Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Assured Guaranty Limited second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Ezra, and I will be the operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 Assured Guaranty Limited 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫埃茲拉，今天電話會議的接線生由我來主持。（操作員指示）

Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Robert Tucker, Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Please go ahead.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給我們的主持人、投資者關係和企業傳播部高級董事總經理 Robert Tucker。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining Assured Guaranty for our second quarter 2025 financial results conference call. Today's presentation is made pursuant to the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家參加 Assured Guaranty 2025 年第二季財務業績電話會議。今天的陳述是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款進行的。

The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about our new business and credit outlooks, market conditions, credit spreads, financial ratings, loss reserves, financial results or other items that may affect our future results.

本簡報可能包含有關我們的新業務和信用前景、市場狀況、信用利差、財務評級、損失準備金、財務結果或其他可能影響我們未來業績的項目的前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to change due to new information or future events, Therefore, you should not place undue reliance on them as we do not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise them, except as required by law.

這些聲明可能會因新資訊或未來事件而發生變化，因此，您不應過分依賴它們，因為我們不承擔公開更新或修改它們的任何義務，除非法律要求。

If you're listening to a replay of this call or if you're reading the transcript of the call, please note that our statements made today may have been updated since this call. Please refer to the Investor Information section of our website for our most recent presentations and SEC filings, both current financial filings and for the risk factors.

如果您正在收聽本次通話的重播或閱讀通話記錄，請注意，我們今天的聲明可能已在本次通話後更新。請參閱我們網站的投資者資訊部分，以了解我們最新的簡報和 SEC 文件、當前財務文件和風險因素。

This presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. We present the GAAP financial measures most directly comparable to the non-GAAP financial measures referenced in this presentation, along with a reconciliation between such GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures and our current financial supplement and equity investor presentation, which are on our website at assuredguaranty.com.

本簡報也包含對非公認會計準則財務指標的引用。我們提供的 GAAP 財務指標與本簡報中引用的非 GAAP 財務指標最為直接可比，同時還提供此類 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標與我們目前財務補充和股權投資者簡報之間的對賬，這些對帳可在我們的網站 guaranteedguaranty.com 上找到。

Turning to the presentation. Our speakers today are Dominic Frederico, President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Limited; Rob Bailenson, our Chief Operating Officer; and Ben Rosenblum, our Chief Financial Officer. After their remarks, we will open the call to your questions. As the webcast is not enabled for Q&A, please dial into the call if you'd like to ask a question. I will now turn the call over to Dominic.

轉向演示。今天的演講者是 Assured Guaranty Limited 總裁兼執行長 Dominic Frederico、營運長 Rob Bailenson 和財務長 Ben Rosenblum。在他們發言之後，我們將開始回答大家的提問。由於網路廣播不提供問答功能，如果您想提問，請撥打電話。現在我將把電話轉給多明尼克。

Thank you, Robert, and welcome to everyone joining today's call. We continue to build value for Assured Guaranty's shareholders and policyholders during the second quarter and first six months of 2025. Adjusted book value per share of $176.95 and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share of $120.11, both reached record highs at the end of the second quarter.

謝謝你，羅伯特，歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議。我們將在 2025 年第二季和上半年繼續為 Assured Guaranty 的股東和保單持有人創造價值。調整後每股帳面價值為 176.95 美元，調整後每股經營股東權益為 120.11 美元，均在第二季末創下歷史新高。

Adjusted operating income per share was $4.21 and $1.01 for the first half and second quarter, respectively. Ben will provide more details later about our financial results US municipal issuance remained strong in the first half of 2025.

上半年和第二季調整後每股營業收入分別為 4.21 美元和 1.01 美元。Ben 稍後將提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細信息，美國市政債券發行在 2025 年上半年保持強勁。

Through June 30, the par amount of US municipal issuance was 17% ahead of last year's record pace. We ensured 64% of the insured par sold in the primary market during the first half of 2025. This indicates that the market recognizes the strength of our guarantee and value proposition.

截至 6 月 30 日，美國市政債券發行量比去年創紀錄的速度高出 17%。我們確保了 2025 年上半年在一級市場售出的 64% 的保險票面價值。這顯示市場認可我們的保證和價值主張的實力。

One of our strategic priorities in 2025 was to increase our production and ensuring US municipal bonds in the secondary market. We wrote nearly $900 million of secondary market policies in the first half, including over $500 million in the second quarter. Our first half secondary par was 150% of the total amount of secondary par we insured in all of 2024.

我們 2025 年的戰略重點之一是增加產量並確保美國市政債券在二級市場上流通。我們在上半年簽訂了近 9 億美元的二級市場保單，其中第二季的保單超過 5 億美元。我們的上半年次級保險份額佔 2024 年全年次級保險份額總金額的 150%。

And as I have mentioned in the past, we received significantly higher premiums on our secondary market policies. Overall, our US public finance originations in the first two quarters where of unusually high credit quality and produced $74 million of PVP. Rob will provide more details on our high-quality business mix in a few minutes. With the addition of non-US public finance and global structured finance, six-month PVP totaled $103 million.

正如我過去提到的那樣，我們在二級市場保單上獲得的保費明顯更高。總體而言，我們前兩個季度的美國公共財政來源具有異常高的信用質量，並產生了 7,400 萬美元的 PVP。幾分鐘後，Rob 將提供有關我們高品質業務組合的更多詳細資訊。加上非美國公共融資和全球結構性融資，六個月的 PVP 總額達到 1.03 億美元。

In capital management, we remain committed to our share repurchase program with a target of this year of $500 million. So far this year, as of August 6, 2025, the company had repurchased $296 million of common shares, representing 6.8% of the shares that were outstanding on December 31, 2024.

在資本管理方面，我們仍然致力於股票回購計劃，今年的目標是 5 億美元。今年迄今，截至 2025 年 8 月 6 日，該公司已回購價值 2.96 億美元的普通股，佔 2024 年 12 月 31 日流通股的 6.8%。

And in August, our Board authorized the repurchasing of additional $300 million of its common shares. We are also pleased to announce that in July, a $250 million stock redemption or a special dividend, but our US insurance subsidiary was approved by our Maryland regulator.

8 月份，我們的董事會批准回購價值 3 億美元的額外普通股。我們也很高興地宣布，7 月份，2.5 億美元的股票贖回或特別股息，但我們的美國保險子公司已獲得馬裡蘭州監管機構的批准。

Over the years, we have repeatedly proven the strength and resilience of our business model. Reflecting this on June 30, S&P Global Ratings affirmed Assured Guaranty's AA financial strength rating with a stable outlook citing our very strong competitive position, excellent capital and earnings, well-diversified global underwriting strategy and exceptional liquidity.

多年來，我們已多次證明了我們商業模式的實力和韌性。6 月 30 日，標準普爾全球評級確認 Assured Guaranty 的 AA 財務實力評級，前景穩定，理由是我們的競爭地位非常強，資本和收益優秀，全球承保策略多元化，流動性出色。

Additionally, last week, KBRA affirmed Assured Guaranty's AA+ financial strength rating with a stable outlook, setting substantial claims paying resources, strong risk management, leadership position in the financial guaranty market, high-quality insured portfolio and conservative investment approach, among other factors.

此外，KBRA 上週確認了 Assured Guaranty 的 AA+ 財務實力評級，展望穩定，其中包括大量的索賠支付資源、強大的風險管理、在金融擔保市場的領導地位、高品質的保險組合和保守的投資方式等。

We believe we are now on a growth trajectory in both US and non-US markets. In 2022, after a long period of reducing our insurance exposure, the amount of our new business each year began to exceed what was amortizing in our insurance portfolio. That began the current trend of increasing the size of the insured portfolio.

我們相信，我們目前在美國和非美國市場都處於成長軌道。2022 年，在長期減少保險風險敞口之後，我們每年的新業務金額開始超過保險組合中的攤銷金額。這引發了當前增加保險組合規模的趨勢。

We intend to continue our leadership position in the US municipal bond insurance while further expanding and diversifying our global infrastructure and structured finance reach. I will now turn the call over to Rob to discuss in detail our production results.

我們打算繼續保持在美國市政債券保險領域的領導地位，同時進一步擴大和多樣化我們的全球基礎設施和結構性融資範圍。現在我將把電話轉給 Rob，詳細討論我們的生產結果。

Thank you, Dominic. Assured Guaranty led the municipal bond insurance industry in par insured during the first half of 2025, capturing 64% of the insured par sold. We insured $14.1 billion of new issue par sold, 30% more than during the same period last year.

謝謝你，多米尼克。2025 年上半年，Assured Guaranty 在市政債券保險行業中處於領先地位，佔據了所售保險面額的 64%。我們為售出的 141 億美元新發行債券提供保險，比去年同期成長 30%。

As Dominic discussed, in the secondary market, we insured an additional $900 million of par at much higher premium rates. In aggregate, during the first half of 2025 our primary and secondary insured municipal par totaled approximately $15 billion.

正如多明尼克所討論的，在二級市場，我們以高得多的保費率額外承保了 9 億美元的票面價值。整體而言，2025 年上半年我們的主要和次要市政債券總額約為 150 億美元。

We also significantly increased the number of primary market transactions we executed granting 474 new issues during the first half, 44% more than in the period last year. For the second quarter of 2025, our new issue insured par sold of $9.5 billion was up 32% year-over-year, while the total insured portion of the market was up by 21%.

我們也大幅增加了一級市場交易數量，上半年共發行 474 隻新債，比去年同期成長 44%。2025 年第二季度，我們銷售的新發行保險票面價值為 95 億美元，年增 32%，而市場總保險份額增加了 21%。

Our deal count for the quarter was up 41%. First half results reflected an unusual operating environment, the ratings of new issues in the first half of this year were more weighted toward higher quality and therefore, lower average premium rates than has typically been the case. These higher-quality credits also tend to moderate our overall risk profile and result in lower rating agency capital charges.

本季我們的交易數量增加了 41%。上半年業績反映了不同尋常的經營環境，今年上半年新發行債券的評級更加註重質量，因此平均保費率低於通常情況。這些更高品質的信貸也往往會緩和我們的整體風險狀況，並降低評級機構的資本費用。

Our guarantee adds value to the high-quality bonds because it can further enhance credit quality, reduce borrowing costs, mitigate the impact of downgrade and headline risk, improve market liquidity and potentially stabilize market value.

我們的擔保為優質債券增加了價值，因為它可以進一步提高信用質量，降低借貸成本，減輕降級和整體風險的影響，提高市場流動性並可能穩定市場價值。

During the first half of 2025, we issued over 100 policies totaling $5 billion of AA par, some of which were in the secondary market. These are issues with underlying ratings in the AA category by S&P or Moody's. For municipal transactions we closed in the first half of 2025, such AA credits represented 32% of our insured par. This represents a 50% increase over the percentage of AA business reinsured in each of the previous three years.

2025 年上半年，我們發行了 100 多份保單，總額達 50 億美元的 AA 面額，其中一些是在二級市場發行的。這些問題被標準普爾或穆迪評為 AA 級。對於我們在 2025 年上半年完成的市政交易，此類 AA 信用占我們承保標準的 32%。這意味著，與前三年相比，AA 業務的再保險比例每年都增加了 50%。

During the second quarter, we issued 54 primary and secondary market policies totaling $3.3 billion of AA credits. The composition of our business mix in the second quarter of 2025 was more heavily weighted toward AA credits than last year's second quarter, where we also had two large high premium transactions that significantly boosted that quarter's PVP.

第二季度，我們發行了 54 份一級和二級市場保單，總額為 33 億美元 AA 信用額度。與去年第二季相比，我們 2025 年第二季的業務結構更加偏向 AA 信用，去年第二季我們也進行了兩筆大型高保費交易，顯著提升了該季度的 PVP。

This year, we have also ensured a number of transactions with in short par amounts of $100 million or more. Institutional investors are large buyers of these transactions, and they continue to value our guarantee on them. In the first half of 2025, we guaranteed par of at least $100 million on 27 transactions for a total of $6.7 billion of insured par sold.

今年我們也擔保了多筆票面金額在1億美元及以上的短期交易。機構投資者是這些交易的大買家，他們繼續重視我們對這些交易的擔保。2025 年上半年，我們在 27 筆交易中保證了至少 1 億美元的票面價值，總計售出了 67 億美元的保險票面價值。

Of that, during the second quarter, we guaranteed 19 transactions totaling $5.2 billion of insured par sold. The insured par amounts of some of these larger transactions included $1 billion for the Dormitory Authority of the State of New York, $844 million in aggregate for two issues for the Downtown Revitalization Public Infrastructure District in Utah, $411 million for Allegheny County Airport in Pennsylvania, and $361 million for Meritus Health issued by the Maryland Health and Higher Education Facilities Authority.

其中，第二季度，我們擔保了 19 筆交易，總計售出 52 億美元的保險票面價值。其中一些較大交易的保險票面金額包括：紐約州宿舍管理局發行的 10 億美元債券、猶他州市中心振興公共基礎設施區兩期債券（總額 8.44 億美元）、賓州阿勒格尼縣機場發行的 4.11 億美元債券，以及馬裡蘭州衛生和高等教育設施管理局發行的 3.61 億美元 Meritus Health 債券。

In our other markets, non-US public finance contributed $14 million in PVP for the first half of 2025. Second quarter 2025 transactions included one primary and several secondary infrastructure transactions in the UK. Additionally, in Europe, we issued a guarantee for Spain's A127 Aragon Regional Roadway, our first post financial crisis P3 transaction in Spain and a guarantee for XP fiber, the largest independent fiber-to-home operator in France, which is our first primary transaction in French infrastructure since we opened our Paris office. The nature of this business which includes large transactions with significant lead times result in less predictable quarterly production results.

在我們的其他市場中，非美國公共財政在 2025 年上半年為 PVP 貢獻了 1,400 萬美元。2025 年第二季的交易包括英國的一項主要基礎設施交易和幾項次要基礎設施交易。此外，在歐洲，我們為西班牙的A127阿拉貢區域公路提供了擔保，這是我們在西班牙金融危機後的第一筆P3交易，我們還為法國最大的獨立光纖到戶運營商XP光纖提供了擔保，這是我們自巴黎辦事處開設以來在法國基礎設施領域的第一筆主要交易。該業務的性質包括大宗交易和較長的交貨時間，這導致季度生產結果不太可預測。

Structured Finance contributed $15 million in PVP for the first half of 2025. Within Structured Finance, results were primarily attributable to subscription finance and gold corporate transactions. Subscription finance transactions are typically short duration, so their PVP earns significantly faster than the PVP generated by our other business segments.

結構性融資為 2025 年上半年的 PVP 貢獻了 1,500 萬美元。在結構性融資中，業績主要歸功於認購融資和黃金公司交易。認購融資交易通常持續時間較短，因此其 PVP 收益明顯快於我們其他業務部門產生的 PVP。

Further, based on our experience with these deals there is an expectation that many of these transactions will extend or renew at maturity, generating additional PVP that was not recognized at the time of closing. Since 2021, we have seen growth in this product line year-over-year, and we expect this growth to continue in the coming years.

此外，根據我們對這些交易的經驗，預計許多此類交易將在到期時延長或續約，從而產生在交易結束時未確認的額外 PVP。自 2021 年以來，我們看到該產品線逐年成長，我們預計這種成長將在未來幾年繼續下去。

Looking at the third quarter, we are off to a good start, ensuring approximately $2.8 billion in par close in the month of July. This includes $600 million of par for the new Terminal 1 and New York's JFK Airport with over $10 million in claims paying resources. We are well equipped to support projects of this scale. We are also in the process of closing another substantial transaction in Australia, as a follow-up to the transaction we insured in 2024.

縱觀第三季度，我們開局良好，確保 7 月份票面價值達到約 28 億美元。其中包括為新建 1 號航站樓和紐約甘迺迪機場提供的 6 億美元權益以及超過 1000 萬美元的理賠資金。我們有能力支持這種規模的項目。作為 2024 年核保交易的後續行動，我們也正在澳洲完成另一項重大交易。

In closing, we believe we are well positioned for the second half of the year. As Dominic indicated earlier, the US municipal market is seeing high issuance with some forecasts projecting that municipal issuance in 2025 to surpass 2024's record of $500 billion. Total market volume had already reached $278 billion by June 30. We see many attractive opportunities in global infrastructure and structured finance.

最後，我們相信我們已經為下半年做好了準備。正如 Dominic 先前指出的，美國市政債券市場發行量很高，一些預測顯示，2025 年的市政債券發行量將超過 2024 年創下的 5000 億美元的紀錄。截至 6 月 30 日，市場總交易量已達 2,780 億美元。我們在全球基礎設施和結構性融資中看到許多有吸引力的機會。

We have confidence in our strategy and a commitment to succeed. I will now turn the call over to Ben to discuss our financial results further

我們對我們的策略充滿信心，並致力於取得成功。現在我將把電話轉給 Ben，進一步討論我們的財務業績

Thank you, Dominic and Rob, and good morning. Second quarter 2025 adjusted operating income was $50 million or $1.01 per share, which compares with adjusted operating income of $80 million or $1.44 per share in the second quarter of 2024.

謝謝多明尼克和羅布，早安。2025 年第二季調整後營業收入為 5,000 萬美元，即每股 1.01 美元，而 2024 年第二季調整後營業收入為 8,000 萬美元，即每股 1.44 美元。

The key revenue drivers, net earned premiums and net investment income on the available for sale portfolio were both up in the second quarter of 2025, compared with the second quarter of 2024, and which reflects the earnings power of each of these predictable streams of core earnings. Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues increased by $5 million, primarily due to earnings on new large transactions and supplemental premiums written in 2024.

2025 年第二季度，主要收入驅動因素——淨賺保費和可供出售投資組合的淨投資收益——均較 2024 年第二季度有所上升，這反映了這些可預測的核心收益流的盈利能力。淨賺保費和信用衍生性商品收入增加了 500 萬美元，主要原因是 2024 年新的大額交易收益和補充保費。

Our deferred premium revenue, which is our future store earnings, was $3.9 billion. Net investment income on the available-for-sale fixed maturity and short-term investment portfolio increased $8 million in the second quarter of 2025. There were a few notable changes in the composition of the available-for-sale investment portfolio compared with the second quarter of 2024 that contributed to the increase in net investment income.

我們的遞延保費收入（即我們未來的門市收益）為 39 億美元。2025 年第二季度，可供出售固定期限和短期投資組合的淨投資收益增加了 800 萬美元。與 2024 年第二季相比，可供出售投資組合的組成發生了一些顯著變化，導致淨投資收益增加。

First, certain CLO equity tranche investments were reclassified to the available-for-sale fixed maturity portfolio from a CLO fund whose change in net asset value or NAV, was previously reported in adjusted operating income. Net investment income in the second quarter of 2025 included $9 million related to the CLO equity tranches, whereas in the prior year, the change in the NAV of the CLO fund was $3 million.

首先，某些 CLO 股票檔投資從 CLO 基金重新分類為可供出售的固定期限投資組合，該基金的淨資產價值或 NAV 變化之前已在調整後的營業收入中報告。2025 年第二季的淨投資收入包括與 CLO 股票部分相關的 900 萬美元，而前一年，CLO 基金的資產淨值變動為 300 萬美元。

And second, net investment income on the externally managed portfolio increased by $6 million as our managers reinvested into higher-yielding assets. However, the average balance of our short-term investment portfolio declined as did the short-term interest rates resulting in an offsetting decrease of $10 million in net investment income.

其次，由於我們的管理人員將資金再投資於收益更高的資產，外部管理投資組合的淨投資收益增加了 600 萬美元。然而，我們的短期投資組合的平均餘額下降，短期利率也下降，導致淨投資收入減少 1,000 萬美元。

In addition to the CLO equity tranches in the available for sale portfolio, we also have other alternative investments whose changes in NAV are reported in adjusted operating income. Earnings from this portfolio tend to be more volatile than the fixed maturity portfolio.

除了可供出售投資組合中的 CLO 股票部分外，我們還有其他另類投資，其資產淨值變動在調整後的營業收入中報告。此投資組合的收益往往比固定期限投資組合的收益更加不穩定。

In the second quarter of 2025, the change in NAV from these alternative investments was $5 million compared with $15 million in the second quarter of 2024. On an inception-to-date basis, as of June 30, 2025, our aggregate alternative investments has generated an annualized internal rig return of 13%, substantially greater than the returns on the fixed maturity portfolio.

2025 年第二季度，這些另類投資的資產淨值變動為 500 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季為 1,500 萬美元。自成立至今，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，我們的另類投資總額已產生 13% 的年化內部鑽機報酬率，遠高於固定期限投資組合的報酬率。

Changes in the fair value of trading securities which mainly consists of Puerto Rico contingent value instruments also tends to be volatile. In the second quarter of 2025, the change in fair value of trading securities was a $2 million gain compared with a $17 million gain in the second quarter of 2024.

主要由波多黎各或有價值工具組成的交易證券的公允價值變化也往往波動較大。2025 年第二季度，交易證券的公允價值變動收益為 200 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季的收益為 1,700 萬美元。

The changes in fair value of alternative investments and trading securities are two of the three primary drivers of the decrease in adjusted operating income in second quarter 2025 compared with second quarter 2024.

另類投資和交易證券的公允價值變動是 2025 年第二季調整後營業收入與 2024 年第二季相比下降的三個主要驅動因素中的兩個。

The last notable component of the variance is an increase of $27 million in the Insurance segment loss expense. In the second quarter of 2025, loss expense was primarily attributable to additional reserves on certain UK regulated utility and US revenue exposures. Loss expense is a function of both economic loss development and the amortization of deferred premium revenue.

最後一個值得注意的差異部分是保險部門損失費用增加了 2,700 萬美元。2025 年第二季度，損失費用主要歸因於某些英國監管公用事業和美國收入風險的額外準備金。損失費用是經濟損失發展和遞延保費收入攤提的函數。

In the second quarter of 2025, economic loss development was $36 million, mainly due to certain health care UK regulated utility and municipal revenue exposures. Breaking down the main contributors of our second quarter results, the Insurance segment contributed $76 million and the Asset Management segment contributed $4 million. These segment earnings were offset in part by the corporate division's adjusted operating loss of $29 million in the second quarter of 2025, which is down from a $35 million loss in the prior year.

2025 年第二季度，經濟損失發展為 3,600 萬美元，主要由於英國某些醫療保健監管的公用事業和市政收入風險。細分我們第二季業績的主要貢獻者，保險部門貢獻了 7,600 萬美元，資產管理部門貢獻了 400 萬美元。這些部門的收益被企業部門 2025 年第二季調整後的 2,900 萬美元營業虧損部分抵消，該虧損低於前一年的 3,500 萬美元。

On the capital management front, we repurchased 1.5 million shares for $131 million at an average price of $85.03 per share, and also returned $19 million in dividends to our shareholders in the second quarter of 2025. Including our Board's most recent $300 million share repurchase authorization, our current remaining authorization is $356 million.

在資本管理方面，我們以每股 85.03 美元的平均價格回購了 150 萬股，價值 1.31 億美元，並在 2025 年第二季向股東返還了 1,900 萬美元的股息。包括我們董事會最近授權的 3 億美元股票回購金額在內，我們目前剩餘的授權金額為 3.56 億美元。

In terms of our current holding company liquidity position, we have cash and investments of $157 million, of which $60 million resides in AGL. Share repurchases, along with adjusted operating income and new business production collectively contributed to new records for adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share of over $120 and adjusted book value per share of almost $177.

就我們目前的控股公司流動性狀況而言，我們擁有 1.57 億美元的現金和投資，其中 6,000 萬美元位於 AGL。股票回購、調整後營業收入和新業務生產共同促成了調整後每股營業股東權益超過 120 美元和調整後每股帳面價值接近 177 美元的新紀錄。

While adjusted operating income varies from period to period, the consistent quarterly increases in these book value metrics reflect the value of our key strategic initiatives, which build shareholder value over the long term. Since the end of the quarter, we had two very positive developments which demonstrate the successful execution of several of our key strategic initiatives.

雖然調整後的營業收入在不同時期有所不同，但這些帳面價值指標的持續季度成長反映了我們關鍵策略舉措的價值，這些舉措將在長期內創造股東價值。自本季末以來，我們取得了兩項非常積極的進展，表明我們的幾項關鍵策略舉措已成功執行。

First, after many years of negotiation and hard work, our largest loss mitigation security with a carrying value of $408 million as of June 30, 2025, was paid down using the proceeds from the liquidation of the trust assets. This outcome showcases our multifaceted approach to loss mitigation, combining a vigorous legal defense and financial flexibility.

首先，經過多年的談判和努力，我們最大的損失緩解擔保（截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的帳面價值為 4.08 億美元）已使用信託資產清算所得償還。這一結果展示了我們減少損失的多方面方法，結合了強有力的法律辯護和財務靈活性。

We reached a positive resolution after pursuing our legal rights allocating capital to repurchase most of the outstanding exposure at discount and remaining patient while the collateral value recovered. There will be little impact on the third quarter income for this final resolution.

我們在行使合法權利、分配資本以折扣價回購大部分未償還風險敞口並在抵押品價值恢復期間保持耐心之後，達成了積極的解決方案。該最終決議對第三季營收影響不大。

However, on an inception-to-date basis, we received over $100 million more in recoveries than we paid out, which resulted in a positive lifetime internal return of 2.7% for this troubled exposure. The second development, as Dominic mentioned, was that the Maryland Insurance Administration approved the redemption by the company's US insurance subsidiary, Assured Guaranty Inc of $250 million of its shares of common stock.

然而，從成立至今，我們收回的資金比支出的多出 1 億美元，這使得該問題資產的終身內部回報率達到 2.7%。第二個進展，正如多明尼克所提到的，是馬裡蘭州保險管理局批准該公司的美國保險子公司 Assured Guaranty Inc 贖回價值 2.5 億美元的普通股。

Assured Guaranty Inc. expects to redeem such shares in exchange for cash and alternative investments in the third quarter of 2025. Proceeds from the stock redemption will flow into our US holding companies and will be available for strategic initiatives, including share repurchases. I'll now turn the call over to our operator to give you the instructions for the Q&A period.

Assured Guaranty Inc. 預計將在 2025 年第三季贖回這些股份以換取現金和另類投資。股票贖回所得將流入我們的美國控股公司，並用於包括股票回購在內的策略性舉措。我現在將電話轉給我們的接線員，為您提供問答環節的指示。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Marissa Lobo, UBS.

瑞銀的瑪麗莎·洛博。

Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. First, I would just some more color on the -- can you hear me okay?

謝謝。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。首先，我想再講一些細節──你聽得到我說話嗎？

No, you got interrupted. Please repeat.

不，你被打擾了。請重複。

I was hoping for more color on how a lower interest rate environment impacts the opportunity set for AGRO, both in primary and secondary public finance?

我希望更詳細地了解低利率環境如何影響農業在初級和次級公共財政方面的機會？

The lower interest rate environment, as we said, we get paid on principal and interest, so a lower interest rate environment, but obviously, depressed premium volume in terms of what we would calculate as our rate against. So the basis of the premium calculation would go down.

正如我們所說，在較低的利率環境下，我們會獲得本金和利息的支付，因此較低的利率環境，但顯然，以我們計算的利率而言，保費量會受到抑制。因此保費計算的基礎將會下降。

It would affect our insurance portfolio, which is obviously made of mostly fixed income securities. So that would also affect book value to that -- in terms of the secondary market, I don't think you had any impact whatsoever.

這將影響我們的保險投資組合，該投資組合顯然主要由固定收益證券組成。所以這也會影響帳面價值——就二級市場而言，我認為你不會受到任何影響。

And as we said, strategically, we've looked at the secondary market as kind of the balance in today's marketplace where there are low rates and tight spreads. The secondary market gives us an opportunity to balance that out with higher rated, higher performance or higher ROE business. So as I said, it will affect the portfolio, will affect the premium calculation going forward, depending on the size of the decrease in the interest rates.

正如我們所說，從戰略上講，我們將二級市場視為當今市場中的平衡點，其中利率較低且利差較小。二級市場為我們提供了一個機會，讓我們能夠透過更高評級、更高性能或更高 ROE 的業務來平衡這一點。正如我所說，它會影響投資組合，會影響未來的保費計算，這取決於利率下降的幅度。

Yeah, but if rates -- remember also, if spreads widen out, even if rates go down, then you're still going to get -- you're going to calculate a higher premium.

是的，但是如果利率——還要記住，如果利差擴大，即使利率下降，那麼你仍然會得到——你會計算出更高的溢價。

Well, on the positive side, if rates go down, you're going to probably have more issuers in the market as well because people take advantage of the low interest rates to in effect, accomplish some borrowings that they've probably been holding off of because of the volatility in the market because of tariff, no tariff, political, no political. So we got to make sure that, that strains out as well. But if they're low enough, you'll see a lot more issuers come to market.

嗯，從積極的一面來看，如果利率下降，市場上可能也會有更多的發行人，因為人們利用低利率實際上完成了一些他們可能一直推遲的借貸，因為關稅、無關稅、政治、無政治等因素導致的市場波動。所以我們必須確保這一點，也能解決問題。但如果利率夠低，你會看到更多的發行人進入市場。

You'll also see more BBB and A-rated issuers come to market out lower with lower interest rates.

您還會看到更多 BBB 和 A 級發行人以更低的利率進入市場。

And it could affect our earned premium in a positive way because of refunding. So there is some good news and some bad news with the lower interest rate environment.

而且由於退款，它可以對我們賺取的保費產生積極的影響。因此，低利率環境下既有好消息，也有壞消息。

That's helpful. And just moving on to the loss expense and increase in big exposures. Could you speak a little bit about the increase in the big exposure to the non-US and also how you see the process time line playing out for Thames Water here?

這很有幫助。接下來討論損失費用和大額風險敞口的增加。您能否簡單談談對美國以外地區業務的大幅成長，以及您如何看待泰晤士水務公司的流程時間表？

So this is something we've discussed at length in the company and also to you over the quarter. So what we're responsible to do from the standpoint of evaluating the credits is do an independent evaluation of what we would raise the credit. And the rating is kind of severe. So if you look at a bright line, we're the top tier of the basically capital stack. The ability to get to us in terms of a loss situation is pre remote.

這是我們在本季在公司內部以及與您詳細討論過的事情。因此，從評估信用的角度來看，我們有責任對提高信用額度進行獨立評估。而且評級相當嚴格。因此，如果你看一條明線，你會發現我們基本上處於資本堆疊的頂層。就損失情況而言，聯絡我們的能力還很遙遠。

But once the underlying credit has trouble making cash flow or making operating expenses, you downgrade the stack but the stack is protected at the top very, very well. So you're looking at it the below investment-grade credit that quite honestly, if you're the top $2 billion of $7 billion, you really have no exposure. But that's not the way the rules work. When it comes to the loss reserves, you've got the same problem. Low investment grade credit is going to attract the loss reserve.

但是，一旦基礎信貸在產生現金流或營運費用方面出現問題，您就會降低該堆疊的級別，但該堆疊在頂部會受到很好的保護。因此，您看到的是低於投資等級的信用，坦白說，如果您的信用額度是 70 億美元中的前 20 億美元，那麼您實際上沒有任何風險敞口。但規則並不是這樣運作的。當談到損失準備金時，你也會遇到同樣的問題。低投資等級信貸將會產生損失準備金。

Loss reserves are calculated based on a scenario analysis and a probability weighting. The majority, and I mean the significant majority of our credits that goes into our calculation of either reserves or below investment grade do not pay losses.

損失準備金是根據情境分析和機率加權計算的。大多數，我的意思是我們計算儲備或投資等級以下的信貸中絕大多數都不會產生損失。

So it's an accounting concept. We actually try to get a statistic for you that how many lower reserves that we put up or you never paid a loss on, and it's the majority of the cases, the strong majority of the cases. Ben, do you want to add anything to that?

所以這是一個會計概念。實際上，我們試圖為您提供一個統計數據，即我們存入的較低準備金有多少，或者您從未支付過損失，而且這是大多數情況，絕大多數情況。本，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think that sums it up. I think in many cases, I think in many cases, we put up losses, and this is true certainly in the health care sector in the US where we put up many losses over the years and we downgraded our credit this quarter in Westchester Medical Center, but I can't even think of the last time we paid out a loss in the US health care sector is probably the Bayon Hospital 20-some-odd years ago.

我想這就概括了。我認為在很多情況下，我認為在很多情況下，我們都承受了損失，這在美國醫療保健領域當然是事實，多年來我們承受了很多損失，我們本季度降低了威斯特徹斯特醫療中心的信用評級，但我什至想不起我們上次在美國醫療保健領域支付損失可能是 20 多年前的拜戎醫院。

Insurance, I think.

我認為是保險。

Well, FSA did it. But at the end of the day, we do have a very strong surveillance team that works on the health care front. They're very good at their job. They get in there and work out the credit, downgraded and then we work through the problem.

嗯，FSA 做到了。但最終，我們確實擁有一支在醫療保健領域工作的非常強大的監控團隊。他們非常擅長自己的工作。他們進入那裡併計算信用額度、降級，然後我們再解決問題。

And your question was on TEM, so let's go back to that for a second. So remember, as we said, we're in the opco, not the holdco. The problem there is capital expenditures, not operating expenses or operating ability to cover best service. We're very well protected in terms of the legal structure. And as you've seen in the current environment, we put up a plan with the rest of the creditors relative to refinancing, which is the only plan available.

您的問題是關於 TEM 的，所以我們先回顧一下這個問題。所以請記住，正如我們所說的，我們是 opco，而不是 holdingco。那裡的問題在於資本支出，而不是營運支出或涵蓋最佳服務的營運能力。我們在法律結構方面受到了很好的保護。正如您在當前環境下看到的，我們與其他債權人一起提出了一項有關再融資的計劃，這是唯一可用的計劃。

We're very comfortable with our position in the plan, what it means to us as a company. So hopefully, that will continue its pace, get approved and then put into effect, we'll be able to cure the credit. The joke I make internally, and I'll put it out here over some criticism is that even in Puerto Rico's case, they paid the water bill. So I'm assuming the UK government will do the same.

我們對自己在該計劃中的地位以及它對我們公司的意義感到非常滿意。因此，希望該方案能夠繼續推進，獲得批准並付諸實施，我們將能夠解決信貸問題。我內心深處開的一個玩笑是，即使在波多黎各，他們也支付了水費，儘管遭到了一些批評，但我還是會把它說出來。因此我認為英國政府也會採取同樣的措施。

Thanks for that.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Tommy McJoynt, KBW.

湯米·麥克喬伊特，KBW。

Hey, good morning, guys. Its is a timely call following the announcement just a few days ago that five of the seven members of the Puerto Rico Oversight Board were dismissed by the President. Can you walk through your understanding of what happens from here in terms of nominations or new appointments to that Board, if they have to go through approval process? And then this, in any way, delays the overall restructuring procedures just as new members get up to speed?

嘿，大家早安。幾天前，波多黎各監督委員會七名成員中的五名被總統解僱，這項決定非常及時。如果董事會的提名或新任命需要經過審批程序，您能否介紹一下接下來會發生什麼？那麼，這會以某種方式延遲整體重整程序，因為新成員正在加快速度嗎？

Well, let's look at the facts from the rear. So number one, nothing could delay restructuring or a kind of consensual deal than the existing Board was doing in terms of their execution. Remember, we had signed three previous deals, which they renicked on every time. So it couldn't go any slower. So any change of that's got to be an improvement, Tommy. So at the end of the day, I'm optimistic that this sort of turns out to be a positive, not a negative.

好吧，讓我們從後面看看事實。因此，第一，沒有什麼能比現任董事會在執行上所做的更能推遲重組或某種協商一致的協議。請記住，我們之前已經簽署了三份協議，但每次他們都會否認。所以它不能再慢了。所以，任何改變都是一種進步，湯米。所以最終，我樂觀地認為這會產生正面的影響，而不是負面的影響。

Number two, what ultimately happens, I think is still up for discussion relative to who's got legal right to do what. Remember how the original Board was constituted. Each side got to put a couple on, the President got to put somebody on. Will they follow that path? I have no idea.

第二，最終會發生什麼，我認為關於誰有合法權利做什麼，仍有待討論。記住最初的董事會是如何組成的。雙方各派出一對夫婦，總統則派出一人。他們會走那條路嗎？我不知道。

So it's still up in the open. It's still whether they're going to contest the dismissals. But as I said, to me, it can only improve. It can't go in an adverse way. So I think there's potential.

所以它仍然處於公開狀態。問題仍然是他們是否會對解僱提出異議。但正如我所說，對我來說，它只能改善。不能往壞處發展。所以我認為這是有潛力的。

Yes, we'll stay tuned on that. How much contingent value instruments from earlier Puerto Rico restructuring, do you guys still hold? And as I understand it, those have been performing very well, and that's just reflective of sales tax receipts coming in above budget.

是的，我們會繼續關注。你們還持有多少早期波多黎各重組的或有價值工具？據我了解，這些表現都非常好，這只是反映了銷售稅收入超出了預算。

As we see that happen, can we think of PREPA's ability to repay and the ultimate recovery there as also potentially coming in better, just thinking about economic activity driving sales tax receipts and then also potentially leading to more electric utilization. Is there a correlation there that we can think of?

當我們看到這種情況發生時，我們是否可以認為 PREPA 的償還能力和最終的復甦也可能變得更好，只要考慮經濟活動推動銷售稅收入，然後也可能導致更多的電力利用。我們能想到其中存在某種關聯嗎？

Let me answer your first question. So we have about $117 million remaining from the previous contingent value securities. And as you said, they performed very well. That's why we held back unless it doesn't meet our internal return thresholds we would sell, but they do. So we hold, we expect them to continue to improve. So as the market presents opportunity, we'll execute accordingly. We don't have a liquidity situation or position to have to worry about holding the securities. So at the end of the day, it's positive for the company.

讓我來回答你的第一個問題。因此，我們從先前或有價值的證券中剩餘了約 1.17 億美元。正如你所說，他們的表現非常出色。這就是為什麼我們會抑制銷售，除非它不符合我們的內部回報門檻，但事實確實如此。因此我們認為，我們預計他們會繼續進步。因此，當市場出現機會時，我們就會採取相應的行動。我們沒有流動性狀況或頭寸，不必擔心持有證券。所以從總體上看，這對公司來說是有利的。

Number two, depending on what we ultimately resolve PREPA with, will there be contingent securities? I don't know. But like you said, is they tend to undervalue them, they're not a bad investment to take as part of a salmon because they typically outperform.

第二，根據我們最終解決 PREPA 的方式，是否會有或有擔保？我不知道。但就像你說的，他們傾向於低估它們，作為鮭魚的一部分，它們並不是一個糟糕的投資，因為它們通常表現優異。

We believe PREPA has abilities to repay its debt. And as you can see, the growth in the administrative expense claim continues to significantly increase, which represents a significant portion of the debt that was owed, which is kind of funny.

我們相信PREPA有能力償還債務。正如您所看到的，管理費用索賠的增長持續大幅增加，這代表了所欠債務的很大一部分，這有點有趣。

In this case, we thought we'd have to prove that there's money there or they have to prove to us that there isn't money there. So I think it's a very different situation than it was in the past. With the change in the Board members potentially and this administrative claim, I think things are getting very positive from the standpoint of PREPA's ability to settle our dispute and get to a consensual agreement.

在這種情況下，我們認為我們必須證明那裡有錢，或者他們必須向我們證明那裡沒有錢。所以我認為現在的情況與過去有很大不同。隨著董事會成員的潛在變化以及這項行政索賠，我認為從 PREPA 解決爭端並達成協議的能力來看，事情正在變得非常積極。

Thank you, Donald.

謝謝你，唐納德。

You're welcome, Tommy.

別客氣，湯米。

Dunn, Dowling and Partners.

鄧恩、道林和合夥人。

I saw Westchester Medical was added to your BIG list. I know it's only one notch below investment grade, but can you talk a little bit about what occurred there relative to first quarter and second quarter that brought it down to the BIG level?

我看到威斯特徹斯特醫療集團 (Westchester Medical) 已被添加到您的重要清單中。我知道它僅比投資等級低一級，但您能否稍微談談第一季和第二季發生了什麼，導致它降至 BIG 等級？

Yeah, I think we're constantly evaluating our credit. As I mentioned, we have a really good surveillance team led by Holly Horn. And she looked at it we looked at it. And we saw the liquidity was not where we like our standards.

是的，我認為我們一直在評估我們的信用。正如我所提到的，我們有一個由 Holly Horn 領導的非常優秀的監視團隊。她看著它，我們也看著它。我們發現流動性並沒有達到我們所期望的標準。

Additionally, when you look at what's coming out of Washington, there may be some headwinds from Medicaid and Medicare patients out there. And as a result, as a forward-looking basis, we decided we would downgrade it. We do not believe this is going to be a big problem. We generally, as I mentioned, work out our health care credits, but you got to take prudent measures and put up the ratings that you think makes sense at the time.

此外，當你看看華盛頓即將出台的保單時，你會發現醫療補助和醫療保險患者可能會面臨一些阻力。因此，出於前瞻性考慮，我們決定下調其評級。我們不認為這會是一個大問題。正如我所提到的，我們通常會計算出我們的醫療保健信用額度，但你必須採取謹慎的措施，並提出你認為當時合理的評級。

This is a critical facility, very important to the state, very important to the local environment. But as Ben points out, we have a process where we look at credits, we look at the future, we look at the cash flow situation, the available management team margins that are being pressurized and take the decisions we think are necessary relative to managing the credit.

這是一個關鍵設施，對國家非常重要，對當地環境也非常重要。但正如本指出的那樣，我們有一個流程，我們會審視信用、展望未來、審視現金流狀況、面臨壓力的管理團隊可用利潤率，並做出我們認為與管理信用相關的必要決策。

We generally have a very positive view on the turnaround possibilities there, and we're looking forward to working with them to turn it around.

總體而言，我們對那裡扭轉局面的可能性持非常樂觀的看法，並期待與他們合作扭轉局面。

I think as Ben talked about in our history of health care credits, they performed very, very well because they aren't operating exposure that can easily be amended versus political situations that are a little tougher to handle. This is not one of those.

我認為，正如本在我們的醫療保健信貸歷史中談到的那樣，它們表現得非常非常好，因為它們沒有可以輕易修改的營運風險，而政治局勢則更難處理。這不是其中之一。

We are recognizing the facts of what it means relative to Medicare, Medicaid, and cash flows and the demand. Remember, they're bringing on a new facility, which always has its problems in terms of operations. But just being forewarned is forearmed. That's kind of our process in surveillance.

我們認識到它對醫療保險、醫療補助、現金流和需求的意義。請記住，他們正在引進一個新設施，該設施在運作方面總是存在問題。但只要預先警告，就足以預防一切。這就是我們的監視流程。

You're welcome. Thanks. Welcome, Joe.

不客氣。謝謝。歡迎光臨，喬。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to our host, Robert Tucker for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在，我想將會議交還給主持人羅伯特·塔克 (Robert Tucker) 作閉幕發言。

Thank you, operator. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us on today's call. If you have additional questions, please feel free to give us a call. Thank you very much.

謝謝您，接線生。我要感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時致電我們。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines. Have a great day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的出席。現在您可以斷開線路了。祝你有美好的一天。