Ally Financial Inc (ALLY) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2019 Ally Financial Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 2019 年第二季度 Ally Financial 收益電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Daniel Eller, Lead of Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係主管丹尼爾·埃勒 (Daniel Eller)。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. We appreciate everyone joining us to review Ally Financial's second quarter 2019 results. This morning, we have our CEO, Jeff Brown; and our CFO, Jenn LaClair, on the call to review our operating and financial results. We have time set aside after the prepared remarks for Q&A.

謝謝你，接線員。我們感謝大家與我們一起回顧 Ally Financial 2019 年第二季度的業績。今天早上，我們有我們的首席執行官傑夫·布朗；我們的首席財務官 Jenn LaClair 致電審查我們的運營和財務業績。在準備好發言後，我們留出時間進行問答。

You can find the presentation we will reference during the call on the Investor Relations website --- section of our website, ally.com. I'll direct your attention to Slide 2 of the presentation, where we have our forward-looking statements and risk factors. The contents of our call will be governed by this language.

您可以在我們網站 ally.com 的投資者關係網站部分找到我們將在電話會議期間參考的演示文稿。我將引導您注意演示文稿的幻燈片 2，其中有我們的前瞻性陳述和風險因素。我們通話的內容將受此語言管轄。

On Slide 3, we've included some of our GAAP and non-GAAP or core measures. These and other core measures are used by management and we believe they are useful to investors in assessing the company's operating performance and capital results. Please keep in mind these are supplemental to and not a substitute for U.S. GAAP measures. Supplemental slides at the end include full definitions and reconciliations.

在幻燈片 3 中，我們納入了一些 GAAP 和非 GAAP 或核心指標。這些和其他核心指標由管理層使用，我們相信它們對於投資者評估公司的經營業績和資本業績很有用。請記住，這些是對美國公認會計準則措施的補充，而不是替代。最後的補充幻燈片包括完整的定義和調節。

Now with that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Jeff Brown.

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官傑夫·布朗。

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Let's turn to Slide #4 and cover highlights from the quarter. We had another record-setting quarter across many metrics. Our performance reflects the consistent execution of the strategic path we've been on for several years.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的通話。讓我們轉向幻燈片 #4，介紹本季度的亮點。我們在許多指標上又創造了一個創紀錄的季度。我們的業績反映了我們多年來所走戰略道路的一貫執行。

All of our businesses shined this quarter, demonstrating impressive momentum and financial performance. Adjusted EPS of $0.97 increased 17% year-over-year, representing our highest result since becoming a public company. Core ROTCE of 12.4% remain on a solid trajectory. Revenues of $1.56 billion grew 6% year-over-year, and our risk profile remains strong. Underpinning our performance is a relentless focus on the 7 million plus customers and clients we are fortunate to serve.

本季度我們所有的業務都表現出色，展現出令人印象深刻的勢頭和財務業績。調整後每股收益為 0.97 美元，同比增長 17%，這是我們成為上市公司以來的最高業績。12.4% 的核心 ROTCE 保持在穩定的軌道上。收入為 15.6 億美元，同比增長 6%，我們的風險狀況依然強勁。我們業績的基礎是對我們有幸服務的超過 700 萬客戶的不懈關注。

We originated $9.7 billion of auto loans and leases in the quarter and decisioned a record 3.3 million applications, demonstrating the broad access we have through our extensive dealer network. We grew our dealer relationships this quarter to over 18,000 dealers, the 21st consecutive quarter where we've expanded our reach, with benefits extending well beyond volume generation. This affirms our position as the leading auto and insurance partner for dealers in the U.S., enhancing our opportunity to drive greater penetration across our full suite of products and services while also providing us with key data and insights in real time across the consumer lending space.

我們在本季度發放了 97 億美元的汽車貸款和租賃，並批准了創紀錄的 330 萬份申請，這表明我們通過廣泛的經銷商網絡擁有廣泛的渠道。本季度我們將經銷商關係擴大到超過 18,000 家經銷商，這是我們連續 21 個季度擴大我們的覆蓋範圍，帶來的好處遠遠超出了銷量的範圍。這證實了我們作為美國經銷商領先的汽車和保險合作夥伴的地位，增強了我們提高全套產品和服務滲透率的機會，同時也為我們提供了整個消費貸款領域的實時關鍵數據和見解。

Risk-adjusted margins increased during the quarter as new origination yields of 7.6% expanded 56 basis points year-over-year, resulting in another quarter of increasing portfolio yields and declining loss rates. New volume pricing remained strong even as benchmarks declined. Competitive behaviors across the space remained rational. Banks tightened auto lending standards for the 11th time in the past 12 quarters as consumer demand remained relatively steady. This reinforces our view of a balanced backdrop in the auto lending space.

本季度風險調整利潤率有所增加，新發行收益率為 7.6%，同比增長 56 個基點，導致投資組合收益率又一個季度上升，損失率下降。即使基準下降，新批量定價仍然強勁。整個領域的競爭行為仍然是理性的。由於消費者需求保持相對穩定，銀行在過去 12 個季度中第 11 次收緊汽車貸款標準。這強化了我們對汽車貸款領域平衡背景的看法。

Our credit trends remained solid as retail auto net charge-offs of 95 basis points declined 9 basis points compared to the prior year, highlighting the strength of our underwriting and credit risk management. We continue to see a strong backdrop for the U.S. consumer, including healthy employment levels, increasing wages and manageable debt service levels.

我們的信貸趨勢保持穩健，零售汽車淨沖銷額為 95 個基點，較上年下降 9 個基點，凸顯了我們承保和信用風險管理的實力。我們繼續看到美國消費者的強勁背景，包括健康的就業水平、工資上漲和可控的償債水平。

Turning to Deposits. We ended the quarter with over $116 billion in balances, an 18% increase in our Deposit portfolio year-over-year. We experienced our strongest second quarter ever in retail deposits at Ally Bank, where balances grew $3.2 billion. We're often asked what is the primary driver of success at Ally Bank. Our answer has remained the same since we launched 10 years ago, a relentless customer focus, anchored by industry-leading service levels, differentiated product offerings, a world-class digital and mobile experience and consistently competitive rates. Deposit customers of 1.9 million grew by 100,000 quarter-over-quarter, a 23% increase year-over-year or 350,000 new customers. A majority of inflows continue to be sourced from traditional banks, highlighting the ongoing trend among consumers who are seeking increased value and convenience from their bank.

轉向存款。截至本季度末，我們的餘額超過 1,160 億美元，我們的存款投資組合同比增長 18%。Ally Bank 零售存款第二季度創歷史新高，餘額增長 32 億美元。我們經常被問到 Ally Bank 成功的主要動力是什麼。自 10 年前推出以來，我們的答案一直保持不變，始終以客戶為中心，以行業領先的服務水平、差異化的產品、世界一流的數字和移動體驗以及始終如一的競爭性價格為基礎。存款客戶190萬戶，環比增加10萬戶，同比增長23%，新增客戶35萬戶。大部分資金流入仍然來自傳統銀行，凸顯了消費者尋求銀行增加價值和便利的持續趨勢。

These are the cornerstones of our nationwide, always on, digital bank, evidenced by Ally being named the Best Online Bank for the third consecutive year by Kiplinger's earlier this month. The direct deposit market represents around 10% of total retail deposits in the U.S. today and has grown by an average 15% per year since 2008. This represents a significant ongoing opportunity, something Ally is well positioned for as the largest online-only bank.

這些是我們全國范圍內始終在線的數字銀行的基石，本月早些時候，Ally 連續第三年被 Kiplinger 評為最佳在線銀行就證明了這一點。直接存款市場約佔當今美國零售存款總額的 10%，自 2008 年以來平均每年增長 15%。這代表著一個重大的持續機遇，Ally 作為最大的在線銀行處於有利位置。

From a deposit pricing perspective, we've been purposeful across our history to offer great rates that align with our customer value proposition. During the second quarter, we led the market taking pricing actions across several products, including a late June reduction to our liquid savings rate, which was largely in response to underlying benchmark activity. Following these actions, we've continued to see solid account openings and ongoing balance growth.

從存款定價的角度來看，我們一直致力於提供符合我們客戶價值主張的優惠利率。在第二季度，我們引領市場對多種產品採取了定價行動，包括 6 月下旬降低我們的流動儲蓄率，這主要是為了響應潛在的基準活動。在採取這些行動之後，我們繼續看到穩定的賬戶開設和持續的餘額增長。

Turning to our other businesses. Corporate Finance posted a solid quarter, expanding held for investment assets by 15% year-over-year. Ally Invest accounts grew to 336,000 during the second quarter, representing $7.1 billion of customer assets and trading accounts. And Ally Home direct-to-consumer originations of $600 million were the strongest levels since our 2016 entry into the space. We began the pilot with Better.com in July and are on schedule to expand the offering by year-end.

轉向我們的其他業務。企業融資季度表現強勁，投資資產持有量同比增長 15%。第二季度，Ally Invest 賬戶增長至 336,000 個，客戶資產和交易賬戶價值達 71 億美元。Ally Home 直接面向消費者的融資額達 6 億美元，是我們 2016 年進入該領域以來的最高水平。我們於 7 月份開始與 Better.com 進行試點，並按計劃在年底之前擴大產品範圍。

This morning, we are pleased to announce the acquisition of Health Credit Services, a point-of-sale payment provider whose digitally based, frictionless payment capability will enhance our product offerings at Ally Bank. With this acquisition, we are leveraging the growing desire of consumers to use alternative payment sources in a seamless manner. We expect the deal to close later this year. Remaining thoughtful and adaptable in the evolution of our offerings is a key strategic priority in taking Ally Bank to the next level and enhances our ability to serve the loyal, savvy Ally customers.

今天早上，我們很高興地宣布收購 Health Credit Services，這是一家銷售點支付提供商，其基於數字的無摩擦支付功能將增強我們在 Ally Bank 的產品供應。通過此次收購，我們正在利用消費者日益增長的無縫方式使用替代支付來源的願望。我們預計該交易將於今年晚些時候完成。在我們的產品發展中保持深思熟慮和適應性強，是將 Ally Bank 提升到新水平的關鍵戰略重點，並增強我們為忠誠、精明的 Ally 客戶提供服務的能力。

Turning to capital management. We wrapped up $1 billion in share buybacks on June 30. In total, we repurchased over 100 million shares since initiating the program in mid-2016. The $1.25 billion program we announced last quarter began in July. We've continued to buy back shares at attractive levels even as the GAAP-to-book value has narrowed.

轉向資本管理。我們於 6 月 30 日完成了 10 億美元的股票回購。自 2016 年中期啟動該計劃以來，我們總共回購了超過 1 億股股票。我們上季度宣布的 12.5 億美元計劃於 7 月開始。儘管公認會計準則賬面價值已收窄，但我們仍繼續以有吸引力的水平回購股票。

Let's turn to Slide #5 to review our key metrics for the quarter. All of these trends reinforce the meaningful and ongoing progress we've delivered over the past several years, with each metric at the highest level for us as a public company in Q2. In the upper left, adjusted EPS of $0.97 per share increased from $0.83 a year ago. Adjusted total net revenue of $1 -- $1.56 billion grew to $86 million (sic) [grew $86 million] year-over-year. Deposits on the bottom left expanded beyond $116 billion, an 18% increase compared to Q2 2018. And on the bottom right, tangible book value increased to $33.56 per share, up from just over $28 per share last year as we remain diligent in building long-term shareholder value.

讓我們轉向第 5 張幻燈片來回顧一下我們本季度的關鍵指標。所有這些趨勢都強化了我們在過去幾年中所取得的有意義和持續的進展，每個指標都達到了我們作為上市公司在第二季度的最高水平。左上方，調整後每股收益為 0.97 美元，高於一年前的 0.83 美元。調整後總淨收入為 1 - 15.6 億美元，同比增長至 8600 萬美元（原文如此）[增長 8600 萬美元]。左下角的存款規模擴大至 1160 億美元以上，較 2018 年第二季度增長 18%。在右下角，有形賬面價值從去年的每股略高於 28 美元增至每股 33.56 美元，因為我們仍然努力構建長期股東價值。

Our dominant, market-leading auto and bank business lines and growing adjacent product offerings positions us to continue executing both financially and operationally moving forward.

我們占主導地位、市場領先的汽車和銀行業務線以及不斷增長的相關產品使我們能夠繼續在財務和運營方面向前發展。

With that, I'll turn it to Jenn to take you through the detailed financial results.

接下來，我將請 Jenn 向您介紹詳細的財務結果。

Thank you, J.B., and good morning, everyone. Overall, Ally has continued to execute, driving strong operating and financial performance for the quarter. I'll start reviewing the detailed results beginning on Slide 6.

謝謝你，J.B.，大家早上好。總體而言，Ally 繼續執行，推動本季度強勁的運營和財務業績。我將從幻燈片 6 開始查看詳細結果。

Net financing revenue, excluding OID, of $1.164 billion increased $25 million linked quarter and $49 million year-over-year. The NII expansion was driven by balance sheet growth, particularly in capital-efficient assets; auto-optimization, where portfolio yields continued to rise as new origination pricing remained above 7.5%; and the ongoing liability restack, where deposits are replacing high-cost debt and funding asset growth. These factors affirm our expectations that net interest income will continue to grow in the second half of the year. Adjusted other revenue of $393 million was down $4 million quarter-over-quarter and up $37 million year-over-year, reflecting solid investment gains and revenue growth from insurance.

淨融資收入（不包括 OID）為 11.64 億美元，環比增加 2500 萬美元，同比增加 4900 萬美元。國家信息基礎設施擴張是由資產負債表增長推動的，特別是資本效率型資產；自動優化，隨著新發起定價保持在 7.5% 以上，投資組合收益率持續上升；以及正在進行的負債重組，其中存款正在取代高成本債務並為資產增長提供資金。這些因素都印證了我們對下半年淨利息收入繼續增長的預期。調整後其他收入為 3.93 億美元，環比下降 400 萬美元，同比增長 3700 萬美元，反映出穩健的投資收益和保險收入增長。

Provision expense of $177 million declined $105 million quarter-over-quarter, reflecting normal seasonal trends and increased $19 million year-over-year, mainly driven by higher asset levels. Within our auto portfolio, year-over-year net charge-off rates declined for the sixth consecutive quarter, demonstrating our disciplined approach to underwriting and collections and reflecting a healthy consumer and macroeconomic backdrop.

撥備支出為 1.77 億美元，環比下降 1.05 億美元，反映了正常的季節性趨勢，但同比增加 1,900 萬美元，主要是由於資產水平提高。在我們的汽車投資組合中，同比淨沖銷率連續第六個季度下降，這表明我們在承保和催收方面採取了嚴格的方法，並反映了健康的消費者和宏觀經濟背景。

Noninterest expense increased by $51 million linked quarter and $42 million compared to the prior year. Increases to the prior quarter reflect seasonally higher weather losses. On a year-over-year basis, weather losses increased by $18 million as losses in 2018 were relatively moderate.

非利息支出與上一季度相比增加了 5100 萬美元，與去年同期相比增加了 4200 萬美元。與上一季度相比的增加反映了季節性天氣損失的增加。與去年同期相比，天氣損失增加了 1,800 萬美元，因為 2018 年的損失相對較小。

Normalizing for weather, we drove positive operating leverage as revenue grew 6%, outpacing 3% expense growth. Higher costs were driven in part by volume and revenue-based activities, directly linked to the record operating results we delivered again in Q2. We remain focused on realizing near-term efficiency gains. We're making disciplined, long-term investments, including expanded consumer offerings in growth products and enhancements to digital, tech and brand capabilities. Going forward, you should expect continued prudent investment spend throughout 2019 and improved operating leverage over time.

隨著天氣正常化，我們推動了積極的運營槓桿，收入增長了 6%，超過了 3% 的費用增長。成本上升的部分原因是銷量和基於收入的活動，這與我們在第二季度再次交付的創紀錄的經營業績直接相關。我們仍然專注於實現短期效率提升。我們正在進行嚴格的長期投資，包括擴大增長型產品的消費者產品以及增強數字、技術和品牌能力。展望未來，您應該預計 2019 年投資支出將持續審慎，並且運營槓桿將隨著時間的推移而提高。

Turning to some of our key metrics. GAAP and adjusted EPS were $1.46 and $0.97 per share, respectively. We normalize results for a tax-related event, where we released approximately $200 million of valuation allowance associated with foreign credit set to expire in the coming years, which is accretive to capital levels and tangible book value. Core ROTCE was 12.4% and our adjusted efficiency ratio was 46.1%, improving 160 basis points year-over-year.

轉向我們的一些關鍵指標。GAAP 和調整後每股收益分別為 1.46 美元和 0.97 美元。我們對與稅務相關的事件的結果進行了標準化，我們釋放了大約 2 億美元的與外國信貸相關的估值津貼，這些津貼將於未來幾年到期，這會增加資本水平和有形賬面價值。核心 ROTCE 為 12.4%，調整後效率為 46.1%，同比提高 160 個基點。

The reported tax rate of negative 18.2% includes the VA release impacts. Our normalized tax rate of 22.5% is slightly below our 23% to 24% expected annual run rate.

所報告的負 18.2% 稅率包括 VA 釋放的影響。我們 22.5% 的標準化稅率略低於我們 23% 至 24% 的預期年運行率。

Moving to Slide 7, we'll cover balance sheet and net interest margin. 2019 has been marked by a persistent trend of declining benchmark rates, a flattening to inverted yield curve and shifting views on the Fed funds fast. Our results have been and will continue to be largely insulated from these dynamics due to our mutual rate positioning. We remain balanced and disciplined around interest rate risk, something we'll continue to prioritize as we assess repricing dynamics across those sides of our balance sheet.

轉到幻燈片 7，我們將介紹資產負債表和淨息差。2019 年的特點是基準利率持續下降、收益率曲線扁平化至倒掛，以及對聯邦基金的看法迅速轉變。由於我們的共同利率定位，我們的業績已經並將繼續在很大程度上不受這些動態的影響。我們在利率風險方面保持平衡和紀律，在我們評估資產負債表各方面的重新定價動態時，我們將繼續優先考慮這一點。

Average earning assets grew 7% year-over-year to nearly $175 billion, primarily in capital-efficient assets. Auto-related balances expanded by approximately $1 billion year-over-year and now represent 66% versus 70% of total earning assets compared to a year ago as we continue to diversify our asset composition.

平均盈利資產同比增長 7%，達到近 1,750 億美元，主要是資本效率型資產。隨著我們繼續實現資產構成多元化，汽車相關餘額同比增長約 10 億美元，目前佔總盈利資產的 66%，而去年同期則為 70%。

On the funding side, year-over-year average deposit growth of $16.9 billion financed earning asset growth of $11.2 billion, the roll-down of $3 billion in unsecured and $3.9 billion in secured funding. These dynamics have fueled top line growth over the past 5 years, keeping us on pace to achieve $5 billion of annual net financing revenue over time.

在融資方面，平均存款同比增長 169 億美元，為盈利資產增長 112 億美元，無擔保融資減少 30 億美元，有擔保融資減少 39 億美元。這些動態推動了過去 5 年的收入增長，使我們能夠隨著時間的推移實現 50 億美元的年度淨融資收入。

Net interest margin, excluding OID, of 2.67% remained relatively stable, declining 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter, driven by ongoing diversification and elevated premium amortization in our mortgage and investment security portfolios as benchmarks declined and prepayments increased.

淨息差（不包括 OID）為 2.67%，保持相對穩定，環比下降 2 個基點，這是由於我們的抵押貸款和投資安全投資組合的持續多元化以及隨著基準下降和預付款增加而導致的溢價攤銷上升。

The retail auto portfolio yield of 6.58% moved higher by 11 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 50 basis points year-over-year. The underlying 2 and 3-year benchmark rates have declined 80 to 90 basis points, while our new volume pricing has remained consistent in the mid-7% range throughout the first half of 2019, reflecting the continued strength of our market position.

零售汽車投資組合收益率為 6.58%，環比上升 11 個基點，同比上升 50 個基點。基礎的 2 年期和 3 年期基準利率已下降 80 至 90 個基點，而我們的新批量定價在 2019 年上半年一直保持在 7% 的中間範圍，這反映出我們的市場地位持續強勁。

We monitor rate trends and competitive dynamics and see a clear path for the retail portfolio yield to continue migrating toward new origination yields over time. The lease portfolio yield of 5.94% reflects higher gains linked quarter and year-over-year. You saw prices performed well during the second quarter, rebounding from a slight decline in Q1 and are flat year-to-date.

我們監控利率趨勢和競爭動態，並看到零售投資組合收益率隨著時間的推移繼續向新的原始收益率遷移的清晰路徑。租賃組合收益率為 5.94%，反映出季度和同比收益較高。您看到價格在第二季度表現良好，從第一季度的小幅下降中反彈，並且今年迄今持平。

Our 2019 outlook continues to incorporate a 3% to 5% decline as elevated off-lease supplies continue to increase and used vehicle sales typically moderate in the second half of the year. The commercial auto portfolio yield declined 5 basis points linked quarter and increased 55 basis points year-over-year, in line with 1-month LIBOR.

我們對 2019 年的展望繼續包括 3% 至 5% 的下降，因為租賃期滿供應量繼續增加，而且下半年二手車銷售通常會放緩。商用汽車投資組合收益率環比下降 5 個基點，同比上升 55 個基點，與 1 個月 LIBOR 一致。

Turning to funding. Deposits increased to 72% of overall funding, while unsecured balances declined to 8%. Through the end of the year, another $3 billion of high-cost debt is scheduled to mature with an average coupon of 5.8%. We accessed the wholesale funding markets during the quarter with a $759 deal, our first unsecured issuance in over 3 years, with strong investor participation, our tightest spread on a 5-year issuance and execution inside investment-grade levels.

轉向資金。存款佔總資金的比例增加至 72%，而無擔保餘額則下降至 8%。到今年年底，預計還有 30 億美元的高成本債務到期，平均票面利率為 5.8%。我們在本季度以 759 美元的交易進入批發融資市場，這是我們三年多來的首次無擔保發行，投資者的參與度很高，我們在 5 年期發行和執行中的利差處於投資級水平之內。

Moving forward, we expect to utilize unsecured markets for diversification and parent company liquidity, but overall unsecured balances will continue declining.

展望未來，我們預計將利用無擔保市場實現多元化和母公司流動性，但總體無擔保餘額將繼續下降。

On Slide 8, we'll look closer at some of our key deposit details. In the upper right, total deposits ended above $116 billion, reflecting $3.2 billion of retail growth, our strongest second quarter ever, while customer retention levels remained at 96%. During the second quarter last year, retail balances were essentially flat as we experienced elevated tax payment and alternative market-based investment outflows from our mass affluent, high net worth customers. While average per customer tax outflows were 5% to 10% higher year-over-year, net growth was driven by robust inflows from new and existing customers. This momentum is keeping us well on pace to achieve our 75% to 80% deposit funding objective.

在幻燈片 8 上，我們將仔細研究一些關鍵的存款細節。在右上角，總存款超過 1,160 億美元，反映了 32 億美元的零售增長，這是我們第二季度有史以來最強勁的增長，而客戶保留率仍保持在 96%。去年第二季度，零售餘額基本持平，因為我們的納稅額增加以及大眾富裕、高淨值客戶的另類市場投資流出。雖然每位客戶的平均稅收流出同比增加 5% 至 10%，但淨增長是由新客戶和現有客戶的強勁流入推動的。這種勢頭使我們能夠順利實現 75% 至 80% 存款融資目標。

In the bottom left, retail deposit rates increased 8 basis points linked quarter, driven by time deposit repricing, resulting in a cumulative portfolio beta of 48% since the beginning of the tightening cycle. As J.B. mentioned, we led the market in reducing offered rates on many of our products in Q2. And while we believe further opportunity exists as the Fed begins to ease, we will remain thoughtful on pricing actions.

在左下角，在定期存款重新定價的推動下，零售存款利率環比上升了 8 個基點，導致自緊縮週期開始以來累計投資組合貝塔值為 48%。正如 J.B. 提到的，我們在第二季度引領市場降低了許多產品的報價。儘管我們相信隨著美聯儲開始放鬆貨幣政策，存在更多機會，但我們仍將在定價行動上保持深思熟慮。

Looking back over the Fed tightening cycle, our cumulative percentage growth has significantly outpaced direct and traditional banks while beta has remained within our expectations. We added another 100,000 deposit customers, approaching 1.9 million total customers during Q2. Year-to-date, we have added 220,000 customers, essentially equal to full year 2018 growth, in half the time. Our loyal and growing customer base at Ally remain strategically important to our future as we expand our adjacent product offerings.

回顧美聯儲的緊縮週期，我們的累計百分比增長明顯超過了直接銀行和傳統銀行，而貝塔值仍處於我們的預期之內。第二季度，我們又增加了 10 萬存款客戶，客戶總數接近 190 萬。年初至今，我們已增加了 220,000 名客戶，基本上相當於 2018 年全年增長的一半。隨著我們擴展鄰近產品系列，Ally 忠誠且不斷增長的客戶群對我們的未來仍然具有重要的戰略意義。

Capital details are on Slide 9. CET1 of 9.5% increase linked quarter and year-over-year, reflecting earnings growth and the valuation allowance release I discussed earlier. We repurchased 7.8 million shares in the second quarter and we have reduced shares outstanding by nearly 19% since we began the buyback program 3 years ago. Earlier this month, we began repurchasing shares under our Board-approved buyback program of up to $1.25 billion. And as it pertains to CECL, we expect to disclose projections later this year. Given the opportunity to phase in capital impacts, we remain well positioned to incorporate the impact into our ongoing capital management processes.

資本細節見幻燈片 9。CET1 季度和同比增長 9.5%，反映了盈利增長和我之前討論的估值準備金發布。我們在第二季度回購了 780 萬股股票，自 3 年前開始回購計劃以來，我們已將流通股減少了近 19%。本月早些時候，我們開始根據董事會批准的高達 12.5 億美元的回購計劃回購股票。由於涉及 CECL，我們預計將在今年晚些時候披露預測。鑑於有機會分階段引入資本影響，我們仍然能夠將影響納入我們正在進行的資本管理流程。

Let's turn to Slide 10 to review asset quality details. Consolidated net charge-offs were 56 basis points this quarter, declining 1 basis point year-over-year as we remain focused on disciplined risk management. We have seen strong performance across our portfolios, particularly in retail auto.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 10 來回顧一下資產質量詳細信息。本季度綜合淨沖銷為 56 個基點，同比下降 1 個基點，因為我們仍然專注於嚴格的風險管理。我們的投資組合表現強勁，尤其是零售汽車領域。

In the top right, consolidated provision expense was $177 million, up $19 million compared to the prior year, driven by higher auto loan balances. Retail auto net charge-offs in the bottom right were solid at 95 basis points for the quarter, down 9 basis points year-over-year, the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year decline.

在右上角，由於汽車貸款餘額增加，綜合撥備費用為 1.77 億美元，比上年增加 1,900 萬美元。本季度右下角的零售汽車淨沖銷穩定在 95 個基點，同比下降 9 個基點，連續第六個季度同比下降。

In the bottom right, 30-plus and 60-plus delinquencies increased year-over-year by 12 and 7 basis points, respectively. As we've previously discussed, we expect year-over-year delinquencies to move higher throughout 2019, reflecting the increased mix and seasoning of our used portfolio. These trends also reflect actions implemented in our servicing and collection efforts, resulting in slightly higher delinquencies but improved flow-to-loss results reflected in the lower net charge-off rate. We continue to expect annual retail net charge-offs to remain on the low end of our 1.4% to 1.6% full year outlook.

在右下角，超過 30 個基點和超過 60 個基點的拖欠率分別同比增加 12 個和 7 個基點。正如我們之前所討論的，我們預計 2019 年全年拖欠率將上升，這反映出我們二手投資組合的組合和調味的增加。這些趨勢也反映了我們在服務和收款工作中採取的行動，導致拖欠率略有上升，但淨沖銷率較低，反映出流量損失結果有所改善。我們繼續預計年度零售淨沖銷額將保持在全年預期 1.4% 至 1.6% 的低端。

Our balance sheet is well positioned, comprised primarily of fully secured assets that have demonstrated high priority in the payment waterfall over many cycles.

我們的資產負債表狀況良好，主要由完全擔保的資產組成，這些資產在多個週期的支付瀑布中表現出高度優先性。

On Slide 11, auto finance pretax income of $459 million increased $130 million versus prior quarter and $77 million versus prior year. The ongoing optimization of our auto franchise is evident across our operating and financial results. Net financing revenue grew year-over-year, driven by retail auto asset growth and higher-yielding originated volumes replacing lower-yielding amortizing vintages.

在幻燈片 11 中，汽車金融稅前收入為 4.59 億美元，比上一季度增加了 1.3 億美元，比去年同期增加了 7700 萬美元。我們的汽車特許經營權的持續優化在我們的運營和財務業績中顯而易見。在零售汽車資產增長和高收益原始數量取代低收益攤銷年份的推動下，淨融資收入同比增長。

We continue to grow our dealer base and increase dealer engagement across our comprehensive suite of financing and insurance offerings. We have relationships with over 90% of franchise dealers in the U.S. who continue to retain and grow their businesses with us. We decisioned a record 3.3 million applications in Q2, bringing the year-to-date total to just under 6.5 million, a 9% year-over-year increase. The broad reach we have with dealers and increased application flow drives our ability to generate volume, maintain disciplined underwriting and grow strong risk-adjusted margins.

我們繼續擴大我們的經銷商基礎，並提高經銷商在我們全面的融資和保險產品組合中的參與度。我們與美國 90% 以上的特許經銷商建立了合作關係，他們繼續與我們保持和發展業務。我們在第二季度受理了創紀錄的 330 萬份申請，使年初至今的總數接近 650 萬份，同比增長 9%。我們與經銷商的廣泛接觸和不斷增加的申請流量推動了我們產生銷量、維持嚴格承保和增長強勁的風險調整利潤的能力。

In the bottom right, estimated retail new origination yields increased 56 basis points year-over-year, and our retail portfolio yield increased by 50 basis points, while our retail auto net charge-offs declined 9 basis points.

在右下角，估計零售新發源收益率同比增長 56 個基點，我們的零售投資組合收益率增長 50 個基點，而我們的零售汽車淨沖銷下降 9 個基點。

Turning to Slide 12. We booked $9.7 billion of loan and lease volume in Q2, an increase of nearly $600 million linked quarter and $165 million versus the prior year. Growth Channel originations of 50% during the quarter represent an all-time high and a meaningful milestone, considering 85% of our origination were sourced from 2 channels just 5 years ago. Used originations were 54% in volume, while non-prime originations remained stable at 12%. These metrics provide a clear indication of the success we've had evolving our business model despite a competitive and dynamic market environment.

轉到幻燈片 12。我們第二季度的貸款和租賃量為 97 億美元，與上年相比增加了近 6 億美元，環比增加了 1.65 億美元。考慮到 5 年前我們 85% 的渠道來源來自 2 個渠道，本季度渠道來源增長 50% 代表了歷史最高水平，也是一個有意義的里程碑。使用過的原產地數量佔 54%，而非主要原產地保持穩定在 12%。這些指標清楚地表明了我們在競爭激烈且充滿活力的市場環境中發展業務模式所取得的成功。

In the bottom left, consumer assets grew $2 billion year-over-year to $81.2 billion, primarily from retail auto balances as lease balances remained relatively flat. Average commercial balances in the bottom right declined quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year to $34.8 billion due to normalizing dealer inventories.

在左下角，消費者資產同比增長 20 億美元，達到 812 億美元，主要來自零售汽車餘額，因為租賃餘額保持相對平穩。由於經銷商庫存正常化，右下角的平均商業餘額環比和同比均下降至 348 億美元。

On Slide 13, Insurance reported a core pretax loss of $4 million, reflecting seasonally elevated weather losses. Included in the results this quarter were impacts related to elevated tornado activity, including the largest tornado event in our history. Our teammates worked diligently to assist impacted dealers and customers across the Midwest during this active weather season. Overall, weather results were in line with expectations but elevated compared to 2018 when losses were below historic norms.

在幻燈片 13 中，保險公司報告核心稅前虧損為 400 萬美元，反映出季節性天氣損失增加。本季度的結果包括與龍捲風活動增加相關的影響，包括我們歷史上最大的龍捲風事件。在這個活躍的天氣季節，我們的團隊成員努力工作，為中西部地區受影響的經銷商和客戶提供幫助。總體而言，天氣結果符合預期，但與 2018 年相比有所上升，當時損失低於歷史正常水平。

Earned revenues increased $22 million year-over-year, reflecting increased written premiums over the past several quarters. Written premiums of $314 million were $36 million higher year-over-year, driven by growth across our products, including vehicle service contracts and dealer inventory offerings. We continue to see solid, new business activity due to our ongoing efforts to improve returns, grow dealers and increase dealer penetration.

賺取收入同比增加 2200 萬美元，反映出過去幾個季度承保保費的增加。承保保費為 3.14 億美元，同比增加 3,600 萬美元，這得益於我們產品（包括車輛服務合同和經銷商庫存產品）的增長。由於我們不斷努力提高回報、發展經銷商和提高經銷商滲透率，我們繼續看到穩健的新業務活動。

Slide 14 has our Corporate Finance segment result. Core pretax income of $48 million increased $39 million linked quarter and declined $10 million year-over-year. Compared to the prior year, HFI assets grew 15%, primarily through the contributions from new verticals over the past 2 years, leading to higher net financing revenues. NII growth was partly offset by elevated syndication fees in the prior year period that did not repeat. Overall portfolio performance remained strong and in line with our expectations. We have increased our focus on collateral-based lending, which represented around half of our new originations in Q2. We expect the year-over-year portfolio growth rate to remain in the mid- to high teens throughout the remainder of 2019 as we navigate competitive dynamics and continue to focus on disciplined risk management in the space.

第 14 張幻燈片顯示了我們的企業融資部門結果。核心稅前收入為 4800 萬美元，環比增加 3900 萬美元，同比下降 1000 萬美元。與上年相比，HFI 資產增長了 15%，主要是通過過去兩年新垂直行業的貢獻，導致淨融資收入更高。NII 的增長部分被去年同期銀團費用的增加所抵消，但這種情況並未重複。整體投資組合表現依然強勁，符合我們的預期。我們加大了對基於抵押品的貸款的關注，這佔第二季度新增貸款的一半左右。我們預計，隨著我們應對競爭動態並繼續專注於該領域嚴格的風險管理，在 2019 年剩餘時間內，投資組合的同比增長率將保持在中高位。

On Slide 15, mortgage pretax income of $14 million this quarter was relatively flat versus prior quarter and prior year's period. We originated approximately $600 million of direct-to-consumer loans, the highest level since launching Ally Home, and over half of our DTC customers come from existing depositors. We're confident in our ability to continue sourcing a steady flow of mortgage volume from the existing customer base in addition to offering a compelling product to the broader marketplace.

在幻燈片 15 中，本季度抵押貸款稅前收入為 1,400 萬美元，與上一季度和去年同期相比相對持平。我們發放了約 6 億美元的直接面向消費者貸款，這是推出 Ally Home 以來的最高水平，超過一半的 DTC 客戶來自現有儲戶。除了向更廣泛的市場提供引人注目的產品外，我們對繼續從現有客戶群獲得穩定的抵押貸款量的能力充滿信心。

Our partnership with Better is progressing well. We launched a pilot in Texas earlier this month and expect to have broader rollout by the end of the year. This digital frictionless model will drive a 40-plus percent reduction to our existing cost per loan, with longer-term improvements driving us towards best-in-class performance.

我們與 Better 的合作進展順利。本月早些時候，我們在德克薩斯州啟動了一項試點，預計到今年年底將進行更廣泛的推廣。這種數字化無摩擦模型將使我們現有的每筆貸款成本降低 40% 以上，長期的改進將推動我們實現一流的業績。

As I hand it back to J.B., I'll close by saying we remain focused on delivering for our customers and building long-term value for our shareholders. Our momentum this quarter and through the first half of 2019 keeps us well on track to achieve our full year outlook, which we provided earlier this year. Our consistent execution over the past several years results from our strong customer value, our leading market position, disciplined risk management and our focus on driving sustainable long-term value for our shareholders, which we've delivered again this quarter through our operating metrics, earnings, results -- return profile and adjusted tangible book value per share of $33.56, up 20% year-over-year.

當我把它交還給 J.B. 時，我最後要說的是，我們仍然專注於為客戶提供服務並為股東創造長期價值。我們本季度和 2019 年上半年的勢頭使我們能夠順利實現今年早些時候提供的全年展望。過去幾年我們始終如一的執行力源於我們強大的客戶價值、領先的市場地位、嚴格的風險管理以及我​​們致力於為股東創造可持續的長期價值，本季度我們通過我們的運營指標再次實現了這一目標，收益、業績——回報概況和調整後的每股有形賬面價值為 33.56 美元，同比增長 20%。

And with that, I'll hand it back to J.B.

有了這個，我會把它交還給 J.B.

Thank you, Jenn. Hard to add much commentary to Jenn's close there. Very strong, very proud and appreciative of the results that the team delivered this quarter.

謝謝你，珍。很難對 Jenn 的結尾添加太多評論。非常強大，對團隊本季度取得的成果感到非常自豪和讚賞。

But I would say Slide #16 reiterates our priorities for 2019, where each of the key themes is consistent with what we've previously discussed. Our comprehensive, adaptive and digitally focused consumer and commercial offerings and our market-leading dominant franchises position us well for the long term.

但我想說的是，第 16 張幻燈片重申了我們 2019 年的優先事項，其中每個關鍵主題都與我們之前討論的內容一致。我們全面、適應性強、以數字為中心的消費者和商業產品以及市場領先的主導特許經營權使我們在長期內處於有利地位。

Across our 8,500 Ally associates, we continue to focus on leveraging expertise, being mindful of our history as we build a stronger company for the future. Central to our culture is our mantra to Do It Right, which applies to every interaction with our customers, within the communities we serve and on behalf of our shareholders. I'm proud of the progress we've realized and of applying this principle to everything we do and I'm encouraged around the prospects we have moving forward from here.

在我們的 8,500 名 Ally 員工中，我們繼續專注於利用專業知識，在為未來打造一家更強大的公司的過程中牢記我們的歷史。我們文化的核心是“正確行事”的口號，它適用於我們與客戶、我們服務的社區內以及代表我們的股東的每一次互動。我為我們所取得的進步以及將這一原則應用到我們所做的一切事情中感到自豪，並且我對我們從這裡向前邁進的前景感到鼓舞。

And with that, Daniel, back to you and time for Q&A.

丹尼爾，現在回到你的問答時間。

Yes. Thanks, J.B. So as we head into Q&A, we would ask participants to limit yourself to one question and one additional follow-up. Operator, if you will begin the Q&A session.

是的。謝謝，J.B。因此，當我們進入問答階段時，我們會要求參與者將自己限制在一個問題和一個額外的後續問題上。接線員，您是否將開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from Moshe Orenbuch from Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Moshe Orenbuch。

Jenn, I appreciate the commentary on origination yields and the competitive environment. I'm just wondering, I mean obviously you had very strong originations this quarter. So could you kind of maybe flesh that out a little bit? And maybe talk a little bit about how that -- you think that could develop into the third quarter in terms of the level of originations and the ability to get -- to maintain your yield in the face of the current environment?

Jenn，我很欣賞對原始收益率和競爭環境的評論。我只是想知道，我的意思是顯然您本季度有非常強大的起源。那麼你能稍微充實一下嗎？也許可以談談如何在當前環境下維持產量——您認為在起源水平和獲取能力方面可能會發展到第三季度？

Yes. Sure. Thank you for the question. Yes. I mean throughout the first half of 2019, we've had consistent origination flow at over 7.5% yield, and that's in the context of a very volatile rate environment. In fact, our underlying benchmark rates have come down 80 to 90 basis points. So we're really pleased with the continued strength of our market position. We're #1 in retail lending. We're continuing to find a lot of opportunities to originate strong flows at the right pricing.

是的。當然。感謝你的提問。是的。我的意思是，在整個 2019 年上半年，我們的初始流量始終保持在 7.5% 以上的收益率，而且這是在利率環境非常波動的背景下進行的。事實上，我們的基本基準利率已經下降了 80 到 90 個基點。因此，我們對市場地位的持續增強感到非常滿意。我們在零售貸款領域排名第一。我們正在繼續尋找大量機會，以合適的價格產生強勁的流量。

In particular, in the used segment, you look at -- from a consumer perspective, the price of a new vehicle versus the price of a used vehicle has kind of the largest gap it's had in over a decade. So we continue to see strong consumer demand for used, continues to be very profitable for our dealers and it's profitable for us as well.

特別是在二手車領域，從消費者的角度來看，新車的價格與二手車的價格之間存在十多年來最大的差距。因此，我們繼續看到消費者對二手貨的強勁需求，這對我們的經銷商來說仍然是非常有利可圖的，對我們來說也是有利可圖的。

So we aren't seeing any of that slow down for us. Even out of the gate here in Q3, as we've come through July, continuing to see really strong originations at good yields and returns. Now keep in mind, as we go through the back half of 2019, we do have some seasonality. First and second quarter tend to be our heavy used seasons. And then Q3, and especially into Q4, we tend to have more of a new vehicle season. So we would expect yields for full year to be in that 7% to 7.5% range. And certainly, like I said, we're really pleased with the dynamics so far this year. Now keep in mind that should migrate our overall portfolio yield up. 2017, we were at 5.80%. 2018, we're at 6.40% in terms of our retail portfolio yield. We're at 6.58% now and we will see the continue to climb up towards that 7% over time.

所以我們並沒有看到任何放緩的情況。即使在第三季度，正如我們已經經歷了 7 月份一樣，我們仍然看到真正強勁的創始和良好的收益率和回報。現在請記住，當我們進入 2019 年下半年時，我們確實有一些季節性。第一和第二季度往往是我們大量使用的季節。然後是第三季度，尤其是第四季度，我們往往會有更多的新車季節。因此，我們預計全年收益率將在 7% 至 7.5% 的範圍內。當然，正如我所說，我們對今年迄今為止的動態感到非常滿意。現在請記住，這應該會提高我們的整體投資組合收益率。2017 年，我們的增長率為 5.80%。2018 年，我們的零售投資組合收益率為 6.40%。我們現在的比例為 6.58%，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到該比例繼續攀升至 7%。

So hopefully, that gives you a bit of color. I think we're continuing to see very good progress here and, on the asset side, should continue to see yield expansion.

希望這能給你帶來一些色彩。我認為我們在這方面繼續看到非常好的進展，並且在資產方面，應該會繼續看到收益率擴張。

Great. And maybe J.B., you mentioned the payments acquisition. Could you kind of flesh that out a little bit and tell us what -- how you envision the bank offering kind of developing over the next couple of years and what other things you might be thinking in that respect?

偉大的。也許 J.B.，你提到了支付收購。您能否具體說明一下這一點，並告訴我們您對銀行產品在未來幾年內的發展有何設想，以及您在這方面可能會考慮哪些其他事情？

Yes. So Moshe, thanks for the question. I think we look at this as acquiring an important capability to have well within Ally. I think obviously the existing business has been largely focused in the health care sector. And I think as we think about applicability, it's broader than just that when we think of our other lines of businesses in other areas. But clearly, consumers today are looking for alternative payment forms. We've been interested in the unsecured space, and this was an ability to acquire a really nice platform at a relatively inexpensive price, and we'll seek to grow it from there.

是的。摩西，謝謝你的提問。我認為我們認為這是獲得盟友的一項重要能力。我認為顯然現有業務主要集中在醫療保健領域。我認為，當我們考慮適用性時，它比我們考慮其他領域的其他業務線時更廣泛。但顯然，當今的消費者正在尋找替代的支付方式。我們一直對不安全的領域感興趣，這是一種以相對便宜的價格獲得一個非常好的平台的能力，我們將尋求從那裡發展它。

It doesn't come with any balance sheet. Think about this as really a capability acquisition, and we look forward to scaling it up from here.

它沒有任何資產負債表。將其視為真正的能力獲取，我們期待著從這裡擴大規模。

Our next question is from Arren Cyganovich from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Arren Cyganovich。

I was just wondering if you could talk about the -- on Slide 21, you have your rate shock and ramp. It's still showing somewhat asset sensitive, which is a little bit surprising. Do you see any potential for a benefit as the deposits come down? And maybe just talk about what's included in that -- in those shock tables.

我只是想知道您是否可以談談幻燈片 21 上的利率衝擊和斜坡。它仍然表現出一定的資產敏感性，這有點令人驚訝。隨著存款的減少，您認為有任何潛在的好處嗎？也許只是談談那些衝擊表中包含的內容。

Yes. Sure. And as we've been discussing for some time now, we're relatively neutral from an interest rate risk position. I mean you'll see in that table some slight asset sensitivity. And keep in mind, we already have 4 cuts built into that forward, so it's a pretty aggressive forecast there. But overall, we are managing the balance sheet to be relatively neutral to interest rate risk. You see that in terms of when we cut our plan a year ago, we were expecting 2 hikes. Now we've got 3, maybe even 4 eases in our forecast. And in spite of that, our NIM has remained relatively stable and we're still expecting strong NII growth throughout the back half of this year.

是的。當然。正如我們已經討論了一段時間的那樣，我們對利率風險的立場相對中立。我的意思是，您會在該表中看到一些輕微的資產敏感性。請記住，我們已經對該前鋒進行了 4 次削減，因此這是一個相當激進的預測。但總體而言，我們正在管理資產負債表，使其對利率風險相對中性。你可以看到，當我們一年前削減計劃時，我們預計會有兩次加息。現在我們的預測有 3 次甚至 4 次緩解。儘管如此，我們的淨息差仍保持相對穩定，並且我們仍預計今年下半年淨利息收入將強勁增長。

Now specifically on deposits, certainly, we've led the market in terms of repricing deposits down ahead of any Fed action. Should we see Fed rate cuts in July or beyond, we would expect to have an opportunity to continue to rationalize pricing. Now it's not just an automatic reduction. We do take in mind our appetite -- keep in mind our appetite for deposits as well as the competitive landscape, but we feel like we are very well positioned to continue to optimize deposit pricing going forward.

當然，現在特別是在存款方面，我們在美聯儲采取任何行動之前對存款進行重新定價方面已經引領市場。如果我們看到美聯儲在 7 月或更長時間降息，我們預計將有機會繼續合理化定價。現在它不僅僅是自動減少。我們確實考慮到了我們的胃口——記住我們對存款的胃口以及競爭格局，但我們覺得我們處於非常有利的位置，可以繼續優化未來的存款定價。

And just as a follow-up, I was looking, I guess, at Slide 8, the retail deposit customer growth. It really seems like it's kind of expanded pretty rapidly over the past few quarters. Is there anything you're doing differently there? Anything -- you've got a new marketing strategy? Or what's driving that, kind of the increase that you've had over the past few quarters?

作為後續行動，我想我正在關注幻燈片 8，即零售存款客戶的增長。在過去的幾個季度裡，它確實似乎擴張得相當快。你在那裡做的事情有什麼不同嗎？有什麼——你有新的營銷策略嗎？或者是什麼推動了這一增長，比如過去幾個季度的增長？

Yes. And I would say no large pivots strategically, I think. Part of our success -- a main reason for our success is the consistency that we've had in that space in terms of offering value to our customers over the last decade.

是的。我認為，我認為在戰略上沒有重大轉變。我們成功的一部分——我們成功的一個主要原因是我們在過去十年中在該領域為客戶提供價值方面所保持的一致性。

We do see over historic data that once yields get above 2%, you typically wake customers up to the value. And this year, as we've been above 2%, industry growth rate has increased about 1% or so. We've seen some elevated growth from an account perspective.

我們確實從歷史數據中看到，一旦收益率達到 2% 以上，通常就會讓客戶意識到其價值。而今年，隨著我們已經在2%以上，行業增速大約提高了1%左右。從帳戶角度來看，我們看到了一些較高的增長。

And we're always investing in technology and brand, and I think you will see improvements in both of those this year as well as continuously. So it's never one thing. We think we're well positioned from a price perspective relative to kind of the 5 -- $4 trillion, $5 trillion, getting paid less than 50 basis points, but also continuing that investment in industry-leading technology and brand.

我們一直在技術和品牌方面進行投資，我認為今年以及未來您都會看到這兩個方面的改進。所以這從來都不是一回事。我們認為，從價格角度來看，我們相對於 5 萬億美元、5 萬億美元處於有利地位，獲得的報酬不到 50 個基點，但也繼續對行業領先的技術和品牌進行投資。

Our next question is from Bill Carcache from Nomura.

我們的下一個問題來自野村證券的比爾·卡卡什。

Jenn, can you give some additional color around how high used originations can grow as a percentage of the total? And then perhaps how much of the pricing tailwind is coming from the growing mix shift towards the more profitable used business?

Jenn，您能否就使用的來源在總數中所佔的百分比增長多少提供一些額外的說明？那麼，也許有多少定價順風來自於日益增長的向利潤更高的二手業務的組合轉變？

Yes. Sure. Thank you for the question. It's a good one in terms of that percent used. We never went out with a target in terms of what mix we were driving towards. And you dial back a couple years ago, we were maybe 30% used. Today, we're 50% to 55% used. I think what's so unique about our model is that we can adapt to changes in the industry dynamics. And as I mentioned just a minute ago, used is a really strong market right now. It's 2.5x the size of new. We see strong demand there from a customer perspective, strong dealer demand. And so to the extent there's opportunities there and we can originate solid flows at the rate risk-adjusted yields, we'll continue to grow in that space. But we don't have any particular target around that.

是的。當然。感謝你的提問。就使用百分比而言，這是一個不錯的選擇。我們從來沒有設定過要實現的組合目標。如果你回撥幾年前，我們可能使用了 30%。今天，我們的使用率為 50% 到 55%。我認為我們的模式的獨特之處在於我們可以適應行業動態的變化。正如我剛才提到的，二手市場現在非常強勁。它的尺寸是新尺寸的 2.5 倍。從客戶的角度來看，我們看到了強勁的需求，經銷商的強勁需求。因此，只要那裡存在機會，並且我們可以按照風險調整後的收益率產生穩定的流動，我們將繼續在該領域增長。但我們對此沒有任何特定目標。

Relative to yield expansion, we've priced in kind of 100% of the underlying benchmark rate increases at this time and we've continued to maintain that even in spite of rates coming down. And I'd say that's largely just reflective of our strong market position. I wouldn't say that's largely because of used, although the mix shift toward used is certainly helping the vast majority of our yield expansion just because the entire business is working well and we've been able to garner the right pricing across new, used and all the different nameplates that we originate against.

相對於收益率擴張，我們目前已經定價了 100% 的基本基準利率上漲，並且即使利率下降，我們仍繼續維持這一水平。我想說，這很大程度上反映了我們強大的市場地位。我不會說這主要是因為二手貨，儘管向二手貨的組合轉變肯定有助於我們絕大多數的產量擴張，因為整個業務運作良好，而且我們已經能夠在新的、二手的產品中獲得正確的定價以及我們最初針對的所有不同銘牌。

Got it. That's helpful. And separately, I have one for J.B. We've been engaging with investors in some healthy bull-bear debate discussions on Ally this quarter and I was hoping you could comment on what we're hearing from both sides. In one camp, there -- the bulls that argue you guys are growing tangible book value at an impressive roughly 10% pace, and your tangible book value per share is growing even faster than that, in part because you trade below tangible book and your buybacks are accretive.

知道了。這很有幫助。另外，我還為 J.B 準備了一份。本季度我們一直在與投資者就 Ally 進行一些健康的牛熊辯論討論，我希望您能對我們從雙方聽到的情況發表評論。在一個陣營中，多頭認為你們的有形賬面價值正在以令人印象深刻的大約 10% 的速度增長，而你們每股有形賬面價值的增長速度甚至比這更快，部分原因是你們的交易低於有形賬面價值，而且你們的股價也低於有形賬面價值。回購具有增值性。

And then in the other camp, the bears are arguing that you guys generate the lowest ROTCEs among financials, you're not able to cover your cost of capital and that you shouldn't be a stand-alone company but belong inside of a bank with a better funding profile that would augment your returns. Could you speak to those points?

然後在另一個陣營中，看空者認為你們的 ROTCE 是金融行業中最低的，你們無法覆蓋資本成本，而且你們不應該成為一家獨立的公司，而應該屬於銀行內部擁有更好的資金狀況，可以增加您的回報。您能談談這幾點嗎？

Yes. I mean I think the bear case is pretty extreme, in our minds. I mean when I look across what we're delivering today and new assets that are coming on balance sheet, we are more than exceeding our cost of capital. I mean this has been largely a restructuring story for the past several years, where we've kept our heads down and working extremely hard to improve financial performance, knock off some of the old legacy, regulatory issues that kind of hindered performance. And now you're starting to see the benefits of the past couple of years. We haven't had these constraints on us.

是的。我的意思是，我認為在我們看來，熊市的情況相當極端。我的意思是，當我審視我們今天交付的產品以及資產負債表上即將出現的新資產時，我們遠遠超出了我們的資本成本。我的意思是，這在過去幾年裡很大程度上是一個重組故事，我們一直保持低調，極其努力地提高財務業績，消除一些舊的遺留問題，以及阻礙業績的監管問題。現在您開始看到過去幾年的好處。我們還沒有受到這些限制。

So do I see this institution belonging inside of somebody else? Absolutely not. I think we've got one of the strongest brands in business today. I'd say that even extends beyond banking. We've planted a very strong flag in being a leader in the world of digital banking and utilizing a great brand, great technologies to grow customers, to grow deposit flows. And I think that positions us exceptionally strong.

那麼我是否認為這個機構屬於其他人的內部？絕對不。我認為我們擁有當今商業領域最強大的品牌之一。我想說這甚至超出了銀行業的範圍。我們已經樹立了一個非常強大的旗幟，成為數字銀行世界的領導者，並利用偉大的品牌、偉大的技術來發展客戶、增加存款流量。我認為這使我們異常強大。

I think, Jenn, obviously covered a number of the points around when we look at where new assets are coming on, there's an embedded tailwind. I mean I think, look, relative to new assets that are coming on today versus portfolio yield, it's a 100 basis points difference. And through time, that's going to migrate up. So while you're sitting here listening to bank after bank talk about contraction in asset yields, talk about substantial contraction in NIM, you're not seeing it at Ally. You're seeing us actually flat with an outlook of seeing that increase.

我認為，Jenn，當我們研究新資產的出現時，顯然涵蓋了許多要點，有一個嵌入式的順風車。我的意思是，我認為，相對於今天推出的新資產與投資組合收益率，存在 100 個基點的差異。隨著時間的推移，它將會向上遷移。因此，當你坐在這裡聽一家又一家銀行談論資產收益率收縮、談論淨息差大幅收縮時，你在 Ally 卻看不到這一點。你看到我們實際上持平，但前景會看到增長。

So I think the bear case is way overdone. I think we've built a phenomenal institution here. We continue to be very thoughtful in the way we deploy capital. We are very prudent. Any time we get asked the question about do you guys think towards M&A in the future, it starts with a focus on, first and foremost, anything we have to do has to be right and compelling for our customer. And number two, we have to believe that it can deliver a long-term appropriate return for our shareholders. And so for us, that's the focus today.

所以我認為熊市論太過分了。我認為我們在這裡建立了一個非凡的機構。我們在部署資本的方式上繼續深思熟慮。我們非常謹慎。每當我們被問及你們對未來併購有何看法時，我們首先要關注的是，我們要做的任何事情都必須是正確的，並且對我們的客戶有吸引力。第二，我們必須相信它能為我們的股東帶來長期適當的回報。對我們來說，這就是今天的焦點。

I think on the bull case, I'm all about it. I mean Jenn closed her comments with that stat on 20% increase in tangible book value per share relative to a year ago. We have been very disciplined in guarding our shareholders' capital, and that will be the philosophy going forward. So we're all built up. We feel great about the direction of the company. We feel great about customer growth, and we feel really content about the way this place can generate sustained return through time.

我認為在牛市的情況下，我全力以赴。我的意思是 Jenn 以每股有形賬面價值較一年前增長 20% 的統計數據結束了她的評論。我們在保護股東資本方面一直非常自律，這將是我們未來的理念。所以我們都建立起來了。我們對公司的發展方向感覺很好。我們對客戶的增長感到非常高興，並且我們對這個地方能夠隨著時間的推移產生持續回報的方式感到非常滿意。

So for us, as a management team, I think it's foot on the gas and keep growing in a very thoughtful, prudent manner.

因此，對於我們來說，作為一個管理團隊，我認為我們正在加速前進，並以一種非常深思熟慮、謹慎的方式不斷發展。

Our next question is from Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Betsy, we can't hear you. Are you on mute?

貝特西，我們聽不到你的聲音。你靜音了嗎？

Pardon me, Betsy, your line is open. Pardon me, Betsy, please check your mute button.

請原諒，貝特西，您的線路已接通。對不起，貝特西，請檢查你的靜音按鈕。

Let's move to the next queue. We'll get Betsy back in there.

讓我們轉到下一個隊列。我們會讓貝特西回到那裡。

Our next question is from Kevin Barker from Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Kevin Barker。

So I just wanted to follow-up on the Health Credit Solutions acquisition. Could you help us understand the -- what you're thinking on the capabilities of this platform and how you see it developing, whether it's products and whether you look at it as an originated sell model or originated that you put on balance sheet and just how you're thinking about that acquisition going forward.

所以我只想跟進 Health Credit Solutions 的收購。您能否幫助我們了解您對這個平台功能的看法以及您如何看待它的發展，無論是產品，還是將其視為原始銷售模式或將其納入資產負債表的原始模式您如何看待該收購的進展。

Sure, Kevin. Thank you for the question. I mean from a capability perspective, this is a point-of-sale lending capability. We see very high utility value for our customers as they're looking for efficient financing for purchases. And it's one of the highest-growth consumer asset classes across the industry right now. It's growing at 18% to 20-plus percent. And so we see this as offering a really great value proposition to consumers.

當然，凱文。感謝你的提問。我的意思是從能力的角度來看，這是一種銷售點貸款能力。我們認為客戶正在尋求高效的採購融資，因此他們具有非常高的實用價值。它是目前整個行業增長最快的消費資產類別之一。其增長率為 18% 至 20% 以上。因此，我們認為這為消費者提供了真正巨大的價值主張。

For us, it gets us a new asset class. We intend to originate and invest and hold these on our balance sheet. And this is accretive to ROA, accretive to ROE. Typically, very high FICO customer in like 725 over 700 range, and it's also short duration. So we see this as just -- not only a terrific capability for our customer but also an opportunity for us to grow our balance sheet in an ROE-accretive manner.

對我們來說，它為我們帶來了一個新的資產類別。我們打算發起、投資並將其保留在我們的資產負債表上。這會增加 ROA，增加 ROE。通常情況下，FICO 非常高的客戶在 725 到 700 的範圍內，而且持續時間也很短。因此，我們認為這不僅是我們客戶的絕佳能力，也是我們以增加股本回報率的方式擴大資產負債表的機會。

Great. Can you size out the potential revenue opportunity or EBITDA? Or even maybe just like loan balances you expect to be generated off of this platform maybe in the next year or over the next 5 years, how you're thinking about it? I'm just trying to understand this versus the auto business and how it fits in overall from a risk-adjusted perspective.

偉大的。您能否估算出潛在的收入機會或 EBITDA？或者甚至就像您期望在明年或未來 5 年內從該平台產生的貸款餘額一樣，您是如何考慮的？我只是想從風險調整的角度來理解這一點與汽車業務以及它如何適應整體。

Yes. No. Kevin, I appreciate the question. I mean we are very early. We haven't even closed the transaction yet. And as J.B. mentioned, we're going to be very thoughtful in terms of getting the operating platform right, making sure we deploy capital and we can get accretive ROA and ROE. And so at this point, I'd say ROE ranges in the 20-plus percent relative to where we are today. It's accretive. I think more to come in terms of the specific financial forecast for you just as we -- as soon as we close and have more details in terms of the ramp-up. But appreciate the question.

是的。不。凱文，我很欣賞這個問題。我的意思是我們還很早。我們甚至還沒有結束交易。正如 J.B. 提到的，我們將非常深思熟慮地打造正確的運營平台，確保我們部署資本並獲得增值的 ROA 和 ROE。因此，在這一點上，我想說相對於我們今天的情況，ROE 範圍在 20% 以上。這是有增值作用的。我認為，一旦我們結束並獲得更多關於產能提升的細節，我們就會為您提供更多具體的財務預測。但感謝這個問題。

Our next question is from Eric Wasserstrom from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Eric Wasserstrom。

Maybe just to follow up on Bill's question for a moment. I think the performance over the past several quarters has really done a lot to undermine the bear argument. So I imagine that, that argument is going to morph today into a discussion about peak earnings and peak profitability, with the view being credit obviously continues to improve. Yields also continue to improve. You're pretty efficient on capital. You're generating very strong operating leverage. And therefore, this is as good as it gets. So how would you respond to that particular view, which, I imagine, will probably be the emerging discussion after this print?

也許只是暫時跟進比爾的問題。我認為過去幾個季度的表現確實在很大程度上削弱了熊市論調。因此，我想，今天的爭論將演變成關於峰值收益和峰值盈利能力的討論，因為信貸顯然會繼續改善。產量也持續提高。你的資本效率相當高。您正在產生非常強大的運營槓桿。因此，這已經是最好的了。那麼，您會如何回應這種特定的觀點，我想這可能會成為本文發布後出現的討論？

Yes. And Eric, we appreciate the bullish summary that you just provided, but a couple of things that I'd point out. I mean you talked about assets, but asset yield expansion, even in spite of rates, is going to continue over the next 2 years as we migrate our auto portfolio yield up over 7% to new origination yields. And so we've got this natural tailwind in terms of yield expansion. On the deposit side, we've got a large liquid OSA book. And as we see some potential eases on the horizon, we should eventually be able to reprice down the liability side of the balance sheet as well. And that's not even considering the kind of $3 billion plus we have in unsecured that's rolling down. So the way that we see pricing on the asset and the liability side, we think, positions us very well over the next 2-plus years here.

是的。埃里克，我們感謝您剛才提供的樂觀總結，但我想指出一些事情。我的意思是，您談到了資產，但即使不考慮利率，資產收益率的擴張也將在未來兩年內持續，因為我們將汽車投資組合收益率提高超過 7% 至新的原始收益率。因此，我們在產量擴張方面獲得了自然的推動力。在存款方面，我們有大量的流動性 OSA 賬簿。當我們看到一些潛在的寬鬆政策即將出現時，我們最終也應該能夠重新定價降低資產負債表的負債部分。這甚至還沒有考慮到我們所擁有的 30 億美元以上的無擔保資金正在不斷減少。因此，我們認為，我們對資產和負債方面的定價方式使我們在未來兩年多的時間里處於非常有利的位置。

And then just from a strategic position, we are a digital bank, and we think that position us extremely well for growth across all of our businesses. If you think about trends across customers, how they purchase financial products, how they interact with their banks, we are unencumbered by complicated and expensive infrastructure, brick-and-mortar, and kind of the social issues attached to migrating towards the digital platform. So we feel like we're in a great place, not only from a financial perspective but also a strategic perspective, being predominantly digital. And as we continue to be able to grow out capital-light businesses, we've invested in Ally Invest, which is ROE accretive, we're seeing great momentum there. We've got on the auto side a SmartAuction platform that's fee-generating, and we have some growth opportunities there as well. And then continuing to build out capabilities like HCS that are ultimately accretive to ROA and ROE. So we feel really, really good about our positioning on all fronts.

從戰略地位來看，我們是一家數字銀行，我們認為這使我們在所有業務的增長方面處於非常有利的位置。如果你考慮一下客戶的趨勢，他們如何購買金融產品，他們如何與銀行互動，我們就不會受到復雜且昂貴的基礎設施、實體以及遷移到數字平台所帶來的社會問題的阻礙。因此，我們覺得我們處於一個很好的位置，不僅從財務角度來看，而且從戰略角度來看，主要是數字化。隨著我們繼續發展輕資本業務，我們投資了 Ally Invest，它可以增加股本回報率，我們看到那裡的強勁勢頭。我們在汽車方面有一個收費的 SmartAuction 平台，我們在那裡也有一些增長機會。然後繼續構建 HCS 等能力，最終提高 ROA 和 ROE。所以我們對我們在各個方面的定位感到非常非常好。

And if I can just have one follow-up. The next phase of your capital return plan will obviously include the transition to the CECL accounting standard. So should we think about this upcoming pace of capital return as effectively a sustainable one? Or is this really one that takes some of these recent benefits, particularly around the margin expansion? And -- but that the future may look somewhat different than this?

如果我能跟進一次就好了。您的資本回報計劃的下一階段顯然將包括向 CECL 會計準則的過渡。那麼，我們是否應該將即將到來的資本回報步伐視為有效的可持續回報？或者這真的會帶來一些最近的好處，特別是在利潤率擴張方面？而且——但未來可能會與現在有所不同？

Yes. It's a question we get frequently. I mean the way that we're looking at CECL is it will have a material impact and we'll be coming out with more details around the range of impacts shortly. But if you think about the capital implications, we can phase it in, in over 3 years, which is essentially kind of a 25% over a 4-year phase-in. And due to the phase-in, we think we'll be able to absorb that kind of in our normal capital allocation, normal capital management processes. We're not expecting any major -- any strategic changes to how we're thinking about capital deployment at this time. We think it's absorbable.

是的。這是我們經常遇到的問題。我的意思是，我們看待 CECL 的方式是它將產生重大影響，我們將很快就影響範圍提供更多細節。但如果考慮到資本影響，我們可以在 3 年多的時間內逐步實施，這基本上相當於 4 年逐步實施的 25%。由於逐步實施，我們認為我們將能夠在正常的資本配置、正常的資本管理流程中吸收這種影響。我們預計目前我們對資本部署的思考方式不會發生任何重大的戰略變化。我們認為它是可吸收的。

Our next question is from Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

We got you this time.

這次我們找到你了

Yes. Sounds good.

是的。聽起來不錯。

Okay. Second time is a charm. All right. So a couple questions here. One on the loan growth. Generated really nice loan growth this quarter. Wanted to understand if that pace is something that you think you can continue to fund. And do you think it would come from kind of pulling down on the securities portfolio? It seemed more of a mix shift back into auto. Or is -- are you suggesting that perhaps the target capital ratio has room to come down a little bit?

好的。第二次是一個魅力。好的。這裡有幾個問題。一是貸款增長。本季度產生了非常好的貸款增長。想了解您是否認為您可以繼續資助這一步伐。您認為這會來自於證券投資組合的下降嗎？這似乎更像是一種回歸汽車的混合轉變。或者您是否建議目標資本比率還有稍微下降的空間？

Yes. I mean, first, in terms of loan growth, Betsy -- and appreciate the question. I mean we're always going to be opportunistic in how we deploy capital across our balance sheet. And I've mentioned a couple of times this morning, we are seeing good origination flows and yields and returns on the auto side. And so to the extent that'll continue, we'll be growing in retail auto. Continuing to grow in mortgage as we talked about great progress there. And Corporate Finance continues kind of steady as we go at that 15%, 20% growth rate.

是的。我的意思是，首先，就貸款增長而言，貝特西，我很欣賞這個問題。我的意思是，我們在如何在資產負債表上配置資本時總是會採取機會主義的態度。今天早上我已經提到過幾次，我們看到汽車方面良好的原始流動、收益率和回報。因此，只要這種情況持續下去，我們的零售汽車業務就會不斷增長。當我們談論那裡的巨大進展時，抵押貸款繼續增長。隨著我們以 15%、20% 的增長率前進，企業融資繼續保持穩定。

So no changes there. I mean I think with respect to securities, it'll depend a bit on the rate curve, both the level and the shape of the yield curve. And right now, we're seeing opportunities to grow at accretive yields. But should that change, we'll be opportunistic and kind of slow down and reallocate to the loan side.

所以那裡沒有變化。我的意思是，我認為就證券而言，這將在一定程度上取決於利率曲線，包括收益率曲線的水平和形狀。現在，我們看到了以增值方式增長的機會。但如果這種情況發生變化，我們將投機取巧，放慢腳步，重新分配給貸款方。

Over time, we do want to kind of close the gap on our securities portfolio. We think we're a bit underinvested there. And we'll look to migrate kind of percent of our portfolio from 17% to 20%, but we're not in any rush to do that. Like I said, we'll be opportunistic.

隨著時間的推移，我們確實希望縮小我們的證券投資組合的差距。我們認為我們在那裡的投資有點不足。我們會考慮將投資組合的一定比例從 17% 遷移到 20%，但我們並不急於這樣做。就像我說的，我們會抓住機會。

And then on our 9% target around CET1, there hasn't been any major changes to our strategic positioning. We're not seeing any reason why we should change that 9%. I will caveat that around a lot of potential changes on the horizon from a regulatory perspective, we've got the SCB, enhanced prudential standards. We should see some final rules coming out in the near future. And should that change our positioning, vis-à-vis that 9%, that's a question that's outstanding. But as we sit here today, we are really comfortable with that 9% CET1 target.

然後就我們在CET1左右的9%目標而言，我們的戰略定位沒有任何重大變化。我們看不出有任何理由應該改變這 9%。我要警告的是，從監管角度來看，圍繞即將出現的許多潛在變化，我們已經有了SCB，增強了審慎標準。我們應該會在不久的將來看到一些最終規則的出台。如果這會改變我們相對於那 9% 的定位，這是一個懸而未決的問題。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對 9% CET1 的目標感到非常滿意。

Got it. All right. So if the tailoring rule goes through as currently proposed, does that impact how you think about capital?

知道了。好的。那麼，如果定制規則按照目前的提議通過，這會影響您對資本的看法嗎？

I mean, ultimately, it's a question up to our Board of Directors. The SCB does suggest that we build our capital target from the bottom up, that we don't have to hold quite as much, in particular, in a stress around that 9 -- 8, 9 quarters of our capital actions. And so that could suggest that we have a lower starting point as we're establishing our target and goal framework. But ultimately, it's a question up to our Board and it will be taken in the context of our strategic priorities and our risk profile going forward.

我的意思是，最終，這是我們董事會的問題。SCB確實建議我們自下而上地建立我們的資本目標，我們不必持有那麼多，特別是在我們的資本行動的9、8、9個季度的壓力下。因此，這可能表明我們在建立目標和目標框架時起點較低。但最終，這是我們董事會的問題，並將根據我們的戰略重點和未來的風險狀況來考慮。

Okay. And then when we think about credit, credit obviously doing extremely well, not only on the recoveries that you're getting but also on delinquencies, and I guess a two-part question. One is what do you think is going on with the consumer that the roll rates are so low and the delinquencies are staying down where they are? And then the second question is how do you think about the outlook for net charge-offs for the full year feels like? The 1.4% to 1.6% range is extraordinarily conservative.

好的。然後，當我們考慮信貸時，信貸顯然表現得非常好，不僅在您獲得的回收方面，而且在拖欠方面，我想這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。一是您認為消費者的情況如何，滾動率如此之低，拖欠率也保持在較低水平？第二個問題是您如何看待全年淨沖銷的前景？1.4%到1.6%的範圍是非常保守的。

Yes. So first, on the consumer, we are still seeing really healthy consumer in the data, and that's -- when you look at consumer demand for autos, it's come down a bit in terms of new vehicle sales. But used continues to be really robust, and you see that reflected in the used vehicle prices that we've seen throughout Q2 here. So on the demand side, it continues to be positive, showing up in our flows, showing up in our yield. And we're seeing really healthy consumer on that front.

是的。首先，在消費者方面，我們仍然在數據中看到真正健康的消費者，那就是——當你觀察消費者對汽車的需求時，就會發現新車銷量略有下降。但二手車仍然非常強勁，你可以看到這一點反映在我們在第二季度看到的二手車價格中。因此，在需求方面，它仍然是積極的，體現在我們的流量和收益率中。我們在這方面看到了真正健康的消費者。

From a credit perspective, the flow to loss has a lot to do with the mix shift toward used, where we tend to see higher frequency but lower severity. And so a bit of that is unrelated to kind of consumer health. It's more of a mix impact. And related to that, we've talked for some time now just around some of our collection strategies that have pushed out repo timing and have ballooned delinquencies a bit, but we don't see that flow to loss. And we would expect that to continue, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks.

從信用的角度來看，損失的流向與混合轉向使用有很大關係，我們往往會看到頻率更高但嚴重程度較低。因此，其中一部分與消費者健康無關。這更多的是混合影響。與此相關的是，我們已經就一些催收策略進行了一段時間的討論，這些策略推遲了回購時間，並導致拖欠率略有增加，但我們沒有看到這種趨勢會導致損失。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。

On net charge-offs, certainly, really pleased with first quarter and second quarter results. As we look to the back half of the year, and we've got this 3% to 5% decline in terms of used vehicle prices, and that could materialize. I mean if you just look at off-lease supply of vehicles, it will be at the highest point it's been in the history of the data. And so we could see a supply side pressure on used vehicle prices, which could take up our net charge-offs in the back half of the year. And that's what's embedded in our forecast today.

當然，在淨沖銷方面，我們對第一季度和第二季度的業績非常滿意。展望今年下半年，二手車價格將下降 3% 至 5%，這可能會成為現實。我的意思是，如果你只看車輛的租賃結束供應量，它將處於數據歷史上的最高點。因此，我們可能會看到二手車價格面臨供應方壓力，這可能會佔用我們今年下半年的淨沖銷額。這就是我們今天的預測中所包含的內容。

And keep in mind, used vehicle prices can change pretty rapidly. You take the first quarter, the government shutdown, we saw almost an immediate reduction in terms of used vehicle prices. It's come back quickly, but used vehicle pricing can change fairly quickly. And the supply and demand dynamics around off-lease vehicles would suggest that we would have some pressure in the back half of this year.

請記住，二手車價格變化得相當快。以第一季度為例，政府關閉，我們看到二手車價格幾乎立即下降。它很快就會恢復，但二手車價格可能會很快發生變化。租賃車輛的供需動態表明我們今年下半年將面臨一些壓力。

Our next question is from Ryan Nash from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Ryan Nash。

Maybe just a follow-up on one of Betsy's questions regarding credit. So you've had this target out there for 1.4% to 1.6% charge-offs. You came in below it last year. It seems like you have the potential to come below it this year. I guess as you look out over an 18- to 24-month period, what will we need to see happen in the economy for you to get either into that range or even potentially towards the high end of that range? Because it seems like credit is -- continues to drift away from it so I'd be curious on your views on that.

也許只是貝特西關於信用的問題之一的後續。所以你已經設定了 1.4% 到 1.6% 沖銷的目標。去年你的排名低於它。看起來今年你有可能低於它。我想，當您展望 18 至 24 個月期間時，我們需要看到經濟中發生什麼，才能進入該範圍，甚至可能達到該範圍的高端？因為信用似乎正在繼續偏離它，所以我很好奇你對此的看法。

Yes. I mean the 1.4% to 1.6% range is out there because that's what we originate to. If you look at -- and we've got this metric called NAALR. We are, right now, originating within that range and so we would expect over time for that range to materialize in our financials.

是的。我的意思是 1.4% 到 1.6% 的範圍是存在的，因為這就是我們的初衷。如果你看一下——我們有一個稱為 NAALR 的指標。目前，我們的起點是在這個範圍內，因此我們預計隨著時間的推移，這個範圍將在我們的財務中實現。

Now there's a lot of impact around the health of the consumer. Currently, it looks really great, but we're at a 50-year low in terms of unemployment. And a lot of questions around wage growth. It still looks pretty solid. But on an inflation-adjusted, maybe not as great as you would expect. So I mean there could be some pressures in terms of the health of the consumer. I'd say that's number one.

現在，消費者的健康受到了很大的影響。目前看起來確實很棒，但就失業率而言，我們正處於 50 年來的最低點。還有很多關於工資增長的問題。看起來還是很紮實的。但經通脹調整後，可能沒有你想像的那麼好。所以我的意思是消費者的健康可能會面臨一些壓力。我想說這是第一。

Number two, we've implemented a lot of strategies to kind of curb that flow to loss. We'll continue to do that, but the pace of the strategic deployment could flow a bit now that we've implemented many of those. And then I think the big question is really around used vehicle pricing and kind of addressed that already with Betsy's question, but that could shift on us. And we are expecting that 3% to 5% decline. We've been expecting that for some time. And it hasn't quite materialized yet, but I think that's a reality we need to be aware of.

第二，我們實施了很多策略來遏制損失。我們將繼續這樣做，但既然我們已經實施了其中許多戰略部署，那麼戰略部署的步伐可能會加快一些。然後我認為最大的問題實際上是關於二手車定價，貝特西的問題已經解決了這個問題，但這可能會轉移到我們身上。我們預計下降 3% 至 5%。我們對此已經期待了一段時間了。它還沒有完全實現，但我認為這是我們需要意識到的現實。

Got it. And then if I could ask some -- as my follow-up question on repricing dynamics. So you mentioned that pricing on the retail auto yield side is holding in well at around 7.60% despite the fact the benchmark interest rates have gone down a lot. When asset yields rose over time, we saw the benchmarks movement and the repricing happened on a lag. I guess can you talk about how you are thinking about that on the way down?

知道了。然後我是否可以問一些問題——作為我關於重新定價動態的後續問題。您提到，儘管基準利率已經大幅下降，但零售汽車收益率方面的定價仍保持在 7.60% 左右。當資產收益率隨著時間的推移而上升時，我們看到基準的變動和重新定價的發生是滯後的。我想你能談談你在下降過程中是如何思考這個問題的嗎？

And then as part of that question, you've already been proactive in terms of lowering deposit pricing yet you've continued to have really good growth. How do you think about the relative trade-off between continuing to grow deposits at a really robust pace and rationalizing price paid given that you guys are a market leader in the space?

作為這個問題的一部分，您已經積極主動地降低存款定價，但仍然保持了良好的增長。鑑於你們是該領域的市場領導者，您如何看待繼續以真正強勁的速度增加存款與合理支付價格之間的相對權衡？

Yes. Sure. And you kind of described it correctly, Ryan. We did reprice on a lag. And what we're seeing on the downs here is that it's also on a lag. I think we've been really pleased in terms of our ability to maintain pricing. And you really have to look back to historic data because while prices are high relative to where they've been a couple years ago, relative to historic yields on autos, we're still at a fairly low point. And so consumers are able to absorb the yields that we're continuing to put in the market. It hasn't curbed demand at all.

是的。當然。你的描述是正確的，瑞安。我們確實根據滯後重新定價。我們在這裡看到的情況是，它也存在滯後。我認為我們對維持定價的能力感到非常滿意。你確實必須回顧歷史數據，因為雖然價格相對於幾年前的水平較高，但相對於汽車的歷史收益率，我們仍處於相當低的水平。因此，消費者能夠吸收我們繼續投放市場的收益。它根本沒有抑制需求。

So from a consumer perspective, we're not seeing a whole lot of pressure on yields. I think the question, and we're monitoring it incredibly closely, is what else happens in terms of the underlying benchmark rates as well as what happens with our competitive positioning. We continue to feel bullish there, in particular playing in the used space, which is 2.5x the new space. There -- it tends to be much larger. It's growing faster and it's much more fragmented. So we're feeling good about it. But to your point, we are mindful of where benchmarks are going as well as where the competitive landscape is going.

因此，從消費者的角度來看，我們並沒有看到收益率面臨很大的壓力。我認為，我們正在密切關注的問題是，就基本基準利率而言，還會發生什麼，以及我們的競爭定位會發生什麼。我們繼續對該領域感到樂觀，特別是在已用空間中進行遊戲，該空間是新空間的 2.5 倍。在那裡——它往往要大得多。它的增長速度更快，而且更加分散。所以我們對此感覺良好。但就您而言，我們關注基準的走向以及競爭格局的走向。

On the deposit side, we're fairly rapidly approaching our target funding rate of 75% to 80%. We're today at 72%. A year ago, we were at 64%. And so the flows have been incredibly strong. We're -- our third record quarter consecutively. And so we'll be mindful of our appetite for deposits. We'll be mindful of continuing to provide value to our customers. That's incredibly important to us, but we do think we're very well positioned to be able to continue to optimize deposit costs, in particular, if there's some eases down the road.

在存款方面，我們正在相當快地接近 75% 至 80% 的目標融資率。今天我們的進度是 72%。一年前，我們的比例為 64%。因此，資金流動非常強勁。我們連續第三個季度創紀錄。因此，我們將留意我們對存款的胃口。我們將注意繼續為客戶提供價值。這對我們來說非常重要，但我們確實認為我們處於非常有利的位置，能夠繼續優化存款成本，特別是如果未來出現一些寬鬆的話。

Our next question is from Kevin St. Pierre from KSP Research.

我們的下一個問題來自凱文·聖。來自 KSP Research 的皮埃爾。

J.B., you mentioned the other banks and how when we look at results that are going on and we just see widespread net interest margin pressure, and then you think about what their commentary has been around if the forward curve plays out and incremental margin pressure. And now as we look at the quarter you just posted, you had the lowest increase quarter-to-quarter in deposit costs in about 6 or 7 quarters. And your asset yields, your origination yields holding up and portfolio yield migrating towards the origination yield. Can we make the case that if we do -- if the forward curve does play out, that while other banks continue to see accelerating margin pressure, your margin will trend up?

J.B.，您提到了其他銀行，以及當我們看到正在發生的結果時，我們看到了廣泛的淨息差壓力，然後您會想到如果遠期曲線發揮作用以及增量邊際壓力，他們的評論是什麼。現在，當我們查看您剛剛發布的季度時，您的存款成本季度環比增幅是大約六七個季度以來最低的。你的資產收益率、你的初始收益率保持不變，投資組合收益率向初始收益率遷移。我們是否可以證明，如果我們這樣做——如果遠期曲線確實發揮作用，那麼當其他銀行繼續面臨不斷加劇的利潤壓力時，您的利潤將會呈上升趨勢？

Yes. I mean I'll give you the simple response, Kevin, and then Jenn can elaborate. But I think we would both say yes due to some of those embedded tailwinds. I mean, again, where we're originating today on the auto side relative to where the portfolio yield is and the natural migration that's going to occur there is going to lead to continued expansion on the asset side. Now obviously, there's certain nuances that we face around our mortgage business and accelerated premium amortization through that refinancing activity, but the lion's share of our asset base still is in the form of auto and still has these natural tailwinds. So I think Jenn and I both think about it very much that you can see continued expansion. And Jenn, maybe you'd talk about the deposit and liability side.

是的。我的意思是，凱文，我會給你簡單的答复，然後詹恩可以詳細說明。但我認為，由於其中一些內在的有利因素，我們都會說“是”。我的意思是，我們今天在汽車方面的起點相對於投資組合收益率的水平，而那裡將要發生的自然遷移將導致資產方面的持續擴張。現在顯然，我們的抵押貸款業務面臨著某些細微差別，並通過再融資活動加速了保費攤銷，但我們資產基礎的最大份額仍然是汽車形式，並且仍然有這些自然的推動力。所以我認為 Jenn 和我都非常想你可以看到持續的擴張。Jenn，也許你會談論存款和負債方面。

Yes. I mean, Kevin, it's the right question to be asking. And we're one of the few banks linked quarter that saw asset yields up. But as we think about our interest rate positioning, we aim to be fairly neutral, especially in the near term here and so we'll continue to grow as our balance sheet grows.

是的。我的意思是，凱文，這是正確的問題。我們是少數幾個資產收益率上升的銀行相關季度之一。但當我們考慮我們的利率定位時，我們的目標是相當中性，尤其是在短期內，因此我們將隨著資產負債表的增長而繼續增長。

Underneath that, and I think what your question is really getting at, is on the asset side, we've got embedded tailwinds. And on the liability side, we've got embedded tailwinds as we see the Fed coming down. And so over time, certainly, yield curve-dependent. But over time, based on the pricing dynamics on both sides of the balance sheet, you could see expansion.

在這之下，我認為你的問題真正要表達的是在資產方面，我們有嵌入式的順風車。在負債方面，隨著我們看到美聯儲的降息，我們已經獲得了潛在的有利因素。因此，隨著時間的推移，當然，收益率曲線依賴。但隨著時間的推移，根據資產負債表雙方的定價動態，你可能會看到擴張。

Keep in mind, we are still looking to diversify our asset mix. And so as we -- as J.B. mentioned, as we continue to grow mortgage and continue to grow securities, that will have some pressure on NIM, but we'll be accretive to ROE and continue to grow our net interest income.

請記住，我們仍在尋求資產組合多元化。因此，正如 J.B. 提到的，隨著我們繼續增加抵押貸款和繼續增加證券，這將對淨息差產生一些壓力，但我們將增加淨資產收益率並繼續增加我們的淨利息收入。

Great. Maybe as a follow-up to that, as we think about perhaps diversifying into some higher-yielding categories, maybe talk about your initial success with the credit card partnership and uptick on that product and maybe long-term plans for potentially bringing those loans on balance sheet.

偉大的。也許作為後續行動，當我們考慮多元化進入一些更高收益的類別時，也許可以談談您在信用卡合作夥伴關係方面的初步成功以及該產品的增長，以及可能將這些貸款帶入的長期計劃資產負債表。

Yes. So Kevin, I guess the unsecured space holistically continues to be of interest for us. So obviously, you see part of that as a step-in and what we're doing with HCS today. I guess the other thing we didn't talk about as a core is our partnership with TD on the credit card side has ended. That agreement wrapped up and really did not -- ultimately, did not end up achieving the objectives we had or probably objectives that TD had given their credit risk appetite. Obviously, it was their credit underwriting, their credit decisioning. So the total portfolio size, I think, was under $100 million that was accumulated. So it's not a massive customer impact for us, but we basically wound down that relationship.

是的。所以凱文，我想整體上不安全的空間仍然是我們感興趣的。顯然，您將其中的一部分視為介入以及我們今天在 HCS 上所做的事情。我想我們沒有核心討論的另一件事是我們與道明銀行在信用卡方面的合作關係已經結束。該協議最終沒有實現我們的目標，也沒有實現道明銀行為其信用風險偏好設定的目標。顯然，這是他們的信用承保，他們的信用決策。因此，我認為累計的投資組合總規模不到 1 億美元。因此，這對我們來說並不是一個巨大的客戶影響，但我們基本上結束了這種關係。

Having said that, I still think unsecured is the core consumer product. You see what we're doing with HCS as a step into that space where we -- as Jenn covered, where we would actually balance sheet that product as well. And so we continue to look for avenues. And obviously, if the stock continues to perform, you can have a little bit more opportunistic view on growth. And we haven't maybe been afforded that over the history. But given the performance we've seen, we'll keep those 2 objectives, which Jenn and I talked about, was anything we do, is it right for the customer; and number two, can it deliver an appropriate long-term return for our shareholders.

話雖如此，我仍然認為無擔保是核心消費產品。你會看到我們在 HCS 上所做的事情，作為進入這個領域的一步，正如 Jenn 所提到的，我們實際上也會對該產品進行資產負債表。因此，我們繼續尋找途徑。顯然，如果股票繼續表現，你可以對增長有更多的機會主義看法。歷史上我們可能沒有得到過這樣的機會。但考慮到我們所看到的表現，我們將保留 Jenn 和我談到的這兩個目標，即我們所做的任何事情，是否適合客戶；第二，它能否為我們的股東帶來適當的長期回報。

Thank you. At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Daniel Eller for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前，我沒有再提出任何問題。我想將電話轉回給丹尼爾·埃勒（Daniel Eller），讓他發表結束語。

Great. Thank you. And again, appreciate everyone joining us this morning. I would remind participants if you have additional questions, feel free to reach out to Investor Relations. Thanks, and have a great morning.

偉大的。謝謝。再次感謝今天早上加入我們的大家。我想提醒參與者，如果您還有其他問題，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部。謝謝，祝你早上愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程序到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。