Arcadium Lithium PLC (ALTM) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the second quarter 2024 earnings release conference call for Arcadium Lithium. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 Arcadium Lithium 2024 年第二季財報發布電話會議。（操作員指令）

I'll now turn the conference over to Mr. Daniel Rosen, Investor Relations and Strategy for Arcadium Lithium. Mr. Rosen, you may begin.

現在，我將會議交給 Arcadium Lithium 投資者關係和策略主管 Daniel Rosen 先生。羅森先生，您可以開始啦。

Thank you, Jael, and thanks to everyone for joining Arcadium Lithium's second quarter 2024 earnings call. Joining me today are Paul Graves, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Gilberto Antoniazzi, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，Jael，也感謝大家參加 Arcadium Lithium 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長 Paul Graves 和財務長 Gilberto Antoniazzi。

The slide presentation that accompanies our results, along with our earnings release, can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. Prepared remarks and today's discussion will be made available after the call. Following our prepared remarks, Paul and Gilberto will be available to address your question. Given the number of participants on the call today, we would request a limited one question and one follow-up per caller. We'll be happy to address any additional questions after the call.

我們的業績幻燈片簡報以及收益報告可在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分找到。準備好的演講和今天的討論內容將在通話結束後提供。在我們準備好發言之後，保羅和吉爾伯托將回答您的問題。考慮到今天通話的參與者數量，我們要求每位呼叫者只能提出一個問題並進行一次跟進。通話結束後，我們很樂意解答您的任何其他問題。

Before we begin, let me remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties, concerning specific factors, including but not limited to those factors identified in our Form 10-K and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information presented represents the best judgment based on today's information.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒你，今天的討論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受各種風險和不確定因素的影響，涉及特定因素，包括但不限於我們10-K 表格和提交給證券交易委員會的其他文件中所確定的因素。所提供的資訊是基於今天的資訊而做出的最佳判斷。

Actual results may vary based upon these risks and uncertainties. Today's discussion will include references to various non-GAAP financial metrics, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted earnings per diluted share, and adjusted tax rate.

實際結果可能因這些風險和不確定性而有所不同。今天的討論將涉及各種非 GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率、調整後的每股稀釋收益和調整後的稅率。

Definitions of these terms, as well as the reconciliation to the most directly comparable financial measure, calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, are provided on our Investor Relations website.

這些術語的定義以及根據 GAAP 計算和呈現的最直接可比較財務指標的對帳均在我們的投資者關係網站上提供。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Paul.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給保羅。

Thank you, Dan. Arcadium Lithium reported strong results in the quarter, despite market conditions remain challenging and lithium market price indices ending the quarter at lower levels than they started. Our financial performance continues to show the benefit in these market conditions of our low-cost operating footprint and our commercial approach of securing long-term contracts with strategic partners wherever it makes sense to do so.

謝謝你，丹。儘管市場環境依然嚴峻，本季末鋰市場價格指數低於季初水平，Arcadium Lithium 仍報告了本季強勁的業績。我們的財務表現持續顯示出，在這種市場條件下，我們的低成本營運模式和與策略夥伴簽訂長期合約的商業方式帶來的好處。

At the end of the last quarter, this helped us to achieve higher realized pricing than we would have been following a fully market exposed pricing approach. As a consequence, we delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of close to 40% in the quarter and for the year-to-date. Arcadium Lithium realized average pricing of $17,200 per product metric ton, by combined hydroxide and carbonate volumes in the second quarter, with our butyllithium and other specialties products achieving a price per LCE that was significantly above this.

在上個季度末，這幫助我們實現了比完全採用市場定價方法更高的實際定價。因此，我們本季和年初至今的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率接近 40%。Arcadium Lithium 在第二季度以氫氧化物和碳酸鹽的總量計算，實現了每公噸產品的平均定價17,200 美元，而我們的丁基鋰和其他特種產品的每LCE 價格則遠高於這一價格。

Our multi-year customer relationships and the wide range of high quality lithium products we produce means that we can continue to focus on operating our network to maximize the value we achieve per LCE wherever possible. We brought significant additional production capacity online at both Olaroz and Fenix this year. And we expect this to result in a 25% increase in combined lithium hydroxide and carbonate sales volume in 2024.

我們多年的客戶關係和我們生產的各種高品質鋰產品意味著我們可以繼續專注於營運我們的網絡，以盡可能地最大化我們每個 LCE 所實現的價值。今年，我們為 Olaroz 和 Fenix 帶來了顯著額外的生產能力。我們預計這將導致 2024 年氫氧化鋰和碳酸鹽的總銷售量成長 25%。

The timing of the volume additions as well as the nature of the stock of processes means that we expect 25% volume growth again in 2025 from these already completed expansions given us two consecutive years of above market volume growth. We continue to make significant progress on cost savings, as we implement various integration efforts across the two legacy businesses. We expect to realize cost savings in 2024 towards the high end of our $60 million to $80 million guidance range.

產量增加的時間以及製程庫存的性質意味著，鑑於我們連續兩年的產量增幅高於市場水平，我們預計這些已經完成的擴建項目的產量將在 2025 年再次實現 25% 的成長。隨著我們在兩大傳統業務領域實施各種整合舉措，我們在成本節約方面持續取得重大進展。我們預計到 2024 年將實現成本節約，達到 6,000 萬美元至 8,000 萬美元的指導範圍的高端。

We are also pursuing a program of accelerating the total cost reduction initiatives that we announced with the merger. As a reminder, we previously announced that we expect to achieve total cost energies of $125 million per annum by 2027, and we're now targeting to deliver these savings faster. It's increasingly clear that at current lithium market prices, our industry cannot invest in capacity expansion at the pace announced to-date.

我們也正在推行一項計劃，以加速實施我們在合併時宣布的整體成本削減措施。提醒一下，我們之前宣布，預計到 2027 年實現每年 1.25 億美元的總成本能源，現在我們的目標是更快實現這些節約。越來越明顯的是，以目前的鋰市場價格，我們的產業無法以迄今為止宣布的速度投資產能擴張。

Arcadium Lithium's expansion projects are forecast to be amongst the lowest cost operations globally when completed, and we remain committed to developing all of them in the coming years. However, the market today is clearly indicating to our industry that accelerating the delivery of additional supply volumes is not what is needed if the market is going to be in balance. We have therefore decided to slow down the pace of our own expansion plan by pausing investment into our four current expansion projects.

Arcadium Lithium 的擴建項目預計完工後將成為全球成本最低的項目之一，我們仍致力於在未來幾年開發所有項目。然而，今天的市場清楚地向我們的行業表明，如果市場要保持平衡，加速交付額外的供應量並不是必要的。因此，我們決定暫停對目前四個擴建項目的投資，放慢我們自己的擴建計畫的步伐。

Consequently, we will invest in our growth on a timeline that is supported by the market and our customers. This will allow us to reduce our financial commitments during this period of low market prices, reducing our total capital spending over the next 24 months by approximately $500 million while maintaining flexibility to restart these projects at an appropriate time in the future.

因此，我們將按照市場和客戶支援的時間表來投資我們的成長。這將使我們能夠在市場價格低迷期間減少財務承諾，在未來 24 個月內減少約 5 億美元的總資本支出，同時保持靈活性，以便在未來適當的時候重啟這些項目。

I will now turn the call over to Gilberto to discuss our second quarter performance.

現在我將把電話轉給吉爾伯托，討論我們第二季的表現。

Thank you, Paul. Starting on slide 4, Arcadium Lithium reported second quarter revenue of $255 million, adjusted EBITDA of $99 million, and adjusted earnings of $0.05 per diluted share. Total volumes in the second quarter were up slightly versus the first quarter, with higher carbonate and hydroxide sales partially offset by lower spodumene sales due to reduced production at Mt. Cattlin.

謝謝你，保羅。從第 4 張幻燈片開始，Arcadium Lithium 報告第二季營收為 2.55 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 9,900 萬美元，調整後每股收益為 0.05 美元。第二季的總銷售量較第一季略有上升，碳酸鹽和氫氧化物銷售的增加部分抵消了由於卡特林山產量減少導致的鋰輝石銷售的下降。

Average realized pricing was higher sequentially for spodumene, but lower across all other products. This decline was driven by a combination of lower market price for lithium chemicals, the lag impact of price indices on a portion of our carbonate and hydroxide volumes, and changes in both product and customer mix.

鋰輝石的平均實現價格環比上漲，但其他所有產品的平均實現價格均下跌。這一下降是由於鋰化學品市場價格下跌、價格指數對部分碳酸鹽和氫氧化物產量的滯後影響以及產品和客戶結構的變化等多種因素造成的。

Adjusted EBITDA margins were positively impacted by lower operating costs while partially offset by some negative effects impacts. As a result, the company achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 39%, demonstrating our leading low-cost position in Argentina and the earnest power of our business in these challenging market conditions.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率受到營運成本降低的正面影響，同時也被一些負面影響部分抵銷。結果，公司實現了39%的調整後EBITDA利潤率，證​​明了我們在阿根廷領先的低成本地位以及我們業務在當前充滿挑戰的市場條件下的強勁實力。

Turning to Slide 5, we provide further detail on second quarter and year-to-date performance from our key product groups. Lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate together make up the core of our business, comprising nearly three quarters of our total revenue. On a combined product ton basis, we sold roughly 10,800 metric tons at an average realized price of $17,200 per metric ton in the second quarter. While pricing was lower quarter-over-quarter, this is higher than would have been achieved as we pursue a fully spot market-based sales strategy.

在投影片 5 中，我們提供了主要產品組第二季和年初至今表現的更多詳細資訊。氫氧化鋰和碳酸鋰共同構成了我們業務的核心，占我們總收入的近四分之三。以綜合產品噸位計算，我們在第二季銷售了約 10,800 公噸，平均實現價格為每公噸 17,200 美元。儘管價格環比下降，但仍高於我們實施完全基於現貨市場的銷售策略所能實現的價格。

We continue to benefit from various price floors and firm annual volume commitments in place with a select group of core customers under multi-year agreements. Average realized pricing across Butyllithium and Other Lithium Specialties was also down versus the prior floor. However, these products continue to deliver very high value for their underlying lithium content, while reducing the overall volatility in our portfolio over time.

我們繼續受益於與特定核心客戶群簽訂的多年期協議下的各種價格下限和堅定的年度銷售承諾。丁基鋰和其他鋰特種產品的平均實現價格也較先前的最低價下降。然而，這些產品因其底層鋰含量而繼續提供非常高的價值，同時隨著時間的推移降低我們投資組合的整體波動性。

For Spodumene, we sold roughly 23,500 dry metric tons in the quarter from Mt. Cattlin at an average grade of 5.3%. Volumes were slightly lower, consistent with the reduced mining production plan for the year. We achieved average realized pricing of just $1,000 per dry metric ton on an SC6 equivalent basis, which was up over 20% versus the first quarter. The cash operating cost of production at Mt. Cattlin remains at approximately $700 per ton due to reduced mining activity.

就鋰輝石而言，我們本季從卡特林山銷售了約 23,500 乾公噸鋰輝石，平均品位為 5.3%。產量略有下降，與今年採礦產量減少的計畫一致。我們以 SC6 當量為基礎實現的平均實際價格僅為每乾公噸 1,000 美元，比第一季上漲了 20% 以上。由於採礦活動減少，卡特林山生產的現金營運成本仍維持在每噸約 700 美元。

I will now turn the call back to Paul.

我現在將電話轉回給保羅。

Thanks, Gilberto. I'd like to provide some market observations as set out on Slide 6, beginning with the obvious that continues to be a broad negative overhang on the lithium and energy storage space, as we move into the second half of the year. Lithium prices moved lower in the second quarter and have declined further, third quarter to-date, testing new lows in that cycle.

謝謝，吉爾伯托。我想提供一些投影片 6 中列出的市場觀察結果，首先是顯而易見的，隨著我們進入下半年，鋰和能源儲存領域繼續存在廣泛的負面因素。鋰價在第二季走低，第三季至今進一步下跌，創下本週期新低。

There are a few dynamics we can point to that are contributing to this price weakness. Touching briefly on demand, it's safe to say that while there's been some recent pullback in near-term US and European EV demand growth. Demand growth globally remains robust.

我們可以指出導致價格疲軟的幾個因素。簡要談談需求，可以肯定地說，儘管近期美國和歐洲的電動車需求成長有所回落。全球需求成長依然強勁。

On a gigawatt-hour basis, total EV and PHEV sales were 20% higher year-over-year in the first half of this year. Underlying growth in China, where the bulk of lithium demand resides today, remains strong with EV sales exceeding 1 million units in the month of June, and penetration rates continuing to set all-time highs. Additionally, demand growth of stationary storage applications continues to be a rapidly growing part of the future total demand picture.

以千兆瓦時計算，今年上半年電動車和插電式混合動力車的總銷量年增了 20%。中國是目前鋰需求的主要來源，其潛在成長仍然強勁，6 月電動車銷量超過 100 萬輛，滲透率持續創歷史新高。此外，固定儲存應用的需求成長將繼續成為未來總需求中快速成長的一部分。

In aggregate, there's been very little fundamental change to the long-term demand trajectory of lithium. And this growth is going to continue to require meaningful additional supply to come online if the market is going to be in balance. However, we clearly don't have that balanced market today. Additional lithium supply has come into the market at a faster rate than many of us have expected. Much of the supply growth has come in the form of spodumene out of Africa and lepidolite in China, which is much higher cost than most existing supply.

整體而言，鋰的長期需求趨勢幾乎沒有根本性變化。如果市場要保持平衡，這種成長將繼續需要有意義的額外供應。然而，今天我們顯然還沒有實現平衡的市場。額外的鋰供應以比我們許多人預期的更快的速度進入市場。大部分供應成長來自非洲的鋰輝石和中國的鋰雲母，其成本比大多數現有供應高得多。

But much of the investment in these resources is coming from supply chains directly connected to converters or end consumers in China as they seek to become more integrated into upstream resources as part of their strategy of establishing long-term security of supply. This is resulting in lower demand growth for unintegrated spodumene, even as end market demand for lithium chemicals continues to grow. It also reduces the demand for some lithium chemicals, but more consumers or fully integrated converters in China are now producing lithium chemicals themselves.

但這些資源的大部分投資來自與中國轉化商或最終消費者直接相關的供應鏈，因為他們尋求更多地融入上游資源，這是其建立長期供應安全策略的一部分。儘管終端市場對鋰化學品的需求持續成長，但這也導致未整合鋰輝石的需求成長下降。這也減少了對一些鋰化學品的需求，但現在中國有更多的消費者或完全整合的轉換商自行生產鋰化學品。

Put differently, while the volume of lithium chemicals being processed into the battery supply chain continues to increase at double digit percentages per year, the market for non-integrated spodumene concentrate and lithium chemicals has not been growing at the same rate in recent quarters. Despite this slower external demand growth for lithium products, we've seen spodumene producers in particular continue to increase both their production and shipments of spodumene concentrate.

換句話說，雖然加工成電池供應鏈的鋰化學品數量每年繼續以兩位數的百分比增長，但非集成鋰輝石精礦和鋰化學品的市場近幾個季度並沒有以同樣的速度增長。儘管鋰產品的外部需求成長放緩，但我們看到鋰輝石生產商尤其持續增加鋰輝石精礦的產量和出貨量。

Our own marketing of small volumes of spodumene concentrate from Mt. Cattlin shows that the demand for material remains broad, with over 20 bids received for our latest market testing auction. However, the increase in supply appears to be even greater than this broad demand can absorb, leading to more downward pressure on spodumene prices.

我們自己對卡特林山少量鋰輝石精礦的營銷表明，對材料的需求仍然很廣泛，在我們最新的市場測試拍賣中收到了超過 20 個投標。然而，供應量的增幅似乎超過了廣泛需求所能吸收的程度，導致鋰輝石價格面臨更大的下行壓力。

And history shows us that when spodumene prices are low, lithium chemical prices in China are also going to be low, and that is certainly the case today. To compound this, we've also seen supply of lithium carbonate from South America continue to grow, albeit at slower rates than the growth in spodumene supply.

歷史告訴我們，當鋰輝石價格低時，中國的鋰化學品價格也會低，今天的情況確實如此。除此之外，我們也看到來自南美洲的碳酸鋰供應量持續成長，儘管成長速度低於鋰輝石供應量的成長率。

As a result of this increased supply, we see higher levels of lithium carbonate and spodumene concentrate inventory in the market right now. Much of this inventory is being held by traders and through futures exchanges where activity is increasing rather than at producers or at end customers. The greater customer and converter integration and a greater willingness of intermediaries who buy and hold material combined with the continued flux and technology roadmaps of global OEMs is resulting in less visibility for lithium producers into true underlying end-market demand than we have had historically.

由於供應增加，我們看到目前市場上碳酸鋰和鋰輝石精礦庫存水準較高。這些庫存大部分由貿易商或透過期貨交易所持有，這些交易所的活動正在增加，而不是由生產商或最終客戶持有。客戶和轉換器整合程度的提高、中間商購買和持有材料的意願增強，再加上全球原始設備製造商的持續變化和技術路線圖，導致鋰生產商對真正的潛在終端市場需求的了解程度低於歷史上的水平。

It's easy for producers today to see end-use consumption continue to grow, see this as a proxy for market demand for lithium chemicals.

如今，生產商很容易看到終端消費持續成長，並將其視為鋰化學品市場需求的代表。

However, the evidence suggests that in today's environment, this connection is not holding true in the short term. Despite this, we view longer-term lithium prices as heavily skewed to the upside from today's levels. There's a limited ability for prices to move much further down from current levels on a sustained basis. In fact, we believe that prices in China today are well below the cost of the marginal producer, significantly below the prices needed to incentivize further investments. The longer prices stay where they are, the greater the likelihood of production detailment from high cost resources and the lower the investments in future supply.

然而，證據表明，在當今的環境下，這種聯繫在短期內並不成立。儘管如此，我們仍然認為長期鋰價將較目前的水平大幅上漲。價格從目前水準持續大幅下跌的能力有限。事實上，我們認為目前中國的價格遠低於邊際生產者的成本，大大低於激勵進一步投資所需的價格。價格維持在目前水準的時間越長，從高成本資源中進行生產的可能性就越大，未來供應的投資就越低。

We expect that end market demand growth rates and lithium chemical demand growth rates will return to alignment as the pace of back integration slows, and this will result in prices increasing towards reinvestment levels at that time. While we have seen more announcements today of slowdowns and delays from both incumbent producers and junior developers, we do not expect these to materially impact the market in the next few quarters. However, we do believe that the forecasted supply for 2026 and beyond in most independent models is much too high given the impact of these slowdowns.

我們預計，隨著後向整合步伐的放緩，終端市場需求成長率和鋰化學品需求成長率將恢復一致，這將導致價格上漲至當時的再投資水準。儘管我們今天看到更多有關現有生產商和初級開發商放緩或推遲生產的公告，但我們預計這些公告不會對未來幾季的市場產生重大影響。然而，我們確實認為，考慮到這些經濟放緩的影響，大多數獨立模型對 2026 年及以後的供應量預測過高。

We expect to see more discipline from producers and less freely available and more expensive capital, especially for those projects that are not backed by existing cash flow or are being developed by companies without a proven track record of success. We also do not believe that the lepidolite or African spodumene volumes continue to expand at the rate we've seen in the last few years.

我們期望看到生產商更加自律，自由可用的資本減少且成本增加，特別是對於那些沒有現有現金流支持或由沒有成功記錄的公司開發的項目。我們也不相信鋰雲母或非洲鋰輝石的產量會繼續以過去幾年的速度擴大。

And perhaps just as important, financial logic of downstream conversion of raw material into higher value products, especially outside China, will face much higher challenges, resulting in a very tight market for lithium hydroxide that is not sourced from China.

或許同樣重要的是，將原料下游轉化為更高價值產品的財務邏輯，尤其是在中國以外，將面臨更大的挑戰，導致非中國產的氫氧化鋰市場非常緊張。

We remain confident in a return to healthier market fundamentals over time, as well as in the world-class development projects available in our portfolio. However, we must adapt to the realities of the market we find ourselves in today and the pace at which we can responsibly invest capital on that basis.

我們堅信，隨著時間的推移，市場基本面將恢復健康，我們的投資組合中也將擁有世界級的開發案。然而，我們必須適應當今市場的現實，以及在此基礎上負責任地投資資本的速度。

Arcadium Lithium has therefore made the decision to pause investment at the Galaxy project in Canada. This remains a world-class resource, leading fundamentals, and a projected operating cost that will be amongst the lowest, as far as you mean assets in the industry.

因此，Arcadium Lithium 決定暫停對加拿大 Galaxy 專案的投資。就資產而言，這仍然是世界一流的資源、領先的基本面，預計營運成本將是業界最低的。

However, we do not believe that the market needs us to bring this volume online on a merchant basis within the next two years. And as I just mentioned, the current economics of building carbonate or hydroxide conversion capacity outside China, absent a very strong long-term customer commitment, are not compelling. We can't explore it bringing in a partner that is interested in providing capital for the Galaxy project in return for a long-term strategic investment likely backed by a long-term supply agreement.

然而，我們認為市場並不需要我們在未來兩年內以商家為基礎在線上推出如此規模的產品。正如我剛才提到的，目前，由於缺乏非常堅定的長期客戶承諾，在中國境外建立碳酸鹽或氫氧化物轉化產能的經濟效益並不顯著。我們無法探索引入有興趣為 Galaxy 專案提供資金以換取可能由長期供應協議支持的長期策略投資的合作夥伴。

The pause will be structured to minimize the cost and timing disruption when this project is ultimately restarted. Additionally, Arcadium Lithium is revisiting the sequencing of its combined 25,000 metric ton lithium carbonate projects at the Salar del Hombre Muerto in Argentina between Fenix Phase 1B and Sal de Vida Stage 1. These projects are also industry leading with forecasted operating costs firmly in the first quartile of the lithium carbonate production.

暫停將按照計劃進行，以最大程度地減少專案最終重新啟動時的成本和時間幹擾。此外，Arcadium Lithium 正在重新審視其位於阿根廷 Salar del Hombre Muerto 的 Fenix 1B 期和 Sal de Vida 1 期之間的總計 25,000 公噸碳酸鋰項目的排序。這些項目也處於行業領先地位，預測營運成本穩居碳酸鋰產量的第一個四分位數。

However, rather than execute both expansions simultaneously as previously announced, the expansion will now be completed sequentially. Doing this will also provide additional time to evaluate how to optimize future development of the Salar del Hombre Muerto Complex, where the two projects sit within a few kilometers of each other, especially with respect to the additional infrastructure investments that will be needed for future expansions. It will also allow us to spread the capital spending over a longer period of time.

然而，與先前宣布的同時進行兩項擴建不同，現在擴建將按順序完成。這樣做還將提供更多時間來評估如何優化 Salar del Hombre Muerto 綜合體的未來發展，這兩個項目相距不到幾公里，特別是在未來擴展所需的額外基礎設施投資方面。這也能讓我們將資本支出分散到更長的時間內。

We are not changing our plans for the development of Nemaska Lithium, the 32,000 metric ton integrated spodumene to hydroxide project in Canada. The combination of our progress made to date and the strong customer commitments we have in place for the project give us confidence in continuing to push forward towards commercial production.

我們不會改變 Nemaska Lithium 的開發計劃，該項目位於加拿大，年產 32,000 公噸，是鋰輝石到氫氧化物的綜合項目。我們迄今所取得的進展以及我們對該專案的堅定客戶承諾使我們有信心繼續推動商業化生產。

As with our decision to defer investment in two of our four current expansion projects, as well as the process of identifying cost saving opportunities in our remaining projects, we expect to reduce our capital spending by approximately $500 million over the next 24 months. These decisions do not reflect any change in our view of the attractiveness of these projects, but in today's environment, we will focus on cost discipline and operational execution that continues to differentiate the performance of our business in this market, as well as on responsible capital deployment that we navigate through low market prices.

正如我們決定推遲對目前四個擴建項目中的兩個項目的投資，以及在剩餘項目中尋找節省成本的機會一樣，我們預計在未來 24 個月內減少約 5 億美元的資本支出。這些決定並不反映我們對這些項目吸引力的看法有任何變化，但在今天的環境下，我們將專注於成本紀律和營運執行，繼續在這個市場上區分我們業務的表現，以及負責任的資本我們透過低市場價格來進行部署。

Our portfolio of operating and development assets remains core to the value and future of this business, and we intend to provide a detailed review of our expansion plans, financial outlook, and broader strategic objectives at our upcoming Investor Day on September 19 with further details on this event to follow.

我們的營運和開發資產組合仍然是該業務價值和未來的核心，我們打算在9 月19 日即將舉行的投資者日上詳細審查我們的擴張計劃、財務前景和更廣泛的戰略目標，並進一步詳細說明此事件將繼續發生。

So moving to slide 8, we're providing a few 2024 specific updates for our Arcadium Lithium. We recently announced our acquisition of the lithium metal business of Li-Metal Corp were $11 million in cash, which includes intellectual property and lithium metal production assets, including a pilot production facility in Ontario, Canada. This acquisition strengthens our position as a global producer of lithium metal by providing safer, lower cost and more sustainable processes for lithium metal production using varying grades of lithium carbonate as feedstock.

因此轉到第 8 張投影片，我們為 Arcadium Lithium 提供了一些 2024 年的具體更新。我們最近宣布以 1,100 萬美元現金收購 Li-Metal Corp 的鋰金屬業務，其中包括智慧財產權和鋰金屬生產資產，包括位於加拿大安大略省的一個試點生產設施。此次收購透過使用不同等級的碳酸鋰作為原料，為鋰金屬生產提供更安全、更低成本和更永續的工藝，鞏固了我們作為全球鋰金屬生產商的地位。

This complements the lithium chloride fed process from our operations in Argentina that we use today. It will improve the capabilities of our butyllithium and high purity metal businesses, while increasing the flexibility of our integrated network of assets and our ability to maximize the value of the lithium that we sell to our customers.

這對我們目前在阿根廷運營的氯化鋰進料工藝進行了補充。它將提高我們的丁基鋰和高純度金屬業務的能力，同時提高我們綜合資產網絡的靈活性和最大化我們向客戶銷售的鋰的價值的能力。

Additionally, we continue to make significant progress in identifying and executing on merger integration and cost saving initiatives across the two legacy businesses. As a result, we now expect to realize synergies in 2024 toward the high-end of our $60 million to $80 million guidance range. This is driven primarily by organizational restructuring, operating and logistics savings, and the elimination of third-party and other services across the two companies.

此外，我們在確定和執行兩大傳統業務的合併整合和成本節約措施方面繼續取得重大進展。因此，我們現在預計在 2024 年實現協同效應，達到 6,000 萬美元至 8,000 萬美元的指導範圍的高端。這主要歸因於兩家公司的組織重組、營運和物流節約以及第三方和其他服務的取消。

Looking beyond 2024, Arcadium Lithium is accelerating its plans to achieve total cost savings of $125 million per year within three years of merger closing. We have commenced the program to accelerate the delivery of these cost savings and will provide further details regarding these plans in the coming months. With respect to our recently completed capacity expansions, we continue to increase production levels as we move through the (technical difficulty) processes.

展望 2024 年，Arcadium Lithium 正在加快其計劃，以在合併完成後三年內實現每年 1.25 億美元的總成本節約。我們已經啟動該計劃以加速實現這些成本節約，並將在未來幾個月內提供有關這些計劃的更多細節。關於我們最近完成的產能擴張，我們隨著（技術難度）流程的進展而持續提高生產水準。

We're now expecting a 25% increase in combined lithium hydroxide and carbonate sales volumes for full year 2024, with the volume growth becoming predominant in the second half of this year. These expansions will continue to increase their output in the coming quarters, leading us to forecast a further 25% increase in total volumes 2025 compared to 2024.

我們目前預計 2024 年全年氫氧化鋰和碳酸鹽總銷量將成長 25%，其中下半年銷售成長將占主導地位。這些擴張將在未來幾季繼續增加產量，因此我們預測 2025 年的總產量將比 2024 年進一步增加 25%。

The first 10,000 metric tonne lithium carbonate expansion at Fenix phase 1A, is fully commissioned and operating today, and we expect it to be producing at full operating rates and target quality levels by the end of the year. This rapid move to nameplate operating capabilities is a direct consequence of using the same direct lithium extraction process already in place at Fenix.

Fenix 1A 期項目首個 10,000 公噸碳酸鋰擴建項目現已全面投入運營，我們預計該項目將在今年年底前實現滿負荷生產並達到目標質量水平。這種快速轉向銘牌運作能力的直接原因是使用 Fenix 現有的相同的直接鋰提取製程。

The 25,000 metric ton carbonate extraction at Olaroz Stage 2 is producing lithium carbonate that will be slower to increase operating rates and meet design quality standards due to the nature of conventional plant-based extraction processes. We expect Stage 2 to continue to increase production rates throughout the second half of this year, while more consistently meeting design quality and to be well on its way towards nameplate production levels later in 2025.

奧拉羅斯 (Olaroz) 第二階段的 25,000 公噸碳酸鹽開採項目正在生產碳酸鋰，由於傳統工廠提取製程的性質，其提高運作率和達到設計品質標準的速度會比較慢。我們預計第 2 階段將在今年下半年繼續提高生產力，同時更持續地滿足設計質量，並在 2025 年下半年順利達到銘牌生產水平。

The lithium hydroxide, the 5,000 metric ton unit in Bessemer City, North Carolina, 15,000 metric ton unit in Zhejiang, China, and the 10,000 metric ton unit in Naraha, Japan are all finalizing qualifications with key customers. They are expected to increase commercial volumes as soon as the lithium carbonate production in Argentina increases to feed them.

氫氧化鋰方面，位於美國北卡羅來納州貝塞麥爾市的5000噸裝置、位於中國浙江的15000噸裝置以及位於日本楢葉町的10000噸裝置均正在與主要客戶進行最終資格認定。一旦阿根廷的碳酸鋰產量增加，他們預計就會增加商業產量。

I will now turn the call back to Gilberto to discuss our updated full year 2024 outlook.

現在我將把電話轉回給吉爾伯托，討論我們更新的 2024 年全年展望。

Thanks, Paul. Turning to Slide 9, you will see our updated 2024 volume growth translating to sales expectations by major products. Combined hydroxide and carbonate sales are now expected to increase by 7,000 to 12,000 metric tons, or 25% higher than 2023 on an LCE basis at the midpoint.

謝謝，保羅。翻到投影片 9，您將看到我們更新後的 2024 年銷售成長轉化為主要產品的銷售預期。目前預計氫氧化物和碳酸鹽的總銷售量將增加 7,000 至 12,000 公噸，以 LCE 中位數計算，比 2023 年高出 25%。

We have maintained our projections for lithium carbonate sales this year by reducing the lithium hydroxide sales. This is for two primary reasons. First, the small delays in our carbonate expansion ramp ups meant that our downstream hydroxide production plans were also slightly impacted for 2024. Second, and more importantly, at the current market price, we have found more attractive opportunities to sell additional carbonate volumes to customers versus selling uncommitted hydroxide volumes, particularly when factoring in the additional conversion costs.

我們透過減少氫氧化鋰的銷售量來維持今年碳酸鋰銷售的預測。主要有兩個原因。首先，我們的碳酸鹽擴張計畫略有延遲，這意味著我們 2024 年的下游氫氧化物生產計畫也會受到輕微影響。其次，更重要的是，在目前的市場價格下，我們發現向客戶出售額外的碳酸鹽的機會比出售未承諾的氫氧化物的機會更具吸引力，特別是考慮到額外的轉換成本。

We are able to leverage this commercial flexibility to current lithium carbonate hydroxide conversion process. Given we will not be reduced to firm volume hydroxide commitments under our multi-year agreements and we are now expecting to sell fewer remaining hydroxide volumes to customers near prevailing market prices, this will provide a customer and product mix, benefit to us that you will see shortly in our scenario outlooks. We have also slightly lower our projected spodumene sales for 2024, as a result, in second half sales volumes be fairly similar to the first half.

我們能夠將這種商業靈活性應用於目前的碳酸鋰氫氧化物轉化製程。鑑於我們不會根據多年期協議減少氫氧化物供應承諾，並且我們目前預計以接近現行市場價格向客戶出售較少的剩餘氫氧化物供應，這將為我們的客戶和產品組合帶來好處，您將我們很快就會在情景展望中看到這一點。我們也稍微下調了 2024 年鋰輝石銷售預測，因此下半年的銷售量將與上半年大致相同。

On Slide 10, I want to provide some commentary on our outlook for other financial items. We have made no adjustments to our full year outlook for SG&A or diluted share count, inclusive of 67.7 million diluted shares from treatment of the convertible notes outstanding. With respect to SG&A, we lowered 2024 outlook by $45 million. This is due to a combination of lower expected ramp up of new production assets, as well as accounting rules that determine when parts of capitalized spending can begin to depreciate.

在第 10 張投影片上，我想對我們對其他財務項目的展望提供一些評論。我們沒有對全年銷售、一般及行政開支或稀釋股數預期進行任何調整，其中包括因處理未償還可轉換票據而產生的 6,770 萬股稀釋股。關於銷售、一般及行政開支，我們將 2024 年預期下調了 4,500 萬美元。這是由於新生產資產預期增幅較低，以及決定部分資本化支出何時開始折舊的會計規則。

We have narrowed the range of our adjusted tax rate to 25% to 30%, lowering the midpoint by 1.5%. This is a result of our progress as Arcadium Lithium continues to integrate the combined operating model, as a global business. And for CapEx, we have lowered the high end of our guidance, resulting in a range of $550 million to $700 million. We expect (technical difficulty) in the second half of the year to be more in-line with the second quarter spending.

我們已將調整後的稅率區間縮小至25%至30%，中間值降低了1.5%。這是 Arcadium Lithium 繼續整合綜合營運模式並將其打造為全球性企業所取得的進展的結果。對於資本支出，我們已下調預期上限，至 5.5 億美元至 7 億美元之間。我們預計下半年的（技術難度）將與第二季的支出更加一致。

On Slide 11, we have provided an updated framework to understand how changes in the market prices for the second half of the year may impact the financial performance of Arcadium Lithium for the full year 2024. We have shown two scenarios using general lithium market price assumptions of $12 and $15 per kilogram on LCE basis for the second half of the year. We keep constant the midpoints of our latest expected sales volumes, cost savings, and SG&A for 2024, by overlaying our existing commercial agreements as applicable.

在第 11 張投影片上，我們提供了一個更新的框架，以了解下半年市場價格的變化如何影響 Arcadium Lithium 2024 年全年的財務表現。我們根據下半年鋰市場的一般價格假設（以 LCE 為基礎，分別為每公斤 12 美元和 15 美元），展示了兩種情境。我們將透過涵蓋現有的商業協議（如適用）來維持 2024 年最新預期銷售量、成本節約和銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）的中點不變。

These scenarios should not be interpreted as a forecast by Arcadium Lithium as to the likely range of Lithium price in the second half of 2024, which they are not. However, they were lower from the initial pricing scenarios we provided in order to be more reflective of where the market is today.

這些情境不應被解讀為 Arcadium Lithium 對 2024 年下半年鋰價可能區間的預測，事實並非如此。然而，為了更好地反映當前的市場狀況，它們低於我們提供的初始定價情境。

You will continue to see that in the lower case where Arcadium Lithium is much easier $12 average price per LCE on its market-based volumes, the business remains highly resilient to more value, quality and low-cost production assets, while offering significant upside to the price rebound in fact, basically.

你將繼續看到，在較低的情況下，Arcadium Lithium 的市場成交量更容易達到每LCE 12 美元的平均價格，該業務對更多價值、品質和低成本的生產資產仍具有很強的彈性，同時為事實上價格基本上已經反彈。

Back to you, Paul.

回到你這裡，保羅。

Thanks, Gilberto. So to wrap up quickly before taking your questions, I just want to reiterate the strong performance of our Arcadium Lithium in the first half of the year. We've generated over $200 million of adjusted EBITDA at a 40% margin so far this year, even as the price environment has been weaker than we initially expected. And we continue to drive cost and performance improvements throughout our expanded operating network.

謝謝，吉爾伯托。因此，在回答你們的問題之前，我先快速總結一下，我只想重申一下我們 Arcadium Lithium 在上半年的強勁表現。今年迄今為止，儘管價格環境比我們最初預期的要弱，但我們已實現超過 2 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，利潤率為 40%。我們將繼續透過不斷擴展的營運網路來推動成本和效能的改進。

We'll continue to invest in responsible growth focused on making sure we position the business to perform well throughout all market cycles. We will look to use our balance sheet sensibly and make sure we're neither investing ahead of or behind what the market needs. We look forward to speaking with you in further detail about all of this at our Investor Day in September.

我們將繼續投資於負責任的成長，重點是確保我們的業務在所有市場週期中都能表現良好。我們將合理使用我們的資產負債表，確保我們的投資不會超出或落後於市場需求。我們期待在九月份的投資者日與您進一步詳細討論所有這些問題。

And I will now turn the call back to Dan for questions.

現在我將把電話轉回給丹來回答問題。

Great, thank you Paul. Jale, You may now begin the Q&A session.

太好了，謝謝你保羅。Jale，您現在可以開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Steve Richardson, Evercore ISI.

（操作員指示）史蒂夫·理查森（Steve Richardson），Evercore ISI。

Hi, thanks for the time this evening. Paul, I appreciate the context on sounds like, some of the concerns around visibility of the market and underlying demand. As you think about putting some of these projects in care, slowing down some of your CapEx, again, it might be early, but I wonder if you could think forward as to what would make you reaccelerate.

你好，感謝您今晚抽出時間。保羅，我很欣賞你所說的背景，聽起來像是對市場可見度和潛在需求的一些擔憂。當您考慮將其中一些項目付諸實施，並放慢部分資本支出時，可能還為時過早，但我想知道您是否可以提前思考什麼會讓您重新加速。

Clearly some skepticism about market prices and indexes. Is it going to take kind of direct OEM involvement or capital producer involvement? Maybe just talk about what would get you kind of more excited about reinvesting beyond just obviously a rise in spot-lithium prices?

顯然對市場價格和指數有些懷疑。這是否需要直接的 OEM 參與或資本生產者的參與？也許只是談論一下除了現貨鋰價格上漲之外，什麼會讓您對於再投資更加興奮？

Well, look, I think it's hard to separate the two. I mean, if we don't have -- if the models that we use to assess whether a dollar invested is going to generate a return are dependent on the price, the price has to be high enough by period. Does that mean the short term spot price increases? Is that enough to convince me? Probably not. I think understanding what's going on in the markets in the dynamics play out and understanding really what the demand patterns look like.

嗯，看，我認為很難將兩者區分開。我的意思是，如果我們沒有——如果我們用來評估投資一美元是否會產生回報的模型依賴於價格，那麼價格在一定時期內必須足夠高。這是否意味著短期現貨價格會上漲？這足以說服我嗎？可能不是。我認為了解市場動態中發生的事情並真正了解需求模式是什麼樣的。

What is the demand for hydroxide versus carbonate, how much merchant spodumene is the market actually going to need. I mean, these are factors that are pretty important when we look at each asset on a case-by-case basis.

氫氧化物和碳酸鹽的需求如何，市場實際上需要多少鋰輝石。我的意思是，當我們逐一檢視每項資產時，這些因素非常重要。

It's frankly easier to accelerate a project that has a strong commitment from a customer or two, whether they put capital in or not. If the commitments are there to bring certainty to the volumes and certainty to the pricing in the future, that also will make it easier for us.

坦白說，如果能得到一兩個客戶的堅定承諾，無論他們是否投入資金，專案就更容易加速。如果這些承諾能夠確保未來產量和定價的確定性，那麼對我們來說也會更容易。

So look, I think the single biggest factor, certainly for James Bay, for the Galaxy project, is if there is a partner out there that wants to come in and help us develop this by bringing certainty to the project while also bringing some capital today, that's probably the single biggest trigger that would help us reaccelerate that project again. But we also just have to be confident that the long-term fundamentals are going to be in a place to justify it.

所以，我認為，對於詹姆斯灣和銀河項目來說，最大的因素是，是否有合作夥伴願意加入我們，幫助我們開發這個項目，為項目帶來確定性，同時也帶來一些資本，這可能是幫助我們重新加速該專案的最大觸發因素。但我們也必須有信心，長期基本面能夠證明這一點。

Makes sense. I wonder if I could just follow up and ask Gilberto on cash, the reconciliation, can you just walk us through kind of ending cash at June 30. And appreciate, I think you indicated that back-half CapEx will be similar to what we saw in the second quarter, at least quarterly. So if you could have me guess what you think ending cash would look like at the $12 kilogram kind of scenario outlook. I think that would be helpful as well.

有道理。我想知道我是否可以跟進並詢問吉爾伯托關於現金、對帳的情況，你能否向我們介紹一下 6 月 30 日結束的現金情況。並且我很感激，我認為您所指出的下半年資本支出將與我們在第二季度看到的類似，至少是按季度來看。所以，如果您能讓我猜一下，在 12 美元/公斤的情景前景下，最終的現金狀況會是什麼樣子。我認為這也會有幫助。

Yeah, so we, for the second half, as we said, we expect a similar CapEx spending and we do not expect the same level of on-time costs that we have faced in the beginning of the year. Some of them related to commercial price adjustments and also related to integration and merger costs. So that would be a relief versus the second half. So naturally, we will not have – what we call cash burn in the second half of the year in any close magnitude that we have in the first half of the year.

是的，正如我們所說，我們預計下半年的資本支出將類似，而且我們預計準時成本不會達到年初的水平。其中一些與商業價格調整有關，也與整合和合併成本有關。因此，與下半場相比，這將是一種解脫。因此自然而然地，我們下半年的現金消耗不會像上半年那麼劇烈。

So again, without giving any specific target number for you or a number, you should clearly assume that we will not be spending the same level for the first half of the year. I would say $200 million to $300 million less than that for sure.

因此，我再說一遍，在不給你任何具體的目標數字或數字的情況下，你應該清楚地假設我們在今年上半年的支出水準不會保持不變。我認為肯定會少 2 億到 3 億美元。

David Deckelbaum, TD Cowen.

大衛·德克爾鮑姆（David Deckelbaum），TD Cowen 公司。

Thanks, Paul. Gilberto, team, thanks for taking my questions. Gilberto, maybe if you could just expand and clarify on that last point you made. It sounded like I was curious on the totality of $500 million reductions, if we should be expecting a capital program next year on the order of $300 million, while your volumes are still guided to expands by 25%, just given, I guess, Fenix 1B commissioning.

謝謝，保羅。吉爾伯托、團隊，感謝你們回答我的問題。吉爾伯托，也許你可否就你提出的最後一點進行擴展和澄清。聽起來我對 5 億美元的削減總額感到好奇，如果我們明年預計資本計劃約為 3 億美元，而您的交易量仍預計增長 25%，我想只是考慮到 Fenix 1B調試。

So it seems like in that scenario, if I'm following your $12 a kilo EBITDA guidance, you shouldn't have an incremental cash burn in 2025, even amidst the lower environment. And it seems like that is sort of like the base absolute level for capex in 2026 as well?

因此，在這種情況下，如果我遵循每公斤 12 美元的 EBITDA 指導，即使在較低的環境下，您在 2025 年也不應該出現增量現金消耗。這似乎也是 2026 年資本支出的基本絕對水準？

Yeah, I think you're right, David, that in 2025, you're going to see the bigger portion of this $500 million savings taking place. No question about that. And I think you are right in your math. I think that based on the $12 price, and again, we have -- again, I don't want to go sight that we have all the contract volumes going to 2025, that they might not necessarily have the same price of this year.

是的，大衛，我認為你是對的，到 2025 年，你將看到這 5 億美元節省的大部分實現。毫無疑問。我認為你的計算是正確的。我認為基於 12 美元的價格，而且，我們——再說一次，我不想看到我們所有的合約量都到 2025 年，它們的價格不一定與今年相同。

So don't assume that we might even have a better prices for next year above market price that we have today. So but yes, I think that $300 million is a relatively good number, but clearly the biggest savings that we're going to have on this $500 million will be taking place in 2025.

因此，不要以為明年的價格甚至會高於今天的市場價格。所以是的，我認為 3 億美元是一個相對較好的數字，但顯然我們將在這 5 億美元上實現的最大節省將發生在 2025 年。

David, I just want to clarify that and make sure you're clear on the point as Gilberto just made with regard to prices next year. We don't have any prices for next year that are lower this year -- than this year in the contracts. We actually have more volume going into those contracts next year too, as the contracts naturally grow. And these will all take or pay.

大衛，我只是想澄清這一點，並確保你清楚吉爾伯托剛才提到的有關明年價格的問題。我們合約中規定的明年價格不會低於今年的價格。事實上，隨著合約數量的自然增長，明年我們簽訂的這些合約的數量也會增加。而這些都只能是接受，不能付費。

All other things being equal, we want to sell more volume under those contract prices next year now. We, of course, add 25% more volume. So it's a little bit more complicated to model than that. But I don't want you to read into any of this. There's a risk to those contract prices being lower next year, because there is.

在其他所有條件相同的情況下，我們希望明年能夠以這些合約價格銷售更多產品。當然，我們的音量增加了 25%。因此建模要比這稍微複雜一些。但我不希望你過度解讀這些。明年這些合約價格可能會降低，因為確實存在這樣的風險。

No, yeah. No, I know that we are dealing with back of the envelope math right now, but it seemed like on the cocktail you should at least be in a strong fundamental picture next year. My follow-up, if I might. Yeah, sorry. Go ahead, Paul.

不，是的。不，我知道我們現在正在處理信封背面的數學問題，但看起來，在雞尾酒療法上，你至少應該在明年有一個強勁的基本面。如果可以的話，這是我的後續行動。是的，抱歉。繼續吧，保羅。

No. I was just going to reiterate the point. I think you're right. Most of the capital savings are 2020, 2025 savings. First half of 2026, but more than half of that $500 million reduction in capital spending will be visible next year.

不。我只是想重申這一點。我認為你是對的。大部分資本節省是2020年、2025年的節省。2026 年上半年，但 5 億美元資本支出減少中超過一半將在明年顯現。

That's good to hear. And perhaps, I guess, pivoting a little bit harder here, just on the lithium metal side, with the recent acquisition and obviously, I know you have (technical difficulty) in the portfolio, so now you have, you know, it seems like two emergent solutions around converting products into different, or different products into lithium metal. I'm curious from your view, I mean you talk about, you gave us our macro view, when do you see lithium metal being a material source of commercial activity for Arcadium?

我很高興聽到這個消息。也許，我想，在鋰金屬方面，隨著最近的收購，這裡的轉型可能會更加艱難，很明顯，我知道你的投資組合存在（技術困難），所以現在，你知道，看起來圍繞著將產品轉化為不同的產品，或將不同的產品轉化為鋰金屬的兩個新興解決方案。我很好奇您的看法，我的意思是您談到了，您給了我們宏觀觀點，您何時認為鋰金屬會成為 Arcadium 商業活動的重要來源？

You know, the semiconductors you know, a big chunk of our business today is lithium metal price, it just happens to contribute lithium and other specialties. So don't forget, we have a pretty large internal demand for lithium metal and just so people recall, we've historically either told lithium chloride in China or converted to ourselves. We do make lithium chloride ourselves.

你知道，半導體，我們今天業務的很大一部分是鋰金屬價格，它恰好為鋰和其他特殊產品做出貢獻。所以別忘了，我們對鋰金屬有相當大的內部需求，讓人們回想一下，我們歷史上要么告訴中國氯化鋰，要么轉向我們自己。我們確實自己生產氯化鋰。

Lithium chloride-based processes are not the most pleasant processes to run and from a responsible operations and a safety and an environmental perspective, we've been looking for a way to bring more metal production in house, but not using the chloride-based process. And so this acquisition is really all about secure and more supply for our existing business.

基於氯化鋰的工藝並不是最令人愉快的工藝，從負責任的運營、安全和環境的角度來看，我們一直在尋找一種方法來在內部實現更多的金屬生產，但不使用基於氯化物的工藝。因此，此次收購實際上是為了確保我們現有業務的供應並增加供應。

If you ask me when do I think lithium metal will be a big piece of the energy storage business, I think we're probably five, six, seven years away from it being a major volume of the business. It requires, I think, some evolution in solid state technologies or semi-solid state technologies and a broadening of the applications that are being deployed too. When it takes off, it'll take off pretty quickly, but we've been saying for a while, not meaning to before 2030, and that thinking hasn't really changed yet.

如果你問我什麼時候認為鋰金屬將成為儲能業務的重要組成部分，我認為可能還需要五、六、七年的時間，鋰金屬才能成為業務的主要組成部分。我認為，這需要固態技術或半固態技術的進步以及正在部署的應用範圍的擴大。一旦起飛，就會很快起飛，但我們一直在說，並不意味著要在 2030 年之前，而這種想法還沒有真正改變。

Glyn Lawcock, Barrenjoey.

格林·勞科克，巴倫喬伊。

Good afternoon Paul. Just a couple of quick ones. Just firstly, you've obviously got your CapEx guidance that you gave us a quarter ago which was basically I think about 1.6 over the next three years. So is that the $500 million just comes off that. And then obviously with the slowdown and everything we're seeing in the market -- everything we're seeing in the market. Is it fair to say that the CapEx numbers will get an update on individual project CapEx which is likely to increase at the Strategy Day next month?

下午好，保羅。僅舉幾個例子。首先，您顯然已經獲得了您在一個季度前提供給我們的資本支出指導，我認為未來三年的資本支出約為 1.6 億美元。那麼這 5 億美元就從那裡扣除了。然後顯然隨著經濟放緩以及我們在市場上看到的一切——我們在市場上看到的一切。是否可以說，資本支出數字將在下個月的策略日上更新，個別項目的資本支出可能會增加？

You will get an update at the Strategy Day next month. I don't know whether the numbers are going to be higher. There certainly will be probably some slightly different nuances because, as you know, slowing the project down doesn't make them cheaper typically. But I think the numbers that we have out there for CapEx really reflect our latest estimates on an aggregate basis for the project. So you may be surprised on a project by project basis but it'll add up to the same number I would guess at the seasons today.

您將在下個月的策略日上獲得最新消息。我不知道這個數字是否會更高。肯定會有一些略微不同的細微差別，因為如你所知，放慢專案進度通常不會讓它們變得更便宜。但我認為，我們所掌握的資本支出數字確實反映了我們對該項目的最新總體估計。因此，您可能會對每個項目感到驚訝，但加起來的數字將與我今天猜測的數字相同。

Okay thanks and then just quickly Mt. Cattlin, I mean obviously $700 cost base I assume that's US with the ad in freight, the quality adjustment, is it worth keeping it open? Is that something you're actually considering is putting it on care and maintenance?

好的，謝謝，然後快速說一下 Mt. Cattlin，我的意思是，顯然 700 美元的成本基礎，我假設這是美國加上運費廣告、質量調整，是否值得保持開放？您是否真正考慮過對其進行保養和維護？

Mt. Cattlin is a difficult one because Q2 it definitely made sense to keep operating here. The latest prices we see, the spot concentrate, they're 30% lower than they were in Q2. You're touching $700 or so per ton for spodumene right now. It clearly does not make sense to operate anywhere, in Manhattan or anywhere else, if your cash costs are $700 and you know about capital into it to get ready for the next phase of mining as we're stripping as we go.

卡特林山 (Mattlin) 是一個困難的地方，因為 Q2 繼續在這裡運作絕對有意義。我們看到的最新價格，現貨精礦價格比第二季低了 30%。目前鋰輝石的價格已達到每噸約 700 美元。如果您的現金成本為 700 美元，並且您知道將資本投入其中以準備進行下一階段的採礦（因為我們正在進行剝離），那麼在曼哈頓或其他任何地方進行運營顯然是沒有意義的。

The question of care and maintenance, it's got to be active in these market conditions absolutely and I can imagine we are asking those questions pretty intensively internally about is that the right strategy for Mt. Cattlin right now. I don't want to react to just you know one or two price points that come out of China for spot concentrate but if it looks clear that we're in a period of spodumene prices that are, you know, three digits and not four digits, then I think the whole care and maintenance question becomes much more acute.

在這樣的市場條件下，絕對需要積極討論護理和維護問題，我可以想像，我們內部正在非常深入地詢問這些問題，這是否是目前 Mt. Cattlin 的正確策略。我不想只對中國現貨精礦的一兩個價格點做出反應，但如果很明顯我們正處於鋰輝石價格為三位數而不是四位數的時期數字，那麼我認為整個護理和維護問題就會變得更加嚴重。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc.

阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫，KeyBanc。

Thanks. Good morning. Sorry, good afternoon. Gilberto, I was hoping you could maybe provide us with an idea of how you envision a sort of two finance, whatever capital program is going to happen for the rest of this year and next year. What should we expect to happen on the balance sheet and cash flow statement? I mean, if you can provide us with any specific numbers, that would be great, but if not, maybe just sources of capital would be helpful as well.

謝謝。早安.抱歉，下午好。吉爾伯托，我希望您能為我們提供您設想的兩種融資方式，以及今年剩餘時間和明年將實施的資本計劃。我們應該期待資產負債表和現金流量表發生什麼？我的意思是，如果您能為我們提供任何具體的數字，那就太好了，但如果不能，也許資金來源也會有所幫助。

Yes, so I think the source of funding will continue to be, you know, operating cash flow. As I said, initially in the call, we won't have as much cash requirements in the second half as we had in the first half of the year, as I already mentioned. So, and we're going to be continuing to generate a lot of operating cash flow. And again, we're adding more volumes in the second half of the year, which will drive more operating cash flow. Next year, we also added another 25% versus this year of volume. We will continue to drive more operating cash flow.

是的，所以我認為資金來源將繼續是經營現金流。正如我最初在電話會議上所說的那樣，我們下半年的現金需求不會像上半年那麼多，正如我之前提到的。因此，我們將繼續產生大量的經營現金流。而且，我們將在今年下半年增加銷量，這將帶來更多的營運現金流。明年，我們的銷量還將比今年增加 25%。我們將繼續推動更多的經營現金流。

You know, we remain untapped on our $500 million credit facility. So we can always access that as well. So as of this time, you know, we were not expecting to do. We will continue to monitor the market and how we continue to evolve, but the plan is to be self-funded, our CapEx. And again, this is related to reduce the CapEx investments we have by $500 million in the next 24 months. And I'll just add, we are also going to be looking in further cost savings and reductions that will also help us from a cash perspective as well.

你知道，我們的 5 億美元信貸額度仍未動用。因此我們也可以隨時存取它。所以到目前為止，你知道，我們還沒有想到要這麼做。我們將繼續關注市場以及我們如何繼續發展，但計劃是自籌資金，即我們的資本支出。再次強調，這與未來 24 個月內減少 5 億美元的資本支出有關。我還要補充一點，我們還將尋求進一步的成本節約和削減，這對我們的現金角度也大有裨益。

So self-funded meaning you do not anticipate needing the revolver.

因此，自籌資金意味著您預計不需要左輪手槍。

No, I do anticipate using the revolver. I mentioned that, yes.

不，我確實打算使用左輪手槍。我有提到過，是的。

Okay. Thank you for clarification. And then Paul, just I think you made fairly specific comments about pricing already but such an important point I was hoping to clarify. So next year if, let's say scenario where market indices do not change, you do not expect Arcadium's realized prices to change as well and serve to stay in a similar premium position as they are today.

好的。感謝您的澄清。然後保羅，我認為你已經對定價做出了相當具體的評論，但這是一個非常重要的觀點，我希望澄清。因此，假設明年市場指數不變，您預計 Arcadium 的實際價格也不會發生變化，並且將保持與今天類似的溢價地位。

If we have prices staying where they are for all of next year, the average price will be lower. Why? Because the proportion of prices that are under our contracts becomes low. While the absolute tonnage goes up, so does the number of the tonnage that we sell into spot markets as well. So it's going to be slightly lower than we have achieved in the first half of this year but there's no scenario where it is because the market price is $12. We're not going to average $12. It's almost mathematically impossible for that average price to go to the market based on what we see today.

如果明年全年價格不變，平均價格就會更低。為什麼？因為我們合約中的價格比例變低了。隨著絕對噸位的增加，我們銷往現貨市場的噸位也增加。因此，該數字將略低於我們今年上半年實現的水平，但不會發生這種情況，因為市場價格為 12 美元。我們的平均價格不會是 12 美元。以我們今天所見的情況來看，從數字上來說，該平均價格幾乎不可能進入市場。

Robert Stein, Macquarie.

麥格理的羅伯特‧史坦 (Robert Stein)。

Hi Paul, thanks for the opportunity. Just a question on downside scenario. So if pricing were lower than $12, we still expecting a non-linear projection on EBITDA towards the range. So if it was $10, say, we're not essentially drawing a straight line between the two. I think that we asked the question at the last quarterly and in the ranges between $15 and $25 and it kind of got fobbed off a little bit but obviously we are where we are today so it'd just be helpful to understand the resilience under a price scenario that's lower than the lower end of the range.

嗨，保羅，謝謝你的機會。這只是一個關於不利情景的問題。因此，如果定價低於 12 美元，我們仍然預期 EBITDA 將呈現非線性預測。因此，如果價格是 10 美元，我們不一定會在兩者之間畫一條直線。我認為我們在上個季度問過這個問題，範圍在 15 美元到 25 美元之間，但這個問題有點被搪塞了，但顯然我們現在處於目前的狀況，所以了解在價格情景低於範圍的低端。

Yeah, but you know the $15 to $25 range we gave last time and even the $12 to $15 now, $12 to $15, whichever, wherever you are once you get down to that level, it's below the floor prices that we have in our contracts, which is why it's not linear when it moves. Because you've got a chunk of it that just doesn't change. If the price goes $15, $12, $10, $5, a piece of that pricing just doesn't change. The floor prices are in place.

是的，但你知道我們上次給出的15 到25 美元的範圍，甚至現在的12 到15 美元，12 到15 美元，無論你在哪裡，一旦你降到那個水平，它都低於我們合同中的底價，這就是為什麼它移動時不是線性的。因為你已經得到了一大塊不會改變的東西。如果價格變成 15 美元、12 美元、10 美元、5 美元，那麼部分定價就不會改變。底價已經到位。

Once you get above the flow prices, on the way up, it does become perfectly linear. You can then deal with it that way, but we're not really that close to getting above those floor prices. So I don't want to just pop off your question, Mark, and I was just trying to explain that it's just not -- it sort of depends. The floor prices are between the first, you know, the range we gave last time, $15 to $25, it was harder to answer that question because the floor price sits somewhere between those two prices. But if you're going $15 to $12 or $12 to $10, the floor price doesn't come into play.

一旦超過流量價格，上升過程中它就會變得完全線性。然後你可以用這種方式來處理，但實際上我們並沒有接近超過這些底價。所以我不想突然提出你的問題，馬克，我只是想解釋一下，這不是——這有點視情況而定。底價介於第一個價格之間，您知道，我們上次給出的範圍是 15 美元到 25 美元，這個問題很難回答，因為底價介於這兩個價格之間。但如果你以 15 美元兌 12 美元或 12 美元兌 10 美元的價格出售，底價就不會起作用。

So it's linear on the additional volumes but you still got to account for the fact that a big chunk of volumes are out of a set floor price under these scenarios that we've put out there.

因此，它與額外交易量呈線性關係，但你仍然必須考慮到，在我們提出的這些情境下，很大一部分交易量超出了設定的底價。

Yeah okay And I guess another sort of contracting market related question. Can you help us think through how the volume commitments may change into the future, should a downside scenario emerge? So if I understand your contracting strategy correctly, you engage with downstream parties, you get commitment volumes, you arrange floor pricing that sort of underpins returns that are attractive to your growth.

是的，好的，我想這是另一個與收縮市場相關的問題。如果出現不利情況，您能否幫助我們思考未來的數量承諾將如何改變？因此，如果我正確理解了您的承包策略，您就會與下游方合作，獲得承諾量，安排底價，從而支撐對您的成長有吸引力的回報。

So are we essentially seeing a slowdown because we're just not getting the bidder interest for your contracts at pricing that underpins attractive expansions? i.e., from a capital allocation point of view, we can expect you to generate positive free cash flow generation in lieu of firm test demand up until when that firm demand re-emerges. I guess your question's really trying to understand how your downstream customers are interacting with you around their projected demand profiles and is there any risk to future growth scenarios out past this year?

那麼，我們是否從本質上看到了成長放緩，因為我們沒有以支撐有吸引力的擴張的價格獲得對您的合約的競標興趣？即，從資本配置的角度來看，我們可以預期您將在公司測試需求之外產生正的自由現金流，直到公司需求重新出現為止。我想你的問題實際上是想了解你的下游客戶如何就他們預計的需求概況與你進行互動，以及今年以後的未來成長情景是否存在風險？

It's an interesting world we find ourselves in. So the customers that we have today are continuing to view it. We may be overstating it. I mean, maybe it's just us and we think we're better than we are, but customers tend to treat us like a partner in their supply chain conundrum. So they don't just come to us and say, I want a product. They're trying to work with us to try and figure out which part of the supply chain it makes sense for Arcadium to be in.

我們發現我們身處在一個有趣的世界。因此，我們今天的客戶正在繼續查看它。我們或許有些誇大其詞。我的意思是，也許這只是我們自己的觀點，我們認為我們比實際情況要好，但客戶往往把我們當作他們供應鏈難題中的合作夥伴。所以他們不會只是來找我們說，我想要一個產品。他們正在嘗試與我們合作，試圖找出 Arcadium 應該進入供應鏈的哪個環節。

For example, with battery technology, which cathode producers or cell producers. And so we work with them about where it makes most sense for our materials to go. And they're also looking for flexibility from us, particularly as they think about different technologies between hydroxide and carbonate.

例如電池技術，有哪些陰極生產商或電芯生產商。因此，我們與他們合作，確定我們的材料最合理的用途。他們也希望我們提供靈活性，特別是當他們考慮氫氧化物和碳酸鹽之間的不同技術時。

And so they're actually spending more and more time qualifying more and more of our materials so that they have as much flexibility to take product from across our network. And so the single biggest differentiator that we are finding today is our ability to a, have multiple sources of supply, multiple locations, multiple geographies, multiple products.

因此，他們實際上花費越來越多的時間來鑑定我們越來越多的材料，以便他們能夠盡可能靈活地從我們的網路中獲取產品。因此，我們今天發現的最大的區別因素是我們能夠擁有多個供應源、多個地點、多個地理位置和多種產品。

And this is really important, to actually get the qualification versus into their supply chains. All of this means that the existing customers that we have today are all very keen to expand their relationship with us.

這對於真正獲得資格並將其納入供應鏈確實非常重要。所有這些都意味著我們今天的現有客戶都非常渴望擴大與我們的關係。

In most cases that means they've brought a product offering, brought a qualification and pretty much all of them slowly increasing volume commitments on their part and on our part as we look into the future. Now if the question is -- are we adding more and more customers like that, in these market conditions, no.

在大多數情況下，這意味著他們帶來了產品和資格，並且展望未來，他們幾乎都在慢慢增加他們和我們的數量承諾。現在的問題是──在目前的市場條件下，我們是否會增加越來越多的客戶，答案是否定的。

I think most of those customers, and this is not because the price is low and so they don't feel they need to, they're also trying to figure out their supply change too and who they want their partners to be and what material they need and how important the IRA and how much is going to be LFP or mid-nickel and so on and so forth.

我認為大多數客戶，這並不是因為價格低，所以他們覺得不需要，他們也在試圖弄清楚他們的供應變化，他們希望他們的合作夥伴是誰，以及他們使用什麼材料他們需要IRA 有多重要，有多少是LFP 或中等鎳幣，等等。

So this is what I mentioned in the script about sort of the technology flux and the lack of visibility. It's more difficult today to bring a potential customer to the table to engage with you and put in place a long-term supply agreement. That doesn't mean that they're not all talking to us or that they don't want to do this.

這就是我在腳本中提到的技術變化和缺乏可見性的問題。如今，讓潛在客戶與您接洽並達成長期供應協議變得更加困難。這並不意味著他們沒有和我們交談，或者他們不想這樣做。

They're just frankly just not ready, not in a place yet that they feel they can make those additional commitments. And it's why in the next two years to three years, we will quite likely have more material being sold not under these contracts and will be truly purely market exposed.

坦白說，他們還沒準備好，他們覺得自己還不能做出那些額外的承諾。這就是為什麼在未來兩到三年內，我們很可能會有更多的材料不按照這些合約出售，並且真正純粹地暴露在市場上。

The contracts we have, none of them expire in the next three years or four years so they're not going anywhere but today at least I don't have a roadmap to adding a ton more you know customer contracts in the next 6 months to 12 months.

我們簽訂的合約都不會在未來三年或四年內到期，所以它們不會消失，但至少今天我還沒有在未來 6 個月內增加大量客戶合約的路線圖12個月。

Pavel Molchanov, Raymond James.

帕維爾·莫爾查諾夫、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Thanks for taking the question. How soon do you anticipate re-evaluating your capital spending plans and what do you need to see to take that next step?

感謝您回答這個問題。您預計多久會重新評估您的資本支出計劃以及您需要看到什麼才能採取下一步行動？

So it's interesting. We have a couple of projects that actually have a degree of momentum behind them that I wouldn't say makes them inevitable to keep moving them forward, but it would take a lot for us to stop them, either because of commitments we've made to contractors and construction, or commitments we've made to customers and other partners. So I don't see us changing those. I think when it comes to the other two projects that we're going to put on hold, and I say put on hold, it is on hold, it's not perpetual, we do expect to restart them.

所以這很有趣。我們有幾個專案實際上有一定勢頭，我不會說這必然會繼續向前發展，但我們很難阻止它們，要么因為我們所做的承諾對承包商和建築業，或對客戶和其他合作夥伴所做的承諾。因此我認為我們不會改變這些。我認為，當談到我們將要暫停的另外兩個項目時，我說暫停，就是暫停，不是永久的，我們確實希望重新啟動它們。

As I said, rather than doing four projects at once, we expect to do two at once. So as we finish construction and bring online a big project in Canada, in Nemaska, we can then move on to starting James Bay. And the same is true in Argentina. As we finish one of the two Hombre Muerto projects, we can move on to the other one.

正如我所說的，我們不想同時做四個項目，而是希望同時做兩個項目。因此，當我們在加拿大內馬斯卡完成建設並啟動大項目後，我們就可以開始啟動詹姆斯灣計畫了。阿根廷的情況也是如此。當我們完成兩個 Hombre Muerto 專案中的一個時，我們就可以轉向另一個。

We clearly will revisit that second step, depending on what market conditions are between now and then. We've got 16 months -- 18 months probably to have to make that decision, so I don't expect a big revisit in the next 16 months to 18 months, but it will absolutely be front and center in our minds as we move through 2025, what conditions are we in and do the markets justify as starting those two projects?

顯然，我們將重新審視第二步，這取決於現在和那時的市場狀況。我們可能有16 個月到18 個月的時間來做出這個決定，所以我不認為在未來16 個月到18 個月內會有大的重新審視，但這絕對是我們行動過程中最關注的問題到 2025 年，我們處於什麼樣的條件以及市場是否適合啟動這兩個專案？

Okay, following up on that, why is Nemaska kind of protected from the OpEx reductions in other areas of the business?

好的，接下來，為什麼 Nemaska 不會受到業務其他領域營運支出削減的影響？

Yeah, look, I wouldn't say it's protected. It's just that when you line them up and you look at the economics of the project, we think that a Nemaska project is unusual. Nothing's unique, but it's certainly unusual in our industry. Being a non-Chinese, fully integrated hydroxide plant, it has a fantastic environmental footprint with the hydroelectric power that it uses.

是的，看，我不會說它受到保護。只是，當你把它們排成一行，並看看項目的經濟性時，我們認為 Nemaska 項目是不尋常的。沒有什麼是獨特的，但在我們的行業中這肯定是不尋常的。作為一家非中國製造的全集成氫氧化物工廠，它利用水力發電，對環境產生了極好的影響。

It's quite well advanced, quite a long way advanced, particularly the mine, but also even the Wrecking Co chemical plant. And some of you guys will see the chemical plant on when we do the Investor Day, and we head up there.

它相當先進，相當先進，特別是礦井，甚至 Wrecking Co 化工廠也是如此。當我們舉辦投資者日時，有些人會看到化工廠，然後我們就會去那裡。

It's also, frankly, backed by a customer who's provided both capital and a contract that incentivizes both of us to bring that plant online on schedule. So it has a bunch of characteristics to it. Although the fact that while it's a big project, 50% are owned by somebody else, so we're only responsible for half the capital. So it also has a near-term cash demand profile that's more favorable as well.

坦白說，它也得到了客戶的支持，客戶提供了資金和合同，激勵我們雙方按時投產該工廠。所以它有很多特點。雖然這是一個大項目，但 50% 的股份歸別人所有，所以我們只負責一半的資金。因此其短期現金需求狀況也更為有利。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的喬爾傑克遜 (Joel Jackson)。

Hey, good afternoon. Maybe following up on the Nemaska, so one of your major competitors, you know, is talking about over the last week that, you know, the shift to the West never happened. Conversion assets in Australia don't make money, they lose money, they're not competitive to China. You know, even you guys Naraha, you know, taking a long time to ramp up outside of China.

嘿，下午好。也許是對 Nemaska 的後續報導，你知道，你的一個主要競爭對手在上週談到，向西方的轉變從未發生過。澳洲的轉換資產不賺錢，而是虧錢，與中國相比沒有競爭力。你知道，就連你們楢葉集團也花了很長時間才在中國以外的地方擴張。

We all know what's happening in Australia with conversion. It's a long question, sorry. I mean, think of the Nemaska. Does it make sense that can quotes -- to do conversion? Does it make sense just to be a spodumene merchant mine there or feed your other network? I mean, are you worried that conversion is a negative margin component?

我們都知道澳洲的轉變情況。這個問題太長了，抱歉。我的意思是，想想 Nemaska。用引號--來進行轉換有意義嗎？僅僅在那裡成為一個鋰輝石商業礦山或為你的其它網絡提供供應是否有意義？我的意思是，您是否擔心轉換率是負利潤的一個組成部分？

Definitely not worried it's a negative margin component. I mean, you've got to bear in mind the nature of the way we've structured that plan. With customer contracts, we have a lot of confidence that that is going to be, that it has pricing available to it that generates acceptable returns. You know, it's interesting. We've asked ourselves this question, Joel. I don't think that being a merchant of spodumene out of China is a particularly attractive model for many people. It's incredibly volatile. It's a long shipping distance. Mining in Canada is not as easy as people think it is. A lot of challenges with permits, et cetera.

絕對不必擔心這是一個負利潤組成部分。我的意思是，你必須牢記我們制定該計劃的方式的性質。有了客戶合同，我們非常有信心，它可以提供可以產生可接受回報的定價。你知道，這很有趣。我們也問過自己這個問題，喬爾。我認為，對許多人來說，成為中國以外的鋰輝石商人並不是一個特別有吸引力的模式。它的波動性極強。運輸距離很長。在加拿大採礦並不像人們想像的那麼容易。許可證等方面面臨很多挑戰。

So, you know, I don't know that being a merchant to a spodumene concentrate from Canada into China, and that is the only hope for it. It's something that we would have taken on today if that's where we sat. And, frankly, it's part of the challenge that James Bay has when we assess it. But I also think that the hydroxide plant that we're building there at Bécancour, I suspect, well, I don't suspect, I'm pretty confident that if we started that project from scratch today, it would be more expensive to build starting today than it's going to be for us. Just the passage of time, cost of material going up, et cetera.

所以，你知道，我不知道身為商人，能否將鋰輝石精礦從加拿大運到中國，而這也是唯一的希望。如果我們今天就坐在那裡，我們就會承擔這件事。坦白說，這是我們評估詹姆斯灣時面臨的挑戰的一部分。但我也認為，我們在貝坎庫爾建造的氫氧化物工廠，我懷疑，好吧，我不懷疑，我非常有信心，如果我們今天從頭開始啟動這個項目，成本會更高從今天開始建設比我們預期的要困難得多。只是時間的流逝，材料成本的上漲，等等。

And it is, look, we'll talk a lot about this on the Investor Day, but I will be you about what regional demand, what the ex-China world looks like, what that demand looks like. There is absolutely going to be a shortage of supply of lithium hydroxide that doesn't touch China. Whether that's important for IRA purposes or whether it's important for broad resilience of supply chain purposes, we do think that even though that market's not going to be a 600,000 ton a year market, it's certainly plenty big enough to absorb the 32,000 tons that Bécancour will produce.

是的，我們會看到，在投資者日我們會就此進行大量討論，但我將向您介紹區域需求是什麼樣的，中國以外的世界是什麼樣的，需求是什麼樣的。不涉及中國的氫氧化鋰供應絕對會出現短缺。無論這對 IRA 目的是否重要，或者對於供應鏈的廣泛彈性是否重要，我們確實認為，即使該市場不會達到每年 60 萬噸的市場，也足以吸收 Bé 的 32,000 噸cancour 將製作。

So when you think about it that way, think about it as part of a network, think about how far advanced it is, think about the partner that we have, the low-cost hydro. Maybe that can cause not the best representation of what an ex-China downstream conversion plant looks like economically. I certainly do not believe that generally speaking, today, building a North American conversion plant in most locations without significant government help will make sense. Economically, it is unlikely to make sense.

所以當你這樣思考的時候，把它當作網路的一部分，想想它有多先進，想想我們的合作夥伴，低成本的水電。這或許不能最好地體現中國以外的下游轉化工廠的經濟狀況。我當然不相信，一般來說，今天在沒有政府大力幫助的情況下在大多數地方建造一座北美轉化工廠是有意義的。從經濟角度來看，這不太可能。

Okay, another big picture question. I know like big picture questions. I think in the lithium industry, obviously evolving quickly, but there's a lot of irrational behavior going on, right? So we talk about lepidolite producers are definitely producing below cost. The pricing are below their cost, but hey, a lot of that is downstream integrated, so who cares?

好的，另一個大問題。我知道類似大局問題。我認為鋰產業顯然發展迅速，但也存在著許多不合理的行為，對嗎？因此我們認為鋰雲母生產商的產量肯定低於成本。定價低於成本，但嘿，其中很多都是下游整合的，所以誰在乎呢？

You've got African spodumene ramping up, the grades aren't great, concerns who's going to take it, but we'll see. SQM can't really stop pumping brine out because of the unique complexities of their arrangements there with Quota Delco yourself 25% increase, I believe in LCE for next year almost take a bit of conversion off the market. No one's stopping really to produce more and more and more. So Paul, what's going to give?

非洲鋰輝石的產量正在增加，但品質不太好，人們擔心誰會購買它，但我們拭目以待。SQM 無法真正停止抽出鹽水，因為他們在那裡的安排非常複雜，而配額 Delco 自己增加了 25%，我相信明年的 LCE 幾乎會從市場上撤出一些。沒有人真正停止生產越來越多的產品。那麼保羅，會發生什麼事呢？

That is a big picture question, Joel. Look, you know, I think I've said to a bunch of you, I don't consider the African spot or lepidolite to be irrational. I think it might be economically irrational, but it's not irrational when you view it from other perspectives, particularly security supply chain. We've spoken about this a bunch of times, I think, you and I, about why I think it makes sense for them to do that.

這是一個宏觀問題，喬爾。聽著，你知道，我想我已經對你們很多人說過了，我並不認為非洲斑點或鋰雲母是不合理的。我認為從經濟角度來看這可能是不合理的，但從其他角度來看，尤其是安全供應鏈，它並不是不合理的。我想，我們已經討論過這個問題很多次了，我們討論過為什麼我認為他們這樣做是有道理的。

I think though, you know, if you go back a few years, go back to like 2018 and 2019, the hydroxide market was high, pricing was pretty good, and then all of a sudden, somebody brought on a new hydroxide plant and the price collapsed. Why? Because the market was only 150,000 -- 140,000 tons a year, so one plant can make a difference.

我認為，如果你回溯到幾年前，例如 2018 年和 2019 年，氫氧化物市場價格很高，價格也相當不錯，然後突然間，有人建起了一座新的氫氧化物工廠，價格暴跌。為什麼？因為市場每年只有 15 萬至 14 萬噸，所以一個工廠就能產生很大的影響。

If you look at what happened going into this year, into 2024, best we can estimate all of the lithium demand growth that happened between 2023 and 2024 on an LCE basis. It was a couple hundred thousand tons of extra demand was needed, was all satisfied by this unexpected wall of the lepidolite and African spodumene.

如果你看看今年和 2024 年的情況，我們就可以根據 LCE 估算出 2023 年至 2024 年期間發生的所有鋰需求成長。原本需要數十萬噸的額外需求，全部被這堵意想不到的鋰雲母和非洲鋰輝石牆滿足了。

And so what happened is there was no volume, no demand growth for everybody else. It's a flat market for the rest of us. It's blindsided, ours is blindsided, and much of the market. But a lot of the investments that are bringing volume on today were made prior to this, right? And you can't stop them. You've been around enough to know once a project is underway, it's underway, and stopping it can be really expensive and destructive. And so there's a tendency to finish what we started.

所以發生的情況是，沒有銷量，其他人的需求也沒有成長。對我們其他人來說這是一個平淡的市場。它措手不及，我們措手不及，大部分市場也是如此。但如今帶來交易量的許多投資都是在此之前進行的，對嗎？你無法阻止他們。你已經足夠了解這個行業了，知道一旦一個專案開始了，它就一直在進行中，而停止它的代價可能是非常昂貴的，具有破壞性的。所以，我們有完成自己開始的事情的傾向。

And so what also happens is our reaction time in industry is not quick. It just isn't. It takes us a while to react. And we get helped for sure just by the fundamental growth patterns that we've seen. I mean, despite everybody's fears of flowing demand, just the EV pool alone, as we just said, on a gigawatt hour basis, which is the best proxy we have for lithium demand, 20% growth year-over-year from the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2024. And this is before we factor in some of the growth in grid storage, especially in storage demand that's really coming up quickly.

因此，我們的產業反應時間也不夠快。事實並非如此。我們需要一段時間才能做出反應。我們所看到的基本成長模式肯定會對我們有所幫助。我的意思是，儘管每個人都擔心需求會大幅下降，但正如我們剛才所說，僅從電動汽車電池來看，以千兆瓦時為基礎，這是我們衡量鋰需求的最佳指標，與上半年相比，成長了20%。這還沒有考慮到電網儲存的成長，特別是快速成長的儲存需求。

So, you know, what needs to happen is this cycle needs to play out and we need to get into the next cycle. There will be a natural tightening of supply and demand just from demand growth and the inability of the last big growth driver, the lepidolite and African spodumene, so it will sort itself out. It just is going to take a few quarters to get there.

所以，你知道，需要發生的是這個循環需要發揮作用，我們需要進入下一個循環。光從需求成長和最後一大成長動力——鋰雲母和非洲鋰輝石的無力來看，供需就會自然收緊，所以它會自行解決。只需幾季就能達到這個目標。

I would love to be able to tell you that a whole bunch of people will stop producing, but the truth is, you know, if you run five, six, seven different assets, maybe you can do that on one of your assets, but this industry continues to be populated by single asset companies.

我很想告訴你，一大群人將停止生產，但事實是，你知道，如果你經營五、六、七種不同的資產，也許你可以在其中一種資產上做到這一點，但該行業仍由單一資產公司主導。

Single asset resource companies cannot afford to stop production or massive retail production. And so they'll hold on and hold on and hold on for longer than is rational. But yeah, there's a lot going on in this industry still. It's still rapidly changing on both the supply and the demand side, and it just takes time for situations like this to work through.

單一資產資源公司無法承受停止生產或大規模零售生產的後果。所以他們會堅持下去，堅持的時間比理性的時間還要長。不過，這個行業仍然有很多事情發生。供給和需求雙方仍在迅速變化，這種情況需要時間來解決。

Hugo Nicolaci, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Hugo Nicolaci。

Morning. Paul, Gilberto and Dan, thanks for the update. Just one on the projects themselves. Hearing from some of your peers in Argentina that they potentially lost up to 50 days of construction this year alone due to weather impacts, mainly wind in the region. What level of disruption have you seen at Fenix and Sal de Vida this year so far before the deferral and how much buffer have you built into the timelines that you've now restated on those projects, thanks.

早晨。保羅、吉爾伯托和丹，感謝你們的更新。僅就項目本身而言。聽阿根廷的一些同行說，光是今年，由於天氣影響（主要是該地區的風），他們就可能損失多達 50 天的施工時間。今年到目前為止，在延期之前，您看到 Fenix 和 Sal de Vida 出現了什麼程度的混亂，以及您在現在重申的這些項目的時間表中預留了多少緩衝，謝謝。

Yeah, we've not seen any delays on construction from weather or anything else. We do see some delays on startup of Fenix 1A, which were caused by factors outside our control basically infrastructure, masses that were controlled by suppliers that they weren't able to fulfill their obligation, but sort of a one-off unique issue that we have that's now resolved.

是的，我們沒有看到任何因天氣或其他原因而導致的施工延誤。我們確實看到Fenix 1A 啟動時出現了一些延遲，這是由我們無法控制的因素造成的，基本上是基礎設施，受供應商控制的質量，他們無法履行義務，但這是我們無法控制的一次性獨特問題現在已經解決了。

But we've seen none in there at all. As for putting buffers in there, I mean, you can imagine that schedule does not end on March 31, we tell you guys what we're going to do on April 1. We do put some buffers in there with regard to the normal delays that we have. Is it going to be enough?

但我們在那裡根本沒看見任何東西。至於在那裡設置緩衝，我的意思是，你可以想像時間表不會在 3 月 31 日結束，我們會在 4 月 1 日告訴你們我們要做什麼。針對正常的延遲，我們確實設定了一些緩衝區。這夠了嗎？

I think given where our Argentina projects are, Sal de Vida especially, they're not three years away from completion. I mean, Sal de Vida just over 15, 16 months away from completion. So, and it's quite well advanced, over 40%, 45% complete so far. I'd be surprised if we have major delays at Sal de Vida, as a result of any outside factor.

我認為，考慮到我們的阿根廷項目，尤其是 Sal de Vida 項目，它們距離完工不到三年。我的意思是，Sal de Vida 距離完工還有 15、16 個月的時間。所以，它已經取得了相當大的進展，到目前為止已經完成了 40% 到 45% 以上。如果由於任何外部因素導致 Sal de Vida 出現重大延誤，我會感到驚訝。

Great, thanks for that Paul. And then just a second one -- just around you highlighted that you expect to fill the recently expanded conversion facilities when you have that volume from Argentina. Given that Olaroz feeds Naraha but otherwise that volume is controlled by TTC, that largely then leaves you reliant on the Fenix and Sal de Vida projects unless you look to third party purchases.

太好了，謝謝你，保羅。然後還有第二個問題——剛才您強調說，當您從阿根廷獲得這麼多貨物時，您希望填滿最近擴大的轉換設施。鑑於 Olaroz 為 Naraha 供水，但除此之外，該水量由 TTC 控制，因此，除非您尋求第三方購買，否則您很大程度上只能依賴 Fenix 和 Sal de Vida 專案。

Even with those current next legs of expansions already in construction, does that give you enough carbonate volume to fill those? And if it did, do you actually expect that to be economic given the current pricing or would you sell spot carbonate instead?

即使目前下一步的擴建工程已經在建設中，這能給你足夠的碳酸鹽體積來填補這些缺口嗎？如果確實如此，您是否認為根據目前的價格，這會帶來經濟效益，或者您會出售現貨碳酸鹽？

So you raise a way more complex topic than I can probably do justice to in a soundbite type answer, but let me just say that the volumes that are in partnership with TTC, they are available to us to use in our broader network.

因此，您提出的話題比我可能用簡短的回答所能公正對待的要復雜得多，但我只想說，與 TTC 合作的這些卷，可供我們在更廣泛的網絡中使用。

They actually make a lot of sense to go into the hydroxide network because they are not battery-grade material and as I'm sure you can imagine, TTC's objectives, they have many, but some of them are to support their partners in Japan. Their partners in Japan don't need technical-grade carbonate, any battery-grade carbonate or lithium hydroxide.

它們進入氫氧化物網路實際上非常有意義，因為它們不是電池級材料，而且我相信你可以想像，TTC 的目標有很多，但其中一些是為了支持他們在日本的合作夥伴。他們在日本的合作夥伴不需要工業級碳酸鹽、任何電池級碳酸鹽或氫氧化鋰。

So we are very aligned with TTC about the best way to optimize the value of the carbonate that comes out of all the rows. So I'm quoting the premise of your question without -- won't be available if it's unlikely to be true.

因此，我們與 TTC 就優化各行碳酸鹽價值的最佳方法達成了一致。因此，我引用了你的問題的前提，如果它不太可能是真的，則將無法使用。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫（Kevin McCarthy），垂直研究夥伴。

Yes, thank you and good evening. Paul, last quarter I think you indicated that about two-thirds of your hydroxide volumes are covered by contracts with fixed floors. My question would be how does that two-thirds ratio change if it changes at all in the back half of this year and into 2025, recognizing that you're targeting 25% volume growth?

是的，謝謝你，晚上好。保羅，上個季度我記得你曾表示過，大約三分之二的氫氧化物產量是由固定底價合約涵蓋的。我的問題是，如果今年下半年和 2025 年這個三分之二的比例發生變化，並且考慮到您設定的目標是 25% 的銷量增長，那麼這個三分之二的比例會如何變化？

Yeah, so it clearly goes down later this year because the volumes that we have coming on are not under those contracts. So back-end of this year as the -- all the volume under those contracts has been served today. So, adding more volume is not going into those contracts. We do, though, have contract expansion next year. So some of that volume will, in fact then move into supporting growth in contracted volumes that are already in place. So the ratio next year will be slightly lower than two-thirds, but not massively lower than two-thirds.

是的，所以今年稍後產量顯然會下降，因為我們即將收到的產量不屬於這些合約的範圍。因此，今年年底這些合約的所有交易量都已在今天完成。因此，增加交易量並不會進入這些合約。不過，明年我們確實會延長合約。因此，其中一部分交易量實際上將用於支持已經簽訂的合約交易量的成長。因此明年的比例將略低於三分之二，但不會大幅低於三分之二。

And again, as the year goes on, don't forget because the nature of the volume we add them, they sort of ramp up as the year goes on. It's not a linear day one in 2025 with 25% more volume starting January the 1st. So as the year goes on slowly but surely, the ratio will start to shift to lower the contracted volumes in 2025.

而且，隨著時間的推移，不要忘記，由於我們添加的數量的性質，它們會隨著時間的推移而增加。2025 年的第一天並不是線性的，從 1 月 1 日開始交易量就會增加 25%。因此，隨著時間的推移，該比例將開始轉變，從而降低 2025 年的合約量。

Okay, that's helpful. And then secondly, maybe more of a clarification question around what has changed with regards to your project. I think I understand what you said about Galaxy. I did want to clarify, however, exactly how you're re-casing in Argentina. If I look at the bottom of Slide 7, you showed 25,000 kilotons there with a Part 1 in early '26 and a part 2 in late '27. Can you parse that out in terms of how much is coming on in early '26 versus 18 months following that and what exactly has changed with those lines, please?

好的，這很有幫助。其次，也許更需要澄清的是，您的專案發生了什麼變化。我想我明白了您所說的有關 Galaxy 的事情。不過，我確實想澄清一下你在阿根廷是如何重新佈置外殼的。如果我看第 7 張投影片的底部，你會看到那裡有 25,000 千噸，其中第 1 部分在 1926 年初，第 2 部分在 1927 年底。您能否分析一下 26 年初與隨後 18 個月的情況，以及這些線路究竟發生了哪些變化？

Yeah, we'll touch on this more in the Investor Day, but originally all of it would have come on in early 2026. These two projects are roughly give or take the same size. So in essence, half of it will come on in early '26 and the other half will come on in '27. So instead of 25,000 tons all coming on in early '26, it's between 10,000 and 15,000 -- come on in early 2026 and the other 10,000 to 15,000 come on in later, 2027.

是的，我們將在投資者日進一步討論這個問題，但最初這一切都會在 2026 年初實現。這兩個項目的規模大致相同。因此從本質上講，其中一半將在26年初實現，另一半將在27年實現。因此，25,000 噸並非全部在 26 年初投入，而是 10,000 至 15,000 噸，在 2026 年初投入，另外 10,000 至 15,000 噸將在 2027 年晚些時候投入。

We've run out of time for questions. This concludes our Q&A session. We'll now turn the conference back over to Dan Rosen for closing remarks.

我們已經沒有時間回答問題了。我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我們將會議交還給 Dan Rosen 作結束語。

Great. That's all the time we have for the call today, but we will be available on the call if you have any additional questions you may have. Thanks, everyone.

偉大的。這就是我們今天通話的全部時間，但如果你有任何其他問題，我們將繼續在通話中為你解答。謝謝大家。

This concludes the Arcadium Lithium second quarter 2024 earnings release conference call.

Arcadium Lithium 2024 年第二季財報發布電話會議到此結束。