Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd (AHL) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited 2018 年第二季收益電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,此事件正在被記錄。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Mark Jones, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給投資者關係部門的馬克瓊斯 (Mark Jones)。請繼續。

  • Mark P. Jones - SVP, IR

    Mark P. Jones - SVP, IR

  • Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. On today's call, we have Chris O'Kane, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Kirk, Chief Financial Officer. Last night, we issued our press release announcing Aspen's financial results for the second quarter of 2018. This press release as well as corresponding supplementary financial information can be found on our website at www.aspen.co.

    謝謝,安德魯,大家早安。今天的電話會議由首席執行官 Chris O'Kane 主持;以及首席財務官斯科特·柯克(Scott Kirk)。昨晚,我們發布了新聞稿,公佈了 Aspen 2018 年第二季的財務表現。本新聞稿以及相應的補充財務資訊可在我們的網站 www.aspen.co 上找到。

  • Today's presentation contains, and Aspen may make from time to time, written or oral forward-looking statements within the meaning under and pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. federal securities laws. All forward-looking statements have a number of assumptions concerning future events that are subject to a number of uncertainties and other factors. For more detailed descriptions of these uncertainties and other factors, please see the Risk Factors section in Aspen's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC and posted on our website. Today's presentation also contains non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are meaningful in evaluating Aspen's performance. For a detailed disclosure on non-GAAP financials, please refer to the supplementary financial data and our earnings release posted on our website.

    現今的簡報包含美國聯邦證券法安全港條款所定義義的書面或口頭前瞻性陳述,並且 Aspen 可能不時做出此類陳述。所有前瞻性陳述都包含一些有關未來事件的假設,這些假設受許多不確定因素和其他因素的影響。有關這些不確定性和其他因素的更詳細描述,請參閱 Aspen 向美國證券交易委員會提交並在我們網站上發布的 10-K 表格年度報告中的「風險因素」部分。今天的演示還包含非公認會計準則財務指標,我們認為這些指標對於評估 Aspen 的表現很有意義。有關非公認會計準則財務狀況的詳細揭露,請參閱我們網站上發布的補充財務數據和收益報告。

  • With that, I'll now turn the call over to Chris O'Kane.

    說完這些,我現在將電話轉給克里斯·奧凱恩 (Chris O'Kane)。

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. There is a tremendous amount of work being undertaken at Aspen to enhance both our financial and our operational performance. This was reflected in our operating earnings of $0.80 per diluted ordinary share and our annualized operating ROE of 8.4% in the second quarter. We have a very good business with significant upside potential and we are actively and aggressively executing our plan to deliver improved results. I want to spend a few minutes on that before Scott discusses those results.

    謝謝你,馬克。大家早安。阿斯彭正在進行大量工作來提高我們的財務和營運績效。這反映在我們第二季每股攤薄普通股 0.80 美元的營業收益和 8.4% 的年化營業 ROE 上。我們的業務非常好,具有巨大的上升潛力,我們正在積極主動地執行我們的計劃,以取得更好的業績。在史考特討論這些結果之前,我想花幾分鐘時間討論這個問題。

  • We have continued the successful repositioning of Aspen Insurance. We had a second successful record quarter in terms of top line, delivering more than $0.5 billion of premium. With continued support from our distribution partners and clients, the insurance team continued to find good opportunities as reflected in the 8% increase in gross written premium recorded in the quarter.

    我們繼續成功地重新定位 Aspen Insurance。我們在營業收入方面取得了第二個創紀錄的成功季度,保費收入超過 5 億美元。在我們的分銷合作夥伴和客戶的持續支持下,保險團隊繼續尋找良好的機會,這反映在本季度錄得的毛承保保費增長了 8%。

  • The lines we have targeted for growth are performing very well. They grew by 15% in the second quarter, primarily reflecting good underlying performance from Accident and Health, from Excess Casualty and Crisis Management, environmental as well as professional and related lines. Overall, the targeted growth lines, which account for almost half of our total insurance premiums, generated an accident year ex cat loss ratio of 55%, in line with the five-year trailing average for these same lines.

    我們設定的成長目標產品線表現非常良好。它們在第二季度增長了 15%,主要反映了意外和健康保險、超額傷亡和危機管理保險、環境風險以及專業和相關險種的良好基本表現。整體而言,目標成長險種(占我們總保費的近一半)的事故年度損失率為 55%,與這些險種的五年平均值一致。

  • There are some other lines, chiefly pieces of our U.S. property and onshore energy books, where we are now seeing the impact of remedial actions that have been taken. The downstream energy book, held also by improved market conditions, reported an accident year ex cat loss ratio in the low 20s this quarter.

    還有一些其他業務線,主要是我們的美國房地產和陸上能源帳簿,我們現在正在看到已採取的補救措施的影響。下游能源帳簿也因市場條件改善而有所增長,報告本季事故年度除巨災損失率處於 20% 出頭。

  • In U.S. property, we continued to nonrenew parts of the book we don't want and to reunderwrite business that we do want to keep. With the changes we have made, the U.S property is on the way to becoming a very attractive line of business again.

    在美國房地產領域,我們繼續不再續簽我們不想要的部分業務,並重新承保我們想要保留的業務。隨著我們做出的改變,美國房地產正在重新成為一個非常有吸引力的業務領域。

  • We also made substantial reductions to our PMLs in this area. The business that we have renewed so far this year has an average rate increase of 10%. The current book is subject to a 61% quota share. And so as the book improves further, we anticipate returning more of it starting in 2019.

    我們也大幅削減了該領域的 PML。今年迄今我們續簽的業務平均漲幅為10%。目前圖書的配額份額為 61%。隨著本書的進一步完善,我們預計從 2019 年開始將回歸更多內容。

  • Another important and successful part of our operation is the business we write on the Lloyd's platform. Approximately $480 million or just over 1/4 of our insurance segment premium is written at Lloyd's. This part of our business has five-year average loss ratio of 62%, the same as in the second quarter. This is good but we need it to be better.

    我們經營的另一個重要且成功的部分是我們在勞合社平台上開展的業務。我們保險部門的保費中約有 4.8 億美元(或略高於 1/4)是在勞合社承保的。我們這部分業務的五年平均損失率為62%,與第二季相同。這很好,但我們需要做得更好。

  • So how are we going to do this? While most of the Lloyd's business performed very well and we will continue to focus on growing these lines, there are some other areas that disappointed specifically international, professional indemnity and Marine Hull. Therefore, we will no longer underwrite these books on the Lloyd's platform. Of course, there are many other lines that are extremely valuable, for example, cyber, transactional liability, financial institutions, Management Liability and many of the broader marine lines that will be unaffected by this decision. In fact, we will be allocating more capital to these areas.

    那我們該怎麼做呢?雖然勞合社的大部分業務表現良好,而且我們將繼續致力於發展這些業務,但其他一些領域表現令人失望,特別是國際、專業賠償和船舶保險。因此,我們將不再在勞合社平台上承保這些書籍。當然,還有許多其他極為有價值的險種,例如網路險、交易責任險、金融機構險、管理責任險和許多更廣泛的海運險種不會受到這項決定的影響。事實上,我們將向這些領域分配更多資金。

  • As I said already, in professional and related lines in the U.S. and internationally, we see a great future is building on a very attractive foundation. As an example, in our U.S. professional liability book under Bruce Eisler, we have a terrific record with a 5-year annual growth rate of approximately 14% and a combined ratio in the low 80s. Under Bruce's leadership over entire global financial professional lines, we continue to see an excellent pipeline of opportunities.

    正如我已經說過的,在美國和國際的專業和相關領域,我們看到美好的未來正在非常有吸引力的基礎上建立。例如,在布魯斯艾斯勒 (Bruce Eisler) 領導下的美國專業責任險帳簿中,我們擁有出色的記錄,5 年年增長率約為 14%,綜合比率在 80% 左右。在布魯斯對整個全球金融專業線的領導下,我們繼續看到了大量絕佳的機會。

  • Furthermore, we will continue to grow our Marine lines in the U.S. and the international markets under the very able direction of Don Harrell. On the other hand, we will discontinue writing aviation insurance at Lloyd's.

    此外,在唐·哈雷爾 (Don Harrell) 的卓越領導下,我們將繼續在美國和國際市場上擴大我們的船舶生產線。另一方面,我們將停止在勞合社承保航空保險。

  • Turning to Aspen Re where we continued a strong record of success. The businesses built achieving combined ratio of 89.2% in the quarter and 89.6% in the first half of the year. We remain very disciplined in a pricing environment where rates were positive but narrowing in the first half of the year and flat on average at the July renewals. The reinsurance team are concentrating on better priced business and improving the average effective rate on the continuing book. An example of this discipline exists within the Specialty reinsurance part where we have reduced exposures to areas such as engineering and trade credit, where the underlying primary business is not unattractive but ceding commissions are just too high. We continue to see favorable prior year development across both insurance and reinsurance primarily in our short-term lines. In particular, we saw releases from 3 hurricane events in 2017, underscoring our prudent reserving approach.

    談到 Aspen Re,我們繼續保持著強勁的成功記錄。該業務本季的綜合比率為 89.2%,上半年的綜合比率為 89.6%。我們在定價環境中保持高度自律,利率為正,但在上半年有所收窄,7 月續約時平均持平。再保險團隊正致力於提供更優惠價格的業務並提高持續經營業務的平均有效利率。這種紀律的一個例子存在於專業再保險部分,我們減少了對工程和貿易信貸等領域的風險敞口,因為這些領域的底層主要業務並不缺乏吸引力,但分保佣金太高了。我們繼續看到保險和再保險業務去年取得良好發展,主要是在短期保險業務方面。特別是,我們在 2017 年經歷了 3 次颶風事件,這凸顯了我們審慎的儲備方式。

  • Turning out to our balance sheet. We continue to strengthen our capital foundation. We took action to reduce both our debt leverage and our PML exposure. In mid-June, we've redeemed $125 million of our senior notes which provides an element of capital flexibility in any future adverse catastrophe season. Importantly, it also reduces our debt leverage ratios from a rating agency perspective. As you will have seen, S&P recently reaffirmed our single-A financial strength rating.

    看看我們的資產負債表。我們持續加強資本基礎。我們採取行動降低債務槓桿和 PML 風險敞口。6月中旬,我們贖回了1.25億美元的優先票據,這為未來任何不利的災難季節提供了一定的資本彈性。重要的是,從評級機構的角度來看,它也降低了我們的債務槓桿。如您所見,標準普爾最近重申了我們的 A 級財務實力評級。

  • Our actions to strengthen the business have reduced susceptibility to cat losses. As you will recall, the second half of 2017, we sustained losses net of reinsurance of approximately $400 million from 3 hurricane events, 2 wildfires and the Mexican earthquake. Given the repositioning of our portfolio and our changed reinsurance buying, we believe that if the same exact events were to occur again this year, both our gross and net losses would be lower. We estimate net losses would be approximately $270 million, which is a reduction of 33%. Naturally, we would expect similar levels of reduction to most events that can be anticipated as our gross and net exposures are now much lower.

    我們為加強業務而採取的行動已經降低了遭受巨災損失的可能性。您可能還記得,2017 年下半年,我們因 3 次颶風、2 次野火和墨西哥地震遭受了約 4 億美元的再保險淨損失。鑑於我們投資組合的重新定位和再保險購買的變化,我們相信,如果今年再次發生同樣的事件,我們的總損失和淨損失都會更低。我們估計淨虧損約 2.7 億美元,減少 33%。當然,我們預計大多數事件的減少程度都會與預期的類似,因為我們的總風險敞口和淨風險敞口現在要低得多。

  • Another indicator of how we have lowered our cat exposure is the reduction relative to total shareholder equity from a 1 in 100 and a 1 in 250-year cat event. In July 2017, our largest wind exposure was Florida in the Southeast which stood at 9.6% for 1 in 200 -- 1 in 100 and 14.5% for 1 in 250. Today, the comparable figures are 7.1% and 9.7%.

    另一個顯示我們已降低巨災風險的指標是,百年一遇和二百五十年一遇的巨災事件相對於股東權益總額的減少。2017 年 7 月,我們在風能方面最大的投資是東南部的佛羅裡達州,其風能利用率達到 9.6%(1/200 — 1/100)以及 14.5%(1/250)。如今,可比數字分別為7.1%和9.7%。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Scott who will take you through our financial results in more detail.

    現在我將電話轉給史考特,他將向您更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

  • Scott Kirk - Group CFO

    Scott Kirk - Group CFO

  • Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everybody. In the second quarter of 2018, we continued to make good progress against the financial goals we set ourselves in 2018. We reported a second consecutive quarter of underwriting profit in both segments, continued to improve our expense ratios and reduced our debt leverage. We've produced annualized operating ROE of 8.4% and a combined ratio of 95.7%. Book value per diluted share was $38.21, with the entire decline attributable to $44 million of unrealized losses from the investment portfolio.

    謝謝你,克里斯,大家早安。2018年第二季度,我們繼續在實現2018年設定的財務目標方面取得良好進展。我們報告稱,兩個部門連續第二個季度實現承保利潤,繼續改善費用率並降低債務槓桿。我們的年化營業淨資產報酬率為 8.4%,綜合比率為 95.7%。每股攤薄帳面價值為 38.21 美元,全部下降歸因於投資組合 4,400 萬美元的未實現損失。

  • Through the first 6 months of 2018, our combined ratio was 95.6% and we achieved an annualized operating ROE of 8.8%. Gross written premiums for the group were $854 million, an increase of 4% compared with the second quarter of 2017, with growth coming from the insurance segment.

    2018 年上半年,我們的綜合成本率為 95.6%,年化營業淨資產報酬率為 8.8%。該集團的總承保保費為 8.54 億美元,與 2017 年第二季相比成長 4%,成長來自保險部門。

  • Net written premiums were $486 million, a decrease of 16% compared to the second quarter of 2017. For Aspen Insurance, this is primarily reflected in our increased use of quota share reinsurance.

    淨承保保費為 4.86 億美元,較 2017 年第二季下降 16%。對 Aspen Insurance 而言,這主要體現在我們增加使用配額再保險。

  • At Aspen Re, we no longer cede business by Silverton and now account for this business in the same way as any other third-party reinsurance. This change reduced net written premiums by close to $15 million in the second quarter of 2018. And are expected to have a similar impact in the third and fourth quarters of this year. The loss ratio for the group was 59.7%, down from 61.6%, with the improvement coming from insurance. Net cat losses were $18 million in the quarter or 4 percentage points, principally from weather-related events in the U.S. and the U.K.

    在 Aspen Re,我們不再轉讓 Silverton 的業務,現在以與任何其他第三方再保險相同的方式核算這項業務。這項變更導致 2018 年第二季淨承保保費減少近 1,500 萬美元。預計今年第三季和第四季也會產生類似的影響。該集團的損失率為 59.7%,低於 61.6%,損失的改善主要來自保險。本季淨巨災損失為 1,800 萬美元,佔 4 個百分點,主要由於美國和英國的天氣相關事件所致。

  • Total group prior year net reserve releases were $43 million or 8 percentage points, primarily from short-tail lines. We recorded $32 million of favorable loss reserve development in the quarter at Aspen Re. $20 million of which comes from reductions in our [team's] estimates while Aspen Insurance accounted for the remaining $11 million.

    集團上一年度淨儲備金總額為 4,300 萬美元,即 8 個百分點,主要來自短尾線。本季度,Aspen Re 的損失準備金有利增長為 3,200 萬美元。其中 2000 萬美元來自我們(團隊)估算的減少,而 Aspen Insurance 則承擔了剩餘的 1,100 萬美元。

  • Our accident year ex cat loss ratio was 64.4% compared with 63.6% in the second quarter of 2017. As I mentioned earlier, we changed our treatment of business previously ceded by Silverton. And as a result of this change, ceded earned premiums decreased $15 million in the second quarter. And due to a benign cat quarter, there were minimal associated recoveries. Now adjusting for this change, our accident year ex cat loss ratio was in fact 62.3%.

    我們的事故年度扣除巨災損失率為 64.4%,而 2017 年第二季為 63.6%。正如我之前提到的,我們改變了對 Silverton 先前轉讓的業務的處理方式。由於這項變化,第二季的已賺保費減少了 1,500 萬美元。並且由於貓的四分之一是良性的,因此相關的恢復很少。現在根據這項變更進行調整,我們的事故年度扣除巨災損失率實際上是 62.3%。

  • Turning now to our expenses, which continued to move in the right direction. Our total expense ratio declined 210 basis points to 36% compared to the second quarter of 2017 and was down 240 basis points in the first half of 2018. We recorded decreases in both the acquisitions and the G&A expenses. Acquisition expenses benefited from higher levels of ceding commissions and our G&A expenses reflected our continued focus on running the business as efficiently as possible. We are well on track to achieve our targeted savings of $30 million this year from our Operational Effectiveness and Efficiency Program.

    現在談談我們的開支,它繼續朝著正確的方向發展。我們的總費用率與 2017 年第二季相比下降了 210 個基點,至 36%,2018 年上半年下降了 240 個基點。我們記錄了收購和一般及行政費用的下降。收購費用受惠於更高水準的轉讓佣金,而我們的一般及行政費用反映了我們繼續專注於盡可能有效率地經營業務。我們預計透過營運效能和效率計劃實現今年節省 3000 萬美元的目標。

  • Turning now to our segments, and I'll firstly deal with reinsurance. Gross written premiums were $326 million, a decrease of 3% compared with the second quarter of 2017. This was largely due to lower premium coming from our specialty subsegment where we've written less business in areas such as engineering. The remainder of the 3 subsegments saw some modest growth in the quarter.

    現在轉到我們的部門,我首先要處理再保險。毛承保保費為 3.26 億美元,與 2017 年第二季相比下降 3%。這主要是因為我們在專業細分領域的保費較低,在工程等領域的業務較少。本季其餘 3 個子領域均出現了小幅成長。

  • Our Reinsurance business recorded underwriting income of $31 million and a combined ratio of 89.2% in the second quarter. We recorded net cat losses of $10 million or 3.5 percentage points on the loss ratio.

    我們的再保險業務第二季承保收入為 3,100 萬美元,綜合成本率為 89.2%。我們記錄的淨巨災損失為 1000 萬美元,損失率上升了 3.5 個百分點。

  • The accident year ex-cat net loss ratio was 65.2% compared with 64.2% in the second quarter last year. Now that change that I referred to earlier with Silverton, increased that loss ratio by 3.5 points in the quarter. On a like-for-like basis, the accident year ex cat net loss ratio was 61.6%. And there's also an impact from [cork] premiums as they continue to increase as a percentage of the overall reinsurance premiums. The impact on the ex cat loss ratio is a little less than 2 percentage points in the quarter. That said, the second quarter also included approximately 5 percentage points of large losses mainly from a dam collapse and a fire-related loss.

    事故年度除巨災因素外的淨損失率為 65.2%,而去年第二季為 64.2%。我之前提到的 Silverton 的變化使得本季的損失率增加了 3.5 個百分點。以同類計算,事故年度除重大損失外的淨損失率為 61.6%。而且,[軟木]保費也產生了影響,因為它們在整體再保險保費中所佔的百分比持續增加。本季度,這對除巨災損失率的影響略低於 2 個百分點。儘管如此,第二季也出現了約 5 個百分點的巨額損失,主要原因是大壩坍塌和火災相關損失。

  • I'll turn now to insurance. Gross written premiums were $528 million, an increase of 8% compared to the second quarter last year. Growth came across all 3 subsegments, particularly our targeted growth lines. We continue to see further impact on our insurance book this quarter from the reinsurance changes that we've implemented. Net written premiums were $219 million, a 25% decrease from $293 million in the second quarter of 2017. This resulted in a net gross written premium ratio of 42% in the quarter compared with 60% in the second quarter of 2017. The net loss ratio in the Insurance segment was 62.2%, down from 66.9% in the second quarter last year. We had approximately $8 million or 4 percentage points of net cat losses from weather-related events.

    現在我來談談保險。毛承保保費為 5.28 億美元,較去年第二季成長 8%。所有 3 個子領域均實現了成長,特別是我們的目標成長線。我們繼續看到本季我們實施的再保險變更對我們的保險帳簿產生了進一步的影響。淨承保保費為 2.19 億美元,較 2017 年第二季的 2.93 億美元下降 25%。這使得本季淨毛承保保費比率為 42%,而 2017 年第二季為 60%。保險部門的淨損失率為 62.2%,低於去年第二季的 66.9%。我們因天氣相關事件遭受了約 800 萬美元或 4% 的淨損失。

  • Looking at the accident year ex cat loss ratio, I wanted to first focus on the gross loss ratio, which was 59.2% in the second quarter. This is down from 65.7% in the first quarter and also an improvement from the 63.1% in the second quarter of 2017. This improvement in the ratio is driven mainly by our U.S. property book which reported a better quarter following the underwriting actions that David Cohen and the insurance team have been implementing. Our insurance business remains heavily reinsured as part of our strategy to reduce volatility and PML exposures. And on a net basis, the accident year ex-cat loss ratio was 63.5% for the quarter. The flip side of this change of course is the ceding commissions we received. The acquisition ratio improved to 10% this quarter compared with 14.8% in the second quarter of 2017.

    在查看事故年度扣除巨災損失率時,我首先要關注的是總損失率,第二季該比率為 59.2%。這一數字低於第一季的 65.7%,但高於 2017 年第二季的 63.1%。這一比率的改善主要得益於我們的美國房地產業務,在大衛科恩和保險團隊實施承保行動後,該季度業績表現更好。作為我們降低波動性和 PML 風險敞口策略的一部分,我們的保險業務仍然大量採用再保險。以淨額計算,本季事故年度除巨災損失率為 63.5%。當然,這種變化的另一面是我們收到的轉讓佣金。本季收購率從 2017 年第二季的 14.8% 提高至 10%。

  • The improving loss ratio and expense ratio resulted in a combined ratio for Aspen Insurance of 97% and this compares with 104.4% in the second quarter of 2017.

    損失率和費用率的改善導致 Aspen Insurance 的綜合成本率為 97%,而 2017 年第二季為 104.4%。

  • I'll now move on to Investments where we generated net investment income of $50 million, an increase of 6% compared with second quarter of 2017. That's driven predominantly by higher new money yields. The total return on the aggregate investment portfolio was flat in the quarter, reflecting mark-to-market changes in the fixed income portfolio driven by rising interest rates. The fixed income book yield was 2.63%, up from 2.56% at the end of 2017. The duration of the fixed income portfolio remains around 3.9 years.

    現在我來談談投資,我們創造了 5,000 萬美元的淨投資收入,與 2017 年第二季相比成長了 6%。這主要是由於新資金收益率上升所致。本季總投資組合的總回報持平,反映了受利率上升推動的固定收益投資組合的市價變化。固定收益帳面收益率為2.63%,高於2017年底的2.56%。固定收益投資組合的久期維持在3.9年左右。

  • Before I finish, I wanted to provide an update on the ongoing work to enhance the debt and capital structure of the group. During the second quarter, as Chris noted, we took the opportunity to redeem $125 million of our most expensive debt, the 6% coupon 2020 senior notes. The total cost of this redemption was $134 million, including a make-whole payment of $8.6 million which was recorded as a charge in the quarter. As a result of the partial redemption, our debt-to-capital ratio decreased to 13.1% and we expect interest savings of approximately $19 million as a result of this saving -- of this redemption.

    在結束之前,我想介紹一下正在進行的改善集團債務和資本結構的工作的最新情況。正如克里斯指出的那樣,在第二季度,我們藉此機會贖回了 1.25 億美元的最昂貴債務,即票面利率為 6% 的 2020 年優先票據。此次贖回的總成本為 1.34 億美元,其中包括 860 萬美元的補償付款,該款項已在本季度記錄為費用。由於部分贖回,我們的債務資本比率下降至 13.1%,我們預計透過此贖回可節省約 1,900 萬美元的利息。

  • And with that, I'll now turn the call back to Chris.

    說完這些,我現在將電話轉回給克里斯。

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Scott. So our financial results reflect actions that we have taken and continue to take to build on the strength of the Aspen franchise and position the company well for the future. Our board, our leadership team and our employees right across the company remain enthusiastically and energetically committed to delivering strong results and creating shareholder value.

    謝謝,斯科特。因此,我們的財務表現反映了我們已經採取並將繼續採取的行動,以增強 Aspen 特許經營的實力,並為公司的未來做好充分準備。我們的董事會、領導團隊和全公司的員工仍然熱情且積極地致力於實現強勁業績並創造股東價值。

  • Before we go on to Q&A, I want to reiterate what I said on our last call rather. Our board is very open minded and all options remain on the table in terms of preserving and creating shareholder value. Those statements have always been true and are still true and very much in the forefront of our minds. If and when a material change occurs, we will tell you. However, we won't be commenting further on these matters today. Thank you for participating in the call this morning.

    在我們繼續問答之前,我想重申一下我在上次通話中所說的話。我們的董事會思想非常開放,在維護和創造股東價值方面,所有選擇都擺在桌面上。這些言論始終是正確的,現在仍然是正確的,並且在我們的腦海中佔據最重要的位置。如果發生重大變化,我們會通知您。不過,我們今天不會對這些問題發表進一步評論。感謝您參加今天早上的電話會議。

  • With that, we're happy to take your questions.

    我們很樂意回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Amit Kumar of Buckingham Research.

    (操作員指示)第一個問題來自白金漢研究公司的阿米特·庫馬爾 (Amit Kumar)。

  • Amit Kumar - Analyst

    Amit Kumar - Analyst

  • Just going back to your concluding remarks. I wanted to ask something differently. The insurance book is now down meaningfully. You gave us a lot of color in how the book looks different, how the cat losses would be different. To I guess flip the question, do you think that the Board of Director foresee the possibility where a standalone Aspen could continue to exist, or has that ship sailed?

    回到你的結論部分。我想問一些不同的事情。保險帳簿現在已大幅下降。您為我們提供了豐富的色彩,讓我們了解這本書有何不同,以及貓的損失有何不同。我想反過來問一下,您是否認為董事會預見了獨立的 Aspen 可能繼續存在的可能性,或者這艘船已經啟航了?

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • I think what I said towards the end of the call, Amit, probably something similar to what I said 3 months ago, is the board is open-minded. It should be open-minded. And what we are evaluating is what is the best course of action for our shareholders in creating and preserving value. How well, that particular course is ranging from a sale to a continued defense. There are many -- our options really is an open question. We are still looking at that. We -- it won't take forever. We'll -- we should relatively soon. But when we do, if it's change of course we'll let you know. But I can't rule in or rule out any possibility.

    阿米特,我想我在通話結束時說的話可能與我三個月前說的類似,那就是董事會持開放態度。應當心胸開闊。我們正在評估的是什麼是為我們的股東創造和保留價值的最佳行動方案。怎麼樣,那個特定的課程從銷售到持續的辯護。有很多——我們的選擇確實是一個懸而未決的問題。我們仍在關注此事。我們——這不會花很長時間。我們會——我們應該相對較快。但當我們這樣做時,如果有變化,我們當然會通知您。但我不能確定或排除任何可能性。

  • Amit Kumar - Analyst

    Amit Kumar - Analyst

  • You just said it won't take forever. It will be relatively soon. How should we define relatively soon?

    你剛才說這不會永遠持續下去。將會相對較快。相對很快該如何定義?

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • I think that's purposely vague set of words, Amit. I'm not going to help you with any further with.

    我認為這是故意含糊其辭的一組詞語,阿米特。我不會再為您提供任何幫助。

  • Amit Kumar - Analyst

    Amit Kumar - Analyst

  • Moving on, you moved to Bermuda. Apart from I guess the tax reasons, first of all, what are you doing differently out of Bermuda? And do you -- is that stay sort of -- is there like a timeframe where you plan to be there? Or is that open-ended?

    接下來,您搬到百慕達了。除了稅收原因之外,首先,你們在百慕達做了哪些不同的事情?您計劃在那裡停留多久?有沒有一個時間表?還是這是開放式的?

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • I don't think any non-Bermudian gets open-ended right to stay in Bermuda. I think you get a maximum of a 5-year work permit which the work that I have, that's fairly standard. And if you like Bermuda and Bermuda likes you, you may have an option to extend it again. But we haven't really defined a time. From my point of view, there's a couple of reasons why it makes sense in Bermuda, it's the headquarters of the company. It's geographically very conveniently situated both to get back and forth to London and to New York and to the rest of our U.S. operations. As you know which our U.S. operations that have great growth and promise but also where we've had some issues. So I found this what is better position there and then there's some personal reasons that enter in too, where from a family point of view, Bermuda works very well.

    我認為,任何非百慕達人都不可能獲得無限期地留在百慕達的權利。我認為你最多可以獲得 5 年的工作許可,就我所從事的工作而言,這是相當標準的。如果您喜歡百慕達,百慕達也喜歡您,那麼您可以選擇再次延長。但我們還沒有真正定義時間。從我的角度來看,選擇百慕達有幾個原因,因為它是公司的總部。從地理位置上來說,它往返倫敦、紐約以及我們美國其他業務地點都非常方便。如您所知,我們的美國業務取得了長足的發展,前景廣闊,但也遇到了一些問題。所以我發現那裡的地理位置比較好,也有一些個人原因,從家庭的角度來看,百慕達非常適合。

  • Amit Kumar - Analyst

    Amit Kumar - Analyst

  • And last question, and I will requeue after this, I know you talked about the reserves. Can you just talk about I guess the UEPR remaining on the book which had developed adversely previously?

    最後一個問題,之後我會重新提問,我知道您談到了儲備。您能否談談我猜測書中剩餘的 UEPR 以及先前出現的不利影響?

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • I think Scott can probably handle that one.

    我認為斯科特可能可以處理這個問題。

  • Scott Kirk - Group CFO

    Scott Kirk - Group CFO

  • Yes, Amit. Scott here. I think the piece of the book that you're referencing was the primary habitational component of our U.S. property book. I think we said at the end of last quarter that we were down in the sort of single digit type numbers in terms of that runoff. At the end of this quarter, it's negligible in terms of the impact. I think the great thing that I'm seeing and hopefully you'll pick up on too is that real improvement in that gross ex cat loss ratio at a sub -60 number. So I think the signs are there and the indications are there that David and the team are implementing the right actions.

    是的,阿米特。這裡是斯科特。我認為您所引用的那部分內容是我們美國房地產書籍的主要居住部分。我想我們在上個季度末就說過,就那次決選而言,我們的數字下降到了個位數。到本季末,其影響可以忽略不計。我認為我看到的一件好事,希望您也能注意到,那就是巨災損失率確實有所改善,低於 -60。所以我認為有跡象表明大衛和他的團隊正在採取正確的行動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question come from Brian Meredith of UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

  • Brian Robert Meredith - MD, Financials Research Sector Head & Global Insurance Strategist

    Brian Robert Meredith - MD, Financials Research Sector Head & Global Insurance Strategist

  • A couple here for you. First one, Chris, I'm just curious, given the strategic process that's going on right now, including the departures of some people. Can you kind of talk about just general, the franchise right now? Are things stable? Can you stabilize things? Any lines of business that you are particularly concerned about with some departures?

    這裡有一對夫婦等著你。首先,克里斯,考慮到目前正在進行的戰略進程,包括一些人的離職,我很好奇。您能談談目前的特許經營總體情況嗎?情況穩定嗎?你能穩定局勢嗎?您對哪些業務線的某些員工離職特別擔心?

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, that's a good question, Brian. And difficult -- I'll try to be succinct but there's a lot of shades here just to give you the full picture here. We finished last year by announcing an effective and efficiency program, as you know, as you recall. And that called for some streamlining. So that's a polite word for saying, well you've got too many senior people doing similar jobs, maybe you could take some of them out, have a longer span of control and take that in terms of headcount, and we did some of that. So some good people left. But also, we had areas like each underwriting team had a sort of mini operational hub within it and that's not efficient. So we tend to be building bigger hubs and creating those. And then also outsourcing, which is now well underway. We are working, as I think we said in the last call, with Genpact. This does reduce jobs and it's the ones that you target to reduce. And then there's the ones where people say well you might have moved my job on so I'm going to move myself. So we have had some of that. Mostly we identified the people that we regarded as valuable. We talked to them. We maybe put some retention payments around them and I think we limited that damage to the extent that it could be limited. Now there's another set of factors that's, given that some of the news feed that we've had in the last few months, competitors, I don't blame them at all for this. They see some very quality people, they see some great underwriters, they see some great actuaries and so on and they start giving them a call. Whereas a year ago they probably would have said, "No, I'm happy at Aspen." They now will hear, "I'm very happy at Aspen but I'm going to listen to you" and we've had a few of those. There isn't a single situation where I think we lack the underwriting abilities to be a serious and effective player in what we do. But in areas like property 3T or offshore energy, we've seen some good people go and I'm very sorry to see them go. I think they remain friends of Aspen. I would like to think some of them remain friends of mine. We have always thought a lot about succession planning. We do have strength in that. So mostly what we do is promote within, in 1 or 2 situations we're hiring underwriters to replace part of the smudge. I think that if you look at an increase in attrition rates here amongst key people, it's up a little bit year-on-year. And if you sort of laser focus within that, you're down to a handful. I mean, 5 or 6 people, you think, gosh, I really wish they were still here. So I can't say there's nothing that makes me uncomfortable. But it's not very much. In terms of can we relate to our clients and brokers, the answer is yes. As of this morning, I can tell you that every single reinsurance client that we started this year with is still a reinsurance client. And on the insurance side, we have a growth rate actually better than we had for a couple of years. I mean, that -- we reduced our growth rate 2 years ago because we wanted to reposition book in insurance. That's done. We've now got a lot of good people doing good work and doing a lot more business. So I think if you look at the hard numbers, it looks pretty good. And overall, give us kind of an A+ but maybe not an A++.

    是的,這是個好問題,布萊恩。這很困難——我會盡量簡潔,但這裡有很多細微差別,只是為了讓您全面了解情況。正如你們所知,你們還記得,我們​​在去年年底宣布了一項有效且有效率的計劃。這就需要進行一些精簡。所以這是一種委婉的說法,意思是,你有太多高級職員在做類似的工作,也許你可以把其中一些人調走,延長管理期限,並在員工人數方面採取這種做法,我們確實這樣做了。所以一些優秀的人離開了。但同時,我們的每個核保團隊內部都有一個小型營運中心,效率不高。因此,我們傾向於建立更大的樞紐並創建這些。然後還有外包,現在進展順利。正如我們在上次通話中所說的那樣,我們正在與 Genpact 合作。這確實會減少工作崗位,而這正是你想要減少的。然後有人會說,好吧,你可能已經轉移了我的工作,所以我也要轉移。我們已經有一些這樣的情況了。我們主要確定的是那些我們認為有價值的人。我們和他們交談過。我們可能會向他們支付一些保留金,我認為我們已經將損失限制在可以承受的範圍內。現在還有另一組因素,考慮到我們在過去幾個月收到的一些新聞報道,競爭對手的情況,我一點也不怪他們。他們看到了一些非常優秀的人才、一些優秀的承銷商、一些優秀的精算師等等,然後就開始打電話給他們。而一年前他們可能會說:“不,我在阿斯彭很開心。”他們現在會聽到,“我在阿斯彭很開心,但我要聽你的”,我們已經聽過幾次這樣的話了。我認為,在任何情況下,我們都具備承保能力,能夠認真、有效地履行我們的職責。但在房地產3T或海上能源等領域,我們看到一些優秀人才離開,我對此感到非常遺憾。我認為他們仍然是阿斯彭的朋友。我希望他們中的一些人仍然是我的朋友。我們一直對繼任計畫進行了許多思考。我們確實有這個實力。因此,我們主要做的是內部推廣,在 1 或 2 種情況下,我們會聘請承銷商來彌補部分損失。我認為,如果你看一下這裡關鍵人員的流失率的成長情況,你會發現它比去年同期略有上升。如果你集中註意力,你會發現只剩下少數幾個了。我的意思是,有 5 或 6 個人,你會想,天哪,我真希望他們還在這裡。所以我不能說沒有什麼讓我感到不舒服的事。但不是很多。關於我們能否與客戶和經紀人建立聯繫,答案是肯定的。截至今天早上,我可以告訴你們,我們今年開始合作的每位再保險客戶仍然是再保險客戶。在保險方面,我們的成長率實際上比過去幾年都要好。我的意思是——我們兩年前降低了成長率,因為我們想重新定位保險業務。完成了。現在我們有很多優秀的人才在做著出色的工作,也做了很多生意。所以我認為如果你看一下實際數字,它看起來相當不錯。總體而言,可以給我們 A+ 的評分,但可能不是 A++。

  • Brian Robert Meredith - MD, Financials Research Sector Head & Global Insurance Strategist

    Brian Robert Meredith - MD, Financials Research Sector Head & Global Insurance Strategist

  • Excellent. And then another just quick one here, in some of the comments you mentioned getting out of aviation at Lloyd's, some of the other things. What's the kind of premium associated with some of the lines of business that you're exiting now that we should think of them?

    出色的。然後這裡再簡單說一下,在一些評論中你提到了離開勞合社航空業以及其他一些事情。我們應該考慮,您現在退出的一些業務線涉及什麼樣的溢價?

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • Across the 3 of them, maybe it's about $120 million thereabouts. So not especially capital-intensive lines of business. But there will be a free-up of capital associated with that as well.

    這三家公司的總價值大概在 1.2 億美元左右。因此,這不是特別資本密集的業務線。但這也將帶來資本的釋放。

  • Brian Robert Meredith - MD, Financials Research Sector Head & Global Insurance Strategist

    Brian Robert Meredith - MD, Financials Research Sector Head & Global Insurance Strategist

  • And that's towards the -- that's the insurance, and the insurance (inaudible) area?

    那是針對──那是保險,保險(聽不清楚)領域?

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • They're all insurance. There are really 3 things where -- in Marine Hull, because a good -- couple of things going against, Marine Hull, highly commoditized business. We happen to have a very, very good team, they're on the Lloyd's platform, that is the most expensive platform we have and the cost is not within our control. And the way the brokers behave, they're very commoditized. I think it's just very, very tough even though our loss ratios aren't -- they're not great but they're not lacking in respectability. But combine them with a kind of, I think, a strategic downwind and a high expense base it didn't make sense to us. That was Marine Hull at Lloyd's. Aviation, we've got a great track record there. But I think the world has moved on and we just don't think of Aviation as a place where we want to put our capital in the future. And finally, professional liability is a terrific line for us, led in the U.S. by Bruce Eisler, he's done fantastic things with his 6, 7 years with the company. But in Lloyd's, it just wasn't working, Bruce just said, "just -- we can put more capital elsewhere and get a real return." So let's just not -- consider it all successfully in that area.

    它們都是保險。在 Marine Hull 中,實際上有三件事,因為有幾件事與 Marine Hull 高度商品化的業務相悖。我們剛好有一個非常非常優秀的團隊,他們在勞合社平台上,這是我們最昂貴的平台,而且成本不在我們的控制範圍內。經紀人的行為方式非常商品化。我認為這是十分艱難的,儘管我們的損失率不算高,但也不算低。但我認為,將它們與一種策略順風和高昂的費用基礎結合起來,對我們來說沒有意義。那是勞合社的 Marine Hull。在航空領域,我們有著出色的業績記錄。但我認為世界已經向前發展了,我們只是不認為航空業是我們未來想要投入資本的地方。最後,專業責任對我們來說是一個非常重要的領域,在美國由布魯斯·艾斯勒 (Bruce Eisler) 領導,他在公司工作的 6、7 年時間裡做出了非凡的成就。但在勞合社,這種方法行不通,布魯斯說,「我們可以把更多的資本投入到其他地方,獲得真正的回報。」所以我們不要僅僅認為該領域的一切都是成功的。

  • Brian Robert Meredith - MD, Financials Research Sector Head & Global Insurance Strategist

    Brian Robert Meredith - MD, Financials Research Sector Head & Global Insurance Strategist

  • Great. And then just quickly, Scott, investment income. You may have mentioned it but it was up pretty significantly in the quarter sequentially, the book yields also. Is that just simply from higher invest yields or was there anything other unusual going on?

    偉大的。然後,斯科特,很快,投資收益。您可能已經提到過,但本季環比成長相當顯著,帳面收益率也同樣如此。這只是因為投資報酬率較高還是有其他異常情況發生?

  • Scott Kirk - Group CFO

    Scott Kirk - Group CFO

  • Yes, Brian, a good spot, $50 million, it is up about $3 million or $4 million on what the average run rate that we've seen. A couple of things going on there. New money yields are up. They're around the 3% mark, which I think is a good indication as to how it will look go forward. The one piece that is in there though, there was some trailing dividend income. You'll notice in our print-up it was about [$700,000 to $1 million] or so. So I think you've got to think about that removing that element of it go forward.

    是的,布萊恩,這是一個好價錢,5000 萬美元,比我們看到的平均運行率高出約 300 萬或 400 萬美元。那裡發生了幾件事。新資金收益率上升。它們的比例在 3% 左右,我認為這很好地預示了未來的發展方向。不過,其中有一項是,有一些滯後的股息收入。您會在我們的印刷品中註意到它的價值約為 [700,000 美元到 100 萬美元] 左右。所以我認為你必須考慮去除這個元素。

  • Brian Robert Meredith - MD, Financials Research Sector Head & Global Insurance Strategist

    Brian Robert Meredith - MD, Financials Research Sector Head & Global Insurance Strategist

  • Got you. Got you. But the fixed income stuff is kind of a good run rate, the $49.7 million?

    明白了。明白了。但是固定收益的運行率還不錯,4,970 萬美元?

  • Scott Kirk - Group CFO

    Scott Kirk - Group CFO

  • I think it's a fair run rate. I mean of course it's always going to be determined by cash flows in and out and the like. But I don't think it's a bad thought on the way forward.

    我認為這是一個合理的運行率。我的意思是,當然它總是由現金流入和流出等決定。但我並不認為這是一個前進道路上的壞想法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The next question comes from [Ian La Pui] of [Morris Capital].

    (操作員指示)下一個問題來自 [Morris Capital] 的 [Ian La Pui]。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Two questions. The first, there was another increase in reinsurance receivables or recoverables. Can you give any color on the counterparties and whether there's been any sort of new counterparties or any change from what you've disclosed in your last 10-Q? And then the other is could you just give some color on the FX losses during the quarter?

    兩個問題。第一,再保險應收帳款或回收款項再次增加。您能否介紹一下交易對手的情況,以及是否有任何新的交易對手,或者與您在上一份 10-Q 報告中披露的內容相比有任何變化?另外,您能否介紹一下本季的外匯損失?

  • Scott Kirk - Group CFO

    Scott Kirk - Group CFO

  • Yes, sure, [Ian]. It's Scott Kirk here. I'll take both of those. The increase in the ceded recoverables is of course related to the increased quota share arrangements that we have in place. We placed those with very high-quality counterparts, the distribution of which will have not changed in any significant way from the numbers that we would've released in the K. So that's part 1. Foreign exchange, that's a subject close to my heart. So a lot of challenges in terms of the geography and the accounting rules that surround FX. There are in fact 2 pieces that we need to look at. We economically hedge our balance sheet and our exposure to sterling, euro, Canadian, all these where we have branches around the world. Unfortunately, we don't achieve hedge accounting, which is quite a high bar. And that tends to flow through our P&L. You'll have noticed there in the quarter that we had about a $41 million loss sitting there. The other side of this though is translation. And there's about $35 million of gain coming through other comprehensive income. So the net impact of this in the quarter is actually quite small. But it's just geography. And you know the dollar has gone through a period of sort of strengthening, weakening and strengthening again over the first 6 months of the year. So that's what caused the deviation. What I would say though, on a year-to-date basis, so through the first 6 months, the net of those 2 pieces is in fact a small gain of about $3 million.

    是的,當然,[伊恩]。我是史考特·柯克。我會接受這兩個。轉讓可收回金額的增加當然與我們現有的增加的配額分配安排有關。我們將這些與非常高品質的對應物放在一起,其分佈與我們在 K 中發布的數字相比不會發生任何顯著變化。這是第一部分。外匯,這是我非常關心的一個主題。因此,外匯在地理和會計規則方面面臨許多挑戰。事實上我們需要看兩個部分。我們從經濟角度對沖了我們的資產負債表和對英鎊、歐元、加拿大元的風險敞口,我們在世界各地都有分支機構。不幸的是,我們沒有實現套期會計,這是一個相當高的標準。這往往會流經我們的損益表。您會注意到,本季我們虧損了約 4,100 萬美元。但另一方面是翻譯。另外還有約 3500 萬美元的收益來自其他綜合收入。因此,本季的淨影響實際上相當小。但這只是地理問題。你知道,今年前六個月美元經歷了走強、走弱、再走強的時期。這就是造成偏差的原因。不過我想說的是,從年初至今,也就是前 6 個月來看,這兩部分的淨收益其實是約 300 萬美元的小幅收益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we have a follow-up from Amit Kumar of Buckingham Research.

    我們也得到了白金漢研究公司的阿米特·庫馬爾的後續報導。

  • Amit Kumar - Analyst

    Amit Kumar - Analyst

  • Just a few cleanup questions. Number one, going back to the discussion on leverage and I think you mentioned a number -- are you sort of all set there? Or are there more actions on leverage front?

    僅有幾個清理問題。第一,回到關於槓桿的討論,我想您提到了一個數字——您準備好了嗎?或者在槓桿方面還有更多行動嗎?

  • Scott Kirk - Group CFO

    Scott Kirk - Group CFO

  • Amit, it's Scott here. Yes, we redeemed $125 million of the 2020 notes. Feel very comfortable with where we are in terms of our leveraging position as it stands.

    阿米特,我是史考特。是的,我們贖回了 1.25 億美元的 2020 年票據。就我們目前的槓桿地位而言,我們感到非常滿意。

  • Amit Kumar - Analyst

    Amit Kumar - Analyst

  • Got it. The second question I wanted to go back to Brian's question on employee departures. And if I look at the K, I think you had 1,300 employees as of 2017. And I think the departures are obviously a very small percentage of that. Can you just talk about, I don't know, any update to that number or maybe just broadly talk about how we should think about the employee count here versus year end?

    知道了。第二個問題我想回到布萊恩關於員工離職的問題。如果我看 K,我認為截至 2017 年,你們有 1,300 名員工。我認為離職人數顯然只佔其中很小的比例。您能否談談該數字的任何更新,或者只是大致談談我們應該如何看待這裡的員工人數與年底的員工人數?

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • So I'm not quite sure -- could you say again what the date of that headcount figure you said...

    所以我不太確定——您能否再說一遍您所說的員工人數的日期......

  • Amit Kumar - Analyst

    Amit Kumar - Analyst

  • I think the 10-K had 1,300, if I have the right exhibit in front of me. So I'm just wondering if you could just talk about (inaudible).

    如果我面前有正確的展品,我認為 10-K 有 1,300 個。所以我只是想知道您是否可以談談(聽不清楚)。

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • Prior to that, we had been 200 to 300 higher. When we owned AgriLogic, we had 250 to 300 people doing that. So we don't own that business now but we have an equity interest board on managing it. So you're up with the reduction there. We are probably sitting at a very similar number of employees to the one that you quoted. I don't actually have it at my fingertips. But clearly in most cases when people leave in an unplanned way, you got to replace them and given the cost conscious environment, I personally sign off on every new employee and I got to tell you, I'm a bit busier than I would like to be in that regard. I would say maybe a week goes by but never 2 weeks go by that there isn't sort of 10, 15 people. We vet those, if they're finance guys it might be Scott; if it's operations, David Schick; underwriting, it could be David Cohen or it could be our reinsurance guys, and we make sense that -- we see ourselves it makes sense to replace them. So I think at that point of view headcount is stable. Then you've got the effectiveness, efficiency which is a gradual program of making ourselves more efficient and getting more done with fewer people in the organization and outsourcing more functions. The outsourcing will have an impact on the numbers of workforce. That hasn't really begun to bite yet. I mean, we are just at the beginning really over the last few weeks. So I think going forward, we -- you would find a meaningful reduction of that 1,300. We're talking though this time last -- next year, something in excess of 10%, in the range 10% to 20% would not be inconceivable.

    在此之前,我們的數字已經高出 200 到 300。當我們擁有 AgriLogic 時,我們有 250 到 300 人從事這項工作。所以我們現在並不擁有該業務,但我們有一個股權委員會來管理它。所以您已經達到了減少的水平。我們的員工人數可能與您所說的非常相似。我實際上並沒有把它放在手邊。但顯然在大多數情況下,當人們以非計劃的方式離職時,你必須找人來替代他們,考慮到成本意識強的環境,我親自批准每一位新員工,而且我必須告訴你,在這方面我比我想要的要忙一些。我想說也許一周過去了,但兩週過去了,那裡肯定不會沒有 10 到 15 個人。我們對這些人進行審查,如果他們是金融人士,那可能是斯科特;如果是運營的話,是 David Schick;承保人可能是大衛科恩 (David Cohen),也可能是我們的再保險人員,我們認為更換他們是合理的。所以我認為從這個角度來看員工人數是穩定的。然後你就得到了有效性和效率,這是一個循序漸進的計劃,旨在提高我們的效率,用組織中更少的人員和外包更多的職能來完成更多的工作。外包將對勞動力數量產生影響。但實際上這還沒有開始產生影響。我的意思是,過去幾週我們才剛開始。因此我認為,展望未來,你會發現這 1,300 人的數量將會顯著減少。我們正在談論去年這個時候——明年,超過 10%、在 10% 到 20% 的範圍內的成長並不是不可想像的。

  • Amit Kumar - Analyst

    Amit Kumar - Analyst

  • Got it. And personally I hope you're busy signing off on bigger things versus moonlighting as HR. The final question...

    知道了。就我個人而言,我希望您忙於簽署更大的文件,而不是兼職做人力資源。最後一個問題...

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • I assure you I do. It's not a full-time job.

    我向你保證我會的。這不是一份全職工作。

  • Scott Kirk - Group CFO

    Scott Kirk - Group CFO

  • (inaudible)

    (聽不清楚)

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • It's a useful little control to have in there.

    這是一個很有用的小控制。

  • Amit Kumar - Analyst

    Amit Kumar - Analyst

  • No, I totally agree that. Final question then I'll stop here. On the (inaudible) development, if you could just spend a bit more time talking about the issues we have seen at some other companies. Maybe just talk about your experience on [bank card] loss and may be the LAE side and even the ALB crisis, issue. This may be just give us some more color as to what you're seeing on that.

    不,我完全同意這一點。最後一個問題,我就講到這裡。關於(聽不清楚)發展,如果您可以花更多時間談論我們在其他一些公司看到的問題。也許只是談談您在[銀行卡]丟失方面的經歷,可能是LAE方面甚至ALB危機的問題。這可能只是讓我們對您所看到的內容有更多的了解。

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • I'm very happy to do that and maybe I'll give you what underlies our experience. And if you need some numbers, then I'll turn to Scott. But the way this thing, all 3 of them, but I think it's particularly Irma, the way it's run off is not a surprise. And the reason is it's not a surprise is a long time ago we said when we do reinsurance in a place like Florida, we need a client. A client is an insurance company. Insurance company has capital. A decent amount of capital. It has an IT system. It has operations. It doesn't just have the CEO and the CFO, because it has claims. It has claims adjusters. It does all the things it needs to do, to be done, to run the business wisely. And that's why when we look for a client in Florida we are likely to choose a national writer, it may even be even a commercial industrial writer with full disclosures because we think they do the job well. And when you turn to the undercapitalized companies, they tend to be, maybe they don't have any claims adjusters or it's a skeleton crew and when something happens they're out there looking for adjusters and they're paying more money for not the highest quality adjusters. So they're not looking after their policyholders very well. So a unit exposure to one of these guys is going to give you more loss, than units of exposure to a big properly run insurance company. And that is fundamentally how for years now we've positioned our [best reactor] Christian Dunleavy, first-class underwriter, runs cat-light growth out of Bermuda now and that's what he's doing. So I don't want to say we have no exposure to the lightly capitalized guys in Dade and Broward but we just don't really see that as a core part of our book, which means we are not exposed so much today to Dade and Broward, that means we are not exposed to the LAE problem and the same underwriter problems that others maybe have. That's why I think our reserves -- or one reason our reserves have proved to be modestly redundant so far.

    我很樂意這樣做,也許我可以告訴你我們的經驗。如果您需要一些數字,那麼我會向斯科特尋求幫助。但就這三種颶風而言,我認為尤其是伊爾瑪颶風,它的消亡方式並不令人意外。原因並不奇怪,很久以前我們就說過,當我們在佛羅裡達這樣的地方做再保險時,我們需要一個客戶。客戶是一家保險公司。保險公司有資本。相當數量的資本。它有一個IT系統。它有操作。它不僅僅有首席執行官和首席財務官,因為它有索賠。它有理賠員。它做了所有需要做的事情,明智地經營業務。這就是為什麼當我們在佛羅裡達尋找客戶時,我們可能會選擇全國性的作家,甚至可能是一位擁有完整披露的商業工業作家,因為我們認為他們做得很好。而當你轉向資金不足的公司時,他們往往沒有任何理賠員,或者只有一個精幹的團隊,當發生事故時,他們就會去尋找理賠員,而且他們會為不是最高品質的理賠員支付更多的錢。所以他們沒有很好地照顧他們的保單持有人。因此,與向一家經營良好的大型保險公司投保相比,向這些公司投保一個單位的損失會更大。這就是多年來我們定位 [最佳反應器] Christian Dunleavy 的基本方式,他是一流的承銷商,現在在百慕達經營貓燈增長,這就是他正在做的事情。因此,我不想說我們沒有接觸過戴德和布勞沃德的輕資本公司,但我們只是沒有真正將其視為我們賬簿的核心部分,這意味著我們今天對戴德和布勞沃德的接觸並不多,這意味著我們沒有受到 LAE 問題以及其他人可能遇到的相同承銷商問題的影響。這就是為什麼我認為我們的儲備——或者說我們的儲備迄今為止被證明是略微過剩的一個原因。

  • Amit Kumar - Analyst

    Amit Kumar - Analyst

  • And how much was the -- I know we've heard some very high LAE numbers as a percent. I don't know if Scott has that number or any other color on that.

    我知道我們聽說過一些非常高的 LAE 數字(以百分比表示)。我不知道斯科特是否有這個號碼或其他顏色。

  • Scott Kirk - Group CFO

    Scott Kirk - Group CFO

  • Yes, Amit. The number -- the amount of release that we've seen from those HIM-related losses during the quarter was about $20 million. So I think that's testament to the prudent reserving approach that we took in the first place. That brings our sort of net numbers down to those 3 events to under $300 million, around the $280 million, $285 million mark. So use that as a percentage of capital I think is probably the most useful part.

    是的,阿米特。我們在本季看到的與 HIM 相關的損失的釋放金額約為 2000 萬美元。所以我認為這證明了我們首先採取的審慎的儲備態度。這樣,我們對這三項活動的淨收入就降至 3 億美元以下,大約在 2.8 億美元和 2.85 億美元左右。因此,我認為將其用作資本百分比可能是最有用的部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris O'Kane for any closing remarks.

    (操作員指示)我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給克里斯·奧凱恩 (Chris O'Kane) 做最後發言。

  • Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

    Christopher O'Kane - Group CEO & Executive Director

  • We thank you all, for your time and attention this morning. Thanks for listening to the call. I wish you a very good day. Goodbye.

    我們感謝大家今天上午的時間和關注。感謝您收聽電話。祝您有個愉快的一天。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。