美國家庭壽險 (AFL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Aflac Inc. First-Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加 Aflac Inc. 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would like now to turn the conference over to David Young, Vice President of Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在我想將會議交給資本市場副總裁 David Young。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome. Thank you for joining us for Aflac Incorporated's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. This morning, Dan Amos, Chairman and CEO of Aflac Incorporated, will provide an overview of our results and operations in Japan and the United States. Then Max Broden, Senior Executive Vice President and CFO of Aflac Incorporated, will provide more detail on our first quarter financial results, current capital and liquidity. These topics are also addressed in the materials we posted with our earnings release, financial supplement and quarterly CFO video update on investors.aflac.com.

早上好，歡迎光臨。感謝您參加 Aflac Incorporated 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天上午，Aflac Incorporated 董事長兼執行長 Dan Amos 將概述我們在日本和美國的業績和營運情況。隨後，Aflac Incorporated 高級執行副總裁兼財務長 Max Broden 將詳細介紹我們的第一季財務表現、流動資本和流動性。我們在 investors.aflac.com 上發布的收益報告、財務補充和季度 CFO 視訊更新資料中也討論了這些主題。

For Q&A today, we are also joined by Virgil Miller, President of Aflac Incorporated and Aflac US; Charles Lake, Chairman and Representative Director, President of Aflac International; Masatoshi Koide, President and Representative Director, Aflac Life Insurance Japan; and Brad Dyslin, Global Chief Investment Officer, President of Aflac Global Investments. Before we begin, some statements in this teleconference are forward-looking within the meaning of federal securities laws. Although we believe these statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that they will prove to be accurate because they are prospective in nature. Actual results could differ materially from those we discuss today. We encourage you to look at our annual report on Form 10-K for some of the various risk factors that could materially impact our results.

今天的問答環節，我們也邀請了 Aflac Incorporated 和 Aflac US 總裁 Virgil Miller；查爾斯·萊克 (Charles Lake)，Aflac International 董事長兼代表董事、總裁；小出正敏 (Masatoshi Koide)，日本 Aflac 人壽保險總裁兼代表董事；以及 Aflac Global Investments 總裁、全球首席投資官布拉德·迪斯林 (Brad Dyslin)。在我們開始之前，本次電話會議中的一些聲明在聯邦證券法的定義範圍內具有前瞻性。儘管我們認為這些陳述是合理的，但我們無法保證它們的準確性，因為它們本質上是前瞻性的。實際結果可能與我們今天討論的結果有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看我們的 10-K 表格年度報告，以了解可能對我們的結果產生重大影響的各種風險因素。

As I mentioned earlier, the earnings release with reconciliations of certain non-US GAAP measures and related earnings materials are available on investors.aflac.com. I'll now hand the call over to Dan. Dan?

正如我之前提到的，包含某些非美國 GAAP 指標調節的收益報告和相關收益資料可在 investors.aflac.com 上查閱。我現在將電話交給丹。擔？

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. We're glad you joined us. Although we just have 1 quarter under our belt, the first quarter marked a good start for the year. Aflac Incorporated reported net earnings per diluted share of $0.05, which was significantly impacted by net investment losses this quarter compared to net investment gains in the first quarter of 2024. At the same time, the company reported adjusted earnings per diluted share of $1.66, which is unchanged from the first quarter of 2024.

謝謝你，大衛，大家早安。我們很高興您加入我們。儘管我們只經歷了一個季度，但第一季標誌著今年的一個好開始。Aflac Incorporated 公佈每股攤薄淨收益為 0.05 美元，與 2024 年第一季的淨投資收益相比，本季淨投資損失對其產生了顯著影響。同時，該公司報告調整後每股攤薄收益為 1.66 美元，與 2024 年第一季持平。

Beginning with Aflac Japan, I am pleased with the 12.6% year-over-year sales increase. This quarter sales reflected a continued significant contribution consuming costs and a 6.3% increase from cancer insurance sales, taking into account Japan's demographics and product strategy is to fit the needs of customers throughout all stages of life. Acquiring younger customers is critical to our success. We believe Sumito helped us appeal to and more importantly, reach younger customers in Japan. Our strong sales in Japan reflect the success our agencies have had selling Sumitas.

從 Aflac Japan 開始，我對 12.6% 的同比增長感到滿意。本季銷售額反映了成本消耗的持續顯著貢獻以及癌症保險銷售額 6.3% 的成長，同時考慮到日本的人口統計和產品策略，以滿足各個生命階段客戶的需求。獲得年輕客戶對於我們的成功至關重要。我們相信住友幫助我們吸引了日本的年輕客戶，更重要的是，接觸到了他們。我們在日本的強勁銷售業績反映了我們的代理商在銷售 Sumitas 方面取得的成功。

As the pioneer of cancer insurance and leading third sector insurer, we also aim to sell these Sumitas policyholders a medical policy or cancer policy. We have also launched the initial stage of sales in Merito, our newest cancer insurance on March 17. While it is still very early, the results that we have seen thus far have been positive. As of April 21, the product has been available through all of Japan's sales channels. Our ability to maintain strong premium persistency is a testament to Aflac's reputation and customer recognition of the value of our products.

作為癌症保險的先驅和領先的第三部門保險公司，我們還旨在向這些 Sumitas 保單持有人出售醫療保單或癌症保單。我們也於 3 月 17 日啟動了最新癌症保險 Merito 的初始銷售階段。雖然現在還為時過早，但迄今為止我們看到的結果是積極的。截至4月21日，該產品已在日本所有銷售管道上架。我們能夠保持強勁的保費持續性，證明了 Aflac 的聲譽和客戶對我們產品價值的認可。

By maintaining this level of persistency and adding new premium through sales, we are partially offsetting the impact of reinsurance and policies reaching paid-up status. This will be vital to our future growth of Aflac Japan. Turning to Aflac US. I was pleased by the 3.5% year-over-year increase in sales and encouraged by the momentum we are seeing within all areas of our group business, especially our group life and disability. As well as network (inaudible).

透過維持這種持續性水準並透過銷售增加新的保費，我們部分抵消了再保險和保單達到付清狀態的影響。這對 Aflac Japan 的未來發展至關重要。轉向 Aflac US。我很高興看到銷售額年增 3.5%，我們集團業務各個領域，尤其是團體人壽和殘障保險領域的發展勢頭令我感到鼓舞。以及網路（聽不清楚）。

In addition, we believe our efforts to drive more profitable growth with a stronger underwriting discipline have contributed to our strong premium persistency and net earned premiums growth. At the same time, Aflac US has maintained its prudent approach to expense management and maintaining a strong pretax margin as MAX will expand on in a moment. In both Japan and the United States, I believe that consumers need the products and solutions, Aflac offers more than ever for our policyholders who become claimants. Aflac is more than an insurance company.

此外，我們相信，我們透過加強承保紀律來推動更多獲利成長的努力，有助於我們實現強勁的保費持續性和淨保費成長。同時，由於 MAX 即將擴張，Aflac US 仍保持著審慎的費用管理方式，並維持了強勁的稅前利潤率。我相信，無論是在日本還是美國，消費者都需要 Aflac 為成為索賠人的保單持有人提供的產品和解決方案，比以往任何時候都多。Aflac 不僅僅是一家保險公司。

We are a partner in Health, a supporter of families during their times of need and a pioneer and leader in the industry. We are leveraging every opportunity to convey how our products can help fill the gaps during challenging times, providing not just financial assistance, but also compassion and care. At the same time, we continue to generate strong capital and cash flows while maintaining our commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management.

我們是健康領域的合作夥伴、家庭需要時的支持者以及業界的先驅和領導者。我們正在利用一切機會來傳達我們的產品如何在困難時期幫助填補空白，不僅提供經濟援助，還提供同情和關懷。同時，我們繼續產生強勁的資本和現金流，同時保持對審慎的流動性和資本管理的承諾。

We have been very pleased with our investments, which have continued to produce strong net investment income. As an insurance company, our primary responsibility is to fulfill the promises we make to the policyholders while being responsive to the needs of our shareholders.

我們對我們的投資感到非常滿意，這些投資持續產生強勁的淨投資收益。作為一家保險公司，我們的首要責任是履行對保單持有人的承諾，同時回應股東的需求。

Our solid portfolio supports our promise to our policyholders as does our commitment to maintaining strong capital ratios. We balance this financial strength with tactical capital deployment. I am very happy with how management has handled capital deployment and liquidity and specifically how well we've adapted to this environment. In the first quarter, Aflac Inc. deployed $900 million in capital to repurchase 8.5 million shares of our stock.

我們穩健的投資組合支持了我們對保單持有人的承諾，也支持了我們維持強勁資本比率的承諾。我們透過戰術資本部署來平衡這種財務實力。我對管理階層處理資本部署和流動性的方式感到非常滿意，特別是我們對這種環境的適應程度。第一季度，Aflac Inc. 投入 9 億美元資金回購了 850 萬股股票。

Additionally, we treasure our track record of 42 consecutive years of dividend growth at the same time. We have maintained our position among companies with the highest return on capital and the lowest cost of capital in the industry, combined with dividends. This means we delivered $1.2 billion back to the shareholders in the first quarter of 2025.

此外，我們同時珍惜連續42年股利成長的業績紀錄。我們一直保持著業界資本回報率最高、資本成本最低以及股息最高的公司地位。這意味著我們在 2025 年第一季向股東返還了 12 億美元。

We believe in the underlying strength of our business and our potential for continued growth in Japan and the United States, two of the largest life insurance markets in the world. On an ongoing basis, we are taking action to reinforce our leading position and build on our momentum.

我們相信，我們的業務具有強大的實力，並且在日本和美國這兩個全球最大的人壽保險市場中具有持續成長的潛力。我們正在不斷採取行動，鞏固我們的領先地位並保持發展勢頭。

I will now turn the program over to Max to cover more details of the financial results. Max?

現在我將節目交給 Max 來介紹財務結果的更多細節。最大限度？

Thank you, Dan. Thank you for joining me, as I'll provide a financial update on Aflac Incorporated results for the first quarter of 2025. For the quarter, adjusted earnings per diluted share was flat year-over-year at $1.66, with a $0.01 negative impact from FX in the quarter. In this quarter, remeasurement gains on reserves totaled $41 million, reducing benefits. Variable investment income ran $27 million below our long-term return expectations, while one make (inaudible) generated income of $16 million.

謝謝你，丹。感謝您的參與，我將提供有關 Aflac Incorporated 2025 年第一季業績的財務更新。本季度，調整後每股攤薄收益與去年同期持平，為 1.66 美元，本季外匯影響為 0.01 美元。本季度，準備金重估收益總計 4,100 萬美元，減少了收益。可變投資收益比我們的長期回報預期低 2700 萬美元，而一項投資（聽不清楚）產生了 1600 萬美元的收益。

Adjusted book value per share, excluding foreign currency remeasurement increased 2.2%. The adjusted ROE was 12.7% and 15.6%, excluding foreign currency remeasurement, an acceptable spread to our cost of capital. Overall, we view these results in the quarter as solid. Starting with our Japan segment. Net and premiums for the quarter declined 5%.

調整後的每股帳面價值（不包括外幣重估）成長 2.2%。調整後的 ROE 為 12.7%，不包括外幣重估，為 15.6%，與我們的資本成本之間存在可接受的利差。整體而言，我們認為本季的業績穩健。從我們的日本分部開始。本季淨利潤和保費下降了 5%。

Aflac Japan's underlying earned premiums, which adjusts net earned premiums to exclude the impact of deferred profit liability, paid-up policies and reinsurance declined 1.4%. We believe this metric better provides insight into long-term premium trends. Japan's total benefit ratio came in at 65.8% for the quarter, down 120 basis points year-over-year. The third sector benefit ratio was 56.3% for the quarter, down approximately 120 basis points year-over-year. We estimate the impact from remeasurement gains to be approximately 150 basis points favorable to the benefit ratio in Q1 2025.

Aflac Japan 的基本已賺保費（調整淨已賺保費以排除遞延利潤負債、已付保單和再保險的影響）下降了 1.4%。我們相信這項指標能夠更好地洞察長期保費趨勢。日本本季總福利比率為 65.8%，年減 120 個基點。本季第三部門效益率為56.3%，年減約120個基點。我們估計，重估收益的影響將對 2025 年第一季的收益率產生約 150 個基點的有利影響。

Long-term experience trends as it related to treatment of cancer and hospitalization continue to be in place, leading to continued favorable underwriting experience. Persistency remained solid at 93.8%. We which is up 40 basis points year-over-year and in line with our expectations. However, beginning in this quarter, we have revised the premium persistency definition to better reflect the economic trends for the business. As a result, we do not treat annuitization as a lapse for persistency purposes.

與癌症治療和住院相關的長期經驗趨勢持續存在，從而帶來持續良好的承保經驗。持久性仍然穩定在 93.8%。這比去年同期上漲了 40 個基點，符合我們的預期。然而，從本季開始，我們修改了保費持續性定義，以更好地反映業務的經濟趨勢。因此，我們不會將年金化視為持久性目的的失效。

And this revised definition raised the reported persistency by roughly 30 basis points. Our expense ratio in Japan was 19.6% for the quarter, up 160 basis points year-over-year, driven primarily by an increase in technology expenses.

修訂後的定義將報告的持續性提高了約 30 個基點。本季我們在日本的費用率為 19.6%，較去年同期上升 160 個基點，主要原因是技術費用增加。

For the quarter, adjusted net investment income in yen terms was down 7.6%, primarily driven by lower floating rate income, the transfer of assets to a like ReBermuda associated with reinsurance and variable investment income, somewhat offset by higher returns from the structured private credit portfolio. The pretax margin for Japan in the quarter was 31.8%, down 100 basis points year-over-year, but a very good result. Turning to US results. Net earned premium was up 1.8%, persistency increased 60 basis points year-over-year to 79.3%.

本季度，以日圓計算的調整後淨投資收入下降了 7.6%，主要原因是浮動利率收入下降、將資產轉移到與再保險和可變投資收入相關的 ReBermuda 等機構，但結構化私人信貸投資組合的回報率有所提高，在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。本季日本的稅前利潤率為 31.8%，年減 100 個基點，但這是一個非常好的結果。轉向美國的結果。淨保費收入成長 1.8%，繼續率年增 60 個基點至 79.3%。

Our US total benefit ratio came in at 47.7%, 120 basis points higher than Q1 2024, driven by business mix and lower remeasurement gains than a year ago. We estimate that the remeasurement gains impacted the benefit ratio by approximately 100 basis points in the quarter as claims have remained below our long-term expectations.

我們的美國總福利比率達到 47.7%，比 2024 年第一季高出 120 個基點，這得益於業務組合和重估收益低於一年前。我們估計，由於索賠金額仍低於我們的長期預期，重估收益對本季的福利比率產生了約 100 個基點的影響。

In the quarter, we benefited from favorable underwriting on our small but growing long-term disability block. Our expense ratio in the US was 37.6%, down 110 basis points year-over-year, primarily driven by platforms improving scale and continuous focus on expense efficiency. Our growth initiatives, group life and disability, network down ambition and direct-to-consumer increase our total expense ratio by 50 basis points for the quarter. This is in line with our expectations, and we would expect this impact to decrease as we continue to approach scale.

本季度，我們受益於規模雖小但不斷增長的長期殘障保險的有利承保。我們在美國的費用率為 37.6%，年減 110 個基點，主要由於平台規模擴大和持續關注費用效率。我們的成長計劃、團體人壽和殘疾保險、網路下調目標以及直接面向消費者使我們本季度的總費用率提高了 50 個基點。這符合我們的預期，我們預計隨著我們繼續擴大規模，這種影響將會減少。

Adjusted net investment income in the US was down 1.9% for the quarter, primarily driven by lower floating rate income. Profitability in the US segment was very strong with a pretax margin of 20.8%, a 20 basis points decline compared to a year ago. During the quarter, we increased our CECL reserves associated with our commercial real estate portfolio by $2 million net of charge-offs as property values remain at distressed valuations.

本季美國調整後淨投資收入下降 1.9%，主要原因是浮動利率收入下降。美國分部的獲利能力非常強勁，稅前利潤率為 20.8%，比去年同期下降了 20 個基點。在本季度，由於房地產價值仍處於困境估值，我們將與商業房地產投資組合相關的 CECL 儲備金增加了 200 萬美元（扣除沖銷額）。

We also foreclosed on two loans, adding them to our real estate owned portfolio, consistent with our strategy for maximizing recovery values. Our portfolio of first lien senior secured middle market loans continue to perform well with increased CECL reserves of $7 million in the quarter, net of charge-offs. In our corporate segment, we recorded a pretax gain of $43 million. Adjusted net investment income was $47 million higher than last year due to a combination of lower volume of tax credit investments and higher asset balances, which included the impact of the reinsurance transaction in Q4 2024.

我們還取消了兩筆貸款，將其添加到我們的房地產投資組合中，這符合我們最大化回收價值的策略。我們的第一留置權優先擔保中型市場貸款組合繼續表現良好，扣除沖銷後，本季 CECL 儲備增加了 700 萬美元。在我們的企業部門，我們實現了 4,300 萬美元的稅前收益。調整後的淨投資收入比去年高出 4,700 萬美元，原因是稅收抵免投資額減少和資產餘額增加（其中包括 2024 年第四季再保險交易的影響）。

Our tax credit investments impacted the corporate net investment income line for US GAAP purposes negatively by $8 million in the quarter with an associated credit to the tax line. The net impact to our bottom line was a positive $0.4 million in the quarter.

我們的稅收抵免投資對本季度美國 GAAP 的企業淨投資收益線產生了 800 萬美元的負面影響，併計入了稅收線。本季對我們的底線的淨影響為 40 萬美元。

To date, these investments are performing well and in line with our expectations. Unencumbered holding company liquidity stood at $4.3 billion, $2.6 billion above our minimum balance. We repurchased $900 million of our own stock and paid dividends of $317 million in Q1, offering good relative IRR on these capital deployments.

到目前為止，這些投資表現良好，符合我們的預期。未支配的控股公司流動資金為 43 億美元，比我們的最低餘額高出 26 億美元。我們在第一季回購了價值 9 億美元的自有股票，並支付了 3.17 億美元的股息，這些資本配置提供了良好的相對 IRR。

We will continue to be flexible and tactical in how we manage the balance sheet and deploy capital in order to drive strong risk-adjusted ROE with a meaningful spread to our cost of capital. Our capital position remained strong, and we ended the quarter with an SMR above 950%, an estimated regulatory ESR above 250%. Our combined RBC, while not finalized, we estimate to be greater than 600%. These are strong capital ratios, which we actively monitor, stress and manage to withstand credit cycles as well as external shocks.

我們將繼續在管理資產負債表和部署資本方面採取靈活和策略性的做法，以推動強勁的風險調整後股本回報率，並顯著提高資本成本。我們的資本狀況依然強勁，本季末我們的 SMR 超過 950%，預計監管 ESR 超過 250%。我們的合併 RBC 雖然尚未最終確定，但我們估計將超過 600%。這些都是強大的資本比率，我們積極監控、強調並設法抵禦信貸週期以及外部衝擊。

For US statutory, we recorded a $6 million valuation allowance on mortgage loans as an unrealized loss. We ended the quarter March 31, with net JPY 5.2 billion of Japan FSA realized gains net of losses for securities impairment. This is well within our expectations and with limited impact to both earnings and capital. Our leverage was 20.7% for the quarter, which is within our target range of 20% to 25%. As we hold approximately 59% of our debt in yen, this leverage ratio is impacted by mills in the yen-dollar exchange rate.

對於美國法定規定，我們將 600 萬美元的抵押貸款估值準備金記錄為未實現損失。截至 3 月 31 日的季度，日本金融服務管理局實現淨收益扣除證券減損損失後為 52 億日圓。這完全符合我們的預期，對收益和資本的影響有限。本季我們的槓桿率為 20.7%，處於我們的 20% 至 25% 的目標範圍內。由於我們持有的約 59% 的債務是日圓，因此此槓桿率受到日圓兌美元匯率的影響。

This is intentional and part of our enterprise hedging program protecting the economic value of Aflac Japan in US dollar terms. On a US GAAP basis, we are impacted by moves in Yen as our Yen-denominated earnings will translate into US dollars at different exchange rates.

這是有意為之，也是我們企業對沖計劃的一部分，旨在以美元計算保護 Aflac Japan 的經濟價值。根據美國公認會計準則，我們會受到日圓變動的影響，因為我們以日圓計價的收益將按照不同的匯率轉換為美元。

We currently estimate that every JPY 5 to the dollar move would impact our underlying EPS by roughly $0.07. As foreign currency markets have experienced a marked increase in volatility, I would like to reiterate our approach to managing foreign currency exposure. Fundamentally, we size our unhedged US dollar exposure to the estimated economic surplus associated with our Japanese business. At the end of Q1, we held $25.5 billion of unhedged US dollar assets in our Japan general account Forward contracts at Inc, with a notional balance of $2.7 billion, and $4.4 billion of yen-denominated debt. We also hold $24.2 billion of notional out-of-the-money put options, which provide tail protection against a large appreciation in the Yen. Adding this up, we feel that we are very well positioned on an economic basis. I'll now turn the call over to David to begin Q&A.

我們目前估計，日圓兌美元匯率每變動 5 美元，就會對我們的每股盈餘產生約 0.07 美元的影響。由於外匯市場波動性明顯增加，我想重申我們管理外匯風險的方法。從根本上來說，我們根據與日本業務相關的預期經濟盈餘來衡量未對沖的美元風險敞口。截至第一季末，我們在日本一般帳戶遠期合約持有 255 億美元未對沖美元資產，名目餘額為 27 億美元，以及 44 億美元的日圓計價債務。我們也持有價值 242 億美元的名目價外看跌選擇權，為日圓大幅升值提供尾部保護。綜合以上這些，我們覺得我們的經濟基礎非常好。現在我將把電話轉給大衛開始問答環節。

Thank you, Max. Before we begin our Q&A, we ask that you please limit yourself to 1 initial question and a related follow-up. You may then rejoin the queue to ask additional questions. We'll now take the first question.

謝謝你，馬克斯。在我們開始問答之前，請您將問題限制在 1 個初始問題和一個相關的後續問題。然後您可以重新加入隊列以詢問其他問題。我們現在來回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Tom Gallagher, Evercore ISI.

湯姆·加拉格爾，Evercore ISI。

Hey, good morning. Max, just had a few questions on Japan solvency and overall macro sensitivities. I guess my first question is -- why did the ESR ratio declined by so much in Q1? If I just look at the sensitivities, I think the sharp rise in Japan rates should have offset the strengthening of the yen. Anyway, I'll start with that, and then I have a follow-up. Thanks.

嘿，早安。馬克斯，我剛才對日本的償付能力和整體宏觀敏感度有幾個問題。我想我的第一個問題是——為什麼 ESR 比率在第一季下降了這麼多？如果只看敏感性，我認為日本利率的大幅上升應該已經抵消了日圓的走強。無論如何，我將從這個開始，然後再進行後續跟進。謝謝。

Thank you, Tom. I appreciate the question. You're right that in the first quarter, we saw a small drop in our ESR and that is driven by the Yen strengthening that you saw. That is partially offset by higher Japan interest rates, especially the 30-year GDP rose in the first quarter, and that certainly helped us. That being said, we also had relatively high dividends flowing up from Aflac Japan to Aflac Inc.

謝謝你，湯姆。我很感謝你提出這個問題。您說得對，在第一季度，我們的 ESR 確實出現了小幅下降，這是由於日圓走強所致。這在某種程度上被日本利率上升所抵消，尤其是第一季30年來GDP的成長，這無疑對我們有幫助。話雖如此，從 Aflac Japan 流向 Aflac Inc. 的股息也相對較高。

during the quarter as well. And that's the reason why you see the cash balances at Inc. increasing as much as they did despite very significant capital deployment in terms of dividends and buybacks in the quarter. So -- that's the -- I think that's the missing piece is the dividends flowing up to the holding company.

本季也是如此。這就是為什麼儘管本季在股息和回購方面進行了非常大的資本部署，但你仍然會看到公司的現金餘額大幅增加。所以——這就是——我認為缺失的部分是流向控股公司的股利。

That makes sense, Max. And then my follow-up is just in light of everything that's changed macro wise with the yen now strengthening and looking at where long rates are in Japan. Have you -- I guess, how should we think about that when you think about forward capital planning? Do you still feel that drawing down excess and returning it is the best path forward you still have considerable excess so I'm not suggesting you down. But I guess the volatility of capital seems kind of on the high side when they think about sensitivities to what's happened in macro recently.

這很有道理，馬克斯。然後，我的後續行動只是考慮到宏觀方面發生的所有變化，例如日圓現在走強，並關注日本的長期利率。您是否—我想，當您考慮前瞻性資本規劃時，我們應該如何考慮這一點？您是否仍認為減少並返還過剩資金是最好的出路？您仍然有相當多的過剩資金，所以我不建議您減少。但我想，當他們考慮到最近宏觀經濟的敏感度時，資本的波動性似乎有點偏高。

So just curious, are you looking maybe to change philosophy at all on capital return and/or how about just the way you're hedging this? Because I think right now, you have some very deep added the money hedges, any any thought of maybe locking in all of that capital strength or are you fine with the structure you have?

所以只是好奇，您是否希望改變資本回報的概念和/或您對沖的方式如何？因為我認為現在，你已經對資金進行了非常深入的對沖，有沒有想過可能鎖定所有的資本實力，或者你對現有的結構滿意嗎？

So Tom, when we design our capital management, it's really done with a long-term view. It's done running many different scenarios, including stressed scenarios as well. So if you use that as a base, that means that fundamentally, we are not changing the way we are doing our capital management or in a way we are structuring the different instruments that we use for it. And I want to take you back and just think through the underlying business that we conduct, which we sell products that are relatively defensive in the way they behave that going through lapsation, that going through volatility in benefit ratios and underlying profitability as well. That is mirrored up with relatively low asset leverage, which means that the risks associated with our asset portfolio are somewhat limited as well.

所以湯姆，當我們設計資本管理時，我們確實要從長遠角度來考慮。它可以運行許多不同的場景，包括壓力場景。因此，如果以此為基礎，那就意味著從根本上來說，我們不會改變我們進行資本管理的方式，也不會改變我們用於資本管理的不同工具的建構方式。我想讓你們回顧一下我們開展的基礎業務，我們銷售的產品在行為方式上相對具有防禦性，會經歷失效、收益比率和基礎盈利能力的波動。這反映出相對較低的資產槓桿，這意味著與我們的資產組合相關的風險也受到一定限制。

And when you bake all of that together, it means that our profitability and cash flows are relatively stable and predictable. Now you point out 1 item, and that is the volatility of our ESR as it relates to FX. And that is something that we have designed ourselves. So when we protect the economic value of Aflac Japan, the main component of that is the $25.7 billion held in US dollars on our Japanese balance sheet.

當所有這些因素綜合起來時，就意味著我們的獲利能力和現金流相對穩定且可預測。現在您指出了 1 項，那就是我們的 ESR 與外匯相關的波動性。這是我們自己設計的。因此，當我們保護 Aflac Japan 的經濟價值時，其中的主要組成部分是我們日本資產負債表上持有的 257 億美元美元。

And that is there to obviously help protect the long-term economics of our Aflac Japan business in US dollars, but it does introduce volatility to our ESR ratio. But what we have done is that we have protected details, i.e., we have looked at how much risk are we willing to take on as it relates to the e-volatility in the ESR ratio. And that's where we have executed a put option program where most of those puts are currently out of the money by 25% to 30% and that helps cut the tail and the volatility of those. These are one-sided -- that means that we have protection if the yen strengthens, but if the yen were to weaken, we keep all of that upside.

這顯然有助於以美元保護我們 Aflac 日本業務的長期經濟效益，但確實為我們的 ESR 比率帶來了波動。但我們所做的是保護細節，即我們研究了與 ESR 比率的電子波動性相關的我們願意承擔多大的風險。這就是我們執行看跌期權計劃的地方，其中大多數看跌期權目前處於價外狀態，幅度為 25% 至 30%，這有助於減少看跌期權的尾部和波動性。這些都是單方面的——這意味著如果日圓走強，我們就會受到保護，但如果日圓走弱，我們就會保留所有的上行空間。

So if I look at the moves that we have seen in rates, the movement we've seen in FX, I don't see at this point us making any significant changes to the way we are approaching this or hedging this. That being said, obviously, it's something that we closely monitor. And there may be tactical moves in the future around it. But I would I would assume that those are relatively minor in the scheme of things. So, so far, we feel like the FX hedging program is working very well and in line with our expectations.

因此，如果我觀察利率的變動和外匯的變動，我認為目前我們不會對處理或對沖這一問題的方式做出任何重大改變。話雖如此，顯然這是我們密切關注的事情。而未來可能還會圍繞此採取一些戰術舉措。但我認為從整體來看，這些都只是相對較小的事情。因此，到目前為止，我們認為外匯對沖計劃運作良好，符合我們的預期。

Jack Matten, BMO Capital Markets

傑克‧馬滕（Jack Matten），蒙特婁銀行資本市場

Hi, good morning. Just a question on the new cancer product launch. Can you talk about what you're seeing so far in the uplift of sales you saw this quarter? I know the launch in stages, so maybe you'd see more of a benefit in the second quarter as well. So just curious what your expectations are for sales of that product this year.

嗨，早安。我只是想問一下有關新抗癌產品發布的一個問題。您能談談本季銷售額目前的成長情況嗎？我知道發布會是分階段進行的，所以也許你會在第二季度看到更多的好處。所以我很好奇您對今年該產品的銷售預期是什麼。

Well, yes, let me make -- this is Dan. Let me make a couple of comments, and I'm going to turn it over to Aflac Japan. But just in general, I think that we're going to be fine. I think you're going to see these things. The new cancer policy continue to grow.

嗯，是的，讓我來告訴大家──這是丹。請允許我發表幾點評論，然後我將把發言權交給 Aflac Japan。但總的來說，我認為我們會沒事的。我想你會看到這些東西。新的癌症政策持續成長。

But all in all, I thought Virgil has spent a lot of time in this quarter in Japan. And I'd like for him to take a high-level view and go over both US and Japan and then have the Japanese operation talk about it, Yoshizumi can cover that and then follow up with Max and Brad on any comments they might have in those regards. So Virgil, why don't you just give a few comments, and then let's turn the program over to Japan.

但總而言之，我認為 Virgil 本季在日本花了很多時間。我希望他能從高層次的角度審視美國和日本的情況，然後讓日本的業務部門討論這個問題，吉住可以負責這方面事宜，然後跟進馬克斯和布拉德在這方面可能提出的任何評論。那麼 Virgil，為什麼不發表一些評論，然後我們將節目交給日本。

Yes. Well, thanks, Dan. I'll just make a few comments. It was a great visit I hand to Japan. And I would just say that as Mike's point earlier, our business is really more a view from a long-term perspective.

是的。好吧，謝謝，丹。我只想發表幾點評論。這是我到日本的一次很棒的旅行。我只想說，正如麥克之前所說，我們的業務實際上更多的是從長遠角度來看的。

And we remain confident in the strategies we have with our products and all services that what we have is what customers need and want. I think too, Dan, I would just add, though, that as you look at Japan, in particular, what we've done with the launch of the cancer product, also how we approach the market to the market with (inaudible) and the focus that we have on selling more third segment products is what will help us during this time. Yes, we do look at economic downturn. Max just shared with you about how we go through that methodology. But specifically on the cancer though.

我們對我們的產品和服務策略充滿信心，我們所提供的正是客戶所需要和想要的。我也這麼認為，丹，不過我只想補充一點，當你看日本時，特別是在推出癌症產品時，我們所做的工作，以及我們如何透過（聽不清楚）進入市場，以及我們對銷售更多第三細分市場產品的關注，這些都會對我們在這段時間有所幫助。是的，我們確實關注經濟衰退。馬克斯剛剛與你們分享了我們如何實施這個方法。但具體來說是針對癌症。

I'm going to let Japan talk about how the launch went into what we see for the remainder of the year. So I'm going to turn it over to you guys.

我將讓日本來談論此次發射的進展以及我們在今年剩餘時間內所看到的情況。所以我要把它交給你們。

(spoken in foreign language)Thank you for the question. I'm in charge with the marketing sales and let me take that question. (spoken in foreign language)

（外語）感謝您的提問。我負責行銷銷售，讓我來回答這個問題。（用外語說）

The new cancer reinsurance was just launched in May this year, but it is progressing as we expected. Sorry, correction, it was launched in March. Let me briefly talk about the characteristic of this new product. First, we have full and simple coverage. In addition to strengthening coverage, not only during but also before and after treatment, the qualification for payment of benefits have been changed to be easier to understand and it has the flexible coverage design that enables combination and cross-selling with existing policies and other products, i.e., add-on plans for those who already have medical insurance.

新的癌症再保險今年5月剛推出，但進展如我們預期。抱歉，更正一下，它是在三月推出的。我先簡單說一下這個新產品的特色。第一，覆蓋面廣，內容簡單。除了加強覆蓋範圍（不僅在治療期間，而且在治療之前和之後），支付福利的資格也已更改，以便更容易理解，並且具有靈活的覆蓋範圍設計，可以與現有保單和其他產品組合和交叉銷售，即為已經擁有醫療保險的人提供附加計劃。

On March 18, our sales was made available our main state associate channels, Daido and Daiichi. In April, we started the sales at bank channels in Japan Post Group. And all the channels have made a great start, and we are still seeing a positive result from all of these channels. And let me talk a little bit about our forecast for 2025. And we have changed the structure and in this January and established a new position with CMO, and this position will supervise the sales and marketing and all brands and we are responding to the ever-changing customer needs with an agility in a cross-functional way by engaging our IT, actuarial and policy service department and we are proud to see the successful marketing activity with the optimum activities conducted at each channel under the lead of the CMO and we are seeing a positive -- with this effort, we are seeing a positive result from cancer insurance that was launched in March.

3 月 18 日，我們的銷售透過主要的全國合作管道 Daido 和 Daiichi 開始。4月，我們開始在日本郵政集團的銀行通路進行銷售。所有管道都取得了良好的開端，我們仍然看到所有這些管道都取得了積極的成果。讓我簡單談談我們對 2025 年的預測。我們改變了結構，並於今年 1 月設立了新的首席營銷官 (CMO) 職位，該職位將負責監督銷售和營銷以及所有品牌，我們通過與 IT、精算和政策服務部門合作，以跨職能的方式靈活地應對不斷變化的客戶需求，我們很自豪地看到在首席營銷官的領導下，每個渠道都開展了成功地應對不斷變化的客戶需求，我們很自豪地看到在首席營銷官的領導下，每個渠道都開展了成功的營銷活動和最佳活動，我們看到了積極的活動，我們看到了這一努力的活動，我們看到了這一努力的活動，我們看到了這方面的積極活動，我們看到了積極的活動”

We believe the third sector sales continue to grow with now having a very extensive product lineup with [ Simitas ] and the new cancer insurance. And we are now also focusing on hiring activities at agents and mainstay associates. And with all these efforts, we expect that the 2025 sales will be above 2024. That's all.

我們相信，隨著 [ Simitas ] 和新的癌症保險等非常廣泛的產品陣容的出現，第三部門的銷售額將繼續增長。我們現在也專注於代理商和支柱合作夥伴的招募活動。透過所有這些努力，我們預計 2025 年的銷售額將超過 2024 年。就這樣。

And then just a follow-up on the medical insurance market in Japan. I mean can you talk about competitive dynamics there and how you see the outlook for sales of your medical product.

然後是關於日本醫療保險市場的後續報告。我的意思是，您能談談那裡的競爭動態以及您如何看待醫療產品的銷售前景嗎？

(spoken in foreign language) Let me talk about our competitor in (inaudible) First of all, about the third sector overall. Based on the latest data, we have the largest share of total new policies of cancer and medical insurance or core products in fiscal year 2023. In 2025, we expect to maintain our number 1 share of new policies by expanding sales of cancer and medical insurance. Let me talk about cancer reinsurance. Although competition has increased, we are a pioneer in cancer insurance having faced cancer for the longest time in Japan.

（用外語說）我來談談我們在（聽不清楚）的競爭對手首先，關於整個第三部門。根據最新數據，我們在2023財政年度癌症和醫療保險或核心產品的新保單總額中所佔份額最大。2025年，我們預計透過擴大癌症和醫療保險的銷售，維持新保單份額第一。我先來談談癌症再保險。雖然競爭日益激烈，但我們是日本對抗癌症時間最長的癌症保險先驅。

And the knowledge we have accumulated over 50 years of history is something no other company can have. We continue to provide services like (inaudible) consulting services, unique (inaudible) service that no other company offers in addition to insurance coverage. By doing so, we will meet the needs of our customers and maintain a competitive advantage and we aim to achieve further sales growth with the new cancer reinsurance product launch in March. And moving on to the medical insurance. The medical insurance sector is a much more competitive market in cancer reinsurance.

我們五十多年歷史所累積的知識是其他公司所無法擁有的。我們繼續提供諸如（聽不清楚）諮詢服務之類的服務，除了保險範圍之外，還有其他公司不提供的獨特的（聽不清楚）服務。透過這樣做，我們將滿足客戶的需求並保持競爭優勢，我們的目標是透過 3 月推出新的癌症再保險產品來實現進一步的銷售成長。接下來是醫療保險。醫療保險業在癌症再保險方面是一個競爭更激烈的市場。

This is largely due to the number -- large number of insurance companies entering the market and launching products. We will revise our product line every 2 years or so in order to gain a higher market share and under this intensified competition in the medical market, we will conduct some optimized activities on each channel and bring about the better results. And let me talk about the specific activities that were carried out in Q1. We have strengthened the training to our sales agents so that they can provide an easy-to-understand explanation to the consumers and with (inaudible) , we're proceeding the concurrent sales with the third sector products.

這主要是因為大量保險公司進入市場並推出產品。我們大約每兩年左右就會修改一次我們的產品線，以獲得更高的市場份額，並且在醫療市場競爭加劇的情況下，我們會在各個管道進行一些優化活動，帶來更好的效果。我先講一下第一季所進行的具體活動。我們加強了對銷售代理的培訓，以便他們能夠向消費者提供簡單易懂的解釋，並且（聽不清楚）我們正在進行與第三部門產品的同時銷售。

John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

約翰·巴尼奇、派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity to ask a question. So my question is focused on remeasurement gains. They continue to be present in both Japan and the US. We're further removed around the dislocation in individuals behavior. How should we be thinking about the waterfall or decay of remeasurement gains and will they primarily be concentrated in third quarter? Thank you.

早安.感謝您給我提問的機會。所以我的問題集中在重新計量收益。它們繼續存在於日本和美國。我們進一步消除了個人行為的混亂。我們應該如何看待重估收益的瀑布式成長或衰減，它們是否主要集中在第三季？謝謝。

Let me kick it off, and I'll also ask Alycia to maybe give some comments from her perspective as well. So obviously, the third quarter is when we unlock our actuarial assumptions. That means that the third quarter is when we will have the more significant remeasurement gains and losses associated with the claims patterns that we're seeing in the marketplace. In the other quarters, we are truing up the experience from those quarters. That means that they are generally going to be smaller.

讓我開始吧，我也想請 Alycia 從她的角度發表一些評論。顯然，第三季是我們解除精算假設的時候。這意味著，第三季我們將看到與我們在市場上看到的索賠模式相關的更顯著的重​​估收益和損失。在其他方面，我們正在鞏固這些方面的經驗。這意味著它們通常會變得更小。

That being said, we have experienced favorable claims utilization, both in the US and Japan, and this has been in place for a long time and it always -- it goes back to pre-LVPI as well where under legacy Gap. You did see this come through as IBNR releases, and that was feeding through into our benefit ratio. And now you're seeing it as remeasurement gains losses coming through under LVPI. So it's a continuation of -- especially in Japan, the long-term trends that we've been seeing there.

話雖如此，我們在美國和日本都經歷了良好的索賠利用率，而且這種情況已經存在很長時間了，而且它總是 - 可以追溯到 LVPI 之前以及在傳統 Gap 下。隨著 IBNR 的發布，您確實看到了這一點，並且它正在影響我們的收益率。現在，您看到的是 LVPI 下的重新計量收益損失。因此，這是一種延續——尤其是在日本，是我​​們在那裡看到的長期趨勢。

And in the US, to some extent, the shift in claims patterns that we've seen post-COVID. I'll stop there and see if Alycia, if you want to add any color from your perspective?

在美國，從某種程度上來說，我們看到了新冠疫情之後索賠模式的轉變。我就停在那裡，看看 Alycia，你是否想從你的角度添加一些顏色？

Thank you, Max. The only thing I'd add is that we do unlock our assumptions annually in the third quarter to reflect all of our best estimate actuarial expenses and our experience to date. And then you'll see that flow through the third quarter earnings. Thank you so much.

謝謝你，馬克斯。我唯一要補充的是，我們每年都會在第三季解鎖我們的假設，以反映我們所有最佳估計的精算費用和迄今為止的經驗。然後你會看到第三季收益的流向。太感謝了。

Thanks for the answers. That's it for me.

謝謝您的回答。對我來說就是這樣。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

Hey, good morning. So first, I had a question just along the lines of what you were commenting in terms of the dental or medical product in Japan, sales have been weak, and you've pointed out competitors coming out with maybe lower benefit type products and just that affecting your business. Should we assume that if the competitive environment stays the way it is, sales will muddle along at these levels? Or are you doing anything that would suggest that there could be a recovery because that line has been sort of steadily dropping over time?

嘿，早安。首先，我有一個問題，與您評論的日本牙科或醫療產品類似，銷售一直很疲軟，而且您指出競爭對手推出的產品可能效益較低，這會影響您的業務。我們是否應該假設，如果競爭環境維持現狀，銷售量將會維持在目前的水平？或者您正在做什麼來表明可能出現復甦，因為這條線隨著時間的推移一直在穩步下降？

I'm going to answer that. Let me just say that everything that we do tends to be cyclical in nature with a rebound of a new product and although we can't talk about that because of FSA and the way they operate, as Jimmy mentioned, every 2 years or so, we come back to the table with changes in the marketplace, whether it be consumers and what they want or need or medical treatments and what are happening, whether it's more outpatient than inpatient. Whatever it might be from a medical standpoint or even the cancer insurance standpoint. So this year is the year where cancer insurance should be dominating along with our new product. So we should continue to see that.

我要回答這個問題。我只想說，我們所做的一切往往具有周期性，新產品會反彈，儘管由於 FSA 及其運作方式的原因我們不能談論這一點，但正如 Jimmy 提到的，大約每兩年我們就會回到談判桌上討論市場的變化，無論是消費者的需求還是醫療治療的情況，無論是門診還是住院。無論從醫學角度或癌症保險角度來看它是什麼。因此，今年是癌症保險應該與我們的新產品一起佔據主導地位的一年。因此我們應該繼續看到這一點。

I can't stress enough how much we like what's going on in the life insurance area of adding new and younger policyholders that we've never had before. And that opens the opportunity to go back and add cancer and medical to them. So this year will be that. I think you can look for next year us to revisit which campaign we'll be looking at. But all in all, I'm very excited about us making our numbers this year in sales and believe we'll ultimately do that.

我不能過度強調我們對人壽保險領域正在發生的事情的熱愛，即增加我們以前從未有過的新的年輕保單持有人。這為我們回過頭來添加癌症和醫療內容提供了機會。今年也是如此。我認為您可以期待明年我們重新審視我們將關注哪些活動。但總而言之，我對我們今年的銷售業績感到非常興奮，並相信我們最終會做到這一點。

And the breakdown, although we continue to watch and monitor, it's the overall sales numbers that we want to see us achieve because the profit margins are there for our success long term.

儘管我們會繼續觀察和監控，但我們希望看到實現整體銷售數字，因為利潤率是我們長期成功的基礎。

Okay. And then just for Virgil on the dental business in the US, it seems like sales have stabilized following the change in the tech platform, but are you expecting normal production this year and open enrollment? Or is it more likely that, that will be next year?

好的。然後對於 Virgil 在美國牙科業務方面的情況，隨著技術平台的變化，銷售額似乎已經穩定下來，但您是否預計今年的生產將恢復正常並開放招生？或者更有可能的是，那會是明年？

Well, thanks, Jimmy, this is Virgil. I do expect us to have a consistent momentum. I mentioned in the fourth quarter, our focus is on stabilization of that platform, but making sure that the brokers and our veteran agents knew about that we were open for business. And we had a slow start there in Q4, but off to a much better start here in Q1. I can tell you a few things about that.

好吧，謝謝，吉米，我是維吉爾。我確實希望我們能保持持續的勢頭。我在第四季度提到過，我們的重點是穩定平台，但確保經紀人和我們的資深代理商知道我們已經開始營業。我們在第四季的開局比較慢，但在第一季的開局就好多了。我可以告訴你一些關於此事的事情。

We did invest and making sure we got the right talent. We hired some additional talent from the industry. We maintain the talent that we have there. We continue to invest in the technology to make sure we've got the best portals for the dentists that are doing business with us. As well as making sure there's an easy enrollment process for our agents of our brokers.

我們確實進行了投資並確保我們獲得了合適的人才。我們從業界聘請了一些額外的人才。我們保留了現有的人才。我們將繼續投資技術，以確保為與我們開展業務的牙醫提供最佳的入口網站。並確保我們的經紀人的代理商能夠輕鬆完成註冊流程。

And then the final thing I mentioned, though, is the partnership we launched that we had now flattish with SkyGen they're doing a great job of the administrative services that they're providing for us behind the scenes. They are industry-leading third-party administrator out there, and we're pleased with what we've seen. Now having said all of that, we have been going around to each market relating to ages now to try it. For those agents that sold the demo product in Q1 along with our voluntary benefits products, their sales were up 20%. My point is that, that's the strategy it works because we look at selling both together.

最後我要提到的是，我們與 SkyGen 建立了合作夥伴關係，他們在幕後為我們提供了出色的管理服務。他們是業界領先的第三方管理員，我們對所看到的感到滿意。現在說了這麼多，我們已經去各個市場嘗試了好幾年了。對於那些在第一季同時銷售我們的自願福利產品的代理商來說，他們的銷售額成長了 20%。我的觀點是，這是有效的策略，因為我們考慮將兩者一起銷售。

And I think that the more we get that message out, you will see that momentum carrying forward. I expect us to hit the plan that we set for this year, Jimmy.

我認為，我們越是傳播這一訊息，你就會看到這種勢頭不斷向前發展。我希望我們能夠實現今年制定的計劃，吉米。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

蘇尼特‧卡馬斯（Suneet Kamath），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Great, thanks. Max, I wanted to come back to the ESR and the one-way hedge that you have. Is that program designed to keep you at your ESR target -- or is it possible if we see the dollar weaken significantly before those options sort of kick in, your ESR ratio could fall below your target? Thanks.

太好了，謝謝。馬克斯，我想回到 ESR 和你所擁有的單向對沖。該計劃的目的是讓您保持 ESR 目標嗎？或者，如果我們看到美元在這些選擇生效之前大幅貶值，您的 ESR 比率是否有可能跌破目標？謝謝。

Thank you, Suneet. So that always depends a little bit on what your starting point is. Generally speaking, we originally designed this to size the risk associated with FX that we're willing to take on. And we generally sized that at around 40 to 45 ESR points. So that will give you a little bit of a sense for the impact and how we have overall size that program.

謝謝你，Suneet。所以這總是取決於你的起點是什麼。一般來說，我們最初設計這個是為了確定我們願意承擔的與外匯相關的風險。我們一般將其大小設定為 40 到 45 個 ESR 點左右。這樣您就可以稍微了解一下該計劃的影響以及我們的整體規模。

So that means that at that level, we are no longer having any significant FX volatility associated with our ESR. And our starting point today is, I ran these numbers this morning that we estimate that our ESR as of this morning is around 250%. So it's a good starting point for us.

這意味著，在那個水準上，我們不再有與 ESR 相關的任何顯著的外匯波動。我們今天的起點是，我今天早上計算了這些數字，我們估計截至今天早上我們的 ESR 約為 250%。所以這對我們來說是一個很好的起點。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I wanted to come back to something that we talked about last night in terms of the US weekly average producers. And I think 1 of the comments around why it was down year-over-year, I think, 11%.

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想回到昨晚我們討論的有關美國每周平均產量的問題。我認為其中一條評論是關於為什麼它比去年同期下降了 11%。

Is that more of your agents are selling other non-Aflac products. I just want to get a sense of how prevalent is that? How common is that? And does that create some issues for you in terms of the recovery in sales if they're focused on other companies' products.

你們的代理商中是否有更多人正在銷售其他非 Aflac 產品？我只是想了解這種現像有多普遍？這種現像有多常見？如果他們專注於其他公司的產品，這是否會為銷售復甦帶來一些問題？

Hey, no, this is Virgil. I'll take that question. I would say that it's anecdotal. I don't have any data for that. And here's what I mean by that.

嘿，不，這是維吉爾。我來回答這個問題。我想說這只是軼事。我沒有這方面的數據。我這麼說的意思如下。

We have engaged our veterans to look at their productivity. Now you can see overall, our productivity is up when looking at the fat supplement. And that's driven mainly by the production we've got from our veterans, but with brokers also that are in that number, and we're having success in larger case of Aflac. But when you look into the smaller cases, I mean accounts generally averaging less than 50 employees. This is where we need to focus.

我們已經與退伍軍人進行了接觸，以了解他們的生產力。現在您可以看到，總體而言，透過觀察脂肪補充劑，我們的生產力有所提高。這主要得益於我們的資深員工的貢獻，同時也得益於眾多經紀人的努力，我們在 Aflac 這一大型案例中取得了成功。但當你調查較小的案例時，我指的是帳戶平均員工人數通常少於 50 人。這是我們需要關注的地方。

And I think that comment was made, in particular, when we saw last year, our agents were having success with selling the dental product. If you look at the newest statistics that are out there from (inaudible) and from East bridge, dental and steel in the top 2 products that are being requested and being sold. So having said that, the so other carriers product. And when you sell that product, you tend to sell to other voluntary benefit products alongside it. What we have done this quarter, though, as I mentioned, is starting to see them return back had a 23% increase in dental sales for Q1.

我認為這個評論是特別提出的，當我們去年看到我們的代理商在銷售牙科產品方面取得了成功時。如果你看一下來自（聽不清楚）和東橋的最新統計數據，你會發現牙科和鋼鐵是需求量和銷售量排名前兩位的產品。話雖如此，其他業者也有類似的產品。當您銷售產品時，您傾向於同時銷售其他自願福利產品。不過，正如我所提到的，我們本季所做的就是開始看到他們的回歸，第一季的牙科銷售額成長了 23%。

And we -- again, I mentioned the Jimmy a few moments ago that when they set at dental, overall, they had a 20% overall sales increase for those agents sold it. What we're going to do this year is focus on those veterans. I made some comp incentives that are tied to that. We're going to explain to them that the dental is stable, is working and really get them back to selling back on a normal basis of Aflac. I have seen the momentum in Q1.

而且我們——我剛才再次提到，當 Jimmy 將其投放到牙科領域時，總體而言，銷售該產品的代理商的整體銷售額增長了 20%。我們今年要做的就是關注這些退伍軍人。我制定了一些與此相關的補償激勵措施。我們將向他們解釋牙科治療是穩定的、正在發揮作用的，並真正讓他們恢復正常銷售 Aflac。我已經看到了第一季的勢頭。

I expect that momentum to continue throughout the year.

我預計這一勢頭將持續全年。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Mr. Hurwitz, did you want to be unmuted?

赫爾維茲先生，您想取消靜音嗎？

So, hey, good morning. Sorry about that. On Sumita, I know you're targeting younger customers, but I believe in the past, you've indicated that existing customers were or a larger percentage of the sales last year. Is that still the case? Are you seeing more new and younger customers buy the product?

嘿，早安。很抱歉。關於 Sumita，我知道你們的目標客戶是較年輕的客戶，但我相信，你們過去曾表示，現有客戶在去年的銷售額中所佔比例較大。現在還是這樣嗎？您是否看到更多新客戶和年輕客戶購買該產品？

The short version is we're seeing more younger people buy the product. So that's what I'd give you is the answer.

簡而言之，我們看到越來越多的年輕人購買該產品。這就是我要給你的答案。

Okay. And then just shifting to NII, so last quarter you indicated there would be some pressure just given the floating rate portfolio which we saw. I'm just curious how you see NII trending through the rest of the year. Is there further impact from last year's rate rate cuts to still flow through?

好的。然後轉向 NII，所以上個季度您表示，考慮到我們所看到的浮動利率投資組合，會存在一些壓力。我只是好奇您如何看待 NII 在今年剩餘時間的趨勢。去年降息的影響是否還會持續？

Sure. Thank you, Joe. You're right. We have seen some pressure in first quarter. It's predominantly from the floating rate portfolio.

當然。謝謝你，喬。你說得對。我們在第一季看到了一些壓力。它主要來自浮動利率投資組合。

It's both a reduction in balances as well as the roughly 100 basis point decline we've seen in SOFR year-on-year. we're going to be facing that headwind throughout the year. The comps do get a little better later in the year when the differential in SOFR is less because of the Fed action to cut later in the year last year. We are taking steps to try to offset that. We're doing more things to reposition the portfolio to capture higher yields, both in Japan and the US

這既是餘額的減少，也是我們看到的 SOFR 年減約 100 個基點的下降。我們全年都會面臨這種逆風。由於聯準會去年稍晚採取降息行動，當 SOFR 的差異縮小時，今年稍後的可比價格確實會有所改善。我們正在採取措施試圖抵消這一影響。我們正在採取更多措施重新配置投資組合，以獲得更高的收益，無論是在日本還是在美國

We've also been able to deploy a significant amount of capital in first quarter and take advantage of the wider spreads. And we also took advantage of the wider spreads in April and deployed a significant amount. So we are facing that floating rate headwind, but we think we've got some things in the toolkit that's going to help us offset that.

我們還能夠在第一季部署大量資本並利用更大的利差。我們也利用了四月利差擴大的機會，部署了大量資金。因此，我們面臨著浮動利率的不利因素，但我們認為我們已經採取了一些措施來幫助我們抵消這個不利因素。

And Joel, just as a reminder that our floating rate portfolio, it resets with 1 month and 3-month SOFR.

喬爾，提醒一下，我們的浮動利率投資組合會根據 1 個月和 3 個月的 SOFR 進行重置。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Just to follow up, I wouldn't get the number. Over half of our sales are from younger people. So I wanted to validate that number for you. For Sumita, and that was a question you had. Thanks.

只是為了跟進，我沒有得到這個號碼。我們的銷售額有一半以上來自年輕人。所以我想為你驗證這個數字。對 Sumita 來說，這是你的一個問題。謝謝。

Ryan Krueger, KBW.

瑞安·克魯格（Ryan Krueger），KBW。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. One more question on the yen sensitivity. We've been talking mostly about the ESR impact from a strength in (inaudible). Can you talk more about the offset within the rest of the organization that would -- I believe, you're more economically insensitive on a consolidated basis?

嘿，謝謝。早安.還有一個關於日元敏感度的問題。我們主要討論的是 ESR 的影響，因為（聽不清楚）。您能否進一步談談組織其他部分內部的抵銷情況－我相信，從合併的角度來看，你們對經濟更加不敏感？

Yes, that's right. I mean the other components of this is that we hold $2.7 billion of forward contracts at the holding company. And obviously, as the yen strengthens, they will move more into us being out of the money on those forwards. Now we also hold roughly $4.4 billion of yen-denominated debt at the holding company as well. That means that when the yen moves, our leverage will move with that as well.

是的，沒錯。我的意思是，這件事的其他組成部分是我們在控股公司持有 27 億美元的遠期合約。顯然，隨著日圓走強，他們將更多地轉向我們，使我們在這些遠期合約上失去價值。現在我們也在控股公司持有約 44 億美元的日圓債務。這意味著當日圓變動時，我們的槓桿也會跟著改變。

So you will in a strengthening yen scenario, all things being equal, see our leverage ratio increased somewhat. All of these obviously then work in the negative category. As you think about the ESR, as you think about settlements on our forwards at Inc. and as you think about our leverage ratio. The offset to this is that we now expect higher future dividends in dollar terms from Aflac Japan.

因此，在日圓走強的情況下，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們的槓桿率將會上升。顯然，所有這些都屬於負面類別。當您考慮 ESR 時，當您考慮 Inc. 的遠期結算時，當您考慮我們的槓桿率時。與此相反的是，我們現在預計 Aflac Japan 未來將以美元計算派發更高的股息。

So when you then think about the long-term dividend cash flows in US dollars, they are now going to be higher. And that offsets the decline that you see elsewhere on these other instruments. And that's what I mean by when we take an economic approach, we think about sizing what our expected cash flows are and they are offset by these other instruments. So that means that we are very well hedged, protected in US dollar terms around the group.

因此，當您考慮以美元計算的長期股息現金流時，現在它們會更高。這抵消了您在其他工具上看到的下降。這就是我所說的當我們採用經濟方法時，我們會考慮確定預期現金流的大小，並透過其他工具來抵消它們。這意味著我們集團的美元對沖措施非常好，受到保護。

Great, thank you. Just a quick follow-up on third sector Japan sales. You gave a lot of detail on the new cancer product and your strategy around both cancer and medical. I know you said you thought cancer sale -- overall Japan sales would be up in 2025. I was just -- can you give any more color, though, I think you've typically seen a bit of a surge in sales when you have a new product introduction like this? And should that be our expectation that in the second quarter, you'll see a pretty meaningful positive impact from the cancer launch.

太好了，謝謝。只是對第三部門日本銷售情況的快速跟進。您詳細介紹了新的癌症產品以及您在癌症和醫療方面的策略。我知道您說過您認為癌症銷售額——日本的整體銷售額到 2025 年將會上升。我只是——您能否提供更多信息，我認為當您推出這樣的新產品時，您通常會看到銷售額出現小幅增長？這是否是我們預期的呢？在第二季度，您將看到癌症藥物的推出帶來相當有意義的正面影響。

That's how we think even once again.

我們再次這樣認為。

Wilma Burdis, Raymond James

威爾瑪·伯迪斯、雷蒙德·詹姆斯

Hey, good morning. Could you provide any updates on the Japan Post? I know there was a -- I think it was a data breach or something like that. But if you could just give us any updates? Thanks.

嘿，早安。您能提供有關日本郵政的最新消息嗎？我知道有——我認為這是資料外洩或類似的事情。但您能否向我們提供任何最新消息？謝謝。

Well, you were asking about it. The Japan Post. This is Koide from Aflac Japan.

嗯，你問的是這個。日本郵政。我是來自 Aflac Japan 的 Koide。

(spoken in foreign language) I believe that question is regarding the Japan Post companies inappropriate uses of nonpublicized financial information. (spoken in foreign language)

（外語）我認為這個問題是關於日本郵政公司不當使用未公開的財務資訊。（用外語說）

And right now, JPC or Japan Post Company has now established a preventative measures and implementing them. And Japan Post company is now focused on addressing this issue. So there are certain impact on the cancer insurance sales and within the Japan Post Group, there's another entity called Japan Post Insurance. And Japan Post Insurance is not directly impacted by this recent news. And also this recent matter regarding the inappropriate use of the data has nothing to do with an Aflac insurance product.

目前，日本郵政公司（JPC）已經制定並實施了預防措施。而日本郵政公司目前正致力於解決這個問題。因此，這對癌症保險銷售有一定影響，日本郵政集團內還有另一個實體稱為日本郵政保險。而日本郵政保險並未受到這項最新消息的直接影響。而且最近發生的有關不當使用數據的事件與 Aflac 保險產品無關。

So therefore, the cancer reinsurance sales activity are still continuing today. And as Yoshizumi described earlier, Japan Post Group have started the sales of new cancer products in April. And Japan Post Company has also started the sales of this new product.

因此，癌症再保險銷售活動至今仍在持續。而如吉住先前所介紹的，日本郵政集團已於4月開始銷售新的抗癌產品。而日本郵政公司也已經開始銷售這項新產品。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Nick Anito, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的尼克·阿尼托。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just one more for Max on the ESR, and I appreciate all the comments before on it. But -- how should we be thinking about the future use of Bermuda in terms of reinsuring the dependent balance sheet if the Yen continues to appreciate further, does it impact any of the ability or willingness to do more of the balance sheet reinsurance? Thanks.

嘿，謝謝。早安.關於 ESR，我只想對 Max 再提一點，我很感謝之前所有關於它的評論。但是——如果日圓繼續升值，我們應該如何考慮未來使用百慕達來為相關資產負債表提供再保險？這是否會影響我們為更多資產負債表提供再保險的能力或意願？謝謝。

So our ability to execute reinsurance is not really associated with our ESR levels. It's not making it more difficult or easier depending on where the ESR level is. That being said, it is absolutely clear that when we execute reinsurance between Aflac Japan and Aflac Bermuda, we tend to structure the transactions in a way to lower the overall risk for both the enterprise and for the seed and Aflac Japan in this case. That tends to have the outcome that the ESR is going up. So it's obviously a tool that we have available to us that we can use -- but it's 1 of the tools that we have and that we use overall to manage the capital base of Aflac Japan and the ESR ratio.

因此，我們執行再保險的能力實際上與我們的 ESR 水平無關。根據 ESR 水平，這並不會使事情變得更困難或更容易。話雖如此，但有一點非常清楚，當我們在 Aflac Japan 和 Aflac Bermuda 之間執行再保險時，我們傾向於以降低企業以及種子公司和 Aflac Japan 的總體風險的方式來構建交易。這往往會導致 ESR 上升。因此，這顯然是我們可以使用的工具 - 但這是我們擁有的工具之一，我們總體上使用它來管理 Aflac Japan 的資本基礎和 ESR 比率。

We have a relatively broad toolkit that we can use -- at this point, obviously, we are trading significantly above our target operating both range and midpoint. So at this point, we feel very good about where we are as it relates to our ESR ratio.

我們擁有相對廣泛的工具包可供使用——目前，顯然我們的交易量遠高於我們的目標範圍和中點。因此，就目前情況而言，我們對我們的 ESR 比率感到非常滿意。

Michael Ward, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可沃德。

Thank you. Good morning. I was just wondering how you guys are seeing the environment in Japan. And I'm just kind of curious, you guys are well tapped into their sort of cultural attitude. But is there any anti-US sentiment growing there from a trade war that could pose incremental sales challenges?

謝謝。早安.我只是想知道你們如何看待日本的環境。我只是有點好奇，你們對他們的文化態度了解得很透徹。但是，貿易戰是否會加劇美國的反美情緒，進而對銷售造成更大的挑戰？

Let me let Charles take that on. Charles?

讓我讓查爾斯來承擔這個任務。查爾斯？

This is Charles Lake. We do not see any reaction in a way that will be anti-American, as you know, the Japan government is a strong supporter of the US-Japan alliance, deep economic relationship is the basis of the confidence that Japan has in the United States. As you know, in the past 5 years, Japan was the largest investor into Japan. So when you look at the national security side, when you look at the economic relationship side, it's a deep relationship. In addition to that, because of the exchange rate, a large visitor from United States to Japan that's booming in terms of inbound tourism.

這是查爾斯湖。我們沒有看到任何反美的反應，正如你所知，日本政府是美日同盟的堅定支持者，深厚的經濟關係是日本對美國信心的基礎。大家知道，過去5年，日本是日本最大的投資國。因此，當你從國家安全角度和經濟關係角度看時，你會發現這是一種深厚的關係。此外，由於匯率的原因，大量美國遊客前往日本，入境旅遊市場蓬勃發展。

So at this stage, of course, the trade talks are getting a lot of attention. But it is not affecting in any way, in my view, this sentiment among the Japanese people about the United States.

因此，在現階段，貿易談判當然受到許多關注。但在我看來，這絲毫沒有影響日本人民對美國的感情。

Very helpful. And then maybe for Max, just high level on the buyback, a pretty solid amount this quarter. Just if it ends up that there's incremental sort of ongoing, I guess, sales headwinds -- should we think about you being comfortable continuing in excess of operating income and even at this level, right, as long as those headwinds may or may not persist?

非常有幫助。對於 Max 來說，回購水準可能很高，本季的回購金額相當可觀。如果最終出現持續的漸進式銷售逆風，我們是否應該考慮，只要這些逆風可能持續或可能不持續，您是否願意繼續保持超過營業收入甚至在這個水平上，對嗎？

Yes. The -- our buyback, it's really a function of the capital and liquidity we have on hand. The capital and liquidity we see coming through to us in the future. And then obviously, the investment opportunities we have for that capital. And we look at the IRRs that we can get on different types of capital deployment that being organic growth, i.e., what returns are we getting by selling new products and that's generally our number 1 source of where we deploy capital, that's where we wanted to go.

是的。我們的回購實際上取決於我們手頭上的資本和流動性。我們看到未來資本和流動性將會流入我們的生活。顯然，我們擁有針對這些資本的投資機會。我們研究了不同類型的資本部署所能獲得的 IRR，即有機成長，即透過銷售新產品我們能獲得什麼回報，這通常是我們部署資本的首要來源，也是我們想要去的地方。

We want to grow our franchise and grow it at strong IRRs when there's capital over, we are looking at other deployment opportunities. And obviously, buyback has been one of the greatest sources of that over the last couple of years. and that has given us very good IRRs. So this framework, we just continue to run and operate.

我們希望擴大我們的特許經營權，並在資本充足的情況下以強勁的內部收益率成長，我們正在尋找其他部署機會。顯然，回購是過去幾年來最大的收入來源之一。這給我們帶來了非常好的內部報酬率。因此，我們只需繼續運行和操作這個框架。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

Hey, thanks for putting me in here. I had one on the corporate segment. I guess just from the outside, it's a little difficult to model given there's the derivative program in there. There's the Bermuda reinsurance in there, and then there's the typical kind of what we think about as a corporate segment in there. So -- could you help us think through the different components and how we should think about the trajectory maybe where you see it running more near term versus where it may build to just based on the Bermuda business?

嘿，謝謝你讓我來這裡。我有一個關於公司部門的。我想，僅從外部來看，由於其中有衍生程序，因此建模有點困難。其中有百慕達再保險，還有我們認為的典型的企業部門。那麼——您能否幫助我們思考不同的組成部分，以及我們應該如何思考軌跡，也許您認為它的運行軌跡更接近短期軌跡，而不是僅僅基於百慕達業務的軌跡？

So Alex, I understand the difficulties in modeling this segment given that -- you have so many different pieces that are sort of rolling up into it. If you think about the most -- the biggest pieces that are moving that number, it would be around any further reinsurance that we would do. The reinsurance profitability is very stable and predictable. But any further transactions that we would do would obviously increase the profitability of this segment. The other piece is interest expense.

所以亞歷克斯，我理解建模這個部分的困難，因為——你有很多不同的部分要捲入其中。如果你考慮一下對這個數字影響最大的因素，那就是我們將進行的任何進一步的再保險。再保險獲利能力非常穩定且可預測。但我們進行的任何進一步交易顯然都會提高該部門的獲利能力。另一部分是利息支出。

So if we were to issue any more debt and go up in leverage that obviously would impact the profitability of this segment as well. And the last piece is the strategy that we have around tax credit investments and the way this is accounted for. And that is particularly interesting in this quarter. When you compare it year-over-year, there was a significant delta where in the first quarter of last year, we had pretty significant tax credit investments. They were lower this year.

因此，如果我們發行更多債務並提高槓桿率，這顯然也會影響該部門的獲利能力。最後一點是我們的稅收抵免投資策略及其會計方式。這在本季尤其有趣。與去年同期相比，存在顯著的差異，而去年第一季度，我們的稅收抵免投資相當可觀。今年則更低。

And as you know, the way they work is that we have a negative component to the net investment income in the Corporate segment with and more than offsetting credit to the tax line. So in this quarter, we only had, I believe, $8 million of tax credit investments hitting the net investment income line. And that is why you also saw the tax line having a higher tax rate than what we normally run -- run at on a quarterly basis. So if you boil all of that together, it means that you can -- you will continue to see some volatility in this number, but I would certainly expect the number to be on a pretax basis positive, but generally speaking, lower than what you saw in the first quarter.

如你所知，他們工作的方式是，我們在企業部門的淨投資收入中有一個負值部分，並且超過了稅收線的抵免額。因此，我認為，本季我們只有 800 萬美元的稅收抵免投資觸及淨投資收益線。這就是為什麼您會看到稅率高於我們通常按季度計算的稅率。因此，如果將所有這些因素綜合起來，就意味著您可以——您將繼續看到這個數字的一些波動，但我當然預計這個數字在稅前基礎上是正數，但總體而言，低於您在第一季度看到的水平。

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. I can leave it there. Thank you.

知道了。好的，這很有幫助。我可以把它留在那裡。謝謝。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to David Young for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 David Young 做最後發言。

Thank you, Alan, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We appreciate your time. If you have any other questions, please reach out to Investor Relations. We'll help you with what we can and look forward to speaking to you soon. Thank you.

謝謝你，艾倫，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。感謝您的時間。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯絡投資者關係部。我們將盡力為您提供協助，並期待盡快與您交談。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。