雅保公司 (ALB) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收 13 億美元,年減主因鋰價下跌,但能源儲存與特用化學品銷量成長部分抵銷;調整後 EBITDA 3.36 億美元,亦年減,但較前季改善。
    • 維持 2025 年全年展望,預期全年自由現金流轉正,並下修全年 CapEx 至 6.5-7 億美元(較去年減少約 60%)。
    • 盤後未提及股價或同業對比,市場反應未明。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 能源儲存事業銷量創新高,帶動固定成本吸收與產品組合優化。
      • 全球鋰需求強勁,2025 年預估成長 15-40%,長期預期 2024-2030 年需求倍增。
      • 成本與生產力提升計畫已達 4 億美元目標,提前半年達標,持續推動效率提升。
      • 現金流管理與資本支出嚴控,強化財務彈性。
    • 風險:
      • 鋰價持續低檔,若進一步下跌將壓縮 EBITDA 與自由現金流指引下緣。
      • 全球鋰市場供過於求,短期內產能過剩,部分中國產能已關閉但不確定性高。
      • 地區政策(如美國關稅、補貼、歐洲排放規範)及需求變動帶來不確定性。
      • 美國市場需求相對疲弱,北美僅占全球 EV 銷量約 10%,對全球需求影響有限。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 能源儲存事業:LCE 銷量成長預期達全年 0-10% 區間高端,Q2 EBITDA margin 約 30%,全年預期中位數 20% 多。
    • 特用化學品事業:Q2 EBITDA 年增 35%,全年預期溫和成長,Q3 表現與 Q2 類似。
    • SG&A 費用年減超過 20%,反映成本節約成效。
    • 淨負債/調整後 EBITDA 比率降至 2.3 倍,財務槓桿低於契約上限。
  4. 財務預測
    • 全年營收、EBITDA 指引維持,假設鋰價每公斤 9 美元持平至年底。
    • 能源儲存全年 EBITDA margin 預估中位數 20% 多(Q2 為 30%,下半年因合約組合變化略降)。
    • 2025 年 CapEx 下修至 6.5-7 億美元,較去年減少約 60%。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 下半年合約與現貨銷售組合變化原因?2026 年後組合會否大幅改變?
      A: 主要因客戶需求時點不同,合約與現貨比例會於各季間波動,2026 年預期仍維持約 50% 長約,未見結構性改變。
    • Q: 鋰價若低於 9 美元/公斤,對 EBITDA 與自由現金流指引影響?
      A: 指引假設全年均價 9 美元/公斤,若價格進一步下跌,將增加達成指引下緣的壓力。
    • Q: 鋰供給現況與中國產能調整情形?
      A: 中國有部分產能關閉,但原因不明,整體供給壓力仍大,需更多產能退出市場。
    • Q: 若鋰價維持 9 美元/公斤,2026-2028 年能否持續自由現金流為正?
      A: 目標是持續正向自由現金流,將靠成本節約、產能提升、JV 資本支出減少與嚴控 CapEx 等措施實現。
    • Q: 能源儲存事業下半年毛利率展望?合約量是否已於上半年用盡?
      A: 合約量未用盡,上半年合約需求較高,Q3 現貨占比提升,Q4 合約需求回升,全年組合仍有彈性。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and welcome to Albemarle Corporation's Q2 2025 earnings call. I will now hand it over to Meredith Bandy, Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability.

    您好,歡迎參加 Albemarle Corporation 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。現在我將把發言權交給投資者關係和永續發展副總裁 Meredith Bandy。

  • Meredith Bandy - Vice President - Investor Relations and Sustainability

    Meredith Bandy - Vice President - Investor Relations and Sustainability

  • Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to Albemarle's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings were released after market closed yesterday, and you'll find the press release and earnings presentation posted to our website under the Investors section at albemarle.com. Joining me on the call today are Kent Masters, Chief Executive Officer; and Neil Sheorey, Chief Financial Officer. Netha Johnson, Chief Operations Officer; and Eric Norris, Chief Commercial Officer, are also available for Q&A. As a reminder, some of the statements made during this call, including our outlook, guidance, expected company performance, and strategic initiatives may constitute forward-looking statements.

    感謝大家,歡迎大家參加 Albemarle 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我們的收益報告於昨日收盤後發布,您可以在我們網站 albemarle.com 的「投資者」版塊找到新聞稿和收益報告。今天與我一同參加電話會議的還有執行長 Kent Masters 和財務長 Neil Sheorey。營運長 Netha Johnson 和首席商務長 Eric Norris 也將接受問答。提醒一下,本次電話會議中所做的一些聲明,包括我們的展望、指導、預期的公司業績和策略性舉措可能構成前瞻性聲明。

  • Please note the cautionary language about forward-looking statements contained in our press release and earnings presentation that also applies to this call. Please also note that some of our comments today refer to non-GAAP financial measures reconciliations can be found in our earnings materials.

    請注意,我們的新聞稿和收益報告中關於前瞻性陳述的警告性語言也適用於本次電話會議。另請注意,我們今天的一些評論涉及非公認會計準則財務指標對賬,可在我們的收益資料中找到。

  • And now I'll turn the call over to Kent.

    現在我將把電話轉給肯特。

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Meredith. For the second quarter, we reported net sales of $1.3 billion including strong volume growth and energy storage and specialties. Adjusted EBITDA was $336 million, reflecting year-over-year cost and productivity improvements and energy storage product mix.

    謝謝你,梅雷迪斯。第二季度,我們報告的淨銷售額為 13 億美元,其中包括強勁的銷售成長以及能源儲存和特殊產品。調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.36 億美元,反映了同比成本和生產力的提高以及儲能產品組合的改善。

  • As a result of this performance and cash actions we pursued in the quarter, we also improved our leverage metrics and strengthened our financial flexibility.

    由於本季的業績表現和我們採取的現金行動,我們也改善了槓桿指標並增強了財務靈活性。

  • We are maintaining our 2025 outlook considerations and now expect to achieve positive free cash flow in 2025. Both assume the current low lithium market pricing persists for the remainder of the year. This is largely due to our team's successful execution of measures to reduce operating and capital cost and preserve financial flexibility. For example, as of June, we achieved a 100% run rate of our $400 million cost and productivity improvement target. The high end of our initial target range.

    我們維持對 2025 年前景的考慮,目前預計 2025 年將實現正自由現金流。雙方均預計,目前鋰市場的低價將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。這在很大程度上歸功於我們的團隊成功實施了降低營運和資本成本並保持財務靈活性的措施。例如,截至 6 月份,我們已 100% 實現了 4 億美元成本和生產力改善目標。我們初始目標範圍的高端。

  • We are also further reducing our full-year 2025 expected capital expenditures to the range of $650 million to $700 million down about 60% versus last year.

    我們也進一步將 2025 年全年預期資本支出下調至 6.5 億美元至 7 億美元之間,較去年下降約 60%。

  • Finally, we enhanced our financial flexibility by redeeming preferred shares we held for an aggregate value of $307 million.

    最後,我們透過贖回所持有的總價值 3.07 億美元的優先股增強了我們的財務靈活性。

  • On a relative basis, we see macro conditions stabilizing and there end markets and operations have generally followed the trajectory we expected this year. Lithium demand continues to grow strongly, with estimated global lithium consumption up about 35% year-to-date, including strong volume and stationary storage and EVs.

    相對而言,我們看到宏觀環境正在穩定,終端市場和營運總體上遵循了我們今年預期的軌跡。鋰需求持續強勁成長,今年迄今全球鋰消費量估計成長了約 35%,其中包括大量固定儲存和電動車。

  • We continue to expect the direct impacts of tariffs announced since April to be minimal on our enterprise, thanks to the exemptions and our global footprint. And finally, in the Middle East, our operations in Jordan have continued uninterrupted by the recent Iran-Israel conflict.

    我們仍然預計,由於豁免和我們的全球影響力,自 4 月以來宣布的關稅對我們企業的直接影響將微乎其微。最後,在中東,我們在約旦的行動並未因最近的伊朗和以色列衝突而中斷。

  • We'll dive into these and other macro conditions later in the call.

    我們將在稍後的電話會議中深入探討這些和其他宏觀條件。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Neil who will provide more details on our financial performance and outlook considerations. I will conclude our prepared remarks with an update on our macro and in marketing conditions, including further details on our lithium market forecast before opening the call for Q&A.

    現在我將把時間交給尼爾,他將提供有關我們的財務表現和前景考慮的更多細節。在開始問答環節之前,我將以宏觀和市場狀況的更新來結束我們準備好的發言,包括有關鋰市場預測的更多細節。

  • Neal Sheorey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Neal Sheorey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Kent, and good morning, everyone. I will begin with a review of our second quarter financial performance on slide 5. We reported second quarter net sales of $1.3 billion, which declined year-over-year, mainly due to lower lithium market pricing.

    謝謝你,肯特,大家早安。我首先會回顧第五張投影片上我們第二季的財務表現。我們報告第二季淨銷售額為 13 億美元,年減,主要原因是鋰市場價格下跌。

  • The pricing impact was partially offset by higher volumes in energy storage and specialties. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $336 million also down year-over-year. Lower input costs and ongoing cost and productivity improvements helped to mitigate the impact of lower lithium pricing and reduced pre-tax equity earnings. EBITDA improved sequentially, largely due to higher energy storage and specialties volumes and continued cost savings.

    定價影響被能源儲存和特種產品銷售的增加部分抵消。第二季調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.36 億美元,年比也下降。較低的投入成本和持續的成本和生產力改進有助於減輕鋰價下跌和稅前股權收益減少的影響。EBITDA 環比成長,主要由於能源儲存和特種產品產量增加以及成本持續節約。

  • Adjusted earnings per share was higher year-over-year due primarily to a prior-year charge related to asset write-offs and associated contract cancellation costs.

    調整後每股收益較去年同期成長,主要由於去年同期的資產註銷費用和相關合約取消費用。

  • Slide 6 highlights the drivers of our year-over-year EBITDA performance. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was down slightly due to lower lithium pricing and pre-tax equity income, mostly offset by reduced COGS related to the timing of Talison inventory flow through as well as the benefits of our cost and efficiency improvements.

    幻燈片 6 重點介紹了我們 EBITDA 同比表現的驅動因素。由於鋰價格和稅前股權收益下降,第二季調整後的 EBITDA 略有下降,但大部分被與 Talison 庫存週轉時間相關的 COGS 減少以及成本和效率改進的好處所抵消。

  • The EBITDA impact of volumetric growth is primarily captured in the COGS impact as our year-over-year volume growth enabled improved fixed cost absorption and reduced reliance on third-party tollers.

    銷售成長對 EBITDA 的影響主要體現在 COGS 影響中,因為我們的銷售量年增率提高了固定成本吸收率,並減少了對第三方收費商的依賴。

  • Our SG&A costs were down more than 20% year-over-year due to our cost savings initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 35% in specialties year-over-year due to higher volumes and pricing as well as reduced costs. Corporate EBITDA increased primarily due to cost reductions and foreign exchange gains.

    由於我們採取了成本節約舉措,銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 年比下降了 20% 以上。由於銷售和價格上漲以及成本降低,調整後 EBITDA 年成長 35%。企業 EBITDA 的成長主要得益於成本的降低和外匯收益。

  • Moving to slide 7. As always, we are providing outlook scenarios based on recently observed lithium market pricing. And on this slide, we have presented Albemarle's comprehensive company roll up for each lithium market price scenario.

    移至幻燈片 7。像往常一樣,我們根據最近觀察到的鋰市場價格提供展望情景。在這張投影片上,我們展示了 Albemarle 公司針對每種鋰市場價格情境的綜合情況。

  • All three scenarios reflect the results of assumed flat market pricing across the year in conjunction with energy storage's current book of business with ranges based on expected volume and mix.

    所有這三種情境都反映了假設的全年市場價格平穩的結果,以及基於預期數量和組合的能源儲存當前業務範圍。

  • Our approximately $9 per kilogram scenario is based on Q2 average market pricing. For reference, the average lithium market price year-to-date was also just over $9 per kilogram LCE. And if we were to assume current pricing held for the balance of the year, the price would similarly be about $9 per kilogram LCE.

    我們大約每公斤 9 美元的預測是基於第二季的平均市場定價。作為參考,今年迄今鋰市場平均價格也略高於每公斤 LCE 9 美元。如果我們假設當前價格在今年餘下時間內保持不變,那麼價格同樣將為每公斤 LCE 約 9 美元。

  • As you see here, we are maintaining our outlook consideration ranges. In particular, the approximately $9 per kilogram range is expected to apply assuming recent pricing persists for the remainder of the year.

    正如您在這裡看到的,我們維持我們的展望考慮。具體來說,假設最近的定價在今年剩餘時間內持續下去,預計將適用每公斤約 9 美元的價格範圍。

  • We've been able to maintain our outlook ranges due to a combination of successful execution of our cost and productivity improvements, operational excellence, including energy storage project ramps, and strong first half 2025 demand from energy storage contract customers.

    由於成功實施了成本和生產力改進、營運卓越(包括儲能專案提升)以及 2025 年上半年儲能合約客戶的強勁需求,我們得以維持我們的展望範圍。

  • Turning to slide 8 for additional outlook commentary by segment.

    請翻到幻燈片 8 查看各部分的更多展望評論。

  • First, in energy storage, we now expect sales volume growth on an LCE basis to be near the high end of our 0% to 10% range thanks to year-to-date record production from our integrated conversion network, plus improved mine performance at Wagina and strong performance at the Salar yield improvement project.

    首先,在儲能領域,由於我們綜合轉換網絡今年迄今的產量創歷史新高,加上瓦吉納礦場業績的提高和薩拉爾產量提升項目的強勁表現,我們現在預計 LCE 基礎上的銷售量增長將接近 0% 至 10% 區間的高端。

  • Energy storage long-term agreements continue to perform in line with our forecast, and we have no significant contracts up for renewal this year. We realized a strong first half energy storage EBITDA margin of about 30%, thanks to lower input costs and a higher than average proportion of lithium salts sold under long-term agreements.

    能源儲存長期協議的表現持續符合我們的預測,今年我們沒有需要續約的重要合約。由於投入成本較低以及長期協議下銷售的鋰鹽比例高於平均水平,我們上半年實現了約 30% 的強勁儲能 EBITDA 利潤率。

  • As a result, we experienced better-than-expected product mix in the second quarter. Second half margin is expected to be lower due to a smaller proportion of our lithium salt sales being under long-term agreements. Also, some spodumene sales that were previously expected in June, shipped in July.

    因此,我們第二季的產品組合優於預期。由於我們的鋰鹽銷售額中長期協議比例較小,預計下半年利潤率將會較低。此外,部分原定於 6 月銷售的鋰輝石已於 7 月出貨。

  • Net net, we continue to expect the full year EBITDA margin to average in the mid-20% range, assuming our $9 per kilogram price scenario.

    淨額方面,我們繼續預期全年 EBITDA 利潤率平均在 20% 左右,假設我們的價格情境為每公斤 9 美元。

  • In specialties, we continue to expect modest volume growth for the full year with Q3 net sales and EBITDA projected to be similar to Q2.

    在特種產品方面,我們繼續預期全年銷售將溫和成長,第三季淨銷售額和 EBITDA 預計將與第二季持平。

  • Finally, at Katchen, we expect modest improvements in full-year 2025. We see Q4 being the strongest quarter of the year with higher volumes for both FCC and CFT. Please refer to our appendix slides for additional modeling considerations across the enterprise.

    最後,我們預計卡欽地區 2025 年全年將出現適度改善。我們認為第四季是今年表現最強勁的一個季度,FCC 和 CFT 的銷量都將增加。請參閱我們的附錄投影片,以了解整個企業的其他建模考量。

  • Slide 9 highlights our strong focus on cash management actions. As a result of our commitment to effective execution and converting earnings into cash, we continue to expect full-year operating cash conversion in excess of 80%.

    第 9 張投影片強調了我們對現金管理行動的高度關注。由於我們致力於有效執行並將收益轉化為現金,我們預計全年營運現金轉換率將超過 80%。

  • Additionally, we now expect to achieve positive full-year 2025 free cash flow as a result of our operating cash flow generation and our reduced capital expenditure forecast, which we lowered to a range of $650 million to $700 million.

    此外,由於我們的營運現金流產生和資本支出預測的降低(我們將資本支出預測下調至 6.5 億美元至 7 億美元),我們現在預計 2025 年全年自由現金流將為正。

  • Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity metrics on slide 10. The measures we've implemented to control costs, reduce capital spending, enhance cash conversion, and drive other cash actions have strengthened our financial flexibility.

    前往投影片 10 上的資產負債表和流動性指標。我們為控製成本、減少資本支出、提高現金轉換率和推動其他現金行動所採取的措施增強了我們的財務靈活性。

  • We ended the second quarter with available liquidity of $3.4 billion including $1.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents and the full $1.5 billion available under our revolver.

    截至第二季末,我們擁有 34 億美元的可用流動資金,其中包括 18 億美元的現金和現金等價物,以及我們的循環信貸額度下的全部 15 億美元。

  • At the end of the quarter, we closed on the redemption of our holdings, a preferred equity in a WR Grace subsidiary for an aggregate value of $307 million including $288 million in cash received in June 2025. This transaction further contributed to our strong liquidity position.

    在本季末,我們完成了所持股份的贖回,即 WR Grace 子公司的優先股,總價值為 3.07 億美元,其中包括 2025 年 6 月收到的 2.88 億美元現金。此次交易進一步增強了我們的流動性狀況。

  • We continue to improve our leverage ratios, ending the quarter with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.3 times, well below the covenant limit.

    我們持續提高槓桿比率,本季末淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 2.3 倍,遠低於契約限額。

  • As a result of our cache performance and liquidity strength, we intend to utilize our cash for deleveraging. As a first step, we expect to repay our $440 million euro bonds with cash on hand as those bonds mature in November. With that, I'll turn it over to Kent.

    由於我們的快取性能和流動性實力,我們打算利用現金進行去槓桿。作為第一步,我們預計將在 11 月債券到期時用手頭上的現金償還 4.4 億歐元債券。說完這些,我就把麥克風交給肯特。

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Neil. I'd like to start by covering more details on the in-market and macro conditions starting on slide 11. First, I will cover our JV operations in Jordan, given the recent activity in the Middle East. That business continued to operate safely and uninterrupted, and even achieved record production in the second quarter.

    謝謝,尼爾。我想從第 11 張投影片開始,先詳細介紹市場和宏觀狀況。首先,鑑於中東地區最近的活動,我將介紹我們在約旦的合資業務。該業務繼續安全、不間斷地運營,甚至在第二季度實現了創紀錄的產量。

  • This is thanks in part to our Nebo project, which provides both financial and sustainability benefits. Nebo leverages innovative proprietary technology to recycle a co-product stream into additional sellable product. The result is higher volumes, lower cost, and improved energy and water efficiency.

    這在一定程度上要歸功於我們的 Nebo 項目,它既提供了財務效益,又帶來了可持續性效益。Nebo 利用創新的專有技術將副產品流回收為額外的可銷售產品。其結果是產量更高、成本更低、能源和水效率更高。

  • The project reached mechanical completion in March and continues to ramp on plan. Here in the United States, the OBBB was recently passed. It is a complex piece of legislation, and we are actively assessing its implications to Albemarle as rulemaking continues to take shape. For example, there are several corporate tax implications that appear to be neutral to positive for Albemarle.

    該項目於三月實現機械完工,並繼續按計劃推進。在美國,OBBB 最近獲得通過。這是一部複雜的立法,隨著規則制定的不斷成形,我們正在積極評估其對 Albemarle 的影響。例如,對於 Albemarle 來說,有幾項企業稅收影響似乎是中性到積極的。

  • As expected, the Act also amends certain aspects of the Inflation Reduction Act and reinforces the value of our global assets, especially lithium production in the United States and Chile. The 45x tax credit remains in place for US production of batteries and critical materials, with phase out beginning in 2031 and ending in 2034.

    正如預期的那樣,該法案還修改了《通貨膨脹削減法案》的某些方面,並加強了我們全球資產的價值,特別是美國和智利的鋰生產。美國對電池和關鍵材料的生產仍然實行 45 倍稅收抵免,並將於 2031 年開始逐步取消,並於 2034 年結束。

  • Albemarle continues to expect 45x tax credits for critical minerals production at Silver Peak and Kings Mountain.

    阿爾伯馬爾 (Albemarle) 繼續期望獲得銀峰 (Silver Peak) 和國王山 (Kings Mountain) 關鍵礦產生產的 45 倍稅收抵免。

  • As with [30D], some customers may be willing to pay a premium for domestic or free trade agreement lithium production.

    與[30D]一樣,一些客戶可能願意為國內或自由貿易協定的鋰生產支付溢價。

  • Finally, on the product demand side, global lithium demand remains strong, thanks to strong demand for both stationary storage and EVs. Global stationary storage battery production was up 126% year-to-date through May, with strong growth in all three major regional markets.

    最後,在產品需求方面,由於固定式儲能和電動車的需求強勁,全球鋰需求依然強勁。截至 5 月份,全球固定蓄電池產量年增 126%,三大區域市場均實現強勁成長。

  • Turning to slide 12 for more on global EV demand. 2025 EV demand growth continued its strong start, led by China, where EV sales were up 41% year-to-date.

    請翻到第 12 張投影片來了解更多有關全球電動車需求的資訊。2025 年電動車需求成長持續保持強勁勢頭,其中中國是主要市場,今年迄今中國電動車銷量成長了 41%。

  • Interestingly, Chinese BEV sales have been the strongest segment of the market, up 44% compared to PHEVs, up 38%. This is in part due to recent subsidies in China that made the net purchase price for entry-level BEVs very attractive for consumers.

    有趣的是,中國純電動車銷量一直是市場中最強勁的部分,年增 44%,而插電式混合動力車的銷量則成長了 38%。部分原因是中國最近出台的補貼政策使得入門級純電動車的淨購買價格對消費者來說非常有吸引力。

  • European EV sales continued to strengthen during the quarter, with year-to-date sales up 27% through May, thanks to a continuation of the step change in regulatory emission targets.

    由於監管排放目標的持續變化,歐洲電動車銷量在本季持續增強,截至 5 月的年初至今銷量成長了 27%。

  • The outlook in North America is less certain, particularly in the United States, due to the potential impact of tariffs and the removal of the 30D tax credit in September.

    由於關稅的潛在影響以及 9 月取消 30D 稅收抵免,北美的前景不太確定,尤其是美國。

  • North America is the smallest of the major regional markets, with approximately 10% of global EV sales, which highlights its relatively low impact on global demand today. Strength in China and Europe more than offset weakness in North America, reinforcing confidence in the industry's long-term growth potential and highlighting regional dynamics.

    北美是主要區域市場中最小的市場,約佔全球電動車銷量的 10%,凸顯了其目前對全球需求的影響相對較低。中國和歐洲的強勁表現足以抵消北美的疲軟表現,增強了人們對該行業長期成長潛力的信心,並凸顯了區域活力。

  • Turning to slide 13, we continue to expect lithium demand to be more than double from 2024 to 2030, unchanged from our previous outlook, driven primarily by stationary storage and electric vehicle demand. We are also maintaining our expected 2025 demand growth range of 15% to 40%, including the anticipated impact of tariffs announced to date and the OBBB.

    轉到第 13 張投影片,我們繼續預計從 2024 年到 2030 年,鋰需求將成長一倍以上,與我們先前的預測相同,主要受固定儲存和電動車需求的推動。我們也維持 2025 年需求成長預期範圍 15% 至 40%,其中包括迄今為止宣布的關稅和 OBBB 的預期影響。

  • Slide 14 gives more detail on expected market balances. We estimate that the lithium market has been in surplus since late '22 as high pricing in '21 and '22 led to supply expansions. At lithium pricing in excess of $70 per kilogram, effectively, every project was able to secure funding. Now, as pricing stays lower for longer, new project development has begun to slow while demand continues to be robust. Year-to-date, lithium demand growth has outstripped supply growth by nearly 20%, thanks to strong stationary storage and EV trends, and supply and supply curtailments announced over the last year.

    幻燈片 14 提供了有關預期市場平衡的更多詳細資訊。我們估計,由於 2021 年和 2022 年的高價導致供應擴張,鋰市場自 2022 年末以來一直處於過剩狀態。由於鋰的價格超過每公斤 70 美元,實際上每個項目都能夠獲得資金。現在,隨著價格長期維持在較低水平,新項目開發開始放緩,而需求則持續強勁。今年迄今,由於固定式儲能和電動車的強勁發展趨勢,以及去年宣布的供應和供應削減,鋰需求成長已超過供應成長近 20%。

  • If current pricing persists, demand growth is expected to outstrip supply growth by up to 10% per year on average between 2024 and 2030. As a result, we expect that surpluses may peak as early as this year with the market expected to be more balanced next year and potentially returning to def deficits in '27 and beyond.

    如果當前價格持續下去,預計2024年至2030年期間需求成長將平均每年超過供應成長10%。因此,我們預計盈餘可能最早在今年達到峰值,預計明年市場將更加平衡,並可能在 27 年及以後恢復赤字。

  • This analysis assumes that recent pricing of $9 per kilogram does not support most new or greenfield projects. Low-cost projects, in particular, brownfield expansions of existing low cost resources, are assumed to progress. It is also worth noting that this analysis does not include any impacts from recently announced or prospective supply curtailments in China.

    該分析假設最近每公斤 9 美元的價格無法支持大多數新項目或綠地項目。預計低成本項目,特別是現有低成本資源的棕地擴建將會取得進展。還值得注意的是,該分析不包括中國最近宣布或未來的供應削減的任何影響。

  • We remain confident in the long-term outlook of the lithium industry and the energy transition. In the meantime, we will remain patient and disciplined.

    我們對鋰產業和能源轉型的長期前景仍然充滿信心。同時,我們將保持耐心和紀律。

  • Advancing to slide 15. As we shared before, we continue to progress broad initiatives designed to maintain our long-term competitive advantages along these four pillars: optimizing our conversion network, improving cost and efficiency, reducing capital expenditures, and enhancing financial flexibility.

    前進至幻燈片 15。正如我們先前所分享的,我們將繼續推動旨在保持我們長期競爭優勢的廣泛舉措,主要圍繞以下四大支柱:優化我們的轉換網絡、提高成本和效率、減少資本支出以及增強財務靈活性。

  • We are building a culture of continuous improvement. Our results this quarter once again showcase that mindset.

    我們正在建立一種持續改進的文化。我們本季的業績再次證明了這種心態。

  • Slide 16 highlights our progress on these actions. In terms of optimizing our lithium conversion network, we started off this year targeting energy storage sales volume growth of 0% to 10%. Today we expect that to be at the high end of the range, thanks in part to record year-to-date production across our integrated conversion network, allowing for better fixed cost absorption and reduced tolling volumes.

    投影片 16 重點介紹了我們在這些行動上的進展。在優化我們的鋰轉換網路方面,我們今年的目標是將儲能銷售量增加 0% 至 10%。今天,我們預計這一數字將處於該範圍的高端,部分原因是由於我們整合轉換網路的年初至今的產量創下了紀錄,從而可以更好地吸收固定成本並減少加工量。

  • Second, we have continued to progress our cost and productivity programs. We began the year with a target of $300 million to $400 million cost and productivity improvements by year end. Today, we announced a 100% run rate against the high end of that initial range, or $400 million.

    其次,我們持續推動成本和生產力計劃。我們年初的目標是在年底實現 3 億至 4 億美元的成本和生產力改善。今天,我們宣布了該初始範圍高端的 100% 運行率,即 4 億美元。

  • Over the past quarter, we've executed projects to capture further reductions to non-headcount spending, supply chain efficiencies, and further volume improvements at key manufacturing sites. This isn't a one-time action. We're building the muscle and mindset to identify opportunities to achieve savings and efficiencies.

    在過去的一個季度,我們實施了一些項目,以進一步削減非員工支出、提高供應鏈效率以及進一步提高主要製造基地的產量。這不是一次性的行動。我們正在增強實力和思維方式,以尋找實現節約和提高效率的機會。

  • Third, we began the year targeting 2025 CapEx, down approximately 50% year-over-year. The team continues to identify additional opportunities to reduce capital expenditure by prioritizing only on the highest return, quickest payback projects, and optimizing value and project scope on existing projects. As a result, we now expect CapEx in the range of $650 million to $700 million down approximately 60% year-over-year.

    第三,我們年初設定的 2025 年資本支出目標較去年同期下降約 50%。團隊繼續尋找更多機會來減少資本支出,方法是優先考慮回報率最高、回報最快的項目,並優化現有項目的價值和項目範圍。因此,我們現在預計資本支出將在 6.5 億美元至 7 億美元之間,年減約 60%。

  • As a result of all these actions, plus our focus on enhancing financial flexibility and driving cash conversion, we initially expected to be a breakeven free cash flow for the full year. We now expect to achieve positive free cash flow.

    由於採取了所有這些行動,再加上我們專注於提高財務靈活性和推動現金轉換,我們最初預計將全年實現損益平衡的自由現金流。我們現在期望實現正的自由現金流。

  • In summary, on slide 17, Albemarle delivered solid second quarter performance while continuing to act decisively to preserve long-term growth optionality and maintain our industry-leading position through the cycle.

    總而言之,在第 17 張投影片上,Albemarle 取得了穩健的第二季業績,同時繼續果斷採取行動,以保持長期成長選擇性並在整個週期中保持行業領先地位。

  • We are maintaining our full-year 2025 company outlook considerations, building on the progress we've made to drive enterprise-wide cost improvements and achieve positive full-year free cash flow.

    我們維持對 2025 年全年公司前景的考慮,在已經取得的進展的基礎上推動整個企業的成本改進並實現全年自由現金流為正。

  • We are progressing broad-based comprehensive actions to manage controllable factors and generate value across the cycle. I am confident we are taking the necessary steps to maintain our competitive position and to capitalize on the long-term secular opportunities in our markets.

    我們正在採取廣泛的綜合行動來管理可控因素並在整個週期中創造價值。我相信我們正在採取必要措施保持我們的競爭地位並利用我們市場中的長期機會。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator to begin the Q&A portion.

    說完這些,我想將電話轉回給接線生,開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Rock Hoffman, Bank of America.

    (操作員指示)美國銀行的 Rock Hoffman。

  • Rock Hoffman - Analyst

    Rock Hoffman - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my question. Could you just go into why the 2H mix may change between a contract and spot versus where you were in Q2? And does this mix, potentially extend beyond 2025, implying less than a 50-50 split between the two in 2026?

    你好,謝謝你回答我的問題。您能否解釋為什麼與第二季度相比,下半場的組合在合約和現貨之間可能會發生變化?這種組合是否可能延續到 2025 年以後,意味著 2026 年兩者的比例將低於 50-50?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, and it's probably not that exact. I mean, it's essentially about our customer demand, right? And they draw more on contracts at a certain period and then others. Maybe it's a little different than we had forecast, but it's essentially our customers drawing more volume than we had anticipated in this quarter. And we don't -- we see it moving around between quarters, which is why we -- the comments that you see in our guidance.

    不,而且可能不是那麼準確。我的意思是,這本質上是關於我們的客戶需求,對嗎?他們在特定時期的合約中提取的資金比在其他時期的多。這可能與我們預測的有些不同,但本質上是我們的客戶在本季的銷售量超出了我們的預期。我們沒有看到它在各個季度之間波動,這就是為什麼我們——您在我們的指導下看到的評論。

  • Rock Hoffman - Analyst

    Rock Hoffman - Analyst

  • I see. And just as a quick follow up, given how volatile lithium pricing has been over the last handful of days, what numerically is your underlying assumption of flat pricing and if pricing does fall off these current levels, how much can it fall before you risk missing your low-case guidance for EBITDA and a free cash flow?

    我懂了。作為一個快速的後續問題,考慮到過去幾天鋰價的波動性,您對價格持平的基本假設在數字上是多少?如果價格確實從當前水準下跌,那麼在面臨無法達到 EBITDA 和自由現金流的低預期的風險之前,價格會下跌多少?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So we -- I mean, our guidance says that the kind of current price in that range. And we haven't -- we didn't change our view of that since it moved in the last month. So it's not something that's based on pricing that moved in the last week or weeks. It's kind of our view of where we are in the market.

    是的。所以我們——我的意思是,我們的指導表明當前價格處於該範圍內。我們沒有——自從上個月移動以來,我們對此的看法並沒有改變。因此,它不是基於過去一周或幾週內價格變動的結果。這是我們對市場現狀的看法。

  • Does that answer the question?

    這回答了問題嗎?

  • Rock Hoffman - Analyst

    Rock Hoffman - Analyst

  • Yes. I guess any numerical detail on that assumption? Is it $9 per kg for 2H, which is assumed or--?

    是的。我猜這個假設有任何數字細節嗎?2H 的價格是每公斤 9 美元嗎(這是假設的)?

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Hi, Rock, this is Neal. Yeah. As we said in the prepared remarks, and you'll see it actually on our modeling consideration slide 2. Maybe this is an important point that when -- I think some investors look at just one price in one region to calculate a market price, and that's not exactly the lithium market. So we take a basket approach here.

    是的。嗨,洛克,我是尼爾。是的。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣,您實際上會在我們的建模考慮幻燈片 2 上看到它。也許這是一個重要的觀點——我認為一些投資者只看一個地區的價格來計算市場價格,而這並不完全是鋰市場。因此我們在這裡採取一攬子方法。

  • So not only are we taking the price in China, we're taking the price in Asia, ex-China. We're also taking carbonate and hydroxide. But regardless, when you mix all of that together, basically, no matter how you slice it, it's been about $9 so far this year, and that's therefore the price effectively today, and that's what we're drawing forward as well.

    因此,我們不僅在採用中國的價格,還在採用中國以外的亞洲的價格。我們也採用了碳酸鹽和氫氧化物。但無論如何,當你把所有這些因素混合在一起時,基本上,無論你如何分割,今年到目前為止的價格都在 9 美元左右,因此這就是今天的實際價格,這也是我們所期待的。

  • Rock Hoffman - Analyst

    Rock Hoffman - Analyst

  • Understood. Thank you.

    明白了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

    大衛‧貝格萊特,德意志銀行。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Thank you, good morning. Ken, can you talk about what you're seeing from a lithium supply standpoint? How much of global supply is offline? What's happening in China vis-a-vis some of the integrated -- non-integrated producers on the spodumene side and the light side, I'm sorry. Thank you.

    謝謝,早安。肯,您能從鋰供應的角度談談您所看到的嗎?全球有多少供應處於離線狀態?對於中國鋰輝石和輕質鋰方面一些綜合性、非綜合性生產商的情況,我深感抱歉。謝謝。

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So look, we continue to think that more capacity needs to come out of the market. It doesn't -- and I don't think it's changed dramatically this quarter versus previously. There have been a couple that have come offline in in China.

    是的。因此,我們仍然認為市場需要釋放更多產能。事實並非如此——我認為本季與之前相比並沒有太大變化。在中國,有幾台已經下線。

  • It's not clear exactly why they've come offline.So we're watching that pretty closely. I'm not sure we're drawing any big conclusions from that. So -- and I don't think it's dramatically different than last quarter, really. I guess the only change is a couple of sites coming offline in China and exactly why those came off not clear.

    目前還不清楚他們下線的具體原因。因此,我們正在密切關注。我不確定我們是否能從中得出任何重大結論。所以——我並不認為這與上一季有太大的不同。我猜唯一的改變是中國有幾個網站下線了,至於具體原因還不清楚。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Got it. And just back to the pricing question. Can you talk to what you think underlies the recent pricing volatility in China over the last, call it, months that we're seeing month to five weeks here?

    知道了。回到定價問題。您能否談談您認為過去幾個月中國價格波動的根本原因,即我們看到的一個月到五週的波動?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So I'd say it's some of the uncertainty around the supply as well. So -- and government policies. And as you know, the China market is very speculative. So it -- but we're not -- we're watching that very closely, but we've not read a ton into it.

    是的。所以我想說供應方面也存在一些不確定性。所以——還有政府政策。如你所知,中國市場投機性很強。所以 — — 但我們並沒有 — — 我們正在密切關注此事,但我們還沒有深入研究。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you.

    完美的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lawrence Alexander, Jeffereys.

    勞倫斯·亞歷山大,杰弗里斯。

  • Laurence Alexander - Analyst

    Laurence Alexander - Analyst

  • Good morning. If that it takes several years to get back to tighter conditions, can you maintain free cash flow positive if we're at $9 per kilo on average in 2026, 2027, 2028 or can you walk through kind of what incremental adjustments or headwinds you would face in the next few years relative to 2025?

    早安.如果需要幾年時間才能恢復到更嚴格的條件,那麼如果我們在 2026 年、2027 年、2028 年平均每公斤 9 美元,您能否保持自由現金流為正,或者您能否介紹一下相對於 2025 年,未來幾年您將面臨哪些增量調整或阻力?

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Laurence, this is Neal. Well, look. Certainly, that is the goal of all the actions that we are taking and the things that we continue to work on going forward. Maybe just a couple of examples as we turn the page into 2026. Obviously, today, we're very happy about reporting that we hit our 100% run rate against our the high end of our cost and productivity target. So 100% of $400 million.

    是的。勞倫斯,這是尼爾。嗯,你看。當然,這是我們採取的所有行動以及我們今後繼續努力的目標。當我們翻到 2026 年的時候,也許這只是幾個例子。顯然,今天,我們非常高興地報告,我們的運行率達到了 100%,達到了成本和生產力目標的高端。所以是 4 億美元的 100%。

  • Not only are we at the high end of our range, but we're hitting that run rate six months early. So clearly, you'll get the full benefit of that as you turn into 2026. Then of course, we're also ramping our facilities as quickly as we can so that we can get the full capability out of our own facilities. And we're able then to back off on tolling and move more of our own material through our own facilities. That will be a benefit as we move into 2026.

    我們不僅處於產品範圍的高端,而且提前六個月達到了這一運行率。顯然,到 2026 年,您將會充分受益於此。當然,我們也在盡快擴大我們的設施,以便能夠充分發揮我們自己的設施的全部能力。然後我們就可以減少收費並透過我們自己的設施運輸更多我們自己的材料。當我們邁入 2026 年時,這將是一個好處。

  • And then I think, one of the key things from a free cash flow -- two key things from a free cash flow standpoint, the first is, obviously, we are in an unusual situation here in 2025, where our JV in Australia, in particular, is going through its own growth program.

    然後我認為,從自由現金流的角度來看,關鍵的事情之一——從自由現金流的角度來看,關鍵的事情有兩個,首先,顯然,我們在 2025 年處於一個不尋常的境地,特別是我們在澳大利亞的合資企業正在實施自己的增長計劃。

  • So clearly, as that one gets to the end of that growth program and dials back its capital expenditures. It all depends on where pricing goes, but obviously, that will potentially release some more cash for dividends, and we can get back to a more normal case with dividends coming from our JVs.

    顯然,隨著該公司成長計畫的結束,其資本支出也會減少。這一切都取決於定價的走向,但顯然,這可能會釋放更多的現金用於分紅,我們可以回到更正常的情況,即從合資企業獲得股息。

  • And then I just have to say in terms of our things in our own control, our own capital expenditures and the work that we've been doing already to continue to be just much more efficient about our capital spending much more stringent about which projects are moving forward and which aren't. You've seen how we've continued to whittle down our CapEx number through the year. And obviously, we're not stopping here.

    然後我只想說,就我們自己控制的事情而言,我們自己的資本支出以及我們已經在做的工作,繼續使我們的資本支出更加高效,對哪些項目可以推進、哪些項目不能推進更加嚴格。您已經看到,我們全年如何持續削減資本支出數字。顯然,我們不會就此止步。

  • We're going to continue to look at the book of projects and continue to work on that. And that could potentially be something that I think we can hold this kind of CapEx level at least for another year, if not longer, depending on how market conditions develop.

    我們將繼續研究專案手冊並繼續進行工作。我認為,我們可以將這種資本支出水準維持至少一年,甚至更長時間,這取決於市場狀況的發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Roberts, Mizuho.

    瑞穗的約翰羅伯茲。

  • John Roberts - Analyst

    John Roberts - Analyst

  • Thank you. At the current capital spending level, do you fall back to flat lithium volumes here at some point in the next few quarters? Or what's your volume growth outlook?

    謝謝。在目前的資本支出水準下,未來幾季的某個時候鋰產量是否會回落至持平狀態?或是您的銷量成長前景如何?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • No. So John, so I think we -- I mean, the investments that we've made and the programs that are -- of that are still going forward around that give us growth for period of time, but eventually, right, we run out of that, but it's not the next few quarters, it's years, not quarters.

    不。約翰,所以我認為我們——我的意思是,我們所做的投資和正在進行的項目——仍然在繼續,這將在一段時間內給我們帶來增長,但最終,我們會用完這些,但這不是接下來的幾個季度,而是幾年,而不是幾個季度。

  • John Roberts - Analyst

    John Roberts - Analyst

  • Great, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Deckelbaum, Cowen.

    大衛‧德克爾鮑姆,考恩。

  • David Deckelbaum - Analyst

    David Deckelbaum - Analyst

  • Yeah. Can just kind of ask two questions on growth. Just one is, and Neal, maybe you can chime in as well. But the -- obviously, the spend that you guys have rationalized this year, you go into next year, you're finishing up some growth projects, obviously, in Australia. Should volume growth -- is it solely going to be coming from Greenbushes in as you think of like the broader corporate portfolio?

    是的。可以問兩個關於成長的問題嗎?只有一個,尼爾,也許你也可以加入。但是,顯然,你們今年已經合理化了支出,到了明年,你們顯然將在澳洲完成一些成長項目。交易量成長是否應該僅僅來自 Greenbushes,就像您想到的更廣泛的公司投資組合一樣?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, I think we've got -- we'll it's not going to be just Greenbushes, it's probably the biggest -- that's the biggest piece of it. But we have capacity at Wagina and the (inaudible) Atacama as we ramp the Salar yield project. There's still -- there's a bit more to come there. So -- and look, we try at every asset, both conversion and mine standpoint to gain productivity in both cost but also in molecules on every asset all the time.

    不,我認為我們已經得到了——我們不會只是格林布什,它可能是最大的——這是其中最大的一部分。但隨著我們擴大鹽沼產量項目,我們在瓦吉納和(聽不清楚)阿塔卡馬擁有產能。還有──還有更多的事情要做。所以——你看,我們嘗試從每項資產的轉換和礦山角度來提高每項資產的成本和分子生產力。

  • So it's not just Greenbushes, that's the biggest piece because that's the one big investment that will come on. But it's broader than that.

    所以這不僅僅是 Greenbushes,這是最大的一塊,因為這是一項即將發生的大投資。但它的意義比這更廣泛。

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Maybe, David, just to add to that, too, is -- obviously, lithium, those are the larger assets and bigger pounds. So you kind of tend to focus on that. But I do want to highlight that we are still pushing out incremental pounds from specialties. And in the prepared remarks, we talked about one example of that in Jordan, where we've started up a project that has great financial and environmental benefits. But it also is pushing out more pounds incrementally.

    是的。也許,大衛,我還要補充一點──顯然,鋰是更大的資產,也是更大的英鎊。所以你傾向於關注這一點。但我確實想強調的是,我們仍在不斷從專業領域中增加投資。在準備好的演講中,我們談到了約旦的一個例子,我們在那裡啟動了一個具有巨大經濟和環境效益的計畫。但它也在逐步增加體重。

  • So I think there are a few different avenues across the company where you'll continue to see growth.

    因此我認為,公司可以透過幾種不同的途徑繼續成長。

  • David Deckelbaum - Analyst

    David Deckelbaum - Analyst

  • I appreciate that, Neal. Maybe you can talk a little bit just about the cash deleveraging opportunities beyond the $440,000 that's coming due in the fourth quarter this year. How should we think about how you're approaching the balance sheet in '26 is considering the cash balance that you have, but then also if we're going to stay in this sort of $9,000 a tonne reference range. How do you think about the next goals in the balance sheet and pushes and pulls in '26 and '27?

    我很感激,尼爾。也許您可以稍微談談今年第四季到期的 44 萬美元以外的現金去槓桿機會。我們應該如何考慮您在 26 年如何處理資產負債表,既要考慮您擁有的現金餘額,也要考慮我們是否要保持在每噸 9,000 美元的參考範圍內。您如何看待 2026 年和 2027 年資產負債表的下一個目標和推動因素?

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, thanks for that question. Look, I think we've been very consistent that across the cycle we're targeting a leverage ratio of 2.5 times or less. We're very happy to be there at 2.3x as we exited the second quarter. But we are at the bottom of the quarter -- or sorry, bottom of the cycle.And so clearly, we've made deleveraging really our -- one of our top capital allocation priorities.

    是的,謝謝你的提問。看起來,我認為我們一直非常一致,在整個週期中,我們的目標是將槓桿率控制在 2.5 倍或更低。我們很高興在第二季結束時達到了 2.3 倍。但我們正處於本季的底部——或者抱歉,是周期的底部。因此,顯然,我們已將去槓桿化作為我們資本配置的首要任務之一。

  • And so -- the first thing that I, of course, want to address is the maturity that we have in November, and hopefully, we did that with our remarks today. As we look forward, I think we'll -- we are studying that. It's a little early for me to say exactly what our plans are around that. Other than to say deleveraging does remain a top priority for us, mainly because I want to make sure, as you said, if pricing is going to stay at this level lower for longer then it behooves us to just make sure we strengthen the balance sheet and we're prepared for that.

    所以——我當然想談的第一件事就是我們在 11 月所表現出的成熟度,希望我們今天的演講能夠做到這一點。展望未來,我想我們正在研究這個問題。現在我說我們在這方面的具體計劃還為時過早。除了說去槓桿仍然是我們的首要任務之外,主要是因為我想確保,正如你所說,如果價格要在這個較低水平上維持更長時間,那麼我們就應該確保我們加強資產負債表,並為此做好準備。

  • David Deckelbaum - Analyst

    David Deckelbaum - Analyst

  • Thanks for the responses.

    感謝您的回覆。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Josh Spector, UBS.

    瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hi, good morning, It's [Chris Perrella] on for Josh. Could you just walk through the puts and takes of the energy storage margins going into the third quarter and then going into the fourth quarter, the assumptions there? And with the pull forward on volume, have you sold out, maxed out your contract tons in the first half of the year, and that would imply the balance of the year is mostly spot?

    大家好,早安,我是 [Chris Perrella],為 Josh 播報。您能否簡單介紹一下第三季和第四季能源儲存利潤的變化以及其中的假設?隨著交易量的提前,你們在上半年是否已經售罄、用完了合約噸位,這是否意味著今年的剩餘時間主要是現貨?

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Chris, this is Neal. I'm happy to start on that question. So let me answer the back end of your question first. No, we haven't maxed out the contract volumes. Really, what we saw in the first half of the year is, as Kent mentioned, we just saw a heavier demand on our contracts in the first half of the year, and that's where we got a little bit better mix than we expected.

    克里斯,這是尼爾。我很高興開始回答這個問題。那麼讓我先回答一下你的問題的後端。不,我們還沒有達到合約限額。事實上,正如肯特所提到的那樣,我們在上半年看到的情況是,我們的合約需求在上半年有所增加,因此我們的組合比我們預期的要好一些。

  • As we look -- additionally, by the way, I should say that -- and we mentioned this in our prepared remarks, we had some spodumene sales that we expected to ship in June, and they just -- quite frankly, they just tipped over into the third quarter.

    順便說一下,另外,我應該說,我們在準備好的發言中提到了這一點,我們有一些鋰輝石銷售,預計將在 6 月發貨,而且它們——坦率地說,它們剛剛進入第三季度。

  • So they have shipped now in July. So that's really another part of the mix. If you think about the puts and takes for the balance of the year, now this is -- I'm saying this here in July, a lot of things could change. But as we look at the order book today, what we're seeing is probably a softer demand on those contracts in the third quarter. So to your point, you'll probably see a little bit more spot mix from a mix perspective in the third quarter.

    所以他們現在已經在七月出貨了。所以這實際上是混合的另一部分。如果你考慮今年剩下的收益和利弊,那麼現在——我在七月就說過,很多事情可能會改變。但當我們今天查看訂單時,我們發現第三季對這些合約的需求可能會減弱。因此,就您的觀點而言,從混合角度來看,您可能會在第三季看到更多的現貨組合。

  • And then we're seeing a little bit stronger demand from a contract perspective coming into the fourth quarter. So that's how you should think about things maybe across the back end of the year. But look, it's July, things can move around. They have moved around as you've seen already for the first half of the year, but that's the best visibility we have right now.

    然後,從合約角度來看,我們看到第四季的需求有所增強。所以你應該這樣考慮今年年底的事情。但是,現在已是七月,事情可能會改變。正如您在上半年已經看到的那樣,它們已經四處移動,但這是我們目前所擁有的最佳可見性。

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And I'll just let me add to that just because it is mix, not like our contracts are satisfied in the first half. That's definitely not the case. It's mixed. So it's moved around a little bit.We expect to see it really in between second and third quarter and then fourth should be more traditional.

    是的。我只是想補充一點,因為它是混合的,並不像我們的合約在上半年就得到滿足。事實絕對不是這樣的。它是混合的。所以它稍微移動了一下。我們預計它會在第二季和第三季之間真正看到,然後第四季應該會更加傳統。

  • Joshua Spector - Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Analyst

  • And then just a follow-up, the feedstock costs. You were expected to get slammed with that in the second quarter. Is that now going to hit in the third quarter or there was higher cost spodumene that you had to work through? Is that not the case anymore? Or what's -- I guess, what's depressing the margin even more in the third quarter?

    接下來是原料成本。預計你會在第二季遭受重創。這是否會在第三季產生影響,或者是否存在需要您解決的更高成本的鋰輝石問題?現在情況不再如此了嗎?或者是什麼——我猜,是什麼導致第三季的利潤率進一步下降?

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Chris, the way it's worked out. I think we did work a little bit of it in the second quarter. But yes, you're right. It's primarily more of it's going to get worked off in the third quarter just based on how the inventory is flowing through the system.

    是的。克里斯,事情就是這樣解決的。我認為我們在第二季度確實做了一些工作。但是的,你是對的。主要是由於庫存在系統中的流動情況,所以第三季會有更多的庫存得到解決。

  • Joshua Spector - Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc CM.

    Aleksey Yefremov,KeyBanc CM。

  • Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

    Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on the second half guidance. Can we just think about this as the basis from the run rate for next year? Or is the mix maybe not representative it's not rich enough because it doesn't have enough LTAs in it. So really, a question about second half as the basis to think about next year's EBITDA?

    謝謝。早安.我只是想跟進下半年的指導。我們能否將其視為明年運行率的基礎?或者這種組合可能不具有代表性,不夠豐富,因為其中沒有足夠的長期協議。那麼,實際上,關於下半年作為考慮明年 EBITDA 的基礎的問題是什麼?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I think you're reading too much into it. So it's mix between customers moving back and forth and our -- it's kind of about -- we said about 50% of our mix now has got long-term agreements with floors. And that will be the case going into -- and there -- we do have a couple of contracts that run off in '26. But as we've said before, we don't really expect those to run out. We'll negotiate those and extend those.That's our expectation. So I think I wouldn't get carried away between the first half, second half. The mix is going to be the same and it moves around by quarter.

    是的。我認為你對此想太多了。因此,這是客戶來回流動的情況,我們的 — — 大約是 — — 我們說,現在大約 50% 的客戶已經與各樓層簽訂了長期協議。情況就是這樣——我們確實有幾份合約將在 26 年到期。但正如我們之前所說,我們並不真的希望這些資源會用完。我們將就此進行協商並延長期限。這是我們的期望。所以我認為我不會在上半場和下半場之間忘乎所以。組合將保持不變,並且按季度變動。

  • Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

    Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And I think I remember earlier before you revised your CapEx lower for this year, you were signaling there would be additional opportunities to lower CapEx next year. Did you pull those opportunities forward? Or could you bring CapEx down even more after you just stepped it down?

    好的。這很有幫助。我想我記得早些時候,在您下調今年的資本支出之前,您曾暗示明年還會有更多機會降低資本支出。您是否抓住了這些機會?或者在您下台後,您是否可以進一步降低資本支出?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So look, we're pretty -- we're focused on CapEx and operating costs, and we're focused on all of those pieces. I think you see us working across that portfolio to drive cost out of the business includes CapEx. So we're not going to say what the CapEx rate will be next year, but we're very focused on it.

    所以看,我們非常——我們專注於資本支出和營運成本,我們專注於所有這些部分。我想你會看到我們正在透過整個投資組合來降低業務成本,包括資本支出。因此,我們不會透露明年的資本支出率是多少,但我們非常關注它。

  • Our goal would be to drive it down, but we're going to -- we've got to see exactly what those are as we go into planning for next year, but we've adjusted our forecast for this year. And we have a pretty good track record of hitting those when that's the case. And then we're very focused on driving that out.

    我們的目標是將其降低,但是我們將——我們必須在製定明年的計劃時確切地了解這些數字,但我們已經調整了對今年的預測。當這種情況出現時,我們都有很好的記錄來實現這些目標。然後我們就會非常專注於解決這個問題。

  • But there is a -- we're getting close to the level where -- it's hard to take big jump. It's getting to be smaller pieces as we go, but we continue to be focused on that.

    但是,我們已經接近了難以實現巨大飛躍的水平。隨著我們的進展,它變得越來越小,但我們仍將繼續關注這一點。

  • Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

    Aleksey Yefremov - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot, Kent.

    非常感謝,肯特。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joel Jackson, BMO.

    喬爾傑克遜,BMO。

  • Joel Jackson - Equity Analyst

    Joel Jackson - Equity Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Your our JV partner at one of your JV partner has (inaudible) talked about first ore at CCP3 end of the year, not first concentrate is a bit of a nuance there. But is that right? Are we not expecting really any volumes now into early even early to mid-'26. So what's your thoughts there?

    嗨,早安。你們的合資夥伴之一(聽不清楚)談到了年底 CCP3 的第一批礦石,而不是第一批精礦,這有點微妙。但這是真的嗎?我們難道不期待 26 年初甚至 26 年中期會出現任何銷售嗎?那你的想法是什麼?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I would say it's probably -- before we start seeing volume there, it's going to be '26 -- or I'd say early in probably maybe not day one, but early in '26.

    是的。我想說,在我們開始看到交易量之前,可能是在 26 年,或者可能是在 2026 年初,也許不是第一天,而是在 2026 年初。

  • Joel Jackson - Equity Analyst

    Joel Jackson - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And then also a bit of a different question. We obviously saw what happened with MP Materials over the last month or so. We know the DOE has been out there with programs, DoD has money. Lithium is not reverse. But looking at Kings Mountain, is that a project that is strategic to the US to the point where (inaudible) want to start doing due diligence with different government organizations trying to get the profile of that project up and maybe trying to look at a way to be something like an MP Materials' importance for the country.

    好的。然後還有一個稍微不同的問題。我們顯然看到了過去一個月左右 MP Materials 發生的事情。我們知道能源部一直在推行相關計劃,國防部也有資金。鋰是不可逆的。但看看國王山,這是一個對美國具有戰略意義的項目,以至於(聽不清楚)想要開始與不同的政府組織進行盡職調查,試圖提高該項目的知名度,並可能試圖尋找一種方法來成為像 MP Materials 這樣的項目對國家的重要性。

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So I would say, look, we're encouraged by the focus that the Trump administration has put on critical minerals. As you say, rare earth is at the very top of their list, but lithium is something that they're looking at as well. We've been saying for some time to build out a US full supply chain, primarily conversion as well you need public private partnerships.

    是的。所以我想說,看,川普政府對關鍵礦產的關注令我們感到鼓舞。正如你所說,稀土是他們最重視的資源,但鋰也是他們正在關注的資源。我們一直在說,要建立美國完整的供應鏈,主要是轉換,就需要公私部門合作。

  • And it's interesting to see government moving on something like MP Materials to do exactly that in the rare earth space. So -- and we've been talking with the government for some time about the need for those type of things. So we think it's encouraging. We like the focus that the government is putting on critical minerals, and we're very happy to have conversations about it.

    有趣的是,政府正在推動 MP Materials 等項目,在稀土領域實現這一目標。所以——我們已經與政府討論了一段時間關於這類事情的必要性。因此我們認為這是令人鼓舞的。我們喜歡政府對關鍵礦產的關注,我們很高興就此進行討論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

  • Vincent Andrews - Analyst

    Vincent Andrews - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. Just wanted to ask on the mix. Is there a production geography aspect of it too? In other words, do your contracts skew a little bit more towards Atacama volume or are they evenly split geographically in your production facilities?

    謝謝。早安.只是想問一下混音。其中是否也涉及生產地理方面?換句話說,你們的合約是否更偏向阿塔卡馬產量,還是依生產設施的地理位置均勻分佈?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So, Yeah, I would say that -- I mean, it's it's split around, right? It's not exactly in one location. All of our contracts pretty much are Western with Western players. Now that doesn't talk about the facility that it comes from or actually where the ship to location is necessarily. But almost all of our long-term agreements are with Western players.

    所以,是的,我想說——我的意思是,它是分裂的,對吧?它並不完全位於一個位置。我們所有的合約幾乎都是西方的,與西方球員簽訂的。現在,我們並沒有談論貨物來自哪個設施,或貨物實際到達的地點。但我們幾乎所有的長期協議都是與西方公司簽訂的。

  • Vincent Andrews - Analyst

    Vincent Andrews - Analyst

  • Okay. And as a follow-up, obviously, a nice job reducing the CapEx. Could you just give us a sense of most recent reduction, what is that coming out of? And also, do you have an updated maintenance CapEx number for us now that the CapEx numbers move lower again?

    好的。作為後續行動,顯然,減少資本支出是一項很好的工作。您能否向我們介紹一下最近的減幅情況,具體是什麼情況?另外,既然現在資本支出數字再次下降,您能提供給我們更新的維護資本支出數字嗎?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So we're not giving guidance on maintenance versus growth capital, but it's coming out of a lot of small places, right? It's just focused on capital, pushing things out, tightening things up. And as we get into planning for next year, then maybe we can give you a little bit more detail on that. But at this point, we've lowered our guidance this year, and we would anticipate continuing to drive capital out of the plan. But it's getting harder, I would say.

    是的。因此,我們不會提供有關維護資本與成長資本的指導,但它來自許多小地方,對嗎?它只是專注於資本、推動事物、收緊事物。當我們開始規劃明年的時候,也許我們可以為您提供更多細節。但目前,我們已下調了今年的預期,我們預計將繼續從該計劃中抽出資金。但我想說,這變得越來越難了。

  • Vincent Andrews - Analyst

    Vincent Andrews - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you very much.

    好的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.

    奧本海默的科林·拉什。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Thanks so much. I guess I have a two-part question. One, thinking about the government involvement with market dynamics on critical materials. Have you seen any indication that they might start setting pricing in the market? And then a secondary question is around refining capacity and technology. You guys had been kind of adjacent or involved in a project around dry processing. I just want to get an update on how you guys are thinking about potential technology evolution around some of that conversion of refining process technology in North America?

    非常感謝。我想我的問題分為兩個部分。一、思考政府對關鍵材料市場動態的參與。您是否看到任何跡象表明他們可能開始在市場上定價?第二個問題是關於煉油能力和技術。你們曾經有過類似的或參與過乾式加工的計畫。我只是想了解一下你們對於北美煉油製程技術轉變的潛在技術發展有何看法?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. So I guess, I mean, it's two quite different questions. So the first around government involvement and pricing. So we're not -- we don't see that. They've not really been involved in that.

    好的。所以我猜,我的意思是,這是兩個完全不同的問題。因此,首先要考慮政府參與和定價。所以我們沒有——我們沒有看到這一點。他們實際上並未參與其中。

  • I guess, the closest thing you'd see is the MP Materials deal is they've done purchases from a DoD standpoint. They did set a price for that, but that's -- I don't see that as getting involved in the market. So we don't really see that or we haven't seen that. And then on the technology, I'm not exactly sure. We look at process chemistry as a key advantage for us in conversion. But that includes like DLE, which is probably the biggest focus we have on on new technology. But it's also streamlining the technology that we have in our hard rock conversion assets.

    我想,您看到的最接近的事情是 MP Materials 交易是他們從國防部的角度進行的採購。他們確實為此設定了價格,但那——我不認為那是介入市場。所以我們實際上沒有看到這一點,或者說我們還沒有看到這一點。至於技術方面,我不太確定。我們認為製程化學是我們轉化的關鍵優勢。但其中包括 DLE,這可能是我們在新技術上最關注的重點。但它也簡化了我們硬石轉換資產的技術。

  • I'm not sure what the dry comment was, what technology that is around dry processing because I'm not familiar with that.

    我不確定乾燥評論是什麼,以及與乾燥處理相關的技術是什麼,因為我對此不熟悉。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Yeah. That was a process that Tesla was working on in and around the same internal facility where they were doing that with a different close at system. But I can take that offline. I guess the follow-up question here is around China policy. You guys have gone through a number of policy cycles around EVs. And obviously, that government is focused on short-term sales historically than following up with incremental policy adjustments to kind of maintain market integrity.

    是的。這是特斯拉在同一內部設施內外進行的一項工作,他們使用不同的關閉系統進行這項工作。但我可以將其離線。我想接下來的問題是關於中國政策的。你們已經經歷了多個有關電動車的政策週期。顯然,政府歷來注重短期銷售,而不是採取漸進式政策調整來維護市場完整性。

  • Can you just give us an update on your current thoughts on the evolution of the EV policy in China and how you see that evolving over the next two to three years.

    您能否向我們介紹一下您目前對中國電動車政策演變的看法,以及您認為未來兩到三年該政策將如何發展。

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So I mean look, you're -- I mean, you're right in it. You see them making adjustments and incentives. I think those are around the edges. The broader policy is -- I think it's a key technology for the Chinese.

    是的。所以我的意思是,你看,你——我的意思是,你就在裡面。您會看到他們做出調整和激勵。我認為那些都在邊緣。更廣泛的政策是——我認為這是中國的關鍵技術。

  • They see it as a way to on a segment and do an export to the world around that. So they've spent a lot of time in development on R&D all the way through the value chain from EVs and batteries, cathode even the lithium supply chain.

    他們將其視為一種進入特定領域並向周邊世界出口產品的方式。因此,他們在整個價值鏈(從電動車和電池、陰極甚至鋰供應鏈)的研發上投入了大量時間。

  • So I think they see it as a strategic segment for them as a way to export materials from China and create more jobs in China. And then a lot of what you see on the increment around incentives for EVs, I think it's just trying to balance activity and what's happening around that. I don't read that much into those -- those are short-term incentive programs. But I think long term, they see it as a strategic segment.

    因此我認為他們將其視為一個戰略環節,是從中國出口材料並在中國創造更多就業機會的一種方式。然後,你所看到的有關電動車激勵措施的大量增加,我認為這只是試圖平衡活動和圍繞它發生的事情。我對此沒有進行過多解讀——這些只是短期激勵計劃。但我認為從長遠來看,他們將其視為一個戰略部分。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Great thanks so much guys.

    太好了,非常感謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Kallo, Baird.

    本卡洛,貝爾德。

  • Ben Kallo - Analyst

    Ben Kallo - Analyst

  • Sorry about that. You talked about contract renewals for things that roll off next year. And I'm just wondering like from your customer perspective, how contracts are structured with the current price is that. My second question is on the prepayment that you guys got, I think, last quarter. How is that contract versus what's out there right now? Because I have a prepaid data (inaudible) it's at cheaper prices, if they're good to prepay?

    很抱歉。您談到了明年續約的問題。我只是想知道,從客戶的角度來看,合約是如何根據當前價格構建的。我的第二個問題是關於你們上個季度收到的預付款。該合約與目前的合約相比如何?因為我有預付費數據(聽不清楚),所以價格比較便宜,預付費合適嗎?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. So Ben, that was a little bit unclear. So you were asking about the contract structures and then the prepayment. So I think that there's two different things, right? I don't think you would -- our traditional customers or people through -- in the value chain. The prepayment is kind of was a unique deal that we did. I don't see that changing our overall contract structure overall. And maybe Eric can comment on how -- I think you were asking how our customers are seeing our contract structure versus spot market?

    好的。所以本,這有點不清楚。所以您問的是合約結構和預付款。所以我認為這是兩件不同的事情,對嗎?我不認為你會——我們的傳統客戶或價值鏈中的人們。預付款是我們採取的一種獨特交易。我不認為這會改變我們的整體合約結構。也許 Eric 可以評論一下——我想您問的是我們的客戶如何看待我們的合約結構與現貨市場?

  • Ben Kallo - Analyst

    Ben Kallo - Analyst

  • When you renew next year, like how they're viewing current prices and restructuring the contracts?

    當您明年續約時,他們如何看待當前價格並重組合約?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • We have an active pipeline process where we're -- for existing customers and potentially looking out three, four years, just as we traditionally have done. Admittedly, in the low price environment, we had slowed that a bit, but we're seeing renewed interest as OEMs look towards the end of the decade and have their own calculus around how they see supply playing out that they want the security.

    我們有一個活躍的通路流程,針對現有客戶,並可能著眼於未來三、四年,就像我們傳統上所做的那樣。無可否認,在低價環境下,我們已經放慢了速度,但我們看到人們重新燃起了興趣,因為原始設備製造商著眼於本世紀末,並對如何看待供應問題有自己的考量,他們希望獲得安全性。

  • With two contracts that towards it's about -- yeah, one or two contracts that towards the end of next year, come off. Both of those were in discussions at various stages with those two customers to get to extend them or to renew or enter into new contracts.

    有兩份合約即將到期——是的,其中一兩份合約將於明年年底到期。兩家公司都與這兩個客戶進行了不同階段的討論,以延長合約期限、續約合約或簽訂新合約。

  • The structures are going to be similar to what we've done in the past. They're going to be exposed to the market, but there's also some measures of protection that we're looking at for ourselves and security, obviously, that the customer is looking at for themselves. So more to come. But that's a part of our ongoing process.

    這些結構將與我們過去所做的類似。他們將會接觸到市場,但我們也在為自己尋找一些保護措施,顯然,客戶也在為自己尋找安全措施。未來還會有更多。但這是我們正在進行的進程的一部分。

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And Ben, this is Neal. If I can just circle back to your prepayment. I think what I was hearing is you were asking something about the price that kind of underlies the prepayment. I just want to highlight, and we said this when we when we struck the deal back in the first quarter. It's market indexed. So I don't -- I couldn't quite hear your question.It sounded like you were asking if it was outside of the market. It is the way the mechanics work is it's linked to the market.

    本,這是尼爾。我可以再回到您的預付款問題。我想我聽到的是你正在詢問有關預付款所依據的價格的問題。我只是想強調一下,我們在第一季達成協議時就說過這一點。它是市場指數化的。所以我不懂──我聽不太清楚你的問題。聽起來你是在問它是否在市場之外。機械運作的方式是與市場連結的。

  • Ben Kallo - Analyst

    Ben Kallo - Analyst

  • Okay. And you guys had the grace, I think you said early redemption -- and that's a good lever for the balance sheet. Is there anything else like dividend or anything else like if we stretch the '27 were like the chart shows pricing still where it is or there's excess supply -- are there other levers like the dividend or anything else that you could pull for cash?

    好的。你們很有風度,我想你們說的是提前贖回——這對資產負債表來說是一個很好的槓桿。還有其他東西嗎?例如股息或其他東西嗎?如果我們將 27 年延長一段時間,就像圖表顯示價格仍然在原地或供應過剩一樣,還有其他槓桿嗎?例如股息或其他可以用來獲取現金的東西嗎?

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, Ben, I mean -- this is Neal again. That's exactly what we're working on every day here is we are constantly pulling on all of these different levers, whether that is CapEx, whether that's cost savings, whether that's productivity measures, pumping more volume out of our plants, so we get better fixed cost absorption.

    嗯,本,我的意思是──這又是尼爾。這正是我們每天所做的事情,我們不斷地利用所有這些不同的槓桿,無論是資本支出,無論是成本節約,無論是生產力措施,從我們的工廠中抽出更多的產量,以便我們更好地吸收固定成本。

  • So the simplest answer to your question is, yes, there are definitely additional levers that we keep working on to make sure that we can generate a strong cash performance. In this case, we had a unique moment where we were able to do the PIC redemption. But this just highlights that we're looking at all kinds of things that we'll work on.

    因此,對於您的問題,最簡單的答案是:是的,我們肯定會繼續努力利用其他手段來確保我們能夠產生強勁的現金表現。在這種情況下,我們有一個獨特的時刻,我們能夠進行 PIC 兌換。但這只是強調了我們正在研究各種我們將要進行的工作。

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Traditional and nontraditional. But we're pretty --

    傳統與非傳統。但我們很漂亮--

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • I think the message we want to leave is that we're pretty focused on it. Yeah.

    我認為我們想要傳達的訊息是,我們非常關注這一點。是的。

  • Ben Kallo - Analyst

    Ben Kallo - Analyst

  • Thank you very much, guys.

    非常感謝你們,夥伴們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

    阿倫·維斯瓦納坦(RBC)。

  • Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

    Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

  • Sorry about that. Thanks for taking my question. Hope you guys are well. Yeah. I just wanted to ask about the guidance as well. It looks like midpoint of your scenarios still about $900 million, which kind of implies a pretty low EBITDA level for the second half. Could you just walk through some of those dynamics, I guess, on the pricing and volume assumption side? Or is there -- yes, if you'd add anything else as well? Thanks.

    很抱歉。感謝您回答我的問題。希望你們一切都好。是的。我只是想問指導。看起來您的情景的中點仍然在 9 億美元左右,這意味著下半年的 EBITDA 水平相當低。您能否從定價和銷售假設方面簡單介紹一下其中的一些動態?或者還有——是的,您是否還想添加其他內容?謝謝。

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Arun, this is Neal. I can start and if others would like to add on. It really is -- I hate to be repetitive, but it kind of goes back to some of the things that we said on the Q&A.

    阿倫,這是尼爾。我可以開始,如果其他人願意的話可以添加。確實如此——我不想重複,但這有點像我們在問答環節中所說的一些事情。

  • It really is a mix effect as we kind of move through the quarters of the year. I think, the important thing to start with is we are still hanging on to those modeling guidance ranges even though pricing has dribbled down in the first half of the year, we still -- if we draw the pricing across for the rest of the year, we're still holding on to that range because of all the things that we're working on.

    隨著我們度過一年中的幾個季度,這確實是一種混合效應。我認為,首先重要的是,儘管價格在今年上半年有所下降,但我們仍然堅持這些模型指導範圍,如果我們將今年剩餘時間的價格拉長,我們仍然會堅持這個範圍,因為我們正在努力做好所有事情。

  • But yes, just the way things have worked out, we've just seen stronger demand on our energy storage contracts in the first half of the year as we move through the back end -- back half of the year. We'll see some of that not quite as strong. But really, it's just been that some of the volume has been more in the first half than it has been in the second half. It's really nothing more than that. And then outside of that, in terms of things in our control, we have been going much faster on our cost and productivity actions.

    但是,是的,事情的發展就是如此,隨著我們進入下半年,我們看到上半年對我們的能源儲存合約的需求更加強勁。我們會看到其中一些不那麼強勁。但實際上,上半年的交易量比下半年的多。確實僅此而已。除此之外,就我們能控制的事情而言,我們在成本和生產力行動方面的進展速度要快得多。

  • We've been ramping our plants I'd say, even better than what we expected. So it's really the confluence of all those things that lets us even in this low-price environment to hang on to those ranges.

    我想說,我們一直在擴大工廠規模,甚至比我們預期的還要好。因此,所有這些因素的共同作用使得我們即使在低價環境下也能保持這些範圍。

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And just -- and reiterate on that, I mean, the price has moved down from when we were doing this at the beginning of the year, and we've held on to those ranges even at this price range. So it's the second half of our book of business is roughly exposed to the spot market. And so as that drifts down, it gets more difficult and the actions are offsetting that. So that's how I would describe it.

    是的。而且——重申一下,我的意思是,價格已經從我們年初這樣做的時候下降了,即使在這個價格範圍內,我們也堅持這些範圍。因此,我們的業務的後半部分大致面向現貨市場。因此,隨著這種情況的減少,情況會變得更加困難,而行動正在抵消這種情況。這就是我的描述。

  • Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

    Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

  • Okay. Apologies if I missed this earlier. You mentioned that you do think more capacity could come offline. I guess what do you expect to see there over the next six to nine months? How much of capacity to say, uneconomic? And are there any further comments on inventory levels that you could share as well?

    好的。如果我之前錯過了這一點,請見諒。您提到您確實認為會有更多產能下線。我猜你希望在接下來的六到九個月裡在那裡看到什麼?多少容量可以說不經濟?關於庫存水平,您還有什麼可以分享的進一步評論嗎?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So look, we're not going to speculate on who might come offline. I mean that would be complete speculation. So -- but we do know people are under a lot of pressure out there and the ones you would look at are people that are -- have one asset. That's the only way they're generating cash and they're not generating cash now.

    是的。所以,我們不會猜測誰可能會下線。我的意思是那完全是猜測。所以——但我們確實知道人們承受著很大的壓力,而你所關注的是那些擁有一項資產的人。這是他們產生現金的唯一方式,但現在他們卻沒有產生現金。

  • So if they are or start-ups that are trying to start up and are not getting the revenue when they anticipated. So those are probably the ones that I would look at, but we're not going to speculate on who might come out.

    因此,如果他們是或正在嘗試啟動但未按預期獲得收入的初創企業。所以這些可能是我要考慮的,但我們不會猜測誰會出現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research.

    凱文·麥卡錫(Kevin McCarthy),垂直研究公司。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This is Matt Hawler on for Kevin McCarthy. To maybe frame the supply question in a different way. Where would you estimate that global lithium operating rates were in the second quarter? And where do you think they would need to be to restore pricing power in a sustainable way?

    這是馬特霍勒 (Matt Hawler),取代凱文麥卡錫 (Kevin McCarthy)。也許可以用不同的方式來表達供給問題。您估計第二季全球鋰業開工率是多少?您認為他們需要在哪些方面才能以可持續的方式恢復定價權?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So look, we know on a convert hard rock conversion in China, operating rates are about 50%. So there's way excess capacity in conversion. So then it brings it back to the resource. And that's what we talk about people coming offline. So I'm not sure we -- what the operating rates are, I mean they're pretty high. And people are -- they and that's how you kind of operate mines. They need to operate that way. Otherwise, they become big problems from a cash standpoint.

    我們知道,在中國,硬石轉換的開工率約為 50%。因此,轉換過程中存在著產能過剩的情況。然後它將其帶回資源。這就是我們談論的人們下線的情況。所以我不確定我們的營運率是多少,我的意思是它們相當高。人們就是這樣——他們就是這樣操作礦山的。他們需要以那種方式運作。否則,從現金角度來看,它們就會變成大問題。

  • So conversion has a very -- hard rock conversion -- and that's all pretty much in China. That's a known figure. It's about a 50% rate. So there's a significant overcapacity there. That means you need to look at the resource and those are probably operating pretty high.

    因此,轉變是一種非常艱難的轉變,而且基本上都在中國發生。這是一個已知數字。比率大約是 50%。因此那裡存在嚴重的產能過剩。這意味著您需要查看資源,並且這些資源的運行速度可能相當高。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Okay. And then -- regarding your lithium demand forecast, you left unchanged at 15% to 40% for this year. And given that more than half of the year is in the books, why did you decide to leave the estimate so broad? Other than tariffs, what's driving the uncertainty in that you didn't feel comfortable narrowing that range?

    好的。然後 - 關於您對鋰需求的預測,您將維持今年 15% 至 40% 不變。鑑於今年已經過去了一半以上,為什麼您決定將估計範圍如此廣泛?除了關稅之外,還有哪些因素導致了這種不確定性,導致您不願意縮小這個範圍?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • There's a lot of -- I mean there's a lot of uncertainty. I mean tariffs are part of it. You got regulation in multiple jurisdictions around that. So US has been a little weaker. Europe and China has been stronger. So that was our forecast at the beginning of the year. And with all of the uncertainty that we saw, frankly, none of that uncertainty has gone away. It may have broaden a little bit. But given the environment we're in, that's a forecast that we see.

    有很多——我的意思是有很多不確定性。我的意思是關稅是其中的一部分。多個司法管轄區都對此進行了監管。因此美國已經變得有點弱了。歐洲和中國變得更強大。這就是我們年初的預測。儘管我們看到了許多不確定性,但坦白說,這些不確定性並沒有消失。它可能已經稍微寬了一點。但考慮到我們所處的環境,這是我們看到的預測。

  • It's been -- and it's been puts and takes, right? US looks a little bit weaker than we had originally anticipated, but Europe and China are significantly stronger and the energy storage market is significantly stronger than we'd anticipated early on. But there's still a lot of uncertainty. So we just -- we've left to range.

    一直都是這樣——一直都是這樣,對吧?美國看起來比我們最初預期的要弱一些,但歐洲和中國明顯更強,而且能源儲存市場也比我們早期預期的要強得多。但仍存在許多不確定性。所以我們只是——我們已經離開範圍了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Patrick Cunningham, Citigroup.

    花旗集團的派崔克‧坎寧安。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This is [Richard Lee] actually on for Patrick. Can you dive deeper into the $400 million cost and productivity savings achieved? And what are expectations for incremental savings in the back half into '26?

    這實際上是 [Richard Lee] 為 Patrick 所做的。您能否更深入了解實現的 4 億美元成本和生產力節省?那麼,對於 26 年下半年增量儲蓄的預期是什麼呢?

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So the cost -- okay, sorry, I wasn't sure that I heard that. But yes, that's -- I mean we're pretty much the program that we have put out, Neal, you want to talk about from the detail?

    所以成本——好的,抱歉,我不確定我是否聽到了這一點。但是的,那是——我的意思是我們基本上就是我們已經推出的計劃,尼爾,你想詳細談談嗎?

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, sure, sure. So first of all, a decent part of that. If you remember, it's not quite 50-50, but we had put out a target of a certain amount of this was going to be headcount-related, SG&A type of savings. And we went after that very, very quickly. And so that is something that we obviously worked on rapidly as we were exiting last year.

    是的,當然,當然。首先,這是相當一部分。如果你還記得的話,這並不是 50-50,但我們已經設定了一定數量的目標,其中一部分將與員工人數有關,是銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 類型的節省。我們很快就實現了這個目標。因此,這顯然是我們去年退出時迅速進行的工作。

  • And then another chunk of that is a manufacturing cost and productivity set of actions. And that one, we have been progressing that really well. And obviously, now one quarter on here through the second quarter, we're now getting a lot more traction around that. That's what's really allowed us to push to the high end of this range.

    其中另一部分是製造成本和生產力行動集。在這方面,我們一直進展順利。顯然,從第一季到第二季度,我們在這方面取得了更多的進展。這才是我們真正能夠將產品推向高端的原因。

  • So we're just doing block and tackling around this. Just working on all of the different things that we have in the pipeline around cost out and productivity and just going after those things.

    所以我們只是在阻止並解決這個問題。我們只是在處理與成本和生產力有關的所有不同的事情,並追求這些事情。

  • In terms of going forward, it's a little early for me to say where we go beyond $400 million. I think, you heard Ken say earlier on the Q&A, we're not stopping here. We're continuing to look at what we can do from a cost standpoint, from a CapEx standpoint. A little early for me to give any commitments on that. But we're still looking at that obviously, in this environment.

    就未來發展而言,現在談論 4 億美元之後的計劃還為時過早。我想,您之前在問答環節聽到肯說過,我們不會就此止步。我們將繼續從成本角度、資本支出角度研究我們能做些什麼。就此我做出任何承諾還為時過早。但在這種環境下,我們顯然仍在關注這個問題。

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And I would say our process for taking this on and building a culture around cost out, I think it's quite mature in the manufacturing space, less mature in the other areas. So supply chain, a little less -- the broader supply chain for manufacturing a little less mature. Our back office processing getting cost out of that is less mature than that.

    我想說的是,我們承擔這項任務並圍繞成本建立文化的過程,我認為在製造領域已經相當成熟,但在其他領域則不太成熟。因此,供應鏈稍微差一點——更廣泛的製造業供應鏈較不成熟。我們的後台處理成本還不夠成熟。

  • So we're -- we continue on manufacturing, and then we've got to build the capability to be stronger in the other areas. So a lot of what's come out of this now is overheads and quite a bit from manufacturing. It will probably start skewing toward the other directions.

    因此,我們將繼續進行製造,然後我們必須增強其他領域的能力。因此,現在產生的許多收入都是管理費用,其中相當一部分來自製造業。它可能會開始向其他方向傾斜。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Got it. That's very helpful. Just another quick one is you're now guiding to free cash flow positive. What are your expectations for working capital in the second half?

    知道了。這非常有幫助。再簡單說一下,您現在正在引導自由現金流為正。您對下半年營運資金有何預期?

  • Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Neal Sheorey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Look, generally speaking, as we get into the second half of the year, that's obviously a little bit of the higher season, particularly in the lithium business. And so I would expect working capital to be actually a tailwind to cash.

    總體來說,隨著我們進入下半年,這顯然是一個旺季,特別是在鋰業務方面。因此我預計營運資金實際上會成為現金的順風。

  • You probably have seen so far this year. It's been a little bit of a headwind as we've been building up to the high season. So I think the combination of that plus, obviously, pricing is slightly lower, too. So there could be a little bit of a release of working capital.

    您可能已經看到了今年到目前為止的情況。當我們準備迎接旺季時,遇到了一點阻力。因此,我認為,綜合考慮這些因素,價格顯然也會略低一些。因此可能會釋放少量營運資金。

  • So net-net, I do expect working capital to be a source of cash as we go into the back end of the year.

    因此,我確實預計,進入年底時營運資金將成為現金來源。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Got it. Thank you.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That is all the time we have for questions. I will now pass it back to Kent Masters for closing remarks.

    謝謝。我們回答問題的時間就這麼多了。現在我將把發言交還給肯特·馬斯特斯,請他作最後發言。

  • Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Jerry Masters - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, operator. And as we conclude, I want to acknowledge our team's quick response and the ability to execute in this fast-changing market. These are the qualities that drove our strong results this quarter and the ones we'll lean on going forward, and will help us sustain our long-term competitive advantages and preserve growth optionality as markets improve.

    謝謝您,接線生。最後,我想讚揚我們團隊在這個快速變化的市場中的快速反應和執行能力。這些品質推動了我們本季的強勁業績,也是我們未來發展的依靠,並將幫助我們保持長期競爭優勢,並在市場好轉時保持成長選擇性。

  • So thank you for joining us today. We look forward to seeing you face-to-face at the upcoming events. I think, those are listed on Slide 18. So thank you for joining us. Stay safe, and take care.

    感謝您今天加入我們。我們期待在即將舉行的活動中與您面對面見面。我認為,這些都列在第 18 張投影片上。感謝您加入我們。保持安全,保重。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。