Albany International Corp (AIN) 2008 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

  • Welcome to the fourth quarter earnings call of Albany International. (Operator Instructions) Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. At the request of Albany International, this conference call on Wednesday, February 18, 2009, will be Webcast and recorded.

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, President and Chief Executive officer, Dr. Joseph Morone. Please go ahead, sir.

  • - President and CEO

  • Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone. And welcome to the Albany International international Q4 2008 earnings call. As always, I'll open with a commentary. And then, our Executive VP and CFO, Michael Nahl will provide some amplifying comments and then we'll get into Q&A.

  • Before we start, let me just give you a quick overview of how we're looking at this at least, because we know this is a very complex quarter. It's going to take you quite a bit of time to work your way through the numbers. Please take as much time as you need on the call with questions and we'll take as much time as necessary to answer those questions. We're confident when you work through all of the numbers and work through the details of this very complex release, that you'll come to the same place that we're at. And where we're at is something like this.

  • Number one, we are confident that we are taking the steps necessary to deal with this recession and to leave us going into 2010 in a very strong position. Number two, our timing on our restructuring has not changed. We've been talking about a three year restructuring process that ends this year. We're still talking about a restructuring process that ends this year. We're still looking at clean numbers by the end of the year, good cash flow by the end of the year.

  • What has changed, because of the recession, is the scale of the restructuring that we'll go through this year. But that means that the magnitude of the cost savings and the magnitude of the cash generation potential of this Company, by the time we get through the restructuring and are into 2010, is all the greater. All of which means we expect to go into 2010 in a strong position, even if the recession continues into 2010. And if there's any kind of an upturn, I think you are going to see the kind of results that are really exciting. So that's the overall message. And the difficulties that I think you'll have in this quarter, is working through all of the numbers to get to that message. But that's -- I thought it was important to give you a sense of how we're feeling, having faced the brunt of the recession, as we look forward.

  • So, let me turn to my written comments. And then we will go to Michael. And then we will go to Q&A. In our Q3 2008 earnings release, I said that, "We are making good progress toward the development of our cash and growth portfolio of businesses. And despite the recession, we continue to expect that by this time in 2010, the cash and growth portfolio have been fully implemented." One quarter later, after experiencing the full brunt of the global recession in November and December, these expectations remain largely unchanged.

  • Assuming the sales environment that we experienced in November and December persists through 2009, we still expect to enter 2010 with restructuring behind us. Our portfolio of business is well on its way of being fully optimized. CapEx running at or below depreciation and with with increasingly strong cash flow.

  • Sales in Q4 were down 11% compared to 2007. We think this result somewhat understates the full effect of the full effect of the global recession since October was a relatively healthy sales month. November and December were much slower, as was January. If this pattern persists, sales for 2009 would be down by 13% to 15%, compared to 2008. And since Q1 and Q2 of '08 had very strong sales, the year-over-year declines in the first half of '09 are even greater.

  • Q4 earnings were affected by the goodwill impairment, the Eclipse Aviation bankruptcy and other items described in the first paragraphs of the release. Excluding those item, EBITDA for Q4 '08 improved compared to Q4 '07, as our continuing efforts at cost reduction helped to offset the 11% decline in sales. In addition, net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter increased 24%, compared to Q4 '07. Also reflecting progress of those Companywide initiatives.

  • While we believe that these results are a clear indication of the progress we're making, it's important to keep in mind that the Q4 results were helped by strong sales early in the quarter and favorable currency effects, and do not reflect the full impact of the recession. And so despite the strong results, we started in Q4 to accelerate our restructuring and cost reduction efforts. Table three in the release demonstrates how we are approaching the challenge of minimizing the full effect of the recession.

  • Our overarching objective is to emerge from this recession as a fundamentally more profitable Company. Our primary focus is on structural permanent reductions in costs. In essence, we are accelerating the remaining major steps in our global restructuring process. And simultaneously, initiating additional cost reduction measures, that under ordinary circumstances, we would have pursued more gradually over a period of several years. The impact on earnings from these actions will grow as the year progresses and should be fully realized by the end of the year.

  • The cost of this approach to the recession is clearly shown in table three. In Q4, restructuring charges, idle capacity costs and costs related to continuing performance improvement initiatives were higher than we had been anticipating before we felt the full brunt of he recession, and totaled $0.98 per share. High levels of restructuring related charges will continue through most of '09. We still expect a sharp decline in restructuring related costs as we enter into 2010 and permanently lower operating costs and improved margins. At the same time, we have sharply reduced our planned CapEx for 2009 and continue to plan for capital expenditures spending in 2010 and beyond, cash or slightly below depreciation.

  • Turning to performance and outlook of our each of our major businesses. Q4 sales and global PMC declined by 15% compared to 2007. In our Q3 release, I said that we expected the global slowdown in PMC to, "Continue for the length of the recession, as paper makers in every region reduce mill operating rates, slow down operating speeds, extend downtime periods and accelerate the pace of machine shutdowns." What we did not foresee, was the severity of this slowdown in Europe and Asia.

  • Sales in the Americas were down 9% compared to Q4 '07, in line with our expectations. But in Europe and Asia, sales in US dollars dropped 19% and 18% respectively. Even with this decline in sales, we continued to strengthen our market position with share gains in key product segments in the Americas, Europe and China. The successful conclusion of contract negotiations with the two largest paper makers in Europe. The successful trials of several new products now emerging from the R&D pipeline. And excellent progress in ramping up our new capacity in Asia.

  • If there is a silver lining in this sharp market decline, it is that with lower market demand, we're able to accelerate our global restructuring. And with key customers running their mills at lower than normal rates, they are more willing to run trials of our new products. Moreover, this sharp global slowdown in the paper industry is forcing a reduction in overall paper making capacity. While the process of consolidation is painful to our customers, as it is to our own employees who have lost their jobs in this recession, it should result in a healthier global paper industry and therefore, the MC industry, once the economy does begin to recover.

  • Turning next to Albany Engineered Composites, Q4 was marked by the bankruptcy of Eclipse Aviation. As we described in an 8-K filing, Eclipse filed for bankruptcy on November 25, forcing us to write off $10.6 million in receivables, inventory and tooling. The bankruptcy court has approved the sales of the assets of Eclipse to its former lead investor. And while the sale has not yet closed, the buyer has indicated to former Eclipse suppliers, including us, a desire to revive production. At the same time, the global recession is forcing many of our other major customers to sharply curtail production, which is putting yet more pressure on AEC's top line.

  • The net result is that revenue for 2009 is likely to be down as much as 15% compared to 2008. Nonetheless, we remain as bullish as ever, if not more bullish, about the future prospects of this business. Even in this recession. Promising new business development opportunities continue to emerge, some in new engine applications and some in new air frame applications, and some outside of aviation, the defense sector.

  • Albany Door Systems had another strong quarter, growing 3% despite the recession. And that was against a very strong Q4 '07. All the now familiar trends were apparent in Q4 '08. With performance led by Europe's 12% growth in product sales and 20% increase in after market sales, compared to Q4 '07. However the strong quarter four results are not indicative of the 2009 outlook. Orders for new doors began to drop off at the end of the year and into January. And we're preparing for a substantial decline in product sales, which will only be partially offset by continued growth in the after-market sales. And so, as we are doing with PMC, we've been taking steps across the business to accelerate structural changes that permanently reduce costs and improve margins.

  • In Q4, Engineered Fabrics was hit much harder by the global slowdown than we expected. With sales down 13%, compared to 2007. And operating income falling below breakeven. The single biggest factor was performance in non-wovens, the largest and most profitable product line. Since the non-wovens industry is still growing in North America and Europe, we had expected to be somewhat less vulnerable to the recession but it was hit every bit as hard as the paper industry. And, as with PMC, we view sales in the last two months of Q4 and the first month of '09 as our best indicator of what lies ahead for the year. And as with PMC and doors, we are responding to the anticipated sales decline in '09 with structural permanent reductions in costs.

  • So in sum, we are preparing for a long and deep recession by accelerating and expanding the permanent structural reductions in operating costs, that would ordinarily have been implemented in a more measured pace, over a longer period of time. Simultaneously, in each of our businesses, we continue to move forward with our major strategic initiatives, the introduction of new product, the development of strategic partnerships with key customers and the scale of the new capacity. Because of the accelerated and expanded cost reduction on the one hand and the continued progress with our strategic initiatives on the other, we remain confident that even if 2009 sales declined to 13% to 15%, we will exit the year as a fundamentally more profitable business, in a stronger competitive position in our most important markets and with the capacity for sustained and growing free cash flow in 2010, even if the recession extends beyond 2009.

  • That's it for my commentary. And so, let's turn now to Michael Nahl and then to your questions.

  • - EVP and CFO

  • Good morning. We refer you to the comment about forward-looking statements, which is contained in the press release and we note that the same statement applies to our remarks in this conference call.

  • In the fourth quarter, despite the strong head winds of a crashing global economy, sharply lower sales in a majority of our businesses, and the Eclipse bankruptcy, our fourth quarter net cash provided by operating activities increased to $52 million, in comparison to $42 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. And our leveraged ratio, as defined in our principal credit agreements, improved again to 2.54 at year-end 2008, from 2.82 at the end of the first quarter of 2008, 2.80 at the end of the second quarter, and 2.62 at the end of the third quarter of 2008. The cash from operations improvement in the fourth quarter reflects both continuing improvements in our cost structure and good progress by our team in reducing accounts receivable and inventories.

  • Excluding the effect of changes in currency translation rates and provisions for bad debt, accounts receivable declined at $10 million in the quarter and inventories declined $9.4 million. Net debt declined during the fourth quarter by $16.4 million. For the full year, net debt increased from $362.6 million to $389 million. Mainly as a result of the $129.5 million of capital expenditures in 2008, and the high costs associated with the second year of a three-year restructuring program. As of December 31, 2008, cash was $106.6 million. And the cash surrender value of life insurance policies was $47.4 million, for a total of $154 million. That compares with the total debt of $543 million.

  • Fourth quarter interest expense net was $5.3 million in 2008, compared to $4.3 million in 2007, due principally to the higher average borrowings in 2008. Even though our net debt and leverage ratio declined in the quarter, we felt that due to the uncertainty regarding the global economic outlook for 2009, it was prudent to work with Prudential Capital to increase the maximum permitted leverage ratio on the $150 million term loan with them, from 3.0 to 3.5 through 2010, which conforms with the maximum under our revolving credit agreement with our bank group. As a result, our interest rate on the Prudential debt increased to 6.84% from 5.34%, although there are lower interest rate incentives for significant reductions in leverage. Principal payments of $50 million will be due on that facility in Octobers of 2013, '15 and '17.

  • Looking ahead, capital expenditures in 2009 are now expected to be approximately $50 million in comparison to depreciation of $67 million and amortization of $8 million. If the recession is over by 2010, capital expenditures are likely to increase to a level at or below depreciation, and remain below that level for the next several years, since the Company's three-year restructuring program will have been completed. Cash costs of completing the restructuring program in 2009 are likely to be significant, possibly in a range of $50 to $60 million.

  • While the cash required for the restructuring will be somewhat larger than originally planned, the CapEx will be correspondingly less. And the cost savings from the restructuring, by the end of 2009, will be significantly larger than planned. And we should go into 2010 generating substantial cash, even if the global economy remains in a recession. Operator, that completes our comments for this morning. We can take any questions now.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And first go to the line of Arnie Ursaner with CJS Securities. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Morning, it's Jason Ursaner for Arnie.

  • - President and CEO

  • Good morning.

  • - Analyst

  • Industry data from Europe indicated as much as $1 billion in PMC inventory could be at customers. Do you have any sense of your levels of inventory at customers?

  • - President and CEO

  • In Europe, we're on a make and ship basis, so there isn't an accumulation of inventory in the customers. In Asia, if you're looking for examples of markets where there are likely to be build-ups in inventory of our products or our industry's products with our customers, I think the places where there may be an issue is in Asia. Because as of October, they were still in a rapid growth mode and so still expanding capacity and raw materials and finished goods inventory, ahead of demand. By November, that market was crashing. And so, they're likely to be stuck with more inventory than -- which will slow down a recovery there, there from our industry's point of view. But no, Europe is make and ship.

  • - Analyst

  • And I know if PMC is used for all types of paper, which is being impacted cyclically. However, certain types, such as newsprint, maybe magazines, are probably seeing secular declines. Can you see that in your exposure to various paper markets?

  • - President and CEO

  • It's interesting that we are, fortunately, least exposed in the most vulnerable segment, which is newsprints, primarily centered in Canada. We are especially strong in tissue and craft and there's actually by the -- as an aside, an awful lot of new product development activity on the tissue side, where we have very strong share and are working with the best customers in the world, really, on some innovations there. I think the bigger, the long-term sectoral decline in newsprint is not the story for us. The story for us in '09 and in Q4 is really the more general global recession. And if you think about our strength in craft, which is where the boxes come from for shipping, that's the bigger issue. That's the bigger impact of the recession on us. But no, unlike a couple of our largest competitors, we're not nearly as exposed on the newsprint side as some other people are.

  • - Analyst

  • All right. In Albany Engineered Composites, X the one-time Eclipse charge, the segment still had around a $4 million operating loss. It there -- what can make this improve on a quarterly basis, given a 15% overall decline in segment revenue that you spoke to and the development --?

  • - President and CEO

  • What's going on in composites is there's some changes above the surface that are visible to investors and changes below the surface that aren't. Above the service, we have a number of legacy customers, mostly coming out of the old Texas composites business that -- where we are supplying parts for business jets, for the smaller end of the aircraft spectrum or engines for their -- parts for engines and parts for the fuselage of smaller aircraft. And that segment is the one that has been hid hardest by the recession. And so, when you see these top line declines in AEC, that's really driving it, is order ramp downs or production ramp downs by the makers of business jets.

  • Underneath the surface, what you don't see, and which we can't really talk about for confidentiality reasons, although we'd love to, is increasing possibilities and probabilities of new development contracts for future projects. On new parts of the engine, on new engines, on new parts of the fuselage, and in some really exciting defense applications that we can't talk about. Now, we made an accounting change -- a change in our accounting treatment of these program investment expenditures that brought us more in line with standard aerospace industry practice. Which is we're now, as of Q4, we are capitalizing the program development, program investment expenditures. So you won't -- while they have a cash effect, which would mostly cover in CapEx, you won't see an income effect of that growing activity and program investment. Which was what really drives the future annuities and cash flows in this business.

  • So to sum it all up, the top line is being affected by declines in some of the legacy programs. Our underlying enthusiasm for the business is growing because of the growing array of possibilities on the program investment side. We're able to scale back our costs on the production side. We have to do that, which is minimizing the impact on the bottom line of these production ramp downs. But because we're capitalizing the program investment, we're able to ramp that up without it hitting the bottom line. Which means that if things work the right way on an EBITDA basis, this business should be close to break-even in 2009.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Great.

  • - President and CEO

  • A long-winded answer but it's not a complex -- everything about this quarter is complex, so I'm afraid a lot of our answers, Michael and my answers, are going to be a bit long winded.

  • - Analyst

  • That is what I was looking for. And I think you had close to $2.8 million expense, related to SAP implementation in the quarter.

  • - President and CEO

  • Jason we just lost you a bit. Could you repeat that?

  • - Analyst

  • I think you had around $2.8 million expense related to SAP implementation in the quarter. Is there any way you could update us on expected SAP implementation costs --?

  • - President and CEO

  • We should see a decline in those expenditures. They will continue into 2010 but they will be substantially lower than they were in 2008. Substantially lower.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Paul Mammola with Sidoti & Company. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Good morning, guys.

  • - President and CEO

  • Good morning, Paul.

  • - Analyst

  • Not sure if you can comment but can can you give us a general sense of how much of the core PMC top line decline was price versus volume, so excluding currency?

  • - President and CEO

  • Mostly volume. And in fact, that's really the story right now is, the recessionary effect is; the volume effect, swamps the price effect. There was some price effect, mostly in North America because of the washing in of the effect of, what for us were, some successful contract negotiations. We'll see a gradual decline in price in Europe, in 2009, as we always do after major contract negotiations. But as I alluded to in my commentary, we're very happy with how the contract negotiations in Europe have turned out. Very different from two years ago. And we should see -- if we weren't in recession, we'd see volume increases and cost reductions offsetting the price declines.

  • - Analyst

  • Right, okay. So, is there a general sense of what industry pricing is in terms of maybe competing customers improving price, at this point? Have you seen any of that?

  • - President and CEO

  • Could you ask that one again, Paul? I didn't quite --.

  • - Analyst

  • Sure. In terms of general industry pricing, there was a thought that competitors may be raising price to improve their own financial condition. Have you seen any of that or is it more of just of stable low pricing at this point?

  • - President and CEO

  • I would characterize it, at this point, as stability -- in a recession this deep, people will start getting desperate, they always do in every industry and some will start trying to price in the margins. But remember, the big periods of instability occur when the window for contract negotiations open. And the contract negotiation windows are shut right now. So at the margin, there will be some price instability but we're in a pretty predictable environment on the price side for the next couple of years because of the contract side. That's not to say they won't glide downward but that uncertainty about price just isn't there right now.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. That's very helpful. And then --?

  • - President and CEO

  • There's another big swinger here, Paul.

  • - Analyst

  • Sure.

  • - President and CEO

  • And I think it's worth mentioning, even though there's a lot of uncertainty around it. There's two ways that this recession can go. One is, we start to see a gradual recovery late in the year, beginning next year. And the other is, this thing is longer than anybody is willing to admit now. I'm not just talking about the paper industry. I'm talking about the global recession. Because basically particularly on the -- in the growth markets, the economy drives the paper industry. When you get exports going in China, you get a healthy paper industry.

  • So if this thing goes longer than a year, we're going to start seeing some major second order effects. And the second order effects are consolidation, up and down the supply chain. And we'll see it among our customers, we'll see it in our industry, we'll see it in our supply base. And this is going to become a very Darwinian process in which only the strong survive. That's the consequence of the kind of recession this is starting to look at. We're very confident that we're going to go into -- we're going to get through '09 fine and we're going into 2010 in a strong position. If this thing is longer than people think, there will be consolidation. There has to be. And we'll be on the good side -- we'll be on the favorable side of that consolidation.

  • - Analyst

  • Sure. Hopefully --.

  • - President and CEO

  • That has the biggest effect possible on pricing, I would think.

  • - Analyst

  • Definitely. And then, is there a sense that there could be a meaningful impact from polymer price improvement, given what raw materials have done recently, in the first half of '09, I should say?

  • - President and CEO

  • Yes.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. And then finally, on the utilization at Guangzhou, is that going to be a comparable charge, would you say, through the first three quarters of around $1 million?

  • - President and CEO

  • We expect that plant to be fully running by the end of the second quarter. But -- and so the, it's ramping up, so we'd expect the charges to decline through the first two quarters.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. Thanks for your time.

  • - President and CEO

  • One more. We're still -- we are expecting clean numbers by the end of the year because the restructuring will be behind us. And that includes the ramp-up of these Asian plants.

  • - Analyst

  • Looking forward to those clean numbers. Thanks again.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We will go to the line of Ned Borland with Next Generation. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Good morning, guys. And I joined late, so I apologize if you covered this already. But Joe, I think in the past, we've talked about the competitive environment and that there's been some contract negotiations that have sort of stabilized things. But as the world fell off a cliff in the fourth quarter, has there been any meaningful changes in the competitive environment in PMC?

  • - President and CEO

  • Ned, were you on for the last -- for Paul's question?

  • - Analyst

  • I just got on.

  • - President and CEO

  • Okay. I'll try to give you a thumbnail recap. In the short term, in Q4, the primary change in the competitive environment was that we concluded, very successfully, contract negotiations with the two largest paper makers in Europe. And they're -- both were a big deal and have significant impact on the landscape in Europe going forward. The pricing was relatively stable, to the big effect, in Q4. And we think the big effect in '09 is a volume effect. And since there won't be, unlikely to be any major contract negotiations in '09, that window for instability we always talk about will be pretty much shut. There will be gradual glide-down in pricing in Europe because of contract negotiations. But if we weren't worried about the recession, we'd certainly see those declines offset by volume increases and cost reductions.

  • As mills shut down, there will be a differential effect on the different competitors. And so, some competitors will try, I think, to grab some business by pricing at the margin. But again, with the window for contract negotiations closed, there's only so much of that that can occur, so we don't expect the kind of price instability we've seen before. But going forward, the big story is volume.

  • The point I tried to make with Paul was, if this recession -- if the global economy starts bouncing back in the second half, and the first approximation, the paper industry does follow the global economy. If you just think about the all-important craft sector, that's driven heavily by export activity in Asia. By shipping activity, so economic activity, so those are all boxes. So, if the economy starts to recover in the second half of the year, then I think everybody comes out of this, and our customers, PMC, our suppliers, without any major structural change, and we're still in the same competitive dynamic we were before.

  • If, on the other hand, which is probably more -- which we think is more likely, this global economic recession extends past 2009, into 2010, then the likelihood of consolidation gets higher and higher. Up and down the supply chain among our customers, in our industry, in our supply chain, among our suppliers. And this is going to become a very Darwinian process. The strongest players, the largest players, the players with the best balance sheets are the ones that are going to do best. And every way we look at this, we're going to be on the right side of that Darwinian process and that's the silver lining in this recession.

  • If it lasts long enough and we do what we need to do, which we tried to lay out in this release, and I think odds of consolidation start to increase.

  • - Analyst

  • All right. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • And our next question is from the line of Will Nasgovitz with Heartland Fund. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Mike, you covered the debt to EBITDA ratio and I appreciate that. What is the threshold level that you have? Did you state that?

  • - EVP and CFO

  • Yes, the threshold level is 3.50.

  • - Analyst

  • And has that ramped down at all or that stays consistent?

  • - EVP and CFO

  • It stays up until the end of 2010.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. And Joe, you mentioned in your prepared remarks and also in the press release, that pro forma EBITDA was better than last year. What is the actual number? Did you state that?

  • - President and CEO

  • Well, we -- it's non-GAAP, so you got to do the math. If you go to the --.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay, all right.

  • - President and CEO

  • I'll tell you this. What we say in the press release, gross margins are up. If you look at EBIT -- if you look at SPG&R expenses, both in absolute terms and as percent of sales, they're down. Again, you got to do the math.

  • - Analyst

  • Yes, I understand. Okay. Final question. You have, obviously, still some optimism for the composites business. In the past conference calls, you've articulated a potential revenue goal in future years out. I'm just curious what percent of that revenue goal included Eclipse? Let's just assume they don't come back. What percentage were they of that goal?

  • - President and CEO

  • They were -- they accounted for a jump-up in sales in the short term. They accounted for less than -- about 5% of the long term potential.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks for your time.

  • - President and CEO

  • There weren't big in the long term. But in the short term, they were in a big -- and could still be, they were a big customer. And so, this business has two halves to it. There are the legacy programs that where giving us the short-term revenue. And then, there are these longer term program investment development programs, which really create all of the future annuity streams.

  • - Analyst

  • I actually have one more quick question for you. I know you guys -- you haven't been active buying back stock. I think you still have an authorization still in place. And I recognize that 2009, being the economic landscape might not be the year to be obviously buying the stock, given that cash is king here. But as the year progresses, and hopefully things pick up in the economy and the cash and grow strategy takes hold, is that a priority for the Company in terms of buying back shares at this level?

  • - President and CEO

  • I'd have to say short term is paying down debt. What we have told investors before, and we still still feel strongly about this, is by the time we're in the third quarter 2010, we're pretty much optimized. Our portfolio of businesses is optimized. And then, it's really all about; How do you maximize shareholder value? And there are all kinds of possibilities with that point and we're not ruling anything out.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks for your time.

  • - President and CEO

  • Thanks, Will.

  • Operator

  • We do have a follow-up from the line of Arnie Ursaner. Please go ahead.

  • - Analyst

  • Hi, it's Jason, again. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned PMC customers willingness to test new products and several trials from the R&D pipeline. Can you expand on those trials at all and maybe the effect it could have on segment margins?

  • - President and CEO

  • Yes, I -- it's always tough to answer these questions because we don't want to -- our friendly competitors are on our calls. And so we've got to be careful what we say. But in each of our product lines, forming, press, drying, shoe pressed belts, TransBelts, we have one or two or three new products coming out of the pipeline as we speak. And they will have -- I can't tell you that they -- it's going to be -- the effect on the numbers will vary. In some cases, it counteracts what otherwise would be price erosion. In some cases, it leads to increased share. And in other cases, it leads to an actual improvement in price. And you just have to go case by case and it really depends on the structural dynamics of the market.

  • I'll just give you some quick examples. There's a machine in northern Europe, Scandinavia, that just broke the world record for run rate, for speed and it's a fine paper machine. We were running our products on there and one of our key now products was running on that machine when it broke the world speed record. There's a new start-up, which are rare these days, in Southern Europe, another world class reference machine and we're going to have a very strong share on that machine. And it's because of the technology, it's not because of price. And again, a couple of our important new products, at least one of our major new products, will be running on that start-up.

  • I alluded to earlier in my comments, on one of the questions, there's an awful lot of innovative activity going on across the board for us in tissue and tissue-related industries. And some really interesting innovative work going on, tightly connected with our customers. And the customers are household names in the tissue business. So, I think this is one of the reasons we're pretty optimistic, even in the face of what's likely to be, based on November, December, January, a 13% to 15% down top line; is there's a lot of movement on the new product front.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • With no further questions in queue, I'll turn it back to the presenters for any closing comments.

  • - President and CEO

  • Thank you all for participating on the call and hanging in there with us, as you work through what is a complex quarter. And Michael and I will look forward to meeting you with at conferences. And thanks for joining us. See you next time.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, a replay of this conference call will be available at the Albany International Website, beginning at approximately Noon Eastern Time today. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T executive teleconference service. You may now disconnect.