Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources fourth quarter 2024 results conference call. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Emily O'Quinn, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. You may now begin.

大家好，歡迎參加 Alpha Metallurgical Resources 2024 年第四季業績電話會議。（操作員指令）。請注意，本次會議正在錄音。現在，我將會議交給主持人、投資者關係和傳播部高級副總裁 Emily O'Quinn。現在您就可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Before we get started, let me remind you that during our prepared remarks, our comments regarding anticipated business and financial performance contain forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially from those discussed.

謝謝你，羅布，大家早安。在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒您，在我們準備好的評論中，我們對預期業務和財務業績的評論包含前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能與討論的結果有重大差異。

For more information regarding forward-looking statements and some of the factors that can affect them, please refer to the company's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings release and the associated SEC filings. Please also see those documents for information about our use of non-GAAP measures and their reconciliation to GAAP measures.

有關前瞻性陳述以及可能影響它們的一些因素的更多信息，請參閱該公司 2024 年第四季度和全年收益報告以及相關的 SEC 文件。另請參閱這些文件以獲取有關我們使用非 GAAP 指標及其與 GAAP 指標的協調的資訊。

Participating on the call today are Alpha's Chief Executive Officer, Andy Eidson, and our President and Chief Operating Officer, Jason Whitehead. Also participating on the call are Todd Munsey, our Chief Financial Officer and Dan Horn, our Chief Commercial Officer.

今天參加電話會議的有 Alpha 的執行長 Andy Eidson 和我們的總裁兼營運長 Jason Whitehead。參加電話會議的還有我們的財務長 Todd Munsey 和首席商務長 Dan Horn。

With that, I will turn the call over to Andy.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給安迪。

Thanks, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024, which include adjusted EBITDA of $53 million and 4.1 million tons shipped in the quarter. And despite the deteriorating coal market conditions, our teams completed another year of safe production with record-setting safety metrics.

謝謝，艾米麗，大家早安。今天，我們公佈了 2024 年第四季和全年的財務業績，其中包括調整後的 EBITDA 為 5,300 萬美元，本季出貨量為 410 萬噸。儘管煤炭市場狀況不斷惡化，我們的團隊仍然完成了另一年的安全生產任務，安全指標創下了歷史新高。

As we've discussed in prior calls, the metallurgical coal market conditions have been negatively impacted by weak global steel demand and these conditions persist. Our operations, like all others in Central Appalachia, have also experienced significant challenges because of extreme weather this winter, which will have substantial implications for our quarterly performance for the first and perhaps second quarters. Jason will be sharing details on those impacts later.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，冶金煤市場狀況受到全球鋼鐵需求疲軟的負面影響，而且這種狀況持續存在。與中阿巴拉契亞地區的所有其他公司一樣，我們的業務也因今年冬季的極端天氣而面臨重大挑戰，這將對我們第一季甚至第二季的業績產生重大影響。傑森稍後將分享有關這些影響的詳細資訊。

These issues caused us to increase the top end of our cost of coal sales guidance for the year and to bring down our annual metallurgical shipment volume guidance by 500,000 tons. This 0.5 million ton figure roughly aligns with the amount we expect to have missed in the first quarter due to the confluence of lost shifts from absenteeism, power outages, snow and flooding impacts and transportation delays.

這些問題導致我們提高了今年煤炭銷售成本指導上限，並將年度冶金出貨量指導下調了50萬噸。這個 50 萬噸的數字與我們預計第一季因缺勤、停電、雪災和洪水影響以及運輸延誤等因素造成的班次損失的數量大致相符。

Beyond these direct impacts on our ability to move coal, other producers who we purchase coal from have experienced the same issues. So we've not been able to buy as much coal as expected in the first quarter. All of this, coupled with the continued weakness in the metallurgical coal markets means we expect the rest of the quarter to be difficult.

除了對我們運輸煤炭能力的直接影響之外，我們從其購買煤炭的其他生產商也遇到了同樣的問題。因此，我們在第一季未能像預期那樣購買煤炭數量。所有這些，再加上冶金煤市場的持續疲軟，意味著我們預計本季剩餘時間將會很困難。

The good news is that a year ago, we anticipated market weakness, and we took action to prepare our business and our balance sheet. The weather impacts have been an unwelcomed surprise, but we've managed through that, and our teams have worked hard to protect the safety of our people and our operations. Diversity isn't a stranger to this company or this industry and it makes me proud to see the way the team has responded to these circumstances.

好消息是，一年前，我們預見了市場疲軟，並採取行動做好了業務和資產負債表的準備。天氣影響是一個不受歡迎的意外，但我們已經克服了它，我們的團隊也盡心盡力保護我們員工和業務的安全。多元化對這家公司或這個行業來說並不陌生，看到團隊對這些情況的反應方式讓我感到自豪。

During market conditions like these, it's not unusual to hear about tonnage coming offline due to uneconomic cost profiles and a few very small operators have even made recent bankruptcy announcements.

在這樣的市場條件下，由於成本狀況不經濟，大量運力下線的消息屢見不鮮，一些規模非常小的運營商甚至最近宣布破產。

Volatility in our industry is a constant and its effects are often intensified in down markets. However, conditions like these can sometimes present opportunities for well-capitalized companies to consider bolting on a mine, reserve base or other kind of property.

我們產業的波動性始終存在，而且其影響往往在市場低迷時會加劇。然而，這樣的條件有時會為資本雄厚的公司提供機會，考慮收購礦場、儲備基地或其他類型的財產。

When it comes to M&A, our approach is to have an open door policy, meaning we believe it's important to evaluate the landscape for any potential transactions that could strengthen Alpha for the long term.

在併購方面，我們採取開放政策，這意味著我們認為評估任何可能長期增強 Alpha 實力的潛在交易的前景非常重要。

We don't have any announcements to make today, but we continue to keep our eyes open for opportunities to fortify the financial and operational health of this already strong organization.

我們今天沒有任何要宣布的消息，但我們將繼續留意機會來鞏固這個已經很強大的組織的財務和營運健康。

Despite the rough market environment and uncertainty around tariffs that are getting most of the headlines, we understand that market analyst projections for global steel demand remains strong with met coal supply expected to stay constrained over the long term.

儘管市場環境嚴峻、關稅不確定性佔據了大部分頭條新聞，但我們了解到，市場分析師對全球鋼鐵需求的預測仍然強勁，而冶金煤供應預計將長期受到限制。

So with that, I will turn the call over to Todd for additional information about our quarterly financial results.

因此，我將把電話轉給托德，以獲取有關我們季度財務業績的更多資訊。

Thanks, Andy. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $53 million, up from $49 million in Q3. And -- we sold 4.1 million tons in Q4, which is the same amount sold in the third quarter. Met segment realizations decreased quarter-over-quarter with an average fourth quarter realization of $127.84 and -- compared to $132.76 for the third quarter. Export met tons priced against Atlantic indices and other pricing mechanisms in the fourth quarter realized $122.24 per ton, while export coal priced on Australian indices realized $124.71. These results are compared to realizations of $129.31 per ton and $128.61, respectively, in the third quarter.

謝謝，安迪。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 5,300 萬美元，高於第三季的 4,900 萬美元。而且——我們第四季的銷售量為 410 萬噸，與第三季的銷售量相同。大都會部門實現利潤環比下降，第四季平均實現利潤為 127.84 美元，而第三季為 132.76 美元。第四季以大西洋指數和其他定價機制定價的出口金屬噸價格為每噸 122.24 美元，而以澳洲指數定價的出口煤炭價格為每噸 124.71 美元。該結果與第三季的每噸 129.31 美元和 128.61 美元的實現價格相比有所下降。

The fourth quarter realization for our metallurgical sales was a total weighted average of $132.63 per ton, down from $136.35 per ton in Q3. Realizations in the incidental thermal portion of the Met segment decreased to $75.39 per ton in Q4 as compared to $76.33 per ton in the third quarter.

我們第四季的冶金銷售總加權平均價格為每噸 132.63 美元，低於第三季的每噸 136.35 美元。第四季度，冶金部門附帶熱能部分的實現成本下降至每噸 75.39 美元，第三季為每噸 76.33 美元。

Cost of coal sales for our Met segment decreased to $108.82 per ton in the fourth quarter, down from $114.72 per ton in Q3. SG&A, excluding noncash stock compensation and nonrecurring items increased to $14.3 million in the fourth quarter as compared to $13.4 million in Q3. CapEx for the quarter was $42.7 million, up from $31.5 million in Q3.

我們冶金部門的煤炭銷售成本從第三季的每噸 114.72 美元下降至第四季的每噸 108.82 美元。第四季銷售、一般及行政費用（不包括非現金股票薪資和非經常性項目）從第三季的 1,340 萬美元增加至 1,430 萬美元。本季資本支出為 4,270 萬美元，高於第三季的 3,150 萬美元。

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. As of December 31, 2024, we had $481.6 million in unrestricted cash compared to $484.6 million of unrestricted cash as of September 30. We had $112.9 million in unused availability under our ABL at the end of the fourth quarter, partially offset by a minimum required liquidity of $75 million.

轉向資產負債表和現金流量。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 4.816 億美元的非限制現金，而截至 9 月 30 日的非限制現金為 4.846 億美元。截至第四季末，我們的 ABL 項下未使用的可用資金為 1.129 億美元，部分被 7,500 萬美元的最低流動資金要求所抵銷。

As of the end of December, Alpha had total liquidity of $519.4 million, up from $507 million at the end of the third quarter. Cash provided by operating activities was $56.3 million in the fourth quarter, down from $189.5 million in Q3. As a reminder, the third quarter cash flows were positively impacted by a decrease in working capital of $144.5 million.

截至 12 月底，Alpha 的總流動資金為 5.194 億美元，高於第三季末的 5.07 億美元。第四季經營活動提供的現金為 5,630 萬美元，低於第三季的 1.895 億美元。提醒一下，第三季的現金流受到 1.445 億美元營運資本減少的正面影響。

As of December 31, our ABL facility had no borrowings and $42.1 million of letters of credit outstanding, a reduction of $15 million in letters of credit outstanding as compared to the end of the third quarter.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的 ABL 設施沒有借款，未償還信用證為 4,210 萬美元，與第三季末相比，未償還信用證減少了 1,500 萬美元。

We reduced our metallurgical shipment guidance for the year by 500,000 tons, bringing the range to 14.5 million to 15.5 million tons. This is largely due to the impact we're already seeing in the first quarter of the severe weather impacts on our own production levels as well as the production of our peers, which we expect will lower the volumes of coal we purchased in 2025.

我們將全年冶金礦產出貨量目標下調50萬噸，至1,450萬至1,550萬噸。這主要是由於我們在第一季已經看到惡劣天氣對我們自己以及同行的生產水平的影響，我們預計這將降低我們在 2025 年購買的煤炭量。

Together with that change, we increased the high end of our Met cost of coal sales guidance for the year, widening the range to $103 per ton to $110 per ton up from the prior range of $103 to $108.

結合這項變化，我們提高了今年大都會煤炭銷售成本預期的高端，將範圍從之前的每噸 103 美元到 108 美元擴大到每噸 103 美元到 110 美元。

In terms of our committed position for 2025, at the midpoint of guidance, 32% of our metallurgical tonnage in the Met segment is committed and priced at an average price of $143.81. Another 56% of our Met tonnage for the year is committed, but not yet priced. The thermal byproduct portion of the Met segment is 95% committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance at an average price of $80.74.

就我們對 2025 年的承諾情況而言，在指導中期，我們在 Met 部門的冶金噸位中有 32% 已經承諾，平均價格為 143.81 美元。我們今年的另外 56% 的大宗商品噸位已經承諾，但尚未定價。Met 部門的熱副產品部分已承諾 95%，價格為指導價的中間值，平均價格為 80.74 美元。

Due to the continued softness in the met coal markets, we did not repurchase any shares in the fourth quarter under the company's share buyback program. As of February 21, the number of common stock shares outstanding was approximately $13 million.

由於冶金煤市場持續疲軟，我們在第四季沒有根據公司股票回購計畫回購任何股票。截至 2 月 21 日，流通在外的普通股股數約為 1,300 萬美元。

The remaining stock buyback program authorization permits approximately $400 million in additional repurchases, contingent on cash flow levels and market conditions. We have repurchased a total of 6.6 million shares under the existing plan at an average share price of $165.74.

剩餘的股票回購計畫授權允許額外回購約 4 億美元，取決於現金流水準和市場條件。我們按照現有計畫共回購了 660 萬股，平均每股價格為 165.74 美元。

I will now turn the call over to Jason to provide an update on operations.

現在我將把電話轉給傑森，讓他提供有關營運的最新情況。

Thanks, Todd. Good morning, everyone. At the conclusion of each year, we evaluate each operations' track record to determine the winners of our best-in-class awards, which recognize excellence in safety, environmental stewardship and productivity. Three critical pillars of Alpha's success.

謝謝，托德。大家早安。每年年底，我們都會評估每項營運的業績記錄，以確定最佳獎項的獲獎者，以表彰其在安全、環境管理和生產力方面的卓越表現。Alpha 成功的三大關鍵支柱。

This year is extra special as the word has been renamed in honor of our previous Chairman and CEO, we are pleased to announce the winners of this year's David J. Stetson best-in-class awards. Rolling Thunder Deep Mine won the best mine category, Mammoth Processing Plant was the winner of the processing plant category and our Feats Loadout took home the honors in the loadout category.

今年格外特殊，因為這個詞已重新命名以紀念我們前任董事長兼首席執行官，我們很高興地宣布今年 David J. Stetson 最佳獎的獲獎者。Rolling Thunder Deep Mine 贏得了最佳地雷類別的冠軍，Mammoth Processing Plant 贏得了加工廠類別的冠軍，而我們的 Feats Loadout 則獲得了裝備類別的冠軍。

Achieving this level of performance requires teamwork and a commitment to continuous improvement, and I want to offer my congratulations to each and every employee whose hard work earn these accolades, strengthening both their respective operations and the company as a whole.

達到這樣的績效水準需要團隊合作和持續改進的承諾，我要向每一位員工表示祝賀，他們的辛勤工作贏得了這些讚譽，增強了他們各自的營運和整個公司。

It's encouraging to see the competitiveness across the company as these teams work hard to earn a sought-after recognition, this makes us all better.

看到這些團隊努力工作以獲得夢寐以求的認可，整個公司的競爭力令人鼓舞，這使我們所有人都變得更好。

While we call out only a few specific operations for best-in-class awards, it's important to acknowledge the good work occurring across our organization. For example, in the area of environmental stewardship, we maintained our 99.9% water quality compliance in 2024. A measure of success and safety is TRR or total reportable incident rate where we consistently performed favorably to the coal industry average.

儘管我們僅表彰少數特定業務並授予其一流獎項，但承認整個組織中出現的出色工作也非常重要。例如，在環境管理方面，我們在 2024 年維持了 99.9% 的水質合規性。成功且安全的衡量標準是 TRR 或總可報告事故率，我們的表現始終優於煤炭產業平均值。

In the last two years, we've had back-to-back company records for this safety metric along with the second best year on record for company-wide NFDL or non-fatal days lost, which is another safety measure where we consistently performed better than the coal industry average.

在過去的兩年中，我們在這項安全指標上連續兩年創下公司新高，同時全公司 NFDL 或非致命損失天數也是有史以來第二好的一年，在另一項安全指標方面，我們的表現始終優於煤炭行業平均水平。

In aggregate, we had 41 work groups, which totaled over 2.8 million exposure hours throughout 2024 calendar year with zero NFDL injuries. As we often say, a safe mine is a productive mine and that holds true as our alpha underground productivity rates continue to exceed that of our non-longwall peers. I want to publicly praise our teams for continuing to perform exceptionally well in these and many other measures of safety, environmental compliance and productivity.

整體而言，我們有 41 個工作小組，整個 2024 日曆年的總暴露時間超過 280 萬小時，沒有發生過 NFDL 傷害事件。我們常說，安全的礦井才是高效的礦井，這確實如此，因為我們的地下開採阿爾法生產率持續超過非長壁開採的同行。我想公開讚揚我們的團隊在這些以及許多其他安全、環境合規和生產力指標中繼續表現優異。

Turning to the quarter. I want to thank the operations team for their continued hard work, focusing on controlling spend while maintaining productivity. As Todd stated, quarter-over-quarter cost of coal sales were down approximately $6 a ton across equivalent sales volumes of 4.1 million tons.

轉向本季。我要感謝營運團隊的持續努力，專注於控制支出同時維持生產力。托德表示，煤炭銷售成本較上月下降約 6 美元/噸，當量銷售量為 410 萬噸。

I'll remind everyone that typically the fourth quarter is challenging due to two planned shutdown periods across most of our operations. Heavy contributors to the quarter-over-quarter decrease came from lower supply and repair costs as well as lower transportation and preparation costs. I appreciate everyone's continued focus on things within our control as we head into 2025.

我要提醒大家，由於我們大多數業務都計劃停工兩次，因此第四季通常充滿挑戰。造成季度環比下降的主要原因是供應和維修成本以及運輸和準備成本的下降。在邁入 2025 年之際，我感謝大家繼續關注我們能夠控制的事情。

I'd also like to give an update on the Kingston Wildcat slope that we're developing in Pax, West Virginia. Our in-house crews continue to push the slope development down. As of today, we're approximately 880 feet deep, which is about halfway. We're still on track with our initial estimates hit the coal seam and start taking development cuts in coal late this year.

我還想介紹一下我們在西維吉尼亞州帕克斯堡開發的金斯頓野貓斜坡的最新情況。我們的內部工作人員繼續推動斜坡向下發展。截至今天，我們的深度約為 880 英尺，大約是一半。我們仍按照初步估計的計畫開採煤層，並於今年稍後開始削減煤炭開發產量。

As a reminder, we expect the Wildcat mine will produce approximately 1 million tons of low-vol coal per year when it reaches full production.

提醒一下，我們預計 Wildcat 礦井達到滿載生產後每年將生產約 100 萬噸低揮發性煤。

Looking forward into Q1, I can tell you that 2025 has presented with some challenges. Weather data from Beckley, West Virginia, which is in the proximity of many of our operations, show year-to-date precipitation and snow fall have been 201% and 135% of normal, respectively. On top of the excessive precipitation, below average temperature has entered operations.

展望第一季度，我可以告訴你，2025 年面臨一些挑戰。西維吉尼亞州貝克利距離我們的許多業務地點很近，這裡的天氣數據顯示，今年迄今的降水量和降雪量分別為正常值的 201% 和 135%。除了過多的降水外，氣溫也低於平均值。

Internal and external transportation systems, our preparation facilities, utilities infrastructures and safe means for employees to travel to work have all been compromised several times, which contributed to the change in cost guidance mentioned earlier.

內部和外部交通系統、我們的準備設施、公用設施基礎設施以及員工上下班的安全方式都多次受到損害，這導致了前面提到的成本指引的變化。

It's times like this where the hardest work often goes unnoticed, and I'd like to thank the Alpha team members who doubled their efforts to ensure that internal roads and systems were kept open and operating to the very best of their abilities during the first couple of challenging months of the year.

正是在這種時候，最艱苦的工作往往會被忽視，我要感謝 Alpha 團隊成員，他們加倍努力，確保內部道路和系統在一年中最艱難的幾個月裡保持暢通並盡最大努力運行。

With those operational updates, I'll now turn the call over to Dan for an update on the markets.

有了這些營運更新，我現在將電話轉給丹，詢問市場的最新情況。

Thanks, Jason, and good morning, everyone. Metallurgical coal markets ended 2024 at sharply lower levels than they began the calendar year with each of Alpha's followed indices experiencing at least a 30% drop. For example, the Australian premium Low-Vol index declined by 40% from the start of the year until the end.

謝謝，傑森，大家早安。2024 年底，冶金煤市場價格大幅低於年初的水平，Alpha 追蹤的每個指數都經歷了至少 30% 的下跌。例如，澳洲優質低波動指數從年初到年末下跌了 40%。

From the start to the finish of the fourth quarter specifically, there was limited movement among the four indices that Alpha closely monitors. The Australian premium Low-Vol Index fell from $204.75 per metric ton on October 1, 2024 to $196.50 per metric ton on December 31, 2024.

具體來說，從第四季開始到結束，Alpha 密切關注的四個指數的變動有限。澳洲優質低波動指數從 2024 年 10 月 1 日的每公噸 204.75 美元跌至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的每公噸 196.50 美元。

The -- the US East Coast Low-Vol Index decreased slightly from $189 per metric ton at the beginning of the quarter to $188 per metric ton at quarter end. The US East Coast High-Vol A Index fell from $184 per metric ton in October to $183 per metric ton at the end of December 2024. And finally, the US East Coast High-Vol B Index opened and closed the quarter at $171 per metric ton.

美國東海岸低波動指數從本季初的每公噸 189 美元小幅下降至季末的每公噸 188 美元。美國東海岸高波動率 A 指數從 10 月的每公噸 184 美元跌至 2024 年 12 月底的每公噸 183 美元。最後，美國東岸高波動 B 指數本季開盤和收盤價為每公噸 171 美元。

Since the quarter closed, the Australian PLV decreased to $187 per metric ton as of February 26. We -- the US East Coast Low-Vol, High-Vol A and High-Vol B indices measured $184, $180.50 and $167.50 per ton, respectively, as of the same date.

自本季結束以來，截至 2 月 26 日，澳洲 PLV 下降至每公噸 187 美元。我們——截至同一日期，美國東海岸低波動率、高波動率 A 和高波動率 B 指數分別為每噸 184 美元、180.50 美元和 167.50 美元。

In the seaborne thermal market, the API 2 index was $118.25 per metric ton on October 1, 2024, decreased to $113.15 per metric ton on December 31, 2024. And since then, the API 2 has fallen to $93 per metric ton as of February 26.

在海運熱能市場，API 2指數於2024年10月1日為每公噸118.25美元，於2024年12月31日降至每公噸113.15美元。自那時起，截至 2 月 26 日，API 2 已跌至每公噸 93 美元。

I -- the downward movement in metallurgical coal indices are primarily due to a decline in steel demand, which has been influenced by uncertainty in geopolitics and economic conditions across the globe.

I—冶金煤指數的下跌主要是由於全球地緣政治和經濟狀況的不確定性導致鋼鐵需求下降。

With numerous elections having been held and leaders elected within 2024, markets are now attempting to digest the anticipated future actions and governing priorities of these recently installed governments. For example, the new US administration has expressed its commitment to imposing tariffs on certain imported goods and materials.

隨著 2024 年內舉行了多場選舉並選出領導人，市場現在正試圖消化這些新政府預期的未來行動和執政重點。例如，美國新政府已表示將對某些進口商品和材料徵收關稅。

If new tariffs are imposed and trade wars occur, these circumstances will likely impact natural coal trade flows and the cost of materials for coal producers. As we've seen in recent weeks, the tariff situation is one that changes rapidly, so we continue to keep an eye on it, and we will adjust as necessary depending on where things will end once the dust settles.

如果徵收新的關稅並發生貿易戰，這些情況可能會影響自然煤炭貿易流量和煤炭生產商的材料成本。正如我們最近幾週所看到的，關稅情況瞬息萬變，因此我們將繼續關注它，並根據事態平息後的結果進行必要的調整。

Many of the factors that negatively influenced metallurgical coal markets last year, such as depressed steel demand, continued to loom over the current pricing environment. Additional uncertainty around fiscal policies, shifting geopolitical priorities and trade practices as well as the overall economic health of the major coal-producing and coal-buying regions of the world will continue to influence metallurgical coal pricing.

去年對冶金煤市場產生負面影響的許多因素（例如鋼鐵需求低迷）繼續籠罩著當前的價格環境。財政政策、地緣政治重點和貿易慣例的變化以及世界主要產煤和購煤地區的整體經濟健康狀況的額外不確定性將繼續影響冶金煤定價。

Absent an increase in steel demand and a more certain geopolitical and economic backdrop, challenging coal market conditions are expected to continue in the coming months.

如果沒有鋼鐵需求的增加以及更確定的地緣政治和經濟背景，預計未來幾個月煤炭市場的艱難狀況仍將持續。

We continue to engage with customers as usual, making commitments for our 2025 export tonnage. Our most immediate challenges relate to the unfortunate weather conditions that have hammered the Eastern United States in recent weeks as they have created bottlenecks along the entire process of producing, moving by rail and loading coal into vessels. We expect these negative influences to lower our overall shipments and therefore, weigh on our quarterly results for both Q1 and Q2.

我們將繼續像往常一樣與客戶合作，並對 2025 年的出口噸位做出承諾。我們面臨的最直接挑戰與最近幾週襲擊美國東部的惡劣天氣有關，這些天氣狀況導致煤炭生產、鐵路運輸和裝載的整個過程陷入瓶頸。我們預計這些負面影響將降低我們的整體出貨量，進而對第一季和第二季的季度業績造成影響。

At DTA, the team has done a great job of keeping operations running as smoothly as possible despite unfavorable weather conditions. As part of the multiyear program to upgrade equipment and infrastructure, a planned outage of roughly two weeks of scheduled to occur in May. While significant work and preparation have occurred to minimize the disruption to our shipping operations, we recognize that this outage has the potential to delay some shipments.

在 DTA，儘管天氣條件不利，團隊仍出色地保持營運盡可能順利進行。作為多年設備和基礎設施升級計劃的一部分，計劃於 5 月進行約兩週的停電。儘管我們已經開展了大量工作和準備工作以盡量減少對我們的運輸業務的干擾，但我們認識到這次中斷可能會延誤一些貨物的運輸。

And with that, operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.

接線員，現在我們可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Nathan Martin, Benchmark Company.

內森馬丁 (Nathan Martin)，Benchmark Company。

Dan, maybe just coming back to your comments towards the end. How should we think about the cadence of sales as we go through the quarters here in '25? You mentioned Clearly, the weather disruptions at the start of the year.

丹，也許只是回到你最後的評論。在25年的各個季度中，我們該如何看待銷售節奏？您顯然提到了年初的天氣幹擾。

You just called out the plant outage of DTA in May. I think typical seasonality also limits domestic shipments in 1Q anyways because of the weather. So -- maybe just get some thoughts on how you guys see that playing out quarter-by-quarter for '25?

您剛剛報告了 DTA 五月的工廠停產情況。我認為典型的季節性也會因天氣原因限制第一季的國內出貨量。那麼 —— 也許只是想了解一下你們對 25 年每季的表現有何看法？

Yes, Nate. I mean I think -- well, the domestic shipments should be -- the cadence on those should be roughly pro rata. We do -- don't have much like business. So we continue -- that should be fairly ratable through the year.

是的，內特。我的意思是，我認為 - 嗯，國內出貨量應該 - 這些的節奏應該大致按比例。我們確實沒有太多類似的業務。因此我們繼續——這應該是全年相當可觀的。

On the export side, probably have more in the back half as we catch up from some of the missed shipments, we'll have to what some of my team calls the accordion effect on the shipments. We have low inventories today. As things come back to normal, will pick up and resume slightly higher level shipments as we go forward.

在出口方面，隨著我們彌補一些錯過的貨物，下半年可能會有更多的貨物，我們將不得不面對我的團隊所說的對貨物的「手風琴效應」。我們今天庫存不多。隨著一切恢復正常，我們的出貨量將會回升並恢復略高水準。

Some of that's market dependent too. We expect the steel demand hopefully improves towards the back half. There should be some more spot demand and spot shipments as well.

其中一些也依賴市場。我們預計下半年鋼鐵需求可望改善。應該還會有更多的現貨需求和現貨出貨量。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then talking about cost per ton guidance. Clearly, you guys raised that $2 at the high end, as you mentioned. Is it possible to get a breakdown of that between the expectation for lower shipments, the purchased coal, how that impacted the cost range and then the difficult weather to start the year, any way to quantify that?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後談論每噸成本指導。顯然，正如你所說，你們將那 2 美元提高到了最高水平。能否對預計煤炭出貨量下降、購買量對成本範圍造成的影響以及年初的惡劣天氣進行細分，有什麼方法可以量化這一點？

Nate, it's Andy. I don't think so. I mean it's we're kind of picking nits there. And again, we only increased the upper range by $2. And it's a little bit of a fudge factor to be honest. We do know that there's going to be some -- we've seen the cost impacts in actuals in January. We haven't seen February actuals, of course. But we do expect some impact there.

內特，我是安迪。我不這麼認為。我的意思是我們有點在吹毛求疵。並且，我們僅將上限提高了 2 美元。說實話，這有點像是一種欺騙。我們確實知道會有一些——我們已經在一月份看到了實際的成本影響。當然，我們還沒有看到二月的實際情況。但我們確實預計會出現一些影響。

So we're really just guarding against any kind of issues with Q1 throwing us off track for guidance. It gives us a little bit of breathing room. But we do know if there's at least $1 of impact baked in there to the midpoint. And it's really hard to break it down between any of the contributing factors.

因此，我們實際上只是在防範第一季出現任何問題，以免偏離預期目標。它給了我們一點喘息的空間。但我們確實知道其中是否至少有 1 美元的影響會波及到中點。而且，很難將其分解為各種促成因素。

Okay. That's fair, Andy, I get it. Maybe just shifting over to the price side. It looks like you guys priced some export met tons now at $113. If my math is close, it's probably around 1 million tons, maybe a little bit more than that based on the rest of your guidance.

好的。這很公平，安迪，我明白了。或許只是轉向價格方面。看起來你們現在一些出口金屬噸的定價是 113 美元。如果我的計算接近的話，那可能在 100 萬噸左右，根據您的其他指導，也許會比這稍微多一點。

Could we get an idea maybe the quality or index mechanism being used for those tons? Because even in this market, I feel like that $113 is maybe a little lower than I would have expected and clearly getting close to kind of the high end of that cost per ton guidance now. But maybe it's just because it's High-Vol B, you're going CFR or whatever, but some additional color would be great.

我們能否了解這些噸位所使用的質量或指數機制？因為即使在這個市場中，我覺得 113 美元可能比我預期的要低一點，而且顯然已經接近現在每噸成本指導價的高端。但也許只是因為它是 High-Vol B，你要去 CFR 或其他什麼，但一些額外的顏色會很棒。

Yes, Nate, probably -- those tons probably are High-Vol tons. We're still anticipating a little bit of uplift in the price cards as the year goes on. I can't really comment if they're going to be a be High-Vol A or High-Vol B, can't get too granular on that. But broadly speaking, those tons would be priced as high-vol.

是的，Nate，可能——那些噸可能是高波動噸。隨著時間的推移，我們仍然預計價格會略有上漲。我真的無法評論它們是否會成為 High-Vol A 還是 High-Vol B，對此無法進行太詳細的說明。但從廣義上講，這些噸位的價格將被定為高波動性。

I will say that supply is a little tighter than maybe you'd read in the rags these days that the weather impacts on the East Coast have affected all cap producers and not producers as well. So I think maybe things are being a little bit underreported as far as supply.

我想說的是，供應比你最近在報紙上讀到的要緊張一些，東海岸的天氣影響已經影響到了所有帽子生產商，同時也影響到了非生產商。因此，我認為就供應而言，情況可能被低估了。

Okay, Dan. Got it. I appreciate that. And then maybe just one more, guys. Just kind of thinking about the macro, in general, you made a couple of comments related to tariffs. I was just thinking, we know Alpha is one of the largest suppliers of Met coal to the domestic steel markets.

好的，丹。知道了。我很感激。然後也許只剩下一個了，夥計們。只是從宏觀角度思考一下，總的來說，你發表了一些與關稅相關的評論。我在想，我們知道 Alpha 是國內鋼鐵市場最大的冶金煤供應商之一。

And given the moves we've seen thus far from the new administration. What are your thoughts on how that could impact your domestic demand for your products? And is there -- what's your ability to shift tons back and forth in domestic export to kind of maximize your margins there?

鑑於我們迄今為止看到的新政府的舉措。您認為這會對你們產品的國內需求產生什麼影響？您有沒有能力在國內出口中來回轉移噸位，從而最大限度地提高您的利潤？

Sure. We certainly have the ability to shift some tons between the two, between seaborne and domestic. I think when you look at the domestic market, it sort of begins and ends with the blast furnaces.

當然。我們當然有能力在海運和國內之間轉移一些噸位。我認為，當你看國內市場時，它會始於高爐，也終於高爐。

And right now, our customers are running their blast furnaces that they intend to run, let's say. I'm not sure that there will be additional blast furnace production coming on. If there is then that's going to require additional coproduction and then that will require additional coking coal.

現在，我們的客戶正在運行他們打算運行的高爐。我不確定是否會有額外的高爐產量。如果有的話就需要額外的聯產，進而需要額外的焦煤。

So to the extent that happens, we're prepared. I'm not sure I see signals that, that will happen yet though.

所以，如果發生這種情況，我們已經準備好了。不過，我不確定我是否看到了那將會發生的訊號。

Nick Giles, B. Riley.

尼克吉爾斯、B.萊利。

Congratulations on all your accomplishments at the operating level, I'm sure the trophy case is getting pretty full. My first question is cash was $480 million, which I believe is roughly flat quarter-over-quarter, but still higher than historical periods. Is this kind of the level we should expect you to target if the market remains weak and then what kind of level should we think about if markets are to turn? And how should we square this with cash that could be deployed towards share repurchases?

恭喜您在營運層面的所有成就，我相信獎盃櫃裡一定裝滿了獎品。我的第一個問題是現金為 4.8 億美元，我認為這與上一季基本持平，但仍高於歷史時期。如果市場保持疲軟，我們就應該以這種水準為目標嗎？那麼，我們該如何平衡這部分資金與可用於股票回購的現金呢？

Yes. And thanks, Nick, for the complement. It's kind of lost in the chaos of the market right now of how well operations did perform in Q4. And so we don't want to gloss that over that. As I mentioned, the bad market and tariffs get in the headlines, but the real story here is how well operations performed in the quarter, both from productivity. Once again, we're top of the heap on the met production side. As far as MSHA productivity metrics, our safety was off the charts, not just for the quarter but for the year. So a lot of good work happening there.

是的。謝謝尼克的補充。目前，在市場混亂的情況下，人們已經有點忘記第四季的營運表現了。因此我們不想掩蓋這一點。正如我所提到的，糟糕的市場和關稅成為頭條新聞，但真正的故事是本季的營運表現如何，包括生產力。我們再次在大都會生產方面名列前茅。就 MSHA 生產力指標而言，我們的安全性超出預期，不僅是本季度，而是全年。那裡發生了很多好事。

But talking about liquidity. I mean, our target has been -- and we talked about -- we started this conversation a year ago, really a year ago almost this week of -- we felt the market was getting some weak legs and we went into cash preservation mode.

但談論流動性。我的意思是，我們的目標是——我們也討論過——我們在一年前就開始了這次談話，實際上是在一年前，差不多是這個星期——我們覺得市場開始變得疲軟，所以我們進入了現金保全模式。

So we suspended the share repurchase, and we wanted to warehouse as much cash as possible. We have hit this kind of a static rate in that, generally speaking, we'll call it, a $400 million to $500 million range of cash and then additional liquidity from the ABL. And we want to hold on to that as long as we possibly can. We're going to continue managing to cash rather than any other outside the situation.

因此，我們暫停了股票回購，我們希望儲存盡可能多的現金。我們已經達到了這樣一種靜態利率，一般來說，我們稱之為 4 億到 5 億美元的現金範圍，然後是來自 ABL 的額外流動性。我們希望盡可能長時間地堅持這一點。我們將繼續設法兌現，而不是採取任何其他外部情況。

And at this point, I don't know that we're really interested in thinking about any share repurchase activity or any kind of capital returns until we do see some trend in the market going in the other direction. Because this thing is set in for a little bit, and there's just a lot of uncertainty. So I think we're going to kind of maintain course on what we've been doing. And job, one has always been protected franchise, and we're going to continue that direction.

就目前而言，我不知道我們是否真的有興趣考慮任何股票回購活動或任何形式的資本回報，直到我們確實看到市場朝著另一個方向發展的趨勢。因為這件事情已經定下來了，而且還存在著許多的不確定性。所以我認為我們會繼續我們一直在做的事情。而工作，始終是受保護的特許經營權，我們將繼續朝這個方向發展。

Makes sense. I appreciate that, Andy. Maybe just from an M&A perspective, I think you may have alluded to some potential opportunities out there. Any other additional color around those, whether from a size perspective or what kind of metrics are you paying attention to? What geographies make much sense would this be some of your Central App peers, for instance.

有道理。我很感激，安迪。也許僅從併購的角度來看，我認為您可能已經提到了一些潛在的機會。這些周圍還有其他附加顏色嗎，無論是從尺寸角度還是從您關注的指標來看？例如，哪些地理位置更有意義，這會是您的一些中央應用程式同行嗎？

Yes. And again, let me go ahead and warn you. There's nothing actionable out there at the moment. There are obviously some processes going on with certain assets. There are some bankruptcy processes that are working through the system. So there are lots of opportunities to do some things that could be kind of a low entry cost. The issue now is you have to be careful of watching for cash burn from operations. That's the thing you have to keep an eye on.

是的。再次強調，我要警告你。目前還沒有任何可採取的行動。顯然，某些資產正在進行一些流程。一些破產程序正在透過該系統進行。因此，有很多機會可以做一些入門成本較低的事情。現在的問題是你必須小心注意營運中的現金消耗。這是你必須留意的事情。

But there are some potentially some opportunities. We've always thought about the filter of, number one, it needs to be geographically synergistic. Number two, it needs to be somewhat synergistic or additive from a coal quality standpoint. And thirdly, it needs to be, in some way, accretive, whether it's net income, cash flow or EBITDA, some metric, it needs to make some sense.

但也存在一些潛在的機會。我們一直在思考過濾器，第一，它需要具有地理協同作用。第二，從煤炭品質的角度來看，它需要有一定的協同作用或附加作用。第三，它需要在某種程度上具有增值性，無論是淨收入、現金流量或 EBITDA，某些指標都需要有意義。

And -- at this point in time, it's a little bit tougher to hit the accretion mark. But again, right now, it's not forever. So if there are some opportunities for us to see some consolidating M&A, whether it's very, very small or slightly larger than a bot size, then we're going to have to strongly consider it.

而且 —— 在現階段，要達到吸積目標有點困難。但目前看來，這還不是永遠的。因此，如果我們有機會看到一些合併併購，無論它非常非常小還是比機器人規模略大，那麼我們都必須認真考慮它。

That's helpful. Maybe just one more for me. Any color around kind of where you see marginal cost today. Any other comments you can share around how much supply out of Central App might have come out of the market to date and then how much could be at risk?

這很有幫助。對我來說也許僅此而已。今天您看到的邊際成本周圍的任何顏色。您還能分享其他評論嗎？

Oh goodness, that's the billion-dollar question right there. I mean we have seen a few tons come out. Some of it has been through actual mine idling. Some of it has been through operational interruptions for other reasons. So it's kind of hard to gauge how much of these are permanently gone or even more midterm tons that are out of the market. So I don't want to comment on that.

哦天哪，這是一個價值十億美元的問題。我的意思是我們已經看到幾噸的東西出來了。其中一些是實際礦井空轉的結果。其中一些由於其他原因而導致營運中斷。因此，很難判斷其中有多少是永久消失的，或者有多少中期產量退出了市場。所以我不想對此發表評論。

I do think another thing that we talked about last year was the cost curve at the time the cost curve -- the C90 was around, the view is it was $225 and the thought was that would provide a floor. And obviously, that has not been the case. It still boils down to the breakdown of fixed versus variable cost and what optimizes cash flow for these operations.

我確實認為我們去年談論的另一件事是當時的成本曲線——C90 的成本曲線在附近，人們認為它的價格為 225 美元，並認為這將提供一個底線。顯然，事實並非如此。它仍然歸結為固定成本與可變成本的細分以及如何優化這些操作的現金流量。

I think we are, and at this point -- I think we probably crossed the Rubicon in some respect of several operations that are moving into that ZIP code of where they may not be covering their variable costs on some of their tons.

我認為，在這一點上 — — 我認為我們可能在某種程度上跨越了盧比孔河，因為有幾項業務正在遷入該郵政編碼區域，他們可能無法收回部分噸位的變動成本。

So I would expect obviously, kind of stating the obvious as this market continues, we'll see more pressure on these. Particularly the smaller operators that don't have the ability to spread their fixed costs across a bunch of times. We're going to see some of those -- more of those folks exiting.

因此我顯然可以預料，隨著市場的發展，我們將看到更大的壓力。特別是那些規模較小的營運商，他們沒有能力將固定成本分攤到多個時間。我們將會看到更多的人退出。

And a lot of the higher cost operations could be coming out sooner rather than later. We're not going to comment on anything specific because everybody's got to make their own decisions. But I can't see how there's not more to come. I do think marginal cost is becoming a real issue at this point. And I think that's where the pressure is going to apply, particularly in Central Appalachia.

而且許多成本較高的操作可能很快就會出現。我們不會對任何具體的事情發表評論，因為每個人都必須做出自己的決定。但我不明白為什麼沒有更多的事情發生。我確實認為邊際成本現在正成為一個真正的問題。我認為這就是壓力所在，特別是在阿巴拉契亞山脈中部。

Andy, I appreciate all that color. If I could sneak in one more, maybe just on the transportation side. Can you just remind us of maybe any sensitivity to pricing? And then I believe your transportation costs don't work on a lag. So if you could just clarify that, that would be helpful.

安迪，我很欣賞這些顏色。如果我可以再偷偷地講一次，也許只是在交通方面。您能否提醒我們價格方面是否有敏感度？然後我相信你的運輸成本不會因為滯後而起作用。所以如果你能澄清這一點，那將會很有幫助。

You're referring to rail costs?

您指的是鐵路成本嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Yes. We don't really comment on that. Those are contractual situations with both railroads. So we don't say too much. I mean, they are somewhat aligned with indexes. So that's probably all I should say about that.

是的。我們對此不做評論。這些是與兩條鐵路簽訂的合約情況。所以我們也不好多說。我的意思是，它們在某種程度上與指數一致。關於這一點我應該說的就這些了。

Fair enough. Well, Andy and team, I want to commend you on all your efforts in this tough market. So keep up the good work.

很公平。好吧，安迪和團隊，我想讚揚你們在這個艱難的市場中所做的一切努力。所以請繼續努力。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Andy Eidson for closing remarks.

問答環節已經結束。現在我想將電話轉回給安迪‧艾德森 (Andy Eidson) 來做結束語。

Well, thanks, everyone, for your time today. We appreciate you, and we'll see you next quarter. Have a great rest of the day and a great weekend.

好吧，謝謝大家今天抽出時間。我們感謝您，我們將於下個季度與您見面。祝您今天剩餘的時間過得愉快，週末愉快。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開您的線路，我們感謝您的參與。