AAR Corp (AIR) 2013 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the AAR Corp third-quarter fiscal 2013 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 AAR Corp 2013 財政年度第三季財報電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節，屆時將給予指示。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce our host for today, Mr. Chris Mason, Director of Corporate Communications. Sir, please go ahead.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我想介紹一下今天的主持人，企業傳訊總監 Chris Mason 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Karen. And good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AAR's third-quarter fiscal year 2013 earnings conference call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that comments made this afternoon may include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as noted in our news release and the Risk Factors section of the Company's Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2012. In providing forward-looking statements, the Company assumes no obligation to provide updates to reflect future circumstances or anticipated or unanticipated events. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to AAR's Chairman and CEO, David Storch.

謝謝你，凱倫。女士們、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 AAR 2013 財年第三季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天下午發表的評論可能包括1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述，如我們的新聞稿和公司10-K 表格的風險因素部分所述。現在，我想將電話轉給 AAR 董事長兼執行長 David Storch。

Thanks, Chris, and good afternoon. And thank you for joining us today to discuss our third-quarter results, which in general, was another solid quarter. With me today in beautiful Chicago is Tim Romenesko, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Mike Sharp, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝克里斯，下午好。感謝您今天加入我們討論我們的第三季業績，總的來說，這是另一個穩健的季度。今天與我一起來到美麗的芝加哥的是我們的總裁兼營運長 Tim Romenesko；和我們的財務長麥克夏普。

I'd like to start with some of the major financial highlights. Consolidated sales in the quarter were $520 million, which is down slightly, 2.6% compared to the prior year. Similar to our second quarter, we saw continued positive trends in the commercial aftermarket and solid performance at Airlift, offset by reduced sales at our mobility products unit. Consolidated operating margins in the quarter were 7.2%, which compared favorably to last year's margin of 6.7%. We expect to continue to drive margin improvement in the fourth quarter. Earnings per share in the third quarter were $0.46, which compares favorably with last year's results of $0.41, when you adjust for the tax benefit of $0.09 that was recorded last year during the third quarter.

我想先介紹一些主要的財務亮點。該季度綜合銷售額為 5.2 億美元，比去年同期小幅下降 2.6%。與第二季類似，我們看到商業售後市場的持續積極趨勢和 Airlift 的穩健業績，但被我們的行動產品部門銷售額的減少所抵消。本季綜合營業利益率為 7.2%，優於去年 6.7% 的利潤率。我們預計第四季將繼續推動利潤率改善。如果對去年第三季記錄的 0.09 美元的稅收優惠進行調整，則第三季的每股收益為 0.46 美元，與去年的 0.41 美元相比表現良好。

We generated strong cash flow in the quarter, and continue to use this cash to reduce debt and provide value to our shareholders. Since the end of February last year, we reduced net debt by $86 million, saving approximately $7 million in annualized interest costs. Also since last February, we have purchased 620,000 shares of our stock on the open market for $8.4 million, and have paid $12 million in dividends. The number of shares used in the diluted earnings per share calculation will be 3.1 million shares lower as a result of the third-quarter convertible bond repurchase. We estimate of the year-end diluted share count to be 38.6 million shares, compared to 42.6 million shares in the fourth quarter of last year.

我們在本季度產生了強勁的現金流，並繼續利用這些現金來減少債務並為股東提供價值。自去年2月底以來，我們減少了淨債務8,600萬美元，年化利息成本節省了約700萬美元。同樣自去年 2 月以來，我們已在公開市場上以 840 萬美元的價格購買了 62 萬股股票，並支付了 1,200 萬美元的股息。由於第三季可轉債回購，用於計算稀釋每股盈餘的股票數量將減少310萬股。我們預計年底攤薄後的股數為 3,860 萬股，而去年第四季為 4,260 萬股。

With regard to our operating environment, our global commercial business continues to benefit from a generally healthy airline industry, and to a lesser degree, a strong OEM build cycle. Further, there are a number of beneficial dynamics that are playing to our competitive strengths. But mostly there's a clear continuation of the trend towards outsourcing. As customers seek a more comprehensive solution, this drives them to larger, better capitalized, more diversified service providers like AAR. We have experienced navigating the defense cycle both up and down. Flexibility is key, and we are confident that we can make the necessary changes to the business to achieve accessible returns. We will continue to manage our exposure to the operational tempo in our portfolio, and remain well-positioned to capture the opportunities that exist in the market, even during a downturn.

就我們的營運環境而言，我們的全球商業業務繼續受益於整體健康的航空業，以及在較小程度上受益於強大的 OEM 建造週期。此外，還有許多有益的動力正在發揮我們的競爭優勢。但大多數情況下，外包趨勢明顯持續。隨著客戶尋求更全面的解決方案，這促使他們轉向規模更大、資本更好、更多元化的服務提供者，例如 AAR。我們經歷過防禦週期的上下波動。靈活性是關鍵，我們有信心對業務進行必要的改變，以實現可觀的回報。我們將繼續管理投資組合的營運節奏，並保持有利地位，即使在經濟低迷時期也能抓住市場中存在的機會。

Now I would like to provide some comments around specific segment performance. Within our Aviation Services segment, the strong commercial aftermarket is benefiting our airframe maintenance and parts support businesses. Each is performing well and continues to demonstrate an ability to grow. We have been successful in growing our MRO profitability as each of our established facilities is operating close to capacity, and Duluth is ramping up. Demand remains high, our efficiency and quality levels are good, and our customers continue to be happy with our cost saving value proposition. We believe this is the right formula to continue to build market share, create scale and further improve on our margins.

現在我想就具體的細分市場表現提供一些評論。在我們的航空服務部門，強大的商業售後市場正在使我們的機身維護和零件支援業務受益。每個人都表現良好，並且持續展現成長的能力。我們已經成功地提高了 MRO 盈利能力，因為我們每個已建立的設施都已接近產能運行，而德盧斯的產能正在增加。需求仍然很高，我們的效率和品質水準良好，我們的客戶繼續對我們節省成本的價值主張感到滿意。我們相信，這是繼續擴大市場份額、擴大規模並進一步提高利潤率的正確公式。

Our strategy across our commercial Aviation Services business is to build on the strong relationships we have with the airlines and leasing companies by doing high-quality work faster, and with deep attention to detail at a greater level of efficiency than our customers can do for themselves, or that our competitors can offer. We believe that this value-added position also creates an opportunity to build our services business with the US government as they look to do more with less. Over time, we are confident we can leverage these relationships to create additional growth, both in our airframe MRO and parts support businesses. While they offer separate services, these businesses have a common customer base.

我們的商業航空服務業務策略是建立在我們與航空公司和租賃公司之間的牢固關係的基礎上，更快地完成高品質的工作，並以比客戶自己更高的效率高度關注細節。我們的競爭對手可以提供的。我們相信，這種增值地位也為我們與美國政府建立服務業務創造了機會，因為他們希望用更少的錢做更多的事情。隨著時間的推移，我們有信心能夠利用這些關係在機身 MRO 和零件支援業務方面創造額外的成長。雖然它們提供單獨的服務，但這些企業擁有共同的客戶群。

We are demonstrating an excellent broad set of capabilities to our customers, and we believe we can win incremental business. This includes for supply chain some discrete higher-margin aftermarket services. A good example is our recent signing of a contract from Medical Logistics Support, which puts us in the defense logistics market with a new product offering. We are focused on executing it well to demonstrate our ability to efficiently manage supply chains, regardless of the categories. Our Airlift business performed well in the third quarter, meeting or exceeding all customer performance measures. This is a significant mission-critical business. And I would note that funding for the contracts within this unit are coming out of the overseas contingency fund, which is not subject to sequestration. We have continued to provide superior levels of operational readiness and performance that have earned the support and trust our of our customers. And we expect longer-term we will open other doors in new regions, new contracts and adjacent markets.

我們正在向客戶展示一系列出色的廣泛能力，我們相信我們能夠贏得增量業務。這包括供應鏈中一些離散的高利潤售後服務。一個很好的例子是我們最近與醫療後勤支援公司簽署了一份合同，這使我們在國防後勤市場上推出了新產品。我們致力於很好地執行它，以展示我們有效管理供應鏈的能力，無論類別如何。我們的空運業務在第三季表現良好，達到或超越了所有客戶績效指標。這是一項重要的關鍵任務業務。我要指出的是，該單位內的合約資金來自海外緊急基金，該基金不受扣押的限制。我們持續提供卓越水準的營運準備和績效，贏得了客戶的支持和信任。我們預計，從長遠來看，我們將在新地區、新合約和鄰近市場打開其他大門。

I'd like to now turn to our Technology Products segment. We are pleased with the overall performance in our cargo systems business. We have recently consolidated the leadership structure for these businesses, and are positioned to take better advantage of the strong OEM build cycle. Our goal is to be the clear leader in the cargo systems category through a combination of innovative intellectual property Tier 1 relationships with the OEMs, and a strong engineering aftermarket support capability. We are on a number of platforms, including the Airbus A320 family, the A330, the A340, and the soon-to-be-certified A350. On Boeing, we are working on the 747-400, 767, and the new 747-8. On the A400M program, our customer recently accepted our first entry into service cargo system, bringing that program one step closer to contributing to results. Our Nordisk business has developed a low-weight shipping container that is beginning to gain traction in the market. We recently won a meaningful order for this product that will begin shipping in our fourth quarter.

我現在想談談我們的技術產品部門。我們對貨運系統業務的整體表現感到滿意。我們最近整合了這些業務的領導結構，並準備好更好地利用強大的 OEM 建構週期。我們的目標是透過與原始設備製造商的創新智慧財產權一級關係以及強大的工程售後支援能力相結合，成為貨運系統領域的明顯領導者。我們使用多個平台，包括空中巴士 A320 系列、A330、A340 和即將獲得認證的 A350。在波音，我們正在開發 747-400、767 和新型 747-8。在 A400M 專案上，我們的客戶最近接受了我們首次進入服務貨運系統，使該專案離實現成果又更近了一步。我們的 Nordisk 業務開發了一種輕質貨櫃，該貨櫃已開始在市場上受到關注。我們最近贏得了該產品的一份有意義的訂單，該訂單將於第四季度開始發貨。

During the period, we also completed the sale of 10 737-400s to the lessee, which further reduced our investment in aircraft leasing. We are now down to four aircraft held in joint ventures and two that are wholly owned. I would note that while we have made a conscious decision to drive down our invested capital in this business, our mix of capabilities puts us in an excellent position to continue to target aircraft modification, re-marketing and sales. Along these lines, we will be delivering the first of the commercial derivative aircraft to the Colombian Air Force in the fourth quarter, with the second aircraft scheduled for delivery in Q1 of fiscal 2014.

期內，我們也完成了向承租人出售10 737-400飛機，進一步減少了我們在飛機租賃方面的投入。我們現在擁有四架合資飛機和兩架全資飛機。我要指出的是，雖然我們有意識地決定減少在該業務中的投資資本，但我們的能力組合使我們處於有利地位，可以繼續瞄準飛機改裝、再行銷和銷售。按照這些思路，我們將在第四季向哥倫比亞空軍交付第一架商用衍生飛機，第二架飛機則計劃於 2014 財年第一季交付。

Before I turn the call over to Mike, I would like to stress that we have a leadership position in each of our core businesses that create significant organic growth opportunities and enables them to contribute to strong cash flow generation for the Company. We have been able to use this cash to consistently drive value to our equity shareholders in a number of ways, including reducing our leverage. I will reserve a few comments for closing. But I would like to now turn the call over to Mike to take a closer look at our third-quarter financials.

在將電話轉給麥克之前，我想強調，我們在每項核心業務中都處於領導地位，這些業務創造了重要的有機成長機會，並使它們能夠為公司產生強勁的現金流做出貢獻。我們能夠利用這些現金以多種方式持續為我們的股東創造價值，包括降低我們的槓桿率。我將保留一些評論作為結束。但我現在想把電話轉給麥克，讓他仔細看看我們第三季的財務狀況。

Thank you, David, and good afternoon, everyone. As is customary at this time, I would like to provide more color around the financial performance of the Company during the third quarter, including comments around interest, cash flow, capital expenditures and capital structure. And I will be around the rest of the day to answer any questions that you may have.

謝謝大衛，大家下午好。按照目前的慣例，我想就公司第三季度的財務業績提供更多信息，包括對利息、現金流量、資本支出和資本結構的評論。我將在當天剩餘時間回答您可能提出的任何問題。

Consolidated revenues for the third quarter, as David mentioned, were $520 million, which is down from last year, due to the reduction in sales to the government and defense markets. In the Aviation Services segment, sales increased 9% to $408 million, with the increase all coming from organic growth. We saw strength at our parts support businesses, driven by program activity. And as David described, each of our major airframe facilities are operating well and at high-capacity utilization. As you know, we recently opened a fifth MRO in Duluth, which will add four maintenance lines at peak capacity, or approximately 400,000 man hours. Late in the third quarter, our customer added a second line to the facility. And we expect this facility to ramp at a measured pace over the balance of the calendar year. The reported gross profit margin in the Aviation Services segment was 14.5%. After you adjust for the loss on inventory, the gross margin is 16.7%. This compares favorably to the prior year, but down on a sequential basis, primarily due to lower MRO margins as we bring in new work. We expect our margins to improve in the fourth quarter in this segment.

正如 David 所提到的，第三季的綜合收入為 5.2 億美元，比去年有所下降，因為政府和國防市場的銷售額減少。在航空服務領域，銷售額成長 9%，達到 4.08 億美元，成長全部來自有機成長。在計劃活動的推動下，我們看到了零件支援業務的實力。正如大衛所描述的，我們的每個主要機身設施都運作良好且產能利用率很高。如您所知，我們最近在德盧斯開設了第五家 MRO，它將在高峰產能時增加 4 條維護線，約 40 萬工時。第三季末，我們的客戶在該設施中增加了第二條生產線。我們預計該設施將在今年餘下的時間裡以適度的速度增長。航空服務部門的報告毛利率為14.5%。調整庫存損失後，毛利率為 16.7%。與前一年相比，這一數字較好，但環比有所下降，這主要是由於我們引入新工作時 MRO 利潤率較低。我們預計第四季度該領域的利潤率將有所改善。

Turning to the Technology Products segment. We've now lapped the timing of our Telair and Nordisk acquisitions, and so their sales are included in both the current and prior years. The year-over-year decline in sales reported in this segment was due to lower sales at our mobility products unit, although sales at mobility were stable on a sequential basis. We also experienced a reduction in sales and earnings at our cargo systems businesses, due to the timing of systems and spares sales, which we expect to see in the fourth quarter. Gross profit margin in the Technology Products segment was 15.4%, and was unfavorably impacted by the softer results at cargo systems. We do expect improved gross margin performance in Q4 in this segment, as well.

轉向技術產品領域。我們現在已經確定了收購 Telair 和 Nordisk 的時間，因此它們的銷售額既包含在當前年份也包含在往年中。該部門報告的銷售額同比下降是由於我們的行動產品部門的銷售額下降，儘管行動產品部門的銷售額環比穩定。由於系統和備件銷售的時間表（我們預計將在第四季度看到），我們​​的貨運系統業務的銷售額和收益也出現了下降。科技產品部門的毛利率為 15.4%，受到貨運系統績效疲軟的不利影響。我們確實預計該領域第四季的毛利率表現也會有所改善。

I would like to provide a bit more detail on the two transactions discussed in this afternoon's release. Although the two items largely offset each other, they did impact certain reported ratios, including gross profit margin and SG&A as a percent of sales. During the quarter, we were able to negotiate a final payment on the earn-out liability that we had established for the Airinmar acquisition. The final settlement was $9 million less than we had accrued. And accordingly, the $9 million was recorded as a gain, and we recorded it as a reduction in SG&A expense. Also, we entered into a sales agreement with a buyer to acquire certain airframe inventory, and entered into a separate agreement with the same buyer to market the inventory for a commission. We received $9.1 million cash in the third quarter, and recorded a $9.1 million loss on inventory as a result of the transaction. We will recognize revenue from this transaction as the inventory is sold to third parties. After you adjust for the $9 million gain on the settlement of the Airinmar earn-out, SG&A as a percent of sales was 9.8%, which is up slightly with last year, but in line with our overall expectations. SG&A expenses were $500,000 less than the prior year, so we are doing an effective job of controlling, and in some categories, reducing our spend. Net interest expense for the third quarter was $9.8 million, a reduction of $400,000 from last year, due to overall lower debt levels.

我想提供有關今天下午發布的兩筆交易的更多細節。儘管這兩個項目在很大程度上相互抵消，但它們確實影響了某些報告的比率，包括毛利率和銷售、管理及管理費用佔銷售額的百分比。在本季度，我們能夠就收購 Airinmar 時確定的獲利負債進行最終付款談判。最終的和解金額比我們應計金額少了 900 萬美元。因此，900 萬美元被記錄為收益，我們將其記錄為 SG&A 費用的減少。此外，我們還與一位買家簽訂了一份銷售協議，以獲取某些機身庫存，並與同一買家簽訂了另一份協議，以收取佣金來銷售庫存。我們在第三季收到了 910 萬美元的現金，並因交易而損失了 910 萬美元的庫存。當庫存出售給第三方時，我們將確認此交易的收入。在對 Airinmar 獲利結算中的 900 萬美元收益進行調整後，SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比為 9.8%，比去年略有上升，但符合我們的整體預期。 SG&A 費用比前一年減少了 50 萬美元，因此我們正在有效地控制支出，並在某些類別中減少支出。由於整體債務水準較低，第三季淨利息支出為 980 萬美元，比去年減少 40 萬美元。

As David discussed, we remain very focused on generating cash and reducing our debt obligations. We target free cash flow at least equal to net income, and are well ahead of that this fiscal year. During the quarter, we generated $27.5 million of cash from operations. And our capital expenditures for Q3 were $4.8 million. Our year-to-date cash from operations is $87.8 million. And year-to-date free cash flow is $75 million. Net debt to capital was 41% at February 28, 2013, down from 44% a year ago. Depreciation and amortization, including amortization of stock-based compensation, was $23 million for the third quarter.

正如大衛所討論的，我們仍然非常注重創造現金和減少債務。我們的目標是自由現金流至少等於淨利潤，而本財年遠遠領先於此目標。本季度，我們從營運中產生了 2750 萬美元的現金。我們第三季的資本支出為 480 萬美元。我們年初至今的營運現金為 8,780 萬美元。年初至今的自由現金流為 7,500 萬美元。截至 2013 年 2 月 28 日，淨債務資本率為 41%，低於一年前的 44%。第三季的折舊和攤提（包括股票薪資攤提）為 2,300 萬美元。

As it relates to our capital structure, in late January, certain holders of the 1.75% Convertible Notes surrendered their securities for purchase by us pursuant to the terms of the indenture. The aggregate amount surrendered by the bond holders and purchased by us was $62.8 million. In order to fund the purchase of these notes, we principally used cash on hand and free cash flow generated during Q3. In addition to these note purchases, we entered into an exchange transaction with another holder of the 1.75% convertible notes, whereby the holder exchanged their $22.7 million note, plus $7.3 million cash, for a new $30 million note. This new note was priced to yield 3.75% and matures on February 1, 2015. The underlying shares on the 1.75% Convertible Notes have historically been included in our share count for diluted earnings per share purposes. As a result of the Convertible Note transactions in the third quarter, 900,000 shares came out of the share count in Q3. And an additional 2.2 million will come out in Q4. As David indicated previously, for modeling purposes, we recommend you use approximately 38.6 million shares for your fourth-quarter share count.

由於與我們的資本結構有關，1 月下旬，1.75% 可轉換票據的某些持有人放棄了其證券，以供我們根據契約條款購買。債券持有人放棄並由我們購買的總額為 6,280 萬美元。為了為購買這些票據提供資金，我們主要使用手頭現金和第三季產生的自由現金流。除了購買這些票據外，我們還與另一位1.75% 可轉換票據的持有人進行了交換交易，該持有人將其2,270 萬美元票據加上730 萬美元現金換成一張新的3,000 萬美元票據。這張新票據的定價為 3.75%，於 2015 年 2 月 1 日到期。由於第三季的可轉換票據交易，第三季的股票數量減少了 90 萬股。第四季也將新增 220 萬個。正如 David 之前指出的，出於建模目的，我們建議您使用大約 3860 萬股作為第四季度的股票數量。

Lastly, with respect to guidance, as you have seen, we have increased our full-year guidance again this quarter. This reflects our third-quarter performance, and visibility that we have into Q4. We now expect fiscal 2013 diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.78 to $1.82 per share. Thanks for your attention, and I will now turn the call back over to David for some closing comments.

最後，關於指導，正如您所看到的，我們本季再次提高了全年指導。這反映了我們第三季的業績以及我們對第四季的了解。我們目前預計 2013 財年攤薄後每股收益將在每股 1.78 美元至 1.82 美元之間。感謝您的關注，我現在將把電話轉回給大衛，以徵求一些結束語。

Thanks, Mike, and a solid report. We are pleased to have delivered another good quarter, and we expect a strong finish to our fiscal year. Even so, we are not satisfied. We are driving hard to produce better levels of profitability across our business. And as we look at our growth opportunities, we will focus on building out our leadership positions to make our value proposition more compelling to our customers. So with that, I would like to thank you for your participation. And madam operator, we are now ready to take questions.

謝謝麥克，還有一份可靠的報告。我們很高興又實現了一個良好的季度，並期望我們的財政年度取得圓滿成功。即便如此，我們仍不滿足。我們正在努力提高整個業務的獲利水準。當我們著眼於成長機會時，我們將專注於建立我們的領導地位，使我們的價值主張對客戶更具吸引力。因此，我要感謝您的參與。接線員女士，我們現在準備好回答問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Tyler Hojo, Sidoti & Company.

泰勒‧霍霍 (Tyler Hojo)，西多蒂公司 (Sidoti & Company)。

First question, just on the Airlift business. I get you have great backlog visibility there still. And I also understand the funding comes from the OCO budget, so you've got some protection there. But in past quarters, you have talked to us about looking to diversify the Afghan exposure of that business. Can you perhaps talk a little bit about any progress on that front?

第一個問題，關於空運業務。我知道您仍然有很好的積壓可見性。我還了解到資金來自 OCO 預算，所以你在那裡得到了一些保護。但在過去的幾個季度中，您曾與我們談論過尋求使該業務在阿富汗的業務多元化。能否談談這方面的進展？

Yes, I would say that we are making progress. All of our assets right now are fully employed. So we are working on a strategy to have assets that can be utilized elsewhere. But yes, suffice to say that we have some interesting paths that we are exploring at this point.

是的，我想說我們正在取得進展。我們所有的資產現在都已充分利用。因此，我們正在製定一項策略，以擁有可在其他地方使用的資產。但是，是的，足以說明我們目前正在探索一些有趣的路徑。

Okay, David. Now, at what point do you need to actually see some of those contracts come in before risking pretty sharp decline in that business?

好吧，大衛。現在，在冒著業務大幅下滑的風險之前，你需要在什麼時候真正看到其中一些合約的簽訂？

Well, I think we are expecting the level of activity that we are currently experiencing to continue for a period of time. So the customer is indicating to us, at least, that they don't see a softening of demand through next year. So at this stage, we see the pace continuing. Just to give you a sense, the number of flights and the number of hours that we are logging this December versus last December, where there is approximately 30,000 less troops, are very similar to each other. Matter of fact, slightly higher this year than prior years. So even with reduction in force, it feels like that the demand is not tailing off. You know, I think you've heard me say this before, we handle approximately 1,000 passengers a day. So you still have 66,000 American troops, I believe, in Theatre, 68,000. So ideally, what we would like is, we would like to have similar revenue opportunity, or have similar revenue flows from other Theatres. But right now, for the foreseeable future, this market continues to be relatively strong.

嗯，我認為我們預計目前的活動水平將持續一段時間。因此，客戶至少向我們表明，他們認為明年的需求不會減弱。因此，在現階段，我們看到這一步伐仍在繼續。只是為了讓您感覺一下，我們今年 12 月記錄的航班數量和飛行小時數與去年 12 月（去年 12 月減少了約 30,000 名士兵）非常相似。事實上，今年比往年略高。因此，即使力量減少，需求似乎也沒有減少。您知道，我想您以前聽過我說過，我們每天接待大約 1,000 名乘客。所以我相信戰區仍有 66,000 名美軍，68,000 名。因此，理想情況下，我們希望擁有類似的收入機會，或從其他劇院獲得類似的收入流。但目前，在可預見的未來，這個市場仍然相對強勁。

Okay. And just one last follow-on to that. Can you remind us of when your big contracts there will be up for re-bid? Is it December?

好的。這只是最後一個後續。您能提醒我們一下您的大合約何時會重新投標嗎？現在是十二月嗎？

Well, I don't know about re-bid, but we have a bid that comes due -- we have a -- sorry, we have a option that comes due in May. It's a fixed-wing option. We have been verbally told, as we have in the past, that that will be exercised. And then we have a couple meaningful options that come due in October and November later in this calendar year.

嗯，我不知道重新投標，但我們有一個到期的投標 - 我們有一個 - 抱歉，我們有一個五月份到期的選項。這是一個固定翼選項。正如過去一樣，我們被口頭告知將予以行使。然後我們有幾個有意義的選擇將在今年 10 月和 11 月晚些時候到期。

Okay, great, thanks for that. And just one other question, if I may, just as it pertains to the guidance. Are there any planned aircraft sales in Q4? If so, could you quantify?

好的，太好了，謝謝你。如果可以的話，還有一個問題，因為它與指南有關。第四季有計劃銷售飛機嗎？如果是這樣，你能量化一下嗎？

We had the one aircraft sale that I talked about in my comments, the Colombian Air Force, which we will be delivering in Q4. And then we have a sister ship that we will be delivering in Q1, fiscal year '14.

我們在評論中談到了哥倫比亞空軍的一架飛機銷售，我們將在第四季度交付。然後我們有一艘姐妹船，我們將在 14 財年第一季交付。

But nothing out of any of the JVs?

但合資企業沒有任何成果嗎？

We have one situation that's being worked that -- too hard for me to handicap. So I wouldn't want to commit to any further aircraft activity.

我們正在解決一種情況——對我來說太難了，無法阻止。所以我不想參與任何進一步的飛機活動。

Understood. Thanks a lot.

明白了。多謝。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Larry Solow, CJS Securities.

拉里·索洛，CJS 證券。

You guys did a pretty good job explaining the gross margin issues this quarter. Just curious. On the aviation side, if we strip out the inventory reduction on the sales inventory, margins were still down sequentially. Was there anything else in there? Or is there just sort of -- you know, revenue was up sequentially, margin was down. Anything in there other than the inventory issue that you can call out?

你們很好地解釋了本季的毛利率問題。只是好奇。在航空方面，如果我們剔除銷售庫存的庫存減少，利潤率仍較上季下降。裡面還有別的東西嗎？或者只是某種——你知道，收入連續上升，利潤率下降。除了庫存問題之外，還有什麼可以指出的嗎？

Larry, it's Mike. What I included in my comments when I talked about Aviation Services was that we had the inventory item, and then we had lower margin sequentially at our airframe maintenance facilities, principally related to bringing in new work in Q3.

拉里，是麥克。當我談論航空服務時，我在評論中提到的是，我們有庫存項目，然後我們的機身維修設施的利潤率連續下降，主要與第三季度引入新工作有關。

Okay. So just mostly that was in Duluth, I imagine? And that moved the needle that much?

好的。我想，大部分都是在德盧斯？這讓針頭有那麼大的觸動嗎？

Duluth, and we also ramped up from new customers in Indianapolis, Larry.

德盧斯，我們也增加了印第安納波利斯拉里的新客戶。

Okay. So that was my next question. How are the other MRO facilities -- what's the outlook there?

好的。這是我的下一個問題。其他 MRO 設施怎麼樣？

Yes, they are busy. We have taken on some new lines of work for a particular customer that we are kind of in the learning curve on. But we expect to see that turnaround here in Q4.

是的，他們很忙。我們已經為某個特定客戶進行了一些新的工作，我們正處於學習曲線中。但我們預期第四季會出現這種轉變。

Okay. And on the defense side, I know that the -- it looks like the Airlift business has certainly improved execution. How about the precision engineering business that was also having some issues a few quarters back?

好的。在國防方面，我知道空運業務看起來確實提高了執行力。幾個季度前也遇到一些問題的精密工程業務怎麼樣？

It's better. We have been talking about sequential improvement. And we've seen that. Still not where we want it. But we have a leadership team in place there that's committed to getting the business so it is generating reasonable returns for us. So I would say that it's better. And it continues to get better, but still not where we want it.

好多了。我們一直在談論順序改進。我們已經看到了這一點。仍然不是我們想要的地方。但我們有一個領導團隊，致力於獲得業務，從而為我們帶來合理的回報。所以我會說這樣更好。它繼續變得更好，但仍然沒有達到我們想要的程度。

Okay. And just on some of the acquisitions. Any --Telair -- you know, you mentioned some of the programs you guys are in. Year-over-year, could you tell us how that did and what the outlook is for that business?

好的。就一些收購而言。任何 - Telair - 你知道，你提到了你們參與的一些專案。

So what I mentioned, Larry, in my comments in Technology Products was that the cargo systems business had a softer Q3.

拉里，我在《科技產品》的評論中提到的是，貨運系統業務的第三季表現較為疲軟。

Right.

正確的。

Principally around timing of spares and some systems shipments, which we expect to get back to more normal levels in Q4.

主要圍繞備件和一些系統發貨的時間安排，我們預計將在第四季度恢復到更正常的水平。

Okay. And by normal is that running -- is it sort of, you know, low single-digit grow? Was it year-over-year -- like, excluding the sort of lumpiness in timing of orders?

好的。正常情況下，這種運作有點低個位數成長？是否與去年同期相比——例如，排除訂單時間的混亂情況？

In terms of forecasts for that business for Q4?

關於第四季該業務的預測？

Or just how it's -- yes. Or a forecast for 4 as you look out at the next few quarters, or what it's sort of --

或者就是這樣——是的。或者當你展望未來幾季時對 4 的預測，或者它是什麼樣的——

No. We see a nice improvement in Q4. And Larry, we are also very pleased with -- as David mentioned, with our position here. We are on great long-term programs. And as the A350 comes online, we are going to be well-positioned there. So the future for this business is excellent. And it's performed very well since the acquisition. And the performance next quarter is going to be very solid as well.

不，我們看到第四季有了很大的進步。拉里，正如大衛所提到的，我們也對我們在這裡的地位感到非常滿意。我們正在進行偉大的長期計劃。隨著 A350 上線，我們將在這方面佔據有利位置。所以這個行業的未來是非常好的。自收購以來，它的表現非常好。下個季度的表現也將非常穩健。

And just, if I may, just one more quick. On the reduced earn-out on Airinmar, is that reflecting that it's not quite performing up to expectations? Or would that earn-out have been where it would have been exceeding expectations?

如果可以的話，再快一點。關於Airinmar 獲利減少，這是否反映出其業績未達到預期？或者該獲利是否會超出預期？

The business has been performing very well for us. But particularly in helping us with our internal spend on programs. So we have been pleased with the performance of the business. The earn-out is mathematical formula. And it was in both parties' interests to negotiate this conclusion.

我們的業務一直表現良好。但特別是在幫助我們處理專案的內部支出方面。因此，我們對業務的表現感到滿意。收益是數學公式。談判得出這個結論符合雙方的利益。

Okay. Just lastly, David talked about just macro trends and outsourcing, sort of the stars aligning. It seems like that number should continue to rise. It's been on a secular trend the last couple of decades. Just in terms of American Air and US Air consolidating -- and I know American Air has not normally been a big outsourcer -- any thoughts on that and how that may impact your performance?

好的。最後，大衛談到了宏觀趨勢和外包，有點像星星排列。看來這個數字應該會繼續上升。過去幾十年來，這是一種長期趨勢。就美國航空和全美航空合併而言——我知道美國航空通常不是大型外包商——對此有何想法以及這可能如何影響您的業績？

I think it's a little early, Larry. My view is that the US Air team will ingest some creative thinking into the American organization. So I would be hopeful and somewhat optimistic. But I wouldn't be, at this stage, factoring anything in. It's a little bit too early.

我認為現在有點早了，拉里。我的觀點是，美國航空團隊將向美國組織吸收一些創意思考。所以我會充滿希望並且有些樂觀。但在現階段我不會考慮任何因素。

Got it. Fair enough, great. Thanks, guys, I appreciate it.

知道了。足夠公平，太棒了。謝謝，夥計們，我很感激。

Michael Callahan, Topeka Capital Markets. And it seems he has removed himself. J.B. Groh, D.A. Davidson.

邁克爾·卡拉漢，托皮卡資本市場。而他似乎已經把自己移走了。 J.B.格羅，D.A.戴維森。

I popped in and out here. Did you address MRO and where you are in terms of capacity utilization there? I don't know if Duluth is contributing yet or not. But could you go over that?

我在這裡進進出出。您是否解決了 MRO 問題？我不知道德盧斯是否還在捐款。但你能再說一次嗎？

Yes, we touched on it, actually. And Duluth is contributing. The shops are all very busy. We are ramping up some new programs across our various facilities that had a little bit of a drag on margins this quarter. We expect better margins next quarter. Duluth has, I think, been a terrific story in terms of going from a moth balled plant to a plant that has two lines of work going today. But still, we are looking for people and we want to get the ramp to three and then four lines as quickly as possible. But no, the MRO business is doing well. There's good demand for our services, and our performance has been, on balance, very good.

是的，實際上我們已經談到過它。德盧斯正在做出貢獻。所有的商店都非常繁忙。我們正在各個設施中加強一些新計劃，這些計劃對本季的利潤率造成了一些拖累。我們預計下個季度利潤率會更高。我認為，德盧斯從一個封閉的工廠到如今擁有兩條生產線的工廠，是一個了不起的故事。但我們仍在尋找人員，我們希望盡快將坡道增至三條線，然後是四條線。但不，MRO 業務表現良好。人們對我們的服務有很大的需求，而且總的來說，我們的表現非常好。

Okay. Anything on the acquisition front that you are -- how's that pipeline looking? What's the appetite like currently, versus what it's been in the past?

好的。您在收購方面的任何事情 - 管道看起來怎麼樣？與過去相比，現在的胃口如何？

There's some interesting things, J.B. So we are kind of -- we have our finger in the -- out there in the mix, if you will. You know, I think what I'm saying is that any acquisitions we do will be to strengthen the leadership positions we have in the different markets we have been discussing. So anything that comes up that improves our supply chain deliverables, anything that improves our MRO capability, anything that improves our cargo systems, we will be looking at those opportunities very closely.

J.B. 有一些有趣的事情，如果你願意的話，我們會參與其中。你知道，我想我想說的是，我們所做的任何收購都將加強我們在我們一直在討論的不同市場中的領導地位。因此，任何能夠改善我們供應鏈可交付成果的事情、任何能夠提高我們的 MRO 能力的事情、任何能夠改善我們的貨運系統的事情，我們都將非常密切地關注這些機會。

And then lastly, could you talk about where do you think you guys have a sort of unique perspective on, I think, airline inventory levels? Could you talk about what you're seeing there in terms of burn-down or rebuild or steady-state?

最後，您能談談您對航空公司庫存水準有什麼獨特的看法嗎？您能談談您在燒毀、重建或穩態方面看到的情況嗎？

I think the airlines are watching their inventory levels very closely. And my sense is that you are probably going through a little bit of a burn down at present. And I would imagine that that should continue for a short period. But then they will probably get their inventory position ready for the strong summer season they are expecting.

我認為航空公司正在非常密切地關注他們的庫存水準。我的感覺是，你目前可能正在經歷一點倦怠。我想這種情況應該會持續很短一段時間。但隨後他們可能會為他們預期的強勁夏季做好庫存準備。

So when do you expect that to kind of bottom?

那你預計什麼時候會見到底呢？

Say again?

再說一次？

When do you expect that to bottom?

您預計什麼時候會見到底？

I think as we sit here today, it's probably bottomed.

我認為當我們今天坐在這裡時，它可能已經觸底。

Okay, perfect. Thanks for your time.

好的，完美。謝謝你的時間。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Michael Callahan, Topeka Capital Markets.

邁克爾·卡拉漢，托皮卡資本市場。

Sorry about that. A user error on my phone there.

對於那個很抱歉。我的手機上出現用戶錯誤。

(laughter) No problem.

（笑聲）沒問題。

So I apologize if this was asked while I was signing back in here. But on the mobility structures business, did you guys give any -- or do you guys have any insight with respect to -- assuming the current budget passes, or the Appropriations Bill passes the House and Senate and goes through. Does that lead you guys to believe there would be any improvement in that business? Or have orders been held back at all? Or is this just kind of the result of the drawdown in Iraq and Afghanistan?

因此，如果我在重新登入時被問到這個問題，我深表歉意。但是在流動性結構業務上，假設當前的預算通過，或者撥款法案在眾議院和參議院獲得通過並獲得通過，你們是否給出了任何建議——或者你們有任何見解嗎？這是否讓你們相信這項業務會有任何改善？還是訂單根本被延後了？還是這只是伊拉克和阿富汗撤軍的結果？

Yes, I think it's a combination. I think the business is giving us -- continues to give us a good return on capital. And the business continues to operate efficiently. I believe that the requirements are down as a result of both factors you indicated. And we are planning on those requirements staying down for a period of time. So as we look at Q4, for instance, we don't see any major changes. You might have slightly up, slightly down, but no significant directional changes. And as we enter the new fiscal year, I think we are looking at relatively flat to where we are today. So we have been in this situation before with this business. We are a little bit, I think, stronger this cycle than we have been other cycles. So I would anticipate there will be a tough slide for this business for a period of time.

是的，我認為這是一個組合。我認為這項業務正在繼續為我們帶來良好的資本回報。且業務持續高效運作。我認為，由於您指出的兩個因素，要求有所下降。我們計劃將這些要求保持一段時間。例如，當我們查看第四季度時，我們沒有看到任何重大變化。您可能會略有上升，略有下降，但沒有顯著的方向變化。當我們進入新的財政年度時，我認為我們的情況與今天的情況相對持平。所以我們之前在這項業務上也遇到過這種情況。我認為，我們這個週期比其他週期更強一些。因此，我預計這項業務將在一段時間內經歷艱難的下滑。

Okay, thanks. That was helpful. And then just one, maybe, last one here. Just as far as the aftermarket trends that you are seeing throughout the quarter. It seems like you guys have reported a little bit stronger of a quarter, maybe, than the guys who finished at -- on the normal calendar year for the same time period. So did you see strengthening as the quarter progressed? Or -- and how did things look towards the end? Or could you give any color there?

好的謝謝。這很有幫助。然後只有一個，也許是最後一個。正如您在整個季度看到的售後市場趨勢一樣。看來你們報告的季度業績可能比正常日曆年同期的那些人要強一些。那麼，隨著本季的進展，您是否看到了強勁的勢頭？或者——最後情況如何？或者你能給那裡任何顏色嗎？

No, I think it was fairly consistent throughout. I can't say that we saw any change. Keep in mind, our historical -- this quarter is a low quarter to begin with. Because you are dealing with the December, January and February periods. December is typically soft due to the holidays, and February is soft because it only has 28 days. So historically, this has been our softest quarter. Now that said, we had nice growth over prior-year. And I think a lot of that is due to some of the stuff that we have been talking about in terms of our positioning and our customer interaction and our performance. So I think as we look out into Q4, I think if you look at our commercial growth rates, versus many of our people also sell into the commercial markets over the last three or four years, I think you will see that we have given a pretty good accounting for ourselves. So I would anticipate that that will continue.

不，我認為整個過程相當一致。我不能說我們看到了任何變化。請記住，我們的歷史——本季一開始就是一個低迷的季度。因為您正在處理 12 月、1 月和 2 月期間。由於假期，12 月通常比較疲軟，而 2 月也因為只有 28 天而疲軟。從歷史上看，這是我們最疲軟的季度。話雖如此，我們比前一年有了良好的成長。我認為這很大程度上是由於我們一直在談論我們的定位、客戶互動和績效方面的一些內容。因此，我認為，當我們展望第四季度時，我想，如果你看看我們的商業成長率，對比過去三四年我們的許多人也在商業市場進行銷售，我想你會發現我們已經給出了對我們自己來說相當不錯。所以我預計這種情況將會持續下去。

Okay, thanks, guys.

好的，謝謝大家。

Thank you. And we have no further questions at this time.

謝謝。目前我們沒有進一步的問題。

Okay. Well, thank you very much for participating. I wish everybody a very pleasant day.

好的。嗯，非常感謝您的參與。祝大家有個愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone have a good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了程序，您現在可以斷開連接。每個人都有美好的一天。