Avangrid Inc (AGR) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Avangrid's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker today, Patricia Cosgel, Vice President of Investor and Shareholder Services. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Erica, and good morning to everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Avangrid's third Quarter 2021 Earnings Results. Presenting on the call today are Dennis Arriola, our Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Stuver, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us today for the question-and-answer part of the call will be Bob Kump, Deputy Chief Executive Officer and President of Avangrid; Catherine Stempien, President and CEO of Avangrid Networks; José Antonio Veranda, Co-CEO and President Onshore; and Bill White Co-CEO and President Offshore.

If you do not have a copy of our press release or presentation for today's call, they are available on our website at www.avangrid.com. During today's call, we will make various forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from our forward-looking statements if any of our key assumptions are incorrect or because of other factors discussed in Avangrid's earnings news release and the comments made during this conference call in the Risk Factors section of the accompanying presentation or in our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, each of which can be found on our website, avangrid.com. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

Today's presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today's presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the closest GAAP financial measures.

I will now turn the call over to Dennis.

Well, thanks, Patricia, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for our third quarter earnings call. Overall, I'm really pleased with our operating and financial performance year-to-date. We set some ambitious goals at our Analyst Day in November 2020 with a plan to drive increased accountability, execution and performance at our company. At Avangrid, we're focused on building a company that works to make every day better for our customers, our employees, our communities and our shareholders.

We're headed in the right direction and focused on generating consistently improving results and delivering on our commitments. And our third quarter results continue the positive momentum of the journey we started last year. In the third quarter, our net income is up 28% year-over-year and up 31% year-over-year through the first 9 months. Adjusted net income is up 33% for the quarter versus 2020 and increased 40% through the first 9 months. Our strong results were driven by the solid performance of our networks business as we continue to execute on our road to authorized ROE plan and as we implement the terms of the New York rate case, which was approved last year. And thanks to our excellent performance throughout the year, we are affirming our earnings guidance for 2021. You'll recall that we increased our guidance twice from our original numbers in the beginning of the year. And from where we stand right now, I'm confident we'll deliver.

In addition to our strong financial performance, we continue to execute on our strategic objectives. In Maine, we're delivering on our commitment to improve customer service. Over the last 18 months, we've met and exceeded -- followed the service quality metrics established by the Maine Public Utilities Commission. And subsequently, we filed to remove the 100 basis point ROE adjustment. In New Mexico, we're awaiting the final approval from the Public Regulation Commission for our PNM Resources merger and continue to expect to receive that approval and to close the transaction in Q4. Our Vineyard Wind 1 project crossed a historic milestone recently, becoming the first commercial scale offshore wind project in the U.S. to achieve financial close and begin construction.

We're also pursuing opportunities to secure additional growth through our bids to Massachusetts most recent RFP and by restructuring our assets with our partners, CIP. When we complete the partnership restructuring, Avangrid renewables will have access to 4.9 gigawatts of lease areas along the East Coast, including Kitty Hawk. In Onshore wind and solar, we have approximately 1.4 gigawatts of projects with PPAs, including nearly 1 gigawatt actively under construction with a substantial near-term pipeline behind it. In addition, we've continued to strengthen our executive team as we position the company for future success.

We recently appointed Mainer, Joe Purington as Central Maine Power's new President and CEO. We also announced changes that will further strengthen our renewables executive team by providing focused leadership for the offshore and onshore businesses through our 2 Co Presidents and CEOS, Jose Antonio Miranda for our onshore business; and Bill White for our offshore business. Altogether, Joe, Bill and Jose Antonio bring roughly 4 decades of executive experience to the Avangrid team.

Now I also want to thank Alejandro de Hoz, our former CEO of Avangrid Renewables for all of his hard work over the years, and we all wish him all the best as he returns back to Spain to join his family. I am, however, saddened to report the recent passing of David Flanagan, our former Executive Chairman of CMP. David was an exceptional person. He was selfless, passionate, a dedicated leader and a mentor to many. David epitomize the definition of certain leadership, and he's going to be missed not only by our employees, but also by the people of Maine.

In September, we released our first ESG+F webinar to provide insight into our approach to sustainability as well as our key goals and priorities as we seek to become the leading sustainable energy company in the U.S. And lastly, we issued our first screen bonds at the utility level, totaling $625 million, and we experienced extremely strong demand from the market for even more. So all in all, another strong quarter focused on execution and delivering on our commitments. I'm really proud of our team for their hard work to get us to where we are today, but I'm even more excited for all the opportunities that lie ahead for Avangrid.

So let's turn to Slide 6. Our networks business is the foundation of our capital plan and earnings, making up close to 80% of our business today and approximately 85% by 2022 after the close of the PNM merger. As we mentioned at our November 2020 Investor Day, we plan to invest over $12 billion in networks through 2025 to better serve our customers, drive operational excellence and make the critical system enhancements needed to support the clean energy transition. Bolstering those investment plans is our road to authorized ROE for our utilities.

By implementing our rate plans and cultivating a continuous improvement culture, we're driving long-term investment at all of our companies. Also, our targeted resiliency spending in vegetation management and equipment modernization is helping us improve our earned ROEs over time. We're continuing our focus on improving safety, reliability, resiliency and affordability with specific projects in each of our states as well as focusing on successful store planning and restoration as we did with Tropical Storm Henri and Hurricane Ida. And while our growing rate base, new rate plans and investments will support future earnings growth, we still have a lot more work to do.

Turning to Slide 7. We're putting our commitment to the customer in action. We've established customer listening counsels at each of our network utilities to help us better serve our customers and our local communities every day. In Maine, CMP has not only achieved but exceeded its service quality metrics over the last 18 months. And with this, we filed to remove the 100 basis point ROE adjustment. We're hopeful to have this resolved by the Maine commission in early 2022. But let's be clear. Our filing is not an end to the good work our team has done in Maine. But rather, it's a pledge, a pledge to do even more because our customers expect it, and we're focused on making every day better for them in the future.

And to reinforce our commitment, CMP will submit a plan to Maine regulators to maintain reliability and customer service quality and to keep our positive momentum growing. And I'm confident that under Joe Purington's leadership, we'll continue to raise the bar and deliver excellent service for our customers in Maine. Now we're also going to continue to collaborate with regulators on ongoing COVID-19 response and cost recovery. In New York and Connecticut, we've been able to defer COVID-19 costs, allowing us to support our customers in addressing continued challenges relating to the pandemic. We recognize that we need to be part of the solution and are actively working with key stakeholders in each of our states to address the issues facing our customers.

Lastly, construction is well underway on our New England Clean Energy Connect or NECEC project, and we're making good progress. Over 75% of the corridor has been cleared with the majority of the transmission line going through existing rights of way, and around 100 polls have been installed so far. These construction activities have supported approximately 650 jobs to date, while Maine towns are already benefiting from tax payments tied to NECEC. We remain encouraged by the support we've seen to NECEC over the last several months as our team continues to share the facts and combat misinformation spread by companies that own fossil fuel generation in New England. We're focused on defeating the November 2 referendum related to the project, and our growing grass roots campaign is working hard every day to help voters better understand the benefits of the project to Mainers, the economy, the environment and the region.

So porters of NECEC and parties against the referendum include Governor Janet Mills, former Governor, Paul Lepage, the 2 largest and most influential newspapers in the state, The Portland Press Herald and The Bangor Daily News, labor leaders, including the ASL, CIO and the IBEW, the main Chamber of Commerce and the conservation law foundation, just to name a few. And our team is going to remain focused on getting out the vote and informing voters of what this referendum is all about.

Let's turn to Slide 8. We remain on track to close our merger with PNM resources this quarter, with just 1 approval remaining from the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission. When combined, Avangrid and PNM would together serve 9 million people across 6 states with an attractive regulated business mix and a rate base of over $14 billion. Our strong ESG+F commitment and support for renewables growth will bolster both New Mexico and Texas as leaders in the clean energy transition. The merger will create attractive regulated and renewables growth opportunities for our business, and we expect the transaction to be over 3% accretive in the first full year. This transaction makes sense for the customers of PNM in New Mexico, and we're pleased that 23 of the 24 filing intervenors either support the merger directly or have decided not to oppose the approval.

Moving to Slide 9. Avangrid Renewables, the third largest developer and operator of renewables in the U.S. has the scale, expertise, pipeline and people to continue our growth into the future. I'm very excited I will have Jose Antonio's experience and leadership, focused on the continued growth of our onshore business and Bill White, leading our growing offshore business. We recognize that our projects need to help address the challenges and opportunities faced by our customers, and our organization continues to evolve in order to be part of that solution. We're continuing to make progress on approximately 1.4 gigawatts of near-term solar and onshore wind projects with PPAs, of which nearly 1 gigawatt is actively under construction.

And early this year, our Roaring Brook Wind Project was fully commissioned is now producing clean energy for the people of New York. Now Doug is going to touch on later on inflation. But overall, our wind projects are contracted through 2023, including Vineyard Wind 1, and our solar modules are contracted through 2022. Regarding our long-term growth in our onshore business, we have another 2.5 gigawatts of mature projects shortlisted or in bilateral negotiations for PPAs and our approximately 18 gigawatt onshore pipeline.

Now let me turn to our offshore wind business on Slide 10. September was an extraordinary month, both in the history of the industry and AboveNet. Our joint venture, Vineyard wind, brought the first commercial scale offshore wind project in U.S. Waters, Vineyard Wind 1 to financial close. The project has closed $2.3 billion of construction and term loan financing with 9 global lending banks. This mode of confidence from the financial community and our pioneering project validates our approach and underscores the economic value created by Vineyard Wind 1. Now construction has already started for the onshore substation and export cable route, and we expect to begin offshore construction in the first half of 2022.

We'll start delivering clean power to Massachusetts in 2023 and reach full commercial operations in 2024. We secured and have under contract 100% of the equipment for Vineyard Wind 1, which will continue to be owned 50-50 by Avangrid Renewables and CIP. On September 15, Vineyard Wind submitted 2 proposals in response to Massachusetts third offshore wind request for proposal, offering options of approximately 800 megawatts and 1,200 megawatts. We're calling this project Commonwealth Wind, and it includes the development of an offshore wind project in an area just south of the Vineyard Wind 1 and Park City Wind project. We put forward 2 very strong bids with exceptional economic and social benefits for the commonwealth of Massachusetts.

As part of the proposal, our JV company announced a partnership with the City of Salem and Crowley Maritime Corporation to transform Salem Harbor into the state's second major offshore wind port. Vineyard Wind also announced the first of its kind partnership with 20 municipal electric utilities in Massachusetts that will allow them to purchase up to 150 gigawatt hours a year of electricity in addition to renewable energy credits, and this is going to enable them to grain their portfolios across the state. We expect the results of the Massachusetts RFP in mid-December.

Please turn to Slide 11. As we mentioned earlier, we also recently announced changes to our Vineyard Wind joint venture that will further position Avangrid renewables as an undisputed leader in the offshore wind industry. As a result of restructuring, Avangrid will have 100% ownership of 4.9 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity. Now this includes the 2.4 gigawatts of available capacity in New England from our current partnership, which will be fully contracted before year-end if our largest bid option in Massachusetts is selected and an additional 2.5 gigawatts in North Carolina and Virginia from our Kitty Hawk pact.

The partnership restructuring requires approval from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management as well as the Connecticut electric distribution companies. We expect approvals to be completed during the first quarter of next year. This restructuring is aligned with our long-term growth strategy and our aspiration to lead the nation's offshore wind industry.

Now turning to Slide 12. With offshore wind, we're uniquely positioned to play a leadership role with our 4.9 gigawatt lease areas. In addition to our strong offshore team, our affiliation with Iberdrola provides us a deep bench of offshore wind expertise to leverage. Iberdrola has a very well-proven track record in offshore wind globally as they've constructed 1.5 gigawatts on time and on budget. These projects are now being operated with strong availability and production figures. And building on this successful track record, Iberdrola has 2.9 gigawatts in advanced development backed by a 23 gigawatt global pipeline. To be successful in offshore wind, you have to have more than just leases and even PPAs. You also need to have an experienced team, know-how in dealing with contractors in construction and access to capital. And our affiliation with Iberdrola gives Avangrid a competitive advantage in offshore wind.

Let me finish on Slide 13. As one of the nation's clean this utility been a leader in renewable energy, Avangrid stands at the forefront of the transformational change in how we generate and use energy. Our ESG and as practices are core to our sustainable value proposition and our long-term success. And to showcase what we're doing to reach our key goals, including renewables growth and emissions reduction, supplier sustainability and diversity and equity and inclusion.

We recently released Avangrid's first ever sustainability webinar titled Clean and Connected. The webinar is available through this presentation or on the Avangrid website. Our track record in this area has been recognized by multiple external parties, and we're honored to have recently joined the S&P Global Clean Energy Index, which highlights Avangrid as one of up to 100 companies worldwide that can best benefit from the clean energy transition.

Now I'll turn it over to Doug, who will take you through the financial results.

Thank you, Dennis, and good morning, everyone. Turning to our financial performance on Slide 15. Avangrid reported strong consolidated results for the third quarter and first 9 months of 2021, producing adjusted net income of $133 million for the third quarter, a 33% increase from the third quarter of 2020 and $609 million for the first 9 months of the year, a 40% increase from the first 9 months of 2020. The improvement in the third quarter results was led by strong performance in networks, our largest business segment and investment growth in line with our rate plans. Avangrid's consolidated investments for the first 9 months were $2.1 billion, which are up 13% compared to the same period in 2020. Renewables adjusted EBITDA, including the benefit of tax credits for the first 9 months of 2021 increased 25% year-over-year, reflecting the increasing value of that business.

Turning to Slide 16. For the first 9 months of the year, a key driver of our 25% year-over-year adjusted EPS growth has been the implementation of the networks rate plans, predominantly in New York to enhance reliability, resiliency, customer service and safety. Networks AFUDC income related to investment growth was also an important driver, partially reduced by higher depreciation from our growing asset base. Importantly, our outage restoration costs have flattened year-over-year. As you'll recall, outage restoration costs were rising in prior years and a major driver for networks under earnings. With the New York rate plans, we're benefiting by recovering these costs at the more recent higher levels and the additional vegetation management and resiliency investments authorized in the New York rate plan are improving our system and helping to flatten these costs.

Our adjusted EPS growth for the year-to-date period also included the benefits in renewables of our strong operations and asset management during the first quarter Texas weather event, improved energetic availability, higher pricing, additional PTCs and thermal and asset management earnings. Those positive impacts are partially offset by lower wind production from weak wind resource and curtailments that persisted through the third quarter. Our consolidated results also reflect a negative $0.16 per share dilution impact from the May equity offering.

Turning to Slide 17. We added 409 megawatts of new capacity year-over-year from September 2020 to September 2021, and we've improved the energetic availability of our existing projects to over 97%. However, wind production continues to trend below our long-term averages due to low wind resource as well as curtailments, which are impacted by COVID-19 and transmission congestion. Our curtailments are partially reimbursed to approximately 15% levels through our PPAs. The lower production levels for existing assets during the first 9 months of 2021 compared to 2020 were primarily in the North and the East regions with the central region, helping to partially offset those impacts.

On Slide 18, we're pleased with our continued strong year-to-date results, a reflection of our commitment to execution. Therefore, we are affirming our 2021 net income, adjusted net income, earnings per share and adjusted EPS outlooks. As a reminder, our outlook for EPS and adjusted EPS reflects the 78 million shares issued in May to primarily fund the PNM acquisition, which results in 358 million weighted average shares outstanding for 2021. Our outlook also assumes that we do not close on the PNM merger until the end of the year with no PNM Resources earnings or associated merger closing costs.

Finally, recalled in the fourth quarter of 2020, we recognized a cumulative $0.19 benefit retroactive to April 17, 2020, from the settlement of the New York rate cases. Our ongoing focus remains to achieve these targets as we progress on a road to authorized ROE, execute our investment plans with discipline and a risk management focus and continuously drive for operational excellence.

Moving to Slide 19. With inflation and rising commodity prices impacting the sector, we wanted to give you a sense of where Avangrid stands in its management of these risks. Importantly, one of the several benefits we have as a member of the larger global Iberdrola family is access to their significant purchasing power and economies of scale. As a point of reference, Iberdrola has a capital spend of approximately $10 billion per year. Being part of this large organization with significant buying power is a tremendous benefit, helping to mitigate our exposure to rising prices and access to supply. In networks, our largest business segment, our exposure is not material. Energy supply is either sourced directly to customers by third parties or pass-through costs for us.

We actively manage the cost when we are the supplier through effectively contracting and hedging practices. For any CDC, substantially all of the equipment has been purchased and the exposure to additional commodity costs inflation is minor. In renewables, capital investments for the Vineyard Wind 1 project are 100% contracted and for the Park City Wind project for the 2026 COD, we expect to lock in our supply in 2023. In our onshore wind business, our projects under construction are substantially secured. Regarding our exposure in our solar business, we have framework agreements executed for the modules for our 2022 projects under construction, and we are currently working to lock in exposure to the 2023 plus projects.

We're also actively involved through trade organizations when discussions related to solar tariffs, and we're managing through the uncertainties impacting the solar sector. While 2021 was a transition year for us as we pivoted more towards solar development from our traditional onshore wind focus, we have a material number of megawatts expected to come online in the near future, and we have significant opportunities for growth. While our current projects through 2022 for solar and 2023 for wind are contracted, we're seeing a temporary mismatch between supply and demand. Demand for renewables is strong and PPA prices are rising as increases in raw material prices are translated along the value chain. Directionally, growth will continue with supportive state and potentially new federal policies, and we're optimistic about our onshore and offshore renewables opportunities.

Moving to Slide '20. We're also focused on the rise in gas prices nationwide and how we can mitigate the impact on our utility customers. Our utilities are well positioned as our commodity procurement processes in the gas and electric businesses are well established, long-standing and in line with regulatory policy and guidance. In our gas distribution companies, gas costs are a pass-through, and we do not expect supply issues this winter. Customers bear the impact, however, so we procure gas supply in the spring and summer months through supply, storage and transportation contracts to use in the winter months. In New York, we also enter into financial hedges.

With deregulation in our service territories, the cost of generation for our electric distribution companies are also pass-through. Keeping our customers in mind, though, we also procure supply by laddering the purchase of supply during the spring and summer months for winter usage in New York and Connecticut. This acts as a natural hedge. Maine's procurement is managed by the state and not central Maine power. As we monitor this trend and manage the potential impacts, we'll look for continuous improvement in the business as an offset. We'll also work closely with our key stakeholders to ensure we keep them informed about the drivers of the price trends and available programs that provide payment assistance.

Now moving to Slide 21 with our liquidity and financing. We have terrific access to sustainable liquidity resources and demonstrated support for Iberdrola. With the equity issuance this past May, we have a strong $1.4 billion cash position, and we do not expect to issue additional equity in 2022. We're committed to maintaining our solid investment-grade credit ratings. As we previously announced, we expect to fund the P&M merger with $700 million in debt in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, we closed on the construction and loan financing for our vineyard Wind project, raising $2.3 billion from a group of banks. We're committed to sustainable financing.

And as Dennis mentioned earlier, issued $625 million of green bonds out of a total of $900 million, which were our first green bonds issued at the utility level. This raises our ranking in the U.S. among all issuers of green, social and sustainability bonds to #9. Our strong long-standing commitment to and leadership in clean energy was also evident by our addition this month to the S&P Global Clean Energy index, which includes up to 100 companies that are similarly focused on the low carbon transition and sustainability.

To summarize, we had another strong quarter with our focus on the achievement of our financial targets and strategic initiatives and success with sustainable financing execution and recognition. As a result, we're affirming our guidance for 2021. We have risk management and a customer focus at the top of our mind as we manage emerging risks and profitably growth to achieve our goal of adding sustainable value. Thank you for joining us today with our update on third quarter results.

I'll now hand the call back to our operator, Erica, for questions, followed by closing remarks.

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate just a little bit on the supply chain, particularly around the solar projects that are underway. You mentioned the framework agreements. Do those -- is that essentially -- you've got the volume contracted or at least accessible? And is pricing locked in for that as well?

Sure. Look, I think that one of the things that we're seeing being one of the largest developers out there, although we're growing fast in solar is that people want to do business with us. And I think especially given the relationships that we have globally through Evercore, we're able to enter into these framework agreements, which allow for flexibility and best pricing that we can get. We're obviously sensitive to what's going on in the markets, not only from a supply chain standpoint, but what's happening also with the tax and tariff implications. So those are the things that we're watching closely. But let's see Antonio, you may want to provide a little bit more color on how we think about the framework agreement.

Yes. Thank you, Dennis, and good morning, everyone. Very good question, David. Yes. I have to go back to what Doug mentioned before about our 2020 projects already secured -- substantially secured from the supply point of view, being part of the family of Iberdrola, we have TRIM agreements that we can execute in order to get the panels at the prices. Also, of course, I can share with you that an important amount of panels have already signed in active construction now that they are free of this inflation risk. For the future, the situation already mentioned is fluid, and it will depend on what is finally the regulation and the tariffs imposed on the panels, but we will be attentively watching it and negotiating with our supply and global business.

David, I think the other thing, and Doug touched on this as well as given that the changing market, the growing demand and, in some cases, type supply, we are seeing that reflected, as you would expect, in PPA prices. And obviously, as we're dealing with very sophisticated customers, they recognize that as well. So what we're doing is making sure that as we enter into new PPAs that they reflect the current market realities, whether it be through price adjustments or indices that may be tied to what's going on in commodity prices, but also on the labor side because contractors are busy right now. They want to do business with people that are going to pay them and give them consistent work. So we're looking at all those aspects and really trying to manage it from a risk management standpoint, the best we can.

I'd just add to Dennis, that as we look at new projects, we also -- as we think about CapEx, build contingencies into the cost estimates, and that's a buffer for these types of events as well.

Great. No, that's a very helpful color. I appreciate you elaborating on all of those factors. I guess, maybe to -- just 1 quick follow-up on that and to drill down a little bit more. Do you anticipate any -- or do you see the risk of any projects getting delayed, the ones that are in the kind of near-term contracted pipeline as it pertains to solar, but obviously, a lot of moving pieces here. Just wondering how you think about specifically the risk of pushing out any projects or if it might make sense economically to consider that as we get into next year?

I think the way that we look at this, we obviously manage each project closely individually. But we look at this as a portfolio as well. And I think that having that flexibility where it might make sense to proactively delay things because of what's going on the labor side or modules and things like that. But overall, and I think directionally, things continue to move in the same direction. Could there be some delays because of the contractor shortages of labor? There could be. But I think that overall, we're moving in the right direction.

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.

First question just on the earnings for Q3. Can you give any more color on what drove the increase of the corporate segment? And then also on the COVID exclusion, can you just remind us how much to date has been excluded and what the status of recovery on that is?

Sure. Let me hand it over to Doug, and he can provide a little bit more detail.

Sure. David, yes. So for Q3, at corporate, there were really 2 drivers. One is, you may recall, last year in Q3, we took a reserve for a New York state tax audit. That was roughly $7 million of impact in 2020, and that's something that hasn't recurred in 2021. So that's giving us a year-over-year benefit. And then the other element is really just lower interest expense. We had the Evergro alone in effect for the early part of the year through May that had very attractive interest rates. And so that was helpful. And then we issued the equity in May, and that's helped us to avoid having the same level of debt compared to last year. So it's really just a combination of interest and taxes that are driving those corporate results.

And then on COVID.

Yes. So on COVID, in our year-to-date results, we've adjusted out of our GAAP earnings in arriving at adjusted earnings about $23 million to $24 million. From a recovery standpoint, we've begun deferring our COVID costs in Connecticut. That's been something that's been in effect even in last year. And in New York, in the second quarter, we began deferring COVID costs just for year 1, we've not deferred any such cost for rate year 2. And with Maine, we've not been deferring any COVID related costs.

Okay. And then just circling back on some of the renewables commentary. Just looking at the back book that you guys have out there, the latest one seems to indicate some timelines being pushed out on the solar now showing '22 to '23. Any color you can give there? And should we think about that as having any impact on the 2022 guide you gave last year?

I think the way that I would look at it, Michael, is that there could be some shifting of months here and there that go over the calendar year and everything. But I think that's one of the reasons why when we give a range of earnings that when we talked about at the November Analyst Day, we gave directionally, the 6% to 8% growth year-over-year for the 5-year period we gave you the -- what we were thinking about for 2022. So I think it falls within the range overall. We still feel -- we haven't reaffirmed our 2022 numbers. We're going to be doing that at the end of the fourth quarter. But I think directionally, any shifts in projects don't have any material impact to the overall direction we're headed. But I say Antonio, I don't know if you want to add anything to that?

Yes. Actually, we feel very positive about the draws of our site in the solar construction. We -- of course, we have nothing new that as all the other players do industry by issues like they call it in the early months or the LIBOR payments that you referred before. But the situation now is that we have 2 big projects in an advanced state of construction for solar that are going to be our first one, big projects, and we feel very positive about that. And also, we are progressing in a good project. So we will see additions of capacity installing solar and also in wind in months to come.

Antonio and myself were out actually visiting those sites over the last couple of weeks. I can tell you, there is a lot of work going on. There are a lot of people. There are a lot of panels. So we're excited about the progress we're making.

Your next question comes from Insoo Kim with Goldman Sachs.

Both of my questions are actually related to offshore wind. The first one, for Vineyard Wind 1, I might be a little bit linked to this, at least looking at this back book and maybe the last one in September. It seems like the total financing that you achieved -- that you got was around $4 billion or $3.9 billion. In my head, I thought the original range was around 3% to 3.5% earlier this year. Is that reflecting on increasing the overall project costs? And if so, what's driving from that increase?

Sure. Let me pass that over to Doug.

Yes. So thank you. We are looking at roughly $3.9 billion in total costs for the project. And we've done the construction loan financing, and that's $2.3 billion. From an additional financing standpoint, we do expect to enter into tax equity financing as we get closer to mechanical completion for the project, and then the remainder would be sponsors' equity being infused into the project. From an overall cost standpoint, the $3.5 billion that you quoted earlier, I think, is a good number in terms of the pure construction costs, but then there's also contingency and financing costs, transaction costs, et cetera, that add to that, and that's how we get up to the $3.9 billion.

Okay. And just a follow-up to that, if you saw those contingencies to end up playing out, is there any flexibility in your secured PPAs? Or is that largely set from the escalator perspective?

Yes. The PPAs are set.

Okay. Got it. Just my second question is on the Jones Act compliance vessels. I know -- I think you had mentioned in the past again that for Vineyard Wind 1 that those ships are 100% secured. Just wondering for your other projects, what the status of that is? And I'm curious on how those contracts are structured? And how much flexibility or control you have on the timing and usage of those -- use of those shifts? And then just related to that, are they large enough and have the ability to carry the larger GE turbines, I believe, the 14 megawatt lines.

Yes. Let me start on that, and I'll ask Bill to provide some additional color. I mean, as far as for Park City Wind, we have not entered into the contracts yet for the equipment or the ships and everything. I think that one of the things that we're looking at is with the recent bids that we put in place for Massachusetts 3, there could be the opportunities to have synergies during the construction as well as the procurement phases. So we're looking at that. And as a result, we haven't made the final determination of who's getting the business, what it's going to cost.

The ships, as you mentioned, in the case of Vineyard Wind 1, are being supplied by the contractors themselves. And we anticipate that, that's probably going to be the same case when it comes to Park City and perhaps commonwealth wind as well. But look, I think everyone's excited about the large size or the larger turbines that are being produced out there. They recognize the shipbuilders that they have to -- that there's a market that they have to adjust to. So a lot of those discussions are underway. But Bill, I don't know if you want to provide any additional color there.

Just briefly, I think in addition, there's an enormous amount of activity right now. Obviously, you're aware that Dominion is building a shift down in kind of Texas right now. But there's an enormous amount of planning underway for U.S. built vessels, including the CTVs known as the crude transfer vessels, the SOVs, which is the service operating vessels. So lots of activity going on right now, a lot of plays coming into the market. And so lots of developments over the next couple of years expected on a good front for Jones Act compliance.

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland with JPMorgan.

I wanted to circle back to some of the earlier commentary on the onshore pipeline, really just the pace of your onshore renewables origination this year and timing considerations around the 2.5 gigawatts of near-term opportunities. You spoke earlier about kind of managing on a portfolio basis. Are you already managing a little of that around some of these challenges, the broader industry has seen? Just curious about the pace of activity versus your expectations.

Sure. Let me start, and I'll ask Jose Antonio to jump in. Look, I think that we've got a strong existing pipeline. We've got projects underway. We're seeing some of the same things that others are in the industry as far as labor tightness when it comes to contractors. In the case of the solar projects that Jose Antonio talked about, we've got what we need here in '21, and we've contracted through our framework agreements through '22. But there are some risks out there, but I think we're managing them well. And as I said, when we look at each individual project, we're focused on bringing it in on-time and on budget and focus on those things that we can control and those things that we don't have as much control, how can we influence? Are there things that we can leverage off of the relationships that we have through Iberdrola to try to get panels faster if they're not coming in, things like that. But Jose Antonio, you see if you want to add any color to that?

Yes. Thank you, Richard, for the question. Well, first of all, I have to say that the market momentum is, I think, it's right. Yes. We are in a high demand situation. And that is, of course, helping to all the employers to see traction in the business. And we are not an exemption. We are very active in negotiating these 2 contracting a lot deal listed to some of them or leaving the capital negotiation in some others. Of course, we -- the whole industry are watching closely what is going to happen with the anticircumvention case and that we can have an impact on the negotiations across the industry. But what we will see after November 27, that is the situation or we will adjust it.

Yes. And the other thing I'd say, Richard, is, look, we're sensitive to how some of the sell-side community looks at each of the projects. And if there's a 1-week delay or 1-month delay. But I got to tell you, we're in this for the long run. And whether there's a shifting of some projects by a month or so or over a calendar end, year-end, yes, would we like to bring everything in exactly the way that we projected it? Absolutely. But I think that as long as we're continuing to focus on those things that we can control, and we're focused on continuous improvement to get our cost control to bring these things in on time. We're going to be successful here.

Understood. I appreciate the color. And maybe just separately on the wind resourcing on the quarter, maybe just the wind resource broadly. In terms of your plan, do you typically just bake in the long-term average. And so as the averages come down, the delta has narrowed between recent production, and what's baked into plan? Do you risk adjust that average at all in light of some of the recent performance?

Historically, what we've done is looked at a long-term average. And obviously, as a good year or a bad year, it gets taken off of that, it's reflected in the new base that we're considering. But we're also looking at shorter trends and thinking about that, how that may impact our numbers on the positive or on the negative side. But we think that looking at the long-term trends is probably still the smart way to do it. But I think the key for us is making sure that our energic availability continues to improve. That's something that, candidly, several years ago is not something we could really boast about. But as Doug mentioned in his comments, we're now above 97%. So that means our machines are ready so that when the wind blows, and it is going to blow, we'll be able to deliver the results that we expect, either consistent with historical averages or even better.

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

So if you don't mind, first off, on your origination.

Hi, Julien, you are cutting in and out. Julien, we can't hear you.

Operator, let's do this. Let's go to the next caller, and then we can bring Julien back.

Your next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski with Seaport Research Partners.

Hopefully, you can hear me.

We can.

That's great. Okay. I always ask about NECEC and the lots and lots of activity, both from a regulatory perspective and construction perspective. So please give us an update on what's happening at FERC and also legal challenges to that 1.5-mile corridor.

Sure. Let me do this. First of all, as I said in my opening comments, things are going really well from a construction standpoint. On those areas where we can construct, the crews have been doing a great job. As I said, about 75% of the transmission areas have been cleared. We've got over 100 polls now installed. We've got the equipment basically on-site to be able to continue to go forward. But we do have that 1-mile piece of the line where, again, we already have transmission line there. And I think that we're confident that, that's going to be addressed in a satisfactory manner. But Bob, let me hand it over to you, and you can provide a little bit more color on what's going on with FERC and some of the other activities.

Sure. Thanks, Dennis. And you're absolutely right on the lease. The issue is whether or not putting this transmission line for 1-mile on this lease represents a substantial alteration in the use of the lands. And as Dennis said, there is already an existing CMP transmission line on that lot. So we don't see that, that represents, and quite frankly, the PPL doesn't see it either that it represents a substantial alteration. On FERC, we were pleased that they came out and asked a series of questions of intervenors in the case with respect to how to think about this breaker at Seabrook and whether or not it's generation or whether it's transmission, we think that's helpful in framing the issue and ultimately getting to a satisfactory resolution for us.

So we're hoping that, that gets done on an excited basis. Having said that, we also have ongoing discussions with the New York ISO -- I'm sorry, the New England ISO to determine whether there are alternatives to see the Seabrook break a replacement to allow the project to move forward. So I think we have options there. But again, we're optimistic in our really -- we're positive in terms of the types of questions that FERC asked in that proceeding, that we'll get a resolution here in the near term.

Hi, Angie, the other thing that I'd add to this, and we've talked about this before, there probably isn't one energy infrastructure project, including transmission, that isn't challenged in different ways. And I think that given the ambitious goals that we have as a country to increase the amount of renewables in this country. We're going to need to have more transmission build. And the challenge is that there are certain parties that may not want that because it impacts their livelihood. And as I like to say, in the clean energy transition, there are winners and losers.

In this case, the winners from this project are going to be the people of Maine, the environment, the local economies, climate change in total. But the losers in this are going to be those that basically are providing the fossil fuel generation. And so we shouldn't expect that these types of projects aren't going to be challenged, they are. But I think in this case, there has been so much work done within the state and even within that -- the review that took place on that 1-mile lease. We feel confident that this thing is going to be addressed in a satisfactory manner.

Yes. And as Dennis said Angie, and we continue to see growing support and recognition around the importance of the project. Not just for New England and transitioning to clean energy, but for the country, because this is really a benchmark project for what's needed to transition our economy to clean energy. So as Dennis mentioned, we've had support now from the 3 largest papers, they are abets in the State of Maine. We have labor unions. We have the current governor, the former governor, he recently had -- if you saw, there was an up-ed in the Washington post by William Riley, who's the former EPA administrator. Speaking just to the fact that this project is really key and projects like this are key to transformation of our energy sector. So we feel good about that growing support and continue to push forward and make sure people understand not only the benefits of the project. But as Dennis mentioned, who's really behind the opposition, and what's the motive there.

Angie, we probably gave you more color than you wanted?

Yes. Oh, yes. I mean, yes, just one follow-up, and that's more for Doug. So how much money has been spent thus far of this $1 billion project? And then just the earnings recognition during construction, ACVC and how that changes once the COD of the project is reached?

Angie, yes. So through September 30, we've spent a little over $400 million on the NECEC project. In 2021 from an AFUDC standpoint, when we gave our guidance for 2021, it was in the range of $20 million to $25 million. In terms of the earnings profile for the project, as we continue to construct and the construction work in progress balance grows, the level of AFUDC income will grow as well, up to the date where we put the project in service. And then as you know, this is a contracted project, and we've essentially levelized the price for the transmission service agreement and the associated revenue requirement, such that you see a different earnings profile for this project than you would a traditional FERC rate based type project. So you do see a dip once the project goes in service. There are price escalators in the transmission service agreements that are annual adders. So that's the general shape of the earnings profile for this.

Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

I saw it's working this time. Second time it's always correct. But on origination, would love to hear what kind of expectation do you have as you think about like an annualized pace of renewable build, especially on solar, considering the commodity deck and the backdrop we're looking at today, but also considering sort of the modest adds of very late in the backlog?

It's hard to be specific on that, Julien, because it's really driven by the customers. I mean we have some expectations, and we've included in the plan that we articulated in November that we expect that overall from a portfolio standpoint to grow the roughly 13.2 gigawatts in total capacity by 2025. And I'd say that a good part of our overall growth going forward onshore is in solar because we're seeing that more and more customers are looking for that. One of the things that we have in the pipeline is making sure that we've got the right positioning and transmission hookups to be able to give the customers what they want. Jose Antonio, I don't know if you want to provide any more color, just generally how you see that.

Yes. Thank you. Yes. I mean yes, reprimands, it's true that our 16 fleet is much more focused on wind, and it was a strategic decision to shift to solar. And our pipeline is built now with a majority of short product. So in the future, we will see solar projects being built by us and compensating -- diversifying our current installed retain. About numbers, specifically being specific to our numbers. But again, I want to repeat that we are going to see something that is an important milestone in the next months to come that are already 2 big projects. When I say 2 big projects, it points around 200 megawatts that are in an advanced stage of construction in this productivity.

One thing I can say, Julien, is we want to go faster. And part of that is dependent upon customers. As we talked about with what's going on in the market with PPA prices, with concerns about inflation and other commodity costs. Customers are also taking a little bit more time to determine what they want because they're seeing the impact of PPA prices. Having said that, we think we've got a really rich pipeline of opportunities. As we said, we're in advanced discussions, bilateral discussions with many on being able to sign many of these deals going forward. So again, I think we're headed in the right direction. I'm less concerned about individual projects on 1 month or 2 months. Do we sign the PPA in the first quarter versus the second quarter? Because I think that the trajectory that we're on is the right one, given the dynamics of the market.

Got it. And just a quick nuance, if you will. I know you're obviously deviating a little bit from your -- on your capacity factor expectations. Any expectation to update the long-term capacity factors that you've talked about in the past versus historical levels?

Yes, I'm not sure that I'd say that we deviated. What I'd say is that as far as we look at the portfolio and what we expect going forward, we're in the midst of completing our 2022 and long-term plan for the next 5 years here in the next couple of months. So we'll elaborate a little bit more on what the assumptions are behind our projections at the -- on our fourth quarter call. But I think that directionally, again, we're actually really pleased with what's going on with our fleet. As Doug mentioned, our energetic availability is above 97%. We couldn't have said that a couple of years ago. And so things are moving in the right direction.

Yes, I'd just add, Dennis, to your point, that we're very well poised that when the wind does -- wind resource does recover, we'll be generating very positive results.

And just a quick nuance on the NECEC arrangements, the sale arrangement. Is that a change here in the final approval process, that wouldn't impact your decision to close, right, on that deal on the PNM acquisition?

I'm sorry, you broke up there on.

On Entech here. Just, if they changed some of the arrangements around the sale. That doesn't impact your decision to close on PNM, right?

You're talking about fourth quarters?

Yes. I know there could be some nuances that changed there. I'm just curious, none of that matters the PNM close.

Correct. It's a totally separate proceeding from the merger proceeds.

Yes, I can clarify that.

Yes. I think what's key there, Julien, is that, that transaction was entered into by PNM and the regulators before the announcement of our merger deal. Getting out of that ownership is something PNM has been pushing for. It's consistent with where they want to go from an ESG+F standpoint. It's consistent with what we want to do in order to make our overall portfolio cleaner so. But it's also important to remember, they own only 13%, and they don't manage 4 corners. And I think that there is sometimes some information out there that sounds like they own the whole thing and they can make the decision. They're basically a minority owner. And basically, what they're doing is getting rid of their ownership.

And at this time, I will turn the conference to Dennis Arriola for any closing remarks.

Well, thank you, and we appreciate everybody joining us today. Look, I'm really proud to say we're continuing on the momentum we started last November, and we're working hard and smart to make every day better for our customers and the communities we serve. And you've heard me say this before, 1, 2 or even 3 quarters don't make a trend, but you can't start a trend without a solid year behind you. And I'm really proud, not only what our team has accomplished in the last 12 months, but more so of how we're doing it. We're continuing to build a company that's focused on accountability, execution, performance and results. We're building on a strong culture that values diversity and inclusion and that recognizes that we've got to invest in our people as well as in technology and innovation in order to stay ahead of the game.

Our customers remain at the forefront of everything we do, and we must be a part of the energy transition solution for them. So I know that we still have a lot of work ahead, but I got to tell you, I am excited and confident about Avangrid's future. Now we look forward to meeting with many of you in person at EEI. If I ask you to bring your mask down so I can see your handsome and pretty faces. Please do that, but then put your mask back on. We look forward to chatting with you more about our business. And if you have any other questions, please follow-up with Patricia or Michelle. Stay safe and have a great day.

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