超微半導體 (AMD) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

AMD 正在討論他們今年的財務狀況以及他們對明年的預期。他們的營業費用佔收入的 26%,當年的營業收入為 63 億美元。他們當年的淨收入為 55 億美元,每股收益為 3.50 美元。他們當年的自由現金流為 31 億美元。

他們預計 2023 年第一季度的收入約為 53 億美元。他們的數據中心和嵌入式部門收入預計將增長,但被較低的客戶端和遊戲部門收入所抵消。該公司預計嵌入式和數據中心來源的收入將在 2023 年增長,而客戶端和遊戲部門的收入預計將下降。

由於不確定的宏觀環境,公司不提供 2023 年全年的具體指導。然而,他們確實預計上半年非 GAAP 毛利率將大致持平,並在下半年擴大。在需求改善之前,季度非 GAAP 運營費用預計將與第四季度持平。預計今年攤薄後的股份數量約為 16.2 億股。 2021 年第一季度,數據中心部門收入同比增長 42%,這主要是由於第三代 EPYC(霄龍)服務器處理器收入的強勁增長以及早期的增長第四代 EPYC(霄龍)處理器。數據中心營業收入為 4.44 億美元,佔收入的 27%,而一年前為 3.69 億美元,佔收入的 32%。更高的營業收入主要是由收入增加推動的,部分被更高的研發投資所抵消,以支持收入增長。

客戶端部門的收入為 9.03 億美元,同比下降 51%,原因是 PC 市場疲軟導致處理器出貨量減少以及整個 PC 供應鏈的庫存大幅調整。客戶運營虧損為 1.52 億美元,而一年前的運營收入為 5.3 億美元,佔收入的 29%,這主要是由於收入下降。

遊戲部門的收入為 16 億美元,同比下降 7%,原因是遊戲圖形收入減少,部分被半客戶產品銷售額增加所抵消。博彩營業收入為 2.66 億美元,佔收入的 16%,而一年前為 4.07 億美元,佔收入的 23%。減少的主要原因是圖形收入減少。

嵌入式部門的收入為 14 億美元,比一年前增加了 13 億美元,這主要是由於包含了 Xilinx 嵌入式收入。嵌入式營業收入為 6.99 億美元,佔收入的 50%,而一年前為 1800 萬美元,佔收入的 25%,這主要是由於賽靈思的加入。 2022 年第四季度,在數據中心和嵌入式部門的推動下,AMD 實現了強勁的增長和創紀錄的盈利能力。數據中心部門的收入同比增長 42% 至 17 億美元,這主要得益於雲提供商越來越多地採用其 EPYC(霄龍)處理器。在雲服務需求不斷增長的推動下,該公司預計這一領域將持續增長。在嵌入式領域,收入在公司收購 Xilinx 後有所增加。在對嵌入式系統不斷增長的需求的推動下,該公司預計這一領域也將持續增長。該公司最大的增長機會之一是人工智能,它仍處於改變許多行業的早期階段。該公司對這個機會感到興奮,並準備好利用其廣泛的 CPU、GPU 和自適應加速器產品組合來利用它。

本季度,由於金融服務公司對其新推出的針對低延遲交易進行了優化的 Alveo X3 系列板的強勁需求,該公司的 Xilinx 數據中心和網絡產品的銷售額創下歷史新高。在供應鏈改善和持續需求的推動下,其 Pensando DPU 的銷售額也較上一季度大幅增長。

GPU 銷售額與一年前相比大幅下降,當時該公司的出貨量支持構建多台 Instinct MI250 加速器超級計算機。 1 月,該公司預覽了其下一代 MI300 加速器,該加速器將用於雲數據中心的大型模型 AI 應用程序,並已被選中為勞倫斯利弗莫爾國家實驗室的 2+ exaflop El Capitan exascale 超級計算機提供動力。

與目前為世界上最快的超級計算機提供動力的 MI250 加速器相比,MI300 將成為業界首款將 CPU、GPU 和內存結合到單一集成設計中的數據中心芯片,為 HPC 和 AI 工作負載提供 8 倍的性能和 5 倍的效率。 MI300 有望在本季度晚些時候開始向主要客戶提供樣品,並於 2023 年下半年推出。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and welcome to the AMD Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Ruth Cotter. Please go ahead, Ruth.

    大家好,歡迎來到 AMD 2022 財年第四季度和全年財務業績電話會議和網絡直播。 (操作員說明)提醒一下,正在錄製此會議。現在我很高興將電話轉給 Ruth Cotter。請繼續,露絲。

  • Ruth Cotter - SVP of Marketing, HR & IR

    Ruth Cotter - SVP of Marketing, HR & IR

  • Thank you, and welcome to AMD's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year-End 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. By now, you should have had the opportunity to review a copy of our earnings press release and accompanying slideware. If you've not reviewed these documents, they can be found on the Investor Relations page of amd.com.

    謝謝,歡迎參加 AMD 的第四季度和 2022 財年末財務業績電話會議。到目前為止,您應該有機會查看我們的收益新聞稿和隨附的幻燈片。如果您尚未查看這些文件,可以在 amd.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到它們。

  • We will refer primarily to non-GAAP financial measures during this call. The full non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliations are available in today's press release and slides posted on our website.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將主要參考非 GAAP 財務指標。完整的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 對賬可在今天的新聞稿和我們網站上發布的幻燈片中找到。

  • Participants in today's conference call are Dr. Lisa Su, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer; Jean Hu, our Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer; and Devinder Kumar, our Executive Vice President. This is a live call and will be replayed via webcast on our website.

    參加今天電話會議的有我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Lisa Su 博士; Jean Hu,我們的執行副總裁、首席財務官兼財務主管;和我們的執行副總裁 Devinder Kumar。這是一個現場通話,將通過我們網站上的網絡直播進行重播。

  • Before we begin, I would like to note that Mark Papermaster, Chief Technology Officer and Executive Vice President, Technology and Engineering, will attend the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Monday, March 6. And our first quarter 2023 quiet time is expected to begin at the close of business on Friday, March 17.

    在我們開始之前,我想指出首席技術官兼技術與工程執行副總裁 Mark Papermaster 將於 3 月 6 日星期一參加摩根士丹利技術、媒體和電信會議。我們 2023 年第一季度的安靜時間是預計將於 3 月 17 日星期五營業結束時開始。

  • Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on current beliefs, assumptions and expectations, speak only as of today and as such, involve risks and uncertainties that could actually cause the results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to the cautionary statement in our press release for more information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

    今天的討論包含基於當前信念、假設和預期的前瞻性陳述,僅針對今天的情況發表,因此涉及風險和不確定性,這些風險和不確定性實際上可能導致結果與我們當前的預期存在重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的警告聲明,了解有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多信息。

  • Now with that, I'll hand the call over to Lisa. Lisa?

    現在,我將把電話交給麗莎。麗莎?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Thank you, Ruth, and good afternoon to all those listening in today. Before discussing our financial results, I wanted to make a few comments about our CFO transition. I'd like to start by thanking Devinder for all of his contributions to AMD over the last 39 years. During his tenure as CFO, we built a strong financial foundation that has enabled AMD's significant growth and success. On a personal note, his partnership and expertise have been invaluable to me. I know I speak for all of AMD when I say we appreciate all he has done for the company and wish him the best in his upcoming retirement.

    謝謝你,露絲,下午好所有聽眾。在討論我們的財務業績之前,我想就我們的 CFO 過渡發表一些評論。首先,我要感謝 Devinder 在過去 39 年中為 AMD 做出的所有貢獻。在他擔任首席財務官期間,我們建立了堅實的財務基礎,使 AMD 取得了顯著的增長和成功。就個人而言,他的伙伴關係和專業知識對我來說非常寶貴。我知道當我說我們感謝他為公司所做的一切並祝他在即將到來的退休生活中一切順利時,我代表 AMD 全體員工發言。

  • I also want to welcome our new EVP and CFO, Jean Hu, to our first AMD earnings call since joining us earlier this month. Jean's more than 14 years of public company CFO experience and proven track record of financial leadership make her an excellent addition to our team. I look forward to working closely with her as we continue to transform and scale our business.

    我還想歡迎我們的新執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Jean Hu 參加我們自本月早些時候加入我們以來的第一次 AMD 財報電話會議。 Jean 超過 14 年的上市公司首席財務官經驗和良好的財務領導記錄使她成為我們團隊的優秀成員。在我們繼續轉型和擴大業務的過程中,我期待與她密切合作。

  • Now turning to the business results. 2022 was a strong year for AMD as we navigated the challenging macro environment to deliver best-in-class growth and record profitability driven by our Embedded and Data Center segments. We also transformed the company. We accelerated our Data Center business and closed our strategic acquisition of Xilinx and Pensando, significantly diversifying our business and strengthening our financial model as our Data Center, Embedded product sales grew from $3.9 billion in 2021 to $10.6 billion in 2022.

    現在轉向業務結果。 2022 年對 AMD 來說是強勁的一年,因為我們在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中渡過了難關,在我們的嵌入式和數據中心部門的推動下實現了一流的增長和創紀錄的盈利能力。我們還改造了公司。我們加快了我們的數據中心業務,並完成了對 Xilinx 和 Pensando 的戰略收購,顯著多元化了我們的業務並加強了我們作為數據中心的財務模型,嵌入式產品銷售額從 2021 年的 39 億美元增長到 2022 年的 106 億美元。

  • Looking at our financial results. Fourth quarter revenue increased 16% year-over-year to $5.6 billion, driven by significant growth in our Embedded and Data Center segments, which accounted for more than 50% of overall revenue in the quarter. On a full year basis, we grew annual revenue 44% to $23.6 billion. We set annual records for revenue, gross margin and profitability driven largely by a 64% increase in our Data Center segment revenue and the strong performance of our Embedded segment following our Xilinx acquisition.

    看看我們的財務業績。第四季度收入同比增長 16% 至 56 億美元,這得益於我們的嵌入式和數據中心部門的顯著增長,這兩個部門佔本季度總收入的 50% 以上。從全年來看,我們的年收入增長了 44%,達到 236 億美元。我們創下了收入、毛利率和盈利能力的年度記錄,這主要是由於我們的數據中心部門收入增長了 64% 以及我們的嵌入式部門在收購 Xilinx 後的強勁表現。

  • Turning to the fourth quarter business results, starting with our Data Center segment. Revenue increased 42% year-over-year to $1.7 billion, led by increased adoption of our EPYC processors by cloud providers. In cloud, sales to North American hyperscalers more than doubled year-over-year as hyperscale customers continued moving more of their internal workloads and external instances to EPYC processors. EPYC processors now power more than 600 publicly available instances globally following the launches of new AMD-based instances from AWS, Microsoft and others in the quarter.

    轉向第四季度的業務結果,從我們的數據中心部門開始。收入同比增長 42% 至 17 億美元,這主要得益於雲供應商對我們 EPYC(霄龍)處理器的採用增加。在雲計算領域,隨著超大規模客戶繼續將更多內部工作負載和外部實例轉移到 EPYC(霄龍)處理器,對北美超大規模企業的銷售額同比增長了一倍多。在 AWS、微軟和其他公司在本季度推出新的基於 AMD 的實例之後,EPYC 處理器現在為全球 600 多個公開可用的實例提供支持。

  • In Enterprise, revenue declined year-over-year as demand slowed based on the macro environment. Against this backdrop, we continue expanding our pipeline and closed a number of new wins in the fourth quarter with Fortune 500 financial services, automotive, technology, energy and aerospace companies. In HPC, growing EPYC processor adoption was highlighted by the number of AMD-powered supercomputers on the latest top 500 list increasing by 38% year-over-year. AMD now powers more than 100 of the world's fastest supercomputers and 15 of the top 20 most energy-efficient supercomputers in the world.

    在企業方面,由於宏觀環境導致需求放緩,收入同比下降。在此背景下,我們繼續擴大我們的渠道,並在第四季度與財富 500 強金融服務、汽車、技術、能源和航空航天公司取得了一些新的勝利。在 HPC 領域,最新 500 強榜單中採用 AMD 技術的超級計算機數量同比增長 38%,突顯了 EPYC(霄龍)處理器採用率的增長。 AMD 現在為 100 多台世界上最快的超級計算機和世界上最節能的 20 台超級計算機中的 15 台提供動力。

  • To build our Data Center leadership, we launched our fourth gen EPYC processors this past November that deliver up to 2x faster performance in cloud, enterprise and HPC applications, and are up to 80% more energy efficient than the competition's most recently announced offerings. We are seeing very strong customer pull for fourth-gen EPYC CPUs, which complement our third-gen offerings with additional performance and capabilities.

    為了建立我們在數據中心的領先地位,我們在去年 11 月推出了第四代 EPYC 處理器,該處理器在雲、企業和 HPC 應用程序中的性能提高了 2 倍,能效比競爭對手最近發布的產品高出 80%。我們看到第四代 EPYC CPU 的客戶需求非常強勁,它以額外的性能和功能補充了我們的第三代產品。

  • Initial cloud deployments are going very well, and we expect to ramp both internal workloads and public instances throughout 2023.

    初始雲部署進展順利,我們預計在整個 2023 年內部工作負載和公共實例都會增加。

  • For Enterprise, there are more than 140 fourth-gen EPYC platforms in development from HPE, Dell, Lenovo, Supermicro and others, an increase of 40% compared to the prior generation.

    對於企業,HPE、戴爾、聯想、超微等公司正在開發的第四代 EPYC 平台超過 140 個,比上一代增長 40%。

  • Now looking at our broader Data Center portfolio. We had record sales of our Xilinx Data Center and networking products in the quarter, led by strong demand from financial services companies for our newly launched Alveo X3 series boards, optimized for low latency trading. Sales of our Pensando DPUs also ramped significantly from the prior quarter, driven by supply chain improvements and continued demand. We are very pleased with the customer reception of the Pensando technology with good long-term growth opportunities as DPUs become a standard component in the next generation of cloud and enterprise data centers.

    現在看看我們更廣泛的數據中心產品組合。由於金融服務公司對我們新推出的針對低延遲交易進行了優化的 Alveo X3 系列板的強勁需求,本季度我們的 Xilinx 數據中心和網絡產品的銷售額創下歷史新高。在供應鏈改善和持續需求的推動下,我們的 Pensando DPU 的銷售額也比上一季度大幅增長。隨著 DPU 成為下一代云和企業數據中心的標準組件,我們對 Pensando 技術獲得良好長期增長機會的客戶接受度感到非常高興。

  • Data center GPU sales were down significantly from a year ago when we had shipments supporting the build-out of multiple Instinct MI250 accelerator supercomputer wins. In January, we previewed our next-generation MI300 accelerator that will be used for large model AI applications in cloud data centers and has been selected to power the 2-plus exaflop El Capitan exascale supercomputer at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories. MI300 will be the industry's first data center chip that combines a CPU, GPU and memory into a single integrated design, delivering 8x more performance and 5x better efficiency for HPC and AI workloads, compared to our MI250 accelerator currently powering the world's fastest super computer. MI300 is on track to begin sampling to lead customers later this quarter and launch in the second half of 2023.

    數據中心 GPU 的銷售額與一年前相比大幅下降,當時我們的出貨量支持多台 Instinct MI250 加速器超級計算機的擴建。 1 月,我們預覽了下一代 MI300 加速器,該加速器將用於雲數據中心的大型模型 AI 應用程序,並已被選中為勞倫斯利弗莫爾國家實驗室的 2+ exaflop El Capitan 百億億級超級計算機提供動力。 MI300 將成為業界首款將 CPU、GPU 和內存結合到單一集成設計中的數據中心芯片,與我們目前為世界上最快的超級計算機提供動力的 MI250 加速器相比,可為 HPC 和 AI 工作負載提供 8 倍的性能和 5 倍的效率。 MI300 有望在本季度晚些時候開始向主要客戶提供樣品,並於 2023 年下半年推出。

  • Turning to our Client segment. Revenue declined 51% year-over-year to $903 million. We continue to ship below PC consumption in the fourth quarter as we focused on further reducing downstream inventory. While overall PC demand remains soft, desktop channel sell-through increased sequentially during the holiday season. We launched our latest generation Ryzen 7000 series notebook processors earlier in January, including our Ryzen 7040 CPU series that deliver leadership performance in battery life and are our first processors to feature Ryzen AI, the industry's only dedicated on-chip AI inference engine in an x86 processor. Ryzen AI is powered by the highly scalable XDNA architecture, which is the first integration of AMD and Xilinx IP, less than a year after closing the acquisition.

    轉向我們的客戶群。收入同比下降 51% 至 9.03 億美元。由於我們專注於進一步減少下游庫存,我們在第四季度的出貨量繼續低於 PC 消費量。雖然整體 PC 需求依然疲軟,但台式機渠道銷量在假期期間環比增長。我們在 1 月初推出了最新一代銳龍 7000 系列筆記本處理器,包括我們的銳龍 7040 CPU 系列,該系列在電池壽命方面具有領先的性能,並且是我們首款採用銳龍 AI 的處理器,銳龍 AI 是業界唯一的 x86 專用片上 AI 推理引擎處理器。 Ryzen AI 由高度可擴展的 XDNA 架構提供支持,這是 AMD 和 Xilinx IP 在完成收購後不到一年的時間里首次集成。

  • We also launched our Ryzen 7045 series CPUs, our first mobile processor based on a chiplet design that delivers significantly higher performance than the competition in gaming and content creation applications. We have more than 250 ultrathin gaming and commercial notebook design wins, spanning our full family of Ryzen 7000 series processors on track to launch this year, an increase of 25% year-over-year with the first notebooks planned to go on sale in February.

    我們還推出了銳龍 7045 系列 CPU,這是我們的第一款基於小芯片設計的移動處理器,在遊戲和內容創建應用程序中提供比競爭對手更高的性能。我們贏得了 250 多款超薄遊戲和商用筆記本電腦設計,涵蓋我們今年即將推出的全系列 Ryzen 7000 系列處理器,同比增長 25%,首批筆記本電腦計劃於 2 月上市銷售.

  • Now turning to our Gaming segment. Revenue declined 7% year-over-year to $1.6 billion as lower gaming graphics sales more than offset higher semi-custom revenue. Semi-custom SoC revenue grew year-over-year as demand for game consoles remained strong during the holidays. Gaming graphics revenue declined year-over-year as we further reduced desktop GPU downstream channel inventory. Channel sell-through of our Radeon RX GPUs increased sequentially, and we launched our high-end Radeon 7900 series GPUs to strong demand based on the performance of our new RDNA 3 architecture and 5-nanometer chiplet design.

    現在轉向我們的遊戲部門。由於遊戲圖形銷售額的下降抵消了半定制收入的增加,收入同比下降 7% 至 16 億美元。半定制 SoC 收入同比增長,因為假期期間對遊戲機的需求依然強勁。由於我們進一步減少桌面 GPU 下游渠道庫存,遊戲圖形收入同比下降。我們的 Radeon RX GPU 的渠道銷量環比增長,我們推出了高端 Radeon 7900 系列 GPU,以滿足基於我們新的 RDNA 3 架構和 5 納米小芯片設計的性能的強勁需求。

  • In January, we announced our first RDNA 3 mobile GPUs that have been selected to power new gaming notebooks from Dell, Alienware, ASUS and others that are on track to begin shipping in the first half of 2023.

    1 月,我們宣布了我們的首款 RDNA 3 移動 GPU,這些 GPU 已被選中用於戴爾、Alienware、華碩和其他公司的新遊戲筆記本電腦,這些筆記本電腦有望在 2023 年上半年開始發貨。

  • Looking at our Embedded segment. Revenue increased significantly year-over-year to a record $1.4 billion. We had record sales across a number of our Embedded markets, including communications, automotive, industrial and health care, aerospace and defense, and test and emulation. In communications, we saw particular strength with expanded 5G wireless installations in India and ongoing wired infrastructure deployments with Tier 1 communications providers. Automotive growth was driven by the ramps of new Ford camera, 4D radar and infotainment wins across multiple customers. We recently announced multiple new wins for our automotive grade Zynq UltraScale+ platforms with some of the largest vehicle equipment suppliers including Aisin next-generation Automated Parking Assist system and DENSO's next-generation LiDAR platform that can improve the resolution required for autonomous driving and other industrial machine vision applications by 20x.

    看看我們的嵌入式部分。收入同比大幅增長,達到創紀錄的 14 億美元。我們在多個嵌入式市場的銷售額創下歷史新高,包括通信、汽車、工業和醫療保健、航空航天和國防以及測試和仿真。在通信方面,我們看到了印度擴大 5G 無線安裝以及與一級通信提供商正在進行的有線基礎設施部署的特別優勢。汽車行業的增長是由福特新相機、4D 雷達和信息娛樂系統贏得多個客戶的推動。我們最近宣布我們的汽車級 Zynq UltraScale+ 平台贏得了一些最大的汽車設備供應商的多項新勝利,包括 Aisin 下一代自動泊車輔助系統和 DENSO 的下一代 LiDAR 平台,可以提高自動駕駛和其他工業機器所需的分辨率視覺應用程序提高 20 倍。

  • We also continued to see strong growth with industrial and health care, aerospace and defense and tested and emulation customers in the quarter, driven by SAM expansion for our leadership-adaptive SoCs, new design win ramps and increased supply across multiple nodes.

    我們還繼續看到本季度工業和醫療保健、航空航天和國防以及測試和仿真客戶的強勁增長,這得益於我們的領導自適應 SoC 的 SAM 擴展、新設計贏得斜坡以及跨多個節點的供應增加。

  • Taking a step back, as we approach the 1-year anniversary of the closing of our Xilinx acquisition next month, the integration has gone extremely well, and our Embedded business has become a major growth driver for AMD, strengthening our financial model and significantly diversifying our business. In addition, we are seeing substantial new revenue synergy opportunities as we combine Xilinx's industry-leading adaptive products and 6,000-plus customers with AMD's expanded breadth of compute products and scale.

    退一步說,下個月我們將迎來收購 Xilinx 的 1 週年紀念日,整合進行得非常順利,我們的嵌入式業務已成為 AMD 的主要增長動力,加強了我們的財務模式並顯著多元化我們的業務。此外,隨著我們將 Xilinx 行業領先的自適應產品和 6,000 多家客戶與 AMD 更廣泛的計算產品和規模相結合,我們看到了巨大的新收入協同機會。

  • In summary, overall, 2022 was a strong year for AMD despite the weak PC market. We significantly grew our Data Center, Embedded and Gaming businesses and executed well across our product portfolio. As we enter 2023, we expect the overall demand environment to remain mixed with the second half stronger than the first half. In the PC market, we are planning for the PC TAM to be down approximately 10% for 2023. We expect to continue to ship below consumption in the first quarter to reduce downstream inventory, which is reflected in our guidance.

    總而言之,儘管 PC 市場疲軟,但 2022 年對 AMD 來說是強勁的一年。我們顯著發展了數據中心、嵌入式和遊戲業務,並在我們的產品組合中表現良好。進入 2023 年,我們預計整體需求環境仍將喜憂參半,下半年將強於上半年。在 PC 市場,我們計劃 2023 年 PC TAM 下降約 10%。我們預計第一季度的出貨量將繼續低於消耗量,以減少下游庫存,這反映在我們的指引中。

  • In our Embedded and Data Center segments, we believe we are well positioned to grow revenue and gain share in 2023 based on the strength of our competitive positioning and leadership high-performance and adaptive product portfolio. We do see elevated levels of inventory with some cloud customers, which will lead to a softer first half and a stronger second half of the year. We continue working very closely with our customers to navigate the dynamic market conditions while also making the right strategic investments to exit the current cycle with an even stronger and more differentiated set of products to drive future growth.

    在我們的嵌入式和數據中心領域,我們相信,基於我們的競爭定位和領先的高性能和自適應產品組合的優勢,我們有能力在 2023 年增加收入和增加份額。我們確實看到一些雲客戶的庫存水平升高,這將導致上半年表現疲軟,下半年表現強勁。我們將繼續與客戶密切合作,應對瞬息萬變的市場環境,同時進行正確的戰略投資,以更強大、更具差異化的產品系列退出當前週期,推動未來增長。

  • Over the next several years, one of our largest growth opportunities is in AI, which is in the early stages of transforming virtually every industry service and product. We expect AI adoption will accelerate significantly over the coming years and are incredibly excited about leveraging our broad portfolio of CPUs, GPUs and adaptive accelerators in combination with our software expertise to deliver differentiated solutions that can address the full spectrum of AI needs in training and inference across cloud, edge and client.

    在接下來的幾年裡,我們最大的增長機會之一是人工智能,它正處於改變幾乎所有行業服務和產品的早期階段。我們預計 AI 的採用將在未來幾年顯著加速,並且非常高興能夠利用我們廣泛的 CPU、GPU 和自適應加速器產品組合,結合我們的軟件專業知識,提供差異化的解決方案,以滿足訓練和推理中的全方位 AI 需求跨雲、邊緣和客戶端。

  • Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jean to provide some additional color on our fourth quarter and full year financial results. Jean?

    現在我想把電話轉給 Jean,為我們的第四季度和全年財務業績提供一些額外的色彩。讓?

  • Jean X. Hu - Executive VP & CFO

    Jean X. Hu - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Lisa, and good afternoon, everyone. 2022 was a very strong year for AMD. We had a record revenue, gross margin, profitability, and we generated significant free cash flow. The year was also highlighted by our strategic acquisitions of Xilinx and Pensando, expanding and diversifying our business portfolio.

    謝謝你,麗莎,大家下午好。 2022 年對 AMD 來說是非常強勁的一年。我們的收入、毛利率、盈利能力均創歷史新高,並且產生了大量的自由現金流。我們對 Xilinx 和 Pensando 的戰略收購也突出了這一年,擴大了我們的業務組合併使其多樣化。

  • Fourth quarter 2022 revenue for $5.6 billion was up 16% from a year ago, driven by higher revenue in the Embedded and Data Center segment, partially offset by lower Client and the Gaming segment revenue. Gross margin was 51%, up 70 basis points from a year ago, primarily driven by richer product mix with higher revenue in Embedded and Data Center segment, partially offset by lower Client segment revenue. Operating expenses were $1.6 billion compared to $1.1 billion a year ago, driven by the inclusion of Xilinx OpEx and additional R&D and go-to-market investments to support the next phase of our revenue growth.

    2022 年第四季度的收入為 56 億美元,比去年同期增長 16%,這是受嵌入式和數據中心部門收入增加的推動,部分被客戶端和遊戲部門收入減少所抵消。毛利率為 51%,比一年前上升 70 個基點,這主要是由於嵌入式和數據中心部門的產品組合更豐富,收入更高,部分被客戶部門收入下降所抵消。運營支出為 16 億美元,而一年前為 11 億美元,這主要是由於 Xilinx 運營支出以及額外的研發和上市投資,以支持我們下一階段的收入增長。

  • Operating income declined $66 million from a year ago to $1.3 billion, and the operating margin was 23%, down from 27% a year ago. Net income was $1.1 billion flat year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share was $0.69 compared to $0.92 per share a year ago, primarily due to lower client operating income.

    營業收入較上年同期下降 6600 萬美元至 13 億美元,營業利潤率為 23%,低於一年前的 27%。淨收入為 11 億美元,同比持平。稀釋後每股收益為 0.69 美元,而一年前為每股 0.92 美元,這主要是由於客戶營業收入下降。

  • Now turning to our reportable segment for the fourth quarter. Starting with the Data Center segment. Revenue was $1.7 billion, up 42% year-over-year, primarily driven by strong growth in third-generation EPYC server processor revenue and the early ramp of fourth-generation EPYC processors. Data center operating income was $444 million or 27% of revenue compared to $369 million or 32% a year ago. Higher operating income was driven primarily by stronger revenue, partially offset by higher R&D investment to support the top line revenue growth.

    現在轉向我們第四季度的可報告部分。從數據中心部分開始。收入為 17 億美元,同比增長 42%,主要受第三代 EPYC 服務器處理器收入的強勁增長和第四代 EPYC 處理器的早期增長推動。數據中心營業收入為 4.44 億美元,佔收入的 27%,而一年前為 3.69 億美元,佔收入的 32%。更高的營業收入主要是由收入增加推動的,部分被更高的研發投資所抵消,以支持收入增長。

  • Client segment revenue was $903 million, down 51% year-over-year due to reduced processor shipments resulting from a weak PC market and significant inventory correction across the PC supply chain. Client operating loss was $152 million compared to operating income of $530 million a year ago or 29% of revenue, primarily due to lower revenue.

    客戶部門收入為 9.03 億美元,同比下降 51%,原因是 PC 市場疲軟導致處理器出貨量減少以及整個 PC 供應鏈的庫存大幅調整。客戶運營虧損為 1.52 億美元,而一年前的運營收入為 5.3 億美元,佔收入的 29%,這主要是由於收入下降。

  • Gaming segment revenue was $1.6 billion, down 7% year-over-year due to lower gaming graphics revenue, partially offset by higher semi-customer product sales. Gaming operating income was $266 million or 16% of revenue compared to $407 million or 23% a year ago. The decrease was primarily due to lower graphics revenue.

    遊戲部門收入為 16 億美元,同比下降 7%,原因是遊戲圖形收入減少,部分被半客戶產品銷售額增加所抵消。博彩營業收入為 2.66 億美元,佔收入的 16%,而一年前為 4.07 億美元,佔收入的 23%。減少的主要原因是圖形收入減少。

  • Embedded segment revenue was $1.4 billion, up $1.3 billion from a year ago, primarily due to the inclusion of Xilinx Embedded revenue. Embedded operating income was $699 million or 50% of revenue compared to $18 million or 25% a year ago, primarily driven by the inclusion of Xilinx.

    嵌入式部門收入為 14 億美元,比一年前增加 13 億美元,這主要是由於包含了 Xilinx 嵌入式收入。嵌入式營業收入為 6.99 億美元,佔收入的 50%,而一年前為 1800 萬美元,佔收入的 25%,這主要是由於賽靈思的加入。

  • Turning to the balance sheet. We have a strong balance sheet with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investment of $5.9 billion at the end of the fourth quarter. During the quarter, we returned $250 million to shareholders through share repurchases. In 2022, we returned a total of $3.7 billion to shareholders which was 119% of free cash flow. We have $6.5 billion in remaining authorization to share repurchases. Free cash flow was $443 million compared to $736 million in the same quarter last year.

    轉向資產負債表。我們擁有強勁的資產負債表,截至第四季度末,現金、現金等價物和短期投資為 59 億美元。本季度,我們通過股票回購向股東返還了 2.5 億美元。 2022 年,我們向股東返還了 37 億美元,佔自由現金流的 119%。我們還有 65 億美元的剩餘股票回購授權。自由現金流為 4.43 億美元,而去年同期為 7.36 億美元。

  • Free cash flow decreased primarily due to higher inventory. Inventory was $3.8 billion, up approximately $402 million from the prior quarter, primarily driven by the inventory increase in advanced process nodes to support the ramp of new products.

    自由現金流量減少主要是由於存貨增加。庫存為 38 億美元,比上一季度增加約 4.02 億美元,這主要是由於先進工藝節點的庫存增加以支持新產品的增加。

  • Now let me turn to our full year financial results. 2022 revenue was $23.6 billion, up 44% year-over-year, driven by increased Embedded, Data Center and the Gaming segment revenue, partially offset by lower Client segment revenue. On our combined AMD and Xilinx company basis, 2022 pro forma revenue was $24.1 billion, up 20% compared to $20.1 billion in 2021. Gross margin was 52%, up 370 basis points from the prior year, primarily driven by richer product mix with higher revenue from Embedded and Data Center segment, partially offset by lower Client segment revenue.

    現在讓我談談我們的全年財務業績。 2022 年收入為 236 億美元,同比增長 44%,這主要受嵌入式、數據中心和遊戲部門收入增加的推動,部分被客戶端部門收入的減少所抵消。以我們合併的 AMD 和 Xilinx 公司為基礎,2022 年預估收入為 241 億美元,比 2021 年的 201 億美元增長 20%。毛利率為 52%,比上年增長 370 個基點,這主要是由於更豐富的產品組合和更高的來自嵌入式和數據中心部門的收入,部分被較低的客戶部門收入所抵消。

  • Operating expenses were 26% of revenue compared to 24% in 2021. 2022 operating income was $6.3 billion, up $2.3 billion, an increase of 56% from a year ago resulting in operating margin of 27% compared to 25% in 2021, primarily driven by higher revenue and gross margin expansion. Net income was $5.5 billion compared to $3.4 billion, up 60% from the prior year. Earnings per share was $3.50 compared to $2.79 for the prior year, primarily due to Data Center growth and addition of Xilinx.

    營業費用佔收入的 26%,而 2021 年為 24%。2022 年營業收入為 63 億美元,增加 23 億美元,同比增長 56%,導致營業利潤率為 27%,而 2021 年為 25%,這主要是由於通過更高的收入和毛利率擴張。淨收入為 55 億美元,而去年同期為 34 億美元,增長 60%。每股收益為 3.50 美元,而去年同期為 2.79 美元,這主要是由於數據中心的增長和 Xilinx 的加入。

  • Full year free cash flow was $3.1 billion, resulting free cash flow margin of 13% for the year. We invested approximately $1 billion in long-term supply chain capacity in 2022 to support our expectations for future revenue growth and increase market share.

    全年自由現金流為 31 億美元,全年自由現金流利潤率為 13%。我們在 2022 年投資了約 10 億美元用於長期供應鏈產能,以支持我們對未來收入增長和增加市場份額的預期。

  • Let me now turn to our financial outlook. Today's outlook is based on current expectations and contemplates the current macro environment. For the first quarter of 2023, we expect revenue to be approximately $5.3 billion, plus or minus $300 million, a decrease of approximately 10% year-over-year and 5% sequentially. Year-over-year Data Center and Embedded segment revenue are expected to grow, offset by lower Client and Gaming segment revenue. Sequentially, Embedded segment revenue is expected to increase. Client and Gaming segment revenue are expected to decline largely consistent with seasonality. Data Center segment revenue is expected to decline due to elevated levels of inventory with some cloud customers.

    現在讓我談談我們的財務前景。今天的展望基於當前的預期,並考慮了當前的宏觀環境。對於 2023 年第一季度,我們預計收入約為 53 億美元,上下浮動 3 億美元,同比下降約 10%,環比下降 5%。數據中心和嵌入式部門收入預計同比增長,但被客戶端和遊戲部門收入下降所抵消。因此,嵌入式部門的收入預計將增加。客戶和遊戲部門的收入預計將下降,這與季節性基本一致。由於一些雲客戶的庫存水平上升,數據中心部門的收入預計將下降。

  • In addition, for Q1 2023, we expect non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 50%; non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $1.6 billion; non-GAAP interest expense, taxes and other to be approximately $146 million based on a 13% effective tax rate. Diluted share count is expected to be approximately 1.62 billion shares. For the full year of 2023, we are not providing specific guidance due to the uncertainty in the macro environment. However, let me provide some color.

    此外,對於 2023 年第一季度,我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率約為 50%;非 GAAP 運營費用約為 16 億美元;根據 13% 的有效稅率,非 GAAP 利息費用、稅收和其他約為 1.46 億美元。攤薄後的股份數量預計約為 16.2 億股。對於 2023 年全年,由於宏觀環境的不確定性,我們不提供具體指引。但是,讓我提供一些顏色。

  • Directionally, we expect Embedded and Data Center annual revenue to grow from 2022 based on the strength of our product portfolio and expected share gains. In addition, we expect Client and the Gaming segment revenue to decline based on the current demand environment. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately flattish in the first half and the expansion in the second half of the year. We expect to manage quarterly non-GAAP operating expenses flat with the fourth quarter until we see the demand environment improves. For modeling purpose, we expect non-GAAP effective tax rate for the year to be 13% and the diluted share count to be approximately 1.62 billion shares.

    從方向上講,我們預計嵌入式和數據中心的年收入將從 2022 年開始增長,這取決於我們產品組合的實力和預期的份額收益。此外,根據當前的需求環境,我們預計客戶和遊戲部門的收入將下降。我們預計上半年非美國通用會計準則毛利率將基本持平,下半年將有所擴張。在我們看到需求環境改善之前,我們預計季度非 GAAP 運營費用將與第四季度持平。出於建模目的,我們預計本年度非 GAAP 有效稅率為 13%,稀釋後的股份數量約為 16.2 億股。

  • In closing, we had a strong year with record revenue and profitability, driven by our leadership in product portfolio and the diversification of our business. Looking forward to 2023, as Lisa mentioned earlier, we'll continue to focus on executing our long-term growth strategy while driving financial discipline and operational excellence. We believe our leadership of products, growing customer momentum and strong financial foundation position us well for long-term profitable growth.

    最後,在我們在產品組合和業務多元化方面的領導地位的推動下,我們度過了強勁的一年,收入和盈利能力創歷史新高。展望 2023 年,正如 Lisa 之前提到的,我們將繼續專注於執行我們的長期增長戰略,同時推動財務紀律和卓越運營。我們相信,我們在產品方面的領先地位、不斷增長的客戶勢頭和強大的財務基礎使我們能夠實現長期盈利增長。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Ruth for a Q&A.

    有了這個,我會把它轉回露絲進行問答。

  • session.

    會議。

  • Ruth Cotter - SVP of Marketing, HR & IR

    Ruth Cotter - SVP of Marketing, HR & IR

  • Thank you, Jean. Operator, if you could poll the audience for questions now, please.

    謝謝你,讓。接線員,如果你現在可以投票給觀眾提問,請。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Matt Ramsay from Cowen.

    (操作員說明)我們今天的第一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Matt Ramsay。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes. First of all, congratulations, Jean. And congrats as well to Devinder. I mean the last 5 years of the company have been remarkable, but I remember all the work you and your finance team did 6 or 7 years ago to keep the foundation stable for what's happened since. So enjoy the retirement.

    是的。首先,祝賀你,讓。並祝賀 Devinder。我的意思是,公司過去 5 年的表現非常出色,但我記得你和你的財務團隊在 6 或 7 年前為保持基礎穩定所做的所有工作,以應對此後發生的事情。所以享受退休生活。

  • My first question, Lisa, is just about the drivers of 2023. You guys talked in the prepared script about all the different crosscurrents that are kind of going on right now versus the strength of your portfolio versus some inventory digestion in the Data Center space and obviously, what's going on in the PC market. But I've gotten about a zillion versions of the same question tonight, which was do you think the company can grow for the year 2023 overall? And if you could just kind of walk us through the drivers of the business as we work through the year.

    麗莎,我的第一個問題是關於 2023 年的驅動因素。你們在準備好的劇本中談到了現在正在發生的所有不同的逆流、你們的投資組合的實力、數據中心領域的一些庫存消化以及顯然,PC 市場正在發生什麼。但今晚我收到了同一個問題的無數個版本,你認為公司在 2023 年總體上可以增長嗎?如果您能在我們全年工作時向我們介紹業務的驅動因素。

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Yes, absolutely, Matt. Thanks for the question. So there are lots of puts and takes in 2023, and we want to give you kind of some of the drivers. Our largest growth driver is certainly the Data Center. We are very positioned well with our product portfolio. We just launched our Genoa 4th Gen EPYC. We also have Bergamo coming this year as well.

    是的,絕對,馬特。謝謝你的問題。所以 2023 年有很多投入和投入,我們想給你一些驅動因素。我們最大的增長動力當然是數據中心。我們的產品組合定位非常好。我們剛剛推出了 Genoa 第四代 EPYC(霄龍)。我們今年也有貝加莫。

  • When we talk to our cloud customers, what they're telling us is they appreciate the execution of our road map. And we have an opportunity to move more workloads to AMD as we go through the year. So we feel very good about our product positioning.

    當我們與我們的雲客戶交談時,他們告訴我們的是他們欣賞我們路線圖的執行。隨著這一年的過去,我們有機會將更多的工作負載轉移到 AMD。所以我們對我們的產品定位感覺非常好。

  • As we mentioned in the prepared remarks, coming off of a very strong 2022, there is some inventory at some of the cloud customers. And so we are expecting a softer first half and then a stronger second half, but we feel very good about our market share position and opportunity to grow with Data Center. Also on the Embedded side, I would say we have a very strong portfolio there. The Xilinx business has done very well in 2022. It's a diversified set of markets. We see strength in a number of the end markets. And so we think that's also a grower for AMD.

    正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的,在非常強勁的 2022 年之後,一些雲客戶有一些庫存。因此,我們預計上半年會更疲軟,然後下半年會更強勁,但我們對我們的市場份額地位和與數據中心一起增長的機會感到非常滿意。同樣在嵌入式方面,我想說我們在那裡有非常強大的產品組合。 Xilinx 業務在 2022 年表現非常出色。這是一個多元化的市場。我們看到許多終端市場的實力。所以我們認為這也是 AMD 的成長者。

  • On the other side, our Client and Gaming businesses, we believe, will decline. We have made good progress. When we look at the PC markets in the second half of the year of 2022, we were really trying to rebalance inventory, and I think we made progress exiting Q4. We're still expecting to ship below consumption in the first quarter and then sort of go from there. Our product portfolio is strong. We think there's an opportunity for growth as we go into the second half of the year. But we think overall for the year, client will decline just given the TAM.

    另一方面,我們相信我們的客戶和博彩業務將會下滑。我們取得了很好的進展。當我們審視 2022 年下半年的 PC 市場時,我們確實在努力重新平衡庫存,我認為我們在第四季度取得了進展。我們仍然預計第一季度的出貨量將低於消費量,然後從那裡開始。我們的產品組合很強大。我們認為進入下半年會有增長的機會。但我們認為,就今年而言,總體而言,僅考慮到 TAM,客戶就會下降。

  • And then on the Gaming segment, again, we're coming off of a very strong 2022. And so console demand has been actually quite strong. And given where we are in the cycle, we would expect gaming to be down on a year-over-year basis. But overall, I think lots of puts and takes, but we're positive on what we can do in terms of the Data Center and the Embedded segments, given our product portfolio. And we'll watch the macro on the Client and Gaming and see how that plays out.

    然後在遊戲領域,我們再次經歷了非常強勁的 2022 年。因此遊戲機需求實際上非常強勁。鑑於我們在周期中所處的位置,我們預計遊戲將同比下降。但總的來說,我認為有很多投入和投入,但鑑於我們的產品組合,我們對我們在數據中心和嵌入式領域可以做的事情持樂觀態度。我們將在客戶端和遊戲上觀看宏,看看結果如何。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I guess as my follow-up, I wanted to ask a question about gross margin. The margin, I guess, sequentially down a little bit into March. But I kind of wanted to focus on the drivers of the longer-term margin that's down, I guess, 3 or 4 points from where you were a few quarters ago despite more mix of the revenue coming from Embedded and Data Center. So if there's any way that you guys could try to quantify maybe how much of the margin headwind is from just lower client revenue. How much of it might be from any programs that you're working through to clear the channel? And how might we model? What are the drivers that we should think about in terms of the margin recovering?

    我想作為我的後續行動,我想問一個關於毛利率的問題。利潤率,我猜,連續下降一點點到 3 月。但我有點想關注長期利潤率下降的驅動因素,我猜,儘管來自嵌入式和數據中心的收入組合更多,但與幾個季度前的水平相比下降了 3 或 4 個百分點。因此,如果你們有任何方法可以嘗試量化可能有多少利潤逆風來自較低的客戶收入。有多少可能來自您正在清理頻道的任何程序?我們如何建模?就利潤率恢復而言,我們應該考慮哪些驅動因素?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Yes. Maybe -- so on the overall margin, the way to think about our business, Matt, is -- and our margin is primarily driven by product mix. So as the Embedded and Data Center businesses are -- grow, so the margin expansion grows with it. In terms of the sequential question that you had from Q4 to Q1, that's just a product of the mix. So with Data Center being lower sequentially, that's that. We are also working through our client inventory clearing. What we're seeing in the PC business is, as we're going through this sort of normalization of inventory, especially on some of the older products, we do have more marketing programs and pricing incentives in place. We do expect that to normalize as we go through the first half of the year. And so as Jean said in the prepared remarks, we would expect margin expansion as we go into the second half with the growth in Data Center, Embedded and some normalization of the client business as well.

    是的。也許——所以在整體利潤率上,考慮我們業務的方式,馬特,是——我們的利潤率主要是由產品組合驅動的。因此,隨著嵌入式和數據中心業務的增長,利潤率也會隨之增長。就您從第 4 季度到第 1 季度的連續問題而言,這只是混合的產物。因此,隨著數據中心的順序降低,就是這樣。我們還在處理客戶庫存清算。我們在 PC 業務中看到的是,當我們正在經歷這種庫存正常化時,尤其是在一些舊產品上,我們確實有更多的營銷計劃和定價激勵措施。我們確實希望在今年上半年恢復正常。因此,正如 Jean 在準備好的發言中所說的那樣,隨著數據中心、嵌入式和客戶業務的一些正常化,我們預計下半年利潤率將會擴大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is coming from Vivek Arya from Bank of America Securities.

    您的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Best wishes to Devinder and Jean from my side as well. On the first one, Lisa, I think you mentioned some elevated inventory among your cloud customers. I was hoping you could give us some quantification of how elevated. Is it a 1-quarter issue? Is it a 2-quarter issue? Does it impact the pace of your January ramp? Because I think coming into this year, the expectations where you could grow server sales by over 20%, do you think that is still a possibility because I imagine you get some benefit from better general pricing. So just puts and takes of how we should think about your Data Center business through this year.

    我也向 Devinder 和 Jean 致以最良好的祝愿。關於第一個,麗莎,我想你提到了你的雲客戶中的一些高庫存。我希望你能給我們一些量化的提升。這是一季度的問題嗎?這是一個2季度的問題嗎?它會影響您 1 月份的增長速度嗎?因為我認為進入今年,服務器銷量增長超過 20% 的預期,你認為這仍然有可能嗎,因為我想你會從更好的一般定價中獲益。因此,請簡單介紹我們今年應該如何考慮您的數據中心業務。

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Yes, sure, Vivek. So look, we remain very bullish about our Data Center business. I mean I think the feedback that we've gotten on Genoa from our customer set is very strong. And as I said, the important thing is we are expanding workloads.

    是的,當然,維維克。所以看,我們仍然非常看好我們的數據中心業務。我的意思是我認為我們從客戶群那裡得到的關於熱那亞的反饋非常強烈。正如我所說,重要的是我們正在擴大工作量。

  • In terms of where we believe the -- as the inventory normalizes, each customer is different, so they have what they're trying to achieve in terms of inventory levels. Our expectation is that sort of the first half softness for cloud and then second half strength as that's worked through. But like I said, it's different for each customer.

    就我們相信的地方而言——隨著庫存正常化,每個客戶都是不同的,因此他們在庫存水平方面擁有他們想要實現的目標。我們的期望是雲的前半部分柔軟,然後是下半部分的強度。但就像我說的,每個客戶都不一樣。

  • And then in terms of overall growth, as I said, we're very bullish on the overall growth of our Data Center business and the opportunity to gain share as we go through the year. And as we go through the ramp in Genoa, we do have more content with the higher core count that should also help ASPs.

    然後就整體增長而言,正如我所說,我們非常看好數據中心業務的整體增長以及我們在這一年中獲得份額的機會。隨著我們在熱那亞的發展,我們確實擁有更多具有更高核心數的內容,這也應該有助於 ASP。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then on the PC side and also kind of as it relates to the pricing environment, you mentioned the PC TAM is -- could be down about 10%. But when we look at the shipments, right, from you and your competitor, they could be down as much as 40% or 50%, right, year-on-year in Q1. So do you think there's a possibility that the TAM assumption of just down 10% could be an optimistic one?

    知道了。然後在 PC 端,也與定價環境有關,你提到 PC TAM 可能會下降約 10%。但是,當我們查看您和您的競爭對手的出貨量時,它們在第一季度可能會同比下降 40% 或 50%。那麼,您認為 TAM 僅下降 10% 的假設是否有可能是一個樂觀的假設?

  • Because I would imagine that would suggest the inventory clears out soon, but you're suggesting that it may not clear out until Q2. So I was just hoping you could give us some better sense for when the PC market starts recovering. And do you think it could become more price competitive before it recovers?

    因為我想這會表明庫存很快就會清空,但你的意思是它可能要到第二季度才會清空。所以我只是希望你能讓我們更好地了解 PC 市場何時開始復蘇。你認為它在恢復之前會變得更具價格競爭力嗎?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Yes. So maybe just to make sure that we're just correlating the numbers. So my comment about PC TAM being down 10% was assuming if you take a look at sort of what IDC just published for 2022 at about 290 million units, and that's more of a sell-through TAM versus a sell-in TAM. So we have been under-shipping sort of the sell-through or consumption for the last 2 quarters in an attempt to renormalize that as soon as possible.

    是的。所以也許只是為了確保我們只是關聯數字。因此,我關於 PC TAM 下降 10% 的評論是假設,如果你看一下 IDC 剛剛發布的 2022 年約 2.9 億台的數據,那更像是銷售 TAM 與銷售 TAM。因此,在過去的兩個季度中,我們一直在減少銷售或消費,以盡快重新正常化。

  • In terms of do I think it's -- I think it's in the ZIP code. I think it's in the ZIP code. So if you imagine 2023 sell-through TAM of about 260 million units, plus or minus, seems to be about the right number. We have made good progress in inventory normalization. We want to be cautious, obviously, heading into the year just given the macro environment. First quarter we said would be roughly seasonal for PCs. I think second quarter -- first quarter should be the bottom for us in PCs. We -- and then grow from there into the second quarter and then into the second half.

    就我認為的而言——我認為它在郵政編碼中。我認為它在郵政編碼中。因此,如果您想像 2023 年的 TAM 銷量約為 2.6 億台,上下浮動似乎是正確的數字。我們在庫存正常化方面取得了良好進展。顯然,考慮到宏觀環境,我們要謹慎進入這一年。我們說第一季度對 PC 來說大致是季節性的。我認為第二季度 - 第一季度應該是我們個人電腦的底部。我們 - 然後從那裡增長到第二季度,然後進入下半年。

  • And I should note also, Vivek, I mean, we just launched our Ryzen 7000 series with sort of our AI capabilities, both from a notebook and desktop standpoint. So we feel good about the product road map in PCs. Obviously, we have to get through this normalization. Most of the focus is on continuing to differentiate our products and working with our customers to offer sort of very strong platforms.

    我還應該指出,Vivek,我的意思是,我們剛剛推出了具有某種 AI 功能的 Ryzen 7000 系列,無論是從筆記本電腦還是台式機的角度來看。所以我們對 PC 的產品路線圖感覺良好。顯然,我們必須通過這種正常化。大部分重點是繼續使我們的產品脫穎而出,並與我們的客戶合作以提供某種非常強大的平台。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is coming from Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein Research.

    下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • I noted that you said that gross margins would expand in the second half, but you didn't give us any color on how much they might expand. Can you give us any idea like first half to second half? Or I mean just for the full year, do you think gross margins grow year-over-year from the 52% that you printed in 2022?

    我注意到你說毛利率會在下半年擴大,但你沒有給我們任何關於它們可能擴大多少的顏色。你能告訴我們上半場到下半場的任何想法嗎?或者我的意思是僅就全年而言,您認為毛利率會比您在 2022 年印刷的 52% 同比增長嗎?

  • Jean X. Hu - Executive VP & CFO

    Jean X. Hu - Executive VP & CFO

  • Stacy, this is Jean. Let me take this question, then Lisa can add. As we talk about it, it's both our Embedded and Data Center segment have strong gross margins. So we feel pretty good about second half.

    斯泰西,這是讓。讓我來回答這個問題,然後 Lisa 可以補充。正如我們所說,我們的嵌入式和數據中心部門的毛利率都很高。所以我們對下半場感覺很好。

  • We continue to have the growth of both Embedded and Data Center segment. The major headwind we are facing is really Client side, which if you think about the gross margin in the first half of 2022 versus the first half of 2023, the major impact is from the client revenue, inventory correction, which impact the gross margin in the Client segment.

    我們繼續保持嵌入式和數據中心部分的增長。我們面臨的主要阻力實際上是客戶端,如果您考慮 2022 年上半年與 2023 年上半年的毛利率,主要影響來自客戶收入、庫存調整,這會影響 2023 年上半年的毛利率客戶端部分。

  • So going into second half, the normalization of the Client segment will help us to expand the gross margin. I think it really depends on how the Client segment will recover. That will drive the gross margin if it's going to go back to the first half of 2022 or expand beyond that level. But overall, we feel pretty good. Once we normalize the Client segment, our gross margin will continue to expand.

    因此進入下半年,客戶部門的正常化將幫助我們擴大毛利率。我認為這真的取決於客戶細分市場將如何恢復。如果它要回到 2022 年上半年或擴大到該水平以上,這將推動毛利率。但總的來說,我們感覺還不錯。一旦我們將客戶細分市場正常化,我們的毛利率將繼續擴大。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • So I guess I'd ask the question again, for 2023, do you think gross margins can expand over 2022?

    所以我想我會再次問這個問題,對於 2023 年,您認為毛利率可以在 2022 年擴大嗎?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Maybe what I would say, Stacy, is I think we've given you the puts and takes for where the margin goes. I think it depends a bit on what happens in the macro environment. But we do feel good about second half expansion, and we'll see sort of the relative recovery in macro as it relates to all of our segments.

    也許我要說的是,斯泰西,我認為我們已經為您提供了保證金的看跌期權和看跌期權。我認為這在一定程度上取決於宏觀環境中發生的事情。但我們確實對下半年的擴張感到滿意,我們將看到宏觀經濟的相對複蘇,因為它與我們所有的細分市場都相關。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • Got it. I guess for my follow-up, maybe it follows up on that a little bit more just around the mix. I get how Data Center and Embedded should be growing in the second half versus the first half. But presumably, Client will, too, first half to second half, given that you are under-shipping, it sounds like by a pretty wide margin right now. How do you feel about your mix just across the 4 businesses of the second half versus the first half?

    知道了。我想對於我的後續行動,也許它會圍繞混音進行更多的跟進。我了解數據中心和嵌入式在下半年與上半年的增長情況。但據推測,鑑於您的出貨量不足,客戶也會從上半年到下半年,現在聽起來差距很大。您如何看待下半年與上半年的 4 項業務的組合?

  • Do you think your Data Center plus Embedded mix, as a percentage of total revenue in the second half, is materially higher than it is in the first half? Or I mean could it even be not that different at all given the potential growth that you might see just from the channel normalization in clients?

    您認為您的數據中心加嵌入式組合佔下半年總收入的百分比是否明顯高於上半年?或者我的意思是,考慮到您可能僅從客戶的渠道正常化中看到的潛在增長,它甚至可以沒有那麼不同嗎?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Yes. I think the way to think about it is, I think our Data Center grow -- growth in the second half versus first half, we expect that to be significantly stronger. As it relates to clients, we would also expect it to be stronger. Again, depending a bit on macro and sort of how the TAM actually evolves. I think for the Embedded businesses, I would say that we expect to grow over the full year 2023 versus 2022. What we see right now is a fairly strong backlog and good visibility into the first half of the year. I'm not ready to say that Embedded will grow in the second half versus the first half, though, because we're coming off very strong growth already. And so I think those are the puts and takes.

    是的。我認為考慮它的方式是,我認為我們的數據中心在下半年與上半年的增長相比,我們預計會更加強勁。由於它與客戶有關,我們也希望它會更強大。同樣,這在一定程度上取決於宏觀和 TAM 的實際演變方式。我認為對於嵌入式業務,我想說我們預計 2023 年全年將比 2022 年增長。我們現在看到的是相當強勁的積壓和對今年上半年的良好可見性。不過,我不准備說嵌入式業務在下半年會比上半年增長,因為我們已經實現了非常強勁的增長。所以我認為這些是看跌期權。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is coming from Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • Lisa, the pushback that we often get is AMD is doing really well, gaining share, but you're gaining share in relatively mature markets. And when it comes to AI, you do have a strategy, but you really haven't shown the product set, if you will. You talked about how you have CPU, GPU, FPGA and Pensando, and you're shipping samples of MI300, I guess, later this quarter and potentially launching in the second half. At what point do we, as analysts and investors, start to see your AI strategy materialize in the P&L and your profitability, if you will?

    麗莎,我們經常遇到的阻力是 AMD 做得非常好,正在增加份額,但你在相對成熟的市場中獲得份額。說到人工智能,你確實有一個策略,但你真的沒有展示產品集,如果你願意的話。你談到了你如何擁有 CPU、GPU、FPGA 和 Pensando,並且你正在運送 MI300 的樣品,我猜,本季度晚些時候可能會在下半年推出。如果您願意的話,作為分析師和投資者,我們什麼時候開始看到您的人工智能戰略在損益表和盈利能力中實現?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Yes. Thanks for the question. We believe that AI is a huge driver of compute growth. And given our portfolio, it should be a driver of our growth as well. I think if you think about the product sets that we are putting sort of AI content in, you should expect MI300, of course, on the GPU training side. We just launched Ryzen AI in our PC portfolio. You can expect additional AI acceleration coming in our server portfolio as well. So you're going to see AI broadly across our road maps.

    是的。謝謝你的問題。我們相信人工智能是計算增長的巨大驅動力。鑑於我們的投資組合,它也應該成為我們增長的驅動力。我認為,如果您考慮我們正在放入某種 AI 內容的產品集,您當然應該在 GPU 培訓方面期待 MI300。我們剛剛在我們的 PC 產品組合中推出了 Ryzen AI。您也可以期待我們的服務器產品組合中出現更多的 AI 加速。所以你會在我們的路線圖中廣泛看到人工智能。

  • In terms of when -- we've talked before about sort of our Data Center GPU ambitions and the opportunity there, we see it as a large opportunity. As we go into the second half of the year and launch MI300, sort of the first user of MI300 will be the supercomputers or El Capitan, but we're working closely with some large cloud vendors as well to qualify MI300 in AI workloads. And we should expect that to be more of a meaningful contributor in 2024. So lots of focus on just a huge opportunity, lots of investments in software as well to bring the ecosystem with us.

    就時間而言——我們之前已經討論過我們的數據中心 GPU 雄心和那裡的機會,我們認為這是一個巨大的機會。當我們進入今年下半年並推出 MI300 時,MI300 的第一個用戶將是超級計算機或 El Capitan,但我們也在與一些大型雲供應商密切合作,以在 AI 工作負載中驗證 MI300。我們應該期望它在 2024 年成為更有意義的貢獻者。因此,我們非常關註一個巨大的機會,對軟件進行大量投資,並為我們帶來生態系統。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • That's very helpful. And then, Lisa, as my follow-up, I had a question on profitability in your client business or your PC business. I think a year ago, margins were really high. Supply was relatively tight. Since then, with the inventory correction and perhaps a little bit more competition, your profit margins are down. You talked about the first half of this year still being sort of in digestion mode, and then in the second half, things normalizing. But would it be realistic to assume your gross margins in the Client business return to first half '22 levels? Or in hindsight, margins back then were perhaps you were over-earning in that business given the environment?

    這很有幫助。然後,麗莎,作為我的後續行動,我有一個關於你的客戶業務或你的 PC 業務的盈利能力的問題。我想一年前,利潤率真的很高。供應相對緊張。從那以後,隨著庫存調整和競爭的加劇,您的利潤率下降了。你談到今年上半年仍處於消化模式,然後在下半年,情況正常化。但是假設您在客戶業務中的毛利率恢復到 22 世紀上半年的水平是否現實?或者事後看來,考慮到環境,當時的利潤率可能是您在該業務中的超額收入?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Yes. Sure. So I think on the Client segment, it's fair to say that we believe, given where we are with the client inventory levels, the first half will certainly be lower. We expect some improvement in the second half. But in terms of overall margin, we expect that the client business will be below the corporate average, and that's how we're modeling the client business.

    是的。當然。所以我認為在客戶部分,可以公平地說,我們相信,鑑於我們的客戶庫存水平,上半年肯定會更低。我們預計下半年會有所改善。但就整體利潤率而言,我們預計客戶業務將低於公司平均水平,這就是我們為客戶業務建模的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is coming from Aaron Rakers from Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • Yes. I guess the first question is going back to the Data Center piece of the business and specifically around the ramp of Genoa. I'm curious, is there any help that you can provide us with thinking about the ASP uplift you expect to see with the Genoa product cycle? And I guess at some point through 2023, how do we start to think about the Bergamo product cycle as well impacting the server CPU business?

    是的。我想第一個問題是回到業務的數據中心部分,特別是圍繞熱那亞的坡道。我很好奇,您是否可以幫助我們思考您期望在熱那亞產品週期中看到的 ASP 提升?我想在 2023 年的某個時候,我們如何開始考慮 Bergamo 產品週期以及對服務器 CPU 業務的影響?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Sure. So Aaron, we started shipping Genoa in the third quarter that ramped into the fourth quarter and will continue to ramp through 2024. The way I think about -- or the way you should think about the Genoa ramp is that it is a new platform for our customers. So they'll be introducing it -- introducing first-in-cloud sort of internal workloads and then going to external workloads and then enterprise. So I think it will be throughout 2024. We have -- I'm sorry, throughout 2023.

    當然。所以 Aaron,我們在第三季度開始運送熱那亞,並在第四季度開始增加,並將繼續增加到 2024 年。我認為 - 或者你應該考慮熱那亞增加的方式是它是一個新平台我們的顧客。所以他們將引入它——首先引入雲中的內部工作負載,然後是外部工作負載,然後是企業。所以我認為這將持續到 2024 年。我們 - 對不起,整個 2023 年。

  • We do have higher core counts on Genoa. So you would expect that, that will give us some ASP uplift as we go through to some of those higher core count products. Bergamo will launch in the first half of the year. We are on track for the Bergamo launch, and you'll see that become a larger contributor in the second half. So as we think about the Zen 4 ramp and the crossover to our Zen 3 ramp, it should be towards the end of the year, sort of in the fourth quarter, that you would see a crossover of sort of Zen 4 versus Zen 3, if that helps you.

    我們確實在熱那亞擁有更高的核心數量。所以你會期望,當我們使用一些更高核心數的產品時,這會給我們帶來一些 ASP 提升。 Bergamo 將於今年上半年推出。我們正在為 Bergamo 的發布做好準備,您會看到它在下半年成為更大的貢獻者。因此,當我們考慮 Zen 4 斜坡和 Zen 3 斜坡的交叉時,應該在今年年底,大約在第四季度,你會看到 Zen 4 與 Zen 3 的交叉,如果這對你有幫助。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Equity Analyst

  • Yes, that's very helpful. And then as a quick follow-up, the business doesn't really ask that much about, but it's been doing phenomenally well here these last couple of quarters. It's actually the Xilinx business. I know it's within the Embedded largely. But your self reporting, I think if I read the filings correctly, growing 40% plus on a like-for-like basis for Xilinx. I think your competitor also growing a solid pace. How do you think about the sustainability or durability of that demand in that Embedded or Xilinx business as we move through '23?

    是的,這很有幫助。然後作為快速跟進,業務並沒有真正問那麼多,但在過去的幾個季度裡它在這裡表現得非常好。這實際上是 Xilinx 的業務。我知道它主要在嵌入式中。但是你的自我報告,我想如果我正確閱讀了這些文件,Xilinx 在類似的基礎上增長了 40% 以上。我認為您的競爭對手也在穩步增長。在我們度過 23 世紀之際,您如何看待嵌入式或 Xilinx 業務需求的可持續性或持久性?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Sure. So Aaron, that business has done very well. So the Xilinx business, I think our overall Embedded business continues to do well. When we look across the subsegments, there are puts and takes in the subsegments. But what we see is content is going up. So we had records in communications, industrial and health care, aerospace and defense, automotive. We have the Embedded processor content that's also going into automotive. So we feel very good about that business.

    當然。所以亞倫,這項業務做得很好。所以 Xilinx 業務,我認為我們的整體嵌入式業務繼續表現良好。當我們查看子分段時,子分段中有看跌期權和接收期權。但我們看到的是內容正在上升。所以我們在通信、工業和醫療保健、航空航天和國防、汽車領域都有記錄。我們的嵌入式處理器內容也將用於汽車領域。所以我們對這項業務感覺非常好。

  • I think as we look into 2023, I mentioned this in the question with Stacy, we have a very good visibility to the first half just given the lead times and the backlog. And the first half looks strong, so we expect to grow sequentially in the first quarter. As we go into the second half of the year, we're monitoring the overall demand environment. And just given how strong it's been, we are looking at whether there'll be some puts and takes in some of the end market segments there. But overall, I think the key point is the content, and our design win momentum is good, and we continue to ramp new design wins in the Xilinx business.

    我認為當我們展望 2023 年時,我在 Stacy 的問題中提到了這一點,我們對上半年的可見性非常好,只是考慮到交貨時間和積壓。上半年看起來很強勁,所以我們預計第一季度會連續增長。進入下半年時,我們正在監測整體需求環境。考慮到它的強勁程度,我們正在研究是否會有一些看跌期權並接受那裡的一些終端細分市場。但總的來說,我認為關鍵是內容,我們的設計獲胜勢頭良好,我們將繼續在 Xilinx 業務中贏得新的設計勝利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is coming from Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • I wonder if you could talk to us about the puts and takes of PC market share in a down 10% environment. I would assume it helps you with consumers better than commercial, but what is your progress in terms of penetrating the notebook market and penetrating the commercial market where you could continue to gain share?

    我想知道您能否與我們談談在下降 10% 的環境下 PC 市場份額的買賣。我認為它可以更好地幫助您解決消費者問題,而不是商業問題,但是您在滲透筆記本電腦市場和滲透可以繼續獲得份額的商業市場方面取得了哪些進展?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Yes. Joe, we view that the opportunity -- so first of all, I would say that in general, the PC market share numbers are probably a bit noisy right now, just given all of the sell-in, sell-through and the inventory dynamics that are being worked through. Actually, in the fourth quarter, we believe we gained a little bit of share in the PC market. As we go forward into 2023, we think our product portfolio is very strong. As we look at Ryzen 7000 and where it goes and where we are positioned in the commercial as well as the high-end consumer segments, we're not changing our strategy on PCs. Quite -- a few years ago, we really focused on sort of the more premium segments. We have less penetration in the low end, which I think is helpful. And as we go forward, we're continuing to focus on commercial PCs and getting a larger footprint in there.

    是的。喬,我們看到了這個機會——所以首先,我想說的是,總的來說,PC 市場份額數字現在可能有點嘈雜,只是考慮到所有的銷售、銷售和庫存動態正在解決的問題。實際上,在第四季度,我們相信我們在 PC 市場上獲得了一點份額。隨著我們進入 2023 年,我們認為我們的產品組合非常強大。當我們審視 Ryzen 7000 及其發展方向以及我們在商業和高端消費領域的定位時,我們不會改變我們在 PC 上的戰略。相當 - 幾年前,我們真的專注於更高端的細分市場。我們在低端的滲透率較低,我認為這很有幫助。隨著我們的前進,我們將繼續專注於商用 PC 並在其中獲得更大的足跡。

  • I will say the enterprise work that we're doing on the server side, I think, links very well to the commercial PC work, and we're continuing to invest in sort of the sales and marketing resources to ramp that side of the business.

    我會說我們在服務器端所做的企業工作,我認為,與商用 PC 工作有很好的聯繫,我們將繼續投資於某種銷售和營銷資源,以推動這一方面的業務.

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • Great. And then going back to the Genoa question that was asked a second ago, as you are in this kind of budget-conscious environment, you're introducing a chip in a system that has pretty high platform cost. Does that slow the adoption at all? It seems like people -- and your competitors are dealing with some of the same issues. Just how does the current environment affect the rate at which Genoa will ramp?

    偉大的。然後回到一秒鐘前提出的 Genoa 問題,因為你處於這種精打細算的環境中,你要在平台成本相當高的系統中引入芯片。這會減慢採用速度嗎?人們和您的競爭對手似乎正在處理一些相同的問題。當前環境如何影響熱那亞的增長速度?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Yes. I would say, Joe, the total cost of ownership benefit of Genoa, particularly in some of the larger cloud workloads, is very, very significant. So I wouldn't say that, that's necessarily slowing the pace of adoption. It is a new platform though. So if you think about when we went from Rome to Milan, it was basically similar platforms. So I would say that, that ramp was a bit faster.

    是的。喬,我要說的是,熱那亞的總擁有成本優勢,特別是在一些較大的雲工作負載中,非常非常重要。所以我不會這麼說,這必然會減慢採用的速度。雖然這是一個新平台。所以如果你想想我們從羅馬到米蘭的時候,基本上都是類似的平台。所以我會說,那個斜坡要快一點。

  • But as it relates to Genoa, we had always expected that Milan and Genoa would coexist through 2023. And that we would have -- we still have Milan instances that are just ramping now, and we expect that will continue through 2023. And so I really view this as the natural thing when we introduce Genoa at sort of the higher core count, that both will coexist. And as some of the platform costs come down, you'll see the Genoa cutover, and that's what I mentioned towards the fourth quarter of 2023.

    但就熱那亞而言,我們一直預計米蘭和熱那亞將共存到 2023 年。我們本來可以——我們現在仍然有米蘭的實例,我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年。所以我當我們以更高的核心數量引入熱那亞時,真的認為這是很自然的事情,兩者將共存。隨著一些平台成本的下降,你會看到熱那亞的切換,這就是我在 2023 年第四季度提到的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is coming from Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.

    你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Let me ask a question. And Jean, congrats on the new job. Lisa, I was hoping you could give a little bit of sequential color to just size the magnitude of the 3 segments that are going down in the first quarter and then Embedded going up. And really what I'm getting at there is, in an answer to a prior question, you talked about the mix being a headwind to gross margin. And I think, Jean, you cited Data Center dropping as a percent of the mix. So just trying to get the magnitude of just how much Data Center has to drop to make that outcome on the mix side be true.

    讓我問一個問題。 Jean,恭喜你獲得新工作。麗莎,我希望你能給出一點連續的顏色來確定第一季度下降的 3 個部分的大小,然後嵌入式上升。而我真正得到的是,在回答先前的問題時,你談到了混合對毛利率的不利影響。我認為,Jean,你提到數據中心下降佔組合的百分比。因此,只是想了解數據中心必須下降多少才能使混合方面的結果為真。

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Sure, Ross. So let's see. We said the Client and Gaming segments would be seasonal. So you would expect that the Data Center would be more than seasonal. So maybe to help you size that, think about the Data Center sequential drop as double digit, whereas the Client and the Gaming segments are more like single digit, if that helps.

    當然,羅斯。讓我們看看。我們說客戶和遊戲部門將是季節性的。因此,您會期望數據中心不僅僅是季節性的。因此,也許可以幫助您調整大小,將數據中心的連續下降視為兩位數,而客戶端和遊戲部分更像是個位數,如果有幫助的話。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Yes, it does. And anything similarly on Embedded? Is that kind of up single digits?

    是的,它確實。 Embedded 上有類似的東西嗎?那是個位數的上漲嗎?

  • Jean X. Hu - Executive VP & CFO

    Jean X. Hu - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Yes. Embedded will grow sequentially single digit. Yes.

    是的。是的。嵌入式將按順序增長個位數。是的。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Got it. Sorry for the nitpicky question. A bigger picture one for you then, Lisa, on competitive intensity. On one hand, I could see that the total cost of ownership benefits of these products, multicore, better performance, et cetera, could lead to higher ASPs, whether you're talking about the Data Center side or your Client business. On the other side, competitive intensity and overall demand is weaker. And at some point, you might even get deflationary costs on the foundry side of things. Can you talk a little bit about the pricing environment given those somewhat contradictory pressures?

    知道了。抱歉這個挑剔的問題。那麼,麗莎,關於競爭強度的更大圖景。一方面,我可以看到這些產品的總擁有成本優勢、多核、更好的性能等等,可能會導致更高的 ASP,無論您是在談論數據中心方面還是您的客戶業務。另一方面,競爭強度和整體需求較弱。在某些時候,您甚至可能會在代工方面獲得通貨緊縮成本。鑑於這些有些矛盾的壓力,你能談談定價環境嗎?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Sure. So maybe let me separate Data Center and Client because they're a little bit different. I think on the Data Center side, we would -- we do see that, in general, the performance, the power performance, the total cost of ownership, selling the solution is the most important piece of it because the solutions are actually quite different in terms of what you can do between sort of 4th Gen EPYC and sort of other solutions. The environment is always competitive, but we feel very good about the overall value proposition that we bring to both cloud and enterprise customers.

    當然。所以也許讓我把數據中心和客戶端分開,因為它們有點不同。我認為在數據中心方面,我們會——我們確實看到,一般來說,性能、功率性能、總擁有成本、銷售解決方案是其中最重要的部分,因為解決方案實際上是完全不同的就你可以在第四代 EPYC 和其他解決方案之間做些什麼而言。環境總是充滿競爭,但我們對我們為雲和企業客戶帶來的整體價值主張感到非常滿意。

  • I think on the Client side, we've said for the last couple of quarters that the pricing environment is more aggressive. I think that normally happens when the industry is working on rebalancing. I think we're working on rebalancing, our OEM partners are working on rebalancing. The retailers are working on rebalancing. And so there are more incentives and more -- a more aggressive pricing environment.

    我認為在客戶方面,我們在過去幾個季度表示定價環境更加激進。我認為這通常發生在行業進行再平衡時。我認為我們正在努力重新平衡,我們的 OEM 合作夥伴正在努力重新平衡。零售商正在努力重新平衡。因此,有更多的激勵措施——更激進的定價環境。

  • I view that, that's primarily on, let's call it, older products, let's call it previous generation products. And as we work through that, there will be some normalization as we think about our newer generation products, where there's more capability added. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of the puts and takes.

    我認為,這主要是我們稱之為舊產品,我們稱之為上一代產品。在我們解決這個問題的過程中,當我們考慮我們的新一代產品時,將會有一些規範化,其中增加了更多的功能。所以希望這能給你一些投入和投入。

  • And in terms of the cost environment, I think all of us in the industry have seen some elevated costs, but I think we also see -- expect that to normalize, too, as everyone is sort of optimizing their CapEx spending.

    就成本環境而言,我認為我們行業中的所有人都看到了一些成本上升,但我認為我們也看到了——預計這種情況也會正常化,因為每個人都在某種程度上優化他們的資本支出。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question today is coming from Mark Lipacis from Jefferies.

    您今天的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Mark Lipacis。

  • Mark John Lipacis - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Mark John Lipacis - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Congrats to Jean on the new seat. Two questions, if I may. First, on the PC side. Can you give us a sense about roughly how far under consumption, you believe, you're shipping on the PC side, either in Q4 and Q1?

    恭喜 Jean 就任新席位。兩個問題,如果可以的話。首先,在PC端。您能否大致了解一下第四季度和第一季度 PC 端的出貨量?

  • And Lisa, correct me if I'm wrong, I thought I heard you say in an answer to an earlier question that you expect the PC client just to grow into second quarter. So does that suggest that 1Q, you think, is the bottom on the PC? And then I had a follow-up.

    麗莎,如果我錯了請糾正我,我想我聽到你在回答之前的問題時說你希望 PC 客戶端在第二季度增長。那麼這是否表明您認為 1Q 是 PC 的底部?然後我進行了跟進。

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Sure, Mark. So we -- so the first -- the second question, yes. We do believe the first quarter is the bottom for our PC market -- for our PC business, and we'll see some growth in the second quarter and then a seasonally higher second half.

    當然,馬克。所以我們 - 所以第一個 - 第二個問題,是的。我們確實相信第一季度是我們 PC 市場的底部 - 對於我們的 PC 業務,我們將在第二季度看到一些增長,然後在下半年出現季節性增長。

  • In terms of the under shipment, I mean, I think we're -- we under-shipped in Q3, we under-shipped in Q4. We will under-ship, to a lesser extent, in Q1. So I think you can infer that from our guidance of single-digit down. And then we'll be back to a more normal environment.

    就出貨量而言,我的意思是,我認為我們 - 我們在第三季度出貨量不足,我們在第四季度出貨量不足。我們將在較小程度上在第一季度發貨不足。所以我認為你可以從我們的個位數下降指導中推斷出這一點。然後我們會回到一個更正常的環境。

  • Now just as a reminder, though, the first half is not usually a -- the first half is usually a seasonally weak client time anyways. So we would expect more lift in the second half, not so much in the second quarter.

    不過,現在提醒一下,上半年通常不是 - 無論如何,上半年通常是季節性的客戶疲軟時間。因此,我們預計下半年會有更多提升,而不是第二季度。

  • Mark John Lipacis - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Mark John Lipacis - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Got you. Okay. That's very helpful. And then a follow-up, if I may, on the -- China is lifting, as they're lifting the COVID restrictions, I guess I would imagine that you would expect that ultimately, at some point, to translate into higher demand. And I'm wondering if you could just kind of share with us your thoughts about how that might play out. And could you remind us, to the extent that you can help us understand the risk to the supply side for you in the event that the COVID spreads rapidly as they lift the restrictions and impacts what you have on the supply side there.

    明白了好的。這很有幫助。然後是後續行動,如果可以的話,中國正在解除,因為他們正在解除 COVID 限制,我想我想你會期望最終在某個時候轉化為更高的需求。我想知道您是否可以與我們分享您對結果如何的看法。您能否提醒我們,如果 COVID 在解除限制並影響供應方所擁有的東西時迅速傳播,您能否幫助我們了解供應方面臨的風險。

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Sure, Mark. So we've done a very good job in our supply chain in terms of risk mitigation. So we have -- we don't believe that we have a significant risk as it relates to COVID future outbreaks, if there are any. As it relates to China recovery, I think we would benefit from a China recovery. It's very difficult to call. I mean we've seen, certainly in our Data Center business, we saw in the second half of the year and last year in the first half of this year that the China Data Center business has been weak for us. If there was a recovery, I think we would benefit from that. Similarly, some of the other consumer patterns as well. But it's very difficult to call. So we put that in the bucket of macro uncertainty, and we'll see how it plays out.

    當然,馬克。因此,就風險緩解而言,我們在供應鏈中做得非常好。所以我們有 - 我們不認為我們有重大風險,因為它與 COVID 未來爆發有關,如果有的話。由於它與中國復甦有關,我認為我們將從中國復甦中受益。很難打電話。我的意思是我們已經看到,當然在我們的數據中心業務中,我們在今年下半年和去年上半年看到中國數據中心業務對我們來說一直很疲軟。如果出現復甦,我認為我們將從中受益。同樣,其他一些消費模式也是如此。但是很難調用。所以我們把它放在宏觀不確定性的範圍內,我們會看看它是如何發揮作用的。

  • Ruth Cotter - SVP of Marketing, HR & IR

    Ruth Cotter - SVP of Marketing, HR & IR

  • Operator, we'll take 2 more questions from 2 callers, please.

    接線員,請再回答 2 位來電者的 2 個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Certainly. Our next question is coming from Chris Danely from Citi.

    當然。我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Danely。

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

  • Great. Congrats on being the first all-female CEO, CFO team. It's a long time coming. So your gross margins held up pretty well for the Q1 guide despite high-margin Data Center business going down. So if the Data Center business remains weak and has a rough quarter in Q2, can we expect a similar gross margin resiliency?

    偉大的。恭喜成為首個全女性 CEO、CFO 團隊。好久不見了。因此,儘管高利潤的數據中心業務在下滑,但你們的毛利率在第一季度指南中保持得很好。因此,如果數據中心業務仍然疲軟並且在第二季度表現不佳,我們能否期待類似的毛利率彈性?

  • Jean X. Hu - Executive VP & CFO

    Jean X. Hu - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, definitely. I think as I said earlier, the major impact on gross margin actually is the PC Client side. The stabilization and the bottoming of Client on the business really help us with the gross margin at the current level. Second half, we should see the expansion of gross margin.

    當然是。我認為正如我之前所說,對毛利率的主要影響實際上是 PC 客戶端。客戶業務的穩定和触底確實幫助我們實現了當前水平的毛利率。下半年,我們應該看到毛利率的擴張。

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

  • Sure. And as my follow-up on your PC Client business, so it had its correction a little bit later than some of the other folks in the semi industry and was obviously a little bit steeper. Can you talk about why that happened and why we should or should not expect that? Or could that happen in the Data Center business as well?

    當然。作為我對您的 PC 客戶端業務的後續行動,它的修正比半導體行業的其他一些人晚了一點,而且顯然有點陡峭。你能談談為什麼會發生這種情況以及為什麼我們應該或不應該期待這種情況嗎?或者數據中心業務也會發生這種情況嗎?

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • I guess Chris, what I would say is I think the PC market has been volatile, and we did significantly -- coming off the pandemic, there was very high demand during the pandemic, and I think we were all adjusting as we're looking at sort of the demand environment post-pandemic and with macro uncertainty. I think the Data Center business, we have again, our -- we're heavily weighted towards cloud, and we have very good discussions with our overall customer set in terms of what they need. I think what's going in our favor in the Data Center is our workloads are expanding. And so we've heard from all of our cloud customers that they're adopting both Milan and Genoa in more workloads than previous. And so I think that gives us good confidence.

    我猜 Chris,我想說的是我認為 PC 市場一直在波動,而且我們做了很多 - 擺脫大流行,大流行期間需求非常高,我認為我們都在調整,因為我們正在尋找在某種程度上是大流行後的需求環境和宏觀不確定性。我認為數據中心業務,我們再次,我們 - 我們非常重視雲,我們與我們的整體客戶群就他們的需求進行了很好的討論。我認為數據中心對我們有利的是我們的工作負載正在擴大。因此,我們從所有云客戶那裡聽說,他們在比以前更多的工作負載中採用米蘭和熱那亞。所以我認為這給了我們很好的信心。

  • And frankly, the Data Center customers are also giving us good visibility into what they need for 2023. So there is an adjustment in the first half. And I think that's something that we understand. And we also expect that we're going to have to ramp up production in the second half as some of the demand resumes. And I think the overall factor of compute in the cloud being a very important long-term driver is definitely there. So we feel good about sort of where we're positioned.

    坦率地說,數據中心客戶也讓我們很好地了解了他們 2023 年的需求。因此上半年進行了調整。我認為這是我們理解的事情。我們還預計,隨著部分需求的恢復,我們將不得不在下半年提高產量。而且我認為雲計算的整體因素是一個非常重要的長期驅動因素,這是肯定存在的。因此,我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question today is coming from Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

    我們今天的最後一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • Lisa, I had a question on your Client business. I know that your competitor at times uses rebates and subsidies. But the numbers that are in their filings have gotten pretty vague. So I take it from your answer to a prior question that you think that's more on legacy parts. I guess I'm just kind of wondering what changes or impact that's had on your business. And I continue to hear these worries that it's going to have some lasting effect on your share and particularly on your margins.

    麗莎,我有一個關於你的客戶業務的問題。我知道您的競爭對手有時會使用回扣和補貼。但他們提交的文件中的數字變得相當模糊。因此,我從您對先前問題的回答中得出結論,您認為這更多是關於遺留部分。我想我只是想知道這對您的業務有什麼變化或影響。而且我繼續聽到這些擔憂,它會對您的份額產生一些持久影響,尤其是對您的利潤率。

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • Sure, Tim. So let me make a couple of points. I think all of us, as we participate in the PC industry, there are various parts of the ecosystem that we work with. We work with our OEMs, we work with our retail partners, we work with our distribution and channel partners. And we're all working together to work through sort of the elevated inventory levels. As I said, I think we've made good progress on that. And I think we have much better visibility into the various pieces.

    當然,蒂姆。因此,讓我提出幾點。我認為我們所有人,當我們參與 PC 行業時,我們都在與生態系統的各個部分合作。我們與我們的原始設備製造商合作,我們與我們的零售合作夥伴合作,我們與我們的分銷和渠道合作夥伴合作。我們都在共同努力解決庫存水平升高的問題。正如我所說,我認為我們在這方面取得了很好的進展。而且我認為我們對各個部分有了更好的了解。

  • As it relates to the pricing environment, I do believe that the pricing environment is -- particularly when you're clearing older inventory or older-generation products, is a bit more competitive. And we see that. As we look forward, the way we're modeling the Client business is that we are modeling gross margins to be less than corporate average. That's different than our previous modeling.

    由於它與定價環境有關,我確實相信定價環境 - 特別是當你清理舊庫存或老一代產品時,更具競爭力。我們看到了。展望未來,我們對客戶業務建模的方式是我們將毛利率建模為低於公司平均水平。這與我們之前的建模不同。

  • So previously, Client was more like at corporate average. And I think given the -- I think the nice thing is our business is quite a bit more diversified now. And so with our Data Center, Embedded businesses really being strong growth drivers, I think Client continues to be a good market overall. And as we work through this, we will see some of the normalization that Jean mentioned.

    所以以前,客戶更像是公司的平均水平。而且我認為鑑於 - 我認為好事是我們的業務現在更加多元化。因此,對於我們的數據中心,嵌入式業務確實是強勁的增長動力,我認為客戶總體上仍然是一個很好的市場。在我們解決這個問題的過程中,我們將看到 Jean 提到的一些規範化。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • And then I guess just as the last thing, you went through some puts and takes on the different pieces for the year, but I just wondered if I could just get you to kind of give a bias for what you think that the revenue for the year is the bias. It sounds to me like the bias is more up than down, but I just wanted to give you a chance to maybe confirm that or not.

    然後我想就像最後一件事一樣,你經歷了一些看跌期權並承擔了這一年的不同部分,但我只是想知道我是否可以讓你對你認為的收入有所偏見年份是偏差。在我看來,偏見更多的是向上而不是向下,但我只是想給你一個機會來確認或不確認。

  • Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

    Lisa T. Su - President, CEO & Chair of the Board

  • I think Tim, the answer is yes. But again, let's work through the next couple of quarters. And we feel good about how our products are positioned, and we just need to work through the macro and see how that plays out.

    我認為蒂姆,答案是肯定的。但同樣,讓我們在接下來的幾個季度中努力。我們對我們的產品定位感到滿意,我們只需要通過宏觀工作,看看結果如何。

  • Ruth Cotter - SVP of Marketing, HR & IR

    Ruth Cotter - SVP of Marketing, HR & IR

  • Great. Thank you. That concludes today's earnings call. Again, welcome to Jean, and we're delighted to have her on board, and much gratitude to Devinder for his 39 years of service and all his leadership. And we look forward to touching base with all participants throughout the quarter. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝你。今天的財報電話會議到此結束。再次歡迎 Jean,我們很高興她加入我們,並非常感謝 Devinder 39 年的服務和所有領導能力。我們期待在整個季度與所有參與者接觸。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

    謝謝你。今天的電話會議和網絡廣播到此結束。您可以在此時斷開您的線路,並度過美好的一天。感謝您今天的參與。