美國家庭壽險 (AFL) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Aflac Incorporated First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to David Young, Vice President, Investor and Rating Agency Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Aflac Incorporated 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者和評級機構關係副總裁 David Young。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome. Thank you for being here a bit earlier than our usual start time. This morning, Dan Amos, Chairman, CEO and President of Aflac Incorporated, will provide an overview of our results and operations in Japan and the United States. Then Max Broden, Executive Vice President and CFO of Aflac Incorporated, will provide an update on our financial results and current capital and liquidity.

早上好，歡迎光臨。感謝您比我們平常的開始時間早一點來到這裡。今天上午，Aflac Incorporated 董事長、執行長兼總裁 Dan Amos 將概述我們在日本和美國的業績和營運情況。然後，Aflac Incorporated 執行副總裁兼財務長 Max Broden 將提供有關我們財務業績以及當前資本和流動性的最新資訊。

These topics are also addressed in the materials we posted with our earnings release and financial supplement on investors.aflac.com, including Max's quarterly video update. We also posted under Financials on the same site, updated slides of investment details related to our commercial real estate and middle market loans. For Q&A today, we are also joined by Virgil Miller, President of Aflac U.S.; Charles Lake, Chairman and Representative Director, President of Aflac International; Masatoshi Koide, President and Representative Director, Aflac Life Insurance Japan; and Brad Dyslin, Global Chief Investment Officer, President of Aflac Global Investments.

我們在 Investors.aflac.com 上發布的收益發布和財務補充資料中也討論了這些主題，包括 Max 的季度視訊更新。我們也在同一網站的「財務」下發布了與我們的商業房地產和中間市場貸款相關的投資詳細資訊的更新幻燈片。今天的問答環節，Aflac 美國公司總裁 Virgil Miller 也參加了我們的問答環節； Charles Lake，Aflac International 董事長兼代表董事、總裁； Masatoshi Koide，日本 Aflac 人壽保險公司總裁兼代表董事；以及 Aflac Global Investments 全球首席投資長兼總裁 Brad Dyslin。

Before we begin, some statements in this teleconference are forward-looking within the meaning of federal securities laws. Although we believe these statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that they will prove to be accurate because they are prospective in nature. Actual results could differ materially from those we discuss today. We encourage you to look at our annual report on Form 10-K for some of the various risk factors that could materially impact our results. As I mentioned earlier, the earnings release is available on investors.aflac.com and includes reconciliations of certain non-U.S. GAAP measures.

在我們開始之前，本次電話會議中的一些陳述是聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些陳述是合理的，但我們不能保證它們將被證明是準確的，因為它們本質上是前瞻性的。實際結果可能與我們今天討論的結果大不相同。我們鼓勵您查看我們的 10-K 表年度報告，以了解可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的一些風險因素。正如我之前提到的，收益報告可在 Investors.aflac.com 上獲取，其中包括某些非美國公認會計準則指標的調節表。

I'll now hand the call over to Dan.

我現在將電話轉給丹。

Thank you, David, and good morning, and we're glad you joined us at this earlier hour. The first quarter marked a good start for the year in terms of earnings, but proved to be challenging for sales. Aflac Incorporated delivered another solid earnings result. Net earnings per diluted share for the quarter were $3.25. On an adjusted basis, earnings per diluted share were up 7.1% to $1.66.

謝謝你，大衛，早安，我們很高興你這麼早加入我們。第一季在獲利方面標誌著今年的良好開局，但事實證明，銷售方面面臨挑戰。 Aflac Incorporated 再次公佈了穩健的獲利結果。該季度攤薄後每股淨利潤為 3.25 美元。調整後每股攤薄收益成長 7.1% 至 1.66 美元。

Beginning with Japan, our latest medical insurance launch in September of 2023, we are encouraged by the success that independent corporate and individual agencies have had in marketing this product, especially to the younger individuals. However, we clearly need to make better progress and plan on doing so. Cancer insurance sales, however, were modestly better year-over-year. We entered the final stage of our new cancer insurance launch in April of 2023 through the Japan Post channel, while we saw a significant and understandable year-over-year increase in cancer insurance sales through Japan Post channel.

從我們於 2023 年 9 月推出的最新醫療保險日本開始，獨立企業和個人機構在行銷該產品（尤其是針對年輕人）方面取得的成功令我們感到鼓舞。然而，我們顯然需要取得更好的進展併計劃這樣做。然而，癌症保險銷售量較去年同期略有改善。我們於 2023 年 4 月透過日本郵政管道進入了新癌症保險推出的最後階段，同時我們看到透過日本郵政管道的癌症保險銷售額出現了顯著且可以理解的同比增長。

We expect to see improvement with the start of the new fiscal year as they cross-sell Aflac cancer insurance along with the new Japan Post life insurance product. Being where customers want to buy insurance remains an important element of our growth strategy in Japan. Our broad network of distribution channels, including agencies, alliance partners and banks, continually optimize opportunities to help provide financial protection to Japanese consumers. We will continue to work hard to support each channel.

我們預計隨著新財年的開始，情況會有所改善，因為他們交叉銷售 Aflac 癌症保險以及新的日本郵政人壽保險產品。成為客戶想要購買保險的地方仍然是我們在日本成長策略的重要組成部分。我們廣泛的分銷管道網絡（包括代理商、聯盟合作夥伴和銀行）不斷優化機會，幫助為日本消費者提供財務保護。我們將繼續努力支持各個管道。

In addition, we are initiating sales campaigns around our 50th anniversary in Japan starting this quarter. Let me be clear, we have not lowered our sales outlook for 2024 and still expect to achieve it. With the launch of the new policy this quarter, Koide-san and his team are working hard achieving that objective. In addition, we have maintained disciplined underwriting and expense management to continue driving strong pretax profit margins of 32.8%.

此外，我們將從本季開始在日本成立 50 週年紀念日期間啟動銷售活動。讓我明確一點，我們沒有降低 2024 年的銷售預期，並且仍然期望實現這一目標。隨著本季新政策的推出，小出先生和他的團隊正在努力實現這一目標。此外，我們保持嚴格的承保和費用管理，以繼續推動 32.8% 的強勁稅前利潤率。

Turning to the U.S. As you've seen in prior years, the first quarter tends to generate the lowest sales of the year. We have focused on driving more profitable growth by exercising a stronger underwriting discipline. We are deliberately avoiding sales opportunities to certain less profitable accounts. While this appears to have a temporary impact on sales in the first quarter, we are seeing positive results in net earned premium growth, which grew 3.3%.

轉向美國，正如您在前幾年所見，第一季的銷售額往往是全年最低的。我們專注於透過實行更嚴格的承保紀律來推動更高的利潤成長。我們故意避免向某些利潤較低的客戶銷售機會。雖然這似乎對第一季的銷售產生了暫時的影響，但我們看到淨賺保費成長取得了積極成果，成長了 3.3%。

At the same time, we have increased benefits in certain cases to improve value for the policyholders. We believe persistency will continue to improve as customers realize the value of their policies and the related benefits. We are pleased with the 80 basis points improvement in persistency this quarter. I believe that the need for the products we offer is as strong or stronger than it has ever been before in both Japan and the United States. We continue to work to restore our momentum and reinforce our leading position as we aim to exceed $1.8 billion of sales by the end of 2025.

同時，我們在某些​​情況下增加了福利，以提高投保人的價值。我們相信，隨著客戶認識到其保單的價值和相關利益，持久性將持續提高。我們對本季持久性提高 80 個基點感到高興。我相信，日本和美國對我們提供的產品的需求與以往一樣強烈，甚至比以往任何時候都更強烈。我們繼續努力恢復勢頭並鞏固我們的領先地位，我們的目標是到 2025 年底銷售額超過 18 億美元。

We have also continued our disciplined approach to expense management. We are beginning to see progress on our expense ratio in group life and disability and consumer markets continue to grow in scale. We are continuing to focus on optimizing our dental and vision platform and expect to see stronger second half sales this year. At the same time, we have maintained a strong pretax margin of 21%. Overall, I'm very pleased with what Virgil and his team are doing to balance profitable growth, enhance the value of the proposition of our policyholders and curb the expense ratio.

我們也繼續採用嚴格的費用管理方法。我們開始看到團體人壽和殘障費用率有所改善，而且消費市場規模持續擴大。我們將繼續專注於優化我們的牙科和視覺平台，並預計今年下半年的銷售將更加強勁。同時，我們維持了 21% 的強勁稅前利潤率。總的來說，我對 Virgil 和他的團隊在平衡獲利成長、提高保單持有人的主張價值和控制費用比率方面所做的工作感到非常滿意。

I'd like to end on addressing our ongoing commitment to prudent liquidity and capital management. I'm very pleased with how Max has led the team to take proactive steps in recent years to defend our cash flows and deployable capital against a weakening Yen as well as the establishment of our reinsurance platform in Bermuda. As an insurance company, our primary responsibility is to fulfill the promises we make to our policyholders while being responsive to the needs of the shareholders.

最後，我想談談我們對審慎流動性和資本管理的持續承諾。我對馬克斯近年來帶領團隊採取積極主動的措施，保護我們的現金流和可部署資本免受日圓貶值的影響以及在百慕達建立再保險平台感到非常高興。作為一家保險公司，我們的首要責任是履行對保單持有人的承諾，同時滿足股東的需求。

We remain committed to maintaining strong capital ratios on behalf of the policyholders. We balance this financial strength with tactical capital deployment. We intend to continue prudently managing our liquidity and capital to preserve the strength of our capital and cash flows. This supports both our dividend track record and our tactical share repurchase.

我們仍然致力於代表保單持有人維持強勁的資本比率。我們平衡財務實力與戰術資本部署。我們打算繼續審慎管理我們的流動性和資本，以維持我們的資本和現金流實力。這支持了我們的股利記錄和戰術性股票回購。

We treasure our track record of 41 consecutive years of dividend growth and remain committed to extending it. I am pleased that the Board set us on a path to continue this record, when it increased the first quarter 2024 dividend 19% to $0.50 and declared the second quarter dividend of $0.50. We repurchased a record $750 million in shares in the first quarter and intend to continue our balanced and tactical approach of investing in growth and driving long-term operating efficiencies. Our management team, employees and sales distribution continue to be dedicated stewards of our business, being there for our policyholders when they need us most, just as we promised.

我們珍惜連續 41 年股息成長的記錄，並繼續致力於擴大這項記錄。我很高興董事會讓我們繼續保持這一記錄，將 2024 年第一季股息提高 19% 至 0.50 美元，並宣布第二季度股息為 0.50 美元。我們在第一季回購了創紀錄的 7.5 億美元股票，並打算繼續採取平衡的戰術方法來投資成長和提高長期營運效率。我們的管理團隊、員工和銷售分銷人員將繼續成為我們業務的熱情管理者，正如我們所承諾的那樣，在保單持有人最需要我們的時候為他們提供幫助。

This underpins our goal of providing customers with the best value in the supplemental products in the United States and in Japan. In 2024, we celebrated our 50th year of doing business in Japan and 50th year as a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange. We are reminded that one thing has not changed since our founding in 1955. Families and individuals still seek to protect themselves from financial hardships that not even the best health insurance company covers.

這鞏固了我們為美國和日本客戶提供最佳價值的補充產品的目標。 2024 年，我們慶祝了在日本開展業務 50 週年，以及作為紐約證券交易所上市公司 50 週年。我們提醒自己，自 1955 年成立以來，有一件事沒有改變。

Today's complex healthcare environment has produced incredible medical advances that come with incredible cost. It's more important than ever to have a partner. We believe our approach to offering relevant products makes us that partner. We believe that in the underlying strengths of our business and our potential for continued growth in Japan and the U.S., two of the largest life insurance markets in the world, Aflac is well positioned as we work toward achieving long-term growth while also ensuring we deliver on our promise to our policyholders.

當今複雜的醫療保健環境帶來了令人難以置信的醫療進步，但也帶來了令人難以置信的成本。擁有一個合作夥伴比以往任何時候都更重要。我們相信，我們提供相關產品的方法使我們成為合作夥伴。我們相信，憑藉我們業務的潛在優勢以及我們在日本和美國這兩個世界上最大的人壽保險市場的持續增長潛力，Aflac 處於有利地位，我們致力於實現長期增長，同時確保我們兌現我們對保單持有人的承諾。

I'd now like to turn the program over to Max to cover more details of the financial results. Max?

我現在想將程序轉交給 Max，以涵蓋財務結果的更多詳細資訊。最大限度？

Thank you for joining me, as I provide a financial update on Aflac Incorporated's results for the first quarter of 2024.

感謝您接受我的採訪，我將提供 Aflac Incorporated 2024 年第一季業績的最新財務資訊。

For the quarter, adjusted earnings per diluted share increased 7.1% year-over-year to $1.66 with an $0.08 negative impact from FX in the quarter. In this quarter, remeasurement gains totaled $56 million and variable investment income ran $11 million or $0.01 per share below our long-term return expectations. Adjusted book value per share, including foreign currency translation gains and losses, increased 8.7%, and the adjusted ROE was 13.7%, an acceptable spread to our cost of capital.

本季度，調整後每股攤薄收益年增 7.1% 至 1.66 美元，但本季匯率帶來了 0.08 美元的負面影響。本季度，重新計量收益總計 5,600 萬美元，可變投資收益為 1,100 萬美元，即每股 0.01 美元，低於我們的長期回報預期。調整後的每股帳面價值（包括外幣折算損益）成長了 8.7%，調整後的股本回報率為 13.7%，與我們的資本成本相比處於可接受的水平。

Overall, we view these results in the quarter as solid. Starting with our Japan segment. Net earned premiums for the quarter declined 6%. This decline reflects a JPY 6.2 billion negative impact from paid-up policies. In addition, there is a JPY 7 billion negative impact from internal reinsurance transactions and a JPY 1.4 billion positive impact from deferred profit liability. Lapses were somewhat elevated, but within our expectations. At the same time, policies in force declined 2.3%.

總體而言，我們認為本季的這些結果是可靠的。從我們的日本部分開始。本季淨賺保費下降 6%。這一下降反映了實繳保單帶來的 62 億日圓負面影響。此外，內部再保險交易產生了 70 億日圓的負面影響，遞延利潤負債產生了 14 億日圓的正面影響。失誤增加，但在我們的預期之內。與此同時，現行政策下降了 2.3%。

Japan's total benefit ratio came in at 67% for the quarter, flat year-over-year. And the third sector benefit ratio was 57.5%, down approximately 20 basis points year-over-year. We continue to experience favorable actual to expected on our well-priced, large and mature in-force block. We estimate the impact from remeasurement gains to be 144 basis points favorable to the benefit ratio in Q1 2024. Long-term experience trends, as it relates to treatment of cancer and hospitalization, continue to be in place, leading to continued favorable underwriting experience. Persistency remained solid with a rate of 93.4%, which was down 50 basis points year-over-year, but flat quarter-over-quarter.

日本本季的總福利率為 67%，與去年同期持平。第三部門受益率為57.5%，較去年同期下降約20個基點。我們的價格合理、規模大且成熟的有效區塊繼續經歷與預期相比有利的實際情況。我們估計重新計量收益的影響為 144 個基點，有利於 2024 年第一季的福利比率。持久性保持穩定，為 93.4%，年減 50 個基點，但環比持平。

We tend to experience some elevations in lapses as customers update and refresh their coverage. This change in persistency is not out of line with expectations. Our expense ratio in Japan was 18%, down 170 basis points year-over-year, driven primarily by good expense control and to some extent, by expense allowance from reinsurance transactions. Adjusted net investment income in yen terms was up 19.3%, mainly by lower hedge costs and favorable impact from FX on our U.S. dollar investments in yen terms as well as higher return on our alternatives portfolio compared to the first quarter of 2023.

當客戶更新和刷新他們的覆蓋範圍時，我們往往會遇到一些失誤。這種持久性的改變並不符合預期。我們在日本的費用率為 18%，年減 170 個基點，這主要是由於良好的費用控制以及一定程度上的再保險交易費用補貼的推動。以日圓計算的調整後淨投資收入成長了19.3%，主要是由於對沖成本降低、外匯對我們以日圓計算的美元投資的有利影響，以及與2023 年第一季相比，我們的另類投資組合報酬率更高。

This was offset by the transfer of assets due to reinsurance in the previous year, leading to a lower asset base and lower floating rate income. The pretax margin for Japan in the quarter was 32.8%, up 460 basis points year-over-year, a very good result.

這被上一年再保險導致的資產轉移所抵消，導致資產基礎下降和浮動利率收入下降。日本本季稅前利潤率為32.8%，年增460個基點，成績非常好。

Turning to U.S. results. Net earned premium was up 3.3%. Persistency increased 80 basis points year-over-year to 78.7%. This is a function of a poor persistency quarter falling out of the metric and stabilization across numerous product categories. Our total benefit ratio came in at 46.5%, 90 basis points higher than Q1 2023, driven by product mix and lower remeasurement gains than a year ago. We estimate that the remeasurement gains impacted the benefit ratio by 200 basis points in the quarter.

轉向美國的結果。淨賺保費成長 3.3%。持續性年增 80 個基點，達到 78.7%。這是由於眾多產品類別的持續性較差的季度超出了指標和穩定性。受產品結構和重新計量收益低於一年前的推動，我們的總福利率為 46.5%，比 2023 年第一季高出 90 個基點。我們估計，重新計量收益對本季福利比率的影響達 200 個基點。

Claims utilization has stabilized, but as we incorporate more recent experience into our reserve models, we have released some reserves. Our expense ratio in the U.S. was 38.7%, down 90 basis points year-over-year, primarily driven by platforms improving scale and lower acquisition expenses. Our growth initiatives, group life and disability, network dental and vision and direct-to-consumer increased our total expense ratio by 230 basis points. We would expect this impact to decrease going forward as these businesses grow to scale and improve their profitability.

索賠利用率已經穩定，但隨著我們將更多最新經驗納入我們的準備金模型中，我們釋放了一些準備金。我們在美國的費用率為 38.7%，年減 90 個基點，主要是受到平台規模擴大和收購費用降低的推動。我們的成長計劃、團體人壽和殘疾、網路牙科和視力以及直接面向消費者的計劃使我們的總費用率增加了 230 個基點。我們預計，隨著這些業務規模的擴大和獲利能力的提高，這種影響將會減少。

Adjusted net investment income in the U.S. was up 4.6%, mainly driven by higher yields on both our alternatives and fixed rate portfolios. Profitability in the U.S. segment was solid with a pretax margin of 21%, driven primarily by net earned premiums growth and improved net investment income year-over-year. Our total commercial real estate watchlist remains approximately $1.2 billion, with around $600 million of these in active foreclosure proceedings. As a result of these current low valuation marks, we increased our CECL reserves associated with these loans by $10 million in this quarter.

美國調整後淨投資收益成長 4.6%，主要是由於我們的另類投資組合和固定利率投資組合的收益率上升。美國業務的獲利能力穩健，稅前利潤率為 21%，主要得益於淨已賺保費成長和淨投資收入較去年同期改善。我們的商業房地產觀察名單總額仍約為 12 億美元，其中約 6 億美元處於活躍的止贖程序中。由於目前估值較低，我們在本季將與這些貸款相關的 CECL 準備金增加了 1,000 萬美元。

We also moved 1 property into real estate owned, which resulted in a $3.7 million gain. We continue to believe that the current distressed market does not reflect the true intrinsic economic value of our portfolio, which is why we are confident in our ability to take ownership of these quality assets, manage them through the cycle and maximize our recoveries.

我們還將 1 處房產轉入自有房地產，這帶來了 370 萬美元的收益。我們仍然認為，當前的困境市場並不能反映我們投資組合的真正內在經濟價值，這就是為什麼我們對擁有這些優質資產、在整個週期中管理它們並最大化我們的復甦的能力充滿信心。

Our portfolio of first lien, senior secured middle market loans continue to perform well with losses well below our expectations for this point in the cycle. In our Corporate segment, we recorded a pretax loss of $3 million. Adjusted net investment income was $43 million higher than last year due to higher volume on the investable assets at Aflac REIT and a lower volume of tax credit investments at Aflac Inc. These tax credit investments impacted a corporate net investment income line for U.S. GAAP purposes negatively by $32 million, with an associated credit to the tax line.

我們的第一留置權、優先擔保中間市場貸款投資組合持續表現良好，損失遠低於我們對週期此時點的預期。在我們的企業部門，我們錄得稅前虧損 300 萬美元。由於Aflac REIT 的可投資資產數量增加以及Aflac Inc 的稅收抵免投資數量減少，調整後的淨投資收入比去年增加了4,300 萬美元。了負面影響增加 3200 萬美元，並可抵免稅收額度。

The net impact to our bottom line was a positive $4 million in the quarter. To date, these investments are performing well and in line with our expectations.

本季對我們利潤的淨影響為 400 萬美元。到目前為止，這些投資表現良好，符合我們的預期。

We are continuing to build out our reinsurance platform, and I am pleased with the outcome and performance. Our capital position remains strong and we ended the quarter with an SMR above 1,100% in Japan, and our combined RBC, while not finalized, we estimate it to be greater than 650%. Unencumbered holding company liquidity stood at $3.7 billion, $2 billion above our minimum balance. These are strong capital ratios, which we actively monitor, stress and manage to withstand credit cycles as well as external shocks.

我們正在繼續建造我們的再保險平台，我對結果和表現感到滿意。我們的資本狀況依然強勁，本季結束時，日本的 SMR 高於 1,100%，而我們的綜合 RBC 雖然尚未最終確定，但我們估計將超過 650%。未支配的控股公司流動性為 37 億美元，比我們的最低餘額高出 20 億美元。這些是強大的資本比率，我們積極監控、強調並設法抵禦信貸週期和外部衝擊。

U.S. statutory impairments were a release of $3 million. And Japan FSA impairments were JPY 3.6 billion or roughly $24 million in Q1. This is well within our expectations and with limited impact to both earnings and capital. Adjusted leverage remains at a comfortable 20.4%, at the low end of our leverage corridor of 20% to 25%.

美國法定減損損失為 300 萬美元。第一季日本 FSA 減損額為 36 億日圓，約 2,400 萬美元。這完全在我們的預期之內，對收益和資本的影響有限。調整後的槓桿率仍保持在舒適的 20.4%，處於我們槓桿區間 20% 至 25% 的低端。

In the quarter, we issued JPY 123.6 billion in multiple tranches with an average coupon of 1.72%. As we hold approximately 60% of our debt denominated in yen, our leverage will fluctuate with movements in the yen/dollar rate. This is intentional and part of our enterprise hedging program, protecting the economic value of Aflac Japan in U.S. dollar terms. We repurchased $750 million of our own stock and paid dividends of $288 million in Q1, offering good relative IRR on these capital deployments.

本季度，我們分多期發行了 1,236 億日元，平均票面利率為 1.72%。由於我們持有約 60% 的債務以日圓計價，因此我們的槓桿率將隨著日圓/美元匯率的變動而波動。這是我們有意為之的，也是我們企業對沖計劃的一部分，旨在保護 Aflac Japan 以美元計算的經濟價值。我們在第一季回購了 7.5 億美元的自有股票，並支付了 2.88 億美元的股息，為這些資本部署提供了良好的相對 IRR。

We will continue to be flexible and tactical in how we manage the balance sheet and deploy capital in order to drive strong risk-adjusted ROE with a meaningful spread to our cost of capital.

我們將繼續在管理資產負債表和部署資本方面保持靈活和戰術性，以推動強勁的風險調整後淨資產收益率，並顯著降低我們的資本成本。

I'll now turn the call over to David so that we can begin our Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉給大衛，以便我們可以開始問答。

Thank you, Max. Before we begin, I just want to remind everyone, please mark your calendars for our financial analyst briefing on December 3 at the New York Stock Exchange. We'll have more information coming out. (Operator Instructions).

謝謝你，麥克斯。在開始之前，我想提醒大家，請在日曆上標記 12 月 3 日在紐約證券交易所舉行的金融分析師簡報會。我們將會發布更多資訊。 （操作員說明）。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, starting with U.S. sales, which you guys said were weaker than expected in the quarter, but you did reaffirm the longer-term guidance for sales in that business. So can you just give us a sense of how you expect sales in the U.S. to trend from here?

我的第一個問題，從美國銷售開始，你們說本季美國銷售弱於預期，但你們確實重申了對該業務銷售的長期指導。那麼您能否讓我們了解一下您對美國銷售趨勢的期望呢？

This is Virgil from the U.S. First, let me start with a little bit more color on how sales performed in Q1. As you mentioned, they were a little bit softer for Q1. A couple of drivers for that. First, let me start with our plans, our life, absence and disability business. Normally, that is a business that takes place the latter part of the year. Well, last year, in 2023, we did have some business process in Q1, so therefore, we were down with that comparison. That is an anomaly. That normally doesn't happen. So again, I expect continued strong performance from that line of business for the remainder of the year. So that was a timing element.

我是來自美國的 Virgil 首先，讓我先詳細介紹一下第一季的銷售表現。正如您所提到的，第一季的表現有點疲軟。有幾個驅動程式。首先，讓我從我們的計劃、我們的生活、缺勤和殘疾事務開始。通常，這是一項在下半年進行的業務。嗯，去年，即 2023 年，我們在第一季確實有一些業務流程，因此，我們在比較中表現不佳。這是一個異常情況。這通常不會發生。因此，我再次預期該業務線在今年剩餘時間內將持續保持強勁表現。所以這是一個時間因素。

The other timing element involved on the dental and vision business. As Dan mentioned in his opening, we continue to work on optimizing that platform. So we had softer sales. We have a dental product. We're expecting to continue to build out that platform, make those improvements and have a stronger year in the second half of the year.

另一個時間因素涉及牙科和視力業務。正如丹在開場白中提到的，我們將繼續致力於優化該平台。所以我們的銷售疲軟。我們有牙科產品。我們預計將繼續建立該平台，進行這些改進，並在下半年取得更強勁的業績。

Last, I will close with -- to emphasize, though, I will continue to focus on our strong underwriting discipline. To give more color on that, we're really looking to bring on business that has long-term profitability, which we believe has strengthened the company over a long-term range. This allows us to pay claims and return shareholder value and also helps us with building on persistency. So we do have an improvement in persistency of 80 basis points. We had higher earned premium of 3.3% and we had strong profitability of 21% -- profit margin of 21% in the quarter. So we believe this is the rightly way to manage the company going forward.

最後，我要強調的是，我將繼續專注於我們強大的核保紀律。為了讓這一點更加生動，我們確實希望開展具有長期盈利能力的業務，我們相信這可以長期增強公司的實力。這使我們能夠支付索賠並回報股東價值，並幫助我們建立持久性。所以我們的持久性確實提高了 80 個基點。我們的獲利保費高達 3.3%，獲利能力強勁，達到 21%，本季利潤率為 21%。因此，我們相信這是管理公司前進的正確方式。

And then my follow-up, shifting to sales in Japan. The third sector sales went negative this quarter. You guys did highlight some initiatives you have to improve sales in Japan. But just hoping you could provide more color specifically on how you expect the third sector sales to trend over the course of 2024.

然後我的後續行動，轉向在日本的銷售。本季第三部門銷售額為負。你們確實強調了一些提高日本銷售的措施。但只是希望您能提供更多具體信息，說明您對 2024 年第三部門銷售趨勢的預期。

Let me let Aflac Japan answer that, but I think the most important thing is we still expect to attain our objective for the full year. So Koide, would you mind taking that or Yoshizumi.

讓我讓 Aflac Japan 來回答這個問題，但我認為最重要的是我們仍然期望實現全年目標。那麼小出，你介意選那個還是Yoshizumi。

[interpreted] Thank you for the question. This is Yoshizumi, I will be answering your question. Starting from 2024, what we are expecting is that we expect to exceed 2023 results. Due to the following reasons, we are expecting our sales will recover. Number one, we are planning to enhance our associates' channel sales agents, I mean increase the number of sales associates. And in 2023, we approximately hired 600 new sales agents -- recruited and have enhanced their training. We are expecting that these 600 will become more productive in the second quarter and be successful.

[已解釋] 謝謝你的提問。我是吉住，我來回答你的問題。從2024年開始，我們期待的是超過2023年的業績。由於以下原因，我們預計我們的銷售將會恢復。第一，我們計劃加強員工的通路銷售代理，我的意思是增加銷售人員的數量。到 2023 年，我們大約僱用了 600 名新銷售代理，並加強了他們的培訓。我們預計這 600 名員工將在第二季度變得更有效率並取得成功。

And we are also continuing agent recruitment in 2024 and taking steps to ensure their effectiveness. And the second point is that we are going to be promoting the sales of Japan Post new product as well as our cancer product through the Japan Post channel. And we do expect that cancer insurance sales will increase in the second quarter. And then my third point is related to Yorisou Cancer Consultation Support, which has been highly rated by our customers. This is our consultation service for our customers that could further differentiate ourselves from our competitors.

我們也將在 2024 年繼續招募代理商，並採取措施確保其有效性。第二點是我們將透過日本郵政管道促進日本郵政新產品以及我們的癌症產品的銷售。我們確實預計第二季癌症保險銷售額將會增加。第三點是關於Yorisou癌症諮商支持，它得到了我們客戶的高度評價。這是我們為客戶提供的諮詢服務，可以進一步使我們從競爭對手中脫穎而出。

And we will be using TV commercials, web video ads, et cetera, and leverage them to differentiate further against our competitors. And my fourth point is that we have plans to implement measures to attract more young and middle-aged customers as medical insurance has been well received among those segments and with significant growth at large nonexclusive agencies.

我們將使用電視廣告、網路影片廣告等，並利用它們進一步區別於我們的競爭對手。我的第四點是，我們計劃採取措施吸引更多中青年的客戶，因為醫療保險在這些細分市場中很受歡迎，並且在大型非專屬機構中成長顯著。

And furthermore, we are planning to launch a new asset formation type of product in June. The product will include future nursing care coverage feature that will bring value to young customers. We also expect to sell additional third sector product to these new customers through concurrent and follow-on sales. And by implementing these measures, we expect an increase in second quarter sales and exceed 2023 results, and as we aim to steadily increase sales. We are aiming for a steadily increase in sales toward our 2026 targets. That's all from me.

此外，我們也計劃在六月推出新的資產形成類型產品。該產品將包含未來護理保障功能，將為年輕客戶帶來價值。我們也希望透過同步和後續銷售向這些新客戶銷售更多的第三部門產品。透過實施這些措施，我們預計第二季銷售額將有所成長並超過 2023 年的業績，並且我們的目標是穩步提高銷售額。我們的目標是實現 2026 年目標，銷售額穩定成長。這就是我的全部。

The next question comes from Tom Gallagher with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Tom Gallagher。

Just wanted to circle back on Japan sales. Do you think the issue, as you try and assess it today, is more of an industry issue? Is it Aflac-specific? The reason I ask is I think you mentioned you're deliberately not underwriting certain products in Japan. When I hear that, I think that implies there's some irrational pricing or product features that you don't like. So just a little bit of color on what's going on? Is it medical, where that's happening? And overall, how do you see that playing out?

只是想回顧一下日本的銷售情況。正如您今天嘗試評估的那樣，您認為這個問題更多的是行業問題嗎？它是 Aflac 特有的嗎？我問這個問題的原因是我認為您提到您故意不承保日本的某些產品。當我聽到這個時，我認為這意味著存在一些不合理的定價或您不喜歡的產品功能。那麼，對正在發生的事情有一點色彩嗎？這是醫學上的嗎？整體而言，您認為結果如何？

Let's let our Japanese cover that, and I don't -- I'll pick up on it a little bit more, too.

讓我們的日語來介紹這一點，我不會——我也會更多地了解這一點。

[interpreted] This is Yoshizumi once again. Let me answer your questions. Regarding the medical insurance sales, we have been increasing our sales on year-on-year basis, especially to those customers under age 50 or 40 and below. And also, this -- our sales in large nonexclusive agency sales on a year-on-year basis, increasing significantly this year. And this large nonexclusive agency sales is a benchmark to see how well the medical insurance is doing.

[解釋]這又是吉住。讓我回答你的問題。在醫療保險銷售方面，我們的銷售額逐年成長，特別是針對50歲以下或40歲及以下的客戶。而且，我們在大型非獨家代理銷售中的銷售額今年比去年同期大幅增長。而這種大規模的非專屬代理銷售，是衡量醫療保險表現如何的一個基準。

We are planning to roll out promotional measures to further enhance our sales to young and middle aged customers, who we have been selling already successfully. That's all for me.

我們正計劃推出促銷措施，以進一步提高對中青年客戶的銷售，我們已經成功銷售了這些客戶。這就是我的全部。

[interpreted] This is Aflac Japan, Koide. I would like to be adding a few comments. In Japan right now, third sector sales is becoming more and more competitive year-on-year. And our strategy is to have solid sale by meeting these customers under the very competitive situation by launching new products in both medical and cancer insurance. And we'd like to do this in a timely manner by really taking in the needs of customers.

[解說]我是Aflac Japan，小出。我想補充一些評論。目前在日本，第三部門的銷售逐年變得越來越有競爭力。我們的策略是透過在醫療保險和癌症保險領域推出新產品，在競爭非常激烈的情況下滿足這些客戶的需求，從而獲得穩定的銷售。我們希望透過真正了解客戶的需求來及時做到這一點。

And as Yoshizumi-san mentioned earlier, regarding the associates channel sales agents increase, particularly as we increase the number of sales agents, we are not only increasing the headcount, but we are also trying to increase the productivity per head per year through training. In that way, we should be able to increase our sales and strengthen our sales in third sector. Another strength of Aflac in Japan is that we have very strong alliance across the entire Japan, namely the Japan Post network because Japan Post has a nationwide network that can sell our products.

正如吉住先生之前提到的，關於聯營通路銷售代理的增加，特別是隨著我們增加銷售代理的數量，我們不僅增加了員工人數，而且還試圖透過培訓來提高每年每人的生產力。這樣，我們應該能夠增加我們的銷售並加強我們在第三部門的銷售。 Aflac 在日本的另一個優勢是我們在整個日本擁有非常強大的聯盟，即日本郵政網絡，因為日本郵政擁有全國性的網絡可以銷售我們的產品。

And as Yoshizumi-san mentioned, the Japan Post network sales recovery is taking a bit more time. However, just as Yoshizumi-san mentioned, Japan Post Insurance sales is increasing, especially in its activity volume. So not will they only be only increasing their sales activities and association activities, they will also -- they should also be increasing the actual sales on cancer, and that's what we are hoping to have done. That's all from us.

正如吉住先生所提到的，日本郵政網絡銷售的恢復需要更多的時間。然而，正如吉住先生所說，日本郵政保險的銷售額正在增加，尤其是活動量。因此，他們不僅會增加銷售活動和協會活動，他們還應該增加癌症的實際銷售，這就是我們希望所做的。這就是我們的全部。

Dan, anything you would add? Or should I ask a follow-up?

丹，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？或者我應該問後續情況嗎？

Yes. Okay. Let me make a couple of comments, and then anything else you want to ask, we'll be glad. First of all, our cancer insurance is doing very well, both through our existing distribution channel and Japan Post. The other thing I would say is that the medical products are more competitive, and we have to continue to watch that. That's really nothing new, but it hasn't slacked up. And then we don't sell the foreign currency products that some of our competitors sell. We just don't think we want to take on that exposure and pass it on to our customers. And so we haven't done that. So I think those are the real differences that are created. Any other question you had, Tom?

是的。好的。讓我發表一些評論，然後您想問其他任何問題，我們都會很高興。首先，我們的癌症保險透過我們現有的分銷管道和日本郵政都做得很好。我想說的另一件事是，醫療產品更具競爭力，我們必須繼續關注這一點。這確實不是什麼新鮮事，但它並沒有鬆懈。然後我們不銷售我們的一些競爭對手銷售的外幣產品。我們只是認為我們不想承擔這種風險並將其傳遞給我們的客戶。所以我們還沒有這樣做。所以我認為這些才是造成的真正差異。湯姆，你還有其他問題嗎？

Yes. And just for a follow-up, the weaker persistency in Japan. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing there from a product standpoint? Is that cancer and medical that you're seeing it on? And do -- is it just lapsing of coverage? Or is it switching to other companies, do you suspect?

是的。就後續而言，日本的持久性較弱。您能從產品的角度談談您在那裡看到的情況嗎？您看到的是癌症和醫學嗎？這只是覆蓋範圍的喪失嗎？或者你懷疑它會轉向其他公司嗎？

So Tom, let me take that. One of the main reasons is that we obviously have an aging block of in-force. So our new sales is lower than our lapsation. That means you have a natural aging of the overall block, yes. When you have that, then you're going to see some higher surrenders, lapses and also mortality associated with the overall block. So it's very natural when you have an aging block that you have higher lapses. That in combination with -- we've also now -- in the last 5, 6 years, we moved into a little bit of a shorter product cycles. When you have that and you refresh products, you tend to have a little bit higher structural lapse and reissue come through your block. So I would point those are the 2 main reasons why we are probably in an environment now where you have a slightly lower persistency now structurally than what we did see 5, 6 years ago.

湯姆，讓我接受吧。主要原因之一是我們的有效人員明顯老化。所以我們的新銷量低於我們的舊銷量。是的，這意味著整個區塊將自然老化。當你做到了這一點時，你會看到與整個區塊相關的更高的投降、失誤和死亡率。所以當你有老化障礙時，你的失誤率會更高，這是很自然的。再加上——我們現在也——在過去的五、六年裡，我們的產品週期稍微縮短了一些。當你擁有它並更新產品時，你往往會遇到更高的結構性錯誤並透過你的區塊重新發布。所以我想指出，這就是為什麼我們現在所處的環境可能在結構上比我們五、六年前看到的持久性略低的兩個主要原因。

The next question comes from Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

So the first question is just along the lines of what's been discussed already. And I think Virgil mentioned this as well. This is in your press release also, Dan. Just disciplined underwriting is not something that people generally associate with Aflac because your products have pretty high margins, just given the nature of your business. So I'm wondering what's changed? Because it seems like the environment for pricing in your business -- with higher interest rates, you could potentially even price them better than before. So wondering if it's outside factors that have gotten worse? And maybe you could talk about the U.S. as well, where you're seeing your competitors trying to be more aggressive? Or what's really different now than before? Because it's not like before you weren't trying to be disciplined, right? So just anything that you could sort of highlight on that, especially in the U.S. market, you talked a little bit about Japan.

所以第一個問題與已經討論過的內容一致。我想維吉爾也提到過這一點。丹，這也在您的新聞稿中。人們通常不會將嚴格的承保與 Aflac 聯繫在一起，因為考慮到您的業務性質，您的產品利潤率相當高。所以我想知道發生了什麼變化？因為這似乎是你的業務定價環境——利率更高，你甚至可能比以前更好地定價。那麼想知道是否是外在因素變得更糟了？也許你也可以談談美國，你看到你的競爭對手試圖變得更激進？或者說現在跟以前有什麼不同？因為你不像以前那樣不努力遵守紀律，對嗎？因此，您可以強調的任何事情，尤其是在美國市場，您都談到了日本。

Yes. Let me add to that. Again, this is Virgil. I just want to say that what you're seeing is the evolution of our block of business. Our group voluntary benefit business has continued to grow over the past several years. And really, when we talk about that underwriting discipline, that is where you're most are going to see that. If there's strong competition out there, fierce competition in the group business, and what we're doing is making sure though that we are able not only to compete, but we want to look at the business that yields profits.

是的。讓我補充一下。再說一次，這是維吉爾。我只是想說，你所看到的是我們業務板塊的演變。我們的團體自願福利業務在過去幾年中持續成長。事實上，當我們談論承保紀律時，您最容易看到這一點。如果外部競爭激烈，集團業務競爭激烈，我們所做的就是確保我們不僅能夠競爭，而且我們希望專注於能夠產生利潤的業務。

So any time you bring in new business on the books, of course, there is acquisition expenses and everything that go into that, we want to make sure that we're getting the right business on the books that has the tendency to persist. So we're able to end up absolutely making profit on that business over a couple of years' period.

因此，每當你在帳面上引入新業務時，當然，都會有收購費用以及與之相關的所有費用，我們希望確保我們在帳面上獲得有持續傾向的正確業務。因此，我們最終能夠在幾年內從該業務中絕對獲利。

And if you think about it a minute, it will make plenty of sense is that -- you take an account that has high lapsation, then you have a low benefit ratio and you have a high expense ratio and basically no profit. So you actually improve every aspect of the business -- the overall business when you just don't write it. And that's what we've been looking at and seeing and then that allows us by doing that for our -- as we've increased benefits and other policies to move it up and give a better value. So it's a good balance that we think ultimately creates value not only for the policyholder, but ultimately for the shareholders as well.

如果你想一想，你會發現很有意義的是──你的帳戶有很高的失效率，那麼你的福利比率很低，費用比率很高，而且基本上沒有利潤。因此，當您不編寫業務時，您實際上可以改進業務的各個方面 - 整個業務。這就是我們一直在關注和看到的，然後這使我們能夠為我們這樣做——因為我們增加了福利和其他政策來提高它並提供更好的價值。因此，我們認為這是一個很好的平衡，最終不僅為保單持有人創造價值，而且最終也為股東創造價值。

Okay. And then, Max, do you have an update on the Japan ESR and its potential impact on your Bermuda reinsurance or just overall capital management strategy?

好的。然後，Max，您是否了解日本 ESR 的最新情況及其對您的百慕達再保險或整體資本管理策略的潛在影響？

So our ESR in Japan continues to track well. We are running a little bit north of 250% on our ESR based on our internal model. We would expect relatively soon in the second quarter for the FSA to come up with a final calibration. I would not anticipate that, that would have a material impact on our -- i.e., the difference between the FSA calibration and our current internal model. So I wouldn't expect to have that number move materially.

因此，我們在日本的 ESR 繼續保持良好勢頭。根據我們的內部模型，我們的 ESR 運行速度略高於 250%。我們預計英國金融服務管理局將在第二季相對快速地做出最終校準。我預計這不會對我們的——即 FSA 校準和我們當前的內部模型之間的差異產生重大影響。所以我預計這個數字不會發生實質變化。

But then obviously, we will assess the ESR based on that, and we will talk about it in more detail in December. But currently, we're tracking on our internal model a bit north of 250%.

但顯然，我們將在此基礎上評估 ESR，我們將在 12 月更詳細地討論它。但目前，我們的內部模型追蹤結果略高於 250%。

The next question comes from Joel Hurwitz with Dowling and Partners.

下一個問題來自 Dowling and Partners 的 Joel Hurwitz。

So Japan continues to see pretty strong remeasurement gains. Can you just talk about the underlying claim trends that you're seeing there? And I guess if this level of favorability of the remeasurement gains persists, should we likely see a bigger unlocking this year or would more experience be needed?

因此日本繼續看到相當強勁的重新計量收益。您能談談您在那裡看到的基本索賠趨勢嗎？我想，如果這種重新衡量收益的有利程度持續存在，我們今年是否可能會看到更大的釋放，或者是否需要更多經驗？

So Joe, the main driver continues to be the hospitalization trends that have been favorable for a long, long period of time, and they quite frankly have continued to improve. The way we do -- when we do our reserving, we are looking to true up to current experience, but we don't necessarily anticipate that it will be a continued future improvement in that experience. And that's why you see these -- if the hospitalization trends continue to improve from current levels, then you could see in the future but that will lead to future remeasurement gains as well. But if they stabilize at current levels, then you wouldn't necessarily see that.

因此，喬，主要驅動力仍然是長期以來一直有利的住院趨勢，坦白說，它們一直在持續改善。我們的做法是——當我們進行預訂時，我們希望能夠達到當前的體驗，但我們不一定預計未來會持續改進該體驗。這就是為什麼你會看到這些——如果住院趨勢繼續從當前水平改善，那麼你可以在未來看到，但這也將導致未來的重新測量收益。但如果它們穩定在當前水平，那麼你不一定會看到這一點。

Okay. Makes sense. And then just in Japan expenses, they came in very favorable this quarter. How much of that was cost controls that could be sustainable longer term versus just seasonality or timing?

好的。說得通。僅在日本支出方面，本季的情況就非常有利。其中有多少是可以長期持續的成本控制，而不是季節性或時間性的？

Yes. There's a significant element of both seasonality and timing in this number. And for the full year, we are tracking towards our expense ratio outlook of 19% to 21%.

是的。這個數字中有一個重要的季節性因素和時間因素。就全年而言，我們的費用率預期為 19% 至 21%。

The next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

There's a lot of news out there right now about the Japanese government doing some major intervention to support the yen. What does that mean for the cost of your hedging program?

目前有很多關於日本政府採取重大干預措施以支持日圓的消息。這對於您的對沖計劃的成本意味著什麼？

So Josh, volatility can obviously impact the pricing of options. That will be -- that together with all the other sort of normal inputs into the pricing of an option would be the main impact from that. The level itself has less impact to the ultimate cost of those put options. So at this point, we see relatively limited impact to the pricing of options. Quite frankly, I think that the volatility in the yen -- even though it's been trending, the short-term volatility has been quite low recently.

喬什，波動性顯然會影響選擇權的定價。那將是——與期權定價的所有其他正常輸入一起將是其主要影響。該水平本身對這些看跌期權的最終成本影響較小。因此，目前我們認為對選擇權定價的影響相對有限。坦白說，我認為日圓的波動性——儘管它一直處於趨勢之中，但近期的短期波動性相當低。

So given that, we don't see any significant impact. I would tell you, though, that obviously -- that there's been a significant move overall in the yen because it's been trending and it has been weakening. And that obviously has an impact to all of our financial statements and capital ratios. The way we approach this is that we take an economic view and we try to protect the economic value of Aflac Japan with a holding company lens. And we feel that we are very well protected with the 3 levers that we are using to do that. That being the U.S. dollar assets we hold in a Japanese general account. That being the yen-denominated debt that we issue out of the holding company and then also the FX forwards that we have at the holding company. So we have designed this program with these kind of moves in mind. And at this point, the program overall is performing very well.

因此，我們沒有看到任何重大影響。不過，我想告訴你，很明顯，日圓總體上出現了重大波動，因為它一直處於趨勢之中並且一直在走軟。這顯然會對我們所有的財務報表和資本比率產生影響。我們採取的方法是從經濟角度出發，並試圖透過控股公司的視角來保護 Aflac Japan 的經濟價值。我們認為我們使用的 3 個槓桿得到了很好的保護。這是我們在日本普通帳戶中持有的美元資產。這是我們從控股公司發行的以日圓計價的債務，還有我們在控股公司擁有的外匯遠期合約。所以我們在設計這個程式時就考慮到了這些動作。此時，程序整體表現非常良好。

And look, I don't want to lessen the significance of a very large dividend increase as well as a lot of shares bought back in the quarter, but it seems to me that the capital ratios are even higher now at the end of the first quarter than they were at the end of this past year. I've been harassing David a little bit on better color, but can you walk through all the gating factors in your internal model that guide your willingness to return capital to shareholders?

看，我不想削弱大幅股息增加以及本季回購大量股票的重要性，但在我看來，第一季末的資本比率甚至更高比去年年底增長了一個季度。我一直在就更好的色彩問題騷擾大衛，但是你能詳細解釋一下你的內部模型中指導你向股東返還資本的意願的所有控制因素嗎？

So the overall return on capital to shareholders is really, quite frankly, driven by, number one, satisfy the capital ratios in the subsidiaries, and that means all of the subsidiaries. Then we look at the pool of capital that we have at the holding company, which currently sits at $3.7 billion on an unencumbered basis, which is roughly $2 billion north of our minimum liquidity level. We then think about what is the capital generation going forward. And that helps us then think about how we can deploy capital, both short term, i.e. in the next couple of quarters, but also long term, i.e., thinking about what it's going to look like over the next 2, 3, 5 years as well.

因此，坦白說，股東的整體資本回報率實際上是由滿足子公司（即所有子公司）的資本比率所驅動的。然後我們看看控股公司的資本池，目前無支配資本為 37 億美元，比我們的最低流動性水準高出約 20 億美元。然後我們思考未來的資本生成是什麼。這有助於我們思考如何部署資本，既是短期的，即在接下來的幾個季度，也是長期的，即考慮未來 2、3、5 年的情況出色地。

That helps us sort of guide then also what kind of returns we can expect on dividend, buybacks, et cetera, when we take these into account what other alternatives we have for that capital. And obviously, we try to deploy the capital in the areas where we think we can get the best IRR.

當我們考慮到我們對該資本還有哪些其他選擇時，這可以幫助我們指導我們在股利、回購等方面可以預期獲得什麼樣的回報。顯然，我們嘗試將資本部署在我們認為可以獲得最佳內部報酬率的領域。

The next question comes from Wes Carmichael with Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自自主研究中心的韋斯·卡邁克爾。

In the transitional real estate portfolio, Max, I think you mentioned foreclosing on a loan and taking it on balance sheet as real estate owned. Can you just talk about are there other loans that you're monitoring right now? And maybe just give us an update on the size of the overall watchlist there?

在過渡性房地產投資組合中，麥克斯，我認為您提到了取消貸款的贖回權並將其作為擁有的房地產計入資產負債表。您能談談您現在正在監控的其他貸款嗎？也許只是給我們提供有關整體觀察列表大小的最新資訊？

Sure. Wes, this is Brad Dyslin. In the quarter, we saw our overall commercial real estate, which is predominantly the transitional real estate, as you've called out, the watchlist has been relatively stable. Our overall foreclosure watchlist is about $1.2 billion. Of that, about half is in active workout proceedings where we are fully prepared to foreclose on the property. We did have one, as you mentioned, that we foreclosed in the quarter. We were actually able to book a small gain on that. The accounting rules are such that if the appraised value exceeds our loan value, we're able to book it at the higher value. It's a pretty small number, but it does highlight the value of disciplined underwriting and maintaining a good, solid loan-to-value on the underlying assets.

當然。韋斯，這是布拉德戴斯林。在本季度，我們看到了我們的整體商業房地產，其中主要是過渡性房地產，正如您所說，觀察名單相對穩定。我們的止贖觀察名單整體價值約為 12 億美元。其中，大約一半正在進行積極的處理程序，我們已做好充分準備取消該財產的贖回權。正如您所提到的，我們確實有一個在本季度取消贖回權的房屋。我們實際上能夠從中獲得一點小小的收益。會計規則規定，如果評估價值超過我們的貸款價值，我們就可以以較高的價值入帳。這是一個相當小的數字，但它確實凸顯了嚴格承保和維持基礎資產良好、穩定的貸款價值比的價值。

Generally, things were stable in the quarter. We are seeing some very early signs of life in the market. We're seeing headlines about a lot of capital being raised in different outlets, focused on commercial real estate. That will certainly help with liquidity. It's a little bit early, but we're optimistic that we could be turning a corner here in the next couple of quarters. Of course, all eyes are on the Fed right now to see the impact that will have. But all in all, nothing really significant to happen to our watchlist in the quarter.

總體而言，本季情況穩定。我們看到市場出現了一些非常早期的生命跡象。我們看到有關不同管道籌集大量資金的頭條新聞，並專注於商業房地產。這肯定有助於流動性。現在還為時過早，但我們樂觀地認為，我們可能會在接下來的幾個季度內扭轉局面。當然，現在所有人的目光都集中在聯準會身上，看看這會產生什麼影響。但總而言之，本季我們的觀察清單中沒有發生任何真正重大的事情。

Thanks, Brad. And just turning to the U.S., could you maybe just talk about agent recruiting. What's the environment like given the strong employment in the U.S.? And are you kind of expecting that to change any in your outlook there?

謝謝，布拉德。說到美國，您能否談談代理招募的問題。美國就業強勁，環境如何？您是否希望這會改變您的看法？

Yes. So I would say it's definitely a tough environment we're recruiting for commission roles out there. Still, I would tell you, if you look back at Q1 of 2023, it was a strong Q1 quarter for us. So this year, we knew we had a tough comparison. And so therefore, I would tell you we expect it to be slightly down. So I'm not throwing off about the performance of Q1. I'm expecting us to rebound and continue to recruit, develop, convert, train and actually build up on average we can produce as going forward. Again, knowing the environment is tough, we just have to recruit differently. We're deploying different means to make sure we hit our expected numbers this year.

是的。所以我想說，我們正在招募佣金職位，這絕對是一個艱難的環境。不過，我想告訴您，如果您回顧 2023 年第一季度，您會發現這對我們來說是一個強勁的第一季。所以今年，我們知道我們有一個艱難的比較。因此，我想告訴你，我們預計它會略有下降。所以我不會放棄第一季的表現。我期待我們能夠反彈並繼續招募、開發、轉換、培訓並實際建立我們未來可以生產的平均水平。再說一次，我們知道環境很艱難，所以我們必須以不同的方式進行招募。我們正在採取不同的手段來確保今年達到預期的數字。

The next question comes from Suneet Kamath with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的蘇尼特·卡馬斯 (Suneet Kamath)。

I wanted to start with Japan sales. It seems like one of the issues, I think, that you're having is the mix of sales between exclusive and nonexclusive channels. So my question is, what percentage of your sales come from these nonexclusive channels? And relatedly, are you behind the industry in terms of the mix from that channel?

我想從日本銷售開始。我認為，您遇到的問題之一似乎是獨家和非獨家管道之間的銷售混合。所以我的問題是，您的銷售額中有多少百分比來自這些非獨家管道？與此相關的是，就該管道的組合而言，您是否落後於該行業？

Hold on there. Let me -- guys, can you hear. Did you all hear the question, Koide?

堅持住。讓我——夥計們，你們能聽到嗎？小出，你們都聽到這個問題了嗎？

Yes. We will answer to that question.

是的。我們將回答這個問題。

Hold on, just 1 second, they'll translate.

等一下，只需 1 秒鐘，他們就會翻譯。

[interpreted] This is Yoshizumi. I will be answering your questions. I'm sorry, this is translator speaking. I just needed to clarify what Yoshizumi said about the numbers that he mentioned. Here I go.

[解釋] 這是吉住。我將回答您的問題。對不起，這是翻譯。我只是想澄清一下吉住所說的關於他提到的數字的內容。我來啦。

In terms of the number of exclusive and nonexclusive agencies, 60% are exclusive agencies and 40% are nonexclusive agencies. That is in terms of the number of sales agencies, but then when it comes to sales, it's 70-30, exclusive agencies, 70% and nonexclusive agencies 40% (sic) [30%]. It's not that which is larger, which is smaller that really matters, but it is what it is.

從獨家代理商和非獨家代理商的數量來看，獨家代理商佔60%，非獨家代理商佔40%。這是就銷售代理機構的數量而言，但在銷售方面，則為 70-30 個，獨家代理機構為 70%，非獨家代理機構為 40%（原文如此）[30%]。真正重要的不是哪個比較大、哪個比較小，而是它是什麼。

In addition to explaining about our nonexclusive agencies channel, there are particular agencies that are called large nonexclusive agencies among the nonexclusive agency channel. And the sales from that large nonexclusive agency channel accounts for about 5% of our sales.

除了解釋我們的非獨家代理商管道外，非獨家代理商管道中還有一些特殊的代理商，稱為大型非獨家代理商。來自這個大型非獨家代理商通路的銷售額約占我們銷售額的 5%。

The bigger question is, are you behind the curve here, right? It seems like the industry is moving towards these nonexclusive agencies. That's my sense. And if it's only 5% in terms of these large nonexclusive agencies, is that just going to be an ongoing headwind in terms of your sales growth? Or do you have strategies to gain share in that channel?

更大的問題是，你是否落後於潮流，對吧？該行業似乎正在向這些非排他性機構發展。這就是我的感覺。如果這些大型非獨家代理商的比例僅為 5%，那麼這是否會成為您銷售成長的持續阻力？或者您有策略來獲得該管道的份額嗎？

[interpreted] Let me start out. This is Koide from Aflac Japan speaking. So first of all, let me just clarify our agency structure, our agency purpose. Ever since our foundation in Aflac Japan, we have always had exclusive agency channel as our main channel plus the so-called nonexclusive agencies that sells mainly our product in cancer and medical insurance area. And these are the main agencies that we have been dealing with.

[解釋] 讓我開始吧。我是 Aflac Japan 的 Koide。首先，讓我澄清一下我們的機構結構和機構目的。自從我們在Aflac日本成立以來，我們一直以獨家代理管道作為我們的主要管道，加上所謂的非獨家代理，主要銷售我們在癌症和醫療保險領域的產品。這些是我們一直在打交道的主要機構。

And this, in fact, is the strength of Aflac Japan. And because this just means that there are many agencies that are very loyal to Aflac. And as you know, other companies are entering into agency channel in recent years. Because they are new entries, they are not able to build their own exclusive channel anymore. So as a result, what they've been doing is to go into the nonexclusive channel, especially trying to deal with the large nonexclusive agencies to increase their sales.

事實上，這就是 Aflac Japan 的優勢。因為這僅僅意味著有很多機構對 Aflac 非常忠誠。如您所知，近年來其他公司正在進入代理商管道。因為他們是新人，所以無法再建立自己的專屬頻道。因此，他們一直在做的就是進入非獨家管道，特別是試圖與大型非獨家代理商打交道以增加銷售。

So in other words, as we mentioned, the sales from large nonexclusive agencies is small in Aflac's overall sales. However, this does not mean that we are any behind other insurance companies because we have our strength. This is in fact, our strength because we have our own exclusive channels. But then at the same time, it is also a fact that the market of large nonexclusive agency customers is increasing because the main customers of large nonexclusive agencies is young and middle aged customers.

換句話說，正如我們所提到的，大型非獨家代理商的銷售額在 Aflac 的整體銷售額中所佔比例很小。但這並不意味著我們落後於其他保險公司，因為我們有我們的實力。這其實是我們的優勢，因為我們有自己的獨家管道。但同時，大型非獨家代理客戶的市場不斷增加也是事實，因為大型非獨家代理的主要客戶是中青年客戶。

So however, as a result, what we need to do to grow Aflac Japan going forward is not just focus on exclusive agencies, but we also need to start focusing more on large nonexclusive agencies. And that has been the strategy for the past few years. And as a result of that, what we have done last year is to launch a new medical insurance product, which we have been able to sell a lot through our large nonexclusive agencies. Because we have targeted mainly young and middle aged customers who are using this medical insurance. So as a result of this, we have had a very large growth in our medical insurance sales in the first quarter this year.

然而，因此，為了讓 Aflac Japan 繼續發展，我們需要做的不僅僅是專注於獨家代理機構，而且我們還需要開始更多地關注大型非獨家代理機構。這就是過去幾年的策略。因此，我們去年所做的就是推出了新的醫療保險產品，我們已經能夠透過我們的大型非獨家代理商大量銷售該產品。因為我們使用這個醫療保險的目標客戶主要是中青年客戶。所以這樣一來，我們今年第一季的醫療保險銷售就有了非常大的成長。

Suneet, let me try to summarize, because I think it's important here. Number one is, in the nonexclusive area, this isn't something new. If you go back and you look, and you've been around a long time, you'll remember that there was this major agency that was independent and other competitors were selling for them, we ended up selling for them. They had been in the cell phone business and transferred over to the insurance business.

Suneet，讓我試著總結一下，因為我認為這很重要。第一，在非排他性領域，這並不是什麼新鮮事。如果你回去看看，你已經存在了很長一段時間，你會記得有一個獨立的主要機構，其他競爭對手在為他們銷售，我們最終為他們銷售。他們原本從事手機業務，後來轉向保險業務。

We found a way to get into that market. We ended up selling a lot with them. They ended up going a different direction. But the point being is, wherever the business is, we'll be there as the leader in the third sector product. And yes, we do have a strategy. And yes, we do plan on winning. But the point that I think Aflac Japan is making is the bread and butter of everything we do are the agencies that we've had since the inception. That along now with Japan Post has made a big difference. Again, Japan Post being only cancer. But all in all, it's what's dominated our business, and we will be ready to handle that. And it's really nothing new. It was going on 15 years ago.

我們找到了進入該市場的方法。我們最後和他們一起賣了很多東西。他們最終走向了不同的方向。但關鍵是，無論業務在哪裡，我們都將成為第三部門產品的領導者。是的，我們確實有一個策略。是的，我們確實計劃獲勝。但我認為 Aflac Japan 所做的一切的基礎是我們自成立以來就擁有的代理商。現在與日本郵政一起已經產生了很大的變化。再說一次，日本郵政只是癌症。但總而言之，這是我們業務的主導因素，我們將準備好應對這個問題。這確實不是什麼新鮮事。事情發生在15年前。

[interpreted] Dan, thank you. And I would like to add a little bit more color to that. We are really truly working on the large nonexclusive agency channel right now. However, as Dan mentioned, we have Japan Post, we have exclusive agencies, we have nonexclusive agencies and as I mentioned, we have Japan Post channel as well as other business partners and bank channel. So we have this variety of channels that sell our third sector products. And so that is how we are going to be increasing and growing our sales.

[解釋]丹，謝謝你。我想為此添加更多色彩。我們現在確實正在致力於大型非獨家代理商管道。然而，正如丹所提到的，我們有日本郵政，我們有獨家代理機構，我們有非獨家代理機構，正如我所提到的，我們有日本郵政管道以及其他業務合作夥伴和銀行管道。因此，我們有多種管道來銷售我們的第三部門產品。這就是我們增加和增加銷售額的方式。

[interpreted] So this is Yoshizumi once again. Let me just add a little bit more information to your question. The large nonexclusive agencies, the main product that they sell to a customer is the first sector product. And Aflac, our main products are cancer and medical insurance products and the total number of policies of cancer and medical added altogether combined, we are #1 in overall Japan. So we truly believe that we will be able to increase the number of sales through other channels as well. And I do think that our driver will be our exclusive agencies.

[解釋] 這又是吉住。讓我為您的問題添加更多資訊。大型非獨家代理機構，他們向客戶銷售的主要產品是第一部門產品。 Aflac 的主要產品是癌症和醫療保險產品，癌症和醫療保險的保單總數加起來，我們在日本全國排名第一。因此，我們堅信我們也能夠透過其他管道增加銷售數量。我確實認為我們的司機將是我們的獨家代理。

Right, I think we've answered that question. If you need a follow-up, we'll be glad to do that. But David?

是的，我想我們已經回答了這個問題。如果您需要跟進，我們將很樂意這樣做。但大衛？

Betsy, I think that's our last call, correct?

貝特西，我想這是我們最後一次通話，對嗎？

Correct. I'd like to hand it back over to David Young for any closing remarks.

正確的。我想把它交還給大衛楊（David Young），讓他發表結束語。

Yes. Thank you all very much for joining us this morning. And in the coming months, you'll get more information about our financial analyst briefing at the New York Stock Exchange on December 3. And if you have any questions that you want to follow up, please reach out to Investor and Rating Agency Relations. We will talk to you again. Have a great day.

是的。非常感謝大家今天早上加入我們。在接下來的幾個月中，您將獲得有關我們12 月3 日在紐約證券交易所舉行的金融分析師簡報會的更多資訊。和評等機構關係部。我們會再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。

[Portions of this transcript that are marked [interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]

[本文字記錄中標示為[已翻譯]的部分是由現場通話中的口譯員說出的。