Air Lease Corp (AL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Krista, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Air Lease fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

午安.我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加航空租賃 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jason Arnold, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Arnold, you may begin your conference.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Jason Arnold 先生。阿諾德先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thanks Krista, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Air Lease Corporation's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call. This is Jason Arnold. I'm joined today by Steve Házy, our Executive Chairman; John Plueger, our Chief Executive Officer and President; and Greg Willis, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝克里斯塔，大家下午好，歡迎參加航空租賃公司 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。這是傑森阿諾德。今天和我一起參加的是我們的執行主席 Steve Házy；我們的執行長兼總裁 John Plueger；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Greg Willis。

Earlier today, we published our fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results. A copy of our earnings release is available on the investors section of our website at airleasecorp.com. This conference call is being webcast and recorded today, Thursday, February 13, 2025, and the webcast will be available for replay on our website. At this time, all participants to the call are in listen-only mode.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2024 年第四季和全年業績。我們的收益報告副本可在我們網站 airleasecorp.com 的投資者部分查閱。本次電話會議將於今天（2025 年 2 月 13 日，星期四）進行網路直播和錄製，網路直播將在我們的網站上提供重播。此時，所有通話參與者都處於只聽模式。

Before we begin, please note that certain statements in this conference call, including certain answers to your questions, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. This includes, without limitation, statements regarding the state of the airline industry, the impact of aircraft and engine delivery delays and manufacturing flaws, our aircraft sales pipeline, and our future operations and performance.

在我們開始之前，請注意，本次電話會議中的某些陳述，包括對您的問題的某些回答，屬於《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。這包括但不限於有關航空業狀況、飛機和發動機交付延遲和製造缺陷的影響、我們的飛機銷售管道以及我們未來的營運和業績的聲明。

These statements and any projections as to our future performance represent management's current estimates and speak only as of today's date. These estimates involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed description of risk factors that may affect our results. Air Lease Corporation assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements or information in light of new information or future events.

這些聲明以及對我們未來業績的任何預測均代表管理層當前的估計，且僅代表截至今天的情況。這些估計涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以獲得可能影響我們結果的風險因素的更詳細描述。航空租賃公司不承擔根據新資訊或未來事件更新任何前瞻性陳述或資訊的義務。

In addition, we may discuss certain financial measures such as adjusted net income before income taxes, adjusted diluted earnings per share before income taxes, and adjusted pre-tax return on equity, which are non-GAAP measures. A description of our reasons for utilizing these non-gap measures as well as our definition of them and the reconciliation to corresponding GAAP measures can be found in the earnings release in 10K we issued today. This release can be found in both the investors and the press section of our website.

此外，我們也可能會討論某些財務指標，例如調整後的稅前淨收入、調整後的稅前攤薄每股收益和調整後的稅前股本回報率，這些都是非公認會計準則指標。我們利用這些非差距指標的原因以及我們對它們的定義以及與相應的 GAAP 指標的調節的描述可以在我們今天發布的 10K 收益報告中找到。此新聞稿可在我們網站的投資者和新聞部分找到。

Similar to last quarter, given ongoing litigation, we won't be able to take any questions about our Russia fleet insurance claims. Lastly, as a reminder, unauthorized recording of this conference call is not permitted.

與上一季類似，鑑於正在進行的訴訟，我們將無法回答有關俄羅斯船隊保險索賠的任何問題。最後，提醒一下，未經授權不允許錄製本次電話會議。

I'll now turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer and President, John Plueger.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的執行長兼總裁約翰·普魯格 (John Plueger)。

Well, thanks, Jason. Hello, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today.

好吧，謝謝，傑森。大家好，下午好。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。

During the fourth quarter, Air Lease generated revenues of $713 million and $0.83 in diluted earnings per share. Our results benefited from the continued expansion of our fleet, offset by lower end-of-lease revenue as compared to the prior year. I'm also happy to report that full-year 2024 revenue and ending fleet net book value reached record levels in the history of our company.

第四季度，航空租賃公司的營收為 7.13 億美元，每股攤薄收益為 0.83 美元。我們的業績受惠於機隊的持續擴張，但與前一年相比，租賃期滿收入有所下降。我還很高興地報告，2024 年全年收入和期末車隊帳面淨值達到了我們公司歷史上的最高水平。

We purchased 18 new aircraft from our order book during the quarter, adding $1.3 billion in flight equipment to our balance sheet, and we sold 14 aircraft for approximately $540 million in sales proceeds. The weighted average age of our fleet was stable quarter over quarter at 4.6 years, while weighted average lease term remaining extended slightly to 7.2 years. Fleet utilization remains very robust at 100%.

我們在本季從訂單中購買了 18 架新飛機，為我們的資產負債表增加了 13 億美元的飛行設備，我們出售了 14 架飛機，銷售收益約為 5.4 億美元。我們機隊的加權平均機齡與上一季持平，為 4.6 年，而加權平均租賃期限略微延長至 7.2 年。車隊利用率仍維持 100% 的強勁水準。

Our fourth-quarter deliveries came in better than expected as the OEMs pushed to achieve their own delivery goals and objectives ahead of year end. On a full-year basis, the $5 billion in deliveries we received hit the midpoint of the $4.5 billion to $5.5 billion dollar range we outlined to you at the beginning of last year.

由於 OEM 廠商努力在年底前實現自己的交付目標，我們第四季的交付情況優於預期。從全年來看，我們收到的 50 億美元交付金額達到了我們去年年初向您概述的 45 億至 55 億美元範圍的中間值。

For 2025, we expect to receive $3 billion to $3.5 billion of new aircraft delivered from our order book, with around $800 million anticipated to deliver in the first quarter of '25. I would also note that approximately 80% of our deliveries expected for 2025 are Boeing aircraft, so any additional challenges emerging in Boeing's production efforts could be impactful.

到 2025 年，我們預計將收到價值 30 億至 35 億美元的新飛機訂單，其中預計 8 億美元將在 2025 年第一季交付。我還要指出的是，預計 2025 年交付的飛機中約有 80% 是波音飛機，因此波音生產過程中出現的任何額外挑戰都可能產生影響。

With the lower forecast expenditures on new aircraft deliveries for 2025 compared to 2024, ALC will have the ability to largely self-fund those deliveries from operating cash flow plus aircraft sales. This means reduced funding needs from the debt capital markets.

由於 2025 年新飛機交付的預計支出低於 2024 年，ALC 將能夠主要透過營運現金流加上飛機銷售來籌集這些交付的資金。這意味著債務資本市場的融資需求減少。

In effect, for 2025, we anticipate debt funding of approximately $2 billion including refinancing of remaining 2025 debt maturities. So we will have less overall financing in 2025 where it appears the financing rates will remain elevated. Greg will discuss this further. And we believe, by the way, that the same situation will exist for 2026.

實際上，到 2025 年，我們預計債務融資額約為 20 億美元，包括 2025 年剩餘債務的再融資。因此，到 2025 年，我們的整體融資將會減少，而融資利率似乎仍將維持在高點。格雷格將進一步討論此問題。順便說一句，我們相信 2026 年仍會出現同樣的情況。

Expected deliveries from our forward order book are fully placed through 2026, and the team is working diligently to achieve the highest possible lease rates on our remaining deliveries in 2027 and beyond. Our young fleet and sizable new order book with delivery positions well inside of any available fleet manufacturers continues to position us exceptionally well in the current commercial aircraft supply constrained environment.

我們的遠期訂單預計交付至 2026 年，團隊正在努力使 2027 年及以後剩餘的交付達到盡可能高的租賃率。我們的年輕機隊和龐大的新訂單量以及其交付排名遠遠超出任何現有機隊製造商的水平，使我們在當前商用飛機供應受限的環境中繼續佔據有利地位。

This strong environment is also continuing to drive up lease rates. So to that point, I'd like to share some specific information that I hope you find useful as we as we report here on our full-year 2024. Now I won't be updating the specific comments or examples every quarter, but simply wanted to give you a flavor of what we are seeing in the overall context.

這種強勁的環境也持續推高了租賃率。因此，在這一點上，我想分享一些具體信息，希望您在我們報告 2024 年全年業績時發現這些信息很有用。現在我不會每季更新特定的評論或範例，而只是想讓您了解我們所看到的整體情況。

First, during Q4, ALC executed lease extensions covering 23 single aisle aircraft including Boeing 737-800, Boeing 737-8 MAX, A321ceos, and 1one E190. In aggregate, that pool of aircraft extensions resulted in higher lease rates and lease rate factors than those just prior to extension. This is very significant in that lease rates normally are lower during a lease extension compared to when the aircraft delivered new.

首先，在第四季度，ALC 執行了租賃延期，涵蓋 23 架單通道飛機，包括波音 737-800、波音 737-8 MAX、A321ceos 和 1one E190。總體而言，這批飛機的延期導致租賃費率和租賃費率因素高於延期之前。這非常重要，因為租賃期延長期間的租賃費率通常低於新飛機交付時的租賃費率。

Second, year to date in 2025, ALC has agreed to lease extensions on six Boeing 777-300 aircraft across two airlines. The aggregate total lease rates and lease rate factors were largely in line with what they were prior to the extension, and I would add also significantly higher than the lease rates indicated currently for those aircraft by well-known appraisal firms.

第二，截至 2025 年，ALC 已同意向兩家航空公司延長租賃六架波音 777-300 飛機的期限。整體租賃費率和租賃費率因素與延期之前的水平基本一致，而且我想補充的是，這些費率也明顯高於知名評估公司目前對這些飛機給出的租賃費率。

This points to the growing strength of wide-bodied aircraft, which historically have always lagged narrow body aircraft. In fact, we believe that wide body demand has surged faster than narrow body demand over the past six months. Steve will comment on this further in his remarks.

這顯示寬體飛機的實力日益增強，而從歷史上看，寬體飛機的發展一直落後於窄體飛機。事實上，我們認為，過去六個月寬體飛機的需求成長速度快於窄體飛機的需求成長速度。史蒂夫將在他的評論中對此進一步評論。

Third, our Q4 new aircraft deliveries represented the highest delivery yield in a quarter in over four years. Fourth, as you recall, during COVID, we had a number of leases that were restructured or signed at relatively low lease rate factors as a product of the challenges facing our customers at that point in time.

第三，我們第四季的新飛機交付量創下了四年多來單季最高的交付率。第四，您還記得，在疫情期間，由於當時客戶面臨的挑戰，我們重組或以相對較低的租賃利率簽署了一些租約。

Approximately $5 billion net book value of these lower yielding leases will mature by the end of 2026. As these leases mature and expire through 2026, we continue to be optimistic about lease rate extensions at significantly higher lease rates or releasing to the next lessee at significantly higher lease rates as we are seeing today.

這些收益較低的租賃的帳面淨值約為 50 億美元，將於 2026 年底到期。隨著這些租約到期並將於 2026 年到期，我們仍然對以明顯更高的租賃價格延長租賃價格或以明顯更高的租賃價格租賃給下一位承租人持樂觀態度，正如我們今天所看到的那樣。

Now at the same time, we must recognize we are in an environment where interest rates have not fallen as rapidly as most of most of us expected a year ago. In fact, looking forward, it appears that interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period of time than we anticipated. Looking back over the past 24 months, it can still be said that overall interest rates rose more than lease rates from the historic lows.

同時，我們必須認識到，我們目前所處的環境中，利率下降的速度並沒有像大多數人一年前預期的那麼快。事實上，展望未來，利率維持高點的時間似乎將比我們預期的更長。回顧過去 24 個月，仍然可以說整體利率從歷史低點的上漲幅度超過了租賃利率。

Let me also remind you that we undertook a program several years ago to reduce our China content, and we have done so very effectively. That continued in 2024, wherein almost half of our aircraft sales were aircraft on lease to China. We made healthy gains on those sales, yet I want to remind you that those China leases were very profitable, in fact, some of our highest yielding leases. So this also affects our margins looking forward.

我還要提醒大家，幾年前我們實施了一項計劃來減少我們的中國含量，而且我們做得非常有效。這種趨勢一直延續到 2024 年，其中我們銷售的飛機中幾乎有一半是租給中國的飛機。我們在這些銷售上獲得了可觀的收益，但我想提醒大家的是，這些中國的租約非常有利可圖，事實上，是我們收益最高的租約之一。所以這也會影響我們未來的利潤率。

With these factors, it is taking and will take a bit longer for increased lease margins being seen in our financial results. Nevertheless, we expect to see a modest moderately sized steady upward trajectory in fleet lease yields each year for the next three to four years based on our views of the market and assumptions around our sales activity and the interest rate environment over the same period.

考慮到這些因素，租賃利潤率的提高需要一段時間才能在我們的財務表現中顯現出來。儘管如此，根據我們對市場的看法以及對同期銷售活動和利率環境的假設，我們預計未來三到四年內每年的機隊租賃收益率將呈現適度穩定上升的趨勢。

At the same time, we are reaping the benefits of higher aircraft values and our aircraft sales. Strong commercial aircraft demand continues to support our sales efforts and gain on sale margins. Our gain on sale margins for fourth-quarter '24 and full-year '24 were very robust, reflecting this environment.

同時，我們也從飛機價值的提升和飛機銷售的提升中獲益。強勁的商用飛機需求持續支持我們的銷售努力和銷售利潤的成長。我們 24 年第四季和 24 年全年的銷售利潤率成長非常強勁，反映了這種環境。

Our sales pipeline remains solid at $1.1 billion, a consistently healthy gain gain on sale margins. We envision an overall sales outlook of about $1.5 billion for 2025, around $400 million of which is expected to close in the first quarter.

我們的銷售管道仍保持穩定，達到 11 億美元，銷售利潤率持續健康成長。我們預計 2025 年的整體銷售額約為 15 億美元，其中預計第一季將實現約 4 億美元。

Given this overall backdrop, let me discuss capital allocation. For 2025, it's going to be quite simple. We've told you that besides funding our order book, our top priority is to get back to our target debt to equity ratio of 2.5 to 1. We expect to be there by the end of 2025, perhaps even earlier.

鑑於這樣的整體背景，我來討論一下資本配置。對於 2025 年來說，這將非常簡單。我們告訴過您，除了為我們的訂單提供資金外，我們的首要任務是將債務與股權比率恢復到 2.5 比 1 的目標。我們預計到 2025 年底甚至可能更早實現這一目標。

So in 2025, we are focused first on debt reduction. Once we hit our target debt equity level, we will, as always, consider all capital allocation avenues, including incremental aircraft or fleet purchases, capital return to shareholders, M&A possibilities, whichever we deem the best deployment of capital for our shareholders.

因此，2025年我們首先要關注的是減債。一旦我們達到目標債務權益水平，我們將一如既往地考慮所有資本配置管道，包括增量飛機或機隊購買、向股東返還資本、併購可能性，無論哪種方式我們認為都是對股東最好的資本配置。

Let me conclude a bit off topic, but importantly to comment on the tragic fires that devastated Los Angeles, our hometown, recently. You all read and saw firsthand the unprecedented devastation in our city. Despite a number of our employees being evacuated, I am incredibly thankful above all that none of our employees suffered the loss of their homes or any other tragedies.

最後，我想說一些題外話，但重要的是要評論一下最近摧毀我們家鄉洛杉磯的悲慘火災。大家都親眼目睹了我們的城市所遭受的前所未有的破壞。儘管我們的一些員工被疏散，但最重要的是，我非常慶幸我們的員工沒有失去家園或遭遇任何其他悲劇。

During this period of crisis, I am proud that the ALC team maintained normal business operations during this time without skipping a beat. At the same time, we are all profoundly saddened by the loss of life and property of others less fortunate. Many of our employees spent time helping others in need.

在這段危機時期，我很自豪 ALC 團隊在這段時間裡保持了正常的業務運營，沒有出現任何問題。同時，我們也對其他不幸者的生命和財產損失深感悲痛。我們的許多員工花時間幫助有需要的人。

And while we offer financial assistance to all employees for any fire-related housing or other costs, most declined, wishing instead that ALC make a meaningful contribution to those who saved our homes and our lives. As such, I'm pleased to advise that ALC is donating $0.5 million to LA City and County fire departments with our profound gratitude and heartfelt thanks.

儘管我們向所有員工提供與火災相關的住房或其他費用的經濟援助，但大多數人都拒絕了，而是希望 ALC 為那些拯救了我們的家園和生命的人做出有意義的貢獻。因此，我很高興地告知大家，ALC 將向洛杉磯市和縣消防部門捐款 50 萬美元，並表達我們深切的謝意和衷心的感謝。

So let me now turn the call over to Steve Házy to offer some additional commentary, Steve?

那麼現在讓我將電話轉給史蒂夫·哈齊 (Steve Házy)，讓他提供一些額外的評論，史蒂夫？

Thank you, John. I just like to underscore John's comments, and my thanks to our team for their dedication to our company and our colleagues in the LA fires. I'm very proud of the way our team responded in offering help and assistance to each other, as well as family, friends, and neighbors in their communities to overcome the tragic destruction witnessed in Los Angeles during January.

謝謝你，約翰。我只是想強調約翰的評論，並感謝我們團隊在洛杉磯火災中對我們公司和同事的奉獻。我為我們團隊的回應方式感到非常自豪，我們互相幫助，並向家人、朋友和社區鄰居提供幫助和援助，以克服一月份洛杉磯發生的悲慘破壞。

We are very pleased to report record revenues and fleet size during 2024 and view Air Lease as very well positioned for the current environment as we move forward in 2025 and beyond. Demand for commercial jet aircraft is extremely high. And our own fleet and large order book consists of some of the most attractive commercial aircraft types on the market.

我們非常高興地報告 2024 年的收入和機隊規模創下了歷史新高，並認為隨著我們在 2025 年及以後的發展，航空租賃在當前環境下處於非常有利的地位。對商用噴射機的需求極高。我們自己的機隊和大量訂單包括一些市場上最具吸引力的商用飛機類型。

There's rarely an airline customer meeting that goes by way of not having asked to find more aircraft for them. And nearly all of our leases maturing are being extended at very strong profitable lease rates. The phenomenon of lease extension rates exceeding initial new aircraft lease rates is truly exceptional.

很少有航空公司在客戶會議上不要求為他們尋找更多的飛機。而且，我們幾乎所有到期的租約都以非常可觀的利潤率進行了延長。租賃延期率超過初始新飛機租賃率的現象確實罕見。

Second leases are typically signed with a step down in the lease rate, given the depreciation of the aircraft over time. So it's a pretty remarkable environment where lease rates are actually stepping up on a second lease to such high levels.

考慮到飛機隨著時間的推移會貶值，第二次租賃的租賃費率通常會降低。因此，這是一個相當了不起的環境，第二次租賃的租賃率實際上已經上升到如此高的水平。

As John noted, I do also point out that the drag of the lower yield of the restructured leases that we did during the pandemic and early deliveries in the pandemic season should begin to weigh less heavily on our overall fleet yield as the lower lease rate terms end, and they extended at market rates with the existing airline or with a new airline.

正如約翰所指出的，我也確實指出，隨著較低租賃利率期限的結束，以及與現有航空公司或新航空公司的市場利率延長，我們在疫情期間進行的重組租賃和疫情季節的提前交付所帶來的較低收益率的拖累，應該會開始減輕我們整體機隊收益率的負擔。

Demand for our new commercial aircraft is being further supported by exceptionally strong passenger traffic volumes. According to recent data released by IATA, total passenger traffic volumes rose by more than 10% during 2024 versus 2023, reaching all-time record levels. International volumes were the strongest segment on the market, rising an amazing 14% year over year. And practically all markets growing in double digit or near very strong double digit rates.

異常強勁的客運量進一步支持了我們新型商用飛機的需求。根據國際航空運輸協會最近發布的數據，2024年的總客運量較2023年增加10%以上，達到歷史最高水準。國際銷售量是市場上最強勁的部分，比去年同期成長了驚人的 14%。幾乎所有市場都以兩位數或接近兩位數的強勁速度成長。

Asia Pacific remains the leading international market globally, rising 25% during the year. While this dramatic pace of growth is likely to slow somewhat in the years ahead, as growth rates normalized, we continue to see this region as being a significant source of expansion worldwide.

亞太地區仍然是全球領先的國際市場，全年成長了25%。儘管未來幾年這種急劇的成長速度可能會放緩，但隨著成長率逐漸正常化，我們仍將該地區視為全球擴張的重要來源。

Latin America, Middle East, Africa, and Europe were growth leaders in the international segment last year. Domestic volumes, meanwhile, delivered a solid 6% rate of growth in the last year, which is more or less in line with the longer term industry averages of approximately 2 times the pace of GP growth on a global level.

去年，拉丁美洲、中東、非洲和歐洲是國際領域的成長領導者。同時，國內業務量在去年實現了 6% 的穩健成長率，與全球 GP 成長速度約 2 倍的長期產業平均值基本一致。

Passenger load factors also continue to rise. Reaching approximately an average of 84% for the full year of 2024. These are exceptionally robust levels, breaking records in a number of regions and markets. Asia Pacific region low factors, for example, achieved their record all-time high in 2024. 15 to 20 years ago, developing markets and international factors were exciting if they moved into the high 70s range, while now some are approaching in some cases even exceeding 90% load factor levels.

客座率也持續上升。2024年全年平均達約84%。這些是異常強勁的水平，打破了許多地區和市場的記錄。例如，亞太地區的低因子在 2024 年創下了歷史新高。

High demand and low supply of commercial aircraft is certainly a component driving load factors to achieve these record levels. As a reminder, Air Lease clearly benefits from strong passenger traffic volume expansion, though we are not dependent on it, as we focus on replacing aging airline fleets with new technology, fuel efficient aircraft, and economically profitable leases (technical difficulty) increasingly apparent.

商用飛機的高需求和低供應無疑是推動載客率達到這些創紀錄水平的一個因素。提醒一下，航空租賃顯然受益於強勁的客運量擴張，儘管我們並不依賴它，因為我們專注於用新技術、省油的飛機和經濟上有利可圖的租賃（技術難度）日益明顯地取代老化的航空機隊。

This combination of accelerating wide-bodied demand, relatively modest production rates, and continued aging of the in-place operational wide-body jets is developing into what we expect to be a protracted shortfall of good widebody aircraft over multiple years to come. John mentioned on the call the extension of sic of our 777-300ER aircrafts to date in 2025. We're also seeing the strengthening demand supporting similar dynamics to our other wide bodies, including our A330s coming up for lease exploration.

寬體飛機需求加速成長、生產力相對溫和以及現有寬體飛機持續老化等因素綜合作用，我們預計未來數年內優質寬體飛機將長期短缺。約翰在電話會議中提到，我們的 777-300ER 飛機的 sic 有效期將延長至 2025 年。我們也看到需求不斷增強，支援了我們其他寬體飛機類似的動態，包括即將進行租賃探索的 A330。

This backdrop of strong demand and limited production is appearing to repeat the same path and characteristics as witnessed in the narrow body market already, which should definitely support strength in the value of our wide-bodied fleet. It's very difficult to foresee a significant ramping up of OEM production rates that could address this expected shortfall, especially with the ongoing delays in the 777X program.

強勁需求和有限產量的背景似乎重複了窄體飛機市場已經經歷的相同路徑和特徵，這肯定會支撐我們寬體飛機機隊的價值。很難預見 OEM 生產率會大幅提高以解決這一預期的短缺，尤其是在 777X 專案持續延遲的情況下。

Wrapping up my comments, I'm very excited about Air Lease's prospects for 2025 and beyond. We look forward to enjoying the higher lease rates on our new aircraft from our very sizable order book, along with robust lease rates on new extensions as a further normalization of the yield curve over time, which combined should be highly beneficial to our operating performance ahead.

總結一下，我對 Air Lease 2025 年及以後的前景感到非常興奮。我們期待從我們龐大的訂單中享受到新飛機的更高租賃利率，以及隨著收益率曲線隨著時間的推移進一步正常化而帶來的新擴建項目的強勁租賃利率，這些因素結合起來將對我們未來的經營業績非常有利。

I will also remind you of the deep underlying value of our own fleet, which is carried at historical depreciated cost, as well as our audible positions, which are for slots well inside of any available aircraft from the OEMs and at prices that could not be duplicated at present. A significant part of the order book that we have today that is still yet to deliver were contracts that we negotiated in 2021.

我還要提醒大家，我們自己的機隊有著深遠的潛在價值，這些機隊以歷史折舊成本計算，而且我們的可聽位置也非常出色，這些位置位於原始設備製造商 (OEM) 提供的任何飛機的可用位置之內，而且價格目前無法複製。我們目前擁有的尚未交付的訂單中很大一部分是我們在 2021 年談判的合約。

Our order book has significant value and none of that is carried or reflected on our balance sheet at this time. I would like to now turn over the call to our CFO, Greg Willis, for his comments on our financial situation.

我們的訂單具有重大價值，但目前這些價值尚未反映在我們的資產負債表上。現在，我想將電話轉給我們的財務長 Greg Willis，請他對我們的財務狀況發表評論。

Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon everyone. During the fourth quarter, Air Lease generated total revenues of $713 million which was comprised of approximately $639 million of rental revenue and $74 million of aircraft sales, trading, and other activities.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家下午好。第四季度，航空租賃公司的總收入為 7.13 億美元，其中包括約 6.39 億美元的租賃收入和 7,400 萬美元的飛機銷售、交易和其他活動收入。

Rental revenue was in line with the fourth quarter of '23, and lease yields remained essentially flat. Rental revenues have benefited from the growth of our fleet, offset by significantly lower end-of-lease revenue. As a reminder, we recognize $60 million in end of least revenue in the prior period, which as compared to the current period was $6 million.

租金收入與23年第四季持平，租賃收益率基本持平。租賃收入受惠於我們機隊的成長，但租賃期滿收入的大幅下降抵消了這一成長。提醒一下，我們確認上一期末收入為 6,000 萬美元，而本期末收入為 600 萬美元。

As we have messaged before, we continue to anticipate lower levels of end-of-lease revenue due to higher extension rates attributable to the supply shortage of commercial aircraft. As John discussed earlier, this environment has led to higher lease rates on extensions and has served to increase the value of these aircraft in our fleet.

正如我們之前所說，由於商用飛機供應短缺導致續租率上升，我們預計租賃期滿收入水準將繼續下降。正如約翰之前所討論的，這種環境導致延期租賃的費率上升，並有助於提高我們機隊中這些飛機的價值。

Sales proceeds for the quarter are approximated $540 million from the sale of 14 aircraft. These sales generated $65 million in gains, representing roughly a 14% gain on sale margin. We continue to expect to see healthy margins towards the upper end of our historical range of 8% to 10% based on our current sales pipeline of $1.1 billion. These gains continue to reflect the significant value embedded in our fleet which we carry on the balance sheet at depreciated cost.

本季出售 14 架飛機的銷售收入約為 5.4 億美元。這些銷售產生了 6,500 萬美元的收益，相當於銷售利潤率成長了約 14%。基於我們目前 11 億美元的銷售管道，我們預計利潤率將繼續保持在健康水平，接近 8% 至 10% 的歷史最高水平。這些收益繼續反映了我們船隊的巨大價值，我們以折舊成本將其計入資產負債表。

Moving on to expenses, interest expense rose by approximately $38 million year over year, driven by a 37 basis point increase in our composite cost of funds to 4.14% at year end. Increased financing costs and higher debt balances were the primary contributors to the year-over-year increase in interest expense. However, as compared to the third quarter of '24, our composite rate declined slightly as we benefited from the Fed rate cuts in '24.

談到費用，利息支出年增約 3,800 萬美元，原因是我們的綜合資金成本在年底增加了 37 個基點至 4.14%。融資成本增加和債務餘額增加是利息支出較去年同期成長的主要原因。然而，與24年第三季相比，由於受益於24年聯準會降息，我們的綜合利率略有下降。

At year end, roughly 79% of our borrowings were at fixed rate versus floating just inside our 80% target. We continue to benefit from our largely fixed rate borrowings which have meaningfully moderated the impact of the current interest rate environment.

截至年底，我們約有 79% 的借款為固定利率，而浮動利率則略低於我們的 80% 的目標。我們繼續受益於大部分固定利率借款，這顯著緩解了當前利率環境的影響。

Depreciation expense continues to track the growth of our fleet. SG&A expense declined relative to the prior year while also declining as a percentage of revenue relative to the prior year's quarter. It's also worth noting that we did benefit from a $67 million Russia insurance recovery in the fourth quarter of '23.

折舊費用繼續追蹤我們車隊的成長。銷售、一般及行政開支較上年同期下降，且其占收入的百分比較上年同期也有所下降。另外值得注意的是，我們確實受益於 23 年第四季 6,700 萬美元的俄羅斯保險追償。

Moving on to our financing activities for the quarter, in mid-October, we redeemed our outstanding $250 million Series A preferred stock, utilizing the proceeds from the lower cost $300 million dollar Series D preferred stock that we issued in the third quarter.

繼續討論本季的融資活動，10 月中旬，我們贖回了未償還的 2.5 億美元 A 系列優先股，利用了我們在第三季發行的低成本 3 億美元 D 系列優先股的收益。

During the fourth quarter, we raised approximately $1.3 billion in debt financing. This was comprised primarily of a $1 billion dollar, three-year syndicated unsecured bank term loan priced at one month SOFR plus 1.125%. This capital was primarily sourced from the new Asian banks helping us to grow our bank group to a global base of 83 financial institutions.

第四季度，我們透過債務融資籌集了約 13 億美元。這筆貸款主要包括一筆 10 億美元、為期三年的銀團無擔保銀行定期貸款，利率為一個月 SOFR 加 1.125%。這些資金主要來自亞洲新銀行，幫助我們將銀行集團發展成為擁有 83 家金融機構的全球集團。

Additionally, I'd like to highlight that we have launched a $2 billion commercial paper program in late January of this year. We believe our commercial paper program should serve to reduce our borrowing costs, as CP rates at present are approximately 80 basis points lower than the rate on our revolving credit facility. The CP program also represents another funding channel to further diversify our access to capital.

此外，我想強調的是，我們已於今年 1 月底啟動了一項 20 億美元的商業票據計畫。我們相信，我們的商業票據計畫應該有助於降低我們的借貸成本，因為目前的商業票據利率比我們的循環信用利率低約 80 個基點。CP 計劃也代表了另一個融資管道，可以進一步多樣化我們的資本獲取管道。

Our debt to equity ratio at the end of the fourth quarter was 2.68 times on a GAAP basis, which net of cash on the balance sheet is approximately 2.6 times, relatively flat quarter of a quarter when adjusted for the impact of the timing difference of the preferred stock issuance and redemption last year. And with our lower CapEx outlook for the next few years, we anticipate reaching our leverage target by the end of the year, which should increase our financial flexibility.

以美國通用會計準則計算，我們第四季末的負債權益比為2.68倍，資產負債表上的淨現金約為2.6倍，經調整去年優先股發行與贖回的時間性差異的影響後，該比率與上一季相比持平。由於未來幾年我們的資本支出預期較低，我們預計到今年年底將達到槓桿率目標，這將提高我們的財務靈活性。

Our strong liquidity position of $8.1 billion as of quarter end, $30 billion of unencumbered asset base, and $30 billion of contracted rentals remain key pillars of the strength of our business. As John and Steve outlined, we expect our portfolio lease yields to steadily increase at a moderate pace over the next several years.

截至季末，我們的流動資金狀況強勁，為 81 億美元，無抵押資產基礎為 300 億美元，合約租金為 300 億美元，這仍然是我們業務實力的重要支柱。正如約翰和史蒂夫所概述的，我們預計未來幾年我們的投資組合租賃收益率將以適度的速度穩定成長。

This is driven by an increase in yields on our attractively placed order book aircraft delivering over the next several years, higher than anticipated lease extension rates, given the strong market dynamics that we see persisting through the next several years, the continued seizing of our existing fleet, and the roll off of our COVID era leases. However, turning to margins, we still expect to experience some headwinds given the current elevated interest rate environment which look to keep our adjusted margins in '25 generally around the levels we recorded in '24.

這是由於我們未來幾年交付的訂單飛機的收益率增加，以及租賃延期率高於預期，因為我們看到強勁的市場動態將在未來幾年持續存在，現有機隊的繼續使用，以及我們 COVID 時代租賃的延期。然而，談到利潤率，考慮到當前高利率的環境，我們預計仍會遇到一些阻力，這將使我們25年的調整後利潤率大致保持在24年的水平左右。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Jason for the question and answer session of the call.

說完這些，我想將電話轉回給傑森，讓他參與電話問答環節。

Thanks very much, Greg. This concludes our prepared commentary and remarks for the question and answer session. We ask each participant to limit their time to one question and one follow up. Krista, please open the line for the Q&A session.

非常感謝，格雷格。我們為問答環節所準備的評論和發言到此結束。我們要求每位參與者將他們的時間限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。克里斯塔，請打開問答環節的熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Katherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

Hey, good afternoon everyone, thanks so much for the time. So I think your comments on some of the puts and takes around lease margins and ROE, China's a bit of a headwind this year, some of the lease renewals are going to be a tailwind over the coming years, obviously it's a bit of a slow moving chip, as you turn through the portfolio. But can you just walk us through, what do you think gets you back to mid-teen adjusted pre-tax ROEs that you saw before the pandemic? Or do you think that's achievable and just any rough sense of the timeline would be great?

嘿，大家下午好，非常感謝您抽出時間。因此，我認為您對租賃利潤率和 ROE 的一些看跌和看漲的評論，中國今年有點逆風，未來幾年一些租賃續簽將成為順風，顯然這是一個緩慢移動的籌碼，當您轉動投資組合時。但是，您能否向我們簡單介紹一下，您認為什麼因素能讓您的調整後稅前 ROE 回到疫情之前的中等水平？或者您認為這是可以實現的，只要對時間表有大致的了解就可以了？

Sure, thanks, Katie. I'll take that, and then I'll ask Greg to comment. I think, yes, I do think we are going to be able to achieve that mid-teens level that you spoke about, but it's going to take two to three more years. We've outlined the factors on the positive side and any headwinds, but given all that in consideration, I do believe that that's a reasonable time frame outlook in the two to three year timeframe.

當然，謝謝，凱蒂。我接受這個，然後我會請格雷格發表評論。我認為，是的，我確實認為我們能夠達到您所說的十幾歲的中等水平，但這還需要兩到三年的時間。我們已經概述了積極因素和任何不利因素，但考慮到所有這些因素，我確實認為這是兩到三年時間範圍內合理的時間框架前景。

Yeah, and I think obviously the big question is around the timing of interest rates and lease rates as well. I mean, but at the end of the day we obviously when it comes to capital location too those are other factors that we have. But I don't see any impediment of reaching our ROE target over a longer period of time is just a question of how lease rates and interest rates evolve.

是的，我認為顯然最大的問題也在於利率和租賃利率的時機。我的意思是，但到最後我們顯然也會考慮首都的位置等其他因素。但我認為，在較長時期內，實現 ROE 目標不會受到任何阻礙，這只是租賃率和利率如何演變的問題。

Got it. Makes sense. And then I'm assuming your comment on reaching your leverage target is based on just clear business trend, but correct me if I'm wrong. Based on what you see in the market right now between incremental aircraft M&A or the value of our shares as you were to get back to your target debt to equity faster than you currently expect, what will be there right choice for ALC shareholders?

知道了。有道理。然後我假設您關於實現槓桿目標的評論僅基於明確的業務趨勢，但如果我錯了，請糾正我。根據您目前在市場上看到的情況，在增量飛機併購或我們的股票價值之間，您將比目前預期更快地回到目標債務與股權之間，ALC 股東的正確選擇是什麼？

We'll make that determination at the -

我們將在-

But they're all on top of our list of ideal capital allocation is there any important with a view toward maximizing the value to our shareholders. And once we get to the 2.5 area, which will hopefully happen sometime in the second half of this year, our Board will consider multiple scenarios, including all initiating a buyback program.

但它們都位於我們理想資本配置清單的首位，這對於最大化股東價值具有重要意義。一旦我們進入 2.5 區域（希望在今年下半年某個時候實現），我們的董事會將考慮多種方案，包括啟動回購計畫。

And one other opinions that caveat I mean, it should be obvious, but also when you're looking at capital return to shareholders are our current our stock price has a major bearing on that. And so we never predict where that will be. But obviously, as you know, that's a key consideration, additional color, accounting.

另一個觀點是，我要指出的是，這應該是顯而易見的，但當你考慮股東資本回報時，我們目前的股價對此有重大影響。因此我們永遠無法預測它會在哪裡。但顯然，如你所知，這是一個關鍵的考慮因素，額外的顏色，會計。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬特里 (Terry Ma)。

Thank you. Good afternoon. So I appreciate the comments on the direction of the overall fleet lease yield over the next few years. When you kind of factor in the forward curve and your planned funding, the should we expect the net spread margin to go up a similar amount? Or is that going to be kind of depressed by just overall funding for interest rates?

謝謝。午安.因此，我很欣賞對未來幾年整體機隊租賃收益率走向的評論。當您將遠期曲線和計劃融資考慮在內時，我們是否應該預期淨利差幅度會出現類似的上漲？或者這會因整體融資利率的下降而受到抑制？

Greg?

格雷格？

I think for '25, we thought that we'd be around the same levels for as we did in 24. A lot of that depends on what happens with interest rates. I mean, as I said, a nice steady line up of the lease yields over time, which I think has a pretty powerful lever. But it does take time to make its way through the business.

我認為對於 25 年，我們認為我們的水平將與 24 年大致相同。這很大程度上取決於利率的變動。我的意思是，正如我所說的，租賃收益率隨著時間的推移保持穩定，我認為這具有相當強大的槓桿作用。但它確實需要時間才能在業務上取得成功。

Got it. Okay. And then on the leases that you extend that in the fourth quarter, like so we expect kinds of the incremental pickup in yield a rental revenue to kind of flow through in Q1. And then any more color on the cadence of the remaining renewals? Thank you.

知道了。好的。然後，對於您在第四季延長的租約，我們預計租金收入的增量回升將在第一季實現。還有更多關於剩餘續約節奏的詳細資訊嗎？謝謝。

Yes, I think it those that were signed in Q4 will roll through in '25. And then as we work through the $5 billion of airplanes that are rolling off the next two years, I think that will also provide an uplift to lease yields. So I think you should expect a steady grind higher on the top line.

是的，我認為那些在第四季度簽署的協議將在 25 年生效。然後，隨著我們處理未來兩年內下線的價值 50 億美元的飛機，我認為這也將提高租賃收益率。因此我認為你應該期待營業收入穩定上升。

And then I guess, finally, you need to factor in -- we don't see the market changing given the supply demand dynamics are in play. So we still see airplane shortages for a long extending three to four years based upon what's going on the production side. So I think that's going to create a shortage of airplanes that it's going to contribute to both aircraft values and lease rates being strong for the next several years.

然後我想，最後你需要考慮一下——鑑於供需動態，我們認為市場不會改變。因此，根據生產方面的情況，我們仍然認為飛機短缺的情況將持續三到四年。所以我認為這將造成飛機短缺，並導致未來幾年飛機價值和租賃率的強勁成長。

And coupled Greg and John, with the up accelerations of those leases that were renegotiated in a COVID, has those progressively Liberate us and us to get back to market lease rates, even by definition, core deposit scheme, those aircraft new lessees that will have a continual upward trend on the overall corporate lease yield.

再加上格雷格和約翰，以及在 COVID 疫情中重新談判的租約加速上漲，這些都逐步解放了我們，讓我們回到市場租賃利率，甚至按照定義，核心存款計劃，那些飛機新承租人將對整體企業租賃收益率呈現持續上升的趨勢。

Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的傑米貝克 (Jamie Baker)。

Good afternoon, gentlemen. So an argument that well, a debate that Mark Streeter nine we're having because we don't really argue on. Have you thought about even greater aircraft sales into this strong markets in the mean in terms of potentially proving the value proposition of the equity? Or is there a preference just to maintain its current level of sales and then wait for that pickup in deliveries at some point down the road?

先生們，下午好。因此，我們之所以進行這樣的爭論，是因為我們實際上並沒有爭論過。您是否考慮過在這些強勁的市場中銷售更多的飛機，以潛在地證明股權的價值主張？或者是否傾向於維持當前的銷售水平，然後等待未來某個時候交付量的回升？

That makes sense. Yes. Look, I think as I touched goes, I think and we are looking at that carefully. Sorry, let me just quickly start up and then Steve will turn it over to you. As I said in my remarks, we're looking at to be about $1.5 billion in sales in 2025. That's pretty close to the $1.7 billion we had in 2024. You know, sales programs are largely also opportunistic in the prior quarter.

這很有道理。是的。瞧，我想正如我所觸及的那樣，我想我們正在仔細觀察這一點。抱歉，讓我先快速開始，然後史蒂夫會把它交給你。正如我在發言中所說，我們預計 2025 年的銷售額將達到 15 億美元左右。這與 2024 年的 17 億美元相當接近。您知道，上一季的銷售計劃很大程度上也是機會主義的。

I also talked about the fact that we're being approached just from fairly significant buyers who want to do larger scale, managed portfolios. So with all these factors, we have to look at opportunities and what's in front of us. But generally speaking, I think we're biased towards keeping about the same level of sales.

我還談到這樣一個事實，有些相當重要的買家正在與我們接洽，他們想要建立更大規模的管理投資組合。所以，考慮到所有這些因素，我們必須看清機會和我們面臨的情況。但總體來說，我認為我們傾向於保持大致相同的銷售水準。

Proceeds seems to be a good balance every year. If there is a strongly compelling reason why I believe we should sell X amount of more. It will take a look at it. But I think currently, or plans are to remain about our current levels.

每年的收益似乎都保持著良好的平衡。如果有非常令人信服的理由讓我相信我們應該多賣出 X 份量。它會看一下它。但我認為目前或計劃仍將維持現有水準。

Scandic to add to that arose net gain of about that. So hit all of I think we're also very interested in developing structures where we still maintain that relationship. So the airline customer and bring in a passive institutional investors into the managed structure vehicle while we have a small equity stake.

斯堪迪克也因此獲得了大約該數額的淨收益。所以我認為我們也對建立能夠維持這種關係的結構非常感興趣。因此，航空公司客戶將被動的機構投資者引入管理結構工具，而我們只擁有少量股權。

But you have a large portion of the profitability in the end of lease disposition of those aircraft and a sizable management's key during that tenure of these arrangements. So that could be an avenue where we may add some additional assets to and transfer them to these new entities.

但是，在這些飛機的租賃期結束時，您可以獲得很大一部分盈利，並且在租賃期限內，您可以獲得相當大的管理關鍵收益。因此，這可能是我們添加一些額外資產並將其轉移到這些新實體的途徑。

Okay. That's helpful. All good points on. Thanks, guys. And then second, and I guess it gets back to the comment that Greg made in the prior question about the steady grind. You know, AerCap had this slide that showed the percentage of, let's call it sort of cold media and hop leases as a percentage of total for each year. You know, the cold leases being the least profitable reflecting.

好的。這很有幫助。所有觀點都很好。謝謝大家。其次，我想這又回到了格雷格在前一個問題中關於穩定磨練的評論。您知道，AerCap 有一張幻燈片，顯示了每年冷媒體和跳躍租賃佔總數的百分比。您知道，冷租是利潤最低的表現。

Can you comment on it's just a moment ago, but if we were to focus just on those less profitable leases at Air Lease, would you have an estimate for 2024, 25 and 26 as to what percentage of the book they represented? Just trying to the visual behind the burning off of these leases as they are being overtaken by the stronger deals that you've been talking about? Everything Jones prepared remarks. I hope that's clear. Thanks in advance.

您能否就剛才的問題發表評論，但如果我們只關注 Air Lease 利潤較低的租賃，您能否估計一下 2024 年、25 年和 26 年它們佔賬面的百分比？您只是想直觀地了解這些租約被燒毀的原因，因為它們正在被您一直在談論的更強大的交易所取代？瓊斯準備的一切都經過了評論。我希望這很清楚。提前致謝。

Greg, you want to talk about?

格雷格，你想談談嗎？

Yes, we don't have the page in front of us are familiar with the numbers, and that's why we tried to give that color in the prepared remarks about a$ 5 billion worth of aircraft that were COVID era, leases that are rolling off of the next two years.

是的，我們面前並沒有我們熟悉的數字，這就是為什麼我們試圖在準備好的評論中給出這種色彩，即 COVID 時代價值 50 億美元的飛機租賃，這些租賃將在未來兩年內到期。

I think you can take that as a ratio of the overall fleet. That was our attempt to give some color about how how quickly the ACL can move forward.

我認為你可以將其視為整個艦隊的比例。我們試著闡明 ACL 的進展速度有多快。

Okay. Very helpful. Thanks, everybody.

好的。非常有幫助。謝謝大家。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

Great. Thanks. Apologize for some of the background last year, which as you as you look, John, at these lease renewals that are going on, in fact, are those getting better in this environment? Like in other words, you think about where they'll be up 25 and six versus, you know, what you mentioned casino in terms of upside for narrow bodies, Praxair wide bodies such that it's moving in this environment or hedge keeps?

偉大的。謝謝。對於去年的一些背景，我深表歉意，約翰，當您看到正在進行的這些租約續約時，事實上，在這種環境下，情況是否有所改善？換句話說，您認為它們的價格會上漲 25% 和 6%，而您提到的賭場對於窄體飛機、普萊克斯寬體飛機的上漲空間很大，以至於它在​​這種環境下移動還是對沖保持不變？

Yes, the answer is unequivocally. Yes, the examples I gave on the back of the extensions we executed in the fourth quarter on a single aisles where the lease rates were higher than major concern and about flat on the wide bodies.

是的，答案是毫無疑問的。是的，我給出了我們在第四季度執行的擴展的例子，單通道飛機的租賃費率高於主要關注點，而寬體飛機的租賃費率基本上持平。

Both of those are against the backdrop of typically lease rates step down after the initial lease term on new aircraft. And so there this is a very significant element that we stay. And we see we see a continued continuing to strengthen in 2025 as we look at our leases that are subject to extension and that we're discussing right now.

這兩種情況都是在新飛機的初始租賃期結束後租賃費率通常會下降的背景下發生的。因此，這是我們留下來的一個非常重要的因素。從我們現在討論的可能延期的租約來看，我們看到 2025 年將繼續走強。

So we looked at on a very robust level Medical, but if you were at your leverage target a 10, everything kids as it was today, in other words, the lower level of deliveries into 2025, what would be at the top of your list for deploying capital? Would it be would you be looking at sale leaseback to be looking at a stock buyback with the stock? Is like could you maybe talk about that for a hypothetical standpoint?

因此，我們以非常強勁的水平看待醫療，但如果您的槓桿率目標為 10，所有孩子都像今天一樣，換句話說，到 2025 年的交付水平較低，那麼您在部署資本方面最優先考慮的是什麼？您是否會考慮售後回租或透過股票回購來考慮？您是否可以從假設的角度來談論這個問題？

Well from a hypothetical standpoint, I would just say based on where our stock is today, you know, we look at that very, very strongly and it's a compelling value today. Having said that, as I said earlier, we'll make that determination of such time when we get to our debt equity ratio. But just know very certainly that this is a very strong possible avenue for the company. But again, we withhold our decisions on that until such time as we're we want to be, especially when extra selling aircraft at a 14% premium to their carrying values.

嗯，從假設的角度來看，我只想說，基於我們今天的股票狀況，你知道，我們非常非常重視這一點，而且它今天具有引人注目的價值。話雖如此，正如我之前所說，當我們達到債務權益比率時，我們會做出決定。但可以肯定的是，這對公司來說是一條非常強勁的潛在途徑。但是，我們還是會保留我們的決定，直到我們願意的時候，特別是當額外出售的飛機價格比其帳面價值高出 14% 時。

And your stock is trading below book?

你的股票交易價格低於帳面價值嗎？

Right.

正確的。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Hillary Cacanando, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的希拉蕊·卡卡南多。

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. And because this confluence of a high level and not specific PI. in China situation, I'm hoping you could answer it, but I was wondering if those are the buyout agreement between gas and coal AMI or could there be any impact of the less the way?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。而且由於這種融合的水平較高且不是特定的 PI。在中國的情況下，我希望您能回答，但我想知道這些是否是天然氣和煤炭 AMI 之間的收購協議，或者是否會對這種方式產生任何影響？

I guess what specifically do you think there's any chance budget robust second titles in a good time for our path to the less delay, which I don't think the lesson we've learned a lot if that's even a possibility. But I wanted to see if there's any like high level thoughts you could provide on a possible to fire.

我想您具體認為有沒有可能在合適的時間推出預算充足的第二部作品，從而減少延遲，如果這有可能的話，我認為我們已經學到了很多教訓。但我想看看您是否能就可能發生的火災提供任何高層次的想法。

Clearly, we're just we're just not going to comment on that curve. On top of that asset again as much I guess when you talked about taking typically you guys to get to them a pool of all the time.

顯然，我們只是不想對那條曲線發表評論。我想，當你們談到通常的做法時，你們會再次將這項資產放在最重要的位置，以便你們能夠一直擁有一個資產池。

Are you assuming that interest rates remain at the phone if the current level on if there's an interest rate hike or is there more cuts if you go back to the to the constant change?

您是否認為，如果利率上調，利率將保持在當前水平，或者如果回到不斷變化中，利率是否會進一步下調？

Greg. I think a lot of it depends on where interest rates are. I mean, I think the mid-teen target as more of a longer term target. There's nothing fundamentally different in our business today. Just going to take a little bit of time for that started to make its way through our $30 billion balance sheet.

格雷格。我認為這很大程度上取決於利率水準。我的意思是，我認為中等青少年目標更像是長期目標。如今，我們的業務並沒有什麼根本的改變。只需要花一點時間，這些錢就會開始進入我們 300 億美元的資產負債表。

So if anything, I would emphasize it's going to take time to make it work its way through. And some of it, of course, will depend on how quickly and which direction interest adjustments. Since our last call, although the clips and anticipate only affects our incremental borrowings, all of our existing bonds will issue two, three, four years ago of and demand will often say the interest paid on those bonds is what it is.

因此，如果有任何事，我想強調的是，這需要時間來實現。當然，這在一定程度上取決於利率調整的速度和方向。自上次召集以來，儘管利率削減和預期僅影響我們的增量借款，但我們現有的所有債券都是在兩年、三年、四年前發行的，需求通常會決定這些債券支付的利息。

We can't change that. But if interest rates improve for us, it will affect all of our short-term bank borrowings. And any new bond offerings, as Greg said, of that number would have to be pretty substantial seven major impact on the portfolio debt coming down proportionately final home.

我們無法改變這一點。但如果我們的利率提高，這將影響我們所有的短期銀行借款。正如格雷格所說，任何新債券的發行都必須對投資組合債務產生相當大的影響，最終導致投資組合債務按比例下降。

Stephen Trent, Citi.

花旗銀行的史蒂芬‧特倫特 (Stephen Trent)。

Yes, good afternoon. Gentlemen, and thanks for taking my question on a quick one here are to quickly shift. First, when do you think about what may not, but tariffs today? And I know there's not a lot of information, but is it conceivable that leasing to actually gain a little favor over aircraft purchases in the case of Airbus or and by our customers here on that, the impact of a tariff could be rolled over the long life of at least as opposed to a one-time hit from purchasing on spot? Or I know there's not a lot of information on just sort of high-level trying to get my being around it.

是的，下午好。先生們，謝謝大家回答我的問題，以下讓我們快速討論一下。首先，您什麼時候會想到今天可能不會發生的關稅？我知道目前的資訊不多，但是否可以想像，就空中巴士或我們的客戶而言，租賃飛機實際上比購買飛機更有利，而關稅的影響至少可以長期延續，而不是像現場購買那樣受到一次性打擊？或者我知道沒有太多關於高層的資訊來讓我了解它。

Well, the first answer is that any cash taxes on the type of transactions rather than leasing or finance lease operating lease, the airline, the legacy airline operator, is responsible for any such tariffs or duties or taxes. The second point I want to make is there a very large percentage of Airbus aircraft. Our people are manufactured in the U.S. components engines, avionics and same goes for Boeing.

嗯，第一個答案是，對於任何交易類型（而不是租賃或融資租賃經營租賃）的現金稅，航空公司，即傳統航空運營商，都應對任何此類關稅或稅款負責。我想說的第二點是空中巴士飛機所佔的比例非常大。我們的員工在美國製造零件、發動機、航空電子設備，波音公司也是如此。

A lot of the components that go into Boeing aircraft are manufactured outside the United States. So it's going to be a pretty cool complex calculation to figure out what percentage on Airbus HC. 21 U.S. MI of even hit the euro versus the same with volume. I mean, big components of the $0.77 and 70 sevens are manufactured outside the US.

波音飛機的許多零件都是在美國以外生產的。因此，要確定空中巴士 HC 的百分比，將是一個非常複雜的計算。21 美元的 MI 甚至對歐元產生了相同的交易量。我的意思是，0.77 美元和 70 美元的 7 號硬幣的大部分零件都是在美國以外製造的。

Very helpful. I definitely appreciate the color. And just one at a high level one for you here. I think again, some other previous calls, you guys had not expected aircraft supply that normalize for a couple of years. And on what you're seeing in the tea leaves from your suppliers, you have your views on that changed at all. Do you still think there are a couple of years away from normalization of aircraft production? Thank you.

非常有幫助。我非常欣賞這個顏色。這裡只為您介紹一個高等級的。我再次思考，在之前的一些電話會議中，你們沒有預料到飛機供應會在幾年內恢復正常。從供應商提供的茶葉來看，您對此的看法已經完全改變。您仍認為距離飛機生產正常化還需要幾年的時間嗎？謝謝。

No views have changed whatsoever. We see this as a multi-year, Tom, you know, over multi-years, we don't see any change at all. We think of aircraft are struggling in short supply. The manufacturers are not going to achieve nearly the rate of production that they would want to achieve where they would need to make up for the last several years. So we're quite convinced we're in this for a fairly long period of time.

觀點沒有任何改變。我們認為這是一個多年的問題，湯姆，你知道，多年來，我們根本沒有看到任何變化。我們認為飛機正面臨供應短缺的困境。製造商的生產速度根本無法達到他們想要達到的水平，他們需要在過去幾年內彌補這一差距。所以我們確信我們會在這個領域堅持相當長的一段時間。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅恩愛潑斯坦 (Ron Epstein)。

Okay. Good evening. That run. So maybe just follow-up on Steve's last question. Just any sense when the industry will actually be back Ecova premiums? I mean, how long is it going to take the industry itself out of the whole in terms of the shortage of supply, if anything wrong?

好的。晚安.那次奔跑。所以也許只是對史蒂夫的最後一個問題的後續答案。什麼時候業界才能真正恢復 Ecova 保費？我的意思是，如果出現問題，整個產業需要多長時間才能擺脫供應短缺的困境？

If anything wrong, we have been stretching out that time frame, not shortening it.I'll give you an example. The appetite of the airlines for spare engines.To cover for engines that are in the shop.For much longer periods and with longer lead times to an overhaul facility to even just get in.Creates a shortage of new engines, because today, a larger percentage of the production of CFME.GTS engines.

如果有什麼問題的話，我們只是在延長這個時間範圍，而不是縮短它。航空公司對備用發動機的需求。

And even Rolls-Royce trance engines.Are being allocated to cover airline operations today, AOG today.And so that is a constraining factor on on both Boeing and Airbus, getting enough engines to be able to increase production rates.So that, that's one factor.

甚至勞斯萊斯的 Trance 發動機。

The second factor is that during the pandemic, a lot of the smaller subcontractors for both airframe and engines and avionics and DFT seats and galleys.Reduce their staffing and cut back on their On their infrastructure, and now they're being asked again to ramp it up, which means they have to invest more in machinery, and digital tools, get their hands on labor, that's trained.

第二個因素是，在疫情期間，許多負責機身、發動機、航空電子設備、DFT 座椅和廚房的小型分包商都減少了人員，削減了基礎設施建設，現在他們又被要求加大力度，這意味著他們必須在機械、數位工具方面投入更多，並獲得經過培訓的勞動力。

And so those are all factors that are limiting the ability.Of the supply chain to get back to what you said was pre-pandemic.And it and it's not an overnight process, as you can imagine.But I would say the engine situation is the most visible to us.

這些都是限制供應鏈恢復到您所說的疫情前狀態的因素。

In all the discussions we have with airlines.

在我們與航空公司進行的所有討論中。

And would you say the airlines are Getting accustomed to flying older equipment.Meaning that maybe your leases will just last longer for the foreseeable period.

您是否認為航空公司已經習慣使用較舊的設備？

Of we we're seeing that, yeah, that's we're seeing that particularly in North America.Where with the refurbished old Northwest Airlines A220 CEO.That's more than 25, in some cases 30 years old.With the refreshed interior, the customer who gets on a jetway doesn't have any clue how old that aircraft is because most of them have been freshened up.So a lot of the 767s, earlier generation 737s, HG 20s, HP21.Are staying in service longer than what was originally anticipated. And this is to cover growth in traffic.As well as the delays in the deliveries that they've contracted for.All of that leads to us being asked to provide more aircraft than we have.Where supply is limited and demand far outpaces our ability to get enough new airplanes.

是的，我們看到了這種情況，尤其是在北美。這是為了彌補交通量的增長，以及合約交付的延遲。

And then maybe just one last related question and and again this would be constrained by the supply chain, of course, but it kind of all else being equal, do you think that the industry needs a third supplier now? Because it seems like 2 isn't enough.

然後也許只剩下最後一個相關問題了，當然這會受到供應鏈的限制，但在其他所有條件相同的情況下，您認為該行業現在需要第三個供應商嗎？因為 2 似乎不夠。

Well, if you look at the size of the overall commercial jet population, And the forecast that it's going to go to about 40,000 airplanes. In the next 6 or 7 years.There's definitely room for a third party.

嗯，如果你看一下商用噴射機的總體數量，預計它將達到約 40,000 架。在未來的6到7年內，第三方肯定還有發展的空間。

But I think that third party.And the ones that that's talked about Moses's embryer would need a partner in that program.That has financial key pockets.

但我認為第三方，也就是摩西胚胎幹細胞研究計畫的合作夥伴，需要有資金支持。

But that is one possible alternative, and I know the guys down in Brazil are working on that very hard.The big question in our minds, Rob, is what engines would go on that airplane.Because if it's the same old catalog leap.1 A1B or the current GPF which hopefully will get upgraded in 2027. What engine would somebody put on that because that is a big factor. There needs to be a step change improvement in the propulsion system.Not so much on fuel burn, but more on reliability dependability and life on the wing.

但這是一種可能的選擇，我知道巴西的人正在努力解決這個問題。人們會在其上安裝什麼引擎，因為這是一個重要因素。推進系統需要有一個逐步的改進。

Yeah that makes sense.Yeah.Cool. All right, thank you.

是的，這很有道理。好的，謝謝。

Katherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的凱瑟琳·奧布萊恩。

Oh thanks so much for the follow up. I just wanted to come back to the $5 billion number you gave, it was really helpful just helping us think through like what percentage of book values, tied to these COVID and releases over the next couple years, just in very rough numbers, understanding, the backdrop might be different today. It doesn't sound like that's what you guys think. Sounds like you think it might be better, but if you could snap your fingers and write those leases at today's lease rates, like what would the upside be on that pool of aircraft? Thanks so much for the extra time.

哦，非常感謝您的跟進。我只是想回到你給出的 50 億美元這個數字，它真的很有幫助，幫助我們思考未來幾年與這些 COVID 和發布相關的賬面價值百分比，只是非常粗略的數字，理解，今天的背景可能會有所不同。這聽起來和你們想的不一樣。聽起來您認為這樣可能會更好，但是如果您能彈指一揮就按照今天的租賃價格簽訂這些租約，那麼這些飛機的利潤空間會有多大呢？非常感謝您抽出時間。

It's hard to say because it depends on the airline.The length of the leaf extension. Or the economics of shifting the aircraft and other airlines, but the numbers could be anywhere from 30% to 50% higher.And the lease rates we currently enjoy. So as these leases come off that sort of charity period, I call it to our customers to keep them alive and kicking, as those progressively come off.Between now and the fourth quarter of 2026, we are going to see marked improvement in the lease yields on those aircraft. Especially since they're being depreciated. So the factor of the depreciated cost versus lease rate is going to be improving every quarter. Once these charity periods are over.

這很難說，因為這取決於航空公司。或轉移飛機和其他航空公司的經濟效益，但數字可能會高出 30% 到 50%。因此，隨著這些租賃的慈善期結束，我呼籲我們的客戶保持它們的活力，因為這些租賃會逐步結束。特別是因為它們正在貶值。因此，折舊成本與租賃率的比率每季都會改善。一旦這些慈善期結束。

Yes, so doubly beneficial.

是的，因此益處加倍。

Greg can give you color. Greg can comment on.Like how much of this comes off.Every quarter or every 6 months.

格雷格可以給你色彩。格雷格可以評論一下，比如說，每季或每六個月會實現多少。

Yeah, I mean, we gave some color that we thought that would modestly increase over the next 4 years. I think what that means is somewhere between 150 and 200 basis points in yield improvement over that period of time, over the 4 year period.

是的，我的意思是，我們給了一些顏色，我們認為這些顏色在未來 4 年內會適度增加。我認為這意味著在 4 年期間內收益率將提高 150 到 200 個基點。

Per year, Greg or the total period sorry okay.

每年，格雷格或總期間抱歉好。

Keep in mind, Katie, we've got a.Basically just about a $30 billion dollar net book of aircraft and so these significant least rate increases are very helpful, but it's trying to steer a pretty big aircraft carrier. So it just takes a little bit more time to push the carrier around versus a little speedboat.

請記住，凱蒂，我們基本上有價值約 300 億美元的飛機淨帳面價值，因此這些顯著的最低費率增長非常有幫助，但它試圖駕駛一艘相當大的航空母艦。因此，推動航母比推動小型快艇需要稍微多一點的時間。

Totally understood thanks again for the extra time.

完全理解，再次感謝您抽出的時間。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session. Mr. Arnold, I'll turn the call back over to you.

我們的問答環節到此結束。阿諾德先生，我會把電話轉回給您。

Thanks everyone for participating in our fourth-quarter call. We look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Krista, thanks for your assistance, and please disconnect the line.

感謝大家參加我們的第四季電話會議。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。克里斯塔，謝謝你的幫助，請斷開線路。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。