Affiliated Managers Group Inc (AMG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the AMG Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ms. Patricia Figueroa, Head of Investor Relations for AMG. Thank you. You may begin.

大家好，歡迎來到 AMG 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。我現在想把會議轉交給你的主持人，AMG 投資者關係主管 Patricia Figueroa 女士。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to discuss AMG's results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during this call, we may make a number of forward-looking statements, which could differ from our actual results materially, and AMG assumes no obligation to update these statements.

早上好，感謝您今天加入我們討論 AMG 第四季度和 2022 年全年的業績。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會做出一些前瞻性陳述，這可能與我們的實際結果存在重大差異，AMG 不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

A replay of today's call will be available on the Investor Relations section of our website, along with a copy of our earnings release and a reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures, including any earnings guidance announced on this call. In addition, we posted an updated investor presentation to our website this morning and encourage investors to consult our site regularly for updated information.

我們網站的投資者關係部分將提供今天電話會議的重播，以及我們的收益發布副本和任何非 GAAP 財務措施的對賬，包括本次電話會議上宣布的任何收益指導。此外，我們今天早上在我們的網站上發布了更新的投資者介紹，並鼓勵投資者定期訪問我們的網站以獲取最新信息。

With us today to discuss the company's results for the quarter are Jay Horgen, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tom Wojcik, Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我們一起討論公司本季度業績的是總裁兼首席執行官 Jay Horgen；首席財務官 Tom Wojcik。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jay.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給傑伊。

Thanks, Patricia, and good morning, everyone. AMG achieved outstanding results in 2022, delivering 10% growth in economic earnings per share over the past year and 50% growth over 2 years. Notably, we generated these results across dramatically different market environments. In 2021, world markets rose significantly against the backdrop of low rates and easy monetary policies, while in 2022, global tightening and geopolitical risks drove double-digit declines across both equities and fixed income.

謝謝，帕特里夏，大家早上好。 AMG 在 2022 年取得了出色的成績，過去一年每股經濟收益增長了 10%，過去 2 年增長了 50%。值得注意的是，我們在截然不同的市場環境中產生了這些結果。 2021 年，在低利率和寬鬆貨幣政策的背景下，世界市場大幅上漲，而 2022 年，全球緊縮和地緣政治風險導致股票和固定收益出現兩位數的跌幅。

Over that period, AMG delivered record earnings per share driven by excellent performance from our affiliates, new investments in secular growth areas and share repurchases. Our industry-leading results in an otherwise challenging environment for asset management highlight the efficacy of our model, the quality of our affiliates and the positive impact of our capital allocation strategy. And as we will discuss today, we believe AMG is uniquely positioned for success and continued growth going forward.

在此期間，AMG 實現了創紀錄的每股收益，這得益於我們附屬公司的出色表現、對長期增長領域的新投資以及股票回購。我們在充滿挑戰的資產管理環境中取得了行業領先的業績，凸顯了我們模式的有效性、附屬公司的質量以及我們資本配置策略的積極影響。正如我們今天將討論的那樣，我們相信 AMG 在取得成功和持續增長方面具有獨特的優勢。

Stepping back, over the last few years, we have strategically evolved AMG by aligning our capital and resources with long-term demand trends. Since 2019, we invested $1.3 billion for growth in new and existing affiliates that contributed more than $200 million in EBITDA to AMG in 2022. Alternatives, including both liquid alternatives and private markets, accounted for approximately 2/3 of these investments with the remaining 1/3 primarily in sustainable strategies.

退一步說，在過去的幾年裡，我們通過使我們的資本和資源與長期需求趨勢保持一致，戰略性地發展了 AMG。自 2019 年以來，我們投資了 13 億美元用於新的和現有的附屬公司的增長，這些附屬公司在 2022 年為 AMG 貢獻了超過 2 億美元的 EBITDA。替代方案，包括流動性替代方案和私人市場，約佔這些投資的 2/3，其餘 1 /3 主要在可持續戰略方面。

The decisions we made in 2022 were representative of our growth strategy. We began the year with an incremental investment in Systematica, one of the industry's leading technology-driven liquid alternatives managers, and we ended the year with an investment in Peppertree Capital, a high-quality private markets manager in the fast-growing communications infrastructure segment.

我們在 2022 年做出的決定代表了我們的增長戰略。今年年初，我們對 Systematica 進行了增量投資，Systematica 是行業領先的技術驅動型流動性另類投資管理公司之一，年底我們對 Peppertree Capital 進行了投資，Peppertree Capital 是快速增長的通信基礎設施領域的優質私募市場管理公司.

Today, more than half of our earnings are generated by affiliates in areas of secular growth, nearly doubling our exposure since 2019. And as we continue to evolve our business mix, we expect that contribution to increase, driving future growth and further differentiating AMG from our peers.

今天，我們一半以上的收入來自長期增長領域的附屬公司，自 2019 年以來我們的風險敞口幾乎翻了一番。隨著我們不斷發展我們的業務組合，我們預計這種貢獻會增加，推動未來增長並進一步將 AMG 與我們的同齡人。

In addition to our successful new investments, we have enhanced our strategic engagement with affiliates, working with our partners to magnify their efforts and improve their competitive positioning, thereby creating value for all stakeholders. For example, in 2022, our engagement and collaboration resulted in the successful combination of First Quadrant with Systematica. The combination for a diversified Systematica's product offering extends their client reach and supports the growing scale of a business that more than doubled since our initial investment.

除了我們成功的新投資，我們還加強了與附屬公司的戰略合作，與我們的合作夥伴合作，擴大他們的努力並提高他們的競爭地位，從而為所有利益相關者創造價值。例如，在 2022 年，我們的參與和協作促成了 First Quadrant 與 Systematica 的成功結合。多元化 Systematica 產品的組合擴大了他們的客戶範圍，並支持不斷增長的業務規模，自我們最初投資以來，業務規模擴大了一倍多。

In addition, in 2022, strong business momentum at Baring supported by our strategic engagement enabled them to realize the benefits of a combination with EQT. As a result, AMG received more than $800 million in consideration for our interest in Baring. We have already deployed a majority of that capital for the benefit of AMG shareholders, including through our investment in Peppertree and an increased level of share repurchases.

此外，在 2022 年，在我們的戰略參與的支持下，霸菱的強勁業務勢頭使他們能夠實現與殷拓合併的好處。結果，AMG 獲得了超過 8 億美元的對價，作為我們在 Baring 的權益。我們已經為 AMG 股東的利益部署了大部分資金，包括通過我們對 Peppertree 的投資和更高水平的股票回購。

More broadly, we have used our capital and resources to further our affiliates' long-term objectives, including through product development, capital formation and other business development initiatives. Through our engagement over time, we expect to identify additional opportunities to build on our affiliates' long-term growth prospects and their strategic goals.

更廣泛地說，我們利用我們的資本和資源來推進我們附屬公司的長期目標，包括通過產品開發、資本形成和其他業務發展計劃。通過我們長期的參與，我們希望找到更多的機會來建立我們附屬公司的長期增長前景和他們的戰略目標。

Looking ahead, we entered 2023 in a position of strength with a strong balance sheet, a diversified array of high-quality affiliates and a strategy focused on areas of secular demand. AMG's overall momentum should enable us to capitalize on opportunities that will emerge in the new market environment.

展望未來，我們進入 2023 年時處於強勢地位，擁有強勁的資產負債表、多元化的優質附屬公司以及專注於長期需求領域的戰略。 AMG 的整體勢頭應該使我們能夠利用新市場環境中出現的機會。

Importantly, we believe portfolio allocations need to change, and taking an intentional approach to rebuilding portfolios for this new environment will be essential to achieving client outcomes in the future. Portfolios that were designed around antiquated asset allocation models underperformed materially in 2022, causing a renewed focus on the fundamentals of portfolio construction, including liquidity, reduced correlations and differentiated return streams.

重要的是，我們認為投資組合分配需要改變，並且採取有意識的方法為這種新環境重建投資組合對於在未來實現客戶成果至關重要。圍繞過時的資產配置模型設計的投資組合在 2022 年表現不佳，導致人們重新關注投資組合構建的基本面，包括流動性、相關性降低和差異化回報流。

We have always believed that partner-owned firms with entrepreneurial cultures are best positioned to deliver differentiated returns across market cycles. And we expect our affiliates to be well positioned to benefit as clients recalibrate their portfolio allocations.

我們始終相信，具有創業文化的合夥人擁有的公司最有能力在整個市場週期中提供差異化的回報。我們希望我們的附屬公司能夠在客戶重新調整其投資組合分配時受益。

This new environment also brings opportunities for attractive new investments as most buyers retrench and the appeal of AMG's partnership approach becomes even more apparent. Having remained disciplined and selective through a period of high valuations and optimistic business plans, especially in private markets, we are seeing both expectations and valuations moderate.

這種新環境也為有吸引力的新投資帶來了機會，因為大多數買家都在縮減開支，而 AMG 的合作方式的吸引力變得更加明顯。通過一段時間的高估值和樂觀的商業計劃，特別是在私募市場，我們保持了紀律和選擇性，我們看到預期和估值都溫和。

In addition, in times of uncertainty, an engaged, proven partner becomes even more valuable. Our unwavering commitment to provide partnership solutions to independent firms and our reputation as a collaborative and supportive partner uniquely positions AMG during a time when other buyers are rethinking their approach. And given our competitive advantages, we expect to execute on attractive new investment opportunities that this environment will likely produce.

此外，在充滿不確定性的時期，敬業、可靠的合作夥伴會變得更有價值。我們堅定不移地致力於為獨立公司提供合作夥伴解決方案，以及我們作為協作和支持合作夥伴的聲譽，在其他買家正在重新考慮他們的方法時，讓 AMG 處於獨特的地位。鑑於我們的競爭優勢，我們希望利用這種環境可能產生的有吸引力的新投資機會。

Finally, I want to underscore our commitment to a disciplined capital allocation framework. Capital decisions are fundamental to our strategy. And we evaluate every opportunity on a risk-adjusted basis, factoring in the impact of the investment to our business mix, cash flows and franchise. These decisions require judgment, and our allocation discipline is embedded across all elements of our process and culture.

最後，我想強調我們對嚴格的資本配置框架的承諾。資本決策是我們戰略的基礎。我們在風險調整的基礎上評估每一個機會，考慮投資對我們的業務組合、現金流和特許經營的影響。這些決定需要判斷，我們的分配紀律貫穿於我們流程和文化的所有元素。

In executing growth investments in new and existing affiliates, we ensure proper alignment with our affiliate partners and structures that benefit all stakeholders. While we believe that these investments will drive long-term shareholder value over time, we also have a track record of returning significant excess capital to shareholders as part of our disciplined strategy. Since 2019, in addition to deploying more than $1.3 billion into growth investments, we have also returned $1.9 billion of excess capital primarily through share repurchases.

在對新的和現有的分支機構進行增長投資時，我們確保與我們的分支機構合作夥伴和結構保持適當的一致性，使所有利益相關者受益。雖然我們相信這些投資將隨著時間的推移推動長期股東價值，但作為我們嚴格戰略的一部分，我們也有向股東返還大量過剩資本的記錄。自 2019 年以來，除了將超過 13 億美元用於增長投資外，我們還主要通過股票回購返還了 19 億美元的超額資本。

Looking ahead, given our opportunity set, we expect that the mix of our investments will skew more towards growth, but the outcome will always be governed by our capital allocation framework.

展望未來，鑑於我們的機遇，我們預計我們的投資組合將更傾向於增長，但結果將始終由我們的資本配置框架決定。

In 2023, we celebrate 30 years of successfully partnering with independent firms. While our business and the asset management landscape have certainly evolved, we remain true to our fundamental objective of providing solutions to independent partner-owned firms and acting as a catalyst to support their success over time.

2023 年，我們將慶祝與獨立公司成功合作 30 週年。雖然我們的業務和資產管理領域確實發生了變化，但我們仍然忠於我們的基本目標，即為獨立的合作夥伴所有的公司提供解決方案，並作為催化劑來支持他們隨著時間的推移取得成功。

Today, we are well positioned to deliver consistent earnings growth, given our unique competitive advantages. And through the execution of our growth strategy and our robust capital allocation framework, we expect to create significant shareholder value going forward.

今天，鑑於我們獨特的競爭優勢，我們有能力實現持續的盈利增長。通過執行我們的增長戰略和穩健的資本配置框架，我們希望在未來創造可觀的股東價值。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Tom to review the details of the quarter.

有了這個，我會把它交給湯姆來審查這個季度的細節。

Thank you, Jay, and good morning, everyone. AMG's excellent 2022 results reflect the differentiation of our business model and stand out against a challenging industry backdrop.

謝謝杰伊，大家早上好。 AMG 出色的 2022 年業績反映了我們業務模式的差異化，並在充滿挑戰的行業背景下脫穎而出。

For the full year, we delivered $1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and economic earnings per share of $20.14, grew 10% year-over-year driven by outstanding affiliate investment performance and the execution of our growth and capital allocation strategies. Liquid alternative strategies delivered strong results for both clients and shareholders and generated $227 million of net performance fee earnings.

全年，我們實現了 11 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 20.14 美元的每股經濟收益，同比增長 10%，這得益於出色的附屬投資業績以及我們增長和資本配置戰略的執行。流動性另類策略為客戶和股東帶來了強勁的業績，並產生了 2.27 億美元的淨業績費收入。

And our strategy resulted in 2 affiliate investments and significant excess capital returned through share repurchases, driving earnings growth today and positioning us well for the future. As we enter 2023, our affiliates value proposition is resonating with clients. Our partnership solution set is uniquely positioned to attract new affiliates. And our balance sheet and cash flow profile enable us to execute on our strategy to create significant shareholder value.

我們的戰略促成了 2 項附屬投資，並通過股票回購返還了大量超額資本，推動了今天的收益增長，並為我們的未來做好了準備。隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們的附屬公司價值主張正在引起客戶的共鳴。我們的合作夥伴解決方案集具有獨特的優勢，可以吸引新的分支機構。我們的資產負債表和現金流狀況使我們能夠執行我們的戰略以創造重要的股東價值。

Now turning to our fourth quarter results. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $371 million and economic earnings per share of $7.28 were up 4% and 19%, respectively, year-over-year, reflecting strong affiliate investment performance and the impact of new investments and share repurchases.

現在轉向我們的第四季度業績。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.71 億美元，每股經濟收益為 7.28 美元，分別同比增長 4% 和 19%，反映出強勁的附屬公司投資業績以及新投資和股票回購的影響。

During the quarter, the Baring transaction was completed. And we received $240 million in cash and 28.7 million EQT shares. For GAAP purposes, we booked a total after-tax gain of $576 million, including a $499 million gain on the transaction that we have reported as a separate line item on our income statement and a $77 million gain on EQT shares, which is included in investment and other income. These gains are excluded from our supplemental metrics, and additionally, Baring earnings are excluded from our fourth quarter and go-forward results.

本季度，霸菱交易完成。我們收到了 2.4 億美元現金和 2870 萬股殷拓股票。就 GAAP 而言，我們登記的稅後總收益為 5.76 億美元，其中包括我們在損益表中作為單獨項目報告的交易收益 4.99 億美元，以及 EQT 股票收益 7700 萬美元，這包括在投資和其他收入。這些收益不包括在我們的補充指標中，此外，Baring 的收益也不包括在我們的第四季度和未來的結果中。

Turning to performance across our business and excluding certain quantitative strategies. Net client cash outflows for the quarter were $5 billion, reflecting continued strength in alternative strategies that was offset by fundamental equities and seasonal redemptions.

轉向我們整個業務的績效，並排除某些量化策略。本季度客戶淨現金流出 50 億美元，反映出另類策略的持續強勢被基本股票和季節性贖回所抵消。

Within alternatives, we reported another strong quarter with almost $6 billion in net inflows, led by $5 billion of private markets fundraising at Pantheon, Comvest and Abacus. Our affiliates continue to generate outstanding investment performance. And their excellent long-term track records across credit, real estate, secondaries and infrastructure continue to drive fundraising momentum.

在備選方案中，我們報告了另一個強勁的季度，淨流入近 60 億美元，其中 Pantheon、Comvest 和 Abacus 的私募市場籌資額為 50 億美元。我們的關聯公司繼續產生出色的投資業績。他們在信貸、房地產、二級市場和基礎設施方面的出色長期業績記錄繼續推動籌資勢頭。

Demand for liquid alternatives continued with approximately $1 billion of net inflows as the volatility and correlation in traditional equity and fixed income markets led many investors to seek alternative sources of return and diversification. Our liquid alternative managers, including Systematica, AQR, Capula and Garda, delivered outstanding performance in 2022 with many strategies producing double-digit returns for clients, resulting in significant performance fee earnings for AMG.

由於傳統股票和固定收益市場的波動性和相關性導致許多投資者尋求替代的回報來源和多元化，對流動性替代品的需求持續增加，淨流入約 10 億美元。我們的流動另類管理公司，包括 Systematica、AQR、Capula 和 Garda，在 2022 年取得了出色的業績，許多策略為客戶帶來了兩位數的回報，從而為 AMG 帶來了可觀的績效費收入。

The diversification provided by liquid alternatives will be critical in building more resilient portfolios in this new market environment. And we expect our diverse set of affiliates will benefit from increasing client demand in this area.

流動性替代品提供的多元化對於在這個新的市場環境中建立更具彈性的投資組合至關重要。我們預計我們多元化的分支機構將從這一領域不斷增長的客戶需求中受益。

Turning to global equities. Net outflows of $7 billion continue to be primarily driven by growth-oriented strategies, in line with broader industry trends. Given our affiliates' strong long-term track records in this category, they are well positioned to recapture client demand over time.

轉向全球股市。 70 億美元的淨流出繼續主要由以增長為導向的戰略推動，符合更廣泛的行業趨勢。鑑於我們的附屬公司在該類別中的良好長期業績記錄，他們有能力隨著時間的推移重新奪回客戶需求。

In U.S. equities, we saw net outflows of $4 billion in the quarter, including approximately $1 billion of retail seasonality. Performance continues to be excellent and improved across all time periods in the quarter. Our affiliates, including Parnassus, Yacktman, Beutel, River Road and Frontier, continue to enhance their positioning amid the strong relative performance of value equity strategies. Finally, in multi-asset and fixed income strategies, flows were flat in the quarter driven by inflows into wealth management and stabilizing fixed income results.

在美國股市，我們看到本季度淨流出 40 億美元，其中包括約 10 億美元的零售季節性資金流出。在本季度的所有時間段內，業績繼續表現出色並有所改善。我們的附屬公司，包括 Parnassus、Yacktman、Beutel、River Road 和 Frontier，在價值股權策略相對強勁的表現中繼續提升其地位。最後，在多資產和固定收益策略中，受資金流入財富管理和穩定固定收益結果的推動，本季度流量持平。

Turning to financials. For the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA of $371 million included $188 million of net performance fee earnings and grew 4% year-over-year as strong performance fee earnings and the impact of our new investment activity more than offset the decline in markets and net flows. Economic earnings per share of $7.28 grew 19% over the prior year quarter, further reflecting the positive impact of share repurchases and a lower tax rate versus a year ago.

轉向財務。第四季度，調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.71 億美元，其中包括 1.88 億美元的淨績效費用收入，同比增長 4%，因為強勁的績效費用收入和我們新投資活動的影響抵消了市場和淨流量的下降.每股經濟收益為 7.28 美元，比去年同期增長 19%，進一步反映了股票回購的積極影響以及與一年前相比較低的稅率。

Performance fee earnings continue to provide a combination of earnings growth, diversification, stability and cash flow. Our affiliates generate performance fee earnings in several ways across absolute return, beta-sensitive private market strategies. And many of those assets are growing as a function of excellent investment performance, positive flows and successful execution of our strategy across secular growth areas.

績效費收入繼續提供收益增長、多元化、穩定性和現金流的組合。我們的附屬公司通過絕對回報、對貝塔敏感的私募市場策略以多種方式產生績效費收入。由於卓越的投資業績、積極的流動和我們在長期增長領域成功執行戰略，其中許多資產正在增長。

In terms of performance fee earnings for full year 2023, we are informed by the combination of our first quarter guidance range, our current performance fee eligible asset base and our high watermark position. Consistent with historical experience, we expect a net performance fee earnings range of $125 million to $175 million for 2023, and we will update you throughout the course of the year.

就 2023 年全年的績效費收入而言，我們從第一季度的指導範圍、我們當前的績效費合格資產基礎和我們的高水位線位置綜合獲悉。根據歷史經驗，我們預計 2023 年的淨績效費收入範圍為 1.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元，我們將在全年為您提供最新信息。

Now moving to additional first quarter guidance. We expect first quarter adjusted EBITDA to be between $215 million and $220 million based on current AUM levels reflecting our market blend, which was up 6% quarter-to-date as of Friday and including net performance fee earnings of $20 million to $25 million.

現在轉向額外的第一季度指導。根據反映我們市場組合的當前 AUM 水平，我們預計第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2.15 億美元至 2.2 億美元之間，截至週五，該水平本季度迄今增長 6%，其中包括 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元的淨績效費用收益。

As a reminder, our first quarter results will not include the impact of Peppertree, which will be reported on a 1-quarter lag beginning in the second quarter and is expected to contribute approximately 1% to 2% of EBITDA on a full year basis.

提醒一下，我們第一季度的業績將不包括 Peppertree 的影響，Peppertree 將在第二季度開始報告一個季度的滯後，預計全年將貢獻約 1% 至 2% 的 EBITDA 。

Turning to specific modeling items. For the fourth quarter, our share of interest expense was $30 million, and we expect it to be at a similar level in the first quarter. Controlling interest depreciation was $2 million, and we expect a similar level for the first quarter.

轉向特定的建模項目。第四季度，我們的利息支出份額為 3000 萬美元，我們預計與第一季度持平。控制性利息折舊為 200 萬美元，我們預計第一季度的水平與此類似。

Our share of reported amortization and impairments was elevated at $78 million for the fourth quarter. We expect it to normalize to approximately $30 million in the first quarter.

第四季度，我們在報告的攤銷和減值中所佔的份額增加到 7800 萬美元。我們預計它在第一季度將正常化至約 3000 萬美元。

Our effective GAAP and cash tax rates were 23% and 21%, respectively, for the fourth quarter. For the first quarter, we expect GAAP and cash tax rates to be at 26% and 17%, respectively.

我們第四季度的有效 GAAP 和現金稅率分別為 23% 和 21%。對於第一季度，我們預計 GAAP 和現金稅率分別為 26% 和 17%。

Intangible-related deferred taxes were $4 million this quarter, and we expect a more normalized $15 million level in the first quarter. Other economic items were $1 million in the fourth quarter, which included the mark-to-market impact on GP and seed capital investments. In the first quarter, excluding any mark-to-market on GP and seed, we do not expect any contribution from other economic items.

本季度與無形資產相關的遞延稅款為 400 萬美元，我們預計第一季度的正常化水平為 1500 萬美元。其他經濟項目在第四季度為 100 萬美元，其中包括按市值計價對 GP 和種子資本投資的影響。在第一季度，不包括 GP 和種子的任何按市值計價，我們預計其他經濟項目不會有任何貢獻。

Our weighted average share count for the fourth quarter was 39.2 million, and we expect our share count to be approximately 38 million for the first quarter, reflecting the impact of the accelerated share repurchase program we entered into at year-end.

我們第四季度的加權平均股數為 3920 萬股，我們預計第一季度的股數約為 3800 萬股，反映了我們在年底實施的加速股票回購計劃的影響。

Finally, turning to balance sheet and capital allocation. While market volatility in 2022 caused many industry participants to take a step back, we continue to focus on executing our strategy. AMG's business model is uniquely advantaged by our ability to deploy capital in the areas of highest growth and return by investing in both existing and new affiliates.

最後，轉向資產負債表和資本配置。雖然 2022 年的市場波動導致許多行業參與者退後一步，但我們繼續專注於執行我們的戰略。 AMG 的商業模式具有獨特的優勢，因為我們能夠通過投資現有和新的附屬公司，將資本部署在增長最快和回報最高的領域。

In 2022, we successfully completed 2 growth investments: Systematica in January and Peppertree in October, both of which further shift our business mix toward areas of client demand. Consistent with our guidance, we also returned $475 million of excess capital through share repurchases.

2022 年，我們成功完成了 2 項增長投資：1 月的 Systematica 和 10 月的 Peppertree，這兩項投資進一步將我們的業務組合轉向客戶需求領域。根據我們的指引，我們還通過股票回購返還了 4.75 億美元的超額資本。

In addition, given our strong liquidity position, which was further enhanced by the Baring transaction closing in the quarter, we entered into a $225 million accelerated share repurchase program that will be executed over the first half of 2023.

此外，鑑於本季度結束的霸菱交易進一步增強了我們強勁的流動性狀況，我們實施了一項 2.25 億美元的加速股票回購計劃，該計劃將在 2023 年上半年執行。

With respect to the Baring transaction, we have now realized nearly $600 million in total gross proceeds in cash, including monetizing 2/3 of our freely tradable EQT shares. And many of the capital actions I just mentioned, including Peppertree, our increased 2022 share repurchases and the ASR, were funded with that capital.

關於霸菱交易，我們現在已經實現了近 6 億美元的現金總收益，包括將我們 2/3 的可自由交易的 EQT 股票貨幣化。我剛才提到的許多資本行動，包括 Peppertree、我們增加的 2022 年股票回購和 ASR，都是由該資本提供資金的。

Given our strong balance sheet and free cash flow profile, we entered the year with significant capacity to both execute on our growth strategy and return excess capital to shareholders through repurchases, evaluating all investment decisions under a disciplined common framework. For the full year 2023, we expect share repurchases of at least $425 million, inclusive of the $225 million ASR.

鑑於我們強勁的資產負債表和自由現金流狀況，我們以強大的能力進入了這一年，既可以執行我們的增長戰略，也可以通過回購將多餘的資本返還給股東，在一個有紀律的共同框架下評估所有投資決策。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計股票回購至少為 4.25 億美元，其中包括 2.25 億美元的 ASR。

The ultimate level of repurchases will be dependent on market conditions and new investment activity. And as Jay mentioned, we believe new investment activity can increase in the current environment, given AMG's unique partnership solution set.

回購的最終水平將取決於市場狀況和新的投資活動。正如 Jay 提到的那樣，鑑於 AMG 獨特的合作夥伴解決方案集，我們相信在當前環境下新的投資活動會增加。

The momentum in our business demonstrates the diversity and strength of our affiliates and the stability inherent in our model. The changing environment represents a significant opportunity for both our business and our affiliates to deliver differentiated performance.

我們業務的發展勢頭證明了我們附屬公司的多樣性和實力，以及我們模式固有的穩定性。不斷變化的環境為我們的業務和我們的附屬公司提供了提供差異化績效的重要機會。

In this new market environment, we are confident in our positioning and in our ability to deploy capital to continue to generate earnings growth and shareholder value.

在這個新的市場環境中，我們對我們的定位和部署資本以繼續創造收益增長和股東價值的能力充滿信心。

Now we're happy to take your questions.

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

So maybe we could start with a point, Jay, that you made in your prepared remarks about mixing in investments or prioritizing investments a little bit more for growth versus maybe share repurchase for the year. Maybe help us think through what areas you expect to be relatively more active in. And if the elevated pace of activity does not come through, should we expect you guys to be above the guide on the share buybacks for the year?

因此，傑伊，也許我們可以從一個觀點開始，你在準備好的評論中提到了混合投資或優先考慮投資以實現增長而不是今年的股票回購。也許可以幫助我們思考一下您希望在哪些領域相對更活躍。如果活動步伐加快沒有實現，我們是否應該期望你們在今年的股票回購指南之上？

Yes. Alex, and thank you for your question. So to address the first part on new investments, yes, we do think we're in an environment where we are going to see more activity for us on the new investment side in part because we have seen the market environment change in our favor, both on the buyer side. We see buyers, sort of historical buyers being more inwardly focused as I mentioned on a prior call. And we also see -- after a period of elevated valuations and sort of optimistic business plans, we see more modest valuations and modest expectations. So we think that's a good environment for us to transact.

是的。亞歷克斯，謝謝你的問題。因此，要解決新投資的第一部分，是的，我們確實認為我們處於一個環境中，我們將在新投資方面看到更多活動，部分原因是我們已經看到市場環境發生了對我們有利的變化，雙方都在買方方面。正如我在之前的電話會議上提到的那樣，我們看到買家，一些歷史買家更加關注內心。我們還看到——在經歷了一段時間的高估值和某種樂觀的商業計劃之後，我們看到了更溫和的估值和適度的預期。所以我們認為這是我們進行交易的良好環境。

And I think the last point is that the needs of independent firms, they -- in these periods really could use a helpful support of strategic partner like AMG. And that is something that we see in our dialogue with new affiliate prospects, something that they are really looking for.

我認為最後一點是獨立公司的需求，他們 - 在這些時期真的可以使用像 AMG 這樣的戰略合作夥伴的有益支持。這是我們在與新的聯盟潛在客戶的對話中看到的，也是他們真正想要的。

And then when you kind of take a step back and you look at our current pipeline, we do have a pretty active pipeline. We have a growth strategy to invest in both new and existing affiliates in areas of secular growth. So our new investment pipeline very much reflects areas of secular growth.

然後當你退後一步，看看我們目前的管道時，我們確實有一個非常活躍的管道。我們有一個增長戰略，在長期增長領域投資於新的和現有的分支機構。因此，我們新的投資渠道在很大程度上反映了長期增長的領域。

We've articulated that over some many years now, which we believe to be in areas where long-term demand trends continue to be in our -- in the world and in the economy. And that includes areas such as private markets, liquid alternatives, ESG or sustainable investing, Asia and Wealth. And we continue to see businesses in those areas, and we continue to expect that we will do more investments and capital to that -- to those areas.

多年來，我們已經闡明了這一點，我們認為，在我們的長期需求趨勢繼續存在的領域——在世界和經濟中。這包括私募市場、流動替代品、ESG 或可持續投資、亞洲和財富等領域。我們繼續在這些領域看到企業，我們繼續期望我們將在這些領域進行更多的投資和資本。

But you're also right that to the extent that we are not able to or willing to, I guess, make those investments over the course of this year or let's just say, the next many quarters ahead of us, we will return capital as we have for the last 4 years to shareholders. And when you really take the lens back out, and I think we described it in our prepared remarks, we put $1.3 billion out into growth investments over the last 4 years and $1.9 billion into share repurchases.

但你也是對的，我想，如果我們不能或不願意在今年的過程中進行這些投資，或者讓我們說，接下來的幾個季度，我們將返還資本在過去的 4 年裡，我們向股東提供了幫助。當你真正收回鏡頭時，我想我們在準備好的評論中已經描述過，我們在過去 4 年中投入了 13 億美元用於增長投資，19 億美元用於股票回購。

We would like to see that mix skew more towards growth, but we are prepared to return capital just as we have because we have a disciplined capital allocation framework that governs those new investments. I don't know, Tom, if you can add anything?

我們希望看到這種組合更傾向於增長，但我們準備像現在一樣返還資本，因為我們有一個規範的資本分配框架來管理這些新投資。湯姆，我不知道你是否可以添加任何內容？

Yes. So Alex, look, I think you asked your question in exactly the right way. And as Jay walked through, the first thing we're thinking about with our capital is all of those opportunities for growth investment. And then we think about exactly that, which is what do we then do with our excess capital and how much should we repurchase.

是的。所以亞歷克斯，看，我認為你以完全正確的方式提出了你的問題。當傑伊走過時，我們首先想到的是我們的資本是所有這些增長投資的機會。然後我們仔細考慮這個問題，然後我們將如何處理我們的過剩資本以及我們應該回購多少。

So maybe I'll just spend a couple of minutes on our liquidity position and how we're thinking about repurchases, how the ASR plays in, et cetera. So look, we entered 2023 in a very strong overall liquidity position. And that's aided not only by our strong 2022 financial results but also the proceeds from the Baring transaction.

因此，也許我會花幾分鐘介紹一下我們的流動性狀況以及我們如何考慮回購、ASR 如何發揮作用等等。所以看，我們以非常強勁的整體流動性狀況進入 2023 年。這不僅得益於我們強勁的 2022 年財務業績，還得益於霸菱交易的收益。

And as Jay said, at the highest level, we're positioned to both invest for growth and return significant excess capital to shareholders via repurchases. Importantly, when you think about repurchases, we finished 2022 with about $475 million of repurchases, and then we announced the $225 million accelerated share repurchase program.

正如傑伊所說，在最高層面，我們既可以投資於增長，又可以通過回購向股東返還大量過剩資本。重要的是，當你考慮回購時，我們在 2022 年完成了約 4.75 億美元的回購，然後我們宣布了 2.25 億美元的加速股票回購計劃。

So really, the right way to interpret the ASR is, call it, $25 million of that gets us to our $500 million full year guidance number for 2022. And then we really prefunded $200 million of what we plan to do in 2023.

因此，實際上，解釋 ASR 的正確方法是，其中的 2500 萬美元使我們達到 2022 年 5 億美元的全年指導數字。然後我們真的為我們計劃在 2023 年做的事情預付了 2 億美元。

So as you heard in my prepared remarks, for 2023, we used at least $425 million of repurchases as a good baseline number, which includes the totality of that $225 million ASR that's going to be executed in the first half of the year and then another $200 million in the second half of the year.

因此，正如你在我準備好的發言中聽到的那樣，對於 2023 年，我們使用至少 4.25 億美元的回購作為一個很好的基準數字，其中包括將在今年上半年執行的 2.25 億美元 ASR 的總額，然後是另一個下半年 2 億美元。

But we also had meaningful capacity beyond that to invest for growth in all the areas that Jay was talking about, call it approximately $400 million of balance sheet cash that we've sort of earmarked for growth this year. And that's really even before thinking about using our revolver or taking up our leverage levels. That's just at a consistent leverage level with the liquidity that we have available to us today.

但除此之外，我們還擁有有意義的能力來投資 Jay 談到的所有領域的增長，稱其為我們今年已指定用於增長的大約 4 億美元資產負債表現金。這甚至是在考慮使用我們的左輪手槍或提高我們的槓桿水平之前。這與我們今天可用的流動性處於一致的槓桿水平。

Of course, if those investments don't materialize, we'll likely return more capital to shareholders per our capital allocation strategy and framework. So you should really consider the overall earnings power that comes along with that $400 million of incremental capital that we have to put to work, whether it goes toward growth investments or whether it ends up being a return of capital via repurchases over time.

當然，如果這些投資沒有實現，我們可能會根據我們的資本分配策略和框架向股東返還更多資本。因此，你真的應該考慮我們必須投入使用的 4 億美元增量資本帶來的整體盈利能力，無論是用於增長投資，還是隨著時間的推移通過回購最終成為資本回報。

Now importantly, the goal is not to push all of that capital out the door in any single quarter or calendar year, but really to ensure that we have the capital when we need it when the highest quality opportunities become available. And that's really the way that we're managing our balance sheet and it's the focus of our overall capital allocation strategy.

現在重要的是，我們的目標不是在任何一個季度或一個日曆年內將所有這些資本都推到門外，而是真正確保我們在獲得最高質量機會時在需要時擁有資本。這確實是我們管理資產負債表的方式，也是我們整體資本配置戰略的重點。

Our next question comes from the line of Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

So I wanted to follow up on Alex's question and just focus more on the investment side. Sometimes it takes the sellers time to digest lower valuations or bids. So in the meantime, are firms generally willing to do transactions at lower valuations now? And are you seeing maybe some great businesses inside of a larger financial firm or another situation where the owner may need to sell over the near term, maybe something more on the distressed side?

所以我想跟進亞歷克斯的問題，更多地關注投資方面。有時賣家需要時間來消化較低的估值或出價。那麼與此同時，企業現在普遍願意以較低的估值進行交易嗎？您是否看到一家較大的金融公司內部可能有一些偉大的企業，或者所有者可能需要在短期內出售的其他情況，也許更多的是陷入困境的一面？

Yes. Thanks, Craig. It's a good question. So one of the things that drives our partnerships over the longest period the last 3 decades is just demographics itself. So there's only so much that firms can do around succession on their own. We think that AMG is the market leader in succession planning with independent firms. And so demographically driven transactions for us is an ongoing supply of new prospects in really any period.

是的。謝謝，克雷格。這是個好問題。因此，在過去 3 年的最長時期內推動我們建立夥伴關係的因素之一就是人口統計本身。因此，圍繞繼任問題，公司自己能做的事情是有限的。我們認為 AMG 是獨立公司繼任計劃的市場領導者。因此，對我們來說，人口驅動的交易實際上是在任何時期都在持續提供新的潛在客戶。

And then to your specific question on valuations, look, valuations have come down. They've been down for several quarters now. And I think the prospect of them going back up is relatively low. So I do think that there is a -- I guess it's maybe more of an acknowledgment that valuations in the sort of growth era, that came to an end with the tightening or kind of in the rearview mirror.

然後關於你關於估值的具體問題，看，估值已經下降了。他們現在已經下降了幾個季度。而且我認為他們回升的可能性相對較低。所以我確實認為有一種 - 我想這可能更多地承認在那種增長時代的估值隨著緊縮或某種後視鏡而結束。

One of the ways that we are able to come together with a new partnership and in getting transactions done is to structure really for multiple outcomes so that if there is substantial growth in a business that we give that credit to the potential partner. And simultaneously, we are protecting ourselves with structures that allow for a level of cash flow in down scenarios. So we do think, again, we have a particular expertise in structuring for multiple outcomes, which allows us to bring our sort of unique model to the table and get transactions done.

我們能夠建立新的合作夥伴關係並完成交易的方法之一是真正為多種結果構建結構，這樣，如果業務有實質性增長，我們就會將其歸功於潛在合作夥伴。同時，我們正在通過允許在低迷情況下保持一定水平現金流的結構來保護自己。因此，我們再次認為，我們在為多種結果構建結構方面具有特殊的專業知識，這使我們能夠將我們獨特的模型帶到桌面上並完成交易。

I guess the last thing I would say, and I enjoy saying this, is that when you partner for businesses and you are not buying 100% because, as you know, in all cases, we leave a substantial amount of equity in the hands of our partners. Then really what you're saying is the vast majority of my growth is ahead of me. And therefore, the emphasis on upfront valuations are a little bit lower in our transactions.

我想我要說的最後一件事，而且我喜歡這樣說，是當你與企業合作並且你不是 100% 購買時，因為如你所知，在所有情況下，我們都會將大量股權留在我們的伙伴。那麼你真正要說的是我的大部分成長都在我之前。因此，在我們的交易中，對前期估值的重視程度有所降低。

So we don't see that as an impediment in getting new investments done in this environment. I think the key question is what are the long-term demand trends, and where are we going to make those investments because that ultimately is going to be the indicator of success of those new investments over time.

因此，我們不認為這是在這種環境下進行新投資的障礙。我認為關鍵問題是長期需求趨勢是什麼，我們將在哪裡進行這些投資，因為隨著時間的推移，這最終將成為這些新投資成功的指標。

And as I've mentioned in my prepared remarks, we do think that a trend is emerging where portfolio allocations are going to need of change as they really got wrong sided with these changing geopolitical and Fed tightening. When we think about our own affiliates and their ability to deliver differentiated return streams, we do think that this rotation to liquid alternatives, in particular, absolute return and differentiated strategies bode well for our current affiliates, but it also reflects on what we have in the pipeline today.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們確實認為正在出現一種趨勢，即投資組合分配需要改變，因為它們在不斷變化的地緣政治和美聯儲緊縮政策方面確實站錯了一邊。當我們考慮我們自己的附屬公司及其提供差異化回報流的能力時，我們確實認為這種向流動替代品的輪換，特別是絕對回報和差異化戰略對我們目前的附屬公司來說是個好兆頭，但這也反映了我們在今天的管道。

We are looking at firms that have -- that very much could benefit from changing allocations in this environment. So when we zoom way out, what I would say is we are looking for secular growth trends that our affiliates and new prospects can take advantage of. We do think that the time is right for us because we have a committed strategy to supporting independent firms throughout their life cycle.

我們正在研究那些可以從這種環境中改變配置中獲益的公司。因此，當我們縮小範圍時，我想說的是我們正在尋找我們的附屬公司和新潛在客戶可以利用的長期增長趨勢。我們確實認為現在是時候了，因為我們有一個堅定的戰略來支持獨立公司的整個生命週期。

And the needs of those firms are not -- have become more acute even in this environment. So we do think that transaction volume could go up from here.

即使在這種環境下，這些公司的需求也沒有變得更加尖銳。所以我們確實認為交易量可能會從這裡上升。

Our next question comes from the line of Bill Katz with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Bill Katz。

Okay. So just maybe migrating on to maybe a flow discussion at this point. So Jay and Tom, you both have spoken about just sort of this ongoing rotation now and sort of rates normalize, what have you. Can you talk a little bit about what's been driving the alternative flows? And if you think that liquid alternatives will accelerate, where do you think that, that volume will come from?

好的。因此，現在也許可以遷移到流程討論。所以 Jay 和 Tom，你們都談到了現在這種持續的輪換和利率正常化，你們有什麼。您能談談是什麼推動了替代流程嗎？如果您認為流動性替代品會加速發展，那麼您認為該數量將從何而來？

Yes. Thanks, Bill. Thanks for your question. I'm going to have Tom steer on that.

是的。謝謝，比爾。謝謝你的問題。我要讓 Tom 指導這件事。

So thanks, Bill. Let me just kind of walk through flows overall, but maybe even before I go there, just to remind everyone, flows obviously are a very important driver of growth in our business over time. But AMG's model is unique, and really flows are just one of the important drivers in our business.

所以謝謝，比爾。讓我大致介紹一下流程，但也許甚至在我去那里之前，只是想提醒大家，隨著時間的推移，流程顯然是我們業務增長的一個非常重要的驅動力。但 AMG 的模式是獨一無二的，真正的流量只是我們業務的重要驅動力之一。

And really in 2022, if you think about the performance that we delivered, it was driven by a number of the other areas that tend to drive growth in our business. Excellent performance driving performance fee earnings, really strong capital allocation and new investments driving growth and then also significant return of capital. So flows obviously are going to be an important output of our strategy, but they really are only one of the components that's important.

實際上，在 2022 年，如果您考慮一下我們提供的性能，就會發現它是由許多其他領域推動的，這些領域往往會推動我們的業務增長。出色的業績推動業績費收入，真正強大的資本配置和新投資推動增長，然後還有顯著的資本回報。因此，流量顯然將成為我們戰略的重要輸出，但它們實際上只是重要的組成部分之一。

So you heard us discuss today, our growth strategy is really driving an evolution of our business mix more towards secular growth areas. That's the way that we think about the business. And as we continue to execute against that strategy, we fully expect to enhance the long-term organic growth and earnings growth profile of the business.

所以你今天聽到我們討論，我們的增長戰略確實推動了我們的業務組合向長期增長領域的演變。這就是我們思考業務的方式。隨著我們繼續執行該戰略，我們完全希望提高業務的長期有機增長和盈利增長狀況。

So I'll touch both on the private market side as well as the liquid alternative side, and I'm sure Jay will want to add some as well. In terms of where we stand, look, first of all, January was a much more constructive start to the year overall for AMG versus the environment that we faced in 2022. And we have a lot of positive setting up for 2023 and beyond.

因此，我將同時涉及私人市場方面和流動性替代方面，我相信傑伊也會想補充一些。就我們的立場而言，首先，與我們在 2022 年面臨的環境相比，1 月份是 AMG 全年更具建設性的開端。我們為 2023 年及以後做了很多積極的準備。

We continue to benefit from the diversity and depth of our private markets affiliates. And they're raising assets across a number of well-positioned strategies, including credit, infrastructure and real estate. And as we said, these flows are incredibly valuable given their fee rate, their long duration and the potential to generate carried interest.

我們繼續受益於我們私人市場分支機構的多樣性和深度。他們正在通過一系列定位良好的策略籌集資產，包括信貸、基礎設施和房地產。正如我們所說，考慮到它們的費率、持續時間長以及產生附帶利益的潛力，這些流量非常有價值。

And I think importantly, most of our private markets AUM is also away from traditional private equity, and that's where you're seeing the most acute impact of the denominator effect on fundraising. So we feel more insulated from that trend, given the unique nature of our private markets affiliates.

而且我認為重要的是，我們大多數私人市場的 AUM 也遠離傳統的私募股權，這就是你看到分母效應對籌資的最嚴重影響的地方。因此，鑑於我們私人市場分支機構的獨特性，我們感覺更不受這種趨勢的影響。

And then on liquid alternative strategies, as you know, we're delivering excellent performance. We're having much more active dialogue with clients around portfolio construction and the value of uncorrelated and diversifying return sources, and that all positions us very well in terms of future flow opportunities.

然後在流動性替代策略上，如你所知，我們正在提供出色的性能。我們正在與客戶圍繞投資組合構建以及不相關和多樣化的回報來源的價值進行更積極的對話，並且所有這些都使我們在未來的流動機會方面處於非常有利的地位。

So to put alternatives together over the course of the last 2 years, we've seen approximately $40 billion of inflows into alternative strategies. And collectively, those now represent more than 40% of our overall EBITDA.

因此，在過去兩年的時間裡，將替代品放在一起，我們已經看到大約 400 億美元的資金流入替代策略。總的來說，這些現在占我們整體 EBITDA 的 40% 以上。

Maybe just to round it out and go through the rest of the business, in U.S. equities, we're very well positioned, given our general tilt toward value strategies and sustainable strategies. And our performance is excellent. 97% of our U.S. fundamental value strategies are outperforming their benchmark on the 3-year period. And looking ahead, we expect these categories to be even more in focus with clients.

考慮到我們總體上傾向於價值戰略和可持續戰略，也許只是為了完成它並通過其餘業務，在美國股票中，我們處於非常有利的位置。而且我們的表現非常出色。我們 97% 的美國基本價值策略在 3 年期間的表現優於基準。展望未來，我們預計這些類別將更加受到客戶的關注。

Look, obviously, global equities, the second half of the year was difficult in 2022 as we saw a pretty significant derisking across the industry. And in a sense, you could say that what happened in global equities really is clouding some of the progress that we've been making overall in terms of the underlying flow profile of the business at AMG.

顯然，全球股市在 2022 年下半年很艱難，因為我們看到整個行業都出現了相當大的去風險化。從某種意義上說，你可以說全球股市發生的事情確實給我們在 AMG 業務的基本流量方面取得的整體進展蒙上了陰影。

That said, we remain well positioned in terms of the long-term track records at our global equity affiliates and just the quality of those businesses. And then lastly, on multi-asset and fixed income, we saw fourth quarter inflows in our wealth businesses. Those have been a long-term source of stability and growth. And we're also seeing some very positive signs out of box in fixed income early in 2023.

也就是說，我們在全球股票附屬公司的長期業績記錄以及這些業務的質量方面仍然處於有利地位。最後，在多資產和固定收益方面，我們看到第四季度資金流入我們的財富業務。這些一直是穩定和增長的長期來源。我們還看到 2023 年初固定收益方面出現了一些非常積極的跡象。

So overall, really led by alternatives, a sizable position -- portion of our overall business is both inflowing today as well as well positioned for the future. And we feel very confident in our ability to drive long-term organic growth.

因此，總的來說，真正由替代品引領，一個相當大的位置——我們整體業務的一部分既在今天流入，也在為未來做好準備。我們對推動長期有機增長的能力充滿信心。

Yes, Bill, let me just editorialize a bit further on Tom's remarks. The second half of 2022, it was very much a risk-off environment. And we think it masks some of the underlying trends in our business. It really hit our long-only equities part of our business. And as Tom said, in January and early February, we've seen that really abate. The long-term outflows have really slowed down on that part of our business.

是的，比爾，讓我對湯姆的言論做進一步的社論。 2022 年下半年，這是一個避險環境。我們認為它掩蓋了我們業務中的一些潛在趨勢。它確實打擊了我們業務中的多頭股票部分。正如湯姆所說，在 1 月和 2 月初，我們已經看到這種情況真正減弱了。長期資金外流確實減緩了我們這部分業務的發展。

And clearly, the liquid alternatives and private markets have been driving our organic growth on the other side. Ultimately, or really for us, flows are really just an output of our strategy. We have high conviction that if we invest in areas of secular growth, the new and existing affiliates, that we will ultimately see the flows follow.

顯然，流動性替代品和私人市場一直在推動我們的有機增長。最終，或者實際上對我們而言，流量實際上只是我們戰略的輸出。我們堅信，如果我們投資於長期增長的領域，新的和現有的分支機構，我們最終會看到資金流隨之而來。

And then as Tom said, really, what we're trying to do is grow our cash flow and our economic earnings per share, which we did in 2022 and in 2021. And the drivers are multiple drivers because AMG's model is unique. We can see those drivers come from affiliate performance. We can see it come from flows. We can see it come from new investments or we can see the compounding effect of share repurchases.

然後正如湯姆所說，實際上，我們正在努力做的是增加我們的現金流和每股經濟收益，我們在 2022 年和 2021 年都這樣做了。驅動因素是多個驅動因素，因為 AMG 的模式是獨一無二的。我們可以看到這些驅動因素來自聯盟的表現。我們可以看到它來自流量。我們可以看到它來自新的投資，或者我們可以看到股票回購的複合效應。

And in this period that I just described, we got 3 of those 4 drivers. And they were pretty significant to our earnings profile.

在我剛剛描述的這段時間裡，我們得到了這 4 個驅動程序中的 3 個。它們對我們的收益狀況非常重要。

Our next question comes from the line of Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dan Fannon 與 Jefferies 的對話。

Wanted to follow up on the liquid alternative book, but focus on quant. And given the success and performance improvements you've seen over the last basically 2 years, do you think that we're going to be talking about this business or remove the ex-quant discussion in 2023? And maybe talk about the discussions you're having with clients and how you think about gross sales for that portion of your business in kind of this year or next. Yes, that would be helpful.

想跟進 liquid 替代書，但專注於 quant。鑑於您在過去基本上 2 年中看到的成功和性能改進，您認為我們會在 2023 年討論這項業務還是取消前量化討論？也許可以談談您與客戶的討論，以及您如何看待今年或明年這部分業務的總銷售額。是的，那會很有幫助。

Yes. Dan, thanks for your question. Good question. Yes. So we have had outstanding performance in liquid alternative strategies. And I think you're right to point it out, we've been reporting kind of an ex-quant flow profile for some time. It's a slightly more nuanced situation because some of that quant was long-only global equities.

是的。丹，謝謝你的問題。好問題。是的。因此，我們在流動性替代策略方面表現出色。我認為你指出這一點是正確的，我們已經報告了一段時間前的量化流量概況。這是一個稍微微妙的情況，因為其中一些量化交易只做多全球股票。

And so to my prior point, we are still seeing some risk off in those strategies albeit that pie -- part of the pie has gotten smaller. So it very well could be that we kind of just go back to straight up flows in 2023 because the liquid alternative strategies of the quant side have just excellent performance. And we do think that they've been underrepresented in client allocations. So we do think that's going to change.

因此，就我之前的觀點而言，我們仍然看到這些策略存在一些風險，儘管餡餅——餡餅的一部分已經變小了。因此，很可能我們會在 2023 年回到直線上升的狀態，因為量化方的流動替代策略表現出色。我們確實認為他們在客戶分配中的代表性不足。所以我們確實認為這會改變。

Now look, it takes some time for those allocations to change. And if just conversations and activity at those affiliates are an indicator, we're having an increased level of searches, increased level of conversations around putting more of these strategies in the portfolios.

現在看，這些分配需要一些時間才能改變。如果只是這些附屬公司的對話和活動是一個指標，那麼我們的搜索水平就會提高，圍繞將更多這些策略放入投資組合的對話水平也會提高。

And we think portfolios need these types of strategies. Clearly, if you were underallocated to liquid alts, especially in absolute return, trend, macro, multi-strat in 2022, your portfolio performed much worse than those that had a fair allocation to the strategy.

我們認為投資組合需要這些類型的策略。顯然，如果您在 2022 年對流動性另類投資的配置不足，尤其是在絕對回報、趨勢、宏觀、多策略方面，您的投資組合的表現將比那些對該策略進行公平配置的投資組合差得多。

So we do see in '23 and in '24 increasing organic flows into liquid alts. And our performance is just really good, almost categorically. Systematica, AQR, Capula, Garda, Winton, they all had excellent performance in '22. Most of those firms had great performance in '21. And their 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year numbers all look very competitive with either their benchmarks or even markets like the S&P. So we do see increasing organic growth into these strategies.

因此，我們確實在 23 年和 24 年看到越來越多的有機物流入液體替代品。我們的表現非常好，幾乎是絕對的。 Systematica、AQR、Capula、Garda、Winton，他們在 22 年都有出色的表現。這些公司中的大多數在 21 世紀都表現出色。他們的 1 年期、3 年期、5 年期和 10 年期數據看起來與他們的基準甚至標準普爾等市場相比都非常有競爭力。因此，我們確實看到這些戰略的有機增長不斷增加。

And not to lessen the discussion around private markets, which are also in our alternatives bucket, when you think about private markets, we have a number of sort of specialty areas within private markets, including Peppertree, which was a business that we made investment late last year in the communications infrastructure as well as a private debt manager in Comvest and a number of other high-quality businesses in that segment, which really are still experiencing significant growth and significant fundraising.

並且不要減少圍繞私募市場的討論，私募市場也在我們的替代方案中，當你考慮私募市場時，我們在私募市場中有許多專業領域，包括 Peppertree，這是我們投資較晚的業務去年在通信基礎設施以及 Comvest 的私人債務經理和該領域的許多其他優質企業中，這些企業確實仍在經歷顯著增長和大量籌資。

So just generally, our alternatives area, which comes with higher fees, as Tom said, in many cases, longer lockups, the chance for performance fees, we see that driving our growth going forward.

所以總的來說，我們的替代品領域，正如湯姆所說，在許多情況下，更高的費用，更長的鎖定時間，績效費用的機會，我們看到這推動了我們的增長。

And I'll maybe, Dan, just add one statistic to that just to give you a sense. And this incorporates not just sort of quant, but our overall absolute return performance fee eligible book, just to give you a sense of kind of the evolution we've seen over the last couple of years.

丹，我也許會在其中添加一個統計數據，只是為了給你一個感覺。這不僅包含某種定量分析，還包含我們的整體絕對回報績效費合格書籍，只是為了讓您了解我們在過去幾年中看到的那種演變。

The AUM today that we have in eligible absolute return strategies that are above high watermarks has increased by more than 50% since the beginning of 2020. So when we think about not only the performance fee earnings growth opportunity but also the organic growth opportunity, just a more and more sizable portion of our overall book is in a position to deliver those types of characteristics over time.

自 2020 年初以來，我們今天在高水位線以上的合格絕對回報策略中的 AUM 增加了 50% 以上。因此，當我們不僅考慮績效費用收入增長機會，而且考慮有機增長機會時，只是隨著時間的推移，我們整本書中越來越多的部分能夠提供這些類型的特徵。

And you really do get that network effect where excellent performance is driving performance fee earnings, excellent performance is driving new conversations with clients and flows. And we really do think that, that's a real positive for us overall.

你確實得到了網絡效應，其中出色的表現推動了績效費收入，出色的表現推動了與客戶和流量的新對話。我們真的認為，這對我們整體來說是一個真正的積極因素。

And as you know, and I know you know this, Dan, is that as you get new clients, you start the new clock with performance and performance fees. And so there is kind of a positive upward cycle that you have with the idea that above high watermark new clients, we get the opportunity for even more performance fee opportunity, which is what we're seeing in our business today.

正如你所知，我知道你知道這一點，丹，當你獲得新客戶時，你會以績效和績效費用開始新的時鐘。因此，你有一種積極的向上循環，即高於高水位線的新客戶，我們有機會獲得更多的績效費用機會，這就是我們今天在我們的業務中看到的。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Apologies. I'm going to give you a multipart question if that's okay. Just linking a few things together. So first of all, obviously, really strong 2022 relative to the asset manager peers with positive EPS growth. So if you can talk about maybe what's your confidence level in repeating that.

道歉。如果可以的話，我會給你一個多部分的問題。只是把一些東西聯繫在一起。因此，首先，很明顯，相對於 EPS 正增長的資產管理公司同行，2022 年真的很強勁。所以，如果你能談談，也許你對重複這一點的信心水平是多少。

You're probably going to have headwinds for the asset manager industry overall. It's going to make positive EPS challenging for the industry. Maybe just talk about sort of what your confidence is in having another year of positive EPS growth.

整個資產管理行業可能會遇到不利因素。這將使積極的 EPS 對行業構成挑戰。也許只是談談你對 EPS 又一年實現正增長的信心。

And if we think about maybe the headwinds obviously being on the guidance on the performance fee side being a little lower, is that mostly driven by private capital monetizations being down? And then as you think about new investments, are you more geared towards illiquid alternatives or liquid alternatives?

而且，如果我們考慮一下，業績費方面的指導意見可能會出現明顯的不利因素，這是否主要是由私人資本貨幣化下降推動的？然後當你考慮新的投資時，你更傾向於非流動性替代品還是流動性替代品？

Yes. Thanks, Brian. Actually, we might be able to wrap a lot of that into letting Tom give you some more specifics around the guidance that we gave on the call. So I'm going to let Tom do that here in 1 second.

是的。謝謝，布萊恩。實際上，我們或許可以將其中的很多內容包裝成讓 Tom 圍繞我們在電話會議上提供的指導向您提供更多細節。所以我要讓 Tom 在 1 秒內完成。

Just expressing confidence, I mean, we do have a level of conservatism in the guidance that we described. Even around performance fees, the way we come up with that is we look at the amount that's above high watermark. We look at the types of businesses that we have. And we took kind of the performance assumption way down.

只是表達信心，我的意思是，我們在我們描述的指南中確實有一定程度的保守主義。即使在績效費用方面，我們提出的方法是查看高於高水位線的金額。我們著眼於我們擁有的業務類型。我們降低了性能假設。

And of course, in 2022, the performance was excellent. And in 2021, it was excellent. So candidly, the level of conservatism just in our performance fee estimate is there. In fact, over the last 2 years, you could argue that we've actually reduced the amount of performance that we need to generate this level that Tom has given you guidance.

當然，在 2022 年，表現非常出色。而在 2021 年，它非常出色。坦率地說，我們的績效費用估算中的保守主義水平就在那裡。事實上，在過去的 2 年裡，您可能會爭辯說我們實際上已經減少了達到 Tom 給您的指導水平所需的性能量。

So it's probably more conservative than last year or the year before. So there's upside there. There's also upside in capital, which Tom will describe, but we can't prescribe exactly when that capital will go out, and that's why we haven't sort of put it into our guidance.

所以它可能比去年或前年更保守。所以那裡有好處。資本也有上升空間，湯姆將對此進行描述，但我們無法準確規定資本何時會流出，這就是為什麼我們沒有將其納入我們的指導方針。

Those 2 things really are the 2 positive drivers. How that plays out this year as well as things like market beta will really determine our growth in 2023 over 2022, but we're still very optimistic sitting here in February that we'll be able to do that. And then, Tom, maybe you can give more specifics.

這兩件事確實是兩個積極的驅動因素。今年的表現以及市場貝塔之類的事情將真正決定我們在 2023 年比 2022 年的增長，但我們仍然非常樂觀地坐在 2 月份，認為我們能夠做到這一點。然後，湯姆，也許你可以提供更多細節。

Yes. Brian, thanks for your question. So maybe what I'll do is I'll just walk through sort of how you would bridge our first quarter guidance through to the full year conceptually. And obviously, there are a number of assumptions that you'll want to make as you do that.

是的。布賴恩，謝謝你的問題。因此，也許我要做的是，我將介紹一下如何從概念上將我們的第一季度指導與全年聯繫起來。顯然，在執行此操作時，您需要做出許多假設。

But before I do that, I know in our fourth quarter numbers, there were a fair amount of moving parts, in particular, around the Baring gain as well as the gain on the EQT shares that we monetized, both the mark-to-market as well as the realized gains. I did state this in my prepared remarks, but just to reiterate, none of those gains are included in our EBITDA or our economic earnings per share. We've excluded all of that. So just to be clear, those are clean numbers, excluding the sizable gains on both Baring as well as the EQT shares.

但在我這樣做之前，我知道在我們第四季度的數字中，有相當多的變動部分，特別是圍繞巴林收益以及我們貨幣化的 EQT 股票的收益，都是按市值計價的以及已實現的收益。我在準備好的發言中確實說過這一點，但只是重申一下，這些收益均未包含在我們的 EBITDA 或每股經濟收益中。我們已經排除了所有這些。所以要明確一點，這些都是乾淨的數字，不包括霸菱和殷拓股票的可觀收益。

So to address your question, if you use our first quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $215 million to $220 million as a starting point, and then net guidance includes $20 million to $25 million of performance fee earnings for the fourth quarter -- first quarter, that really gets you to a run rate number for management fee EBITDA, which is a pretty good starting point in terms of thinking about the year based on the run rate of where the business stands today.

因此，為了解決您的問題，如果您使用我們第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 指導範圍 2.15 億美元至 2.2 億美元作為起點，然後淨指導包括第四季度 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元的績效費用收入 - 第一季度，這真的讓你得到了管理費 EBITDA 的運行率數字，這是一個很好的起點，可以根據今天的業務運行率來考慮這一年。

Then you can factor in the impact of Peppertree starting in the second quarter and contributing something in the range of 2% to EBITDA on an annualized basis. And then, of course, you'll make your own assumptions about beta and flows, and that will get you to a full year management fee EBITDA estimate.

然後你可以考慮從第二季度開始的 Peppertree 的影響，並在年化基礎上為 EBITDA 貢獻 2% 左右。然後，當然，您將對貝塔和流量做出自己的假設，這將使您獲得全年管理費 EBITDA 估算。

And then we gave you guidance on the performance fee earnings range for the full year of $125 million to $175 million. And Jay talked about some of the general conservatism baked into that at this early stage of the year, so you can add that to get to sort of a number or a range for a full year number.

然後我們為您提供了全年 1.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元的績效費收入範圍的指導。傑伊談到了今年年初融入其中的一些普遍保守主義，因此您可以將其相加以獲得全年數字的數字或範圍。

But importantly, as I mentioned in a previous question and as Jay mentioned as well, that number only partially reflects the full earnings power of the business, given it excludes an incremental $400 million or so of capital that we have today to deploy toward growth investments. And that excludes any incremental leverage or tapping our revolver. That's really just upside to our numbers in terms of earnings power.

但重要的是，正如我在上一個問題中提到的以及 Jay 也提到的那樣，該數字僅部分反映了企業的全部盈利能力，因為它不包括我們今天用於增長投資的 4 億美元左右的增量資本.這不包括任何增量槓桿或利用我們的左輪手槍。就盈利能力而言，這確實比我們的數字要好。

And if we aren't able to allocate that capital toward growth over time, you should expect us to return more of that excess capital to shareholders through repurchases. But I think regardless of how you think about that $400 million in terms of where it goes, you do want to think about the run rate earnings power of the business depending on how and when that capital is ultimately put to work. And you should factor that into the earnings power of the business over time.

如果我們無法隨著時間的推移將這些資本分配給增長，你應該期望我們通過回購將更多的多餘資本返還給股東。但我認為，無論你如何看待這 4 億美元的去向，你都希望根據資金最終投入使用的方式和時間來考慮企業的運行率盈利能力。隨著時間的推移，您應該將其納入企業的盈利能力。

And I appreciated your opening statement that we do think we're differentiated relative to our peers in part because of the discretionary cash flow nature of our business that we ultimately have a strategy to invest that cash flow into growth. But if not, we have a capital allocation framework to return that to shareholders. That's what's been driving our earnings in a positive direction relative to our peers, and we expect that to continue in 2023.

我很欣賞你的開場白，我們確實認為我們相對於同行有所不同，部分原因是我們業務的可自由支配現金流性質，我們最終有一個戰略將現金流投資於增長。但如果沒有，我們有一個資本分配框架來將其返還給股東。這就是推動我們的收益相對於同行朝著積極方向發展的原因，我們預計這種情況將在 2023 年繼續。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Horgen for any final comments.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。最後請 Horgen 先生髮言。

Thank you all for joining us this morning. As you heard, AMG achieved outstanding results in 2022. And through the execution of our growth strategy and our disciplined capital allocation framework, we are confident in our ability to create significant shareholder value going forward. We look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。正如您所聽到的，AMG 在 2022 年取得了出色的成績。通過執行我們的增長戰略和嚴格的資本配置框架，我們對未來創造重要股東價值的能力充滿信心。我們期待在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。