美國家庭壽險 (AFL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Aflac Incorporated Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to David Young, Vice President of Investor and Rating Agency Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 Aflac Incorporated 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。現在我想將會議交給投資人和評等機構關係副總裁 David Young。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome. This morning, we will be hearing remarks about the third quarter related to our operations in Japan and the United States from Dan Amos, Chairman and CEO of Aflac Incorporated; and Fred Crawford, President and COO of Aflac Incorporated. Max Broden, Executive Vice President and CFO of Aflac Incorporated, will provide an update on our financial results and current capital and liquidity, which can also be found with the materials that we posted along with our earnings release and financial supplement on investors.aflac.com. We also posted under financials, on the same site, updated slides of investment details related to our commercial real estate and middle market loans.

早上好，歡迎光臨。今天上午，我們將聽取 Aflac Incorporated 董事長兼執行長 Dan Amos 就第三季與我們在日本和美國的業務相關的講話；以及 Aflac 公司總裁兼營運長 Fred Crawford。 Aflac Incorporated 執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Max Broden 將提供有關我們財務業績以及當前資本和流動性的最新信息，您也可以在我們在 Investors.aflac 上發布的收益發布和財務補充材料中找到這些信息。 com.我們也在同一網站的財務下發布了與我們的商業房地產和中間市場貸款相關的投資詳細資訊的更新幻燈片。

In addition, Max provided his quarterly video update, which you will find there also. Other members of our executive management team who are joining us for Q&A include: Virgil Miller, President of Aflac U.S.; Charles Lake, Chairman and Representative Director, President of Aflac International; Masatoshi Koide, President and Representative Director, Aflac Life Insurance Japan; Brad Dyslin, Global Chief Investment Officer, President of Aflac Global Investments.

此外，Max 還提供了他的季度視訊更新，您也可以在那裡找到。其他參加我們問答的執行管理團隊的成員包括：Aflac 美國總裁 Virgil Miller； Charles Lake，Aflac International 董事長兼代表董事、總裁； Masatoshi Koide，日本 Aflac 人壽保險公司總裁兼代表董事； Brad Dyslin，Aflac 全球投資公司全球首席投資長、總裁。

Before we begin, some statements in this teleconference are forward-looking within the meaning of federal securities laws. Although we believe these statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that they will prove to be accurate because they are prospective in nature. Actual results could differ materially from those we discuss today. We encourage you to look at our annual report on Form 10-K for some of the various risk factors that could materially impact our results. As I mentioned earlier, the earnings release is available on investors.aflac.com and includes reconciliations of certain non-U.S. GAAP measures. I'll now hand the call over to Dan. Dan?

在我們開始之前，本次電話會議中的一些陳述是聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些陳述是合理的，但我們不能保證它們將被證明是準確的，因為它們本質上是前瞻性的。實際結果可能與我們今天討論的結果大不相同。我們鼓勵您查看我們的 10-K 表年度報告，以了解可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的一些風險因素。正如我之前提到的，收益報告可在 Investors.aflac.com 上獲取，其中包括某些非美國公認會計準則指標的調節表。我現在將電話轉給丹。擔？

Thank you, David. Good morning. We're glad you joined us. Reflecting on the third quarter of 2023, our management team, employees and sales distribution have continued to work tirelessly as dedicated stewards of our business. This has allowed us to be there for the policyholders when they need us most, just as we promised. Aflac Incorporated delivered very strong earnings for both the quarter and for the first 9 months.

謝謝你，大衛。早安.我們很高興您加入我們。回顧 2023 年第三季度，我們的管理團隊、員工和銷售分銷部門繼續作為我們業務的熱情管理者不懈努力。這使得我們能夠像我們所承諾的那樣，在保單持有人最需要我們的時候為他們提供幫助。 Aflac Incorporated 本季和前 9 個月的獲利都非常強勁。

Beginning with Japan, I am pleased with our 12.4% year-over-year increase in sales, which was largely driven by a nearly 23% increase in cancer insurance sales with a significant contribution from Japan Post Company and Japan Post Insurance. I am also pleased to see continued improvements in cancer insurance sales through our other alliances, Dai-ichi Life and Daido Life. These alliance partners, along with agencies and banks, combine to form our extensive distribution channels that are so important to being where the customer wants to buy insurance and providing them with financial protection. We continue to work hard to support each channel.

從日本開始，我對我們的銷售額同比增長 12.4% 感到滿意，這主要是由癌症保險銷售額增長近 23% 推動的，其中日本郵政公司和日本郵政保險公司做出了重大貢獻。我還很高興看到透過我們的其他聯盟（第一生命保險和大同生命保險）癌症保險銷售的持續改善。這些聯盟合作夥伴以及機構和銀行共同形成了我們廣泛的分銷管道，這對於成為客戶想要購買保險並為他們提供財務保護非常重要。我們將繼續努力支持每個管道。

We also introduced our new medical insurance product on September 19. The product design is simple to appeal to younger policyholders with basic needs and older or existing policyholders who desire additional or updated coverage. While it's too early to evaluate the success of this product launch, early indications show that it's being well received. We continue to gain new customers through WAYS and Child Endowment while also increasing opportunities to sell our third sector products.

我們也於 9 月 19 日推出了新的醫療保險產品。產品設計簡單，可以吸引有基本需求的年輕保單持有人以及需要額外或更新保險的老年或現有保單持有人。雖然現在評估該產品的推出是否成功還為時過早，但早期跡象表明它受到了好評。我們繼續透過 WAYS 和兒童捐贈基金贏得新客戶，同時也增加銷售我們第三部門產品的機會。

Since the launch of our refreshed WAYS product, approximately 80% of our sales are to younger customers below the age of 50, and the level of concurrent third sector sales remains approximately 50%. We -- thus for, our product strategy in Japan has served us well, and I'm encouraged by our progress so far.

自從更新版 WAYS 產品以來，我們約 80% 的銷售額面向 50 歲以下的年輕客戶，同時第三部門的銷售水準仍維持在 50% 左右。因此，我們在日本的產品策略對我們很有幫助，我對我們迄今為止的進展感到鼓舞。

Turning to the U.S., I'm encouraged by our sales increase of 7.5% in the quarter. This reflects continued productivity improvements and the contribution from our growth initiatives of group life and disability, consumer markets, network dental and vision, we remain focused on driving scale, stabilizing new platforms and leveraging our ability to bundle essential product lines as we work with brokers on larger groups. Agents and brokers contributed to the growth of our individual business. Our group platform benefited significantly from the sales of group life and disability. I am very excited about our new cancer protection assurance policy, which provides enhanced benefits at no additional cost. We know that when people experience the value of our products it increases persistency, which benefits our policyholders and lowers our expenses.

談到美國，本季我們的銷售額成長了 7.5%，這讓我感到鼓舞。這反映了生產力的持續提高以及我們在團體人壽和殘疾、消費者市場、網路牙科和視力方面的成長計劃的貢獻，我們仍然專注於擴大規模，穩定新平台，並在與經紀人合作時利用我們捆綁基本產品線的能力在更大的群體上。代理商和經紀人為我們個人業務的成長做出了貢獻。我們的團體平台從團體人壽和殘疾的銷售中受益匪淺。我對我們新的癌症保護保障政策感到非常興奮，該保單無需額外費用即可提供增強的福利。我們知道，當人們體驗到我們產品的價值時，就會增加持久性，這有利於我們的保單持有人並降低我們的費用。

I believe that the need for our products and solutions we offer is strong or stronger than ever before in both Japan and the United States. We are leveraging every opportunity in Avenue to share this message with consumers, particularly given that our products are sold, not bought. As we communicate the value of our products, we know that a strong brand alone is not enough. We must paint a better picture of how our products help address the gap that people face when they get medical treatments, even though they may have major medical insurance, knowing our products help lift people up when they need it most is something that makes all of us at Aflac very proud and propels us to do more and achieve more. We continue to reinforce our leading position and build on that momentum.

我相信，日本和美國對我們的產品和解決方案的需求比以往任何時候都更加強烈。我們正在利用 Avenue 的每個機會與消費者分享這一訊息，特別是考慮到我們的產品是出售的，而不是購買的。當我們傳達產品的價值時，我們知道僅靠強大的品牌是不夠的。我們必須更好地描繪我們的產品如何幫助解決人們在接受醫療時面臨的差距，即使他們可能有重大醫療保險，但知道我們的產品可以在人們最需要的時候幫助他們振作起來，這讓我們所有人都感到高興。我們 Aflac 非常自豪，並推動我們做得更多、取得更多成就。我們將繼續鞏固我們的領先地位並繼續鞏固這一勢頭。

As always, we are committed to prudent liquidity and capital management. We continue to generate strong investment results while remaining in a defensive position as we monitor evolving economic conditions. In addition, we have taken proactive steps in recent years to defend our cash flow and deployable capital against a weakening yen. As an insurance company, our primary responsibility is to fulfill the promises we make to our policyholders. At the same time, we're listening to our shareholders and understanding the importance of prudent liquidity and capital management. We remain committed to maintaining strong capital ratios on behalf of the policyholder and balance this financial strength with tactical capital deployment.

一如既往，我們致力於審慎的流動性和資本管理。我們繼續創造強勁的投資業績，同時在監測不斷變化的經濟狀況時保持防禦地位。此外，我們近年來採取了積極措施，保護我們的現金流和可動用資本免受日圓貶值的影響。作為一家保險公司，我們的首要責任是履行對保單持有人的承諾。同時，我們正在傾聽股東的意見，並了解審慎的流動性和資本管理的重要性。我們仍然致力於代表投保人維持強勁的資本比率，並透過戰術資本部署平衡財務實力。

I am very pleased with the Board's declaration of the fourth quarter dividend in declaring this dividend of 2023 marks the 41st consecutive year of dividend increases a record that we treasure. I am even more pleased with the Board's action to increase the first quarter of 2024 dividend by 19% to $0.50 per share. We also remain in the market purchasing shares at a historically high level of $700 million. As seen in the first 2 quarters of this year, we intend to continue prudently managing our liquidity and capital to preserve the strength of our capital and cash flows, which support both our dividend track record and tactical share repurchase. Overall, I think we can say that it has been a very strong quarter, especially when a vast number of factors are in our favor. Aflac Japan had a strong quarter for sales as we executed product and distribution strategy. Aflac U.S. continued to build on this momentum as it nears pre-pandemic levels.

我對董事會宣布第四季度股息感到非常高興，宣布 2023 年的股息標誌著連續 41 年股息增加，這是我們珍惜的記錄。我對董事會將 2024 年第一季股息增加 19% 至每股 0.50 美元的行動感到更加滿意。我們還在市場上買了 7 億美元的歷史高點的股票。正如今年前兩個季度所見，我們打算繼續審慎管理我們的流動性和資本，以保持我們的資本和現金流實力，這支持我們的股息記錄和戰術性股票回購。總的來說，我認為我們可以說這是一個非常強勁的季度，特別是當大量因素對我們有利時。由於我們執行產品和分銷策略，Aflac Japan 的季度銷售表現強勁。 Aflac 美國繼續保持這一勢頭，接近大流行前的水平。

Pretax profit margins remained strong in both Japan at 32.8% in the U.S. at 28.8%, plus our capital ratios remain very strong, and our quarterly share repurchase was like last quarter, one of the largest in the company's history.

日本的稅前利潤率保持強勁，為 32.8%，美國為 28.8%，而且我們的資本充足率仍然非常強勁，我們的季度股票回購與上季度一樣，是公司歷史上規模最大的季度之一。

Before I hand it over to Fred, I want to address an announcement of his retirement. I've enjoyed working closely with Fred over the last 8 years and certainly understand his desire to retire and spend more time with the family and personal interest. Fred, you will be missed. And I look forward to working with you and Aflac's executive team to ensure a smooth transition until your official retirement date. And I wish you many happy years. As for me and the company, we have some outstanding candidates who are capable of running Aflac. It is my responsibility to continue to train and watch the progress of these potential [era] parents while the Board oversees the process. To be prepared for any unknowns we have always had an interim CEO ready should something abruptly happened to me as well as a strong process within the Board's Corporate Governance Committee.

在將其交給弗雷德之前，我想宣布他退休的消息。在過去的 8 年裡，我很享受與 Fred 的密切合作，當然也理解他希望退休並花更多時間陪伴家人和個人興趣的願望。弗雷德，我們會想念你的。我期待與您和 Aflac 的執行團隊合作，確保在您正式退休之前順利過渡。我祝你幸福快樂。對我和公司來說，我們有一些有能力管理 Aflac 的優秀候選人。我的責任是在董事會監督這一過程的同時，繼續培訓和觀察這些潛在[時代]父母的進展。為了應對任何未知情況，我們一直準備好一位臨時首席執行官，以應對我突然發生的事情，並在董事會的公司治理委員會內製定強有力的流程。

I recently had a physical at Emory University and received an excellent report. So I plan on being around to prepare our leaders for the future and drive shareholder value. With that, I'll now turn the program over to Fred. Fred?

我最近在埃默里大學進行了體檢，並收到了一份出色的報告。因此，我計劃幫助我們的領導者為未來做好準備，並推動股東價值。有了這個，我現在將把程序交給 Fred。弗雷德？

Thank you, Dan. As announced last night, I plan to retire in September of next year to spend more time with my family and pursue other interests. It's a personal decision but also a recognition of the very capable leadership team surrounding Dan and the company being in a very strong position. While I believe this is the best for me and my family, I also believe it is in the best interest of Aflac. I've enjoyed 25 years as an executive in the insurance industry and feel blessed to have worked with talented professionals and leaders throughout. However, the highlight has clearly been my time here working for Dan and for Aflac. Over the next year, I will be focused on transition and helping on select initiatives where I can add value. I'll now hand the call back over to Max. Max?

謝謝你，丹。正如昨晚宣布的，我計劃在明年九月退休，以便花更多時間陪伴家人並追求其他興趣。這是個人決定，也是對 Dan 周圍非常有能力的領導團隊以及公司處於非常有利地位的認可。雖然我相信這對我和我的家人來說是最好的，但我也相信這也符合 Aflac 的最大利益。我在保險業擔任了 25 年的高階主管，並為能夠與才華橫溢的專業人士和領導者共事而感到幸運。然而，最精彩的顯然是我為 Dan 和 Aflac 工作的時光。在接下來的一年裡，我將專注於轉型並幫助選擇我可以增加價值的措施。我現在將把電話轉回給麥克斯。最大限度？

Thank you, Fred. For the third quarter, adjusted earnings per diluted share increased 27.8% year-over-year to $1.84 with a $0.06 negative impact from FX in the quarter. With this being the third quarter under the new LDTI accounting regime, we evaluate our reserve assumptions for morbidity, persistency and mortality at least annually to see if an update is needed. If necessary, these assumptions will be unlocked on a prospective basis as they were in this quarter, leading to remeasurement gains of $205 million.

謝謝你，弗雷德。第三季度，調整後每股攤薄收益年增 27.8% 至 1.84 美元，該季度匯率帶來 0.06 美元的負面影響。由於這是新 LDTI 會計制度下的第三季度，我們至少每年評估我們的發病率、持續性和死亡率的儲備假設，以確定是否需要更新。如有必要，這些假設將像本季一樣以前瞻性為基礎解鎖，從而帶來 2.05 億美元的重新計量收益。

Variable investment income ran $13 million or $0.02 per share below our long-term return expectations. We also wrote down certain software intangibles in our U.S. segment, impacting our results by $0.04 per share. Adjusted book value per share, including foreign currency translation gains and losses, increased 10.3%, and the adjusted ROE was 15.6%, a significant spread to our cost of capital. Overall, we view these results in the quarter as solid.

可變投資收益為 1,300 萬美元，即每股 0.02 美元，低於我們的長期回報預期。我們也減記了美國部門的某些軟體無形資產，這對我們的每股業績產生了 0.04 美元的影響。調整後的每股帳面價值（包括外幣折算損益）成長了 10.3%，調整後的淨資產收益率為 15.6%，與我們的資本成本相比有很大差距。總體而言，我們認為本季的這些結果是可靠的。

Starting with our Japan segment, net earned premium for the quarter declined 2.8%, reflecting the impact of paid-up policies, our January 1 reinsurance transaction and deferred profit liability. Lapses were somewhat elevated but within our expectations. However, if adjusting for all these factors, the earned premium declined an estimated 1.7%. Japan's total benefit ratio came in at 65.1% for the quarter, down 170 basis points year-over-year, and the third sector benefit ratio was 54.8%, down approximately 460 basis points year-over-year.

從我們的日本業務開始，本季淨賺保費下降了 2.8%，反映了繳清保單、我們 1 月 1 日再保險交易和遞延利潤負債的影響。失誤增加，但在我們的預期之內。然而，如果調整所有這些因素，賺取的保費預計將下降 1.7%。日本本季總福利率為 65.1%，年減 170 個基點，第三部門福利率為 54.8%，較去年同期下降約 460 個基點。

We continue to experience favorable actual to expected on our well-priced, large and mature in-force block. We estimate the impact from remeasurement gains to be 260 basis points favorable to the benefit ratio in Q3. Long-term experience trends as it relates to treatment of cancer and hospitalization continue to be in place, leading to favorable underwriting experience. Persistency remained solid with a rate of 93.5% but was down 80 basis points year-over-year. With product refreshments, we tend to experience some elevation in lapses as customers update and refresh their coverage, which was the case with the recently refreshed cancer and first sector products.

我們的價格合理、規模大且成熟的有效區塊繼續經歷與預期相比有利的實際情況。我們估計重新計量收益的影響為 260 個基點，有利於第三季的福利比率。與癌症治療和住院治療相關的長期經驗趨勢持續存在，從而帶來良好的承保經驗。持續率保持穩定，為 93.5%，但年減 80 個基點。透過產品更新，當客戶更新和更新他們的保險範圍時，我們往往會遇到一些失誤，最近更新的癌症和第一部門產品就是這種情況。

Our expense ratio in Japan was 19%, down 100 basis points year-over-year, driven primarily by good expense control and, to some extent, by expense allowance from reinsurance transactions and DAC commission true-up. For the full year, we would expect to end up towards the low end of our expense ratio range of 20% to 22%. Adjusted net investment income in yen terms was up 7.2% as we experienced higher yields on our U.S. dollar-denominated investments and related favorable FX and a return on our alternatives portfolio, more in line with our long-term return expectations. This was offset by transfer of assets due to reinsurance.

我們在日本的費用率為 19%，年減 100 個基點，這主要是由於良好的費用控制，並在一定程度上受到再保險交易和 DAC 佣金調整的費用補貼的推動。就全年而言，我們預計最終費用率將達到 20% 至 22% 的低端。以日圓計算的調整後淨投資收入成長了 7.2%，因為我們以美元計價的投資和相關有利的外匯以及我們的另類投資組合的回報率上升，更符合我們的長期回報預期。這被再保險引起的資產轉移所抵銷。

In the quarter, we reduced our FX forwards and increased FX put options notional, leading to lower run rate hedge costs and a more efficient use of our investment risk capital. The pretax margin for Japan in the quarter was 32.8%, up 350 basis points year-over-year, a very good result for the quarter.

本季度，我們減少了外匯遠期合約，增加了名目外匯看跌期權，從而降低了運行利率對沖成本，並更有效地利用了我們的投資風險資本。日本本季稅前利潤率為 32.8%，較去年同期成長 350 個基點，該季度業績非常好。

Turning to U.S. results, net earned premium was up 3.2%. Persistency increased 80 basis points year-over-year to 78.7%. This is a function of poor persistency quarters falling out of the metric and stabilization across numerous product categories, especially group voluntary benefits. Our total benefit ratio came in lower than expected at 35.9%, a full 890 basis points lower than Q3 2022. We estimate that the remeasurement gains impacted the benefit ratio by 12.1 percentage points in the quarter. Claims utilization remains subdued. And as we incorporate more recent experience into our reserve models, we have released some reserves.

就美國業績而言，淨賺保費成長了 3.2%。持續性年增 80 個基點，達到 78.7%。這是由於許多產品類別（尤其是團體自願福利）的持續性不佳季度超出了指標和穩定性。我們的總福利比率低於預期，為 35.9%，比 2022 年第三季足足低了 890 個基點。我們估計，重新計量收益對該季度的福利比率影響了 12.1 個百分點。索賠利用率仍然低迷。當我們將更多最新經驗納入我們的儲備模型時，我們釋放了一些儲備。

For the full year, we now estimate our benefit ratio to be materially below our outlook range of 47% to 50%. Excluding remeasurement gains, however, we are tracking well within the 47% to 50% outlook range. Our expense ratio in the U.S. was 40.6%, up 70 basis points year-over-year. This includes a 190 basis point impact from a software intangibles write-down. Adjusting for this write-down, we are trending in the right direction. Our growth initiatives, group life and disability, network dental and vision and direct-to-consumer increased our total expense ratio by 330 basis points. We would expect this impact to decrease over time as these businesses grow to scale and improve their profitability.

對於全年，我們現在估計我們的福利比率將大大低於我們 47% 至 50% 的預期範圍。然而，如果不包括重新衡量的收益，我們的前景很好地追蹤在 47% 至 50% 的範圍內。我們在美國的費用率為40.6%，較去年同期上升70個基點。這包括軟體無形資產減記帶來的 190 個基點的影響。根據這次減記調整，我們正朝著正確的方向發展。我們的成長計劃、團體人壽和殘疾、網路牙科和視力以及直接面向消費者的計劃使我們的總費用率增加了 330 個基點。我們預計，隨著這些企業規模的擴大和獲利能力的提高，這種影響會隨著時間的推移而減少。

For the full year, we now expect our expense ratio to come in slightly above our outlook range of 37% to 40%. Adjusted net investment income in the U.S. was up 13%, mainly driven by higher yields on both our fixed and floating rate portfolios and variable investment income in the quarter more in line with long-term return expectations. Profitability in the U.S. segment was solid with a pretax margin of 28.8%, driven primarily by the remeasurement gains from unlocking.

對於全年，我們現在預計費用率將略高於我們 37% 至 40% 的預期範圍。美國調整後淨投資收入成長 13%，主要是由於我們的固定利率和浮動利率投資組合收益率上升，以及本季可變投資收入更符合長期回報預期。美國業務的獲利能力穩健，稅前利潤率為 28.8%，主要得益於解鎖帶來的重新計量收益。

As you know, the commercial real estate markets are going through the worst cycle in decades, especially in the office subsector. We're seeing most property values quoted down 25% to 40%, but some distressed situations are driving market values down as much as 60%, far exceeding the 35% to 40% declines of the financial crisis. Our total commercial real estate watch list remains approximately $1 billion, with around 2/3 of these in active foreclosure proceedings. As a result of these current low valuation marks, we increased our CECL reserves associated with these loans by $34 million this quarter.

如您所知，商業房地產市場正在經歷幾十年來最糟糕的周期，尤其是辦公室細分行業。我們看到大多數房產的報價下跌了 25% 至 40%，但一些困境導致市場價值下跌高達 60%，遠超過金融危機時 35% 至 40% 的跌幅。我們的商業房地產觀察名單總額仍約為 10 億美元，其中約 2/3 處於活躍的止贖程序中。由於目前估值較低，我們本季將與這些貸款相關的 CECL 準備金增加了 3,400 萬美元。

We also moved 2 properties into real estate owned, which resulted in a $53 million write-down. We do not believe the current distressed market is indicative of the true intrinsic economic value of the underlying properties currently undergoing a foreclosure process. We continue to believe our ability to take ownership of these quality buildings and manage them through this cycle will allow us to maximize our recoveries.

我們也將 2 處房產轉為自有房地產，導致減記 5,300 萬美元。我們認為，目前的低迷市場並不代表目前正在取消抵押品贖回權過程中的相關房產的真正內在經濟價值。我們仍然相信，我們擁有這些優質建築並在這個週期中管理它們的能力將使我們能夠最大限度地提高恢復率。

In our Corporate segment, we recorded a pretax loss of $49 million, which is somewhat smaller than a year ago, primarily due to our reinsurance transaction. Adjusted net investment income was $8 million lower than last year due to an increased volume of tax credit investments. Higher rates began to earn in and amortized hedge income increased. These tax credit investments impacted the corporate net investment income line for U.S. GAAP purposes negatively by $64 million with an associated credit to the tax line. The net impact to our bottom line was a positive $3.8 million in the quarter. To date, these investments are performing well and in line with expectations.

在我們的企業部門，我們錄得 4,900 萬美元的稅前虧損，略低於一年前，主要是因為我們的再保險交易。由於稅收抵免投資量增加，調整後的淨投資收入比去年減少了 800 萬美元。利率開始上升，攤銷對沖收入增加。這些稅收抵免投資對美國公認會計準則下的企業淨投資收入線產生了 6,400 萬美元的負面影響，並對稅收線進行了相關抵免。本季對我們利潤的淨影響為 380 萬美元。迄今為止，這些投資表現良好，符合預期。

We are continuing to build out our reinsurance platform, and I'm pleased with the outcome and performance. In Q4, we intend to execute another tranche with similar structure and economics to our first transaction from January this year. Our capital position remains strong, and we ended the quarter with an SMR above 1,000% in Japan. And our combined RBC, while not finalized, we estimate to be greater than 650%.

我們正在繼續建造我們的再保險平台，我對結果和表現感到滿意。在第四季度，我們打算執行另一筆交易，其結構和經濟性與今年 1 月的第一筆交易類似。我們的資本狀況依然強勁，本季結束時，我們在日本的 SMR 高於 1,000%。我們的綜合 RBC 雖然尚未最終確定，但我們估計會超過 650%。

Unencumbered holding company liquidity stood at $3.3 billion, $1.6 billion above our minimum balance. These are strong capital ratios which we actively monitor, stress and manage to withstand credit cycles as well as external shocks. U.S. stat impairments were $4 million and Japan FSA impairment's JPY 2.9 billion or roughly $20 million. This is well within our expectations and with limited impact to both earnings and capital. Leverage remains at a comfortable 18.8%, just below our leverage corridor of 20% to 25%. The decline in the quarter is primarily driven by the weakening yen. As we hold approximately 2/3 of our debt denominated in yen, our leverage will fluctuate with movements in the yen-dollar rate. This is intentional and part of our enterprise hedging program, protecting the economic value of Aflac Japan in U.S. dollar terms.

未支配的控股公司流動性為 33 億美元，比我們的最低餘額高出 16 億美元。我們積極監控、強調並設法抵禦信貸週期和外部衝擊的強大資本比率。美國的統計減損為 400 萬美元，日本 FSA 的減損為 29 億日元，約 2,000 萬美元。這完全在我們的預期之內，對收益和資本的影響有限。槓桿率保持在舒適的 18.8%，略低於我們 20% 至 25% 的槓桿區間。本季的下降主要是由於日圓疲軟造成的。由於我們持有約 2/3 的債務以日圓計價，因此我們的槓桿率將隨著日圓兌美元匯率的變動而波動。這是我們有意為之的，也是我們企業對沖計劃的一部分，旨在保護 Aflac Japan 以美元計算的經濟價值。

We repurchased $700 million of our own stock and paid dividends of $248 million in Q3, offering good relative IRR on these capital deployments. We will continue to be flexible and tactical in how we manage the balance sheet and deploy capital in order to drive strong risk-adjusted ROE with a meaningful spread to our cost of capital. Thank you. I will now hand the call back to David to begin Q&A.

我們在第三季回購了 7 億美元的自有股票，並支付了 2.48 億美元的股息，為這些資本部署提供了良好的相對 IRR。我們將繼續在管理資產負債表和部署資本方面保持靈活和戰術性，以推動強勁的風險調整後淨資產收益率，並顯著降低我們的資本成本。謝謝。我現在將把電話轉回給大衛以開始問答。

Thank you, Max. (Operator Instructions) We will now take the first question.

謝謝你，麥克斯。 （操作員說明）我們現在回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Tom Gallagher with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Tom Gallagher。

Dan, wanted to start with your comment about succession planning and having several strong candidates. Should we take that to mean you won't be looking to do an outside search to replace Fred? And are you looking to replace Fred in the COO role? A little bit of color on what you're thinking overall there.

丹，首先想談談您對繼任計劃和幾位強有力的候選人的評論。我們是否應該認為這意味著您不會尋求外部尋找來替代弗雷德？您是否希望取代 Fred 擔任營運長？為你的整體想法添加一點色彩。

Sure. First, I would say that you have to understand that one of the reasons that we created the Chief Operating Officer and also for Fred to go to Japan, part of it was due to the COVID period of time and that we had a situation where with COVID, we wanted more interaction with Japan. And so Fred was willing to go over there and do that. And that was very helpful to us. And we continue to rotate people over to Japan and from Japan to the United States. And it's -- for example, Steve Beaver, who you probably know has been around a long time, will be working with him.

當然。首先，我想說，你必須明白，我們設立首席營運長以及弗雷德去日本的原因之一，部分原因是由於新冠疫情期間，我們遇到了這樣的情況：新冠疫情期間，我們希望與日本有更多互動。所以弗雷德願意去那裡做那件事。這對我們非常有幫助。我們繼續將人員輪調到日本，然後從日本輪調到美國。例如，史蒂夫·比弗 (Steve Beaver)，你可能知道他已經存在很長時間了，他將與他一起工作。

As far as how and what will evolve, these decisions ultimately come from the Board. I think there's always 2 ways to look at transition and what would take place would be the broadness of something happening and then well it was structured. So we work with the concept that this will be planned over a long period of time and we've had internal candidates. It's always been my preference that it'd be internal candidates because of the Japanese operation and the uniqueness that we have there.

至於如何發展以及發展什麼，這些決定最終來自董事會。我認為總是有兩種方法來看待轉變，將會發生的事情將是發生的事情的廣泛性，然後它是結構化的。因此，我們的工作理念是，這將在很長一段時間內進行規劃，並且我們已經有了內部候選人。由於日本的業務和我們在那裡的獨特性，我一直傾向於內部候選人。

Saying that, I would say the Board would -- the Corporate Governance Committee specifically and then the full Board would be reviewing every aspect to make sure you have the best person for the job. And so we would also take that into consideration as we're moving forward. As I said in my comments, I'm enjoying life. I'm enjoying working with the company and want to continue to do so. At the same time, these adjustments of people retiring and moving on happens, and I've been around to see a lot of them. But I think there's a little element of pride that keeps me around because of the family. And frankly, I just enjoy doing it.

話雖如此，我想說董事會將——特別是公司治理委員會，然後整個董事會將審查各個方面，以確保擁有最適合這項工作的人選。因此，在我們前進的過程中，我們也會考慮到這一點。正如我在評論中所說，我很享受生活。我很享受與公司的合作，並希望繼續這樣做。同時，人們退休和繼續生活的這些調整也在發生，我看過很多這樣的調整。但我認為有一點自豪感讓我因為家庭而留在身邊。坦白說，我只是喜歡這樣做。

So I look forward to working with these people. There are several that are on the horizon. We continue to add new people that have potential so I'm encouraged about that. And I think we're in a strong position. And I think this quarter sent a signal of how strong we are, managerially-wise, and we'll continue to do that.

所以我期待與這些人合作。有幾個即將出現。我們不斷增加有潛力的新人，所以我對此感到鼓舞。我認為我們處於有利地位。我認為本季發出了一個信號，表明我們在管理方面有多強大，我們將繼續這樣做。

Got you. And just an operational question for my follow-up. Max, can you comment on what's behind the bigger reserve release in the U.S. and if there's a go-forward earnings impact associated with that? I would have thought there might have been a bigger benefit coming from Japan, just given how strong and this efficiency of margins there are. So any -- maybe any color comparing and contrasting how the actuarial review stacked up U.S. versus Japan?

明白你了。這只是我後續行動的操作問題。馬克斯，您能否評論一下美國更大的準備金釋放背後的原因以及是否會對未來的盈利產生影響？我以為日本可能會帶來更大的利益，考慮到日本的利潤率有多強勁和效率。那麼，也許有任何顏色比較和對比精算審查如何對美國與日本進行比較嗎？

Thank you, Tom. So obviously, this is the first year we're running on an LDTI basis, and the third quarter is when we do the unlockings, including prospective unlockings. When you think about it, if you go back and look at the last couple of years and you see the morbidity trends and also trends in hospitalization and outpatient treatment, and you compare and contrast Japan and the United States, in the U.S., we shut down a lot more than what you ended up doing in Japan as it relates to how people went to the hospital and how people changed their behavior. And that is coming through in our morbidity experience.

謝謝你，湯姆。顯然，這是我們在 LDTI 基礎上運行的第一年，第三季度是我們進行解鎖（包括預期解鎖）的時候。當你思考這個問題時，如果你回顧過去幾年，你會看到發病率趨勢以及住院和門診治療的趨勢，然後比較和對比日本和美國，在美國，我們關閉比你最終在日本所做的事情要少得多，因為這與人們如何去醫院以及人們如何改變他們的行為有關。這就是我們的發病經驗中所體現的。

So we did see, for example, accident hospitalizations, et cetera, drop a lot more in the United States than what you saw in Japan. And that was simply a factor of the COVID virus had a much more significant spread in the U.S. than what it did have in Japan. In Japan, you really had a big spike in the third quarter of 2022. But outside of that, it was a significantly lower spread than what we had in the U.S. And that is why you're now seeing that having a much more pronounced impact on the morbidity experience that is feeding into our actuarial models that is then leading to the outcome that you saw this quarter.

因此，我們確實看到，例如，美國的意外住院率等下降幅度比日本大得多。這只是新冠病毒在美國傳播範圍比在日本傳播範圍大得多的一個因素。在日本，2022 年第三季確實出現了大幅成長。但除此之外，它的價差明顯低於美國的價差，這就是為什麼你現在看到它產生了更明顯的影響發病率經驗正在輸入我們的精算模型，然後導致您在本季看到的結果。

Our next question will come from Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾。

So Fred, I'm sure we'll be dealing with you a little bit more over the next year, but good luck in the future. I had, first, a question on just any updates you have on the potential tri-agency rules. And in sort of the worst-case scenario, what are the products that are in scope and what could be the impact on your business, assuming that the industry does not get any concessions from the rule as it's initially written?

所以弗雷德，我相信明年我們會更多地與你打交道，但祝你未來好運。首先，我想問一下你們對潛在的三機構規則的最新情況。在最壞的情況下，假設該行業沒有從最初制定的規則中獲得任何讓步，那麼哪些產品屬於範圍內的產品，以及可能對您的業務產生什麼影響？

This is Virgil Miller from the U.S. I'll take that question for you. So we continue to advocate on behalf of our policyholders to provide them the protection when they need it most. The comment period is closed, but you can see and review our comments out there as well as others. I'll just say that we saw no impact in the third quarter to our sales. If you think about it, our hospital indemnity product could be 1 that's impacted. We had relatively flat sales in third quarter.

我是來自美國的維吉爾·米勒（Virgil Miller），我來回答你這個問題。因此，我們繼續代表我們的保單持有人倡導在他們最需要的時候為他們提供保障。評論期已關閉，但您可以查看並查看我們以及其他人的評論。我只想說，我們第三季的銷售沒有受到影響。如果您考慮一下，我們的醫院賠償產品可能會受到影響。第三季我們的銷售額相對持平。

But you've heard Dan mentioned in his comments about our cancer insurance protection plan. We saw our cancer sales up in the third quarter. I would say this also that remember, one of the considerations as part of the proposal is around pretax implications. Aflac has been selling, we were selling our policies without those pretax benefits long before it actually occurred years ago. So I think we'll be positioned well even if the rule were to pass.

但您已經聽到丹在評論中提到了我們的癌症保險保障計劃。我們看到第三季的癌症銷售額有所成長。我想說的是，請記住，作為提案一部分的考慮因素之一是稅前影響。 Aflac 一直在銷售，早在幾年前真正發生之前，我們就在銷售沒有這些稅前福利的保單。因此，我認為即使該規則獲得通過，我們也會處於有利位置。

Let me make 1 other comment. I was in Washington for 3 days about 3 weeks ago and met with probably 18 senators and congressmen to just see their positions on it. I want to go back to the pretax situation that Virgil was talking about because it was an anomaly. What actually happened was it ended up being passed. And we, as a company back 20-something years ago, we didn't sell pretax for the first 2 years because the Congress said it was a mistake and it was never really meant to happen.

讓我再發表 1 則評論。大約 3 週前，我在華盛頓待了 3 天，會見了大約 18 名參議員和國會議員，以了解他們對此的立場。我想回到維吉爾所說的稅前情況，因為這是一個異常現象。實際發生的事情是它最終被通過了。作為一家 20 多年前的公司，我們在前兩年沒有出售稅前產品，因為國會表示這是一個錯誤，而且從來沒有真正發生過。

And so once it was in the bill, then when they tried to take it, they thought about taking it out, there would -- it looked like it was a pretax. If they took it out, it became a tax on the average American. And you take, for example, a school teacher that has come down with cancer to, all of a sudden, say you're going to tax their benefits will not sit well with the contingency of people that they deal with. And so we were able to talk to a lot of people about it, and we had no feedback that thought that it should be the opposite.

因此，一旦它出現在賬單中，然後當他們試圖將其取出時，他們就會考慮將其取出，看起來就像是稅前。如果他們把它拿出來，那就成了普通美國人的稅。舉例來說，一位患有癌症的學校老師突然說要對他們的福利徵稅，這與他們打交道的人的意外情況並不一致。因此我們能夠與許多人討論這個問題，並且我們沒有收到任何認為情況應該相反的回饋。

Now saying that, we know that this has been submitted by the branch outside Congress through the executive branch, and we've got to handle it and we plan on talking to them. But it is -- it will absolutely be a direct tax. But we sold in that environment. I'm one of the ones -- 1 thing about me being around a long time is I remember a lot of things. And we sold -- I was around when we sold in a pretax environment. In fact, I was in the sales force for 10 years and saw it. And so it's a matter of adjustment no matter what happens. And what I've always said is with change comes opportunity. And so no matter what happens, we're going to find a way to do well in that environment.

現在這麼說，我們知道這是國會以外的部門透過行政部門提交的，我們必須處理它，我們計劃與他們交談。但這絕對是直接稅。但我們是在那種環境下銷售的。我就是其中之一——我待了很長時間的一件事是我記得很多事情。我們出售——當我們在稅前環境中出售時，我就在場。事實上，我在銷售隊伍工作了 10 年，親眼目睹了這一點。因此，無論發生什麼，這都是一個調整的問題。我一直說的是，改變帶來機會。因此，無論發生什麼，我們都會找到一種方法在這種環境中表現出色。

Okay. And if I could ask just 1 more. Your comments on CRE seem fairly negative and the environment is pretty challenging as well. But how do you square the watch list of over $1 billion or around $1 billion with your CECL reserve, which seems pretty modest at around $34 million?

好的。如果我能再問 1 個問題就好了。您對商業房地產的評論似乎相當負面，而且環境也相當具有挑戰性。但是，您如何將超過 10 億美元或大約 ​​10 億美元的觀察名單與您的 CECL 儲備金（約 3,400 萬美元）相匹配？

Jim, this is Brad Dyslin. I'll take that. There's a couple of things behind the relatively modest reserving that you've seen so far compared to that $1 billion watch list. One is the average LTV of the portfolio and the price declines we've seen. What happens when we go through the foreclosure process is we have to mark that asset to the lower of the principal balance of the loan or the value of the asset. So when you're starting at a 60% LTV, you've got a fair amount of cushion before you start to realize losses on that mark.

吉姆，這是布拉德戴斯林。我會接受的。與 10 億美元的觀察名單相比，迄今為止您所看到的相對溫和的儲備背後有幾個原因。一是我們看到的投資組合的平均生命週期價值和價格下降。當我們執行止贖流程時，我們必須將該資產標記為貸款本金餘額或資產價值中的較低者。因此，當您以 60% 的生命週期價值 (LTV) 開始時，在開始實現該目標的損失之前，您就有相當多的緩衝。

The second dynamic at play here is we are still in process on about half of that $1 billion of watch list, which means we are in workout negotiations with the borrower. Those can be very long-lasting, very intense and they can ebb and flow a lot of different directions. Once we get certainty that we expect to foreclose, we have to order a third-party appraisal. Those take time to come in. And as they come in, that's when we end up re-marking our assets. So it's a combination of our relatively conservative LTVs and the fact that we've still got about half that portfolio subject to appraisal.

第二個動態是，我們仍在處理 10 億美元觀察名單中的大約一半，這意味著我們正在與借款人進行談判。這些可能非常持久、非常強烈，並且可以在許多不同的方向上起起落落。一旦我們確定要取消抵押品贖回權，我們必須要求第三方進行評估。這些需要時間才能進入。當它們進入時，我們最終會重新標記我們的資產。因此，這是我們相對保守的生命週期價值和我們仍有大約一半的投資組合需要評估這一事實的組合。

Our next question will come from Ryan Krueger with KBW.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Ryan Krueger。

My first question was on the changes you made to the FX hedging program. And I just wanted to confirm, you had a pretty major decline in the hedge costs in the third quarter versus the last couple of quarters. Just wanted to confirm that, that's a reasonable expectation on the hedge cost going forward for the foreseeable future.

我的第一個問題是關於您對外匯對沖計劃所做的更改。我只是想確認一下，與過去幾季相比，第三季的對沖成本出現了相當大的下降。只是想確認一下，這是對可預見的未來對沖成本的合理預期。

Thank you, Ryan. Yes, I think what you saw in terms of hedge cost for the third quarter, it's a blend of us rolling into our new structure, so it's a mix between the old structure and the new structure. In terms of run rate hedge costs going forward, I do think that the third quarter hedge cost that you saw, it's certainly not going to be higher. It would probably going to, on a run rate basis going forward, be at this level or slightly lower going forward in terms of actual hedge cost.

謝謝你，瑞安。是的，我認為您在第三季的對沖成本方面看到的是，這是我們融入新結構的混合體，因此它是舊結構和新結構的混合體。就未來的運行率對沖成本而言，我確實認為您看到的第三季對沖成本肯定不會更高。在未來的運行利率基礎上，就實際對沖成本而言，未來可能會處於這一水平或略低。

That is obviously subject to capital markets inputs and everything that impacts the cost of a put option and also, to some extent, if we decide to increase our forward exposure in the future as well. So things like the FX volatility, interest rates, et cetera, will come into play here. But in the near future, I would expect our hedge cost to be similar to the third quarter level or slightly lower.

這顯然取決於資本市場的投入以及影響看跌期權成本的一切因素，並且在某種程度上，如果我們決定在未來增加我們的遠期風險敞口。因此，外匯波動、利率等因素都會在這裡發揮作用。但在不久的將來，我預計我們的對沖成本將與第三季的水平相似或略低。

And there's no offset anywhere else, right, that would drop to the bottom line?

而且沒有其他任何地方的抵消，對吧，這會下降到底線？

Sorry, Ryan, I didn't quite catch that. Can you repeat that?

抱歉，瑞安，我沒聽清楚。你可以再說一次嗎？

I just want to -- there's no offset anywhere else that would drop to the bottom line?

我只是想──沒有其他地方的抵銷會下降到底線嗎？

The way to think about this in terms of the P&L, this will drop to the bottom line. When you think about the P&L here, what we have done when we move gradually from using forwards to put options, what happens is that we are now increasing the volatility for small moves in the yen-dollar as it relates to our capital ratios in Japan, i.e., the SMR and ESR.

從損益表的角度來思考這個問題，這將下降到底線。當你考慮這裡的損益表時，當我們逐漸從使用遠期選擇權轉向看跌期權時，我們所做的事情是，我們現在正在增加日元兌美元小幅波動的波動性，因為這與我們在日本的資本比率有關，即 SMR 和 ESR。

So for a strengthening yen or a weakening yen, you're going to see slightly higher volatility in that ratio for small moves. But what the put options give us is that we have dramatically reduced [details]. So any dramatic moves or shock moves in the yen-dollar, we have reduced our risk exposure to those kind of events. And we feel that this is a very good risk reward for us.

因此，對於日圓走強或日圓走弱，您會發現該比率的波動性會因小幅波動而略高。但看跌期權帶給我們的是我們大大減少了[細節]。因此，日圓兌美元的任何劇烈波動或衝擊性波動，我們都減少了此類事件的風險敞口。而且我們覺得這對我們來說是一個非常好的風險回報。

And then on the reinsurance transaction, the transaction you did last year, I think, freed up $900 million of capital. But then I think around half of it or so was retained and then the other half was available for redeployment to shareholders. On this next transaction, would you expect closer to all of it to be available to return to shareholders?

然後在再保險交易方面，我認為你們去年所做的交易釋放了 9 億美元的資本。但我認為其中大約一半被保留，另一半可重新部署給股東。在下一次交易中，您是否期望能夠將全部資金回饋給股東？

We will deploy the capital appropriately in the respective business units, and if we have good opportunities to deploy the capital there, we will do so. If we feel that we have significant surplus capital, it will be moved up to holding company. And the holding company will deploy it in the different sort of capital distributions that the holding company generally does, i.e., dividends, buybacks, et cetera.

我們會把資金適當地配置到各個業務部門，如果有好的機會，我們就會這麼做。如果我們認為我們有大量剩餘資本，它將轉移到控股公司。控股公司會將其部署在控股公司通常進行的不同類型的資本分配中，即股息、回購等。

Our next question will come from Suneet Kamath with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將由 Jefferies 的蘇尼特·卡馬斯 (Suneet Kamath) 提出。

I just wanted to follow up to Tom's question on the U.S. reserve releases. It sounded like some of the benefit here was lower hospitalizations in the U.S. due to COVID. And I just want to understand, are you assuming that kind of that lower level of hospitalization sort of persist going forward? Or are you assuming some sort of reversion to historical trend?

我只是想跟進湯姆關於美國儲備金釋放的問題。聽起來這裡的一些好處是美國因新冠肺炎而住院的人數減少了。我只是想了解，您是否認為這種較低的住院率會持續下去？或者您假設歷史趨勢會出現某種回歸？

Let me kick off on that question, and I would ask Al Riggieri to fill in any blanks and add his color as well. But the fact of the matter is that we have seen lower levels, generally speaking, in terms of hospitalizations come through. And we've also seen changes in the way treatments are being done, i.e. more outpatient treatments as well. So we believe that we have seen a shift in both the way hospitals are operating and also the way individuals are going for their treatments. And we have factored that in to some extent.

讓我開始回答這個問題，我會請 Al Riggieri 填寫任何空白並添加他的顏色。但事實是，總體而言，我們看到住院治療的程度較低。我們也看到治療方式的變化，即更多的門診治療。因此，我們相信，我們已經看到醫院的運作方式以及個人接受治療的方式發生了變化。我們在某種程度上已經考慮到了這一點。

Yes. This is Al Riggieri. Just to add in a little bit on that. Remember, the COVID period dropped all hospital utilization, treatment patterns. Many of that during COVID would have some ups and downs during the period as hospitals had more capacity and people would return and get like elective surgeries and all of that. What we did this year was begin to recognize that 2022 was the first year in the United States where you would say that the pandemic was kind of in the rearview mirror. So we broadened the experience for 2022.

是的。這是阿爾·裡傑裡。只是補充一點。請記住，新冠疫情期間所有醫院使用率和治療模式都下降了。在新冠疫情期間，許多治療都會出現一些起伏，因為醫院的容量更大，人們會返回並接受選擇性手術等所有這些。我們今年所做的就是開始體認到，2022 年是美國第一年，你可以說疫情已經成為過去。因此，我們擴大了 2022 年的經驗。

We did still remove the experience very low experience during COVID period. We brought in the post-COVID period, we called it, for 2022. And as Max was saying, continued to see even in that period in '22, that we did have lower experience. So we've built that into the experience base or updating the assumptions.

我們仍然刪除了新冠疫情期間體驗非常低的體驗。我們引入了後新冠時期（我們稱之為 2022 年）。正如 Max 所說，即使在 22 年的那個時期，我們的經驗仍然較低。因此，我們已將其納入經驗基礎或更新假設。

And I think, Max, you said you factored some of that into your reserve. Is it -- does that mean that if things sort of persist the way they are, that there would be the potential for some more reserve releases down the road?

我想，麥克斯，你說過你將其中的一些因素納入你的儲備中。是不是——這是否意味著，如果事情持續這樣下去，未來可能會有更多儲備釋放？

We believe that we have adequately reflected sort of the new paradigm or the new experience that we're seeing now into our models. Now please remember, these are obviously models. So what that means is that if these trends were to improve further than what we have experienced to date, there is the potential for further unlocking, favorable or negative. It can go the other way as well. We believe that we have reflected it to our best -- the best way we can, given the data that we see. And it's important that we do reflect it to the best way we can. But I also want to make sure that you understand that these are estimates and they can go both ways.

我們相信，我們已經在我們的模型中充分反映了我們現在看到的某種新範式或新經驗。現在請記住，這些顯然是模型。因此，這意味著，如果這些趨勢比我們迄今為止所經歷的進一步改善，則有可能進一步釋放，無論是有利的還是不利的。它也可以走向另一條路。我們相信，根據我們看到的數據，我們已經盡力反映了這一點——盡我們所能的最佳方式。重要的是，我們必須以最好的方式反映它。但我也想確保您了解這些只是估計值，並且可以是雙向的。

Yes. No, that makes sense. My other 1 is on Japan and the earned premium drop of 1.7% sort of adjusted. I would have thought at some point, the impact of the paid-up policies would sort of have run its course. And I know some of those policies were very long-dated, but I believe that they were sold quite a bit ago. So are we getting closer to the point where that impact is expected to fall off?

是的。不，這是有道理的。我的另外 1 個是日本的，所賺取的保費下降了 1.7%，經過調整。我以為在某個時候，繳清保單的影響就會結束。我知道其中一些保單的有效期很長，但我相信它們很早之前就被出售了。那麼，我們是否已經接近這種影響預計會減弱的時刻了呢？

So when we look forward into the paid-up schedules, you are going to see a little bit of a drop in 2014 -- sorry, 2024, and then a further drop in 2025. And that's where I would say that I would expect us to run more on a normalized basis for paid-up. Keep in mind that the big sales that we had of the WAYS product, they really occurred in the 2012 through 2014 time period, and there was 5-year pay and there were 10-year pay. So when you roll that forward, that's when you see that you get a little bit of a drop off in 2024 and then further in 2025.

因此，當我們展望付費時間表時，您會看到 2014 年略有下降 - 抱歉，2024 年，然後 2025 年進一步下降。這就是我所期望的在正常繳清基礎上運行更多。請記住，我們 WAYS 產品的大銷售確實發生在 2012 年至 2014 年期間，有 5 年期付款，也有 10 年期付款。因此，當你向前滾動時，你會發現 2024 年會出現一點下降，然後在 2025 年會進一步下降。

That being said, paid-up is something that we generally build into our products, both first sector and third sector. But when we -- I wanted to mention 2024 and 2025 because that's when we move into a more normal schedule, and you're not necessarily going to see these more significant year-over-year deviations.

話雖這麼說，付費是我們通常建立在我們的產品中的東西，無論是第一部門還是第三部門。但當我們——我想提到 2024 年和 2025 年時，因為那時我們將進入更正常的時間表，你不一定會看到這些更顯著的同比偏差。

Our next question will come from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

It's Marly on for Alex. I was hoping you could provide a little more color on the Japan Post sales and partnership. It looks like it's been progressing, so I was hoping to hear a little more on this versus the longer-term sales guidance.

瑪麗替亞歷克斯上場。我希望您能提供有關日本郵政銷售和合作夥伴關係的更多資訊。看起來它一直在取得進展，所以我希望聽到更多關於此與長期銷售指導的資訊。

[Interpreted] This is Yoshizumi. I oversee the entire sales in Japan. The sales of our cancer insurance, new cancer insurance Wings and also lump-sum serious disease benefit guider continues to be very strong. We will continue to aim at growth in cancer insurance sales by providing sales support to the sales offices and post offices of Japan Post Company and Japan Post Insurance nationwide, including sales process management and the sharing of good practices. We are also actively working on the training and also developing of the sales agents across all the branches nationwide by sharing good practices and best practices. And we are expecting to have growth in sales even more by having all these activities done in a solid manner. And that's all for me.

[解釋] 這是吉住。我負責日本的整個銷售。我們的癌症保險、新型癌症保險 Wings 以及一次性重疾保險福利指南的銷售仍然非常強勁。我們將繼續為日本郵政公司和日本郵政保險全國的銷售辦事處和郵局提供銷售支持，包括銷售流程管理和分享良好實踐，以實現癌症保險銷售的成長。我們也透過分享良好實踐和最佳實踐，積極致力於全國所有分支機構銷售代理的培訓和發展。我們預計，透過紮實開展所有這些活動，銷售額將進一步成長。這就是我的全部。

Yes. I want to make 1 other comment. We've been waiting for Japan Post to come back for several years now. And we had assurances that they would do that and I'm happy to see it take place. They are our largest shareholder. And so what is good for us is good for them and vice versa. So I believe this is a strong alliance and will continue to be strong as we move forward.

是的。我還想發表另外 1 則評論。我們等待日本郵政的回歸已經好幾年了。我們向他們保證他們會這樣做，我很高興看到它發生。他們是我們最大的股東。因此，對我們有利的事也對他們有利，反之亦然。因此，我相信這是一個強大的聯盟，並將隨著我們的前進而繼續強大。

And then just as a follow-up, if we could turn to capital a little bit, would you mind providing an update on what you view as near-term versus longer-term capital management priorities or capital deployment?

作為後續行動，如果我們可以稍微談談資本，您是否介意提供您認為的近期與長期資本管理優先事項或資本部署的最新情況？

So obviously, the capital ratios in our subsidiaries, they are strong, and that's obviously priority #1 to make sure that we have adequate and strong capital in our operating subsidiaries. And then obviously, we want to move operating cash flow up to the holding company and then deploy it from there. You did see that in the quarter, we bought back $700 million of our own stock. I view that as quite a strong capital deployment. And we also increased the dividend by 19% starting in the first quarter of next year. So overall, the company is generating significant cash flow, and we are deploying significant cash flow as well.

顯然，我們子公司的資本比率很高，這顯然是確保我們營運子公司擁有足夠且強大資本的第一要務。顯然，我們希望將營運現金流轉移到控股公司，然後從那裡部署。你確實看到，在本季度，我們回購了 7 億美元的自有股票。我認為這是一次相當強大的資本部署。從明年第一季開始，我們也將股息提高了 19%。總的來說，公司正在產生大量現金流，我們也在部署大量現金流。

Our next question will come from John P. Barnidge with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將由約翰·P·巴尼奇和派珀·桑德勒提出。

Fred, congrats on the retirement. Question is around Japan and the expense reduction efforts. I know there was a paperless effort and other expense efficiencies. Have you already completed any required software installations or do you have any planned upcoming?

弗雷德，恭喜你退休。問題是圍繞日本和削減開支的努力。我知道有無紙化工作和其他費用效率。您是否已經完成了所有必需的軟體安裝，或者您是否有任何即將進行的計劃？

Why don't I just make a couple of comments on that, and then Koide-san can comment. But what we are focused on in Japan from an efficiency perspective is digitizing the platform. That's the major thrust of what we're looking at, which is a long-term plan of investment followed by returns. And that is a plan to digitize or increase the usage of digital applications away from paper applications, the use of digital self-service where policyholders go online and serve themselves through technology as opposed to inundating our call center and then claims payments or digital claims.

我為什麼不對此發表一些評論，然後小出先生可以發表評論。但從效率的角度來看，我們在日本關注的是平台數位化。這是我們所關注的主要目標，即長期投資計劃和回報。這是一項數位化或增加數位應用程式使用的計劃，遠離紙本申請，使用數位自助服務，投保人上網並透過科技為自己提供服務，而不是淹沒我們的呼叫中心，然後要求付款或數位索賠。

We've been making steady progress on both the digital application front and on the customer self-service, but we are engaged currently in updating those tools. Think of it as no different than your iPhone 1 to iPhone 11. We are updating those tools to modernize them and improve the customer experience. We have been in a proof of concept over the last year and, in fact, have moved those digital adoption rates up. And so with that will come natural efficiencies over time but it will take time. So it's a long-term progress of moving customer and agent experience to digital and away from paper, but that will yield benefits.

我們在數位應用程式方面和客戶自助服務方面都取得了穩步進展，但我們目前正在更新這些工具。將其視為與 iPhone 1 至 iPhone 11 沒有什麼不同。我們正在更新這些工具，以使其現代化並改善客戶體驗。去年我們一直在進行概念驗證，事實上，我們已經提高了數位化採用率。隨著時間的推移，效率自然會提高，但這需要時間。因此，將客戶和座席體驗從紙本轉向數位化是一個長期的進步，但這將會帶來好處。

The claims side of it is more stubborn. And the reason for that has nothing to do with Aflac. It's because the Japanese health care system is a paper-based health care system that requires the exchange of paper forms when one goes to the doctor. That's really requiring a modernization of the health care system in Japan. And interestingly, they actually do have an effort underway to attempt to modernize or digitize the health care system. But until that takes place, our ability to process claims digitally will be somewhat contained. But over time, we expect to improve.

索賠方面則更為頑固。原因與 Aflac 無關。這是因為日本的醫療保健系統是紙本醫療保健系統，就診時需要交換紙本表格。這確實需要日本醫療保健系統的現代化。有趣的是，他們實際上正在努力嘗試實現醫療保健系統的現代化或數位化。但在此之前，我們以數位方式處理索賠的能力將受到一定程度的限制。但隨著時間的推移，我們預計會有所改善。

So what you should expect as investors is that over the long time, we will be increasing that digital adoption. It will yield a lower per policy expense outcome from an administrative standpoint, but it will be over multiple years of slow and steady progress because this is about adoption, it's not about installing software, okay?

因此，作為投資者，您應該期望的是，從長遠來看，我們將增加數位化的採用。從管理的角度來看，這將產生較低的每份保單費用結果，但這將是多年緩慢而穩定的進展，因為這是關於採用，而不是關於安裝軟體，好嗎？

Very helpful. And then on the investment portfolio, those properties you took keys, can you maybe talk about the occupancy rates in those versus the ones that remain on the watch list?

很有幫助。然後，在投資組合方面，您拿走鑰匙的那些房產，您能否談談這些房產與仍在觀察名單上的房產的入住率？

Sure, thank you. The 2 properties that we took back, the current occupancy levels are in the low to mid-50s, which has been pretty stable since we first got involved and did the loan. The occupancy across the portfolio, it does range a fair amount. We've got a few that are below 50%, given the nature of the asset class, the nature of transitional real estate. But for the most part, our averages are right around the 55% to 65%.

當然可以，謝謝。我們收回的兩處房產，目前的入住率在50多歲左右，自從我們第一次介入併貸款以來，入住率一直相當穩定。從整個投資組合的入住率來看，其範圍確實相當大。考慮到資產類別的性質和過渡性房地產的性質，我們有一些低於 50%。但在大多數情況下，我們的平均值大約在 55% 到 65% 左右。

Our next question will come from Wilma Burdis with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題將由威爾瑪·布爾迪斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出。

Is it fair to think that Aflac can rewrite its hospital indemnity policies to comply with the potential DOL-HHS rule without compromising the attractiveness of the product? And has Aflac worked on this? If so, does the burden appear manageable?

認為 Aflac 可以重寫其醫院賠償政策以符合潛在的 DOL-HHS 規則而不損害產品的吸引力是否公平​​？ Aflac 在這方面做了什麼工作嗎？如果是這樣，負擔是否可以控制？

This is Virgil from the U.S. We absolutely are taking precautions to make sure that we prepare just in case the proposal does go through, and we are confident that we can do that. We've been continuing to enhance our benefits while current policies are out there. I think Dan stated earlier, we were clear that we've sold before in an environment without some of the pretax benefits that currently exist, and we're confident we'll be able to do that again.

我是來自美國的 Virgil。我們絕對會採取預防措施，確保做好準備，以防提案獲得通過，而且我們有信心能夠做到這一點。在現行政策出台的同時，我們一直在繼續提高我們的福利。我認為丹早些時候說過，我們很清楚，我們之前在沒有目前存在的一些稅前福利的環境中進行過銷售，並且我們有信心能夠再次做到這一點。

We have a random process here that we are always looking to innovate and reinvent our products and enhance our benefits. We demonstrated that this past year with our cancer enhancements we did that really had no additional cost to our policyholders. So you can expect more of the same related to that.

我們這裡有一個隨機流程，我們始終尋求創新和重塑我們的產品並提高我們的效益。我們證明，去年我們在癌症方面的改進確實沒有為我們的保單持有人帶來額外的費用。所以你可以期待更多與此相關的相同內容。

And then I just want to confirm. I know you guys sort of said it but I just want to make sure that I understand. In the reinsurance deal that you just recently completed, you freed up around $900 million of capital, and it sounds like that could either be used to reinvest or maybe ultimately for shareholder returns.

然後我只想確認一下。我知道你們這麼說，但我只是想確保我理解。在您最近完成的再保險交易中，您釋放了大約 9 億美元的資本，聽起來這些資金要么可以用於再投資，要么最終可以用於股東回報。

Yes. Obviously, our priorities with all the capital that we have is always to deploy it into writing new business and use it in our operating entities. That is where we get generally the best IRR on that capital. If we cannot deploy it in our operating entities, then it will flow up to the holding company.

是的。顯然，我們擁有的所有資本的首要任務始終是將其部署到編寫新業務並將其用於我們的營運實體。這通常是我們獲得該資本的最佳內部報酬率的地方。如果我們不能將其部署在我們的營運實體中，那麼它將流向控股公司。

But it was around $900 million is what you freed up for that?

但你為此騰出了大約 9 億美元？

Yes, that is our estimate, yes.

是的，這就是我們的估計，是的。

Our next question will come from Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

When I think about the commercial loan portfolio, are the properties most at risk, those that have been more recently loaned to or the ones that have a longer vintage in terms of when they were established? And along those lines, when did you cool the deployment of new investment flows into commercial loans?

當我考慮商業貸款組合時，風險最大的是那些最近借出的房產還是那些建立時間較長的房產？沿著這些思路，您什麼時候冷卻了新投資流向商業貸款的部署？

Sure. Thank you, Josh. The loans that we're dealing with now that are on the watch list are those that were made a couple of years ago. The transitional real estate book is our biggest focus area, and that differs from a more traditional CML book in that the maturities are much shorter. They tend to be 3-year fixed maturities with options to extend up to 5, in some cases, up to 7 years based on certain thresholds and the operating metrics being met.

當然。謝謝你，喬許。我們現在正在處理的、在觀察名單上的貸款是幾年前發放的。過渡性房地產書籍是我們最關注的領域，它與更傳統的 CML 書籍不同，因為期限要短得多。它們的固定期限通常為 3 年，並且可以根據某些閾值和所滿足的營運指標延長至 5 年，在某些情況下，最長可達 7 年。

So what we're dealing with now are those maturities predominantly in 2023 and a few in 2024 as obviously, the maturity is coming up and when those loans need to be addressed, either being repaid or if that is not an option, then we get into the workout discussions.

因此，我們現在處理的主要是2023 年到期的貸款，還有一些2024 年到期的貸款，顯然，到期日即將到來，當這些貸款需要解決時，要么償還，要么如果這不是一個選擇，那我們就得到進入鍛鍊討論。

We have really substantially reduced our deployment into the asset class this year. Part of that is the market -- well, not part of it. It is frankly driven by the market. Very much a lack of activity. We're seeing a large bid ask between buyers and sellers. The increase in rates has really put valuations upside down. Buyers are trying to get -- take advantage of the current levels. Sellers are trying to get yesterday's prices, and we're just not seeing a lot of good, solid transactions, and there's a lack of liquidity in the market. So that's really limited our opportunities. And of course, we always adjust our underwriting standards to the current experience, to the current market. So we're being a little bit more difficult in our terms and conditions as well.

今年我們確實大幅減少了對該資產類別的部署。其中一部分是市場——好吧，不是市場的一部分。坦白說，這是由市場驅動的。非常缺乏活動。我們看到買家和賣家之間的出價很大。升息確實使估值發生了倒掛。買家正試圖利用目前的水平。賣家試圖獲得昨天的價格，但我們沒有看到很多良好、穩定的交易，而且市場缺乏流動性。所以這確實限制了我們的機會。當然，我們總是根據目前的經驗和目前的市場調整我們的承保標準。因此，我們的條款和條件也變得更加困難。

And then related, is there any way you can frame the capital consumption or rating agency charge for those 2 properties? What was it before they were converted into wholly-owned properties and what is it now?

然後相關的是，有什麼方法可以確定這兩個房產的資本消耗或評級機構費用嗎？轉為獨資房產之前是啥，現在又是啥？

Yes. So when they move from being a CML to real estate owned, there is a significant uptick in terms of the capital charge associated with that. For us, it's still very small. So if you think about RBC points, it's very -- I would estimate it to be low single digits. And as it relates to SMR, the same applies.

是的。因此，當他們從 CML 轉向擁有房地產時，與之相關的資本費用就會顯著上升。對我們來說，它仍然很小。因此，如果你考慮 RBC 點數，我估計它是低個位數。就 SMR 而言，這同樣適用。

When you then think about the -- you generally should think about the distribution on what balance sheet or capital base if they go into as follow it the same way the size of the investment portfolio is between the 2 segments, i.e., roughly 85% falls into Japan and 15% falls into the U.S.

然後，當您考慮時，您通常應該考慮資產負債表或資本基礎的分佈，如果它們按照投資組合規模在兩個部分之間的相同方式進行分配，即大約下降 85% 15% 流入日本，15%流入美國

Our next question will come from Wes Carmichael with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的韋斯·卡邁克爾。

Just wanted to follow up on capital a bit. Max, I know you said that your first priority is to deploy that within the subs on organic. But to the extent that there's not that opportunity, I just wanted to get your thoughts around potential M&A and given that you've got pretty significant excess at the holdco and subs.

只是想跟進一下資本。麥克斯，我知道你說過你的首要任務是將其部署在有機潛水艇內。但就沒有這樣的機會而言，我只是想了解您對潛在併購的想法，並考慮到您在控股公司和子公司中擁有相當大的過剩資金。

Yes. We -- if you think about what our track record, you have seen what we have done historically. Aflac has not been an acquisitive company. This is a company that is built selling 1 policy at a time. We've done a number of, I would call it, tuck-in acquisitions in the United States to broaden our product portfolio. And we do feel that we are in a good spot in terms of the products that we have to offer in our go-to-market strategy. So at this point, I don't see that we have any holes that need to be filled using M&A.

是的。我們－如果你想想我們的往績記錄，你會看到我們歷史上所做的事情。 Aflac 並不是一家收購型公司。這是一家一次銷售 1 份保單的公司。我們在美國進行了一系列（我稱之為）收購，以擴大我們的產品組合。我們確實認為，就我們的上市策略中必須提供的產品而言，我們處於有利位置。因此，目前我認為我們沒有任何需要透過併購來填補的漏洞。

Got it. And then maybe just a follow-up, on the middle market loan book away from commercial real estate, it seems like that's -- the book yield now is near 11%. So just wondering if you're seeing any terms and any collateral deterioration. And if interest rates remain high for a year or so, like you expect defaults within that portfolio?

知道了。然後也許只是後續行動，在遠離商業房地產的中間市場貸款帳簿上，帳面收益率現在接近 11%。所以只是想知道您是否看到任何條款和任何附帶惡化。如果利率在一年左右的時間內保持高位，就像您預計該投資組合中會出現違約一樣？

Yes. Thank you. So far, we have been extremely pleased with the performance of the middle market loan portfolio. It is, frankly, performing better than we expected, given where we are at this point in the cycle. There are several reasons for that. And that ultimately, it boils down to fundamentals, underwriting and then how we've chosen to build the portfolio. We have a very small average loan size. We have maintained a discipline around only first-lien secured structures. We've kept leverage at a very modest level. We have maintained our use of strong covenants.

是的。謝謝。到目前為止，我們對中間市場貸款組合的表現非常滿意。坦白說，考慮到我們目前所處的周期，它的表現比我們預期的要好。這有幾個原因。最終，它歸結為基本面、承保以及我們如何選擇建立投資組合。我們的平均貸款規模非常小。我們僅圍繞第一留置權安全結構維持紀律。我們將槓桿率保持在非常適度的水平。我們一直使用強有力的契約。

And then ultimately, it's about good businesses, good companies with sound business plans that are seeing good top line growth and have the margins and cash flow, avoiding cyclical companies, and that's really played out. We have built this as our primary below-investment grade portfolio. So we do expect to incur some losses. But relative to the outsized yields we've received, they are really quite modest. And as I said, it is doing better than we expected at this point in the cycle.

最終，這是關於優秀的企業、擁有健全商業計劃的優秀公司，這些公司看到了良好的營收成長，並擁有利潤和現金流，避開了周期性公司，這確實得到了體現。我們已將此作為我們主要的低於投資等級的投資組合。因此，我們確實預計會遭受一些損失。但相對於我們收到的巨額收益，它們確實相當有限。正如我所說，在周期的這個階段，它的表現比我們預期的要好。

Going forward, we're going to have to wait and see just how the macro environment does. It does look like we've got the possibility of a soft or at least a soft-ish landing. And then how quickly rates turn around is something that we're going to watch very closely.

展望未來，我們將不得不拭目以待宏觀環境的變化。看起來我們確實有可能實現軟著陸或至少是軟著陸。我們將密切關注利率變化的速度。

Our next question will come from Joel Hurwitz with Dowling & Partners.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Dowling & Partners 的 Joel Hurwitz。

So RBC is strong at over 650%, well above your 400% target. Can you just talk about plans in managing that down towards the target?

因此，RBC 的表現強勁，超過 650%，遠高於您的 400% 目標。您能談談管理這一目標以實現目標的計劃嗎？

So obviously in the U.S., we are seeing some growth, and we're seeing some growth in lines of business that are driving a little bit more new business strain. And that's why we have, in the pandemic, we wanted to run with a little bit more capital and then coming out of pandemic, we see a little bit higher strain associated with that growth that we are starting to see and expect to see come through.

顯然，在美國，我們看到了一些成長，我們看到業務線的一些成長正在推動更多的新業務壓力。這就是為什麼我們在大流行中希望以更多的資本運行，然後在大流行結束後，我們看到與我們開始看到並期望看到的增長相關的更大的壓力。

That has led us to run with a little bit higher RBC than what -- than the 400%. But we are at a point in time now where I would expect us over the next couple of years to really get down to that 400% level long-term.

這導致我們的 RBC 比 400% 稍高一點。但我們現在正處於一個時間點，我預計我們在未來幾年內能夠真正長期降至 400% 的水平。

Okay. And do you expect that to be driven by the needs for growth or do you expect to actually draw that down with outsized dividends to the holdco?

好的。您是否認為這是由成長需求驅動的，或者您是否希望透過向控股公司派發巨額股息來實際減少成長需求？

The preferred option would be to drive it by growth because that's where we're getting the best returns on our capital by just writing more policies. At the same time, our -- even though we have some lines of business that are consuming a little bit more capital, overall, we're a relatively capital-light business. So given that we're operating at a 650% RBC right now, I don't see that growth alone will necessarily drive us all the way down to 400%. In order to do so, we probably would, over time, need to address our capital base through special dividends, et cetera.

首選的選擇是透過成長來推動它，因為這就是我們透過制定更多保單來獲得最佳資本回報的地方。同時，儘管我們的某些業務線消耗的資本較多，但總體而言，我們是一家資本相對較少的企業。因此，考慮到我們目前的 RBC 率為 650%，我認為單靠成長不一定會導致我們一路下降到 400%。為了做到這一點，隨著時間的推移，我們可能需要透過特別股息等來解決我們的資本基礎問題。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to David Young for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給大衛楊（David Young）發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, Anthony, and thank you all for joining us this morning. While we are not hosting our financial analyst briefing this year, we will be in 2024, but we will also be giving an outlook for 2024 on our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. In the interim, please reach out to the Investor and Rating Agency Relations team if you have any questions, and we look forward to speaking to you then. Everyone, have a great day. Thank you.

謝謝你，安東尼，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。雖然我們今年不會舉辦財務分析師簡報會，但我們將在 2024 年舉辦，但我們也將在 2023 年第四季財報電話會議上對 2024 年進行展望。在此期間，如果您有任何疑問，請聯繫投資者和評級機構關係團隊，我們期待屆時與您交談。大家，祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。

[Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]

[本文字記錄中標記為[已翻譯]的部分是由現場通話中的口譯員朗讀的。]