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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to ALLETE Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Call. Today's call is being recorded.
美好的一天,歡迎參加 ALLETE 2023 年第四季財務業績電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。
Certain statements contained in this conference call that are not descriptions of historical facts are forward-looking statements, such as terms defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because such statements can include risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
本次電話會議中包含的某些並非歷史事實描述的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述,例如1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的術語。可能與這些陳述有重大差異此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示。
Factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in filings made by the company with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Many of the factors that will determine the company's future results are beyond the ability of management to control or predict.
可能導致結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異的因素包括但不限於公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中討論的因素。許多決定公司未來業績的因素超出了管理層的控製或預測能力。
Listeners should not put undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect management reviews only as of the date hereof. The company undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements or to make any other forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
聽眾不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述,這些陳述僅反映截至本新聞稿發布之日的管理層評論。本公司不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述或做出任何其他前瞻性陳述的義務。
Welcome to ALLETE's conference call announcing fourth quarter 2023 financial results. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Bethany Owen, Chair, President and CEO. You may begin.
歡迎參加 ALLETE 宣布 2023 年第四季財務業績的電話會議。 (操作員說明)謹此提醒,此通話正在錄音。我現在想將電話轉給董事長、總裁兼執行長貝瑟尼歐文 (Bethany Owen)。你可以開始了。
Bethany M. Owen - Chair, CEO & President
Bethany M. Owen - Chair, CEO & President
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. With me today are ALLETE's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steve Morris; Jeff Scissons, ALLETE's Corporate Development and ALLETE Clean Energy Strategy Officer; and Frank Frederickson, Minnesota Power, Vice President of Customer Experience and Engineering Services.
謝謝。大家早安,感謝您加入我們。 今天與我在一起的有 ALLETE 的高級副總裁兼財務長 Steve Morris; Jeff Scissons,ALLETE 企業發展兼 ALLETE 清潔能源策略長; Frank Frederickson,明尼蘇達電力公司客戶體驗與工程服務副總裁。
Corresponding slides for this morning's call are available on our website at allete.com in the Investors section. We'll refer to each page number as we go through today's presentation.
今天早上電話會議的相應投影片可在我們網站 allete.com 的投資者部分找到。在進行今天的演示時,我們將引用每個頁碼。
I'm pleased that this morning, ALLETE reported full year 2023 earnings of $4.30 per share on net income of $247.1 million compared to 2022 earnings of $3.38 per share on net income of $189.3 million. These financial results were in line with our higher revised 2023 earnings guidance range, which we provided in November. In a few minutes, Steve will give more details on these financial results as well as our 2024 earnings guidance.
我很高興今天早上,ALLETE 公佈了 2023 年全年每股收益 4.30 美元,淨利潤為 2.471 億美元,而 2022 年全年收益為每股 3.38 美元,淨利潤為 1.893 億美元。這些財務表現符合我們 11 月提供的更高修訂後的 2023 年獲利指引範圍。幾分鐘後,史蒂夫將提供有關這些財務業績以及我們 2024 年獲利指引的更多詳細資訊。
Throughout 2023, driven by ALLETE's talented and committed employees, we achieved significant operational and financial successes. As together, we are creating the clean energy future through ALLETE's sustainability in action strategy. We're building on these successes in 2024 and in years to come, providing meaningful value to our customers, our communities and our shareholders and exciting opportunities for our employees.
在整個 2023 年,在 ALLETE 才華橫溢、忠誠的員工的推動下,我們取得了重大的營運和財務成功。我們正在透過 ALLETE 的可持續發展行動策略共同創造清潔能源的未來。我們將在 2024 年和未來幾年取得這些成功,為我們的客戶、社區和股東提供有意義的價值,並為我們的員工提供令人興奮的機會。
We are committed to ALLETE's long-term financial objective of achieving consolidated earnings per share growth of 5% to 7%. And given our strong multiyear CapEx outlook, I'm confident in our ability to achieve this for our investors. Our ALLETE Board of Directors shares our confidence as demonstrated by the Board's recent approval of a dividend increase of more than 4%. This adds to ALLETE's track record of more than 74 consecutive years of dividends paid to our shareholders.
我們致力於實現 ALLETE 的長期財務目標,即實現每股綜合收益成長 5% 至 7%。鑑於我們強勁的多年資本支出前景,我對我們為投資者實現這一目標的能力充滿信心。我們的 ALLETE 董事會與我們一樣充滿信心,董事會最近批准將股息增加 4% 以上就證明了這一點。這增加了 ALLETE 連續超過 74 年向股東支付股息的記錄。
Our execution of significant strategic initiatives is paving the way for even greater success at ALLETE now and into the future. Our capital investment plan on Slide 3 illustrates the clear path with real projects representing an increase of $1 billion for a total of $4.3 billion in regulated investments over the next 5 years.
我們執行的重大策略性舉措正在為 ALLETE 現在和未來取得更大的成功鋪平道路。我們在投影片 3 上的資本投資計畫闡明了一條清晰的路徑,實際項目代表未來 5 年內增加 10 億美元,監管投資總額為 43 億美元。
I'd like to share some details on a few of those exciting projects. First, Minnesota Power is making great progress in transforming its energy mix. In November, MP issued an RFP for up to 300 megawatts of regional solar and bids have been received and are being evaluated. The solar RFP emphasizes investment in our host communities, the use of local labor and advancing supplier and workforce diversity. All of this will help ensure these solar projects deliver the best overall value to customers while strengthening the communities we are privileged to serve.
我想分享其中一些令人興奮的項目的一些細節。首先,明尼蘇達電力公司在能源結構轉型方面取得了巨大進展。 11 月,MP 發布了高達 300 兆瓦的區域太陽能招標,投標已收到並正在評估中。太陽能 RFP 強調對我們所在社區的投資、使用當地勞動力以及提高供應商和勞動力的多樣性。所有這些都將有助於確保這些太陽能專案為客戶提供最佳的整體價值,同時加強我們有幸服務的社區。
And just last week, we issued an RFP for up to 400 megawatts of wind energy. This RFP seeks new wind generation that maximizes the use of regional transmission assets for delivery to our customers. This will increase Minnesota Power's current wind portfolio of 870 megawatts of owned and contracted capacity by nearly 50%. Taken together, our portfolio of diverse renewable energy resources, including wind, solar, hydro and biomass, helps ensure we meet our customers' energy demands around the clock, while we also work to meet the state's carbon-free energy goals.
就在上週,我們發布了高達 400 兆瓦風能的 RFP。該徵求建議書尋求新的風力發電,以最大限度地利用區域輸電資產交付給我們的客戶。這將使明尼蘇達電力公司目前擁有和合約容量為 870 兆瓦的風電投資組合增加近 50%。總而言之,我們的多元化再生能源組合(包括風能、太陽能、水力和生物質)有助於確保我們全天候滿足客戶的能源需求,同時我們也努力實現該州的無碳能源目標。
In addition to adding more renewable generation, a key part of our CapEx plan includes significant transmission investments to support grid reliability in our region and throughout the Upper Midwest. Our team continues to make great progress on two 345 kV MISO long-range transmission plan projects; the Northland Reliability project, a 180-mile line from the iron range in Northern Minnesota to Central Minnesota, which we'll jointly own with Great River Energy and the Big Stone South project, a 150-mile line jointly owned by 5 utilities, including Minnesota Power, which will improve reliability in North Dakota and South Dakota as well as Western and Central Minnesota.
除了增加更多的再生能源發電外,我們的資本支出計畫的關鍵部分還包括大量的輸電投資,以支持我們地區和整個中西部上游地區的電網可靠性。我團隊兩個345kV MISO遠距離輸電規劃專案持續取得重大進展; Northland Reliability 計畫是一條從明尼蘇達州北部的煉鐵礦區到明尼蘇達州中部的180 英里線路,我們將與Great River Energy 共同擁有該項目;Big Stone South 項目是一條150 英里的線路,由5 家公用事業公司共同擁有,其中包括明尼蘇達電力公司,將提高北達科他州和南達科他州以及明尼蘇達州西部和中部的可靠性。
The Northland Reliability project is estimated to cost a total of $970 million to $1.3 billion, representing another important investment in the reliability and resiliency of the transmission system. A combined certificate of need and route permit application was filed with the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission in August, and we're working through the regulatory approval process. We anticipate the line to be in service in 2030. Minnesota Power's share of the Big Stone South project is expected to be $20 million. A certificate of need and route permit application was filed with the MPUC in September, and subject to regulatory approvals, this line is expected to be in service in 2027.
Northland Reliability計畫預計耗資9.7億至13億美元,是另一項對輸電系統可靠性和彈性的重要投資。八月份,我們向明尼蘇達州公共事業委員會提交了需求證明和路線許可申請的綜合證明,我們正在完成監管審批流程。我們預計該線路將於 2030 年投入使用。 9 月,該線路已向 MPUC 提交了需求證明和路線許可申請,待監管部門批准後,預計該線路將於 2027 年投入使用。
Next, highlighted there in our significant transmission plans is the HVDC modernization project. This project will replace aging infrastructure and modernize the terminal stations for our 465-mile DC transmission line running from Center North Dakota to Duluth, Minnesota. The existing line already provides Minnesota Power customers direct access to some of the best wind resources in the country, and this modernization project will also enhance the reliability and resiliency of the grid across the Upper Midwest.
接下來,我們重要的輸電計畫中強調的是高壓直流輸電現代化計畫。該項目將取代老化的基礎設施,並對我們從北達科他州中部到明尼蘇達州德盧斯的 465 英里直流輸電線路的終端站進行現代化改造。現有線路已經為明尼蘇達電力公司的客戶提供了直接獲得該國一些最好的風力資源的機會,這項現代化項目還將提高整個中西部北部電網的可靠性和彈性。
Our team has worked extremely hard to advance this important project while keeping costs as low as possible. To that end, we applied for and received a $50 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy, which will be used to prepare the HVDC transmission system for future expansion, and a $15 million grant as part of the energy bill passed by the Minnesota legislature in 2023. We're grateful for this meaningful support from the state of Minnesota and the Department of Energy, helping to make this important project even more affordable for customers. Pending regulatory approvals in North Dakota and Minnesota construction could begin on this $800 million to $900 million project as early as this year with an in-service date expected later this decade.
我們的團隊非常努力地推進這個重要項目,同時保持盡可能低的成本。為此,我們向美國能源部申請並獲得了5000 萬美元的撥款,該撥款將用於準備高壓直流輸電系統的未來擴建,並獲得了1500 萬美元的撥款,作為明尼蘇達州立法機構通過的能源法案的一部分2023 年。這個耗資 8 億至 9 億美元的項目正在等待北達科他州和明尼蘇達州監管部門的批准,最早可能在今年開始建設,預計本十年晚些時候投入使用。
Turning to Slide 4. As we look beyond 2028, there is much more ahead at ALLETE. We have significant regulated investment opportunities in addition to those reflected in our current $4.3 billion 5-year CapEx plan. These include projects that will be part of Minnesota Power's next IRP planned for March of 2025, as we responsibly transition our 2 remaining coal units at Boswell Energy Center. We also expect to participate in MISO's Tranche 2 transmission projects and is part of our high-voltage transmission strategy to leverage our strategic geographical position and assets to advance interregional transmission projects that support reliability, resiliency and the clean energy transformation.
轉向幻燈片 4。除了我們目前 43 億美元的 5 年資本支出計畫中反映的投資機會外,我們還有重要的受監管投資機會。這些項目將成為明尼蘇達電力計畫於 2025 年 3 月實施的下一個 IRP 的一部分,我們將負責任地過渡博斯韋爾能源中心剩餘的 2 個燃煤機組。我們也期望參與 MISO 的第二期輸電項目,這是我們高壓輸電策略的一部分,旨在利用我們的策略地理位置和資產來推進支持可靠性、彈性和清潔能源轉型的區域間輸電項目。
In addition to the exciting progress on the Minnesota Power front, in December, ALLETE and Grid United signed development agreements for the North Plains Connector project, with plans for ALLETE to pursue 35% ownership and oversee the transmission line's operations. North Plains Connector is a 400-mile HVDC transmission line planned to extend from North Dakota to Colstrip Montana. This will be the first transmission connection of 3 regional U.S. electric energy markets; MISO, SPP and the Western Interconnect to help ease congestion, increase resiliency and reliability in these markets and enable delivery of energy across a vast area of diverse terrain and weather patterns. It's a truly transformative project, and we're proud to be a part of it and look forward to other utilities in the region joining us.
除了明尼蘇達電力方面取得的令人興奮的進展外,12 月,ALLETE 和 Grid United 簽署了 North Plains 連接器項目的開發協議,其中 ALLETE 計劃獲得 35% 的所有權並監督輸電線路的運營。 North Plains Connector 是一條 400 英里長的高壓直流輸電線路,計劃從北達科他州延伸至蒙大拿州 Colstrip。這將是美國 3 個地區電力市場的首次輸電連接; MISO、SPP 和西部互聯有助於緩解擁堵,提高這些市場的彈性和可靠性,並實現在不同地形和天氣模式的廣闊區域內輸送能源。這是一個真正具有變革性的項目,我們很自豪能成為其中的一部分,並期待該地區的其他公用事業公司加入我們。
Please see Slides 5 and 6. Late last year, Minnesota Power received the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission approval to begin charging interim rates of approximately $64 million at the beginning of this year. Although there's more to play out during the year, this important approval was a constructive outcome that supports Minnesota Power's financial health and ability to continue our clean energy transformation while we deliver safe, resilient, reliable and affordable services to our customers.
請參閱幻燈片 5 和 6。儘管今年還有更多工作要做,但這項重要批准是一項建設性成果,支持明尼蘇達電力公司的財務健康和繼續清潔能源轉型的能力,同時為客戶提供安全、有彈性、可靠和負擔得起的服務。
As the state of Minnesota has enacted some of the most ambitious climate legislation in the country, we must ensure we have the people and resources to execute this public policy while ensuring reliability. This includes adding employees to serve our customers and to ensure projects are done safely, on time and on budget. We're not alone in experiencing inflationary cost pressures and increased cost of capital given the highest interest rates in decades and a unique feature requested in Minnesota Power's current rate filing is a rate stabilization mechanism designed to help protect us and our customers from volatility associated with the business cycles tied to our unique customer mix.
由於明尼蘇達州頒布了該國一些最雄心勃勃的氣候立法,我們必須確保我們擁有人員和資源來執行這項公共政策,同時確保可靠性。這包括增加員工來為我們的客戶提供服務,並確保專案安全、按時、按預算完成。鑑於數十年來的最高利率,我們並不是唯一一個面臨通膨成本壓力和資本成本增加的公司,明尼蘇達電力當前費率申報中要求的一個獨特功能是利率穩定機制,旨在幫助保護我們和我們的客戶免受與相關波動相關的影響。
We're confident that our regulators understand the importance of a constructive outcome in this consequential rate case to help ensure Minnesota Power's ability to continue our clean energy transformation, meeting the state's carbon-free energy goals while safeguarding the reliable service that powers people's lives and businesses throughout Northeastern Minnesota.
我們相信,我們的監管機構了解在這一後果性費率案件中取得建設性結果的重要性,以幫助確保明尼蘇達電力公司有能力繼續我們的清潔能源轉型,實現該州的無碳能源目標,同時保障為人們的生活和生活提供可靠的服務。
Similarly, Superior Water, Light and Power is preparing to file a rate case this year. This filing will support important infrastructure upgrades and help ensure that the company continues to provide safe, reliable and resilient electric water and gas services for its customers. As we execute our strategy in the near term, we are always focused on our customers and always planning for the future and ALLETE's future is very bright with important aspects of our long-term investment strategy already well underway.
同樣,Superior Water, Light and Power 也準備在今年提交費率案件。該文件將支持重要的基礎設施升級,並有助於確保該公司繼續為其客戶提供安全、可靠和有彈性的水力發電和燃氣服務。在我們執行近期策略時,我們始終以客戶為中心,始終為未來做好規劃,ALLETE 的未來非常光明,我們長期投資策略的重要方面已經在順利進行中。
Turning briefly to our nonregulated businesses. First, ALLETE Clean Energy. While it was great to receive the positive arbitration outcome last year, the company's earnings in 2023 were affected by congestion and market volatility at Caddo and Diamond Spring as well as a third-party substations force network outage. Addressing the effects of these issues is our priority, and we're evaluating all alternatives to improve the economics of these projects. ALLETE Clean Energy with its talented team is an important strategic contributor to ALLETE. And as we move forward into 2024, we're focused on maximizing the value of the company's fleet. We look forward to updating you on progress on all of that throughout the year.
簡單談談我們的非監管業務。首先,ALLETE清潔能源。雖然去年獲得積極的仲裁結果令人高興,但該公司 2023 年的收益受到 Caddo 和 Diamond Spring 擁堵和市場波動以及第三方變電站迫使網路中斷的影響。解決這些問題的影響是我們的首要任務,我們正在評估所有替代方案以提高這些項目的經濟效益。 ALLETE清潔能源及其優秀團隊是ALLETE的重要策略貢獻者。邁入 2024 年,我們將專注於最大限度地提高公司機隊的價值。我們期待向您通報全年所有這些方面的最新進展。
New Energy Equity exceeded our original projections for 2023 and has continued to increase its total pipeline of prospective renewable energy projects. The team's solid execution and strong pipeline have only enhanced our confidence in the resiliency and strength of this business and the value the company brings to our shareholders. ALLETE's New Energy Equity is currently a leading community solar developer in Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York and Virginia with promising markets in many other states throughout the country.
新能源股權超出了我們對 2023 年的最初預測,並繼續增加其潛在再生能源專案的總量。團隊紮實的執行力和強大的管道只會增強我們對這項業務的彈性和實力以及公司為股東帶來的價值的信心。 ALLETE 旗下的新能源股權公司目前是伊利諾伊州、明尼蘇達州、新墨西哥州、紐約州和維吉尼亞州領先的社區太陽能開發商,在全國許多其他州的市場前景廣闊。
As you can see, we've made tremendous progress throughout this year, and I'm grateful to our entire team across our family of businesses for their dedication, expertise, resiliency, innovation and always their integrity. At ALLETE, we honor our commitments, and we are committed to serving our customers and our communities with excellence every single day while we provide value to our shareholders now and well into the future.
正如您所看到的,我們今年取得了巨大進步,我感謝我們整個企業團隊的奉獻精神、專業知識、彈性、創新和始終如一的誠信。在 ALLETE,我們履行我們的承諾,我們致力於每天為我們的客戶和社區提供卓越的服務,同時為我們的股東現在和未來提供價值。
Now I'll turn it to Steve for additional details on our 2023 financial results and 2024 guidance. Steve?
現在,我將向 Steve 詢問有關我們 2023 年財務業績和 2024 年指導的更多詳細資訊。史蒂夫?
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Thanks, Bethany, and good morning, everyone. I would like to remind you that we filed our 10-K this morning along with an 8-K that provides details of our 2024 earnings guidance. Please refer to Slides 7 through 9 for the quarter and year-ended 2023 segment income statements as well as our 2024 earnings guidance.
謝謝,貝瑟尼,大家早安。我想提醒您,我們今天早上提交了 10-K 和 8-K,其中提供了我們 2024 年盈利指導的詳細資訊。請參閱投影片 7 至 9,以了解 2023 年季度和年終分部損益表以及我們的 2024 年收益指引。
Today, ALLETE reported 2023 earnings of $4.30 per share on net income of $247.1 million. Earnings in 2022 were $3.38 per share on net income of $189.3 million. These financial results were in line with our updated 2023 earnings guidance range and also reflects $0.05 per share of negative weather impacts in the fourth quarter.
今天,ALLETE 報告 2023 年每股收益為 4.30 美元,淨利潤為 2.471 億美元。 2022 年每股收益為 3.38 美元,淨利為 1.893 億美元。這些財務表現符合我們更新的 2023 年獲利指引範圍,也反映了第四季每股 0.05 美元的負面天氣影響。
If you recall, we raised our full year 2023 earnings guidance in November to a range of $4.30 to $4.40 per share to reflect several items, including a $0.71 per share after-tax gain recognized for a favorable arbitration award involving a subsidiary of ALLETE Clean Energy. Our estimates also assumed normal weather conditions in the fourth quarter.
如果您還記得的話,我們在11 月份將2023 年全年盈利指引上調至每股4.30 美元至4.40 美元,以反映多項項目,其中包括因涉及ALLETE Clean Energy 子公司的有利仲裁裁決而確認的每股0.71 美元稅後收益。我們的估計也假設第四季天氣條件正常。
Turning now to the fourth quarter of 2023 for additional details from our business segments. ALLETE's Regulated Operations segment recorded fourth quarter net income of $34.8 million compared to $30.5 million in 2022. Earnings were higher in the fourth quarter of 2023, reflecting the timing of interim rate reserves at Minnesota Power. As you recall, the entire 2022 interim reserve of approximately $12 million after tax was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022, which resulted in timing differences each quarter throughout 2023.
現在轉向 2023 年第四季度,以了解我們業務部門的更多詳細資訊。 ALLETE 的受監管營運部門第四季淨利為 3,480 萬美元,而 2022 年為 3,050 萬美元。如您所知,2022 年第四季的稅後準備金約為 1,200 萬美元,這導致 2023 年每個季度都存在時間差異。
There were also higher transmission and depreciation expenses and warmer weather negatively impacted residential and commercial sales. These decreases were partially offset by lower property tax expense as compared to 2022.
輸電和折舊費用增加以及天氣變暖對住宅和商業銷售產生了負面影響。與 2022 年相比,財產稅支出的減少部分抵消了這些下降。
ALLETE Clean Energy recorded fourth quarter 2023 net income of $5.3 million compared to $1.3 million in 2022. Net income this quarter reflected lower operations and maintenance expense. However, earnings at our Caddo wind energy facility were negatively impacted in the fourth quarter of 2023 due to a forced network outage. 2022 included a reserve of $4.2 million after tax, the anticipated loss on the sale of the Northern Wind project.
ALLETE Clean Energy 2023 年第四季淨利為 530 萬美元,而 2022 年為 130 萬美元。然而,由於網路被迫中斷,我們卡多風能設施的收益在 2023 年第四季受到了負面影響。 2022 年包括 420 萬美元的稅後儲備金,這是出售北風項目的預期損失。
Our corporate and other businesses, which includes new energy, BNI Energy and our investments in renewable energy facilities, recorded net income of $11.4 million compared to net income of $19.9 million in 2022. Net income this quarter reflects higher consolidated income tax expense and lower earnings from Minnesota solar projects. New Energy's earnings this quarter were strong but slightly below 2022 as expected as New Energy had a record fourth quarter of project closings in 2022.
我們的企業和其他業務,包括新能源、BNI 能源以及對再生能源設施的投資,淨利潤為1,140 萬美元,而2022 年淨利潤為1,990 萬美元。和收益較低來自明尼蘇達州太陽能計畫。新能源本季的獲利強勁,但略低於 2022 年的預期,因為新能源在 2022 年第四季的專案成交量創歷史新高。
I'll now provide a few details on our 2024 earnings guidance, which are summarized on Slide 9. Today, we initiated 2024 earnings guidance of $3.60 to $3.90 per share on net income of $210 million to $225 million. This guidance range is comprised of our regulated operations segment within a range of $2.65 to $2.85 per share and ALLETE Clean Energy, New Energy and our other businesses within a range of $0.95 to $1.05 per share.
現在,我將提供有關2024 年盈利指引的一些詳細信息,幻燈片9 中對此進行了總結。 。該指導範圍包括每股 2.65 美元至 2.85 美元範圍內的受監管業務部門以及每股 0.95 美元至 1.05 美元範圍內的 ALLETE 清潔能源、新能源和其他業務。
Beginning in 2025, we anticipate annual earnings growth will align with our long-term 5% to 7% growth objective using 2023 earnings per share, excluding the arbitration award, of $3.60 as a base. Our regulated capital expenditure plan will be an essential element in driving growth for ALLETE, along with financial contributions from our other businesses.
從 2025 年開始,我們預計年獲利成長將與我們 5% 至 7% 的長期成長目標保持一致,以 2023 年每股盈餘(不包括仲裁裁決)3.60 美元為基礎。我們受監管的資本支出計劃以及我們其他業務的財務貢獻將成為推動 ALLETE 成長的重要因素。
As Bethany shared, we have made substantial progress on key initiatives in 2023 and 2024 will be a year of significant and consequential regulatory approvals. Regulatory approvals and proposals in 2024 include the Minnesota Power rate case and a rate stabilization mechanism proposal, projects that result from renewable RFPs, transmission certificates of need and current cost recovery riders that will set the stage for further advancement of Minnesota Power's Energy Forward Clean Energy Transformation and related earnings growth. We will share with you procedural updates on material development throughout the year.
正如 Bethany 所說,我們在 2023 年的關鍵舉措上取得了實質進展,2024 年將是獲得重大和後續監管批准的一年。 2024 年的監管批准和提案包括明尼蘇達電力費率案例和費率穩定機制提案、可再生能源RFP 產生的項目、輸電需求證書和當前成本回收附加條款,這些將為進一步推進明尼蘇達電力的Energy Forward Clean Energy奠定基礎轉型及相關獲利成長。我們將與您分享全年材料開發的程序更新。
Minnesota Power's renewable energy and transmission investments will drive renewed earnings growth over the next several years and are detailed as part of our $4.3 billion 5-year capital expenditure plan. As we do every year, this plan was updated as part of our 10-K filing and now extends through 2028, which added approximately $1 billion in capital expenditures over our forecast period. This plan reflects the 2028 investments in renewable and transmission projects and also considers the timing of anticipated regulatory approvals and construction activities to better align with our latest time line on the RFP process.
明尼蘇達電力公司的再生能源和輸電投資將在未來幾年推動新的獲利成長,並作為我們 43 億美元的 5 年資本支出計畫的一部分進行詳細說明。正如我們每年所做的那樣,該計劃作為我們 10-K 備案的一部分進行了更新,現在延續到 2028 年,這在我們的預測期內增加了約 10 億美元的資本支出。該計劃反映了 2028 年對再生能源和輸電項目的投資,也考慮了預期監管審批和建設活動的時間,以便更好地與我們 RFP 流程的最新時間表保持一致。
Consequently, our expected capital projects related to the RFP outcomes have now shifted from 2024 to 2025 to align with this updated time line and the related earnings growth will largely be driven by these capital investments.
因此,我們與 RFP 結果相關的預期資本項目現已從 2024 年轉向 2025 年,以與更新的時間表保持一致,相關收益增長將主要由這些資本投資驅動。
ALLETE has unique liquidity options driven by several initiatives completed and underway. These include last year's arbitration award, monetization of renewable tax credits, pursuit of a holding company structure and opportunistic sales of assets. These initiatives will further benefit our financing activities related to our capital investments, maintaining our well-disciplined capital structure and support strong credit ratings as we deploy significant capital into regulated investment opportunities. ALLETE's financial position is also supported by a strong balance sheet that includes cash and cash equivalents of approximately $72 million, $370 million in available lines of credit, and a debt-to-capital ratio of 35% at the end of the year.
ALLETE 擁有獨特的流動性選擇,由多項已完成和正在進行的舉措推動。其中包括去年的仲裁裁決、可再生稅收抵免的貨幣化、尋求控股公司結構和機會主義資產出售。這些舉措將進一步有利於我們與資本投資相關的融資活動,維持我們紀律嚴明的資本結構,並在我們將大量資本部署到受監管的投資機會時支持強大的信用評級。 ALLETE 的財務狀況也得到強大的資產負債表的支持,其中包括約 7,200 萬美元的現金和現金等價物、3.7 億美元的可用信貸額度以及截至年底的 35% 的債務資本比率。
Next, some details from our business segments on 2024 expectations, starting with our regulated operations outlook. Overall, our regulated operations earnings are expected to be slightly above 2023, reflecting several key assumptions that are also included in Minnesota Power's recent rate case filing. Our guidance includes $64 million for interim rates approved by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission that went into effect January 1, 2024, as filed.
接下來,我們的業務部門對 2024 年預期的一些詳細信息,首先是我們的規範營運前景。總體而言,我們的受監管營運收益預計將略高於 2023 年,這反映了明尼蘇達電力最近提交的費率案件中也包含的幾個關鍵假設。我們的指導包括明尼蘇達州公用事業委員會批准的 6,400 萬美元臨時費率,該費率於 2024 年 1 月 1 日生效(已提交)。
Industrial sales reflect anticipated production from our taconite customers of approximately 35 million tons. We expect higher operating and maintenance expense, reflecting increased staff for large project development and inflationary cost increases. Depreciation and property tax expenses will also be higher due to increased plant in service. Regulated operations guidance for 2024 also assumes that we will achieve constructive outcomes in regulatory proceedings.
工業銷售反映了我們鐵燧岩客戶約 3500 萬噸的預期產量。我們預計營運和維護費用將會增加,反映出大型專案開發人員的增加和通貨膨脹成本的增加。由於在役工廠的增加,折舊和財產稅費用也將增加。 2024 年監理營運指南也假設我們將在監理程序中取得建設性成果。
Our ALLETE Clean Energy guidance expects total wind generation of approximately 3.7 million megawatt hours in 2024 with the expectation of normal wind resources. Actual megawatt hours in 2023 were 3.2 million. Our guidance also reflects the sale of Project Whitetail in 2024, and we anticipate some continued negative earnings impact at the Caddo wind energy facility primarily due to a 4 substation network outage near the facility.
我們的 ALLETE 清潔能源指南預計,在風力資源正常的情況下,2024 年風力發電總量約為 370 萬兆瓦時。 2023年實際發電量為320萬兆瓦時。我們的指引也反映了 2024 年 Whitetail 專案的出售,我們預計卡多風能設施的獲利將持續受到負面影響,這主要是由於該設施附近的 4 個變電站網路中斷。
Regarding corporate and other for 2024, we expect similar earnings from BNI Energy and our investment in the Nobles 2 wind energy facility and slightly lower earnings at ALLETE Properties. Earnings from ALLETE's investment in Minnesota solar projects are expected to be approximately $0.10 per share lower in 2025. In 2023, earnings reflected approximately $5 million in investment tax credits when these assets were placed in service.
關於 2024 年的企業和其他業務,我們預計 BNI Energy 和我們對 Nobles 2 風能設施的投資將獲得類似的收益,而 ALLETE Properties 的收益將略有下降。 ALLETE 對明尼蘇達州太陽能專案的投資預計到 2025 年每股收益將下降約 0.10 美元。
New Energy's strong growth momentum will continue into this year, and we expect net income of approximately $19 million to $21 million in 2024 or approximately a 14% increase over 2023 results. New Energy's healthy pipeline of projects continued expansion in current key markets and entering into a robust new markets will provide continued consistent growth and increased earnings over our forecast period.
新能源的強勁成長動能將持續到今年,我們預計 2024 年淨利潤將達到約 1,900 萬美元至 2,100 萬美元,比 2023 年業績成長約 14%。新能源公司在當前主要市場的健康項目管道持續擴張,並進入強勁的新市場,將在我們的預測期內提供持續的持續成長和增加的收益。
I'll now turn it back to Bethany for additional comments. Bethany?
我現在將其轉回貝瑟尼以徵求更多意見。貝瑟尼?
Bethany M. Owen - Chair, CEO & President
Bethany M. Owen - Chair, CEO & President
Thanks, Steve. 2023 was a fantastic year of execution and progress on ALLETE's Sustainability in Action strategy. And we expect this year will be just as strong with key positioning and important regulatory approvals, all setting the stage for even greater successes and growth at ALLETE in 2025 and beyond. Before we open the line for your questions, just a few additional comments.
謝謝,史蒂夫。 2023 年是 ALLETE 永續發展行動策略執行與進展的精彩一年。我們預計今年的關鍵定位和重要監管批准將同樣強勁,所有這些都為 ALLETE 在 2025 年及以後取得更大的成功和成長奠定了基礎。在我們開始回答您的問題之前,請先補充一些意見。
Minnesota Power's continued success in transitioning to even cleaner energy assumes reasonable regulatory outcomes. Along with a rate case result that recognizes the value we're providing to customers, the projects that move forward through the RFP process will contribute to the unprecedented transformation of our generation fleet, as will our plans for significant transmission and distribution investments.
明尼蘇達電力公司在向更清潔能源轉型方面的持續成功假定了合理的監管結果。除了認可我們為客戶提供的價值的費率案例結果之外,透過 RFP 流程推進的專案將有助於我們發電艦隊的前所未有的轉型,我們的重大輸電和配電投資計劃也是如此。
We know it's important that our plans, including the IRP approved in 2022 and the next IRP planned for early 2025, advanced clean energy goals while ensuring our system remains resilient, reliable and affordable for all of our customers.
我們知道,我們的計劃(包括2022 年批准的IRP 和計劃於2025 年初計劃的下一個IRP)能夠推進清潔能源目標,同時確保我們的系統對所有客戶保持彈性、可靠和負擔得起,這一點非常重要。
We're obviously very pleased with all that we accomplished in 2023, and we're already building strong momentum early this year. I want to re-emphasize, we are confident that ALLETE's strategic plan will enable us to achieve our annual growth objective of 5% to 7% beginning in 2025 driven by the 5-year CapEx plan we're sharing with you today. Our plan contains real projects that represent meaningful value to our customers and communities and significant regulated investments for our shareholders.
顯然,我們對 2023 年所取得的成就感到非常滿意,並且我們已經在今年年初建立了強勁的勢頭。我想再次強調,我們相信 ALLETE 的策略計畫將使我們能夠在我們今天與您分享的 5 年資本支出計畫的推動下,從 2025 年開始實現 5% 至 7% 的年度成長目標。我們的計劃包含對我們的客戶和社區具有有意義的價值的真實項目,以及對我們的股東而言重要的受監管投資。
We're confident in this strong pipeline of clean energy and transmission opportunities and in our highly skilled team of employees, and we're also confident in our regulators that their decisions will support the financial health of our company and enable us to fulfill our commitment to advance the clean energy future. We're excited about this transformative time at our company, and I believe ALLETE will continue to provide significant shareholder value well into the years ahead.
我們對這強大的清潔能源和輸電機會管道以及我們高技能的員工團隊充滿信心,我們也對我們的監管機構充滿信心,他們的決定將支持我們公司的財務健康並使我們能夠履行我們的承諾推動清潔能源的未來。我們對公司的這一變革時刻感到興奮,我相信 ALLETE 將在未來幾年繼續為股東提供重要價值。
On behalf of our entire team, thank you for your interest and your investment in ALLETE. Now I'll ask the operator to open the line for your questions.
我謹代表我們整個團隊感謝您對 ALLETE 的興趣和投資。現在我將請接線生接通您的問題電話。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith 的線路。
Tanner William James - Research Analyst
Tanner William James - Research Analyst
This is Tanner on for Julien. I just wanted to dig in a little deeper on the funding side of the updated investment plan. Specifically, does the CapEx shifting affect your expectations for the need and timing of potential block equity raises going forward?
這是坦納為朱利安主持的節目。我只是想更深入地了解更新後的投資計劃的資金方面。具體來說,資本支出的變化是否會影響您對未來潛在集體股權融資的需求和時機的預期?
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Tanner, Steve Morris. So we have little equity needs in 2024. We certainly have some equity needs beginning in 2025, probably midway through.
坦納,史蒂夫‧莫里斯。因此,我們在 2024 年幾乎沒有股權需求。
Tanner William James - Research Analyst
Tanner William James - Research Analyst
Understood. And then having rolled the EPS guide to base your 2025, is there a long-term rate base CAGR guide over the same period? I'm just kind of looking at this in reference to the prior 11% rate base CAGR guide that used 2022 as a base.
明白了。然後,在以 2025 年為基礎制定 EPS 指南後,是否有同期的長期利率基礎 CAGR 指南?我只是參考先前以 2022 年為基礎的 11% 複合年增長率指南來看待這一點。
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. It's up a little bit. It's probably closer to 14%.
是的。漲了一點點可能接近 14%。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Ellinghaus with Siebert Williams Shank & Company.
我們的下一個問題來自 Siebert Williams Shank & Company 的 Chris Ellinghaus。
Christopher Ronald Ellinghaus - MD, Principal & Senior Equity Utility Analyst
Christopher Ronald Ellinghaus - MD, Principal & Senior Equity Utility Analyst
Bethany, you sort of seem to suggest that maybe there would be some opportunities for monetization of assets and you sort of have been continuing to draw down some of the ACE assets. Are you thinking that there could be something a little chunkier from the ACE side?
Bethany,您似乎暗示也許會有一些資產貨幣化的機會,並且您一直在繼續提取一些 ACE 資產。您是否認為 ACE 方面可能會有更厚重的東西?
Bethany M. Owen - Chair, CEO & President
Bethany M. Owen - Chair, CEO & President
We're evaluating all options for optimizing ACE's fleet and exploring all opportunities there, not signaling anything like you're suggesting, Chris, but we're looking at everything.
我們正在評估優化 ACE 機隊的所有選項,並探索那裡的所有機會,並沒有像你建議的那樣發出任何信號,克里斯,但我們正在考慮一切。
Christopher Ronald Ellinghaus - MD, Principal & Senior Equity Utility Analyst
Christopher Ronald Ellinghaus - MD, Principal & Senior Equity Utility Analyst
Okay. Could you give us a little more color on -- Caddo's had plenty of issues the last couple of years. Can you give us a little color just on -- you were talking about congestion and whatnot. What have all the issues at Caddo been?
好的。您能否給我們更多資訊——Caddo's 在過去幾年中遇到了很多問題。您能為我們介紹一下嗎?卡多的所有問題是什麼?
Jeffrey Scissons - Director of Corporate Development
Jeffrey Scissons - Director of Corporate Development
Chris, this is Jeff Scissons. Yes, we've been transparent around Caddo and the basis risk that we've talked about that's associated with the contract. What's new here that we've experienced in the fourth quarter and will experience in the first quarter of 2024 is there's a substation, a neighboring substation that's got an outage, that's increased congestion and had an impact on pricing and curtailment. So that's the impact that's referenced in the script.
克里斯,這是傑夫·西森斯。是的,我們對 Caddo 以及我們所討論的與合約相關的基礎風險一直保持透明。我們在第四季度經歷並將在 2024 年第一季經歷的新情況是,有一個變電站、一個鄰近的變電站發生了停電,這加劇了擁堵並對定價和限電產生了影響。這就是腳本中提到的影響。
Christopher Ronald Ellinghaus - MD, Principal & Senior Equity Utility Analyst
Christopher Ronald Ellinghaus - MD, Principal & Senior Equity Utility Analyst
Okay. The 2024 guidance certainly suggests some regulatory lag from the CapEx. When you're thinking about or your comments about sort of returning to trend in 2025, can you give us a little color on exactly where that's coming from? Is it just the capital spend and what are your thought process on what your cadence of regulatory filings might look like going forward?
好的。 2024 年的指導意見無疑顯示資本支出存在一些監管滯後。當您考慮或評論 2025 年回歸趨勢時,您能給我們一些具體的資訊嗎?只是資本支出嗎?
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. Chris, Steve Morris. So yes, as we signaled here a little bit, there was a shift from '24 into '25 for our capital investments related to the RFP solar and wind, which are largely driving growth beginning in '25 along with beginning significant capital for transmission projects, which were reflected in our CapEx update that we have filed today. Those are rider projects.
是的。克里斯,史蒂夫‧莫里斯。所以,是的,正如我們在這裡稍微暗示的那樣,我們與RFP 太陽能和風能相關的資本投資從24 年轉變為25 年,這在很大程度上推動了25 年開始的增長,同時開始為輸電項目提供大量資本,這反映在我們今天提交的資本支出更新中。這些是騎手項目。
Most of those are rider projects as well. So subject to cost recovery outside of rate cases. So that will help our earnings growth right away beginning in 2025. But with that, we signaled in the past more frequent smaller, simpler rate cases. So these rider projects will help keep us out of rate cases, but should we need to go in for a rate case down the road, we certainly will.
其中大部分也是騎手項目。因此,除費率情況外,還需考慮成本回收。因此,這將有助於我們從 2025 年開始立即實現獲利成長。因此,這些騎手項目將幫助我們遠離費率案件,但如果我們需要在未來處理費率案件,我們當然會這樣做。
Christopher Ronald Ellinghaus - MD, Principal & Senior Equity Utility Analyst
Christopher Ronald Ellinghaus - MD, Principal & Senior Equity Utility Analyst
And lastly, the slide with your expectations on MISO Tranche 2, so what gives you the visibility there?
最後,這張投影片表達了您對 MISO Tranche 2 的期望,那麼是什麼讓您看到了那裡的知名度呢?
Bethany M. Owen - Chair, CEO & President
Bethany M. Owen - Chair, CEO & President
That process is obviously underway. As you think about, we will have more visibility even as early as later this year. We expect kind of the Tranche 2 process to be complete in the first part of 2025. But obviously, we're working closely with MISO and other utilities throughout that process. So we anticipate having much more visibility later this year.
這個過程顯然正在進行中。正如你所想,我們最早在今年晚些時候就會有更多的知名度。我們預計 Tranche 2 流程將在 2025 年上半年完成。因此,我們預計今年晚些時候會有更多的知名度。
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
And Chris, just note that those expected projects, we said 2% to 3% of sort of parts are not in our capital schedule at this time.
克里斯,請注意,那些預期的項目,我們說 2% 到 3% 的零件目前不在我們的資本計劃中。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Alex Mortimer with Mizuho Securities.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的 Alex Mortimer。
Alexander Mortimer - Associate
Alexander Mortimer - Associate
Using the midpoint of your 2024 guidance, regulated operations makes up right around 70%, 75% of your business as things stand today. Given the increase in your CapEx plan, how do you think about what that split might start to look like in '25, '26, '27 as we get later into the plan? And is there a goal ratio you have in mind as you look into your forecast period?
以 2024 年指引的中點計算,依照目前的情況,受監管的營運約佔您業務的 70%、75%。考慮到您的資本支出計劃的增加,當我們稍後進入該計劃時,您如何看待 25 年、26 年、27 年的分割情況?當您研究預測期時,您心中是否有一個目標比率?
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Yes, good morning Alex. Steve Morris here. Yes, you're right, it's 75%, but that number is going to grow. If you look at our CapEx, almost all of that is related to the regulated operations. So I don't have an exact number off the top of my head, but that number will grow from 75% and upward as the ratio of nonregulated will obviously drop in because of that significant capital spend.
是的,早上好,亞歷克斯。史蒂夫·莫里斯在這裡。是的,你是對的,是 75%,但這個數字還會成長。如果你看看我們的資本支出,幾乎所有這些都與受監管的營運有關。因此,我腦子裡沒有一個確切的數字,但這個數字將從 75% 開始增長,甚至更高,因為由於大量的資本支出,不受監管的比例將顯著下降。
Alexander Mortimer - Associate
Alexander Mortimer - Associate
Okay. Understood. And then can you discuss the linearity of your earnings outlook? You mentioned the confidence of being within your (inaudible) and '25 and beyond. But do you expect to be within that range every year? Or do you expect maybe some volatility as you work through regulatory proceedings to get this incorporated or get this increased spend incorporated?
好的。明白了。然後您能討論一下您的獲利前景的線性嗎?您提到了對自己(聽不清楚)、25 歲及以後的信心。但您預計每年都會在這個範圍內嗎?或者,您是否預計在通過監管程序以將其納入或將增加的支出納入其中時可能會出現一些波動?
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. No. Great question, Alex. We would expect that beginning in '25 each of those years, as I've noted, and if you look at the CapEx schedule, little regulatory lag because much of this is rider based. So we would expect cost recovery riders less lag due to needed rate cases.
是的。不,問得好,亞歷克斯。正如我所指出的,我們預計每年從 25 年開始,如果您查看資本支出時間表,您會發現監管滯後很小,因為其中大部分都是基於騎士的。因此,我們預計成本回收騎士會因所需的費率情況而出現更少的延遲。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Sarah Akers with Wells Fargo.
我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的莎拉‧阿克斯 (Sarah Akers)。
Sarah Elizabeth Akers - Senior Equity Analyst
Sarah Elizabeth Akers - Senior Equity Analyst
Just a follow up on the 14% rate base CAGR and then combined with comments that there should be minimal regulatory lag. Just what's driving the delta between that 14% in the 5% to 7% EPS CAGR?
只是對 14% 的複合年增長率進行跟進,然後結合評論認為監管滯後應該最小化。究竟是什麼推動了 5% 至 7% EPS 複合年增長率中 14% 的增量?
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Sarah, Steve Morris. Yes, my favorite question, of course. We still have regulatory approvals and RFPs to win. So we have some, obviously, risk there. But -- and then we do have some capital needs beginning in 2025. So more insight into that later on once we get those.
莎拉,史蒂夫莫里斯。是的,當然,我最喜歡的問題。我們仍然需要獲得監管部門的批准和 RFP。因此,顯然我們存在一些風險。但是,從 2025 年開始,我們確實有一些資本需求。
Sarah Elizabeth Akers - Senior Equity Analyst
Sarah Elizabeth Akers - Senior Equity Analyst
Got it. And then just looking at the industrial sales outlook, I'm seeing 7 million-megawatt hours in '23, and then the guidance for '24 is 6.2 million. So that 11% decline in industrial volumes for '24, just what are the assumptions that are driving that expectation down?
知道了。然後只要看看工業銷售前景,我預計 23 年將達到 700 萬兆瓦時,而 24 年的指導值為 620 萬兆瓦時。那麼,24 年工業產量下降了 11%,到底是什麼假設導致這項預期下降?
Frank Frederickson - VP of Customer Experience- Minnesota Power
Frank Frederickson - VP of Customer Experience- Minnesota Power
Good morning Sarah, Frank Frederickson here, and thank you for that question. So as we're looking ahead at our forecast, we focus on kind of an overall average level of taconite sales of rate around 35 million tons, and there is variability in which facilities that comes from which is also one of the key reasons that we're pursuing a rate stabilization mechanism in this current rate proceeding to really adjust for that and track that on a fair and balanced method.
早安,莎拉,弗蘭克·弗雷德里克森,謝謝你提出這個問題。因此,當我們展望未來的預測時,我們關注的是大約 3500 萬噸的鐵燧石銷售總體平均水平,而來自哪個設施的差異也是我們的關鍵原因之一。機制,以真正對此進行調整,並以公平和平衡的方式跟踪它。
But what you're seeing in that outlook is just more of an average level of production coming across the 6 different facilities that produce taconite in our region and balancing out. And as we look historically, it can come from a different mix of facilities and it can come at a different overall total tonnage as well. So that's why you'll see a little difference between different historical years, '21, '22, '23 versus our 2024 outlook.
但您在該前景中看到的更多只是我們地區生產鐵燧岩的 6 個不同設施的平均生產水平並保持平衡。從歷史上看,它可以來自不同的設施組合,也可以有不同的總噸位。因此,您會看到不同歷史年份「21」、「22」、「23」與我們的 2024 年展望之間存在一些差異。
Sarah Elizabeth Akers - Senior Equity Analyst
Sarah Elizabeth Akers - Senior Equity Analyst
Okay. And then last one on O&M. It sounds like that's a key driver with some increases in '24. Can you give us a sense of the magnitude of the O&M increase that we should be thinking about for '24 versus '23?
好的。最後一篇是關於維運的。聽起來這是 24 年有所成長的關鍵驅動因素。您能否讓我們了解一下我們應該考慮的 24 世紀與 23 世紀 O&M 成長幅度?
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Steven Wayne Morris - Senior VP & CFO
Yes, it's about a 6% increase over '23, Sarah.
是的,比 23 年增加了大約 6%,莎拉。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Brian Russo with Sidoti.
(操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Russo 和 Sidoti 的線路。
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Just a follow-up on the industrial sales. That's total industrial sales, right? So it's taconite, paper and pulp and in the pipelines and industrials. I think according to the 10-K, tons produced was 35 million at taconite, and that's the same assumption for 2024. So should we assume a similar megawatt hour sales out of the taconite and lower sales out of paper, pulp and pipelines? Just curious there.
只是工業銷售的後續行動。這是工業銷售總額,對吧?因此,它是鐵燧石、紙張和紙漿以及管道和工業中的產品。我認為根據10-K,鐵燧岩的產量為3500 萬噸,這與2024 年的假設相同。較低?只是好奇那裡。
Frank Frederickson - VP of Customer Experience- Minnesota Power
Frank Frederickson - VP of Customer Experience- Minnesota Power
Thank you, Brian. Frank Frederickson here again. So just a little more detail on that is, you're right. It is all of our industrial sales, including taconite and pulp and paper and pipeline. Our variability largely comes out of the taconite production. So I would say in what we're trying to forecast and portraying also as a forecast in our 2024 test year of our rate case is, is an average level and spread across the facilities.
謝謝你,布萊恩。弗蘭克·弗雷德里克森又來了。所以只要再詳細一點,你是對的。這是我們所有的工業銷售,包括鐵燧石、紙漿、紙張和管道。我們的可變性很大程度上來自於鐵燧岩的生產。因此,我想說的是,我們試圖預測和描繪的 2024 年費率案例測試年的預測是,是平均水平並分佈在各個設施中。
So again, you're going to see a little bit of a difference depending on what facilities produce the tons historically versus a total average what we're projecting in that overall megawatt hour sales in 2024. So I wouldn't -- I would really say it's in the taconite assumption.
再說一次,你會看到一些差異,取決於歷史上生產噸數的設施與我們預測的 2024 年兆瓦時總銷量的總平均數。中。
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Okay. Got it. And can you share what the large power customer nominations are for the first 4 months of 2024?
好的。知道了。您能否分享一下 2024 年前 4 個月的大電力客戶提名情況?
Frank Frederickson - VP of Customer Experience- Minnesota Power
Frank Frederickson - VP of Customer Experience- Minnesota Power
Sure. The first 4 months, our nominations largely came in, in line with our 2024 outlook. So slightly less than full operations, which is reflective of that operating paper mills and also a little bit right around that 35 million-ton outlook for the year. It's early, but they reflect that general pace.
當然。前 4 個月,我們的提名大部分都已完成,與我們 2024 年的展望一致。略低於全面開工,這反映了造紙廠的運作情況,也略低於今年 3,500 萬噸的預期。雖然還為時過早,但它們反映了整體節奏。
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Okay. Great. And then just switching to ACE and the Caddo issues. Is the cost that you plan on -- that you expect to incur in the fourth -- in the first quarter of 2024 similar to what you expected in the fourth quarter of '23, which I think was $0.10 for the substation outage.
好的。偉大的。然後切換到 ACE 和 Caddo 問題。您計劃在 2024 年第一季第四季度產生的成本是否與您在 2023 年第四季的預期類似,我認為變電站停電費用為 0.10 美元。
Jeffrey Scissons - Director of Corporate Development
Jeffrey Scissons - Director of Corporate Development
Brian, this is Jeff. Yes, that's correct. We do expect similar impact.
布萊恩,這是傑夫。是的,這是正確的。我們確實預計會有類似的影響。
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Okay. Great. And then any more detail on the Whitetail sale? Is it a sale to a regional utility or anyone else? And is there a gain or a loss embedded in the guidance assumptions?
好的。偉大的。那麼有關 Whitetail 銷售的更多細節嗎?是出售給地區公用事業公司還是其他任何人?指導假設中是否包含收益或損失?
Jeffrey Scissons - Director of Corporate Development
Jeffrey Scissons - Director of Corporate Development
Yes. Brian, the project is making good progress on the permitting side and getting close to notice to proceed within the budget, there would be a gain. I think you can use Red Barn, which is a slightly larger project as kind of a guideline on that.
是的。布萊恩,該專案在許可方面取得了良好進展,並且即將在預算範圍內進行,將會有所收穫。我認為你可以使用 Red Barn,這是一個稍大的項目作為指導。
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Okay. Great. So I guess the assumption is the cash proceeds from that sale will help support your financing needs in 2024?
好的。偉大的。所以我猜假設這次出售的現金收益將有助於支持您 2024 年的融資需求?
Jeffrey Scissons - Director of Corporate Development
Jeffrey Scissons - Director of Corporate Development
Correct.
正確的。
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Brian J. Russo - Equity Analyst
Okay. And then lastly, just on new energy equity. Are there any assumptions you could offer in addition to the $19 million to $21 million in earnings just so we can track the progress of that business as we move through the year? Maybe if it's project closings or maybe even an EBITDA figure?
好的。最後,關於新能源股權。除了 1,900 萬至 2,100 萬美元的收益之外,您是否還可以提供任何假設,以便我們能夠追蹤該業務在這一年中的進展?也許是專案結束,甚至是 EBITDA 數字?
Jeffrey Scissons - Director of Corporate Development
Jeffrey Scissons - Director of Corporate Development
Yes. Brian, this is Jeff again. What we've learned here over the last 2 years is that all megawatts are a little bit different. So I think we referenced around 100 megawatts closed, but that can take different shapes and forms. So we're trying to be as transparent as possible to give it to the net income line. And I think you heard some of the growth in some different states. But I think you can use roughly 100 megawatts of closed projects and the net income that was disclosed.
是的。布萊恩,這又是傑夫。過去兩年我們了解到,所有兆瓦功率都略有不同。因此,我認為我們參考了大約 100 兆瓦的關閉量,但這可以採取不同的形狀和形式。因此,我們試圖盡可能透明地將其計入淨利潤線。我想你已經聽到了一些不同州的成長。但我認為你可以使用大約 100 兆瓦的已關閉項目和已披露的淨收入。
Operator
Operator
And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the call back over to Bethany Owen for closing remarks.
目前我不會再提出任何問題。我想將電話轉回給貝瑟尼歐文 (Bethany Owen) 致閉幕詞。
Bethany M. Owen - Chair, CEO & President
Bethany M. Owen - Chair, CEO & President
Thank you again for being with us this morning and for your investment and interest in ALLETE. We're looking forward to speaking with many of you soon, whether it's in person or virtually at various investor conferences throughout the year, and we hope you enjoy the rest of your day.
再次感謝您今天早上與我們在一起以及您對 ALLETE 的投資和興趣。我們期待很快與你們中的許多人進行交談,無論是面對面還是在全年的各種投資者會議上,我們希望你們度過愉快的一天。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。