition to reviewing operational results, I'm going to describe the strategic investments we are making in production capabilities for both our ingredients and for our consumer portfolio. In our ingredients business, we achieved record results for our leading fragrance product, delivering production and performance that was 20% higher than our production stretch targets during the third quarter production campaign. We achieved similar improvements for all our flavors and fragrance ingredients we produced in the third quarter.

謝謝你，約翰。除了審查運營結果外，我還將描述我們在原料和消費者產品組合的生產能力方面進行的戰略投資。在我們的配料業務中，我們領先的香水產品取得了創紀錄的成績，在第三季度的生產活動中，產量和性能比我們的生產延伸目標高出 20%。我們在第三季度生產的所有香精香料成分都取得了類似的改進。

Our teams are delivering the best performance for all of these ingredients, as we continue to scale them. Despite shortfalls, we sold all our ingredient production as consumers continue to demand the best natural and sustainable ingredients. Expanding also on John's comments on the supply chain shortages and ingredients, I want to add a few comments. John captured only those shortfalls due to raw materials. In fact, we had delays in the delivery of membranes, which pushed out about half our vanillin purification to the fourth quarter. This represented another $2 million in revenue missed ingredients that were pushed to the next quarter. By the way, that production campaign right now is running very smoothly.

隨著我們繼續擴大規模，我們的團隊正在為所有這些成分提供最佳性能。儘管存在短缺，但隨著消費者對最好的天然和可持續原料的需求不斷增加，我們出售了所有原料產品。還擴展了約翰對供應鏈短缺和成分的評論，我想補充一些評論。約翰只捕捉到因原材料造成的不足。事實上，我們在膜交付方面出現了延誤，這將我們大約一半的香蘭素純化工作推遲到了第四季度。這代表另外 200 萬美元的收入錯過了被推到下一季度的成分。順便說一句，現在的生產活動進行得非常順利。

We are making strong progress with sustainable squalane for pharma, positioned as an ingredient for vaccine adjuvants. Our squalane scale-up production already achieved industry-leading purity levels of over 99.5%. Our natural fermentation-based squalane supply has the potential to be transformational as the world needs a scalable vaccine platform that can replace adjuvants derived from shark.

我們在製藥用可持續角鯊烷方面取得了重大進展，定位為疫苗佐劑的一種成分。我們的角鯊烷放大生產已經達到行業領先的純度水平，超過 99.5%。我們基於天然發酵的角鯊烷供應有可能發生變革，因為世界需要一個可擴展的疫苗平台來替代來自鯊魚的佐劑。

As a result, we are finalizing our long-term production agreement to scale up production of squalane operating under pharma GMP conditions. Another new ingredient Biosilica, which is produced by processing sugarcane ashes. This is a waste product of burning sugarcane fibers to generate sustainable electrical energy at our fermentation plant. This project demonstrates our full commitment to capturing value from our waste streams and cultivating the circular economy. Commercially, we have received tremendous interest from the market, and over 500 customers have sampled our Biosilica with many more in the pipeline.

因此，我們正在敲定我們的長期生產協議，以擴大在製藥 GMP 條件下運營的角鯊烷的生產。另一種新成分生物二氧化矽是通過加工甘蔗灰製成的。這是在我們的發酵廠燃燒甘蔗纖維以產生可持續電能的廢品。該項目表明我們完全致力於從我們的廢物流中獲取價值和培育循環經濟。在商業上，我們收到了市場的極大興趣，超過 500 位客戶對我們的生物二氧化矽進行了採樣，還有更多客戶正在籌備中。

Let me also provide an update regarding a new fermentation plant at Barra Bonita in Brazil. Although we have encountered difficulties related to the sourcing of certain construction materials, especially steel, we have worked very hard to keep the delivery of key items on schedule. All the fermenters are already installed in the fermentation tower, and all our long lead equipment will be delivered in the next few weeks and also in the first part of 2022. We remain on target to start production at this plant in early 2022.

我還要提供有關巴西 Barra Bonita 新發酵廠的最新消息。儘管我們在某些建築材料（尤其是鋼材）的採購方面遇到了困難，但我們非常努力地保持關鍵項目的按時交付。所有的發酵罐都已經安裝在發酵塔中，我們所有的長周期設備將在接下來的幾週內以及 2022 年上半年交付。我們仍計劃在 2022 年初在該工廠投產。

Looking at our consumer products during our third quarter, we launched 4 new brands, and our team successfully formulated, produced and delivered 28 new products on time. We're making important changes to our production and supply chain capabilities to underpin the future growth. As John mentioned, we are building a new production capability to support the scale-up of our brands, and we have leased 150,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Reno, Nevada.

看看我們第三季度的消費產品，我們推出了 4 個新品牌，我們的團隊成功地制定、生產並按時交付了 28 種新產品。我們正在對我們的生產和供應鏈能力做出重大改變，以支持未來的增長。正如 John 提到的，我們正在建設新的生產能力以支持我們品牌的擴大，我們在內華達州里諾租用了 150,000 平方英尺的製造工廠。

This facility is designed to bring full compounding, filling and packaging capabilities in-house. This facility is large enough to accommodate our growth expectations across product lines and brands to meet our needs for the next 3 years. We are targeting production of this new facility for the first half of 2022. The advantages are a much simpler, resilient production model, faster scalability and lower unit costs. This plant will be a crucial foundational capability to supplement our excellence in formulation, marketing and brand building.

該設施旨在在內部提供完整的複合、灌裝和包裝能力。該設施足夠大，可以滿足我們對產品線和品牌的增長預期，從而滿足我們未來 3 年的需求。我們的目標是在 2022 年上半年投產這個新設施。優點是更簡單、更有彈性的生產模型、更快的可擴展性和更低的單位成本。該工廠將成為補充我們在配方、營銷和品牌建設方面卓越表現的重要基礎能力。

Let me close by concluding on the 3 priorities that we have for the rest of this year. First, we must continue progress on construction of the new plants in Barra Bonita and Reno. Second, our consumer business, it's an all-hands-on-deck approach to deliver the best end-of-the-year holiday season, and to ramp up for first quarter production. For example, for Pipette, our production in the fourth quarter must also deliver the opening inventory for 6,000 new doors we expect in the first quarter of 2022, and we are on track to do that. And finally, monitoring and reporting on the progress of our RNA vaccine clinical trials that John mentioned.

最後，讓我總結一下我們今年剩餘時間的 3 個優先事項。首先，我們必須繼續推進巴拉博尼塔和里諾新工廠的建設。其次，我們的消費者業務，這是一種全員參與的方法，可以提供最好的年終假期，並提高第一季度的產量。例如，對於 Pipette，我們第四季度的生產還必須交付我們預計在 2022 年第一季度推出的 6,000 扇新門的開業庫存，我們正在按計劃實現這一目標。最後，監測和報告 John 提到的我們 RNA 疫苗臨床試驗的進展情況。

With that, I will turn the call over to Han to review the financial results. Han?

有了這個，我會把電話轉給韓審查財務結果。韓？

Thanks, Eduardo. Please turn to Slide 9. Despite the factors we've discussed, which impacted revenue during the quarter, our revenue growth trajectory remains intact, and we recorded another quarter of record sales revenue, both on an underlying basis and for our consumer brands. We also continue to systemically address our capital structure and have made tremendous progress over the past 18 months on both the debt and equity side of the balance sheet. We further reduced our legacy debt position to $102 million. This compares to $297 million at the start of 2020 and $171 million at the start of this year. We have consistently guided for debt to be below $100 million by the end of this calendar year, and we have clear line of sight to achieving this.

謝謝，愛德華多。請轉到幻燈片 9。儘管我們已經討論過影響本季度收入的因素，但我們的收入增長軌跡仍然完好無損，並且我們在基礎基礎上和我們的消費品牌方面又創下了創紀錄的銷售收入。我們還繼續系統地解決我們的資本結構問題，並在過去 18 個月中在資產負債表的債務和股權方面取得了巨大進展。我們進一步將遺留債務頭寸減少至 1.02 億美元。相比之下，2020 年初為 2.97 億美元，今年年初為 1.71 億美元。我們一直指導到本日曆年年底債務將低於 1 億美元，我們對實現這一目標有明確的看法。

On the equity side, we have continued to diversify our shareholder base with the expansion of long institutional investors versus the year ago quarter. Also, we have nearly fully addressed the outstanding warrants of which only $4 million remain, which compares to $50 million this time last year. Cash at the end of the quarter was $115 million compared to $38 million at the end of Q3 2020.

在股權方面，與去年同期相比，隨著多頭機構投資者的擴大，我們繼續使股東基礎多樣化。此外，我們幾乎完全處理了未償還的認股權證，其中只剩下 400 萬美元，而去年這個時候是 5000 萬美元。本季度末現金為 1.15 億美元，而 2020 年第三季度末為 3800 萬美元。

During the quarter, we had above average use of cash of around $100 million. In addition to working capital needs associated with our rapidly growing business, uses of cash included $23 million associated with various transactions, including M&A, $15 million associated with ongoing construction of the Brazil plant, which was in full motion during the quarter, and approximately $7 million of investments in inventory and other costs to ensure supply chain readiness for our new brand launches and the end-of-year holiday season, which equated to that.

本季度，我們使用的現金超過平均水平約 1 億美元。除了與我們快速增長的業務相關的營運資金需求外，現金使用還包括與各種交易相關的 2300 萬美元，包括併購、與巴西工廠的持續建設相關的 1500 萬美元，該工廠在本季度全面啟動，以及大約 7 美元百萬美元的庫存和其他成本投資，以確保供應鍊為我們的新品牌發布和年底假期做好準備，這等同於此。

Total revenue of $48 million, increasing 40% compared to Q3 2020 revenue of $34 million. Product revenue of $37 million, increased 17% compared to the third quarter of last year, with product revenue of $31 million driven by record consumer revenue of $23 million, an 89% increase. Total year-to-date revenue of $277 million, improved 197% versus the prior year period. Total revenue included $154 million of proceeds resulting from strategic transactions. Total underlying revenue, which is the sum of product and collaboration, R&D and other services, increased 39% to $123 million compared to $89 million in the first 9 months of 2020. Product revenue of $102 million, increased $26 million or 33% compared to the first 9 months of last year, driven by a $25 million or 73% increase in consumer sales.

總收入為 4800 萬美元，與 2020 年第三季度的 3400 萬美元收入相比增長 40%。產品收入為 3700 萬美元，與去年第三季度相比增長 17%，其中產品收入為 3100 萬美元，受到創紀錄的消費者收入 2300 萬美元的推動，增長 89%。年初至今的總收入為 2.77 億美元，比去年同期增長 197%。總收入包括 1.54 億美元的戰略交易收益。與 2020 年前 9 個月的 8900 萬美元相比，基礎收入總額（即產品與協作、研發和其他服務的總和）增長了 39%，達到 1.23 億美元。產品收入為 1.02 億美元，與去年前 9 個月相比增加 2600 萬美元或 33%，這主要受消費者銷售額增長 2500 萬美元或 73% 的推動。

Biossance international expansion continued through space in Canada, U.K., and can now be found in 14 different retailer chains worldwide. Pipette also continued to deliver on its commitment to improve the accessibility of clean products for babies, mothers and families, and can now be found in 236 new stores across Canada, and it was also launched in 180 new stores in the U.S. during the quarter. Also, as previously commented, Rose Inc., and JVN hosted a number of launch events and got into the market in this past quarter.

Biossance 的國際擴張繼續通過加拿大、英國的空間進行，現在可以在全球 14 家不同的零售連鎖店中找到。Pipette 還繼續履行其為嬰兒、母親和家庭改善清潔產品可及性的承諾，現在可以在加拿大各地的 236 家新商店中找到它，並且在本季度還在美國的 180 家新商店中推出。此外，如前所述，Rose Inc. 和 JVN 在上個季度舉辦了一系列發布會並進入市場。

Third quarter ingredient revenue decreased versus the prior year quarter, primarily due to previously discussed supply chain and sourcing challenges during the quarter. Demand for our ingredients remained strong. And through the end of Q3, sales volume for squalane, used in skin care and other products, surpassed total 2020 sales volume. We look forward to have our Barra Bonita plant coming online early in 2022 as demand continues to increase, and production capacity will only become more critical to meeting our ambitious growth targets.

第三季度成分收入與去年同期相比有所下降，這主要是由於之前討論過的本季度供應鍊和採購挑戰。對我們原料的需求依然強勁。到第三季度末，用於護膚和其他產品的角鯊烷的銷量超過了 2020 年的總銷量。隨著需求持續增長，我們期待我們的 Barra Bonita 工廠在 2022 年初上線，而產能對於實現我們雄心勃勃的增長目標只會變得更加重要。

Non-GAAP gross margin of $ 18 million or 37% of revenue grew from $14 million or 41% of revenue in Q2 2020. Margin as a percent of revenue was down primarily due to the impact from the supply chain challenges that we previously described on this call. High shipping costs and special air freight, among others, were drivers of cost increases. Lastly, ingredients product mix was a factor as well as no longer having the value share on the F&F portfolio following the DSM transaction, which was $4 million in the comparative quarter of last year.

非美國通用會計準則毛利率從 2020 年第二季度的 1400 萬美元或收入的 41% 增長至 1800 萬美元或收入的 37%。利潤率佔收入的百分比下降主要是由於我們之前在本次電話會議上描述的供應鏈挑戰的影響。高運輸成本和特殊空運等是成本增加的驅動因素。最後，配料產品組合是一個因素，在 DSM 交易後不再在 F&F 投資組合中佔有價值份額，去年同期為 400 萬美元。

Cash operating expense of $81 million increased by $38 million or 88% compared to the prior year quarter. We invested approximately $9 million in head count and $5 million for fulfillment and shipping due to increased consumer sales, partly driven by the new brand launches.

與去年同期相比，8100 萬美元的現金運營費用增加了 3800 萬美元或 88%。由於消費者銷售額增加，我們在員工人數上投資了約 900 萬美元，在履行和運輸方面投資了 500 萬美元，部分原因是新品牌的推出。

Adjusted EBITDA of minus $73 million, decreased $40 million year-over-year, primarily due to higher operating expense. GAAP net loss is significantly influenced by noncash mark-to-market adjustments related to changes in the fair value of debt and derivatives. GAAP net loss of $33 million or $0.11 per share compared to a loss of $84 million or $0.37 per share in Q3 2020. Adjusted net loss of $80 million or $0.27 per share compared to an adjusted net loss of $50 million or $0.22 per share in Q3 of 2020.

調整後的 EBITDA 為負 7300 萬美元，同比減少 4000 萬美元，主要原因是運營費用增加。GAAP 淨虧損受到與債務和衍生品公允價值變化相關的非現金市值調整的重大影響。GAAP 淨虧損 3300 萬美元或每股 0.11 美元，而 2020 年第三季度為虧損 8400 萬美元或每股 0.37 美元。調整後的淨虧損為 8000 萬美元或每股 0.27 美元，而 2020 年第三季度的調整後淨虧損為 5000 萬美元或每股 0.22 美元。

Let me make a few comments regarding year-to-date. Total year-to-date revenue of $277 million improved 197% versus the prior year period. That total revenue included $154 million of proceeds from strategic transactions. Underlying revenue increased 39% to $123 million compared to $88 million in the first 9 months. And then product revenue of $102 million, increased $26 million or 33% compared to the first 9 months of 2020 driven by $25 million or 73% increase in consumer sales.

讓我就今年迄今發表一些評論。年初至今的總收入為 2.77 億美元，比上年同期增長 197%。該總收入包括 1.54 億美元的戰略交易收益。與前 9 個月的 8800 萬美元相比，基礎收入增長了 39% 至 1.23 億美元。然後產品收入為 1.02 億美元，與 2020 年前 9 個月相比增加了 2600 萬美元或 33%，這得益於消費者銷售額增長 2500 萬美元或 73%。

Non-GAAP gross margin of $205 million or 74% of revenue, improved from $44 million or 47% of revenue in the first 9 months of 2020. Excluding the contribution from the strategic transactions, gross margin of $51 million, grew $30 million compared to the first 9 months of 2020, primarily due to consumer-related growth. Adjusted EBITDA of minus $12 million improved $84 million year-over-year due to revenue and margin growth and proceeds from the strategic transactions.

非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 2.05 億美元，佔收入的 74%，高於 2020 年前 9 個月的 4400 萬美元或收入的 47%。不包括戰略交易的貢獻，毛利率為 5100 萬美元，與 2020 年前 9 個月相比增長了 3000 萬美元，這主要是由於與消費者相關的增長。由於收入和利潤增長以及戰略交易的收益，調整後的 EBITDA 為負 1200 萬美元，同比增加 8400 萬美元。

Now let me turn to Slide 12. Shortly after announcing our third quarter financial results, we also announced that we have commenced a $400 million convertible note offering. This offering is a natural continuation of an 18-month process of retiring costly legacy debt, diversifying and institutionalizing our shareholder base as well as the funding of strategic capital projects such as our Barra Bonita ingredients plant and funding rapidly accelerating growth. We are excited about the future and believe these strategic steps, both operationally and regarding our capital structure will set us up well for continued success.

現在讓我轉到幻燈片 12。在公佈第三季度財務業績後不久，我們還宣布我們已開始發行 4 億美元的可轉換票據。此次發行是為期 18 個月的過程的自然延續，這些過程包括償還昂貴的遺留債務、使我們的股東基礎多樣化和製度化，以及為我們的 Barra Bonita 配料廠等戰略資本項目提供資金，並為快速增長提供資金。我們對未來感到興奮，並相信這些戰略步驟，無論是在運營上還是在我們的資本結構方面，都將為我們的持續成功做好準備。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to John.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Han. We set ambitious operational and financial goals, and we believe that our winning business model and advantage portfolio is well positioned to achieve an estimated $2 billion in revenue during 2025. Given the high growth expectation for the consumer portfolio and the end markets we have chosen to serve, the portfolio is expected to shift further towards consumer from 40% of total revenue in 2020 to 72% by 2025. Targeted 2025 consumer revenue is $1.4 billion from our expanded family of brands. Meanwhile, we also expect to continue to grow our ingredients business to a total of about $0.5 billion with a total of 30 molecules being scaled and actively being manufactured. We have the leading technology platform in our industry, a proven business model and significant growth momentum.

謝謝你，韓。我們設定了雄心勃勃的運營和財務目標，我們相信我們成功的商業模式和優勢組合能夠在 2025 年實現約 20 億美元的收入。鑑於對消費者組合和我們選擇服務的終端市場的高增長預期，預計該組合將進一步轉向消費者，從 2020 年佔總收入的 40% 增加到 2025 年的 72%。2025 年目標消費者收入為 14 億美元，來自我們擴大的品牌系列。同時，我們還希望繼續將我們的配料業務增長到總額約 5 億美元，共有 30 種分子正在規模化和積極製造中。我們擁有業內領先的技術平台、行之有效的商業模式和顯著的增長勢頭。

Now is also the right time to execute the last step in our strategy for capital structure. Now is the moment to really capitalize our business for growth, eliminate expensive legacy debt and fully fund our manufacturing footprint. Over the last 2 years, we have all observed firsthand how delicate the balance of our world is. And I'm really proud of the people at Amyris for their dedication and commitment to creating, producing and making available products to the world that impact all of us with minimal impact to our environment.

現在也是執行我們資本結構戰略最後一步的合適時機。現在是真正利用我們的業務實現增長、消除昂貴的遺留債務並為我們的製造足跡提供充分資金的時刻。在過去的 2 年裡，我們都親眼目睹了我們這個世界的平衡是多麼微妙。我真的為 Amyris 的員工感到自豪，他們致力於創造、生產和向世界提供影響我們所有人的產品，同時對環境的影響最小。

Andrea, let's now go to the questions, please. Thank you.

Andrea，現在讓我們開始提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自奧本海默的 Colin Rusch。

Can you give us just a sense of the timing for the completion of trials with ImmunityBio? And when we can see those results come out?

您能告訴我們完成 ImmunityBio 試驗的時間嗎？我們什麼時候能看到這些結果出來？

Colin, good to have you on the call. We're expecting early results by the end of the year. And then final results probably early in the year, early first quarter.

科林，很高興你接聽電話。我們預計到今年年底會有早期結果。然後最終結果可能在今年年初，第一季度初。

Okay. Perfect. And then with the CapEx elements that are coming first part of the next year, what are you guys waiting on for those deliveries? And where are those elements right now just in terms of their location in the world and their timing? I guess how content are you in terms of having those things all arrive on time early next year?

好的。完美的。然後隨著明年上半年即將到來的資本支出元素，你們還在等什麼？就這些元素在世界上的位置和時間而言，它們現在在哪裡？我猜你對明年初所有這些東西都準時到達感到滿意嗎？

We actually need them to arrive hopefully by the beginning of December. One of the things that I know is pretty hard to appreciate is with the level of growth we're experiencing on the consumer business, we're having a pull forward as much raw material as we can. And when I say raw material, I'll give you an example of one of the things that's kind of silly, but causes significant issues for us, the caps on bottles is a perfect example, and pumps. Those are 2 great examples of different components that are actually critical for our consumer business and that we expect mostly from China.

我們實際上需要他們在 12 月初之前滿懷希望地到達。我知道很難理解的一件事是，隨著我們在消費者業務上的增長水平，我們正在盡可能多地推動原材料。當我說原材料時，我會給你舉一個例子，其中一件事情有點愚蠢，但會給我們帶來重大問題，瓶蓋和泵就是一個很好的例子。這些是不同組件的兩個很好的例子，它們實際上對我們的消費者業務至關重要，我們希望它們主要來自中國。

I would tell you right now that most of what we need is on water. So the big issue is can we get it all unloaded and can we get ports cleared? We believe, based on what we're seeing right now, that we'll be fine. But just for the abundance of prudence, we wanted to make sure we realigned our expectations for the year with what we have on hand. And hopefully, if we can get the ships unloaded and the components in on time for manufacturing, we'll be able to ship everything we expect by the end of the year and be nearer to where we thought we'd finish off our year to begin with.

我現在就告訴你，我們需要的大部分東西都在水上。所以最大的問題是我們能否將其全部卸載並清除端口？我們相信，根據我們現在所看到的，我們會沒事的。但出於謹慎考慮，我們希望確保我們根據手頭的情況重新調整對今年的期望。希望，如果我們能夠按時卸下船隻並按時運送部件進行製造，我們將能夠在今年年底之前運送我們期望的所有東西，並且更接近我們認為我們可以完成這一年的目標首先。

So I hope that helps, Colin. Eduardo, do you want to add anything to that?

所以我希望這對您有所幫助，科林。Eduardo，你想補充什麼嗎？

I think you captured it very well. The numbers that you saw really include products that's already either produced or already in the distribution centers.

我覺得你抓得很好。您看到的數字確實包括已經生產或已經在配送中心的產品。

The next question comes from Rahul Sarugaser of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Rahul Sarugaser。

I guess my first question is -- congratulations on being the first company with the CBG products to market. So you didn't really cover that too much on the call. So would you be able to give us a little bit of an update on the CBG beauty products, any sort of next cannabinoids and sort of new form factors around the cannabinoids?

我想我的第一個問題是——祝賀您成為第一家將 CBG 產品推向市場的公司。所以你並沒有在電話中說太多。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下 CBG 美容產品、任何種類的下一個大麻素以及大麻素周圍的新形式因素？

Sure. Happy to do that. I mean the first thing I'll tell you is we've already booked multimillions of revenue this year from CBG. So I can tell you the CBG is off to a good start, and we're excited about its potential. Right now, the major product we're formulating in, obviously, is our product targeted at acne and other skin conditions. What I will tell you that we're finding from consumer feedback is that for achy bones, for muscle pains, especially sport-related muscle pains, COVID-related cramping and muscle pains and a lot of other bone inflammations, the combination of the CBG and the squalane formulation, we're seeing have a tremendous impact on those pains.

當然。很高興這樣做。我的意思是我要告訴你的第一件事是我們今年已經從 CBG 獲得了數百萬的收入。所以我可以告訴你，CBG 開局不錯，我們對其潛力感到興奮。現在，我們正在配製的主要產品顯然是針對痤瘡和其他皮膚狀況的產品。我要告訴你的是，我們從消費者反饋中發現，對於骨骼疼痛、肌肉疼痛，尤其是與運動相關的肌肉疼痛、與 COVID 相關的痙攣和肌肉疼痛以及許多其他骨骼炎症，CBG 的組合和角鯊烷配方，我們看到對這些疼痛有巨大的影響。

I mean, somewhat very, very surprising, like overnight cramping going away and muscle pains and bruising going away. So we're in process of launching an application targeted at that based on how good we're seeing the efficacy and the clinical data that we're getting back. And again, we expect to see our consumer brand around that -- those categories, Terasana, continued to do very well.

我的意思是，有點非常非常令人驚訝，就像一夜之間的抽筋消失了，肌肉疼痛和瘀傷消失了。因此，我們正在根據我們看到的療效和返回的臨床數據的好壞來啟動針對該應用程序的應用程序。再一次，我們希望看到我們的消費品牌——這些類別，Terasana，繼續做得很好。

I always look at consumer ratings and how well we're getting repeat purchase from the brand as a great sign of the brand's future potential. And I think we're seeing that in spades. And I'd expect to see quite a bit of growth going into the fourth quarter and into next year. So those are 2 examples of where we're really aggressively moving CBG. We have several other minor cannabinoids now in the portfolio. I'd expect our second and third likely out by the end of 2022.

我總是關註消費者評級以及我們從該品牌獲得重複購買的情況，以此作為該品牌未來潛力的重要標誌。我認為我們確實看到了這一點。我預計第四季度和明年會出現相當大的增長。所以這些是我們真正積極推動 CBG 的兩個例子。我們現在的產品組合中還有其他幾種小大麻素。我預計我們的第二個和第三個可能會在 2022 年底推出。

And the other thing I'd say is we've had some major breakthroughs in enzyme discovery and gene use to provide us great confidence that we have no IP limitations now relative to anybody else in the market to where we are in the pathway and how we've evolved the technology. So not only we have a platform now that's able to very quickly, 6 months or less, engineer and scale minor cannabinoids, but also clear of anybody's IP and really focused on ensuring we've got the best pathway to be able to scale minor cannabinoids quickly to market.

我要說的另一件事是，我們在酶發現和基因使用方面取得了一些重大突破，這讓我們充滿信心，相對於市場上的其他任何人，我們現在沒有知識產權限制，我們在這條道路上的位置以及如何我們已經發展了這項技術。因此，我們現在不僅擁有一個平台，能夠在 6 個月或更短的時間內非常快速地設計和擴展小大麻素，而且還清除任何人的知識產權，真正專注於確保我們擁有能夠擴展小大麻素的最佳途徑迅速推向市場。

I mean the other thing I'd say, really an important point, we're now under about $1,000 a kilo. And we expect over the next couple of quarters, we'll be at $500 a kilo or less for production cost of CBG, and that's also pretty miraculous. I don't think anyone is anywhere near that cost of goods for CBG. And we're excited about what that gives us in market power and being able to really scale for different applications, as we take minor cannabinoids to market.

我的意思是我要說的另一件事，非常重要的一點，我們現在每公斤不到 1,000 美元。我們預計在接下來的幾個季度中，CBG 的生產成本將達到每公斤 500 美元或更低，這也是一個奇蹟。我認為沒有人能接近 CBG 的商品成本。當我們將次要大麻素推向市場時，我們對這賦予我們市場力量並能夠真正針對不同應用進行擴展感到興奮。

Indeed, that's really good color. I appreciate that. So just a quick follow-up question, and pivoting towards fermentation capacity. You refer in the PR to new fermentation facilities being constructed. How do you see the balance and strategic balance between proprietary fermentation capacity versus CMO? Are you seeing bottlenecks out there? And how are you setting up your strategy around fermentation capacity?

確實，那是非常好的顏色。我很感激。所以只是一個快速的後續問題，並轉向發酵能力。您在 PR 中提到正在建造的新發酵設施。您如何看待專有發酵能力與 CMO 之間的平衡和戰略平衡？你看到瓶頸了嗎？您如何圍繞發酵能力製定戰略？

Look, I mean, it starts with our observation that third-party fermentation capacity is not as efficient. It has significantly greater risk of contamination, and it's much higher cost. So for us, the priority is really simple, let's move everything we can as fast as we can to our proprietary manufacturing in Brazil. And just to give you a sense, I mean, in a way, our cost of goods in our proprietary system is at least half of what it is doing in the third party and in some cases a 1/3, right?

看，我的意思是，這始於我們觀察到第三方發酵能力效率不高。它具有更大的污染風險，並且成本更高。所以對我們來說，當務之急很簡單，讓我們盡可能快地將一切轉移到我們在巴西的專有製造中。只是為了給你一個感覺，我的意思是，在某種程度上，我們專有系統中的商品成本至少是它在第三方中所做的一半，在某些情況下是 1/3，對嗎？

So for us, that's a major priority. It is not keeping us from volume. We've -- I mean, CBG is a good example. We've been producing as much CBG as we want at our Spanish facility in León. The Spanish facility is a great manufacturing facility that we've actually taken a lot of downstream processing and skids and really customized the facility for our strains and our production, but it's costly. The feedstock is costly, and the processes are not as efficient.

所以對我們來說，這是一個主要優先事項。它並沒有讓我們遠離音量。我們——我的意思是，CBG 就是一個很好的例子。我們一直在位於萊昂的西班牙工廠生產盡可能多的 CBG。西班牙工廠是一個很棒的製造工廠，我們實際上已經進行了大量的下游加工和撬裝，並真正為我們的菌株和我們的生產定制了該設施，但它的成本很高。原料成本高，工藝效率低。

So we do have approval and expect to be producing CBG in Brazil as soon as Eduardo gets the plant up and operating, which will be early in 2022. So we're very excited about that, which is why I put out there that with the Brazil move for all of our fermentation, we will add about 1,000 basis points of gross margin to our overall -- or improve it by 1,000 basis points to our overall gross margin. So we're excited about that, but that's how we look at it. It's not a matter of can we do third party or not.

因此，我們確實獲得了批准，並希望在 Eduardo 的工廠啟動並投入運營後立即在巴西生產 CBG，這將在 2022 年初進行。所以我們對此感到非常興奮，這就是為什麼我在那裡提出，隨著巴西對我們所有發酵的舉措，我們將為我們的整體毛利率增加約 1,000 個基點 - 或者將其提高 1,000 個基點至我們的整體毛利率。所以我們對此感到很興奮，但這就是我們看待它的方式。這不是我們能不能做第三方的問題。

Scaling in a third party is very simple, and we have a machine for how we do that. We put our people in the third party. We have great SOPs for how we do that. We operate in big or small tanks, doesn't really matter to us. But it's all a matter of efficiency and cost and then being able to actually do it resiliently, which is really what Eduardo has been working on. Eduardo, would you like to add something to that?

在第三方中擴展非常簡單，我們有一台機器可以做到這一點。我們把我們的人放在第三方。對於如何做到這一點，我們有很好的 SOP。我們在大罐或小罐中操作，對我們來說並不重要。但這完全是效率和成本的問題，然後才能真正有彈性地做到這一點，這正是 Eduardo 一直在努力的方向。Eduardo，你想補充點什麼嗎？

Yes. Rahul, just to build on that, I think the 2 things I would say, for us, the Barra Bonita plant also gives us resilience and not just access to scale because of the fact that we can start to do a lot of our processing in a single site and avoid some of the risks in raw material deliveries that John alluded to in the ingredients discussion around the third quarter. The second point that I would like to just say is that we sized the facility for Brazil for Barra Bonita to more than meet our needs for the next 2 to 3 years. And this is remembering that we are seeing a 30% to 40% CAGR on all of those natural ingredients that we manufacture.

是的。Rahul，在此基礎上，我想我要說的兩件事是，對我們來說，Barra Bonita 工廠還為我們提供了彈性，而不僅僅是擴大規模，因為我們可以開始在一個單一的站點，並避免約翰在第三季度左右的成分討論中提到的原材料交付的一些風險。我想說的第二點是，我們為 Barra Bonita 調整了巴西設施的規模，以滿足我們未來 2 到 3 年的需求。這就是要記住，我們看到我們製造的所有這些天然成分的複合年增長率為 30% 到 40%。

The next question comes from Laurence Alexander of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

I guess the first one is, you gave some initial comments on the bridge for 2022. How should we think about the odds of further molecule monetization in 2022, 2023? That is how much of a priority is it for you? Or what do you see as kind of the demand pull or the possible potential magnitude if that were to happen?

我想第一個是，你對 2022 年的橋樑給出了一些初步評論。我們應該如何考慮 2022 年、2023 年進一步分子貨幣化的可能性？這對你來說有多重要？或者，如果這種情況發生，您如何看待需求拉動或可能的潛在規模？

Laurence, good to have you on the call. Look, we're not proactively working that. But I will tell you, I mean, a good example is our Novvi industrial lubricants company, which has been doing well in the background. That's something we talk about very much, but it's now partially owned, I think, somewhere between 20% and 30% owned by Chevron. And I can tell you on the back of some of the moves Chevron has made in lubricants that, that is a potential for us to monetize that technology. It's not core to us long term. And I would expect potential opportunities to come our way there.

勞倫斯，很高興你接聽電話。看，我們並沒有主動開展這項工作。但我會告訴你，我的意思是，一個很好的例子是我們的 Novvi 工業潤滑油公司，它在後台一直做得很好。這是我們經常談論的事情，但它現在部分擁有，我認為雪佛龍擁有 20% 到 30% 的股份。我可以告訴你雪佛龍在潤滑油方面採取的一些舉措，這是我們將這項技術貨幣化的潛力。從長遠來看，這對我們來說不是核心。我希望潛在的機會會出現在我們那裡。

I think the other are some of the farnesene derivatives, especially in the industrial side, and we have been very surprised at how much demand has accelerated for our farnesene polymer application into the tire industry. So I would say, in our core specialty ingredients, not likely at all, especially the unique pathways, unique molecules. But on farnesene derivatives, where there are very interesting derivatives that are accelerating demand for industrial markets, we may be opportunistic around that. And I also want to just clarify that none of that is built into our north of $500 million revenue for 2022. So it will be opportunistic.

我認為其他是一些法尼烯衍生物，尤其是在工業方面，我們對我們的法尼烯聚合物應用到輪胎行業的需求加速增長感到非常驚訝。所以我想說，在我們的核心專業成分中，根本不可能，尤其是獨特的途徑，獨特的分子。但在法尼烯衍生物方面，有一些非常有趣的衍生物正在加速對工業市場的需求，我們可能會對此持機會主義態度。我還想澄清一下，我們 2022 年 5 億美元的收入中沒有任何一項是內置的。所以這將是機會主義的。

And how should we think about the SG&A run rate going forward given where it was in Q3?

鑑於第三季度的情況，我們應該如何考慮未來的 SG&A 運行率？

Look, I think the main message for Q3 is there's a lot of onetimes in there that are related to both costs of a lot of the M&A activity, costs of supply chain, onboarding, just a lot of different costs in there, probably in the $8 million to $10 million range that were onetime. So when you look forward, I mean, I would expect a more steady number to look around the $70 million range versus what we put out there. And we are looking at that cost base very carefully to ensure we have leverage as we continue to grow. Han, is there something else you'd like to add on that?

看，我認為第三季度的主要信息是那裡有很多一次性與許多併購活動的成本、供應鏈成本、入職成本有關，只是那裡有很多不同的成本，可能在800 萬到 1000 萬美元的範圍是一次性的。因此，當你展望未來時，我的意思是，我預計會有一個更穩定的數字在 7000 萬美元左右，而不是我們在那裡提出的數字。我們正在非常仔細地研究這個成本基礎，以確保我們在繼續增長時有影響力。韓，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think that's spot on. I think in terms of the bifurcation between the ongoing and the -- and kind of the more one-off items in nature, I think John also mentioned just launching and setting up the new brands, obviously, takes an initial effort and investment. So we don't capitalize that. We put that out there as an expense. And then lastly, what I would say, and we've talked about this in the past, is there is a variable component to the growth of the consumer business in particular because the fulfillment and shipping expense is actually captured in selling. And so as the business continues to grow, that -- in terms of consumer activity, number of orders and so forth, that piece will be somewhat proportionate to that, but that's where I would put it.

不。我認為這是正確的。我認為就正在進行的和 - 以及本質上更多的一次性項目之間的分歧而言，我認為約翰還提到剛剛推出和建立新品牌，顯然需要初步的努力和投資。所以我們不利用它。我們把它作為一項費用放在那裡。最後，我要說的是，我們過去曾討論過這個問題，消費者業務的增長有一個可變因素，特別是因為履行和運輸費用實際上是在銷售中獲得的。因此，隨著業務的持續增長，就消費者活動、訂單數量等而言，這部分將與之成正比，但這就是我要說的。

And then just lastly, if I may, just one quick one on enzymes. Given -- can you characterize -- it sounds as if you have a pretty broad freedom of action in enzymes. And if so, is there a revenue opportunity to license for people who are in kind of more conventional enzyme markets?

然後最後，如果可以的話，只是關於酶的快速介紹。鑑於——你能描述一下嗎——聽起來你在酶中有相當廣泛的行動自由。如果是這樣，是否有機會為更傳統的酶市場中的人們提供許可？

Another great question, Laurence. We don't talk much about our enzyme discovery engine, mainly because we've used it for our own needs, right? We probably have one of the most advanced enzyme discovery machines inside of our platform. We do it for enzymes or to facilitate the development of our pathway for producing our target molecules. And I'll tell you where we are looking at monetization there. It's actually in biopharma.

另一個很好的問題，勞倫斯。我們不怎麼談論我們的酶發現引擎，主要是因為我們已經將它用於我們自己的需要，對吧？我們的平台內可能擁有最先進的酶發現機器之一。我們這樣做是為了酶或促進我們生產目標分子的途徑的發展。我會告訴你我們在哪裡看貨幣化。它實際上是在生物製藥領域。

We see very interesting enzymatic needs in biopharma. And we see that our discovery platform could be very interesting, and we're currently exploring targets, especially, as we think about our relationship with ImmunityBio and some of their needs for both proteins and enzymes and some of the work we could do there as a way to start to really explore that portion of our platform. So the answer is yes, targeted biopharma, and very focused on some specific targets that we're currently exploring.

我們在生物製藥中看到了非常有趣的酶促需求。我們看到我們的發現平台可能非常有趣，我們目前正在探索目標，尤其是當我們考慮我們與 ImmunityBio 的關係以及他們對蛋白質和酶的一些需求以及我們可以在那裡做的一些工作時一種開始真正探索我們平台的那部分的方法。所以答案是肯定的，有針對性的生物製藥，並且非常專注於我們目前正在探索的一些特定目標。

The next question comes from Dan Brennan of Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Dan Brennan。

This is Kyle on for Dan. I'll put these 2 together and then jump back in the queue. So just -- I just wanted to talk about the guidance a little bit and performance in the quarter for consumer revenue. So relative to our expectations, consumer revenue missed by pretty good margin. And I was just wondering if there's anything to point to here in the underlying business that may have been weaker than expected? Or is most of this dominated by supply chain issues?

這是丹的凱爾。我會把這兩個放在一起，然後跳回到隊列中。所以只是 - 我只想談談本季度消費者收入的指導和表現。因此，相對於我們的預期，消費者收入差了相當多的利潤。我只是想知道，在可能比預期弱的基礎業務中，是否有什麼可以指出的？還是其中大部分是由供應鏈問題主導的？

And then my second question, you guided the full year to $330 million to $370 million in total revenue, which is lower than the magnitude of the Q3 miss in a fairly wide range. Is there any detail you can provide on the bridge to the updated guide for -- by consumer revenue, ingredients revenue, grants and collaborations, et cetera?

然後我的第二個問題，你將全年的總收入指導為 3.3 億至 3.7 億美元，這在相當大的範圍內低於第三季度的失誤幅度。您是否可以提供有關更新指南的橋樑的任何詳細信息——消費者收入、成分收入、贈款和合作等？

You bet, Kyle. So I'll take the first part and maybe Han can take the second part on the bridge to the guidance. On the first part, look, I think the most material part of this was the supply chain issues, specifically across all brands componentry. And componentry from China that really started to become a problem through the quarter as the Chinese started to shut power off and limit the operation of many factories in China.

你打賭，凱爾。所以我會參加第一部分，也許 Han 可以在橋上參加指導的第二部分。在第一部分，看，我認為其中最重要的部分是供應鏈問題，特別是所有品牌組件。隨著中國開始斷電並限制中國許多工廠的運營，來自中國的零部件在本季度真正開始成為一個問題。

But I think the other point, Kyle, is the new brands only had a few weeks of selling during the third quarter. So if you wanted to connect 2 dots, those would be it. I can tell you that the weeks that they sold for we generated much more revenue than we expected on a weekly basis. And I can also confirm for you that we're now a month into the fourth quarter, and those brands are performing extremely well, better than we expected.

但我認為另一點，凱爾，新品牌在第三季度只銷售了幾週。所以如果你想連接 2 個點，就是這樣。我可以告訴你，他們銷售的那幾週我們每週產生的收入比我們預期的要多得多。而且我還可以向您確認，我們現在進入第四季度已經一個月了，這些品牌的表現非常好，比我們預期的要好。

And our base is doing very well. I can tell you like just to start off the month of November, Biossance is well over 2x last year's November, right? So if we can maintain that momentum, I think we have a great quarter in the making, and one that I think we've done the prudent thing by getting expectations in the right place for everyone. So maybe that actually takes us to Han in how we connect the dots for the fourth quarter.

我們的基地做得很好。我可以告訴你，從 11 月開始，Biossance 是去年 11 月的 2 倍多，對吧？因此，如果我們能夠保持這種勢頭，我認為我們將迎來一個偉大的季度，而且我認為我們通過讓每個人都在正確的地方獲得期望來做謹慎的事情。所以也許這實際上把我們帶到了 Han 我們如何連接第四季度的各個點。

Yes, really, and certainly, as it relates to consumer, 3 dynamics to think about. John already touched upon it a little bit, but just to put them together. So you have continued sequential growth on the brands, and we've obviously seen that quarter-to-quarter, so that's 1 element. The other one, as John just alluded, is the new brands, the addition we had kind of a week at the back end of Q3, and now we will have a full quarter of these new brands performing. So that's the second brick if you will.

是的，真的，當然，因為它與消費者有關，需要考慮 3 個動態。John 已經略微提到了它，但只是將它們放在一起。所以你在品牌上繼續連續增長，我們顯然已經看到了一個季度到一個季度，所以這是一個要素。另一個，正如約翰剛才提到的，是新品牌，我們在第三季度末增加了一周時間，現在這些新品牌中有整整四分之一的表現。如果你願意的話，那就是第二塊磚。

And then the third piece is really the fact that we have the holiday season, the end of year holiday season ahead of us. And if you look historically at our performance, so last year, when we had 3 brands, and you look at Q3 to Q4, you see a significant uptick because of that level of activity in that holiday season. So again, to repeat, 3 dynamics, sequential growth, ongoing holiday season, and then the new ones that come in. And that gives us confidence that where we've put guidance that Q4 should be able to deliver on getting us into that range.

然後第三點就是我們有假期，年末假期就在我們面前。如果你從歷史上看我們的表現，那麼去年，當我們有 3 個品牌時，你看看第三季度到第四季度，你會看到由於那個假期的活動水平而顯著上升。因此，再次重複，3 個動態，連續增長，持續的假期，然後是新的動態。這讓我們有信心，我們把第四季度的指導放在了應該能夠讓我們進入這個範圍的地方。

And, Kyle, for your -- I think for your benefit and everybody else's out there, here's the way to think about it. Think about consumer in the fourth quarter somewhere in the $50 million to $60 million range. Think about ingredients in the $15 million to $20 million range. And then think about the rest being some of the collaborations that are really pretty consistent quarter-on-quarter.

而且，Kyle，為了你——我認為為了你和其他人的利益，這是思考它的方式。想想第四季度的消費者在 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元的範圍內。想想 1500 萬到 2000 萬美元範圍內的原料。然後想想其餘的是一些真正非常一致的季度合作。

And that kind of gets you to a solid, call it, $70 million to $80 million that's built in, which most inventory is currently on hand for us to deliver on. And again, whether we do more than that really depends on can we get additional stock, and we're working hard on that. But I hope that gives you a sense of magnitude and where the buckets are in the fourth quarter.

這會讓你得到一個堅實的，稱之為內置的 7000 萬到 8000 萬美元，目前大多數庫存都在手頭上供我們交付。再一次，我們是否做得更多實際上取決於我們能否獲得額外的庫存，我們正在為此努力。但我希望這能讓您了解第四季度的規模和水桶的位置。

The next question comes from Tycho Peterson of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的第谷彼得森。

This is Rachel on for Tycho. So sticking with Kyle's theme of consumer brands, diving into the 4 new brands that you guys launched this quarter. You mentioned that they launched later than expected. Can you just give us some more color on what led to that delay? Was that really only supply chain-driven? Or were there any other factors that led to that?

這是第谷的雷切爾。所以堅持 Kyle 的消費品牌主題，深入探討你們本季度推出的 4 個新品牌。你提到他們發布的時間比預期的要晚。你能給我們更多關於導致延遲的原因的顏色嗎？那真的只是供應鏈驅動的嗎？還是有其他因素導致的？

Completely supply chain. As a matter of fact, we ended up not having all the SKUs that we wanted ready to go in the right quantities, and we were not really able to fill all the retail orders we had to be able to get those brands out in stores, right, so -- but purely driven by supply chain and having product ready to go.

完整的供應鏈。事實上，我們最終沒有準備好我們想要的所有 SKU 以正確的數量準備好，而且我們無法真正滿足所有零售訂單，我們必須能夠讓這些品牌進入商店，是的，所以 - 但純粹由供應鏈驅動並準備好產品。

Great. That's helpful. And then on the legacy consumer brands, you got a Biossance and Pipette towards about $200 million next year. So what do you expect those legacy brands to do in 2021, especially given these recent supply chain headwinds? And then can you talk about your confidence in the ramp for those legacy brands through next year?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後在傳統消費品牌上，明年你將獲得約 2 億美元的 Biossance 和 Pipette。那麼，您期望這些傳統品牌在 2021 年做什麼，尤其是考慮到最近的供應鏈逆風？然後你能談談你對明年這些傳統品牌的增長的信心嗎？

Yes. Look, I expect the legacy brands to do somewhere between $125 million range for 2021. And then the second part, Rachel, regarding next year?

是的。看，我預計傳統品牌在 2021 年的銷售額將在 1.25 億美元之間。然後第二部分，Rachel，關於明年？

Yes. Just can you talk about your confidence specifically for those legacy brands ramping from the $125 million this year to $200 million next year?

是的。你能談談你對那些從今年的 1.25 億美元到明年的 2 億美元的傳統品牌的信心嗎？

Yes. With the majority of that growth, if I think about what's driving it is Biossance, and the number we've guided to is actually quite a bit softer than the current growth, right? Biossance right now is growing at a little more than double last year's fourth quarter, if I just look at current performance, right? And we're guiding to something slightly less than that. If you think about the current run rate, to give you a way to connect dots, current run rate for Biossance is about $130 million. And just based on normal trajectory and being a bit softer in how we want to guide, that gets us very comfortably north of $200 million between Biossance, Pipette and Purecane.

是的。對於大部分增長，如果我考慮推動它的是 Biossance，我們指導的數字實際上比當前的增長要軟得多，對吧？Biossance 目前的增長速度是去年第四季度的兩倍多，如果我只看目前的表現，對吧？我們正在引導一些比這略少的東西。如果你考慮當前的運行率，為了給你一個連接點的方法，Biossance 當前的運行率約為 1.3 億美元。並且僅僅基於正常的軌跡並且在我們想要引導的方式上稍微軟一點，這讓我們非常輕鬆地在 Biossance 、 Pipette 和 Purecane 之間超過 2 億美元。

Next question comes from Amit Dayal of H.C. Wainwright.

下一個問題來自 H.C. 的 Amit Dayal。溫賴特。

Maybe this is for Han. What should we think about in terms of the margin outlook for the fourth quarter?

也許這是給韓的。就第四季度的利潤率前景而言，我們應該考慮什麼？

Amit, thanks for joining. I think, look, we've -- if you think about margin profile, it's very similar to what we've been saying, right? So if you just bifurcate between the 2 big pieces, one being consumer and the other one being ingredients, I think we made some comments last quarter about ingredients in a bit more detail that those are economically disadvantaged right now because of not having the Barra Bonita facility. Hence all that emphasis, John explained it, Eduardo emphasized it too that, that is a critical project to us and getting us in a more integrated facility.

阿米特，感謝您的加入。我想，看，我們已經 - 如果你考慮利潤率狀況，它與我們一直在說的非常相似，對吧？因此，如果您只是將兩大塊分成兩部分，一個是消費者，另一個是配料，我想我們上個季度對配料做了一些更詳細的評論，因為沒有 Barra Bonita，這些配料現在在經濟上處於不利地位設施。因此，John 解釋說，Eduardo 也強調了所有這些重點，這對我們來說是一個關鍵項目，讓我們進入一個更加綜合的設施。

On the consumer side, we've always guided 60% to 70% with some of the brands being at the higher end of that range. Certainly, as you know, 50% of our revenue in consumer is from e-commerce, from direct-to-consumer that sits even above the top end of that range. So we've seen that. We've continued to see it every quarter. So that hasn't changed from a guidance perspective. And we even see that now with the new brands coming in. So if you think about profile, that's the way to kind of model it out.

在消費者方面，我們始終引導 60% 到 70%，其中一些品牌處於該範圍的高端。當然，如您所知，我們 50% 的消費者收入來自電子商務，直接面向消費者的收入甚至高於該範圍的頂端。所以我們已經看到了。我們每個季度都繼續看到它。所以從指導的角度來看，這並沒有改變。隨著新品牌的加入，我們甚至看到了這一點。因此，如果您考慮配置文件，那就是對它進行建模的方法。

Got it. And then for next year, the $500 million guidance, roughly for the revenue side. Is that just based on your potential estimates? Or are there any contracts, et cetera, underlying that number that support that view?

知道了。然後是明年的 5 億美元指導，大致用於收入方面。這只是基於您的潛在估計嗎？或者是否有任何合同等支持該觀點的數字？

Amit, for all the -- so on the ingredient side, that's predominantly all contracted, and that is all based on existing ingredients and current growth rate to our existing channels. On the collaborations and the earn-out, that's also predominantly contracted. And then on the brand side, the existing brands, obviously, that's all based on all the current doors that we have contracted. The brands we launched this year is also based on current doors that are contracted. And the brands that we are launching in the year, I can tell you already several of those brands are already under contract with retailers that we're launching into. So maybe the best way to think about it is about 70% to 80% of that revenue for next year already has spoken for agreements and channels to be able to sell into.

阿米特，對於所有——所以在成分方面，這主要是所有合同，這都是基於現有成分和我們現有渠道的當前增長率。在合作和賺錢方面，這也主要是簽約的。然後在品牌方面，現有品牌，顯然，這都是基於我們目前簽約的所有門。我們今年推出的品牌也是以現在簽約的門為主。而我們今年推出的品牌，我可以告訴你，其中幾個品牌已經與我們正在推出的零售商簽訂了合同。因此，最好的思考方式可能是明年收入的 70% 到 80% 已經談到了能夠銷售的協議和渠道。

The next question comes from Craig Irwin of ROTH Capital Partners.

下一個問題來自 ROTH Capital Partners 的 Craig Irwin。

So John, help understand the global supply chain problem, it's a headache. And I think it's the cost of doing business right now. The $50 million adjustment to your guidance, I'm going to guess that a large chunk of that really is consumer given the mix shift you guys have been driving. And can you maybe talk us through the opportunity to use increased airfreight?

所以約翰，幫助理解全球供應鏈問題，這是一個令人頭疼的問題。我認為這是現在做生意的成本。對你的指導進行 5000 萬美元的調整，考慮到你們一直在推動的混合轉變，我猜測其中很大一部分確實是消費者。你能不能通過增加空運的機會告訴我們？

Incremental sales of $50 million would mean sort of a chunky potential for upside into the back end of the year. I know you'll probably give up 20 points of margin on those sales, but it fertilizes new customers for growth in '22 and beyond. Can you talk us through the logistics of whether or not this is doable or feasible to allow Amyris to execute on that for the holiday season?

5000 萬美元的增量銷售額意味著到今年年底有很大的上漲潛力。我知道你可能會放棄這些銷售額的 20 個百分點的利潤，但它會為 22 世紀及以後的增長培養新客戶。你能否通過後勤工作告訴我們，這是否可行或可行，讓 Amyris 在假期執行？

Craig, I really appreciate the question, and you can only imagine all of our frustration, right? This has not been a fun quarter, especially after a pretty good run for us. And we have and our -- and Eduardo's team has scoped out price and has a few 747s that we're looking at being able to lease, to be able to do some movement, especially in and out of China. And the cost is pretty extreme. It's actually a little more than the 20 points that you're referring to.

克雷格，我真的很欣賞這個問題，你只能想像我們所有的沮喪，對吧？這不是一個有趣的季度，尤其是在我們表現不錯之後。我們和我們的 - Eduardo 的團隊已經確定了價格，並且有幾架 747，我們正在考慮能夠租賃，能夠進行一些移動，特別是進出中國。而且成本非常高。它實際上比你所指的 20 點多一點。

And the other thing to highlight, the mix of impact is actually on a revenue basis, especially as we go into the fourth quarter, pretty even between ingredients and consumer. So we're looking at that. We may need to use that if we have further limitations that we believe put at risk some of the upside. And our rationale in moving down the guidance is to really focus on everything we have in hand and in control right now.

另一件需要強調的事情是，影響的組合實際上是基於收入的，尤其是當我們進入第四季度時，成分和消費者之間的影響相當均勻。所以我們正在研究。如果我們有進一步的限制，我們認為這些限制會危及一些上行空間，我們可能需要使用它。我們降低指南的理由是真正關注我們現在手頭和控制的一切。

So we know where we can end the quarter solidly. We are, again, exploring those options for what can we add and really doing cost benefit trade-offs. And to your point, one of my big drivers with the team is, I'm not willing to sacrifice any demand in how we're managing, making those decisions going into the rest of the quarter. So I hope that helps. I don't know if Eduardo wants to add anything on that.

所以我們知道我們可以在哪裡穩定地結束這個季度。我們再次探索這些選項以了解我們可以添加什麼，並真正進行成本效益權衡。就你的觀點而言，我與團隊的主要推動力之一是，我不願意犧牲我們管理方式的任何需求，在本季度剩餘時間做出這些決定。所以我希望能有所幫助。我不知道 Eduardo 是否想對此添加任何內容。

Yes. The only other thing I would say, John, is we -- Craig, we did actually derisk the components aside from the examples that John used around the caps and the bottles for Pipette that he mentioned. All the rest of the components are in very good shape. I think where we are considering this expedited air shipment has been in some raw materials, and that's where we're looking at those options. But I think just to reemphasize, the numbers, that guidance that John shared already are underpinned by products that are already produced and on the distribution center. So anything else we do would be just to kind of derisk 2022 and making sure that we can capture additional upside.

是的。約翰，我唯一要說的是我們 - 克雷格，除了約翰在他提到的移液器的蓋子和瓶子周圍使用的例子之外，我們實際上確實對組件進行了風險評估。所有其他組件都處於非常好的狀態。我認為我們正在考慮這種加速空運的地方是一些原材料，這就是我們正在考慮這些選擇的地方。但我想再次強調，約翰分享的這些數字和指導已經得到了已經生產和配送中心的產品的支持。因此，我們所做的任何其他事情都只是為了降低 2022 年的風險，並確保我們能夠獲得額外的上漲空間。

Understood. Then just to follow up on a question that I guess the associate from Cowen asked. John, when you responded to the mix question about ingredients, consumer, other, you kind of walked us into a range of about $10 million. You said roughly $70 million to $80 million. But the delta on your guidance between the low and the high is a little bit wider than that, it's $40 million. So in a circumstance like this, usually, I understand a Board is looking at a range of scenarios, and they really want to give guidance that's responsible.

明白了。然後只是跟進一個問題，我想是 Cowen 的同事問的。約翰，當你回答關於成分、消費者和其他的混合問題時，你讓我們進入了大約 1000 萬美元的範圍。你說大約 7000 萬到 8000 萬美元。但是你指導下的低點和高點之間的差值比這要寬一點，是 4000 萬美元。因此，在這種情況下，通常，我了解到董事會正在研究一系列場景，他們真的很想提供負責任的指導。

But can you maybe give us a little bit of color? Do we need this increased use of airfreight to hit the top of the guidance? Could it possibly carry us over the top of the guidance? And what would have to go wrong or what would have to be problematic to reach the low end of guidance?

但是你能給我們一點顏色嗎？我們是否需要增加對空運的使用才能達到指導的最高水平？它有可能讓我們超越指南嗎？為了達到指導的低端，會出現什麼問題或有什麼問題？

Great question. So let's play with -- call it like that last $10 million to the top end of guidance, the 60 to 70 range -- $360 million to $370 million range. And the $360 million to $370 million range is really in the reach of what Eduardo just said, of us having the stock that we need. What would have to happen for us to go above that, above the $360 million to $370 million, is really either cargoes getting unloaded on time at the U.S. ports. That's number one. And if not cargo is getting unloaded on time, us deploying the use of a leased 747 to move goods between China and the U.S.

很好的問題。因此，讓我們一起玩——把它稱為最後 1000 萬美元到指導的最高端，即 60 到 70 的範圍——3.6 億美元到 3.7 億美元的範圍。3.6 億美元到 3.7 億美元的範圍確實在愛德華多剛才所說的範圍內，我們擁有我們需要的股票。如果我們要超過 3.6 億至 3.7 億美元，我們必須要做到的是貨物在美國港口準時卸貨。這是第一。如果貨物不能按時卸下，我們將使用租用的 747 飛機在中美之間運輸貨物。

Those are really the 2 things that we could pull and we do have access to. Obviously, the leased plane to be able to go above that $370 million mark. And again, whether ports start getting uncongested or not, is to be seen, right? But we're watching that very carefully. So I hope that helps. It's $360 million, $370 million is what we have in-house to underpin. And then hopefully, we can bring something in above that. But I wanted to be prudent and make sure we're covered all the way through going into the fourth quarter.

這些確實是我們可以拉動並且我們確實可以訪問的兩件事。顯然，租賃的飛機能夠突破 3.7 億美元大關。再一次，端口是否開始變得不擁塞，還有待觀察，對吧？但我們正在非常仔細地觀察。所以我希望能有所幫助。它是 3.6 億美元，3.7 億美元是我們內部可以支持的。然後希望我們能帶來一些高於此的東西。但我想謹慎行事，確保我們在進入第四季度的所有過程中都得到保障。

We have time for 1 more question. And that is Graham Tanaka of Tanaka Capital Management.

我們還有時間再問 1 個問題。那就是田中資本管理公司的格雷厄姆田中。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we can.

我們可以。

We can, Graham.

我們可以，格雷厄姆。

I'll try to make this quick. I -- a lot of the subjects we've already covered. I do think there are -- there's a need to try to understand a little bit more about the ImmunityBio joint venture, a 50-50 relationship. And I'm wondering, if you could just start with if the clinical trials do prove to be positive, what are your expectations on the performance of the second-generation COVID vaccine versus what's out there now in terms of efficacy, safety, durability of response, duration of response, et cetera, and as well as commenting on price for a shot or vaccine?

我會盡快完成的。我——我們已經涵蓋了很多主題。我確實認為有——有必要嘗試更多地了解 ImmunityBio 合資企業，這是一種 50-50 的關係。我想知道，如果臨床試驗確實證明是積極的，您是否可以從第二代 COVID 疫苗的性能與目前在有效性、安全性和耐久性方面的表現相比，您有何期望？響應、響應持續時間等等，以及對注射或疫苗價格的評論？

Yes, Graham. So a couple of things. First of all, I'm planning on -- we haven't defined a date yet, but I am planning on, Patrick and I, doing a live session with investors online, I say, live, a Zoom session with investors to be able to answer questions jointly. And we'll work on getting a date and place for that. I think that would be helpful for everyone, especially around the questions.

是的，格雷厄姆。所以有幾件事。首先，我計劃 - 我們還沒有確定日期，但我計劃，帕特里克和我，在網上與投資者進行現場會議，我說，現場，與投資者的 Zoom 會議能夠共同回答問題。我們將努力確定日期和地點。我認為這對每個人都有幫助，尤其是圍繞問題。

Regarding some of your questions about the vaccine, here's how we look at it. And this is all based on data we have now and some initially peer-reviewed results that we have from some of the early and current testing that we're seeing, okay? So think about it as 96% efficacy, 96% efficacy single shot. And then as far as the data we have, 1-year efficacy without need for a booster shot. Whether it goes beyond a year or not is just we don't have enough data to be able to say. My guess is we'll see how that goes.

關於您關於疫苗的一些問題，以下是我們的看法。這一切都是基於我們現在擁有的數據以及我們從我們看到的一些早期和當前測試中獲得的一些初步同行評審結果，好嗎？所以把它想像成 96% 的功效，96% 的功效單次注射。然後就我們擁有的數據而言，無需加強注射即可獲得 1 年的療效。是否超過一年只是我們沒有足夠的數據可以說。我的猜測是我們將看看情況如何。

The way we're thinking about pricing is somewhere around $7 based on where we are for cost of goods. The way to think about this is -- so by the way, that $7, I think, is below -- the $7 pricing of our vaccine is below the cost of goods that we've seen out there for Pfizer and others. So that's really what we're thinking about. And based on our cost of goods, we think 1 billion doses at that level contributes several hundreds of millions of dollars to us in financial contribution for the JV in 2022, assuming, again, we launch and get the 1 billion doses out there and produce.

根據我們對商品成本的看法，我們考慮定價的方式約為 7 美元。思考這個問題的方式是——順便說一下，我認為 7 美元低於——我們疫苗的 7 美元定價低於我們在輝瑞和其他公司看到的商品成本。所以這真的是我們正在考慮的問題。根據我們的商品成本，我們認為該水平的 10 億劑疫苗將為我們在 2022 年為合資企業貢獻數億美元，假設我們再次推出並獲得 10 億劑疫苗並生產.

So it's giving us a lot of excitement about what's possible. And our focus is just manning the JV, making sure it's got the right resources and letting it execute and making sure it has the space, especially with Patrick's technical capability and his teams to really get this to market fast.

所以它讓我們對可能發生的事情感到非常興奮。我們的重點只是為合資企業配備人員，確保它擁有合適的資源並讓它執行並確保它有空間，尤其是帕特里克的技術能力和他的團隊才能真正快速地將其推向市場。

Yes. And your target market, I guess, they're 1.34 -- 1.38 billion of population in Africa. Is this intended to be approved -- applied for and approved and distributed in all of Africa or where -- what markets would you plan to ship the 1 billion doses?

是的。我猜你的目標市場是非洲的 1.34 - 13.8 億人口。這是否打算在整個非洲或哪裡獲得批准——申請、批准和分發——你計劃向哪些市場運送這 10 億劑疫苗？

Well, I can tell you right now, obviously, we're very focused on South Africa, just where the trial is. We are in active discussions in Brazil to ensure that the Brazilians have access to this technology. We're active in discussions in Portugal as an entry point to the EU. And as you can imagine, we're active in discussions with the U.S. government. For anybody to think that any government in the world right now is sleeping well, believing that COVID is under control, you got to be kidding yourself.

好吧，我現在可以告訴你，很明顯，我們非常關注南非，那裡就是審判的所在地。我們正在巴西積極討論，以確保巴西人能夠獲得這項技術。作為加入歐盟的切入點，我們積極參與在葡萄牙的討論。正如您所想像的，我們正在積極與美國政府進行討論。如果有人認為世界上任何政府現在都睡得很好，相信 COVID 已得到控制，那你一定是在自欺欺人。

There is a fourth wave starting. We have no idea where this goes, but frankly, everybody just wants security of health for their population, and they're looking for a technology that can do that in a cost-effective way without a lot of complexity in the supply chain. Everything we've seen at the data from our vaccine, and the conversation we've had with multiple governments, give us confidence that if we can get right results, we can get this thing out scaled and create a lot of value for us and our shareholders.

第四波開始了。我們不知道這會發生什麼，但坦率地說，每個人都只希望他們的人口有健康保障，他們正在尋找一種能夠以具有成本效益的方式做到這一點而又不會在供應鏈中增加太多複雜性的技術。我們從疫苗數據中看到的一切，以及我們與多個政府的對話，都讓我們相信，如果我們能得到正確的結果，我們就能擴大規模，為我們創造很多價值，我們的股東。

Yes. I just want to confirm on cost, you had said earlier based on the use of the squalane adjuvant that it would help reduce cost by boosting the performance of the active ingredient for the vaccine. How much lower could you -- how much could your cost be? For example, Pfizer reported in the last quarter that they had a high 20% pretax margin on what they shipped in the third quarter. I'm just wondering if you would be in that range or higher.

是的。我只想確認一下成本，您之前曾說過，基於角鯊烷佐劑的使用，它可以通過提高疫苗活性成分的性能來幫助降低成本。你能低多少——你的成本是多少？例如，輝瑞公司在上個季度報告說，他們在第三季度出貨的產品的稅前利潤率高達 20%。我只是想知道你是否會在那個範圍內或更高。

I expect it to be higher. I mean I mentioned that our selling price will be somewhere around the $7 range. You can imagine that our cost of goods based on all the modeling and experience we have to date would say that we're looking at a cost of goods south of $2 a unit.

我預計它會更高。我的意思是我提到我們的售價將在 7 美元左右。您可以想像，根據我們迄今擁有的所有建模和經驗，我們的商品成本會說我們正在尋找低於每件 2 美元的商品成本。

Okay. And you might have different distribution costs that might be higher than Pfizer, of course. So what would be the timing of -- for example, if you can give us a little more guidance in terms of data points on your Phase I -- I think it's a Phase I/II/III trial. So that already is a little different. If you could discuss when the data might be released? When you might be applying for approval in South Africa? How could you get accelerated approval in other countries? And is this something that's a second half next year phenomenon, first half, first quarter? Could you give us a little guidance on timing?

好的。當然，您的分銷成本可能會高于輝瑞。那麼時間安排是什麼——例如，如果你能在第一階段的數據點方面給我們更多的指導——我認為這是第一階段/第二階段/第三階段的試驗。所以這已經有點不同了。您是否可以討論何時可以發布數據？您什麼時候可以在南非申請批准？您如何在其他國家/地區獲得加速批准？這是明年下半年、上半年、第一季度的現象嗎？你能給我們一些關於時間的指導嗎？

Sure, Graham. Look, I'll just give you a couple of data points, right? From a results that we're comfortable speaking publicly about, I would say first quarter. We are parallel tracking the approval in South Africa. We're working very closely. When I say we, Patrick, specifically, and ImmunityBio with the South African government, so we expect that to be a fast track. And we are in discussions with the Brazilians to be able to take the data from South Africa and accelerate pretty quickly. So I would say production and approvals first half are real impact to the P&L second half of the year.

當然，格雷厄姆。看，我會給你幾個數據點，對吧？從我們公開談論的結果來看，我會說第一季度。我們正在平行跟踪南非的批准情況。我們正在密切合作。當我說我們，帕特里克，特別是 ImmunityBio 與南非政府時，我們希望這是一條快速通道。我們正在與巴西人討論，以便能夠從南非獲取數據并快速加速。所以我想說上半年的生產和批准對下半年的損益表有真正的影響。

Okay. And just to confirm, there's been some discussion of the fact that, I guess, it avoids the cold chain issue. In other words, it does not have to be frozen. Is that correct? And I'm just wondering if that would -- how much that might help the process?

好的。只是為了確認，有一些關於這個事實的討論，我猜，它避免了冷鏈問題。換句話說，它不必冷凍。那是對的嗎？我只是想知道這是否會——對流程有多大幫助？

Yes. No, based on our current production process, it's actually freeze-dried, and therefore, can be in the market for 1 year at room temperature, not any controlled temperature environment.

是的。不，根據我們目前的生產工藝，它實際上是冷凍乾燥的，因此，可以在室溫下在市場上存放 1 年，而不是任何受控溫度環境。

Well, that's fabulous. Okay. I just -- getting back to some of the issues that were brought up earlier, if I could just ask 1 more question on what were your -- when this year is all said and done, and we're looking at next year to model for next year, what would this year's start-up cost be in terms of impact of starting up new brands and investing in a new plant, which I understand you actually write off a lot of what might normally be capitalized on the Barra Bonita plant? So if you could just estimate for us what the startup costs would be this year that would be absent next year?

好吧，那太棒了。好的。我只是 - 回到之前提出的一些問題，如果我可以再問一個問題關於你 - 當今年都說完了，我們正在考慮明年進行建模時明年，就啟動新品牌和投資新工廠的影響而言，今年的啟動成本是多少，據我所知，你實際上註銷了很多通常可以在 Barra Bonita 工廠資本化的成本？那麼，如果您能為我們估算一下明年將沒有的啟動成本是多少？

And then what the lost revenues might be this year with your guidance type scenario for the fourth quarter? What kind of -- how much lower would total revenues be? Is it that $40 million to $50 million that -- or I guess, a $30 million to $70 million, is that pretty much all the shortfall from the supply chain problems or there other issues?

然後，根據您第四季度的指導類型情景，今年的收入損失可能是多少？什麼樣的 - 總收入會低多少？是 4000 萬到 5000 萬美元——或者我猜是 3000 萬到 7000 萬美元，這幾乎是供應鏈問題或其他問題造成的全部短缺嗎？

Yes, Graham. And I think as we said earlier, there were 2 drivers. The main one is supply chain, but we also did not get as much selling time in the third quarter from the new brands as we would have liked, right? So we had a few weeks versus what we were hoping to be about 6 weeks or so of selling time. So that is an impact. And I think one of the other folks in the call, I think, helped clarify that at the end of the day, we're hoping for much more like a $30 million to $40 million impact in total between third and fourth quarter than the total $70 million that we guided. But we wanted to give ourselves lots of cushion and ensure that we didn't have a problem with delivering on what we say, right? So especially with how unpredictable the supply chain is at this point in time.

是的，格雷厄姆。我認為正如我們之前所說，有 2 個驅動程序。主要是供應鏈，但我們在第三季度也沒有從新品牌那裡獲得我們希望的那麼多銷售時間，對吧？因此，我們有幾週的銷售時間，而我們希望的銷售時間約為 6 週左右。所以這是一種影響。而且我認為電話中的其他人之一幫助澄清了這一點，最終我們希望第三季度和第四季度之間的總影響超過 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元，而不是總計我們指導的 7000 萬美元。但我們想給自己很多緩衝，並確保我們在兌現我們所說的方面沒有問題，對嗎？因此，尤其是在此時供應鏈的不可預測性。

I think the way our model is working is actually a little bit better than our -- a lot better than our expectation. We expected new brands to deliver about $10 million a year in their first 12 months. The reality is the new brands we're launching now are starting to really track towards $20 million, first year revenue, so double what we expected. And the costs are actually really in check. So think about it as $5 million to $7 million in investment to development a new brand, $20 million to $30 million in total to make it profitable.

我認為我們模型的工作方式實際上比我們的好一點——比我們的預期好很多。我們預計新品牌在頭 12 個月內每年交付約 1000 萬美元。事實上，我們現在推出的新品牌開始真正實現 2000 萬美元的第一年收入，是我們預期的兩倍。而且成本實際上確實在控制之中。因此，將其視為開發新品牌的 500 萬至 700 萬美元投資，總計 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元以使其盈利。

And our current track record is $1 billion valuation for a brand in 3 to 4 years versus 5 -- or 4 to 5 years as we did with Biossance. Right now Biossance exceeds $1 billion valuation in the public domain, basically looking at folks who buy brands like that. I think we have Pipette well on its way to that. So that's 2 $1 billion brands. And now with Rose Inc's., and JVN's performance, we definitely see them in that same path, but getting there much faster. So lower investment than expected to get to profitability, and then obviously a faster path to $1 billion in valuation based on our current performance for consumer.

我們目前的記錄是一個品牌在 3 到 4 年內的估值為 10 億美元，而我們對 Biossance 所做的是 5 年或 4 到 5 年。現在 Biossance 在公共領域的估值超過 10 億美元，基本上是在尋找購買此類品牌的人。我認為 Pipette 正在朝著這個方向發展。所以這是 2 個價值 10 億美元的品牌。現在，憑藉 Rose Inc. 和 JVN 的表現，我們肯定會看到他們走在同樣的道路上，但到達那裡的速度要快得多。如此低的投資就能實現盈利，然後根據我們目前在消費者領域的表現，顯然可以更快地實現 10 億美元的估值。

And with that, let me move to closing comments. Otherwise, I have my colleagues and everybody else listening would probably going to take my head off. So let me go there now. Look, I just want to thank everybody for being on the call. I want to thank everybody for their patience with us. The headwinds around supply chain are super frustrating. At the same time, I can tell you, I've never been more excited and confident about our underlying business. Demand is much stronger than we can deliver on. We're focused very much on not destroying demand, keeping consumers engaged and making sure we stay in touch with them.

然後，讓我開始結束評論。否則，我有我的同事和其他人在聽，可能會讓我大吃一驚。所以讓我現在去那裡。聽著，我只想感謝大家接聽電話。我要感謝大家對我們的耐心等待。圍繞供應鏈的逆風非常令人沮喪。同時，我可以告訴你，我對我們的基礎業務從未像現在這樣興奮和自信。需求比我們能夠提供的要強大得多。我們非常注重不破壞需求、保持消費者參與並確保我們與他們保持聯繫。

And on the B2B side, we're moving a lot of inventory from partners and warehouses to ensure that no factory goes without being able to produce end products. And that's something that's really giving us a lot of credibility with our partners on the B2B side, on the ingredient supply side. I can tell you from our partners, whether it's Givaudan, Firmenich or DSM, every one of them is having issues having to slow down or stop factories because they can't get raw materials.

在 B2B 方面，我們正在從合作夥伴和倉庫轉移大量庫存，以確保沒有工廠無法生產最終產品。這確實讓我們在 B2B 方面和原料供應方面的合作夥伴中獲得了很大的信譽。我可以從我們的合作夥伴那裡告訴你，無論是奇華頓、芬美意還是帝斯曼，他們每個人都面臨著因為無法獲得原材料而不得不放慢或關閉工廠的問題。

And we've been very fortunate to keep delivering the raw materials, even if it means moving inventory around. It does affect, obviously, our revenue because we don't give credit for taking inventory from a distributor to an end customer, but we see this as temporary. No question in my mind as we get to the fourth quarter, we'll have a much more resilient supply chain, and we'll get beyond this and keep our growth momentum.

我們很幸運能夠繼續提供原材料，即使這意味著轉移庫存。顯然，它確實會影響我們的收入，因為我們不會將庫存從分銷商轉移到最終客戶，但我們認為這是暫時的。毫無疑問，當我們進入第四季度時，我們將擁有一個更具彈性的供應鏈，我們將超越這一點並保持我們的增長勢頭。

And I think my last point is I couldn't be more excited about having the underpinning to $500 million or more in revenue for next year without any onetime deals and seeing the amazing performance of our underlying business.

我想我的最後一點是，我對明年在沒有任何一次性交易的情況下獲得 5 億美元或更多收入的基礎以及看到我們基礎業務的驚人表現感到非常興奮。

With that, I'd like to thank everybody. I hope everybody has a good afternoon. Operator?

說到這裡，我要感謝大家。我希望大家下午好。操作員？

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. And you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。你現在可以斷開連接了。