AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCP) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp third quarter 2025 shareholder call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 AGNC 投資公司 2025 年第三季股東電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Katie Turlington in Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係部門的凱蒂·特林頓女士。請便，女士。

Thank you all for joining AGNC Investment Corp's third quarter 2025 earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to review the Safe Harbor Statement. This conference call and corresponding slide presentation contains statements that, to the extent they are not recitations of historical facts, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

感謝各位參加AGNC投資公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。在開始之前，我想先回顧一下安全港聲明。本次電話會議及相應的幻燈片簡報包含一些陳述，這些陳述若非對歷史事實的複述，則構成 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》意義上的前瞻性陳述。

All such forward-looking statements are intended to be subject to the Safe Harbor protection provided by the Reform Act. Actual outcomes and results could differ materially from those forecast due to the impact of many factors beyond the control of AGNC.

所有此類前瞻性陳述均旨在受到《改革法案》提供的「安全港」條款的保護。由於 AGNC 無法控制的許多因素的影響，實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。

All forward-looking statements included in this presentation are made only as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements are included in AGNC's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies are available on the SEC's website at sec.gov. We disclaim any obligation to update our forward-looking statements unless required by law.

本簡報中包含的所有前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本簡報發布之日的信息，如有更改，恕不另行通知。AGNC 向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中列出了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異的某些因素。相關文件可於美國證券交易委員會網站sec.gov查閱。除非法律另有規定，否則我們不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。

Participants on the call include Peter Federico, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer; Bernie Bell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Sean Reid, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development.

參與電話會議的有總裁、執行長兼首席投資長彼得·費德里科；執行副總裁兼財務長伯尼·貝爾；以及執行副總裁兼策略與企業發展主管肖恩·里德。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Peter Federico.

接下來，我將把電話交給彼得·費德里科。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining our conference. In the third quarter, the Federal Reserve's pivot to a less restrictive monetary policy stance and the easing of fiscal policy concerns drove robust financial market performance and a significant improvement in investor sentiment.

早安，感謝各位參加本次會議。第三季度，聯準會轉向較為寬鬆的貨幣政策立場，以及財政政策擔憂的緩解，推動了金融市場的強勁表現，並顯著改善了投資者情緒。

Agency mortgage-backed securities were one of the best-performing fixed-income asset classes during the quarter and have now outperformed US Treasuries for five consecutive months, a sequence of outperformance that has not happened since 2013.

機構抵押貸款擔保證券是本季表現最好的固定收益資產類別之一，並且已經連續五個月跑贏美國國債，這是自 2013 年以來從未發生過的連續跑贏。

In this favorable investment environment, AGNC generated a very strong economic return of 10.6%, comprised of our attractive monthly dividend and book value appreciation. At its September meeting, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate as expected and signaled further monetary policy accommodation with the possibility of rate cuts at the October and December meetings.

在這種有利的投資環境下，AGNC 獲得了 10.6% 的強勁經濟回報，其中包括我們誘人的每月股息和帳面價值成長。聯準會在9月的會議上如預期般下調了聯邦基金利率，並暗示將進一步放鬆貨幣政策，有可能在10月和12月的會議上降息。

On the fiscal policy side, the passage of the tax bill early in the quarter and several positive tariff developments eased some of the concerns that dampened the investment outlook in the second quarter. These investor-friendly developments led to a material decline in interest rate volatility and contributed to the outperformance of agency MBS.

在財政政策方面，本季初稅收法案的通過以及幾項積極的關稅進展緩解了第二季抑制投資前景的一些擔憂。這些有利於投資者的發展導致利率波動性大幅下降，並促成了機構抵押貸款支持證券的優異表現。

As we have discussed, a number of emerging factors support our constructive outlook for agency mortgage-backed securities. The first relates to the improved spread environment for agency MBS. Over the last four years, the spread range between agency securities and benchmark rates has become increasingly well-defined, with incremental investor demand consistently emerging when spreads trade near the upper end of the range.

正如我們所討論的，許多新興因素支撐了我們對機構抵押貸款支持證券的積極展望。第一點與機構抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 的利差環境改善有關。過去四年，機構證券與基準利率之間的利差範圍變得越來越明確，當利差接近該範圍的上限時，投資者需求就會持續增加。

In addition, the administration has begun to focus on mortgage spreads as a means of improving housing affordability. In an interview in late September, the Treasury Secretary reinforced this view when he said, the really important thing is that we either maintain mortgage spreads or narrow them further to help the American people. This focus on spreads by the administration is good for agency MBS and good for our business.

此外，政府已開始關注抵押貸款利差，以此作為提高住房可負擔性的手段。9 月下旬的一次採訪中，財政部長重申了這一觀點，他說，真正重要的是，我們要么維持抵押貸款利差，要么進一步縮小利差，以幫助美國人民。政府對利差的這種關注對機構抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）有利，對我們的業務也有好處。

Second, the supply and demand dynamic for agency mortgage-backed securities continues to be well-balanced. With the primary mortgage rate persistently above 6%, the net new supply of agency MBS this year will be about $200 billion, the lower end of initial expectations. At the same time, the demand outlook has improved. Bank demand for agency MBS has been relatively muted this year, but should increase as regulatory reforms get implemented.

其次，機構抵押貸款擔保證券的供需動態仍保持良好平衡。由於主要抵押貸款利率持續高於 6%，今年機構抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 的淨新增供應量約為 2,000 億美元，處於最初預期的下限。同時，需求前景有所改善。今年銀行對機構抵押貸款支持證券的需求相對疲軟，但隨著監管改革的實施，需求應該會增加。

The money manager community is another important source of demand for agency MBS. Demand from this sector increased meaningfully in the third quarter as the favorable shift in monetary policy led to $180 billion of bond fund inflows, which are now running slightly ahead of last year's pace.

資金管理人群體是機構抵押貸款支持證券的另一個重要需求來源。第三季度，由於貨幣政策的有利轉變導致債券基金流入 1,800 億美元，該產業的需求顯著增加，目前流入速度略高於去年同期。

Third, the financing market for agency MBS remains strong. With bank reserves just under $3 trillion, the Fed will likely end balance sheet runoff within the next few months. Importantly, the Fed is also considering joining the FICC for purposes of the standing repo facility and using a repo-based measure as its primary target rate. If adopted, these changes would be highly beneficial to the repo market for US Treasuries and agency MBS, particularly during times of stress.

第三，機構抵押貸款支持證券的融資市場依然強勁。由於銀行儲備金略低於 3 兆美元，聯準會很可能在未來幾個月內結束資產負債表縮減計畫。重要的是，聯準會也在考慮加入FICC，以建立常設回購機制，並將基於回購的措施作為其主要目標利率。如果這些變化得到採納，將對美國國債和機構抵押貸款支持證券的回購市場大有裨益，尤其是在市場承壓時期。

Fourth and finally, the potential path of GSE reform continues to move in a favorable direction. The Treasury Department has taken a leadership role in the reform process, holding a series of roundtable discussions with a wide range of housing and mortgage market participants to gain insight into potential reform actions. This careful approach demonstrates the Treasury's commitment to maintaining mortgage market stability. To that end, the Treasury has emphasized three important guiding principles for GSE reform.

第四，也是最後一點，GSE改革的潛在路徑繼續朝著有利的方向發展。財政部在改革過程中發揮了領導作用，與眾多住房和抵押貸款市場參與者舉行了一系列圓桌討論，以深入了解潛在的改革措施。這種謹慎的做法顯示了財政部致力於維護抵押貸款市場穩定的決心。為此，財政部強調了政府支持企業改革的三個重要指導原則。

Maximize taxpayer value, lower the mortgage rate through stable or tighter mortgage spreads, and do no harm to the housing finance system. The mortgage market has responded well to this approach. Collectively, the four factors that I mentioned are currently pointing in a favorable direction for agency MBS. Moreover, given the Treasury's thoughtful approach, it is possible the agency market emerges from this reform process with a stronger and more durable structure.

最大限度地提高納稅人價值，透過穩定或收窄抵押貸款利差來降低抵押貸款利率，並且不損害房屋金融體系。抵押貸款市場對這種做法反應良好。總的來說，我提到的四個因素目前都對 MBS 機構有利。此外，鑑於財政部的深思熟慮的做法，代理市場有可能透過此改革進程，形成一個更強大、更持久的結構。

In this evolving investment environment, we believe AGNC, as the largest pure play levered agency investment vehicle, is well positioned to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders.

在當前不斷變化的投資環境中，我們相信 AGNC 作為最大的純粹槓桿代理投資工具，能夠為我們的股東創造具有吸引力的風險調整後收益。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bernie Bell, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss our financial results in greater detail.

接下來，我將把電話交給我們的財務長伯尼貝爾，讓他更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Peter. For the third quarter, AGNC reported comprehensive income of $0.78 per common share. Our economic return on tangible common equity was 10.6%, consisting of $0.36 of dividends declared per common share and a $0.47 increase in tangible net book value per common share, driven by a significant decline in interest rate volatility and tighter mortgage spreads to benchmark rates.

謝謝你，彼得。第三季度，AGNC公佈的綜合收益為每股普通股0.78美元。我們的有形普通股經濟回報率為 10.6%，其中包括每股普通股派發 0.36 美元的股息，以及每股普通股有形淨賬面價值增加 0.47 美元，這主要得益於利率波動性的大幅下降以及抵押貸款與基準利率之間的利差收窄。

As of late last week, our tangible net book value per common share was unchanged to slightly up for October. We ended the third quarter with leverage of 7.6 times tangible equity and average leverage of 7.5 times, both unchanged from the prior quarter. Our liquidity position remained very strong with $7.2 billion in cash and unencumbered agency MBS at the end of the quarter, representing 66% of tangible equity.

截至上週末，我們10月份的每股普通股有形淨帳面價值保持不變，略有上升。第三季末，我們的槓桿率為有形權益的 7.6 倍，平均槓桿率為 7.5 倍，均與上一季持平。截至季末，我們的流動性狀況依然非常強勁，擁有 72 億美元的現金和未受限制的機構抵押貸款支持證券，佔有形權益的 66%。

Net spread and dollar roll income declined $0.03 to $0.35 per common share for the quarter, driven by lower swap income due to the maturity of $4 billion of legacy swaps and a timing mismatch between the issuance and deployment of new preferred and common equity capital.

本季淨利差和美元展期收入下降 0.03 至每股 0.35 美元，主要原因是 40 億美元的遺留互換到期導致互換收入下降，以及新發行和部署優先股和普通股資本的時間錯配。

Another important driver of our net spread and dollar roll income is the amount of unhedged short-term debt in our funding mix, as measured by our hedge ratio. As of the end of the third quarter, our hedge ratio was 77%, representing the amount of swap- and treasury-based hedges, excluding option-based hedges, relative to our total funding liabilities. This hedge portfolio positioning reflects our expectations for an accommodative monetary policy environment and positions our net spread and dollar roll income to benefit from rate cuts as they occur.

影響我們淨利差和美元展期收入的另一個重要因素是我們融資組合中未對沖的短期債務金額，這可以透過我們的對沖比率來衡量。截至第三季末，我們的避險比率為 77%，代表基於互換和國債的避險金額（不包括基於選擇權的避險）相對於我們總融資負債的金額。這種對沖組合配置反映了我們對寬鬆貨幣政策環境的預期，並使我們的淨利差和美元滾動收入能夠從降息中受益。

Looking ahead, we expect that lower funding costs from the September rate cut and widely anticipated future rate cuts, along with the full deployment of recently raised capital and a shift in our hedge mix toward a greater share of swap-based hedges, will collectively provide a moderate tailwind to net spread and dollar roll income.

展望未來，我們預計 9 月降息帶來的較低融資成本以及普遍預期的未來降息，加上最近籌集的資本的全面部署以及我們的對沖組合向更大比例的互換對沖的轉變，將共同為淨利差和美元展期收入提供適度的利好。

The average projected life CPR of our portfolio increased 80 basis points to 8.6% at quarter end from 7.8% the prior quarter on lower mortgage rates. Actual CPRs averaged 8.3% for the quarter, compared to 8.7% in the prior quarter.

由於抵押貸款利率下降，我們投資組合的平均預期壽命 CPR 從上一季的 7.8% 上升 80 個基點至季度末的 8.6%。本季實際 CPR 平均值為 8.3%，而上一季為 8.7%。

Lastly, during the third quarter, we issued $345 million of fixed-rate preferred equity, the largest mortgage-rate preferred stock offering since 2021, and $309 million of common equity through our at-the-market offering program at a significant premium to our tangible net book value per share. Notably, the preferred issuance carries a cost significantly below the levered returns available on deployed capital, which is expected to further enhance future earnings available to common shareholders.

最後，在第三季度，我們發行了 3.45 億美元的固定利率優先股，這是自 2021 年以來規模最大的抵押貸款利率優先股發行；並透過我們的市場發行計劃發行了 3.09 億美元的普通股，發行價格較我們每股有形淨帳面價值有顯著溢價。值得注意的是，優先股的發行成本遠低於已投入資本可獲得的槓桿回報，預計將進一步提高普通股股東未來可獲得的收益。

And with that, I will turn the call back over to Peter for his concluding remarks.

接下來，我將把電話交還給彼得，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Bernie. Before opening the call up to your questions, I want to provide a brief review of portfolio activity. Agency spreads to both treasury and swap rates tightened meaningfully across the coupon stack in the third quarter, as interest rate volatility declined sharply.

謝謝你，伯尼。在正式開始回答各位的問題之前，我想先簡單回顧一下投資組合的活動。第三季度，隨著利率波動性大幅下降，機構債券與國債和互換利率之間的利差在整個票息結構中均顯著收窄。

Intermediate coupons performed the best, driven by strong index-based buying from money managers. Higher coupons also generated positive excess returns, but to a lesser extent, as the sizable inter-quarter rally in long-term interest rates increased prepayment concerns associated with these coupons. Hedge composition was also a driver of performance in the third quarter, as swap spreads widened 2 basis points to 5 basis points across the curve.

受基金經理人強勁指數型買入的推動，中期債券表現最佳。較高的票息也帶來了正的超額收益，但程度較輕，因為長期利率在季度間的大幅上漲加劇了與這些票息相關的提前還款擔憂。對沖組合也是第三季業績的一個驅動因素，因為整個殖利率曲線的互換利差擴大了 2 到 5 個基點。

Our asset portfolio totaled $91 billion at quarter end, up meaningfully from the prior quarter, as we fully deployed the capital that we raised in the second and third quarters. As is often the case when we deploy new capital, the mortgages that we added were largely newly originated production coupon MBS. Over time, however, we optimized our asset composition by rotating into pools with favorable prepayment characteristics as opportunities arise.

截至季末，我們的資產組合總額為 910 億美元，較上一季大幅成長，因為我們已將第二季和第三季籌集的資金全部投入使用。正如我們部署新資本時經常發生的那樣，我們新增的抵押貸款大多是新發放的生產性票息抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS)。然而，隨著時間的推移，我們透過在機會出現時輪換到具有有利提前還款特徵的資產池來優化我們的資產組成。

Consistent with the growth in our asset portfolio, our TBA position increased to $14 billion at quarter end. As a result, the percentage of our assets with favorable prepayment attributes declined to 76% in the third quarter. The weighted average coupon of our portfolio increased slightly to 5.14%. The notional balance of our swap and treasury-based hedges remained relatively stable during the quarter, but the composition of our portfolio shifted to a greater share of longer dated swap-based hedges. In duration dollar terms, our swap-based hedges increased to 59% of our overall portfolio.

與我們的資產組合成長一致，截至季末，我們的待售資產 (TBA) 部位增加至 140 億美元。因此，第三季我們具有有利提前還款屬性的資產比例下降至 76%。我們投資組合的加權平均票息略為上升至 5.14%。本季度，我們的互換和國債對沖的名目餘額保持相對穩定，但我們的投資組合構成轉向了更大比例的長期互換對沖。以美元計價，我們的互換對沖佔整體投資組合的比例增加到 59%。

Lastly, given the convexity profile of our assets and the large decline in interest rate volatility, we opportunistically added $7 billion of receiver swaptions during the quarter as an additional source of down-rate protection.

最後，鑑於我們資產的凸性特徵和利率波動性的大幅下降，我們在本季度抓住機會增加了 70 億美元的接收方互換選擇權，作為額外的利率下行保護來源。

With that, I'll now open the call up to your questions.

接下來，我將開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Crispin Love, Piper Sandler.

（操作說明）克里斯平·洛夫，派珀·桑德勒。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Spreads have tightened materially over the last few months, and just looking at your results, core earnings were a penny below the dividend. Can you just discuss expect ROEs? Have they shifted at all, just given the spread tightening and then just touching on the sustainability of the current dividend?

謝謝。各位早安。過去幾個月，利差大幅收窄，僅從你們的業績來看，核心收益比股利低了一分錢。能不能只討論一下預期淨資產收益率（ROE）？鑑於利差收窄以及當前股息的可持續性問題，他們的態度是否有所轉變？

Sure. Yeah, I appreciate that question. First, you're right. From a spread perspective, we had a really nice move in spreads, and they're moving. As I talked about in my prepared remarks, I talked about that four-year range. When you think about, for example, current coupon to the blended swap curve, that range has been about 160 basis points to 200 basis points generally over the last four years.

當然。是的，我很感謝你的提問。首先，你說得對。從價差的角度來看，價差走勢非常不錯，而且還在持續波動。正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的，我談到了這四年的時間範圍。例如，以當前票息與混合互換曲線的比值來看，過去四年來，該比值範圍通常在 160 個基點到 200 個基點之間。

And we are now trading closer to the lower end of that range, maybe about 170 basis points. And you take where mortgages are versus swaps, where they are versus Treasuries. If you think about that from an ROE perspective today, I would still say mortgages are in the expected ROE range for current coupon, somewhere between 16% and 18%, which aligns really well with our total cost of capital.

我們現在的交易價格更接近該區間的下限，大約在 170 個基點左右。然後你要看看房貸與互換交易的走勢，以及它們與國債的走勢。如果從今天的 ROE 角度來看，我仍然認為抵押貸款的 ROE 處於當前票息的預期範圍內，大約在 16% 到 18% 之間，這與我們的總資本成本非常吻合。

So when we think about dividend sustainability, I'd like to go back to looking at that measure. And that's the important break-even, obviously, that we're trying to achieve. That's the payment of all of our common stock dividends, our preferred stock dividends. And our operating costs over our equity base. And that dropped, as you would expect, as our equity base increased. That dropped about a percent quarter-over-quarter. So now it's at about 17%.

所以，當我們考慮股息可持續性時，我想重新審視這個指標。顯然，這就是我們努力想要達到的重要損益平衡點。這就是我們所有普通股股息和優先股股息的支付總額。我們的營運成本超過了我們的權益基礎。正如你所預料的那樣，隨著我們的權益基礎增加，這一比例也下降了。該數據環比下降了約1個百分點。所以現在大約是 17%。

So it aligns with the economics of where mortgages are trading today. And there was some noise Bernie talked about, and I'm sure we'll talk more about this on the call. But there was some noise with our net spread and dollar roll income dropped to $0.35. And she talked about the drivers that drove that.

所以這與當前抵押貸款的交易經濟狀況相符。伯尼也提到了一些噪音問題，我相信我們會在電話會議上進一步討論這個問題。但我們的淨利差出現了一些波動，美元展期收入降至0.35美元。她談到了導致這種情況的原因。

Some of those were largely temporary drivers -- the expiration of some of our short swaps. And the hedge ratio -- swap hedge ratio was lower this quarter in day count. And a lot of little things contributed to that. But she also talked about the fact that we're probably at a low point or near a low point for that measure. And that there's reasons to believe that measure of earnings is going to improve.

其中一些因素主要是暫時的—例如我們的一些短期互換合約到期。本季對沖比率－掉期對沖比率以天數計算有所下降。很多小事都促成了這種情況。但她也談到，就這項指標而言，我們可能正處於低谷或接近低谷。有理由相信，衡量獲利的這項指標將會改善。

But overall, you're right. Spreads have tightened a lot. There's lots of factors that we'll talk about over the call that could drive them even tighter. But from a dividend sustainability perspective and from a return perspective, I think those two things are still well aligned right now today.

但總的來說，你是對的。價差已經大幅收窄。我們將在電話會議中討論許多可能導致雙方關係更加緊張的因素。但從股息可持續性和回報的角度來看，我認為這兩方面目前仍然非常契合。

I'll pause and let you follow up.

我先暫停一下，讓你接著說。

Thanks, Peter. All really helpful. And then you mentioned it in your prepared remarks, but decreased the hedge ratio meaningfully in the quarter. Can you discuss that a bit further? What drove that? Are you taking more of a near-term rate outlook view here, specifically decreased rate vol?

謝謝你，彼得。都很有幫助。然後你在事先準備好的發言稿中提到了這一點，但本季大幅降低了對沖比率。能再詳細談談這個問題嗎？是什麼原因導致這種情況？您這裡更關注的是短期利率前景，特別是利率波動性下降嗎？

And then what do you think is the key risk, just given the lower ratio, and do those receiver swaptionss you mentioned these risks?

那麼，考慮到較低的比率，您認為主要風險是什麼？您提到的那些接收方互換選擇權是否有這些風險？

Yeah. So there's a couple of important things happening with the hedge ratio we talked about -- I mentioned the receiver swaptions. I'll get to those at the end of this question. And then Bernie also talked about our overall hedge ratio. Because we added receiver swaptions, we kind of gave you two hedge ratios this time.

是的。所以，我們討論過的對沖比率中發生了一些重要的事情——我提到了接收方互換選擇權。我會在這個問題的最後談到這些。然後伯尼也談到了我們的整體對沖比率。因為我們增加了接收方互換選擇權，所以這次我們實際上給了你兩個對沖比率。

If you look at our overall hedge portfolio, it dropped to whatever the number was, 68%, I think. The number that I look at, though, that I think is important when you think about our net spread and dollar roll income, this is important for the reason why net spread and dollar roll income has been under a little additional pressure and why we think we probably hit a trough and there's some upward momentum in our net spread and dollar roll income.

如果你看我們的整體對沖投資組合，它已經下降到某個數字，我想是 68%。不過，我關注的一個數字，我認為在考慮我們的淨利差和美元滾動收入時很重要，這很重要，因為淨利差和美元滾動收入一直承受著一些額外的壓力，而我們認為我們可能已經觸底反彈，淨利差和美元滾動收入出現了一些上升勢頭。

Our hedge ratio, when you think about our swap-based hedges and treasury-based hedges, which are the hedges that we use to convert our short-term debt to synthetic long-term debt, that hedge ratio was 77%, as Bernie mentioned, at the end of the quarter.

正如伯尼所提到的，在本季末，我們的對沖比率（包括基於互換的對沖和基於國債的對沖，即我們用來將短期債務轉換為合成長期債務的對沖）為 77%。

What that means is we have 23% funding in our funding mix, 23% of short-term debt. Think about where short-term debt costs are versus all other costs. The average repo cost on short-term debt last quarter was 4.43%. It's the highest cost mix in our funding mix. 23% of our funding liability is short-term debt at the highest cost.

這意味著我們的融資組合中有 23% 的資金來自短期債務，而這部分資金佔 23%。想想短期債務成本與其他所有成本相比如何。上季短期債務的平均回購成本為 4.43%。這是我們融資組合中成本最高的部分。我們23%的融資負債是成本最高的短期債務。

That cost will come down over time as the Fed eases. It will already come down after the first ease. We expect further eases. So we will get the benefit of that. Just to quantify that, that amount of short-term debt in our mix, having it funded at 4.43% versus, for example, where swap rates are in the three- to five-year sector, that's about 100 basis points of additional cost. Over time, that's about a $0.05 improvement that we should get as short-term rates come down.

隨著聯準會放鬆貨幣政策，這項成本會逐漸下降。第一輪寬鬆政策實施後，價格就會下降。我們預計政策將進一步放寬。所以我們會從中受益。為了量化這一點，我們投資組合中的這部分短期債務，如果以 4.43% 的利率融資，而例如，三至五年期互換利率的利率，則會增加約 100 個基點的成本。隨著時間的推移，隨著短期利率的下降，我們應該可以獲得約 0.05 美元的收益。

So we positioned the portfolio that way from a hedge ratio perspective to get the benefit of this Fed pivot to a more accommodative monetary policy. It looks like the momentum for rate cuts is actually increasing. So I expect that benefit to show up over the next couple quarters.

因此，從對沖比率的角度來看，我們這樣配置了投資組合，以期從聯準會轉向更寬鬆的貨幣政策中獲益。看來降息的勢頭確實正在增強。所以我預計這種益處將在未來幾季顯現出來。

We also made some changes to your other point about the composition of our portfolio. Because of the rate environment that we're in and the fact that the administration is so focused on longer-term rates, we do have to be more cognizant today versus a quarter or two ago about the risk of lower long-term rates and uptick in prepayments and mortgages.

針對您提出的關於我們投資組合構成的另一點，我們也做了一些修改。由於我們目前所處的利率環境以及政府對長期利率的重視，與一兩個季度前相比，我們現在確實需要更加意識到長期利率下降以及提前還款和抵押貸款增加的風險。

With the decline in volatility and our concern for wanting a little bit more down-rate protection, we do that through asset selection, but we also can do that through options. In this last quarter, we actually added $7 billion of receiver swaptions that will give us some additional down-rate protection. But because that's a receiver position, it kind of throws off that hedge ratio calculation. That's why I wanted to explain that and break that up for you.

隨著波動性的下降，以及我們希望獲得更多下行風險保護，我們可以透過資產選擇來實現這一點，但我們也可以透過選擇權來實現這一點。在上個季度，我們實際上增加了 70 億美元的接收方互換選擇權，這將為我們提供一些額外的利率下行保護。但因為這是接收方職位，所以會打亂對沖比率的計算。所以我才想解釋一下，給你詳細講解。

So there's two things going on in our hedge composition, both of which are important. One, to understand our net spread and dollar roll income and that incremental drag that we're seeing right now, which should reverse over time, and then just wanting additional down-rate protection.

因此，我們的對沖組合中包含兩件事，這兩件事都很重要。第一，是為了了解我們的淨利差和美元展期收入，以及我們目前看到的增量拖累（隨著時間的推移，這種情況應該會逆轉），然後只是想要額外的降息保護。

Great. Thank you, Peter. It all makes sense. I appreciate you taking my questions.

偉大的。謝謝你，彼得。一切都說得通。感謝您回答我的問題。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

Terry Ma，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning. Thank you. Good morning. Maybe just to touch on your comments around incremental demand for MBS from money managers in the quarter. Was that kind of episodic, or do you think that appetite will be sustained going forward?

早安.謝謝。早安.我想就您提到的本季資金管理​​人對抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 的增量需求發表一些看法。那是偶發性的現象，還是你認為這種需求會持續下去？

Well, yeah, it's really fascinating. And it's to be expected. The shift in monetary policy really can't be underestimated. I mean, it was a significant change, particularly for just fixed income, just broadly. And you really saw that, we collectively, the fixed income market has been waiting for the Fed to pivot, and there's lots of uncertainty around tariffs.

嗯，是啊，這真的很有趣。這是意料之中的事。貨幣政策的轉變絕非小事。我的意思是，這是一個重大變化，尤其對固定收益市場而言，影響非常廣泛。確實，我們整個固定收益市場都在等待聯準會轉變政策方向，而關稅方面存在著許多不確定性。

And now we got the pivot, and actually it looks like the pivot, in my opinion, is sort of gaining momentum. But when you look at what happened to bond fund flows, there was $100 billion of bond fund inflows in the first quarter, $50 billion in the second quarter, so $150 billion in the first half of the year, and then a huge uptick to $180 billion in the third quarter.

現在我們有了轉型，在我看來，轉型似乎正在加速發展。但如果你看看債券基金的資金流動情況，你會發現第一季債券基金流入了 1,000 億美元，第二季流入了 500 億美元，所以上半年流入了 1,500 億美元，然後在第三季大幅成長至 1,800 億美元。

And as I mentioned now, on a per-day basis, I think it's a little over $8.5 billion a day of inflows. Right now, we are in the $450 billion range this year, and I don't think that's the same sort of weekly pace. So I expect bond fund inflows to remain robust, particularly given the Fed's move. Obviously, the market expects them to ease at the next two meetings, and you also have sort of a deteriorating, if you will, or less optimistic equity outlook in the current environment.

正如我剛才提到的，按日計算，我認為每天的資金流入略高於 85 億美元。目前，我們今年的總額在 4500 億美元左右，我認為這與每週的成長速度並不相同。因此，我預期債券基金資金流入將保持強勁，尤其是在聯準會採取行動的情況下。顯然，市場預期他們將在接下來的兩次會議上放鬆管制，在當前環境下，股市前景也呈現出某種惡化或不那麼樂觀的趨勢。

So lots of money still on the sidelines in money market funds, maybe the equity market, because it's at all-time high, there might be some rotation out of there. So I expect bond fund flows to remain robust, and that, I think, will continue to support, particularly the lower and middle coupons into the end of the year.

所以，貨幣市場基金裡還有很多資金在觀望，或許股票市場也是如此，因為股票市場處於歷史高位，可能會出現一些資金輪動。因此，我預計債券資金流動將保持強勁，我認為這將繼續支撐債券市場，尤其是中低利率債券，直到年底。

And then the other important driver of demand, which is still uncertain, but I do think it's pointing in a very favorable direction, is what's going to come from banks. Banks have added only about -- I say only, but it's still significant, but they've added about $50 billion of mortgages this year. But they've also added, interestingly, $200 billion of treasuries.

另一個重要的需求驅動因素，雖然目前仍不確定，但我認為它正朝著非常有利的方向發展，那就是銀行業即將採取的行動。今年銀行新增的抵押貸款只有大約——我說“只有”，但這仍然意義重大，他們今年只新增了大約 500 億美元的抵押貸款。但有趣的是，他們還增持了 2,000 億美元的國債。

So the question is, as these bank reforms become a reality, and I think that they will become a reality, I think for the new Basel end game, I think it's looking like it's going to be in the first quarter. But from everything that we are understanding, that's going to be, I think, a positive for bank capital, particularly as it relates to mortgage credit just generally.

所以問題是，隨著這些銀行改革成為現實（我認為它們終將成為現實），我認為新的巴塞爾協議的最終目標很可能是在第一季實現。但根據我們目前了解的情況，我認為這對銀行資本來說將是一個好消息，尤其是在抵押貸款方面。

And so I think that there could be an uptick in bank demand for mortgages and maybe some rotation out of treasuries into mortgages once that bank regulation becomes clear. So from a demand perspective, I think the outlook is certainly stable, if not improving.

因此，我認為一旦銀行監管政策明朗化，銀行對抵押貸款的需求可能會上升，資金可能會從國債轉向抵押貸款。因此，從需求角度來看，我認為前景肯定是穩定的，甚至可能正在改善。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just to follow up, appreciate all the color in the net spread and the dynamics around that. But I guess to the extent that Fed easing gets delayed or pushed out or maybe doesn't even materialize, do you still expect a near-term tailwind in the net spread when you kind of factor in just, I guess, capital deployment and also just swaps rolling off?

知道了。那很有幫助。最後，請欣賞淨價差中的所有色彩以及圍繞它的動態變化。但我想，如果聯準會的寬鬆政策被推遲、推遲，甚至根本沒有實施，考慮到資本部署以及互換合約到期等因素，您是否仍然預期淨利差會在短期內出現利好？

Yeah, I do. I mean, so again, there's a kind of a confluence of things that have dragged it down maybe a penny or two more than one might have expected. Bernie mentioned just timing mismatches between our capital raising. And we talked about this at the end of the second quarter when we raised, I think, $800 billion in the second quarter. We were slow to deploy those proceeds. We did that intentionally.

是的，我有。我的意思是，所以再次強調，多種因素共同作用，導致價格比預期略微下跌了一兩便士。伯尼提到，我們籌集資金的時間點有不符。我們在第二季末也討論過這個問題，當時我們在第二季籌集了大約 8000 億美元。我們未能及時將這些資金投入使用。我們是故意這麼做的。

So we entered the quarter with a little bit of excess capital that we ultimately got deployed. So when you do that, it can be a drag on our earnings. And we saw the kind of effect of that. But as I mentioned and as Bernie mentioned, all those proceeds have now been sort of fully deployed. So we got that headwind behind us. And that's really important.

因此，我們帶著一些多餘的資金進入了本季度，最終這些資金都得到了充分利用。所以這樣做會拖累我們的收益。我們看到了這種影響。但正如我和伯尼都提到的那樣，所有這些收益現在基本上都已全部投入使用。所以我們現在順風而行了。這一點非常重要。

And the other, with respect to -- this is kind of a nuanced answer, but it's an important one -- with respect to short-term debt, what's important now is where is short-term swap rates, for example? Where are they priced relative to the Fed Fund's neutral rate or the target rate? So what's happened over the last couple of months as the Fed has transitioned, one, we got the first ease.

至於另一個問題──這是一個比較細緻的回答，但卻很重要──關於短期債務，現在重要的是短期互換利率在哪裡，例如？它們的定價相對於聯邦基金中性利率或目標利率而言如何？所以，在過去幾個月裡，隨著聯準會的政策轉型，發生了以下情況：第一，我們迎來了第一次寬鬆政策。

That's important. But also take, for example, two- and three-year swap rates. They now reflect essentially the neutral Fed Fund's rate at around 3.25%. So you can kind of get to the same answer by doing one of two things. You can wait until the actual eases occur, and that will get reflected in our repo balance. Or you could also turn that out into the swap market at essentially the same long-run neutral rate. So I do expect that to be a benefit over the next, call it, three or four quarters.

這很重要。但也可以看看兩年期和三年期互換利率。它們現在基本上反映了中性聯邦基金利率，約為 3.25%。所以，你可以透過兩種方法中的一種得出相同的答案。您可以等到實際寬鬆政策實施後再觀察，屆時我們的庫存餘額將會反映出來。或者你也可以將其投入互換市場，以基本上相同的長期中性利率進行交易。所以我預計在接下來的三到四個季度內，這將會帶來好處。

Got it. Super helpful. Thank you.

知道了。非常有用。謝謝。

Rick Shane, JP Morgan.

Rick Shane，摩根大通。

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions this morning. Look, on the whiteboard in my office, I have a note that says it's never different this time. But when we look at the rate, the refi environment, the distribution of outstanding mortgages is different than we've ever seen. It's not a bell curve. It's a barbell.

嘿，夥計們。謝謝您今天上午回答我的問題。你看，我辦公室的白板上寫著：這次也是。但當我們觀察利率、再融資環境以及未償還抵押貸款的分佈時，就會發現它們與我們以往所見的截然不同。這不是常態分佈曲線。這是一根槓鈴。

You have borrowers over the last three years who have really probably been sold mortgages with the idea that they are going to be able to refinance them. And I think we probably, having thought, predicted this for two decades, may be finally on the cusp of the mortgage origination process being transformed by technology.

過去三年裡，許多藉款人可能當初被推銷抵押貸款時，都抱著能夠進行再融資的想法。而且我認為，經過二十年的思考和預測，我們或許終於站在了抵押貸款發放流程因技術而改變的開端。

Do you think -- are you guys seeing different behavior in terms of speeds? Is it a risk that we need to be thinking about at this point?

你們覺得──你們是否觀察到速度方面有不同的現象？這是我們現在需要考慮的風險嗎？

Yes to all of the above. And that's one of the reasons why I talked in the previous answer about wanting more downrate protection, particularly given the administration's focus on mortgage rates and housing affordability, which are all very important. But we are seeing all of those factors.

以上全部正確。這也是我在先前的回答中談到希望獲得更多降息保障的原因之一，尤其考慮到政府關注抵押貸款利率和住房負擔能力，而這些都非常重要。但我們看到所有這些因素都存在。

First, let me just put in perspective sort of the refinance outlook, if you will, from a mortgage perspective, some traditional perspective. When we talk about refinance ability of the universe, we talk about when mortgages are about 50 basis points in the money. So at a 6% mortgage rate, which is about where it is today, 20%, this gets to your point about the composition of the universe, only 20% of the market has a 50 basis point incentive.

首先，讓我從抵押貸款的角度，從一些傳統的角度，來談談再融資的前景。當我們談論整個市場的再融資能力時，我們指的是抵押貸款的利率比貸款利率高出約 50 個基點的情況。因此，在 6% 的抵押貸款利率下（這和目前的利率差不多），20% 的利率就符合你關於市場構成的問題，只有 20% 的市場有 50 個基點的折扣。

And that mortgage rate has been persistent at 6% or above, and it's likely going to stay fairly high, given that it's difficult for the tenure to get much below 4%. But that's about 20% today. A full 100 basis point drop in the mortgage rate to 5%, which is going to take some new information to get that mortgage rate down to that, that's for sure.

抵押貸款利率一直維持在 6% 或以上，而且鑑於貸款期限很難降至 4% 以下，該利率很可能會繼續保持在相當高的水平。但現在這個比例大約是20%。抵押貸款利率要下降整整 100 個基點至 5%，這肯定需要一些新的資訊才能將抵押貸款利率降到這個水平。

That percent increases to 30% of the universe. And it will take a full 200 basis point rally in the mortgage rate to 4% in order for 40% of the universe to become refinanceable. So in terms of the big numbers, you need a really sizable move in the mortgage rate to have a big prepayment event.

這個百分比增加到宇宙的30%。只有抵押貸款利率上漲 200 個基點至 4%，才能使 40% 的貸款對象獲得再融資。所以從大數字來看，抵押貸款利率需要非常大的波動才能引發大額提前還款事件。

All that said, what we are seeing consistently is that there is a lot of capacity in the system for refinance activity. Technology is definitely having an impact. And you can see that, for example, we've seen it for the last couple quarters.

綜上所述，我們一直看到的是，系統中存在大量的再融資能力。科技無疑正在產生影響。例如，我們可以看到，在過去的幾個季度裡，這種情況一直存在。

In this last quarter, for example, when we see brief periods of the mortgage rate dropping, like for example, I think it was in the month of September, the mortgage rate dropped below 6.15%. Maybe it got to as low as maybe 6.10% or something in that. And it stayed there for only a couple weeks. What we're seeing is a very fast pull through of refinance activity.

例如，在上個季度，我們看到抵押貸款利率短暫下降，例如，我認為是在 9 月份，抵押貸款利率降至 6.15% 以下。或許最低降到了 6.10% 左右。它只在那裡停留了幾個星期。我們看到的是再融資活動迅速回升。

So what that's telling you is there's pent-up demand. There's capacity to process those loans. And the mortgage originators are pulling them through in a much faster time period than they do historically. So those are all things that we have to be cognizant of -- and that's one of the reasons why we wanted more down rate protection. We'll likely operate with a positive duration gap. And we are always trying to optimize the asset composition of our portfolio so that we have the best characteristics possible that will give us more prepayment protection. I talked about that percent being at around 75%, 76%. But we've been operating 80 or 80, north of 80. And certainly for the higher coupons, we want that percent to be very high.

這說明市場存在被壓抑的需求。我們有能力處理這些貸款。而且，抵押貸款機構完成貸款審批的速度比以往快得多。所以這些都是我們必須注意的事情——這也是我們想要更多首付保護的原因之一。我們可能會採取正向持續時間缺口策略。我們一直在努力優化投資組合的資產組成，以便擁有最佳特性，從而為我們提供更多的提前還款保障。我當時說這個百分比大約在 75% 到 76% 之間。但我們的運行速度一直保持在 80 或 80 以上。當然，對於金額較大的優惠券，我們希望這個百分比非常高。

One final point I'll make on the prepayment outlook. One of the other things that you'll see in the coupon composition of our portfolio, I talked about focusing our purchases at the production coupon, which is in the 5% to 5.5% range. You'll see that we've gone down in coupon somewhat. The concentration of our portfolio is now between 4.5% and 5.5%. So that, too, gives us additional prepayment protection.

關於預付款前景，我最後再補充一點。在我們的投資組合的優惠券組成中，您還會看到另一件事，我談到我們將採購重點放在生產優惠券上，其範圍在 5% 到 5.5% 之間。你會發現我們的優惠券數量有所減少。我們投資組合的集中度目前在 4.5% 到 5.5% 之間。這樣也能為我們提供額外的預付款保障。

Hey, Peter, this is why I love this job. That's such an interesting answer. I do appreciate it. If I can ask one follow-up, which is that as policymakers are looking for ways to improve affordability, do you see levers out there that are available to reduce the incentive that borrowers need to narrow that 50 basis points in a way that could increase speeds as well?

嘿，彼得，這就是我喜歡這份工作的原因。這真是個有趣的答案。我很感激。如果我能再問一個後續問題，那就是，當政策制定者尋求提高可負擔性的方法時，您是否看到有什麼手段可以減少借款人縮小 50 個基點利率差距的動力，從而加快貸款速度？

Well, so one is -- I'll answer that in two ways because it is really fascinating. First, they're actually -- because there's so much capacity in the origination business right now from a mortgage originator perspective and the refinance and the technology and so forth, there does appear to be some anecdotal evidence that they are getting mortgage borrowers to refinance with something less than a 50 basis point incentive.

嗯，所以其中一個問題是——我會從兩個方面來回答這個問題，因為它真的很有趣。首先，實際上——因為從抵押貸款發起機構的角度來看，目前的貸款業務產能非常充足，而且再融資和技術等等方面也都很發達，所以似乎有一些軼事證據表明，他們能夠以低於 50 個基點的激勵措施讓抵押貸款借款人進行再融資。

So there could be people refinancing for as little as 25 basis points of incentive -- because if the technology is so it's that easy, if the costs are low, and a lot depends on where you are the geography matters an incredible amount when it comes to refinance cost. The state you live in, the locality, the title, taxes recording all of those things vary greatly from one location to another. So that certainly -- that certainly is a consideration.

因此，有些人可能只需 25 個基點的誘因就能進行再融資——因為如果技術足夠先進，再融資就很容易，成本也很低，而且很大程度上取決於你所在的地區，地理位置在再融資成本方面起著至關重要的作用。你居住的州、地區、產權、稅務記錄等等，所有這些方面都因地而異。所以，這當然是一個需要考慮的因素。

There are things that can be done that would streamline this further. One would be the GSEs certainly have, at times, taken actions that would do that, for example, waving of appraisals or other sort of insurance, there's a discussion about the insurance waiver for refinances, which is an interesting title insurance. That's very interesting. I don't know that, that will go through or not because there's risk associated with that. But that's a clear example of the GSEs and the regulator trying to come up ways to improve the refinanceability..

還有一些措施可以進一步簡化這項流程。其中一個原因是，政府支持企業 (GSE) 有時確實採取過一些行動，例如免除評估或其他類型的保險。目前正在討論的是再融資的保險豁免，這是一種有趣的產權保險。這很有意思。我不知道這件事能否成功，因為這其中有風險。但這清楚地表明，政府支持企業和監管機構正在努力尋找提高再融資能力的方法。

One final point. From an administration perspective, and this is why I brought this up. The administration's focused on mortgage spreads, in my opinion, is unprecedented. I've never heard of the administration and the Treasury Secretary identifying the spread between the mortgage rate and the risk-free rate as clearly as he has. That's a clear sign that they believe that if they can take actions through their -- perhaps through their reform to stabilize or lower that spread further that, that will transfer into the mortgage rate and transfer into refinanceability.

最後一點。從管理角度來看，這也是我提出這個問題的原因。在我看來，本屆政府對抵押貸款利差的關注是前所未有的。我從未聽說過政府和財政部長像他這樣如此清楚地闡明抵押貸款利率和無風險利率之間的利差。這清楚地表明，他們認為，如果他們能夠透過他們的改革來穩定或進一步降低利差，那麼這將轉化為抵押貸款利率，並轉化為再融資能力。

They can certainly do things with respect to treasury issuance and they are clearly focused as a treasury are clearly focused on the 10-year. So that's something that we have to watch, whether they change the composition of their interest some more short-term entry short-term issuance versus long term?

他們當然可以就國債發行採取一些行動，而且作為財政部，他們顯然專注於 10 年期國債。所以我們需要觀察一下，他們是否會改變投資結構，增加短期投資、短期發行債券與長期債券的比較？

And then sort of when you think about just the GSE reform process, I still believe that there are things that can be done, how they treat MBS from a capital perspective in this new bank regulation is going to be important to watch. That could be another source that would lead to greater refinance activity and maybe even an adjustment to the capital requirement for Agency MBS depending on how the path of reform goes. So there's lots they can do, and there's lots that's happening. It's a very interesting time.

然後，當你仔細考慮 GSE 改革進程時，我仍然認為有些事情是可以做的，在新銀行監管中，他們如何從資本角度對待 MBS 將是一個值得關注的重要議題。這可能是導致再融資活動增加的另一個來源，甚至可能根據改革路徑的走向，調整機構抵押貸款支持證券的資本需求。所以他們有很多事可做，也有很多事正在發生。這是一個非常有趣的時代。

Got it. Really appreciate the time. Thank you, guys.

知道了。非常感謝您抽出時間。謝謝大家。

Trevor Cranston, Citizens JMP.

Trevor Cranston，Citizens JMP。

Hey, good morning. Peter, you painted a pretty positive picture in terms of the supply-demand outlook for MBS. I guess the other thing that could have a major impact on spreads would be implied volatility and how that's being priced. So can you maybe share your outlook on volatility if you think there's room for that to continue coming down or if there are things you guys are thinking about that could cause that to move back to a higher level? Thanks.

嘿，早安。Peter，你對抵押貸款支持證券的供需前景描繪了一幅相當樂觀的圖景。我認為另一個可能對價差產生重大影響的因素是隱含波動率及其定價方式。那麼，您能否分享一下您對市場波動性的看法？您認為市場波動性還有下降的空間嗎？或者，您認為有哪些因素可能導致市場波動性回升到更高水準？謝謝。

Yes, it's a great question. I think it's really important because as we talked about, I think it was in the first question, we talked about where spreads are today and the fact that spreads are nearer the lower end of the range. And the question that really, I think everybody asked at this point is -- are we going to bounce back up into the range? Is there a reason for spreads to bounce off these lows and then sort of move back into the middle of the range, which it's been to practice?

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我認為這非常重要，因為正如我們之前討論過的，我想在第一個問題中，我們討論了目前的價差情況，以及價差接近區間下限的事實。而我認為此時此刻每個人都在問的問題是──我們會反彈回正常區間嗎？價差從這些低點反彈，然後回到區間中部（正如實踐中觀察到的），這其中有什麼原因嗎？

Or how are the forces sort of evolving that will drive spreads in one direction or another. The way I would describe sort of our outlook on spreads from a macro perspective is that -- as we went through the last several years, there were lots of reasons why we had a question what the upper end of the range was. There was so much uncertainty in the system monetary policy, fiscal policy, geopolitical risk, all those things the Fed tightening monetary policy in an unprecedented way in the balance sheet runoff.

或者說，哪些力量正在演變，從而推動價格朝著某個方向發展？從宏觀的角度來看，我對價差的看法是這樣——在過去的幾年裡，我們有很多理由對價差範圍的上限感到困惑。貨幣政策、財政政策、地緣政治風險等許多因素都存在很大的不確定性，聯準會在縮減資產負債表的同時，以前所未有的方式收緊了貨幣政策。

All those things made us question where the upper end of the spread range was. Today, I feel highly confident in the upper end of the spread range. And I feel less confident if you think about it this way, in the lower end of the spread range, that there are now a number of factors that are pointing as possible reasons why spreads could break through the lower end of the range.

所有這些都讓我們開始質疑價差範圍的上限在哪裡。今天，我對價差範圍的上限非常有信心。如果從這個角度考慮，我會感到信心不足，因為在價差範圍的下限，現在有很多因素表明價差可能會突破範圍的下限。

We talked about the administration -- just what we just talked about, the administration’s focus on spreads. The demand outlook improving while supply stays relatively in check. The funding market is an interesting one because the Fed is right at the inflection point with respect to its balance sheet. And given where funding rates are now, I really do expect the Fed to end its balance sheet very soon, I'm kind of looking for them to end their balance sheet at this meeting and announce it for either November or December, but I do expect it, certainly by the end of the year, given the way the funding markets are behaving.

我們談到了政府——就像我們剛才談到的那樣，政府對疫情蔓延的關注。需求前景改善，而供給相對穩定。融資市場很有意思，因為聯準會的資產負債表正處於轉折點。鑑於目前的融資利率，我真的預計聯準會很快就會結束其資產負債表。我預計他們會在本次會議上結束資產負債表，並宣佈在 11 月或 12 月結束，但鑑於融資市場的運作情況，我預計肯定會在年底前結束。

And then they are also considering, as I pointed out, other changes that I think would be really good for the repo market. So that's a positive. And then I think that the treasury's leadership on GSE reform indicates that they, like we just said, are looking for reasons and actions that they can take that would improve the spread outlook.

正如我指出的那樣，他們還在考慮其他一些我認為對回購市場非常有利的改變。這是個好消息。我認為，財政部在政府支持企業改革方面的領導作用表明，正如我們剛才所說，他們正在尋找可以採取哪些措施來改善利差前景。

From a volatility perspective, we certainly have a very favorable monetary policy stance evolving. That's really good. It should be good for volatility. If there is some clarity in the next month or two with respect to tariffs in particular, then I think we have an environment from a volatility perspective where interest rates could remain relative volatility can remain relatively benign. And that's a really -- put all that together, those are reasons why mortgages could break through the lower end of the range.

從波動性角度來看，我們目前確實看到了一個非常有利的貨幣政策立場。那真不錯。這應該有利於市場波動。如果未來一兩個月內關稅方面能有一些明朗的跡象，那麼我認為從波動性的角度來看，利率可能會保持相對溫和，波動性也會保持相對溫和。綜合以上所有因素，這些都是房貸可能突破利率區間下限的原因。

So that's the way I look at it. And there are less reasons to be concerned about mortgages going wider and certainly going through the upper end of the range, and there's more reasons to believe that mortgages could go through the lower end of the range.

這就是我的看法。而且，人們不太擔心抵押貸款範圍擴大，更不必擔心抵押貸款會達到範圍的上限，反而有更多理由相信抵押貸款可能會達到範圍的下限。

Yes. Okay. That makes sense. And then you guys recently announced the creation of these current coupon indices. Can you maybe just briefly talk about kind of what the economics are for AGNC and if there's kind of any other things you guys are sort of exploring on the like third-party asset management side of things?

是的。好的。這很有道理。然後你們最近宣布創建了這些目前的優惠券指數。您能否簡要談談AGNC的經濟狀況，以及您在第三方資產管理方面是否還有其他正在探索的方向？

Yes. We did that not for any reason for economics. I don't think there's any economics to it. But we did spend a lot of time on putting that index together. And we did it just because we felt like it would be beneficial to the market.

是的。我們這樣做並非出於任何經濟原因。我認為這其中沒有任何經濟因素。但我們確實花了很多時間來編制這個指數。我們這樣做只是因為我們覺得這對市場有利。

When you think about the mortgage market. It's -- and we talk about this a lot. It's sort of an under-understood it's not a very transparent market. There's a huge fixed income market, but it's hard for retail investors to gain access to this market, and it's certainly hard for them to gain information about the market. If you don't have a Bloomberg, it's very difficult to find out how mortgages behave.

當你思考抵押貸款市場。這是——我們經常談論這個問題。這是一個不為人所理解的市場，它並不是一個非常透明的市場。固定收益市場規模龐大，但散戶很難進入這個市場，也很難獲得有關該市場的資訊。如果沒有彭博終端，就很難了解房貸的走勢。

And when you think about mortgage performance, there's really just one benchmark out there. It's an important benchmark. It's the Bloomberg Mortgage index. It represents the entire, what is it, $9 trillion universe. So it has a very different characteristic than sort of certain aspects of the market.

而當你考慮抵押貸款表現時，實際上只有一個衡量標準。這是一個重要的里程碑。這是彭博抵押貸款指數。它代表了整個價值9兆美元的宇宙。所以它與市場的某些方面有著非常不同的特徵。

I'd point that out because if you look at the index, the aggregate index, Bloomberg index, the average coupon on the outstanding universe is around 3.5%. So if an investor invests in a bond fund and is gaining exposure to the mortgage market, they're getting it because that bond fund is buying that index of exposure, and they're getting an average coupon of around 3.5%.

我之所以指出這一點，是因為如果你看一下指數，綜合指數，彭博指數，你會發現未償付債券的平均票息約為 3.5%。因此，如果投資者投資於債券基金並獲得抵押貸款市場敞口，那是因為該債券基金購買了該敞口指數，而他們獲得了約 3.5% 的平均票息。

But there's no index that shows, well, if you want to just go out and buy a production coupon, a newly originated mortgage coupon this month, what are the characteristics of that? So we created an index that rebalances every month, right, Sean, rebalances every month. That is the right mix between the two coupons that will center around the par coupon.

但是，目前還沒有任何指標可以顯示，如果您只想購買一張生產優惠券，一張本月新發放的抵押貸款優惠券，那麼它的特點是什麼？所以我們創建了一個每月重新平衡的指數，對吧，肖恩，每月重新平衡。這是兩款優惠券之間的最佳組合，將以標準優惠券為核心。

And the yield associated with that PAR coupon, that, for example, today is 5%. So it's a way for investors to gain some more information. We gave you the whole history of performance on it. It's on our website, so you don't need Bloomberg terminal. And it's just our way of trying to bring transparency give investors more to look at, more to understand, maybe it can be used for some other measures -- there is one ETF out there, for example, that is a current coupon ETF.

而與該 PAR 票息相關的收益率，例如，今天的收益率為 5%。所以這是投資者獲取更多資訊的一種方式。我們已經向您詳細介紹了它的全部性能歷史記錄。它就在我們的網站上，所以您不需要彭博終端機。這只是我們嘗試提高透明度的一種方式，讓投資者有更多可以查看、更多可以理解的信息，也許還可以用於其他一些措施——例如，目前市面上就有一隻 ETF，它是一隻當前票息 ETF。

That's a great way for investors to gain access to this power price production coupon. So we just did it because we thought -- more information is better, ultimately with more information, we can hopefully attract more investors to this fixed income asset class.

對於投資者來說，這是獲得這種電力價格生產優惠券的好方法。我們這樣做是因為我們認為——資訊越多越好，最終，有了更多信息，我們有望吸引更多投資者進入這一固定收益資產類別。

Okay. Interesting. Thank you.

好的。有趣的。謝謝。

Doug Harter, UBS.

道格·哈特，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, good morning It's actually Marisa Lobo on for Doug today. If you could talk to us about your view of optimal leverage in the current spread and ball environment?

謝謝，早安。今天代替道格主持節目的是瑪麗莎·洛博。您能否和我們談談您對目前球路和球數環境下最佳槓桿的看法？

Yes. Yes. Well, I would say right now, as you look at our leverage, we're sort of operating right where we have normally been. It's -- it was a little higher at times when mortgages were cheaper, we're back to around 7.5 times leverage, as Bernie mentioned, I think that's a good place to be. I think at that leverage, we have the ability given where mortgages are priced today to generate really attractive returns that are consistent with our dividend.

是的。是的。嗯，就目前而言，從我們的槓桿率來看，我們的營運狀況和往常差不多。——在抵押貸款比較便宜的時候，槓桿率會更高一些，現在又回到了大約 7.5 倍的水平，正如伯尼所提到的那樣，我認為這是一個很好的水平。我認為，以目前的槓桿水平，考慮到抵押貸款的定價，我們有能力產生與我們的股息相符的、極具吸引力的回報。

So this is not an environment that requires us to stretch from a leverage perspective. We certainly have a lot of capacity. Bernie mentioned the fact that we had $7.2 billion of unencumbered cash, which is 66% of our equity. So we have a lot of flexibility. And what I would just say is that given all that flexibility and given all the considerations and the factors that we are looking at, as they evolve, over the next couple of months.

所以，這並不是一個需要我們從槓桿角度擴張的環境。我們當然有很大的產能。伯尼提到，我們有 72 億美元的未抵押現金，占我們股本的 66%。所以我們有很大的靈活性。我想說的是，考慮到所有這些靈活性，以及​​我們正在考慮的所有因素，以及在接下來的幾個月中它們的發展變化。

Those factors will inform whether or not we want to continue to operate with this leverage or higher leverage or lower leverage. But certainly at this level, we have a lot of capacity, a lot of flexibility, and we're able to generate really attractive returns.

這些因素將決定我們是否要繼續以目前的槓桿率運營，或提高槓桿率，或降低槓桿率。但就目前這個層面而言，我們擁有很大的產能、很大的彈性，並且能夠產生非常可觀的回報。

Got it. Thank you. And I know you touched on this with Trevor's question. But what do you see as the biggest near-term risk to your constructive view on spreads?

知道了。謝謝。我知道你在回答特雷弗的問題時也提到了這一點。但您認為對您對價差的建設性觀點而言，近期最大的風險是什麼？

Yes. Well, I would say they're sort of the macroeconomic ones. I mean, obviously, if something changed significantly in Fiscal Policy, for example, that flowed through to inflation outlook that those would be not priced into the market. And then if there's something that causes inflation to go up and volatility to go up and the Fed to have to pause again, those would be factors that would put pressure on fixed income generally and on Agency MBS specifically. So those would -- those has to -- I think at this point, they're the sort of the big macroeconomic forces.

是的。嗯，我覺得它們算是宏觀經濟方面的問題。我的意思是，很顯然，如果財政政策發生重大變化，例如，這會影響通膨前景，而這些變化不會反映在市場價格中。如果出現導致通膨上升、波動性上升，迫使聯準會再次暫停升息的情況，這些因素將對固定收益市場，特別是機構抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）構成壓力。所以這些——這些必須是——我認為在這一點上，它們是主要的宏觀經濟力量。

Something happens significantly in the tariff outlook or for some reason, the Fed believes that the inflation outlook has changed dramatically that they'll have to change course. But that change in inflation outlook would have to be really, I think, very significant probably not tariff-related because the tariffs seem to be now viewed at the Fed as being a level price change, not as an ongoing tariff or inflation pressure.

關稅前景發生重大變化，或由於某種原因，聯準會認為通膨前景發生了巨大變化，他們不得不改變政策方向。但我認為，通膨前景的這種變化必須非常顯著，而且可能與關稅無關，因為聯準會現在似乎將關稅視為價格水準的變化，而不是持續的關稅或通膨壓力。

So it would have to be something along those lines, and that inflation pressure would have to exceed and outweigh the weakening that is clearly apparent in the labor market, which the Fed is going to have to respond to.

所以情況必然會類似這樣，通膨壓力必須超過並抵消勞動市場明顯疲軟的局面，而聯準會將不得不對此做出反應。

Thanks for taking my questions.

謝謝您回答我的問題。

Kenneth Lee, RBC Capital Markets.

Kenneth Lee，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Morning, thanks for taking my question. Just one for me. And then I think you touched upon this briefly. In terms of the hedges, net duration gap didn't change that much. Is the thinking here that it could potentially be more positive over the near term as you look to get more down rate protection, but just wanted to get your thoughts around that.

早上好，謝謝您回答我的問題。我只留一個。然後，我想你剛才也簡要地提到了這一點。就對沖而言，淨久期缺口並沒有太大變化。這裡的想法是，短期內可能會更積極，因為可以獲得更多的首付保護，但我只是想聽聽你對此的看法。

Yes. Well, we certainly would like to operate with a -- maybe a slightly larger duration gap than we have today. I think today was a 2.2 duration gap right now. So it's not very substantial. But then again, the 10-year rate is at 4%or a little bit below 4%.

是的。當然，我們希望能夠比現在的時間間隔稍長。我認為今天的時長缺口目前是 2.2。所以它並不十分重要。但話說回來，10 年期利率為 4% 或略低於 4%。

And just from a -- just from a rate perspective, I think the nearer-term risk for the 10-year rate is that it's a little higher, not a little lower. So I think there could be at a point in time where we want to operate with a higher duration gap, but at a little bit below 4%, it may not be right now.

僅從利率角度來看，我認為 10 年期公債利率的近期風險是略高，而不是略低。所以我認為，在某個時候，我們可能會希望採用更高的持續時間間隔，但略低於 4% 的間隔現在可能還不合適。

Got you. Very helpful there. That's all I had. Thanks again.

抓到你了。那方面幫了我很大的忙。這就是我全部的家當。再次感謝。

Harsh Hemnani, Green Street.

哈什·赫姆納尼，格林街。

Thank you. You touched on this in the prepared remarks a little bit, but there's two ways to manage that down rate risk. The first is asset selection, as you mentioned and the second with the path you took this quarter was maybe expanding TBAs and getting outright convexity hedges.

謝謝。您在準備好的發言稿中稍微提到了這一點，但有兩種方法可以管理利率下降的風險。正如您所提到的，第一點是資產選擇；第二點，根據您本季採取的策略，可能是擴大TBA規模並獲得直接的凸性對沖。

Given that you've deployed all the capital you raised in, call it, the second quarter and third quarter, was this sort of a decision driven by sizing at all in the sense that it might be harder for you to use those specified pools in the market at this time or at the speed you would like to. Anything on that front in terms of space.

鑑於您已將籌集的所有資金投入到第二季度和第三季度，這種決定是否受到規模因素的驅動，因為您可能難以在當前市場或以您希望的速度使用這些指定的資金池。空間方面的一切事宜。

Yes. No, it's a really good question, Harsh. Thank you. You're right. So quite often, as I mentioned, when we raise capital, we want to deploy it sort of immediately. And so we do that by buying generic kind of mortgages, TBAs or production coupons that have the most negative convexity, if you will.

是的。不，哈什，你問的確實是個好問題。謝謝。你說得對。所以，正如我剛才提到的，我們經常在籌集資金時，都希望立即將其投入使用。因此，我們透過購買一般類型的抵押貸款、TBA 或生產性債券來實現這一點，這些債券的負凸性最大。

But what's important is that over time, we continue to refine and upgrade, if you will, our asset composition. And there's lots of opportunities and capacity to do that. In the third quarter, for example, what you don't see in our overall numbers is that we actively rotate out of certain specified pools into new specified pools as those opportunities arise as the GSEs, for example, sell new specified pools.

但重要的是，隨著時間的推移，我們會不斷改進和升級我們的資產組合。而且有很多機會和能力可以做到這一點。例如，在第三季度，您在我們的整體數據中看不到的是，隨著政府支持企業（GSE）出售新的指定資產池等機會的出現，我們會積極地將某些指定資產池的資金輪換到新的指定資產池中。

Just to put a number on that in the third quarter, about $8 billion of our specified pools rotated and changed into different specified pools that had slightly different characteristics that we preferred more than our existing holdings. So that optimization happens all the time in our portfolio, and that is an important source of alpha generation for us.

僅舉一例，第三季我們約有 80 億美元的指定資金池進行了輪換，並轉移到了我們更喜歡的、具有略微不同特徵的指定資金池，而不是我們現有的持倉。因此，我們的投資組合一直在進行最佳化，這是我們獲得超額收益的重要來源。

And I think that there's lots of capacity to do that. It does take some time months and quarters, but you can do that in significant size on a regular basis. And so what you'll likely see us because we are always trying to give ourselves greater down rate protection, particularly in the current environment. You'll see us rotate out of those generic pools as opportunities arise into specified pools with certain characteristics that we think are beneficial in the current environment could relate to credit. It could relate to LTV, I could relate to HPA in certain areas, lots of little factors can have a big impact on the refinanceability of a mortgage.

我認為我們完全有能力做到這一點。這確實需要幾個月甚至幾個季度的時間，但你可以定期地進行相當規模的嘗試。因此，您可能會看到我們，因為我們一直在努力為自己提供更大的首付保障，尤其是在當前環境下。你會看到，隨著機會的出現，我們會從那些通用資金池輪換到具有特定特徵的資金池，我們認為這些特徵在當前環境下是有益的，可能與信貸有關。這可能與貸款價值比 (LTV) 有關，在某些方面也可能與房屋抵押貸款利率 (HPA) 有關，許多小因素都會對抵押貸款的再融資能力產生重大影響。

Got it, that's helpful. That was it for me. Thank you.

明白了，這很有幫助。對我來說，一切都就此結束了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯·喬治，KBW。

Good morning. Actually, a couple of little things for me. Peter, you mentioned the $0.05 tailwind. What's the time frame for that? Is that sort of looking at the forward curve and by the time the Fed is done? Or just any color on that?

早安.其實，對我來說有幾件小事。彼得，你提到了0.05美元的順風。需要多長時間？那是不是指觀察遠期曲線，看看聯準會何時完成作業？或隨便塗個什麼顏色都行？

Well, the $0.05 -- the way I calculated the $0.05 that was -- you think about that is that was the drag if short-term rates instead of being at 4.43, were reflected basically at about 100 basis point difference. So it is then short-term rates going to the neutral rate.

嗯，這 0.05 美元——我計算這 0.05 美元的方式是——你想想，如果短期利率不是 4.43，而是大約 100 個基點的差異，那麼這就是拖累因素。因此，短期利率將趨向中性利率。

So if that were to happen, for example, over the next, let's say, six months, that would be that $0.05 would occur over that time period. So it all depends on the pace with which the Fed lowers the short-term rates or the pace with which we which we term out that short-term debt into swaps at the comparable rate.

例如，如果這種情況發生，例如在接下來的六個月裡，那麼在這段時間內就會產生 0.05 美元。所以，這一切都取決於聯準會降低短期利率的速度，或者我們以相當的利率將短期債務轉換為互換的速度。

Okay. Yes, that makes sense. And then in terms of -- to these spreads tighten further, I mean is that a good thing or a bad thing? It obviously takes up your book value, but does it make it harder to cover the dividend? Or does the math still work since you're getting the lower ROE just kind of higher dollar amount of equity.

好的。是的，這很有道理。那麼，就這些價差進一步收窄而言，我的意思是，這到底是好事還是壞事呢？這顯然會影響帳面價值，但這是否會使支付股利變得更加困難？或者說，即使淨資產收益率較低，但權益金額較高，這種計算方法仍然有效嗎？

Well, you're right in that -- if the entire change of our book value is due to spreads, then from an investor perspective, they get the benefit, the same economics of the benefit. So if spreads stay where they are, for example, then there's no change in our book value and the future earnings stay strong.

沒錯，你說的對——如果帳面價值的全部變化都是由於價差造成的，那麼從投資者的角度來看，他們就獲得了好處，獲得了同樣的經濟利益。例如，如果價差保持不變，那麼我們的帳面價值就不會發生變化，未來的收益也將保持強勁。

Conversely, if the only thing that changes is that spreads tighten, then our book value goes up by the present value of those earnings that you give up. So from an investor perspective, you're sort of indifferent from a return perspective, you're going to get the same economics of the return whether it's in the form of future earnings or in book value appreciation.

反之，如果唯一的變化是利差收窄，那麼我們的帳面價值就會增加，增加的幅度就是你放棄的那些收益的現值。所以從投資人的角度來看，從回報的角度來看，你其實並不在意，無論回報是以未來收益的形式還是以帳面價值增值的形式出現，你都會得到相同的經濟回報。

From that point forward, then the dividend yield on our book value would be lower. The return on our portfolio would be lower, but they would still be aligned. And from an investor perspective, they would have gotten the same economic benefit all in.

從那時起，我們帳面價值的股息殖利率就會降低。我們的投資組合回報率會降低，但它們仍然會保持一致。從投資者的角度來看，他們最終都會獲得同樣的經濟利益。

Okay. Makes sense. I just one more on spread. To the extent -- and you noted that QT is likely done fairly soon. But to the extent the Fed is continuing to run off Agency MBS and reinvesting in treasuries, does that create potential spread risk just of widening of spreads versus treasuries.

好的。有道理。我再加一個。就此而言——而且你也指出了，QT 可能很快就會結束。但是，如果聯準會繼續拋售機構抵押貸款支持證券並重新投資於國債，這是否會造成利差擴大的潛在風險，即抵押貸款支持證券與國債之間的利差擴大？

Yes. Chairman Powell actually talked about this just a couple of days ago in his meeting where he indicated that they were essentially at the turning point for the balance sheet and that they were going to end the runoff. And now I think it's become clear that they are. It's -- right now, they continue to -- he, for example, continued to reference the outstanding guidance which is that they intend to hold primarily treasury securities. What they haven't defined for the market, and this is important for the mortgage outlook, is what primarily means.

是的。鮑威爾主席幾天前在會議上確實談到了這一點，他表示，資產負債表基本上已經到了轉折點，他們即將結束資金短缺。現在我認為很明顯，他們的確如此。目前，他們仍在繼續這樣做——例如，他繼續提及尚未出台的指導意見，即他們打算主要持有國債。他們尚未向市場明確定義，而這對抵押貸款前景至關重要的是，其主要意義是什麼。

You can make the case that primarily means 95% or primarily might mean 60%. I don't know, and that's an important distinction. But he said that they will study that and they will they will clarify that. And certainly, they have a clear mandate to whatever they do with respect to runoff, do so in a way that does not create instability in the market, and he mentioned that.

你可以說「主要」意味著 95%，也可以說「主要」可能意味著 60%。我不知道，而這恰恰是重要的區別。但他表示，他們會研究這個問題，並會澄清這一點。當然，他們在徑流處理方面有明確的授權，即以不造成市場不穩定的方式進行處理，他也提到了這一點。

So I don't expect them to do anything with respect to the mortgage portfolio that would destabilize the market. And right now, the runoff pace of the Fed's balance sheet, about $200 billion a year, is certainly an amount of mortgages the private sector can handle those mortgages will get redeployed into treasury. So I think there's still some discussion and outlook there that might change with respect to the balance sheet and the composition.

因此，我不認為他們會在抵押貸款組合方面採取任何可能擾亂市場的行動。而目前，聯準會資產負債表的縮減速度約為每年 2,000 億美元，這筆抵押貸款的金額當然是私部門能夠承受的，這些抵押貸款將被重新部署到國債中。所以我認為，關於資產負債表和組成方面，仍然存在一些討論和展望，這些討論和展望可能會發生變化。

And ultimately, as we talked about, that could be a lever that -- the government believes is an important one that would actually improve mortgage affordability by changing that composition to include mortgages. And if that were the case, that would certainly put downward pressure on mortgage spreads and downward pressure on the mortgage rate.

最後，正如我們所討論的那樣，這可能是一個重要的槓桿——政府認為，透過改變貸款結構，將抵押貸款納入其中，實際上可以提高抵押貸款的負擔能力。如果情況真是如此，那肯定會對抵押貸款利差和抵押貸款利率造成下行壓力。

Okay. Great, thanks.

好的。太好了，謝謝。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

Eric Hagen，BTIG。

Hey, good morning guys, thanks for squeezing me in. Can you walk through the approach behind raising the preferred stock and how much leverage in the capital structure you feel like you're comfortable taking both maybe in the near and longer term. And just generally, I mean, what are the variables that you consider to raise preferred stock is like a substitute for common stock.

嘿，各位早安，謝謝你們抽出時間陪我。您能否詳細說明增發優先股背後的方法，以及您認為在短期和長期內，您在資本結構中可以接受的槓桿程度？一般來說，我的意思是，在考慮發行優先股（類似普通股的替代品）時，你會考慮哪些變數？

Sure. Yes. The transaction that we did, it was nice to be able to access that market. So was last time it was like we shut off for really five years out of that market. So I mean, that market has been dormant for a good four years.

當然。是的。我們進行的這筆交易，讓我們有機會進入那個市場，感覺很棒。上次也是如此，我們好像真的退出那個市場了五年之久。我的意思是，這個市場已經沉寂了整整四年。

So I think it was important to reopen that market. I think we were the second transaction to get done in that market. And it was a really -- from our perspective, when you think about -- it was a higher coupon than what we had issued previously. But consistent with where the breakevens, if you will, with respect to our floating rate were so it's 8.75% coupon on that transaction, it was traded really well in the aftermarket -- so we're really happy with it. And that 8.5% coupon is what you want to think about from the economics from a common shareholder is if we can turn around and take that -- those proceeds from the preferred lever that the way we lever it.

所以我認為重新開放這個市場非常重要。我認為我們是那個市場完成的第二筆交易。從我們的角度來看，仔細想想，這確實是一張比我們之前發行的更高的優惠券。但就我們的浮動利率而言，盈虧平衡點（即該交易的票面利率為 8.75%）與此一致，該交易在二級市場表現非常出色——所以我們對此非常滿意。而對於一般股東來說，從經濟學的角度來看，你需要考慮的是，我們能否扭轉局面，利用優先股的槓桿效應，獲得 8.5% 的票息。

Then that means that we're going to generate a return, let's just say, make it simple as like 16%. There's 9 extra percent of carry that's going to accrue to the benefit of our common shareholders. So we pushed up, we wanted to issue that, and we pushed up our overall percent of preferred. I think after that transaction, it's around 18% of our overall capital mix.

這意味著我們將獲得回報，比如說，16%。我們的普通股股東將額外獲得 9% 的收益分成。所以我們提高了發行比例，我們想發行優先股，我們也提高了優先股的整體比例。我認為在那筆交易之後，它約占我們整體資本結構的 18%。

So we feel like that's a good sort of relative mix in our capital structure. It could be a little higher. It has been a little higher. I think at some points in our past 22% to 25% was about the highest it's been. So we have a little bit of flexibility there. But certainly, we want to take advantage of the reopening of this market because we do believe, and Bernie mentioned this is another reason why there's additional earnings that will accrue to the benefit of our common shareholders because of that preferred.

因此，我們認為這是我們資本結構中較好的相對組合。可能還會更高一些。它之前略高一些。我認為在過去的某些時期，22%到25%左右是最高水準。所以我們在這方面有一定的彈性。當然，我們希望利用市場重新開放的機會，因為我們相信，而且伯尼也提到過，這也是優先股將為我們的普通股股東帶來額外收益的另一個原因。

Yeah. I appreciate you guys very much. Thank you.

是的。非常感謝你們。謝謝。

Jason Weaver, Jones Trading.

Jason Weaver，Jones Trading。

Hey, good morning, thanks for taking my question. Can you talk a little bit about how you see risk in those higher coupon 30s in the 6% and 6.5% range. I think a bit under half are spec, but what specific type of collateral protection are you focusing on there?

嘿，早上好，謝謝你回答我的問題。您能否談談您如何看待票面利率在 6% 到 6.5% 範圍內的 30 天高息債券的風險？我認為其中不到一半是投機性投資，但你們主要關注的是哪種類型的抵押品保護？

Yes. No, that's really -- it's an important point. And that's one of the reasons why we give you a table that shows like what we call high-quality prepayment characteristics and that's what you're referencing there. But there are other characteristics that we seek that aren't just low loan balance, for example, that are categorized there that have other prepayment protection. So was in the back of our presentation.

是的。不，這確實是──這是一個很重要的觀點。這也是我們向您提供一張表格的原因之一，該表格顯示了我們所說的高品質預付款特徵，而您在那裡引用的就是這個表格。但我們追求的不僅是低貸款餘額，例如，還有其他一些特徵，例如其他提前還款保障，這些特徵也屬於此類。所以，他就在我們簡報的後面。

But that's why I talk about 76% of our portfolio has other characteristics. So with respect to those higher coupons, we end up -- yes. We end up with -- on page 8, we give a breakdown, we say 39% high-quality prepayment characteristics and 37% of other characteristics.

但這就是為什麼我要說我們投資組合中有 76% 具有其他特點。所以對於那些更高的優惠券，我們最終的結果是——是的。最後，我們在第 8 頁給出了細分數據，其中 39% 為高品質預付款特徵，37% 為其他特徵。

Well, those other characteristics matter a lot. They could be loan age and they could be credit and they could be FICO and they could be geography, and they could be certain MSAs, all those kinds of things come together. But with respect to our higher coupons, almost 100% of those higher coupons, I think it's in thehigh90s -- have some sort of embedded prepayment characteristics that we like.

嗯，其他那些特點也很重要。它們可能是貸款年限、信用狀況、FICO 評分、地理位置，也可能是某些大都會統計區，所有這些因素都結合在一起。但就我們較高的優惠券而言，幾乎 100% 的較高優惠券（我認為都在 90% 以上）都具有我們喜歡的某種嵌入式預付款特性。

So even though we do have some higher coupons and they are exposed to prepayment risk, particularly in this environment, like we talked about, -- we are also very cognizant of the characteristics of those pools. And can we source pools that have characteristics that we believe will give us more stability in those cash flows. So that's the way we kind of look at that.

因此，儘管我們有一些較高的票息，並且它們面臨提前還款風險，尤其是在這種環境下，正如我們之前討論過的，——我們也非常清楚這些資金池的特點。我們能否找到一些具有我們認為能夠為我們提供更穩定現金流的特性的資金池？所以，我們大概就是這樣看待這個問題的。

But we did rotate down, as I mentioned, in coupon. So we do have a smaller exposure to the higher coupons and the ones that we do still have in our portfolio have characteristics that we like.

但正如我之前提到的，我們在優惠券方面確實進行了輪換。因此，我們對高利息債券的投資較少，而且我們投資組合中仍然持有的債券都具有我們喜歡的特性。

That's helpful. And then maybe one more for Bernie. I know you gave an unchanged book value estimate to date, but can you give me any sense of the level of liquidity into October and whether it's substantially different from your cash on hand at quarter end?

那很有幫助。然後或許再給伯尼一票。我知道您迄今為止給出的帳面價值估算保持不變，但您能否告訴我10月份的流動性水平，以及它與您季度末的現金餘額是否有實質性差異？

Sure. Yes, we -- our liquidity is largely unchanged since quarter end.

當然。是的，我們的流動性自季度末以來基本上保持不變。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

We have now completed the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Peter Federico for concluding remarks. Please go ahead.

問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給彼得·費德里科先生，請他作總結發言。請繼續。

Well, again, I appreciate everybody taking the time to join our call today. We are certainly happy to be able to deliver the results that we did in the third quarter. In fact, I think the third quarter may have been one of the our fourth best quarter over the last 10 years. So we're certainly pleased to be able to deliver that for shareholders.

再次感謝大家今天抽出時間參加我們的電話會議。我們非常高興能夠在第三季取得這樣的業績。事實上，我認為第三季可能是我們過去 10 年中業績第四好的季度之一。因此，我們非常高興能夠為股東們帶來這樣的成果。

And as I mentioned, we continue to be optimistic about the outlook for the agency market and for our business. So we look forward to speaking to you again at the end of the fourth quarter, sometime in January.

正如我之前提到的，我們對代理商市場和我們業務的前景仍然保持樂觀。因此，我們期待在第四季末，也就是一月份的某個時候再次與您交談。

Thank you for joining the call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加通話。您現在可以斷開連線了。