AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCM) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) AGNC Investment Corp fourth-quarter 2025 shareholder call.

（音訊播放中）AGNC 投資公司 2025 年第四季股東電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Katie Wisecarver in Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係部的凱蒂·懷斯卡弗。請繼續。

Thank you all for joining AGNC Investment Corp's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call.

感謝各位參加AGNC投資公司2025年第四季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, I'd like to review the Safe Harbor statement.

在開始之前，我想先回顧一下安全港聲明。

This conference call and corresponding slide presentation contains statements that to the extent they are not recitations of historical fact, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are intended to be subject to the safe harbor protection provided by the reform Act. Actual outcomes and results could differ materially from those forecasts due to the impact of many factors beyond the control of AGNC. All forward-looking statements included in this presentation are made only as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice.

本次電話會議及相應的幻燈片簡報中包含一些陳述，這些陳述若非對歷史事實的複述，則構成 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》意義上的前瞻性陳述。所有此類前瞻性陳述均旨在受到改革法案所提供的安全港保護。由於 AGNC 無法控制的許多因素的影響，實際結果可能與這些預測有重大差異。本簡報中包含的所有前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本簡報發布之日的信息，如有更改，恕不另行通知。

Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements are included in AGNC's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Copies are available on the SEC's website at sec.gov. We disclaim any obligation to update our forward-looking statements unless required by law.

AGNC 向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中列出了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異的某些因素。相關文件可於美國證券交易委員會網站sec.gov查閱。除非法律另有規定，否則我們不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。

Participants on the call include Peter Federico, President, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer; Bernie Bell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Sean Reid, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development.

參加電話會議的有總裁、執行長兼首席投資長彼得·費德里科；執行副總裁兼財務長伯尼·貝爾；以及執行副總裁兼策略與企業發展主管肖恩·里德。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Peter Federico.

接下來，我將把電話交給彼得·費德里科。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth-quarter earnings conference call. 2025 was an exceptional year for AGNC shareholders.

各位早安，感謝各位參加我們第四季財報電話會議。 2025年對AGNC股東來說是意義非凡的一年。

AGNC's 11.6% economic return in the fourth quarter drove our impressive full-year economic return of 22.7%. Even more noteworthy, AGNC's total stock return in 2025 was 34.8%, with dividends reinvested, nearly double the performance of the S&P 500. This outstanding performance on an absolute and relative basis clearly demonstrates the value of AGNC's actively managed portfolio of agency mortgage-backed securities and associated hedges.

AGNC 在第四季 11.6% 的經濟回報率推動了我們全年 22.7% 的亮眼經濟回報率。更值得注意的是，AGNC 2025 年的總股票報酬率為 34.8%（股利再投資），幾乎是標準普爾 500 指數表現的兩倍。AGNC 的出色表現，無論從絕對值還是相對值來看，都清楚地表明了其積極管理的機構抵押貸款支持證券及其相關對沖組合的價值。

Looking back, we were confident that AGNC was on the forefront of a uniquely positive investment environment as the Fed's unprecedented tightening cycle of 2022 and 2023 reached its conclusion.

回首過去，我們當時確信，隨著聯準會史無前例的 2022 年和 2023 年緊縮週期接近尾聲，AGNC 處於一個極其積極的投資環境的前沿。

On our third-quarter earnings call in 2023, we expressed our belief that a durable and attractive investment environment for AGNC was emerging as mortgage spreads began to stabilize at historically attractive return levels. That outlook proved to be correct, and in the nine quarters since that call, and despite several episodes of extreme market turbulence, AGNC has generated an economic return of 50% for its shareholders, comprised of a 10% increase in book value and monthly dividends totaling $3.24 per share.

在 2023 年第三季財報電話會議上，我們表示，隨著抵押貸款利差開始穩定在歷史性的、有吸引力的回報水平，我們認為 AGNC 的持久且具有吸引力的投資環境正在形成。事實證明這一預測是正確的，自那次電話會議以來的九個季度裡，儘管經歷了幾次極端的市場動盪，AGNC 仍為其股東創造了 50% 的經濟回報，其中包括賬面價值增長 10% 和每月每股 3.24 美元的股息。

Moreover, during that same time period, AGNC shareholders have experienced a total stock return of nearly 60% or 23% on an annualized basis. And finally since inception, AGNC has generated a total stock return of over 11% on an annualized basis with dividends reinvested, demonstrating the long-term benefit of investing in this unique fixed income asset class and the durability of our business model across a wide range of market environments.

此外，在同一時期，AGNC 股東的總股票報酬率接近 60%，年化報酬率為 23%。最後，自成立以來，AGNC 的股票總回報率（按年計算，股息再投資）超過 11%，這表明投資於這一獨特的固定收益資產類別具有長期收益，並且我們的商業模式在各種市場環境下都具有持久性。

Turning back to 2025, the Bloomberg Aggregate Agency Index was the best performing fixed income sector in the fourth quarter, and for the year, produced a total return of 8.6%. Also noteworthy given the similar credit quality, the agency index outperformed the treasury index by 2.3% points, or 36% in 2025.

回到 2025 年，彭博綜合機構指數是第四季表現最好的固定收益板塊，全年總報酬率為 8.6%。值得注意的是，儘管信用品質相似，但機構債券指數的表現比國債指數高出 2.3 個百分點，到 2025 年將高出 36%。

As I discussed, throughout the year, the favorable performance of agency MBS was driven by a confluence of positive factors. First, the Fed shifted its monetary policy stance toward lower short-term rates and greater accommodation, a promising development for all fixed-income assets. The Fed also transitioned its balance sheet activity from quantitative tightening to reserve management.

正如我之前所討論的，全年以來，機構抵押貸款支持證券的良好表現是由多種積極因素共同推動的。首先，聯準會調整了貨幣政策立場，轉向降低短期利率和加大寬鬆力度，這對所有固定收益資產來說都是一個有希望的發展。聯準會也將資產負債表活動從量化緊縮轉向儲備管理。

Second, interest rate volatility trended lower throughout the year due to the shift in monetary policy, greater fiscal policy clarity, and a stable supply outlook for treasury securities, which included a greater share of short-term debt.

其次，由於貨幣政策的轉變、財政政策的更加明朗以及國債供應前景的穩定（其中包括短期債務佔比更大），全年利率波動呈下降趨勢。

Lastly, the uncertainty and potential risks associated with GSE reform that adversely impacted the agency market early in the year gradually dissipated as the treasury department and other officials communicated an approach to GSE reform that focused on reducing the spread on agency mortgage-backed securities, maintaining mortgage market stability and improving housing affordability.

最後，年初對機構市場造成不利影響的 GSE 改革相關的不確定性和潛在風險，隨著財政部和其他官員傳達了以減少機構抵押貸款支持證券的利差、維持抵押貸款市場穩定和提高住房負擔能力為重點的 GSE 改革方針，逐漸消散。

Collectively, these factors combined with the sizable purchase of MBS by the GSEs later in the year, caused spreads to tighten and drove the substantial outperformance of agency MBS relative to other fixed income asset classes.

綜合來看，這些因素加上政府支援企業在當年稍後大量購買抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS)，導致利差收窄，並推動機構 MBS 相對於其他固定收益資產類別取得顯著優異表現。

As we begin 2026, these favorable macro themes remain in place and provide a constructive investment backdrop for our business. In addition, other positive developments are possible, including further actions by the administration to improve housing affordability. The recent $200-billion MBS purchase announcement is a good example of the type of action that could result in tighter mortgage spreads and lower mortgage rates.

進入 2026 年，這些有利的宏觀主題仍然存在，為我們的業務提供了建設性的投資環境。此外，還可能出現其他積極進展，包括政府採取進一步措施改善住房負擔能力。最近宣布的2000億美元抵押貸款支持證券(MBS)購買計劃就是一個很好的例子，說明這類舉措可能會導致抵押貸款利差收窄和抵押貸款利率下降。

The funding market for agency MBS has also improved in response to the Fed increasing the size of its balance sheet and improving the functionality of its Standing Repo Program. The Fed is also considering other actions to further improve the utility of the Standing Repo Program, which, if implemented, would be highly beneficial to the agency MBS market.

由於聯準會擴大了資產負債表規模並改進了其常備回購計畫的功能，機構抵押貸款支持證券的融資市場也得到了改善。聯準會也正在考慮採取其他措施，進一步提高常備回購計畫的效用。如果這些措施得以實施，將對機構抵押貸款擔保證券市場大有裨益。

Finally, the supply and demand outlook for agency MBS remains well balanced. At current rate levels, the net new supply of agency MBS this year is expected to be about $200 billion. When combined with the Fed's runoff, the private sector will have to absorb about $400 billion of MBS in 2026, an amount similar to the previous two years.

最後，機構抵押貸款擔保證券的供需前景仍保持平衡。以目前的利率水平，預計今年機構抵押貸款支持證券的淨新增供應量約為 2,000 億美元。加上聯準會的減持計劃，到 2026 年，私營部門將不得不吸收約 4,000 億美元的抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS)，這筆金額與前兩年類似。

On the demand side of the equation, however, the investor base today is more diversified and positioned to expand with GSE purchases potentially consuming about half of this year's supply. At the same time, bank, money manager, foreign investor, and REIT demand should all remain strong.

然而，從需求方面來看，如今的投資者基礎更加多元化，並且有能力擴大規模，GSE 的購買可能會消耗今年供應量的一半左右。同時，銀行、資金管理公司、外國投資者和房地產投資信託基金的需求都應該保持強勁。

Pulling this all together, the underlying fundamental and technical backdrop for agency mortgage-backed securities continues to be favorable and supportive of our positive outlook. Moreover, as the largest pure play agency mortgage REIT, we believe AGNC is very well positioned to generate compelling risk-adjusted returns with a substantial yield component for our shareholders.

綜上所述，機構抵押貸款支持證券的基本面和技術面依然有利，這支撐了我們積極的展望。此外，作為最大的純粹的機構抵押貸款 REIT，我們相信 AGNC 完全有能力為我們的股東創造具有可觀收益成分的、令人信服的風險調整後回報。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Bernie Bell to discuss our financial performance.

接下來，我將把電話交給伯尼·貝爾，讓他來討論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

For the fourth quarter, AGNC reported comprehensive income of $0.89 per common share. Our economic return on tangible common equity was 11.6% for the quarter, consisting of $0.36 of dividends declared per common share and a $0.60 increase in tangible net book value per share, driven by lower interest rate volatility and tighter mortgage spreads to benchmark interest rates.

AGNC第四季公佈的綜合收益為每股普通股0.89美元。本季度，我們的有形普通股經濟回報率為 11.6%，其中包括每股普通股派發 0.36 美元的股息，以及每股有形淨帳面價值增加 0.60 美元，這主要得益於利率波動性降低和抵押貸款與基準利率之間的利差收窄。

As Peter mentioned, our full-year economic return was 22.7%, reflecting our monthly dividend totaling $1.44 per common share and a $0.47 increase in tangible netbook value per share. As of late last week, our tangible netbook value for common share was up about 4% for January or 3% net of our monthly dividend accrual.

正如彼得所提到的，我們全年的經濟回報率為 22.7%，這反映了我們每月每股普通股 1.44 美元的股息總額以及每股有形淨帳面價值增加 0.47 美元。截至上週末，我們1月普通股的有形淨帳面價值成長了約4%，扣除每月股息提列後成長了約3%。

We ended the fourth quarter with leverage of 7.2 times tangible equity, down from 7.6 times at the end of the third quarter. Average leverage for the fourth quarter was 7.4 times compared to 7.5 times in the third quarter. In addition, we concluded the quarter with a very strong liquidity position of $7.6 billion in cash and unencumbered agency MBS, representing 64% of tangible equity.

第四季末，我們的槓桿率為有形權益的 7.2 倍，低於第三季末的 7.6 倍。第四季平均槓桿率為 7.4 倍，而第三季為 7.5 倍。此外，本季末，我們擁有非常強勁的流動性，現金和未受限制的機構抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 達 76 億美元，佔有形權益的 64%。

Net spread in dollar all income was unchanged for the quarter at $0.35 per common share, which includes a penny per share of expense related to year-end incentive compensation accrual adjustments.

本季以美元計價的淨收益與上季持平，每股普通股收益為 0.35 美元，其中包括與年末激勵性薪酬提列調整相關的每股 1 美分費用。

An important driver of our net spread in dollar roll income is the level of unhedged short-term debt in our funding mix as well as the composition of our hedge portfolio. As of the end of the fourth quarter, our hedge ratio was 77%, reflecting the level of swap and treasury hedges relative to total funding liabilities and was unchanged from the prior quarter.

影響我們美元展期收入淨利差的重要因素是我們融資組合中未對沖短期債務的水平以及對沖組合的組成。截至第四季末，我們的對沖比率為 77%，反映了互換和國債對沖相對於總融資負債的水平，與上一季相比沒有變化。

At the same time, during the fourth quarter, we opportunistically shifted our hedge mix toward a greater proportion of interest rate swaps. As a result, a meaningful portion of our funding remains short-term and variable rate. This is consistent with the current more accommodative monetary policy environment and positions net spread and dollar roll income to benefit as additional rate cuts occur.

同時，在第四季度，我們抓住機會，調整了對沖組合，增加了利率互換的比例。因此，我們相當一部分的資金仍然是短期和浮動利率。這與當前較為寬鬆的貨幣政策環境相符，並有望在進一步降息時使淨利差和美元滾動收入受益。

Looking ahead, we expect that lower funding costs from the October and December rate cuts and anticipated future rate cuts increased stability and funding markets resulting from recent Fed actions to maintain short-term rates within their target range. And the shift in our hedge mix toward a greater share of swap-based hedges will collectively provide a moderate tailwind to net spread and dollar roll income.

展望未來，我們預計 10 月和 12 月的降息以及預期的未來降息將降低融資成本，從而提高聯準會為將短期利率維持在目標範圍內而採取的行動所帶來的穩定性和融資市場。我們將對沖組合轉向更大比例的互換對沖，這將共同為淨利差和美元展期收入帶來適度的利好。

The average projected Life CPR of our portfolio increased 100 basis points to 9.6% at quarter end from 8.6% in the prior quarter due to lower mortgage rates. Actual CPRs averaged 9.7% for the quarter compared to 8.3% in the prior quarter.

由於抵押貸款利率下降，我們投資組合的平均預期終身資本回報率 (Life CPR) 從上一季的 8.6% 上升 100 個基點至季度末的 9.6%。本季實際 CPR 平均值為 9.7%，而上一季為 8.3%。

Lastly, during the fourth quarter, we issued $356 million of common equity through our at the market offering program at a significant premium to tangible book value per share. This brought total accretive common equity issuances for the year to approximately $2 billion and delivered exceptional book value accretion for our common shareholders.

最後，在第四季度，我們透過市場發行計畫發行了 3.56 億美元的普通股，發行價格較每股有形帳面價值有顯著溢價。這使得本年度增值普通股發行總額達到約 20 億美元，並為我們的普通股股東帶來了卓越的帳面價值成長。

And with that, I'll now turn our call back over to Peter.

那麼，現在我將把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Bernie. Before opening the call up to questions, I would like to provide a brief review of our portfolio.

謝謝你，伯尼。在正式開始問答環節之前，我想先簡單回顧一下我們的產品組合。

Agency spreads to both treasury and swap rates tightened across the coupon stack, especially on intermediate coupons as interest rate and spread volatility remained low and the demand for MBS, particularly from the GSEs, accelerated.

由於利率和利差波動性保持低位，且對抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）的需求（尤其是來自政府支持企業的需求）加速增長，機構債券與國債和互換利率之間的利差在整個票息結構中收窄，尤其是中期票息債券。

Hedge composition was also an important driver of performance as swap spreads on 5- and 10-year swaps widened significantly during the quarter. This favorable move in swap spreads followed the announcement of the Fed's revised supplemental leverage ratio requirement and the Fed's actions to ease repo funding pressure.

對沖組合也是績效的重要驅動因素，因為本季 5 年期和 10 年期互換的互換利差大幅擴大。在聯準會宣布修訂補充槓桿率要求以及採取措施緩解回購融資壓力後，互換利差出現了這種有利的走勢。

As a result, agency MBS hedged with longer dated swap-based hedges performed considerably better than positions hedged with treasury-based hedges. Our asset portfolio totaled $95 billion at quarter end, up about $4 billion from the prior quarter as we fully deployed our new capital that we raised during the quarter.

因此，採用期限較長的互換對沖進行對沖的機構抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 的表現明顯優於採用國債對沖進行對沖的頭寸。截至季末，我們的資產組合總額為 950 億美元，比上一季增加了約 40 億美元，因為我們已將本季籌集的新資金全部投入使用。

The percentage of our assets with some form of favorable prepayment attribute remained steady at 76%, while the weighted average coupon on our portfolio fell slightly to 5.12%. Consistent with the growth in our asset portfolio, the notional balance of our hedge portfolio increased to $59 billion at quarter end. The composition of our portfolio also shifted to a greater share of swap-based hedges. In duration dollar terms, our allocation to swap-based hedges increased to 70% of our portfolio from 59% the prior quarter. In light of our more favorable outlook for swap spreads, we will likely operate with a greater share of swap-based hedges in our hedge mix, particularly once short-term rates near the Fed's long-run neutral rate.

具有某種形式的有利提前還款屬性的資產百分比保持穩定在 76%，而我們投資組合的加權平均票息略微下降至 5.12%。與我們的資產組合成長一致，截至季度末，我們的對沖組合名義餘額增加至 590 億美元。我們的投資組合組成也轉向了更大比例的互換對沖。以美元計價，我們基於互換的對沖工具的投資組合配置比例從上一季的 59% 增加到 70%。鑑於我們對互換利差的預期更為樂觀，我們可能會在對沖組合中採用更大比例的互換對沖策略，尤其是在短期利率接近聯準會長期中性利率之後。

With that, we'll now open the call up to your questions.

接下來，我們將開放問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Bose George, KBW.

博斯·喬治，KBW。

If you first just can you just talk about where you see spreads currently, versus where you saw it in the fourth quarter. And then just help us walk through the different the dividend coverage. Spreads are obviously tighter, but you got more capital with higher book value. Just help us do the math there.

首先，請您談談您目前看到的價差情況，以及與第四季度相比的價差情況。然後請您幫我們了解不同的股利覆蓋範圍。利差顯然收窄了，但更高的帳面價值也帶來了更多的資金。請幫我們算一下。

Sure, yeah, thanks for the question. I figured that would be one of the first questions.

當然，謝謝你的提問。我猜這會是大家最早提出的問題之一。

I'll start with the outlook in terms of ROE and spreads. Obviously, as you point out, spreads have tightened a lot, and I think maybe the best way to describe the current environment, and this is essentially what happened in the fourth quarter, is that mortgage spreads, I think, have now sort of entered a new spread range. We broke through the range that we have talked about for a long time, really the range that has held for almost three years, which is really beneficial to our business and drove the outstanding results that we had in -- really the last two years and in 2025 in particular.

我先從淨資產收益率和利差方面展望一下前景。顯然，正如你所指出的，利差已經收窄了很多，我認為描述當前環境的最佳方式，也是第四季度發生的情況，就是抵押貸款利差現在已經進入了一個新的利差範圍。我們突破了我們長期以來一直在談論的範圍，實際上是近三年來一直保持的範圍，這對我們的業務非常有利，並推動了我們在過去兩年，特別是 2025 年取得的傑出成果。

But I would say as we sit here today, Bose, when I think about current coupon spreads to a blend of swap and treasury rates, let me give you the -- I usually think about things across the curve. I would say that the potential spread for current coupon to swaps is maybe in the 120 to 160 range. And right now we're just sort of right in the middle of that range, maybe a little bit through it, so calling in the 135-ish type range. I don't know where exactly it is this morning, but I would say that's the potential new range for mortgages relative to swaps and on a current coupon basis to treasuries, I would say it's probably in the 90 to 130 basis point range. And today I think the numbers are around 110 when you think about it across the curve.

但我想說的是，博斯，就我們今天坐在這裡的情況而言，當我考慮當前互換利率和國債利率混合的票息利差時，讓我告訴你——我通常會考慮整個收益率曲線的情況。我認為當前息票與互換之間的潛在價差可能在 120 到 160 之間。而現在我們正好處於這個範圍的中間，可能稍微超出了一點，所以稱之為 135 左右的範圍。我不知道今天早上具體是多少，但我認為，相對於互換和目前的票息基礎，抵押貸款的潛在新區間可能在 90 到 130 個基點之間。而今天，我認為從整個曲線來看，這些數字大約在 110 左右。

So taking that number and as I mentioned, we would -- we favor swaps in this environment. We have a lot more stability and swap spreads than we had as we start 2026 than we experienced in 2025, and that's really important. It allows us to go back to sort of using swaps at a much more heavy pace than we were, as I mentioned, we were at 70% and maybe going higher, but I would put it at maybe some of the spread of around 130-ish something like that and you look at the leverage that we typically employ. I would say that you could expect returns at the current spread range, maybe in the 13% to 15%-ish range -- maybe a little bit of -- maybe a touch above that depending on the hedge mix.

所以，根據這個數字，正如我所提到的，在這種環境下，我們傾向於互換交易。與 2025 年相比，2026 年初我們的市場穩定性和掉期利差要好得多，這非常重要。這使我們能夠恢復以比之前更頻繁的速度使用互換，正如我所提到的，我們之前使用了 70% 的互換，而且可能會更高，但我認為它可能會達到 130 左右的價差，看看我們通常使用的槓桿。我認為，在目前的價差範圍內，預期收益可能在 13% 到 15% 左右——也許會略高一些——也許會略高一些，具體取決於對沖組合。

So that translates, I think, into, ROEs that are really competitive and really aligned with our dividend, which let me go to the next question, which is, I think when you think about the dividend, there's a bunch of considerations. We always talk about the dividend and the sustainability from that perspective. That marginal return, and that is important because one of the factors that will drive our dividend over a long period of time is how we replace our portfolio and these new marginal returns will matter, but what's important about that is that will take an extended period of time to occur, measured not in days, weeks, or quarters, but measured in years as the portfolio slowly runs off. The prepayment speed on our portfolio will drive that and also how we reposition the portfolio and how we grow our capital base. So that is something that's much more long term.

所以我認為這轉化為極具競爭力的淨資產收益率，並且與我們的股息非常契合。這讓我想到下一個問題，我認為在考慮股息時，有很多因素需要考慮。我們總是從這個角度來談論股息和永續性。這種邊際收益很重要，因為長期來看，影響我們股利的因素之一就是我們如何替換投資組合，而這些新的邊際收益將至關重要。但重要的是，這需要很長一段時間才能實現，不是以天、週或季度來衡量，而是以年來衡量，因為投資組合會慢慢減少。我們投資組合的提前還款速度將決定這一點，同時也將決定我們如何重新調整投資組合以及如何擴大資本基礎。所以這是需要長期考慮的事情。

When you think about the dividend coverage today, it's important to look at what is the return on our existing portfolio, and we obviously were able to put on a really attractive returning portfolio over the last couple of years at this spread environment. If you think about our net spread in dollar roll income, for example, I call it kind of normalized for this quarter. It was $0.35, but there was -- it was dragged down by $0.01 due to some nonrecurring performance-related compensation.

在考慮今天的股息覆蓋率時，重要的是要看看我們現有投資組合的回報，顯然，在過去幾年的利差環境下，我們能夠建立一個非常有吸引力的回報投資組合。例如，如果你考慮我們以美元計價的淨收益，我認為它在本季已經基本正常化了。實際金額為 0.35 美元，但由於一些非經常性的績效相關補償，實際金額減少了 0.01 美元。

$0.36 and what is the ROE on that? Think about the $0.36 relative to our book value of $8.88. That's about an ROE of 16%. And that aligns very, very well with our total cost of capital. Our total cost of capital, when you add up all the common stock dividends, the preferred stock dividends, our operating costs normalized. It was right at, I think, 15.8% for the -- at the end of the year.

每股收益為 0.36 美元，其淨資產收益率 (ROE) 是多少？想想看，每股收益 0.36 美元，而帳面價值為 8.88 美元。這相當於約 16% 的淨資產收益率。這與我們的總資本成本非常吻合。我們的總資本成本，就是把所有普通股股利、優先股股利和正常化營運成本加起來。我記得年底的時候，這個數字剛好是 15.8%。

So the point is the total cost of capital aligns well with the existing portfolio. The new portfolio still looks really attractive at mid-teens. Obviously, that'll take time. And then there's a bunch of other factors that -- we talk about these all the time. But when you think about our dividend, this is a very dynamic environment as I talked about. We're kind of shifting spread environments. There's a lot of new information that we will get over the next weeks, months, maybe quarters that will determine sort of the direction and stability of mortgage spreads that'll have implications for our leverage that we'll operate with.

所以關鍵在於總資本成本與現有投資組合非常吻合。新的投資組合目前看起來仍然非常有吸引力，價格在十幾美元左右。顯然，這需要時間。此外，還有許多其他因素——我們一直在談論這些因素。但正如我剛才所說，考慮到我們的股息，這是一個非常動態的環境。我們正在改變傳播環境。在接下來的幾週、幾個月甚至幾個季度裡，我們將獲得許多新的訊息，這些資訊將決定抵押貸款利差的走向和穩定性，進而影響我們的槓桿水平。

The hedge mix is going to be an important driver and then there's always accounting considerations. Obviously, REITs have a dividend distribution requirement based on taxable income. That's also something that we'll have to factor into our thinking over time. So there's lots of factors, but I think all of that put together so our dividend is well aligned with the economics and the accounting of our business today.

對沖組合將是一個重要的驅動因素，此外還有會計方面的考量。顯然，房地產投資信託基金（REITs）有根據應稅收入進行股利分配的要求。這也是我們日後需要考慮的因素。所以有很多因素，但我認為所有這些因素綜合起來，使得我們的股息與我們公司目前的經濟和會計狀況非常吻合。

Okay, great. And actually just -- so the existing portfolio seems like it covers the dividend well. The incremental portfolio, is it fair to say it's a little bit sort of whatever closer or the coverage is given the incremental returns are more in the 13% to 15% versus the economic versus kind of the breakeven ROE which looks like it's like 15.5% or something.

好的，太好了。實際上，目前的投資組合似乎足以支付股息。增量投資組合，公平地說，它有點像某種更接近或覆蓋範圍的東西，因為增量回報在 13% 到 15% 之間，而經濟回報或盈虧平衡 ROE 看起來在 15.5% 左右。

Yeah, I think that's right. And also I think it's important when you think about that -- when you think about deploying new capital, if you raise capital, the required return on the new capital that we raised is not the total cost of capital. That's on the existing book of business. The new capital that you would raise, I think the right comparison from a dividend coverage perspective is what is the dividend yield on your stock, which is around 12%. So when you think about deploying new capital, the returns today in the marketplace, as I've mentioned, sort of 13% to 15%, are actually in excess of the dividend yield on our stock, so there's ample coverage from that perspective.

是的，我覺得沒錯。而且我認為，當你考慮部署新資本時，這一點也很重要——如果你籌集了資金，那麼我們籌集的新資本所需的回報率並不是資本的總成本。這是現有業務的一部分。我認為，從股息覆蓋率的角度來看，您籌集的新資金的正確比較對像是您股票的股息收益率，約為 12%。所以，當你考慮投入新資本時，正如我之前提到的，目前市場上的回報率大約在 13% 到 15% 之間，實際上超過了我們股票的股息收益率，因此從這個角度來看，資金覆蓋率是充足的。

Doug Harter, UBS.

道格·哈特，瑞銀集團。

I appreciate the ranges for spreads you gave. Can you talk about how you're thinking about the risk or the potential benefit that could get you either to the high end or the low end of those ranges and how that informs your decision around leverage today?

我非常感謝您提供的價差範圍。您能否談談您是如何考慮風險或潛在收益的，這些風險或收益可能會使您達到這些範圍的高端或低端，以及這如何影響您今天關於槓桿的決策？

Yeah, well, obviously the -- yeah, it's a great question.

是啊，嗯，顯然——是啊，這是一個很好的問題。

Well, Obviously the announcement at the -- I guess it was early in the year -- early this year that really pushed the current coupon spread into this new range was the announcement that the GSEs were going to essentially use all of their portfolio capacity.

顯然，今年年初的一項公告——我猜是今年年初——真正將當前票息差推向這一新範圍的是政府支持企業（GSE）宣布將基本上使用其所有投資組合容量。

Now the market was monitoring, obviously I mentioned it. Everybody knew that the GSEs were growing their portfolio. They have been doing so really since the second half of the year. I think for the year they grew their balance sheet. This is as of November. They added about $50 billion of mortgages and I think from the low point they added about $70 billion. I think Freddie Mac, I think, just announced their MVS for December and they had added another $15 billion of MBS in loans.

顯然，市場一直在關注此事，我也提到了這一點。大家都知道政府支持企業正在擴大其投資組合。他們實際上從下半年就開始這樣做了。我認為他們這一年的資產負債表有所增長。這是截至11月的數據。他們新增了約 500 億美元的抵押貸款，我認為從低谷算起，他們新增了約 700 億美元。我認為房地美剛剛公佈了12月份的抵押貸款支持證券（MVS）數據，其中新增了150億美元的抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）貸款。

So the market was anticipating that they would use and grow their balance -- their portfolios and use the capacity that they had. That announcement obviously made it very clear that that is their intention. And that really caused spreads to tighten quite a bit. From here what I would say is I think that maybe the most likely scenario is that they move sideways for some period of time and we have to wait and see what type of actions come next from the administration and from FHFA.

因此，市場預期他們會利用並增加他們的資產餘額——他們的投資組合，並利用他們所擁有的資金能力。那份聲明顯然非常明確地表明了他們的意圖。這確實導致價差收窄了不少。我認為最有可能的情況是，他們會在一段時間內保持現狀，我們需要拭目以待，看看政府和聯邦住房金融局接下來會採取什麼行動。

There are certainly a number of actions that I think could push spreads to the tighter end of the range. I'll give you some examples that I think would be highly beneficial to the agency market in terms of spread tightening. Things like, changing their cap on their portfolios, and these are things that I think can be done without congressional approval, so they might be appealing from that perspective, but changing the portfolio cap seems to be within their capacity.

我認為肯定有一些舉措可能會將價差收窄到區間的較低水準。我將舉一些例子，我認為這些例子對於縮小利差、促進代理市場發展非常有益。例如，改變他們的投資組合上限，我認為這些事情無需國會批准即可完成，所以他們可能會從這個角度提出上訴，但改變投資組合上限似乎是他們的能力範圍之內的。

Maybe a change in the Fed's balance sheet with the potential of a new Fed Chairman in 2026. The Fed obviously now intends to run its portfolio off. So in a sense, the government through the GSEs is buying $200 billion of mortgages, and the Fed is essentially selling or running off $200 billion of mortgage. Perhaps that may change. That would be obviously something that's not priced into the market.

聯準會的資產負債表可能會發生變化，2026年可能會出現新的聯準會主席。聯準會顯然打算清倉甩賣其投資組合。因此，從某種意義上說，政府透過政府支持企業購買了 2,000 億美元的抵押貸款，而聯準會實際上正在出售或清倉 2,000 億美元的抵押貸款。或許情況會有所改變。這顯然是市場尚未反映出來的因素。

Given the credit guarantee from the government on the GSEs, their explicit guarantee of support, perhaps there could be a rationale for changing the capital requirement, although I don't hear that being talked about very much. So I think there's a number of things that could be very positive. I mentioned the funding market, I think that's a new positive development and maybe there's more changes that the Fed makes with respect to its Standing Repo Program, which would bleed into, I think, in a positive way, the agency market.

鑑於政府對政府支持企業 (GSE) 的信用擔保和明確的支持保證，或許可以考慮改變資本要求，儘管我很少聽到有人談論這一點。所以我認為有很多方面都可能非常積極。我提到了融資市場，我認為這是一個新的積極發展，而聯準會可能會對其常備回購計畫做出更多改變，我認為這將對機構市場產生積極影響。

On the negative side, and there are negatives, there are ideas out there related to for example streamlined refinance or G-fees or even the portability or citability of mortgages. Those, I think, could have negative consequences, some of them significantly negative consequences. But they might -- some of those, when you talk about accelerating prepayment risk, it is going to have some negative effect on mortgage spreads. Obviously, they're more convexious, more optionality, and that will cause mortgage spreads to widen.

不利的一面是，確實存在一些不利因素，例如簡化再融資、G費用，甚至是抵押貸款的可轉移性或可引用性。我認為，這些可能會產生負面後果，其中一些後果可能非常嚴重。但其中一些可能會——當你談到加速提前還款風險時，它會對抵押貸款利差產生一些負面影響。顯然，它們的凸性更大，選擇餘地更大，這將導致抵押貸款利差擴大。

But putting all those together, I think the government has made it very clear. It wants greater mortgage affordability. I think some of the changes they may make may just lead to sustainability at these new levels, which I think would be very positive. Obviously, as a levered investor we're looking for spread stability, that's a key driver of our ability to generate attractive returns. I think that's the most likely environment, but I think there are actions that they still could take that could be positive for the market.

但綜合所有這些因素，我認為政府已經表達得非常明確了。它希望提高抵押貸款的可負擔性。我認為他們可能做出的一些改變或許能夠使企業在新水平上實現永續發展，我認為這將是非常積極的。顯然，作為槓桿投資者，我們追求的是利差穩定性，這是我們獲得可觀回報的關鍵驅動因素。我認為這是最有可能的情況，但我認為他們仍然可以採取一些對市場有利的措施。

And then how do you think about what that means for leverage kind of given that, are you kind of comfortable in the current range, it ticked down kind of during the quarter, but the average is flat. How should we think about that?

那麼，考慮到這一點，你如何看待槓桿作用？你是否對目前的區間感到滿意？雖然本季槓桿率略有下降，但平均值保持穩定。我們該如何看待這個問題？

Yeah, no, that's really key. We did let -- we have let our leverage come down consistent with the spread tightening, and I would say right now we need to see more information in order to make a determination whether we're willing to operate with a different leverage profile. And the key input in that equation is how stable do we believe spreads will be. So what are the actions that the government may take. And will they lead to greater spread stability?

是的，沒錯，這才是關鍵。我們已經降低了槓桿率，與利差收窄保持一致。我認為，目前我們需要更多資訊來決定是否願意採用不同的槓桿率結構。此等式中的關鍵輸入是我們認為價差會有多穩定。那麼政府可能會採取哪些行動呢？它們會帶來更穩定的傳播嗎？

So will the actions that they take, said another way, be sustainable or will they just lead to, for example, a quick short tightening in mortgage spreads? There's some action that they take to cause mortgage spreads to tighten another 15 basis points. But if there's no follow-on action, then spreads could actually widen back out.

換句話說，他們採取的行動是可持續的，還是只會導致例如抵押貸款利差的短期快速收緊？他們採取了一些措施，讓房貸利差再收窄 15 個基點。但如果沒有後續行動，那麼價差實際上可能會再次擴大。

For example, if the GSEs were to use up their capacity quickly, mortgage prices will be tight during that time period, but once they reach their cap, they will like -- mortgage prices will likely revert back to where they were prior to that action. And so what we're looking for is greater insight into what actions they may take and will they lead to spread stability. And I think that's the -- that would be the best benefit for the overall mortgage market from the -- from an affordability perspective is can they keep spreads at these levels which are obviously more attractive from the homeowner's perspective than they were a year ago.

例如，如果政府支持企業 (GSE) 迅速用完其產能，則在此期間抵押貸款價格將趨於緊張，但一旦達到其產能上限，抵押貸款價格很可能會恢復到採取該行動之前的水平。因此，我們正在尋找更深入的了解，了解他們可能會採取哪些行動，以及這些行動是否會導致疫情穩定蔓延。我認為，從可負擔性的角度來看，這對整個抵押貸款市場來說最大的好處是，他們能否將利差維持在這些水平上，這顯然比一年前對房主更有吸引力。

Crispin Love, Piper Sandler.

克里斯平·洛夫，派珀·桑德勒。

As you mentioned, the administration very focused on affordability, lower mortgage rates, but supply here may be the major issue to broader affordability easing and you did mention in the prior question some of the things that could be in the toolkit for the administration at FHFA that could be positive for spread but if you were in their shoes, what would you do to address the affordability questions?

正如您所提到的，政府非常關注可負擔性、降低抵押貸款利率，但供應可能是更廣泛地緩解可負擔性問題的主要障礙。您在先前的問題中提到了一些聯邦住房金融局 (FHFA) 可以採取的措施，這些措施可能對利差產生積極影響。但如果您是他們，您會如何解決可負擔性問題？

Well, I think they've done a lot already. I think they deserve the administration, FHFA, the GSEs, they deserve a tremendous amount of credit for the actions that they took in 2025. I mean, starting with the guidance that sort of the guiding principles that I mentioned and I have mentioned it for a number of times and the treasury in particular has come out with those guiding principles. The treasury secretary continues to reference them.

我覺得他們已經做了很多了。我認為政府、聯邦住房金融局、政府支持企業都應該因其在 2025 年採取的行動而獲得巨大的讚譽。我的意思是，首先要遵循我之前多次提到的指導原則，特別是財政部已經推出的這些指導原則。財政部長繼續提及他們。

The fact that they are focused on mortgage spreads and the treasury secretary in particular talking about taking actions that maintain spread stability or make them tighter is obviously a really key and one of the benefits of why mortgages tighten so much. So that sort of thinking is really important for the market. Because what it's doing is it's allowing other participants to come into the market.

他們關注抵押貸款利差，尤其是財政部長談到採取措施維持利差穩定或收緊利差，這顯然是抵押貸款收緊如此之大的關鍵原因之一，也是其帶來的好處之一。所以這種思考方式對市場來說非常重要。因為它實際上是允許其他參與者進入市場。

The greater spread stability that they can achieve will allow more and more investors into the market and create a more diverse bid for agency mortgage-backed securities which will put less pressure on the GSEs to do that. But the combination of the guidance that they had, the actions of the GSEs, those were all very positive. I think they can do other things like the cap, I think would be one in particular that would give them more capacity and allow spreads to remain at these attractive levels. So I think that's just the key from their perspective is they've got to continue to focus on the stability of the mortgage market which they are doing a great job of.

他們能夠實現的利差穩定性越大，就越能讓越來越多的投資者進入市場，並為機構抵押貸款支持證券創造更多樣化的競標，從而減輕政府支持企業在這方面的壓力。但他們所獲得的指導，以及政府支持企業採取的行動，這些因素結合起來都非常正面。我認為他們還可以採取其他措施，例如設定價格上限，我認為這尤其能讓他們擁有更大的產能，並使價差保持在這些有吸引力的水平。所以我認為，從他們的角度來看，關鍵在於他們必須繼續專注於抵押貸款市場的穩定，而他們在這方面做得非常好。

Great, thank you. That's helpful.

太好了，謝謝。那很有幫助。

And then just one follow-up on the leverage question. Your views seem to be constructive on overall agency MBS investment environment, less rate volatility, and accommodative administration. Of course, there's always a risk of widening and something unforeseen, but how would you gauge your positivity on the investing environment right now for agency MBS of versus a quarter ago, six months, a year ago. And how that might impact the leverage and if you do wait for something, could it be almost too late.

最後，關於槓桿問題，我還有一個後續問題。您對整體機構抵押貸款支持證券投資環境、降低利率波動性和採取寬鬆的管理政策的看法似乎具有建設性。當然，總是會有擴大風險和出現不可預見的情況，但您如何評估您目前對機構抵押貸款支持證券投資環境的樂觀程度，與一個季度前、六個月前、一年前相比呢？這會如何影響談判籌碼？如果你等待某個機會，會不會已經太晚了？

Yeah, there's a couple things that I've already mentioned, but I'll add to it because it's a good follow-on question and that is that when you think about what the mortgage market is today versus a year ago or two years ago or three years ago, yes, we are in a lower spread environment today, but it's still a widespread by historical standards. So they -- returns -- when we're talking about returns in the mid-teens, low to mid -- low- to mid-teens, those are outstanding returns, especially compared to returns that you can get in the marketplace.

是的，我已經提到了一些事情，但我還要補充一點，因為這是一個很好的後續問題。那就是，當你思考今天的抵押貸款市場與一年前、兩年前或三年前相比時，是的，我們現在處於一個利差較低的環境中，但從歷史標準來看，利差仍然很低。所以，當回報率達到十幾到十幾的水平時，這些都是非常出色的回報率，尤其是與市場上其他投資的回報率相比。

For example, look at the performance of our stock versus the S&P 500 or even the Nasdaq last year. You can get outstanding returns and even at these lower spread levels, returns are still really excellent from a shareholder perspective.

例如，看看我們股票去年與標普500指數甚至納斯達克指數的表現比較。您可以獲得優異的回報，即使在目前較低的價差水平下，從股東的角度來看，回報仍然非常出色。

The key differentiator, which is a very positive, is that when you think back to where the environment we were maybe a year ago or two years ago, there was a lot more uncertainty about the upper end of the range. And I think what you can take away from the environment today, and this is the credit to the decision makers and the policymakers in the administration, is that they are limiting the upside of the range. They are saying we want spreads to stay here or go lower, and I would think if mortgages did move to the upper end of the range, then you would see actions being taken that would push them back down into the range and that's really an important development and a very positive development when you're a levered investor like we are is that the range, the upper end of the range is more certain today than it was certainly a year ago and I would expect actions to be taken if there were some sort of exogenous event that caused spreads to widen materially.

關鍵的差異在於，這是一個非常積極的因素，回想一下我們一年前或兩年前所處的環境，當時對於價格區間的上限存在更多的不確定性。我認為，從今天的環境情勢中，我們可以學到的教訓是，政府的決策者和政策制定者正在限制這種趨勢的上升空間，這值得稱讚。他們說我們希望利差保持在這個水平或進一步降低，我認為如果抵押貸款利率真的上升到區間上限，那麼就會有相關部門採取措施將其拉回區間內。對於像我們這樣的槓桿投資者來說，這是一個非常重要且積極的進展，因為如今利差區間的上限比一年前更確定。如果出現某種外部事件導致利差大幅擴大，我預期會有人採取行動。

Trevor Cranston, Citizens JMP.

Trevor Cranston，Citizens JMP。

You talked a bit about swap spreads and increasing the amount of swaps in the portfolio during the fourth quarter. I was wondering if you could give us an update on your view going forward if you think there's room for spreads to continue widening in the swap market and sort of where you think ultimately those settle out.

您談到了一些關於互換利差以及在第四季度增加投資組合中互換數量的問題。我想請您更新您對未來走勢的看法，您認為掉期市場的利差是否還有繼續擴大的空間，以及您認為最終利差會穩定在什麼程度。

Yeah, I do believe that swap spreads will stay certainly -- stay in this range, but I think there is potential for further widening as we go through the year. The Fed's changing its balance sheet focus from quantitative tightening to reserve management. It was obviously a really critical pivotal change from that perspective. They ease some of the regulatory requirements that I mentioned. The market had anticipated that. That is very positive long run. It makes treasuries more friendly from a balance sheet perspective, which has led to some of the swap spread widening.

是的，我相信掉期利差肯定會維持在這個範圍內，但我認為隨著時間的推移，利差有可能進一步擴大。聯準會正在將其資產負債表重點從量化緊縮轉向儲備管理。從這個角度來看，這顯然是一個非常關鍵的轉捩點。它們放寬了我提到的一些監管要求。市場早已預料到這一點。從長遠來看，這是非常積極的。從資產負債表的角度來看，這使得國債更加友好，這也導致了互換利差的擴大。

But the overall funding market now is at a much better footing with the Fed growing its balance sheet $40 billion a month. We'll see how long they do that, but they are adding reserves to the system. reserves got below $3 trillion. Now they're back at $3 trillion or maybe even a little bit above. I expect that to continue, and I think overall that will put widening pressure on mortgage spread.

但由於聯準會每月增加 400 億美元的資產負債表，目前整體融資市場狀況好得多。我們拭目以待，看看他們能這樣做多久，但他們的確在向體系增加儲備。先前儲備金一度跌破3兆美元。現在它們的市值又回到了3兆美元，甚至可能略高於這個數字。我預計這種情況會持續下去，而且我認為總體而言，這將給抵押貸款利差帶來越來越大的壓力。

So I think from a hedge perspective, we'll be better off in a swap-based hedge and a treasury-based hedge for some period of time. And even if spreads just stay here, then obviously we can pick up 25 or 30 basis points extra carry, as I mentioned, when you think about those spread environments, that's substantial leverage 6 or 7 times we're talking about another 1% or 2% of ROE. So I think the outlook is favorable for swap spreads.

所以我認為，從對沖的角度來看，在一段時間內，採用互換對沖和國債對沖會更好。即使利差保持不變，那麼顯然我們可以獲得額外的 25 或 30 個基點的收益，正如我所提到的，考慮到這些利差環境，這是相當大的槓桿，6 或 7 倍，我們談論的是額外的 1% 或 2% 的 ROE。所以我認為掉期利差的前景是有利的。

Yeah, okay, that makes sense.

嗯，好吧，這說得通。

And then on MBS spreads, you talked about the positive technicals in the market, which have been pretty strong. I guess the other thing that's obviously helped MBS performance over the last several months has been volatility continuing to drop, so I was curious if we could get your thoughts on volatility going forward if you think that continues to come down or what your thoughts are around that. Thanks.

然後，關於抵押貸款支持證券價差，您談到了市場上的積極技術指標，這些指標一直非常強勁。我認為，過去幾個月來推動抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 表現的另一個明顯因素是波動性持續下降，所以我很好奇您對未來波動性的看法，您是否認為波動性會繼續下降，或者您對此有何看法。謝謝。

Well, you're absolutely right. I mean that was a key driver of the outperformance of our asset class in 2025 was the decline in interest rate volatility. So we all know any time interest rate volatility increases, it's bad for people who own mortgage-backed securities because it changes the optionality profile from a borrower perspective. And when interest rate volatility declines like it has, it's obviously a positive from a mortgage bond perspective.

沒錯，你說得完全正確。我的意思是，2025年我們這類資產表現優異的關鍵驅動因素是利率波動性的下降。我們都知道，利率波動性增加時，對持有抵押貸款支持證券的人來說是不利的，因為它會改變借款人的選擇權狀況。當利率波動性像現在這樣下降時，從抵押貸款債券的角度來看，這顯然是一個好消息。

You just look at the sort of range of the tenure that we've been in. In the fourth quarter, I think it basically traded in a 25-basis-point range, so hardly any movement in any given day. And when you look back over the year, I think I look back to so really from February on of last year we traded in about a 50-basis-point range.

你只要看看我們所處的任期範圍就知道了。我認為第四季度，它的交易區間基本上在 25 個基點以內，所以每天幾乎沒有什麼波動。回顧過去一年，我認為從去年二月開始，我們的交易波動幅度約為 50 個基點。

And again this is to the credit of the administration and the treasury. Part of the stability that we're seeing, particularly in long-term rates, is because of the focus of the treasury secretary and the administration on keeping longer-term rates stable. The 10-year in particular has been an area of focus, so I believe they will continue to approach their issuance from a perspective that will be beneficial to the 10-year rate.

這再次要歸功於政府和財政部。我們看到的穩定性，尤其是在長期利率方面，部分原因是財政部長和政府致力於維持長期利率穩定。尤其是 10 年期公債一直是關注的重點，所以我相信他們會繼續從有利於 10 年期公債利率的角度來發行國債。

Now we've been sort of trading in this 4% to 4.25% range, as we go forward, I think spread volatility -- or yield volatility or interest rate volatility will continue to be generally low, maybe not as low as it has been, but generally though, because there are some more geopolitical sort of risks in the market for sure today. But I think from the treasury's perspective, I think the direction of interest rates is more likely lower than higher given their focus on affordability. But I do believe it to be a slower grind, lower if the tenure does go down to 4% or maybe break through 4% a little bit. But I think the volatility environment's going to be positive for agency MBS in 2026 based on what we know today anyhow.

現在我們一直在 4% 到 4.25% 的區間內交易，展望未來，我認為利差波動性——或者收益率波動性或利率波動性——總體上將繼續保持較低水平，可能不會像以前那麼低，但總體而言是這樣，因為目前市場上肯定存在一些地緣政治風險。但我認為，從財政部的角度來看，考慮到他們關注的是民眾的承受能力，利率的走向更有可能是下降而不是上升。但我相信這會是一個更緩慢的過程，如果任期真的下降到 4%，或稍微突破 4%，情況會更糟。但我認為，根據我們目前所了解的情況，2026 年的波動環境對機構抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 將是利好消息。

Jason Stewart, Compass Point.

傑森·斯圖爾特，指南針點。

Thanks for all the color and the comments. Just two quick follow-ups. One on capital activity today. Could you give us an update on, equity issuance?

感謝大家的精彩點評和評論。還有兩個後續問題。今日資本活動概況。能否提供一下股權發行的最新進展？

You mean quarter to date -- this quarter to date?

你是說本季至今的情況嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

None, no issuance.

沒有，不簽發。

Okay, and then in terms of your comments, maybe just tie in sort of expectations for ATM issuance. I mean, obviously 2025 was a big year with your ROE profile and give us some two cents on that.

好的，關於您的評論，或許可以稍微談談 ATM 發行的預期。我的意思是，很明顯，2025 年對你的 ROE 指標來說是一個重要的年份，請你談談你的看法。

Yeah, it was a great environment, a sort of confluence of positive factors because we could obviously issue it very accretively and we could deploy it at really attractive return levels. Now we can still issue it accretively and so that's a positive factor going forward, but obviously the return profile's not quite as attractive as it was.

是的，那是一個非常好的環境，各種積極因素匯聚在一起，因為我們顯然可以以非常高的增值價格發行債券，並且可以以非常有吸引力的回報水平進行部署。現在我們仍然可以增值發行，這對未來來說是一個積極的因素，但顯然回報情況不如以前那麼有吸引力了。

But as I mentioned, it still exceeds the threshold. So it's something that we will continue to do. But I would also say sort of that we're certainly very comfortable with our size and our scale and our liquidity, so there's no urgency on our part to feel like we need to grow. The decision to issue capital will be just based solely on the economics that we see in the environment, so we're certainly very happy with our size and scale and liquidity and like where we are today.

但正如我所說，它仍然超過了閾值。所以我們會繼續這樣做。但我還要說，我們對目前的規模、體積和流動性都非常滿意，所以我們不覺得需要擴張。是否發行新股的決定將完全基於我們所看到的經濟環境，因此我們對目前的規模、體積和流動性非常滿意，也對我們目前的狀況感到滿意。

Okay, got it. That makes sense.

好的，明白了。這很有道理。

And then in terms of the MBS market, we've talked a lot about demand from the GSEs, but outside of the GSEs, when we think about traditional buyers, like banks, as rates are going down and there's been a little bit more mixed activity in terms of foreign demand. What's your take on how those two buyers evolve over the course of the next 12 months?

至於抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 市場，我們已經談了很多關於政府支持企業 (GSE) 的需求，但除了 GSE 之外，當我們想到銀行等傳統買家時，隨著利率下降，外國需求方面出現了一些更加複雜的活動。您認為這兩位買家在未來 12 個月內會有哪些變化？

Yeah, when you look at the market, I talked about the supply outlook, and again, the supply outlook really is going to be very similar, at least at today's levels. Now, obviously if rates come down and we have more refinance activity, these numbers will change.

是的，當你觀察市場時，我談到了供應前景，而供應前景確實會非常相似，至少在目前的水平上是如此。顯然，如果利率下降，再融資活動增加，這些數字就會改變。

But again from a supply outlook, it's about $400 billion that will have to be consumed by the private sector, and we know that the GSEs, $200 billion obviously is very meaningful, so they could consume quite a bit of that supply which would be very positive, but taking the GSEs out of it. I think what's also important, and this is a differentiator of the market today versus a year ago or two years ago where the market was really dominated by money managers. When we look at the demand for mortgages today, I see a more diverse investor base and that's really positive for the overall market.

但從供應前景來看，大約有 4000 億美元將需要私營部門消耗，我們知道 GSE（政府支持企業）的 2000 億美元顯然非常重要，因此它們可以消耗相當一部分供應，這將非常積極，但如果把 GSE 排除在外的話。我認為同樣重要的是，這也是當今市場與一年前或兩年前市場的一個區別，當時的市場實際上是由資金管理人主導的。當我們審視當今的抵押貸款需求時，我發現投資者群體更加多元化，這對整個市場來說確實是一個好消息。

When you look at what money managers have done, given where returns are in the equity market, given the intent of the administration's focus on long-term interest rates, I think bond fund inflows will continue to be very sizable. Last year, I think it came close to about $500 billion of inflows. The year before that it was $450 billion. So I would expect bond fund inflows to remain strong in the environment -- in the current environment, which would translate to bond -- money managers buying, probably somewhere between $100 billion and $200 billion of mortgages.

考慮到股票市場的回報狀況，以及政府對長期利率的關注，從基金經理人的運作來看，我認為債券基金的資金流入將繼續保持非常可觀的規模。我認為去年流入資金接近 5,000 億美元。前一年是4500億美元。因此，我預計在當前環境下（即債券市場），債券基金的資金流入將保持強勁，基金經理人可能會購買 1,000 億美元至 2,000 億美元的抵押貸款債券。

So money managers and GSEs could consume a lot of the production. Then we have banks which we know are growing their position, but at a very gradual pace. But I do expect the regulatory changes that will come in 2026 will be positive for MBS and mortgage risk in general. So I expect banks to buy more than $50 billion which is, I think, most people's projections.

因此，資金管理人和政府支持企業可能會消耗大量的產量。然後，我們知道有些銀行正在擴大其市場地位，但速度非常緩慢。但我確實預計 2026 年即將出台的監管改革將對抵押貸款支持證券 (MBS) 和整體抵押貸款風險產生積極影響。所以我預計銀行將購買超過 500 億美元的股票，我認為這與大多數人的預測一致。

Foreign demand has been stable, but I expect that could also have a little bit of upside because I think the environment is a little bit better versus the last couple of years. And then REITs, again, they were a big contributor to the mortgage market in 2025, and I would expect that REIT demand can continue to be strong given all that we're talking about here this morning. So when you add up all the demand, I think you could credibly come up with a scenario where demand is outpacing the supply in 2026.

國外需求一直保持穩定，但我認為由於當前環境比過去幾年略有好轉，因此國外需求可能還會略有上升空間。此外，房地產投資信託基金（REITs）在2025年對抵押貸款市場做出了巨大貢獻，鑑於我們今天上午討論的所有內容，我預計對房地產投資信託基金的需求將繼續保持強勁。因此，當你把所有需求加起來時，我認為完全可以預見 2026 年需求將超過供應。

Ric Shane, J.P. Morgan.

瑞克沙恩，摩根大通。

Hey guys, thanks for taking my question and I need to buzz in one question before Jason. He really covered my topics, but just one clarification (laughter) one quick clarification. Sounds like you guys are slowing issuance given the incremental return on deployed capital, which makes sense. You also said in response to Jason that you hadn't issued any equity through the ATM quarter to date. I am curious, is was that actually by choice or are you blacked out on the ATM until you issue earnings just so we understand really how much you're dialing back if it was a function of what you're allowed to do versus what you've chosen to do.

各位好，感謝你們回答我的問題，我需要在Jason之前搶答最後一個問題。他確實涵蓋了我提出的主題，但還有一個需要澄清的地方（笑聲），一個需要快速澄清的地方。聽起來你們似乎正在放緩債券發行速度，以期獲得已投入資本的增量回報，這很合理。你回覆Jason時也表示，到目前為止，你還沒有透過ATM季度發行任何股票。我很好奇，這真的是你的選擇嗎？還是說，在你發放收入之前，你都無法使用ATM機？這樣我們才能真正了解，如果你被允許做的事情和你選擇做的事情之間存在差異，那麼你究竟減少了多少工作量。

Well, that's a good clarification. I would say two things that I could -- I would describe my answer to the future issuance as being opportunistic and driven not by any desire to be larger or have greater scale, but just driven by the economics of the opportunity in terms of the value to our existing shareholders. And then from a quarter to date perspective, most companies I think you will find are in a blackout period from the end of the previous period to sometime around their earnings call. So that would be a typical pattern for companies to not be in the market.

嗯，這解釋得很好。我只能說兩點──我對未來增發股票的回答是機會主義的，並非出於擴大規模的願望，而是出於對現有股東價值的經濟考量。從季度至今的角度來看，我認為大多數公司都會從上一季末到財報電話會議前後這段時間處於靜默期。所以，這對一些公司來說，不進入市場是典型的模式。

Perfect. That was the clarification I was looking for.

完美的。這就是我想要的解釋。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

Eric Hagen，BTIG。

I just want to get your perspective on prepayment speeds at maybe at what level for mortgage rates you think really gets the refi market moving? And would you guys modify the hedging in any way or take off some of the longer dated hedges if it looked like refis were really going to accelerate?

我只是想了解您對提前還款速度的看法，以及您認為抵押貸款利率達到什麼水平才能真正推動再融資市場的發展？如果再投資看起來真的要加速成長，你們會以任何方式調整對沖策略，或是取消一些期限較長的避險嗎？

Say that last part again, Eric, please.

艾瑞克，請你再說一次最後那句話。

Would you adjust any of the hedges or take off some of the longer dated hedges if it looked like the refi market was really going to accelerate?

如果再融資市場看起來真的要加速發展，你會調整一些避險策略，還是取消一些期限較長的避險策略？

So let me start with a couple questions -- a couple of points, and then we'll -- then you can ask me some follow-ups.

那麼，讓我先問幾個問題──幾個要點，然後──然後你們可以問我一些後續問題。

Obviously prepayment risk is greater today and certainly I think it's greater given the direction of the administration, so composition of the portfolio I think is going to be a real key in terms of mortgage performance going forward. I think it's going to -- the story will not -- even though in a -- in a tighter spread environment, asset selection becomes a much more critical factor on a go forward basis, and it's what are the assets that you're choosing and what are the assets that you're avoiding -- choosing, which is really important. Coupon composition is going to be really important and the type of characteristics you have in your pools is going to be really important.

顯然，如今提前還款的風險更大，而且我認為鑑於政府的政策方向，風險肯定更大，因此我認為投資組合的構成將是未來抵押貸款表現的關鍵。我認為——故事不會——即使在——在利差收窄的環境下，資產選擇在未來會成為一個更關鍵的因素，那就是你選擇哪些資產，避免哪些資產——選擇，這才是真正重要的。優惠券的組成非常重要，獎金池中的獎品類型也非常重要。

When I look at, for example, just to give you a couple numbers on the coupon distribution, I think this is really important. When I look at our position of 5.5% and above, I think about, the moneyness of mortgages and what that 5.5% means with a mortgage rate 6.5% or something there above, about 48% of our portfolio is in 5.5% and above. But what's important of that population, 87% of that population has some form of underlying attribute or characteristic that we believe will make those cash flows potentially more stable.

例如，我來看優惠券的分配情況，舉幾個例子，我認為這非常重要。當我看到我們 5.5% 及以上的持倉時，我會想到抵押貸款的資金性質，以及在抵押貸款利率為 6.5% 或更高的情況下，5.5% 的持倉意味著什麼。我們投資組合中約有 48% 的持股在 5.5% 及以上。但重要的是，這部分人群中有 87% 的人具有某種潛在屬性或特徵，我們認為這將使他們的現金流更加穩定。

And so that's really what is really important when you look at the underlying characteristics, whether they're -- the channel they came through or the credit or the geography, all those fab loan balances, all those things, what's happening with the GSEs in terms of their pricing? How do they all fit together? They could be very significant drivers of performance on a go-forward basis. So the specified pool characteristics are going to be really important.

所以，當你審視其基本特徵時，真正重要的是——無論是他們通過的管道、信用狀況還是地理位置，所有這些貸款餘額，所有這些因素，GSE 在定價方面發生了什麼？它們之間是如何相互關聯的？它們可能成為未來業績成長的重要驅動因素。因此，指定的泳池特性非常重要。

Chris and I were just actually looking at some numbers this morning which I just thought were interesting when we looked at, for example, our 6.5% population, which is only 5% of our portfolio. The cheapest to deliver cohort in the 6.5% population stage is paying at a 52% CPR. Our population is trading at just less than half of that from a CPR perspective. So the underlying characteristics matter a lot. The coupon composition will matter a lot. It'll be the key driver for -- we also, from an interest rates perspective and from a hedging perspective, as you point out, I think it's also going to be important to operate with a positive duration gap because obviously as rates go down, it'll be more challenging for mortgages and it'll affect the supply outlook, so a positive duration gap will be important.

今天早上我和克里斯剛好在看一些數據，我覺得很有意思，例如，我們6.5%的人口只占我們投資組合的5%。在人口占比 6.5% 的階段，最經濟實惠的群體支付 52% 的 CPR。從 CPR 的角度來看，我們的人口價值還不到這個數字的一半。所以其內在特徵非常重要。優惠券的組成至關重要。這將是關鍵驅動因素——從利率角度和對沖角度來看，正如你所指出的，我認為保持正久期缺口也很重要，因為顯然隨著利率下降，抵押貸款將面臨更大的挑戰，這將影響供應前景，因此正久期缺口將非常重要。

And you'll also notice and we did this last quarter, but it's still there today. We also have, actually, a fairly substantial receiver swaption position which will give us some incremental protection, so all the combination of how do we position the portfolio from a hedge perspective, the duration gap using option-based hedges, and in particular avoiding the worst pools and selecting pools that we think have really attractive characteristics should benefit us in this rising prepayment environment.

你也會注意到，我們上個季度就這麼做了，但直到今天它仍然存在。事實上，我們還有相當可觀的接收方互換期權頭寸，這將給我們提供一些額外的保護，因此，從對沖角度來看，我們如何配置投資組合，使用基於期權的對沖來彌補久期，特別是避免最差的資金池，並選擇我們認為具有真正有吸引力的特徵的資金池，所有這些組合都應該使我們在不斷上升的情況下受益。

That's great stuff. Thanks for the complete answer. I appreciate you guys.

太棒了。感謝您的完整解答。感謝大家。

Harsh Hemnani, Green Street.

哈什·赫姆納尼，格林街。

So as we look at the com -- as we look at the composition of the mortgage market, it's more barbelled today versus what it was over its history. And in the context of the par coupon being close to 5%, the coupons at 4% and 5%, there's less outstanding there versus in higher coupons and lower coupons. And then also it sounds like from the messaging from the administration, GSE purchases are going to come in at those par coupons. How's that environment sort of affecting your ability to first off pick pools in in this environment where there's less outstanding at the coupons you favor and then also deploy capital into those coupons?

因此，當我們審視抵押貸款市場的組成時，會發現它如今的組成比歷史上更不規則。而且，在票面利率接近 5% 的情況下，4% 和 5% 的票面利率對應的未償還金額，比更高或更低的票面利率對應的未償還金額要少。而且從政府部門的消息來看，GSE 的採購似乎也將按照這些優惠券的價格進行。在當前環境下，您首先是在您偏好的優惠券發行量較少的情況下選擇投資池，然後是將資金投入這些優惠券，這種環境對您有何影響？

Yeah, I think I got all that.

是的，我想我都明白了。

I would say you're right. I mean, one of the things that we have talked about and focused on is the fact that I would expect the GSEs to -- first off, I would expect the GSEs to make decisions based on the economics of the mortgage market, but I would expect their focus of their purchases to likely be around the par coupon because that'll have the greatest impact on the primary mortgage rate, which is what they're trying to affect.

我覺得你說得對。我的意思是，我們討論和關注的一點是，我預計政府支持企業（GSE）——首先，我預計GSE會根據抵押貸款市場的經濟狀況做出決策，但我預計他們的購買重點可能會集中在票面利率附近，因為這將對主要抵押貸款利率產生最大的影響，而這正是他們試圖影響的目標。

And that's why when you, for example, when you look at the performance across the coupon stock, even quarter to date, that 5%-ish coupon is probably 15 basis points tighter, but the rest of the coupon stack on average, for example, our portfolio, and Bernie mentioned our returns quarter to date are more consistent with about 5 basis points on average because all the other coupons didn't move nearly as much.

因此，例如，當你查看整個票息股票的表現時，即使是本季度至今，票息約為 5% 的股票可能比其他股票收緊 15 個基點，但其他票息股票的平均表現，例如我們的投資組合，正如伯尼提到的，我們本季度至今的回報平均約為 5 個基點，因為所有其他票息股票的幅度都沒有那麼大波動。

So but from an overall perspective, I mean that's not particularly challenging from our perspective. We certainly have a lot of liquidity in all of these coupons. Obviously, the largest cohorts are the lower coupons, and you mentioned sort of those intermediate coupons, but there is ample liquidity when you think about the $9-trillion market. There is ample liquidity for us to move into various coupons into 4s%, 4.5s%. We have a sizable position in those coupons today, so there's plenty of liquidity for us to position the portfolio any way we want from an overall coupon distribution perspective, and I would expect the current coupon to be the area that has the most focus from an external perspective.

所以，從整體上看，我的意思是，從我們的角度來看，這並不是什麼特別具有挑戰性的事情。我們這些優惠券確實擁有充足的流動性。顯然，規模最大的群體是低息債券，你也提到了中等息債券，但考慮到9兆美元的市場規模，流動性是充足的。我們有足夠的流動性，可以投資各種票息，例如 4%、4.5%。我們目前持有相當數量的此類債券，因此我們有足夠的流動性，可以從整體債券收益分配的角度，按照我們想要的方式調整投資組合。我預計，從外部角度來看，目前的債券收益將是關注的焦點。

Got it. That's helpful.

知道了。那很有幫助。

And then maybe on the duration gap you touched on this a little bit. It's been growing for the past few quarters and it adds that down rate protection in an environment where prepayment risks are elevated. How should we expect that to evolve over the coming quarters and then what's the boundaries around that that we should be thinking about?

然後，關於時長差距，你可能也稍微提過一點。過去幾季以來，它一直在成長，在提前還款風險較高的環境下，它還能提供降價保護。我們應該預期這種情況在未來幾季會如何發展？我們應該考慮哪些方面的界線？

Yeah, well, you're right. I mean, I think we ended the quarter. Our duration gap was like about point three – three-tenths of a year or something like that. It's larger than that today because their tenure has backed up. So right now we have about a half a year. It was 0.4% at the end of last quarter. I think it's a little higher than that, maybe 0.5% this morning.

是啊，你說得對。我的意思是，我覺得我們已經結束了這個季度。我們的時長差距大約是0.3年，也就是十分之三年左右。如今規模比那時更大，因為他們的任期已經延長了。所以現在我們還有大約半年的時間。上季末為0.4%。我覺得應該比這略高一些，今天早上可能達到 0.5%。

Because the tenure now is up about 4.20% or a little bit above, so to the extent that the 10-year rate stays here or maybe moves a little higher, I would expect our duration gap to widen even more because I think that the risk to a lower rates would obviously increase. I don't expect the tenure to move very much above, say, 4.35%, and I expect there to be some risk that it gets back down closer to 4%, so. Our duration gap probably in this neighborhood was where we'll operate from a historical perspective just to give you some guidance. I mean, I would say in the half a year-ish type range somewhere between a quarter of a year and three-quarters of a year would be typically where we would operate.

由於目前的期限增長了約 4.20% 或略高於此，因此，如果 10 年期國債利率保持在這個水平或略微上升，我預計我們的久期缺口會進一步擴大，因為我認為利率下降的風險顯然會增加。我預計任期不會大幅超過 4.35%，而且我認為有回落到接近 4% 的風險。從歷史角度來看，我們的持續時間差距可能就在這個範圍內，這樣我們就可以給您一些指導。我的意思是，我估計大概半年左右的時間範圍，通常我們會在半年到半年三刻之間運作。

We have now completed the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter Federico for concluding remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我謹將電話交還給彼得·費德里科，請他作總結發言。

Great, thank you, operator, and thank you everyone again for participating. We're obviously very pleased to be able to deliver outstanding results for our shareholders in 2025 and we look forward to 2026 and the environment that we're in and look forward to speaking to you again at the end of the first quarter.

太好了，謝謝操作員，也再次感謝大家的參與。我們非常高興能夠在 2025 年為股東帶來卓越的業績，我們期待著 2026 年以及我們所處的環境，並期待在第一季末再次與您交流。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for joining the call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加通話。您現在可以斷開連線了。