雅保公司 (ALB) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Albemarle Corporation Q4 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Glenn, and I will be the moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，歡迎來到雅寶公司 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。我叫格倫，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員說明）

I will now hand you over to your host, Meredith Bandy, Vice President, Investor Relations and Sustainability. Meredith, please go ahead.

我現在將把你們交給你們的主持人，投資者關係和可持續發展副總裁 Meredith Bandy。梅雷迪思，請繼續。

All right. Thank you, Glen, and welcome, everyone, to Albemarle's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings were released after the close of market yesterday, and you will find the press release and earnings presentation posted to our website under the Investors section at albemarle.com. Joining me on the call today are Kent Masters, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Tozier, Chief Financial Officer; Raphael Crawford, President of Ketjen; Netha Johnson, President of Specialties; and Eric Norris, President of Energy Storage, are also available for Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，格倫，歡迎大家參加雅寶 (Albemarle) 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。我們的收益在昨天收盤後發布，您可以在我們網站 albemarle.com 的“投資者”部分下找到發布的新聞稿和收益演示文稿。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是首席執行官 Kent Masters；首席財務官 Scott Tozier； Ketjen 總裁 Raphael Crawford； Netha Johnson，專業總裁； Energy Storage 總裁 Eric Norris 也可以參與問答環節。

I'll note that today's call will be limited to 30 minutes, shorter than our usual quarterly updates since we just held an in-depth update about 3 weeks ago. The replay of that webcast is available on our website. As a reminder, some of the statements made during this call, including our outlook, guidance, expected company performance and timing of the expansion projects may constitute forward-looking statements.

我會注意到，今天的電話會議將限制在 30 分鐘以內，比我們通常的季度更新時間要短，因為我們大約 3 週前剛剛進行了一次深入更新。該網絡廣播的重播可在我們的網站上獲得。提醒一下，本次電話會議期間發表的一些聲明，包括我們的展望、指導、預期的公司業績和擴張項目的時間安排，可能構成前瞻性聲明。

Please note the cautionary language about forward-looking statements contained in our press release and earnings presentation that same language applies to this call. I'll also note that some of our comments today refer to non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release and the appendix of our earnings presentation.

請注意我們的新聞稿和收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言，同樣的語言適用於本次電話會議。我還會注意到，我們今天的一些評論涉及非 GAAP 財務措施。可以在我們的收益發布和收益報告的附錄中找到與 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Kent.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給肯特。

Thanks, Meredith. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. I'll start by highlighting that our fourth quarter results were exceptional with close to triple the net sales from the same period in 2021 and adjusted EBITDA up more than 400% year-over-year. And while rising lithium pricing contributed to these results, we also saw significant increased volume growth. Scott will go into the financial details for the quarter and the year.

謝謝，梅雷迪思。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。首先，我要強調的是，我們第四季度的業績非常出色，淨銷售額是 2021 年同期的近三倍，調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長超過 400%。雖然鋰價格上漲促成了這些結果，但我們也看到銷量增長顯著增加。斯科特將詳細介紹本季度和本年度的財務細節。

We are confident in our assessment of the market opportunity for our essential elements and equally confident of our ability to seize that opportunity. We anticipate net sales growth of 55% to 75% for 2023. Our strategy is not just to maintain, but to build on our global leadership in both Energy Storage and Specialties, and we continue to invest in both capacity and innovation to make that happen.

我們對我們對基本要素的市場機會的評估充滿信心，同樣對我們抓住這一機會的能力充滿信心。我們預計 2023 年淨銷售額將增長 55% 至 75%。我們的戰略不僅是保持，而且是鞏固我們在儲能和特種產品領域的全球領先地位，我們將繼續投資於產能和創新，以實現這一目標.

And now I'll turn it over to Scott for details.

現在我將把它轉交給 Scott 來了解詳情。

Great. Thanks, Kent, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on Slide 5 to quickly review the fourth quarter 2022 performance.

偉大的。謝謝，肯特，大家早上好。讓我們從幻燈片 5 開始快速回顧 2022 年第四季度的業績。

Net sales for the fourth quarter closed at approximately $2.6 billion, up 193% from last year, driven primarily by our Lithium segment, but we saw increases in bromine as well. Net income attributable to Albemarle was $1.1 billion for the fourth quarter. Diluted EPS for the fourth quarter was $9.60, which was a record for Albemarle. In fact, it easily beat our previous full year EPS record of $6.34 back in 2018.

第四季度的淨銷售額約為 26 億美元，比去年增長 193%，主要受我們的鋰業務推動，但我們也看到了溴業務的增長。第四季度歸屬於雅保的淨收入為 11 億美元。第四季度的稀釋後每股收益為 9.60 美元，創下了雅寶 (Albemarle) 的記錄。事實上，它輕鬆打破了我們在 2018 年創下的 6.34 美元的全年每股收益記錄。

Turning to Slide 6. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was over $1.2 billion, up almost 5.5x year-over-year. This $1 billion increase was primarily driven by higher lithium prices and increased volumes. As you can see on the slide, these high quarterly results also contributed heavily to our full year increase in adjusted EBITDA of nearly 300%.

轉到幻燈片 6。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 超過 12 億美元，同比增長近 5.5 倍。這 10 億美元的增長主要是由鋰價格上漲和產量增加推動的。正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，這些出色的季度業績也對我們全年調整後 EBITDA 增長近 300% 做出了重大貢獻。

Our Bromine segment was up slightly. And as expected, our Catalyst segment came in lower in the quarter as higher sales volumes and favorable pricing were offset by a plant shutdown due to the winter freeze in Texas in December. Full year 2023 guidance is unchanged from our strategic update in January. We continue to expect strong sequential sales growth in 2023.

我們的溴部門略有上漲。正如預期的那樣，我們的催化劑部門在本季度的業績有所下降，因為較高的銷量和優惠的價格被德克薩斯州 12 月冬季結冰導致的工廠關閉所抵消。 2023 年全年指引與我們 1 月份的戰略更新沒有變化。我們繼續預計 2023 年的連續銷售增長強勁。

And remember, we have assumed flat year-end 2022 lithium pricing throughout 2023. We expect our adjusted EBITDA to be approximately 20% to 45% higher than 2022, with positive trends in all 3 businesses. Additionally, we expect net cash from operations to rise between 10% and 25% over 2022. And this means we expect to remain free cash flow positive this year even after increasing our growth investments.

請記住，我們假設 2022 年底鋰價在整個 2023 年持平。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將比 2022 年高出約 20% 至 45%，所有 3 項業務均呈現積極趨勢。此外，我們預計 2022 年運營產生的淨現金將增長 10% 至 25%。這意味著即使在增加增長投資後，我們預計今年的自由現金流仍將保持正數。

On Slide 8, we expect to see net sales increase sequentially quarter-to-quarter as our volumes ramp up. We project that our adjusted EBITDA will be evenly split between the first and second halves of the year. And as a result, we anticipate that margin rates will moderate as we progress through the year, and I'll come back to that in a moment.

在幻燈片 8 中，我們預計隨著銷量的增加，淨銷售額將按季度連續增長。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在今年上半年和下半年平均分配。因此，我們預計隨著今年的進展，保證金率將會放緩，我稍後會再談這個問題。

All 3 of our business segments are looking at healthy growth rates during the year reiterating what we detailed in our January event. Since our webcast in January, a lot of the questions we've gotten are around margins and capital expenditures. So I'll provide some additional color and time on those 2 items, and then Kent will provide a market update.

我們的所有 3 個業務部門都在尋求今年的健康增長率，重申我們在 1 月份的活動中詳述的內容。自從我們在 1 月份進行網絡廣播以來，我們收到的很多問題都與利潤率和資本支出有關。因此，我將為這 2 件商品提供一些額外的顏色和時間，然後 Kent 將提供市場更新。

So let's turn to Slide 9. Energy Storage EBITDA margins were 65% in 2022. And then in 2023, a lower impact of spodumene inventory and increased impact of our JVs is expected to normalize our 2023 margins to around 46% to 47%. Most of that roughly 20 percentage point decline is due to spodumene inventory lags. It takes about 6 months for spodumene to go from our mines through conversion to our customers. Last year, we saw dramatic increases in pricing for lithium and spodumene.

那麼讓我們轉到幻燈片 9。儲能 EBITDA 利潤率在 2022 年為 65%。然後在 2023 年，鋰輝石庫存的影響降低以及我們合資企業的影響增加預計將使我們 2023 年的利潤率正常化至 46% 至 47% 左右。大約 20 個百分點的下降大部分是由於鋰輝石庫存滯後造成的。鋰輝石從我們的礦山轉化為我們的客戶需要大約 6 個月的時間。去年，我們看到鋰和鋰輝石的價格大幅上漲。

And due to that time lag on spodumene inventory, we realized higher lithium pricing from our customers faster than higher spodumene costs. And as a result, we had unusually strong margins in 2022, particularly in the second half. The next item affecting margins is the accounting treatment of the MARBL joint venture. We expect to report 100% of net sales, but only our share of EBITDA, resulting in a lower reported margin on that portion of the business.

由於鋰輝石庫存存在時間滯後，我們從客戶那裡意識到更高的鋰定價比更高的鋰輝石成本更快。因此，我們在 2022 年的利潤率異常強勁，尤其是在下半年。影響利潤率的下一個項目是 MARBL 合資企業的會計處理。我們預計將報告 100% 的淨銷售額，但僅報告我們在 EBITDA 中的份額，從而導致該部分業務的報告利潤率較低。

As this joint venture continues to ramp up, this accounting impact will increase. We are in active discussions with our partner about restructuring the MARBL joint venture and expect to have news on this soon. Finally, our EBITDA margins are impacted by tax expense at our Talison joint venture.

隨著這家合資企業的不斷擴大，這種會計影響將會增加。我們正在與我們的合作夥伴就重組 MARBL 合資企業進行積極討論，並希望很快就會有這方面的消息。最後，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率受到我們 Talison 合資企業的稅收支出的影響。

Talison income is included in our EBITDA on an after-tax basis. If you adjust Talison results to exclude this, margins would be about 8% to 10% higher in 2023. Let's turn to our capital expenditures outlook on Slide 10. We are investing with 3 goals in mind: first, to add conversion capacity and remain vertically integrated; second, to invest in new product technology to support battery advances; and third, to build and maintain our world-class resource base.

Talison 收入按稅後計入我們的 EBITDA。如果您調整 Talison 的結果以排除這一點，則 2023 年的利潤率將提高約 8% 至 10%。讓我們看看我們在幻燈片 10 上的資本支出展望。我們的投資目標有 3 個：首先，增加轉換能力並保持垂直整合；第二，投資新產品技術以支持電池進步；第三，建立和維護我們世界級的資源基礎。

To meet these goals, we expect capital investment to increase from about $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion in 2023 to about $4 billion to $4.4 billion in 2027. About half the increase in capital expense relates to geographic diversification to support customer demand for regional lithium conversion and supply. In 2023, we're investing in our conversion capacity in Meishan in Qinzhou.

為實現這些目標，我們預計資本投資將從 2023 年的約 17 億美元增加到 19 億美元，到 2027 年增加約 40 億美元至 44 億美元。資本支出增加的一半左右與地域多元化有關，以支持客戶對區域鋰轉化的需求和供應。 2023 年，我們將在欽州眉山投資我們的轉換能力。

And as the EV market develops in other parts of the world, we will continue to invest. For example, we are planning investments in North America and Europe where we estimate capital intensity to be more than double. Second, by mid-decade, we expect to invest more in technology to produce advanced energy storage materials for next-generation batteries.

隨著電動汽車市場在世界其他地區的發展，我們將繼續投資。例如，我們計劃在北美和歐洲進行投資，我們估計這些地區的資本密集度將增加一倍以上。其次，到 20 世紀中期，我們預計將加大技術投資，為下一代電池生產先進的儲能材料。

And lastly, we expect to invest in additional resource development. Across our capital spending, about 5% is linked to sustainability, including improvements to new and existing facilities. These investments are expected to generate strong returns, allowing us to continue to invest to support our customers while generating significant free cash flow.

最後，我們希望投資於額外的資源開發。在我們的資本支出中，約 5% 與可持續性相關，包括改進新設施和現有設施。這些投資預計將產生豐厚的回報，使我們能夠繼續投資以支持我們的客戶，同時產生可觀的自由現金流。

With that, I'll turn it over to Kent for a brief market update and closing remarks.

有了這個，我將把它交給肯特，以獲得簡短的市場更新和結束語。

Thanks, Scott. As China reopens, we expect moderation in EV demand to be short-lived with medium and long-term demand remaining robust. We continue to expect EV sales in China to grow 40% year-over-year, an increase of nearly 3 million vehicles. As you can see in the chart on the right, sales in China are seasonally weak around the Lunar New Year. We believe the latest phasing out of subsidies will have limited impact on demand.

謝謝，斯科特。隨著中國重新開放，我們預計電動汽車需求的放緩將是短暫的，而中長期需求將保持強勁。我們繼續預計中國的電動汽車銷量將同比增長 40%，增加近 300 萬輛。如右圖所示，農曆新年前後中國的銷售季節性疲軟。我們認為最近逐步取消補貼對需求的影響有限。

EV subsidies have rolled off on schedule since 2013 with only brief declines in sales, continued municipal incentives and consumer preferences support a strong demand outlook for EVs. Our contract customers are not slowing down their ordering patterns and early indications are both that cathode inventory and battery inventory in China are decreasing, which is a good sign for lithium sales.

自 2013 年以來，電動汽車補貼已按計劃取消，銷量僅出現短暫下降，持續的市政激勵措施和消費者偏好支持了電動汽車強勁的需求前景。我們的合同客戶並沒有放慢他們的訂購模式，早期跡象表明中國的陰極庫存和電池庫存都在減少，這對鋰銷售來說是一個好兆頭。

We're listening to our customers, and we'll be watching the data, so we'll continue to adjust our expectation as the year progresses. Our biggest challenge is managing the tremendous growth opportunity that is in front of us. We are leveraging our durable competitive advantages like our world-class resources, our global asset portfolio and technical know-how to continue to grow.

我們正在傾聽客戶的意見，我們會關注數據，所以我們會隨著時間的推移繼續調整我們的預期。我們最大的挑戰是管理擺在我們面前的巨大增長機會。我們正在利用我們持久的競爭優勢，如我們的世界級資源、我們的全球資產組合和技術知識，以繼續發展。

And we are being absolutely disciplined about how we build our leadership position, particularly when it comes to scaling lithium production and conversion. We intend to accelerate growth profitably and in ways that align with customer needs. We are confident that electrification will continue to be a primary pathway toward a clean energy future, but we also recognize that the future for Albemarle is built on more than electric vehicles and done more than just our production capacity.

我們在如何建立領導地位方面絕對自律，尤其是在擴大鋰生產和轉化方面。我們打算以符合客戶需求的方式加速盈利增長。我們相信，電氣化將繼續成為通往清潔能源未來的主要途徑，但我們也認識到，Albemarle 的未來不僅僅建立在電動汽車之上，而且所做的不僅僅是我們的生產能力。

As we said in our strategic update, our strength in transforming resources into essential elements give us outstanding leadership opportunities in 4 key areas: mobility, energy, connectivity and health. We know that customer-focused innovations and sustainability are as essential to our future as our resource capacity as we work to fulfill our purpose of enabling a more resilient world. So now we'll move to Q&A. And Glenn, you're going to moderate that.

正如我們在戰略更新中所說，我們在將資源轉化為基本要素方面的優勢為我們在 4 個關鍵領域提供了卓越的領導機會：流動性、能源、連通性和健康。我們知道，在我們努力實現打造更具彈性的世界的目標時，以客戶為中心的創新和可持續性與我們的資源能力一樣對我們的未來至關重要。現在我們將進入問答環節。格倫，你要緩和這一點。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗的 P.J. Juvekar。

Yes. Just a long-term question. As you get ready for Kings Mountain site to potentially restart in, let's say, 4 or 5 years, I know you're doing a lot of community outreach and engagement today. But can you lay out for us the milestones in terms of permitting process. And after the IRA, do you think the process has gotten any easier?

是的。只是一個長期的問題。當您準備好 Kings Mountain 網站可能會在比方說 4 或 5 年內重新啟動時，我知道您今天正在做很多社區外展和參與。但是您能否為我們列出許可流程方面的里程碑？在 IRA 之後，你認為這個過程變得更容易了嗎？

Okay. So all right, interesting. So I mean we are doing a lot of community outreach. It's not so much about the permitting process. It's just kind of how we're doing business when we go about a project like this. So -- and we expect to continue to do that throughout the life of the mine as we do that and other mines and other sites as well. So we're just -- we're changing a little bit how we do that, learning from some of the success that we've had in Lithium business, and we apply that to our other sites as well, whether we're mining there or not.

好的。所以好吧，有趣。所以我的意思是我們正在做很多社區外展活動。這與許可過程無關。當我們進行這樣的項目時，這就是我們開展業務的方式。所以 - 我們希望在礦山的整個生命週期中繼續這樣做，就像我們這樣做以及其他礦山和其他地點一樣。所以我們只是 - 我們正在稍微改變我們的做法，從我們在鋰業務中取得的一些成功中學習，我們也將其應用於我們的其他站點，無論我們是在採礦有或沒有。

But we'll continue to see that outreach. On the -- has the permitting process gotten easier since the IRA, I think there's a tension on it. We are hopeful that it may be a little bit easier and streamlined, but I can't -- we can't say that it's gotten that way yet. That's my view. And then some of the milestones in permitting, Eric, do you want to comment on that?

但我們會繼續看到這種外展。關於 - 自 IRA 以來，許可程序是否變得更容易，我認為它存在壓力。我們希望它可能會更容易和簡化一些，但我不能——我們不能說它已經這樣了。這是我的看法。然後是許可方面的一些里程碑，埃里克，你想對此發表評論嗎？

I guess, P.J., I think that the first step would be permitting towards the latter half -- beginning to apply for permitting towards the latter half of this year. We've been in feasibility work on environmental side and sustainability side to prepare for that permit. And we have a permitting strategy that can't get all the details on here, but I'd say leverage is the fact that it's a brownfield site. So we're optimistic that even though there's -- as Kent said, there's tension and attention on the permitting process that this particular mine, given its brownfield history, we'll have hopefully a rapid review. So we'll continue to monitor that closely and update you accordingly.

我想，P.J.，我認為第一步是在下半年獲得許可——在今年下半年開始申請許可。我們一直在環境方面和可持續性方面進行可行性研究，為該許可做準備。我們有一個許可策略，無法在此處獲得所有詳細信息，但我想說的是，它是一個棕地。因此，我們樂觀地認為，儘管正如肯特所說，鑑於其棕地歷史，這個特定礦山的許可程序存在緊張和關注，但我們希望能夠進行快速審查。因此，我們將繼續密切監視並相應地更新您。

Yes. But even though we're not -- we're filing for permits this year, we've been doing work on gathering data for that process for almost 2 years, I think, I'm not exactly sure how long, but for quite some time, the data that's necessary for those permits, the history around everything that you have to report on to get the permits.

是的。但即使我們不是 - 我們今年正在申請許可證，我們已經為該過程收集數據近 2 年了，我想，我不確定多長時間，但相當有時，這些許可所需的數據，以及您為獲得許可而必須報告的所有內容的歷史記錄。

So it's a process that takes a little time. And even though we haven't formally filed yet, we've been working on that for a couple of years.

所以這是一個需要一點時間的過程。儘管我們還沒有正式提交申請，但我們已經為此努力了幾年。

Your next question comes from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Eric, just on lithium spot price in China, it's not a major focus of ours. We have seen continued softening over the last few weeks. What do you make of that?

埃里克，就中國的鋰現貨價格而言，這不是我們的主要關注點。我們看到過去幾週持續走軟。你怎麼看？

David, I would say it has a lot to do with what Kent described in his remarks. We've come off out of a period of time in 2022 of remarkable growth, that exceeded expectations in terms of EV production and was going at a pretty heady pace when the decision was taken to reopen the economy and then -- and of course, you know what happened thereafter.

大衛，我想說這與肯特在他的言論中所描述的有很大關係。我們已經走出了 2022 年一段顯著增長的時期，在電動汽車生產方面超出了預期，並且在做出重新開放經濟的決定時正以相當快的速度前進——當然，你知道後來發生了什麼。

I mean, the virus spread quite rapidly, and it did start consumer demand at a time when seasonally, it was weak anyway because of the Lunar New Year. I think there's much been made about the subsidies as well rolling off, but those have been rolling off for several years. Some of them have been extended at the provincial level, and some of the more meaningful subsidies are at the state and local level anyway.

我的意思是，該病毒傳播得相當快，它確實在季節性的時候啟動了消費者需求，但由於農曆新年的緣故，它還是很疲軟。我認為在補貼和取消方面已經取得了很多成就，但這些補貼已經取消了好幾年。有的已經延伸到省級了，有一些比較有意義的補貼反正是在州和地方層面。

So we don't think that, that's a big issue, and we've certainly seen that in prior years have initially a spike in demand immediately before the subsidy comes off, a drop in demand right after it comes off and then a rebound in demand. Our projection and our customers' view is that this year, particularly in the second half, we'll see that growth that's projected of close to 40%.

所以我們認為這不是一個大問題，而且我們肯定已經看到，在前幾年，補貼取消前的需求最初會出現飆升，補貼取消後需求會立即下降，然後出現反彈要求。我們的預測和我們客戶的觀點是，今年，尤其是下半年，我們將看到接近 40% 的增長。

In the meantime, people are buying under contracts, but not venturing into the spot market and bringing their -- in China, bringing their inventories down quite low because we're in this post-holiday period with still some uncertainty in the very near term. We expect that to be short-lived though with the demand rebound later this year.

與此同時，人們根據合同購買，但沒有冒險進入現貨市場並帶來他們的——在中國，使他們的庫存降到很低的水平，因為我們正處於假期後的時期，短期內仍有一些不確定性.儘管今年晚些時候需求反彈，但我們預計這將是短暫的。

Very helpful. And Scott, just on the full year guidance, thank you for the first half, second half split. Any further thoughts on the Q1 versus Q2 split in EBITDA.

很有幫助。斯科特，就全年指導而言，感謝你上半年、下半年的分裂。關於 EBITDA 中第一季度與第二季度拆分的任何進一步想法。

Yes, I would expect that Q1 would be stronger than the second quarter. Again, it's really driven by that inventory lag that we're seeing ultimately as well as the strong prices in the fourth quarter that carry into the first quarter, ultimately. So ultimately, I think the first quarter is a bit stronger than the second quarter.

是的，我預計第一季度會比第二季度強勁。同樣，這確實是由我們最終看到的庫存滯後以及最終進入第一季度的第四季度的強勁價格所推動的。所以最終，我認為第一季度比第二季度強一點。

We have our next question come from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

If lithium prices remain flat in 2023, is it the case that your equity income from Talison would remain at that 332 level all the way through 2023? And is Talison making as much spodumene as it can make or -- is there room for it to move up in 2023 and '24?

如果鋰價在 2023 年保持平穩，您在 Talison 的股權收入是否會一直保持在 332 的水平到 2023 年？泰利森 (Talison) 是否正在生產盡可能多的鋰輝石，或者——它在 2023 年和 24 年是否有上升空間？

I'll take the equity income question and maybe, Eric, you can take the production question. So we'd expect -- if lithium prices stay flat, we'd actually expect the equity income out of Talison to increase.

我會回答股權收入問題，也許埃里克，你可以回答生產問題。因此，我們預計——如果鋰價格持平，我們實際上預計 Talison 的股權收入會增加。

If you remember, the transfer price out of Talison is on a, at least historically been on a 6-month lag. It's now shifted to a 3-month lag. And so that -- the increases that have happened last year will start to flow through in the first half of 2023. So I'd expect it to be higher.

如果您還記得的話，Talison 的轉讓價格至少在歷史上有 6 個月的滯後。現在變成了 3 個月的滯後。因此——去年發生的增長將在 2023 年上半年開始出現。所以我預計它會更高。

Eric, do you want to talk about production?

埃里克，你想談談製作嗎？

Yes. And Jeff, with regard to production, you may know that CGP 1, the first line has been running for years now, is at max rates. CGP 2 came on in the recent past and is ramping a ramp last year. There is possible -- possibility for that to run it slightly -- I mean, the upside would be it can run at a slightly better rates, it's not. There's some productivity in the bottlenecking activities to make that -- that could result in that, although it is running close to capacity. And then there's additional from the tailings reprocess lithium that's being added. So it's higher year-on-year, and there's potential for be slightly higher if those productivity initiatives are successful.

是的。 Jeff，關於生產，您可能知道第一條生產線 CGP 1 已經運行多年，目前處於最高速率。 CGP 2 是最近推出的，去年正在加速發展。有可能 - 有可能稍微運行它 - 我的意思是，好處是它可以以稍微更好的速度運行，但事實並非如此。在瓶頸活動中有一些生產力可以做到這一點——這可能會導致這一點，儘管它正在接近產能。然後還有來自尾礦再加工鋰的額外添加。所以它比去年同期更高，如果這些生產力舉措取得成功，它有可能略高。

Okay. Great. And -- you spoke -- you spoke of your first half and second half lithium EBITDA as being comparable. Given that there's so much more production coming out of Chile, why would that be the case? Shouldn't your volumes be stronger in the second half of 2023?

好的。偉大的。而且——你說過——你說上半年和下半年的鋰 EBITDA 具有可比性。鑑於智利的產量要多得多，為什麼會這樣呢？ 2023 年下半年你們的銷量不應該更強勁嗎？

Yes. They'll definitely be stronger. It will be on the basis of the production out of Chile, but also the ramping up of lodging and the conversion there. And then the additional volume that Eric just talked about with Talison. Of course, prices are up, but we're assuming prices flat throughout the year based off of how we exited 2022. And then you have got to layer on the cost impacts that I talked about on the call.

是的。他們肯定會更強。這將基於智利的生產，以及那裡住宿和轉換的增加。然後是 Eric 剛剛與 Talison 談到的額外數量。當然，價格上漲了，但我們假設根據我們如何退出 2022 年，全年價格持平。然後你必須對我在電話會議上談到的成本影響進行分層。

So you've got the spodumene inventory lag that corrects itself this year. You've got as Wodgina ramps up, you have a margin rate impact there that just due to the fact that we report a 100% of the revenue and only half of the EBITDA.

因此，鋰輝石庫存滯後在今年得到了自我糾正。隨著 Wodgina 的增長，你對利潤率產生了影響，這僅僅是因為我們報告了 100% 的收入和只有一半的 EBITDA。

With our next question comes from Stephen Richardson from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Richardson。

I was wondering if you could dig in a little bit on the European strategy. It seems clearly, in China, you've acquired and built conversion capacity. And in the U.S., it looks like things are really centered at Kings Mountain. Could you talk a little bit about Europe in terms of how you're thinking about how this evolves? I know it's early, but -- is this an area where we would see you bring material from either Chile or Western Australia? And then do you envision yourself partnering or doing more of a greenfield as it comes to supplying on the continent?

我想知道你是否可以深入了解一下歐洲戰略。很明顯，在中國，你已經獲得併建立了轉換能力。在美國，事情似乎真的以國王山為中心。你能談談你對歐洲的看法嗎？我知道現在還早，但是 - 我們會看到您從智利或西澳大利亞帶來材料的區域嗎？然後，您是否設想自己在非洲大陸供應方面合作或做更多的綠地？

So I'll start with that. Eric can fill in a little bit. So I think you're -- I mean, you answered part of the question. So -- we're moving from China, North America. We've got -- we have resource strategy and a program for North America, we're investing there and we'll be a similar program in Europe. We don't have the resource base in Europe that we have in North America. So we'd like it to be a combination of some local resource, which we don't have at the moment, and then bringing some -- bringing resource in, in some form.

所以我將從那個開始。 Eric 可以補充一點。所以我認為你 - 我的意思是，你回答了部分問題。所以 - 我們正在從中國，北美轉移。我們已經 - 我們有北美的資源戰略和計劃，我們正在那裡投資，我們將在歐洲進行類似的計劃。我們在歐洲沒有北美那樣的資源基礎。所以我們希望它是一些我們目前沒有的本地資源的組合，然後以某種形式引入一些 - 引入資源。

And that's most likely going to be from Chile and Western Australia because it's where the big resource bases are at the moment. And we just got to work out the strategy of how we bring that in the most economically and the most sustainable way that we can, and that's going to be about the strategy with the assets that we put on the ground in Australia. Eric can talk about partnering.

這很可能來自智利和西澳大利亞，因為目前那裡是大型資源基地所在的地方。我們只需要製定出我們如何以最經濟和最可持續的方式實現這一目標的戰略，這將是關於我們在澳大利亞投入的資產的戰略。埃里克可以談談合作。

Yes. So Stephen, it would be a greenfield site as there really are no brownfield sites for such capacity in Europe today. And we've gone through a site selection process and looked at numerous countries and haven't drawn that down close enough yet to make an announcement or to say anything publicly further about it.

是的。所以斯蒂芬，這將是一個綠地，因為今天在歐洲確實沒有這樣容量的棕地。我們已經完成了一個選址過程，並考察了許多國家，但還沒有足夠接近以發佈公告或公開發表任何進一步的言論。

But that being said, it would be a plant that would be modeled very intentionally after what we've done here in North America or we want to do in North America, I should say -- around a plant that is able to process a variety of different feedstocks. I can't mention Chile. That would be a carbonate feed or spodumene or derivative of spodumene coming from Australia into Europe and also having the ability to have recycling.

但話雖這麼說，我應該說，這將是一個非常有意模仿我們在北美所做的或我們想在北美做的事情的工廠——圍繞一個能夠處理多種多樣的工廠的不同原料。我不能提到智利。那將是一種碳酸鹽進料或鋰輝石或從澳大利亞進入歐洲的鋰輝石衍生物，並且還具有回收能力。

We very much view that kind of strategy being one that has an opportunity for a partner, whether that be an OEM or other producers in the battery supply chain in the region. And we don't have anything further we can say about that, but that's an effort that remains underway in terms of how we might partner to bring about that closed loop process in addition to the sort of the virgin lithium production we intend to put on the continent.

我們非常認為這種戰略對合作夥伴來說是一個機會，無論是原始設備製造商還是該地區電池供應鏈中的其他生產商。我們對此無話可說，但就我們如何合作實現閉環流程以及我們打算進行的原生鋰生產而言，我們仍在努力大陸。

Appreciate the color. If I could just get one follow-up. I appreciate the comments off the top in terms of the CapEx outlook. One of the questions that we fielded on this is it's clear that your -- this CapEx outlook is a function of looking at the current environment or I think you used year-end '22 environment for pricing going forward. So important to realize that you're not obligated to spend this $4.4 billion in '27.

欣賞顏色。如果我能得到一個後續行動。我很欣賞關於資本支出前景的評論。我們對此提出的一個問題是，很明顯，您的資本支出前景是查看當前環境的函數，或者我認為您使用了年底的 '22 環境來進行未來定價。意識到您沒有義務在 27 世紀花費這 44 億美元非常重要。

I guess the one point of clarification is, is that a peak for CapEx based on the Project Q that you're looking at, like this CapEx come down in '28, '29 based on that cadence of project spend.

我想需要澄清的一點是，資本支出的峰值是基於您正在查看的項目 Q，就像這個資本支出在 28 年、29 年根據項目支出的節奏下降一樣。

Yes. So yes, I would say -- I mean, you're right. We're not committed to it. So we will look, as things evolve and go, that's our best view. We put a 5-year plan out there. That's our best view -- the best view of what we'd be doing over 5 years. So -- but any capital that we'll be investing in '27 will be for '31, '32 market. And it's a pretty long way to be able to predict that from here. So it's -- we don't want to go past that 5-year forecast that we put out there.

是的。所以是的，我會說——我的意思是，你是對的。我們不致力於它。所以我們會看到，隨著事情的發展和發展，這是我們最好的觀點。我們制定了一個 5 年計劃。這是我們最好的看法——對我們 5 年內要做的事情的最好看法。所以——但我們將投資於 27 年的任何資本都將用於 31 年、32 年的市場。從這裡預測它還有很長的路要走。所以它 - 我們不想超過我們在那裡發布的 5 年預測。

It could level off. I mean, it just depends on what the market looks like, and we'll know a lot more in 5 years' time than we do today. But any capital we're spending in '27 is that's for '32 or '31, whatever the time frame is around that. And then it's important to note that our CapEx program becomes more resource oriented.

它可能會趨於平穩。我的意思是，這只取決於市場的情況，5 年後我們會比現在了解更多。但是我們在 27 年花費的任何資本都是用於 32 年或 31 年的，無論時間框架是什麼。然後重要的是要注意我們的資本支出計劃變得更加以資源為導向。

I mean, it will be -- it's been conversion in the near term because we've had the resource. It will be more balanced between conversion and resource as we get out into that time frame.

我的意思是，這將是 - 它在短期內已經轉換，因為我們擁有資源。當我們進入那個時間框架時，轉換和資源之間將更加平衡。

We have our next question comes from Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Christopher Parkinson。

Can you just give a little bit more incremental information on how we should be thinking about the ramps at both Kemerton and Qinzhou, and whether or not there's any just very brief updated thought process on your additional capacity optionality, especially in the United States through the balance of the decade.

你能否提供更多關於我們應該如何考慮 Kemerton 和欽州的坡道的增量信息，以及是否有任何關於你的額外容量可選性的非常簡短的更新思考過程，特別是在美國通過十年的平衡。

Okay. So -- and I guess, I mean, Qinzhou is operating, and it will ramp up. So there are make rights we have to do -- we have to do there. So even we're operating today, we'll have to take it down to do those make rights to get additional volume, and there's a potential to expand at Qinzhou as well, but that's not a project that we're executing at the moment.

好的。所以——我想，我的意思是，欽州正在運營，而且會增加。所以我們必須做一些權利——我們必須在那裡做。因此，即使我們今天在運營，我們也必須將其拆除才能獲得額外的產量，而且欽州也有擴張的潛力，但這不是我們目前正在執行的項目.

So that's -- we want to get up the speed and operating, but it's operating today, and we'll probably -- it will ramp up over the next year, I think, to kind of the full capacity, acquisition capacity, which is around -- we target at 25,000 tons. Kemerton is making product today, but we're not selling in the product because we need to get qualification from our customers. So we're -- that's where we are. And then that will ramp over time -- and we've -- the strategy -- originally, the strategy at Kemerton was to execute both train simultaneously.

所以這就是 - 我們想要加快速度和運營，但它今天正在運營，我們可能會 - 它會在明年增加，我認為，某種程度上是全能力，收購能力，這是大約——我們的目標是 25,000 噸。 Kemerton 今天在生產產品，但我們不銷售產品，因為我們需要從客戶那裡獲得資格。所以我們 - 這就是我們所在的位置。然後這將隨著時間的推移而增加 - 我們已經 - 戰略 - 最初，Kemerton 的戰略是同時執行兩個訓練。

We've bifurcated that because we struggled with labor during the pandemic and still, frankly, struggle with labor at Kemerton. So we're sequencing the commissioning and implementation. So Train 1 is operating and making product. Train 2 is not, and it's probably 6 months behind Train 1, I would say. And then that will ramp over time. We've always said we ramp those projects. We planned those projects to ramp from start-up to full capacity over a 2-year period.

我們之所以分道揚鑣，是因為我們在大流行期間與勞動力作鬥爭，坦率地說，在 Kemerton 仍然與勞動力作鬥爭。因此，我們正在對調試和實施進行排序。所以 Train 1 正在運營和製造產品。火車 2 不是，我會說它可能比火車 1 晚 6 個月。然後這將隨著時間的推移而增加。我們一直說我們會加速這些項目。我們計劃讓這些項目在 2 年內從啟動到滿負荷運行。

And I think that's probably the -- still the rule of thumb that we're following. And is there another part of the question?

而且我認為這可能是 - 仍然是我們遵循的經驗法則。還有問題的另一部分嗎？

Yes. Just any updated thought process on your additional projects that you can assess specifically in the U.S. over the next few years? Just any updated thoughts? That's all.

是的。在接下來的幾年裡，您可以在美國專門評估的關於您的其他項目的任何更新的思維過程？只是任何更新的想法？就這樣。

Yes. So probably nothing new since the call a few weeks ago. So we're still looking at the site selection for a conversion facility to convert the Kings Mountain or Silver Peak, we've expanded and it's operating at that expansion rate, maybe a little bit more ramp-up to do at Silver Peak, but it's operating at that higher rate. And then the other would be Magnolia or -- and that is a little bit further out, but we're making progress there and planning that project, but we've not kicked it off from an FID standpoint yet.

是的。所以自從幾週前的電話會議以來可能沒有什麼新鮮事。因此，我們仍在考慮轉換設施的選址以轉換國王山或銀峰，我們已經擴展並以該擴展速度運行，也許在銀峰需要更多的提升，但是它以更高的速度運行。然後另一個是 Magnolia 或 - 這有點遠，但我們正在那裡取得進展並規劃該項目，但我們還沒有從 FID 的角度啟動它。

Our last question comes from John Roberts from Credit Suisse.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰羅伯茨。

I think your guidance is based on the December 31 realized price, but I just want to clarify, the equity income within that guidance is based on price rising through the first quarter because of the lag and then for the remaining quarters of 2023, the equity income has a flat price after that lags recovered.

我認為你的指引是基於 12 月 31 日的實現價格，但我只想澄清一下，該指引內的股權收入是基於第一季度的價格上漲，因為滯後，然後是 2023 年剩餘季度的股權收益滯後恢復後，收入價格持平。

It's actually -- on the equity income, it actually goes up in the first half through the first half. So -- and then we'll see volumetric increases out of that as well. So it actually increases through the year sequentially.

實際上——就股權收益而言，它實際上在上半年到上半年都在上升。所以 - 然後我們也會看到體積增加。所以它實際上逐年增加。

Okay. And then any update on the negotiations with Mineral Resources on the MARBL JV?

好的。那麼關於 MARBL JV 與 Mineral Resources 的談判有何最新進展？

So not a real update. Scott had said in his comments that we continue to talk with our partners and that we expect to be able to announce something soon, but nothing for today.

所以不是真正的更新。斯科特在他的評論中表示，我們將繼續與我們的合作夥伴交談，我們希望能夠很快宣布一些事情，但今天沒有。

Ladies and gentlemen, that's all the time we have for questions. I will now pass the floor back to Kent Masters for closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，這就是我們提問的全部時間。我現在將發言權交還給 Kent Masters，請其結束髮言。

Okay. Thank you. As you heard today and during our January webcast, we feel we have the right strategy, the operating model and the people to meet this opportunity and manage our business successfully to grow today and well into the future. So thank you for joining our call and your interest in Albemarle. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。正如您在今天和我們 1 月份的網絡廣播中所聽到的那樣，我們認為我們擁有正確的戰略、運營模式和人員來迎接這個機會並成功地管理我們的業務以實現今天和未來的發展。因此，感謝您加入我們的電話會議以及您對 Albemarle 的興趣。謝謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。