Amcor PLC (AMCR) 2026 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Amcor's Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

    感謝各位加入,歡迎參加 Amcor 2026 會計年度第四季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

  • I will now hand the conference over to Kate Pearlman, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury. Kate, please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給資深副總裁—投資人關係與財務(資金管理)部門的 Kate Pearlman。Kate,請開始。

  • Kate Pearlman - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations & Treasury

    Kate Pearlman - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations & Treasury

  • Thank you for joining Amcor's fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings call. Here with me today are Peter Konieczny, Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Scherger, Chief Financial Officer. In the Investors section of our website, amcor.com, you'll find today's press release and presentation, which we will discuss on today's call.

    感謝各位參加 Amcor 2026 會計年度第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有執行長 Peter Konieczny,以及財務長 Steve Scherger。在我們網站 amcor.com 的「投資人」專區,您可找到今日的新聞稿與簡報,我們將在本次電話會議中進行說明。

  • Please be aware that we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures and related reconciliations can be found in the press release and the presentation. Remarks will also include forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions.

    請注意,我們也將討論若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標,相關調節表可於新聞稿與簡報中查閱。發言亦將包含前瞻性陳述,係基於管理層目前的觀點與假設。

  • The second slide in today's presentation lists several factors that could cause future results to be different than the current estimates, and reference can be made to Amcor's SEC filings, including our statement on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q for further details. Please note that during the question-and-answer session, we request that you limit yourself to a single question and then rejoin the queue if you have any additional questions or follow-up.

    今日簡報的第二張投影片列示了若干可能導致未來結果與目前估計不同的因素;更多細節可參考 Amcor 向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的文件,包括 10-K 與 10-Q 表格申報。另請注意,在問答環節中,我們請各位每次僅提一個問題;如有其他問題或追問,請重新排隊。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to PK.

    接下來我把電話會議交給 PK。

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Kate, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. As always, we will start with our industry-leading safety performance on slide 3, which remains our highest priority. The total recordable incident rate improved this quarter to 0.47, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of improvement as we leverage our world-class safety program across the combined organization. We're encouraged by the early results from our harmonized safety efforts and remain focused on driving continuous improvement.

    謝謝你,Kate,也感謝各位今天加入。一如往常,我們將先從第 3 張投影片的業界領先安全表現開始,這仍是我們的最高優先事項。本季總可記錄事故率改善至 0.47,為連續第四季改善;我們正將世界級的安全計畫在合併後的整體組織中加以推行。我們對安全整合措施的初步成果感到鼓舞,並將持續專注於推動持續改善。

  • Before turning to our quarterly results, I want to take a moment to discuss the transition in our Investor Relations team. After more than 15 years leading Amcor's Investor Relations efforts, including through 2 strategic acquisitions, Tracey Whitehead has chosen to remain in Australia and pursue opportunities there. I have valued her steady leadership and the lasting impact he made on the company. Tracey will remain with Amcor in an advisory capacity through December to ensure a smooth transition.

    在談到本季業績之前,我想花一點時間說明投資人關係團隊的交接。在領導 Amcor 投資人關係工作超過 15 年、並經歷兩次策略性併購之後,Tracey Whitehead 選擇留在澳洲並在當地尋求發展機會。我一直很珍視她穩健的領導,以及她對公司所帶來的長遠影響。Tracey 將以顧問身分留任至 12 月,以確保交接順利。

  • I also want to extend a warm welcome to Kate Pearlman. Kate has developed a strong reputation leading both Investor Relations and treasury teams in consumer-facing industries. We look forward to leveraging her expertise and perspectives.

    我也要熱烈歡迎 Kate Pearlman 加入。Kate 在面向消費者的產業中領導投資人關係與財務(資金管理)團隊方面建立了良好聲譽。我們期待善用她的專業與觀點。

  • Turning to slide 4, we were pleased to deliver strong operating performance in the fourth quarter despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.23 per share increased 23% year over year resulting in full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.02 per share, up 13% compared to the prior year.

    接著看第 4 張投影片,儘管總體經濟環境充滿挑戰,我們仍很高興在第四季交出強勁的營運表現。第四季調整後每股盈餘(EPS)為每股 1.23 美元,年增 23%;帶動 2026 會計年度全年調整後 EPS 達每股 4.02 美元,較前一年成長 13%。

  • First, these results reflect the resilience of our business model and the benefits of our diversified global portfolio, strengthened by the transformative acquisition of Berry last year. We were pleased to see an inflection to modestly positive volume growth in the quarter. Sequentially, volume increased approximately 200 basis points with growth across several market categories.

    首先,這些成果反映了我們商業模式的韌性,以及多元化全球投資組合所帶來的效益;該投資組合並因去年具變革性的 Berry 併購而更為強化。我們很高興看到本季銷量成長出現拐點,轉為小幅正成長。就季比而言,銷量約增加 200 個基點,且多個市場類別均有成長。

  • Importantly, we continue to deliver for our customers through a period of unprecedented input cost inflation. Highly coordinated efforts by our teams across the globe enabled us to secure the necessary supply, while also executing on productivity initiatives and taking responsible pricing actions to fully mitigate these inflationary pressures.

    更重要的是,在前所未見的投入成本通膨期間,我們持續為客戶交付成果。全球團隊高度協同的努力,使我們得以確保必要供應,同時推動生產力提升計畫,並採取審慎且負責任的定價行動,以完全抵銷這些通膨壓力。

  • Second, synergy capture exceeded our expectations during the quarter as we realized $115 million of synergy, bringing total fiscal 2026 synergies to $285 million. This is approximately 10% ahead of our initial year one expectations.

    第二,本季協同效益的實現超出我們預期;我們實現了 1.15 億美元的協同效益,使 2026 會計年度協同效益合計達 2.85 億美元。這約較我們最初對第一年的預期高出 10%。

  • The successful integration of the legacy businesses, combined with our proven track record of execution, continues to create meaningful value. We have built a strong pipeline of opportunities across procurement, SG&A, operations and commercial growth and remain confident in achieving a $650 million three-year synergy target.

    傳統(既有)業務的成功整合,加上我們經驗證的執行紀錄,持續創造可觀價值。我們已在採購、銷售與一般管理費用(SG&A)、營運以及商業成長等面向建立強勁的機會管線,並仍有信心達成三年 6.5 億美元的協同效益目標。

  • Third, we continue to make progress on optimizing our portfolio with a total of five divestitures closed in the second half of fiscal 2026. By sharpening our focus on higher return, higher growth opportunities across our core business, we expect to drive more sustainable growth in attractive categories and markets. At the same time, our noncore businesses delivered improved year-over-year performance driven by strong execution against broad-based operational initiatives.

    第三,我們持續推進投資組合最佳化;在 2026 會計年度下半年共完成五項資產處分交易。透過更聚焦於核心業務中報酬更高、成長更快的機會,我們預期將在具吸引力的品類與市場中推動更可持續的成長。同時,我們的非核心業務在廣泛的營運改善措施強力執行帶動下,年對年表現亦有所提升。

  • And finally, turning to our outlook. As part of our previously announced fiscal year-end transition, we are providing expectations for the 6 months ending December 31, 2026. We expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.80 to $1.90 per share, which reflects continued improvement in our operating performance, partially offset by higher interest and tax expense. Later in the call, Steve will walk through the building blocks for our EPS outlook.

    最後,談到我們的展望。作為先前已公告的會計年度年結日調整的一部分,我們提供截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日止 6 個月的預期。我們預期調整後 EPS 將落在每股 1.80 至 1.90 美元區間,反映營運表現持續改善,但部分將被較高的利息與稅負費用所抵銷。稍後在電話會議中,Steve 將說明 EPS 展望的組成要素。

  • Turning now to slide 5, we also wanted to provide investors with a view of where we see the business heading in 2027 as the benefits of our transformation become more fully realized. We expect that our portfolio actions will drive increased penetration in our higher growth, higher-margin focus categories. By year-end 2027, we expect to complete the actions required to deliver the synergies and to achieve the majority of the $650 million target. We also anticipate organic volume growth as we leveraged the Berry acquisition, which created a stronger, more diversified portfolio with expanded product offerings, broader geographic reach and enhanced capabilities and innovation and sustainability. Against this backdrop, we have line of sight to delivering double-digit adjusted EPS growth in calendar year 2027. We are expecting leverage to be approximately 3x by year-end while modestly growing the dividend.

    接著看第 5 張投影片,我們也希望讓投資人了解,隨著轉型效益在 2027 年更充分顯現,我們對業務走向的看法。我們預期投資組合相關行動將提升我們在高成長、高毛利的重點品類中的滲透率。至 2027 年底,我們預期完成實現協同效益所需的相關行動,並達成 6.5 億美元目標中的大部分。我們也預期在運用 Berry 併購效益下帶動有機銷量成長;該併購打造出更強大且更多元的投資組合,擴大產品供應、拓展地理覆蓋,並提升能力、創新與永續表現。在此背景下,我們已可清楚看見於 2027 曆年實現調整後 EPS 兩位數成長的路徑。我們預期至年底槓桿比率約為 3 倍,同時小幅提高股利。

  • We're entering this next chapter from a position of strength. The underlying business is performing well, integration is on track, and we see a compelling path to accelerating earnings growth and cash flow generation over the next several years.

    我們正以強勁的態勢邁入下一個篇章。基礎業務表現良好、整合進度符合規劃,我們也看見在未來數年加速獲利成長與現金流創造的明確且具吸引力的路徑。

  • Moving to slide 6 and our financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year. The business generated quarterly revenue of $6.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.045 billion and adjusted EBIT of $836 million. Each of these metrics increased versus the prior year period, driven by synergy realization, disciplined cost management and one additional month of acquired Berry earnings, which supported further margin expansion during the quarter. Adjusted EPS increased 23% to $1.23 per share for the quarter at the high end of our outlook range. This includes benefits from organic volume growth, strong synergy capture and responsible price and cost management during a period of rapid inflation.

    接著看第 6 張投影片,說明第四季與全年財務表現。本業務本季營收為 64 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 10.45 億美元,調整後 EBIT 為 8.36 億美元。上述各項指標均較去年同期增加,主要受協同效益實現、嚴謹的成本管理,以及併購 Berry 所帶來的額外一個月獲利貢獻所推動,並在本季支持進一步的利潤率擴張。本季調整後 EPS 年增 23% 至每股 1.23 美元,位於我們展望區間的高端。其中包含有機銷量成長、強勁的協同效益實現,以及在快速通膨期間審慎負責的價格與成本管理所帶來的效益。

  • For the fiscal year, free cash flow was $1.3 billion, which was impacted by the Middle East conflict. Steve will discuss these dynamics in further detail later on the call. Today, the Board also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share, which represents a modest increase over the prior year and reflects our long-standing commitment to annual dividend growth.

    就 2026 會計年度而言,自由現金流為 13 億美元,並受到中東衝突影響。Steve 將在稍後的電話會議中更詳細說明這些動態。今日董事會亦宣告每股 0.65 美元的季度股利,較前一年小幅提高,並反映我們長期以來對年度股利成長的承諾。

  • Turning to slide 7, as I mentioned earlier, synergies are tracking ahead of expectations, primarily driven by accelerated execution of our G&A and procurement initiatives. We have also made progress on operational and network synergies, which we expect to benefit earnings growth and productivity over the next two years.

    接著看第 7 頁投影片,如我先前提到的,協同效益的進度超前預期,主要受惠於我們加速推進一般及行政(G&A)與採購計畫的執行。我們在營運與網路協同效益方面也取得進展,預期在未來兩年將有助於獲利成長與生產力提升。

  • Finally, we achieved half of our 3-year growth synergy target this year with new business awards representing nearly $140 million compared to our initial $280 million 3-year goal. As we expected, we're winning new business by bringing together highly complementary product portfolios with participation in attractive categories. This allows us to unlock new opportunities that neither legacy company could have accessed on its own.

    最後,我們今年已達成三年成長協同目標的一半,新業務得標金額接近 1.4 億美元,相較於我們最初設定的三年 2.8 億美元目標。如我們所預期,我們透過整合高度互補的產品組合,並參與具吸引力的品類,持續贏得新業務。這使我們得以解鎖新的機會,而這些機會是任何一家原有公司單靠自身都無法觸及的。

  • Let me give you just one example. In Mexico, we recently extended our relationship with the legacy Amcor customer that specializes in beauty and wellness, so that we are now leveraging expertise and closures from the legacy Berry team to produce caps for their products as well. In fact, just one year into the integration, our pipeline of growth synergies continues to build, which reinforces our long-term expectation that there is greater potential for revenue synergies beyond the initial $280 million three-year target. Keep in mind that fiscal year earnings benefited by a few million dollars as a result of these wins, which are expected to ramp up further in the coming months.

    我只舉一個例子。在墨西哥,我們近期延伸了與原 Amcor 客戶的合作關係;該客戶專注於美容與健康領域,因此我們現在也運用原 Berry 團隊在專業能力與瓶蓋(closures)方面的優勢,為其產品生產瓶蓋。事實上,整合僅一年,我們的成長協同管線仍持續擴大,這也強化了我們的長期預期:營收協同效益的潛力可能高於最初設定的三年 2.8 億美元目標。請記住,受惠於這些得標案,本財政年度的獲利增加了數百萬美元,且預期在未來幾個月將進一步放量。

  • Taking all these synergies together, we achieved $115 million in the fourth quarter, resulting in full-year synergies of $285 million, which were 10% ahead of our initial target. Looking ahead, the organization remains focused on driving out the cost synergies while taking advantage of our enhanced capabilities to deliver growth with our commitment to deliver the total target of $650 million over three years intact.

    綜合上述各項協同效益,我們在第四季達成 1.15 億美元,使全年協同效益達到 2.85 億美元,較我們最初目標高出 10%。展望未來,組織仍將聚焦於持續釋出成本協同效益,同時運用我們強化後的能力推動成長,並維持三年合計達成 6.5 億美元總目標的承諾不變。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.

    接下來我把電話交給 Steve。

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, PK. Moving to slide 8, and beginning with our core portfolio, net sales of approximately $5.7 billion in the quarter, inflected to modestly positive volume growth and was in line with the overall company. For the full year, the core portfolio generated $21 billion in sales with EBIT margins of approximately 12.7% and EBIT dollar growth of 8% ahead of the total company.

    謝謝你,PK。接著看第 8 頁投影片,先從我們的核心產品組合開始,本季淨銷售額約 57 億美元,銷量成長轉為小幅正成長,並與公司整體表現一致。全年而言,核心產品組合創造 210 億美元銷售額,EBIT 利潤率約 12.7%,EBIT 金額成長率為 8%,優於公司整體。

  • As we've discussed previously, the core portfolio includes six strategic focus categories. Within nutrition, we have proteins, liquids, foodservice and pet care as well as healthcare and beauty and wellness, which represent more than 50% of core portfolio sales. These are attractive end markets where we expect that our innovation, customer partnerships and differentiated capabilities will drive sustainable growth and support greater resilience across economic cycles.

    如我們先前討論過,核心產品組合包含六個策略聚焦品類。在營養領域,我們涵蓋蛋白、液體、餐飲服務與寵物照護,以及醫療保健與美容健康,合計占核心產品組合銷售額超過 50%。這些都是具吸引力的終端市場,我們預期創新能力、客戶夥伴關係與差異化能力將帶動可持續成長,並在不同經濟循環中提供更高韌性。

  • During the quarter, we saw strong volume growth in the food service, pet care and protein categories, while liquids and beauty wellness volumes were flat. In healthcare, while overall volumes were down due to softness in lower-margin healthcare categories, underlying growth trends across our healthcare platform remain encouraging and reinforce our confidence in the long-term opportunity in this focus category. In aggregate, volume performance across the focus categories was in line with the core portfolio with trends improving as the year progressed. As PK mentioned earlier, we are pleased with the improved performance of our noncore businesses with performance up significantly in the fourth quarter.

    本季我們在餐飲服務、寵物照護與蛋白品類看到強勁的銷量成長,而液體與美容健康的銷量則持平。在醫療保健方面,雖然因低毛利醫療保健品類疲弱導致整體銷量下滑,但我們醫療保健平台的基本成長趨勢仍令人鼓舞,並強化我們對此聚焦品類長期機會的信心。整體而言,聚焦品類的銷量表現與核心產品組合一致,且隨著年度推進,趨勢持續改善。如 PK 先前提到的,我們對非核心業務表現改善感到滿意,第四季表現顯著提升。

  • Turning to slide 9 and the global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment, where sales increased 16% on a constant currency basis, driven primarily by the Berry acquisition, along with the pass-through of higher raw material costs. On a comparable basis, volumes were up approximately 1% year-over-year. Notably, this represents a sequential improvement of nearly 200 basis points compared with Q3. Across North America and Europe, volumes were up modestly compared with the prior year. Volumes across emerging markets were up low single digits, mainly driven by continued growth in Asia.

    接著看第 9 頁投影片與全球軟包裝解決方案(Flexible Packaging Solutions)事業部,按固定匯率計算銷售額成長 16%,主要受 Berry 併購帶動,並包含較高原物料成本的轉嫁。以可比基礎計算,銷量年增約 1%。值得注意的是,與第三季相比,這代表序列改善接近 200 個基點。在北美與歐洲,銷量較去年小幅成長。新興市場的銷量為低個位數成長,主要由亞洲持續成長所帶動。

  • Adjusted EBIT was up 20% on a constant currency basis to $533 million, primarily driven by acquired earnings, net of divestitures and synergy benefits. On a comparable basis, adjusted EBIT was up approximately 18% and adjusted EBIT margin of 15.1% reflects synergy benefits in line with our expectations. Excluding synergies, comparable earnings were up mid-single digits compared to the prior year.

    調整後 EBIT 按固定匯率計算成長 20% 至 5.33 億美元,主要受惠於併購帶來的獲利(扣除已處分業務)以及協同效益。以可比基礎計算,調整後 EBIT 約成長 18%,調整後 EBIT 利潤率 15.1% 反映的協同效益符合我們的預期。若排除協同效益,可比獲利較去年為中個位數成長。

  • Turning to slide 10 and the Global Rigid Packaging Solutions segment, where sales increased 35% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to the Berry acquisition along with the pass-through of higher raw material costs. On a comparable basis, volumes were up approximately [ 0.5% ] in both the core and noncore businesses. This was sequentially stronger by approximately 200 basis points, driven in part by improvement in both consumer demand and stronger performance in our noncore businesses.

    接著看第 10 頁投影片與全球硬包裝解決方案(Global Rigid Packaging Solutions)事業部,按固定匯率計算銷售額成長 35%,主要來自 Berry 併購以及較高原物料成本的轉嫁。以可比基礎計算,核心與非核心業務的銷量均約成長 [ 0.5% ]。這較前一季強勁約 200 個基點,部分受惠於消費需求改善,以及我們非核心業務表現轉強。

  • By region, volume growth was driven by developed markets with sequential improvement in both Europe and North America. Adjusted EBIT was $352 million, up 57% over last year, on a constant currency basis, primarily driven by acquired earnings, net of divestitures and synergy benefits. On a comparable basis and excluding noncore businesses, adjusted EBIT was up approximately 24% compared to the prior year, primarily due to synergy benefits as well as volume improvement. Adjusted EBIT margin was 12.3%, a 180 basis points higher than the prior year. Excluding the noncore businesses, adjusted EBIT margin was 13.3%.

    按地區來看,銷量成長由成熟市場帶動,歐洲與北美皆呈現序列改善。調整後 EBIT 為 3.52 億美元,按固定匯率計算較去年成長 57%,主要受惠於併購帶來的獲利(扣除已處分業務)以及協同效益。以可比基礎計算並排除非核心業務後,調整後 EBIT 較去年約成長 24%,主要來自協同效益以及銷量改善。調整後 EBIT 利潤率為 12.3%,較去年提高 180 個基點。若排除非核心業務,調整後 EBIT 利潤率為 13.3%。

  • Moving to free cash flow and the balance sheet on slide 11, after funding $290 million of Berry transaction, restructuring and integration-related cash costs, free cash flow for the year was $1.3 billion, which was $200 million below our outlook range. This was primarily driven by working capital impacts across inventories and receivables due to the Middle East conflict that were higher than expected as well as accelerated integration spending to expedite synergy capture.

    接著看第 11 頁投影片的自由現金流與資產負債表,在支付 2.9 億美元的 Berry 交易、重整與整合相關現金成本後,全年自由現金流為 13 億美元,較我們的展望區間低 2 億美元。主要原因是中東衝突對營運資金造成的影響(涵蓋存貨與應收帳款)高於預期,以及為加速取得協同效益而加快整合支出。

  • Importantly we target recovering more than $500 million in cash over the next 12 months, primarily driven by the reversal of working capital impacts related to the Middle East conflict and other initiatives to structurally improve working capital. Despite lower-than-expected cash generation, leverage at quarter end was 3.5x, in line with our expectations, driven partly by proceeds from the divestitures. As PK mentioned, we are expecting leverage to be approximately 3x by the end of calendar year 2027, driven by robust free cash flow generation which underscores our commitment to an investment-grade credit rating.

    重要的是,我們的目標是在未來 12 個月回收超過 5 億美元現金,主要來自中東衝突相關營運資金影響的回轉,以及其他用以結構性改善營運資金的措施。儘管現金創造低於預期,季末槓桿倍數為 3.5 倍,符合我們的預期,部分受惠於處分案的所得款項。如 PK 所提,我們預期在 2027 年曆年年底前槓桿倍數約降至 3 倍,主要由強勁的自由現金流創造所驅動,這也凸顯我們對投資等級信用評等的承諾。

  • Moving to our transition period outlook on slide 12, we expect to deliver adjusted EPS in the range of $1.80 to $1.90 per share during the transition period. Walking through the building blocks from the $1.83 adjusted EPS we reported in the prior year period, we expect a $0.04 per share unfavorable impact from the divestitures that we have completed to date, which results in baseline prior year adjusted EPS of $1.79. From there, we expect a $0.10 to $0.12 unfavorable impact from higher interest and taxes and a $0.13 to $0.21 positive impact to adjusted EPS and from synergy capture and net operating performance, which represents roughly double-digit growth at the midpoint.

    接著看第 12 頁投影片的過渡期間展望,我們預期在過渡期間的調整後 EPS 將落在每股 1.80 至 1.90 美元區間。以我們在去年同期所報告的每股調整後 EPS 1.83 美元為起點,已完成的處分預期將帶來每股 0.04 美元的不利影響,使去年基準的每股調整後 EPS 為 1.79 美元。接著,我們預期較高的利息與稅負將帶來每股 0.10 至 0.12 美元的不利影響;而協同效益取得與淨營運表現將對調整後 EPS 帶來每股 0.13 至 0.21 美元的正面影響,以區間中點計約為雙位數成長。

  • We expect leverage to be in the range of 3.5x to 3.6x on December 31, 2026, in line with seasonally lower earnings and cash flow generation in the September and December quarters. As we reflect on the fourth quarter results, we are pleased with our improved operating performance, which demonstrates the strength of the combined organization as a leading global consumer packaging company. As we move into the transition period and look ahead to calendar year 2027, we are looking forward to consistently delivering for our customers, our employees and our shareholders.

    我們預期截至2026年12月31日的槓桿比率將落在3.5倍至3.6倍之間,這與9月與12月季度因季節性因素導致獲利與現金流生成較低相一致。回顧第四季業績,我們對營運表現的改善感到滿意,這展現了合併後組織作為全球領先消費性包裝公司的實力。隨著我們進入過渡期並展望2027曆年,我們期待能持續穩定地為客戶、員工與股東創造價值。

  • Thank you for your time today. Let me turn the call back over to PK.

    感謝各位今天撥冗參與。我把電話交回給PK。

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • When we outlined our expectations for fiscal 2026 more than a year ago, we targeted double-digit adjusted EPS growth, and we delivered on that commitment. We finished the year strong despite a demanding operating environment driven by disciplined execution across the business. I'd like to thank our global team for their hard work, dedication and commitment to serving our customers.

    在一年多前我們提出對2026財年的預期時,我們設定了調整後每股盈餘(EPS)達到兩位數成長的目標,而我們也兌現了這項承諾。儘管營運環境嚴峻,我們仍在全公司紀律執行的帶動下強勁收官。我要感謝我們全球團隊的辛勤付出、投入與致力於服務客戶的承諾。

  • As we move into the transition period, our confidence in our momentum continues to build. With our integration efforts largely behind us, we are now seeing the benefits of this global consumer packaging combination translating into stronger performance. While we have accomplished a great deal over the past year, I believe we are still in the early stages of unlocking the full potential of Amcor.

    隨著我們進入過渡期,我們對自身動能的信心持續提升。整合工作大致已告一段落,我們現在正看到這次全球消費性包裝合併所帶來的效益,正轉化為更強勁的表現。雖然過去一年我們已完成許多工作,但我相信我們仍處於釋放Amcor全部潛力的早期階段。

  • That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

    以上為我們預先準備的發言。接線員,請開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) John Purtell, Macquarie.

    (接線員指示)John Purtell,Macquarie。

  • John Purtell - Analyst

    John Purtell - Analyst

  • Just a question on working capital there, Steve. Just the $500 million of Middle East sort of working capital impacts, you expect to get that back, obviously, over the next 12 months, I think is what you said. How much of that do you expect to get back in the next 6 months as distinct from 12? And just you mentioned structurally improving working capital collection, any color there.

    Steve,我想問一下營運資金的問題。關於中東那邊大約5億美元的營運資金影響,你說過預期在未來12個月內會回收回來。那麼在接下來6個月內,你預期能回收多少(相較於12個月)?另外你提到在結構性改善營運資金回收方面,有沒有更多細節可以分享?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, John, it's Steve, and thanks for joining us this evening as well for the call. You described it well. We've cumulatively have about a $500 million impact from the Middle East conflict. The original estimate was around $300 million, moved to $500 million. By the way, that $200 million increase that we described is primarily accounts receivable driven.

    是的,John,我是Steve,也謝謝你今晚加入我們的電話會議。你描述得很到位。中東衝突累計對我們造成約5億美元的影響。最初估計約3億美元,後來上修到5億美元。順帶一提,我們提到增加的那2億美元主要是由應收帳款所驅動。

  • So our customers, as they were taking on the incremental pricing associated with our products, they're paying on terms, but they were, in many ways, managing their own balance sheets and we saw a little bit of an increase in our days sales larger,slightly larger than expected.

    因此,當客戶承擔我們產品相關的額外漲價時,他們仍依合約付款條件付款,但在很多方面也在管理自己的資產負債表,因此我們看到應收帳款週轉天數略有上升,且略高於原先預期。

  • As we mentioned, we expect to get the $500 million back over the next 12 months. The exact timing over the next 6 months, we certainly expect to make progress. So if you put that into the $100 million, $200 million, $300 million range. I think that's a fair assumption for this first 6 months, if you will. Some of that will, of course, depend upon how are the structural realities of continued supply availability and the like, which right now is in a very good place. And so we do expect to methodically get that $500 million back over the next 12 months and would get a portion of it back here during this transition period.

    如我們所提到的,我們預期在未來12個月內把這5億美元回收回來。至於接下來6個月的確切時點,我們當然預期會有所進展。因此你可以把它放在1億、2億到3億美元的區間來看。我認為就前6個月而言,這是合理的假設。其中一部分當然也取決於持續供應可得性等結構性現實,而目前供應狀況非常良好。因此,我們確實預期在未來12個月內有步驟地把這5億美元回收回來,並在這段過渡期內先回收其中一部分。

  • And by the way -- sorry, John, I apologize to you just so I hit your answer. Structurally, it's the kind of things you would expect from us. We've got very specific goals for days of inventory that we're carrying for example, both at the raw material level and the finished goods level, specific targets for our day sales outstanding and then a continued positive march on increases in days payables. It will be across all three major components of our working capital.

    另外——抱歉,John,我向你致歉,我只是想把你的問題回答完整。在結構性改善方面,就是你對我們會採取的作法所能預期的那些。例如,我們對庫存天數有非常明確的目標,包括原物料層級與成品層級;對應收帳款週轉天數也有具體目標,並且會持續正向推進應付帳款天數的提升。這將涵蓋營運資金的三大主要組成項目。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

    Ghansham Panjabi,Baird。

  • Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst

    Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst

  • PK and Steve, just curious as to the price cost dynamic during the second quarter, was there any benefit? I mean, obviously, it was a chaotic backdrop with raw materials and then your own pricing initiatives. So I'm just curious as to how that should cut specific to 2Q. And then if there was any benefit or negative, I guess, -- how should we think about price costs evolving into the back half of the year? What do you have invited in guidance?

    PK和Steve,我想了解第二季的價格與成本動態,是否有任何助益?我的意思是,當時原物料以及你們自身的定價措施都使背景相當混亂。所以我想知道,這對第二季(2Q)具體而言應該如何反映。另外,如果有任何正面或負面影響——我們應該如何看待價格與成本在下半年將如何演變?你們在指引中納入了哪些假設?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Ghansham, it's Steve. I'll take that on. In our fourth quarter, the quarter that we just completed here with our fiscal year, we had about $280 million of price realization, which was the pass-through of the vast majority of our inflation. So as we anticipated, the price pass-through was in line with the overall inflation that we experienced and we would expect that to continue to be the case as we manage through the transition period. And so overall, the stability of that price cost relationship was very good in our fourth quarter, and we would expect to maintain that relative relationship here over the coming quarters through the transition period.

    Ghansham,我是Steve。我來回答。在我們第四季,也就是剛結束的這個財年季度,我們約有2.8億美元的價格實現(price realization),也就是把我們大部分的通膨成本轉嫁出去。因此如我們所預期,價格轉嫁與我們所經歷的整體通膨大致一致,而在我們度過過渡期的過程中,我們也預期會持續如此。總體而言,第四季價格與成本之間的關係相當穩定且良好,我們也預期在接下來幾個季度、整個過渡期內維持這樣的相對關係。

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Ghansham, I may want to make an additional comment here, which -- it's not so much a modeling question, but just taking a step back. We've been very pleased with the way how the organization failed through, particularly the fourth quarter in light of the inflation that came at us very quickly, obviously, on the back of the Middle East conflict. I think about it this way. I mean, we were still handling the integration. Most of that now is behind us, but halfway through fiscal '26, we were still in the middle of it, and the organization and the team were tested, and they performed excellently against that. And I've been very pleased with the performance of the organization to essentially recover what we're seeing on the input side.

    Ghansham,我想在這裡補充一點——這不太算是建模問題,而是退一步來看。我們對組織在第四季的表現感到非常滿意,尤其是在通膨因中東衝突而快速襲來的情況下。我會這樣看待:當時我們仍在處理整合。現在大多已經在我們身後了,但在26財年過半時,我們仍在整合的過程中,組織與團隊受到考驗,而他們表現得非常出色。我對組織的表現非常滿意,因為我們基本上已經把投入端所看到的影響恢復回來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nathan Reilly, UBS.

    Nathan Reilly,UBS。

  • Nathan Reilly - Analyst

    Nathan Reilly - Analyst

  • The question is just in relation to the, I guess, the comment that you provided there in terms of the FY27 double-digit EPS growth outlook. You've highlighted you're expecting a return to organic growth. Just kind of keen to get a bit of an understanding in terms of what you're assuming there in terms of broader market volume lead growth? And also just in the context of, I guess, the outcome of bringing the businesses together, I think at the time you highlighted that the combination should be able to deliver kind of growth, about 1% or so above market. So just trying to get an understanding of how those 2 points are playing into that view around your organic growth outlook returning in '27?

    我的問題是關於你剛才提到的FY27兩位數EPS成長展望。你們強調預期將回到有機成長。我想更了解你們在那裡對整體市場量(volume)成長的假設是什麼?另外,從把兩個業務整合在一起的成果來看,我記得當時你們提到合併後應該能夠帶來大約比市場高1%左右的成長。所以我想了解這兩點如何影響你們對27年有機成長展望回歸的看法?

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Nathan, it's a great question. I'll take that, this is PK. Let me take a step back here. It may feel like a lengthy answer, but I want to forget the questions that you've actually asked. Let me tell you first, we're pretty excited about calendar '27.

    Nathan,這是個很好的問題。我來回答,我是PK。我先退一步說明。這個回答可能會稍微長一點,但我想先不要直接切入你剛才問的問題。我先告訴你,我們對2027曆年感到非常振奮。

  • And the excitement comes from the fact that you got to look at this as this being the first pretty much clean year in quotes after the combination of Amcor and Berry.

    而令人振奮之處在於,你可以把這視為 Amcor 與 Berry 合併後,幾乎第一個「相對乾淨」的一年(打引號)。

  • In fiscal '26, we had essentially two targets. There was integration and enabling growth. And we were very busy with the integration. I just made a comment and I think we are in a good spot now that we exit fiscal '26. And you'll have that team in the organization that actually performed really well through the challenging operating environment, you have that same team sort of enter into calendar year 2027.

    在 26 財年,我們基本上有兩個目標。一個是整合,另一個是賦能成長。而我們在整合方面非常忙碌。我剛剛也提到,我認為在我們走出 26 財年之際,現在處於一個不錯的位置。而你會看到那支在充滿挑戰的營運環境中表現非常出色的團隊,以同樣的團隊陣容進入 2027 曆年。

  • And in terms of the growth side, there were a number of things that we have done. And I want to remind everybody, we're very clear in terms of our portfolio and where we want to play. Think about the whole conversation around the core versus noncore. We'll expect to make more progress on the noncore side of the business.

    至於成長面,我們做了不少事情。我想提醒大家,我們對於投資組合以及我們想參與的領域非常清楚。想想整個關於核心與非核心的討論。我們預期在非核心業務方面會取得更多進展。

  • But then when you look at the core, we're also very clear in terms of how this company is positioned. We're playing in nutrition, we're playing in health, beauty and wellness and we're playing in specialties. And when you double-click on that, you find 6 focus categories. Steve has just laid them out in our prepared comments. And they already make up more than 50% of the top line of the company. And as they will grow, obviously, that will further increase. So very clear on where we want to play, and that focus will yield success.

    但當你看核心業務時,我們也非常清楚公司如何定位。我們布局在營養、健康、美容與身心健康,以及特種領域。當你再深入一層來看,你會發現 6 個重點類別。Steve 剛才已在我們事先準備的發言中把它們列出來。而這些類別已經占公司營收(top line)的 50% 以上。而隨著它們成長,顯然占比還會進一步提高。因此我們非常清楚要在哪裡競爭,而這樣的聚焦將帶來成功。

  • The other thing is, and this maybe comes back a little more to your question is how do we win in those categories. And on that end, there's two things. We have the combination of the two companies, Amcor and Berry, which will translate more into performance going forward. And you've heard us talk about a more global or broader -- first of all, broader product range. The company's are together more global than they were before each on their own.

    另外一點,也許更回到你的問題:我們要如何在這些類別中取勝。在這方面有兩件事。Amcor 與 Berry 兩家公司合併,將在未來轉化為更好的績效表現。你也聽我們談到更全球化或更廣泛——首先,是更廣的產品範圍。兩家公司合在一起後,比各自單獨時更具全球化布局。

  • And we talked about capabilities like an innovation and sustainability that we can bring to the market. And those things are really driving the growth synergies where we are making really good progress. And I expect that really just to be at the beginning. I think we're scratching the surface here. There's going to be a lot more opportunity, so we'll translate that.

    我們也談到像創新與永續等能力,能帶到市場上。而這些確實正在推動成長協同效益,我們進展非常不錯。我預期這其實才剛開始。我認為我們只是觸及表面。未來會有更多機會,我們會把它轉化出來。

  • And then the other piece that gives us confidence for growth in calendar '27 is the fact that we have, as I said before, enabled growth between the two companies. So it would have been easy for us just really to focus on taking cost out in the combination and the integration. But we did something else. We focused the companies more on service on quality and customer delight. And we're bringing more tools to our frontline teams in order to drive better growth. And that combination, leveraging the benefits of Amcor and Berry combined, plus the growth enablers that I just spoke to they give us good reason to believe that we will see outperformance versus market.

    另外一個讓我們對 27 曆年成長有信心的因素,是如我先前所說,我們已在兩家公司之間把成長「賦能」起來。所以我們本來很容易只專注在合併與整合中把成本拿掉。但我們做了別的事。我們讓公司更聚焦在服務、品質與客戶滿意度。我們也為第一線團隊帶來更多工具,以推動更好的成長。這樣的組合——運用 Amcor 與 Berry 合併的效益,再加上我剛提到的成長賦能——讓我們有充分理由相信,我們將能相對於市場表現更佳。

  • I think at this point in time, you'll probably see us more move with the market, and the market is more positive than what we've seen in the last couple of quarters taking advantage of that. We're seeing green shoots. There's no question. When I just think about protein and pet care. We're doing really well. That's collectively somewhere between 15% and 20% of the company. But going forward, we'll see more outperformance I hope that answers the questions.

    我認為在目前這個時間點,你可能會看到我們更跟著市場走,而市場比過去幾個季度更為正向,我們也會把握這點。我們看到一些復甦跡象。這毫無疑問。就拿蛋白質與寵物照護來說。我們做得非常好。這兩者合計大約占公司 15% 到 20%。但往前看,我們希望能看到更多超越市場的表現——希望這回答了你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ramoun Lazar, Jefferies.

    Ramoun Lazar,Jefferies。

  • Ramoun Lazar - Analyst

    Ramoun Lazar - Analyst

  • PK and Steve, maybe if I could just follow up on that volume on those volume comments. Just anything in that quarter that stood out in terms of potentially one-off benefits to your business or whether the volume performance is a more broad-based improvement over the quarter. And I guess just focusing a bit further on some of the end markets, what are you seeing? You mentioned green shoots. I guess if you could just elaborate a bit more on what you're seeing on the volume side that would be great.

    PK 和 Steve,我想就你們剛才關於出貨量(volume)的評論追問一下。那一季是否有任何特別突出的因素,例如可能對你們業務帶來一次性(one-off)利多,或是這次的出貨量表現其實是更廣泛的季度性改善?另外再更聚焦一些終端市場,你們看到了什麼?你們提到一些復甦跡象。如果可以再多談一點你們在出貨量面看到的情況就太好了。

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure, Ramoun, happy to do that. Look, you started off the question with Q4. Are there any one-offs or developments of one-off characters driving the volume performance. It's a fair question. We actually spent some time on trying to figure out if that's the case.

    當然可以,Ramoun,很樂意說明。你一開始的問題是關於第四季。是否有任何一次性因素或一次性事件推動了出貨量表現。這是個合理的問題。我們確實花了一些時間去判斷是否存在這種情況。

  • We believe that there would have potentially been two factors that could be a bit more of a one-off character. One is just simply in an accelerating inflationary environment at the request of our customers to buy ahead that could have been one, and the other one could have been pretty much around the World Cup. Those were the two things that I would carve out that could have some one-off character.

    我們認為可能有兩個因素,帶有比較一次性的特徵。第一是在通膨加速的環境下,應客戶要求提前採購,這可能是一個;第二則大致與世界盃有關。這兩點是我會單獨挑出來、可能具有一次性特徵的因素。

  • So we did some digging around that. And I can tell you that we wouldn't have had like a couple of customers that did buy ahead or in terms of the World Cup, we did see some strengthening of our beverage business, also in the food service category. But when we add it all up, we don't think that this adds up to anything that would be material to the volume performance in the fourth quarter. So that's your first question.

    所以我們針對這些做了一些深入分析。我可以告訴你,我們確實有少數客戶提前採購;至於世界盃,我們也看到飲料業務有所走強,餐飲服務(food service)類別亦然。但把所有因素加總起來,我們不認為這些對第四季出貨量表現構成任何具重大性(material)的影響。這是你第一個問題的回答。

  • In fact, when I talk to the volume performance, it's been pretty broad. And across the business abroad across core versus noncore, it's been broad between the two segments. It's also been broad when you look at the focus categories or also the regional performance, actually. So it's been a pretty strong broad-based volume performance in the quarter, which we like.

    事實上,談到出貨量表現,它相當廣泛。在整體業務上、在核心與非核心之間,都呈現廣泛改善;在兩個事業部門之間也很普遍。同樣地,無論看重點類別或區域表現,也都相當普遍。所以這一季的出貨量表現是相當強勁、且以廣泛面向為基礎的,這是我們樂見的。

  • In terms of some highlights, I don't want to make this too long-winded here, but emerging markets, we've seen really good growth throughout the whole year continuing into the fourth quarter. Developed markets improved sequentially. We're talking about North America, which is back to growth. Remember in the third quarter, we had the winter forms. Europe improved sequentially. And focus categories, as I said before, were pretty much in line with the overall business.

    至於一些亮點,我不想在這裡講得太冗長,但新興市場我們看到全年都維持非常好的成長,並延續到第四季。成熟市場則呈現逐季改善。我們指的是北美,已回到成長。記得在第三季,我們遇到冬季風暴。歐洲也逐季改善。而重點類別,如我先前所說,基本上與整體業務表現一致。

  • And then we -- I talked about some green shoots, foodservice, very strong performance petcare continues to perform really well on the back of our material science and the solutions that we can bring to market. Protein continues to excel. Remember, on the back of the motor acquisition, we got ourselves into the equipment business. We're now having a significant share of new equipment installations in the market, which will going forward and which are starting to pull consumables. So those are the type of green shoots that we're seeing.

    另外,我提到的一些復甦跡象:餐飲服務表現非常強勁;寵物照護在我們材料科學以及能帶到市場的解決方案帶動下,持續表現非常好。蛋白質業務也持續出色。記得在 Motor 併購之後,我們切入了設備業務。我們目前在市場上的新設備安裝占有顯著份額,未來這將、而且也已開始帶動耗材需求。所以這些就是我們看到的那類復甦跡象。

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Ramoun, it's Steve. Just to add to PK's comments, one of the -- we do have, of course, the view into July. And on a positive front, July continued consistent with Q4. And so in terms of kind of net pull forward and the like, we just didn't observe anything, and July is a good indicator that some of the positive momentum that we've seen from a volume perspective has continued here into the first quarter with our July results now in hand.

    Ramoun,我是 Steve。補充一下 PK 的評論,我們當然已經能看到 7 月的情況。從正面來看,7 月的表現延續了與第四季一致的趨勢。因此,就所謂的提前拉貨(net pull forward)等而言,我們並沒有觀察到任何跡象;而 7 月是一個很好的指標,顯示我們從出貨量角度所看到的一些正向動能,隨著 7 月結果到手,也已延續到第一季。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • George Staphos, Bank of America Securities.

    George Staphos,美國銀行證券(Bank of America Securities)。

  • George Staphos - Analyst

    George Staphos - Analyst

  • Thanks for all the color and the commentary. My question is going to be around some margin factors relatedly. So in reading the press release and reading the material guys, price mix was related as negative, even though you're obviously passing through inflation. And I was wondering what was driving that price mix negative, if I read it correctly in the quarter? And what are the implications into the transition period and kind of a related bonus piece, I think you gave us the EBIT performance in flexibles ex synergy, did you give us that for rigid? And if not, could you provide that?

    感謝提供這麼多背景與評論。我的問題會聚焦在一些與此相關的毛利因素。我在閱讀新聞稿與你們的資料時看到,價格/組合(price mix)被描述為負面,儘管你們顯然正在轉嫁通膨。我想請教,若我對本季的理解無誤,是什麼因素導致價格/組合為負?以及這對過渡期間(transition period)有何影響;另外一個加分題:我想你們提供了彈性包材(flexibles)在不含協同效益(ex synergy)下的 EBIT 表現,那剛性包材(rigid)也有提供嗎?如果沒有,能否提供?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Thanks, George. Let me touch on those. I think -- in terms of looking at the top line, you touched on it, what we've seen on price/mix, which excludes all of the raw material pass-through that minus 1% has kind of been consistent with what we've observed over the last year. There's always bits of movement kind of in the competitive dynamic, the reearning of business, et cetera. So that minus 1 is very consistent, and doesn't really have that negative impact on our economics.

    是的。謝謝你,George。我來回應這些問題。我想——就營收端來看,你也提到了,我們看到的價格/組合(不含所有原物料轉嫁)為負 1%,這與我們過去一年觀察到的情況一致。競爭態勢、重新爭取業務(reearning of business)等因素,總會帶來一些變動。所以這個負 1% 非常一致,對我們的經濟性其實沒有真正的負面影響。

  • Repeating what I mentioned earlier, $280 million of top line was pass-through consistent with our inflation, no impact on our economics in total. It does, to your point, at $280 million in the quarter, that's roughly 4%, 5% top-line growth. It has some minor implications on margins, but overall margin performance was quite good.

    重申我先前提到的,營收端有 2.8 億美元是因應通膨的轉嫁,整體而言對我們的經濟性沒有影響。但如你所說,單季 2.8 億美元大約相當於 4% 到 5% 的營收成長。這對毛利率會有些微影響,但整體毛利表現相當不錯。

  • And I think in terms of your EBIT question, we really, if you look at on a -- I think the key thing, George, on a comparable basis which is the lower left portion of our segment slides, that's really where you can see that we earned on the improvements sequentially on the volume growth, that 200 basis points of volume improvement quarter-to-quarter was successfully earned on. And you can see that in the margin growth. And so I think as you're looking at the segment reporting, that lower left corner is kind of the best place to focus because it's comparable on a like-for-like basis and gives you a sense for the margins.

    至於你問的 EBIT,我們其實——如果你看以——我認為關鍵是,George,在可比基礎上,也就是我們分部簡報投影片左下角那一塊,從那裡你可以看到我們如何在出貨量成長的帶動下,逐季改善並把成果「賺到手」:出貨量逐季改善 200 個基點,已成功反映在獲利上。你也能在毛利率提升中看到這點。因此,我認為你在看分部揭露時,左下角是最值得聚焦的地方,因為它是同口徑(like-for-like)的可比數據,能讓你掌握毛利率的狀況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Wilson, RBC.

    Mark Wilson,RBC。

  • Mark Wilson - Analyst

    Mark Wilson - Analyst

  • PK and Steve, it's probably a question for you just in relation to the asset sales, and thanks for outlining the impact going forward. Just wondering if there was a gain on the sale of the assets in the period? And if so, where was that booked?

    PK 和 Steve,我想這題可能是問你們,關於資產出售;也謝謝你們說明對未來的影響。想請問本期資產出售是否有認列處分利益?如果有,是記在哪裡?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • There was a modest gain on one of the sales of the assets. It is not included in our adjusted EPS figures. So it's below the line. It's down in our the figures that we have for the adjustments around transaction-related costs, et cetera. So it's not -- there are no gains or losses inside of the $4.02 EPS that we shared with you, if that's the question, just to make sure I'm answering it for you.

    其中一筆資產出售有一個小幅的處分利益。它沒有納入我們的調整後 EPS(adjusted EPS)數字。所以它是在損益表「線下」(below the line)。它列在我們針對交易相關成本等調整項目的數字裡。因此,如果你的問題是要確認:我們跟你們分享的每股盈餘 4.02 美元裡面沒有包含任何處分損益——答案是沒有;我只是確保我有回答到你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo.

    Gabe Hajde,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。

  • Gabrial Hajde - Analyst

    Gabrial Hajde - Analyst

  • Two quick ones, if we're doing our math correct in the first half, implied EBITDA is somewhere around $1.8 billion. And I appreciate that you're not giving us kind of calendar '27 guide other than talking about it, I guess, contracts with double-digit EPS growth and synergy realization. But if I tack on the remaining kind of synergies and then make our own assumptions about growth. It's something in that (inaudible) to $4 billion range. Anything in that -- those bridge items that you would kind of steer me towards.

    兩個簡短問題:如果我們上半年計算無誤,推算的 EBITDA 大約在 18 億美元左右。我也理解你們除了談到合約帶來的 EPS 雙位數成長與協同效益實現之外,並沒有提供 2027 年曆年的指引。但如果我把剩餘的協同效益加上去,再對成長做一些自己的假設,大概會落在(聽不清)到 40 億美元的區間。在這些橋接項目(bridge items)上,有沒有什麼你會建議我特別留意的?

  • And then the second one, it looks like CapEx is starting to accelerate here in the first half. I don't know if that's -- I should say first half, but sorry, transition period. I don't know if that's timing related or if we should read anything into that?

    第二個問題,看起來資本支出(CapEx)在上半年開始加速。我不知道這是否——我應該說是上半年,但抱歉,是過渡期間。我不確定這只是時點因素,還是我們應該從中解讀出其他訊息?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • No, thanks, Dave. I'll start, and PK can add any color relative to the strategic implications. But fundamentally, You're correct in how you're observing what is implied both in terms of the transition period and into 2027, which is fundamentally mid-single-digit EBITDA growth. That's really kind of at the core of the assumptions that we will continue to have our synergy benefits as well as some modest volume growth. And there's always moving parts, by the way, of other things that are moving in and out. But from an EBITDA perspective, 6 months next 12 months, so over the '18 kind of that mid-single-digit EBITDA growth is implied and it is then inside of the range that you just provided.

    不,謝謝你,Dave。我先回答,PK 也可以補充一些與策略意涵相關的說明。但基本上,你對過渡期間以及到 2027 年的推算方式是正確的:核心假設就是 EBITDA 以中個位數成長(mid-single-digit EBITDA growth)。這主要建立在我們持續取得協同效益,以及一些溫和的出貨量成長。當然,另外也有一些其他項目會進進出出、持續變動。但就 EBITDA 而言,從接下來 6 個月到再往後 12 個月,也就是約 18 個月的期間,隱含的就是中個位數的 EBITDA 成長,而這也落在你剛剛提到的區間之內。

  • And so I think you're overall in line there. What you've seen on CapEx is roughly 5% of sales. We've used that quite a bit to talk about what we think is steady and consistent CapEx to support our growth initiatives. And so you're seeing us invest at that level, not materially above historic levels, but we believe that, that 5% is a good harbinger for our ability to grow organically and invest back in the business.

    所以整體來看,你的方向是對的。至於你看到的資本支出,大約是銷售額的 5%。我們常用這個比例來說明:我們認為這是穩定且一致的 CapEx 水準,用以支持我們的成長計畫。因此你看到我們以這個水準投資,並沒有顯著高於歷史水準;但我們相信 5% 是一個良好的指標,代表我們有能力推動有機成長並回投資於業務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Keith Chau, MST Marquee.

    Keith Chau,MST Marquee。

  • Keith Chau - Analyst

    Keith Chau - Analyst

  • Steve, I just want to ask you a question on free cash flow for the next 12 months? I mean I appreciate the comments you made here about getting the $500 million of working capital impossback. But I just want to confirm something with you. So last year, I think free cash flow started -- or the target started at $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion. Out of that, this -- for the next 12 months, you should be getting the $500 million back in the working capital imposed from the Middle East conflict. Hopefully, everything kind of settles from that. And then plus, you get incremental synergies as well.

    Steve,我想問接下來 12 個月的自由現金流(free cash flow)。我很感謝你剛才提到,會把因中東衝突而被迫占用的 5 億美元營運資金(working capital)拿回來。但我想跟你確認一件事。去年我記得自由現金流一開始——或目標一開始是 18 億到 19 億美元。在此基礎上,接下來 12 個月,你應該會拿回這 5 億美元、因中東衝突而被占用的營運資金。希望相關情勢能夠逐步穩定。另外,你們也會有額外的協同效益進來。

  • So we should be staring down the barrel of $2.5 billion or so of free cash flow for the next 12 months. So the stub period plus the first half of your next calendar year or new fiscal year. Would you agree that $2.5 billion is a reasonable number to target for the next 12 months?

    所以我們接下來 12 個月的自由現金流,應該大概會看到 25 億美元左右。也就是這個短期期間(stub period)加上你們下一個曆年或新財年的上半年。你是否同意,以接下來 12 個月 25 億美元左右作為目標,是一個合理的數字?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Thanks for that, Keith. I think maybe playing that back to you in similar words. If you look at kind of the next 12 to 18 months, which is the pathway to 3x levered, it's really 3 things, and you had them embedded in your question. One is to Gabe's question, continuation of mid-single-digit EBITDA growth.

    是的。謝謝你,Keith。我想也許用類似的話把你的意思再複述一次。如果你看接下來大約12到18個月,也就是通往3倍槓桿的路徑,實際上有3件事,而你在問題裡已經把它們都包含進去了。第一個是回應Gabe的問題:EBITDA持續以中個位數成長。

  • So the EBITDA continuing to grow, that's part of the pathway. And then as you just said, roughly $2.5 billion of free cash flow would be a combination of the natural cash flow capabilities of the business, EBITDA minus CapEx, minus the interest and taxes plus the $500 million of return from the Middle East. And so you're in line with the kind of assumptions or the pathway, if you will, towards the end of 2027, 3x levered because all of that kind of correlates together, I think, if that's inherent in your question.

    所以EBITDA持續成長,這是路徑的一部分。然後如你剛才所說,大約25億美元的自由現金流,會是企業自然現金流能力的組合,也就是EBITDA減資本支出(CapEx),再減利息與稅金,並加上來自中東的5億美元回收。因此,你的假設或所謂的路徑,與我們在2027年底達到3倍槓桿的方向是一致的,因為這些因素彼此是相關聯的;我想這也是你問題內含的意思。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt Roberts, Raymond James.

    Matt Roberts,Raymond James。

  • Matt Roberts - Equity Analyst

    Matt Roberts - Equity Analyst

  • 4Q EPS is a 23% I think you had very two months of that in the prior year. So now that Berry is fully in the September quarter is still down at the midpoint. Steve, you items, I believe, drags from interest and taxes. But should EBIT be up hitting earlier and July volumes appear to be similar and then slightly up to June Q? Or any other puts and takes there on the EBIT line looking at the September quarter and second half?

    第四季EPS是23%,我想你在前一年只有兩個月納入其中。所以現在Berry已完整納入9月季度,但在中位數仍然是下滑。Steve,你的項目我相信主要是利息與稅負的拖累。但EBIT是否應該上升、並更早反映?而且7月的量看起來與6月季度相近,甚至略高一些?就9月季度與下半年來看,在EBIT這一行還有其他的增減因素嗎?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Matt, let me touch on that. You're really referencing page 12 on the outlook, and you summarized it well. That $0.13 to $0.21 bridge there that you see think of that at the midpoint, there's roughly $80 million of after-tax earnings or roughly $100 million of EBIT, and so we do expect to see some EBIT improvement year-over-year. As I mentioned earlier, a lot of that is, of course, the capture of the $110 million of EBIT synergies that's implied in our in our outlook, we'll get a little bit of favorability year over year, some reduced depreciation that impacts EBIT.

    是的,Matt,我來回應一下。你其實是在指引展望的第12頁,你總結得很到位。你看到的那個0.13到0.21美元的橋接,若以中位數來看,大約相當於8,000萬美元的稅後盈餘或約1億美元的EBIT,因此我們確實預期EBIT會年增改善。如我先前提到,其中很大一部分當然是我們展望中所隱含、將捕捉到的1.1億美元EBIT協同效益;此外,折舊費用下降也會對EBIT帶來一些年對年有利影響。

  • That's as we've dialed in the depreciation for the Berry assets that we've acquired. And there's always, of course, some other puts and takes. But EBIT and EBITDA improvement is, of course, critical as we continue to drive the business forward. It's offset, as you referenced by some of the increased tax an assumption of 16% in the first half, returning towards a more normalized but low 19%. And then the realities of some of the refinancings that were completed in the prior year, which is a modest increase in our interest expense. But that bridging on EBIT is kind of, I think, critical to your question.

    這是因為我們已把所收購的Berry資產折舊更精準地校準。當然也總會有一些其他的增減因素。但EBIT與EBITDA的改善,對於我們持續推動業務向前發展至關重要。如你所提到的,部分會被稅負上升所抵銷:上半年假設稅率為16%,之後回到較正常但仍偏低的19%左右。另外,前一年完成的一些再融資安排,現實上也使我們的利息費用小幅增加。不過,這個EBIT的橋接我認為正是你問題的關鍵。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brook Campbell-Crawford, Barrenjoey.

    Brook Campbell-Crawford,Barrenjoey。

  • Brook Campbell-Crawford - Analyst

    Brook Campbell-Crawford - Analyst

  • Just one on incentive compensation. I think there might have been and some sort of benefit in the June quarter, perhaps, given sort of accruals and things for incentive comp and perhaps that might have wind in the first half. Do you mind maybe just stepping through that dynamic in (inaudible) something we need to be across this. .

    我想問一個關於激勵薪酬的問題。我認為6月季度可能有某種程度的利益,或許與激勵薪酬的應計等事項有關,而這可能會在上半年形成順風。你介意稍微說明一下這個動態嗎?(聽不清)這是我們需要掌握的。.

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Thanks, Brook, it's Steve again. As we mentioned in the footnote, we have some modest year-over-year increases in incentive compensation that is kind of a traditional pathway of an assumption that we'll be accruing at target compensation, growth and cash flow expectations, which, as you're aware, in the prior year were not at the levels that we had originally anticipated. So that's a little bit of the waterfall bridge, if you will, as to the compensation component during this transition period.

    是的。謝謝你,Brook,我是Steve。如我們在註腳中提到的,我們的激勵薪酬年對年有一些溫和的增加,這算是傳統做法:假設我們會按目標薪酬水準進行應計,並反映成長與現金流的預期;如你所知,前一年的表現並未達到我們原先預期的水準。所以在這段過渡期間,這就是薪酬組成在瀑布式橋接中的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jakob Cakarnis, Jarden Australia.

    Jakob Cakarnis,Jarden Australia。

  • Jakob Cakarnis - Analyst

    Jakob Cakarnis - Analyst

  • Steve, I just want to go back to slide 19, if I could, please, PK. It sounds like calendar '27 is shaping up (inaudible) to look at just wondering half of enhancement to think you are from the current model that you displayed there where you've got $3 billion of annual cash flow that reinvestment target back in the business of $1 billion plus in the balance sheet utilization of $1 billion plus, please?

    Steve,如果可以的話,我想回到第19頁投影片,請PK。聽起來2027曆年正在成形(聽不清),我只是想知道,從你目前展示的模型來看——你提到每年30億美元的現金流、回投到業務的再投資目標超過10億美元,以及資產負債表運用也超過10億美元——我們大概處於什麼位置?

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Jakob, you weren't really coming through that clearly here. Let me just check in with the team if they understood what the question really was?

    Jakob,你這邊的聲音不是很清楚。我先跟團隊確認一下,他們是否理解你問題的重點是什麼?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So, Jakob, I think you're asking about the kind of the value creation model that was a part of the original that was developed with the acquisition. I think are you asking is it still in line with those expectations? Was that the nature of the question?

    是的。所以,Jakob,我想你是在問:收購時所建立、作為原始一部分的價值創造模型。你是在問它是否仍符合那些預期嗎?這是你問題的本意嗎?

  • Jakob Cakarnis - Analyst

    Jakob Cakarnis - Analyst

  • That's right, please, Steve. Just to pitch it again. Hopefully, it's clearer. In that value creation model, you're talking about annual cash flow of over $3 billion reinvestment back into the business of over $1 billion, and then also the balance sheet utilization of over $1 billion. The question was pitched at PK. Just with calendar '27 shaping up as a better, stronger year for the business, more representative of the go forward. How far do you think we are away from that value proposition model, please?

    沒錯,Steve,麻煩了。我再說一次。希望這次更清楚。在那個價值創造模型中,你們談到每年超過30億美元的現金流、回投到業務的再投資超過10億美元,另外資產負債表運用也超過10億美元。這個問題是問PK的。隨著2027曆年看起來會是公司更好、更強的一年,也更能代表未來的常態。請問你認為我們距離那個價值主張模型還有多遠?

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Look, I think we're in a -- so much better now in terms of the line, Jakob. I think we're well on our way to getting there. What we're seeing here on slide 19, broken out to the right is sort of the swing in model after we have taken advantage of all the opportunities and the potential from the combination of the two companies. I think it still holds.

    是的。你看,我想我們現在——Jakob,你的線路清楚多了。我認為我們正穩步朝那個方向前進。第19頁投影片右側拆分出來的內容,基本上是在我們充分利用兩家公司結合後所有機會與潛力之後,模型的變動情況。我認為這個模型仍然成立。

  • And I think we're making good headways. Let's not forget that '27 is going to be the year for example, on synergies where we are going to pretty much see the bulk of it. And in terms of our activities that we will implement, we will pretty much be done by the end of '27. So that will impact our earnings capacity and also the cash flow generation.

    而且我認為我們進展良好。別忘了,舉例來說,2027年將是協同效益的年度,我們幾乎會看到其中的大部分。就我們將要推行的各項活動而言,到2027年底我們基本上也會完成。因此,這將影響我們的獲利能力以及現金流產生能力。

  • But generally speaking, we are well underway. And in terms of the capital allocation model, we will support the business, and this is the way how we think about it. We are committed to the dividend. And of course, this will all go along with a commitment to investment-grade balance sheet, which is all in line with what Steve has laid out here in terms of the use of cash in order to reduce our leverage.

    但總體而言,我們已經在正軌上。至於資本配置模型,我們會支持業務,而這也是我們的思考方式。我們承諾維持股利。當然,這一切也會與維持投資等級資產負債表的承諾相一致,而這也符合Steve在此所說的現金用途:用以降低我們的槓桿。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

    Mike Roxland,Truist Securities。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Steve, I just wanted to follow up quickly with you. You mentioned that in terms of the (inaudible) or the transition period, outlook, some modest volume growth. Any way to quantify that is 25 bps, 50 bps, what type of volume weather you're embedding within that -- the transition period outlook? And then secondly, PK, you mentioned softness in healthcare. It seems like every quarter, there seems to be some issues around healthcare and volume growth accelerating in that key category for you.

    Steve,我只是想跟你快速追問一下。你提到就(聽不清)或過渡期間的展望而言,會有一些溫和的出貨量成長。有沒有辦法量化一下,是25個基點、50個基點,或是在過渡期間展望中你們內嵌了什麼樣的出貨量走勢?第二點,PK,你提到醫療保健(healthcare)疲軟。看起來每一季醫療保健這塊似乎都有一些問題,而你們在這個關鍵類別的出貨量成長加速也一直受影響。

  • So what's driving the continued softness in healthcare? And what gives you confidence that volumes will ultimately inflect?

    那麼,醫療保健持續疲軟的原因是什麼?又是什麼讓你們有信心出貨量最終會出現拐點回升?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Mike, it's Steve. I'll attack the first and PK, the second part of your question. The assumption embedded in the $1.80 to $1.90 for the first -- for the transition period, volume assumption is flat to very modestly up. So you think about that, it's a pretty narrow range as you can appreciate.

    Mike,我是Steve。我先回答第一個問題,PK再回答你問題的第二部分。在第一個——也就是過渡期間——每股盈餘(EPS)$1.80到$1.90的假設中,出貨量假設是持平到非常溫和上升。所以你可以理解,這是一個相當窄的區間。

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And then on healthcare, and Mike, thanks for the question because it's a bit of an obvious 1 when you listen to our commentary. We're laser-focused on volumes and driving volumes forward because we believe that is the ultimate metric to follow when you want to decide if you're successfully competing in the marketplace. But volume is not always the best metric to decide on the progress that we're making in our focus categories. And in healthcare, that would be an example.

    至於醫療保健,Mike,謝謝你的問題,因為聽我們的評論時這確實是個很明顯的點。我們高度聚焦在出貨量並推動出貨量向前,因為我們相信當你要判斷是否在市場上成功競爭時,出貨量是最終應該追蹤的指標。但出貨量並不總是衡量我們在聚焦類別中進展的最佳指標。醫療保健就是一個例子。

  • So I would start my reflection here by saying, don't read too much into the volume performance on the healthcare side. What we're really seeing is a mix shift, and we're not unhappy with the mix shift. We have seen some volumes reducing in lower-margin subcategory in medical. And that is offset by really good progress on the pharma side, where we have higher-margin products think about nasal, opthalmic or inhalation devices that we bring to market. And the combination of the two actually leads to a profit expansion in the healthcare business. So we're happy with the overall performance. But as we are very focused on volumes, we break out the volume performance of healthcare and that mix shift is driving the volumes down right now.

    所以我先說,不要對醫療保健端的出貨量表現過度解讀。我們真正看到的是產品組合(mix)轉移,而我們對這個組合轉移並不不滿意。我們看到醫療(medical)中一些低毛利子類別的出貨量有所下降。而這被製藥(pharma)端非常好的進展所抵消;在那裡我們有較高毛利的產品——例如我們推向市場的鼻腔、眼科或吸入裝置。兩者結合實際上帶來醫療保健業務的獲利擴張。所以我們對整體表現感到滿意。但由於我們非常關注出貨量,我們會把醫療保健的出貨量表現單獨拆出來看,而目前正是這個組合轉移在拉低出貨量。

  • Now, we will -- as I reflect on my answer here, we're excited about the business and also the outlook. And you talked a little bit about that or you were inquiring around that. A couple of things just to remind you of here. We talked about our participation on GLP-1 with a win. It actually was a synergy win for a customer bringing oral solid dose to the market, multiple regions, multiple format when we're up and producing.

    現在,我們會——回到我剛才的回答,我們對這項業務以及展望都感到興奮。你也稍微提到了這點,或你是在詢問這方面。這裡提醒你幾件事。我們談到我們在GLP-1上的參與並拿下一個案子。那其實是一個協同(synergy)勝利:協助客戶把口服固體劑型推向市場,涵蓋多個地區、多種形式,並且在我們上線量產時同步推進。

  • We've made some really good progress with generics in the fourth quarter, also in India. And we've also talked about the ramp-up of our air knife coating technology in Asia, which is the first of its kind, which will also support the medical business in good margin categories.

    我們在第四季於學名藥(generics)方面也取得了非常好的進展,印度也一樣。我們也談到我們在亞洲推進氣刀塗佈(air knife coating)技術的爬坡(ramp-up);這是同類首創,也將在高毛利類別上支援醫療(medical)業務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

    Anthony Pettinari,花旗(Citi)。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • PK and Steve, on the second half outlook for the stub period, could you talk about your assumptions around cost and just trajectory of resin, fuel, freight, and cost items that you'd call out? And then can you just talk generally about the level of conservatism in the second half guide and what could get you to sort of the higher or lower end given you've had a lot of success (inaudible)?

    PK和Steve,針對下半年這個短期(stub period)的展望,你們能談談對成本的假設,以及樹脂、燃料、運費等成本項目的走勢嗎?另外,你們也能大致談談下半年指引的保守程度,以及在你們已經取得很多成功的情況下,哪些因素可能讓結果落在區間的高端或低端(聽不清)?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Anthony, it's Steve. In terms of our kind of guiding principles here, we obviously don't outlook specifically resin, logistics, et cetera, but our assumption remains that our pricing will offset that inflation. So that relationship of our pricing offsetting that kind of is the fundamental assumption. I think the banding on our transition period outcome, as PK just mentioned, is probably just bands around volume, are we flat? Are we modestly up?

    Anthony,我是Steve。就我們的指引原則而言,我們當然不會對樹脂、物流等做具體展望,但我們的假設仍然是:我們的定價將抵消那部分通膨。因此,定價抵消通膨的這種關係是最核心的假設。我認為過渡期間結果的區間,如PK剛提到的,主要就是圍繞出貨量的區間:我們是持平?還是溫和上升?

  • Because what we are showing is good earning power on modest movements in volume. And I think that will be the primary movement, which is a pretty tight band around our EPS guide for the 6-month transition period.

    因為我們展示的是:出貨量只要有溫和變動,就能帶來不錯的獲利能力。我認為這將是主要的變動來源,而這也使得6個月過渡期間的EPS指引落在一個相當緊的區間。

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And let me, just -- Steve and I were looking at each other and wondering who should answer the question. I really don't have much to add to what Steve said, we can complete each other's sentences. But I think what's important to understand this context here is we don't really know how the Middle East conflict plays out. What's more important for us is really how the supply chains normalize. That will have an impact on resin costing for us as an input.

    我補充一下——Steve和我剛剛互看了一下,在想該由誰來回答這題。我其實沒有太多要補充Steve所說的,我們甚至可以接著彼此的話講。但我認為在這裡重要的是理解這個背景:我們並不真正知道中東衝突會如何發展。對我們更重要的是供應鏈如何恢復正常化。這會影響到我們作為投入成本的樹脂成本。

  • And what Steve said is 100% correct. We feel like we can do the right thing here for the business and for our customers. which means should the inflation to go up or go even further up or go up again. We have an opportunity to deal with that. If it comes down, we'll do the right thing for our customers and we'll adjust our pricing, so that is sort of the base assumption as we look forward.

    而Steve說的完全正確。我們覺得我們可以在這裡為公司與客戶做正確的事;也就是說,如果通膨上升、進一步上升,或再次上升,我們有機會去因應。如果通膨下降,我們也會為客戶做正確的事並調整我們的定價,所以這就是我們往前看的基本假設。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets.

    Ketan Mamtora,BMO資本市場(BMO Capital Markets)。

  • Ketan Mamtora - Analyst

    Ketan Mamtora - Analyst

  • Maybe just one more on the six -month transition EPS bridge, the $100 million EBIT that you talked about, Steve, any way to sort of just understand the puts and takes there? Because I would imagine the synergies alone would get you above that level. What are the other factors that we should keep in mind as we think about just that component of the bridge?

    再問一個關於6個月過渡期EPS橋接(bridge)的問題:你提到的1億美元EBIT,Steve,有沒有辦法幫我們理解其中的增減因素(puts and takes)?因為我想光是協同效益就應該能讓你們高於那個水準。在我們思考橋接中這一段時,還有哪些其他因素需要記住?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Ketan, it's Steve. Yes, you touched on it well. The primary positive there is net synergies. And as we mentioned, we've got a couple of moving parts. There will be some modest decrease in our depreciation expense and then a modest increase on the incentive compensation expense that we just chatted about in the earlier question.

    Ketan,我是Steve。是的,你抓到重點了。主要的正面因素是淨協同效益(net synergies)。如我們提到的,還有幾個變動項。折舊費用會有一些溫和下降,然後我們剛在前一題聊到的激勵性薪酬費用會有一些溫和上升。

  • Those are the two kind of moving parts, if you will, that has some impact on the EBITDA, just given that the depreciation is down, I think of it -- and you'll see it in the guide. You can kind of get to a $30 million reduction in depreciation expense during the six-month period. If you kind of look at actuals versus the guide that's in the supplemental section of the materials, those are two moving parts beyond the synergies.

    如果你願意這麼說,這兩個就是會對EBITDA造成一些影響的變動項;因為折舊下降,我會把它想成——而你也會在指引裡看到。在這6個月期間,你大致可以推算折舊費用會減少約3,000萬美元。如果你去看補充資料(supplemental section)中實際數字相對於指引的差異,除了協同效益之外,這兩個就是額外的變動項。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hillary Cacanando, Deutsche Bank.

    Hillary Cacanando,德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)。

  • Hillary Cacanando - Analyst

    Hillary Cacanando - Analyst

  • So you've now secured about $140 million of annualized revenue wins or roughly half of your three-year gross synergy target. Can you provide a little more detail on where those wins are coming from? Whether they are primarily cross-selling within the existing customer or new customer wins? And how should we think about the timing of those awards converting into revenue and earnings over the next 12 to 24 months?

    你們現在已經拿下約1.4億美元的年化營收勝利(annualized revenue wins),約等於你們三年期總協同目標(gross synergy target)的一半。你們能否提供更多細節,說明這些勝利主要來自哪裡?它們主要是對既有客戶的交叉銷售(cross-selling),還是贏得新客戶?另外,未來12到24個月,這些案子轉化為營收與獲利的時點,我們應該如何看待?

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Hillary. This is PK. It's pretty much all of the above that you mentioned. We talked about the synergy wins before and they go back to the potential really that the combination has brought along.

    是的。謝謝你,Hillary。我是PK。基本上就是你提到的以上各點。我們之前談過協同效益的成果,而這些成果其實回溯到這項結合所帶來的潛在機會。

  • So think about it this way. One lever is a combination of products between Amcor and Berry that creates an additional value opportunity for our customers. . One of the things that we've said, one of the two companies makes the bottle, the other one makes the closure or the pump that goes on top of it and that creates a solution. That's one opportunity.

    所以可以這樣想。其中一個槓桿是 Amcor 與 Berry 之間的產品組合,為我們的客戶創造額外的價值機會。。我們曾說過,其中一家公司做瓶身,另一家公司做上面的瓶蓋或幫浦,兩者結合就形成一個解決方案。這是一個機會。

  • Second one is you leverage the more global reach of Amcor for the Berry products. These things are happening. The third one is, and this was one of the examples I spoke to cross-referencing of customers from one side to the other. These are the type of things that create the synergies, and there's lots of opportunities there I think we're really just scratching the surface. And we have trouble to really estimate that and against our estimates, we're making really good progress.

    第二個是,利用 Amcor 更全球化的觸及範圍來推動 Berry 的產品。這些事情正在發生。第三個是——這也是我提到的例子之一——把一邊的客戶與另一邊的客戶進行交叉對接。這些就是創造協同效益的類型,而且我認為機會很多,我們其實才剛開始探索。我們也很難精準估算;但相較於我們的估算,我們的進展非常好。

  • Now the second part of your question was how quickly does that translate. At this point, we would mark about $140 million of annualized wins. They will play out, obviously, over a period of sort of 12 months once you get them, right? You need to ramp up first, so say it takes you about 12 to 15 months to see a full cycle of full revenues and that will then translate to the bottom line. So that's why we're saying at this point in time, we've really just had the smaller part of contribution falling to the bottom line from those wins, but as we move forward through the transition period and into calendar '27, that will become a lot here.

    你問題的第二部分是,這會多快轉化出來。目前,我們大約標記了每年年化約 1.4 億美元的成果。一旦取得這些成果,它們顯然會在大約 12 個月的期間內逐步體現,對吧?你需要先爬坡,所以假設大約需要 12 到 15 個月才能看到完整一輪、完整收入週期,然後才會反映到損益底線。因此我們才說,就目前而言,這些成果對損益底線的貢獻仍只是一小部分;但隨著我們在過渡期持續推進並進入 2027 日曆年,這部分將會大幅增加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

    Jeff Zekauskas,摩根大通。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • (inaudible) restructuring costs were $290 million this year. I expect that they would go down next year? How much would they go down. And is that benefit included in your $500 million working capital benefit. And does that $500 million working capital benefit assume flat raw material costs?

    (聽不清)今年的重組成本是 2.9 億美元。我預期明年會下降?會下降多少?而這項效益是否已包含在你們 5 億美元的營運資金效益之中?另外,這 5 億美元的營運資金效益是否假設原物料成本持平?

  • And is your challenge in the coming quarter, how you modulate your declining raw material costs because polyethylene came down $0.15 a pound in June and propylene came down, and you did a great job during this period of inflation might you be able to hold on to some of the raw material benefit? Or does it go back perfectly?

    而你們接下來一季的挑戰是否在於,如何調整你們面對原物料成本下滑的方式?因為 6 月聚乙烯每磅下跌了 0.15 美元,丙烯也下跌了;你們在這段通膨期間做得很好,是否能保留部分原物料帶來的好處?還是會完全回吐?

  • Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Stephen Scherger - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Thanks for that, Jeff. It's Steve. Just very briefly, you touched on it well. $290 million of total Berry transaction restructuring costs $160 million of that was more integration-oriented.

    是的。謝謝你,Jeff。我是 Steve。簡單說,你提得很到位。今年 Berry 交易相關的重組成本總計 2.9 億美元,其中 1.6 億美元較偏向整合相關。

  • $130 million was transaction oriented. You're correct that during the transition period, that number will come down quite materially. The transaction is behind us. We would expect more in the $50 million range for the integration-related costs. So it's a good tailwind. It is not in the working capital improvement assumption. It is more in the cash flow assumption relative to the 3.5x to 3.6x leverage targeted for end of December '26. And you're into the good complexities of the business, PPP movements up and down.

    1.3 億美元是交易相關。你說得對,在過渡期間,這個數字會相當明顯地下降。交易已經完成。我們預期整合相關成本大約會落在 5,000 萬美元左右。所以這是一個不錯的順風。這不包含在營運資金改善的假設中。它更多反映在現金流假設上,對應我們目標在 2026 年 12 月底將槓桿降至 3.5 倍到 3.6 倍。而你也提到了這門生意的複雜之處:PPP 的上下波動。

  • Overall, our assumptions have reasonable stability in those cost assumptions in terms of the ability to get the $500 million back, in other words, not major movements up or down, which could have some implications, obviously, on timing. It's a good thoughtful question. And you're right, there could be some implications. Overall, our confidence in the recovery of the Middle East conflict cash flow is as high as you've heard us articulate. So thank you.

    整體而言,我們的假設是在成本假設上維持合理的穩定性,以支持把 5 億美元拿回來;換句話說,不會出現大幅上升或下降——當然這可能會對時點造成一些影響。這是一個很好的、很有深度的問題。你說得對,確實可能會有一些影響。整體來看,我們對於中東衝突相關現金流的回收信心,和你們聽到我們表述的一樣高。所以謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have reached the end of the time we have for the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to PK for closing remarks.

    我們的問答時間已到。我現在把電話交回給 PK 作結語。

  • Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Peter Konieczny - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Thank you, operator, and thank you, everybody, again, for joining us. We certainly look forward to the opportunity to sit down with many of you over the course of the quarter and clarify further expectations and the quality of the business. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝接線員,也再次感謝各位今天參與。我們非常期待在本季期間有機會與各位中的許多人坐下來交流,進一步釐清對未來的期待以及本業務的品質。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。您現在可以掛線。