Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (AGM) 2015 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Farmer Mac third-quarter 2015 investor conference call.

(Operator Instructions)

Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tim Buzby, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Buzby, please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Good morning. I'm Tim Buzby, Farmer Mac's President and CEO. Farmer Mac is pleased to welcome you to our third-quarter 2015 investor conference call. Before I begin, I will ask Steve Mullery, Farmer Mac's General Counsel, to comment on forward-looking statements that Management may make today, as well as Farmer Mac's use of non-GAAP financial measures.

Thanks, Tim. Some of the statements made on this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements under the securities laws. We make these statements based on our current expectations and assumptions about future events and business performance. We do not undertake any obligation to update these statements after the date of this call. We caution you that forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. In evaluating Farmer Mac, you should consider these risks and uncertainties as well as those described in our 2014 annual report on form 10-K, our subsequent quarterly reports on form 10-Q, and our other filings with the SEC.

Farmer Mac uses core earnings and non-GAAP financial measure to measure corporate performance and develop financial plans. In Management's view, core earnings is a useful alternative measure for understanding Farmer Mac's economic performance, transaction economics and business trends. This non-GAAP financial measure may not be comparable to similarly labeled non-GAAP financial measures disclosed by other companies. Farmer Mac's disclosure of core earnings is intended to be supplemental in nature and is not meant to be considered in isolation from, as a substitute for, or as more important than, the related financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP. A recording of this call will be available at our website for two weeks starting later today.

Thank you, Steve. Third quarter was another solid quarter for Farmer Mac, characterized by growth in outstanding business volume, stable net effective spread and continued strong credit quality. Farmer Mac also implemented a common stock repurchase program in September. This program authorizes Farmer Mac to purchase up to $25 million Farmer Mac's class-C common stock over the next two years. We established this program because we believe that the valuation multiples on the stock had become disconnected with what we view as the value of, and prospects for, the Company. Later during this call, Dale Lynch will provide more information about the repurchases under the program so far.

Farmer Mac ended third-quarter 2015 with outstanding business volume of $15.6 billion. We added $1.4 billion of new business this quarter, resulting in net growth of nearly $500 million after maturities and repayments. This increase was due to a significant increase in our outstanding business volume with our Rural Utilities partner, National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation, known as CFC, as well as new loan purchases across all of our lines of business. The growth in outstanding business volume with CFC this quarter marks two important milestones for us. It marks the first time that we have executed with CFC our long-term standby purchase commitment product, which provides credit protection on the designated pool of $522 million of Rural Utilities loans.

It also marks the first time that we have put into place a revolving floating rate AgVantage facility for CFC. The $300 million, three-year floating rate AgVantage facility provides a term financing vehicle that Farmer Mac believes will help CFC manage its commercial paper and other short-term funding balances. These two developments are concrete examples of industry dynamics that can increase demand for the solutions that Farmer Mac provides.

Through just nine months of 2015, our total outstanding business with CFC has increased by more than $1.2 billion, growing to $3.9 billion as of September 30, 2015. This amount of total business with CFC includes $982 million of loan purchases, $2.4 billion of AgVantage securities, which includes the currently unfunded new floating-rate AgVantage facility and $518 million of long-term standby purchase commitments.

Dale will cover our new volume information in more detail shortly, but our foremen ranch loan purchases were also strong this quarter, continuing the strong pace reported in the second quarter and more than offsetting the heavy repayment amounts that occurred in July, consistent with our historical experience for our portfolio that consists of many loans that pay semi annually. Continued strong participation from our bank customers and a modest expansion of our loan products contributed to this increase. Prepayment rates remained low during third quarter 2015, which contributed to the continuation of favorable trends in net growth during the quarter.

Our USDA Guarantees line of business also performed well, although the pace slowed modestly compared to second quarter of 2015, which reflects a typical seasonal pattern that occurs late in the federal budget year. Overall, we are on pace for higher volumes in 2015 compared to last year as banks are increasingly willing to sell the lower return guaranteed portions of loans to fund other new loan originations.

Farmer Mac's net effective spread for third quarter remains stable on a percentage basis but grew $600,000 compared to second quarter 2015, due to growth in business volume. Overall, new business spreads have been stable since mid-2013 but slowing prepayment rates in the past two years and a continuing business mix shift a higher-margin products has contributed to stabilizing and generally higher average overall spreads in recent quarters.

The credit quality of our portfolio remains healthy. As of September 30, $36.7 million, or 0.67% of our $5.5 billion Farm & Ranch portfolio, was 90 days delinquent, compared to 0.58% in second quarter 2015. As we've mentioned previously, we expect that over time Farmer Mac's 90-day delicacy rate will eventually revert to our historical average of approximately 1%, due to macroeconomic or other industry-related factors. However, we have not seen an impact on our delinquencies related to such factors.

As we have discussed on previous calls, the Western part of United States, including California continues to experience drought conditions, with the water level in many California reservoirs at historically low levels. The situation remains very similar to what we discussed during our second-quarter call. The persistence of extreme drought conditions in the Western states could have an adverse effect on Farmer Mac's delinquency rates or loss experience in the future, but we have not yet seen a material impact. We continue to remain informed about the drought and its effects on the agricultural industries located in the Western states and on our Farm & Ranch portfolio through regular discussions with our loan servicers that service loans in drought-stricken areas as well as customers and other lenders in the industry.

With that as background, I would like to turn to Dale Lynch, our Chief Financial Officer, to cover our financial results in more detail. Dale?

Thanks, Tim. As Tim mentioned, third quarter 2015 was a milestone in terms of our business with CFC and it was a quarter characterized by good overall business line growth, growing revenues and healthy credit. As we mentioned last quarter, we completed two unique initiatives not related to our program business in first quarter 2015, a capital restructuring initiative and the cash management and liquidity initiative. Accordingly, our third-quarter 2015 financial results were not affected by these initiatives. However, as I cover our financial results this quarter, I will provide insights into prior-period comparisons when those prior periods included the effects of these initiatives.

Turning to the financials, Farmer Mac's third-quarter 2015 core earnings were $13.2 million, or $1.17 per diluted common share, compared to $11.6 million, or $1.02 per share, in the second quarter 2015 and $9.3 million, or $0.82 per share, in the year-ago quarter. The $1.6 million increase in core earnings compared to second quarter 2015 resulted primarily from a $1 million after-tax reduction in credit expenses and a $0.4 million after-tax increase in that effective spread. The $3.9 million increase in core earnings from the year-ago quarter was driven by some of the unique items related to the two initiatives I mentioned earlier, as well as a healthy increase in that net effective spread.

On the fundamental side, net effective spread drive for the third-quarter 2015 increased $1.8 million after tax, excluding the impact of the lost dividend income from the redemption of the high yielding CoBank preferred stock, which was partially offset by a $0.7 million after-tax increase in operating expenses and a $0.4 million after-tax increase in credit expenses. The increase in operating expenses was primarily attributable to the increased consulting fees associated with IT initiatives and new business opportunities, as well as by compensation expense associated with the consolidation of our new appraisal subsidiary, Contour Valuation Services.

The remaining increase in core earnings from the year-ago quarter was driven by the unique items mentioned earlier, which included a $3.5 million after-tax reduction in preferred dividend expenses for third-quarter 2015, resulting from the completion of the capital restructuring initiative and a $1 million after-tax reduction in interest expense for third quarter 2015 associated with the completion of the cash management liquidity initiative. These benefits for third quarter 2015, compared to third quarter 2014, were partially offset by the loss of $1.9 million after-tax and dividend income on the high yielding CoBank preferred stock previously held in our investment portfolio in which was redeemed in fourth quarter 2014.

Switching to GAAP net income, third-quarter 2015 net income attributable to common stockholders was $8.4 million, or $0.74 per diluted common share, compared to $11.6 million, or $1.02 per share, in the year-ago quarter. The $3.2 million decrease compared to the previous year's quarter was primarily attributable to the effects of unrealized fair value changes on financial derivatives and hedged assets, which was a $4.5 million after-tax loss in third quarter 2015 compared to a $2.7 million after-tax gain in the year-ago quarter.

Turning to spreads, Farmer Mac's net effective spread for third-quarter 2015 was $30.4 million, or 88 basis points, compared to $29.8 million, or 88 basis points, in the second quarter of this year and $29.8 million, or 97 basis points, in the year-ago quarter. The $0.6 million increase in net effective spread compared to second quarter 2015 was attributable to growth in our outstanding business volume. On a percentage basis, net effective spread was stable sequentially due to new business pricing -- due to stable new business pricing and the relatively low level of prepayments on our loan assets. The $0.6 million increase compared to the 2014 was also attributable to growth in our outstanding business volume. The 9 basis point reduction in percentage terms compared to the year-ago quarter was driven primarily by the loss of the dividend income on the CoBank preferred stock mentioned earlier.

Turning to our four lines of business, net effective spreads for third quarter 2015 and second quarter 2015 were as follows, $9.6 million, or 180 basis points, for Farm & Ranch, compared to $9.7 million, or 182 basis points, in the second quarter; $4.6 million, or 99 basis points, for USDA Guarantees, compared to $4.5 million, or 98 basis points; $2.9 million, or 118 basis points, for Rural Utilities, compared to $2.8 million, or 118 basis points; and lastly, $11.3 million, or 81 basis points, for Institutional Credit compared to $10.9 million, or 78 basis points. From a credit perspective, portfolio quality remained healthy during the third quarter as substandard assets percentage decreased 2.2% from 2.5% in second quarter. This modest decrease was driven by the repayment at par this quarters of two loans that were previously classified as substandard assets.

The total allowance for losses was $10.3 million, or 19 basis points, of our $5.5 billion Farm & Ranch portfolio as of the end of the third quarter compared to $10.6 million, or 19 basis points, of the Farm & Ranch portfolio at the end of the second quarter 2015. We recognized $31,000 after-tax REO write down for third quarter 2015 which, when netted against $197,000 after-tax reduction in the allowance, resulted in net credit-related income of $166,000 after-tax this quarter.

As Tim mentioned, in the Farm & Ranch portfolio, 90-day delinquencies were $36.7 million, or 0.67% of the Farm & Ranch portfolio, as of September 30, 2015 compared to $31.9 million, or 58 basis points, as of June 30, 2015 and $24.7 million, or 46 basis points, in the year-ago quarter. As for substandard assets, our total allowance for losses, 90 day delinquencies remained stable and toward the favorable end of our historical averages. For Farmer Mac's other lines of business, there were currently no delinquent AgVantage securities of Rural Utility loans and the USDA Securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. As a result, across all of Farmer Mac's four lines of business, the overall level of 90-day delinquencies comprised entirely of Farm & Ranch loans was just 23 basis points of total volume as of September 30, 2015 compared to 21 basis points of total volume in the second quarter of this year and 18 basis points in the year-ago quarter.

In terms of business volume, we added more than $1.4 billion in gross new business this quarter. Looking at the specifics, we added the following new business volumes, $522 million of royal utility standbys; a $300 million floating-rate AgVantage revolver, which is not currently drawn upon but for which we do earn a modest annual fee on the full facility side; $207 million of AgVantage securities backed by Farm & Ranch loans; $176 million of Farm & Ranch loan purchases; $91 million of USDA Securities; $80 million of Farm & Ranch standbys; and $54 million of royal utility loans. After repayments, which included $610 million of schedule maturities for AgVantage securities backed by Farm & Ranch loans, our net outstanding business volume increased $498 million this quarter.

Turning to capital, Farmer Mac's $558 million of core capital as of September 30, 2015 excluded the statutory minimum capital requirement of $443 million by $115 million, or 26%. This compares to core capital of $553 million, or $110 million of capital above the statutory minimum capital, as of second quarter this year and a core capital of $766 million, or $345 million of capital above the statutory minimum capital requirement, as of year end 2014. The decrease in core capital from year end 2014 resulted from the redemption of $250 million of FALConS preferred stock on March 30 of 2015.

As Tim mentioned, Farmer Mac initiated a share repurchase program in September 2015. As of November 6, Farmer Mac has repurchased approximately 172,000 shares for a total amount of $4.7 million. The share prices at which we're repurchasing these shares proved to be accretive to our remaining stockholders over time as we repurchased more shares. In terms of liquidity, Farmer Mac had 124 days of liquidity as of the end of third quarter 2015 compared to the minimum regulatory requirement of 90 days of liquidity. More complete information about Farmer Mac's third quarter 2015 is set forth in the 10-Q we filed today with the SEC.

And with that, Tim, I'll turn it back to you.

Thanks, Dale. To sum it up, we had a very good quarter in terms of business volume growth, especially with our Rural Utilities partner, CFC. While the agricultural economy continues to adjust to lower commodity prices and the persistent West Coast drought, the overall business climate for Farmer Mac remains positive. We believe that the relative demand for Farmer Mac's products could increase as credit become somewhat tighter and we believe this is beginning to occur.

We're also pleased to have begun our share repurchase program at prices that we believe are very attractive. We look forward to the ongoing execution of this program.

In terms of delivering upon our mission, Farmer Mac continues to communicate the value of our products and solutions to current and prospective customers. We continue to sign up new banks for our loan purchase and credit protection products. We see strong interest for Farmer equity AgVantage financing from existing and potential new counter parties.

We are also working hard to expand the rest of our Institutional Credit line of business to new agricultural lenders. In fulfilling our mission to serve rural America, we are actively seeking to help bring new capital to agricultural and rural communities.

At this time, we'd be happy to answer any questions you may have.

(Operator Instructions)

Chas Tyson from KBW.

Good morning. First question I wanted to ask on the growth in the Rural Utility segment. It's obviously very robust this quarter, but I was wondering if you guys could give some color behind what's driving that, whether it be new requirements from debt rating agencies or lenders moving away from the Rural Utilities service.

Thanks, Chas. In terms of CFCs decision to enter into the long-term standby product with us, I think it's consistent with them looking at their financial position and their desire to serve their borrowers as a cooperative. They want to have themselves positioned such that they can serve any of their owner members that need financing, so I think as they look at their balance sheet structure and how others may look at their balance sheet, they are constantly looking for ways to increase the financing that they can provide. I think we're fortunate that this is a tool that they viewed as of way to be able to help them to position their equity position.

Okay, got it. And then, in the updated equity presentation you put on the website, I know that the USDA updated its estimates for Farm mortgage-related debt for 2014 in 2015. It seems like the rate of that debt is increasing at a higher rate, but the denominator maybe pushed down your market share that would be estimated for 2015. Can you give us some color behind that and maybe if there's a competitive dynamics of the space are increasing and what your thoughts are?

I think that line of business for us is pretty mature in terms of the amount of growth that we see on an annual basis. It's grown a little more than $100 million on a net basis each year. I think as the industry dynamics have changed, there is competition for those products but again, that's sort of a steady as she goes line of business for us, not an area where we would expect high levels of growth.

Got it. Last one on the reserve lease around the permanent planting credit. I was wondering if you could give some color there on in terms of what the characteristics of that loan were, what the LTV there was underwritten at, what the severity assumptions that you were making were and then why -- what changed that, that caused it to come in and per better than what you are thinking originally?

I think in our disclosures we indicated that it was an updated appraisal which drove that, so it really wasn't anything specific to the property that -- it's sort of fundamental to the industry. It was just seeking new information, making sure that we had that property appropriately valued and it turned out that it's actually increased in value from when we had the original appraisal done.

Got it. Okay, thank you.

(Operator Instructions)

Jesus Bueno from Compass Point.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a quick question on Contour, if you could provide an update. I noticed it's included now in that right about $300,000 in other income in the cost. It looks like it's close to breaking given. If you could outline expectations for that and how we should think about that going forward.

That's a start-up entity for us that started just within the past year. As that becomes more developed and mature, we will provide greater financial information with comparable information period to period. We are pleased with the progress that we've seen there. Again, we started that partnership in that company with the idea that there was a lack of timely appraisals in certain parts of the country. It has expanded to a few different parts of the country and will continue next year. But again, it's just kind of up and running and getting going and we will provide more information the future, but we are excited about the prospects there.

One thing, Jesus, you can infer financially is we talked about this in the second quarter. When we consolidated -- when we consolidate the revenues and expenses of this, you can see, in the second-quarter call, we told you the $0.25 million step up in our compensation expense line was attributable to the compensation expenses of Contour at that point in time. So you can kind of approximate that the comp is roughly $0.25 million a quarter; at least it was in the second quarter and it's probably at that or might be modestly more than that now. The lion's share of the increase in our compensation expense was driven by that.

Great. That's great color. Thank you very much. Just getting back to credit, you mentioned there was a decline in substandard loans but at the same time there was an increase in special mention. If you could offer any color around that dynamic. Was it loans coming off of substandard that increased the special mention? Was there any one area or category that caused the increase in special mention?

Nothing systemic or related to any industries. Again, when we have so few substandard assets or delinquent loans, the reality is one or just a small handful of loans moving from one category to the other can move numbers. From that perspective, again, we continue to say that we could see adverse conditions in the future, so the fact that things went the other direction this quarter is just in some ways an anomaly. I wouldn't focus too much on those small, modest changes within those categories.

You mentioned the normalized 1% DQ rate over time. In terms of a normalized provision, what should we expect over the long term there?

It would really depend on the makeup of how delinquencies would get back up to that level. Obviously, we have booked specific allowance for losses and general allowance for losses. If there was a general degradation such that as you see delinquencies you also see a trend toward higher substandard assets, you would see additional provisions to the allowance. We would obviously cater our disclosure to what we are seeing in the portfolio as that allowance -- if that allowance were to rise. In a normalized period over the course of our history, in my experience at Farmer Mac, to have a $1 million of allowance or a little bit more in any particular quarter get put into the allowance for losses would not be anything that we would deem to be out of the ordinary.

In the business where we are extending credit, we expect that over time we will have some losses and obviously delinquencies. Fortunately, we are in industries that perform very well. Over time, our credit profile has been the cornerstone of our success.

One last question on credit. Before you provided an update on your exposure to the drought footprint in the California footprint. Do you have an update on that? Can you comment, are any delinquencies currently flagged as delinquent loans, are there any within the drought footprint?

I'm sure we do have some delinquencies in the footprint but we don't have anything that I would attribute specifically to the drought. We haven't seen any categorical decline in the credit in those areas. As we disclose, we do keep in pretty close touch, given the conditions out there with industry players and people we do business with, particularly in California and the Western states. We hear generally a consistent theme that yes, there are certainly areas where the drought is a challenge and for some producers it's more of a challenge than for others. At the same time, we haven't seen producers in our portfolio, anything bubbling up to the point where it's a specific concern.

We continue to monitor the conditions. I think we said in our disclosures is pretty much the same situation that we saw at the end of second quarter. Again, hopefully it will be a good -- hopefully we will get some rain and snow back over the winter will improve and we look forward to that occurring. If it continues out in the future, we will continue to update our disclosures and what we see in the portfolio.

Thank you so much for taking my questions.

This concludes our question-and-answer session. Actually we do have a follow-up question. We have a follow-up from Chas Tyson from KBW.

Just wanted to ask one more on the buyback. How are you thinking about that? What kind of evaluation methodologies do you use to try to determine when you think your shares are undervalued, and how should we think about that going forward?

That's going to be a classic return calculation, Chas, where we look at it and we say, do we think the valuation multiples at which we can acquire those would reward our remaining shareholders with a material amount of accretion such that it would be worth the capital trade. When we look at all the ways we can provide returns to shareholders, we can put that capital to work by originating program assets, we can increase dividend payment to stockholders or we can repurchase shares. Obviously, when we are trading at a five times PE multiple, the math of that's pretty straightforward. Trading well below book value when we launched the program, I think we were trading at 72% of book value at that point in time. So I think, we haven't set any concrete parameters beyond which we wouldn't buy the shares, but we are still trading below book value. We are still trading at a low PE multiple, so when you look at the various portfolio metrics, it's still advantageous to repurchase shares and probably will continue to see us do that like we have in the recent weeks.

Got it. One more on the revolving floating rate facility with the CFC. Should we think that the spreads for that are pretty in line with the overall Rural Utility spreads? As we think about the contribution of the fixed-rate fee when we are modeling, is that significant all if we are trying to model an increased draw on that? Should we just be thinking that all incremental spread from there?

The fee is modest. It's sort of in line with what -- or below what you might think of as a bank-line fee. We haven't disclosed exactly what it is. It's not in our Q, but it's a very modest fee and it's on the full facility amount whether it's drawn are undrawn. So we get that fee over the course of the year. We do get fees on undrawn balance and again, those are going to be in line where we might be expected to fund CFC on a wholesale AgVantage basis.

When you think of the spreads, it's not spreads on the RU line of business like loans, it's going to be spreads consistent with AgVantage funding. CFC does get very competitive funding on the short end of the curve in particular, so this is sort of a surrogate to that. The spreads aren't significant. They are in the context of what our shorter-term AgVantage spreads on Institutional Credit are and those generally range from -- they can be as low as 20 basis points to as high as 40 basis points in that maturity, depending on credit rating. So it's in that range.

Okay. That's helpful. That's all for me.

Having no further questions, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Buzby for any closing remarks.

Thanks to everyone for listening and participating this morning. We look forward to our next call to report our fourth-quarter 2015 results in March. Thank you very much.

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.